Arquivo da tag: Mudanças climáticas

Climate change in the media (DISCCRS)

DISCCRS News – October 28, 2014

NEWS

Researchers resolve the Karakoram glacier anomaly, a cold case of climate science – Princeton University Press Release – October 22, 2014 – http://www.princeton.edu/main/news/archive/S41/39/84Q12/

    Related: Snowfall less sensitive to warming in Karakoram than in Himalayas due to a unique seasonal cycle – Nature Geoscience – October 12, 2014 – http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2269.html

    Collaboration on this paper with two of the authors is the result of discussions begun at the DISCCRS VII symposium. Lead author Sarah Kapnick, a DISCCRS VII Symposium alum, is a postdoctoral research fellow at Princeton University. Moet Ashfaq is also a DISCCRS VII symposium alum, and is currently a computational climate scientist at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

Events that mark Arctic warming – Guardian – October 26, 2014 – http://www.theguardian.com/news/2014/oct/26/weatherwatch-arctic-warming-northwest-passage-siberia

Arctic melt means more severe winters likely – for now – New Scientist – October 27, 2014 – http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26457-arctic-melt-means-more-severe-winters-likely–for-now.html#.VE7PACiv1sQ

    Related: Cold Winters in Europe, Asia Linked to Sea Ice Decline – Climate Central – October 26, 2014 – http://www.climatecentral.org/news/cold-winters-in-europe-asia-linked-to-arctic-sea-ice-decline-18239

    Related: Global warming has doubled risk of harsh winters in Eurasia, research finds – Guardian – October 26, 2014 – http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/26/global-warming-has-doubled-risk-harsh-winters-eurasia-research-finds

UN expert: Keep up hope amid climate change battle – Associated Press – October 27, 2014 – http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ea6b7bb91beb401a85fd8defbcb18826/un-envoy-keep-hope-amid-climate-change-battle

UN climate change draft sees risks of irreversible damage – Reuters – October 26, 2014 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/26/climatechange-report-idUSL6N0SK0LQ20141026

EU leaders agree to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030 – Guardian – October 24, 2014 – http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/24/eu-leaders-agree-to-cut-greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-40-by-2030

    Related: EU strikes compromise to set new climate target – Reuters – October 24, 2014 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/24/us-eu-summit-climatechange-idUSKCN0IB1PB20141024

    Related: EU emissions target isn’t as ambitious as it seems – New Scientist – October 24, 2014 – http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26446-eu-emissions-target-isnt-as-ambitious-as-it-seems.html#.VE7PCCiv1sQ

    Related: Europe Reaches Climate Deal, Sends Message – Climate Central – October 24, 2014 – http://www.climatecentral.org/news/eu-climate-deal-2030-18228

    Related: EU climate change goal pits green business against industry – Reuters – October 24, 2014 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/24/eu-summit-climatechange-reaction-pix-tvu-idUSL6N0SJ3CE20141024

Innovations in Energy Storage Provide Boost for Renewables – Yale Environment 360 – October 27, 2014 – http://e360.yale.edu/feature/innovations_in_energy_storage_provide_boost_for_renewables/2820/

Great Barrier Reef protection plan ‘ignores the threat of climate change’ – Guardian – October 27, 2014 – http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/27/great-barrier-reef-protection-plan-ignores-threat-climate-change

Recently discovered microbe is key player in climate change – University of Arizona Press Release (via AAAS EurekAlert) – October 22, 2014 – http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2014-10/uoa-rdm102014.php

FORUM

Rick Piltz Dies at 71; Quit Bush White House Over Climate Policy – New York Times – October 23, 2014 – By Douglas Martin – http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/24/us/politics/rick-s-piltz-firebrand-on-climate-dies-at-71-.html?_r=0

    Related: Whistleblower Who Exposed White House Tampering with Climate Science Dies – Scientific American Blog – October 22, 2014 – By Paul Thacker – http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2014/10/22/whistleblower-who-exposed-white-house-tampering-with-climate-science-dies/

U.S. needs to invest in Arctic ships, technology to prepare for climate change: envoy – Reuters – October 21, 2014 – By Andrea Shalal and Ayesha Rascoe – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/21/us-usa-arctic-navy-climatechange-idUSKCN0IA2S520141021

Solving Energy Poverty Need Not Trash the Atmosphere – ClimateWire (via Scientific American) – October 24, 2014 – By Lisa Friedman – http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/solving-energy-poverty-need-not-trash-the-atmosphere/

2014 Arctic sea ice extent – 6th lowest in millennia – Climate Consensus – the 97% blog (Guardian) – October 21, 2014 – By Dana Nuccitelli – http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/oct/20/2014-arctic-sea-ice-extent-6th-lowest-in-millennia

Building an Ark for the Anthropocene (New York Times)

CreditJason Holley

WE are barreling into the Anthropocene, the sixth mass extinction in the history of the planet. A recent study published in the journal Science concluded that the world’s species are disappearing as much as 1,000 times faster than the rate at which species naturally go extinct. It’s a one-two punch — on top of the ecosystems we’ve broken, extreme weather from a changing climate causes even more damage. By 2100, researchers say, one-third to one-half of all Earth’s species could be wiped out.

As a result, efforts to protect species are ramping up as governments, scientists and nonprofit organizations try to build a modern version of Noah’s Ark. The new ark certainly won’t come in the form of a large boat, or even always a place set aside. Instead it is a patchwork quilt of approaches, including assisted migration, seed banks and new preserves and travel corridors based on where species are likely to migrate as seas rise or food sources die out.

The questions are complex. What species do you save? The ones most at risk? Charismatic animals, such as lions or bears or elephants? The ones most likely to survive? The species that hold the most value for us?

One initiative, the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services formed in 2012 by the governments of 121 countries, aims to protect and restore species in wild areas and to protect species like bees that carry out valuable ecosystem service functions in the places people live. Some three-quarters of the world’s food production depends primarily on bees.

“We still know very little about what could or should be included in the ark and where,” said Walter Jetz, an ecologist at Yale involved with the project. Species are being wiped out even before we know what they are.

Another project, the EDGE of Existence, run by the Zoological Society of London, seeks to protect the most unusual wildlife at highest risk. These are species that evolved on their own for so long that they are very different from other species. Among the species the project has helped to preserve are the tiny bumblebee bat and the golden-rumped elephant shrew.

While the traditional approach to protecting species is to buy land, preservation of the right habitat can be a moving target, since it’s not known how species will respond to a changing climate.

To complete the maps of where life lives, scientists have enlisted the crowd. A crowdsourcing effort called the Global Biodiversity Information Facility identifies and curates biodiversity data — such as photos of species taken with a smartphone — to show their distribution and then makes the information available online. That is especially helpful to researchers in developing countries with limited budgets. Another project, Lifemapper, at the University of Kansas Biodiversity Institute, uses the data to understand where a species might move as its world changes.

“We know that species don’t persist long in fragmented areas and so we try and reconnect those fragments,” said Stuart L. Pimm, a professor of conservation at Duke University, and head of a nonprofit organization called SavingSpecies. One of his group’s projects in the Colombian Andes identified a forest that contains a carnivorous mammal that some have described as a cross between a house cat and a teddy bear, called anolinguito, new to science. Using crowd-sourced data, “we worked with local conservation groups and helped them buy land, reforest the land and reconnect pieces,” Dr. Pimm says.

Coastal areas, especially, are getting scrutiny. Biologists in Florida, which faces a daunting sea level rise, are working on a plan to set aside land farther inland as a reserve for everything from the MacGillivray’s seaside sparrow to the tiny Key deer.

To thwart something called “coastal squeeze,” a network of “migratory greenways” is envisioned so that species can move on their own away from rising seas to new habitat. “But some are basically trapped,” said Reed F. Noss, a professor of conservation biology at the University of Central Florida who is involved in the effort, and they will most likely need to be picked up and moved. The program has languished, but Amendment 1, on the ballot this November, would provide funding.

One species at risk is the Florida panther. Once highly endangered, with just 20 individuals left, this charismatic animal has come back — some. But a quarter or more of its habitat is predicted to be under some three feet of water by 2100. Males will move on their own, but females will need help because they won’t cross the Caloosahatchee River. Experts hope to create reserves north of the river, and think at some point they will have to move females to new quarters.

Protecting land between reserves is vital. The Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative, known as Y2Y, would protect corridors between wild landscapes in the Rockies from Yellowstone National Park to northern Canada, which would allow species to migrate.

RESEARCHERS have also focused on “refugia,” regions around the world that have remained stable during previous swings of the Earth’s climate — and that might be the best bet for the survival of life this time around.

A section of the Driftless Area encompassing northeastern Iowa and southern Minnesota, also known as Little Switzerland, has ice beneath some of its ridges. The underground refrigerator means the land never gets above 50 or so degrees and has kept the Pleistocene snail, long thought extinct, from disappearing there. Other species might find refuge there as things get hot.

A roughly 250-acre refugia on the Little Cahaba River in Alabama has been called a botanical lost world, because of its wide range of unusual plants, including eight species found nowhere else. Dr. Noss said these kinds of places should be sought out and protected.

Daniel Janzen, a conservation ecologist at the University of Pennsylvania who is working to protect large tracts in Costa Rica, said that to truly protect biodiversity, a place-based approach must be tailored to the country. A reserve needs to be large, to be resilient against a changing climate, and so needs the support of the people who live with the wild place and will want to protect it. “To survive climate change we need to minimize the other assaults, such as illegal logging and contaminating water,” he said. “Each time you add one of those you make it more sensitive to climate change.”

The Svalbard Global Seed Vault, beneath the permafrost on an island in the Arctic Ocean north of mainland Norway, preserves seeds from food crops. Frozen zoos keep the genetic material from extinct and endangered animals. The Archangel Ancient Tree Archive in Michigan, meanwhile, founded by a family of shade tree growers, has made exact genetic duplicates of some of the largest trees on the planet and planted them in “living libraries” elsewhere — should something befall the original.

In 2008, Connie Barlow, a biologist and conservationist, helped move an endangered conifer tree in Florida north by planting seedlings in cooler regions. Now she is working in the West. “I just assisted in the migration of the alligator juniper in New Mexico by planting seeds in Colorado,” she said. “We have to. Climate change is happening so fast and trees are the least capable of moving.”

Antropoceno, Capitaloceno, Cthulhuceno: o que caracteriza uma nova época? (ClimaCom)

28/10/2014

A proposta de formalização de uma nova época da Terra levanta questões sobre utilidade, responsabilidade e formas alternativas de narrar a história do mundo em que vivemos

Por Daniela Klebis

Os impactos das ações humanas sobre o planeta nos últimos 200 anos têm sido tão profundos que podem justificar a definição de nova época para a Terra, o Antropoceno. No último dia 17 de outubro, a Comissão Internacional sobre Estratigrafia (ICS, na sigla inglês), reuniu-se em Berlim para dar continuidade às discussões sobre a formalização dessa nova época terrena, cuja decisão final será votada somente em 2016. A despeito dos processos burocráticos, o termo já foi informalmente assimilado por filósofos, arqueólogos, historiadores, ambientalistas e cientistas do clima e, nesse meio, o debate segue, para além da reunião de evidências físicas, no sentido de compreender sua utilidade: estamos prontos para assumir a época dos humanos?

A história da Terra se divide em escalas de tempo geológicas, que são definidas pela ICS, com sede em Paris, na França. Essas escalas de tempo começam com grandes espaços de tempos chamados éons, que se dividem em eras (como a Mezozóica), e então em períodos (Jurássico, Neogeno),  épocas e por fim, em idades. Quem acenou pela primeira vez a necessidade de definir uma nova época, baseada nos impactos indeléveis das ações humanas sobre a paisagem terrestre foi o químico atmosférico Paul J. Crutzen, prêmio Nobel de química em 1995. Cutzen sugeriu o termo Antropoceno durante o encontro  do Programa Internacional de Geofera e Biosfera (IGBP, na sigla em inglês), no México, em 2000. O evento tinha por objetivo discutir os problemas do Holoceno, a época em que nos encontramos há cerca de 11700 anos,desde o fim da era glacial.

A hipótese sustentada pelos defensores da nova denominação baseia-se nas observações sobre as mudanças iniciadas pelo homem sobre o ambiente desde 1800, cujas evidências geológicas  possuem impacto a  longo prazo na história da Terra.  E quais são as evidências que podem justificar a adoção do termo Antropoceno?  “O que nós humanos mais fizemos nesses dois séculos foi criar coisas que não existiram pelos 4,5 bilhões de anos da história da Terra”, denuncia o geólogo Jan Zalasiewicz, presidente do grupo de trabalho sobre o Antropoceno da ICS, em colóquio em Sidney, na Autrália, em março deste ano.

antropoceno1

Minerais sintéticos, fibras de carbono, plásticos, concreto, são alguns exemplos de novos elementos criados pelo homem. O concreto, um material produzido pela mistura de cimento, areia, pedra e água, vem se espalhando na superfície de nosso planeta a uma velocidade de 2 bilhões de quilômetros por ano, conforme aponta o geólogo.  Abaixo da superfície, escavações em busca de minérios e petróleo já abriram mais de 50 milhões de quilômetros em buracos subterrâneos.

Além das mudanças físicas, a emissão exagerada de dióxido de carbono e outros gases de efeito estufa, resultantes da ação humana, provocam mudanças químicas na atmosfera, como aquecimento global, descongelamento de calotas polares e acifidificação dos oceanos. A biosfera é também analisada, já que mudanças resultantes da perda de habitats, atividades predatórias e invasão de especies também provocam mudanças na composição química e física dos ambientes.

As evidências do impacto da ação humana,que vêm sendo consistentemente apontadas em estudos climáticos, foram reforçadas pelo 5º. Relatório do Painel Intercontinental de Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC), publicado no início do ano, com um consenso de 97% dos cientistas. Mais recentemente, no dia 30 de setembro, um relatório publicado no publicado pela WWF (World Wildlife Fund, em inglês), em parceria com a Sociedade Zoológica de Londres, apontou ainda que, nos últimos 40 anos, 52% da população de animais vertebrados na Terra desapareceu. Ao mesmo tempo, os seres humanos dobraram em quantidade. “Estamos empurrando a biosfera para a sua 6ª. extinção em massa”, alerta Hans-Otto Pörtner, do Instituto Alfred Wegener de Pesquisa Marinha e Polar, em Bremerhaven, Alemanha, e co-autor do capítulo sobre ecossistema do relatório do IPCC publicado nesse ano. Pörtner refere-se às cinco grandes extinções em massa registradas nos últimos 540 milhões de anos, caracterizadas por palentólogos como períodos em que mais de 75% das espécies foram extintas do planeta em um curto intervalo geológico.

“Há 200 anos, a coisas começaram a mudar o suficiente para visivelmente impactar o planeta: a população cresceu, assim como as emissões de CO2”, destaca Zalasiwicz. Segundo ele, o uso de energia cresceu 90 vezes entre 1800 e 2010, e já queimamos cerca de 200 milhões de anos de fósseis, entre carvão, óleo e gás. “Os humanos correspondem a 1/3 de todos os vertebrados da terra. Mas a dominação sem precedentes sobre todos os outros seres vivos, faz dessa a er a humana”, conclui.

Eileen Crist pesquisadora do Departamento de Ciências e Tecnologia na Sociedade, no Virginia Tech, no EUA, desafia a escolha do termo, defendendo que o discurso do Antropoceno deixa de questionar a soberania humana para propor, ao contrário, abordagens tecnológicas que poderiam tornar o domínio humano sustentável. “Ao afirmar a centralidade do homem – tanto como uma força causal quanto como objeto de preocupação – o Antropoceno encolhe o espaço discursivo para desafiar a dominação da biosfera, oferecendo, ao invés disso, um campo técnico-científico para a sua racionalização e um apelo pragmático para nos resignarmos à sua atualidade”, argumenta a pesquidadora em um artigo publicado em 2013.

O Antropoceno, dessa forma, entrelaça uma série de temas na formatação de seu discurso, como, por exemplo, o aumento acelerado da população que chegará a superar os 10 bilhões de habitantes; o crescimento econômico e a cultura de consumo enquanto modelo social dominante; a tecnologia como destino inescapável e, ao mesmo tempo, salvação da vida humana na Terra; e, ainda, o pressuposto de que o impacto humano é natural e contingente da nossa condição de seres providos de inteligência superior. Crist aponta que esse discurso mascara a opção de racionalizar o regime totalitátio do humano no planeta. “Como discurso coeso, ele bloqueia formas alternativas de vida humana na Terra”, indica.

antropoceno2

Relacionalidade

Donna Haraway, professora emérita da Universidade da Califórina em Santa Cruz, EUA, comentou, em participação no Colóquio Os Mil Nomes de Gaia, em setembro, que essa discussão é um dos “modos de buscar palavras que soam muito grandes, porém, não são grandes o suficiente para compreender a continuidade e a precariedade de viver e morrer nessa Terra”. Haraway é também umas das críticas do termo Antropoceno. Segundo ela, o Antropoceno implica um homem individual, que se desenvolve, e desenvolve uma nova paisagem de mundo, estranho a todas as outras formas de vida: uma percepção equivocada de um ser que seria capaz existir sem se relacionar com o resto do planeta. “Devemos compreender que para ser um, devemos ser muitos. Nos tornamos com outros seres”, comenta.

Para Haraway, épreciso, problematizar essa percepção, e endereçar a responsabilidade pelas mudanças, que está justamente no sistema capitalista que criamos. Este sim tem impulsionado a exploração, pelos homens, da Terra: “A história inteira poderia ser Capitaloceno, e não Antropoceno”, diz. Tal percepção, de acordo com a filósofa, pemite-nos resistir ao senso inescapabilidade presente nesse discurso, como Crist mencionou acima. “Estamos cercados pelo perigo de assumir que tudo está acabado, que nada pode acontecer”, diz.

Haraway aponta, entretanto, que é necessário evocar um senso de continuidade (ongoingness,em inglês),a partir de outras possibilidades narrativas e de pensamento.Uma delas, seria o Cthulhuceno, criado pela filósofa. A expressão vem de um conto de H.P.Lovecraft, O chamado de Cthulhu, que fala sobre humanos que têm suas mentes deterioradas quando, em rituais ao deus Cthulhu – uma mistura de homem, dragão e polvo que vive adormecido sob as águas do Pacífico Sul – conseguem vislumbrar uma realidade diferente da que conheciam.  No início da história, o autor norte-americano descreve o seguinte: “A coisa mais misericordiosa do mundo, acho eu, é a incapacidade da mente humana de correlacionar tudo que ela contém”.  A partir desse contexto, Donna Haraway explica que é necessário “desestabilizar mundos de pensamentos, com mundos de pensamentos”. O Cthulhuceno não é sobre adotar uma transcendência, uma ideia de vida ou morte: “trata-se de abraçar a continuidade sinuosa do mundo terreno, no seu passado​​, presente e futuro. Entretanto, tal continuidade implica em assumir que existe um problema muito grande e que ele precisa ser enfrentado. Devemos lamentar o que aconteceu, pois não deveria ter ocorrido. Mas não temos que continuar no mesmo caminho”, sugere.

These Two World Leaders Are Laughing While the Planet Burns Up (New Republic)

OCTOBER 21, 2014

Meet earth’s worst climate villains

By

Canada once had a shot at being the world’s leader on climate change. Back in 2002, our northern neighbors had ratified the Kyoto Protocol, the world’s first treaty that required nations to cut their emissions or face penalties. In 2005, the country hosted an international climate change conference in Montreal, where then-Prime Minister Paul Martin singled out America for its indifference. “To the reticent nations, including the United States, I say this: There is such a thing as a global conscience,” Martin said.

Australia, too, was briefly a success story. The government ratified Kyoto in 2007 and delivered on promises to pass a tax on carbon by 2011. The prime minister that year, Julia Gillard, noted her administration’s priorities to set “Australia on the path to a high-skill, low-carbon future or [leave] our economy to decay into a rusting, industrial museum.”

Today, the two countries are outliers againfor all the wrong reasons.

According to a 2014 Climate Change Performance Index from European groups Climate Action Network Europe and Germanwatch, Canada and Australia occupy the bottom two spots among all 34 countries in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Among the 20 countries with the largest economies (G20), only Saudi Arabia ranked lower than them. Canada and Australia’s records on climate change have gotten so bad, they’ve become the go-to examples for Republicans, like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who don’t think climate change exists.

How did these two nations go from leading the fight against climate change to denying that it even exists?

On the way to his first trip in the U.S., Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott stopped for a full day of talks with Canada Prime Minister Stephen Harper in June. The Sydney Morning Heraldreported that Abbott was in Canada’s capital with the intention of building a “conservative alliance among ‘like-minded’ countries” to try to dismantle global efforts on climate change. At a press conference that day, Harper applauded Abbott’s efforts to gut Australia’s carbon tax. “You’ve used this international platform to encourage our counterparts in the major economies and beyond to boost economic growth, to lower taxes when possible and to eliminate harmful ones, most notably the job-killing carbon tax,” Harper said. He added that “we shouldn’t clobber the economy” by pursuing an emissions trading scheme or a carbon tax.

This is how Canada and Australia’s top leaders frame global warming. The two stress that they will always choose short-term economic gain first, disregarding scientific findings and even the interests of their political allies in the process.The countries’ abrupt shift on climate track conservatives’ rise to a majority in Canada in 2011 and in Australia last year.

In just a few years, conservatives have delivered blow after blow to the nations’ environmental progress. Canada withdrew from Kyoto in 2011 to avoid paying expensive penalties for failing to meet its promise to cut carbon 6 percent over 1990 levels (Canada’s emissions had risen by nearly 30 percent). Harper offered a less ambitious target instead, one that mirrored the U.S.’s commitment cut 17 percent of carbon pollution by 2020. But Canada will miss that target by a long shot, according to environmental groups who point to the aggressive development of the Alberta tar sands oil and expired clean energy subsidies. The commissioner of the Department of Environment and Sustainable Development noted in a recent report that Canada “does not have answers” to most of its environmental concerns. Australia, meanwhile, had the world’s highest emissions per capita in 2012topping even America’s. The government’s mediocre ambition of cutting emissions 5 percent by 2020 won’t happen either: It projects emissions to grow 2 percent a year, according to Inside Climate News.

The hostility toward environmental interests goes even deeper than energy policy. Harper has battled his own scientists, independent journalists, and environmental groups at odds with his views.

Climate scientists have reported that they are unable to speak to press about their own findings, feeling effectively “muzzled” by agencies that want to script talking points for them. In June, a government spokesperson explained that federal meteorologists must speak only “to their area of expertise,” which does not include climate change, according to a government spokesperson. Journalists sometimes face bullying, too. Environmental author Andrew Nikiforuk told ThinkProgress that “a government of thugs” slandered him and shut him out of events. But environmentalists may fare the worst. Seven environmental nonprofits in Canada have accused the Canada Revenue Agency of unfairly targeting them for audits. According to internal documents obtained by The GuardianCanada’s police and Security Intelligence Service identified nonviolent environmental protestslike people who oppose hydrofracking and the Keystone XL tar sands pipelineas “forms of attack” fitting the “number of cases where we think people might be inclined to acts of terrorism.”

Australia, for its part, has downplayed scientific findings. Abbott, along with his Environment Minister Greg Hunt, have rejected any link between extreme weather and global warming. Abbott, who once called the science of climate change “absolute crap,” said last year that UN Climate Chief Christiana Figueres was “talking out of her hat” when saying that rising temperatures were driving more intense and frequent brushfires. “Climate change is real as I have often said and we should take strong action against it but these fires are certainly not a function of climate change,” he argued. Hunt defended his boss, citing Wikipedia as his proof. “I looked up what Wikipedia says for example, just to see what the rest of the world thought, and it opens up with the fact that bushfires in Australia are frequently occurring events during the hotter months of the year. Large areas of land are ravaged every year by bushfires. That’s the Australian experience.” He could have referred to his Department of Environment’s website instead, had it not earlier removed explicit references connecting climate change, heatwaves, and fires.

As the host of the G20 this November, Australia is in an awkward position. Australians have staged protests, while the U.S. and European leaders have pressured Abbott to put climate change on the agenda. He has refused. There’s no room for climate, he says, because the summit is about “economic security” and “the importance of private sector-led growth.”

What’s even more baffling about the rise of climate denial in both countries is that it’s apparently not the popular view in either country. According to the Pew Research Center, the majority of Australians and Canadians say climate change is a major threatas opposed to 40 percent of Americans who say the same.

Of course, the U.S. has reversed itself recently, too. President Barack Obama is making climate change a second-term priority, and has taken steps to cap carbon pollution from power plants. Such initiatives have put the U.S. on track to meet its pledge in Copenhagen in 2009 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 17 percent by 2020. At the same time, China, which faces internal pressure over air pollution, is looking a lot more serious about slowing down pollution; it will begin a national cap-and-trade program in 2016. Even India is redoubling efforts on clean energy, to meet the power needs of its growing population. Half the world plans to put a price on carbon.

It’s true that neither Canada nor Australia has much responsibility for the amount of heat-trapping gasses in the atmosphere. The United States, China, and India make up a combined 49 percent of the world’s carbon emissions in 2013. Canada and Australia, by comparison, emit 3.5 percent of total carbon emissions combined. But the critical requirement for an international climate change agreementwhich negotiatiors will try to hammer out in Paris next yearis that every country big and small make a commitment to greenhouse gas targets. Fortunately, the negligence of two smaller, industrialized countries won’t be the fatal blow to negotiations in Paris. Still, by ducking their own responsibility, Australia and Canada are ignoring their “global conscience”to borrow a former prime minister’s words.

A decade ago, our close allies due north and across the Pacific rightly shamed us on our poor response to climate change. Now, they’ve lost the moral high ground. At the September United Nations Climate Summit, the largest gathering of world leaders yet on the issue, both Abbott and Harper were no-shows. The ministers sent in their place also arrived empty-handed; Australia’s foreign minister suggested that only larger countries should be responsible for more ambitious climate action. Canada Environment Minister Leona Aglukkaq repeated an already-public commitment that Canada would copy Obama’s fuel economy regulations requiring 35.5 miles per gallon. Afterward, in an interview with the Globe and Mail, Aglukkaq spoke of the unfairness of a global treaty. “It’s not up to one country to solve the global greenhouse-gas emissions. I mean, seriously now, it’s just not fair. We all have to do our part, big or small countries.”

That’s true. If only her small country would do its part, too.

“Forum: Archaeology of the Anthropocene” (AAA Blog)

“Forum: Archaeology of the Anthropocene”

by Asa Randall

CITATION:

Edgeworth, M., Benjamin, J., Clarke, B., Crossland, Z., Domanska, E., Gorman, A. C., Graves-Brown, P., Harris, E. C., Hudson, M. J., Kelley, J. M., Paz, V. J., Salerno, M. A., Witmore, C. & Zarankin, A. 2014. Forum: Archaeology of the Anthropocene. Journal of Contemporary Archaeology, 1,1, pp. 73-132.

ON-LINE AVAILABILITY:

 DOI: 10.1558/jca.v1i1.73

ABSTRACT:

What role will archaeology play in the Anthropocene – the proposed new geological epoch marked by human impact on Earth systems? That is the question discussed by thirteen archaeologists and other scholars from five continents in this thought-provoking forum. Their responses are diverse and wide-ranging. While Edward Harris looks to archaeological stratigraphy for a material paradigm of the Anthropocene, Alice Gorman explores the extent of human impact on orbital space and lunar surfaces – challenging the assumption that the Anthropocene is confined to Earth. Jeff Benjamin investigates the sounds of the Anthropocene. Paul Graves-Brown questions the idea that the epoch had its onset with the invention of the steam engine, while Mark Hudson uses Timothy Morton’s concept of hyperobjects to imagine the dark artefacts of the future. Victor Paz doubts the practical relevance of the concept to archaeological chronologies, and Bruce Clarke warns archaeologists to steer clear of the Anthropocene altogether, on the grounds of the overbearing hubris of the very idea of the Age of Humans. Others like Jason Kelly and Ewa Domanska regard the Anthropocene debate as an opportunity to reach new forms of understanding of Earth systems. André Zarankin and Melisa Salerno ground significant issues in the archaeology of Antarctica. And Zoe Crossland explores the vital links between the known past and the imagined future. As a discipline orientated to the future and contemporary world as well as the past, Chris Witmore concludes, archaeology in the Anthropocene will have more work than it can handle.

The archaeological imagination is the ability to conceive of a past through encounters with old objects, substances, or places (Thomas, 1996, p. 63-64). In a sense, the archaeological imagination meshes the past with the present, as ancient objects are animated with contemporary concerns. Imagining a past and even empathizing with ancient actors likely has its roots in early modern humans (Gamble, 2008, p. 1-2). That is, everyone has an archaeological imagination.  Archaeologists in particular have spent a fair amount of time honing their scientific toolkits and theoretical frameworks to create informed narratives about the past. Much archaeological effort has been oriented towards elucidating patterns and processes in deep time, although archaeologies of modern rubbish disposal or ruination (e.g. Rathje and Murphy, 2001, p, Dawdy, 2010, p.) have coexisted with studies of the more ancient. Indeed, archaeology’s focus on the material world—or human entanglements with it—provides relevant viewpoint in which to engage with, critique, or document the Anthropocene.

In the inaugural issue of the Journal of Contemporary Archaeology, Edgeworth and colleagues turn their archaeological imagination towards the “anthropocene” and ask what does an archaeology of the Anthropocene look like, how do today’s practices create tangible (or even acoustic) traces, and what might the Anthropocene’s archaeological record look like in the future? The collection of short papers emerged from the 2013 Theoretical Archaeology Group meeting, and there is much to digest here. Of the contributions in the forum, those by Edgeworth (“Introduction”) and Witmore (“Archaeology, the Anthropocene, and the Hypanthropocene”) provide useful discussions of the themes, controversies, and contributions. Broadly speaking, the forum participants engage with the ways in which the Anthropocene destabilizes disciplinary boundaries and makes complex the relationship between time scales (human versus geological) and the spatial scale(s) of human activity in the world. These same sorts of themes echo ongoing debate regarding the Anthropocene as a precise “thing” whose identity is controlled by Geologists, or one that invokes or necessitates many viewpoints.

Of particular interest to me were those contributions that highlighted ways in which aspects of Anthropocenic habitation extend or unsettle traditional archaeological imaginations. For example, Hudson (“Dark Artifacts: Hyperobjects and the Archaeology of the Anthropocene”) considers from an archaeological perspective what Morton (2010, p.) refers to as “hyperobjects.” Paraphrasing Hudson, hyperobjects are characterized as massively distributed such that they are physically and conceptually viscous, of a particular phase but of great durability, nonlocal (i.e. not typical of any one place), formed from interactions, and often “dangerous”.  Cited examples include Styrofoam, radionuclides, or plastiglomerate (so, too, the rebounding landscapes described by Ingo Schlupp may qualify); the spatial distribution, small size, or virtual character of hyperobjects makes them difficult to visualize or even comprehend. Not only do hyperobjects resist easy interpretation due to their lack of being of a particular place, their durability means that they lack life-cycles that are intelligible within a human framework of hundreds or thousands of years (that is, they will co-exist with many different kinds of societies in the future). While hyperobjects are of human agency, they reside in a strange state between cultural and natural whose ubiquity does not neatly sit in the localized or humanized imagined pasts that we are accustomed to thinking through, and which may ultimately lead to indifference towards them.

In a related vein, Crossland (“Anthropocene: Locating Agency, Imagining the Future”) considers the ways in which narratives about the Anthropocene can warp time and agency. To paraphrase Crossland, by restricting the Anthropocene to the industrial era (replete with dangerous hyperobjects), a teological arrow is held fast between the past and the present, such that only a dystopic future is possible. On the other hand, relocating the Anthropocene to the ancient world (the so-called Paleoanthropocene) may promote continuity between present and past (and redistribute the responsibility for it globally), but “the power of the imagery is undercut, and the ability of the concept to shock people and governments into change seems to be weakened” (p. 125). Crossland suggests a third route for our archaeological imaginations in the Anthropocene, which is to accept that at any point in time futures are open ended, and that “traces of the past therefore provide the ground for imagining the future” (p. 127). While preexisting conditions are important, traces of the past are really collaborations between the past and the present. We can avoid historical narratives that are arranged as progressive change with dystopian futures by envisioning that presents (in the past and our own) had many potential futures.  Kenneth Sassaman (2012, p.) has similarly argued that the relationships between past/present/future are never stable, and that communities in the past likely planned for their own alternative futures.

I’m not certain that the concept of hyperobject does anything for us, particularly as a marker of the Anthropocene. It is likely that other “pre-modern” objects or technologies have been equally influential but we do not reflect on them either. Furthermore, the time and space bending properties of the archaeological imagination are not easily translated into a world dominated by progressive thinking.  But, Hudson and other papers in this contribution challenges us to think about how the categories of objects and substances we are creating today—and the methods we use to interrogate them—can influence how we think about time, culture, and even social justice. In this regard, I suspect the upcoming “Anthropocene Slam: A Cabinet of Curiosities” forum (which will apparently be streamed live) will provide much food for thought. According to the forum’s description, each contributor has provided an object of study, ranging from substances such as concrete to room thermostats, through which we might visualize or imagine the relations between pasts and futures and different ecologies.

What will a future archaeological imagination make of the anthropocene? Time will certainly tell.  Yet, perhaps thinking about how we are creating an archaeological record of our own may make us more keenly future oriented.

FURTHER READING:

Dawdy, S. L. 2010. Clockpunk Anthropology and the Ruins of Modernity. Current Anthropology, 51, 761-793. DOI 10.1086/657626. Dawdy explores the ways in which creative uses of  and experiences with the past in contemporary times undermines easy separations between modern and premodern.

Gamble, C. 2008. Archaeology: the basics, New York, Routledge. This is an easy to read introductory text on Archaeology and interpretation.

Morton, T. 2010. The ecological thought, Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press. Morton considers what interconnectedness means, particularly when we acknowledge that all things have relations.

Rathje, W. L. & Murphy, C. 2001. Rubbish!: the archaeology of garbage, Tucson, AZ, University of Arizona Press. This popular book provides insights from archaeological examinations of modern refuse disposal practices.

Sassaman, K. E. 2012. Futurologists Look Back. Archaeologies, 10.1007/s11759-012-9205-0, 1–19. 10.1007/s11759-012-9205-0. Sassaman argues that the wall that is often erected between modern and premodern communities is minimized if we allow ancient communities to have imagined and acted upon their own futures (so called futures past).

Thomas, J. 1996. Time, Culture and Identity: An Interpretive Archaeology, London, Routledge. Thomas introduces the concept of the archaeological imagination.

Climate change caused by ocean, not just atmosphere (Science Daily)

Date: October 25, 2014

Source: Rutgers University

Summary: Most of the concerns about climate change have focused on the amount of greenhouse gases that have been released into the atmosphere. A new study reveals another equally important factor in regulating Earth’s climate. Researchers say the major cooling of Earth and continental ice build-up in the Northern Hemisphere 2.7 million years ago coincided with a shift in the circulation of the ocean.

The ocean conveyor moves heat and water between the hemispheres, along the ocean bottom. It also moves carbon dioxide. Credit: NASA

Most of the concerns about climate change have focused on the amount of greenhouse gases that have been released into the atmosphere.

But in a new study published in Science, a group of Rutgers researchers have found that circulation of the ocean plays an equally important role in regulating Earth’s climate.

In their study, the researchers say the major cooling of Earth and continental ice build-up in the Northern Hemisphere 2.7 million years ago coincided with a shift in the circulation of the ocean — which pulls in heat and carbon dioxide in the Atlantic and moves them through the deep ocean from north to south until it’s released in the Pacific.

The ocean conveyor system, Rutgers scientists believe, changed at the same time as a major expansion in the volume of the glaciers in the northern hemisphere as well as a substantial fall in sea levels. It was the Antarctic ice, they argue, that cut off heat exchange at the ocean’s surface and forced it into deep water. They believe this caused global climate change at that time, not carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

“We argue that it was the establishment of the modern deep ocean circulation — the ocean conveyor — about 2.7 million years ago, and not a major change in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere that triggered an expansion of the ice sheets in the northern hemisphere,” says Stella Woodard, lead author and a post-doctoral researcher in the Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences. Their findings, based on ocean sediment core samples between 2.5 million to 3.3 million years old, provide scientists with a deeper understanding of the mechanisms of climate change today.

The study shows that changes in heat distribution between the ocean basins is important for understanding future climate change. However, scientists can’t predict precisely what effect the carbon dioxide currently being pulled into the ocean from the atmosphere will have on climate. Still, they argue that since more carbon dioxide has been released in the past 200 years than any recent period in geological history, interactions between carbon dioxide, temperature changes and precipitation, and ocean circulation will result in profound changes.

Scientists believe that the different pattern of deep ocean circulation was responsible for the elevated temperatures 3 million years ago when the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere was arguably what it is now and the temperature was 4 degree Fahrenheit higher. They say the formation of the ocean conveyor cooled Earth and created the climate we live in now.

“Our study suggests that changes in the storage of heat in the deep ocean could be as important to climate change as other hypotheses — tectonic activity or a drop in the carbon dioxide level — and likely led to one of the major climate transitions of the past 30 million years,” says Yair Rosenthal, co-author and professor of marine and coastal sciences at Rutgers

The paper’s co-authors are Woodard, Rosenthal, Kenneth Miller and James Wright, both professors of earth and planetary sciences at Rutgers; Beverly Chiu, a Rutgers undergraduate majoring in earth and planetary sciences; and Kira Lawrence, associate professor of geology at Lafayette College in Easton, Pennsylvania.


Journal Reference:

  1. S. C. Woodard, Y. Rosenthal, K. G. Miller, J. D. Wright, B. K. Chiu, K. T. Lawrence.Antarctic role in Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Science, 2014; DOI:10.1126/science.1255586

Suando no apocalipse (Folha de S.Paulo)

24/10/2014 02h00

Michel Laub

Num ensaio sobre “Júlio César”, filme de Joseph Mankiewicz baseado em Shakespeare, Roland Barthes vê na transpiração dos personagens um sinal de moralidade. “Todos suam porque debatem algo consigo mesmos”, escreve o pensador francês. Homens até então virtuosos, como Brutus, demonstram o “enorme trabalho fisiológico” que dá abandonar princípios para cometer um crime.

Se há uma moral no suor derramado em São Paulo, que teve dias de 37 graus em meio a uma crise hídrica sem precedentes, ela também deveria vir de uma espécie de culpa: a lembrança de que o clima excêntrico dos últimos anos nasce de uma responsabilidade coletiva, dos danos que nosso estilo de vida causa à natureza segundo a quase unanimidade dos cientistas.

É sobre a dificuldade de reconhecermos isso, entre outros temas, que trata uma entrevista recente do antropólogo Eduardo Viveiros de Castro e da filósofa Déborah Danowski à jornalista e escritora Eliane Brum. Se um utopista consegue imaginar coisas grandes e abstratas, como o tal do mundo melhor, mas não implementá-las na prática, hoje seríamos o contrário: tecnicamente capazes de fazer drones e bombas, mas não de conceber –ao menos em empatia– a hipótese concreta de seus efeitos.

Daí nasce a leviandade com que seguimos tratando florestas, rios e cidades, apesar dos múltiplos alertas. Na entrevista, publicada no site do “El País”, o cenário em que estamos prestes a entrar –uma megalópole sem água– é descrito como uma versão real da ficção maia do fim do mundo, uma narrativa sem redenção em que “nosso primeiro pé já encontrou o nada”.

A saída para amenizar o estrago seria a superação de um modelo baseado na “acumulação de lixo como principal produto”. Aqui entra o lado político de Viveiros de Castro, que desagrada petistas, tucanos e qualquer um que celebre a entrada de milhões de brasileiros no mercado consumidor. Na campanha que se encerra domingo, os argumentos do antropólogo foram compreensivelmente ignorados.

Segundo ele, a visão do pobre como um “nós de segunda classe”, alguém que deve ser melhorado para se tornar no futuro o que somos hoje –com nossas geladeiras, carros, comida transgênica barata e farta, Netflix sob o ar-condicionado silencioso–, é parte do problema. Não há recursos que deem conta de tanta demanda sem causar desmatamento, poluição, fluxos migratórios forçados e trágicos.

Um otimista à esquerda dirá que o caminho não é o crescimento sem limites, e sim uma distribuição radical da riqueza. Viveiros de Castro usa a expressão “superdesenvolvido” para nações como os Estados Unidos, onde o gasto individual é o equivalente ao de 32 pessoas do Quênia. Já um otimista à direita dirá que o capitalismo sempre criou tecnologias que o salvaram de impasses como o atual.

Tendo como parâmetro a história, na qual também há tragédias suficientes geradas pelo igualitarismo puro e duro (e que não é igualitarismo, vide a ex-URSS), o segundo cenário é mais possível. Difícil imaginar o Primeiro Mundo abrindo mão de sua riqueza voluntariamente e no prazo necessário. Ou países com imensas dívidas sociais –Brasil, Índia, China– desistindo de sua chance de desenvolvimento tardio.

O problema é que “possível” é diferente de “provável”. O otimismo gosta de se alimentar da falta de informação. Ou de uma ingenuidade teimosa em relação à boa fé e visão de longo prazo de quem nos dirige. A usina nuclear de Fukushima foi construída numa área sujeita a tsunamis. No circo negacionista da Sabesp, somos palhaços por motivos eleitorais.

Num outro ensaio de Barthes, igualmente sobre um tema a calhar aqui –o plástico–, o milagre é definido como uma “conversão brusca da natureza”. O mesmo daria para dizer de seu avesso, a catástrofe. Déborah Danowski acredita que a dúvida não é mais sobre se ela vai acontecer, e sim sobre sua dimensão –a diferença entre um aquecimento de dois, quatro ou seis graus na Terra, entre uma vida “difícil” e uma “hostil à espécie humana”.

Diante disso, acrescenta Viveiros de Castro, nos restará pouco além de aprender com aqueles que, sem sonhos produtivos e consumistas, são o oposto dos pobres: os índios. No Brasil, eles experimentam o apocalipse desde 1500. Se há algo que conhecem bem, é como tentar “viver melhor num mundo pior”, num presente/futuro que foi “roubado por nós mesmos de nós”

Guerreiros climáticos bloqueiam o maior porto de carvão do mundo (IPS)

1/10/2014 – 10h12

por Lyndal Rowlands, da IPS

canoa Guerreiros climáticos bloqueiam o maior porto de carvão do mundo

Nações Unidas, 21/10/2014 – Trinta ativistas contra a mudança climática oriundos de 12 pequenos países insulares do Oceano Pacífico bloquearam com suas canoas, junto com centenas de australianos em caiaques e pranchas de surf, o maior porto de exportação de carvão do mundo, em Newcastle, na Austrália. Organizado com apoio do grupo ecologista 350.org, com sede nos Estados Unidos, o ato, realizado no dia 17, atrasou a saída de oito dos 12 navios que passaram pelo porto durante as nove horas de bloqueio.

A intenção foi chamar a atenção para as consequências da mudança climática nesses países. Os ativistas, que se autodenominam Guerreiros Climáticos do Pacífico, eram de 12 países insulares do Pacífico, incluindo Fiji, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Micronésia, Vanuatu, Ilhas Salomão, Tonga, Samoa, Papua Nova Guiné e Niue. “Queremos que a Austrália recorde que faz parte do Pacífico e que somos uma família, e ter esta família significa que permanecemos juntos. Não podemos permitir que um dos irmãos mais velhos destrua tudo”, declarou à IPS Mikaele Maiava, um dos ativistas.

A Austrália é o quarto maior produtor de carvão no mundo. “Assim, queremos que a comunidade australiana, especialmente os líderes da Austrália, pensem em algo mais além de seus bolsos… na humanidade, não apenas para o povo australiano, mas para todos”, acrescentou Mikaele, nascido em Tokelau.

Ao discursar na inauguração de uma mina de carvão no dia 13, o primeiro-ministro australiano, Tony Abbott, disse que “o carvão é bom para a humanidade”. Porém, Mikaele discorda. “Falamos de humanidade. A humanidade tem a ver com as pessoas perderem sua terra? Sua cultura e identidade? Tem a ver com viver com medo de que as futuras gerações já não possam viver em uma ilha bonita? Essa é a resposta para o futuro?”, questionou o ativista.

Mikaele afirmou que ele e seus companheiros estão conscientes de que sua luta não se limita ao Pacífico, e que a mudança climática também afeta outros países do Sul em desenvolvimento. “Estamos conscientes de que essa luta não é só pelo Pacífico. A mensagem que queremos passar, sobretudo aos governantes, é que somos seres humanos. Essa luta não se trata só de nossa terra, mas é pela sobrevivência”, ressaltou.

Mikaele contou como seu país já sofre as consequências da mudança climática: “Vemos mudanças nos padrões climáticos e também vemos a ameaça para nossa segurança alimentar. É difícil gerar um futuro sustentável se a terra já não é tão fértil e os cultivos não crescem devido à invasão da água salgada”.

guerreros Guerreiros climáticos bloqueiam o maior porto de carvão do mundo

A costa de Tokelau sofre erosão. “A linha costeira está mudando. Há 15 anos, quando ia para a escola, podia caminhar em linha reta. Agora tenho que andar por uma linha torcida porque a praia sofreu a erosão”, contou Mikaele. Tokelau se converteu no primeiro país do mundo a utilizar 100% de energia renovável quando adotou a energia solar em 2012 para abastecer sua população, de aproximadamente 1.400 pessoas.

Mikaele e seus companheiros ativistas construíram com as próprias mãos as canoas que trouxeram para a Austrália para o protesto, o meio tradicional de transporte e pesca em seus países. Outra “guerreira” climática, Kathy Jetnil-Kijiner, das Ilhas Marshall, fez chorar o público presente na Assembleia Geral da Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU) em setembro, ao ler um poema escrito por sua pequena filha, Matafele Peinam.

“Ninguém se mudará, ninguém perderá sua terra natal, ninguém se converterá em um refugiado da mudança climática. Ou deveria dizer ninguém mais. Aos ilhéus de Carteret, em Papua Nova Guiné, e aos de Taro, em Fiji, aproveito este momento para pedir-lhes desculpas”, afirmou Jetnil-Kijiner, se referindo aos que são considerados os primeiros refugiados climáticos do mundo.

O Fórum das Ilhas do Pacífico qualificou a mudança climática como “maior ameaça para os meios de vida, a segurança e o bem-estar dos povos” da região. Segundo Jetnil-Kijiner, “a mudança climática é uma ameaça imediata e grave para o desenvolvimento sustentável e a erradicação da pobreza em muitos países insulares do Pacífico, e para a própria sobrevivência de alguns”.

“Entretanto, esses países estão entre os menos capazes de se adaptar e responder a esta mudança, e as consequências que enfrentam são desproporcionais em relação à sua minúscula contribuição coletiva para as emissões mundiais” dos gases-estufa, ressaltou Jetnil-Kijiner. As autoridades das ilhas do Pacífico redobraram suas cobranças e desafiaram o governo australiano a não demorar mais na adoção de medidas contra a mudança climática.

“A Austrália é um país do Pacífico. Ao optar por desmantelar suas políticas climáticas, se retirar das negociações internacionais e seguir adiante com a expansão de sua indústria de combustíveis fósseis está totalmente em desacordo com o resto da região”, afirmou Simon Bradshaw, da organização Oxfam. “Os vizinhos mais próximos da Austrália identificam sistematicamente a mudança climática como seu maior desafio e prioridade absoluta. Portanto, é inevitável que as ações recentes de Canberra repercutam em sua relação com as ilhas do Pacífico”, acrescentou.

“Uma pesquisa recente encomendada pela Oxfam mostra que 60% dos australianos acreditam que a mudança climática tem consequências negativas na capacidade da população dos países mais pobres para cultivar alimentos e ter acesso a eles, chegando a 68% entre a faixa etária de 18 aos 34 anos”, destacou Bradshaw. Envolverde/IPS

(IPS)

A tática da “embromação climática” (Instituto Socioambiental)

21/10/2014 – 11h14

por Márcio Santilli, do ISA*

mudancasclimaticas1 A tática da “embromação climática”Nos meios diplomáticos, comenta-se que o Itamaraty teria informado a conferência da ONU sobre mudanças climáticas que o Brasil adiará a entrega de sua proposta formal sobre os compromissos que o país dispõe-se a assumir de redução das emissões de gases de efeito estufa, responsáveis pelo aquecimento global. Esse posicionamento inicial dos países definirá o rumo das negociações climáticas internacionais.

O Itamaraty deve alegar que os 90 dias entre a posse do novo governo, em janeiro, e data estabelecida para esse posicionamento (31/3/2015) seriam insuficientes para tomar pé das pendências relativas às negociações. Pode ser.

Mas também pode não ser, pois um dos postulantes é a própria presidente Dilma, que já deveria estar informada das negociações, enquanto que o programa de Aécio Neves apresenta diretrizes gerais sobre o tema, embora não traga detalhes para um posicionamento formal, o que não parece difícil de fazer em 90 dias. Qualquer presidente terá de se posicionar, desde o início do mandato, sobre muitas outras pendências urgentes.

Até parece razoável a suposta preocupação do Itamaraty em assegurar um prazo maior para a decisão. Na linguagem das negociações, no entanto, os retardatários sacrificam seu protagonismo político, deixando de influenciar os demais países e ficando a reboque daqueles que irão definir os marcos de um futuro acordo.

É bom lembrar que, há seis anos, na frustrante reunião da ONU em Copenhague, o presidente Lula anunciou uma meta brasileira de redução de emissões – entre 36,1% e 38,9% – baseada sobretudo na redução das taxas do desmatamento na Amazônia. Fomos o primeiro país a assumir esse compromisso, ainda que em caráter voluntário, entre os que não estavam obrigados a reduzir suas emissões pelo Protocolo de Quioto.

A proposta atendeu a pressões da sociedade civil e significou um empurrão presidencial sobre o posicionamento do Itamaraty, sempre resistente a comprometimentos do gênero. Por outro lado, influenciou outros governos a também avançar nas suas posições, ampliando as chances de um acordo significativo, que, infelizmente, não aconteceu.

marcio pequeno A tática da “embromação climática”

Agora que vários fatores ampliam as chances de um acordo até a conferência a ser realizada em Paris, em dezembro de 2015, o Brasil adota a tática do avestruz, ficando a reboque da dinâmica que será definida por países como a China e os EUA. Não se trata de dispor, ou não, de um bom motivo para justificar a protelação de sua posição, mas deveria tratar-se de dispor de uma estratégia – de país, não só de governo – para aproveitar os momentos mais favoráveis e influenciar positivamente negociações que serão decisivas para a sociedade brasileira e as futuras gerações.

Como não é crível que o Itamaraty desconheça a relevância dos diversos momentos das negociações, também se pode creditar a sua protelação ao crescimento das emissões brasileiras e os indícios da retomada das taxas do desmatamento da Amazônia. Diplomacia defensiva. Mas para nos defender de quem? De países que se apresentem com maior disposição para salvar o mundo dos piores desdobramentos das mudanças no clima? Não seriam elas a maior ameaça para nossa economia e a qualidade de vida do nosso povo?

Eis aí uma boa questão para o debate das eleições presidenciais: a que compromissos estarão dispostos, Aécio e Dilma? Apressar o passo para não perder o bonde? Ou embarcar na tática “embromatória”? Que estratégias adotariam para reverter a tendência de aumento das emissões brasileiras, frente a um acordo internacional cujo objetivo central será diminuir as emissões globais?

* Márcio Santilli é sócio fundador do ISA.

** Publicado originalmente na Folha.com e retirado do site Instituto Socioambiental.

(Instituto Socioambiental)

Climate change in the news (DISCCRS)

DISCCRS News – October 21, 2014 (Nancy Rose)

NEWS

2014 Stephen H. Schneider Award for Outstanding Climate Science Communication Bestowed Upon Dr. Jane Lubchenco – Climate One – October 16, 2014 – https://climate-one.org/content/2014-stephen-schneider-award-jane-lubchenco

1934 drought was worst of the last millennium, study finds – American Geophysical Union Press Release – October 14, 2014 – http://news.agu.org/press-release/1934-drought-was-worst-of-the-last-millennium-study-finds/

7 Underwater Surprises Exposed in Dried Out California Lakes – Mashable – October 16, 2014 – http://mashable.com/2014/10/16/7-underwater-secrets-found-in-dried-out-california-lakes/

Warming Earth heading for hottest year on record – Associated Press – October 20, 2014 – http://bigstory.ap.org/article/079ed0ae0f5049019ea25d8e1897c81e/another-month-another-global-heat-record-broken

IPCC corrects claim suggesting climate change would be good for the economy – Guardian – October 17, 2014 – http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/17/ipcc-corrects-claim-suggesting-climate-change-would-be-good-for-the-economy

Ocean Acidification: Federal Response Under Way, but Actions Needed to Understand and Address Potential Impacts – U.S. Government Accountability Office Press Release – October 14, 2014 – http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-14-736

Will we still be swimming in the sea in 2100? – New Scientist – October 15, 2014 – http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22429914.100-will-we-still-be-swimming-in-the-sea-in-2100.html#.VEWUOCiv1sQ

Ice loss sends Alaskan temperatures soaring – Climate News Network – October 17, 2014 – http://www.climatenewsnetwork.net/2014/10/ice-loss-sends-alaskan-temperatures-soaring/

U.S. Takes Charge of Efforts to Cope with a Fast-Changing Arctic – ClimateWire (via Scientific American) – October 20, 2014 – http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/u-s-takes-charge-of-efforts-to-cope-with-a-fast-changing-arctic/

Cutting Global Warming Pollution Just Business as Usual at Some Major Companies – ClimateWire (via Scientific American) – October 17, 2014 – http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cutting-global-warming-pollution-just-business-as-usual-at-some-major-companies/

Veteran green says emissions aren?t the only danger – Climate News Network – October 16, 2014 – http://www.climatenewsnetwork.net/2014/10/veteran-green-says-emissions-arent-the-only-danger/

Climate Change Takes Center Stage on Instagram – Climate Central – October 17, 2014 – http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-instagram-photography-18190

FORUM

Teaching argumentation in introductory climate, energy, and water courses – Science Education Solutions, Inc. – October 12, 2014 – http://disccrs.org/newsletter/ScienceEdSolutionsInc.pdf

Explanation of the Predicted Geoscience Workforce Shortage – American Geoscience Institute – Geoscience Currents #93 – October 16, 2014 – http://www.americangeosciences.org/workforce/currents/explanation-predicted-geoscience-workforce-shortage

REUTERS SUMMIT-G20 host Australia stumbling block to global climate change action – Reuters – October 17, 2014 – By Jane Wardell – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/17/climatechange-summit-australia-g20-reute-idUSL3N0S42QV20141017

    Related: REUTERS SUMMIT-Can an oil and gas superpower lead on climate change? – Reuters – October 17, 2014 – By Valerie Volcovici and Ayesha Rascoe – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/17/climatechange-summit-oil-policy-idUSL2N0S933V20141017

    Related: REUTERS SUMMIT-Pollution and scarce resources key green issues for firms – Reuters – October 17, 2014 – By Nina Chestney – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/17/climatechange-summit-ambienta-reuters-su-idUSL6N0SB11S20141017

    Related: REUTERS SUMMIT-Lax emissions reporting makes green firms hard to find in emerging markets – Reuters – October 17, 2014 – By Himank Sharma and Sumeet Chatterjee – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/17/climatechange-summit-emerging-idUSL3N0SB2UU20141017

Are we there yet? Scientists prepare for change of epoch – Reuters – October 17, 2014 – By Emma Anderson – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/17/uk-science-world-epoch-idUSKCN0I61YS20141017

No silver bullet to tackle building emissions: CBRE – Reuters – October 17, 2014 – By Valerie Volcovici – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/17/us-climatechange-summit-realestate-idUSKCN0I531120141017

Rising sea levels aren’t a scientific threat ? it’s happening outside my window – Guardian – October 16, 2014 – By James Woodford – http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/16/rising-sea-levels-isnt-a-scientific-threat-its-happening-outside-my-window

What Universities Can Do About Climate Change – Huffington Post – September 24, 2014 – By Drew Gilpin Faust and John L. Hennessy – http://www.huffingtonpost.com/drew-gilpin-faust/post_8366_b_5871214.html

O meio ambiente e os presidenciáveis (Mundo Sustentável)

24/10/2014 – 12h18

por André Trigueiro*

AecioDilma O meio ambiente e os presidenciáveis

Há pouco mais de uma semana, antes do reinício da campanha eleitoral visando o 2º turno da disputa presidencial, foi publicado no site Mundo Sustentável uma crítica aos candidatos pela falta de clareza das propostas ambientais. Água, lixo, florestas, clima, energia e transportes foram alguns dos temas ausentes no 1º turno e que justificaram o texto publicado. Pedimos então às campanhas de Dilma e Aécio que respondessem livremente às críticas e nos enviassem suas propostas em relação aos temas levantados pela coluna.

A coluna fez contatos com a campanha de Dilma por e-mail e telefone sobre esses questionamentos desde o último dia 10 de outubro, mas não recebeu resposta. Dessa forma, colocaremos o pronunciamento feito pela presidente Dilma em Nova York, por ocasião da Cúpula do Clima, em 24 de setembro (leia também aqui matéria do G1 sobre o discurso).Veja mais abaixo.

Que as posições assumidas pelos candidatos possam ser de alguma forma úteis aos nossos leitores nessa reta final de campanha.

Veja abaixo a resposta enviada pela campanha de Aécio e assinada por Fabio Feldmann e José Carlos Carvalho ao último post da coluna.

“Água:

Em relação ao tema, o Plano o tratou com o título “A urgente agenda das águas”. E como você pode verificar neste link, sintetizamos as nossas propostas:

• Fortalecimento do Sistema Nacional de Gerenciamento dos Recursos Hídricos. Atenção especial deve ser dada ao impacto do aquecimento global no ciclo hidrológico, com o objetivo de estabelecer políticas de adaptação e mitigação em relação ao risco de desastres naturais, tais como enchentes, inundações e grandes deslizamentos;
• Estabelecer metas de redução de desperdício nas redes públicas com calendário determinado, com disponibilização de linhas de crédito específicas para estimular novas tecnologias de gestão de redes;
• Estimular, em conjunto com estados e municípios, a implantação de medidores individuais;
• Editar normas para reuso de água;
• Dar atenção especial à Política de Pagamento por Serviços Ambientais para os produtores rurais que conservam a vegetação protetora dos recursos hídricos.

De se assinalar que alguns dos seus comentários, ao fazer a pergunta, apresentam uma enorme identidade com o que escrevemos, conforme segue:

Compromissos:

• O Brasil está vivendo, pela primeira vez na sua história, o advento de graves crises de água, de modo que é necessário que esse tema seja reforçado na agenda política brasileira. Isso significa, claramente, o enfrentamento do problema de uma perspectiva holística, que permita mudar a gestão dos nossos recursos hídricos. Temos já no Brasil uma legislação que permite um avanço significativo por meio dos comitês de bacia, enquadramento dos corpos d’água e uma série de outros instrumentos. A existência da Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA) foi um passo importante, e temos que aproveitar o capital intelectual que ela possui para avançar na implementação das políticas públicas. Atenção especial deve ser dada à gestão de águas subterrâneas em conjunto com os estados a quem cabe, em última instância, a sua responsabilidade.

• Estudos importantes mostram que muitas cidades do mundo têm o abastecimento de água vinculado à existência de áreas florestadas. Por essa razão, entendemos que é necessário garantir a proteção dessas áreas por meio da manutenção ou ampliação de unidades de conservação, de modo que devemos estimular a sinergia entre o Sistema Nacional de Unidades de Conservação (Snuc) e a Política Nacional de Recursos Hídricos, garantindo, assim, a qualidade e a vazão necessária ao abastecimento de água das cidades brasileiras.

• Hoje, a questão da água está definitivamente presente na agenda da sociedade e no meio empresarial, cabendo ao Governo Federal estabelecer políticas públicas voltadas à gestão eficiente desses recursos. O consumidor tem ciência da escassez existente em relação à água e, uma vez portador das informações, tende a privilegiar bens e serviços oferecidos com os devidos cuidados. Por sua vez, na esfera internacional, o tema adquiriu um peso estratégico, de modo que o Brasil deverá exercer liderança para que a comunidade internacional avance no tratamento em termos dos cuidados específicos que devem ser conferidos ao assunto. É bom lembrar que a água-doce é considerada, por importantes entidades acadêmicas, como um dos grandes limites do planeta. Destaca-se ainda a importância da cooperação com os países vizinhos, com os quais compartilhamos as grandes bacias hidrográficas dos Rios Amazonas e Prata.

Também vale a pena assinalar que no item “Sustentabilidade, Mudanças Climáticas, Biodiversidade e Meio Ambiente”, existe uma proposta de inclusão de critérios de sustentabilidade nos projetos habitacionais, com o objetivo de estimular habitações sustentáveis em termos de conforto térmico, saúde e segurança dos materiais, eficiência energética, uso eficiente e reuso de água, coleta seletiva e utilização de água de chuva.

Lixo:

Em relação ao tema, assumimos alguns compromissos e propostas no item “Cidades Sustentáveis e Mobilidade Urbana”.

• As exigências contidas nas legislações devem se tornar instrumentos eficazes para garantir melhor qualidade de vida aos cidadãos. Assim, o Governo Federal articulará, na sua esfera, ações que assegurem a efetividade dos planos municipais de mobilidade urbana, de gestão de resíduos sólidos, entre outros. Em relação aos estados, promover planos metropolitanos, levando em conta que cabe a eles legislar sobre essa matéria.

• As políticas econômicas vão viabilizar e estimular claramente políticas urbanas inovadoras, estimulando o transporte público sustentável, o que inclui, entre outras iniciativas, a adoção de combustíveis renováveis. E na gestão de resíduos, adotaremos estímulos tributários para viabilizar a logística reversa.

• Apoiar os municípios na implantação de projetos de gestão de resíduos, incluindo a coleta seletiva, a reciclagem e a destinação final ambientalmente adequada.

Também vale a pena assinalar que no item “Sustentabilidade, Mudanças Climáticas, Biodiversidade e Meio Ambiente”, existem as seguintes propostas:

• Implementar Política Nacional de Resíduos Sólidos na perspectiva de estimular a economia circular no Brasil (reciclar, reutilizar e remanufaturar sempre que possível).

• Implantar Política Nacional de Educação Ambiental em conjunto com o Ministério da Educação, bem como com os estados e municípios. Atenção especial deve ser dada ao consumo consciente.

Em relação ao consumo consciente, vale ressaltar que o Plano de Governo também faz menção a ele na área de “Direitos do Consumidor e Defesa da Concorrência”.

Florestas:

A questão das florestas está inclusa principalmente em “Política Florestal”, no item “Sustentabilidade, Mudanças Climáticas, Biodiversidade e Meio Ambiente”:

• Implantar uma Política Nacional de Florestas, com ênfase no estímulo à recuperação das áreas previstas no Código Florestal, inscritas no Cadastro Ambiental Rural (CAR) e constantes do Programa de Regularização Ambiental (PRA). Promoção do manejo florestal sustentável das florestas tropicais e implantação de um programa de florestas plantadas, que deve contemplar a expansão da indústria de base florestal e o cultivo de espécies de madeiras nobres de ciclo longo. Fazer investimentos em pesquisa de silvicultura de árvores nativas.

• Dar atenção especial às iniciativas de concessão florestal, utilizando as florestas públicas e as unidades de conservação de uso sustentável, visando valorar economicamente a floresta em pé e sedentarizar a atividade econômica madeireira, reduzindo a oferta de madeira ilegal, “legal” fraudada e legal não sustentável.

• Desenvolver um programa de formação de corredores ecológicos com a utilização do Cadastro Ambiental Rural (CAR) e do Programa de Regularização Ambiental (PRA), de forma a garantir a conectividade das UCs e áreas com fragmentos florestais significativos.

• Estabelecer parcerias com os Órgãos Estaduais de Meio Ambiente (Oemas) e a sociedade civil para monitoramento dos biomas brasileiros, a exemplo do que é realizado na Mata Atlântica e no bioma amazônico.

Além disso, na introdução do Plano, reconhecemos que parte significativa da biodiversidade brasileira está associada aos ecossistemas florestais, na medida em que temos em nosso território a maior porção de floresta tropical do mundo e grande extensão de terras com vocação para a silvicultura. Essa realidade impõe a necessidade de uma robusta política florestal, que exige do Governo Federal, tendo em vista a nova Lei Florestal brasileira, apoiar estados, municípios e produtores rurais para o cumprimento à obrigatoriedade de implantação do Cadastro Ambiental Rural (CAR) e do Programa de Regularização Ambiental (PRA) nas propriedades rurais. Isso deve ser feito de forma que a recuperação da reserva legal, das áreas de preservação permanente e de uso restrito e o reflorestamento com finalidade múltipla (ecológica e econômica) ocorram no contexto mais amplo da restauração dos ecossistemas afetados pela ação antrópica.

Clima:

Em relação ao tema, reconhecemos, logo na introdução do Plano, que:

Um dos maiores desafios deste início de século é o enfrentamento do aquecimento global. As consequências do aumento da temperatura média do planeta são dramáticas na vida das pessoas em todo o mundo, bem como na economia dos países, que devem assumir sua responsabilidade em duas direções complementares.

A primeira, no campo da mitigação, diminuindo as emissões de gases efeito estufa (GEE). No Brasil, vamos manter a redução do desmatamento da Amazônia, do Cerrado e dos demais biomas, bem como assegurar uma matriz energética limpa, uma agricultura de baixo carbono e uma boa gestão de resíduos.

A segunda, no campo da adaptação, vamos preparar o país para os impactos da mudança do clima com estratégias que aumentem a capacidade de enfrentar os incidentes climáticos graves como enchentes, inundações, ondas de calor e secas prolongadas.

Vamos priorizar a transição para uma economia de baixo carbono. Isto significa um papel protagonista para o poder público em termos de adoção de novas políticas que complementem as estratégias de comando e controle.

Em termos práticos, adotaremos instrumentos econômicos que estimulem, efetivamente, uma agricultura de baixo carbono, padrões rigorosos de eficiência energética, conservação da biodiversidade e conservação do solo e água. Utilizaremos o poder de compras governamentais mediante ampliação das práticas de licitação sustentável no país, uma vez que representam uma parte expressiva do PIB nacional. Com isso, estaremos viabilizando, a médio prazo, a economia brasileira a produzir bens e serviços sustentáveis, garantindo-lhes acesso a mercados internacionais.

Compartilhamos do entendimento, hoje em debate, de que é fundamental a precificação do carbono, caso se queira assegurar o compromisso internacional de admitir um aumento da matriz energética menos dependente das fontes fósseis e garantir a redução do desmatamento dos biomas brasileiros. Não se pode esquecer que os próximos quinze anos são absolutamente essenciais para que se possa reduzir drasticamente as emissões de GEE no planeta.

A comunidade internacional assumiu o compromisso de oferecer um novo tratado em 2015, em Paris, que assegure a estabilidade climática do planeta, com o objetivo de fixar limites globais para a emissão de GEE. Além disso, nesse mesmo ano, haverá a pactuação dos Objetivos do Desenvolvimento Sustentável em substituição aos Objetivos do Milênio.

Vamos desempenhar um papel de vanguarda nos encaminhamentos dessas questões na agenda internacional.

À frente do governo brasileiro, o presidente da República vai assumir pessoalmente essa agenda, procurando resgatar a liderança brasileira junto a outros chefes de Estado, a exemplo do que Fernando Henrique Cardoso fez quando da criação do Fórum Brasileiro de Mudança do Clima. Assim, o Brasil estará atuando com firmeza nos desafios globais planetários, tais como a mudança do clima, os oceanos, a conservação da biodiversidade, a proteção da camada de ozônio, enfim, todos aqueles dos quais dependem as futuras gerações.

Reside aí o grande diferencial do desenvolvimento sustentável que adotaremos: pensar sempre no horizonte de tempo das futuras gerações.

Além disso, vale a pena assinalar que no item “Sustentabilidade, Mudanças Climáticas, Biodiversidade e Meio Ambiente”, afirmamos as seguintes propostas:

• Posição de liderança da Presidência da República nas questões de sustentabilidade, visando garantir um efetivo diálogo horizontal na esfera federal, com o engajamento dos estados, municípios, setor empresarial e a sociedade civil.

• Protagonismo na coordenação e articulação dos atores sociais e agentes econômicos envolvidos no desenvolvimento sustentável, em articulação com estados e municípios, e papel de vanguarda nos encaminhamentos dessas questões na agenda internacional. Especial atenção à 21ª Conferência das Partes da Convenção de Mudança do Clima, a ser realizada em 2015, e aos desdobramentos daí decorrentes, bem como ao estabelecimento dos Objetivos do Desenvolvimento Sustentável em substituição aos Objetivos do Milênio. Nessa agenda internacional, o Brasil deve liderar iniciativas que protejam os oceanos e manter o seu papel de conservação do ambiente antártico, além de apoiar ostensivamente mudanças necessárias no Protocolo de Montreal, que trata da proteção da camada de ozônio.

• Valorização do Fórum Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas como lócus de discussão da mudança do clima no âmbito das negociações internacionais e no plano doméstico. A Presidência da República deverá retomar uma participação ativa no Fórum, de modo que o presidente possa estabelecer um diálogo pessoal com outros chefes de Estado, com o objetivo de alcançar um acordo global que permita que o aumento médio da temperatura, até o fim do século, se mantenha em no máximo 2oC.

Energia:

A questão está contemplada no item “Energia”.

Destacamos os seguintes compromissos:

• Definição de uma matriz energética que contemple as várias fontes de energia, possibilitando com isso segurança no fornecimento de energia, com baixo impacto ambiental.

• Ampliação da participação de fontes renováveis de energia na matriz energética brasileira, incluindo-se aí uma maior penetração da energia eólica, solar e biomassa, além de hidrelétricas reversíveis, adaptando-se algumas usinas hidrelétricas existentes para esse fim.

• Implementação de programas de eficiência energética, redução de perda e conservação de energia em todos os setores. Ênfase no gerenciamento pelo lado da demanda.

• Recuperação da importância e do pioneirismo do Brasil na produção de energia limpa e renovável, com crescimento da produção e da produtividade, especialmente em terras degradadas.

• Valorização da diversidade de fontes e das características regionais na redefinição da matriz energética brasileira, procurando equilibrar a busca de autossuficiência com sustentabilidade.

• Resgate do papel da Petrobras e sua valorização como instrumento vital da política energética brasileira.

Em relação às propostas, destacamos as seguintes:

• Definir de forma clara o papel do etanol anidro e hidratado na matriz de combustíveis brasileira e estabelecimento de metas.

• Adotar política tributária que considere as vantagens ambientais dos biocombustíveis.

• Realizar investimentos em tecnologias de baixo carbono, com atenção especial para capacitar o país a instalar uma indústria fotovoltaica competitiva.

• Incentivar a microgeração distribuída, de forma a permitir que o cidadão possa gerar parte de seu consumo próprio através do uso da energia solar e eólica.

• Equalizar as regras de incentivos, subsídios e financiamentos públicos para as diversas fontes de energia. Estimular a troca da iluminação pública por lâmpadas de baixo consumo energético e menor impacto na biodiversidade.

• Estimular redes inteligentes de energia.

• Fortalecer o Procel e o Conpet, visando dinamizar os programas de eficiência energética.

Cabe destacar que no item “Cidades Sustentáveis e Mobilidade Urbana”, temos o seguinte compromisso e proposta, respectivamente:

• O papel do Governo Federal é crucial. Será protagonista na implantação de políticas públicas de uso de energias alternativas nas cidades, possibilitando a venda de excedentes, além de fixação de padrões rigorosos de eficiência energética.

• Utilizar instrumentos econômicos para estimular o consumo de combustíveis mais limpos, com eliminação acelerada daqueles com maior teor de enxofre em todo o território nacional. Ênfase na implantação dos programas de inspeção e manutenção veicular em articulação com estados e municípios.

Transportes:

Em relação ao tema, no item “Cidades Sustentáveis e Mobilidade Urbana”, afirmamos os seguintes compromissos e propostas:

Compromissos:
• Não são mais admissíveis políticas de estímulo ao transporte individual para se combater a crise, quando as mesmas provocam os enormes congestionamentos nas cidades brasileiras médias e grandes. Há necessidade de se resgatar a perspectiva de longo prazo, cabendo ao Governo Federal, em articulação com os estados e municípios, repensar novas estratégias de financiamento, com a finalidade de garantir mecanismos de implementação das várias legislações que pesam sobre as cidades.
• As políticas econômicas vão viabilizar e estimular claramente políticas urbanas inovadoras, estimulando o transporte público sustentável, o que inclui, entre outras iniciativas, a adoção de combustíveis renováveis. E na gestão de resíduos, adotaremos estímulos tributários para viabilizar a logística reversa.

Propostas:

• Implementar a Política Nacional de Mobilidade Urbana, priorizando o transporte público, bem como o transporte não motorizado nas cidades brasileiras, tornando-os alternativas viáveis, seguras e concretas em relação ao transporte individual.
• Buscar uma mobilidade sustentável para as cidades brasileiras, por meio da integração dos diversos modais de transporte público em operação, pela continuidade e aceleração das obras em curso, pela expansão dos atendimentos às regiões metropolitanas e pelo incentivo à incorporação de inovações nas soluções já existentes e a serem implementadas.

• Articular os diversos agentes envolvidos, no âmbito estadual e municipal, para aumentar a integração do transporte urbano com outras políticas públicas, como o uso do solo, habitação e meio ambiente, buscando atender, inclusive, aos novos conglomerados urbanos.

• Apoiar a inovação e a criação de soluções tecnológicas originais e a busca de recursos para investimentos como parcerias público-privadas (PPPs) e concessões de operações urbanas.

• Apoiar os estados e municípios na implantação de centros integrados de logística, na busca de soluções para a redução de trânsito de veículos pesados nos grandes centros e na implantação de sistemas cicloviários nas cidades.

• Incentivar os transportes públicos, principalmente os sobre trilhos, destinando recursos – inclusive subsidiados – para obras estruturantes nos principais centros urbanos

• Incentivar a renovação e a modernização da frota de trens, metrôs e ônibus, impondo novos parâmetros de qualidade. Incentivar a utilização de veículos com motores híbridos, movidos a hidrogênio e elétricos, entre outros.

• Incentivar a adoção de horários variados para jornadas de trabalho, evitando-se os períodos de rush, e incentivar a adoção de modalidades de teletrabalho nas atividades e/ou setores onde isso for possível, como forma de reduzir deslocamentos desnecessários e pressões adicionais de demanda sobre o setor de transportes.

• Apoiar novos modais alternativos de transporte, como os sistemas cicloviários.

• Transferir a malha ferroviária metropolitana de cargas para os estados – quando as linhas não estiverem sendo usadas – para a implantação de projetos de trens metropolitanos.

• Garantir padrões rigorosos de qualidade do ar dos centros urbanos brasileiros por meio do fortalecimento dos programas Proconve e Promotos, com as atualizações necessárias de acordo com a Organização Mundial de Saúde.

• Utilizar instrumentos econômicos para estimular o consumo de combustíveis mais limpos, com eliminação acelerada daqueles com maior teor de enxofre em todo o território nacional. Ênfase na implantação dos programas de inspeção e manutenção veicular em articulação com estados e municípios.

• Adotar ferramentas macroeconômicas – em coordenação com estados e municípios – que viabilizem claramente as políticas urbanas sustentáveis, como o transporte público, o transporte individual não motorizado, a construção de edifícios sustentáveis, a implantação de áreas verdes para evitar as ilhas de calor, e o uso de energia solar e de microturbinas eólicas nas cidades, possibilitando a venda de excedentes.”

Pronunciamento da presidente Dilma Rousseff na Cúpula do Clima da ONU:

Nova Iorque-EUA, 23 de setembro de 2014

Excelentíssimo senhor Sam Kutesa, presidente da 69ª Assembleia Geral das Nações Unidas. Excelentíssimas senhoras e senhores chefes de estado e de governo participantes da Cúpula do Clima 2014. Senhoras e senhores representantes da sociedade civil.

Congratulo-me com o Secretário Geral das Nações Unidas pela convocação da Cúpula do Clima.

No último domingo, centenas de milhares de pessoas pediram nas ruas avanços concretos nas negociações em curso no âmbito da Convenção-Quadro sobre Mudança do Clima.

O Brasil está sintonizado com este anseio. Temos participado ativamente destas negociações. Defendemos a adoção coletiva de medidas justas, ambiciosas, equilibradas e eficazes para enfrentar este desafio.

Reafirmo que o novo acordo climático precisa ser universal, ambicioso e legalmente vinculante, respeitando os princípios e os dispositivos da Convenção-Quadro, em particular os princípios de equidade e das responsabilidades comuns, porém diferenciadas.

Este acordo deverá ser robusto em termos de mitigação, adaptação e meios de implementação. O Brasil almeja um acordo climático global, que promova o desenvolvimento sustentável. O crescimento das nossas economias é compatível com a redução de emissões.

No Brasil, estamos fazendo isso. Ao mesmo tempo em que diminuímos a pobreza e a desigualdade social, protegemos o meio ambiente. Nos últimos 12 anos, temos tido resultados extraordinários.

Em 2009, na Conferência de Copenhagen, anunciamos o compromisso voluntário de reduzir entre 36 e 39%, as nossas emissões projetadas até 2020.

Desde então, pusemos em marcha ações decisivas. Nosso esforço tem dado grandes resultados.

Ao longo dos últimos 10 anos, o desmatamento no Brasil foi reduzido em 79%.

Entre 2010 e 2013, deixamos de lançar na atmosfera a cada ano, em média, 650 milhões de toneladas de dióxido de carbono. Alcançamos em todos esses anos as quatro menores taxas de desmatamento de nossa história.

As reduções voluntárias do Brasil contribuem de maneira significativa para a diminuição das emissões globais no horizonte de 2020.

Senhor Presidente, prezados colegas Chefes de Estado e de Governo.

O Brasil, portanto, não anuncia promessas. Mostra resultados.

Nossa determinação em enfrentar a mudança do clima não se limita à Amazônia brasileira.

Estamos cooperando com os países da Bacia Amazônica em ações de monitoramento e de combate ao desmatamento. Devemos também contribuir para a redução do desmatamento com os países da Bacia do Congo.

Internamente, adotamos planos setoriais para a redução do desmatamento no chamado Cerrado brasileiro; para o aumento das energias renováveis e a promoção da Agricultura de Baixo Carbono.

O Brasil é um grande produtor de alimentos. Temos consciência que as técnicas agrícolas de baixo carbono, ao mesmo tempo em que reduzem emissões, elevam a produtividade do setor agrícola.

Por sua vez, na pequena agricultura familiar, nela as práticas agroecológicas, ajudam a reduzir a pobreza no campo. Ambos programas são decisivos para a segurança alimentar e nutricional de milhões de brasileiros.

A produção agrícola de grãos se dá sobretudo pelo aumento da produtividade com uma expansão menor da área agrícola plantada. Tamanho crescimento da produtividade só é possível com muita pesquisa e inovação, muito investimento e intenso apoio do governo federal.

Tudo isso desfaz a pretensa contradição entre produção agrícola e proteção ao meio ambiente. Prova que é possível crescer, incluir, conservar e proteger o meio ambiente, que é o lema da reunião do clima Rio+20.

Senhor Presidente,

Desastres naturais relacionados à mudança do clima têm ceifado vidas e afetado as atividades econômicas em todo o mundo. Num quadro de injustiça ambiental, as populações pobres são as mais vulneráveis, principalmente nos grande centros urbanos.

No Brasil, implementamos a Política Nacional de Prevenção e Monitoramento de Desastres Naturais, com o objetivo de impedir que esses desastres causem danos às pessoas, com perdas de vidas, ao patrimônio e ao meio ambiente.

Até o final deste ano, no marco desta política nacional de prevenção e monitoramento de desastres naturais, submeteremos à sociedade brasileira o plano nacional de adaptação.

Os custos para enfrentar a mudança do clima são elevados, mas os benefícios compensam.

Precisamos reverter a lógica de que o combate à mudança do clima é danoso à economia. A redução das emissões e ações de adaptação devem ser reconhecidas como fonte de riqueza, de modo a atrair investimentos e lastrear novas ações de desenvolvimento sustentável.

Historicamente, os países desenvolvidos alcançaram o nível de bem estar de suas sociedades graças a um modelo de desenvolvimento, baseado em altas taxas de emissões de gases danosos ao clima, ceifando florestas e utilizando práticas nocivas ao meio ambiente.

Nós não queremos repetir esse modelo.

Mas não renunciaremos ao imperativo de reduzir as desigualdades e elevar o padrão de vida da nossa gente.

Nós, países em desenvolvimento, temos igual direito ao bem-estar. E estamos provando que um modelo socialmente justo e ambientalmente sustentável é possível. O Brasil é um exemplo disso

Muito obrigada.

* André Trigueiro é jornalista com pós-graduação em Gestão Ambiental pela Coppe-UFRJ onde hoje leciona a disciplina geopolítica ambiental, professor e criador do curso de Jornalismo Ambiental da PUC-RJ, autor do livro Mundo Sustentável – Abrindo Espaço na Mídia para um Planeta em Transformação, coordenador editorial e um dos autores dos livros Meio Ambiente no Século XXI, e Espiritismo e Ecologia, lançado na Bienal Internacional do Livro, no Rio de Janeiro, pela Editora FEB, em 2009. É apresentador do Jornal das Dez e editor chefe do programa Cidades e Soluções, da Globo News. É também comentarista da Rádio CBN e colaborador voluntário da Rádio Rio de Janeiro.

** Publicado originalmente no site Mundo Sustentável.

(Mundo Sustentável)

“Sonâmbulos” decidem a sorte de conferência climática em Bonn (IPS)

24/10/2014 – 10h52

por Stephen Leahy, da IPS

huracan “Sonâmbulos” decidem a sorte de conferência climática em Bonn

Bonn, Alemanha, 24/10/2014 – As 410 mil pessoas que saíram às ruas para reclamar medidas durante a Cúpula do Clima da ONU se indignariam diante dos atrasos e das posturas políticas de sempre que se observa em uma rodada fundamental das negociações para acordar um tratado climático mundial, em curso nesta cidade alemã.

As declarações dos países presentes na conferência, que começou no dia 20 e terminará no dia 25, no Centro Mundial de Congressos de Bonn, ignoraram os pedidos dos organizadores para serem breves em suas declarações de abertura para ser possível trabalhar na última semana de conversações antes da vigésima Conferência das Partes (COP 20) da Convenção Marco das Nações Unidas sobre a Mudança Climática que acontecerá em Lima, no Peru, entre 1º e 12 de dezembro.

A COP 20 acordará um projeto de tratado climático destinado a evitar o catastrófico superaquecimento do planeta. Um ano mais tarde, os governantes de quase 200 Estados deverão assinar em Paris um novo convênio sobre o clima. Se o resultado das negociações não for contundente e não se conseguir garantir o rápido abandono do uso de combustíveis fósseis, centenas de milhões de pessoas sofrerão e países inteiros entrarão em colapso.

O projeto atual do tratado é muito fraco e os delegados pecam pelo “sonambulismo” em Bonn, enquanto “os dados científicos sobre o clima se agravam”, afirmou aos negociadores presentes, Hilary Chiew, da Rede do Terceiro Mundo.

Os delegados estão habituados a ouvir uma ou duas “intervenções” oficiais por parte da audiência, que tem um limite de tempo restrito e frequentemente não superam os 90 segundos. Esses discursos, apesar da paixão e eloquência de muitos, raramente comovem os delegados que, em sua maioria, se limita a seguir as instruções dadas por seus governos. “Apegar-se às posturas não é negociar”, recordou o copresidente da conferência, Kishan Kumarsingh, de Trinidad e Tobago.

Em Bonn há poucos membros da sociedade civil que podem presenciar quantos países se apegaram às suas posições de curto prazo e defensoras de seus próprios interesses, em lugar de enfrentar o maior desafio que sofre a humanidade. Depois de 20 anos, essas negociações se transformaram “no mesmo de sempre” e parece que continuarão assim por mais 20 anos, segundo os ativistas. “Só um movimento social mundial obrigará as nações a agirem”, afirmou Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, diretor do Instituto de Potsdam para a Pesquisa do Impacto Climático, da Alemanha.

Schellnhuber, reconhecido especialista e ex-assessor científico do governo alemão, não se encontra em Bonn, mas participou da Cúpula do Clima da Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU) em setembro, em Nova York, Estados Unidos, junto com os governantes de 120 países. Novamente, o resultado desse encontro ficou em puros discursos sem compromissos de ação, afirmou à IPS.

Para Schellnhuber, a Cúpula da ONU foi um fracasso, ao contrário da “impressionante” e “inspiradora” Marcha do Povo pelo Clima que a acompanhou e da qual participaram cerca de 410 mil pessoas nas ruas de Manhattan. A única coisa que os países acordaram até agora é a meta de elevação máxima de dois graus na temperatura média mundial e, embora esse aumento “não tenha antecedentes na história humana”, é muito melhor do que três ou mais graus, acrescentou.

Alcançar essa meta ainda é possível, segundo o informe Enfrentar o Desafio da Mudança Climática, redigido pelos principais especialistas em clima e energia e que descreve várias medidas, entre elas o aumento da eficiência energética em todos os setores. A refração dos prédios, por exemplo, pode reduzir o consumo de energia entre 70% e 90%. Também é necessário um preço do carbono que reflita o enorme custo sanitário e ambiental que implica a queima dos combustíveis fósseis, bem como a expansão da energia solar e eólica e o fechamento de todas as centrais movidas a carvão, diz o estudo.

O mais importante é que os governos devem assumir o clima como uma prioridade. Alemanha e Dinamarca estão bem encaminhadas para uma economia baixa em carbono e se beneficiam de menor contaminação e da criação de um novo setor econômico, segundo os especialistas.

Para que todos os governos incorporem o clima como sua prioridade será preciso um movimento social mundial com dezenas de milhões de pessoas. Uma vez que o setor empresarial se dê conta de que a transição para um mundo baixo em carbono está em marcha, pressionará os governos para que apliquem as políticas necessárias. “As soluções para a mudança climática são a maior oportunidade de negócios na história”, enfatizou Schellnhuber. Envolverde/IPS

(IPS)

Rising sea levels of 1.8 meters in worst-case scenario, researchers calculate (Science Daily)

Date: October 14, 2014

Source: University of Copenhagen

Summary: The climate is getting warmer, the ice sheets are melting and sea levels are rising — but how much? The report of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013 was based on the best available estimates of future sea levels, but the panel was not able to come up with an upper limit for sea level rise within this century. Now researchers have calculated the risk for a worst-case scenario. The results indicate that at worst, the sea level would rise a maximum of 1.8 meters.


The worst-case sea level projections is shown in red. There is 95% certainty that sea level will not rise faster than this upper-limit. Purple shows the likely range of sea level rise as projected in the IPCC fifth assessment report under a scenario with rising emissions throughout the 21st century (RCP8.5). Credit: Aslak Grinsted, NBI

The climate is getting warmer, the ice sheets are melting and sea levels are rising — but how much? The report of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013 was based on the best available estimates of future sea levels, but the panel was not able to come up with an upper limit for sea level rise within this century. Now researchers from the Niels Bohr Institute and their colleagues have calculated the risk for a worst-case scenario. The results indicate that at worst, the sea level would rise a maximum of 1.8 meters.

The results are published in the scientific journal Environmental Research Letters.

What causes the sea to rise is when all the water that is now frozen as ice and lies on land melts and flows into the sea. It is first and foremost about the two large, kilometer-thick ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica, but also mountain glaciers.

In addition, large amounts of groundwater is pumped for both drinking water and agricultural use in many parts of the world and more groundwater is pumped than seeps back down into the ground, so this water also ends up in the oceans.

Finally, what happens is that when the climate gets warmer, the oceans also get warmer and hot water expands and takes up more space. But how much do the experts expect the sea levels to rise during this century at the maximum?

Melting of the ice sheets

“We wanted to try to calculate an upper limit for the rise in sea level and the biggest question is the melting of the ice sheets and how quickly this will happen. The IPCC restricted their projektions to only using results based on models of each process that contributes to sea level. But the greatest uncertainty in assessing the evolution of sea levels is that ice sheet models have only a limited ability to capture the key driving forces in the dynamics of the ice sheets in relation to climatic impact,” Aslak Grinsted, Associate Professor at the Centre for Ice and Climate at the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen.

Aslak Grinsted has therefore, in collaboration with researchers from England and China, worked out new calculations. The researchers have combined the IPCC numbers with published data about the expectations within the ice-sheet expert community for the evolution, including the risk for the collapse of parts of Antarctica and how quickly such a collapse would take place.

“We have created a picture of the propable limits for how much global sea levels will rise in this century. Our calculations show that the seas will likely rise around 80 cm. An increase of more than 180 cm has a likelihood of less than 5 percent. We find that a rise in sea levels of more than 2 meters is improbable,” Aslak Grinsted, but points that the results only concern this century and the sea levels will continue to rise for centuries to come.

Journal Reference:

  1. S Jevrejeva, A Grinsted, J C Moore. Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100. Environmental Research Letters, 2014; 9 (10): 104008 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008

Teachable moments about climate change (Science Daily)

Date: October 14, 2014

Source: Springer Science+Business Media

Summary: Mapping first-hand experience of extreme weather conditions helps to target climate education efforts. First-hand experience of extreme weather often makes people change their minds about the realities of climate change. That’s because people are simply more aware of an extreme weather event the closer they are to its core, and the more intense the incidence is.


First-hand experience of extreme weather often makes people change their minds about the realities of climate change. That’s because people are simply more aware of an extreme weather event the closer they are to its core, and the more intense the incidence is. So says Peter Howe of Utah State University in the US, who led a study in Springer’s journal Climatic Change Letters about people’s ability to accurately recall living through extreme weather events. It also focused on how people’s proximity to such events — the so-called “shadow of experience” — aids their awareness of climatic episodes.

Howe’s team mapped data on people’s extreme weather perceptions from a national survey of 1,008 US adults conducted by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication and George Mason Center for Climate Change Communication. The data were then overlaid on other maps of actual recorded events such as droughts, hurricanes and tornadoes.

They found that the public tends to accurately recall and report on extreme weather conditions. This is particularly true for hurricanes and tornadoes that cause large-scale destruction and personal suffering as well as events that attract media coverage. Drought, on the other hand, is much more difficult to perceive because it happens slowly over a longer period of time. It also generally affects a larger area of land. Actually, most people only believe that they have experienced a drought after 25 weeks of persistently dry conditions.

The closer people were to a weather event, the more intense and destructive it was and the longer it lasted, the better are the chances that people will note it. Howe says the proximity effect may be explained by an increased likelihood of personally suffering harm or property damage as one approaches the site of the event, as well as environmental cues (such as dark clouds or high winds) and social cues (such as tornado sirens or warnings).

“The shadow of experience — or the area within which people are more likely to report that they have experienced extreme events — increases as the magnitude of an event increases,” explains Howe. “Indirect damage through disruption of services, utilities, businesses, social networks, and local economies are one likely cause for the tendency of people to report personally experiencing events even if they live many kilometers away and did not suffer direct personal damage.”

Howe and his team believe that maps showing the shadows of experience of extreme weather could be used to focus disaster preparedness and climate education efforts after an event. They advise weathercasters to provide more climate change context when extreme weather events happen, and to educate their viewers about the climatic reasons behind them. In the case of droughts, the public should be helped to recognize the phenomenon as it is happening and to take specific steps to deal with it.


Journal Reference:

  1. Peter D. Howe, Hilary Boudet, Anthony Leiserowitz, Edward W. Maibach. Mapping the shadow of experience of extreme weather events. Climatic Change, 2014; DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1253-6

Weather history ‘time machine’ created (Science Daily)

Date: October 15, 2014

Source: San Diego State University

Summary: A software program that allows climate researchers to access historical climate data for the entire global surface (excluding the poles) has been developed. This software include the oceans, and is based statistical research into historical climates.

During the 1930s, North America endured the Dust Bowl, a prolonged era of dryness that withered crops and dramatically altered where the population settled. Land-based precipitation records from the years leading up to the Dust Bowl are consistent with the telltale drying-out period associated with a persistent dry weather pattern, but they can’t explain why the drought was so pronounced and long-lasting.

The mystery lies in the fact that land-based precipitation tells only part of the climate story.Building accurate computer reconstructions of historical global precipitation is tricky business. The statistical models are very complicated, the historical data is often full of holes, and researchers invariably have to make educated guesses at correcting for sampling errors.

Hard science

The high degree of difficulty and expertise required means that relatively few climate scientists have been able to base their research on accurate models of historical precipitation. Now, a new software program developed by a research team including San Diego State University Distinguished Professor of Mathematics and Statistics Samuel Shen will democratize this ability, allowing far more researchers access to these models.

“In the past, only a couple dozen scientists could do these reconstructions,” Shen said. “Now, anybody can play with this user-friendly software, use it to inform their research, and develop new models and hypotheses. This new tool brings historical precipitation reconstruction from a ‘rocket science’ to a ‘toy science.'”

The National Science Foundation-funded project is a collaboration between Shen, University of Maryland atmospheric scientist Phillip A. Arkin and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climatologist Thomas M. Smith.

Predicting past patterns

Prescribed oceanic patterns are useful for predicting large weather anomalies. Prolonged dry or wet spells over certain regions can reliably tell you whether, for instance, North America will undergo an oceanic weather pattern such as the El Nino or La Nina patterns. The problem for historical models is that reliable data exists from only a small percentage of Earth’s surface. About eighty-four percent of all rain falls in the middle of the ocean with no one to record it. Satellite weather tracking is only a few decades old, so for historical models, researchers must fill in the gaps based on the data that does exist.

Shen, who co-directs SDSU’s Center for Climate and Sustainability Studies Area of Excellence, is an expert in minimizing error size inside model simulations. In the case of climate science, that means making the historical fill-in-the-gap guesses as accurate as possible.Shen and his SDSU graduate students Nancy Tafolla and Barbara Sperberg produced a user-friendly, technologically advanced piece of software that does the statistical heavy lifting for researchers. The program, known as SOGP 1.0, is based on research published last month in the Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. The group released SOGP 1.0 to the public last week, available by request.

SOGP 1.0, which stands for a statistical technique known as spectral optimal gridding of precipitation, is based on the MATLAB programming language, commonly used in science and engineering. It reconstructs precipitation records for the entire globe (excluding the Polar Regions) between the years 1900 and 2011 and allows researchers to zoom in on particular regions and timeframes.

New tool for climate change models

For example, Shen referenced a region in the middle of the Pacific Ocean that sometimes glows bright red on the computer model, indicating extreme dryness, and sometimes dark blue, indicating an unusually wet year. When either of these climate events occur, he said, it’s almost certain that North American weather will respond to these patterns, sometimes in a way that lasts several years.

“The tropical Pacific is the engine of climate,” Shen explained.

In the Dust Bowl example, the SOGP program shows extreme dryness in the tropical Pacific in the late 1920s and early 1930s — a harbinger of a prolonged dry weather event in North America. Combining this data with land-record data, the model can retroactively demonstrate the Dust Bowl’s especially brutal dry spell.

“If you include the ocean’s precipitation signal, the drought signal is amplified,” Shen said. “We can understand the 1930s Dust Bowl better by knowing the oceanic conditions.”

The program isn’t a tool meant to look exclusively at the past, though. Shen hopes that its ease of use will encourage climate scientists to incorporate this historical data into their own models, improving our future predictions of climate change.

Researchers interested in using SOGP 1.0 can request the software package as well as the digital datasets used by the program by e-mailing sogp.precip@gmail.com with the subject line, “SOGP precipitation product request,” followed by your name, affiliation, position, and the purpose for which you intend to use the program.

Journal Reference:

  1. Samuel S. P. Shen, Nancy Tafolla, Thomas M. Smith, Phillip A. Arkin. Multivariate Regression Reconstruction and Its Sampling Error for the Quasi-Global Annual Precipitation from 1900 to 2011. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 2014; 71 (9): 3250 DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-0301.1

Climate change in the news – Oct 14, 2014 (DISCCRS)

DISCCRSnews Digest, Vol 83, Issue 2

NEWS

REUTERS SUMMIT-Companies woefully unprepared for climate events-S&P – Reuters – October 13, 2014 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/13/climatechange-summit-sp-idUSL6N0S821A20141013

    Related: REUTERS SUMMIT-E.ON wants deep EU emissions cuts, early carbon trade reform – Reuters – October 13, 2014 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/13/climatechange-summit-eon-idUSL6N0S441G20141013

    Related: REUTERS SUMMIT-Drip, drip: Water startups slowly tap a glacial industry – Reuters – October 13, 2014 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/13/climatechange-summit-water-tech-reuters-idUSL3N0S52ND20141013

Russia signs deals with China to help weather sanctions – Reuters – October 13, 2014 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/13/us-russia-china-banks-idUSKCN0I20WG20141013

Pentagon: Climate Change Poses ?Immediate Risks? – Climate Central – October 13, 2014 – http://www.climatecentral.org/news/pentagon-climate-change-immediate-risks-18174

The Case for a Climate Goal Other Than Two Degrees Celsius – Yale Environment 360 – October 8, 2014 – http://e360.yale.edu/feature/interview_david_victor_the_case_for_a_climate_goal_other_than_two_degrees_celsius/2812/

A Community-Driven Framework for Climate Reconstructions – Eos – October 7, 2014 – http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014EO400001/abstract

Climate Moms (and Dads) Fight Global Warming – ClimateWire (via Scientific American) – October 8, 2014 – http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-moms-and-dads-fight-global-warming/

Satellite data shows U.S. methane ?hot spot? bigger than expected – American Geophysical Union – NASA and University of Michigan Joint Release – October 9, 2014 – http://news.agu.org/press-release/satellite-data-shows-u-s-methane-hot-spot-bigger-than-expected/

Fantastic journey: why animals are driven to migrate – Guardian – October 12, 2014 – http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/13/the-worlds-mass-autumn-animal-migration

Fish Fail to Adapt to Rising CO2 Levels: Study – Climate Central – October 11, 2014 – http://www.climatecentral.org/news/fish-adaptation-co2-levels-18163

Acid damage to coral reefs could cost $1 trillion – New Scientist – October 8, 2014 – http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26344-acid-damage-to-coral-reefs-could-cost-1-trillion.html#.VDxajyiv1sQ

Sea level rise over past century unmatched in 6,000 years, says study – Guardian – October 13, 2014 – http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/14/sea-level-rise-unmatched-6000-years-global-warming

Antarctic Sea Ice Reaches New Record Maximum – NASA Press Release (via AAAS EurekAlert) – October 7, 2014 – http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-new-record-maximum/#.VDxZhiiv1sQ

    Related: Expanding Antarctic Sea Ice is Flooding ?Warning Bell? – Climate Central – October 13, 2014 – http://www.climatecentral.org/news/antarctica-ice-melt-sea-level-18155

97% of companies fail to provide data on key sustainability indicators – Guardian – October 13, 2014 – http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2014/oct/13/97-companies-fail-to-provide-data-key-sustainability-indicators-stocck-exchange-report

New ?Slurry? Could Make Carbon Capture More Efficient – Climate Central – October 10, 2014 – http://www.climatecentral.org/news/study-slurry-could-make-ccs-more-efficient-18164

Solar dimming reflects complexity of climate change – Climate News Network – October 13, 2014 – http://www.climatenewsnetwork.net/2014/10/solar-dimming-reflects-complexity-of-climate-change/

World of clean energy ?feasible? by mid-century – Climate News Network – October 10, 2014 – http://www.climatenewsnetwork.net/2014/10/world-of-clean-energy-feasible-by-mid-century/

FORUM

Kerry: Address climate change before it’s too late – Associated Press – October 9, 2014 a- By Steve LeBlanc – http://bigstory.ap.org/article/c0fcc74ddd664033b3506b5d886fe494/kerry-address-climate-change-its-too-late

No Paris climate deal better than bad one ? former French climate minister – Guardian – October 10, 2014 – By Arthur Neslen – http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/10/no-paris-climate-deal-better-than-bad-one-former-french-climate-minister

We can meet 2C climate target ? and here’s how, say energy experts – Guardian – October 10, 2014 – By Stephen Leahy – http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/10/we-can-meet-c2-climate-target-and-heres-how-say-energy-experts

Pentagon: global warming will change how US military trains and goes to war (The Guardian)

Climate change to become immediate factor for all strategic, operational and planning decisions

theguardian.com, Monday 13 October 2014 18.37 BST

Global warming and climate change will change how US military trains and goes to war An Air Force reserve pararescueman from the 920th Rescue Wing scans the ravaged Texas landscape in the aftermath of hurricane Ike. Photograph: Tech. Sgt. Paul Flipse/U.S. Air Force photo

Global warming is changing the way the US trains for and goes to war – affecting war games, weapons systems, training exercises, and military installations – according to the Pentagon.

The defence secretary, Chuck Hagel, will tell a high-level meeting of military leaders on Monday that the Pentagon is undertaking sweeping changes to operation systems and installations to keep up with a growing threat of rising seas, droughts, and natural disasters caused by climate change.

“A changing climate will have real impacts on our military and the way it executes its missions,” Hagel wrote in his introduction to a Pentagon report out today. “We are considering the impacts of climate change in our war games and defence planning scenarios.”

The Pentagon’s strategic planners have for years viewed climate change as a “threat multiplier”– worsening old conflicts and potentially provoking new clashes over migration and shortages of food and water in the Middle East, Africa and Asia, and opening up new military challenges in a melting Arctic.

But with Monday’s report, climate change moved from potential threat to an immediate factor in a wide range of operational and budgeting decisions.

“It makes it a reality that climate change indeed is a risk today, and we need to plan, programme and budget for it now and into the future,” said Sherri Goodman, chief executive of the military advisory board, a group of former generals and other high-ranking officers that studies US national security.

The report – unveiled at a meeting of more than 30 defence ministers from the Americas and Europe – also signalled US intention to take a lead role at international climate negotiations in Lima in December.

From now on, the military will factor climate change into a host of day-to-day decisions, a senior defence official told a conference call with reporters.

“It’s about being baked into things we are already doing, and incorporated into all the other things we are doing,” he said.

Those decisions could include war games, training exercises, and purchasing decisions – which could all be affected by conditions such as sea-level rise, heat waves, and drought.

War games scenarios would now factor in floods or storms instead of assuming optimal conditions, said Goodman. “You could make the game more complex with sea-level rise, and extreme weather events.”

She said the navy would have to test sonar and other systems under the changing ocean chemistry. The military will have to adapt to hotter temperatures.

One of the biggest and most costly decisions ahead is the location of some 7,000 US military sites.

As the report acknowledged, US military installations and personnel are already exposed to climate change. The Hampton Roads area in Virginia – which houses the biggest concentration of US forces – already floods during high tides and severe storms, and could see an additional 1.5 feet of sea level rise in the next 20 years.

Meanwhile, military bases in the south-west are coping with water and electricity shortages, under recurring droughts. Arctic land-based installations are shifting because of melting permafrost, while retreating sea ice is changing naval requirements.

The Pentagon is not planning a wholesale relocation of bases, the officials told the call. But they said the military was already bringing in sandbags and moving generators out of basements in low-lying areas. It was also shelving ideas for new construction on flood plains.

Other potential changes include cuts to outdoor training exercises – because of heat waves, or increased weapons maintenance costs and repairs because of heat and dust.

“As we think about changing weather patterns we have to think hard about where operations might be conducted and whether we need to change the assumptions about what kind of air breathing conditions … what kind of sea state we might expect in an operating environment, and what impact they might have.”

The report said troops could also be at greater risk of infectious diseases, which spread more rapidly in hotter temperatures.

Hagel in comments to reporters at the weekend said the Pentagon anticipated an increase in humanitarian missions, because of natural disasters and recurring famines.

He also said the Arctic presented a growing military challenge.

“We see an Arctic that is melting, meaning that most likely a new sea lane will emerge,” he said. “We know that there are significant minerals and natural deposits of oil and natural gas there. That means that nations will compete for those natural resources. That’s never been an issue before. You couldn’t get up there and get anything out of there. We have to manage through what those conditions and new realities are going to bring in the way of potential threats.”

The Pentagon was first instructed by Congress in 2007 to incorporate climate change into its long-term security planning.

But Republicans in Congress have gone on to block the military from preparing for a warmer future, cutting funds for intelligence gathering or testing low-carbon jet fuels.

Officials told the call that planning for the future would help bring down climate-related costs.

“There is a lot you can do to mitigate risk and lower the cost of risks if you acknowledge the risk exists,” the officials said.

Climate change in the news (DISCCRS)

DISCCRSnews Digest, Vol 83, Issue 1 – October 7, 2014

The world is warming faster than we thought – New Scientist – October 5, 2014 – http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26317-the-world-is-warming-faster-than-we-thought.html#.VDMHfCiv1sQ

Past measurements may have missed massive ocean warming – Science – October 5, 2014 – http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2014/10/past-measurements-may-have-missed-massive-ocean-warming

Scientists speed up analysis of human link to wild weather – Thomson Reuters Foundation – October 2, 2014 – http://www.trust.org/item/20141002110649-q0sm3/?source=fiOtherNews3

World falling behind 2020 plan for nature protection: UN – Reuters – October 6, 2014 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/06/us-environment-biodiversity-idUSKCN0HV08Q20141006

Ditch U.N. temperature target for global warming, study says – Reuters – October 1, 2014 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/01/us-climatechange-target-idUSKCN0HQ4N620141001

Global officials to issue communique warning of economic risk – Reuters – October 4, 2014 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/04/imf-development-idUSL2N0RZ0IV20141004

‘Large firms may be overstating value of earnings by failing to prepare for impact of global warming’ – Business World – October 6, 2014 – http://www.independent.ie/business/world/large-firms-may-be-overstating-value-of-earnings-by-failing-to-prepare-for-impact-of-global-warming-30641946.html

Argonne researchers create more accurate model for greenhouse gases from peatlands – U.S. Department of Energy?s Argonne National Laboratory Press Release (via AAAS EurekAlert) – October 2, 2014 – http://www.anl.gov/articles/argonne-researchers-create-more-accurate-model-greenhouse-gases-peatlands

Canada launches world’s largest commercial carbon-capture project – Reuters – October 1, 2014 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/01/canada-carboncapture-idUSL2N0RW1D620141001

Lack of ice forces some 35,000 walruses to chill on Alaska shore – Reuters – October 1, 2014 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/02/us-usa-climatechange-walruses-idUSKCN0HR05520141002

    Related: Walrus mass on Alaska beach – in pictures – Guardian – October 1, 2014 – http://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2014/oct/01/walrus-mass-on-alaska-beach-in-pictures

    Related: US reroutes flights around Alaska beach in attempt to avoid walrus stampede – Guardian – October 2, 2014 – http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/01/walrus-alaska-beach-trampled-death

Team advances understanding of the Greenland Ice Sheet?s meltwater channels – U.S. Department of Energy?s Los Alamos National Laboratory Press Release (via AAAS EurekAlert) – October 1, 2014 – http://www.lanl.gov/discover/news-release-archive/2014/October/10.01-greenlands-ice-sheets.php

Changing Antarctic waters could trigger steep rise in sea levels – Australian Research Council Press Release (via AAAS EurekAlert) – October 1, 2014 – https://www.climatescience.org.au/content/785-changing-antarctic-waters-could-trigger-steep-rise-sea-levels

Oceans Getting Hotter Than Anybody Realized – Climate Central – October 5, 2014 – http://www.climatecentral.org/oceans

Fish failing to adapt to rising carbon dioxide levels in ocean – Guardian – October 6, 2014 – http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/06/fish-failing-to-adapt-to-rising-carbon-dioxide-levels-in-ocean

London’s famous red phone box goes green and solar-powered – Thomson Reuters Foundation – October 1, 2014 – http://www.trust.org/item/20141001171721-aapou/?source=fiOtherNews3

Glasgow becomes first university in Europe to divest from fossil fuels (The Guardian)

University court votes to divest £18m from fossil fuel industry in what campaigners call ‘dramatic beachhead’

The Guardian, Wednesday 8 October 2014 16.20 BST

Divest and Fossil free student campaign in GlasgowGlasgow University students hold a silent protest to raise awareness of the divestment from fossil fuels campaign. Photograph: Courtesy People & Planet

Glasgow University has become the first academic institution in Europe to divest from the fossil fuel industry, in a turning point for the British arm of the student-led global divestment movement.

After 12 months of campaigning, led by the Glasgow University Climate Action Society and involving over 1,300 students, the university court on Wednesday voted to begin divesting £18m from the fossil fuel industry and freeze new investments across its entire endowment of £128m.

Describing the result as “a dramatic beachhead for the divestment movement”, American environmentalist Bill McKibben said that it sent a powerful signal that Europe would be “just as powerful in this fight as Australia and North America”.

The founder of climate campaign group 350.org added: “That it comes from Glasgow, which has as much claim to birthing the industrial revolution as any city on Earth, makes it that much more special. Everyone from the Rockefellers on down is realising it’s time to move on.”

As of last month, more than 800 global investors – including foundations such as the Rockefeller Brothers, religious groups, healthcare organisations, universities and local governments – have pledged to withdraw a total of $50bn (£31bn) from fossil fuel investments over the next five years as a result of the campaign which began on college campuses in the United States three years ago.

Writer and activist Naomi Klein said that Glasgow University had joined “a fast-growing global movement providing much-needed hope to the prospect of climate action.”

“Students around the world are making it clear that the institutions entrusted to prepare them for the future cannot simultaneously bet against their future by profiting from corporations that plan to burn many times more carbon than our atmosphere can safely absorb,” said Klein.

“They are sending an unequivocal message that fossil fuel profits are illegitimate – on par with tobacco and arms profits – and that brings us a significant step closer to demanding that our politicians sever ties with this rogue industry and implement bold climate policies based on a clear, progressive ‘polluter pays’ principle.’”

Glasgow University joins thirteen US universities, including Stanford, which have already committed to divest from the fossil fuel industry. In the UK, student unions at Imperial College and University College, London, are demanding that their institutions take similar action. The School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), at the University of London, has agreed to a temporary freeze on investment in advance of a decision on full divestment to be taken later this year.

Decisions are also imminent from the University of Edinburgh, which conducted a staff and student consultation that was overwhelmingly in support of divestment. Oxford University and its colleges, which have an endowment wealth of £3.8bn, the largest of any higher education institution in the UK, is currently conducting a staff-only consultation, after almost 2,000 students and academics joined a campaign calling for divestment.

Andrew Taylor of the People and Planet Network, which has launched over fifty ‘Fossil Free’ campaigns across the UK involving over 15,000 students in the past year, said: “Divestment now has a firm foothold in the UK. Student and academic pressure to get out of fossil fuels is building across the sector. It’s time to stop profiting from wrecking the climate, whether you’re an institution with lots of money like Oxford or Edinburgh, or a world leader in climate research such as the University of East Anglia. Glasgow has helped make the moral case crystal clear and we expect more universities to very soon put their money where their research is.”

Founded in 2011 across just half a dozen US college campuses, the fossil fuel divestment movement has gained remarkable traction over a relatively short period of time. A study by Oxford University last autumn found that it had grown faster than any previous divestment campaign, including those relating to apartheid, armaments and tobacco.

The campaign has recently enjoyed a succession of symbolic boosts.

Last month, the heirs to the Rockefeller oil fortune announced that they were withdrawing funds from fossil fuel investments and in July the World Council of Churches, which represents over half a billion Christians worldwide, decided to pull its investments out of fossil fuel companies.

Writing in the Guardian in April, Archbishop Desmond Tutu urged that “people of conscience need to break their ties with corporations financing the injustice of climate change”.

Antarctic sea ice reaches new record maximum (Science Daily)

Date: October 8, 2014

Source: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

Summary: Sea ice surrounding Antarctica reached a new record high extent this year, covering more of the southern oceans than it has since scientists began a long-term satellite record to map the extent in the late 1970s.

On Sept. 19, 2014, the five-day average of Antarctic sea ice extent exceeded 20 million square kilometers for the first time since 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The red line shows the average maximum extent from 1979-2014. Credit: NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio/Cindy Starr

Sea ice surrounding Antarctica reached a new record high extent this year, covering more of the southern oceans than it has since scientists began a long-term satellite record to map sea ice extent in the late 1970s. The upward trend in the Antarctic, however, is only about a third of the magnitude of the rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.

The new Antarctic sea ice record reflects the diversity and complexity of Earth’s environments, said NASA researchers. Claire Parkinson, a senior scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, has referred to changes in sea ice coverage as a microcosm of global climate change. Just as the temperatures in some regions of the planet are colder than average, even in our warming world, Antarctic sea ice has been increasing and bucking the overall trend of ice loss.

“The planet as a whole is doing what was expected in terms of warming. Sea ice as a whole is decreasing as expected, but just like with global warming, not every location with sea ice will have a downward trend in ice extent,” Parkinson said.

Since the late 1970s, the Arctic has lost an average of 20,800 square miles (53,900 square kilometers) of ice a year; the Antarctic has gained an average of 7,300 square miles (18,900 sq km). On Sept. 19 this year, for the first time ever since 1979, Antarctic sea ice extent exceeded 7.72 million square miles (20 million square kilometers), according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The ice extent stayed above this benchmark extent for several days. The average maximum extent between 1981 and 2010 was 7.23 million square miles (18.72 million square kilometers).

The single-day maximum extent this year was reached on Sept. 20, according to NSIDC data, when the sea ice covered 7.78 million square miles (20.14 million square kilometers). This year’s five-day average maximum was reached on Sept. 22, when sea ice covered 7.76 million square miles (20.11 million square kilometers), according to NSIDC.

A warming climate changes weather patterns, said Walt Meier, a research scientist at Goddard. Sometimes those weather patterns will bring cooler air to some areas. And in the Antarctic, where sea ice circles the continent and covers such a large area, it doesn’t take that much additional ice extent to set a new record.

“Part of it is just the geography and geometry. With no northern barrier around the whole perimeter of the ice, the ice can easily expand if conditions are favorable,” he said.

Researchers are investigating a number of other possible explanations as well. One clue, Parkinson said, could be found around the Antarctic Peninsula — a finger of land stretching up toward South America. There, the temperatures are warming, and in the Bellingshausen Sea just to the west of the peninsula the sea ice is shrinking. Beyond the Bellingshausen Sea and past the Amundsen Sea, lies the Ross Sea — where much of the sea ice growth is occurring.

That suggests that a low-pressure system centered in the Amundsen Sea could be intensifying or becoming more frequent in the area, she said — changing the wind patterns and circulating warm air over the peninsula, while sweeping cold air from the Antarctic continent over the Ross Sea. This, and other wind and lower atmospheric pattern changes, could be influenced by the ozone hole higher up in the atmosphere — a possibility that has received scientific attention in the past several years, Parkinson said.

“The winds really play a big role,” Meier said. They whip around the continent, constantly pushing the thin ice. And if they change direction or get stronger in a more northward direction, he said, they push the ice further and grow the extent. When researchers measure ice extent, they look for areas of ocean where at least 15 percent is covered by sea ice.

While scientists have observed some stronger-than-normal pressure systems — which increase winds — over the last month or so, that element alone is probably not the reason for this year’s record extent, Meier said. To better understand this year and the overall increase in Antarctic sea ice, scientists are looking at other possibilities as well.

Melting ice on the edges of the Antarctic continent could be leading to more fresh, just-above-freezing water, which makes refreezing into sea ice easier, Parkinson said. Or changes in water circulation patterns, bringing colder waters up to the surface around the landmass, could help grow more ice.

Snowfall could be a factor as well, Meier said. Snow landing on thin ice can actually push the thin ice below the water, which then allows cold ocean water to seep up through the ice and flood the snow — leading to a slushy mixture that freezes in the cold atmosphere and adds to the thickness of the ice. This new, thicker ice would be more resilient to melting.

“There hasn’t been one explanation yet that I’d say has become a consensus, where people say, ‘We’ve nailed it, this is why it’s happening,'” Parkinson said. “Our models are improving, but they’re far from perfect. One by one, scientists are figuring out that particular variables are more important than we thought years ago, and one by one those variables are getting incorporated into the models.”

For Antarctica, key variables include the atmospheric and oceanic conditions, as well as the effects of an icy land surface, changing atmospheric chemistry, the ozone hole, months of darkness and more.

“Its really not surprising to people in the climate field that not every location on the face of Earth is acting as expected — it would be amazing if everything did,” Parkinson said. “The Antarctic sea ice is one of those areas where things have not gone entirely as expected. So it’s natural for scientists to ask, ‘OK, this isn’t what we expected, now how can we explain it?'”

Plantio de florestas é estratégia de enfrentamento do aquecimento global (Fapesp)

08 de outubro de 2014

Por Karina Toledo

Agência FAPESP – Em um artigo publicado na seção de opinião do jornal norte-americano The New York Times, em 19 de setembro, Nadine Unger, professora da Yale University, afirmou serem fracas as evidências científicas sobre os benefícios proporcionados pelo reflorestamento e pela redução do desmatamento na mitigação das mudanças climáticas.

O texto causou forte reação na comunidade científica. No dia 22 de setembro, um grupo formado por 31 pesquisadores – vários deles membros do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) da Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU) – divulgou uma carta aberta na qual discordam veementemente das declarações feitas por Unger.

Uma versão resumida do texto foi publicada na seção de opinião do The New York Times no dia 23 de setembro, mesma data em que começou em Nova York a Cúpula da Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU) sobre o Clima.

Na carta resposta, o grupo de cientistas contesta a afirmação de Unger, de que estaria incorreta a “sabedoria convencional” segundo a qual o plantio de árvores auxilia no combate ao aquecimento global. Na avaliação dela, a medida poderia até mesmo agravar o problema climático.

De acordo com os cientistas, as florestas promovem um efeito de resfriamento do clima porque armazenam vastas quantidades de carbono em troncos, galhos, folhas e são capazes de manter esse elemento químico fora da atmosfera enquanto permanecerem intactas e saudáveis.

Segundo o grupo, as florestas também resfriam a atmosfera porque convertem a energia solar em vapor d’água, o que aumenta a refletividade da radiação solar por meio da formação de nuvens, fato negligenciado no trabalho de Unger. Concordam, em parte, com a afirmação da professora de Química Atmosférica em Yale, de que “as cores escuras das árvores absorvem maior quantidade de energia solar e aumentam a temperatura da superfície terrestre”.

Unger afirmou que plantar árvores nos trópicos poderia promover o resfriamento, mas em regiões mais frias causaria aquecimento.

“Ela (Unger) aponta corretamente que florestas refletem menos energia solar do que a neve, as pedras, as pastagens ou o solo, mas ignora o efeito das florestas de aumentar a refletividade do céu acima da terra, por meio das nuvens. Esse efeito é maior nos trópicos”, afirmaram os cientistas.

Unger disse não haver consenso científico em relação aos impactos da mudança de uso da terra promovida pela expansão da agricultura e se o desmatamento resultante teria contribuído para esfriar ou aquecer o planeta.

“Não podemos prever com certeza que o reflorestamento em larga escala ajudaria a controlar as temperaturas em elevação”, disse ela. Argumentos semelhantes já haviam sido apresentados pela cientista em artigo publicado em agosto na Nature Climate Change.

Ainda segundo Unger, os compostos orgânicos voláteis (VOCs, na sigla em inglês) emitidos pelas árvores em resposta a estressores ambientais interagem com poluentes oriundos da queima de combustíveis fósseis aumentando a produção de gases-estufa como metano e ozônio.

Por último, a cientista de Yale afirmou que o carbono sequestrado pelas árvores durante seu crescimento retorna à atmosfera quando elas morrem e que o oxigênio produzido durante a fotossíntese é consumido pela vegetação durante a respiração noturna. “A Amazônia é um sistema fechado que consome seu próprio carbono e oxigênio”, argumentou.

Benefícios indiscutíveis

A carta resposta divulgada pelos cientistas ressalta que os próprios estudos de Unger mostraram que qualquer potencial efeito de resfriamento promovido pela redução das emissões de compostos orgânicos voláteis resultante do corte de árvores seria superado pelo efeito de aquecimento promovido pelas emissões de carbono causadas pelo desmatamento.

“Esta semana, as negociações das Nações Unidas sobre o clima abordam a importância de dar continuidade aos esforços para frear a degradação das florestas tropicais, que são uma contribuição essencial e barata para a mitigação das mudanças climáticas. A base científica para essa importante peça da solução do problema climático é sólida. Nós discordamos fortemente da mensagem central da professora Unger. Concordamos, no entanto, com a afirmação feita por ela de que as florestas oferecem benefícios indiscutíveis para a biodiversidade”, concluem os cientistas.

O grupo de autores é liderado por Daniel Nepstad, diretor executivo do Earth Innovation Institute, dos Estados Unidos, um dos fundadores do Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia (Ipam) e um dos autores do quinto relatório divulgado pelo IPCC.

Também fazem parte do grupo Reynaldo Victoria, professor da Universidade de São Paulo (USP) e membro da coordenação do Programa FAPESP de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais, e Paulo Artaxo, professor da USP e um dos autores do quinto relatório do IPCC.

“O artigo divulgado por Unger na revista Nature Climate Change tem erros elementares e não leva em conta aspectos fundamentais, como a importância das florestas tropicais na formação de nuvens, que altera a refletividade da superfície e também atua no controle do ciclo hidrológico”, disse Artaxo à Agência FAPESP.

“Esse episódio mostra como a ciência, quando negligencia aspectos importantes, pode ser muito prejudicial do ponto de vista de políticas públicas. Reflorestamento e redução do desmatamento são umas das melhores estratégias de redução dos efeitos do aquecimento global”, afirmou.

Fall in monsoon rains driven by rise in air pollution, study shows (Science Daily)

Date: October 1, 2014

Source: University of Edinburgh

Summary: Emissions produced by human activity have caused annual monsoon rainfall to decline over the past 50 years, a study suggests. In the second half of the 20th century, the levels of rain recorded during the Northern Hemisphere’s summer monsoon fell by as much as 10 per cent, researchers say. Changes to global rainfall patterns can have serious consequences for human health and agriculture.


Emissions produced by human activity have caused annual monsoon rainfall to decline over the past 50 years, a study suggests.

In the second half of the 20th century, the levels of rain recorded during the Northern Hemisphere’s summer monsoon fell by as much as 10 per cent, researchers say. Changes to global rainfall patterns can have serious consequences for human health and agriculture.

Scientists found that emissions of tiny air particles from human-made sources — known as anthropogenic aerosols — were the cause. High levels of aerosols in the atmosphere cause heat from the sun to be reflected back into space, lowering temperatures on Earth’s surface and reducing rainfall.

Levels of aerosol emissions have soared since the 1950s, with the most common sources being power stations and cars.

Researchers at the University of Edinburgh say their work provides clear evidence of human-induced rainfall change. Alterations to summer monsoon rainfall affect the lives of billions of people, mostly those living in India, South East Asia and parts of Africa.

The team calculated the average summer monsoon rainfall in the Northern Hemisphere between 1951 and 2005. They used computer-based climate models to quantify the impact of increasing aerosol emissions and greenhouse gases over the same period. They also took account of natural factors such as volcanic eruptions and climate variability to gauge the impact of human activity on the amount of monsoon rainfall.

Researchers say levels of human-made aerosols are expected to decline during the 21st century as countries begin adopting cleaner methods of power generation.

The study is published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. The work was funded by the Natural Environmental Research Council, European Research Council and National Centre for Atmospheric Science.

Lead author Dr Debbie Polson, of the University of Edinburgh’s School of GeoSciences, said: “This study shows for the first time that the drying of the monsoon over the past 50 years cannot be explained by natural climate variability and that human activity has played a significant role in altering the seasonal monsoon rainfall on which billions of people depend.”

Journal Reference:

  1. D. Polson, M. Bollasina, G. C. Hegerl, L. J. Wilcox. Decreased monsoon precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere due to anthropogenic aerosols.Geophysical Research Letters, 2014; 41 (16): 6023 DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060811

Climate detectives reveal handprint of human caused climate change in Australia (Science Daily)

Date: September 29, 2014

Source: University of New South Wales

Summary: Australia’s hottest year on record in 2013 along with the accompanying droughts, heat waves and record-breaking seasons of that year was virtually impossible without the influence of human-caused global warming, scientists say.

The impacts of man-made climate change were felt in Australia during its hottest year on record in 2013. Credit: UNSW, P3, Helena Brusic.

Australia’s hottest year on record in 2013 along with the accompanying droughts, heat waves and record-breaking seasons of that year was virtually impossible without the influence of human-caused global warming.

New research from ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) researchers and colleagues, over five different Australian papers in a special edition of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), has highlighted the powerful influence of global warming on Australia’s climate.

“We often talk about the fingerprint of human-caused climate change when we look at extreme weather patterns,” said Prof David Karoly, an ARCCSS researcher with the University of Melbourne.

“This research across four different papers goes well beyond that. If we were climate detectives then Australia’s hottest year on record in 2013 wasn’t just a smudged fingerprint at the scene of the crime, it was a clear and unequivocal handprint showing the impact of human caused global warming.”

In 2013, heat records fell like dominoes. Australia had its hottest day on record, its hottest month on record, its hottest summer on record, its hottest spring on record and then rounded it off with the hottest year on record.

According to the research papers presented in BAMS, the impact of climate change significantly increased the chances of record heat events in 2013. Looking back over the observational record the researchers found global warming over Australia (see attached graphic): doubled the chance of the most intense heat waves, tripled the likelihood of heatwave events, made extreme summer temperature across Australia five time more likely increased the chance of hot dry drought-like conditions seven times made hot spring temperatures across Australia 30 times more likely.

But perhaps most importantly, it showed the record hot year of 2013 across Australia was virtually impossible without the influence of human-caused global warming. At its most conservative, the science showed the heat of 2013 was made 2000 times more likely by global warming.

“When it comes to what helped cause our hottest year on record, human-caused climate change is no longer a prime suspect, it is the guilty party,” said ARCCSS Australian National University researcher Dr Sophie Lewis.

“Too often we talk about climate change impacts as if they are far in the future. This research shows they are here, now.”

The extreme year of 2013 is just the latest peak in a trend over the observational record that has seen increasing bushfire days, the record-breaking warming of oceans around Australia, the movement of tropical species into temperate zones and the shifting of rain bearing storm tracks further south and away from some of our most important agricultural zones.

“The most striking aspect of the extreme heat of 2013 and its impacts is that this is only at the very beginning of the time when we are expected to experience the first impacts of human-caused climate change,” said Dr Sarah Perkins an ARCCSS researcher with the University of New South Wales.

“If we continue to put carbon into our atmosphere at the currently accelerating rate, years like 2013 will quickly be considered normal and the impacts of future extremes will be well beyond anything modern society has experienced.”

We’re way more screwed than we were the last time the U.N. had a big climate meeting (Grist)

REALITY CHECK
It’s been nearly five years since President Obama and other heads of state attended a major U.N. climate event. In the time since the 2009 Copenhagen conference, there has been little real progress toward a strong global climate agreement — instead there’s been backsliding. But there’s been lots of progress in making the climate go haywire.

So at the U.N. Climate Summit on Tuesday, when heads of state brag about accomplishments, make grandiose promises, and announce a lot of marginally helpful measures from the private sector and civil society, don’t be fooled. Things are a lot grimmer now than they were even five years ago.

Consider: Carbon dioxide emissions have gone up every year since 2009. CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has gone up too — from an average of 387 parts per million in 2009 to an average of more than 400 ppm for April, May, and June of this year. Last month was the hottest August ever recorded, and 2014 is on track to be the hottest year ever recorded.

A hard-hitting report released on Thursday by Oxfam International — “The Summit that Snoozed?” — highlights more ways we’ve let things get worse.  Here are some of its top points:

Climate change is costing the world more money every year. Since 2009, extreme weather-related disasters have cost more than three times what they did in the whole of the 1970s. Oxfam knows this all too well, since much of what it does is respond to the ensuing humanitarian crises. The group writes, “Devastating storms and floods in Pakistan, the Philippines and elsewhere in the world have cost thousands of lives and billions of dollars as poor countries and aid agencies like Oxfam struggle to cope.”

The U.S. actually suffered the highest number of extreme weather-related disasters in the last five years, and the largest economic losses at $198 billion. But that big price tag is because the U.S. is so rich, not because its disasters were the worst. Typhoon Haiyan took far more lives in the Philippines than Sandy did in the U.S., but Haiyan caused less economic damage. So while the U.S.’s economic damages were 14 times larger in absolute terms, the Philippines lost 1.2 percent of its GDP, while the U.S. lost only 0.2 percent.

Of the more than 112,000 lives Oxfam says were lost to extreme weather events over the past five years, more than half were in Russia, where 56,246 died from the 2010 heat wave. Russian President Vladimir Putin, by the way, is a denier of climate science and will not be attending the U.N. Climate Summit.

(A caveat, which Oxfam neglects to mention, about its economic numbers: While the comparisons across decades are adjusted for inflation, they are not adjusted for economic growth. One reason we suffer bigger economic impacts than we did in the 1970s is because we are richer and we have more valuable property to damage.)

Oxfam doesn’t provide any data on the increasing frequency of extreme weather events or their relationship to climate change. Perhaps the group, understandably, views that as a given. But lest there be any doubt: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2011 that extreme weather would become more common due to climate change. And it’s already happening. A study from August in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that prolonged periods of hot or wet weather during summers in the Northern Hemisphere have doubled in the last decade. A study of 2012 data by 18 international research teams published last September in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyfound that human-caused climate change was partially responsible for half of the major extreme weather events that year.

The richest countries are wasting more money subsidizing fossil fuels.According to Oxfam, “The latest OECD figures of its 34 members show that total subsidies to fossil fuels have increased since Copenhagen — from just over $60 billion in 2009 to just over $80 billion in 2011. … More recent years are not yet available but there is no reason to suggest that the trend has reversed.” Since 80 percent of the world’s remaining fossil fuel reserves need to stay in the ground if we’re to keep below 2 degrees Celsius of warming, policies that encourage fossil exploration or exploitation are extremely counterproductive.

And no, despite the growth of renewable capacity and the decline in the cost of renewables, the market isn’t solving this problem for us. Since 2009, private sector investment in fossil fuels has increased from just over $1 trillion to $1.1 trillion. That’s four times the size of private investment in renewables, which decreased from $300 billion in 2011 to $250 billion in 2012.

Copenhagen’s targets were too weak, and countries have been scaling down their ambition since then. As a U.N. report found in 2010, the voluntary emission-reduction pledges countries made under the Copenhagen Accord were not large enough to keep the world from warming by less than 2 degrees Celsius, which is the target set in Copenhagen. Since then, everyone has stuck to their lowest possible targets or even lowered them further, while some countries have adopted policies that will make it impossible to meet even the targets they have. Oxfam explains:

A number of countries set pledges in the form of a range, in which the higher end would be conditional on action by other countries. Australia and New Zealand’s 5 per cent pledges would move to 25 per cent and 20 per cent respectively if an appropriate global deal were struck, while the EU’s 20 per cent target would climb to 30 per cent if the conditions were right. Of the seven rich countries (or blocs) that promised to increase their target, none have done so. …

Similarly, while there was an agreement in 2011 to extend the Kyoto Protocol, which legally commits developed countries to cut their emissions, major countries have gone backwards instead of forwards. Canada, with a focus on tar sands extraction, announced they were dropping out of the Kyoto Protocol soon afterwards and replaced its Copenhagen pledge with a new set of targets, which allow emissions to rise. Two years later, Japan tore up its Copenhagen pledge to reduce its emissions by a quarter on 1990 levels, again replacing it with a set of targets that sanction a rise instead. In July 2014, Australia repealed its carbon tax, the country’s main tool for reducing emissions at home. As a result, Australia may struggle to meet even its minimum “unconditional” Copenhagen pledge of a 5 per cent cut by 2020.

In fairness to Australia and Canada, their heads of state are ditching the Climate Summit, so it’s not like they’re even pretending they care about climate change.

In light of all this, anyone watching the Climate Summit should retain a healthy skepticism about the promises and potentially misleading progress reports being offered. But the summit is also an opportunity to right some of these wrongs. Leaders making speeches on Tuesday can propose and commit to larger emissions reductions in the lead-up to treaty negotiations in Paris next year. And they can pony up the missing money for the U.N. Green Climate Fund.

Advocates like Oxfam and the 140 organizations cosponsoring the People’s Climate March on Sunday are trying to make clear that they won’t let world leaders off the hook easily.