Arquivo da tag: Europa

Quando todos os europeus eram negros (El País)

Maior estudo genético de europeus da pré-história revela um passado complexo e violento no qual populações inteiras foram forçadas a emigrar ou desaparecer para sempre

NUÑO DOMÍNGUEZ

Três crânios encontrados na República Checa associados com o período gravetiano.

Três crânios encontrados na República Checa associados com o período gravetiano. M. Frouz / J. Svoboda

O estudo genético de restos mortais de europeus que morreram há milhares de anos, abriu uma janela única para a pré-história do continente. O trabalho abrange grande parte do Paleolítico Superior, de 45.000 até 7.000 anos atrás, e revela vários episódios até agora desconhecidos.

“O que vemos é uma história das populações tão complexa quanto a dos últimos 7.000 anos, com muitos momentos em que populações substituem outras, imigração em uma escala dramática e em um momento no qual o clima estava mudando radicalmente”, resumiu David Reich, geneticista da Universidade de Harvard e principal autor do estudo, publicado na revista Nature.

O estudo analisou o DNA de 51 euroasiáticos, uma amostra 10 vezes maior que qualquer estudo anterior. Abarca desde os humanos modernos mais antigos registrados aos caçadores-coletores que viveram pouco antes da revolução neolítica que trouxe consigo a agricultura ao continente.

A primeira conclusão do estudo é que, embora os neandertais e os humanos modernos (os Homo sapiens) se cruzaram e tiveram filhos férteis, a percentagem de DNA dessa outra espécie que carregamos diminuiu rapidamente, passando de 6 % para os 2% de hoje. Isto implica certa incompatibilidade evolutiva que já tinha sido destacada por outros estudos recentes.

Há 19.000 anos, alguém enterrou na Cantábria uma das mulheres mais misteriosas da pré-história europeia. Trata-se da Dama Vermelha, que em seus 35 ou 40 anos recebeu uma sepultura muito estranha, o que poderia indicar um significado sagrado. Seu cadáver tinha decomposto ao ar livre e, em seguida, seus ossos foram cobertos com tinta vermelha. Tanto deviam respeitar aquela mulher que um de seus ossos foi cuidadosamente devolvido ao túmulo depois que um animal selvagem o profanou para se alimentar. Além de uns desenhos esquemáticos e a presença de pólen, pouco se sabe sobre a mulher e o significado que a cultura à qual pertencia queria dar à sua sepultura. A senhora é um dos 51 indivíduos que foram analisados neste estudo. A equipe de Manuel González Morales está preparando uma reconstrução do aspecto que teve essa mulher, cujo genes mostram que era negra, explica.

Embora os primeiros sapiens tenham chegado à Europa há cerca de 45.000 anos, sua marca genética desapareceu completamente nas populações atuais. As primeiras populações que possuem algum parentesco com os europeus de hoje remontam a uns 37.000 anos atrás. Os autores do trabalho identificam essa população com o período aurignaciano.

Embora os primeiros sapiens tenham chegado à Europa há cerca de 45.000 anos, sua marca genética desapareceu completamente nas populações atuais

“Estão associados a esta cultura os primeiros exemplos de arte e música, assim como as pinturas da caverna de Chauvet na França ou as flautas de ossos”, diz Manuel González Morales, pesquisador da Universidade da Cantábria e coautor do trabalho.

Naquela época, a Europa vivia a última idade do gelo, com geleiras avançando do norte da Europa e empurrando povos inteiros à migração ou ao extermínio. Segundo dados do trabalho, há 33.000 anos outro grupo substitui quase totalmente o anterior e é associado com o período gravetiano, caracterizado por pinturas com as mãos em negativo e as redondas estatuetas das Vênus paleolíticas esculpidas em osso, explica González.

Inesperadamente, há cerca de 19.000 anos, reaparecem os descendentes do período aurignaciano. Os restos humanos encontrados na Cantábria mostram agora que os habitantes desta região estavam diretamente relacionados com eles.

Uma das possíveis explicações é que aquele povo migrou para refúgios quentes do sul da Europa, em particular a Península Ibérica. Depois do momento mais frio da última idade do gelo esta população volta a se expandir para o norte da Europa, recuperando o território perdido e substituindo seus habitantes.

Última onda

Mais uma vez, cerca de 14.000 anos atrás, outra população vinda das terras do Oriente Médio desembarca no continente e passa a ser dominante, substituindo boa parte das anteriores. Esta última onda, que não era conhecida até agora, foi identificada pelos restos de um caçador e coletor encontrado em Villabruna, Itália e que deu nome a esta população.

A marca genética deste grupo se perpetuou durante milênios, já que, por exemplo, o caçador coletor de La Braña (Leão), que viveu há 7.000 anos estava relacionado com este grupo.

Os genes do homem de La Braña mostram que tinha pele escura e olhos azuis. De acordo com González, até a chegada de seus ancestrais à Europa cerca de 14.000 anos atrás, todos os europeus tinham a pele escura e os olhos castanhos. “O trabalho mostra que os primeiros indivíduos com genes de pele clara viveram há uns 13.000 anos”, explica o pesquisador da Universidade da Cantábria. Depois, com a chegada dos primeiros agricultores do Oriente Médio começa o Neolítico e a pele branca se torna muito mais comum. Em outras palavras, os europeus foram negros durante a maior parte de sua história.

Anúncios

How Climate Change is Behind the Surge of Migrants to Europe (Time) + other related articles

Even as Europe wrestles over how to absorb the migrant tide, experts warn that the flood is likely to get worse as climate change becomes a driving factor.

More than 10,000 migrants and refugees traveled to Western Europe via Hungary over the weekend, fleeing conflict-ravaged and impoverished homelands in the hope of finding a more secure life abroad. Even as Europe wrestles over how to absorb the new arrivals, human rights activists and migration experts warn that the movement is not likely to slow anytime soon. Intractable wars, terror and poverty in the Middle East and beyond will continue to drive the surge. One additional factor, say scientists, is likely to make it even worse: climate change.

From 2006 to 2011, large swaths of Syria suffered an extreme drought that, according to climatologists, was exacerbated by climate change. The drought lead to increased poverty and relocation to urban areas, according to a recent report by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and cited by Scientific American. “That drought, in addition to its mismanagement by the Assad regime, contributed to the displacement of two million in Syria,” says Francesco Femia, of the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Climate and Security. “That internal displacement may have contributed to the social unrest that precipitated the civil war. Which generated the refugee flows into Europe.” And what happened in Syria, he says, is likely to play out elsewhere going forward.

Across the Middle East and Africa climate change, according to climatologists at the U.S. Department of Defense-funded Strauss Center project on Climate Change and African Political Stability in Texas, has already affected weather. These changes have contributed to more frequent natural disasters like flooding and drought. Agricultural land is turning to desert and heat waves are killing of crops and grazing animals. Over the long term, changing weather patterns are likely to drive farmers, fishermen and herders away from affected areas, according to Femia’s Center for Climate and Security, and into urban centers — as has already happened in Syria. Both the Pentagon, which calls climate change a “threat multiplier” and U.S. Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton have warned of “water wars,” in which rival governments or militias fight over declining resources, sending even greater waves of migrants in search of security and sustenance. On Aug. 31, Secretary of State John Kerry warned that climate change could create a new class of migrants, what he called “climate refugees” at a conference on climate change conference in Anchorage, Alaska. “You think migration is a challenge to Europe today because of extremism, wait until you see what happens when there’s an absence of water, an absence of food, or one tribe fighting against another for mere survival,” he said.

Security analysts say they are already seeing the impact, particularly in migration patterns from northern Africa and the Sahel region, which is the band of farmland just below the Sahara desert. “All the indicators seem to fairly solidly convey that climate change — desertification and lack of water, or floods, are massively contributing to human mobility,” says Michael Werz, a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress policy group in Washington, D.C. Syrians and Afghans may make up the largest number of refugees flooding into Europe right now, but Africans from the Sahel are not far behind. “No one is saying ‘I’d better pack my stuff and go to Europe because I expect CO2 emissions to rise,’” he says. But the knock on effects — failed crops, ailing livestock and localized conflicts over resources—are already driving residents of the Sahel northward to flee poverty. Libya’s collapse has opened the doors wide for migrants, and the smugglers who ship them across the Mediterranean to Europe.

As Europeans debate over what to do about the influx of migrants, there has been a call for an international effort to stabilize the regions from which they come. But it’s not enough to talk about ending conflict, says Femia. “A lot more attention has to be paid to putting more resources into climate adaptation and water security and food security, so migration doesn’t become the primary option.” Tackling the problem at its source doesn’t mean ending conflict, but stopping it before it starts. And that means addressing climate change as well.

The European Migrant Crisis Is A Nightmare. Climate Change Will Make It Worse (Huff Post)

Hundreds of thousands of migrants are seeking refuge in Europe, but millions more will be displaced as the climate warms.

<span class='image-component__caption' itemprop="caption">2-year-old Aliou Seyni Diallo eats dry couscous given to him by a neighbor, after he collapsed in tears of hunger in the village of Goudoude Diobe, in the Matam region of northeastern Senegal, Tuesday, May 1, 2012.</span>

CREDIT: REBECCA BLACKWELL/ASSOCIATED PRESS. 2-year-old Aliou Seyni Diallo eats dry couscous given to him by a neighbor, after he collapsed in tears of hunger in the village of Goudoude Diobe, in the Matam region of northeastern Senegal, Tuesday, May 1, 2012.

The hundreds of thousands of migrants arriving in Europe or dying on the way to its shores could be a harbinger of things to come, researchers and policymakers warn, because a potentially greater driver of displacement looms on the horizon: climate change.

As U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned at a recent State Department-led conference on climate change in the Arctic, the scenes of chaos and heartbreak in Europe will be repeated globally unless the world acts to mitigate climate change.

“Wait until you see what happens when there’s an absence of water, an absence of food, or one tribe fighting against another for mere survival,” Kerry said.

World leaders have long warned that natural disasters and degraded environments linked to climate change could — indeed, have already started to — drive people from their homes. UN High Commissioner for Refugees António Guterres declared in 2009 that climate change will create millions of refugees and internally displaced populations. “Not only states, but cultures and identities will be drowned,” Guterres said.

Displacement is already happening in some parts of the world. Almost 28 million people on average were displaced by environmental disasters every year between 2008 and 2013, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center — roughly three times as many as were forced from their homes by conflict and violence.

It’s difficult to predict exactly how many more may be displaced as climate change progresses. “When global warming takes hold there could be as many as 200 million people overtaken” by the consequences, professor Norman Myers of Oxford University argued in a 2005 paper. For comparison’s sake, 350,000 migrants sought entry into the  European Union in 2014, the International Organization for Migration estimated.

Few countries or international organizations are prepared to deal with environmentally displaced people. As a 2011 report from the European Parliament’s Directorate-General for Internal Policies detailed, there is no specific legal protection for “environmentally displaced individuals” beyond temporary measures that would prove insufficient if the environmental damage to their homeland endured.

The UN has a non-binding agreement on internal displacement from 1998 that includes provisions for people fleeing natural disasters, but it is not obligatory and includes no penalties for countries that ignore it, as Roger Zetter, a professor emeritus in refugee studies at Oxford, told The Huffington Post. The portions addressing natural disasters focus on storms, not the more complex and slow-onset effects of climate change.

Myers’ sensational prediction of hundreds of millions of climate change refugees has come under fire in the years since its 2005 publication. “It’s a very contentious overestimate,” Zetter said. “It’s a back-of-the-envelope figure.”

It’s difficult, if not impossible, to get data on the number of current migrants who left their homes primarily because of climate change. For most, environmental degradation is one factor among many, Zetter and other experts cautioned. Nevertheless, climate change-related environmental impacts will present “very significant challenges,” Zetter said.

“What climate change and displacement do is present developmental problems for countries that are already struggling,” he explained. “If you’ve got to start spending more and more money on flood relief channels or earthquake-proof buildings or increasing huge water transfer programs to cope with depleting aquifers, there’s no question that it will add a huge additional financial burden and make planning and development strategies more difficult.” 

And for some countries, climate change poses an immediate and very real threat — countries like the small island states threatened by rising seas. “If there’s no land, they’ll have to leave,” Zetter said.

<span class='image-component__caption' itemprop="caption">In this March 30, 2004 file photo, a man fishes on a bridge on Tarawa atoll, Kiribati. Fearing that climate change could wipe out their entire Pacific archipelago, the leaders of Kiribati are considering an unusual backup plan: moving the populace to Fiji.</span>

CREDIT: RICHARD VOGEL/ASSOCIATED PRESS. In this March 30, 2004 file photo, a man fishes on a bridge on Tarawa atoll, Kiribati. Fearing that climate change could wipe out their entire Pacific archipelago, the leaders of Kiribati are considering an unusual backup plan: moving the populace to Fiji.

That includes places like Kiribati, a country made up of 33 islands in the remote South Pacific. Kiribati will be among the first countries to vanish beneath the rising ocean, possibly as soon as the end of this century. But long before then, its atolls and reef islands will be uninhabitable for their 103,000 residents if a violent storm comes crashing through, or if the ocean seeps into their already inadequate supply of fresh groundwater. Half of the country’s citizens live on the Tarawa Atoll, a crescent of white sand two-thirds of a mile across whose highest point is just 10 feet above the ocean.

Operating on the unfortunate assumption that the sea will swallow the country, the government of Kiribati purchased 6,000 acres of land in Fiji last year, in case they need to uproot an entire people and put them somewhere else.

Major storms and flooding already cause tremendous displacement — almost 28 million per year on average, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center. Many more are affected, but not necessarily displaced — an average of 140 million people yearly, the International Panel on Climate Change reports. Scientists expect climate change to make violent storms like Typhoon Haiyan, which forced a million people to flee their homes in the Philippines in 2013, stronger and more frequent.

Typhoons and monsoon floods hit people hard and fast, forcing them to literally flee for their lives. Scientists call those rapid-onset climate events. But there are also slow-onset climate events like drought, desertification and sea level rise.

These slow-moving changes are “much more difficult to relate to mobility patterns,” Albert Kraler, a program manager for research at the International Center for Migration Policy Development in Vienna, told HuffPost. Often, environmental changes are just “one of the factors informing people’s migration choices.”

Despite the difficulty in determining exact numbers, the United Nations Environment Program concluded in a 2011 study on the Sahel, a semi-arid belt across northern Africa, that “migration occurs when livelihoods cannot be maintained, especially when agriculture or herding is severely affected by environmental degradation or extreme events.”

The changes in the Sahel are perhaps the most obvious example of slow-onset events. The UN dubbed the region “ground zero” for climate change “due to its extreme climatic conditions and highly vulnerable population.” Its arid climate and infrequent rain are getting worse, and scientists blame climate change. The rain is less predictable than it used to be — sometimes there is too much and sometimes nowhere near enough. For almost everyone in the Sahel, food has become more expensive and scarcer. As a result, 30 percent of households in Burkina Faso, in the heart of the Sahel, have relocated in the last 20 years because they could no longer survive, The Guardian reported in 2013.

People have always migrated across this region. But these days, “the traditional temporary and seasonal migration patterns of many farmers, herders and fishermen in the region are increasingly being replaced by a more permanent shift southward and to urban areas,” UNEP reports. “Nearly half of the West African population now lives in largely overcrowded coastal cities, including 12 townships of over one million inhabitants along the coastline from Senegal to Nigeria.”

The population of the Sahel region is expected to skyrocket over the next few decades. Competition between tribes and ethnic groups, pastoralists, farmers and fishermen over ever-scarcer natural resources, which has existed for as long as people have lived there, is becoming intense. And then there’s Boko Haram. Its fighters have set up camps on islands emerging out of Lake Chad, a once-majestic expanse of fresh water that in the past supported millions of people in the heart of the Sahel. But the lake has lost 90 percent of its area since the 1960s. Now, there’s a militant Muslim fundamentalist insurgency taking hold amid an ongoing environmental disaster.

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A dead donkey lies partially covered by the wind-swept sand near the village of Dala in the Sahel belt of Chad, Friday, April 20, 2012. UNICEF estimates that 127,000 children under five in Chad's Sahel belt will require lifesaving treatment for severe acute malnutrition this year, with an estimated 1 million expected throughout the wider Sahel region. The organization says the current food and nutrition crisis stems from scarce rainfalls in 2011, which caused poor harvests and livestock production.</span>

CREDIT: BEN CURTIS/ASSOCIATED PRESS. A dead donkey lies partially covered by the wind-swept sand near the village of Dala in the Sahel belt of Chad, Friday, April 20, 2012. UNICEF estimates that 127,000 children under five in Chad’s Sahel belt will require lifesaving treatment for severe acute malnutrition this year, with an estimated 1 million expected throughout the wider Sahel region. The organization says the current food and nutrition crisis stems from scarce rainfalls in 2011, which caused poor harvests and livestock production.

Climate change is also a factor in the worsening storms and environmental degradation of coastal South Asia — factors that, when combined with mismanagement and political dysfunction, are putting millions of people at risk. Some have already started to migrate because their ways of living are becoming impossible. In the Indus delta in Pakistan, entire villages have been wiped off the map. Bangladeshis and Indians in the Sundarbans, a vast mangrove forest where the Ganges meets the sea, are heading inland, away from the rising ocean and the increasingly saline farmland.

Bangladesh is expected to be the largest single source of climate refugees, with up to 30 million people at risk. Many end up in slums in cities like Dhaka, Bangladesh’s capital and the world’s fastest-growing megacity. Some 70 percent of Dhaka’s slum dwellers moved there because of environmental degradation, according to the International Organization for Migration.

Migrants and refugees across the world, driven by rapid-onset natural disasters or by a complex combination of the more slow-moving effects of a changing climate, are already putting immense strain on the countries and cities they end up in. A lot of the time locals aren’t happy to see them, and many governments have been caught unprepared and unwilling to take them in.

Already, migrants and refugees across the world are already putting immense strain on the countries and cities where they end up.

In Europe, Hungary is putting up a fence to keep migrants and refugees out. “We don’t want to [live together with Muslims],” Hungary’s prime minister Victor Orban said on Thursday, “and I think we have a right to decide that we do not want a large number of Muslim people in our country.”

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Detainees sit in a detention center on the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, July 23, 2009. Australia came under fire from the U.N. children's aid agency and human rights advocates June 3, 2011, over its plan to send unaccompanied child asylum seekers to Malaysia under a refugee swap deal.</span>

CREDIT: MARK BAKER/ASSOCIATED PRESS. Detainees sit in a detention center on the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, July 23, 2009. Australia came under fire from the U.N. children’s aid agency and human rights advocates June 3, 2011, over its plan to send unaccompanied child asylum seekers to Malaysia under a refugee swap deal.

For the past two years, Australia has deployed its navy to force migrants and asylum-seekers away. The government allegedly bribed one captain more than $30,000 to take his boatload of migrants to Indonesia. Other migrants are being held in detention centers on tiny islands like Nauru, where, according to an Australian Senate committee report, children are sexually abused and guards offer weed in exchange for sex.

As for America, when residents of Kivalina, a Native village in northwestern Alaska that is rapidly disappearing into the ocean, tried to get the government to lend a hand, the response they received was that “there’s no agency set up to address those questions.”

Europe’s handling of the current refugee situation doesn’t bode well for a future in which vulnerable populations fleeing the effects of climate change are again knocking at their doors. Nor does it seem likely that Western countries will embark on the expensive and challenging task of helping at-risk countries prepare, as John Kerry warned we must do. The Western world is facing a lot of tough questions, Zetter said.

“We’ve not faced up to the challenge that we obviously are the emitters, that we are creating climate change, that we are creating this additional pressure on the developmental trajectories that many countries face,” he said.

Europe hit by one of the worst droughts since 2003 (Science Daily)

Date:
August 20, 2015
Source:
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Summary:
Much of the European continent has been affected by severe drought in June and July 2015, one of the worst since the drought and heat wave of summer of 2003, according to the latest reports.

Areas with the lowest soil moisture content since 1990 in July 2015 (in red) and in July 2003 (in blue). Credit: JRC-EDEA database (EDO). © EU, 2015

Much of the European continent has been affected by severe drought in June and July 2015, one of the worst since the drought and heat wave of summer of 2003, according to the latest report by the JRC’s European Drought Observatory (EDO). The drought, which particularly affects France, Benelux, Germany, Hungary, the Czech Republic, northern Italy and northern Spain, is caused by a combination of prolonged rain shortages and exceptionally high temperatures.

Satellite imagery and modelling revealed that the drought, caused by prolonged rainfall shortage since April, had already affected soil moisture content and vegetation conditions in June. Furthermore, the areas with the largest rainfall deficits also recorded exceptionally high maximum daily temperatures: in some cases these reached record values.

Another characteristic of this period was the persistence of the thermal anomalies: in the entire Mediterranean region, and particularly in Spain, the heat wave was even longer than that of 2003, with maximum daily temperatures consistently above 30°C for durations of 30 to 35 days (even more than 40 days in Spain).

While sectors such as tourism, viticulture and solar energy benefited from the unusual drought conditions, many environmental and production sectors suffered due to water restrictions, agricultural losses, disruptions to inland water transport, increased wildfires, and threats to forestry, energy production, and human health.

Rainfall is urgently needed in the coming months to offset the negative impacts of the 2015 drought situation. The current seasonal weather forecast envisages more abundant rains for the Mediterranean region in September, but no effective improvement is yet foreseen for parts of western, central and eastern Europe.

Futebol na Europa sofre com onda de violência (Folha de S.Paulo)

Briga de torcidas em Roma

Vincenzo Tersigni/Efe

RAFAEL REIS
DE SÃO PAULO

26/02/2015 02h00

Para quem pensa que a violência dos torcedores é exclusividade brasileira e que a Europa estava livre desse flagelo, os últimos dez dias foram bastante reveladores.

O continente, marcado por episódios trágicos especialmente nos anos 1980, conseguiu amenizar a violência nos estádios com leis rígidas e rigor no cumprimento delas.

Mas acontecimentos recentes fizeram os sinais de alerta voltarem a se acender.

O episódio mais emblemático é o da Grécia. O governo do país suspendeu por tempo indeterminado o campeonato local devido à violência de torcedores do Panathinaikos no jogo contra o Olympiakos no domingo (22).

Enquanto isso, na França, apoiadores do inglês Chelsea impediram um homem negro de entrar no metrô de Paris em meio a cânticos racistas. Na Inglaterra, torcedores do West Ham entoaram cantos antissemitas ao Tottenham, clube de origem judaica.

A Itália não escapou. Roma viu fãs do Feyenoord (HOL) depredarem uma de suas praças mais importantes antes de jogo da Liga Europa.

“Há muitas coisas acontecendo ao mesmo tempo na Europa, e o futebol é reflexo de tudo isso”, disse à Folha Piara Powar, diretor-executivo da rede de ONGs Fare (Futebol Contra o Racismo na Europa, em tradução livre).

“A Grécia tem a crise econômica. Notamos ainda um aumento da intolerância com a tensão entre Rússia e Ucrânia e o crescimento da xenofobia contra os imigrantes.”

A Fare trabalha em parceria com a Fifa em iniciativas de prevenção contra qualquer preconceito no futebol.

Os ultras, responsáveis por boa parte dos tumultos no Velho Continente, normalmente estão ligados a pensamentos da extrema direita, como o neonazismo. Ou seja, na Europa, preconceito e violência no futebol são partes de um só problema.

“Os jogos têm menos violência do que no passado. Mas esse comportamento ultrapassado de alguns europeus resiste e é uma ameaça ao ambiente familiar nos estádios”, disse Powar.

Editoria de arte/Folhapress

‘MEDO PESADO’

“A gente já vai para o clássico sabendo que o clima será de guerra. Mas, desta vez, foi demais. Quando pisamos no campo para o aquecimento, fomos recebidos com uma chuva de isqueiros e sinalizadores. Eles invadiram o gramado e, então, começou a briga. Tivemos que sair correndo. Deu um medo pesado.”

O relato é do lateral direito brasileiro Leandro Salino, 29, que esteve em campo na derrota por 2 a 1 do seu Olympiakos para o Panathinaikos.

O episódio levou à terceira paralisação do campeonato local por conta de episódios de violência só nesta temporada -as outras pausas ocorreram devido a morte de um torcedor e a atentado contra um dos chefes da arbitragem.

Até a reunião da liga para discutir medidas para conter a violência terminou em briga. Um dirigente do Panathinaikos acusou o segurança do presidente do Olympiakos de agredi-lo com soco. desejo de vingança

Na Holanda, a polícia de Roterdã, casa do Feyenoord, teme que torcedores da Roma aproveitem o jogo de volta do mata-mata da Liga Europa, nesta quinta (26), para se vingarem dos fãs holandeses.

Nos últimos dias, nas redes sociais, ultras do clube italiano têm falado em dar o troco aos torcedores rivais.

Europe to Suffer from More Severe and Persistent Droughts (Science Daily)

Jan. 9, 2014 — As Europe is battered by storms, new research reminds us of the other side of the coin. By the end of this century, droughts in Europe are expected to be more frequent and intense due to climate change and increased water use.

Dry river bed in a peat upland in Northern England. (Credit: Catherine Moody, distributed via imaggeo.egu.eu)

These results, by researchers from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the University of Kassel in Germany, are published today in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, an open access journal of the European Geosciences Union (EGU).

“Our research shows that many river basins, especially in southern parts of Europe, are likely to become more prone to periods of reduced water supply due to climate change,” says Giovanni Forzieri, a researcher in climate risk management at the JRC and lead author of the study. “An increasing demand for water, following a growing population and intensive use of water for irrigation and industry, will result in even stronger reductions in river flow levels.”

Drought is a major natural disaster that can have considerable impacts on society, the environment and the economy. In Europe alone, the cost of drought over the past three decades has amounted to over 100 billion euros. In this study, the researchers wanted to find out if and where in Europe increasing temperatures and intensive water consumption could make future droughts more severe and long-lasting.

To do this, they analysed climate and hydrological models under different scenarios. “Scenarios are narratives of possible evolutions — up to 2100 in this study — of our society that we use to quantify future greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption by different sectors,” explains Luc Feyen, a hydrologist at JRC and co-author of the paper. “Climate and water-use models then translate the greenhouse gas concentrations and water requirement into future climate and water consumption projections.”

The scientists then used these projected conditions to drive a hydrological model that mimics the distribution and flow of water on Earth. By running this model until 2100 for all river basins in Europe, they could evaluate how drought conditions may change in magnitude and severity over the 21st century.

The research shows that southern parts of Europe will be the most affected. Stream and river minimum flow levels may be lowered by up to 40% and periods of water deficiency may increase up to 80% due to climate change alone in the Iberian Peninsula, south of France, Italy and the Balkans.

Higher temperatures not only result in more water being evaporated from soils, trees and bodies of water, but will also lead to more frequent and prolonged dry spells, reducing water supply and worsening droughts. The emission scenario used in the study predicts that average global temperature will increase by up to 3.4°C by 2100, relative to the period 1961-1990. But the authors warn that the warming projected for Europe, particularly its southern regions, is even stronger. “Over the Iberian Peninsula, for example, summer mean temperature is projected to increase by up to 5°C by the end of this century,” says Feyen.

In addition to climate warming, intensive water use will further aggravate drought conditions by 10-30% in southern Europe, as well as in the west and centre of the continent, and in some parts of the UK.

“The results of this study emphasise the urgency of sustainable water resource management that is able to adapt to these potential changes in the hydrological system to minimise the negative socio-economic and environmental impacts,” Forzieri concludes.

Journal Reference:

  1. G. Forzieri, L. Feyen, R. Rojas, M. Flörke, F. Wimmer, A. Bianchi. Ensemble projections of future streamflow droughts in EuropeHydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2014; 18 (1): 85 DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-85-2014

Germany Has Created An Accidental Empire (Social Europe)

25/03/2013 BY ULRICH BECK

ulrich_beckAre we now living in a German Europe? In an interview with EUROPP editors Stuart A Brown and Chris Gilson, Ulrich Beck discusses German dominance of the European Union, the divisive effects of austerity policies, and the relevance of his concept of the ‘risk society’ to the current problems being experienced in the Eurozone.

How has Germany come to dominate the European Union?

Well it happened somehow by accident. Germany has actually created an ‘accidental empire’. There is no master plan; no intention to occupy Europe. It doesn’t have a military basis, so all the talk about a ‘Fourth Reich’ is misplaced. Rather it has an economic basis – it’s about economic power – and it’s interesting to see how in the anticipation of a European catastrophe, with fears that the Eurozone and maybe even the European Union might break down, the landscape of power in Europe has changed fundamentally.

First of all there’s a split between the Eurozone countries and the non-Eurozone countries. Suddenly for example the UK, which is only a member of the EU and not a member of the Eurozone, is losing its veto power. It’s a tragic comedy how the British Prime Minister is trying to tell us that he is still the one who is in charge of changing the European situation. The second split is that among the Eurozone countries there is an important division of power between the lender countries and the debtor countries. As a result Germany, the strongest economic country, has become the most powerful EU state.

Are austerity policies dividing Europe?

Indeed they are, in many ways. First of all we have a new line of division between northern European and southern European countries. Of course this is very evident, but the background from a sociological point of view is that we are experiencing the redistribution of risk from the banks, through the states, to the poor, the unemployed and the elderly. This is an amazing new inequality, but we are still thinking in national terms and trying to locate this redistribution of risk in terms of national categories.

At the same time there are two leading ideologies in relation to austerity policies. The first is pretty much based on what I call the ‘Merkiavelli’ model – by this I mean a combination of Niccolò Machiavelli and Angela Merkel. On a personal level, Merkel takes a long time to make decisions: she’s always waiting until some kind of consensus appears. But this kind of waiting makes the countries depending on Germany’s decision realise that actually Germany holds the power. This deliberate hesitation is quite an interesting strategy in terms of the way that Germany has taken over economically.

The second element is that Germany’s austerity policies are not based simply on pragmatism, but also underlying values. The German objection to countries spending more money than they have is a moral issue which, from a sociological point of view, ties in with the ‘Protestant Ethic’. It’s a perspective which has Martin Luther and Max Weber in the background. But this is not seen as a moral issue in Germany, instead it’s viewed as economic rationality. They don’t see it as a German way of resolving the crisis; they see it as if they are the teachers instructing southern European countries on how to manage their economies.

This creates another ideological split because the strategy doesn’t seem to be working so far and we see many forms of protest, of which Cyprus is the latest example. But on the other hand there is still a very important and powerful neo-liberal faction in Europe which continues to believe that austerity policies are the answer to the crisis.

Is the Eurozone crisis proof that we live in a risk society?

Yes, this is the way I see it. My idea of the risk society could easily be misunderstood because the term ‘risk’ actually signifies that we are in a situation to cope with uncertainty, but to me the risk society is a situation in which we are not able to cope with the uncertainty and consequences that we produce in society.

I make a distinction between ‘first modernity’ and our current situation. First modernity, which lasted from around the 18th century until perhaps the 1960s or 1970s, was a period where there was a great deal of space for experimentation and we had a lot of answers for the uncertainties that we produced: probability models, insurance mechanisms, and so on. But then because of the success of modernity we are now producing consequences for which we don’t have any answers, such as climate change and the financial crisis. The financial crisis is an example of the victory of a specific interpretation of modernity: neo-liberal modernity after the breakdown of the Communist system, which dictates that the market is the solution and that the more we increase the role of the market, the better. But now we see that this model is failing and we don’t have any answers.

We have to make a distinction between a risk society and a catastrophe society. A catastrophe society would be one in which the motto is ‘too late’: where we give in to the panic of desperation. A risk society in contrast is about the anticipation of future catastrophes in order to prevent them from happening. But because these potential catastrophes are not supposed to happen – the financial system could collapse, or nuclear technology could be a threat to the whole world – we don’t have the basis for experimentation. The rationality of calculating risk doesn’t work anymore. We are trying to anticipate something that is not supposed to happen, which is an entirely new situation.

Take Germany as an example. If we look at Angela Merkel, a few years ago she didn’t believe that Greece posed a major problem, or that she needed to engage with it as an issue. Yet now we are in a completely different situation because she has learned that if you look into the eyes of a potential catastrophe, suddenly new things become possible. Suddenly you think about new institutions, or about the fiscal compact, or about a banking union, because you anticipate a catastrophe which is not supposed to happen. This is a huge mobilising force, but it’s highly ambivalent because it can be used in different ways. It could be used to develop a new vision for Europe, or it could be used to justify leaving the European Union.

How should Europe solve its problems?

I would say that the first thing we have to think about is what the purpose of the European Union actually is. Is there any purpose? Why Europe and not the whole world? Why not do it alone in Germany, or the UK, or France?

I think there are four answers in this respect. First, the European Union is about enemies becoming neighbours. In the context of European history this actually constitutes something of a miracle. The second purpose of the European Union is that it can prevent countries from being lost in world politics. A post-European Britain, or a post-European Germany, is a lost Britain, and a lost Germany. Europe is part of what makes these countries important from a global perspective.

The third point is that we should not only think about a new Europe, we also have to think about how the European nations have to change. They are part of the process and I would say that Europe is about redefining the national interest in a European way. Europe is not an obstacle to national sovereignty; it is the necessary means to improve national sovereignty. Nationalism is now the enemy of the nation because only through the European Union can these countries have genuine sovereignty.

The fourth point is that European modernity, which has been distributed all over the world, is a suicidal project. It’s producing all kinds of basic problems, such as climate change and the financial crisis. It’s a bit like if a car company created a car without any brakes and it started to cause accidents: the company would take these cars back to redesign them and that’s exactly what Europe should do with modernity. Reinventing modernity could be a specific purpose for Europe.

Taken together these four points form what you could say is a grand narrative of Europe, but one basic issue is missing in the whole design. So far we’ve thought about things like institutions, law, and economics, but we haven’t asked what the European Union means for individuals. What do individuals gain from the European project? First of all I would say that, particularly in terms of the younger generation, more Europe is producing more freedom. It’s not only about the free movement of people across Europe; it’s also about opening up your own perspective and living in a space which is essentially grounded on law.

Second, European workers, but also students as well, are now confronted with the kind of existential uncertainty which needs an answer. Half of the best educated generation in Spanish and Greek history lack any future prospects. So what we need is a vision for a social Europe in the sense that the individual can see that there is not necessarily social security, but that there is less uncertainty. Finally we need to redefine democracy from the bottom up. We need to ask how an individual can become engaged with the European project. In that respect I have made a manifesto, along with Daniel Cohn-Bendit, called “We Are Europe”, arguing that we need a free year for everyone to do a project in another country with other Europeans in order to start a European civil society.

A more detailed discussion of the topics covered in this article is available in Ulrich Beck’s latest book, German Europe (Polity 2013). This interview was first published on EUROPP@LSE

Racism in European Football: Will New Rules Help? (Global Voices)

Posted 8 November 2012 22:05 GMT

Written by Richard Wanjohi

The last weeks of October 2012 saw racism rear its ugly head again, in the European Leagues, particularly in England, affecting both the Premier League clubs and players, as well as the national one too. Many have wondered whether the major football bodies UEFA and FIFA will act as some have been trying to do like the Football Association (FA) in England.

To give us a perspective into the racism issue, ArsenalNews chronicles various incidences of racism that have taken place in different countries:

Racism is a major issue in our world nowadays, even the beautiful game is filled with it. Players, officials and fans are all targeted, some may be targeted because of them being on the opposing team and some individuals are even targeted by their own fans. Below are some football related racist incidents and acts that happened all around Europe.

In February 2011, Roberto Carlos signed a contract with Russian Premier League club Anzhi Makhachkala. The following month during a game away against Zenit, a banana was held near Carlos by one of the fans as the footballer was taking part in a flag-raising ceremony.

In November 2008, Middlesbrough’s Egyptian forward Mido was subjected to Islamophobic chanting from a small number of Newcastle United fans.

In March 2012, a 29 year old Arsenal fan was arrested after being caught racially abusing Newcastle United player Cheik Tiote by SkySports cameras.

The most talked about incident in the 2011/2012 season was when England captain John Terry was caught on tape allegedly racially abusing Anton Ferdinand. Few days ago Queens Park Rangers faced Chelsea, Ferdinand refused to shake hands with Terry before the start of the match.

While it may have affected the various national leagues, it seems that international games are not immune to these incidents with the most recent one in Serbia when the Under-21 England team played the Serbian Under-21 on October 16.

Here is a video uploaded by youtube user  of the incident that ensued in Serbia in the match between the Under-21 England and Serbian national teams on 16 October 2012:

Football Philosophy tells us in the blog-post Racism in the Balkans: A Problem That Will Just Not Go Away:

The disturbing scenes in Serbia this week have once again drawn attention to the issue of racism in football, particularly in this part of the world, where an unhealthy political culture of hard-line nationalism and ethnic prejudice in the region over the past decades has bred violence and bigotry on the terraces.

There is little doubt that the problem of racism, accentuated by periods of aggressive ethnic nationalism in the Balkans, remains a significant problem for football. This is a problem that UEFA and the football authorities appear unwilling to address, in the hope that it will fade out of public consciousness. Their actions to this point in dealing with Tuesday’s despicable incidents have only added weight to this claim.

Lester Hollaway in his blog-post What Rio can learn from non-League football reflects on the English footballer’s refusal to wear a Kick It Out t-shirt, a campaign driven by an awareness programme under the same name:

Football has always been a game built on the grassroots and, on a day when a handful of highly-paid Premiership players headed by Manchester United’s Rio Ferdinand postured over racism, it was refreshing to witness non-league Sutton United remind us what is good about the game.

First, they were picking on the wrong target. Any criticism about light punishments for racism – for example in the cases of John Terry or Luis Suarez – must go first and foremost to the football authorities and then to Premiership clubs themselves. Kick It Out are merely a pressure group without power, and one that has consistently been calling for tougher penalties for many a year.

The PFA (Professional Footballers Association) in the UK on 24 October gave a 6-point proposal to curb the issue including the so-called Rooney Rule as highlighted by FootyMatters:

The PFA’s plan calls for:

  • speeding up the process of dealing with reported racist abuse with close monitoring of any incidents,
  • consideration of stiffer penalties for racist abuse and to include an equality awareness programme for culprits and clubs involved,
  • an English form of the ‘Rooney Rule’ – introduced by American football’s National Football League in 2003 – to make sure qualified ethnic minority coaches are on interview lists for job vacancies,
  • the proportion of black coaches and managers to be monitored and any inequality or progress highlighted,
  • racial abuse to be considered gross misconduct in player and coach contracts (and therefore potentially a sackable offence),
  • not losing sight of other equality issues such as gender, sexual orientation, disability, anti-Semitism, Islamophobia, and Asians in football.

Ademir to Zizinho wrote a lenghty post about Why English football doesn’t need a “Rooney Rule”:

The idea of introducing a “Rooney rule” might seem a panacea to cure football of its current ills. Yet in reality it would simply paper over the fundamental flaws which beset the entire process of appointing managers. England does not just lack a reasonable number of black managers within the football league, it lacks a sensible method of unearthing managers of talent, regardless of their ethnicity.

Rather than a requirement to interview members of ethnic minorities, a far more inclusive amendment would be to interview prospective managers of any race who had not previously held a professional position. That would not only open up the field to members of all ethnicities, it would end the “old boys’ network” that sees failing managers bounce around from club to club based on a long past playing career. Sadly in their attempt to take control of the media agenda, the PFA have instead latched on to another half-baked idea that will benefit nobody.

It’s truly about time that the major governing bodies in the game of football took decisive action against this act that smears the beautiful game of football. It has no place in sport in this time and era as the game is truly global as represented by the players playing in most leagues in Europe and other successful leagues.

IMF’s Peter Doyle scorns its ‘tainted’ leadership (BBC)

20 July 2012 Last updated at 11:50 GMT

Christine LagardePeter Doyle claims there was a “fundamental illegitimacy” in Christine Lagarde’s appointment

A top economist at the International Monetary Fund has poured scorn on its “tainted” leadership and said he is “ashamed” to have worked there.

Peter Doyle said in a letter to the IMF executive board that he wanted to explain his resignation after 20 years.

He writes of “incompetence”, “failings” and “disastrous” appointments for the IMF’s managing director, stretching back 10 years.

No one from the Washington-based IMF was immediately available for comment.

Mr Doyle, former adviser to the IMF’s European Department, which is running the bailout programs for Greece, Portugal and Ireland, said the Fund’s delay in warning about the urgency of the global financial crisis was a failure of the “first order”.

In the letter, dated 18 June and obtained by the US broadcaster CNN, Mr Doyle said the failings of IMF surveillance of the financial crisis “are, if anything, becoming more deeply entrenched”.

He writes: “This fact is most clear in regard to appointments for managing director which, over the past decade, have all-too-evidently been disastrous.

“Even the current incumbent [Christine Lagarde] is tainted, as neither her gender, integrity, or elan can make up for the fundamental illegitimacy of the selection process.”

Mr Doyle is thought to be echoing here widespread criticism that the head of the IMF is always a European, while the World Bank chief is always a US appointee.

Mr Doyle concludes his letter: “There are good salty people here. But this one is moving on. You might want to take care not to lose the others.”

The IMF could not be reached immediately by the BBC. However, CNN reported that a Fund spokesman told it that there was nothing to substantiate Mr Doyle’s claims and that the IMF had held its own investigations into surveillance of the financial crisis.

Analysis

image of Andrew WalkerAndrew WalkerBBC World Service Economics correspondent

Peter Doyle’s letter is short but the criticism excoriating. Perhaps the bigger of the two main charges is that the IMF failed to warn enough about the problems that led to the global financial crises.

The IMF has had investigations which have, up to a point, made similar criticisms, but not in such inflammatory terms. The IMF did issue some warnings, but the allegation that they were not sustained or timely enough and were actively suppressed raises some very big questions about the IMF’s role.

Then there is the description of the managing director as tainted. It’s not personal. It’s a familiar attack on a process which always selects a European. It’s still striking, though, to hear it from someone so recently on the inside.