Arquivo da tag: Mudanças climáticas

National Science Foundation: Record California Drought Directly Linked To Climate Change (Climate Progress)

BY JOE ROMM

POSTED ON SEPTEMBER 29, 2014 AT 2:59 PM

NSF: “The drought crippling California is by some measures the worst in the state’s history.” CREDIT: NOAA

A Stanford study funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) confirms a growing body of research that finds “The atmospheric conditions associated with the unprecedented drought in California are very likely linked to human-caused climate change.”

The NSF news release, headlined, “Cause of California drought linked to climate change,” explains:

Climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh of Stanford University and colleagues used a novel combination of computer simulations and statistical techniques to show that a persistent region of high atmospheric pressure over the Pacific Ocean–one that diverted storms away from California–was much more likely to form in the presence of modern greenhouse gas concentrations.

Unprecedented droughts often combine a reduction in precipitation with higher temperatures that increase evaporation, leaving soil parched. As the NSF notes in this case, “Combined with unusually warm temperatures and stagnant air conditions, the lack of precipitation has triggered a dangerous increase in wildfires and incidents of air pollution across the state.”

We know, of course, that global warming is making heat waves longer and stronger and more frequent, which in turn makes droughts worse everywhere. But climate change is also causing reduced precipitation in many regions, such as the Mediterranean and southwestern United States. This double whammy from carbon pollution means we’ll be seeing more and more dangerous record droughts.

California’s 3-year drought has reached epic proportions. The L.A. Times reported last week, “Drought has 14 communities on the brink of waterlessness.”

Here’s the most recent Drought Monitor for the state:

20140923_CA_trd

So what is the proximate cause of the reduced precipitation over California? New studies suggest that increases in sea surface temperatures are not the cause of the drying. The NSF study, however, explains:

Scientists agree that the immediate cause of the drought is a particularly tenacious “blocking ridge” over the northeastern Pacific — popularly known as the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, or “Triple R” — that prevented winter storms from reaching California during the 2013 and 2014 rainy seasons.

Blocking ridges are regions of high atmospheric pressure that disrupt typical wind patterns in the atmosphere.

The NSF study analyzed “the period since 1948, for which comprehensive atmospheric data are available.” Researchers “found that the persistence and intensity of the Triple R in 2013 were unrivaled by any previous event.” Stanford’s Bala Rajaratnam then “applied advanced statistical techniques to a large suite of climate model simulations.”

Finally, researchers looked at two sets of models — one set that duplicated the current climate, in which carbon pollution is warming the atmosphere, and the other set in which carbon pollution levels were comparable to those just before the Industrial Revolution.

The researchers found that the extreme heights of the Triple R in 2013 were at least three times as likely to occur in the present climate as in the preindustrial climate.

They also found that such extreme values are consistently tied to unusually low precipitation in California, and to the formation of atmospheric ridges over the northeastern Pacific.

Prof. Rajaratnam concluded, “We’ve demonstrated with high statistical confidence that large-scale atmospheric conditions similar to those of the Triple R are far more likely to occur now than in the climate before we emitted large amounts of greenhouse gases.”

This matches the finding in an April study that “there is a traceable anthropogenic warming footprint in the enormous intensity of the anomalous ridge during winter 2013-14, the associated drought and its intensity.” The lead author of that study, Dr. Simon Wang of the Utah Climate Center, told me in an email earlier this year, “I personally think that the debate over global warming leading to stronger blocking has passed. The ongoing challenge is how we predict WHEN and WHERE those blocking will happen and affect WHICH region.”

Indeed, as I’ve reported, scientists a decade ago not only predicted the loss of Arctic ice would dry out California, they also precisely predicted the specific, unprecedented change in the jet stream that has in fact caused the unprecedented nature of the California drought.

In fact, a growing body of evidence — documented by Senior Weather Channel meteorologist Stu Ostro and others — that “global warming is increasing the atmosphere’s thickness, leading to stronger and more persistent ridges of high pressure, which in turn are a key to temperature, rainfall, and snowfall extremes and topsy-turvy weather patterns like we’ve had in recent years.”

Bottom Line: Human activity has made droughts longer and stronger in many places, including California. If we continue on our current path of unrestricted carbon pollution, we will be sharply increasing the chances of civilization-threatening mega-droughts here and abroad.

If trees could talk: Forest research network reveals global change effects (Science Daily)

Date: September 26, 2014

Source: Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute

Summary: Permafrost thaw drives forest loss in Canada, while drought has killed trees in Panama, southern India and Borneo. In the U.S., in Virginia, over-abundant deer eat trees before they reach maturity, while nitrogen pollution has changed soil chemistry in Canada and Panama. More than 100 collaborators have now published a major overview of what 59 forests in 24 countries teach us about forest responses to global change.


In addition to identifying, mapping, measuring and monitoring trees in the CTFS-ForestGEO study plots, researchers describe the relatedness of trees, track flower and seed production, collect insects, survey mammals, quantify carbon stocks and flows within the ecosystem, take soil samples and measure climate variables like rainfall and temperature. The thorough study of these plots provides insights into not only how forests are changing but also why. Credit: Beth King, STRI

Permafrost thaw drives forest loss in Canada, while drought has killed trees in Panama, southern India and Borneo. In the U.S., in Virginia, over-abundant deer eat trees before they reach maturity, while nitrogen pollution has changed soil chemistry in Canada and Panama. Continents apart, these changes have all been documented by the Smithsonian-led Center for Tropical Forest Science-Forest Global Earth Observatory, CTFS-ForestGEO, which released a new report revealing how forests are changing worldwide.

“With 107 collaborators we’ve published a major overview of what 59 forests in 24 countries, where we monitor nearly 6 million trees teach us about forest responses to global change,” said Kristina Anderson-Teixeira, first author of the report and CTFS-ForestGEO and ecosystem ecologist based at the Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute.

Many of the changes occurring in forests worldwide are attributable to human impacts on climate, atmospheric chemistry, land use and animal populations that are so pervasive as to warrant classification of a new geologic period in Earth’s history — the Anthropocene, the Age of Humans.

Measuring and understanding the effects of all these changes — collectively termed “global change” — are easier said than done. Some of the best information about these global-scale changes comes from CTFS-ForestGEO, the only network of standardized forest-monitoring sites that span the globe.

Since the censuses began at the first site on Barro Colorado Island in Panama in 1981, atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased by 16 percent. The forest sites in the network have warmed by an average of over 1 degree F (0.6 degree C) and experienced up to 30 percent changes in precipitation. Landscapes around protected sites experience deforestation.

The plot network now includes forests from Brazil to northern Canada, from Gabon to England and from Papua New Guinea to China.

In addition to identifying, mapping, measuring and monitoring trees, researchers describe the relatedness of trees, track flower and seed production, collect insects, survey mammals, quantify carbon stocks and flows within the ecosystem, take soil samples and measure climate variables like rainfall and temperature. The thorough study of these plots provides insights into not only how forests are changing but also why.

Climate change scenarios predict that most of these sites will face warmer and often drier conditions in the future — some experiencing novel climates with no modern analogs. Forests are changing more rapidly than expected by chance alone, and shifts in species composition have been associated with environmental change. Biomass increased at many tropical sites across the network.

“It is incredibly rewarding to work with a team of forest scientists from 78 research institutions around the world, including four Smithsonian units” Anderson-Teixeira said. “CTFS-ForestGEO is a pioneer in the kind of collaborative effort it takes to understand how forests worldwide are changing.”

“We look forward to using the CTFS-ForestGEO network to continue to understand how and why forests respond to change, and what this means for the climate, biodiversity conservation and human well-being,” said Stuart Davies, network director.

Journal Reference:

  1. Anderson-Teixeira, K.J., Davies, S.J., Bennett, A.C., et al. CTFS-ForestGEO: A worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change.. Global Change Biology, 2014

Diálogos sobre o fim do mundo (El País)

Do Antropoceno à Idade da Terra, de Dilma Rousseff a Marina Silva, o antropólogo Eduardo Viveiros de Castro e a filósofa Déborah Danowski pensam o planeta e o Brasil a partir da degradação da vida causada pela mudança climática 

29 SEP 2014 – 11:18 BRT

Se alguns, entre os milhares que passaram pela calçada da Casa de Rui Barbosa, na semana de 15 a 19 de setembro, por um momento tivessem o ímpeto de entrar, talvez levassem um susto. Ou até se desesperassem. Durante cinco dias, debateu-se ali, no bairro de Botafogo, no Rio de Janeiro, algo que, apesar dos sinais cada vez mais evidentes, ainda parece distante das preocupações da maioria: a progressiva e cada vez mais rápida degradação da vida a partir da mudança climática. Pensadores de diversas áreas e de diferentes regiões do mundo discutiram o conceito de Antropoceno – o momento em que o homem deixa de ser agente biológico para se tornar uma força geológica, capaz de alterar a paisagem do planeta e comprometer sua própria sobrevivência como espécie e a dos outros seres vivos. Ou, dito de outro modo, o ponto de virada em que os humanos deixam de apenas temer a catástrofe para se tornar a catástrofe.

Com o título “Os mil nomes de Gaia – do Antropoceno à Idade da Terra”, o encontro foi concebido pelo francês Bruno Latour, uma das estrelas internacionais desse debate, e dois dos pensadores mais originais do Brasil atual, Eduardo Viveiros de Castro e Déborah Danowski. Na mesma semana, Eduardo e Déborah lançaram o livro que escreveram juntos: Há mundo por vir? – ensaio sobre os medos e os fins (Editora Cultura e Barbárie).

Na obra, abordam as várias teorias, assim como as incursões da literatura e do cinema, sobre esse momento em que a arrogância e o otimismo da modernidade encontram uma barreira. O homem é então lançado no incontrolável e até na desesperança, no território de Gaia, o planeta ao mesmo tempo exíguo e implacável. Como escrevem logo no início do livro, com deliciosa ironia: “O fim do mundo é um tema aparentemente interminável – pelo menos, é claro, até que ele aconteça”.

Déborah é filósofa, professora da pós-graduação da PUC do Rio de Janeiro. Pesquisa a metafísica moderna e, ultimamente, o pensamento ecológico. Eduardo é etnólogo, professor do Museu Nacional da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. É autor do “perspectivismo ameríndio”, contribuição que impactou a antropologia e o colocou entre os maiores antropólogos do mundo. Como disse Latour, Déborah é uma “filósofa meio ecologista”, Eduardo um “antropólogo meio filósofo”.

Eduardo e Déborah são marido e mulher e pais de Irene, a quem o livro é dedicado. Além da casa, os dois compartilham a capacidade bastante rara de dialogar com os vários campos de conhecimento e da cultura sem escapar de refletir também sobre a política – para muito além de partidos e eleições, mas também sobre partidos e eleições. Ambos têm uma ação bastante ativa nas redes sociais. Como diz Eduardo, o Twitter é onde ele pensa.

A entrevista a seguir contém alguns dos momentos mais interessantes de cinco horas de conversa – três horas e meia no apartamento deles, em Botafogo, no sábado após o colóquio, e uma hora e meia por Skype, dias depois. Entre os dois encontros, 400.000 pessoas, segundo os organizadores, participaram da Marcha dos Povos pelo Clima, em Nova York, e 4.000 no Rio de Janeiro; Barack Obama afirmou que “o clima está mudando mais rápido do que as ações para lidar com a questão” e que nenhum país ficará imune; e o Brasil recusou-se a assinar o compromisso de desmatamento zero até 2030.

Ainda que tenham sido dias intensos, é possível afirmar que para muitos parece mais fácil aderir a ameaças de fim de mundo, como a suposta profecia maia, de 21 de dezembro de 2012, do que acreditar que a deterioração da vida que sentem (e como sentem!), objetiva e subjetivamente, no seu cotidiano – e que em São Paulo chega a níveis inéditos com a seca e a ameaça de faltar água para milhões – é resultado da ação do homem sobre o planeta. É mais fácil crer na ficção, que ao final se revela como ficção, salvando a todos, do que enfrentar o abismo da realidade, em que nosso primeiro pé já encontrou o nada.

É sobre isso que se fala nesta entrevista. Mas também sobre pobres e sobre índios, e sobre índios convertidos em pobres; sobre esquerda e sobre direita; sobre capitalismo e sobre o fim do capitalismo; sobre Lula, Dilma Rousseff e Marina Silva. Sobre como nos tornamos “drones”, ao dissociar ação e consequência. E como todos estes são temas da mudança climática – e não estão distantes, mas perto, bem perto de nós. Mais próximos do que a mesa de cabeceira onde desligamos o despertador que nos acorda para uma vida que nos escapa. O problema é que o que nos acorda nem sempre nos desperta. Talvez seja hora de aprender, como fazem diferentes povos indígenas, a dançar para que o céu não caia sobre a nossa cabeça.

A antropóloga sul-africana Lesley Green referiu-se, em sua exposição no colóquio, ao momento de países como África do Sul e Brasil, países em que uma parcela da população que historicamente estava fora do mundo do consumo passa a ter acesso ao mundo do consumo. No Brasil, estamos falando da chamada Classe C ou “nova classe média”. Me parece que esse é quase um dogma no Brasil de hoje, algo que poucos têm a coragem de confrontar. Como dar essa má notícia, a de que agora que podem consumir, de fato não podem, porque as elites exauriram o planeta nos últimos séculos? E como dizer isso no Brasil, em que todo o processo de inclusão passa pelo consumo?

“O capitalismo está fundado no princípio da produção de riqueza, mas a questão num planeta finito é redistribuir a riqueza”

Eduardo Viveiros de Castro – Essa é uma grande questão em países como o Brasil. E totalmente legítima. O que está em jogo aí é a questão da igualdade. Até certo ponto é muito mais fácil você dar um carro para o pobre do que tirar o carro do rico. E talvez fosse muito mais fácil para o pobre aceitar que ele não pode ter um carro se o rico parasse de ter carro também. Dizendo, de fato: “Olha, lamento, você não pode mais usar, mas eu também não”. É claro que enquanto você ficar dizendo para o pobre – “Você não pode ter e eu tenho” – não dá. Ele vai dizer: “Por que vocês podem continuar a consumir seis planetas Terra e eu não posso comprar o meu carrinho?”. É preciso dissociar crescimento de igualdade, como afirma o Rodrigo Nunes (professor do Departamento de Filosofia da PUC-Rio). E sobretudo você tem que parar de superdesenvolver os países superdesenvolvidos. E a palavra tem que ser “superdesenvolvido”. Porque a gente fala muito em sociedades desenvolvidas e subdesenvolvidas, como antigamente – países subdesenvolvidos, países em vias de desenvolvimento, países desenvolvidos. Nunca ninguém falou que existem países superdesenvolvidos, isto é, excessivamente desenvolvidos. É o caso dos Estados Unidos, onde um cidadão americano médio gasta o equivalente a 32 cidadãos do Quênia ou da Etiópia. A relação que sempre se faz é que, para tirar as populações da pobreza, é preciso crescer economicamente. E aí você tem um dilema: se você cresce economicamente, com uso crescente de energia fortemente poluente, como petróleo e carvão, nós vamos destruir o planeta. Assim, a luta pela igualdade não pode depender do nosso modelo de crescimento econômico mundial, do qual o Brasil, Índia e China são só as pontas mais histéricas, porque querem crescer muito rápido. O jeito como o mundo está andando não pode continuar porque se baseia numa ideia de que o crescimento pode ser infinito, quando a gente sabe que mora num mundo finito, com recursos finitos. Entretanto, eu nunca vi ninguém falar: “O crescimento vai ter que parar aqui”. Você vai ser preso se você disser isso em qualquer lugar do mundo. Eu não acho que o Brasil tenha que parar de crescer, no sentido de crescimento zero. O que o Brasil precisa, como o mundo precisa, é de uma redistribuição radical da riqueza. Quanto mais você redistribui, menos precisa crescer, no sentido de aumentar a produção. A economia capitalista está fundada no princípio de que viver economicamente é produzir riqueza, quando a questão realmente crítica é redistribuir a riqueza existente.

Mas aí você toca na parte mais difícil, os privilégios… E a mudança parece ainda mais distante, quase impossível.

Eduardo – É verdade. Os grandes produtores de petróleo têm todo interesse em tirar até a última gota de petróleo do chão, mas eles também não são completamente imbecis. E estão se preparando para monopolizar outras riquezas no futuro que possam vir a ser a mercadoria realmente importante. Por exemplo, água. Eu não tenho a menor dúvida de que existem planos estratégicos das grandes companhias petrolíferas para a passagem de produtoras de petróleo a produtoras de água, que será a mercadoria escassa. Você pode viver sem petróleo, você pode viver sem luz, inclusive, mas você não pode sobreviver sem água. A minha impressão é que, assim que passar a eleição, São Paulo vai entrar numa vida de science fiction. O que é uma megalópole sem água?

Acho que saberemos em breve…

“São Paulo é uma espécie de laboratório do mundo. Tudo está acontecendo de maneira acelerada”

Eduardo – É mais fácil você dizer que a culpa é do (Geraldo) Alckmin (governador de São Paulo, pelo PSDB), que não tomou as medidas necessárias. É mais fácil do que dizer: isso aí é o efeito de São Paulo ter cimentado todo o seu território, se transformado num captor térmico gigantesco, só com cimento, asfalto e carro jogando gás carbônico. Desapareceu a garoa, não existe mais a garoa em São Paulo. A Amazônia foi e está sendo desmatada por empresários paulistas. São Paulo é uma metáfora, mas não é só uma metáfora. São Paulo está destruindo a Amazônia e está sofrendo as consequências disso. Acho que São Paulo é um laboratório espetacular, no sentido não positivo da palavra. É como se estivesse passando em fast forward, acelerado, tudo o que está acontecendo no mundo. Explodiu a quantidade de carros, explodiu a poluição, explodiu a falta de água, explodiu a violência, explodiu a desigualdade. Em suma, São Paulo é uma espécie de laboratório do mundo, neste sentido. Não só São Paulo, há outras cidades iguais, mas São Paulo é a mais próxima de nós, e estamos vendo o que está acontecendo.

E por que as pessoas não conseguem fazer a conexão, por exemplo, entre a seca em São Paulo e o desmatamento na Amazônia?

Eduardo – Porque é muito grande a coisa. Há um pensador alemão, o Günther Anders, que foi o primeiro marido da Hannah Arendt. Ele fugiu do nazismo e virou um militante antinuclear, especialmente entre o fim da década de 40 e os anos 70. Ele diz que a arma nuclear é uma prova de que aconteceu alguma coisa com a humanidade, na medida em que ela se tornou incapaz de imaginar o que é capaz de fazer. É uma situação antiutópica. O que é um utopista? Um utopista é uma pessoa que consegue imaginar um mundo melhor, mas não consegue fazer, não conhece os meios nem sabe como. E nós estamos virando o contrário. Nós somos capazes tecnicamente de fazer coisas que não somos nem capazes de imaginar. A gente sabe fazer a bomba atômica, mas não sabe pensar a bomba atômica. O Günther Anders usa uma imagem interessante, a de que existe essa ideia em biologia da percepção de fenômenos subliminares, abaixo da linha de percepção. Tem aquela coisa que é tão baixinha, que você ouve mas não sabe que ouviu; você vê, mas não sabe que viu; como pequenas distinções de cores. São fenômenos literalmente subliminares, abaixo do limite da sua percepção. Nós, segundo ele, estamos criando uma outra coisa agora que não existia, o supraliminar. Ou seja, é tão grande, que você não consegue ver nem imaginar. A crise climática é uma dessas coisas. Como é que você vai imaginar um troço que depende de milhares de parâmetros, que é um transatlântico que está andando e tem uma massa inercial gigantesca? As pessoas ficam paralisadas. Dá uma espécie de paralisia cognitiva. Então as pessoas falam: “Não posso pensar nisso. Se eu pensar nisso, como é que eu vou dar conta? Você está dizendo que o mundo vai aquecer quatro graus… E o que vai acontecer? Então é melhor não pensar”. Bem, a gente acha que tem que pensar.

Déborah Danowski – Os indígenas, os pequenos agricultores, eles estão percebendo no contato com as plantas, com os animais, que algo está acontecendo. Eles têm uma percepção muito mais apurada do que a gente.

Eduardo – Como eles veem que o clima está mudando? No calendário agrícola de uma tribo indígena você sabe que está na hora de plantar porque há vários sinais da natureza. Por exemplo, o rio chegou até tal nível, o passarinho tal começou a cantar, a árvore tal começou a dar flor. E a formiga tal começou a fazer não-sei-o-quê. O que eles estão dizendo agora é que esses sinais dessincronizaram. O rio está chegando a um nível antes de o passarinho começar a cantar. E o passarinho está cantando muito antes de aquela árvore dar flor. É como se a natureza tivesse saído de eixo. E isso todos eles estão dizendo. As espécies estão se extinguindo, e a humanidade parece que continua andando para um abismo. O mundo vai, de fato, piorar para muita gente, para todo mundo. Só o que vai melhorar é a taxa de lucro de algumas empresas, e mesmo os acionistas delas vão ter que talvez tirar a casa de luxo que eles têm na Califórnia e jogar para outro lugar, porque ali vai ter pegado fogo. Se houver uma epidemia, um vírus, uma pandemia letal, violenta, tipo ebola, pode pegar todo mundo. Enquanto os sujeitos têm corpo de carne e osso, ninguém está realmente livre, por mais rico que seja, do que vai acontecer. Mas é evidente que quem vai primeiro soçobrar serão os pobres, os danados da Terra, os condenados da Terra. Algumas pessoas estão começando a se preocupar, mas não conseguem fazer parar, porque todas as outras estão empurrando. E você diz: “para, para, para!”. E você não consegue. Mas há muitas iniciativas pelo mundo de gente que percebeu que os estados nacionais, ou que as grandes tecnologias gigantescas, heroicas e épicas, não vão nos salvar. E que está nas nossas mãos nos salvarmos. Não está nas mãos dos nossos responsáveis. Não temos responsáveis. A ideia de que o governo é responsável por nós, a gente já viu que não é. Ele é irresponsável. Ele toma decisões irresponsáveis, destrói riquezas que ele não pode substituir, e, portanto, há um descrédito fortíssimo nas formas de representação.

Como os protestos de junho de 2013…

Eduardo – As crises de junho são crises de “não nos representa”. Isso não é só no Brasil. É como se tivesse havido uma espécie de fissura. É uma outra geração. Não deixa de ser parecido com 68, de certa maneira. Só que agora não é em torno de novas lutas, como gênero, sexualidade, etnia. Tudo isso continua, mas há uma outra coisa muito maior por cima: o que estamos fazendo com a Terra onde a gente vive? Vamos continuar comendo transgênico? Vamos continuar nos envenenando? Vamos continuar destruindo o planeta? Vamos continuar mudando a temperatura?

Pegando como gancho a nossa situação aqui no Brasil, com um governo desenvolvimentista, com grandes obras na Amazônia, transposição do rio São Francisco etc, gostaria que vocês falassem sobre a questão do pobre. Você afirma, de uma maneira muito original, Eduardo, que o pobre é um “nós” de segunda classe. A grande promessa seria tirá-lo da pobreza para ficar mais parecido com a única forma desejável de ser, a nossa. E o índio problematiza isso e, portanto, se torna um problema. O índio não se interessa em ser “nós”. Então eu queria que vocês explicassem melhor essa ideia e a situassem na política do atual governo para os pobres e para os índios.

“A história do Brasil é um processo de conversão do índio em pobre. É o que está acontecendo na Amazônia agora”

Eduardo – O capitalismo é uma máquina de fazer pobres. Inclusive na Europa. Os pobres não estão aqui, só. O pobre é parte integrante do sistema de crescimento. As pessoas acham que o crescimento diminui a pobreza. O crescimento, na verdade, produz e reproduz a pobreza. Na medida em que ele tira gente da pobreza, ele tem que criar outros pobres no lugar. O capitalismo conseguiu melhorar a condição de vida do operariado europeu porque jogou para o Terceiro Mundo as condições miseráveis. Então, era o operário daqui sendo explorado para que os pobres operários de lá fossem menos explorados. Essa oposição que eu fiz entre índio e pobre é, na verdade, uma crítica direta, explícita, a uma boa parte da esquerda, a esquerda tradicional, a velha esquerda que está no poder, que divide o poder por concessão da direita, dos militares e tal, e é muito voltada para a ideia de desenvolvimento. Uma coisa era o desenvolvimentismo do Celso Furtado, naquela época. Acho, inclusive, um insulto à memória dele. O Celso Furtado estava vivendo uma outra época, um outro mundo, um outro modelo. E as pessoas hoje continuam a falar essas palavras de ordem que têm 40, 50, 60 anos, como se fosse a mesma coisa. Mas, qual é o problema? O problema é que a esquerda de classe média, o intelectual de esquerda, vê o seu Outro essencialmente como um pobre. Pobre é uma categoria negativa, né? Pobre é alguém que se define pelo que não tem. Não tem dinheiro, não tem educação, não tem oportunidade. Então, a atitude natural em relação ao pobre, e isso não é uma crítica, é o ver natural, é que o pobre tem que deixar de ser aquilo. Para ele poder ser alguma coisa, ele tem que deixar de ser pobre. Então a atitude natural é você libertar o pobre, emancipar o pobre das suas condições. Tirá-lo do trabalho escravo, dar a ele educação, moradia digna. Mas, invariavelmente, esse movimento tem você mesmo como padrão. Você não se modifica, você modifica o pobre. Você traz o pobre para a sua altura, o que já sugere que você está por cima do pobre. Ao mesmo tempo, você torna o pobre homogêneo. Sim, porque se o pobre é definido por alguém que não tem algo, então é todo mundo igual.

E o que é um índio?

Eduardo – O índio, ao contrário, é uma palavra que acho que só existe no plural. Índio, para mim, é índios. É justamente o contrário do pobre. Eles se definem pelo que têm de diferente, uns dos outros e eles todos de nós, e por alguém cuja razão de ser é continuar sendo o que é. Mesmo que adotando coisas da gente, mesmo que querendo também a sua motocicleta, o seu rádio, o seu Ipad, seja o que for, ele quer isso sem que lhe tirem o que ele já tem e sempre teve. E alguns não querem isso, não estão interessados. Não é todo mundo que quer ser igual ao branco. O que aconteceu com a história do Brasil é que foi um processo circular de transformação de índio em pobre. Tira a terra, tira a língua, tira a religião. Aí o cara fica com o quê? Com a força de trabalho. Virou pobre. Qual foi sempre o truque da mestiçagem brasileira? Tiravam tudo, convertiam e diziam: agora, se vocês se comportarem bem, daqui a 200, 300, 400 anos, vocês vão virar brancos. Eles deixam de ser índios, mas não conseguem chegar a ser brancos. Pessoal, vocês precisam misturar para virar branco. Se vocês se esforçarem, melhorarem a raça, melhorarem o sangue, vai virar branco. O que chamam de mestiçagem é uma fraude. O nome é branqueamento. E é o que estão fazendo na Amazônia. É re-colonização. O Brasil está sendo recolonizado por ele mesmo com esse modelo sulista/europeu/americano. Essa cultura country que está invadindo a Amazônia junto com a soja, junto com o boi. E ao mesmo tempo transformando quem mora ali em pobre. E produzindo a pobreza. O ribeirinho vira pobre, o quilombola vira pobre, o índio vai virando pobre. Atrás da colheitadeira, atrás do boi, vem o programa de governo, vem o Bolsa Família, vem tudo para ir reciclando esse lixo humano que vai sendo pisoteado pela boiada. Reciclando ele em “pobre bom cidadão”. E aí a Amazônica fica liberada…

Como enfrentar isso?

“Qual foi a grande carta de alforria que o governo Dilma deu ao pobre? O cartão de crédito”

Eduardo – Se você olhar a composição étnica, cultural, da pobreza brasileira, você vai ver quem é o pobre. Basicamente índios, negros. O que eu chamo de índios inclui africanos. Inclui os imigrantes que não deram certo. Esse pessoal é essa mistura: é índio, é negro, é imigrante pobre, é brasileiro livre, é o caboclo, é o mestiço, é o filho da empregada com o patrão, filho da escrava com o patrão. O inconsciente cultural destes pobres brasileiros é índio, em larga medida. Tem um componente não branco. É aquela frase que eu inventei: no Brasil todo mundo é índio, exceto quem não é. Então, em vez de fazer o pobre ficar mais parecido com você, você tem que ajudar o pobre a ficar mais parecido com ele mesmo. O que é o pobre positivado? Não mais transformado em algo parecido comigo, mas transformado em algo que ele sempre foi, mas que impedem ele de ser ao torná-lo pobre. O quê? Índio. Temos de ajudá-los a lutar para que eles mesmos definam seu próprio rumo, em vez de nos colocarmos na posição governamental de: “Olha, eu vou tirar vocês da pobreza”. E fazendo o quê? Dando para eles consumo, consumo, consumo.

Déborah – Fora a dívida, né.

Eduardo – Endividando, no cartão de crédito. Qual foi a grande carta de alforria que o governo Dilma deu ao pobre? O cartão de crédito. Hoje pobre tem cartão de crédito. Legal? Muito legal, sobretudo para as firmas que vendem as mercadorias que os pobres compram no cartão de crédito. Porque a Brastemp está adorando o cartão de crédito para pobre. As Casas Bahia estão nas nuvens. Porque o pobre agora pode se endividar.

E aí vêm os elogios à honestidade do pobre…

Eduardo – Eles, sim, pagam as dívidas, porque rico não paga. Eike Batista não paga dívida, mas a empregada morre de trabalhar para pagar o cartão de crédito. Eu provocava a esquerda, dizendo: “O que vocês não estão entendendo é o seguinte. Enquanto vocês tratarem o Outro como pobre, e portanto como alguém que tem que ser melhorado, educado, civilizado – porque no fundo é isso, civilizar o pobre! –, vocês vão estar sendo cúmplices de todo esse sistema de destruição do planeta que permitiu aos ricos serem ricos”.

Vocês afirmam que os índios são especialistas em fim do mundo. E que vamos precisar aprender com eles. No livro, há até uma analogia com o filme de Lars Von Trier, no qual um planeta chamado Melancolia atinge a Terra. Vocês dizem que, em 1492, o Velho Mundo atingiu o Novo Mundo, como um planeta que vocês chamam ironicamente de Mercadoria. O que os índios podem nos ensinar sobre sobreviver ao fim do mundo?

Eduardo – Eles podem nos ensinar a viver num mundo que foi invadido, saqueado, devastado pelos homens. Isto é, ironicamente, num mundo destruído por nós mesmos, cidadãos do mundo globalizado, padronizado, saturado de objetos inúteis, alimentado à custa de pesticidas e agrotóxicos e da miséria alheia. Nós, cidadãos obesos de tanto consumir lixo e sufocados de tanto produzir lixo. A gente invadiu a nós mesmos como se tivéssemos nos travestidos de alienígenas que trataram todo o planeta como nós, europeus, tratamos o Novo Mundo a partir de 1492. Digo “nós”, porque eu acho que a classe média brasileira, os brancos, no sentido social da palavra, não são europeus para os europeus, mas são europeus para dentro do Brasil. Nós, então, nos vemos como alienígenas em relação ao mundo. Como se a gente tivesse uma relação com o mundo diferente da relação dos outros seres vivos, como se os humanos fossem especiais. Não deixa de ser uma coisa importante na tradição do catolicismo e do cristianismo. O homem tem um lado que não é mundano, um destino fora do mundo. Isso faz com que ele trate o mundo como se fosse feito para ser pilhado, saqueado, apropriado. E a gente acaba tratando a nós mesmos como nós tratamos os povos que habitavam aqui no Novo Mundo. Ou seja, como gente a explorar, a escravizar, a catequizar e a reduzir. Esta é a primeira coisa que eu acho que os índios podem nos ensinar: a viver num mundo que foi de alguma maneira roubado por nós mesmos de nós.

E a segunda?

“Os índios são especialistas em fim do mundo, eles podem nos ensinar a viver melhor num mundo pior”

Eduardo – Acho que os índios podem nos ensinar a repensar a relação com o mundo material, uma relação que seja menos fortemente mediada por um sistema econômico baseado na obsolescência planejada e, portanto, na acumulação de lixo como principal produto. Eles podem nos ensinar a voltar à Terra como lugar do qual depende toda a autonomia política, econômica e existencial. Em outras palavras: os índios podem nos ensinar a viver melhor em um mundo pior. Porque o mundo vai piorar. E os índios podem nos ensinar a viver com pouco, a viver portátil, e a ser tecnologicamente polivalente e flexível, em vez de depender de megamáquinas de produção de energia e de consumo de energia como nós. Quando eu falo índio é índio aqui, na Austrália, o pessoal da Nova Guiné, esquimó… Para mim, índio são todas as grandes minorias que estão fora, de alguma maneira, dessa megamáquina do capitalismo, do consumo, da produção, do trabalho 24 horas por dia, sete dias por semana. Esses índios planetários nos ensinam a dispensar a existência das gigantescas máquinas de transcendência que são o Estado, de um lado, e o sistema do espetáculo do outro, o mercado transformado em imagem. Eu acho que os índios podem também nos ensinar a aceitar os imponderáveis, os imprevistos e os desastres da vida com o “pessimismo alegre” (expressão usada originalmente pelo filósofo francês François Zourabichvili, com relação a Deleuze, mas que aqui ganha outros sentidos). O pessimismo alegre caracteriza a atitude vital dos índios e demais povos que vivem à margem da civilização bipolar que é a nossa, que está sempre oscilando entre um otimismo maníaco e um desespero melancólico. Os índios aceitam que nós somos mortais e que do mundo nada se leva. Em muitos povos indígenas do Brasil, e em outras partes do mundo, os bens do defunto são inclusive queimados, são destruídos no funeral. A pessoa morre e tudo o que ela tem é destruído para que a memória dela não cause dor aos sobreviventes. Acho que essas são as coisas que os índios poderiam nos ensinar, mas que eu resumiria nesta frase: os índios podem nos ensinar a viver melhor num mundo pior.

Como é um “pessimismo alegre”?

Eduardo – Acho que o pessimismo alegre é o que você encontra na favela carioca. É o que você encontra no meio das populações que vivem no semiárido brasileiro. É a mesma coisa que você encontra, em geral, nas camadas mais pobres da população. O fato de que você vive em condições que qualquer um de nós, da classe média para cima, consideraria materialmente intoleráveis. Mas isso não os torna seres desesperados, tristes, melancólicos, etc. Muito pelo contrário. É claro que eu não estou falando de situações dramáticas, de gente morrendo de fome. Isso aí não há ninguém que aguente. Mas, se você perguntar para o índio, ele vai dizer: estamos todos fritos, um dia o mundo vai acabar caindo na nossa cabeça, mas isso não impede que você se distraia, que se divirta, que ria um pouco dessa condição meio patética que é a de todo ser humano, em que ele vive como se fosse imortal e ao mesmo tempo sabe que vai morrer. Os índios não acham que o futuro vai ser melhor do que o presente, como nós, e portanto não se desesperam porque o futuro não vai ser melhor do que o presente, como a gente está descobrindo. Eles acham que o futuro vai ser ou igual ou pior do que agora, mas isso não impede que eles considerem isso com pessimismo alegre, que é o contrário do otimismo desencantado, que é um pouco o nosso. Do tipo estamos mal, mas vai dar tudo certo, a tecnologia vai nos salvar, ou o homem vai finalmente chegar ao socialismo. Os índios acham que tudo vai para as cucuias, mesmo. Mas isso não lhes tira o sono, porque viver é uma coisa que você tem que fazer de minuto a minuto, tem que viver o presente. E nós temos um problema, que é a dificuldade imensa em viver o presente. Os índios são pessoas que de fato vivem no presente no melhor sentido possível. Vamos tratar de viver o presente tal como ele é, enfrentando as dificuldades que ele apresenta, mas sem imaginar que a gente tem poderes messiânicos, demiúrgicos de salvar o planeta. Essa é um pouco a minha sensação. O pessimismo alegre é uma atitude que eu sinto como característica de quem tem que viver, e não simplesmente gente que acha que é a palmatória do mundo, que tem que pensar pelo mundo todo.

“Como é que a Dilma Rousseff pode dar Bolsa Família e ao mesmo tempo tornar a vida da Kátia Abreu cada vez mais fácil? Porque o dinheiro não sai do bolso dos ricos, mas da natureza”

Déborah – Acho que sobretudo depende da criação de relações com as outras pessoas. Em vez de você confiar na acumulação, que nos torna sempre tristes, porque está sempre faltando alguma coisa, precisamos sempre obter mais, acumular mais, etc, nós criamos relações com as pessoas que estão à nossa volta, com os outros seres, no meio dos quais nós vivemos.

Parece que há uma cegueira de parte do que se denomina esquerda, hoje, para compreender outras formas de estar no mundo, assim como para compreender desafios como os impostos pela mudança climática, como vemos no Brasil, mas não só no Brasil. Aqui, estamos num momento bem sensível do país, com Belo Monte e as grandes barragens previstas para o Tapajós. Supostamente, teríamos hoje duas candidatas de esquerda (Dilma Rousseff e Marina Silva) nos primeiros lugares da disputa eleitoral para a presidência, mas as questões socioambientais pouco são tocadas. Qual é a dificuldade?

Eduardo – Você tem pelo menos duas esquerdas, como se vê até pelas candidaturas. Só que, infelizmente, uma esquerda muito bem caracterizada, que é a da Dilma, e outra esquerda, representada pela Marina, em que falta capacidade para formular com clareza o que diferencia ela da outra. Essas duas esquerdas, de certa maneira, sempre existiram. Lá no início, na Primeira Internacional, essa fratura correspondeu à distinção entre os anarquistas e os comunistas. Mas hoje eu diria que você tem duas posições dentro da esquerda. Uma posição que a gente poderia chamar de “crescimentista”, centralista, que acha que a solução é tomar o controle do aparelho do Estado para implementar uma política de despauperização do povo brasileiro, dentro da qual a questão do meio ambiente não tem nenhuma importância. A Dilma chegou a cometer aquele famoso ato falho lá em Copenhagen (em 12/2009, quando era ministra-chefe da Casa Civil do governo Lula), ao dizer: “O meio ambiente é, sem dúvida nenhuma, uma ameaça ao desenvolvimento sustentável”. Ato falho. Não era isso o que ela queria dizer, mas disse. Essa esquerda tem zero de sensibilidade ambiental. Ela poderia perceber que uma outra maneira de falar “ambiente” é falar “condições materiais de existência”. Falta de esgoto na favela é problema ambiental do mesmo jeito que desmatamento na Amazônia é problema ambiental. Não é de outro jeito, é do mesmo jeito. Mas, para essa esquerda, ar, água, planta, bicho não faz parte do mundo. São pessoas completamente antropocêntricas, que veem o mundo à disposição dos homens, para ser dominado, controlado e escravizado. Essa esquerda, que é a esquerda da Dilma, é uma esquerda velha, no sentido de que é uma esquerda que, na verdade, pensa como se 1968 não tivesse acontecido. É alguém com uma espécie de nostalgia da União Soviética…

Déborah – Com nostalgia do que nunca aconteceu.

Eduardo – Soviet mais eletricidade, a famosa fórmula do Lenin. O que é o comunismo? O comunismo são os soviets, que são os conselhos operários, mais eletricidade, isto é, mais tecnologia. Aí eu brincava, quando a Dilma tomou o poder: “A Dilma é isso, só que sem o soviet”. É só eletricidade… Ou seja, capitalismo. O que distinguia o socialismo comunista do Lenin era a tecnologia moderna mais a organização social comunista. Se você tira a organização comunista só sobra o capitalismo. Então essa esquerda é uma esquerda sócia do capitalismo. Acha que é preciso levar o capitalismo até o fim, para que ele se complete, para que a industrialização se complete, para que a transformação de todos os índios do mundo em pobres se complete. Para que você então transforme o pobre em proletário, o proletário em classe revolucionária, ou seja, é uma historinha de fadas. Como se pudesse separar a parte boa da parte ruim do capitalismo. Como se fosse possível: isso aqui eu quero, isso aqui eu não quero. Outra coisa, essa esquerda fez um pacto satânico com a direita, que é o seguinte: a gente gosta dos pobres, quer melhorar a vida deles, quer melhorar o nível de renda deles, mas não vai tocar no bolso de vocês, fiquem tranquilos. É o que está dito na Carta ao Povo Brasileiro (documento escrito por Lula na campanha eleitoral de 2002). Pode deixar, que a gente não vai fazer a revolução, não vai ser Robin Hood, ao contrário. E foi exatamente isso o que aconteceu. Ou seja, os bancos nunca lucraram tanto. O Brasil optou por se transformar num exportador de commodities e virar uma verdadeira plantation, como ele era desde o começo. Era exportador de matéria-prima para o centro do império, agora para a China. Mas o pacto foi esse: a gente governa se, primeiro, não prender os militares, não acertar as contas com a ditadura; e, segundo, não mexer no bolso dos ricos, não tocar na estrutura do capital. Veja o tamanho das algemas que a esquerda se pôs. De onde é que vai vir, então, a grana para melhorar a vida dos pobres? Só tem um lugar. Da natureza. Então você superexplora, você queima os móveis da casa. Aumentou o dinheiro disponível para dar umas migalhas para os pobres, o bolo cresceu. Não é por acaso que o Delfim Netto (ministro da Fazenda no período do chamado “Milagre Econômico Brasileiro”, na ditadura civil-militar) é um grande conselheiro do Lula. Primeiro é preciso crescer para depois distribuir. Está crescendo, está dando renda para os pobres, mas esse dinheiro não está saindo do bolso dos ricos. Está saindo da natureza, da floresta destruída. É da água que a gente está exportando para a China sob a forma de boi, de carne e de soja. Estamos comendo o principal para não tocar no bolso dos ricos. E assim a Dilma sai passeando com a Kátia Abreu (senadora pelo PMDB, representante do agronegócio e a principal líder da bancada ruralista do Congresso) e dá Bolsa Família. Como é que a Dilma consegue ao mesmo tempo dar Bolsa Família e tornar a vida da Kátia Abreu cada vez mais fácil? O dinheiro tem que sair de algum lugar. Não está saindo de empréstimo internacional, mas está saindo de empréstimo natural. Esse empréstimo não dá para pagar. Quando a natureza vier cobrar, estaremos fritos. E a natureza está cobrando de que forma? Seca, tufão, furacão, enchente… E no Brasil ainda não chegou a barra pesada. Outro problema desta esquerda é que ela não tem nenhuma noção de mundo, de planeta. Ela pensa o Brasil. Ela é nacionalista em todos os sentidos. Vê curto. Ela vê o Brasil no mundo quando se trata do mercado. Agora, quando se trata do planeta, enquanto casa das espécies, lugar onde nós moramos, ela não está nem aí. O fato de que o Ártico está derretendo não é um problema para o Brasil. Pré-Sal ser um problema para o planeta? Não queremos saber. É uma esquerda xenófoba, neste sentido. Ela não percebe que o Brasil é grande, mas o mundo é pequeno. A Dilma, para mim, é um fóssil. Tem pensamento fossilizado. Ela não está nem no século 20, ela está no século 19.

E a esquerda que a Marina representaria?

“A Marina Silva representaria uma esquerda pós-68, mais democrática e menos vertical, mas ela perdeu o rumo”

Eduardo – Essa é uma esquerda pós-68, que incorporou aquilo que apareceu em 1968, de que dentro da luta de classes há muitas outras lutas. Há a luta das mulheres, a luta dos índios, a luta dos homossexuais… Enfim, todas essas outras formas de pensar as diferenças sociais que não se reduz à questão dos ricos e dos pobres. A pobreza não é uma categoria econômica, mas uma categoria existencial que envolve justiça. E a justiça não é só dar dinheiro para o pobre, mas reconhecer todas essas diferenças que são ignoradas e que explodiram em 1968. A política mudou porque, primeiro, em 68 o socialismo começou a se desacreditar. Não esqueçamos que o Partido Comunista Francês foi contra 1968. Apoiou a repressão policial exatamente como a esquerda oficial apoiou baixar a porrada nos manifestantes de junho de 2013. Ela apoiou a repressão policial à revolta de 68, que não foi francesa, foi mundial. Em 1968 foi a Marcha dos 100.000 aqui, foi a revolta contra a guerra do Vietnã nos Estados Unidos, foi a revolta propriamente dita na França, na Itália e em outros países. Ou seja, foi uma revolução mundial. E nós estamos vivendo, de lá até hoje, a contrarrevolução mundial. A direita retomou o poder e falou: “Temos que impedir que isso aconteça de novo”.

E como a Marina representaria essa esquerda pós-68?

Eduardo – É uma esquerda em que o pobre urbano operário não é mais o personagem típico. Mas é quem? É o índio, o seringueiro, é a mulher, é o negro. A Marina acumula várias identidades…

Déborah – Como você escreveu, Eliane, no seu artigo sobre as diferenças entre os Silvas

Eduardo – Isso. O Lula é o representante do sonho brasileiro de ser como o norte do planeta, os Estados Unidos. Como diz o (antropólogo) Beto Ricardo (um dos fundadores do Instituto Socioambiental), o Brasil é como se fosse dividido entre uma grande São Bernardo e uma grande Barretos. Quer dizer, a zona rural vai ser como Barretos (cidade do interior paulista onde se faz a maior festa country do país): gado, rodeio, bota, chapéu e 4X4. E a parte urbana vai ser uma grande São Bernardo (cidade do chamado ABC Paulista, onde Lula se tornou líder sindical metalúrgico nas grandes greves da virada dos anos 70 para os 80): fábricas, metalurgia, motores, carros. A Marina representaria o outro lado. Essa outra esquerda, muito mais democrática, que aposta menos na organização vertical, autoritária, centralista, clássica dos partidos de esquerda comunista. Embora o PT não seja um partido comunista, nem de longe, é um partido que incorporou vários ex-comunistas, várias pessoas que têm a concepção de que é preciso tomar o Estado, o poder central, para instalar o socialismo, digamos.

E a Marina consegue representar essa outra esquerda?

“O centro do Brasil não é São Paulo, mas a Amazônia”

Eduardo – A Marina está numa posição equívoca, porque ela representa um tipo de pensamento que deveria estar nas ruas, e não no Estado. Deveria estar mobilizando a população, a chamada sociedade civil, e não disputando a presidência num sistema político corrupto, que é praticamente impossível de mexer. Acho que estamos num sistema político com um nó cego e só sairíamos disso aí, literalmente, com uma insurreição popular que forçasse o poder a se auto-reformar. Nestas condições, o governo da Marina é um governo impossível, sob certo ponto de vista. Na minha opinião, depois que ela saiu daquela primeira eleição em 2010 com 20 milhões de votos, tinha que ter saído da lógica da política partidária e se transformado numa líder de movimento social. Uma pessoa capaz de exprimir todo esse jogo de diferenças que tem no Brasil. Ela era líder seringueira, do povo da floresta. Estava lutando pelo ambiente. Essas questões foram sumindo e, quando houve a tentativa de pendurar na campanha dela essas outras lutas para as quais ela pessoalmente não estava preparada – aborto, direitos da mulher, direitos dos LGBT (Lésbicas, Gays, Bissexuais, Transexuais, Travestis e Transgêneros) –, aí ela ficou travada por toda a outra composição dela, que é com o eleitorado evangélico. Então ela também tem o seu problema por ali. Mas o problema principal não é esse. Eu acho que a Marina representa a outra esquerda, a esquerda horizontalista, localista, ambientalista, que entende que é de baixo para cima que as coisas se organizam, mas ela está envolvida num processo eleitoral que é todo o contrário disso. Eleição é um momento de lazer, no sentido de que a população pensa que tem poder, porque pode escolher seus governantes, e depois da eleição volta à posição passiva. Se você tenta sair da posição passiva fora do período eleitoral, a polícia vem e bate em você. Você só pode se manifestar durante as eleições, o povo só pode ser político durante as eleições. Hoje só há dois tipos de cidadão no Brasil: o eleitor e o vândalo. O eleitor só tem uma vez a cada dois, quatro anos, e o resto do tempo você tem que ser vândalo. Ou ficar quietinho em casa, pegando propaganda, sonhando com seu carro e juntando dinheiro para ir para Miami. Acho que a Marina perdeu o rumo. Tenho uma admiração imensa por ela, pessoal, coisa que eu não tenho por nenhum outro. Tenho uma admiração pelo Lula, em outro sentido. Esse cara é incrível, tem um carisma político, mas não o conheço pessoalmente. A Marina, que eu conheço pessoalmente, é uma pessoa fantástica. Inteligentíssima. E é uma pessoa de enorme elegância, no amplo sentido da palavra. Mas ela tem que agradar todo mundo, o que é impossível. Se ela for presidente, espero que ela tenha contado a mentira certa. Isto é, que ela engane, que ela traia, quem merece ser traído. E não, como fez a Dilma, trair quem não merecia ser traído. A Marina não aproveitou a oportunidade para se colocar como uma candidata realmente alternativa. Eu não entendi ainda o que ela está dizendo que seja diferente da Dilma. Não entendi.

Déborah, em sua exposição no colóquio, você falou sobre a esquerda e a direita, a partir de (Gilles) Deleuze (filósofo francês), de uma forma muito interessante….

Déborah – Na verdade, isso é uma definição dele num vídeo que se chama Abecedário. Ele tem outras definições de esquerda, como, por exemplo, que o papel da esquerda é pensar; e que a esquerda coloca questões que a direita quer a todo custo esconder. Essa da percepção é uma que gosto especialmente porque me ajuda a reconhecer posições de direita ou de esquerda. Ser de esquerda é até mais uma questão de percepção do que de conceito. O ser de direita é sempre perceber as coisas a partir de si mesmo, como num endereço postal. Assim: eu, aqui, neste lugar, na minha casa, na rua tal, na praia de Botafogo, Flamengo, Rio de Janeiro, América do Sul. E você pensa o mundo, ali, como uma extensão de si mesmo. E cada vez que você se afasta, vai perdendo interesse, a coisa vai decaindo de valor. E ser de esquerda é o contrário: vai do horizonte até a casa.

Eduardo – Esse pensar a partir de si mesmo significa: como é que eu posso me manter onde estou e não perder nada? Como é que eu posso preservar os meus privilégios, mexer no mundo sem mexer em mim?

Déborah – Acho que a Dilma, o PT, têm sido de direita nesse sentido. O que importa é estender seus próprios privilégios aos outros, trazer os outros para si mesmo, mas pensando a partir de si mesmo. O que eu sou é o que eles devem ser também. Eu continuo a ser o que eu era e dou aos outros um pouco do que eu sou, e no melhor dos mundos eles vão acabar sendo iguais a mim. E a Marina é – ou seria – essa outra maneira de pensar, a partir da floresta, a partir desses outros povos, seria pensar nas outras possibilidades de ser diferente.

“Para imaginar o não fim do mundo é preciso imaginar o fim do capitalismo”

Eduardo – É pensar que o centro do Brasil é a Amazônia, e não São Paulo. No sentido de que é lá que está se decidindo o futuro do Brasil, não em São Paulo. É o que a gente fizer lá, com as pessoas de lá, que vai definir o que o Brasil vai ser. O Brasil vai ser todo São Paulo? Igual a São Paulo? É isso o que a gente quer? Uma grande São Paulo? Ou a gente quer, ao contrário, que o Brasil se “amazonize”, que o que resta de Amazônia no Brasil possa contaminar o Brasil que se “desamazonizou”. A Mata Atlântica sumiu. A gente não quer voltar tudo, mas a gente quer que a Amazônia nos ensine a voltar a ser Mata Atlântica. A gente quer que a Amazônia nos ensine como os pobres da cidade podem voltar a ser um pouco índios. E a gente sabe que, do ponto de vista geopolítico, histórico, a Amazônia é o centro do Brasil. É lá que está rolando tudo. E o pessoal fica discutindo a eleição em São Paulo. É bom que discuta. Tem que discutir a água de São Paulo, é claro. Mas como é que se discute a água de São Paulo? É por causa da Amazônia que está faltando água em São Paulo. É por causa do que estamos fazendo na Amazônia que estamos sofrendo falta de água aqui. Ah, mas a ligação não é direta. Claro que não é direta. Mas existe, e é por ela que a coisa passa. A plataforma da Dilma, no fundo, é isso. Você olha a partir de São Paulo, Brasília, Rio… Você olha a Amazônia a partir de onde você está e vê a Amazônia lá no fundo. Ou então você pode olhar o Brasil a partir da Amazônia e se perguntar o que isso significa. Isso é sair de onde eu estou, é mudar minha posição.

Acho que foi a Isabelle Stengers (filósofa belga) que disse que “o capitalismo pode não se preocupar com a atmosfera, mas é muito mais grave que a atmosfera não se preocupe com o capitalismo”. Você, Eduardo, afirma que é mais fácil imaginar o fim do capitalismo do que o fim do mundo, mas que teremos de imaginar os dois. Mas quem fala no fim do capitalismo é visto como alguém que está viajando, que está fora da realidade. Se essa é também uma crise de imaginação, como fazer isso, na medida em que seria imaginação contra poder?

Eduardo – O ambiente, o clima, a atmosfera estão mudando mais depressa do que o capitalismo, do que a sociedade. O Obama falou isso agora. A gente sempre imaginou a sociedade mudando num ritmo muito mais rápido do que a natureza, que era um pano de fundo imóvel para a história do homem. O fato de que o capitalismo não acaba é a razão pela qual o mundo está acabando, vamos dizer assim. O capitalismo – esse sistema socioeconômico e técnico, instalado desde o começo da modernidade, com a invasão da América, alterações no sistema de propriedade, mudanças técnicas que sobrevieram na Europa ali no começo do século 16, acentuando-se de maneira dramática com a industrialização e o uso de combustíveis fósseis no século 18 – é o responsável pelo estado presente do mundo. Ou seja, para imaginar o não fim do mundo, nós temos que imaginar o fim do capitalismo. E isso é extremamente difícil. Porque a questão do capitalismo nunca foi substituir, mas somar, sobrepor. Então nós temos hoje o quê? Nunca se consumiu tanto carvão quanto se consome agora. Então essa coisa de que o petróleo iria substituir o carvão, porque o petróleo é menos poluente do que o carvão, não é verdade. Está se consumindo mais carvão do que petróleo. Agora está se usando energia nuclear, energia eólica, energia solar. Isso não baixou o consumo de petróleo. O que está acontecendo é que nós estamos acrescentando fontes de energia, ou seja, não para nunca. Quanto mais melhor.

E como se imaginaria o fim do capitalismo?

Eduardo – O fim do capitalismo, provavelmente, não virá do esgotamento das fontes energéticas. Ele virá de outro lugar. Ele virá, provavelmente, de catástrofes climáticas, sociais, políticas. Aí já me permito sonhar um pouco. Com uma certa capacidade de a população planetária pouco a pouco ir criando pequenos bolsões alternativos de deserção. Enfim, uma certa “indianização” da população, na tentativa de se tornar independente das fontes globais de mercadoria, dos sistemas globais de transporte e de energia e lutar pelo mínimo de autossuficiência local, como já vem acontecendo em muitos lugares do planeta. Com ênfase no município, na comunidade, nos governos locais, nos arranjos locais, no transporte de curta distância, no consumo de produtos produzidos não muito longe de casa. Acho que vai haver uma certa contração da economia, porque é muito possível que essas crises afetem os sistemas mundiais de distribuição de energia. Veja essa seca de São Paulo. O que é isso? Isso significa que, enfim, essas cidades gigantescas que dependem de redes gigantescas de aprovisionamento de energia, de água, de eletricidade, etc, vão se tornar inviáveis. Acho que nós tendemos a um mundo de bairros, mais do que a um mundo de megalópoles. A tendência vai ser você criar um mundo onde as relações de vizinhança, a usina solar local, as hortas comunitárias, os governos de vereança local vão se tornar cada vez mais importantes. Acho que vai haver uma inversão da política, cada vez mais de baixo para cima do que de cima para baixo. Ou, pelo menos, a pressão de baixo para cima vai tender a contrabalançar a pressão de cima para baixo exercida pelas grandes companhias de petróleo, pelos governos nacionais, pelos grandes tomadores de decisão do mundo. Eles vão começar a se defrontar com uma multiplicação de ações locais, uma multiplicação de iniciativas cidadãs, se você quiser, que vão se parecer mais com o índio do que com o turista globetrotter que atravessa o planeta como se tivesse sempre no mesmo lugar em toda a parte. Acho que essa é uma maneira de imaginar o fim do capitalismo.

Déborah – Mas acho que isso não basta, porque será necessário um enfrentamento. Senão fica parecendo que cada um saindo para por em prática sua ação local seria o suficiente…

Eduardo – Vai haver sangue, como se diz. Lembremos que a Primavera Árabe teve como um dos fatores fundamentais uma crise brutal de abastecimento alimentar. De pão, particularmente. De trigo. O governo chinês tem tomado medidas dramáticas de redução da poluição e de tentativa de baixar um pouco a bola, porque está havendo uma grande quantidade de revoltas populares, de motins, dessas coisas que a gente não sabe, porque a Muralha na China é altíssima em termos de censura. Mas está havendo uma reação das populações locais, que estão brigando com os governos e pressionando para que ele tome medidas. O futuro nos reserva grandes acontecimentos ruins em termos de catástrofes climáticas, de fome, de seca…

Para vocês, qualquer saída, se há saída, passa pela recusa do excepcionalismo humano. Apareceu várias vezes no colóquio esse mundo de humanos e não humanos horizontalizados. Como seria esse mundo e como mudar uma forma de funcionar, na qual a visão de si mesmo como centro está confundida com a própria identidade do que é ser um humano?

“O símbolo de nossa relação com o mundo é o drone. Somos todosdrones

Eduardo – Tem uma frase que o Lévi-Strauss escreveu certa vez, que é muito bonita. Ele diz que nós começamos por nos considerarmos especiais em relação aos outros seres vivos. Isso foi só o primeiro passo para, em seguida, alguns de nós começar a se achar melhores do que os outros seres humanos. E nisso começou uma história maldita em que você vai cada vez excluindo mais. Você começou por excluir os outros seres vivos da esfera do mundo moral, tornando-os seres em relação aos quais você pode fazer qualquer coisa, porque eles não teriam alma. Esse é o primeiro passo para você achar que alguns seres humanos não eram tão humanos assim. O excepcionalismo humano é um processo de monopolização do valor. É o excepcionalismo humano, depois o excepcionalismo dos brancos, dos cristãos, dos ocidentais… Você vai excluindo, excluindo, excluindo… Até acabar sozinho, se olhando no espelho da sua casa. O verdadeiro humanismo, para Lévi-Strauss, seria aquele no qual você estende a toda a esfera do vivente um valor intrínseco. Não quer dizer que são todos iguais a você. São todos diferentes, como você. Restituir o valor significa restituir a capacidade de diferir, de ser diferente, sem ser desigual. É não confundir nunca diferença e desigualdade. Não é por acaso que todas as minorias exigem respeito. Respeitar significa reconhecer a distância, aceitar a diferença, e não simplesmente ir lá, tirar os pobrezinhos daquela miséria em que eles estão. Respeitar quer dizer: aceite que nem todo mundo quer viver como você vive.

O atual governo, por exemplo, assim como setores da sociedade brasileira, parecem ter dificuldade de reconhecer os índios, os ribeirinhos e os quilombolas no caminho das grandes obras como gente. Se isso é difícil quando se trata de humanos, é imensamente mais difícil respeitar as diferenças dos animais ou das árvores, que, nesse conceito de excepcionalidade que atravessa a nossa forma de enxergar o mundo – e nós no mundo – estão a serviço dos humanos…

Eduardo – Uma coisa é você dizer que os animais são humanos, no sentido de direitos humanos. Outra coisa é dizer que os animais são pessoas, isto é, são seres que têm valor intrínseco. É isso o que significa ser pessoa. Reconhecer direitos aos demais viventes não é reconhecer direitos humanos aos demais viventes. É reconhecer direitos característicos e próprios daquelas diferentes formas de vida. Os direitos de uma árvore não são os mesmos direitos de um cidadão brasileiro da espécie homo sapiens. O que não quer dizer, entretanto, que ela não tenha direitos. Por exemplo, o direito à existência, que só pode ser negado sob condições que exigem reflexão. Os índios não acham que as árvores são iguais a eles. O que eles acham simplesmente é que você não faz nada impunemente. Todo ser vivo, com exceção dos vegetais, tem que tirar a vida de um outro ser vivo para sobreviver. A diferença está no fato de que os índios sabem disso. E sabem que isso é algo sério. Nós estamos acostumados a fazer a nossa caça nos supermercados, não somos mais capazes de olhar de frente uma galinha antes de matá-la para comer. Assim, perdemos a consciência de que nós vivemos num mundo em que viver é perigoso e traz consequências. E que comer tem consequências. Os animais seriam pessoas no sentido de que eles possuem valor intrínseco, eles têm direito à vida, e só podemos tirar a vida deles quando a nossa vida depende disso. Isso é uma coisa que, para os índios, é absolutamente claro. Se você matar à toa, você vai ter problemas. Eles não estão dizendo que é tudo igual. Eles estão dizendo que tudo possui um valor intrínseco e que mexer com isso envolve você mesmo. Acho que o símbolo da nossa relação com o mundo, hoje, é o tipo de guerra que os Estados Unidos fazem com os drones, aqueles aviões não tripulados, ou apertando um botão. Ou seja, você nem vê a desgraça que você está produzindo. Nós todos, hoje, estamos numa relação com o mundo cujo símbolo seria o drone. A pessoa está lá nos Estados Unidos apertando um botão num computador, aquilo vai lá para o Paquistão, joga uma bomba em cima de uma escola, e a pessoa que apertou o botão não está nem sabendo o que está acontecendo. Ou seja, nós estamos distantes. As consequências de nossas ações estão cada vez mais separadas das nossas ações.

Perderam-se os sentidos e as conexões entre morrer e matar…

Eduardo – Exatamente. Ou seja, o índio que vai para o mato e tem que flechar o inimigo, ele tem que arcar com as consequências psicológicas, morais, simbólicas disso. Aquele soldadinho americano que está num quartel nos Estados Unidos, apertando um botão, ele nem sabe o que está fazendo. Porque ele está longe. Você cada vez mais distancia os efeitos das suas ações de você mesmo. Então nós somos todos dronesnesse sentido. A gente compra carne no supermercado quadradinha, bem embaladinha, refrigeradinha, sem cara de bicho. E você está o mais longe possível daquela coisa horrorosa que é o matadouro. Daquela coisa horrorosa que são as fazendas em que as galinhas estão enfiadas em gaiolas apertadas. Se o pessoal lembrar que 50% das galinhas que nascem são galos e que esses 50% que nascem são triturados ao nascer para virar ração animal porque não colocam ovos, talvez não conseguissem comer galinhas. Se você mostrasse que metade dos pintinhos vão todos vivos para uma máquina que tritura, talvez melhorasse um pouco. Mas as pessoas não querem saber disso. Nisso, nós somos iguaizinhos ao soldado americano que aperta o botão para matar inocentes no Paquistão. Nós fazemos a mesma coisa com as galinhas. Nós somos todos drones. Temos uma relação com o mundo igual à que os Estados Unidos tem com suas máquinas de guerra. Somos como os pilotos da bomba atômica que não sabiam bem o que estavam fazendo quando soltaram a bomba atômica em cima de Hiroshima. Dissociação mental. Essa coisa de não se dar conta do que a gente está fazendo, por um lado está aumentando. Mas, por outro lado, com a mudança climática, as pessoas estão começado a perceber que o que elas estão fazendo está influenciando o mundo. Estamos num momento crucial: por um lado o aumento brutal do modelo drone, com tudo cada vez mais distante, e, por outro, as catástrofes batendo na sua porta. O mar está subindo, o furacão está chegando, a seca está vindo.

Eu queria terminar perguntando o seguinte: vocês escrevem que tudo o que pode ser dito sobre a mudança climática se torna anacrônico e tudo o que se pode fazer a respeito é necessariamente pouco e tarde demais. Então, o que fazer? Como sonhar outros sonhos, como diz Isabelle Stengers? Ou como dançar para que o céu não caia na nossa cabeça, como fazem os índios?

Déborah – É tarde demais para algumas coisas, mas não para outras. Disso a gente não pode esquecer nunca. Por exemplo: nós não podemos fazer sumir em curto, médio ou longo prazo com esses gases de efeito estufa. E nem com o forte desequilíbrio energético que nós já causamos, já imprimimos ao sistema climático da Terra. E como as emissões continuam aumentando, acho que não seria razoável esperar, politicamente, que essas emissões sejam estancadas de uma hora para outra.

Eduardo – O mundo está esquentando e não vai parar de esquentar mesmo se a gente parar agora. Já começou um processo que é irreversível, até certo ponto.

Déborah – Então, uma parte do que vai acontecer não depende mais das nossas decisões e ações presentes. Já é passado. Mas existe uma diferença enorme entre um aquecimento de dois graus e um aquecimento de, sei lá, quatro e seis graus. Essa diferença é a diferença entre um mundo difícil e um mundo hostil à espécie humana e a várias outras espécies. Quer dizer, a diferença se traduz entre milhares de mortes por ano em virtude de eventos extremos e milhões de flagelados do clima, de vítimas fatais, talvez centenas de milhões, até, como alguns chegam a dizer. Isso sem contar as outras espécies. Então, não podemos nos dar ao luxo de nos desesperarmos, eu acho.

O desespero é um luxo?

Déborah – É, o desespero seria um luxo. Se a gente pensa em nós mesmos, nos nossos filhos, e nos outros viventes que existem e que vão existir, se desesperar não é uma opção. Então, por um lado a gente tem que fazer o que puder para mitigar essas emissões, para criar também condições de adaptação das diferentes populações, dos ecossistemas, aos efeitos do aquecimento global. Isso em relação ao que já foi e ao que ainda vai ser, que não poderemos evitar. E, por outro lado, nós temos que fazer, como diz Donna Haraway (filósofa americana), numa expressão que é muito boa, mas que não dá muito para traduzir em português: stay with the trouble. Ficar, viver com o problema. Aguentar. Não é só aguentar o tranco. É: sim, temos esse mundo empobrecido, mas nós vamos viver com ele. O que significa viver como a grande maioria das pessoas já vive. Pessoas que não podem se proteger desse mundo que a gente criou, ou acha que criou. Há uma porção de populações que stay with the trouble há muito tempo, e a gente vai ter que aprender com elas.

Eduardo – A gente vai ter que aprender a ter sociedades com capacidade de mudar de escala. Imagina uma aldeia indígena, numa ilha, em que o mar sobe um metro. Será necessário mudar a aldeia de lugar porque o mar subiu um metro. Vai ter que entrar mais para dentro da costa. É chato, tal, mas ela muda de lugar. Agora, imagina Nova York. Os caras não vão conseguir tirar o Empire State do lugar. Ou seja, tem modos de vida em que é muito mais fácil se adaptar ao que vem por aí. Por um lado, a gente fala: quem vai se dar mal primeiro? Quem vai se dar mal primeiro com as mudanças climáticas vão ser os pobres. Eles é que vão ser os primeiros a sofrer. É verdade. Por outro lado, eu desconfio que eles vão ser os primeiros a sofrer e os primeiros a se virar.

Eliane Brum é escritora, repórter e documentarista. Autora dos livros de não ficçãoColuna Prestes – o Avesso da Lenda, A Vida Que Ninguém vê, O Olho da Rua, A Menina Quebrada, Meus Desacontecimentos e do romance Uma Duas. Site: elianebrum.com Email: elianebrum.coluna@gmail.com Twitter: @brumelianebrum

Disruption

Disruption

Disruption

Disruption opens with a serene archival footage, from Apollo 8 lunar mission, of the Earth rising over the horizon of the Moon before jumping sharply to modern images of extreme storms and the devastation faced in their aftermath. Cities lie in ruin, streets flooded and buildings aflame. “The world hasn’t ended,” title cards bleakly read. “But the world as we know it has.”

Shot during the 100 days prior to the September 21, 2014 People’s Climate March in New York City, the film serves as a cautionary countdown intended to motivate viewers to take action on the issue of climate change. The audience is taken inside the People’s Climate Mobilization Hub, a New York office space where organizers and activists strive to set in motion the largest climate rally in history. Their primary objective is to capture the consideration of world leaders prior to a major UN climate meeting in order to draw worldwide attention to the existing and future threats of changing weather patterns.

Citing historical movements such as women’s liberation and civil rights as major influences in the decision to facilitate a march, organizers share a unified belief in the power of people coming together in the interest of a common cause, even in the digital age. Experts on climate change, from authors and academics to scientists and community organizers, give viewers a history lesson on the topic at hand and make it clear that weather patterns are an issue of global concern. Interview subjects push to disempower big corporations such as oil companies and other resource-damaging operations, warning that the preservation of our natural resources is a long-term investment more valuable than any monetary sum.

At the end, the filmmakers issue a final call to action, encouraging those with environmental concerns to join their movement at a time when “the whole world will be watching.” Featuring impressive cinematography paired with stock footage and impassioned testimonials, Disruption is both an eye-opening look at a grim future, as well as a motivational piece on how to improve that future.

Watch the full documentary now

Voices from the People’s Climate March: Indigenous Groups Lead Historic 400,000-Strong NYC Protest (Democracy Now!)

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2014

As many as 400,000 people turned out in New York City on Sunday for the People’s Climate March, the largest environmental protest in history. With a turnout far exceeding expectations, the streets of midtown Manhattan were filled with environmentalists, politicians, musicians, students, farmers, celebrities, nurses and labor activists — all united in their demand for urgent action on climate change. Organizers arranged the People’s Climate March into different contingents reflecting the movement’s diversity, with indigenous groups in the lead. Democracy Now! producers Aaron Maté and Elizabeth Press were in the streets to hear from some of the demonstrators taking part in the historic protest.

TRANSCRIPT

This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.

AMY GOODMAN: We turn now to the People’s Climate March. Organizers estimate as many as 400,000 people marched in New York Sunday in the largest climate protest in history. The turnout far exceeded expectations. Other marches and rallies were held in 166 countries. More protests are planned for today. Climate activists are gathering today in downtown Manhattan for a mass sit-in dubbed “Flood Wall Street.” The actions are timed to coincide with the United Nations climate summit taking place here in New York Tuesday. President Obama and over 100 other world leaders are scheduled to attend.

Sunday’s events in New York began with an indigenous sunrise ceremony in Central Park. Indigenous activists then led the march.Democracy Now!‘s Aaron Maté was in the streets at the People’s Climate March.

AARON MATÉ: We’re near the very front of the People’s Climate March, and the sign behind me reads: “Front Lines of Crisis, Forefront of Change.” This march has been divided up into different groups, and at the front are indigenous and front-line communities most impacted by climate change.

CLAYTON THOMASMULLER: Hi. My name is Clayton Thomas-Muller. I’m an organizer with the indigenous peoples’ social movement Idle No More and Defenders of the Land. Things today are going really, really well. We’ve got tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of people on the street. We have front-line indigenous communities from communities that are disproportionately affected by President Obama’s all-of-the-above energy policy. We’ve got leaders from communities fighting fracking, fighting tar sands, pipelines, all kinds of pipeline fighters from across the continent who are organizing in solidarity with First Nations from the belly of the beast in Alberta who are trying to stop tar sands expansion at the source. And we’re here to send a very clear message to President Obama, Stephen Harper and the rest of the world leaders that we need legally binding mechanisms on climate change right now passed, and if they ain’t going to do it, that the people certainly will.

INDIGENOUS ACTIVIST: Hi. We’re here to march for the next seven generations and to take astand against Big Oil companies that are coming through our territories and trying to take our ancestral lands and destroy them. We’re here because it’s going to take all of us—all of us—not just the indigenous people, but everyone in the whole world, to come together to save our water.

PERUVIAN ACTIVIST: We are from the Peruvian delegation here on the March. And we are marching because we are fighting for climate justice, and we are fighting because this December, the next COP event is going to be in our country. And we are preparing a people’s summit and the next march in December 10 in Lima. And we are asking the Peruvian government, Ollanta Humala, for coherence, because even if they are taking pictures here near Ban Ki-moon, they are not doing that kind of commitments in the country. So, we need to fight here, we need to fight in our country. This is a global fight.

EL PUENTE ACTIVIST: Who are we?

EL PUENTE ACTIVISTS: El Puente!

EL PUENTE ACTIVIST: What do we stand for?

EL PUENTE ACTIVISTS: Peace and justice!

FRANCES LUCERNA: My name is Frances Lucerna. I’m the executive director of El Puente. We have about 300-strong here of our young people. We are a human rights organization located in Williamsburg, Brooklyn. Most of our young people are from Puerto Rico, from Dominican Republic. And the connection between what’s happening in terms of our islands and also what’s happening here in our waterfront community that Williamsburg is part of, we need, really, the powers that be to come together with our people and really make decisions that are about preserving our Earth.

CARLOS GARCIA: Hi. My name is Carlos Garcia. I’m the secretary-treasurer of the New York State Public Employees Federation. We represent 54,000 New York state employees who are professional scientific and technical workers. And we’re out here to say to the U.S. government, New York state government, let’s take care of our climate, let’s take care of our environment.

IRENE JOR: My name is Irene Jor. I’m with the National Domestic Workers Alliance with the New York domestic workers here today. And for us, we’re here because, as domestic workers, it’s time to clean up the climate mess.

DOMESTIC WORKERS: We are domestic workers! We want climate justice now!

IRENE JOR: Domestic workers have been part of the struggle for a long time. We’re disproportionately impacted by climate change. For those of us who are migrant women workers, we often come here because of what extractive resources and climate crisis has done to our home countries.

AARON MATÉ: We’ve come upon a huge contingent of young people, many carrying signs reading “Youth choose climate justice.”

YOUTH ACTIVISTS: Obama, we don’t want no climate drama! Hey, Obama, we don’t want no climate drama!

JONAH FELDMAN: My name is Jonah Feldman. I’m here with the Brandeis Divestment Campaign from Brandeis University.

AARON MATÉ: And what does your sign say?

JONAH FELDMAN: It says, “Divest from Climate Change.” We believe that our university should sell off all its investments in the fossil fuel industry—that’s in coal, oil, natural gas, tar sands—and to reinvest into clean, renewable alternatives.

LUIS NAVARRO: Hello. My name Luis Navarro. I’m 16. I’m from Boston, Massachusetts. I’m with the Boston-area Youth Organizing Project. Well, as a youth, I feel like every youth should be a part of this, because it concerns them and their future, whether or not if they can live by 20 years from now with this climate change. And I feel like it’s important for me to be here to show them that the youth is on our side.

AARON MATÉ: As we weave through this march that has taken over midtown Manhattan, tens of thousands out in full force, coming across all different sorts of diverse groups.

VEGAN: Number one way to fight climate change: Go vegan.

REV. SUSAN DE GEORGE: I’m Susan De George, and I’m with both Green Faith and with Hudson River Presbytery. We have everybody from Jains, Sikhs, Buddhists, Hindus, Catholics, Protestants, atheists, agnostics, all marching in a group.

PROTESTERS: What do we want? Climate justice! When do we want it? Now!

CAITLIN CALLAHAN: My name is Caitlin Callahan. I’m from Rockaway Beach, and I’m an organizer with Rockaway Wildfire. Superstorm Sandy devastated the Rockaway Peninsula. We know that climate change is being worsened and exacerbated by all of the systemic profiteering that’s happening throughout our world. And it’s time for that to stop. If you haven’t been involved in climate justice activism before, it’s time to get involved in climate justice activism, because this is affecting all of us.

BRADEN ELLIOTT: My name is Braden Elliott. I’m a Ph.D. student at Dartmouth College, and I’m here because I care.

AARON MATÉ: And the banner under which the scientists are marching is “The Debate is Over”?

BRADEN ELLIOTT: Correct. The banner says “The Debate is Over” because the core part, the part that the planet is warming and that humans are responsible for the lion’s share of it, is settled. There’s always debate to be had on the edges of a large topic, but the call to action is very clear.

AARON MATÉ: And now we’re in the bloc of demonstrators under the banner of “We Know Who is Responsible,” anti-corporate campaigners, peace and justice groups, those who are organizing against the groups they say are holding back progress.

SANDRA NURSE: My name is Sandra Nurse. I’m here with the Flood Wall Street contingent. We’re calling on people to do a mass sit-in in the financial district to highlight the connections between corporate capitalism, extractive industries, the financing and bankrolling of climate change, the financing of politicians who will not bring meaningful legislation to the table and who are blocking the process of actually bringing meaningful legislation against climate change.

FLOOD WALL STREET CONTINGENT: All day, all week, let’s flood Wall Street!

AMY GOODMAN: Some of the voices from the 400,000-strong People’s Climate March here in New York. Special thanks to Aaron Maté and Elizabeth Press in the streets for Democracy Now!

What’s next for climate science beyond the IPCC? (Sci Dev Net)

23/09/14

Audio

In lead to December’s 20th UN Conference of Parties on climate change, scientists and policymakers are reflecting on the future of climate science. Many are questioning whether the existing mechanisms that feed scientific evidence into international politics are working well enough.

In this interview Ilan Kelman argues that, despite its important work, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with its consensus-based approach, is no longer suited to the new challenges posed by climate change.

The Changing Face of Climate Change (Slate)

Will the leaders of the People’s Climate March now lead the movement?

At the front of the People’s Climate March, moments before the crowd began to move, you could look back and see the wall of stone that makes up the wealthy Upper West Side apartment buildings to your left, and Central Park to your right, in the last of its full-blown green phase before the leaves start to turn. Visible on the street: signs, artwork, and many, many heads.

In the front section of the march, designated by organizers for “the people first and most impacted,” were representatives of the Kichwa from Ecuador, Taino from the Caribbean, Winnemem Wintu from California, and many other indigenous groups in traditional clothing. There were also members of the media and the musician Sting. Young people of color from Brooklyn held large paper sunflowers and an enormous banner reading: “FRONTLINES OF CRISIS, FOREFRONT OF CHANGE.” Above them were the glossy towers that mark the beginning of Midtown and the bright red CNN sign against the fog signaling that the 11:30 a.m. start time was drawing closer. On his spire, Columbus had his back to the crowd.

The march was already the largest climate demonstration in history before the walking began. There was plenty of excitement. But the drums, the chanting, and the drone of conch-shell horns added an air of warfare.

Indigenous and underprivileged communities are already experiencing the worst impact of climate change, and for those at the front of the march, battle-ready would seem an appropriate posture.

People's Climate March.

Many of the indigenous groups participating in the People’s Climate March on Sept. 21, 2014, in New York City, wore traditional clothing. Photo by Cem Ozdel/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Ricken Patel, the founder of the online activist network called Avaaz, told us shortly before the march: “We know that the most vulnerable communities get if first and worst every time.” The refrain was repeated by so many others, and research corroborates it. An analysis from Yale and George Mason University finds that in the United States, climate change is most likely to affect “Hispanics, African Americans, and other racial and ethnic groups who are likely to be more vulnerable to heat waves, extreme weather events, environmental degradation, and subsequent labor market dislocations.”

The people at the front of the march were themselves a sign that the face of mainstream climate activism has shifted from polar bears and Priuses toward marginalized communities. It is, in theory, a shift from what climate researcher Angela Park wrote in 2009 was a movement that “still suffers from the perception, and arguably the reality, that it is … led by and designed for the interests of the white, upper-middle class.”

Seven representatives from frontline communities spoke at a press conference before the march began, including Kathy Jetnil-Kijiner, a 26-year-old writer, professor, and spoken-word artist from the Marshall Islands. She has also been selected by the United Nations from a group of 544 nominees to speak in the opening ceremonies of Tuesday’s Climate Summit.

We caught up with her after the march. Jetnil-Kijiner is small in stature, with long black curly hair, and she appeared exhausted after arriving from the Marshall Islands just the day before the march (not to mention marching and speaking to reporters all day), but she managed to reanimate herself. Walking in Central Park, she told us that she first felt called to climate activism after returning to the Marshall Islands after college in 2010. “There are some parts of the Marshalls where you can stand and see both sides of the ocean,” she said. Rising sea levels, one of the most devastating and permanent consequences of climate change, threaten the very existence of low-lying island nations. In 2008, she woke one morning to find her home island flooded. Houses were destroyed, debris was everywhere, and once the waters receded, the trees shriveled because of the salt.

While people like Jetnil-Kijiner were physically at the front of the march, the question remains whether their voices will be drowned out by the bigger names of climate activism, the Bill McKibbens and the Ricken Patels.

140922_SCI_PeoplesClimateMarch04

Demonstrators take part in the People’s Climate March on Sept. 21, 2014, in New York City. Photo by Lisa Larson-Walker

The night before the march, McKibben and other writers and politicians spoke on a panel in the packed Unitarian Church of All Souls on the Upper East Side. Nearing the end of the discussion, the moderator, Brian Lehrer, asked McKibben what was the unified message that he wanted people to take away from the march. Instead of answering, McKibben metaphorically passed the mic, saying, “There will be people from communities who have had to deal with Sandy, the ongoing fact of living in a place where every third kid has an inhaler. They’ll do a good job of speaking powerfully.”

Just before the march, Ananda Lee Tan, an organizer with the Global Alliance for Incinerator Alternatives, told us, “We’re seeing a shift in the movement. This march really marks a flipping of the script.” Tan explained that the communities most impacted by extreme weather have joined together. “We’re taking over the leadership of the U.S. climate movement,” he said, “and so we’ll see on the streets today probably the most diverse, broad, grass-roots climate movement that the U.S. has ever seen.”

The difference is not that communities most threatened by climate change are now involved in the climate change movement. As Jacqueline Patterson, the NAACP’s Environment and Climate Justice Program director, pointed out in a phone interview, frontline communities have been involved in climate justice from the beginning of the movement. What’s new is that a wide range of groups, from labor unions and indigenous tribes to the Granny Peace Brigade, was marching in the same place.

People’s Climate March.

The People’s Climate March was the largest climate demonstration in history. Photo by Lisa Larson-Walker

Still, Patterson had a more cautious view of the role of frontline communities in the march and the wider movement. She said that while there was now more acknowledgement that frontline communities needed to be engaged, there was “to a lesser extent, an acknowledgement that the frontline communities need to lead.”

On the Wednesday before the march, a 28-year-old Avaaz canvasser (who preferred to remain anonymous, citing a nondisclosure agreement) echoed Patterson’s concerns. He said there was much improvement in the communication with frontline communities, but he was skeptical of the “big greens” such as Avaaz, 350.org, and the Sierra Club, arguing that they needed to deepen their understanding of organizing in frontline communities. “There’s a lot of wisdom there,” he said. Specifically, he wanted the established environmental organizations to give more money directly to grass-roots organizations. He told us that he planned to quit his canvassing job that evening. He didn’t want to canvas in Washington Square Park anymore; he planned to return to his home community of Staten Island to organize there.

The test of the movement’s potency will, of course, be its coordination beyond the march, its ability to maintain the unity that defined it. And on Tuesday, Kathy Jetnil-Kijiner will have an opportunity to tell world leaders about the Marshall Islands, about what it is like to live on land just two meters above sea level. She is tired of answering the question of where the Marshall Islanders will move when the islands are gone. “We don’t want to move, and we shouldn’t have to move,” she said. “There should be changes now so that doesn’t have to happen.”

Naomi Klein on Cause of Climate Crisis: “Capitalism Is Stupid” (Truthout)

Wednesday, 24 September 2014 09:46

By Sarah Jaffe

2014 923 klein st

Naomi Klein (Photo: Ed Kashi). Naomi Klein, author of the groundbreaking books, No Logo and The Shock Doctrine, is back with a new groundbreaking work, This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate. The book resets the debate over global warming by focusing on how it is integrally related to the current economic system that spans the globe. Contribute to Truthout and receive this vitally important work. Click here now.

Naomi Klein is out to change hearts and minds around climate change.

Her new book, This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. the Climate out now from Simon & Schuster, is a broad challenge to those who want a livable planet: We need to come up with a livable economic system too. Deeply researched and personally reported, Klein’s third book takes us from the tar sands in Alberta (“Earth, skinned alive”) to the oil-soaked waters of the Gulf of Mexico (“a miscarriage”), from climate denier conferences to a meeting of would-be geoengineers, as she traces the path of destruction that capitalism and a mindset she terms “extractivism” – that is perhaps even older – have left on the Earth.

At one point, Klein concedes, it might have been possible to stop the climate crisis with a few regulations here, a carbon tax there. But we’re too far gone for that, and nothing but a full-on change in how humans relate to the Earth and to each other will save us now.

The good news is that Klein has written an immensely hopeful book, a book about people who believe they can make change and who are doing it in the face of a political and economic system that would seem to doom them to failure. She doesn’t define what comes after capitalism, leaving that to the social movements she describes being born all over the world, but sketches its broad outlines, letting us know what this new climate justice movement is against – but also what it is for – and making a case for a broad redistributive justice movement that would include already-existing movements for racial justice, feminism and decolonization.

The problem is, capitalism is stupid … in that it doesn’t actually think.

Truthout’s Sarah Jaffe caught up with Klein on the eve of the People’s Climate March and of the United Nations Climate Summit in New York to talk about why liberalism is not enough, why billionaires can’t save us, and what we need to do to save ourselves.

Sarah Jaffe for Truthout: You’ve written two other books, No Logo andThe Shock Doctrine, that helped to name and understand a particular historic moment. How was this book a direct outgrowth of your previous work, and how has your worldview changed in the years since those other books?

Naomi Klein: In many ways this is a direct continuation of The Shock Doctrine, in that that book begins and ends with Hurricane Katrina and a glimpse of a future in which our world becomes more and more disaster-prone, with an unstable climate and an unstable economy, and each shock pushes us further apart. It’s the vision of the future that I think we actually take so for granted that we just keep repeating that same vision in every sci-fi apocalyptic movie that gets produced. It’s a small group of winners and hordes of locked-out losers.

The Shock Doctrine was about the worst of humanity in crisis. A lot of people asked me, after it was published, whether or not there could be a progressive response. I remember the first event I did for The Shock Doctrine, before it actually came out, in New Orleans and Saket Soni, a fantastic organizer [with the National Guestworker Alliance and the New Orleans Workers’ Center for Racial Justice], stood up and he said, “OK, they have disaster capitalism, we need disaster collectivism!” I used to quote him all the time. I end that book talking about how there are progressive precedents for crisis being moments of tremendous progressive victory and indeed this is why the right learned how to get in there fast before that could happen, that’s what the Shock Doctrine is.

Going back to No Logo, which was more about tracking the rise of the global production chain, part of what [This Changes Everything] is saying is, we knew that they were combing the world for the cheapest possible labor, and we know the effects of that. I think what was less clear at the time is that there was a direct connection between cheap labor and dirty energy, because if you’re a corporation and all you care about is cutting your production costs, that’s all that matters, it’s going to be cheap, abused labor that doesn’t have the freedom to organize, and it’s going to be coal, the cheapest and dirtiest of the fossil fuels.

So the explosion of the so-called global economy has coincided with an emissions explosion, and why would we be surprised by that, in retrospect? But I think when we were fighting those free-trade deals, a lot of us didn’t understand the climate dimension of that battle. It’s all one long story.

In this book, you say what people just aren’t supposed to say: that fixing the climate is incompatible with capitalism. In particular, you point out the ways that the profit motive has proved corrupting, in some cases to green groups themselves, in other cases to the supposedly beneficent pledges made by the superrich. Can you talk a little bit about how profit hasn’t been able to, and won’t be able to, solve the crisis?

There’s a chapter in the book on why the billionaires won’t save us, and the point of that chapter is not to play gotcha with Michael Bloomberg and Richard Branson. It’s actually to say OK, let’s say that these are the most enlightened billionaires on the planet. And let’s say that they at various points have had the shit scared out of them about climate change. But locked within the imperatives of their model, it’s possible for Michael Bloomberg to simultaneously understand the medium-term risk of fossil fuels and to back reports like “Risky Business” that are all about warnings about the billions of dollars in costs that come with a destabilized climate, and Michael Bloomberg, as an investor, to choose, in a very short-term way, to put his billions in oil and gas, which is what he does.

There was this idea that it was just a process of convincing very wealthy people that this really was a problem, and that there really were costs down the road and that in the long term it would be better to prevent it from happening.

The problem is, capitalism is stupid. You know that cover of Bloomberg Businessweek, “It’s Global Warming, Stupid,” well, it is global warming, but capitalism is stupid in that it doesn’t actually think. It seeks the maximum short-term profit. I think people are mistaking the fact that there are billionaires out there that do get the extent of the problem and really do talk a good game about carbon bubbles and the economic risk, for the idea that that’s going to translate into action. Where that becomes really dangerous is that the UN believes this too. I keep getting press releases from the UN about how the best part of the summit is that it has unprecedented participation from multinationals and CEOs from Bank of America and Walmart and McDonald’s and Amoco. It’s still this same idea that getting people around the table with the right information and the right incentives in place will solve this from the top, and there won’t need to be any friction.

I think the real difference is that now there’s a movement on the outside that says no, that understands that the imperatives for the fossil fuel industry are fundamentally incompatible with a livable climate. That’s the point of the carbon tracker research that kicked off the fossil fuel divestment movement because students look at those numbers and go OK, my university is investing in companies that have made a bet against my future. You can debate fossil fuel divestment as a tactic, but I think that it’s important to understand what you’re up against, and I think there’s much more clarity in the movement now than there has been in decades.

You write about the elite background of the environmental movement, the people who would go hunting with Teddy Roosevelt to convince him to conserve something. Green groups have often seemed to forget the people and focus on saving animals, land, and, as you note in the book, are often taking money from polluters even as they profess to fight them. Do you think these problems are connected?

Yes. I think the environmental movement is not a social movement like we normally think of social movements. It’s not a movement of outsiders, and it never really was, except for the environmental justice movement, which has always from its birth been in a relationship of tension with the green NGOs.

I think it follows seamlessly from those early hunting trips to having BP on your board of directors. The real issue is that at earlier stages of capitalism I think it was easier to reconcile saving a river or saving a mountain with the overall imperatives of expansion and growth, but we’re now at a point where that’s not the case, we need to cut too much and too quickly.

Their model used to be “Sue the Bastards” and it became, . . . “Make Markets for the Bastards.”

The other real turning point, as I say in the book, was what happened in the 1980s. It was Nixon who introduced some of the best top-down environmental regulations. There is a Republican tradition in this country of regulating polluters. But that tradition long ago died. Nobody gets regulated anymore, including polluters. What happened in the ’80s is that it became clear that in order to hang on to that insider status that these green groups needed to change. Some groups decided forget it, we’re going to go on the outside, and there were breakaways and new groups formed that were more militant. And other groups changed with the times.

The Environmental Defense Fund is a really interesting example because they were inspired by Rachel Carson; they are the group that deserves a huge amount of the credit for why DDT was banned. Their model used to be “Sue the Bastards,” and it became, in Eric Pooley’s words, “Make Markets for the Bastards.” That’s the model that continues to this day, and that’s the model that we’re going to see at the UN [this] week.

Large parts of the environmental movement have always been part of the inside game, and when the inside changed, and neoliberalism took over, the movement changed along with it. That left it uniquely ill-equipped to deal with a crisis like climate change. So we wasted a lot of time with carbon trading and carbon offsetting and touting natural gas as a bridge fuel and basically doing anything but getting off fossil fuels.

There’s a growing movement to push foundations and universities to divest from fossil fuels, though critics have argued that this won’t change the behavior of fossil fuel companies. In the book, you argue for the value of this movement and also talk about the move to “reinvest” that money in cleaner technologies. Can you explain why you support the divestment movement and what is happening with reinvestment?

One of the things that has been most pronounced in the resurgence and emergence of these anti-extractive fights, anti-pipeline fights, is that more and more people are coming to the same conclusion, which is that we can’t just say no – we also have to be providing people with real economic alternatives.  We’re just going to be fighting against the worst possible ideas unless we can show people that there’s actually another economic model that will bring them jobs and a better way of life. I hear this again and again, see it again and again: frontline activists going, “We need to build an economic alternative right here.” Communities in England that are fighting fracking have decided to launch their own renewable energy co-ops. First Nations communities in Canada where they’re fighting the Tar Sands are simultaneously launching renewable energy projects because the extractive industries right now are the only ones offering jobs. It’s critical to show that there are these alternatives if we aren’t just going to be scrambling all the time.

I think renewable energy is threatening precisely because it lends itself to decentralization.

The problem is always funding. There’s no shortage of great alternatives out there that are justice-based. In building these alternatives, you’re also strengthening the resistance to fossil fuels. What we’re hearing from frontline communities is that this is what’s most important to embolden communities to fight back. I highlight something like the Black Mesa Water Coalition: They have shut down a coal power plant and are successfully fighting coal, but there’s limits to how much they can win, they say, unless they can show that there’s another way to bring resources to the communities. They have this great proposal to have a utility-scale solar project on Navajo land, land that used to be a coal mine, it’s been decommissioned. It’s a beautiful elegant plan. This is the kind of thing that needs to be funded. And it isn’t being funded by government.

So if we think about the capital that is being moved from fossil fuels right now – and it is being moved: A lot of schools are saying no, but a few have said yes; a lot of cities have said yes; a whole bunch of foundations are now on board. I’m really excited by the prospect of that capital going into investing in a just transition; that can really show how possible and inspiring this transition is.

But we can’t mistake that for the scale of action. We need the scale of action like we’re seeing in Germany, where you have a national feed-in tariff that is shifting that country with incredible speed to renewable energy. In the meantime, until we get there, we also need some really good examples of this working.

There are so many brilliant technologies that do exist to challenge the crisis, you note – just this week we heard that Burlington, Vermont is now getting all of its power from renewable sources. Yet the people who propose to save the earth with technology are more interested in terrifying types of geoengineering. Why do you think solar energy isn’t exciting enough for them?

I think renewable energy is threatening precisely because it lends itself to decentralization. It’s not that money can’t be made, but it lends itself to more people making less money. Some people have talked about fossil fuels as technologies of the 1%, or the 1% of the 1%, because as soon as you have an extractive-based technology – I’d include nuclear in that – the resource itself is concentrated in specific locations; it’s not available everywhere; it takes a lot of money to get it out; it takes a lot of money to refine it; it takes a lot of money to transport it. That means you’re only going to have a few big players who are going to profit a lot.

What we can have is more deliberate growth and that does mean valuing work that we currently don’t value at all.

So it’s not that you can’t have all kinds of economic opportunities in a renewables-based economy. But it is going to be a more level economy because you have so many players. That’s what’s worked best in Germany, the multiplication of these small-scale projects. You’ve got some big projects as well, but you have 900 new energy co-ops, hundreds of municipal-scale renewable energy utilities popping up. It’s not about whether you can make money off this. It’s about whether a few people are going to continue to make the kind of stupid money that is actually the barrier to progress. I think the answer is no, and that’s why they’re fighting tooth and nail to protect that model and are willing to entertain dimming the sun and fertilizing the seas before they entertain putting up solar panels on a mass scale.

Your subtitle is Capitalism vs. the Climate, but you actually go beyond capitalism and challenge the whole mindset of what you call “extractivism.” I kept finding myself thinking, at various times, that the book was also about “patriarchy vs. the climate” and “colonialism vs. the climate.” There’s a theme that runs through the book where you talk about the need to revalue caring work, women’s reproductive labor, even mention the Wages for Housework movement. I would love to hear you talk about what kind of work we need to value, what kinds of values we need to have in order to create a new system beyond capitalism.

It’s a great question. It is beyond – that’s why I talk about extractivism as a mindset. Some people talk about it as instrumentalism, which is really just about “I’m going to take from you and get whatever I can out of you.” That’s how we relate to each other, and that’s how we relate to the earth. It’s not a reciprocal relationship, it isn’t a regenerative relationship. We need to get at the core of how we got here in the first place, which was this mentality of this intense hierarchy between people who supposedly mattered and people who didn’t matter, places that supposedly mattered and places that didn’t matter and could therefore be sacrificed.

It is important to understand the clash between the kind of economic growth that we have and the constraints presented to us by atmospheric science. We can’t just keep growing our economy. But that said, there are low-carbon parts of our economy that we want to expand and can expand. What we can’t have is stupid growth in the same way that we can’t have stupid profits. What we can have is more deliberate growth, and that does mean valuing work that we currently don’t value at all.

When we do that work of valuing work that is now being belittled and mistreated, what we start doing is creating more economic options for people and for communities, and that in turn makes it less likely for people to make those impossible decisions that so many communities are being asked to make right now; whether to have water or whether to have a mine; or whether to have a refinery in their backyard.

That’s why I talk about basic income as well, that there has to be a stronger social safety net because when people don’t have options, they’re going to make bad choices. Let’s have better choices on the table.

You write about the hope that has come since you started work on this book, the new movements, the new attention. What more hopeful signs have you seen since you finished the book?

I’m excited about the energy of this moment where I see a lot of people engaging in climate change that I know weren’t engaged just a year ago. It’s really exciting to see a lot of people who were involved in Occupy Wall Street getting involved in Flood Wall Street. I think those connections are being made really fast by some really smart people who’ve already shown that they can change the debate.

Having spent a few weeks talking mostly to journalists about the book, a lot of mainstream journalists outside of the US, I think that the moment we’re in is essentially about whether or not we believe in social movements. It’s really striking to me. If somebody, a progressive person who has experience with social movements and believes in social movements reads the book, they tell me that they feel inspired and hopeful and excited. But a lot of the liberal journalists who I’ve been speaking to tell me that they read the book, and it just fills them with despair because they don’t believe in activism. I expected to be having arguments about the science; I expected to be having arguments about the policy: I’ve had basically none of those. I’m having arguments about whether or not there’s a reason to have any hope at all. That’s a hard thing to do all day!

I think there’s something about climate change – I’m realizing this more and more since finishing the book – that really demarcates the difference between liberals and radicals, liberals and leftists in the sense that if you are really committed to that sort of reasonable centrist reformist model, top-down model of change, and you also are willing to look at the science and look at the, be honest about the kind of economy we’re in, then you’re filled with despair. Look at Ezra Klein writing “7 reasons America will fail on climate change.” If you believe that the only way the world changes is through a combination of policy wonks and enlightened leaders, then you will be in despair because you will look at the aligned, entrenched interests in a dysfunctional democracy, and you will say “we’re cooked.”

If, however, you believe that social movements have grabbed the wheel of history before and might just do it again, if you’ve caught glimpses of that in your life, the moments when suddenly it seems that everything’s changing, then you still hold out that hope.

I’m looking forward to being around activists for a few days!

Heirs to Rockefeller oil fortune divest from fossil fuels over climate change (The Guardian)

Heirs to Standard Oil fortune join campaign that will withdraw a total of $50bn from fossil fuels, including from tar sands funds

US will not commit to climate change aid for poor nations

in New York

The Guardian, Monday 22 September 2014 17.19 BST

Peter O'Neill, head of the Rockefeller family and great-great-grandson of John D Rockefeller, along with Neva Rockefeller Goodwin (second from the right_, great-granddaughter of of John D. Rockefeller, and Stephen B Heintz, president of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund.

Peter O’Neill, head of the Rockefeller family and great-great-grandson of John D Rockefeller, along with Neva Rockefeller Goodwin (second from the right_, great-granddaughter of of John D. Rockefeller, and Stephen B Heintz, president of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. Photograph: Brendan McDermid/Reuters

The heirs to the fabled Rockefeller oil fortune withdrew their funds from fossil fuel investments on Monday, lending a symbolic boost to a $50bn divestment campaign ahead of a United Nations summit on climate change.

The former vice-president, Al Gore, will present the divestment commitments to world leaders, making the case that investments in oil and coal have an uncertain future.

With Monday’s announcement, more than 800 global investors – including foundations such as the Rockefeller Brothers, religious groups, healthcare organisations, cities and universities – have pledged to withdraw a total of $50bn from fossil fuel investments over the next five years.

The Rockefeller Brothers Fund controls about $860m in assets, said Beth Dorsey, the chief executive of the Wallace Global Fund and the Divest-Invest movement, which has led the divestment campaign. About 7% are invested in fossil fuels.

But the Rockefellers’ decision to cut their ties with oil lends the divestment campaign huge symbolic importance because of their family history. The divestment move also helps bring a campaign launched by scrappy activists on college campuses into the financial mainstream.

But for oil, there may not have been a Rockefeller fortune. John and William Rockefeller were the co-founders of the Standard Oil Company, which at the time operated the world’s biggest refineries, and overtime spawned Exxon, Amoco and Chevron.

Now, after a year of deliberations, the descendants of those original Rockefellers had decided the time had come to move away from oil.

“John D Rockefeller, the founder of Standard Oil, moved America out of whale oil and into petroleum,” Stephen Heintz, president of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, said in a statement. “We are quite convinced that if he were alive today, as an astute businessman looking out to the future, he would be moving out of fossil fuels and investing in clean, renewable energy.”

In addition to the Rockefellers, the World Council of Churches, which represents some 590 million people in 150 countries – also pulled its investments from fossil fuels on Monday. The move represented a turning point for a movement which began by demanding that universities purge their financial holdings of ties to the fossil fuel industry.

About 30 cities have also chosen to divest, including Santa Monica and Seattle.

“When you have the Rockefellers and the World Council of Churches and institutions with global reach coming together and divesting, then this movement which began just three short years ago has really reached a significant turning point,” Dorsey said.

In that time, supporters such as Archbishop Desmond Tutu have framed divestment from fossil fuels as a moral imperative – like the anti-apartheid movement of a generation ago.

“Climate change is the human rights challenge of our time. We can no longer continue feeding our addiction to fossil fuels as if there is no tomorrow, for there will be no tomorrow,” Tutu said in a video address.

The Rockefeller Brothers Fund over the years has been a big supporter of environmental causes, including to campaign groups opposed to fracking and the Keystone XL pipeline, which made for an awkward fit at times with its continued investment in oil and gas. The family plans to first divest from tar sands commitments.

A number of universities have also started to cut their ties with fossil fuel – with Stanford University dropping coal holdings from its $18bn endowment.

But divestment remains a hard sell. The University of California system said last week it would continue to hold on to fossil fuels. Harvard University has also resisted pressure from faculty and students to divest – although Yale has said it will look into whether renewable energy offers a better bet in the long run.

“In the last great divestment campaign, Harvard said no before it said yes. I think it’s just a matter of time,” Dorsey said. “Unlike with the anti-apartheid movement, this is not just an ethical issue. There is a powerful financial reason as well.”

Jon Stewart Obliterates Republicans By Highlighting Their Ignorance On Climate Change (Politicus USA)

Tuesday, September, 23rd, 2014, 10:09 am

jon stewart climate changeedited

On Monday night’s episode of The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, host Jon Stewart devoted the first segment of his program to the subject of climate change. He discussed the People’s Climate March that took place in New York City on Sunday,where over 100,000 people took to the streets to bring awareness to the dangers facing our planet due to rapid global warming. Stewart pointed out that, while you would think people around the world are now acutely aware of the existence of climate change and its effects on the environment, this march was necessary because House Republicans continue to deny its existence.

The Daily Show host then directed his attention to a recent hearing by the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, where White House Science Director, John Holdren,spoke in front of the committee to discuss President Obama’s initiative to reduce carbon emissions 30% by the year 2030. Stewart lamented that Holdren had the unenviable task of “pushing a million pounds of idiot up a mountain.”

Below is video of the entire segment, courtesy of Comedy Central.

Stewart highlighted the various Republicans on the committee who peppered Holdren with idiotic questions or flat-out conspiracy theories. Confirmed moron Steve Stockman asked Holdren about global ‘wobbling.’ Stockman wanted to know why it wasn’t included in any climate models when he had read somewhere that it helped contribute to the last major ice age. Holdren patiently pointed out to Stockman that ‘wobbling’ refers to changes in the planet’s tilt and orbit and takes place over tens of thousands of years. It is very slow and has a tiny effect within a time scale of 100 years, which is the normal time frame for climate models.

Of course, the stupid wasn’t just contained to Stockman. A clip was played showing California Congressman Dana Rohrabacher, a well-known climate skeptic, tossing out a question about the dangers of carbon dioxide Rohrabacher wanted to know at what level does carbon dioxide become dangerous for human beings. When Holdren stated that he always enjoys his interactions with Rohrabacher, Stewart interjected, claiming Holdren meant it in the same way someone enjoys playing peek-a-boo with a baby or teasing a cat with a laser pointer. Stewart then showed Holdren’s response, where Holdren told Rohrabacher that his question was a red herring. As Holdren stated, the focus on CO2 is not about whether or not humans can breathe with increased levels, but if those increased levels trap heat in the atmosphere and rapidly change global temperatures.

However, the worst may have been Indiana Representative Larry Bucshon. The Congressman revealed himself as a full-fledged denier on the tin-foil hat variety during the hearing. He wondered why Holdren wasn’t listening to public comments on global warming. Holdren answered that perhaps Bucshon should read the scientific literature available on the subject instead of public opinion. As exasperated Stewart stated that Bucshon should read a climate science journal instead a teabaggers YouTube comments. Stewart then said Bucshon gave away the game when Bucshon told Holdren that he doesn’t believe scientists because it is their job to do these studies. In his opinion, scientists have a vested interest to create a hoax and therefore he won’t read what they produce.

After pointing out Bucshon’s idiocy, while also revealing that Bucshon’s biggest campaign donors are energy companies, Stewart then turned it back to Stockman to end the segment. He showed Stockman asking about the rise of sea levels and wondering how long it will take. Then, Stockman amazingly insisted that sea levels won’t rise because of displacement, using an example of melting ice cubes in a glass. This finally set Stewart off. Stewart tore apart Stockman’s lack of understanding of grade-school science by bringing out a glass of ice water and a bowl of ice. Stewart then proved the point that displacement only takes into account ice that is already in a body of water. However, if you take ice from elsewhere, say land, and put it in a body of water, that water level will rise.

All in all, this was one of Stewart’s best segments in a while. He tore apart the willful ignorance and Koch-funded denial of the Republican Party when it comes to the issue of climate change. The fact is, Republicans are placing us in great harm by refusing to act at all when it comes to global warming and the devastating effects it is having on our country and planet.

On the Cusp of Climate Change (New York Times)

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, via Associated Press

Walruses

Sea ice is critical for all parts of the walrus’s life cycle. Adults dive and eat on these frigid platforms, and females give birth and raise their pups there. But as sea ice retreats during Arctic summers, walruses are being driven ashore.

“In the summer we’ve seen the sea ice recede far to the north,” said Chadwick V. Jay, a research ecologist for the United States Geological Survey. That change is “making it very difficult for walruses to make a living.”

In five of the last seven summers, tens of thousands of female Pacific walruses and their pups have come ashore in Alaska, farther from their preferred prey: the clam, worm and snail beds in the deep waters of the Bering and Chukchi Seas.

An Animal Gamble in the Arctic (8:59) – The Arctic is changing — fast. Two experts who have spent decades working there believe that the marine mammals who call the high latitudes home are now locked into a human-forced ecological game of chance.

Sheng Li/Reuters

Tea

In China, the tea harvest depends on the monsoons: The best tea is harvested in springtime, when the weather is still dry. But climate change threatens to extend the monsoon season.

“Post monsoon season, farmers get much less from their harvest, and a lot of the chemicals that give tea its flavor drop,” said Colin M. Orians, a chemical ecologist at Tufts University. “If climate changes the onset of the monsoon season, farmers will have a shorter window in which to harvest their tea.”

Over the next four years, Dr. Orians and his team will investigate the effects of changing temperatures and rainfall on tea quality and on the livelihoods of farmers who depend on the harvest.

Todd W. Pierson/University of Georgia

Salamanders

Salamanders in the Appalachian Mountains are getting smaller, and species at lower altitudes, where the greatest drying and warming has occurred, are the most affected. One species became 18 percent smaller over 55 years.

“It could be that a change in body size is the first response to climate change,” said Karen Lips, an ecologist at the University of Maryland. “Their food may be affected, and they may be producing smaller babies.”

Dr. Lips partially relied on the data of Richard Highton, a retired ecologist from the University of Maryland who spent 50 years studying and collecting salamanders that are now preserved at the Smithsonian Institution. At the time of his retirement, he noted that salamanders were mysteriously disappearing.

“If they are not nearly as big, they may not be producing as many offspring,” Dr. Lips said.

To test the theory, Dr. Lips and her team plan to raise salamanders in incubators that mimic different climates.

Nikola Solic/Reuters

Bumblebees

Bumblebees and other pollinators are critical to global agriculture, but recent studies suggest that up to one-quarter of Europe’s bumblebee population may die out.

Researchers say that climate change is at least partly to blame, along with disease and loss of habitat.

Scientists estimate that pollinators indirectly contribute about $30 billion a year to the European economy.  “Pollinators are essential to our population,” said Jean-Christophe Vié, deputy director of the species program at the International Union for Conservation of Nature in Switzerland.

Felix Kaestle/European Pressphoto Agency

Roe Deer

Roe deer, a small, reddish-brown species that flourishes all over Europe, give birth when new plant growth provides ample nutritious food for the mother. But flowers are blooming earlier than they used to, and the deer are missing their meals.

Researchers tracked deer births from 1985 to 2011 in the Champagne region of northeastern France, where average spring temperatures have steadily increased and flowering time is coming gradually earlier. The study is online in PLOS Biology.

The deer time their fertility by light availability, not temperature. With earlier springs, they are now giving birth too late to take advantage of the best food.

Using data on 1,095 births, the scientists calculated that the mismatch between flowering time and birth over the period had grown by 36 days.

The researchers estimate that deer fitness declined by 6 percent over the period, and by 14 percent in 2007 and 2011, when flowering was particularly early.

“Roe deer are very dependent on large quantities of high quality food, and the critical stage is the first week’s supply,” said the lead author, Jean-Michel Gaillard, a director of research at the National Center for Scientific Research at the University of Lyon. “Unlike birds, for example, that can migrate and breed earlier, roe deer cannot.”

Marcelo Del Pozo/Reuters

Olives

In the Mediterranean Basin, small olive farms can support entire families. Olive trees are notoriously drought-resistant, and even in arid ecosystems they attract migratory birds and a host of insect species.

But as the region warms, some olive trees will not be as productive.

“In the south, you’re going to see a lower crop yield,” said Andrew Paul Gutierrez, an ecologist at the University of California, Berkeley. “In marginal areas, the farmers will just go out of business.”

Dr. Gutierrez and his colleagues predict that some local farmers ultimately will have to abandon their orchards, leaving barren swaths of desert where biodiversity once flourished.

Tom McHugh/Science Source

Lemmings

Contrary to myth, lemmings do not commit mass suicide. But populations do rise and fall in predictable cycles, to the benefit and detriment of predators like arctic foxes and migratory birds.

Recently, scientists noticed that some groups of lemmings have died off.

“The lemming cycle is the heartbeat of the terrestrial Arctic,” said Nicolas Lecomte, a biologist at the University of Moncton in Canada. “Now we’re seeing the collapse of the main prey of many terrestrial predators.”

Lemmings survive harsh winters by hiding in the snow. When warmer temperatures bring off-season rain, that snow turns to ice, and the lemmings cannot burrow.

Dr. Lecomte has found that as lemmings die off en masse, the fragile Arctic ecosystem is growing weaker.

Asit Kumar/Agence France-Presse – Getty Images

Wheat, Rice and Corn

If wheat, rice and corn are going to continue to feed the world, the crops will have to adapt to warmer temperatures. The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change offers some predictions.

The analysis, published last spring in Nature Climate Change, concluded that a 3.6 degree Fahrenheit increase in temperature will bring a significant decline in crop yields.

Most projections see a decrease from 2030 onward, with greater decreases in the 2040s and 2050s.

Selective breeding and changes in irrigation methods, pest control, fertilization and planting dates may compensate, partially, for the temperature change. But most of these adaptations will work better in temperate regions, while tropical crop yields will continue to decline.

Extreme weather events — another consequence of climate change — will affect yields year-to-year in ways that are difficult to forecast.

“There are two pieces of bad news here,” said the lead author of the I.P.C.C report, Andy J. Challinor, a professor of climate impact at the University of Leeds in England. “One is that average yields are going down. The other is that yields in any given year will be less reliable.”

Patrick Kerwin

Sharks

Sharks pursue their prey partly by odor, but rising carbon dioxide levels may severely impair their sense of smell.

Scientists used the smooth dogfish, a small shark, as an experimental animal. They created tanks in which some jets of water held the odor of squid, a favorite food, or no odor at all. The water in the tanks also contained varying levels of carbon dioxide.

With carbon dioxide levels resembling today’s, the sharks spent 60 percent of their time nosing about the plume with the squid odor. But in water with carbon dioxide concentrations predicted for the year 2100, the animals actively avoided the jet with the food odor, spending only 15 percent of their time there.

Any change in shark feeding habits might affect other species as well.

“There might be a decrease in hunting behavior among sharks, and an increase in prey animals as a result,” said a co-author, Ashley R. Jennings, a researcher at Boston University. “That’s assuming the prey animals aren’t being affected by CO₂ as well.”

Sue-Ann Watson

Conch Snails

As the oceans gather carbon, a small sea snail that lives in the Great Barrier Reef risks losing its famous ability to leap.

The conch snail jumps to escape from a predator, also a sea snail, that tries to inject it with a poisonous dart.

In laboratory experiments in water with increased carbon dioxide levels, the snails were 50 percent less likely to jump. And snails that did jump took nearly twice as long to do so.

The carbon dioxide and acidity disrupt a neurotransmitter receptor in the snail’s nervous system, one that other marine animals also rely on.

“They are very widespread,” said Sue-Ann Watson, a biologist at James Cook University in Australia. “It could affect many marine animals and their behaviors.”

Oceans today are 30 percent more acidic than they were 250 years ago, when the Industrial Revolution started. And it is getting worse.

“By the end of the century, if we carry on with business as usual, they will be 150 percent more acidic than they were 250 years ago,” Dr. Watson said.

Gifford Miller

Moss

As Arctic temperatures rise every summer, some of the ice on Canada’s Baffin Island melts, revealing the moss trapped underneath. Now, using radiocarbon dating, researchers have determined that until recently some of that moss hadn’t seen daylight in 44,000 years.

The melting ice not only gives scientists the chance to study ancient moss, but adds to evidence that climate change is caused by human activities, not Earth’s natural warming and cooling cycle, said Gifford H. Miller, a geologist at the University of Colorado.

“Cyclical warming is mostly related to the Earth’s irregular orbit around the sun,” he said. The Earth warms when it’s nearer the sun and cools when it’s farther away.

“For the past 10,000 years, we’ve been getting farther away,” he said. The exposure of such ancient moss suggests “the Arctic is now experiencing warmer summers than at any time since the end of the Ice Age.”

Science/Associated Press

Chickadees

Black-capped chickadees are commonly found in the Northeastern United States. Carolina chickadees make their home in the Southeast. Between them is a narrow zone in which both breeds reproduce in the spring.

As winter temperatures have risen over the past decade, the birds’ social scene has moved steadily northward. Today, it is about seven miles farther north than it was in 2004.

The reason? Carolina chickadees are trying to move north — like many other species dealing with climate change — and are running into the black-caps.

“As they start interacting with the black-caps, they try to hybridize,” said Robert L. Curry, a biologist at Villanova University who has studied the birds. But a high percentage of the hybrid eggs don’t hatch, he has found, and hybrid chickadees are probably less fertile.

This is unfortunate for both species in the short term, but it would be even worse for two species not accustomed to mixing.

“This is a model for what could happen if you had an introduced species moving into a new area because of climate change, then come in contact with a species it’s never met before,” Dr. Curry said.

David Inouye

Wildflowers

To everything there is a season — including, of course, the flowering of plants. But a warming climate is changing the timing in complicated ways.

Scientists reviewed 39 years of records of flowering plants in the Rocky Mountains in Colorado, a period in which each decade saw a 0.72 degree Fahrenheit increase in average summer temperatures and a 3.5-day earlier spring snow melt.

The resulting study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences last spring, found considerable variation in the changes in flowering, and a much larger number of species affected than previously believed.

Some form of flowering change occurred in 41 of 60 species examined. On average, first flowering advanced by 3.3 days per decade, peak flowering by 2.5 days, and final flowering by 1.5 days.

“The changes in the flower community are potentially reshuffling what’s available for the pollinators,” said a co-author, Amy M. Iler, a postdoctoral researcher at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory. “We don’t know what all the consequences will be. It’s likely it will be good for some and bad for others.”

Dr. Andrew Weeks

Fruit Flies

As temperatures rise, insect populations may relocate around the globe in search of more hospitable environments. But it is the extreme highs, not just the average rise in temperatures, that may determine where they end up.

Scientists studied 10 different fruit fly species in Australia (both temperate and tropical), noting the temperature ranges each preferred for mating and everyday life, and their thresholds for extreme hot and cold.

All the species lived in environments where temperatures were sometimes less than optimal, the researchers found, but none chose places that forced them to endure extreme heat.

“Many species might undergo seasons where conditions are not optimal for growth and reproduction,” said Johannes Overgaard, a biologist at Aarhus University in Denmark and an author of the study. “They just survive the season. But what they can’t survive is temperatures beyond their threshold.”

This is bad news for the insects in Australia, who might find themselves with fewer habitable lands as extreme conditions dominate the continent. Whether this will also hold true for other continents is not yet known, Dr. Overgaard said.

Kelly Shimoda for The New York Times

Rock Snot

An unsightly algae known as “rock snot” has been surfacing in lake waters in Eastern Canada.

“It looks like torn-up toilet paper that is attached to rocks,” said John Smol, a biologist at Queen’s University in Ontario who is studying the algae’s growth. “It’s an aesthetic issue, and as it decomposes it becomes a smell issue.”

Rock snot, or didymo, was thought of as an invasive species introduced by humans. But an analysis of fossilized algae in the lakes indicates that it is native.

The algae was present in one lake in Quebec since at least 1970, 36 years before it was first noticed, Dr. Smol’s team found.

Didymo tends to grow in flowing waters. Warmer winters may be producing less ice and snow that disrupt the flow.

Over time, the rock snot will become much more than an eyesore, Dr. Smol said. It will displace other organisms and destroy fish habitats.

F. Stuart Westmorland/Science Source

Coral Reefs

Ocean acidification endangers coral in every ocean. But researchers haverecently discovered unusual reefs in Palau that are thriving in increasingly acidicified waters.

Ocean acidification occurs when carbon emitted by human activities mixeswith ocean waters. This decreases carbonate ions in the water, which coral andother organisms need to form their protective shells.

Yet in 2012, researchers working in the waters off Palau identified coralreefs that were both extremely acidified and very healthy. What’s differentabout these reefs, said Kathryn Shamberger, anoceanographer at Texas A&M University, is that the waters became acidifiedthrough natural means.

“The growth of the reef itself and the breathing of the organisms onthe reef,” not man-made emissions, added carbon to the water, she said.

In a typical reef these products would be flushed out before they could havemuch effect. But the waters in Palau pool around its many small islands.

Might reefs suffering from man-made acidification survive as well as these?Dr. Shamberger and others are trying to figure thatout.

Eric Sanford

Shellfish

Increasing ocean acidity makes it difficult for marine species to build their shells and, by softening calcium carbonate, makes shells weaker. That’s bad news not only for clams, oysters and scallops, but for tens of thousands of lesser known species — echinoderms like star fish and sea urchins, colonies of tiny invertebrates, reef corals and many others.

In June, The Biological Bulletin devoted an issue to research on ocean calcification with papers and reviews on a large variety of organisms.

“Climate change and ocean acidification are going to manifest themselves in the ways species interact — eating each other, facilitating each other’s growth,” said an editor of the issue, Gretchen Hofmann, a marine biologist at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

And yet, she added, there is some hope. “In coastal areas there are plants that actually change the pH of the water — in a good way. Eel grass and surf grasses can provide refuge from future acidification.”

Sophie McCoy

Coral Algae

Coralline algae are the cement that binds many reefs together. By filling the gaps between corals with a hard outer shell, these algae fortify the reef and provide shelter for growing organisms.

To produce that shell, this special algae — much like oysters and snails — require a steady supply of carbonate. But as carbonate becomes harder and harder to come by in increasingly acid oceans, the once-dominant species of coralline algae can no longer grow shells as thick as they once were. Other species are moving in to claim more territory.

For now, it might not be so bad to give these competitors a chance, said Sophie McCoy, an ecologist with the Plymouth Marine Laboratory in England, who lead a study on the phenomenon when she was at the University of Chicago earlier this year.

“In the short term, I think it might be a good thing in terms of local biodiversity,” she said. In the long run, however, “all the species of this algae will start to be affected.”

That could mean less coral overall, and less habitat for the organisms that call it home.

Michael Francis McElroy for the New York Times

Invasive Species

Biological intruders, from California’s medflies to Florida’s Burmese pythons, cost the United States billions of dollars every year. Rising temperatures and changing weather patterns may make them even harder to control.

“Biology can be very complicated, especially when climate change comes in,” said Andrew Paul Gutierrez, an ecologist at the University of California, Berkeley. “That’s going to affect these species in unknown ways.”

In a book on the subject, Dr. Gutierrez notes one jarring possibility: that higher temperatures may invite still more invasive species into fragile ecosystems.

Jim Gathany/Center for Disease Control

Malaria

Historically, the highlands of Ethiopia offered protection from deadly, mosquito-borne malaria. But perhaps not for much longer.

The disease was mitigated at higher altitudes, where cooler temperatures kept mosquitoes in check. Now, malaria is spreading into higher elevations during warmer years, then back into lower altitudes when temperatures cool.

Looking at temperature records from the two regions, there is a clear link between the changing climate and higher rates of the disease, said Mercedes Pascual, an ecologist at the University of Michigan.

“The disease is seasonal,” she said. “But climate change here could make the problem much bigger.”

She and her colleagues found that a 1.8 degree Fahrenheit temperature increase could result in an additional three million malaria cases annually in Ethiopia among those under age 15.

A Future as Clouded as Their Past (New York Times)

Credit: Carl Wiens

We won’t ever know what the Anasazi were thinking on the eve of the 13th century when they abandoned the cities they had worked so long to build on the Colorado Plateau. The reasons had something to do with climate — a great drought and, perhaps on top of that, a mini ice age. If that wasn’t enough to defeat a thriving culture, there was the turmoil that came from just not knowing. Why were the sky and earth behaving so strangely? Why wasn’t the old magic working anymore?

The rains were not just sparser. They were no longer coming when they were supposed to — when the seedlings were in the ground waiting for water. Cooler temperatures were putting an earlier end to the growing season. Fields had been overplanted, forests stripped of wood. Crops were failing as people reverted from agriculture to hunting and gathering and fighting violently over food.

Chaco Canyon and Mesa Verde — these grand stone settlements fell silent, repurposed centuries later as national parks and monuments, memorials to the repercussions of ancient climate change.

There are many theories seeking to explain the abandonment, abstracted from faint clues in old rocks and bones and in the patterns of tree rings and pollen deposition. By some measures, there was enough water, just barely, for the Anasazi settlements to hang on. And there is evidence that they had survived drier times. A more complex story has emerged as archaeologists try to infer what they can from changes in architectural styles and pottery design — hints perhaps of a people trying out new rituals, new ways to entreat suddenly indifferent gods.

Something was happening — a slow horror, perhaps so slow that it didn’t feel like a horror, until the Anasazi’s culture began to unwind. Did their leaders engage at first in denial and then quiet deliberation? When that failed, did communities split into factions with the conservatives insisting on standing their ground — clinging to the old ways and waiting for the rains to return — and the liberals pushing for new approaches? Did a visionary arise? Some Moses leading a migration? Or three Moseses leading migrations in different directions?

One way or the other, the Anasazi disintegrated, the people moving southward. Their descendants are believed to live now in the pueblos of New Mexico and Arizona, perched on mesa tops and hugging the banks of the Rio Grande.

In modern times, many of these pueblos divide themselves, for reasons they keep from the anthropologists, into kinship groups called summer and winter people or squash and turquoise people. Could these divisions be imprints left from that 13th-century upheaval?

It is frustrating how little is known. Compared with the Byzantines, the Normans, or the Mongols, the Anasazi left such faint traces, like ripples from the radiation of their own Big Bang. They have an oral history but it is mostly secret. And there is only so much that can be derived from mythology. The closest we have to records are the crude rock etchings called petroglyphs. Were these symbols in a rudimentary language or just doodling?

Our own deliberations — imprinted onto electromagnetic waves — have been pulsing outward from Earth since the first radio news shows in the 1920s and 30s, interspersed with the “Grand Ole Opry” and the “Amos ’n’ Andy” show.

By now broadcasts about greenhouses gases, melting ice caps and rising sea levels are rippling far beyond Alpha Centauri, along with the carefully calculated outrage of Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck. As the waves travel farther, they converge asymptotically toward a vanishing point. Even at their strongest they might seem as esoteric to curious aliens as Anasazi rock art.

Our later emanations, if they are ever understood, might tell of great feats of geoengineering: swarms of orbiting mirrors to bounce back sunlight, oceans fertilized to create carbon-absorbing algae blooms.

The Anasazi had to make do with simpler technology — water catchment basins, irrigation channels. But when all else failed at least they had somewhere to go.

Stuck here on Earth, do we embrace the Anthropocene — this new geological epoch in which the human race has become its own force of nature? Or do we hunker down for the sixth extinction? Faced with the dilemma, we cleave as naturally as a crystal into factions, like the squash people and the pumpkin people.

Diane Ackerman is one of the latest to join the environmental optimists, who believe that the same kind of technological prowess that got us into this mess will help us adapt to it, in ways we can only begin to imagine. (Her new book, “The Human Age: The World Shaped by Us” is reviewed on Page 5.)

With her following, Ms. Ackerman may become the counterpart to Bill McKibben, the environmentalist whose book “Eaarth” (he changed the name of the planet since we have irremediably transformed the place) called for a return to simpler times with backyard farms instead of lawns and decentralized green energy. The Anasazi with solar panels on the roof.

Finally there is the 25 percent of Americans (“cool skeptics,” as a Gallup poll called them) who don’t believe the keepers of the models — the interpreters of the signs. As we flail we are generating so much data that future archaeologists, if they exist, may be overwhelmed — the opposite problem presented by the Anasazi.

More than 700 years after their fall, we have the knowledge to tell us what is going wrong this time with the atmosphere. But that has made it no easier to agree on a plan. Science can only lay the case out on the table. For all our supercomputers and climatological models, what happens next will come down to something unpredictable: the meteorology of the human mind.

Forecasts: Hopes and Fears About Climate Change (New York Times)

A few of the leaders, writers and scientists who offered their thoughts on climate change. From left: Tenzin Gyatso, Margaret Atwood, Neil deGrasse Tyson and Marlene Moses.CreditFrom left: Daniel Bockwoldt/European Pressphoto Agency; Stan Honda/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images; Mark Blinch/Reuters

Two dozen scientists, authors, and world and national figures answered two questions: What is your greatest worry about climate change? What gives you hope? Here are some of their answers, condensed for space.

JANE LUBCHENCO, Former administrator, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

I worry about oceans becoming more corrosive, decimating both fisheries and coral reefs. Oceans have already become 30 percent more acidic since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution; if business-as-usual carbon emissions continue, oceans are likely to be 150 percent more acidic by the end of this century. Yikes!

I take heart in knowing that social change can happen very rapidly once a tipping point is reached, that young people are bringing new passion and creativity to the issue, and that climate change is being seen increasingly as the moral issue it is.

TENZIN GYATSO, 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet

The worst possible aspect of climate change is that it will be irreversible and irrevocable. Therefore, there is the urgency to do whatever we can to protect the environment while we can.

When I was young, even I did not really think about the environment, nor did I hear much about it from others. Today, more and more people are trying to take action. We are beginning to look at this planet as our only home, and I am hopeful that this will lead to the generation of a genuine sense of universal responsibility. We can do this.

MICHAEL R. BLOOMBERG, Former mayor of New York City and special United Nations envoy for cities and climate change

Something like 90 percent of the world’s cities are on coasts, and in most places, the most vulnerable people in those cities will feel the worst impacts. We have a responsibility to do something about that. We can’t afford to sit back, cross our fingers and hope for the best.

A tremendous amount of progress is being made by cities all around the world. Cities account for some 70 percent of the emissions that cause climate change, so together they can make a big difference. In New York City back in 2007, we set a goal of reducing our carbon footprint 30 percent by 2030, and we got to a 19 percent reduction in just six years.

Mayors have powers they can use to address climate change immediately. They have control over many of the things that create emissions — like transportation and buildings — and they can invest in infrastructure. They’re not interested in turning the issue into a big political fight. They’re the ones most directly responsible for people’s safety and welfare — and they recognize the dangers of inaction.

JEFFREY SACHS, Director, Earth Institute of Columbia University

The oil industry has lobbied Washington to a state of paralysis, and as is so often true, greed is at the root of the crisis, with the politicians getting in line to feed at the oil trough. The climate deniers are not the real problem. Their transparent propaganda and misdirections are laughable; their scientific ignorance is impossible to miss. The real problem is the cowardice and greed of those who absolutely know better, both in government and industry.

We are living in an age of technological breakthroughs that could transform the world economy to a low-carbon energy system by midcentury. Solar, wind, geothermal, carbon sequestration, safe nuclear energy, and energy efficiency are all part of the mix. The oil industry should cooperate, rather than faking it or dodging it as until now.

BARBARA KINGSOLVER, Novelist; author of the memoir “Animal, Vegetable, Miracle

My fear: Catastrophic extinction. We don’t get to make natural laws. Natural law made us, and it ultimately will unmake us. What makes me very sad is that we’re going to take so many species down with us.

My hope: We in the United States finally seem to be coming to the table after decades of either denial or argument. It seems as if denial as a political strategy has run its course and that we are stepping up to our responsibilities. I hope that’s true.

ALAN I. LESHNER, Chief executive, American Association for the Advancement of Science

Ideology and intuition sometimes appear to be trumping science. So people deny the evidence even as it increases. I fear that the pace at which the public understands that the climate is changing, and puts pressure on the political system, will be too slow.

We are seeing that communicating scientific knowledge has had an effect, and that makes me happy! The deniers have less and less credibility as the public understands the scientific consensus more and more.

NEIL DeGRASSE TYSON, Director, Hayden Planetarium

I find that to worry about things is to invest emotional energy in ways that do not lead to change. Always better to do something about a problem than to worry about it.

What I expect will happen in the coming decades is that beachfront real estate, some of the most expensive in the housing marketplace, will become overrun by storm surges with enough frequency that it will force the wealthiest class (who might have previously been in denial of the phenomenon) to recognize the problem and take action, actions they can take since they are typically captains of industry and are in power and in control.

JERRY BROWN, Governor of California

A huge challenge of climate change lies in the fact that for its solution, countries all over the world must collaborate in ways that are entirely unprecedented.

Each nation-state has to be fully engaged and take decisive steps outside the conventional economic comfort zone. And that requires more statesmanship that is currently in evidence in any of those countries. The mythology of the market and economistic view of life has to be transcended so people understand that a decent and sustainable quality of life requires a very different philosophy than the one that governs contemporary societies.

Here in California, we’re leading the nation in the economic recovery and the creation of jobs, and we are pioneering climate change strategies across a broad front. We have a robust cap-and-trade system. We have a goal of one-third renewable energy in the electricity sector; we’re already at 22 percent. We have the strictest building standards in the world. We have a goal of over a million electric vehicles; we’ve got our first 100,000! We have a certain momentum in California. There are other states where this is also true.

JAMES E. HANSEN, Climate scientist, emeritus director at NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

The reason it’s a really dangerous situation is that the climate system does not respond quickly to the forces we apply to it. That means that we have not witnessed the impact of the gases we’ve already added to the atmosphere. We’re waiting for the public to see enough to demand effective government response.

The public doesn’t see that much yet, but there’s more in the pipeline. We are pumping energy into the ocean at a rapid rate; that energy is accumulating, and its biggest impact is going to be on ice shelves. The sea level will go up many meters. That means all coastal cities will be doomed if we stay on fossil fuel business as usual.

The upside is that the only policy that will work is making the price of fossil fuels match their cost. We have an organization determined to focus on exactly that issue: the Citizens Climate Lobby. It’s growing rapidly. Things are changing. But not fast enough.

MARIO J. MOLINA, Co-recipient of the 1995 Nobel Prize for his research on the chemistry of the ozone layer

What worries me most is the irrationality of certain interest groups preventing society from addressing the problem. Republicans in Congress are preventing action on an efficient solution such as a carbon tax.

There is a solution at hand. It doesn’t cost as much as the deniers claim. The Montreal Protocol [on ozone depletion] showed that you could solve such global problems. It would have been much more expensive not to solve it.

ELIZABETH KOLBERT, Author of “The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History

For the last 10,000 years or so, the climate’s been relatively stable. But if you start imagining a world with a constantly changing climate, one where, say, rainfall patterns shift dramatically every few decades, then you begin to realize how dependent we all are on that stability. And the world we’re creating is that constantly changing one.

So I worry about just about everything, starting with the basics. There are 7.2 billion people on the planet right now, and we all need to eat.

Hopefulness or a lack of it is really not the issue here. We’ve already caused a lot of damage; there’s a lot of warming that’s in effect baked into the system. We’re capable of causing a great deal more damage, and we’re also capable of limiting that damage. That’s the choice at this point, and we need to face up to that.

J. MARSHALL SHEPHERD, Former president, American Meteorological Society

It bothers me that people think there’s a big debate in science when there isn’t. Being concerned about climate change is not some whim. When I go to the mall or to Walmart, people ask, “Do you really believe in climate change?” That’s like asking, “Do you believe in gravity?” I mean, the science is clear.

What gives me optimism is that many of the people who question the science are of an older generation. The kids get it. When I go to my children’s Scout meetings or when I talk to students on campus, they get beyond the misinformation and politics.

THE REV. MITCHELL C. HESCOX, President, Evangelical Environmental Network

Climate change is the greatest moral challenge of our time because it impacts every single soul in the world. In the conservative Christian world in the United States, we’ve gotten caught up in political partisanship. I’d like to see climate change as a Christian issue and not a partisan issue.

We are the stewards of God’s creation. We believe that the earth’s creation belongs to God and that we are charged to care for it.

When we started this [network] five years ago, we had 15,000 people we regularly communicated with on this issue. Today it approaches 400,000. It means that we’re starting to overcome the partisan divide and the tide is slowly turning.

DIANA H. WALL, Director, School of Global Environmental Sustainability, Colorado State University

What keeps me up, the thing that really drives me nuts, is that the rate of change is so fast. I work in one of the most extreme ecosystems on Earth: the Antarctic Dry Valleys. It is the coldest, windiest, driest place on Earth. We’re seeing warming events and very sunny events there, and this is causing a change in the organisms I study. These species have adapted to the conditions there. We don’t know what the impact will be on them or us.

My students give me hope.

MARTIN REES, Astrophysicist, University of Cambridge

I have a lot more fears than hopes. One aspect that particularly troubles me is that economists tend to underprioritize efforts at mitigation of atmospheric carbon, because the really serious downside of inaction won’t be experienced until the 22nd century and beyond. If action is delayed, it may then be too late to avoid irreversible runaway changes.

We shouldn’t discriminate against our fellow humans on grounds of date of birth. The lifetime welfare of the newborn should rate as highly as that of the already middle-aged. Indeed, many philosophers would assign equal value to the rights of those not yet born.

For them, foreclosing the potentialities of all future generations would be so catastrophic that we should strive to reduce even the tiniest probability that this could happen.

CHRISTINE TODD WHITMAN, Former governor of New Jersey and former administrator, Environmental Protection Agency

What keeps me up at night are people who talk in absolutes. It’s the people who say “humans cause it” or “people have no role in it,” full stop. Science is not exact and the truth is in between. By taking the extreme position, they give an opening to the other side, and then people stop listening.

What gives me hope is that there are signs that the American people are beginning to relate some of the frequent weather extremes to climate.

Since 1980 our economy has grown, our population has grown and our energy use has grown, and yet our overall pollution has gone down. We are perfectly capable of implementing environmental regulation without stopping economic growth.

KATHARINE HAYHOE, Director, Climate Science Center, Texas Tech University

What troubles me as a scientist is the potential for vicious feedbacks within the climate system. The warming that we cause through all the carbon we produce could cause a series of cascading impacts that could lead to a much greater warming. The more carbon we produce, the higher the likelihood of these unpredictable risks.

What makes me hopeful are people. I’ve been working with cities, states and regional transportation councils, and none of them have to be convinced of the reality of this problem. I was sitting next to an assistant city manager for Dallas, a town not known for being green, and she blew me away with her list of amazing things Dallas has done to save energy. People are preparing for change.

MARGARET ATWOOD, Poet and novelist, author of “The Year of the Flood

The most worrisome thing is the potential death of the ocean. If it dies, we die.

What gives me hope is that more and more people are aware of the dangers we face, and many smart people are at work on solutions. Our smart brains got us into this. Let’s see if they can get us out.

FREEMAN J. DYSON, Theoretical physicist, Institute for Advanced Study

What worries me is that many people, including scientists and politicians, believe a whole lot of dogmatic nonsense about climate change. The nonsense says that climate change is a terrible danger and that it is something we could do something about if we wanted to. The whole point is to scare people, and this has been done very successfully.

Climate has always been changing, and climate has always been lousy. It has always been a background to existence that on the whole we’ve learned to cope with pretty well. What I feel happy about is that there are a lot of ordinary people with common sense who don’t believe the nonsense.

MARLENE MOSES, Nauru’s ambassador to the United Nations, chairwoman of the Alliance of Small Island States

When I go home and look at the deteriorating situation there — increased droughts, the ocean washing away the coast — I can’t help but be fearful for what the future may hold for Nauru’s children and grandchildren. How will they adapt? Will the international community be there for them? These are most distressing questions to which I don’t yet have answers.

GLORIA STEINEM, Co-founder and former editor, Ms. Magazine

Thinking about climate change used to give me images of the sun burning down and icebergs melting — horrific, but also impersonal and far away. Now I have intimate fears of storms and floods that drive us off this island of Manhattan, and fires that send thousands fleeing — in other words, just an acceleration of what we’re already seeing.

Like millions of others in public opinion polls, I’m willing to lower my standard of living to help create a turning point. We’re waiting for a practical, coordinated, understandable set of instructions that counters the Kochs, the deniers, the profiteers. Meanwhile, we try to do whatever we can.

Somehow, I find comfort in the idea that the earth is a living organism with a will of its own. The global women’s movement gives me hope because women are trying to take control of their own bodies and reproduction, which is even more basic than production. Everything we know says that when women can decide whether and when to have children, growth slows down to a little over replacement level. And that would be the single biggest long-term relief for the environment.

MARY ROBINSON, Former president of Ireland, former United Nations High Commissioner for human rights

I’m a grandmother with five grandchildren. What will they say about what we did or didn’t do?

It’s Not Genghis Khan’s Mongolia (New York Times)

Ayush Ish in her home with her son and grandson in the Gobi Desert in Mongolia. Extreme winter events killed off her livestock twice. CreditRachel Nuwer

ULAN BATOR, Mongolia — For all of his victories and skills, Genghis Khan always insisted that the god Tengri — the Eternal Blue Sky — deserved the credit for his triumphant success in uniting the vast Mongol Empire in the early 13th century.

Now 21st-century science may be proving him right. Not long ago, researchers studying ancient tree rings found evidence that the Great Khan rose to power during an exceptionally mild 15-year stretch.

Back-to-back years of plentiful rain and favorable temperatures — known as pluvials, the opposite of droughts — promoted vegetation growth, the researchers believe, and that in turn supported the livestock needed to power an army.

“The Mongol Empire pluvial was quite exceptional in its duration,” said Neil Pederson, an ecologist at Harvard Forest in central Massachusetts. “It was the only one in the past 1,000 years that lasted more than 10 years, so it’s really a singular event.”

These days, Mongolia’s climatic tides have been shifting toward another extreme. A 10-year drought and heat wave from 2000 to 2010, according to the tree ring data, was the most severe the country had had in a millennium.

“I’m more and more convinced that the only way we can understand this 21st-century event is within the context of climate change,” said Amy Hessl, a geographer at West Virginia University. “And the human side of that — combined with a constellation of other factors — is going to be incredible.”

Today, Mongolia is largely herders, not warriors. Sandwiched between Russia and China, it has almost three million people in a vast tract of desert and rolling steppe grassland, punctuated by mountains and forests. Climate continues to significantly shape the lives of Genghis Khan’s descendants, around one-third of whom still practice the seminomadic herding of their ancestors, moving their house — traditionally, a dome-shaped tent called a ger — with the seasons.

While televisions and solar panels are a common sight in modern gers, herders still rely on thousands of years of collective knowledge to thrive in the harsh Mongolian environment, where the temperature regularly dips below minus 15 degrees Fahrenheit in winter. Yet the predictable ebb and flow of warmth and cold, rain and snow, has begun to falter in recent years.

“I don’t know why the weather has become unusual, but I’m very worried about it,” said Urgamaltsetsg Suvita, 47, a herder in the Gobi Desert. Summer is hotter and drier and plagued by sandstorms, she said, and winter brings too much snow or too little.

In 2010, an extreme snowstorm killed her flock of livestock — nearly 1,000 animals, including horses, sheep and goats. “Winter is no longer winter,” she said.

Like much of the world, Mongolia is already experiencing the effects of climate change. The country’s average annual temperature has risen more than 3.8 degrees Fahrenheit since 1940; paradoxically, winter months have grown colder over the past 20 years. Streams and lakes have begun to dry up, and fires frequently blaze across millions of acres of steppe and forest.

“The steppe ecosystem is burning and burning and burning,” said Oyunsanaa Byambasuren, a lecturer in forestry at the National University of Mongolia. “But we really don’t have enough specialists or professionals dealing with those issues.”

Dzuds — extreme winter events that cause mass livestock die-offs — also seem to be increasing in frequency and intensity. From 1999 to 2002, a succession of winter dzuds followed by summer droughts killed 30 percentof all livestock in Mongolia, and a 2010 dzud claimed 8.8 million livestock — losses equivalent to 4.4 percent of the country’s economic output.

“Wealth in much of Mongolia is measured in animals,” said Nicole Davi, a research scientist at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and at William Paterson University. “If you lose all of your animals, you lose everything.”

Ayush Ish, 69, has lived in the Gobi Desert all her life. She and her husband lost their flock of goats and sheep in the 2002 dzud and drought, then slowly rebuilt it with the help of 50 animals allocated by the government. But when the 2010 dzud struck, all but 20 died. Around the same time, her husband died as well.

“I don’t know if it will happen again,” she said, tears running down her cheeks. “I can only hope that we’re entering a good period now.”

Like many rural Mongolians who follow a shamanistic belief system, Ms. Ish says that mining — which has recently become widespread around the country — is to blame for the changing weather patterns. Troy Sternberg, a geographer at the University of Oxford, said that “under the Mongolian belief system, the earth and sky are connected, so if you take gold out of the ground, you’re disrupting the natural rhythms of weather and climate.”

Whether or not that is true, the rise of mining — along with overgrazing by herders chasing the cashmere market — has led to wide desertification. Some studies indicate that 70 percent of Mongolia’s grasslands are degraded.

Taken together, these patterns bode ominously for the herders’ way of life. A team of Mongolian and international experts warned in a 2009 report that such trends “may lead to the end of the Mongolian traditional way of animal husbandry as we know it, that at onetime was the very core of the entire nomadic civilization.”

Some herders have already reached that breaking point. After the 1999 to 2002 dzuds alone, 180,000 people moved to the capital, Ulan Bator, in search of a better life. “The movement from a rural, agrarian life to an urban industrial one is not necessarily a bad thing if people are interested in doing other things that are tied to a more diverse economy,” said Maria Fernandez-Gimenez, an ecologist at Colorado State University. “But opportunities and services have to exist to enable that.”

Those who reach the capital usually settle in the ger district, a sprawling, makeshift neighborhood that encircles the city and creeps into the surrounding valleys. Although the skyscrapers of downtown are in eyesight, basic services are luxuries. Families must trek up to a mile to collect water from communal wells, and in winter, they burn coal and garbage to keep warm, helping to make Ulan Bator one of the world’s most polluted cities.

Khishigee Shuurai, 36, moved from western Mongolia to the capital around 15 years ago. In 2002, after losing their flock, her parents joined her in the city. Then her father died of a heart attack. Before that, she said, he frequently expressed a longing to return to the countryside.

For many, however, life here is preferable to the uncertainty and harshness of nomadic herding. Ms. Shuurai, a school custodian and mother of four, does not share her father’s regrets.

She and her husband, a construction worker, have jobs, and they recently got electricity in their ger. Her 7-year-old daughter was honored as the top student in her class, and her 12-year-old son wants to become an engineer.

“There’s many reasons to stay,” she said. “I don’t want to go back.”

5 razões para assistir à Cúpula do Clima de Nova York (Portal do Meio Ambiente)

PUBLICADO 18 SETEMBRO 2014

9393

por Jennifer Morgan*

No próximo dia 23 de setembro, chefes de estado e líderes do sistema financeiro, de empresas e da sociedade civil se reunirão em Nova York na Cúpula do Clima das Nações Unidas de 2014. A reunião será um marco importante no caminho de enfrentamento da crise climática. O Secretário-geral da ONU, Ban Ki-moon, convocou a Cúpula de alto nível para reengajar os líderes mundiais e estimular a ação pelo clima nos níveis nacionais e internacional.

Dezenas de milhares de cidadãos interessados estão aproveitando a oportunidade para organizar a maior marcha pelo clima da história. Durante a semana da Cúpula centenas de organizações organizarão palestras, exibições de cinema documental e outros encontros para apresentar evidências esmagadoras das consequências das alterações climáticas e soluções custo-efetivas para resolver o problema. Novos estudos científicos como a Avaliação Nacional do Clima dos EUA e os últimos relatórios do IPCC iluminaram os riscos de poluição da atmosfera pelo carbono, enquanto novas análises econômicas, incluindo próximo relatório Nova Economia do Clima, do World Resources Institute, devem dissipar a noção de que a ação pelo clima desacelerará o crescimento econômico.

No entanto, esta não é a primeira vez que os governos são convocados para combater as mudanças climáticas. Então, por que vale a pena assistir a esta Cúpula? Aqui estão os porquês:

1) É a primeira vez em cinco anos na qual chefes de estado se reunirão para enfrentar a mudança climática

Esta será a primeira vez em cinco anos – desde as negociações de Copenhague de 2009 – que tantos líderes mundiais se reunirão para discutir a mudança climática. O Secretário-Geral Ban Ki-moon chamou a Cúpula para dar o pontapé inicial de um período de 15 meses de intenso engajamento e negociação pelo clima como tentativa de obter um acordo global em dezembro de 2015. Criar uma boa dinâmica em Nova York será extremamente importante para alcançar esse objetivo.

2) Obama e Xi estarão lá**

Tanto o presidente dos EUA, Barack Obama quanto o presidente chinês, Xi Jinping, líderes dos dois países que mais emitem gases de efeito estufa, participarão da cúpula. Se medidas substantivas de redução das emissões devem ser implantadas, tanto os EUA quanto a China deverão se envolver completamente. É encorajador que os dois países já estejam colaborando em projetos de energia limpa nos níveis de pesquisa, de governo e empresarial por meio de iniciativas como os Centro de Pesquisa de Energia Limpa EUA-China (CERC). Em julho os dois países revelaram oito novos acordos de parceria climática. A presença desses chefes de estado na Cúpula oferece uma oportunidade de continuidade da cooperação.

3) Novas vozes que clamam por maior ação

A maioria dos atuais líderes ainda não estava no poder em 2009, quando da Cúpula de Copenhague. Muitos destes falam abertamente sobre a ameaça que a mudança climática representa para seus países, bem como sobre as oportunidades econômicas que se abrem com a perspectiva de economia de baixo carbono. Estas novas vozes vêm de países de renda média como Chile, Colômbia, Costa Rica e Indonésia onde os governos estão implantando políticas climáticas ambiciosas ou manifestam vontade de fazê-lo. Suas novas visões devem moldar as discussões da cúpula de alto nível.

Também se espera que os países mais pobres apresentem seus desafios e suas contribuições para a solução do problema.

4) Novos compromissos de países, cidades e do setor privado

A Cúpula de um dia será um fórum para a troca de iniciativas entre os países. Durante a manhã acontecerão três sessões simultâneas nas quais os países devem anunciar suas medidas de combate às mudanças climáticas. Os anúncios provavelmente variarão de compromissos de capitalização do Fundo Verde para o Clima, como a contribuição de US$ 1 bilhão feita recentemente pela Alemanha como ajuda aos demais países para sua preparação para os impactos do clima e busca de caminhos de baixo carbono, até ações internas como de alteração de matrizes energéticas desde o carvão às energias renováveis de grande escala.

Os líderes mundiais também podem usar a reunião para se comprometerem a apresentar um rascunho de seus planos climáticos pós-2020 até o mês de março de 2015 (processo conhecido no jargão das negociações como “contribuições intencionais nacionais determinadas” ou INDCs na sigla em inglês) – de modo a incentivar seus colegas a também fazê-lo. O respeito a esse prazo dará aos ‘stakeholders’ nacionais e internacionais a oportunidade de responder e sugerir melhorias antes dos países apresentarem suas propostas definitivas nove meses depois, em Paris.

Finalmente, o encontro oferece uma plataforma para a apresentação de novas e significativas ideias pelos líderes do setor privado e das cidades. Prepare-se para conhecer novos esforços privados e/ou públicos em matéria de energia, cidades de baixo carbono, restauração florestal, transporte, agricultura, finanças e resiliência. Estas novas iniciativas complementarão as ações nacionais envolvendo todos os níveis da sociedade no esforço global para o enfrentamento do problema.

5) A transição global para a energia limpa está remodelando a paisagem da política

A rápida adoção de energias renováveis nos últimos anos mudou o que era considerado viável há apenas cinco anos. Os custos de produção da energia solar caíram 80% e a energia eólica nunca foi tão acessível. Em outubro passado, a Dinamarca produziu mais energia a partir dos ventos do que o total consumido pelo país. A China estabeleceu metas agressivas para energias renováveis para os anos de 2015, 2017 e 2020. Mais e mais empresas elétricas norte americanas estão descobrindo que o vento e o Sol oferecem a forma mais barata para adicionar capacidade de geração adicional. E cerca de 100 países em desenvolvimento têm agora estabelecidas políticas para energia renováveis. O panorama energético em mudança e os fortes benefícios sociais e econômicos da transição para a energia limpa dão argumentos fortes aos líderes dos países e das empresas pela liderança climática.

Uma chance para que os líderes mundiais se comprometam pela ação climática

A Cúpula será um prenúncio para o compromisso dos chefes de estado quanto ao enfrentamento da crise climática no período que leva a Paris e além. Fortes e claros compromissos elevariam a mudança climática na agenda global e preparariam o terreno para o progresso nacional e internacional.

Durante uma reunião de alto nível em Abu Dhabi em maio deste ano, Ban Ki-moon exortou os participantes a “capacitar e motivar os seus líderes nacionais para que tragam anúncios ousados à Cúpula do Clima de setembro… A corrida começou. É hora de liderar”. Em poucas semanas veremos se os líderes estão à altura do desafio.


* Artigo publicado em no dia 5 de setembro passado em http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/09/5-reasons-watch-nyc-climate-summit e traduzido por Délcio Rodrigues.

**Nota do editor: Depois da publicação deste post soubemos que o presidente chinês Xi Jinping não deve participar da Cúpula do Clima da ONU em Nova York. É esperado que o presidente Xi envie um outro político sênior em seu lugar.

The ‘Wall Street Journal’ Parade of Climate Lies (Huff Post)

Posted: 09/06/2014 8:21 am EDT Updated: 09/07/2014 10:59 pm EDT

RUPERT MURDOCH

That Rupert Murdoch governs over a criminal media empire has been made clear enough in the UK courts in recent years. That the Wall Street Journal op-ed pages, the latest victim of Murdoch’s lawless greed, are little more than naked propaganda is perhaps less appreciated. The Journal runs one absurd op-ed after another purporting to unmask climate change science, but only succeeds in unmasking the crudeness and ignorance of Murdoch’s henchmen. Yesterday’s (September 5) op-edby Matt Ridley is a case in point.

Ridley’s “smoking gun” is a paper last week in Science Magazine by two scientists Xianyao Chen and Ka-Kit Tung, which Ridley somehow believes refutes all previous climate science. Ridley quotes a sentence fragment from the press release suggesting that roughly half of the global warming in the last three decades of the past century (1970-2000) was due to global warming and half to a natural Atlantic Ocean cycle. He then states that “the man-made warming of the past 20 years has been so feeble that a shifting current in one ocean was enough to wipe it out altogether,” and “That to put the icing on the case of good news, Xianyao Chen and Ka-Kit Tung think the Atlantic Ocean may continue to prevent any warming for the next two decades.”

The Wall Street Journal editors don’t give a hoot about the nonsense they publish if it serves their cause of fighting measures to limit human-induced climate change. If they had simply gone online to read the actual paper, they would have found that the paper’s conclusions are the very opposite of Ridley’s.

First, the paper makes perfectly clear that the Earth is warming in line with standard climate science, and that the Earth’s warming is unabated in recent years. In the scientific lingo of the paper (it’s very first line, so Ridley didn’t have far to read!), “Increasing anthropogenic greenhouse-gas-emissions perturb Earth’s radiative equilibrium, leading to a persistent imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) despite some long-wave radiative adjustment.” In short, we humans are filling the atmosphere with carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel use, and we are warming the planet.

Second, the total warming is distributed between the land and ocean surface on the one hand and the ocean deep water on the other. The total rise of ocean heat content has continued unabated, while the proportion of heat absorbed at the surface and in the deeper ocean varies over time. Again, in the scientific lingo of the paper, “[T]his forced total OHC [ocean heat content] should be increasing monotonically over longer periods even through the current period of slowed warming. In fact, that expectation is verified by observation …”. In other words, the ocean has continued to warm in line with predictions of just such a phenomenon seen in climate models.

Third, it is the “vertical distribution” of the warming, between the surface and deep water, which affects the warming observed on land and at the sea surface. The point of the paper is that the allocation of the warming vertically varies over time, sometimes warming the surface rapidly, other times warming the deeper ocean to a great extent and the surface water less rapidly. According to the paper, the period of the late 20th century was a period in which the surface was warmed relative to the deeper ocean. The period since 2000 is the opposite, with more warming of the deeper ocean. How do the scientists know? They measure the ocean temperature at varying depths with a sophisticated system of “Argo profiling floats,” which periodically dive into the ocean depths to take temperature readings and resurface to transmit them to the data centers.

So, what is Ridley’s “smoking gun” when you strip away his absurd version of the paper? It goes like this. The Earth is continuing to warm just as greenhouse gas theory holds. The warming heats the land and the ocean. The ocean distributes some of the warming to the surface waters and some to the deeper waters, depending on the complex circulation of ocean waters. The shares of warming of the surface and deeper ocean vary over time, in fluctuations that can last a few years or a few decades.

If the surface warming is somewhat less in recent years than in the last part of the 20th century, is that reason for complacency? Hardly. The warming is continuing, and the consequences of our current trajectory will be devastating unless greenhouse gas emissions (mainly carbon dioxide) are stopped during this century. As Chen and Tung conclude in their Science paper, “When the internal variability [of the ocean] that is responsible for the current hiatus [in warming] switches sign, as it inevitably will, another episode of accelerated global warming should ensue.”

Mr. Murdoch, and the Wall Street Journal, can it be any clearer than this?

*   *   *

The Wall Street Journal downplays global warming risks once again (The Guardian)

Monday 22 September 2014 14.00 BST

The periodical follows the Murdoch media pattern of sowing doubt about climate change threats

A photograph of the front page of the edition of the Wall Street Journal reporting on Rupert Murdoch's News Corp purchase of Dow Jones & Co.

A photograph of the front page of the edition of the Wall Street Journal reporting on Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp purchase of Dow Jones & Co. Photograph: Mike Segar/Reuters

As has become the norm for media outlets owned by Rupert Murdoch, just before a half million people participated in the People’s Climate Marcharound the world, The Wall Street Journal published an opinion piece downplaying the risks and threats posed by human-caused global warming. The editorial was written by Steven Koonin, a respected computational physicist who claims to have engaged in “Detailed technical discussions during the past year with leading climate scientists,” but who is himself not a climate scientist.

Koonin did admit that the climate is changing and humans are largely responsible, and noted,

There is well-justified prudence in accelerating the development of low-emissions technologies and in cost-effective energy-efficiency measures.

This is a step in the right direction. Unfortunately, Koonin’s editorial focused almost exclusively on the remaining uncertainties in climate science. Ironically, he stated,

Any serious discussion of the changing climate must begin by acknowledging not only the scientific certainties but also the uncertainties, especially in projecting the future.

But Koonin himself got the certainties wrong. For example, we know that humans are the main cause of the current climate change, responsible for about 100% of the global warming since 1950. However, Koonin’s editorial claimed,

The impact today of human activity appears to be comparable to the intrinsic, natural variability of the climate system itself.

This is simply incorrect. As climate scientist Michael Mann told Climate Science Watch in their thorough response to Koonin’s piece,

The fact is that the actual peer-reviewed scientific research shows that (a) the rate of warming over the past century is unprecedented as far back as the 20,000 years paleoclimate scientists are able to extend the record and (b) that warming can ONLY be explained by human influences.

Indeed, it is the RATE of warming that presents such risk to human civilization and our environment.

Climate scientists Michael Oppenheimer and Kevin Trenberth also took issue with Koonin’s assertion about the impact of human activity, saying,

Warming is well beyond natural climate variability and projected rates of change are potentially faster than ecosystems, farmers and societies can adapt to without major disruptions. Many details remain to be settled, and weather and natural variability will always mask some effects, especially regionally. But economic analysis of these risks supports substantial action beyond “no regrets” strategies. To argue otherwise as Koonin does is to ignore decades of research results.

Koonin primarily focused on the uncertainty in the specific impacts of continued rapid global warming. However, he glossed over the fact that those uncertainties range from generally bad impacts to potentially catastrophic impacts. Even in a best case scenario, climate science research indicates that we anticipate experiencing widespread coral mortality, hundreds of millions of people at risk of increased water stress, more damage from droughts and heat waves and floods, up to 30% of global species at risk for extinction, and declined global food production, for example.

Those are the anticipated impacts if we limit global warming to not much above 2°C warming as compared to pre-industrial levels. Accomplishing that would require intensive efforts to reduce human greenhouse gas emissions, and if we fail, the consequence will be far worse.

The good news is that slowing global warming can be accomplished with minimal economic impact. In fact, economic research consistently shows that reducing greenhouse gas emissions, if done right, is far cheaper than paying for the damages caused by unabated climate change. For example, a revenue-neutral carbon tax could create jobs and grow the economy. Two recent studies by the New Climate Economy Project and the International Monetary Fund likewise found that reducing carbon pollution could grow the economy, as summarized by The Guardian.

As Koonin noted in his piece, risk management is key in determining how to respond to the threats posed by climate change. On the one hand, we have a threat to the entire global climate on which every species on Earth relies, which humans are in the process of destabilizing at a rate more rapid than many species can adapt.

On the other hand, we have concerns about the impacts of climate policy on the economy. However, numerous studies have found that if done right, those policies can grow the economy, and will certainly be cheaper than paying for the damages of unabated climate change.

While uncertainties remain about whether the impacts of climate change will be bad, catastrophic, or somewhere in between, that’s precisely the kind of scenario in which uncertainty is not our friend. When faced with a risk to something so important, humans are usually smart enough to take action to manage that risk. For example, we buy home insurance, we wear seat belts, and fewer people now smoke than in previous generations who were unaware of the associated risks.

The climate contrarian guide to managing risk.  Created by John Cook.
The climate contrarian guide to managing risk. Created by John Cook. Photograph: Skeptical Science

It’s critical to grasp not just that there are uncertainties about the impacts of climate change, but what those uncertainties tell us about the range of potential outcomes. It’s easy to simply say “the impacts are uncertain,” but when those uncertainties range from bad to catastrophic, taking action to mitigate the threat is a no-brainer. Additionally, larger uncertainty means that we can’t rule out the most catastrophic potential impacts, and actually makes the case for taking action stronger, as a study published earlier this year showed.

The bottom line is that while there are and always will be uncertainties in climate science that require further research, it’s already been several decades since we’ve understood climate change well enough to justify taking serious action to solve the problem. The longer we wait, the costlier those actions become, and the worse the impacts of human-caused global warming will be. The hundreds of thousands of people who marched yesterday understand that, but the Murdoch media hasn’t caught up yet.

Global Warming’s Terrifying New Math (Rolling Stone)

Three simple numbers that add up to global catastrophe – and that make clear who the real enemy is

reckoning illo
Illustration by Edel Rodriguez
BY | July 19, 2012

If the pictures of those towering wildfires in Colorado haven’t convinced you, or the size of your AC bill this summer, here are some hard numbers about climate change: June broke or tied 3,215 high-temperature records across the United States. That followed the warmest May on record for the Northern Hemisphere – the 327th consecutive month in which the temperature of the entire globe exceeded the 20th-century average, the odds of which occurring by simple chance were 3.7 x 10-99, a number considerably larger than the number of stars in the universe.

Meteorologists reported that this spring was the warmest ever recorded for our nation – in fact, it crushed the old record by so much that it represented the “largest temperature departure from average of any season on record.” The same week, Saudi authorities reported that it had rained in Mecca despite a temperature of 109 degrees, the hottest downpour in the planet’s history.

Not that our leaders seemed to notice. Last month the world’s nations, meeting in Rio for the 20th-anniversary reprise of a massive 1992 environmental summit, accomplished nothing. Unlike George H.W. Bush, who flew in for the first conclave, Barack Obama didn’t even attend. It was “a ghost of the glad, confident meeting 20 years ago,” the British journalist George Monbiot wrote; no one paid it much attention, footsteps echoing through the halls “once thronged by multitudes.” Since I wrote one of the first books for a general audience about global warming way back in 1989, and since I’ve spent the intervening decades working ineffectively to slow that warming, I can say with some confidence that we’re losing the fight, badly and quickly – losing it because, most of all, we remain in denial about the peril that human civilization is in.

When we think about global warming at all, the arguments tend to be ideological, theological and economic. But to grasp the seriousness of our predicament, you just need to do a little math. For the past year, an easy and powerful bit of arithmetical analysis first published by financial analysts in the U.K. has been making the rounds of environmental conferences and journals, but it hasn’t yet broken through to the larger public. This analysis upends most of the conventional political thinking about climate change. And it allows us to understand our precarious – our almost-but-not-quite-finally hopeless – position with three simple numbers.

The First Number: 2° Celsius

If the movie had ended in Hollywood fashion, the Copenhagen climate conference in 2009 would have marked the culmination of the global fight to slow a changing climate. The world’s nations had gathered in the December gloom of the Danish capital for what a leading climate economist, Sir Nicholas Stern of Britain, called the “most important gathering since the Second World War, given what is at stake.” As Danish energy minister Connie Hedegaard, who presided over the conference, declared at the time: “This is our chance. If we miss it, it could take years before we get a new and better one. If ever.”

In the event, of course, we missed it. Copenhagen failed spectacularly. Neither China nor the United States, which between them are responsible for 40 percent of global carbon emissions, was prepared to offer dramatic concessions, and so the conference drifted aimlessly for two weeks until world leaders jetted in for the final day. Amid considerable chaos, President Obama took the lead in drafting a face-saving “Copenhagen Accord” that fooled very few. Its purely voluntary agreements committed no one to anything, and even if countries signaled their intentions to cut carbon emissions, there was no enforcement mechanism. “Copenhagen is a crime scene tonight,” an angry Greenpeace official declared, “with the guilty men and women fleeing to the airport.” Headline writers were equally brutal: COPENHAGEN: THE MUNICH OF OUR TIMES? asked one.

The accord did contain one important number, however. In Paragraph 1, it formally recognized “the scientific view that the increase in global temperature should be below two degrees Celsius.” And in the very next paragraph, it declared that “we agree that deep cuts in global emissions are required… so as to hold the increase in global temperature below two degrees Celsius.” By insisting on two degrees – about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit – the accord ratified positions taken earlier in 2009 by the G8, and the so-called Major Economies Forum. It was as conventional as conventional wisdom gets. The number first gained prominence, in fact, at a 1995 climate conference chaired by Angela Merkel, then the German minister of the environment and now the center-right chancellor of the nation.

Some context: So far, we’ve raised the average temperature of the planet just under 0.8 degrees Celsius, and that has caused far more damage than most scientists expected. (A third of summer sea ice in the Arctic is gone, the oceans are 30 percent more acidic, and since warm air holds more water vapor than cold, the atmosphere over the oceans is a shocking five percent wetter, loading the dice for devastating floods.) Given those impacts, in fact, many scientists have come to think that two degrees is far too lenient a target. “Any number much above one degree involves a gamble,” writes Kerry Emanuel of MIT, a leading authority on hurricanes, “and the odds become less and less favorable as the temperature goes up.” Thomas Lovejoy, once the World Bank’s chief biodiversity adviser, puts it like this: “If we’re seeing what we’re seeing today at 0.8 degrees Celsius, two degrees is simply too much.” NASA scientist James Hansen, the planet’s most prominent climatologist, is even blunter: “The target that has been talked about in international negotiations for two degrees of warming is actually a prescription for long-term disaster.” At the Copenhagen summit, a spokesman for small island nations warned that many would not survive a two-degree rise: “Some countries will flat-out disappear.” When delegates from developing nations were warned that two degrees would represent a “suicide pact” for drought-stricken Africa, many of them started chanting, “One degree, one Africa.”

Despite such well-founded misgivings, political realism bested scientific data, and the world settled on the two-degree target – indeed, it’s fair to say that it’s the only thing about climate change the world has settled on. All told, 167 countries responsible for more than 87 percent of the world’s carbon emissions have signed on to the Copenhagen Accord, endorsing the two-degree target. Only a few dozen countries have rejected it, including Kuwait, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Even the United Arab Emirates, which makes most of its money exporting oil and gas, signed on. The official position of planet Earth at the moment is that we can’t raise the temperature more than two degrees Celsius – it’s become the bottomest of bottom lines. Two degrees.

The Second Number: 565 Gigatons

Scientists estimate that humans can pour roughly 565 more gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by midcentury and still have some reasonable hope of staying below two degrees. (“Reasonable,” in this case, means four chances in five, or somewhat worse odds than playing Russian roulette with a six-shooter.)

This idea of a global “carbon budget” emerged about a decade ago, as scientists began to calculate how much oil, coal and gas could still safely be burned. Since we’ve increased the Earth’s temperature by 0.8 degrees so far, we’re currently less than halfway to the target. But, in fact, computer models calculate that even if we stopped increasing CO2 now, the temperature would likely still rise another 0.8 degrees, as previously released carbon continues to overheat the atmosphere. That means we’re already three-quarters of the way to the two-degree target.

How good are these numbers? No one is insisting that they’re exact, but few dispute that they’re generally right. The 565-gigaton figure was derived from one of the most sophisticated computer-simulation models that have been built by climate scientists around the world over the past few decades. And the number is being further confirmed by the latest climate-simulation models currently being finalized in advance of the next report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “Looking at them as they come in, they hardly differ at all,” says Tom Wigley, an Australian climatologist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. “There’s maybe 40 models in the data set now, compared with 20 before. But so far the numbers are pretty much the same. We’re just fine-tuning things. I don’t think much has changed over the last decade.” William Collins, a senior climate scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, agrees. “I think the results of this round of simulations will be quite similar,” he says. “We’re not getting any free lunch from additional understanding of the climate system.”

We’re not getting any free lunch from the world’s economies, either. With only a single year’s lull in 2009 at the height of the financial crisis, we’ve continued to pour record amounts of carbon into the atmosphere, year after year. In late May, the International Energy Agency published its latest figures – CO2 emissions last year rose to 31.6 gigatons, up 3.2 percent from the year before. America had a warm winter and converted more coal-fired power plants to natural gas, so its emissions fell slightly; China kept booming, so its carbon output (which recently surpassed the U.S.) rose 9.3 percent; the Japanese shut down their fleet of nukes post-Fukushima, so their emissions edged up 2.4 percent. “There have been efforts to use more renewable energy and improve energy efficiency,” said Corinne Le Quéré, who runs England’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. “But what this shows is that so far the effects have been marginal.” In fact, study after study predicts that carbon emissions will keep growing by roughly three percent a year – and at that rate, we’ll blow through our 565-gigaton allowance in 16 years, around the time today’s preschoolers will be graduating from high school. “The new data provide further evidence that the door to a two-degree trajectory is about to close,” said Fatih Birol, the IEA’s chief economist. In fact, he continued, “When I look at this data, the trend is perfectly in line with a temperature increase of about six degrees.” That’s almost 11 degrees Fahrenheit, which would create a planet straight out of science fiction.

So, new data in hand, everyone at the Rio conference renewed their ritual calls for serious international action to move us back to a two-degree trajectory. The charade will continue in November, when the next Conference of the Parties (COP) of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change convenes in Qatar. This will be COP 18 – COP 1 was held in Berlin in 1995, and since then the process has accomplished essentially nothing. Even scientists, who are notoriously reluctant to speak out, are slowly overcoming their natural preference to simply provide data. “The message has been consistent for close to 30 years now,” Collins says with a wry laugh, “and we have the instrumentation and the computer power required to present the evidence in detail. If we choose to continue on our present course of action, it should be done with a full evaluation of the evidence the scientific community has presented.” He pauses, suddenly conscious of being on the record. “I should say, a fuller evaluation of the evidence.”

So far, though, such calls have had little effect. We’re in the same position we’ve been in for a quarter-century: scientific warning followed by political inaction. Among scientists speaking off the record, disgusted candor is the rule. One senior scientist told me, “You know those new cigarette packs, where governments make them put a picture of someone with a hole in their throats? Gas pumps should have something like that.”

The Third Number: 2,795 Gigatons

This number is the scariest of all – one that, for the first time, meshes the political and scientific dimensions of our dilemma. It was highlighted last summer by the Carbon Tracker Initiative, a team of London financial analysts and environmentalists who published a report in an effort to educate investors about the possible risks that climate change poses to their stock portfolios. The number describes the amount of carbon already contained in the proven coal and oil and gas reserves of the fossil-fuel companies, and the countries (think Venezuela or Kuwait) that act like fossil-fuel companies. In short, it’s the fossil fuel we’re currently planning to burn. And the key point is that this new number – 2,795 – is higher than 565. Five times higher.

The Carbon Tracker Initiative – led by James Leaton, an environmentalist who served as an adviser at the accounting giant PricewaterhouseCoopers – combed through proprietary databases to figure out how much oil, gas and coal the world’s major energy companies hold in reserve. The numbers aren’t perfect – they don’t fully reflect the recent surge in unconventional energy sources like shale gas, and they don’t accurately reflect coal reserves, which are subject to less stringent reporting requirements than oil and gas. But for the biggest companies, the figures are quite exact: If you burned everything in the inventories of Russia’s Lukoil and America’s ExxonMobil, for instance, which lead the list of oil and gas companies, each would release more than 40 gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

Which is exactly why this new number, 2,795 gigatons, is such a big deal. Think of two degrees Celsius as the legal drinking limit – equivalent to the 0.08 blood-alcohol level below which you might get away with driving home. The 565 gigatons is how many drinks you could have and still stay below that limit – the six beers, say, you might consume in an evening. And the 2,795 gigatons? That’s the three 12-packs the fossil-fuel industry has on the table, already opened and ready to pour.

We have five times as much oil and coal and gas on the books as climate scientists think is safe to burn. We’d have to keep 80 percent of those reserves locked away underground to avoid that fate. Before we knew those numbers, our fate had been likely. Now, barring some massive intervention, it seems certain.

Yes, this coal and gas and oil is still technically in the soil. But it’s already economically aboveground – it’s figured into share prices, companies are borrowing money against it, nations are basing their budgets on the presumed returns from their patrimony. It explains why the big fossil-fuel companies have fought so hard to prevent the regulation of carbon dioxide – those reserves are their primary asset, the holding that gives their companies their value. It’s why they’ve worked so hard these past years to figure out how to unlock the oil in Canada’s tar sands, or how to drill miles beneath the sea, or how to frack the Appalachians.

If you told Exxon or Lukoil that, in order to avoid wrecking the climate, they couldn’t pump out their reserves, the value of their companies would plummet. John Fullerton, a former managing director at JP Morgan who now runs the Capital Institute, calculates that at today’s market value, those 2,795 gigatons of carbon emissions are worth about $27 trillion. Which is to say, if you paid attention to the scientists and kept 80 percent of it underground, you’d be writing off $20 trillion in assets. The numbers aren’t exact, of course, but that carbon bubble makes the housing bubble look small by comparison. It won’t necessarily burst – we might well burn all that carbon, in which case investors will do fine. But if we do, the planet will crater. You can have a healthy fossil-fuel balance sheet, or a relatively healthy planet – but now that we know the numbers, it looks like you can’t have both. Do the math: 2,795 is five times 565. That’s how the story ends.

So far, as I said at the start, environmental efforts to tackle global warming have failed. The planet’s emissions of carbon dioxide continue to soar, especially as developing countries emulate (and supplant) the industries of the West. Even in rich countries, small reductions in emissions offer no sign of the real break with the status quo we’d need to upend the iron logic of these three numbers. Germany is one of the only big countries that has actually tried hard to change its energy mix; on one sunny Saturday in late May, that northern-latitude nation generated nearly half its power from solar panels within its borders. That’s a small miracle – and it demonstrates that we have the technology to solve our problems. But we lack the will. So far, Germany’s the exception; the rule is ever more carbon.

This record of failure means we know a lot about what strategies don’t work. Green groups, for instance, have spent a lot of time trying to change individual lifestyles: the iconic twisty light bulb has been installed by the millions, but so have a new generation of energy-sucking flatscreen TVs. Most of us are fundamentally ambivalent about going green: We like cheap flights to warm places, and we’re certainly not going to give them up if everyone else is still taking them. Since all of us are in some way the beneficiaries of cheap fossil fuel, tackling climate change has been like trying to build a movement against yourself – it’s as if the gay-rights movement had to be constructed entirely from evangelical preachers, or the abolition movement from slaveholders.

People perceive – correctly – that their individual actions will not make a decisive difference in the atmospheric concentration of CO2; by 2010, a poll found that “while recycling is widespread in America and 73 percent of those polled are paying bills online in order to save paper,” only four percent had reduced their utility use and only three percent had purchased hybrid cars. Given a hundred years, you could conceivably change lifestyles enough to matter – but time is precisely what we lack.

A more efficient method, of course, would be to work through the political system, and environmentalists have tried that, too, with the same limited success. They’ve patiently lobbied leaders, trying to convince them of our peril and assuming that politicians would heed the warnings. Sometimes it has seemed to work. Barack Obama, for instance, campaigned more aggressively about climate change than any president before him – the night he won the nomination, he told supporters that his election would mark the moment “the rise of the oceans began to slow and the planet began to heal.” And he has achieved one significant change: a steady increase in the fuel efficiency mandated for automobiles. It’s the kind of measure, adopted a quarter-century ago, that would have helped enormously. But in light of the numbers I’ve just described, it’s obviously a very small start indeed.

At this point, effective action would require actually keeping most of the carbon the fossil-fuel industry wants to burn safely in the soil, not just changing slightly the speed at which it’s burned. And there the president, apparently haunted by the still-echoing cry of “Drill, baby, drill,” has gone out of his way to frack and mine. His secretary of interior, for instance, opened up a huge swath of the Powder River Basin in Wyoming for coal extraction: The total basin contains some 67.5 gigatons worth of carbon (or more than 10 percent of the available atmospheric space). He’s doing the same thing with Arctic and offshore drilling; in fact, as he explained on the stump in March, “You have my word that we will keep drilling everywhere we can… That’s a commitment that I make.” The next day, in a yard full of oil pipe in Cushing, Oklahoma, the president promised to work on wind and solar energy but, at the same time, to speed up fossil-fuel development: “Producing more oil and gas here at home has been, and will continue to be, a critical part of an all-of-the-above energy strategy.” That is, he’s committed to finding even more stock to add to the 2,795-gigaton inventory of unburned carbon.

Sometimes the irony is almost Borat-scale obvious: In early June, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton traveled on a Norwegian research trawler to see firsthand the growing damage from climate change. “Many of the predictions about warming in the Arctic are being surpassed by the actual data,” she said, describing the sight as “sobering.” But the discussions she traveled to Scandinavia to have with other foreign ministers were mostly about how to make sure Western nations get their share of the estimated $9 trillion in oil (that’s more than 90 billion barrels, or 37 gigatons of carbon) that will become accessible as the Arctic ice melts. Last month, the Obama administration indicated that it would give Shell permission to start drilling in sections of the Arctic.

Almost every government with deposits of hydrocarbons straddles the same divide. Canada, for instance, is a liberal democracy renowned for its internationalism – no wonder, then, that it signed on to the Kyoto treaty, promising to cut its carbon emissions substantially by 2012. But the rising price of oil suddenly made the tar sands of Alberta economically attractive – and since, as NASA climatologist James Hansen pointed out in May, they contain as much as 240 gigatons of carbon (or almost half of the available space if we take the 565 limit seriously), that meant Canada’s commitment to Kyoto was nonsense. In December, the Canadian government withdrew from the treaty before it faced fines for failing to meet its commitments.

The same kind of hypocrisy applies across the ideological board: In his speech to the Copenhagen conference, Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez quoted Rosa Luxemburg, Jean-Jacques Rousseau and “Christ the Redeemer,” insisting that “climate change is undoubtedly the most devastating environmental problem of this century.” But the next spring, in the Simon Bolivar Hall of the state-run oil company, he signed an agreement with a consortium of international players to develop the vast Orinoco tar sands as “the most significant engine for a comprehensive development of the entire territory and Venezuelan population.” The Orinoco deposits are larger than Alberta’s – taken together, they’d fill up the whole available atmospheric space.

So: the paths we have tried to tackle global warming have so far produced only gradual, halting shifts. A rapid, transformative change would require building a movement, and movements require enemies. As John F. Kennedy put it, “The civil rights movement should thank God for Bull Connor. He’s helped it as much as Abraham Lincoln.” And enemies are what climate change has lacked.

But what all these climate numbers make painfully, usefully clear is that the planet does indeed have an enemy – one far more committed to action than governments or individuals. Given this hard math, we need to view the fossil-fuel industry in a new light. It has become a rogue industry, reckless like no other force on Earth. It is Public Enemy Number One to the survival of our planetary civilization. “Lots of companies do rotten things in the course of their business – pay terrible wages, make people work in sweatshops – and we pressure them to change those practices,” says veteran anti-corporate leader Naomi Klein, who is at work on a book about the climate crisis. “But these numbers make clear that with the fossil-fuel industry, wrecking the planet is their business model. It’s what they do.”

According to the Carbon Tracker report, if Exxon burns its current reserves, it would use up more than seven percent of the available atmospheric space between us and the risk of two degrees. BP is just behind, followed by the Russian firm Gazprom, then Chevron, ConocoPhillips and Shell, each of which would fill between three and four percent. Taken together, just these six firms, of the 200 listed in the Carbon Tracker report, would use up more than a quarter of the remaining two-degree budget. Severstal, the Russian mining giant, leads the list of coal companies, followed by firms like BHP Billiton and Peabody. The numbers are simply staggering – this industry, and this industry alone, holds the power to change the physics and chemistry of our planet, and they’re planning to use it.

They’re clearly cognizant of global warming – they employ some of the world’s best scientists, after all, and they’re bidding on all those oil leases made possible by the staggering melt of Arctic ice. And yet they relentlessly search for more hydrocarbons – in early March, Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson told Wall Street analysts that the company plans to spend $37 billion a year through 2016 (about $100 million a day) searching for yet more oil and gas.

There’s not a more reckless man on the planet than Tillerson. Late last month, on the same day the Colorado fires reached their height, he told a New York audience that global warming is real, but dismissed it as an “engineering problem” that has “engineering solutions.” Such as? “Changes to weather patterns that move crop-production areas around – we’ll adapt to that.” This in a week when Kentucky farmers were reporting that corn kernels were “aborting” in record heat, threatening a spike in global food prices. “The fear factor that people want to throw out there to say, ‘We just have to stop this,’ I do not accept,” Tillerson said. Of course not – if he did accept it, he’d have to keep his reserves in the ground. Which would cost him money. It’s not an engineering problem, in other words – it’s a greed problem.

You could argue that this is simply in the nature of these companies – that having found a profitable vein, they’re compelled to keep mining it, more like efficient automatons than people with free will. But as the Supreme Court has made clear, they are people of a sort. In fact, thanks to the size of its bankroll, the fossil-fuel industry has far more free will than the rest of us. These companies don’t simply exist in a world whose hungers they fulfill – they help create the boundaries of that world.

Left to our own devices, citizens might decide to regulate carbon and stop short of the brink; according to a recent poll, nearly two-thirds of Americans would back an international agreement that cut carbon emissions 90 percent by 2050. But we aren’t left to our own devices. The Koch brothers, for instance, have a combined wealth of $50 billion, meaning they trail only Bill Gates on the list of richest Americans. They’ve made most of their money in hydrocarbons, they know any system to regulate carbon would cut those profits, and they reportedly plan to lavish as much as $200 million on this year’s elections. In 2009, for the first time, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce surpassed both the Republican and Democratic National Committees on political spending; the following year, more than 90 percent of the Chamber’s cash went to GOP candidates, many of whom deny the existence of global warming. Not long ago, the Chamber even filed a brief with the EPA urging the agency not to regulate carbon – should the world’s scientists turn out to be right and the planet heats up, the Chamber advised, “populations can acclimatize to warmer climates via a range of behavioral, physiological and technological adaptations.” As radical goes, demanding that we change our physiology seems right up there.

Environmentalists, understandably, have been loath to make the fossil-fuel industry their enemy, respecting its political power and hoping instead to convince these giants that they should turn away from coal, oil and gas and transform themselves more broadly into “energy companies.” Sometimes that strategy appeared to be working – emphasis on appeared. Around the turn of the century, for instance, BP made a brief attempt to restyle itself as “Beyond Petroleum,” adapting a logo that looked like the sun and sticking solar panels on some of its gas stations. But its investments in alternative energy were never more than a tiny fraction of its budget for hydrocarbon exploration, and after a few years, many of those were wound down as new CEOs insisted on returning to the company’s “core business.” In December, BP finally closed its solar division. Shell shut down its solar and wind efforts in 2009. The five biggest oil companies have made more than $1 trillion in profits since the millennium – there’s simply too much money to be made on oil and gas and coal to go chasing after zephyrs and sunbeams.

Much of that profit stems from a single historical accident: Alone among businesses, the fossil-fuel industry is allowed to dump its main waste, carbon dioxide, for free. Nobody else gets that break – if you own a restaurant, you have to pay someone to cart away your trash, since piling it in the street would breed rats. But the fossil-fuel industry is different, and for sound historical reasons: Until a quarter-century ago, almost no one knew that CO2 was dangerous. But now that we understand that carbon is heating the planet and acidifying the oceans, its price becomes the central issue.

If you put a price on carbon, through a direct tax or other methods, it would enlist markets in the fight against global warming. Once Exxon has to pay for the damage its carbon is doing to the atmosphere, the price of its products would rise. Consumers would get a strong signal to use less fossil fuel – every time they stopped at the pump, they’d be reminded that you don’t need a semimilitary vehicle to go to the grocery store. The economic playing field would now be a level one for nonpolluting energy sources. And you could do it all without bankrupting citizens – a so-called “fee-and-dividend” scheme would put a hefty tax on coal and gas and oil, then simply divide up the proceeds, sending everyone in the country a check each month for their share of the added costs of carbon. By switching to cleaner energy sources, most people would actually come out ahead.

There’s only one problem: Putting a price on carbon would reduce the profitability of the fossil-fuel industry. After all, the answer to the question “How high should the price of carbon be?” is “High enough to keep those carbon reserves that would take us past two degrees safely in the ground.” The higher the price on carbon, the more of those reserves would be worthless. The fight, in the end, is about whether the industry will succeed in its fight to keep its special pollution break alive past the point of climate catastrophe, or whether, in the economists’ parlance, we’ll make them internalize those externalities.

It’s not clear, of course, that the power of the fossil-fuel industry can be broken. The U.K. analysts who wrote the Carbon Tracker report and drew attention to these numbers had a relatively modest goal – they simply wanted to remind investors that climate change poses a very real risk to the stock prices of energy companies. Say something so big finally happens (a giant hurricane swamps Manhattan, a megadrought wipes out Midwest agriculture) that even the political power of the industry is inadequate to restrain legislators, who manage to regulate carbon. Suddenly those Chevron reserves would be a lot less valuable, and the stock would tank. Given that risk, the Carbon Tracker report warned investors to lessen their exposure, hedge it with some big plays in alternative energy.

“The regular process of economic evolution is that businesses are left with stranded assets all the time,” says Nick Robins, who runs HSBC’s Climate Change Centre. “Think of film cameras, or typewriters. The question is not whether this will happen. It will. Pension systems have been hit by the dot-com and credit crunch. They’ll be hit by this.” Still, it hasn’t been easy to convince investors, who have shared in the oil industry’s record profits. “The reason you get bubbles,” sighs Leaton, “is that everyone thinks they’re the best analyst – that they’ll go to the edge of the cliff and then jump back when everyone else goes over.”

So pure self-interest probably won’t spark a transformative challenge to fossil fuel. But moral outrage just might – and that’s the real meaning of this new math. It could, plausibly, give rise to a real movement.

Once, in recent corporate history, anger forced an industry to make basic changes. That was the campaign in the 1980s demanding divestment from companies doing business in South Africa. It rose first on college campuses and then spread to municipal and state governments; 155 campuses eventually divested, and by the end of the decade, more than 80 cities, 25 states and 19 counties had taken some form of binding economic action against companies connected to the apartheid regime. “The end of apartheid stands as one of the crowning accomplishments of the past century,” as Archbishop Desmond Tutu put it, “but we would not have succeeded without the help of international pressure,” especially from “the divestment movement of the 1980s.”

The fossil-fuel industry is obviously a tougher opponent, and even if you could force the hand of particular companies, you’d still have to figure out a strategy for dealing with all the sovereign nations that, in effect, act as fossil-fuel companies. But the link for college students is even more obvious in this case. If their college’s endowment portfolio has fossil-fuel stock, then their educations are being subsidized by investments that guarantee they won’t have much of a planet on which to make use of their degree. (The same logic applies to the world’s largest investors, pension funds, which are also theoretically interested in the future – that’s when their members will “enjoy their retirement.”) “Given the severity of the climate crisis, a comparable demand that our institutions dump stock from companies that are destroying the planet would not only be appropriate but effective,” says Bob Massie, a former anti-apartheid activist who helped found the Investor Network on Climate Risk. “The message is simple: We have had enough. We must sever the ties with those who profit from climate change – now.”

Movements rarely have predictable outcomes. But any campaign that weakens the fossil-fuel industry’s political standing clearly increases the chances of retiring its special breaks. Consider President Obama’s signal achievement in the climate fight, the large increase he won in mileage requirements for cars. Scientists, environmentalists and engineers had advocated such policies for decades, but until Detroit came under severe financial pressure, it was politically powerful enough to fend them off. If people come to understand the cold, mathematical truth – that the fossil-fuel industry is systematically undermining the planet’s physical systems – it might weaken it enough to matter politically. Exxon and their ilk might drop their opposition to a fee-and-dividend solution; they might even decide to become true energy companies, this time for real.

Even if such a campaign is possible, however, we may have waited too long to start it. To make a real difference – to keep us under a temperature increase of two degrees – you’d need to change carbon pricing in Washington, and then use that victory to leverage similar shifts around the world. At this point, what happens in the U.S. is most important for how it will influence China and India, where emissions are growing fastest. (In early June, researchers concluded that China has probably under-reported its emissions by up to 20 percent.) The three numbers I’ve described are daunting – they may define an essentially impossible future. But at least they provide intellectual clarity about the greatest challenge humans have ever faced. We know how much we can burn, and we know who’s planning to burn more. Climate change operates on a geological scale and time frame, but it’s not an impersonal force of nature; the more carefully you do the math, the more thoroughly you realize that this is, at bottom, a moral issue; we have met the enemy and they is Shell.

Meanwhile the tide of numbers continues. The week after the Rio conference limped to its conclusion, Arctic sea ice hit the lowest level ever recorded for that date. Last month, on a single weekend, Tropical Storm Debby dumped more than 20 inches of rain on Florida – the earliest the season’s fourth-named cyclone has ever arrived. At the same time, the largest fire in New Mexico history burned on, and the most destructive fire in Colorado’s annals claimed 346 homes in Colorado Springs – breaking a record set the week before in Fort Collins. This month, scientists issued a new study concluding that global warming has dramatically increased the likelihood of severe heat and drought – days after a heat wave across the Plains and Midwest broke records that had stood since the Dust Bowl, threatening this year’s harvest. You want a big number? In the course of this month, a quadrillion kernels of corn need to pollinate across the grain belt, something they can’t do if temperatures remain off the charts. Just like us, our crops are adapted to the Holocene, the 11,000-year period of climatic stability we’re now leaving… in the dust.

This story is from the August 2nd, 2012 issue of Rolling Stone.

Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warmings-terrifying-new-math-20120719#ixzz3DcnjPUtj
Follow us: @rollingstone on Twitter | RollingStone on Facebook

Filmmakers Propose Online “Swarm Offensive” Against Climate Change (Yes!)

Open source software brought us Linux and Wikipedia. Can it help us tackle the challenge of climate change?

by

Coalition Of The Willing from coalitionfilm on Vimeo.

This beautifully animated short video argues that grassroots efforts to deal with climate change can be more effective if they adopt the tactics of open source technology, using databases and social networks to “tap into our collective genius” to tackle the toughest of global challenges.

The art featured in the film was crafted by a group of 24 artists from around the world.

The film characterizes the counterculture of the 1960s as a highly networked and decentralized movement that challenged capitalism—and calls for a similar but more technologically savvy attack on climate change.

And then there’s the scene in which Ronald Reagan literally snorts hippies like cocaine through a twenty-dollar bill.

“Coalition of the Willing” was produced and directed by the British animator Simon Robson—better known as Knife Party—and written by author Tim Rayner. The art featured in the film was crafted by a group of 24 artists from around the world, including leaders in digital animation such as Decoy, World Leaders, and Parasol Island.

China, the Climate and the Fate of the Planet (Rolling Stone)

If the world’s biggest polluter doesn’t radically reduce the amount of coal it burns, nothing anyone does to stabilize the climate will matter. Inside the slow, frustrating — and maybe even hopeful — struggle to find a new way forward

 By | September 15, 2014

As the sun rises in mid-july over andrews Air Force Base near Washington, D.C., Secretary of State John Kerry climbs quickly – he’s positively bouncing – up the carpeted stairs of his blue-and-white government­issue 757. Kerry is heading to Beijing to talk with Chinese leaders about, among other things, one of President Obama’s top priorities in the waning days of his second term: the urgent need to reduce carbon pollution and limit the damage from climate change. But the rest of the world isn’t cutting Kerry any slack right now – there’s trouble with the elections in Afghanistan, rising conflict in the Middle East and upcoming negotiations with Iran on nuclear weapons. As he ducks into the plane, Kerry is already talking intensely on his cellphone, deeply wired into the global chaos. An aide shoulders his bags as well as a large black case that contains his acoustic guitar, which he takes with him everywhere and often plays late at night when he’s alone in his hotel room.

For nearly a decade, the U.S. and China, the two most powerful nations on the planet, have met every year to talk about how to run the world together. When the talks began in 2006, they focused on issues like currency-exchange rates, trade barriers and China’s never-ending disputes with Taiwan. In 2009, shortly after Obama’s inauguration, the U.S. pushed to add climate change to the mix, hoping that a better understanding between the U.S. and China would lead to a better deal at the Copenhagen climate summit that year. (It didn’t help – mistrust between the countries was a large part of the reason why the talks imploded.)

This year’s U.S. delegation includes many of the administration’s most influential climate hawks – Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, top climate negotiator Todd Stern and John Podesta, counselor to Obama, who has become the administration’s de facto point man for climate policy. This is the diplomatic equivalent of a full-court press. In the past couple of years, Obama has made some important moves, including investing billions in clean energy, jacking up vehicle-efficiency standards and proposing rules to limit pollution from U.S. coal plants. But climate change is a global issue. Unless the West can persuade other countries to take climate action seriously, nothing any single nation does is going to matter much when it comes to solving the problem.

Except, that is, for China. The blunt truth is that what China decides to do in the next decade will likely determine whether or not mankind can halt – or at least ameliorate – global warming. The view among a number of prominent climate scientists is that if China’s emissions peak around 2025, we may – just barely – have a shot at stabilizing the climate before all hell breaks loose. But the Chinese have resisted international pressure to curb their emissions. For years, they have used the argument that they are poor, the West is rich, and that the high levels of carbon in the atmosphere were caused by America’s and Europe’s 200-year-long fossil­fuel binge. Climate change is your problem, they argued – you deal with it. But that logic doesn’t hold anymore. China is set to become the largest economy in the world this year, and in 2006, it passed the U.S. as the planet’s largest carbon polluter. China now dumps 10 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere every year. That number is expected to grow to 15 billion tons by 2030, dwarfing the pollution of the rest of the world. If that happens, then the chances that the world will cut carbon pollution quickly enough to avert dangerous climate change is, according to Kevin Anderson, deputy director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in the U.K., “virtually zero.”

John Kerry knows this. He also knows that when the nations of the world gather in Paris next December to try to hammer out a global climate agreement, it may be the last best chance to address this problem before the Years of Living Dangerously begin. Like other climate negotiations held under the banner of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Paris meeting is likely to be warped by 25-year-old grudges and a profound sense of distrust. “But right now, Paris is the only game we have,” one member of the State Department’s climate team told me. “If it fails, there is no Plan B.”

In Beijing, one of Kerry’s goals will be to find out all he can about China’s strategy for Paris – what kind of commitment the Chinese might make, how sincere they are, what tactics they will use. But for Kerry, this is anything but a straightforward conversation, because it’s twisted up in the shadow play of U.S.-China relations, which are marked by suspicion, paranoia and saber rattling on both sides as the U.S. adjusts to China’s rising power in the world. “What we are living through now is the end of 500 years of Western predominance,” historian Niall Ferguson has written. The issue is not whether China will challenge America’s dominance, but when and how.

Secretary of State Kerry met with China's Preisent Xi

Secretary of State Kerry met with China’s Preisent Xi in Beijin in July. (Photo: © Jim Bourg/Reuters/Corbis)

Shortly before takeoff, Kerry wanders down the aisle to chat. He talks idly about his July 4th celebration and the recent storm damages to his house on Nantucket. But when asked about his expectations for the Beijing summit, he looks grave: “Frankly, we’re not sure where this is all going.” He remembers what happened in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997, when the U.S. was mocked for signing an agreement that the Senate would never ratify, and in Copenhagen in 2009, when Obama arrived at a conference that was supposed to save the world but ended up being gridlocked by squabbles over money and emissions targets. Kerry is determined not to let that happen again.

After 25 years of failed climate negotiations, it’s easy to be cynical about the upcoming talks in Paris. But there are at least three factors that make a meaningful agreement next year possible.

The first is that climate change is no longer a hypothetical problem – it’s happening in real time all around us. Droughts, floods, more destructive storms, weird weather of all sorts – just look out your window. In the latest reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world’s top scientists called the fact that the Earth is warming “unequivocal” and stated that humans are the cause of it. Without dramatic action, the planet could warm up as much as 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 F) by the end of the century, which would be catastrophic. As Kerry said of a report last September, “The response must be all hands on deck. It’s not about one country making a demand of another. It’s the science itself demanding action from all of us.”

The second factor is that until now, the biggest obstacle to an international agreement to reduce carbon pollution has been the United States. But that’s starting to change. Thanks to Obama’s recent crackdown on pollution, as well as the boom in cheap natural gas, which has displaced dirty coal, carbon emissions in the U.S. are on the decline. “What the president has done is very important,” says Robert Stavins, director of the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements. “It allows the U.S. to look at other countries and say, ‘Hey, what are you doing?'”

The final reason for hope, paradoxically, is China’s relentless demand for energy. China is in the midst of a profound economic and social transformation, trying to reinvent itself from an economy based on selling cheap goods overseas to an economy based on selling quality consumer goods at home, while keeping growth rates high and cutting dependence on fossil fuels. Energy demand is expected to double by 2030, and at that pace, there is not enough oil, coal and gas in the world to keep their economy humming. So China’s ongoing energy security depends on the nation developing alternative energy sources in a big way. “We need more of everything,” says Peggy Liu, a sustainability leader who works across China. “Wind, solar, a modernized grid. We need to leapfrog over the past and into a clean-energy future.”

China’s leaders are also waking up to the fact that recent decades of hypergrowth, most of it fired by coal, have exacted a steep price. Air pollution in China’s big cities is among the worst in the world; one recent report found that poor air quality contributed to 1.2 million premature deaths in 2010. As Hank Paulson, former Secretary of the Treasury and longtime China observer, has put it, “What is another point of GDP worth, if dirty air is killing people?” Earlier this year, a riot broke out in Zhongtai, a town in eastern China, when protests against a new waste incinerator turned violent, leaving police vehicles torched and at least 39 people injured; in southern China, protests erupted over the construction of a coal-fired power plant. Similar clashes are increasingly frequent in China as pollution-related illnesses rise.

And it’s not just the air that’s a problem in China. More than 20 percent of the country’s farmland is polluted. Sixty percent of its groundwater supply is unfit for human consumption. Rivers are industrial sewers. Last year, 16,000 swollen and rotting dead pigs were found dumped in the Huangpu River near Shanghai.

What looks to be the impacts of climate change are starting to register too. Droughts have become longer and more frequent, forcing China to import ever-increasing amounts of staples like wheat and soy. By one count, 28,000 rivers in China have vanished. China’s southern provinces have the opposite problem: devastating floods as a result of intense rainfall. In addition, much of the coastline, including cities like Shanghai, are highly vulnerable to sea-level rise.

Chinese leaders know this trajectory is unsustainable – economically and politically. Earlier this year, Premier Li Keqiang “declared war” on pollution. Party leaders in China now routinely talk about the importance of “rebalancing the economy” and creating an “ecological civilization.” China Daily, the Communist Party house organ, regularly runs stories about air pollution and toxic waste. While I was in Beijing, I asked U.S. Ambassador to China Max Baucus why the Chinese were now willing to talk so openly about environmental issues. “The fragility of their government,” he said bluntly. “They will have a social revolt on their hands if they don’t come up with a way of dealing with this.”

Pollution from coal plants

Pollution from coal plants has helped make China the larges carbon-emitter on the planet. (Photo: © Imaginechina/Corbis)

So a big push for clean energy makes a lot of sense. In fact, you could easily argue that China has already done far more than the U.S. to transform its energy supply: Including hydropower, renewables now make up 20 percent of the energy mix (compared to 13 percent in the U.S.), a share targeted to double by 2030. China is the largest producer of wind and solar power on the planet. In 2013, nearly 60 percent of new-power generation was renewable. They also have 28 new nuclear plants under construction, more than any other country. Policywise, Chinese leaders have also been innovative. In the U.S., neither a carbon tax nor a cap-and-trade system to put a price on carbon pollution is under serious consideration; in contrast, China’s carbon-trading program, which includes more than 2,000 pollution sources, is the second-largest trading system in the world (after the EU’s). “If China is successful in using market forces to cap carbon and transform its economy, that may be the best shot we have to limit climate change,” says Dan Dudek, vice president of the Environmental Defense Fund.

The problem for China, in a word, is coal: About 70 percent of the country’s electrical power comes from burning dirty rocks. The Chinese consumed nearly 4 billion tons in 2012, almost as much as the rest of the world combined. Like the oil industry in the U.S., the coal industry has enormous sway in China, making it all the more difficult to kick the habit. But as the rising power of the 21st century, China is under enormous political pressure to behave responsibly, lest it be seen as a pariah like Russia. “The choices that Chinese leaders make in the next decade will be absolutely pivotal to solving the climate crisis,” says former Vice President Al Gore. And for China’s economic and social stability, the consequences couldn’t be higher. “Politically, it’s very difficult to be fingered as the one most responsible for a looming catastrophe,” Gore continues. Or, as Harvard’s Stavins says, “If it’s your century, you don’t obstruct – you lead.”

In the decade or so after 9/11, when U.S. foreign policy revolved around hunting down and killing Islamic terrorists, we didn’t make China a priority. Then in 2011, the Obama administration announced an “Asia pivot” in U.S. foreign policy to counter China’s rising influence. Among other things, the U.S. increased its military presence and surveillance missions in the region, stoking suspicion in China that one of the goals of U.S. foreign policy is to “contain” China – both economically and militarily (if it were, the U.S. was certainly not going to admit it).

China’s response only seemed to play into our fears. China had been investing in new long-range missiles, upgrading its navy, and began using its new muscle­ to claim disputed territory in the South China Sea. China has been playing more subtle games, too: blocking access to Google and The New York Times, and having hackers raid computers at a number of U.S. corporations, stealing trade secrets. Foreign-policy journals openly speculate about the possibility of war with China, a suggestion that U.S. officials dismiss as absurd. “If there is a war between the U.S. and China,” argues Cheng Li, director of the China program at the Brookings Institution, “it will not be over economics or security, it will be because of misjudgment and misunderstanding.”

Of course, even the most rabid warmongers realize that a war between the U.S. and China would be disastrous. That’s one reason why leaders on both sides are looking for common ground – and two of the biggest shared interests are climate and energy. “In a relationship fraught with tension, these are places where we can do business,” says Obama’s adviser Podesta.

On the flight to Beijing, there is a lot of talk about what that common ground between the U.S. and China might look like. Granted, climate catastrophe is bad for everyone. But what leverage does the U.S. really have over China? On a practical level, the Chinese would like access to American technology. (“The deal here is that the U.S. will let you buy lots of energy equipment at exorbitant prices,” jokes one journalist on the flight.) But the Chinese also understand that, given the GOP-held Congress, Obama doesn’t have the power to make any big future commitments to cut carbon pollution – and so why should they?

On a more human level, there’s also a lot of nervousness about China’s notorious difficulty as a negotiating partner. “China has a very top-down culture – you have to speak to people right at the top,” one of Kerry’s top advisers tells me. “And they are very motivated on climate, due to air-pollution issues. But it’s hard to get China to do hard things, in part because, unlike other Asian countries, doing things for the greater good is not a big motivation for them.”

The mismatch between the urgency of taking action and the self-destructive diddling of diplomacy is frightening to witness. A few weeks before heading to China with Kerry, I attended a UNFCCC climate conference in Bonn, Germany. The two-week-long meeting, one of several designed to begin mapping out an agreement for Paris next year, was held in the gray, bureaucratic-feeling Maritim Hotel near the banks of the Rhine and attended by nearly 2,000 delegates from more than 180 countries. But neither John Kerry nor Todd Stern was anywhere to be found; the U.S. delegation was headed by Trigg Talley, an affable white-haired man who is one of Stern’s deputies. If Bonn was a preview of how things will go next year in Paris, then you can kiss human civilization goodbye. Because nothing will get done. And if it appears that something might get done, you can be sure that somebody – most likely the Saudis, who are infamous for their ability to throw a monkey wrench into negotiations at the last minute – will do everything they can to derail it.

The sheer tedium of the discussions is difficult to capture, but let me try: During the plenary session on the final day, which was held in a conference room the size of a football field and was supposed to be where important breakthroughs were announced, I listened for hours to delegates from Singapore discuss the kind of formatting that should be used on the proposal and to delegates from Bolivia argue that bullet points should be used, not paragraph breaks. I never heard the words “carbon” or “greenhouse gas” in the entire session (although “adaptation” got tossed around a lot). The most memorable words were spoken by a delegate from South Africa: “We are sheep in need of herding.”

In Bonn, the stench of nearly 25 years of broken promises and failed agreements was palpable. The U.S. was viewed with particular skepticism and disdain, not just because the U.S. signed but then failed to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, but because until this administration, American presidents and congressional leaders never did anything intentional to substantively curb carbon pollution, despite the obvious impacts it would have on poorer nations. “You talk a lot, but you are not sincere,” one Turkish delegate sniffed to me. Trust in U.S. negotiators had been further undermined when documents made public by WikiLeaks and Edward Snowden revealed that the U.S. had been spying on negotiators from other countries before and during Copenhagen, trying to gain intelligence on their positions. The revelations were particularly damning given the good-faith nature of climate negotiations. “After almost 30 years of this kind of thing,” one longtime participant in these talks puts it, “what measure of trust can possibly exist? How do you strike a deal on issues that are central to your country’s survival with someone you think is out to screw you?”

Issues of trust aside, several things are immediately apparent to me in Bonn about the content and design of the agreement that is likely to emerge in Paris next year. One is that it is going to disappoint and anger a lot of people, particularly those who think the job of a climate treaty is to force big polluters to change their ways. The Paris agreement will largely be a “bottom up” treaty, in which each country will put forward a “contribution” for what each is willing to do to reduce carbon pollution. Those contributions will then be reviewed in the future – exactly how and by whom isn’t clear – to make sure each nation is keeping its promise. There will be no legally binding caps on emissions, no mandated “targets” that countries need to reach. In fact, it will not be a treaty at all (a treaty would need to be ratified by the U.S. Senate, which everyone knows will never happen). It will likely be an agreement “with legal force,” which means, basically, that some parts of the agreement might be legally binding in some countries.

However toothless this approach might seem, there is logic behind it. Since Kyoto, international climate efforts have largely failed because they were too prescriptive. Few nations were willing to bow to the demands of an international carbon police. And beyond that, there was no way to enforce carbon limits.

But even if the talks succeed in creating a sustainable basis for international cooperation, whatever emerges from Paris next year is extremely unlikely to put the world on a path that would limit warming to below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F), which was enshrined in the Copenhagen Accord as the threshold for dangerous climate change. For that to happen, says the Tyndall Centre’s Kevin Anderson, “global emissions from energy need to reach a peak by around 2020, and then rapidly reduce to zero by 2050 at the latest.” “I’m not giving up hope,” Kerry told me. “Physically, it’s possible. But politically, it will be very difficult.” Podesta is even more blunt. “If we wait until we have a binding international agreement that actually puts us on track for 2 C,” he says, “we’ll hit 2 C before we get an agreement. But we have to get started if we hope to get to the destination.”

The second revelation is that the Paris agreement is likely to be more about money than about carbon. That is not inappropriate: Climate change is, at its base, an environmental-justice issue, in which the rich nations of the world are inflicting damage on the poor ones. One question that has always haunted climate agreements is, how should the victims be compensated? In past U.N. agreements, developed countries have promised aid to poorer nations. But in translating these general commitments into hard numbers, says Elliot Diringer, a climate-policy expert at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, “the cash flows really have never been enough.”

In Paris, they will try again. The delivery vehicle of choice is called the Green Climate Fund, which was one of the few concrete accomplishments to come out of Copenhagen. The idea is simple: Rich countries pay into the fund, the fund’s 24-member board examines proposals from developing countries for clean-energy and climate-adaptation projects, and then it awards funds to those it finds worthy.

The Green Climate Fund was born in the closing days of the Copenhagen negotiations, when then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton tried to lure China and other developing nations into a deal by promising that, in exchange for agreeing to a binding cap on carbon pollution as well as outside monitoring and verification of pollution rates, rich nations like the U.S. would pledge a combined $100 billion a year to help poor nations. Many negotiators thought it was a clever (or not so clever) ploy by the U.S. to make China take the fall for the collapse of the Copenhagen deal, since it was clear that China considers emissions data a state secret and would never allow outsiders to pore through the books. But regardless of the intentions, the deal fell apart. The $100 billion promise lingered, however, and was codified in later agreements. (Although $100 billion sounds like a lot, it’s a small part of the $1 trillion a year that will be necessary to transform the energy system.)

Right now, developed nations have a long way to go to live up to Clinton’s promise. The Green Climate Fund has taken four years to get up and running, and still nobody knows if it will primarily make loans or grants. So far, only Germany has come through with a meaningful pledge, offering $1 billion over the next nine years. Stern says the U.S. is putting “a lot of blood, sweat and tears” into getting the fund set up right, and that the $100 billion a year will come from a variety of sources, including private investment. But if the point of the fund is to demonstrate the commitment of rich nations to help the poor, it will need them to make real financial commitments. “Big new public funds are not viable,” says David Victor, a climate-policy expert at the University of California, San Diego. “This could be a train wreck of false expectations.”

In Bonn, the biggest question on many negotiator’s minds was, “Will China step up?” Despite the fact that China is the biggest carbon emitter on the planet, with the most dynamic economy in the world, the Chinese remain wedded to a 25-year-old idea that China is still a developing country, in the same category as, say, Uganda, and therefore not responsible for taking action. At least, not until the U.S. and the EU – which, with their cumulative emissions, have essentially caused the problem of global warming – take the first step. Among negotiators, China’s stance is widely viewed as a negotiating tactic to lower expectations for action and to allow it to play moral defender for other developing nations, some of whom fear that if China makes a big move, it will increase the pressure on them to do the same.

I got a preview of the kind of arguments U.S. negotiators will face when I bumped into Zou Ji, the deputy director general for the National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation and a key member of the Chinese negotiating team, in the lobby of the Maritim Hotel. I asked him if the recent action by Obama to limit pollution from power plants and increase fuel-efficiency standards had changed the dynamics in the negotiations. “It is a good thing,” Ji told me. “But now, America says to us, ‘Your turn to step up.’ Well, we welcome what you have done, but we want to see more action from the U.S. first. It is very clear that Congress is a big constraint for you; Obama can only do what he can do.” Ji argues, accurately, that the U.S. is still the far richer country, and while China’s carbon emissions are enormous, if you break it down to per-capita emissions, the average American is responsible for dumping almost three times as much CO2 into the atmosphere every year as the average Chinese.

I point out to him that this is true, but that cumulative emissions in China will soon dwarf those in the United States.

“China needs to do its part, but right now the U.S. still has huge potential to do more,” he says forcefully. “I have lived in the U.S., where everyone has a clothes dryer and an air conditioner and a big refrigerator and a big house and a big car. In the EU and Japan, they also live well, but people there only consume half the energy Americans do. You do have the capacity to live at the same standard and consume far less – if you choose.”

When Kerry’s plane lands in Beijing, we immediately jump into a line of SUVs and are whisked away to the Great Wall just north of the city for what one State Department staffer calls “a little cultural sightseeing.” When I visited the wall a few years ago, the air pollution was so bad, I could hardly see 15 feet in front of me; today, it’s clear enough to see the Xishan Mountains, which are 12 miles away at the western edge of the city. Kerry strolls along the wall with Chinese dignitaries, then we motorcade to the Marriott hotel in central Beijing, where the U.S. government has taken over two floors. Security is high: The entrance to the hotel is blocked, and armed agents are everywhere. The biggest concern seems to be Chinese spies; on an earlier trip to China, five members of Todd Stern’s team received spoof e-mails that contained a bot that could have given a hacker control of their computers, and shortly after I check into my hotel, I am told that I can assume my room is bugged and my e-mail is read. Across the street from the hotel is an Apple Store, Gucci, Hermès and, strangely, a coal-fired power plant with clouds and a blue sky painted on the sides, as if to disguise the dirty black rocks burning within.

The next morning, Chinese President Xi Jinping opens the talks at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, an elegant retreat in western Beijing. His address to 500 or so American and Chinese dignitaries isn’t exactly a rousing call to action on climate change. Instead, he talks about the importance of keeping the Chinese economy humming, declaring that China needs a peaceful and stable environment “more than ever.” Xi is a tough-looking guy with a Tony Soprano vibe, and his speech leaves no doubt that he sees China as the rising power. “It is natural that China and the U.S. may have different views, and even frictions, on certain issues,” he says. Then he adds, “Confrontation between China and the United States would definitely spell disaster for the two countries and for the wider world.” Xi only mentions climate change once, in a passing reference to it as a significant challenge that both nations face.

Protestors take to the streets in China

Protestors take to the streets to fight construction of a chemical factory in May 2013. (Photo: AFP/Getty Images)

Xi, who came to power in 2013, is “a very strong leader for China,” says Cheng Li of the Brookings Institution. Li contrasts him with other recent Chinese leaders, most of whom tended to be pale figures who dutifully rose through the ranks of the Communist Party. Xi, who is 61, rules with authority and efficiency. He grew up the son of a deputy prime minister and revolutionary who was known as an architect of China’s special economic zones, which were important drivers in the liberalization of China. As president, Xi has cracked down on corruption and is a fierce defender of Chinese interests in disputed territories like the South China Sea. He has also toughened up China’s internal security forces (China spends more on domestic security than it does on national defense). But U.S. officials who have had close contact with Xi are impressed by his directness. One White House staffer pointed to a recent agreement to reduce hydrofluorocarbons, a potent greenhouse gas, that Xi worked out with Obama last year. “Xi rolled the Chinese bureaucracy to get that done,” the staffer says. Kerry also sees him as an effective leader. “I had long conversations with Xi while I was chair of the Foreign Relations Committee,” he tells me. “The kind of action we’ve seen in China recently doesn’t happen without his personal commitment.”

When Kerry takes the podium after Xi steps down, he is conciliatory. He reassures Xi and other Chinese leaders in the room that the U.S. does not seek to “contain” China, and that it welcomes the emergence of “a peaceful, prosperous China that . . . chooses to play a responsible role in world affairs.” He, too, talks a lot about economic growth and how “the true measure of our success will not be just whether our countries grow, but how our countries grow.” Kerry continues, “Step by step, we are shifting our focus . . . to the inescapable reality of a clean-energy future.”

When Kerry travels to countries where the U.S. might be perceived to have the upper hand, he can be very blunt about the potential ravages of climate change. A few months ago, in a speech in Jakarta, Indonesia, he called it the “world’s most fearsome” weapon of mass destruction. But Kerry doesn’t say a word here about melting ice caps, rising seas or weapons of mass destruction. Instead, he talks about how clean energy is “the biggest market the world has ever seen.” He talks investment flows, technology sharing and pollution-free prosperity. “Our goal,” Podesta tells me, “is to create a virtuous circle in the Pacific, where they match our ambition, and then we match theirs.”

For the U.S., pushing for action is imperative: If China makes an aggressive move on carbon, it kills a favorite political talking point from climate deniers in Congress. “I can’t tell you how many meetings I’ve sat in where the subject of ‘What is China doing?’ comes up,” says Podesta. “For us, it’s important that we take that objection off the table.”

For the Chinese, beyond the obvious motivation to clean up the air, the question is what they want from the U.S. in return. As Kerry put it to me later, “The Chinese have a lot of stuff they want from us. We have natural gas. We have coal. We have clean-energy technology.” How this bargaining works out is the heart of the negotiations and gets into complex areas like protection of intellectual property rights. In the past, the Chinese simply wanted to buy our technology, copy it and manufacture it more cheaply than anyone else. “But that dynamic has changed,” says one Department of Energy official. “Now the deals are much more about joint ventures and shared investment.”

Later in the day, top members of the U.S. and China delegations meet in a conference room on the second floor for the Joint Session on Climate Change and Clean Energy. It is a stiffly formal scene, with Kerry, Podesta, Stern, U.S. Energy Secretary Moniz and science adviser John Holdren on one side of a long mahogany table, and Chinese leaders, including Vice Premier Wang Yang and lead climate negotiator Xie Zhenhua, on the other side. In this more intimate group, the Chinese are much blunter and more forthright about the risks of climate change. But it isn’t clear if this is because they feel more relaxed or because they are more willing to say what the U.S. wants to hear. State Councilor Yang, who opens the discussion, calls climate change “a common and grave challenge to mankind.” He talks about actions the Chinese government has taken to promote clean energy and efficiency, and he underscores China’s support of the UNFCCC climate negotiations. “We have also maintained close dialogue in consultation on [the U.S.’s and China’s] respective climate-change policies,” he says.

Kerry nods politely and then reads from prepared remarks: “Every one of us in this room is well aware that the climate crisis is one that respects no border. It’s transboundary. It affects the planet.”

The Chinese leaders listen carefully, just as the American team listened carefully to Yang’s remarks, attuned to nuances and gestures that gain trust or lose it, that show respect or haughtiness. And yet, I get the strong sense at this meeting, and at every other one I’ve attended, that 15 levels of chess are being played, that the motives and impulses of each side remain unknowable to the other, and that both sides are making calculations that will shape their careers, their economies and the future of the planet. And always the fear – expressed in the glint of an eye, a moment of hesitation – that each is being played. The Chinese worry that the U.S. won’t keep their word or has a secret plan to thwart their economic growth; the Americans worry that the Chinese are using shady data, and that they are only in it for the money.

Sometimes, the enormous gap between how the Chinese run their country and how the Americans run theirs reveals itself. One of those moments occurs on the second day of the talks in the Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square, which is China’s parliamentary chamber. Kerry and Yang appear at a press conference to bestow six “EcoPartnership” awards to American and Chinese organizations that are collaborating on clean-energy and climate solutions. In the context of the talks, it is a small-bore event, with a handful of dignitaries and some Chinese press.

But maybe because of this, Kerry’s remarks at the event are looser and less diplomatic than anything I’ve heard him say earlier. They are also more dangerous politically, because he talks about the one thing the Chinese leadership is most afraid of: the power of social activism. He describes how, in 1970, after 20 million Americans attended Earth Day rallies, public outrage led to the creation of the Environmental Protection Agency, as well as the passage of the Clean Air Act and, later, the Clean Water Act. “So I have seen the power of grassroots action, of local efforts becoming magnified and ultimately creating action at a larger, federal level,” Kerry says, his voice rising. “And I see that same kind of drive, that same kernel of innovation, and of demand for a difference, right here [in China], today.”

Kerry’s larger point is undoubtedly true – there is a rising consciousness of environmental issues in China, a sense that civilized societies don’t let their rivers catch fire. But as Kerry knows very well, there will be no organized demonstrations of millions of people marching on the streets in China, demanding change. If they tried, they would likely be tear-gassed or thrown in jail. Activism, such as it is in China, is either well-behaved and sanctioned by the state, or it is deemed reckless and dangerous and quickly shut down.

After his remarks at the Great Hall of the People, Kerry gets polite applause and then sits down to listen to a boilerplate speech from Yang. If anyone noticed that the secretary of state of the United States had just suggested that a populist movement in the People’s Republic of China could challenge the status quo, it wasn’t apparent.

One person who understands the dangers of social activism as well as anyone is Shuo Li, 27, a climate-policy officer for Greenpeace East Asia. Shortly after Kerry’s talk, I visited Li at Greenpeace’s office in Beijing. A year earlier, Greenpeace had published an investigation into the development of a coal-to-liquids plant in Inner Mongolia. Transforming coal into liquid fuels like diesel (or, in a similar process, natural gas) is expensive and, more importantly, an environmental disaster. Compared with typical refining processes, coal liquefaction produces 14 times the amount of carbon dioxide.

What’s interesting about Greenpeace’s investigation is that it targeted the owner of the plant, Shenhua Group, which is China’s biggest coal producer and a political powerhouse. (“Shenhua is the monster,” Li says.) In the U.S., enviros go after big companies all the time. But in China, this kind of action is unprecedented. As was its effectiveness. Li says the company called in Greenpeace, and Shenhua agreed to quit pumping out groundwater for use in the plant.

I ask Li if this is a sign that Chinese leaders are becoming more tolerant of environmental activism?

“Maybe a little,” Li says. He explains that unlike, say, publicly celebrating the Dalai Lama or arguing for the ethical treatment of the Uighur minority in China, it’s OK to raise questions about environmental problems. “But you have to do it the right way. You can go after local officials or individual power plants.” But, as he points out, there is no clear line between what is acceptable and what is not. “That is something everyone has to discover for themselves,” he says. He adds with a sly smile: “For the government, it is more effective that way.”

But Li knows he’s treading dangerous ground. In 2012, a 65-year-old former forestry official was threatened with five years in prison for publishing and distributing books that questioned the overdevelopment of Hainan Island in southern China. (He received a three-year suspended sentence and a fine.) Two years earlier, one of Beijing’s most respected science reporters, Fang Xuanchang, who earned a reputation for calling bullshit on many government-funded research projects, was brutally beaten on his way home from work. His assailants were never found. The message, as one journalist wrote in Foreign Policy, was clear: “Don’t go there, or you could be next.”

I asked about the rising number of protests around the country against industrial plants found to be dumping chemicals­ into rivers, or protesters throwing bricks at police to halt the construction of a new power plant. “Individual NIMBY actions are acceptable,” Li says. “But when you try to mobilize people on a larger scale, that is when you get in trouble.”

“Trouble, how?”

“You don’t even want to think about it,” Li answers, fear flashing in his eyes.

The rise of China, which was driven by the biggest and fastest industrial revolution the world has ever seen, was fueled almost entirely by coal. And its continued success – not to mention, in many ways, the fate of human civilization – depends on how quickly it can wean itself off this cheap, dirty, abundant fossil fuel. “The big question,” Moniz told me in Beijing, “is how fast they can bend down the curve of coal.”

“Bending down the curve of coal” is geek-speak for reducing dependency on coal. Because coal – by far the most carbon­intensive fossil fuel – will most likely be replaced by cleaner energy sources; in that case, the moment China’s coal consumption plateaus will also be the moment their greenhouse-gas pollution plateaus. And that could be the moment the world begins a transition toward a stable climate.

But the question is: When will that moment occur? In China, this question will not be answered by the invisible hand of the market but, ultimately, by the strong hand of President Xi and other party leaders. Xi and his advisers will make a complex economic and political calculation about how far they want to push clean energy – and whether they want to encourage a shift away from coal by, say, expanding the existing carbon-trading market, passing a straightforward tax on carbon, or simply issuing a dictum that caps the amount of coal the nation can consume. A few weeks before my conversation with Moniz, a respected Chinese academic had speculated that China would cap coal consumption by 2030. “That would be a big step in the right direction,” Gore told me. But as Gore well knows, unless that cap is followed by a radical and almost unimaginable global shift toward zero-carbon energy, it’s not a big enough step to avert climate chaos in the coming decades.

China has already taken a number of measures to move away from coal. It is reportedly closing down 50,000 small coal-fired furnaces and has essentially stopped building new coal plants in big eastern cities like Beijing and Shanghai. In 2020, burning coal will be banned in Beijing. But given the enormity of China’s coal addiction, these are just baby steps compared to what is needed.

And that’s one reason why the Chinese are very interested in natural gas. Natural gas has about half the carbon of coal, and burning it creates much less air pollution. China has the biggest shale-gas reserves in the world and would dearly like to unleash an American-style fracking boom (which is its own kind of environmental nightmare, of course). But the technology used to extract the gas from shale, which was invented in the U.S., is complex and not easy to replicate. In addition, shale gas in China is more deeply buried than in the U.S., and the soil is less porous, making the gas more difficult to extract. And thanks to methane leaks during fracking operations (methane, the principal component of natural gas, is a short-lived but potent greenhouse gas), the climate benefits of natural gas are questionable.

Imagining a fracked-out China is not pretty, but it might beat the alternative – making natural gas out of coal. The process is similar to the coal-to-liquids plant in Inner Mongolia that Greenpeace singled out, and like that process, it is both water- and carbon-intensive. China already has two coal-to-gas plants in operation, with as many as 48 more on the drawing board. Most of them are slated to be built in western China, far from population centers, where Chinese leaders are eager to spur development and provide jobs. But the cost to the atmosphere will be enormous. If all of these plants get built, they will collectively emit more than a billion tons of CO2 each year – more than the entire nation of Germany emitted last year.

Moniz calls coal-to-gas plants in western China “a major issue” for Chinese and U.S. negotiators. “Burning natural gas may help them solve the problem of air pollution,” says Moniz. “But if they get it by manufacturing it from coal, they will be creating another, much larger problem.” And it’s one that impacts everyone on the planet.

The talks ended on a hot, humid afternoon in the Zhongnanhai compound in central Beijing, which houses offices for the Politburo’s most senior members. The compound, which is heavily guarded and closed to the public, is a reminder of China’s Imperial era, with a collection of traditional pavilions scattered around three lovely lakes. Kerry met with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in the Purple Light Pavilion, a brightly painted pagoda-style building with small porcelain animals on the corners of the roof. Li has none of the bluster – or power – of President Xi, and after exchanging greetings and thank-yous, Kerry seemed eager to hit the road. They spoke in private for a half-hour, then Kerry climbed back into his SUV, and we motorcaded back to the Marriott for a final press conference.

Within minutes, the State Department was e-mailing a list of accomplishments to reporters, including joint U.S.-China demonstration projects on smart grids, technology to capture carbon from coal plants, and new initiatives on forestry and industrial boilers. It was all both important and unimportant, small steps in a long, long march. Later, Kerry would tell me he was impressed by what he’d seen from the Chinese on climate during the trip – “There was no backsliding,” he says. Others on the U.S. team described their sense that key Chinese leaders they’d met were “extraordinarily forward-leaning.”

But huge questions still loom about how far the U.S. and China and every other big polluter on the planet will go to cut emissions. For negotiators who are pushing for a tough agreement with meaningful reductions and clear financial accounting, the biggest fear is not that the U.S. and China won’t agree on key issues, but that they will agree on too much: “We are afraid that the U.S. and China will strike a bargain that makes them both comfortable, but does little or nothing to reduce the risk of climate change,” says Mohamed Adow, senior adviser for Christian Aid, a U.K.-based relief agency that works in many developing nations. “Then the rest of the world will have to decide if they want to go along, or fight for a stronger agreement.”

A few hours later, Kerry and his team jet off to Afghanistan. The world is a big, complicated place, and everyone – even the most committed climate warriors like Kerry – has a lot of other things to think about beyond how much carbon we are dumping into the atmosphere. And that, in a way, is always the problem: There is always something more urgent, more immediately catastrophic to seize the attention of policymakers – and in the coming years, many of the crises that will distract us from dealing with the realities of climate change will largely have been caused by climate change. Through all these short-term emergencies, the Earth will keep warming, the droughts will get worse, food will grow scarce, ice will vanish, the seas will rise, and starting around 2030, climate change will emerge from the background and eventually become the only thing we talk about. It will be the story of the century.

When we get to the Marriott, I walk across the sleek marble lobby with Podesta, who looks uncharacteristically somber. Just before we step into Kerry’s press conference – where he will again underscore the importance of taking action on climate change – I ask Podesta if two days of talks with the Chinese have made him feel more hopeful about Paris next year.

“Yes,” he says. “But it’s going to be a hard road.”

From The Archives Issue 1218: September 25, 2014

Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/china-the-climate-and-the-fate-of-the-planet-20140915#ixzz3Dckfhurq
Follow us: @rollingstone on Twitter | RollingStone on Facebook

The silence on climate change is deafening. It’s time for us to get loud (The Guardian)

In Dr Seuss’s parable, it take all of Whoville to make enough noise to save their planet. How much will it take to save ours?

theguardian.com, Wednesday 17 September 2014 16.43 BST

horton hears a who

If Horton could hear a Who, there’s no reason the rest of us can’t hear the warnings about climate change. Photograph: c. 20th Century Fox / Everett / Rex Features

All of Dr Seuss’s children’s books – or, at least, the best ones – are sly, radical humanitarian and environmental parables. That’s why, for example, The Lorax was banned in some Pacific Northwest districts where logging was the chief economy.

Or there’s Horton Hears a Who: if you weren’t a child (or reading to a child) recently, it’s about an elephant with acute hearing who hears a cry from a dust speck. He comes to realize the dust speck is a planet in need of protection, and does his best for it.

Of course, all the other creatures mock – and then threaten – Horton for raising an alarm over something they can’t see. (Dissent is an easy way to get yourself ostracized or worse, as any feminist receiving online death threats can remind you.) And though Seuss was reportedly inspired by the situation in post-war Japan when he wrote the book, but its parable is flexible enough for our time.

You could call the scientists and the climate activists of our present moment our Hortons. They heard the cry a long time ago, and they’ve been trying to get the rest of the world to listen. They’ve had to endure attacks, mockery, and lip service … but mostly just obliviousness to what they’re saying and what it demands of us.

Recent polling data suggests most of us do want to see things change. “Two in three Americans (66%) support the Congress and president passing laws to increase energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy as a way to reduce America’s dependence on fossil fuels,” reports the US Climate Action Network. But I hear firsthand from people who aren’t particularly informed and still tell me that they are avoiding thinking about climate because it’s too late.

It is nearly too late, because we’ve know about climate change for 25 years, but the most informed scientists think that we do have a chance and some choices, if we make them now.

To listen to such scientists is an amazing and sometimes terrifying thing: they fully comprehend what systemic collapse means and where we are in that process. They – and others who pay attention to the data – see how terrible the possibilities are, but they also see the possibilities for averting the worst.

Seuss’s Horton was alone. Climate activists in the United States are a minority, but there are vast numbers of people across the world who know how serious the situation is, who are facing it and who are listening and asking for action. Some of them will be with us when the biggest climate march in history takes place on Sunday in New York City – starting on the southern edge one of the nation’s largest urban green spaces, Central Park, running around Times Square and then moving west to the Hudson River – to demand that the UN get serious with this attempt to hammer out a climate change treaty at its summit next week.

A whole lot more people are going to come together to demand that our political leaders do something about climate than have done so before. In a symbolic action, at 12:58pm local time, they will observe a collective couple of minutes of silence dedicated to the past. Wherever you are on Sunday, you can join us in observing that silence and remembering the millions displaced last year by the kinds of floods and storms that climate change augments, or the residents of island nations whose homes are simply disappearing under the waves; the small shellfish whose shells are dissolving or the species that have died out altogether; the elderly and inform who have died in our longer, hotter heatwaves or the people who died in New York’s Hurricane Sandy not quite two years ago.

At 1pm local time, we will face the future, and demand that our leaders face the music. The marchers will make two minutes of noise, and every pot-banger, church-bell-ringer, hornblower and drummer on earth is invited to join in. Churches are invited to ring their bells; synagogues to blow their shofars; mosques to use their loudspeakers; secular humanists to get their brass bands on. Get your own pots and pans, or your trumpets and whistles.

We needed someone to ring the alarm all these decades of inaction. On Sunday don’t wait to hear it from someone else: make some noise yourself. It’s time to start making the future we hope for instead of waiting for the one we fear.

I wish that I could write a pat ending for the story of how we saved the earth, but that is, so to speak, all up in the air right now.

But at the end of Horton Hears a Who, the small people of Whoville decide to make a huge roar so that everyone else could hear them: they all roar and bang and blast, but it takes a boy named Jojo (playing with his yoyo) to add his yapping voice to the roar for them to become audible.

This is our planet: our little blue sphere in the Orion Spur of the Milky Way Galaxy, with the beautifully elaborate systems of birds and insects and weather and flowering plants all working together – or that used to work together, and which are now falling apart. And it’s your voice that’s needed, so raise it on Sunday. Join the roar, so that everyone who wasn’t listening finally has to hear.

• This article was updated on 17 September 2014 to reflect that the the New York City Police Department only granted the People’s Climate March permission to march to Sixth Avenue, and not all the way to the United Nations building on First Avenue.

Brasil precisa ter sistema de monitoramento a longo prazo sobre mudanças climáticas, diz secretário (MCTI)

quarta-feira, 17 de setembro de 2014

Para Carlos Nobre, é central o país ter um conhecimento muito apurado do impacto das mudanças climáticas sobre a economia, a sociedade e o ambiente 

O secretário de Políticas e Programas de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento do Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (Seped/MCTI), Carlos Nobre, abriu nesta terça-feira (16) o workshop internacional Desafios para o Monitoramento e a Observação dos Impactos de Mudanças Climáticas, na Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (Capes), em Brasília.

Ação do projeto Diálogos Setoriais entre Brasil e União Europeia, com organização do MCTI e apoio da Embaixada Britânica, o encontro segue até amanhã (17), em busca de identificar desafios e elaborar recomendações para observar impactos de mudanças climáticas, além de induzir a formação de uma rede de pesquisadores e gestores que possa compartilhar conhecimento e contribuir para a estruturação de um sistema brasileiro de monitoramento.

“Consideramos central para o planejamento e as estratégias de desenvolvimento sustentável do Brasil nós termos um conhecimento muito apurado sobre como as mudanças climáticas estão impactando e irão impactar a economia, a sociedade e o ambiente, com ênfase na nossa imensa biodiversidade”, afirmou Nobre. “Nesse sentido, o MCTI, já há alguns anos, começou um projeto, com fundos brasileiros, para desenvolver um conceito, uma ideia, um programa, para monitorar e observar esses impactos”.

Antecipação

Na visão do secretário, estruturar um sistema seria o passo seguinte a iniciativas como a Rede Brasileira de Pesquisas sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais (Rede Clima), estabelecida em 2008, após a publicação do 4º Relatório do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC, na sigla em inglês).

“A Rede Clima tem produzido uma série de resultados, muitos deles na direção de entender impactos”, disse Nobre. “A decorrência desse incipiente e novo conhecimento é ensejar o desenho de um sistema de longo prazo, de décadas de monitoramento, que nos permita nos anteciparmos, para que a sociedade não seja tomada de surpresa quando impactos de fato estiverem ocorrendo.”

O secretário lembrou que o 4º Relatório do IPCC apontou concentração na Europa, nos Estados Unidos e no Japão dos sítios observacionais com estudos de impactos das mudanças climáticas, com raros exemplos na América Latina.

“A situação mudou um pouco para melhor no 5º Relatório, divulgado neste ano, mas nenhum dos sítios apresentados localiza-se no Brasil”, comparou. “Isso já chamou a atenção, porque não temos observações sistêmicas de longo período sobre os impactos nos mais diversos setores de atividades econômicas”.

Para atingir o objetivo de contribuir para o futuro sistema, segundo Nobre, o workshop trouxe especialistas brasileiros e estrangeiros de diversos setores, como agricultura, biodiversidade, ecologia, energia, recursos hídricos, oceanos, saúde e zonas costeiras: “A discussão é muito relevante para o Brasil, porque grande parte do produto econômico do país tem a ver com recursos naturais”.

Origem

Nobre associou a complexidade do sistema à existência de vários motivos desencadeadores de mudanças climáticas. Ele citou três exemplos aplicados ao cenário nacional, divididos por origem antropogênica, local e global.

O primeiro caso diz respeito às savanas tropicais do Brasil Central, onde tradicionalmente há aumento considerável de incêndios de vegetação por ação humana de agosto a outubro, período de seca nessas regiões.

“Isso perturba muito o ambiente biológico do Cerrado, ou seja, os impactos são muito grandes na biodiversidade, mas a fumaça das queimadas também gera um grande problema de saúde pública”, alertou.

De acordo com o secretário, as chuvas na cidade de São Paulo estão entre 30% a 35% maiores, mais volumosas e mais intensas do que 100 anos atrás. “Essa é, principalmente, uma mudança climática de origem local, uma ilha urbana de calor, um impacto da urbanização”, explicou. “O atual cenário agrava a questão dos desastres naturais em uma região por onde transitam 20 milhões de pessoas”.

Acerca da origem global, Nobre cita o 5º Relatório do IPCC, publicado em 2013 e 2014. “O documento sugere, com forte embasamento científico, que a alternância de secas e inundações na Amazônia na última década já seria um resultado das mudanças climáticas globais”, disse. “Particularmente na região da floresta, nós já estamos vendo como detectar, medir e enxergar impactos, como desenhar sistemas que possam de forma precursora sinalizar grandes alterações, de modo que se permita ao setor público, e também aos setores econômicos, se precaverem e adotarem políticas de adaptação”.

Intercâmbio

Presente na abertura do workshop, a secretária de Gestão Pública do Ministério do Planejamento, Orçamento e Gestão (MPOG), Ana Lúcia Amorim, abordou o projeto Diálogos Setoriais, gerido pela pasta, que apoia a realização de estudos nas mais diversas áreas temáticas.

O diplomata português Rui Ludovino, diretor da Delegação da União Europeia no Brasil, lembrou que, desde 2007, o país é parceiro estratégico da Europa. “Temos um acordo de cooperação assinado entre as duas partes que engloba inúmeras áreas, da econômica à tecnológica, da ambiental à social”, observou.

Na opinião da diretora de Ciência e Inovação da Embaixada Britânica, Caroline Cowan, o Brasil inova ao propor a criação de uma rede de monitoramento e observação. “Até agora, não temos no mundo um sistema assim. Vamos ver como podemos trabalhar juntos para estabelecê-lo. Em adaptação a mudanças climáticas, já atuamos bastante com a União Europeia e o Brasil”.

Os debates do workshop devem gerar um documento de recomendações. Entre os palestrantes, estão pesquisadores dos institutos nacionais de Pesquisas Espaciais (Inpe/MCTI) e de Pesquisas da Amazônia (Inpa/MCTI), do Centro de Tecnologia da Informação Renato Archer (CTI/MCTI) e do Centro Comum de Pesquisa da Comissão Europeia (JRC, na sigla em inglês).

Cúpula do Clima da ONU: só teatro ou fatos concretos? (IPS)

17/9/2014 – 01h38

por Thalif Deen, da IPS

cumbreclima Cúpula do Clima da ONU: só teatro ou fatos concretos?

Nações Unidas, 17/9/2014 – A tão comentada Cúpula do Clima, que acontecerá no final deste mês, é apresentada como um dos grandes acontecimentos político-ambientais da Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU) para 2014. Seu secretário-geral, Ban Ki-moon, pediu aos mais de 120 governantes e empresários que participarão da cúpula de um único dia, 23 de setembro, que anunciem iniciativas significativas e substanciais, com promessas de fundos incluídas, “para ajudar o mundo a avançar por um caminho que limite o aquecimento global”.

Segundo a ONU, a cúpula será a primeira ocasião em cinco anos em que os líderes do mundo se reunirão para discutir o que se classifica de desastre ecológico: a mudança climática. Entre as repercussões negativas do aquecimento global estão a elevação do nível do mar, padrões climáticos extremos, acidificação dos oceanos, derretimento de geleiras, extinção de espécies da biodiversidade e ameaças à segurança alimentar mundial, alerta a organização.

Mas o que se pode esperar realmente da conferência deste mês, que provavelmente não durará mais do que 12 horas?

“Um acontecimento de um dia não poderá nunca resolver tudo o que se relaciona com a mudança climática, mas pode ser um ponto de inflexão para demonstrar renovada vontade política de agir”, opinou Timothy Gore, diretor de políticas e pesquisa da campanha Crecede Oxfam International. Alguns líderes políticos aproveitarão a ocasião para fazer isso, mas muitos “parecem decididos a se manterem afastados dos compromissos transformadores necessários”, acrescentou.

Segundo Gore, a cúpula foi pensada como uma plataforma para os novos compromissos de ação em matéria climática, mas existe o risco real de estes não serem grande coisa. “O enfoque colocado nas iniciativas voluntárias em lugar dos resultados negociados significa que não há garantias de que os anúncios que forem feitos na cúpula serão suficientemente sólidos”, acrescentou.

Espera-se que o Fundo Verde para o Clima mobilize cerca de US$ 100 bilhões anuais no Sul em desenvolvimento até 2020, segundo a ONU, mas este ainda não recebeu os fundos que serão entregues aos países em desenvolvimento para que possam implantar suas ações climáticas.

“No dia 23 de setembro veremos como os líderes mundiais não estão à altura do que necessitamos para lidar com a perigosa mudança climática”, apontou à IPS Dipti Bhatnagar, da Amigos da Terra Internacional e da Justiça Ambiental, de Moçambique. As “promessas” que os governos e as empresas farão na Cúpula do Clima serão extremamente insuficientes para abordar a catástrofe climática, ressaltou a ativista.

“A ideia de os governantes assumirem compromissos voluntários e não vinculantes é um insulto para centenas de milhares de pessoas que morrem a cada ano pelos impactos da mudança climática”, afirmou Bhatnagar. “Necessitamos que os países industrializados assumam objetivos de redução de emissões equitativos, ambiciosos e vinculantes, não um desfile de governantes que querem causar boa impressão. Mas este desfile falso é só o que vamos ver nesta cúpula de um dia”, opinou.

No dia 21, dois dias antes da cúpula, centenas de milhares de pessoas farão uma manifestação contra a mudança climática em cidades de todo o mundo. “Nesse dia, estaremos nas ruas de Nova York como parte da maior marcha climática na história, que enviará uma mensagem forte e clara para que os líderes mundiais ajam agora”, explicou Martin Kaiser, líder do projeto Política Climática Mundial, do Greenpeace.

Kaiser sugeriu que as empresas devem anunciar datas concretas a partir das quais operarão com 100% de energia renovável. Além disso, “os governos devem se comprometer a eliminar gradualmente os combustíveis fósseis até 2050 e tomar medidas concretas, como acabar com o financiamento das centrais elétricas movidas a carvão”, destacou. “Também esperamos que os governos anunciem dinheiro novo e adicional para o Fundo Verde para o Clima, a fim de ajudar os países vulneráveis a se adaptarem aos desastres climáticos”, afirmou.

“Precisamos que o Norte industrial entregue fundos públicos seguros, previsíveis e obrigatórios ao Sul em desenvolvimento por intermédio do sistema da ONU”, disse Bhatnagar, da Amigos da Terra Internacional. Os líderes dos países industrializados estão descuidando de sua responsabilidade para evitar as catástrofes climáticas, impulsionados pelos estreitos interesses econômicos e financeiros das elites ricas, da indústria dos combustíveis fósseis e das corporações transnacionais, acrescentou.

“O que se necessita para deter a mudança climática são objetivos de redução de emissões equitativos, ambiciosos e vinculantes dos países desenvolvidos, junto com a transferência de fundos e tecnologia aos países em desenvolvimento. Também precisamos de uma completa transformação de nossos sistemas de energia e alimentos”, enfatizou Bhatnagar.

Nesse sentido, é preciso maior transparência para decidir se os anúncios feitos são coerentes com as últimas conclusões científicas sobre o clima e se protegem os interesses dos mais vulneráveis diante dos impactos climáticos, detalhou Gore. Com relação ao papel do setor privado, “precisamos que os empresários combatem a mudança climática, e estão surgindo bons exemplos de empresas que estão à altura da ocasião”, acrescentou .

No setor de alimentos e bebidas, por exemplo, a Oxfam trabalhou com companhias como Kellogg e General Mills para que estas assumam compromissos de redução das emissões de suas cadeias de fornecimento agrícola, extremamente contaminantes. “Mas, em geral, essa cúpula mostra que há muitas partes do setor privado que ainda não estão à altura, já que as iniciativas que serão apresentadas não cumprem com a  transformação que precisamos”, destacou Gore.

“Isso serve para recordarmos a importância fundamental que tem a forte liderança governamental na mudança climática. As iniciativas voluntárias de baixo para cima não são um substituto da ação real do governo”, afirmou Gore. Envolverde/IPS

(IPS)

Climate Change News – September 16, 2014 (DISCCRS)

NEWS

UN says CO2 pollution levels at annual record high – Associated Press – September 9, 2014 – http://bigstory.ap.org/article/un-says-co2-pollution-levels-annual-record-high

Greenhouse Gas Pollution Sees Fastest Rise – ClimateWire (via Scientific American) – September 9, 2014 – http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/greenhouse-gas-pollution-sees-fastest-rise/

NASA Ranks This August as Warmest on Record – Climate Central – September 15, 2014 – http://www.climatecentral.org/news/nasa-globe-warmest-august-18031

Study finds warming Atlantic temperatures could increase range of invasive species – NOAA Press Release (via AAAS EurekAlert) – September 15, 2014 – http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2014-09/nh-sfw091214.php

Has the great climate change migration already begun? – Vital Signs (Guardian) – September 15, 2014 – http://www.theguardian.com/vital-signs/2014/sep/15/climate-change-refugees-un-storms-natural-disasters-sea-levels-environment

Grassroots pressure needed to beat climate change and poverty – experts – Thomson Reuters Foundation – September 12, 2014 – http://www.trust.org/item/20140912161513-2y17m/?source=fiOtherNews3

Princeton University launches NSF-funded initiative to study Southern Ocean’s role in global systems – NSF Press Release 14-117 – September 9, 2014 – http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=132638&WT.mc_id=USNSF_51&WT.mc_ev=click

Warmer air caused ice shelf collapse off Antarctica – Reuters – September 11, 2014 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/11/us-climatechange-antarctica-idUSKBN0H625T20140911

Illegal deforestation is growing problem for climate – Climate News Network – September 12, 2014 – http://www.climatenewsnetwork.net/2014/09/illegal-deforestation-is-growing-problem-for-climate/

Brazil confirms Amazon deforestation sped up in 2013 – Reuters – September 10, 2014 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/10/us-brazil-deforestation-rise-idUSKBN0H528V20140910

Climate Change Threatens Half of North America?s Birds – Climate Central – September 13, 2014 – http://www.climatecentral.org/news/north-americas-birds-climate-change-18023

Ozone Layer on Track to Recovery – United Nations Environment Programme/World Meteorological Organization Press Release – September 10, 2014 – http://montreal-protocol.org/Assessment_Panels/SAP/SAP2014_ADM_Press_Release_10-Sept-2014.pdf

FORUM

Water management in Iran: what is causing the looming crisis? – Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences (via Springer) – August 23, 2014 – By Kaveh Madani – http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs13412-014-0182-z

Moral Collapse in a Warming World – Ethics & International Affairs, 28, no. 3 (2014), pp. 335-342 – By Clive Hamilton – http://journals.cambridge.org/download.php?file=%2FEIA%2FEIA28_03%2FS0892679414000409a.pdf&code=f0a65c732192dd3bbb451e4f5abcf862

The 97% v the 3% ? just how much global warming are humans causing? – Climate Consensus – the 97% blog (Guardian) – September 15, 2014 – By Dana Nuccitelli – http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/sep/15/97-vs-3-how-much-global-warming-are-humans-causing

UN Climate Summit must show climate change action is in everyone’s interests – Guardian Professional – September 11, 2014 – By Simon Zadek and Nick Robins – http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2014/sep/11/un-climate-summit-climate-change-interests-business-governments-finance

The Guardian view on the unchanging message from climate scientists – Guardian Editorial – September 14, 2014 – http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/14/guardian-view-unchanging-message-climate-scientists

Can Humans Get Used to Having a Two-Way Relationship with Earth?s Climate? – Dot Earth blog (New York Times) – September 10, 2014 – By Andrew Revkin – http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/09/10/can-humans-get-used-to-having-a-two-way-relationship-with-earths-climate/?_php=true

Naomi Klein: ?We tried it your way and we don?t have another decade to waste? – Guardian – September 14, 2014 – By Suzanne Goldenberg – http://www.theguardian.com/books/2014/sep/14/naomi-klein-interview-capitalism-vs-the-climate