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Anthropologist, professor at the Federal University of São Paulo

Violência no futebol brasileiro – fim de semana de 18 e 19 de agosto de 2012

19/08/2012 18h00 – Atualizado em 19/08/2012 23h33

Homem é morto durante confronto entre torcedores de Vasco e Flamengo (G1)

Confusão aconteceu em rua de Tomás Coelho, no subúrbio do Rio.
Segundo a Polícia Militar, um torcedor rubro-negro ficou ferido.

Do G1 RJ

Diego Martins Leal, de 29 anos, foi baleado e morto durante uma briga entre torcedores do Vasco e do Flamengo na tarde deste domingo (19), em Tomás Coelho, subúrbio do Rio de Janeiro.

De acordo com as primeiras informações da Polícia Militar, a confusão começou quando um ônibus com flamenguistas vindo de Resende, no Sul Fluminense, passou por um grupo de torcedores do Vasco concentrados num porto de gasolina localizado na Rua Silva Vale. Diego foi morto no interior de um bar, na Rua Itaquati. Um torcedor do Flamengo ficou ferido.

O primo de Diego presenciou o crime. “Deram cinco disparos, e ainda deram facada nele. É uma violência que não acaba, briga de torcida organizada. Tinham marcado pelo Fracebook”, destacou.

Cerca de 60 suspeitos de participarem da briga foram detidos e levados para a 44ª DP (Inhaúma). Ainda segundo a PM, o autor do disparo foi reconhecido por testemunhas e identificado. Também foram apreendidos fogos de artifício.

Flamengo e Vasco jogaram no Estádio do Engenhão, na Zona Norte, pela 18ª rodada do Campeonato Brasileiro. O time rubro-negro venceu por um a zero, com gol de Wágner Love.

 

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19/08/2012 21h03 – Atualizado em 19/08/2012 21h13

Homem é baleado durante briga entre torcedores na Zona Oeste (G1)

Segundo hospital, ele foi atingido no abdômen e passa por cirurgia.
Outras seis pessoas ficaram feridas durante confronto em Jacarepaguá.

Do G1 RJ

Um homem foi baleado no abdômen durante uma briga entre torcedores de Vasco e Flamengo na ytarde deste domingo (19), próximo ao Largo da Tanque, na Estrada do Cafundá, Zona Oeste do Rio de Janeiro. Outros seis torcedores ficaram feridos na confusão.

Segundo informações da Secretaria municipal de Saúde, o torcedor, que ainda não foi identificado, deu entrada no Hospital Lourenço Jorge, também na Zona Oeste, onde foi submetido a uma cirurgia. Até as 20h40, ele permanceia no centro cirúrgico.

Ainda de acordo com a secretaria, outros dois feridos também deram entrada na mesma unidade: um levou um tiro de raspão na perna; o outro teve um trauma na face. Ambos passavam por avaliação médica até as 20h40.

Os outros quatro feridos foram atendidos no Hospital Cardoso Fontes, em Jacarepaguá. Um deles sofreu uma fratura no crânio, está em estado grave e foi transferido para o Hospital do Andaraí, na Zona Norte. Os outros três tiveram cortes e escoriações pelo corpo, e estão em observação.

Uma viatura do 18° BPM (Jacarepaguá) foi ao local da briga e prendeu sete torcedores, sendo três da torcida do Flamengo e quatro torcedores do Vasco, todos encaminhados para a 41ª DP (Tanque).

Também na tarde deste domingo, um vascaíno ainda não identificado foi baleado e morto durante uma briga entre torcedores dos mesmos times em Tomás Coelho, subúrbio do Rio de Janeiro.

Flamengo e Vasco se enfrentaram no Estádio do Engenhão, na Zona Norte, pela 18ª rodada do Campeonato Brasileiro. O time rubro-negro venceu por um a zero, com gol de Wágner Love.

 

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Corpo de torcedor do Vasco morto na zona norte é liberado, mas permanece no IML (R7)

Dois suspeitos foram presos logo após crime; DH investiga caso

Isabele Rangel, do R7 | 20/08/2012 às 09h35 | Atualizado em: 20/08/2012 às 10h51

O corpo do torcedor do Vasco Diego Martins Leal, de 30 anos, morto em uma briga de torcida em Thomaz Coelho, na zona norte, já foi liberado do IML (Instituto Médico Legal).No entanto, segundo a Polícia Civil, a vítima ainda não foi removida para enterro.

Diego foi morto em uma confusão envolvendo 50 pessoas em um posto de gasolina entre as ruas Itaquati e Silva Vale, nas proximidades da avenida Pastor Martin Luter King Júnior, às margens da linha dois do metrô. Segundo a Polícia Civil, ele teria sido morto a tiros por dois homens identificados logo após o crime. O caso está sendo investigado pela DH (Divisão de Homicídios).

A confusão ocorreu por volta das 16h, quando três vascaínos, que estavam em um veículo Zafira, pararam para abastecer. Dentro do carro estavam Darlan Pereira da Silva e dois primos dele, que moram em Brasília, mas estavam na capital fluminense para ir ao clássico carioca no Estádio Olímpico João Havelange, no Engenho de Dentro.

Segundo a Polícia Militar, ao avistar o motorista com a camisa do Vasco, ocupantes do ônibus, que vinham de Resende, no sul do Estado, pararam o coletivo e seguiram em direção ao veículo com paus, pedras e bolas de sinuca.  Darlan ainda tentou tirar a camisa, mas ele os primos foram perseguidos e tiveram que se abrigar no interior do posto para fugir das agressões. De acordo com a PM, o carro dele foi totalmente depredado.

Em meio ao tumulto, dois homens, que não faziam parte do grupo de Resende, iniciaram uma perseguição a um torcedor do Vasco, que estava em um bar da região. A vítima, identificada como Diego Martins Leal, ainda tentou fugir, mas acabou sendo baleado. Em meio ao tumulto, um torcedor do Flamengo também ficou ferido e precisou ser atendido pelo SAMU (Serviço de Atendimento Médico de Urgência).

A confusão só terminou com a chegada de policiais do Batalhão de Méier (3º BPM), que foram acionados pelo policial que ocupava uma cabine de observação no viaduto de Thomaz Coelho, que dá acesso à estrada Adhemar Bebiano.

Dois homens foram apontados por moradores como suspeitos de terem matado o vascaíno. Eles foram presos pela PM, levados para a Delegacia de Inhaúma (44º DP), mas transferidos para a DH (Divisão de Homicídios do Rio de Janeiro), na Barra da Tijuca, zona oeste do Rio. De acordo com a polícia, os dois podem ser indiciados por homicídio doloso (com intenção de matar).

Todos os ocupantes do ônibus, que é da empresa Transtaxi, foram detidos e levados para a 44º DP, para checagem de documentos e verificação de ficha criminal. No ônibus, foram encontrados cabos de enxada, pedras, bolas de sinuca, bandeiras e camisas do Flamengo.Outros sete presos em Jacarepaguá

Em Jacarepaguá, na zona oeste, outros sete torcedores foram presos próximo ao Largo da Tanque, na Estrada do Cafundá. Uma viatura do Batalhão de Jacarepaguá (18° BPM)  foi ao local após receber denúncias de moradores por telefone.

Entre os presos, três eram torcedores do Flamengo e quatro eram vascaínos. Todos os presos foram encaminhados para a Delegacia do Tanque (41ª DP).

Assista ao vídeo

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20/08/2012 16h35 – Atualizado em 20/08/2012 17h20

Corpo de torcedor do Vasco morto em briga é enterrado no Rio (G1)

O publicitário Diego Martins Leal, de 30 anos, foi sepultado em Inhaúma.
Dois suspeitos do crime, torcedores do Flamengo, foram presos nesta manhã.

Tássia Thum – Do G1 RJ

O corpo do torcedor do Vasco Diego Martins Leal, de 30 anos, morto durante uma briga de torcidas, foi enterrado por volta das 16h20 desta segunda-feira (20) no Cemitério de Inhaúma, no subúrbio do Rio de Janeiro. O crime aconteceu no domingo (19), antes do clássico entre Flamengo e Vasco, no estádio do Engenhão.

Cerca de 200 pessoas acompanharam a cerimônia de sepultamento do torcedor vascaíno, que era publicitário. Segundo amigos e parentes, Diego fazia parte de uma torcida organizada do Vasco, mas não utilizava a camisa do time na rua para evitar confusões com torcedores de times rivais.

Segundo o tio de Diego e professor de matemática Luiz Fernando Leal, Diego foi enterrado com a camisa do Vasco. Cerca de 20 integrantes da Torcida Força Jovem Vasco, todos descaracterizados, estiveram no enterro, mas preferiram não falar com a imprensa. “Ele era um cara que gostava do samba, namorava havia oito anos e pensava em casar. Mas, infelizmente, ele foi vítima de vândalos que saíram dispostos a matar. Ele era um cara da paz, nunca brigou ou sofreu ameaças”, disse o amigo de infância do jovem, Hugo Rodrigues, que é torcedor do Flamengo.

Cerca de 200 pessoas acompanharam o sepultamento do torcedor Diego Leal, no Cemitério de Inhaúma, no subúrbio do Rio, nesta segunda-feira (20) (Foto: Tássia Thum/G1)

Cerca de 200 pessoas acompanharam o sepultamento do torcedor Diego Leal, no Cemitério de Inhaúma, no subúrbio do Rio, nesta segunda-feira (20) (Foto: Tássia Thum/G1)

O tio disse que o rapaz não usava a camisa do time na rua e nem em fotos de redes sociais a pedido dos pais, que temiam a violência nos estádios. O primo da vítima, o farmacêutico Felipe Leal, disse que Diego não ia aos jogos do Vasco havia cerca de um ano. No domingo, segundo o primo, Diego estava em um churrasco com amigos próximo de casa, no bairro de Tomás Coelho, quando houve o conflito. Felipe Leal afirma que Diego não ia ao Engenhão, já que havia combinado de ver a partida em um bar próximo de sua residência.

Nesta manhã, a Polícia Civil apresentou dois suspeitos de assassinar o torcedor do Vasco.  Alessanderson Piedade Motta, de 28 anos, e Daniel Monteiro Abreu, 27, estão presos da Divisão de Homicídios (DH), na Barra da Tijuca, Zona Oeste do Rio, e vão responder por homicídio qualificado por motivo fútil. Segundo o delegado Rivaldo Barbosa, se condenados, eles podem pegar de 20 a 30 anos de prisão.

De acordo com o delegado, das cinco testemunhas ouvidas, duas reconheceram os suspeitos como responsáveis pela morte de Diego. O delegado informou que as investigações apontam Alessanderson, que já tinha passagem pela polícia por lesão corporal, como autor dos quatro tiros que atingiram a vítima e Daniel como o autor das facadas.

A confusão começou quando um ônibus com flamenguistas vindo de Resende, no Sul Fluminense, passou por um grupo de torcedores do Vasco concentrados num bar localizado na Rua Silva Vale.

Ao tentar se esconder, Diego entrou em um outro bar, na Rua Itaquati. No interior do estabelecimento, ele foi morto pela dupla.

Na delegacia, Daniel confirmou que é comum o enfrentamento de torcidas rivais. “Torcida organizada funciona desta forma. É eles contra a gente e a gente contra eles. Uma vez mataram um amigo nosso e ninguém foi preso”, afirmou Daniel.

Outras testemunhas serão ouvidas

Daniel tem tatuagem do Flamengo nas costas (Foto: Renata Soares/G1)

Daniel tem escudo do Flamengo tatuado nas costas (Foto: Renata Soares/G1)

Ainda segundo o delegado, outros torcedores serão chamados para prestar depoimento novamente. “Isso é lamentável, é algo inaceitável. Vamos continuar a investigação e tentar identificar outras pessoas que tenham participado do crime”, afirmou Rivaldo, que acrescentou também que não há indícios de que a torcida tenha marcado este encontro pela internet:

“Não temos essa informação sobre o encontro marcado. Mas vamos continuar investigando”, concluiu o delegado Rivaldo Barbosa.

Flamengo e Vasco jogaram no Estádio do Engenhão, na Zona Norte, pela 18ª rodada do Campeonato Brasileiro 2012. O time rubro-negro venceu por um a zero, com gol de Vagner Love.

Violência no futebol argentino – fim de semana de 18 e 19 de agosto de 2012

Incidentes en Chicago: dos policías baleados (Clarín)

También hay dos efectivos con traumatismos, debido al enfrentamiento que se produjo con un sector de la barra que quiso ingresar al estadio por la fuerza. Fueron detenidas dos personas.

20/08/12 – 21:00

Otra vez la violencia en el fútbol. Por tercer día consecutivo un partido queda manchado por los violentos. En el primer partido en su estadio en su regreso a la B Nacional, Nueva Chicago no pudo festejar ni adentro del campo de juego (igualó 0-0 con Gimnasia de Jujuy), ni afuera: un sector de la barra brava se enfrentó con la policía y hay dos oficiales heridos de bala, además de dos efectivos con traumatismos (uno en el cráneo), que fueron trasladados al Hospital Churruca.

El conflicto se originó por una interna entre dos facciones de la barra de Nueva Chicago. Es que a unos 150 barras del barrio Villegas, cercanos al sector de la barra denominado Los Perales, les aplicaron el derecho de admisión. Mientras que a los de Las Antenas, el grupo antagónico, tuvieron libre acceso a la cabecera local.

En la cancha de Chicago los de Las Antenas se ubican en una cabecera y los de Los Perales en la de enfrente. Los de Villegas quisieron ingresar al estadio por la fuerza y se enfrentaron con la Policía. Comenzaron las corridas en las afueras del estadio detrás del barrio Los Perales, hacia donde se dirigieron los efectivos policiales y según testigos se escucharon varias detonaciones. Allí habrían sido heridos dos efectivos policiales que fueron trasladados al Churruca. Hay dos detenidos a los que les fueron incautadas armas de fuego y son apuntados por la policía como los presuntos agresores.

Asimismo, cuando terminó el primer tiempo hubo nuevamente corridas, las cuales se repitieron en el desarrollo del segundo tiempo en la parte baja de una tribuna del estadio. Casi sobre la hora del partido el árbitro debió suspender el juego durante más de cinco minutos, ya que volvieron a producirse incidentes entre la policía y los barras.

En enero, Agustín Alejo Rodríguez, de 27 años, fue asesinado en el polideportivo del club. Rodríguez, miembro del sector de Los Perales, acudió al club por una supuesta reunión conciliatoria entre las dos facciones de la barra. Pero los de Las Antenas los habrían emboscado. En busca de venganza, los miembros de Los Perales ingresaron por la fuerza al Hospital Santojanni donde se encontraba herido el presunto asesino. El hecho sigue sin ser esclarecido.

El sábado hubo incidentes en Santa Fe entre la policía local y los hinchas de Belgrano. Juan Carlos Olave fue detenido tras el partido y procesado por una supuesta agresión a un oficial de policía y a un bombero. El arquero del Pirata intentó calmar a los hinchas cordobeses ante la represión policial.

Por otro lado, en Victoria, hubo un enfrentamiento entre los hinchas de River y la policía. Y después fue la barra brava de Tigre la que se enfrentó con las fuerzas de seguridad. Hubo un patrullero incendiado y un alto jefe de la Bonaerense sufrió una herida grave y debió ser operado de urgencia. Se trata de Daniel Herrera, Comisario Mayor Jefe de la Departamental Conurbano Norte, que recibió una pedrada en la cabeza y fue sometido a una cirugía reconstructora que le dejó 27 puntos de sutura.

Esta mañana, en la sede de Independiente sobre la calle Boyacá, en Flores, miembros de la barra brava del Rojo habrían arrojado una bomba molotov que incendió una marquesina. Además, el presidente del club, Javier Cantero, enfrentado con la barra, denunció un intento de robo en el estadio de Independiente, presuntamente por miembros de la barra de Independiente.

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Pelea en Mataderos: Dos policías baleados en un choque con barras de Chicago (Clarín)

POR SEBASTIÁN VARELA DEL RÍO

Uno fue herido en el hombro y otro en una pierna. Hubo otros dos policías lesionados. El conflicto estalló porque los barrabravas intentaron eludir el derecho de admisión e ingresar sin entradas.

Mal momento. Un policía intenta controlar a los hinchas más exaltados. Hubo dos detenidos por portar armas de fuego. El enfrentamiento se produjo fuera del estadio y duró casi dos horas.

21/08/12

Llora Mataderos. Lo hace un poco por la costumbre impotente de vivir en un infierno. Lagrimea también por el infame gas que se ha vuelto habitual en cada uno de los episodios de una película de incidentes y asesinatos. El de ayer fue uno más de los capítulos de unahistoria que sigue derramando sangre . Una de las facciones de la barra de Chicago se enfrentó con la policía y dejó a dos efectivos heridos de bala . Otros dos fueron hospitalizados por diferentes traumatismos. Una larga batalla campal que puso la lupa nuevamente en los problemas de seguridad en las canchas argentinas en un fin de semana plagado de hechos de violencia. En la cancha de Colón la policía reprimió a los hinchas de Belgrano y el arquero Olave terminó detenido. En Independiente tiraron una bomba molotov contra la persiana de la sede social de Flores. Además, robaron computadoras del estadio. El fútbol, cada vez más oscuro.

En el barrio de Mataderos se sabía que algo iba a ocurrir. El rumor sobre posibles incidentes era habitual ya en la tarde del domingo.

“Cuidate si vas a la cancha que parece que mañana se pudre” , se podía escuchar de boca de los que en Mataderos conocen la interna. El primer partido como local en la vuelta a la B Nacional era una jornada para temer. El antecedente inmediato eran los incidentes en el portón de la tribuna visitante de Defensa y Justicia, hace una semana. Allí, a los barrabravas les cerraron el ingreso y hubo corridas. Varios habrían entrado al encuentro con armas de fuego y por temor a una masacre adentro de la popular, las dos facciones de la barra, Los Perales y Las Antenas no se enfrentaron.

El operativo de seguridad del partido de ayer ante Gimnasia de Jujuy estuvo lleno de incertidumbre. Sobre las 11 (el encuentro estaba programado para las 15) no se sabía la manera en la que se habilitarían las tribunas. De apuro, cerca del mediodía se decidió darle una cabecera a cada facción de la barra. La popular del lado del Barrio Manuel Dorrego para Los Perales . La tribuna “Mercado de Hacienda” estaba destinada a Las Antenas. Incluso se modificaron los corredores habituales de entrada del público visitante para prevenir un enfrentamiento.

Los problemas comenzaron en el portón de la tribuna donde se ubicaban los de Los Perales . Una facción de dicha hinchada, conocida como Los de Villegas, intentó ingresar corriendo y sin entradas. Cabe aclarar que Chicago viene implementando la modalidad de canje de entradas para socios, los únicos habilitados para concurrir a los partidos. La Policía, que identificó a varios que integran la lista de 90 personas sobre las que pesa el derecho de admisión, los frenó. A partir de eso se desencadenó una pelea que duró casi 100 minutos . Mientras el partido se jugaba, afuera había balas de goma, gases lacrimógeno y proyectiles.

Adentro del estadio, los miembros de la facción de Los Perales que estaban en la tribuna querían salir para sumarse a la pelea. La Policía formó un cordón policial para impedírselo. Las familias que estaban en la misma popular lograron pasar hacia un playón que comunica con la platea para apartarse.

En un momento del enfrentamiento, los barrabravas se replegaron hacia los edificios del barrio. Los efectivos seguían disparando balas de goma.

Los violentos respondieron con proyectiles de plomo que hirieron a dos policías.

Uno en el hombro y el otro en una pierna. Ambos están fuera de peligro, igual que otros dos con traumatismos en el cráneo.

Dos hombres quedaron detenidos por el hecho.

El 2012 fue sangriento para el club. En enero, un encuentro en el Polideportivo terminó con el asesinato de Agustín Rodríguez, de L os Perales . Su grupo fue a buscar venganza al hospital Santojanni, lugar en el que se encontraba internado por una puñalada Aldo Barralda, jefe de Las Antenas . La historia terminó con una batalla por los pasillos del hospital. Barralda falleció unos días después.

La historia de la interna está enmarcada por los puntos de contacto deLas Antenas con el kirchnerismo y de Los Perales con la pata peronista del macrismo.

Las Antenas quiere tomar el poder y contaría con la aprobación de sectores de la política. El uso de los barrabravas como fuerza de choque en los actos políticos no es nuevo.

Los jugadores de Chicago se mostraron enojados por los incidentes. Julio Serrano aseguró: “La Presidenta se tiene que hacer cargo. Los dirigentes políticos mantienen vivos a los barrabravas”. Daniel Ferreiro, secretario del club, afirmó preocupado: “Todos los integrantes de mi familia recibimos muchas amenazas por día”.

Por ahora, no se habla de sanciones a la institución. La posibilidad de no jugar más en Mataderos fue un rumor que circuló. Pero nada más.

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Imágenes de los incidentes en Mataderos (TyC Sports)

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BASTA DE VIOLENCIA (Olé)

De mal en peor

La Infantería ingresó a la tribuna de Chicago y se armó feo...

La Infantería ingresó a la tribuna de Chicago y se armó feo…

La facción de Los Perales de Chicago se trenzó con la Policía, que terminó con dos oficiales heridos de bala.

Faltaban tres horas para el inicio del partido y todavía no se conocía la distribución de tribunas para albergar a las dos facciones de la barra de Chicago: Los Perales (de Mataderos) y Las Antenas (de provincia). Como ayer anticipó Olé , el operativo policial tenía grietas profundas y desde la CD de la institución deslindaron responsabilidades hacia la Fuerza … El entorno del partido estuvo mal parido desde un principio, se esperaba una tarde nefasta. Y ocurrió. El saldo de la batalla entre Los Perales y la policía fue: dos oficiales con impactos de arma de fuego (uno en un hombro y otro en una pierna) internados en el Hospital Churruca, otros tres con contusiones. Habría dos barras detenidos, a los que se les incautaron armas.

La semana pasada, en la cancha de Defensa, Los Perales dejó afuera a Las Antenas. Hasta el domingo el plan del Ministerio de Seguridad era ubicarlos a todos juntos en la cabecera Calero y Persi. Un peligro latente. Con el correr de la mañana de ayer, se decidió separarlos. Pasadas las 12, se determinó que la barra de Capital ocupara la cabecera lindante a su barrio y en la popular de enfrente (originalmente estarían los jujeños, que fueron a la pequeña tribuna del costado de la platea), cercana a la General Paz, estuvo la gente de Provincia.

A los 43´ del PT se escucharon balazos de goma en el ingreso a la tribuna de Los Perales. Oficialmente el club y la Policía coincidieron en el argumento “quisieron ingresar sin entradas”. Por otro lado, se indica que el hecho se desató porque se les prohibió entrar a 50 barras que tienen derecho de admisión y se armó la gresca en las afueras del estadio y se extendió al barrio Manuel Dorrego. Durante el entretiempo continuaron los disparos, Infantería tiró gas lacrimógeno y produjo que los hinchas ubicados en esa popu se desplazaran hasta el playón.

La calma parecía haber llegado. Pero … Iban 22’ del complemento y volvieron a escucharse las detonaciones. El partido siguió al compás de los balazos. Hasta que a los 44´, increíblemente, una formación de Infantería transitó la tribuna y hubo otro choque, esta vez dentro del estadio. El juego se detuvo y los jugadores pidieron calma. El partido pudo culminar, pero Chicago quedó aún más herido.

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B NACIONAL/ CHICAGO 0 – GIMANSIA (J) 0 (Olé)

Torito en problemas

Nueva Chicago y Gimnasia (J) igualaron sin goles en Mataderos. El partido se vio opacado por incidentes protagonizados por un sector de la hinchada local con la policía.

En Mataderos, Nueva Chicago, uno de los equipos recién ascendidos a la categoría, se midió ante Gimnasia y Esgrima de Jujuy. El partido, sin mayores sucesos, finalizó igualado sin goles. Repartieron puntos ambos. Pero, por desgracia, lo lamentable estuvo en las tribunas en donde se sucedieron una serie de incidentes entre la policía y una facción de la hinchada local.

Cuando el primer tiempo estaba por llegar a su fin, el grupo de Los Perales intentó ingresar al estadio sin entradas. Como resultado, los efectivos policiales los frenaron, desatando una pelea que se extendió a lo largo de los minutos, incluso con el segundo tiempo del partido disputándose.

A los 44 minutos del ST, a punto de que finalizara el choque, la policía entró en la cancha y hubo más incidentes con otros simpatizantes locales en una de las tribunas. Como resultado, el partido estuvo detenido por unos instantes. Se finalizó, aunque con los sucesos de violencia aún latentes. Una historia lamentable. Otra vez, incidentes.

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Violencia, violencia y más violencia (Clarín)

POR GUSTAVO RONZANO

Otro fin de semana de violencia en el fútbol. Esta imagen pertenece al partido entre Colón y Belgrano. (Hugo Pascutti)

21/08/12 – 13:13

Aquella reunión del Comité Ejecutivo de AFA no fue una más. Como cada martes, aquel 29 de mayo volvieron a juntarse los dirigentes en el edificio de Viamonte 1366. Y el tenso cruce entre dos de ellos marcó a fuego esa noche: “Preocupate por tu club, que las cosas no están tan bien. Dejá a Boca fuera de todo esto”, le dijo el vice de Boca, Juan Carlos Crespi, a Javier Cantero. ¿Qué había dicho el presidente de Independiente? “En Boca todos se sacan fotos con la barra brava”.

La discusión tuvo un segundo round, pocas horas después, afuera de aquellas cuatro paredes. “No voy a andar discutiendo por los medios. El, yo y las treinta personas que estuvimos ahí sabemos lo que pasó, pero los problemas de vestuario quedan en el vestuario”, indicó Cantero. “Somos un buen ejemplo para todos. Somos un club muy bien administrado y por suerte no tenemos problemas como otros. En vez de criticar, deberían preguntarnos por qué no tenemos problemas. Esa es la manera de ayudar, y no pasearse por los canales de televisión. Espero que lo haya entendido, porque manejar un club no es igual que manejar un country, sin desmerecer a los countries”, contratacó Crespi. Y remató: “Yo no soy artista como algunos: Si tengo un problema lo resuelvo puertas para adentro”.

No hubo, claro, un antes y un después de ese episodio. Al cabo, día a día la dirigencia del fútbol argentino parece rendirle pleitesía a esa frase de cabecera que luce en su anillo Julio Grondona: Todo Pasa. Y así pasó otro fin de semana cargado de sinrazón. Un fin de semana largo, en este caso, que incluyó en el menú violencia en Santa Fe, el sábado; violencia en Tigre, el domingo; violencia en Mataderos, el lunes. Y una bomba molotov en la sede que tiene Independiente en Flores, en la madrugada del lunes. “Vamos a incrementar el derecho de admisión, no nos van a doblegar”, insiste Cantero, a quien sus pares del fútbol nacional siguen viendo como el auténtico sapo de otro pozo.

Es evidente que si no hay una política de Estado, una decisión en serio, profunda y sincera, los violentos continuarán formando parte de ese engranaje poderoso que no quiere sacar los pies de un plato demasiado grande y tentador. La presidenta Cristina Fernández de Kirchner elogió el 31 de julio a los barras porque “no miran el partido; arengan, arengan, arengan, la verdad, mi respeto para todos ellos”. Este martes, Aníbal Fernández, por si acaso, aclaró que no debe opinar de esas declaraciones porque “no soy ningún exégeta” de la Presidenta.

El senador nacional y presidente de Quilmes, en definitiva, no hizo más que sumar para la gran certeza: Cantero siempre estuvo solo.

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Más repercusiones que soluciones (Clarín)

POR DAVID FLIER

El día después del fin de semana largo a puro descontrol en el fútbol argentino todo sigue igual. No habría quita de puntos para sancionar a los clubes involucrados.

21/08/12 – 12:32

Hasta ahora, los hechos de violencia que se sucedieron el último fin de semana en el fútbol argentino dejaron sólo repercusiones. Es que, mientras varios se han pronunciado al respecto de los incidentes ocurridos en Santa Fe, Victoria, Maraderos o en la sede de de Independiente en Flores, aún no se han aplicado sanciones al respecto.

“No es algo que sorprenda lo que ocurrió el fin de semana, siempre pasa algo”, señaló este martes Mónica Nizzardo, titular de la ONG Salvemos al Fútbol, en diálogo con Clarín. Y recordó el discurso de Cristina Fernández de Kirchner en el cual restó trascendencia a la influencia de las barra bravas en hechos de violencia.

También sobre la Presidenta recayó la diputada nacional de Unión por Todos, Patricia Bullrich. “Este nuevo incidente reafirma la gravedad de los dichos de la Presidenta de la Nación donde apañó, ponderó y justificó el accionar y la existencia de los barras en el fútbol”, dijo la legisladora en referencia a la bomba que había explotado en la sede de Independiente en Flores. La investigación acerca de este incidente es llevada a cabo por la Comisaría 50ª.

A su vez, aún no se han levantado voces oficiales para confirmar sanciones sobre Tigre o Chicago. Sobre los incidentes en Victoria, donde todos los demorados fueron liberados ayer, Luis Morales, titular del ApreViDe (Agencia de Prevención de Violencia en el Deporte) había señalado a Clarín que debían realizar el informe en base “a lo que mostraran las cámaras de seguridad”. Se trata del primer fin de semana de fútbol desde que el nuevo organismo asumió en reemplazo del CoProSeDe. “Siempre es lo mismo. Cambian la figurita y se escudan en que necesitan tiempo”, sostuvo Nizzardo, quien recordó que entre tanto recambio se suman víctimas de la violencia.

No es la primera vez en el año que los hinchas de Tigre se ven envueltos en hechos de violencia cerca de su estadio. En abril, luego de escupir a Clemente Rodríguez y a Santiago Silva, se tomaron a golpes con jugadores de Boca tras el encuentro que el equipo de Julio Falcioni perdió como visitante.

Mientras tanto, en Mataderos sólo existen rumores en relación a la sanción que recibirá Nueva Chicago. Se especula que el club no sufrirá quita de puntos, pero no hay precisiones todavía sobre qué pasará con su estadio. Algo muy probable es que los demás clubes de la B Nacional pidan jugar sin hinchas visitantes cuando reciban al equipo de Mataderos.

Lejos del área metropolitana de Buenos Aires, en Córdoba continúan las repercusiones acerca de los incidentes del sábado en Santa Fe. Por un lado, la dirigencia de Belgrano omitió en su reclarmo cualquier referencia a Juan Carlos Olave. El arquero había señalado que “fue oportuna la intervención de los jugadores, hasta el arbitro lo agradeció”. Olave, acusado de golpear a un bombero, se había defendido al decir que todo fue producto de un forcejeo por una manguera para que dejaran de tirar agua sobre la hinchada.

Sin embargo, lo curioso es que a pesar de la bronca entre los simpatizantes cordobeses, uno de ellos denunció que la parcialidad de Belgrano fue la que inició el conflicto en el estadio. “Es la primera vez que voy a la cancha y no puedo dejar de hacer la denuncia de lo que vi. Todo comenzó cuando un hincha de Belgrano se subió al alambrado y se robó una bandera de Colón. Ahí los locales se pusieron violentos y comenzaron a tirar piedras”, expresó el hincha cordobés, cuyo nombre no trascendió.

Lo cierto es que quedan muchas cuestiones por investigarse para que, esta vez, no siga todo como si nada hubiese ocurrido.

Information Overload in the Era of ‘Big Data’ (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 20, 2012) — Botany is plagued by the same problem as the rest of science and society: our ability to generate data quickly and cheaply is surpassing our ability to access and analyze it. In this age of big data, scientists facing too much information rely on computers to search large data sets for patterns that are beyond the capability of humans to recognize — but computers can only interpret data based on the strict set of rules in their programming.

New tools called ontologies provide the rules computers need to transform information into knowledge, by attaching meaning to data, thereby making those data retrievable by computers and more understandable to human beings. Ontology, from the Greek word for the study of being or existence, traditionally falls within the purview of philosophy, but the term is now used by computer and information scientists to describe a strategy for representing knowledge in a consistent fashion. An ontology in this contemporary sense is a description of the types of entities within a given domain and the relationships among them.

A new article in this month’s American Journal of Botany by Ramona Walls (New York Botanical Garden) and colleagues describes how scientists build ontologies such as the Plant Ontology (PO) and how these tools can transform plant science by facilitating new ways of gathering and exploring data.

When data from many divergent sources, such as data about some specific plant organ, are associated or “tagged” with particular terms from a single ontology or set of interrelated ontologies, the data become easier to find, and computers can use the logical relationships in the ontologies to correctly combine the information from the different databases. Moreover, computers can also use ontologies to aggregate data associated with the different subclasses or parts of entities.

For example, suppose a researcher is searching online for all examples of gene expression in a leaf. Any botanist performing this search would include experiments that described gene expression in petioles and midribs or in a frond. However, a search engine would not know that it needs to include these terms in its search — unless it was told that a frond is a type of leaf, and that every petiole and every midrib are parts of some leaf. It is this information that ontologies provide.

The article in the American Journal of Botany by Walls and colleagues describes what ontologies are, why they are relevant to plant science, and some of the basic principles of ontology development. It includes an overview of the ontologies that are relevant to botany, with a more detailed description of the PO and the challenges of building an ontology that covers all green plants. The article also describes four keys areas of plant science that could benefit from the use of ontologies: (1) comparative genetics, genomics, phenomics, and development; (2) taxonomy and systematics; (3) semantic applications; and (4) education. Although most of the examples in this article are drawn from plant science, the principles could apply to any group of organisms, and the article should be of interest to zoologists as well.

As genomic and phenomic data become available for more species, many different research groups are embarking on the annotation of their data and images with ontology terms. At the same time, cross-species queries are becoming more common, causing more researchers in plant science to turn to ontologies. Ontology developers are working with the scientists who generate data to make sure ontologies accurately reflect current science, and with database developers and publishers to find ways to make it easier for scientist to associate their data with ontologies.

Journal Reference:

R. L. Walls, B. Athreya, L. Cooper, J. Elser, M. A. Gandolfo, P. Jaiswal, C. J. Mungall, J. Preece, S. Rensing, B. Smith, D. W. Stevenson. Ontologies as integrative tools for plant scienceAmerican Journal of Botany, 2012; 99 (8): 1263 DOI: 10.3732/ajb.1200222

Politics and Prejudice Explored (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 20, 2012) — Research has associated political conservatism with prejudice toward various stereotyped groups. But research has also shown that people select and interpret evidence consistent with their own pre-existing attitudes and ideologies. In this article, Chambers and colleagues hypothesized that, contrary to what some research might indicate, prejudice is not restricted to a particular political ideology.

Rather, the conflicting values of liberals and conservatives give rise to different kinds of prejudice, with each group favoring other social groups that share their values. In the first study, three diverse groups of participants rated the ideological position and their overall impression of 34 different target groups.

Participants’ impressions fell in line with their ideology. For example, conservatives expressed more prejudice than liberals against groups that were identified as liberal (e.g., African-Americans, homosexuals), but less prejudice against groups identified as conservative (e.g., Christian fundamentalists, business people).

In the second and third studies, participants were presented with 6 divisive political issues and descriptions of racially diverse target persons for each issue. Neither liberals’ nor conservatives’ impressions of the target persons were affected by the race of the target, but both were strongly influenced by the target’s political attitudes.

From these findings the researchers conclude that prejudices commonly linked with ideology are most likely derived from perceived ideological differences and not from other characteristics like racial tolerance or intolerance.

Journal References:

J. B. Luguri, J. L. Napier, J. F. Dovidio. Reconstruing Intolerance: Abstract Thinking Reduces Conservatives’ Prejudice Against Nonnormative GroupsPsychological Science, 2012; 23 (7): 756 DOI:10.1177/0956797611433877

J. B. Luguri, J. L. Napier, J. F. Dovidio. Reconstruing Intolerance: Abstract Thinking Reduces Conservatives’ Prejudice Against Nonnormative GroupsPsychological Science, 2012; 23 (7): 756 DOI:10.1177/0956797611433877

 

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Prejudice Comes from a Basic Human Need and Way of Thinking, New Research Suggests

ScienceDaily (Dec. 21, 2011) — Where does prejudice come from? Not from ideology, say the authors of a new paper. Instead, prejudice stems from a deeper psychological need, associated with a particular way of thinking. People who aren’t comfortable with ambiguity and want to make quick and firm decisions are also prone to making generalizations about others.

In a new article published in Current Directions in Psychological Science, a journal of the Association for Psychological Science, Arne Roets and Alain Van Hiel of Ghent University in Belgium look at what psychological scientists have learned about prejudice since the 1954 publication of an influential book, The Nature of Prejudice by Gordon Allport.

People who are prejudiced feel a much stronger need to make quick and firm judgments and decisions in order to reduce ambiguity. “Of course, everyone has to make decisions, but some people really hate uncertainty and therefore quickly rely on the most obvious information, often the first information they come across, to reduce it” Roets says. That’s also why they favor authorities and social norms which make it easier to make decisions. Then, once they’ve made up their mind, they stick to it. “If you provide information that contradicts their decision, they just ignore it.”

Roets argues that this way of thinking is linked to people’s need to categorize the world, often unconsciously. “When we meet someone, we immediately see that person as being male or female, young or old, black or white, without really being aware of this categorization,” he says. “Social categories are useful to reduce complexity, but the problem is that we also assign some properties to these categories. This can lead to prejudice and stereotyping.”

People who need to make quick judgments will judge a new person based on what they already believe about their category. “The easiest and fastest way to judge is to say, for example, ok, this person is a black man. If you just use your ideas about what black men are generally like, that’s an easy way to have an opinion of that person,” Roets says. “You say, ‘he’s part of this group, so he’s probably like this.'”

It’s virtually impossible to change the basic way that people think. Now for the good news: It’s possible to actually also use this way of thinking to reduce people’s prejudice. If people who need quick answers meet people from other groups and like them personally, they are likely to use this positive experience to form their views of the whole group. “This is very much about salient positive information taking away the aversion, anxiety, and fear of the unknown,” Roets says.

Roets’s conclusions suggest that the fundamental source of prejudice is not ideology, but rather a basic human need and way of thinking. “It really makes us think differently about how people become prejudiced or why people are prejudiced,” Roets says. “To reduce prejudice, we first have to acknowledge that it often satisfies some basic need to have quick answers and stable knowledge people rely on to make sense of the world.”

Journal Reference:

Arne Roets and Alain Van Hiel. Allport’s Prejudiced Personality Today: Need for Closure as the Motivated Cognitive Basis of PrejudiceCurrent Directions in Psychological Science, (in press)

 

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Ironic Effects of Anti-Prejudice Messages

ScienceDaily (July 7, 2011) — Organizations and programs have been set up all over the globe in the hopes of urging people to end prejudice. According to a research article, which will be published in an upcoming issue of Psychological Science, a journal of the Association for Psychological Science, such programs may actually increase prejudices.

Lisa Legault, Jennifer Gutsell and Michael Inzlicht, from the University of Toronto Scarborough, were interested in exploring how one’s everyday environment influences people’s motivation toward prejudice reduction.

The authors conducted two experiments which looked at the effect of two different types of motivational intervention — a controlled form (telling people what they should do) and a more personal form (explaining why being non-prejudiced is enjoyable and personally valuable).

In experiment one; participants were randomly assigned one of two brochures to read: an autonomy brochure or a controlling brochure. These brochures discussed a new campus initiative to reduce prejudice. A third group was offered no motivational instructions to reduce prejudice. The authors found that, ironically, those who read the controlling brochure later demonstrated more prejudice than those who had not been urged to reduce prejudice. Those who read the brochure designed to support personal motivation showed less prejudice than those in the other two groups.

In experiment two, participants were randomly assigned a questionnaire, designed to stimulate personal or controlling motivation to reduce prejudice. The authors found that those who were exposed to controlling messages regarding prejudice reduction showed significantly more prejudice than those who did not receive any controlling cues.

The authors suggest that when interventions eliminate people’s freedom to value diversity on their own terms, they may actually be creating hostility toward the targets of prejudice.

According to Dr. Legault, “Controlling prejudice reduction practices are tempting because they are quick and easy to implement. They tell people how they should think and behave and stress the negative consequences of failing to think and behave in desirable ways.” Legault continues, “But people need to feel that they are freely choosing to be nonprejudiced, rather than having it forced upon them.”

Legault stresses the need to focus less on the requirement to reduce prejudices and start focusing more on the reasons why diversity and equality are important and beneficial to both majority and minority group members.

Story Source:

The above story is reprinted from materials provided byAssociation for Psychological Science, via EurekAlert!, a service of AAAS.

Extreme Weather Linked to Global Warming, Nobel Prize-Winning Scientist Says (Science Daily)

New scientific analysis strengthens the view that record-breaking summer heat, crop-withering drought and other extreme weather events in recent years do, indeed, result from human activity and global warming, Nobel Laureate Mario J. Molina, Ph.D. explains. (Credit: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Image by Reto Stöckli (land surface, shallow water, clouds). Enhancements by Robert Simmon (ocean color, compositing, 3D globes, animation). Data and technical support: MODIS Land Group; MODIS Science Data Support Team; MODIS Atmosphere Group; MODIS Ocean Group Additional data: USGS EROS Data Center (topography); USGS Terrestrial Remote Sensing Flagstaff Field Center (Antarctica); Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (city lights).)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 20, 2012) — New scientific analysis strengthens the view that record-breaking summer heat, crop-withering drought and other extreme weather events in recent years do, indeed, result from human activity and global warming, Nobel Laureate Mario J. Molina, Ph.D., said at a conference in Philadelphia on August 20.

Molina, who shared the 1995 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for helping save the world from the consequences of ozone depletion, presented the keynote address at the 244thNational Meeting & Exposition of the American Chemical Society.

“People may not be aware that important changes have occurred in the scientific understanding of the extreme weather events that are in the headlines,” Molina said. “They are now more clearly connected to human activities, such as the release of carbon dioxide ― the main greenhouse gas ― from burning coal and other fossil fuels.”

Molina emphasized that there is no “absolute certainty” that global warming is causing extreme weather events. But he said that scientific insights during the last year or so strengthen the link. Even if the scientific evidence continues to fall short of the absolute certainly measure, the heat, drought, severe storms and other weather extremes may prove beneficial in making the public more aware of global warming and the need for action, said Molina.

“It’s important that people are doing more than just hearing about global warming,” he said. “People may be feeling it, experiencing the impact on food prices, getting a glimpse of what everyday life may be like in the future, unless we as a society take action.”

Molina, who is with the University of California, San Diego, suggested a course of action based on an international agreement like the Montreal Protocol that phased out substances responsible for the depletion of the ozone layer.

“The new agreement should put a price on the emission of greenhouse gases, which would make it more economically favorable for countries to do the right thing. The cost to society of abiding by it would be less than the cost of the climate change damage if society does nothing,” he said.

In the 1970s and 1980s, Molina, F. Sherwood Rowland, Ph.D., and Paul J. Crutzen, Ph.D., established that substances called CFCs in aerosol spray cans and other products could destroy the ozone layer. The ozone layer is crucial to life on Earth, forming a protective shield high in the atmosphere that blocks potentially harmful ultraviolet rays in sunlight. Molina, Rowland and Crutzen shared the Nobel Prize for that research. After a “hole” in that layer over Antarctica was discovered in 1985, scientists established that it was indeed caused by CFCs, and worked together with policymakers and industry representatives around the world to solve the problem. The result was the Montreal Protocol, which phased out the use of CFCs in 1996.

Adopted and implemented by countries around the world, the Montreal Protocol eliminated the major cause of ozone depletion, said Molina, and stands as one of the most successful international agreements. Similar agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol, have been proposed to address climate change. But Molina said these agreements have largely failed.

Unlike the ozone depletion problem, climate change has become highly politicized and polarizing, he pointed out. Only a small set of substances were involved in ozone depletion, and it was relatively easy to get the small number of stakeholders on the same page. But the climate change topic has exploded. “Climate change is a much more pervasive issue,” he explained. “Fossil fuels, which are at the center of the problem, are so important for the economy, and it affects so many other activities. That makes climate change much more difficult to deal with than the ozone issue.”

In addition to a new international agreement, other things must happen, he said. Scientists need to better communicate the scientific facts underlying climate change. Scientists and engineers also must develop cheap alternative energy sources to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

Molina said that it’s not certain what will happen to Earth if nothing is done to slow down or halt climate change. “But there is no doubt that the risk is very large, and we could have some consequences that are very damaging, certainly for portions of society,” he said. “It’s not very likely, but there is some possibility that we would have catastrophes.”

Cloud Brightening to Control Global Warming? Geoengineers Propose an Experiment (Science Daily)

A conceptualized image of an unmanned, wind-powered, remotely controlled ship that could be used to implement cloud brightening. (Credit: John McNeill)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 20, 2012) — Even though it sounds like science fiction, researchers are taking a second look at a controversial idea that uses futuristic ships to shoot salt water high into the sky over the oceans, creating clouds that reflect sunlight and thus counter global warming.

University of Washington atmospheric physicist Rob Wood describes a possible way to run an experiment to test the concept on a small scale in a comprehensive paper published this month in the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society.

The point of the paper — which includes updates on the latest study into what kind of ship would be best to spray the salt water into the sky, how large the water droplets should be and the potential climatological impacts — is to encourage more scientists to consider the idea of marine cloud brightening and even poke holes in it. In the paper, he and a colleague detail an experiment to test the concept.

“What we’re trying to do is make the case that this is a beneficial experiment to do,” Wood said. With enough interest in cloud brightening from the scientific community, funding for an experiment may become possible, he said.

The theory behind so-called marine cloud brightening is that adding particles, in this case sea salt, to the sky over the ocean would form large, long-lived clouds. Clouds appear when water forms around particles. Since there is a limited amount of water in the air, adding more particles creates more, but smaller, droplets.

“It turns out that a greater number of smaller drops has a greater surface area, so it means the clouds reflect a greater amount of light back into space,” Wood said. That creates a cooling effect on Earth.

Marine cloud brightening is part of a broader concept known as geoengineering which encompasses efforts to use technology to manipulate the environment. Brightening, like other geoengineering proposals, is controversial for its ethical and political ramifications and the uncertainty around its impact. But those aren’t reasons not to study it, Wood said.

“I would rather that responsible scientists test the idea than groups that might have a vested interest in proving its success,” he said. The danger with private organizations experimenting with geoengineering is that “there is an assumption that it’s got to work,” he said.

Wood and his colleagues propose trying a small-scale experiment to test feasibility and begin to study effects. The test should start by deploying sprayers on a ship or barge to ensure that they can inject enough particles of the targeted size to the appropriate elevation, Wood and a colleague wrote in the report. An airplane equipped with sensors would study the physical and chemical characteristics of the particles and how they disperse.

The next step would be to use additional airplanes to study how the cloud develops and how long it remains. The final phase of the experiment would send out five to 10 ships spread out across a 100 kilometer, or 62 mile, stretch. The resulting clouds would be large enough so that scientists could use satellites to examine them and their ability to reflect light.

Wood said there is very little chance of long-term effects from such an experiment. Based on studies of pollutants, which emit particles that cause a similar reaction in clouds, scientists know that the impact of adding particles to clouds lasts only a few days.

Still, such an experiment would be unusual in the world of climate science, where scientists observe rather than actually try to change the atmosphere.

Wood notes that running the experiment would advance knowledge around how particles like pollutants impact the climate, although the main reason to do it would be to test the geoengineering idea.

A phenomenon that inspired marine cloud brightening is ship trails: clouds that form behind the paths of ships crossing the ocean, similar to the trails that airplanes leave across the sky. Ship trails form around particles released from burning fuel.

But in some cases ship trails make clouds darker. “We don’t really know why that is,” Wood said.

Despite increasing interest from scientists like Wood, there is still strong resistance to cloud brightening.

“It’s a quick-fix idea when really what we need to do is move toward a low-carbon emission economy, which is turning out to be a long process,” Wood said. “I think we ought to know about the possibilities, just in case.”

The authors of the paper are treading cautiously.

“We stress that there would be no justification for deployment of [marine cloud brightening] unless it was clearly established that no significant adverse consequences would result. There would also need to be an international agreement firmly in favor of such action,” they wrote in the paper’s summary.

There are 25 authors on the paper, including scientists from University of Leeds, University of Edinburgh and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The lead author is John Latham of the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the University of Manchester, who pioneered the idea of marine cloud brightening.

Wood’s research was supported by the UW College of the Environment Institute.

Journal Reference:

J. Latham, K. Bower, T. Choularton, H. Coe, P. Connolly, G. Cooper, T. Craft, J. Foster, A. Gadian, L. Galbraith, H. Iacovides, D. Johnston, B. Launder, B. Leslie, J. Meyer, A. Neukermans, B. Ormond, B. Parkes, P. Rasch, J. Rush, S. Salter, T. Stevenson, H. Wang, Q. Wang, R. Wood. Marine cloud brighteningPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2012; 370 (1974): 4217 DOI:10.1098/rsta.2012.0086

Cientistas apontam problemas da cobertura da imprensa sobre mudanças climáticas (Fapesp)

Especialistas reunidos em São Paulo para debater gestão de riscos dos extremos climáticos manifestam preocupação com dificuldades enfrentadas por jornalistas para lidar com a complexidade do tema (Wikimedia)

21/08/2012

Por Fábio de Castro

Agência FAPESP – Na avaliação de especialistas reunidos em São Paulo para discutir a gestão de riscos dos extremos climáticos e desastres, para que seja possível gerenciar de forma adequada os impactos desses eventos, é fundamental informar a sociedade – incluindo os formuladores de políticas públicas – sobre as descobertas das ciências climáticas.

No entanto, pesquisadores estão preocupados com as dificuldades encontradas na comunicação com a sociedade. A complexidade dos estudos climáticos tende a gerar distorções na cobertura jornalística do tema e o resultado pode ser uma ameaça à confiança do público em relação à ciência.

A avaliação foi feita por participantes do workshop “Gestão dos riscos dos extremos climáticos e desastres na América Central e na América do Sul – o que podemos aprender com o Relatório Especial do IPCC sobre extremos?”, realizado na semana passada na capital paulista.

O evento teve o objetivo de debater as conclusões do Relatório Especial sobre Gestão dos Riscos de Extremos Climáticos e Desastres (SREX, na sigla em inglês) – elaborado e recentemente publicado pelo Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) – e discutir opções para gerenciamento dos impactos dos extremos climáticos, especialmente nas Américas do Sul e Central.

O workshop foi realizado pela FAPESP e pelo Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (Inpe), em parceria com o IPCC, o Overseas Development Institute (ODI) e a Climate and Development Knowledge (CKDN), ambos do Reino Unido, e apoio da Agência de Clima e Poluição do Ministério de Relações Exteriores da Noruega.

Durante o evento, o tema da comunicação foi debatido por autores do IPCC-SREX, especialistas em extremos climáticos, gestores e líderes de instituições de prevenção de desastres.

De acordo com Vicente Barros, do Centro de Investigação do Mar e da Atmosfera da Universidade de Buenos Aires, o IPCC, do qual é membro, entrou há três anos em um processo de reestruturação que compreende uma mudança na estratégia de comunicação.

“A partir de 2009, o IPCC passou a ser atacado violentamente e não estávamos preparados para isso, porque nossa função era divulgar o conhecimento adquirido, mas não traduzi-lo para a imprensa. Temos agora um grupo de jornalistas que procura fazer essa mediação, mas não podemos diluir demais as informações e a última palavra na formulação da comunicação é sempre do comitê executivo, porque o peso político do que é expresso pelo painel é muito grande”, disse Barros.

A linguagem é um grande problema, segundo Barros. Se for muito complexa, não atinge o público. Se for muito simplificada, tende a distorcer as conclusões e disseminar visões que não correspondem à realidade.

“O IPCC trata de problemas muito complexos e admitimos que não podemos fazer uma divulgação que chegue a todos. Isso é um problema. Acredito que a comunicação deve permanecer nas mãos dos jornalistas, mas talvez seja preciso investir em iniciativas de treinamento desses profissionais”, disse.

Fábio Feldman, do Fórum Paulista de Mudanças Climáticas, manifestou preocupação com as dificuldades de comunicação dos cientistas com o público, que, segundo ele, possibilitam que os pesquisadores “céticos” – isto é, que negam a influência humana nos eventos de mudanças climáticas – ganhem cada vez mais espaço na mídia e no debate público.

“Vejo com preocupação um avanço do espaço dado aos negacionistas no debate público. A imprensa acha que é preciso usar necessariamente o princípio do contraditório, dando espaço e importância equânimes para as diferentes posições no debate”, disse.

De acordo com Feldman, os cientistas – especialmente aqueles ligados ao IPCC – deveriam ter uma atitude mais pró-ativa no sentido de se contrapor aos “céticos” no debate público.

Posições diferentes

Para Reynaldo Luiz Victoria, da Coordenação do Programa FAPESP de Pesquisa em Mudanças Climáticas Globais, é importante que a imprensa trate as diferentes posições de modo mais equitativo.

“Há casos específicos em que a imprensa trata questões de maneira pouco equitativa – e eventualmente sensacionalista –, mas acho que nós, como pesquisadores, não temos obrigação de reagir. A imprensa deveria nos procurar para fazer o contraponto e esclarecer o público”, disse Victoria à Agência FAPESP.

Victoria, no entanto, destacou a importância de que os “céticos” também sejam ouvidos. “Alguns são cientistas sérios e merecem um tratamento equitativo. Certamente que não se pode ignorá-los, mas, quando fazem afirmações passíveis de contestação, a imprensa deve procurar alguém que possa dar um contraponto. Os jornalistas precisam nos procurar e não o contrário”, disse.

De modo geral, a cobertura da imprensa sobre mudanças climáticas é satisfatória, segundo Victoria. “Os bons jornais publicam artigos corretos e há jornalistas muito sérios produzindo material de alta qualidade”, destacou.

Para Luci Hidalgo Nunes, professora do Departamento de Geografia da Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp), os negacionistas ganham espaço porque muitas vezes o discurso polêmico tem mais apelo midiático do que a complexidade do conhecimento científico.

“O cientista pode ter um discurso bem fundamentado, mas que é considerado enfadonho pelo público. Enquanto isso, um pesquisador com argumentos pouco estruturados pode fazer um discurso simplificado, portanto atraente para o público, e polêmico, o que rende manchetes”, disse à Agência FAPESP.

Apesar de a boa ciência ter, em relação ao debate público, uma desvantagem inerente à sua complexidade, Nunes acredita ser importante que a imprensa continue pluralista. A pesquisadora publicou um estudo no qual analisa a cobertura do jornal O Estado de S. Paulo sobre mudanças climáticas durante um ano. Segundo Nunes, um dos principais pontos positivos observados consistiu em dar voz às diferentes posições.

“Sou favorável a que a imprensa cumpra seu papel e dê todos os parâmetros, para que haja um debate democrático. Acho que isso está sendo bem feito e a própria imprensa está aberta para nos dar mais espaço. Mas precisamos nos manifestar para criar essas oportunidades”, disse.

Nunes também considera que a cobertura da imprensa sobre mudanças climáticas, de modo geral, tem sido satisfatória, ainda que irregular. “O tema ganha vulto em determinados momentos, mas não se mantém na pauta do noticiário de forma permanente”, disse.

Segundo ela, o assunto sobressaiu especialmente em 2007, com a publicação do primeiro relatório do IPCC, e em 2012 durante a RIO+20.

“Em 2007, a cobertura foi intensa, mas a popularização do tema também deu margem a distorções e exageros. O sensacionalismo é ruim para a ciência, porque faz o tema ganhar as manchetes rapidamente por algum tempo, mas no médio prazo o efeito é inverso: as pessoas percebem os exageros e passam a olhar com descrédito os resultados científicos de modo geral”, disse.

Brazil: Drug dealers say no to crack in Rio (AP)

By JULIANA BARBASSA

Associated Press

Published: Saturday, Aug. 18, 2012

RIO DE JANEIRO — Business was brisk in the Mandela shantytown on a recent night. In the glow of a weak light bulb, customers pawed through packets of powdered cocaine and marijuana priced at $5, $10, $25. Teenage boys with semiautomatic weapons took in money and made change while flirting with girls in belly-baring tops lounging nearby.

Next to them, a gaggle of kids jumped on a trampoline, oblivious to the guns and drug-running that are part of everyday life in this and hundreds of other slums, known as favelas, across this metropolitan area of 12 million people. Conspicuously absent from the scene was crack, the most addictive and destructive drug in the triad that fuels Rio’s lucrative narcotics trade.

Once crack was introduced here about six years ago, Mandela and the surrounding complex of shantytowns became Rio’s main outdoor drug market, a “cracolandia,” or crackland, where users bought the rocks, smoked and lingered until the next hit. Hordes of addicts lived in cardboard shacks and filthy blankets, scrambling for cash and a fix.

Now, there was no crack on the rough wooden table displaying the goods for sale, and the addicts were gone. The change hadn’t come from any police or public health campaign. Instead, the dealers themselves have stopped selling the drug in Mandela and nearby Jacarezinho in a move that traffickers and others say will spread citywide within the next two years.

The drug bosses, often born and raised in the very slums they now lord over, say crack destabilizes their communities, making it harder to control areas long abandoned by the government. Law enforcement and city authorities, however, take credit for the change, arguing that drug gangs are only trying to create a distraction and persuade police to call off an offensive to take back the slums.

Dealers shake their heads, insisting it was their decision to stop selling crack, the crystalized form of cocaine.

“Crack has been nothing but a disgrace for Rio. It’s time to stop,” said the drug boss in charge. He is Mandela’s second-in-command – a stocky man wearing a Lacoste shirt, heavy gold jewelry and a backpack bulging with $100,000 in drugs and cash. At 37, he’s an elder in Rio’s most established faction, the Comando Vermelho, or Red Command. He’s wanted by police, and didn’t want his name published.

He discussed the decision as he watched the night’s profits pile up in neat, rubber-banded stacks from across the narrow street. He kept one hand on his pistol and the other on a crackling radio that squawked out sales elsewhere in the slum and warned of police.

The talk of crack left him agitated; he raised his voice, drawing looks from the fidgety young men across the road. Although crack makes him a lot of money, he has his own reasons to resent the drug; everyone who comes near it does, he said.

His brother – the one who studied, left the shantytown and joined the air force – fell prey to it. Crack users smoke it and often display more addictive behavior. The brother abandoned his family and his job, and now haunts the edges of the slum with other addicts.

“I see this misery,” he said. “I’m a human being too, and I’m a leader here. I want to say I helped stop this.”

For the ban to really take hold, it would need the support of the city’s two other reigning factions: the Amigos dos Amigos, or Friends of Friends, and the Terceiro Comando, Third Command.

That would mean giving up millions in profits. According to an estimate by the country’s Security Committee of the House and the Federal Police, Brazilians consume between 800 kilos and 1.2 tons of crack a day, a total valued at about $10 million.

It’s unclear how much Rio’s traffickers earn from the drug, but police apprehensions show a surge in its availability in the state. In 2008, police seized 14 kilos; two years later the annual seizure came to 200 kilos, according to the Public Security Institute.

Nonetheless, the other gangs are signing up, said attorney Flavia Froes. Her clients include the most notorious figures of Rio’s underbelly, and she has been shuttling between them, visiting favelas and far-flung high-security prisons to talk up the idea.

“They’re joining en masse. They realized that this experience with crack was not good, even though it was lucrative. The social costs were tremendous. This wasn’t a drug for the rich; it was hitting their own communities.”

As Froes walks these slums, gingerly navigating potholed roads in six-inch stiletto heels and rhinestone-studded jeans, men with a gun in each hand defer to her, calling her “doutora,” or doctor, because of her studies, or “senhora,” or ma’am, out of respect.

“While stocks last, they’ll sell. But it’s not being bought anymore,” she said. “Today we can say with certainty that we’re looking at the end of crack in Rio de Janeiro.”

Even those who question the traffickers’ sudden surge of social conscience say the idea of the city’s drug lords coming together to ban crack isn’t far-fetched. After all, a similar deal between factions kept the drug out of Rio for years.

Crack first took hold in Sao Paulo, the country’s business capital, during the 1990s. In the early 2000s, it spread across Brazil in an epidemic reminiscent of the one the U.S. had experienced decades earlier. A recent survey found it was eventually sold or consumed in 98 percent of Brazilian municipalities. Most of the cities were too understaffed, underfunded and uninformed to resist its onslaught.

And yet, an agreement between factions kept crack a rarity in Rio until a handful of years ago, said Mario Sergio Duarte, Rio state’s former police chief.

“Rio was always cocaine and marijuana,” he said. “If drug traffickers are coming up with this strategy of going back to cocaine and marijuana, it’s not because they suddenly developed an awareness, or because they want to be charitable and help the addicts. It’s just that crack brings them too much trouble to be worth it.”

Duarte believes dealers turned to crack when their other business started losing ground within the city.

Police started taking back slums long given over to the drug trade as Rio vied to host the 2014World Cup and the 2016 Olympics. The plan disrupted trade, and the factions began hemorrhaging money, said Duarte. Crack seemed like the solution, and the drug flooded the market.

“Crack was profit; it’s cheap, but it sells. Addiction comes quick. They were trying to make up their losses,” he said.

Soon, the gangs were being haunted by the consequences.

Unlike the customers who came for marijuana or cocaine, dropped cash and left, crack users hung around the sales points, scraping for money for the next hit. They broke the social code that usually maintains a tense calm in the slums; they stole, begged, threatened or sold their bodies to get their next rock. Their presence made the hard life there nearly unbearable.

The Mandela drug boss said crack even sapped the drug kingpins’ authority.

“How can I tell someone he can’t steal, when I know I sold him the drugs that made him this way?” he said.

Many saw their own family members and childhood friends fall under the drug’s spell.

“The same crack I sell to your son is being sold to mine. I talked to one of the pioneers in selling crack in Rio. His son’s using now. Everyone is saying we have to stop.”

In Mandela, residents had to step over crack users on their way between home and work and warn their children to be careful around the “zombies.”

“There were robberies in the favela, violence, people killed in the middle of the street, people having sex or taking a crap anywhere,” said Cleber, an electronics repair shop owner who has lived in Mandela for 16 years. He declined to give his last name because he lives in a neighborhood ruled bygang members, and like many, prefers not to comment publicly.

“Now we’re going out again, we can set up a barbecue pit outside, have a drink with friends, without them gathering around,” he said. “We’re a little more at ease.”

Researcher Ignacio Cano, at the Violence Analysis Center of Rio de Janeiro State University, said crack is still being sold outside only select communities and that it’s hard to tell if the stop is a temporary, local measure or a real shift in operations citywide.

He said unprecedented pressure bore down on drug gangs once they began selling crack. In particular, the addicts’ encampments were sources of social and health problems, drawing the attention of the authorities.

Since March 2011, dawn raids involving police, health and welfare officials began taking users off the streets to offer treatment, food, a checkup and a hot shower. Since then, 4,706 people have cycled through the system. Of those, 663 were children or teenagers.

“I have operations every day, all over Rio,” said Daphne Braga, who coordinates the effort for the city welfare office.

At the same time, crack became such a dramatic problem nationally that the government allocated special funds to combat it, including a $253 million campaign launched by President Dilma Rousseff in May 2010 to stem the drug trade. Last November, another $2 billion were set aside to create treatment centers for addicts and get them off the streets.

In May, 150 federal police officers occupied a Rio favela to implement a pilot program fighting the crack trade and helping users.

“There are many reasons why they might stop,” said Cano.

Crack’s social cost is clear where the drug is still sold, right outside Mandela and Jacarezinho. In the shantytown of Manguinhos, along a violent area known as the Gaza Strip, an army of crack addicts lives in encampments next to a rail line.

Another couple hundred gather inside the slum, buying from a stand inside a little restaurant. Customers eat next to young men with guns and must step around a table laden with packaged drugs and tightly bound wads of cash to use the restroom. Crack users smoke outside, by the lights of a community soccer field where an animated game draws onlookers late into the night.

The Rev. Antonio Carlos Costa, founder of the River of Peace social service group, knows the dealers and believes the ban on crack here is “real, without return, and has a real chance of spreading to other favelas.”

That’s good news for residents, he said, but users will have to migrate to look for drugs, and that might expose them to real risk.

“They won’t be welcome. This society wants them dead,” he said. “This won’t be a problem that can be solved only with money. We’ll need professionals who really take an interest in these people. We’ll need compassion. It’ll be a challenge to our solidarity.”

Also predicting risks, attorney Froes has prepared a civil court action demanding local and state governments prepare treatment centers for users.

“There will be a great weaning of all these addicts as they’re deprived of drugs,” she said. “We’re not prepared to take on all the people who will need care.”

The addicts recognize the difficulty of their own rehabilitation.

One 16-year-old boy laying on a bare piece of foam said he’d studied until the 2nd grade but couldn’t read. Now, he was going on his third year in the streets.

“Who is going to give me work?” he asked.

Sharing his mattress was a 28-year-old woman. It had been three years since she last saw her three children and parents in Niteroi, the city across the bay from Rio. She was filthy, all of her body bearing the marks of life on the streets: bruises and open wounds, missing front teeth, matted hair.

“I wasn’t born like this. You think my parents want to see me now?” she asked. “I can’t go back there.”

A teenager with jaundiced, bloodshot eyes said she couldn’t remember how long she’d been on the streets, or her age.

She knew her name – Natalia Gonzales – and that she was born in 1997.

“I have nowhere to go,” she said, tears rolling down her cheeks. Softly, she started to sing a hymn, and its call for salvation in the afterlife took on an urgent note.

“God, come save me, extend your hand,” she sang. “Heal my heart, make me live again.”

EBay bans sale of spells and hexes (CNN)

By Erin Kim @CNNMoneyTech August 16, 2012: 4:27 PM ET

Starting in September, eBay is blocking the sale of potions and other magical goods.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Sorry, love spell vendors: eBay is cracking down on the sale of magical wares.

Beginning in September, the site is banning the sale of “advice, spells, curses, hexing, conjuring, magic, prayers, blessing services, magic potions, [and] healing sessions,” according to a policy update.

The company is also eliminating its category listings for psychic readings and tarot card sessions.

The update is a part of a “multi-year effort…to build trust in the marketplace and support sellers,” eBay (EBAYFortune 500) wrote in its company blog.

Has anyone actually been buying magic on eBay? It seems so: The site’s “spells and potions” category currently has more than 6,000 active listings and happy feedback from quite a few satisfied buyers.

“Best spell caster on Ebay,” one customer wrote after a recent purchase.

“Wonderful post-spells communication!” another raved. “We bought 4 spells! Highly Recommend!”

Spells and hexes aside, eBay is rolling out a long list of rule tweaks, as it does several times a year. For example, buyers will now be required to contact sellers before getting eBay involved with any issues regarding a purchase. Sellers will also be subject to a fee for ending an auction earlier than planned.

EBay also banned the sale of “work from home businesses & information,” a category that is often abused by scammers.

EBay isn’t the only online marketplace culling its listings. Etsy, a platform for homemade goods, also recently prohibited the sale of various items, including drug paraphernalia and body parts. To top of page

First Published: August 16, 2012: 4:27 PM ET

*   *   *

Etsy blocks sales of drugs and human remains

By Erin Kim @CNNMoneyTech August 10, 2012: 5:55 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Etsy has become the go-to spot for homemade jewelry, knickknacks and household goods. Apparently, some have also been using the online marketplace to sell everything from drugs to human remains.

Now Etsy is cracking down.

The online marketplace recently revised its policies, excluding from its list of sellable items such products as tobacco, hazardous materials and body parts. (Hair and teeth are still OK).

“Odd as it may sound, we’ve spent long hours over the past several months extensively researching some offbeat and fascinating topics, from issues surrounding the sale of human bones to the corrosive and toxic properties of mercury,” the company wrote on its official blog on Wednesday.

Etsy says the changes are made in order to comply with legal rules and restrictions.

“But beyond that, when it comes right down to it, some things just aren’t in the spirit of Etsy,” the online company wrote. “While we understand that it is possible for certain items to be carefully and legally bought and sold, Etsy is just not the right venue for them.”

The new policy prohibits the sale of human body parts, including but not limited to “things such as skulls, bones, articulated skeletons, bodily fluids, preserved tissues or organs, and other similar products.”

Etsy banned most drug paraphernalia, though the company said it is not explicitly banning the sale of medical drugs. Instead, it’s asking that sellers remove any claims of “cure or relief of a health condition or illness.”

That set off a slew of angry posts from Etsy sellers in the company’s public forums.

“Now I need to change near[ly] a quarter of my listings or remove them,”wrote Etsy user Chrissy-jo, who operates an online store called KindredImages. “How am I going explain the use of a salve or even an aromatherapy eye pillow without making the claim that it aids in healing wounds or it helps relieve migraines?”

Another Etsy user named Irina, who runs PheonixBotanicals, wrote: “As an herbal crafter, I find the idea of being banned from listing traditional uses and folklore of plants quite disheartening.”

Sellers on Etsy operate their own shops, where they vend goods that are usually homemade. The online store plans to reach out to individual sellers to ask them to either remove a problematic listing or make changes to align with the company’s policy. To top of page

First Published: August 10, 2012: 4:10 PM ET

Gastos no País com desastres crescem 15 vezes em seis anos (O Estado de são Paulo)

JC e-mail 4564, de 17 de Agosto de 2012.

Relatório do IPCC aponta que eventos extremos aliados à alta exposição humana a situações de risco podem aumentar tragédias.

Nos últimos 30 anos, o aumento da ocorrência de desastres naturais no mundo foi responsável por perdas que saltaram de poucos bilhões de dólares em 1980 para mais de 200 bilhões em 2010. No Brasil, em somente seis anos (2004-2010), os gastos das três esferas governamentais com a reconstrução de estruturas afetadas nesses eventos evoluíram de US$ 65 milhões para mais de US$ 1 bilhão – um aumento de mais de 15 vezes.

Os dados foram citados ontem durante evento de divulgação do Relatório Especial sobre Gestão de Riscos de Extremos Climáticos e Desastres (SREX), do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC). A elaboração do documento foi motivada justamente por conta dessa elevação já observada de desastres e perdas. O alerta, porém, é para o futuro – a expectativa é de que essas situações ocorram com frequência cada vez maior em consequência do aquecimento global.

Alguns dos autores do relatório estiverem presentes ontem em São Paulo, em evento promovido pela Fapesp e pelo Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (Inpe), para divulgar para a comunidade científica e tomadores de decisão os resultados específicos de América Latina e Caribe. A principal conclusão é que para evitar os desastres naturais, os cuidados vão muito além de lidar com o clima.

Vulnerabilidade – “O desastre natural não tem nada de natural. É a conjunção do evento natural com a vulnerabilidade e a exposição das populações a situações críticas”, afirma Vicente Barros, da Universidade de Buenos Aires e um dos coordenadores do relatório.

Segundo ele, desde 1950 vem ocorrendo um aumento do número de dias extremamente quentes e com chuvas extremas. Apesar disso, afirma o climatologista Carlos Nobre, co-autor do trabalho, o que foi considerado como fator determinante para os desastres foi a maior exposição dos seres humanos por conta do aumento do adensamento urbano. No final das contas, acaba sendo um problema de planejamento urbano.

Com base nas pesquisas existentes, ainda não dá para dizer com elevado grau de confiança que esse aumento de eventos extremos já seja resultado das mudanças climáticas. Mas para o futuro a indicação é de que o aquecimento possivelmente irá impulsioná-los. Situações consideradas hoje extremas poderão se tornar mais comuns – chuvas ou secas que acontecem a cada 20 anos, poderão aparecer a cada cinco, dois ou até anualmente. Outra tendência também é que elas possam se inverter, chuva forte num ano, seca em outro.

Independentemente do clima, porém, o relatório alerta que o risco de desastres continuará subindo uma vez que mais pessoas estarão em situação vulnerável. “É daí que virão os problemas. É um alerta para pensarmos em formas de adaptação. O Nordeste teve uma grande seca neste ano e o que o governo fez? Mandou cesta básica. A população, assim, não se adapta”, afirma o pesquisador José Marengo, do Inpe.

Além de alertar para ações dos governos, os pesquisadores chamaram a atenção também para a necessidade de mais estudos regionais. A confiança sobre o que é mais provável de acontecer, principalmente na Amazônia, ainda não é alta. Uma das ferramentas para isso é o desenvolvimento de modelos climáticos regionais. O projeto de um está sendo coordenado pelo Inpe e pela Fapesp, que pode estar pronto em até um ano, adaptado para a realidade brasileira.

A desigualdade social na Argentina (Luis Nassif)

Enviado por luisnassif, sex, 17/08/2012 – 14:17

Argentina demanda políticas públicas sociais unificadas que efetivem os direitos humanos

Por Maíra Vasconcelos, especial para o blog

O expressivo crescimento econômico experimentado pela Argentina, entre 2003 e 2007, passada a crise de 2001/2002, não representou em igual escala desenvolvimento social ao país. Ainda que indicadores socioeconômicos demonstrem algumas melhorias nos índices de pobreza e indigência, especialistas destacam a necessidade da construção de projetos de políticas públicas que unifiquem as demandas sociais e visem o cumprimento total dos direitos humanos.

Cerca de 33% das crianças e adolescentes na Argentina, menores de 18 anos, nos centros urbanos e rurais encontram-se na linha de pobreza, e 8,5% em estado de indigência. Respectivamente, ambos indicadores referentes a 2011, representam queda de 7,2% e 4,5% em relação a 2010. Os dados foram apresentados no último dia 14 de agosto, no informe “A Infância Argentina Sujeito de Direito”, do Observatório da Dívida Social Argentina (ODSA), na sede da Pontifícia Universidade Católica Argentina (UCA).

De acordo com a investigadora Laura Pautassi, membro do Conselho Nacional de Investigações Científicas e Técnicas (Conicet), e do Instituto de Investigações Jurídicas e Sociais A. Gioja, da Faculdade de Direito da Universidade de Buenos Aires (UBA), falta integração nas políticas sociais do Estado, para que o funcionamento em conjunto desses programas possa suprir as carências não só no que diz respeito ao ingresso econômico.

“Temos um conjunto de melhorias econômicas importantes, após a crise de 2001, mas as políticas públicas estão muito divididas. Uma para assalariados formais e outro tipo são as políticas assistenciais, onde há muitos projetos, alguns de transferência de ingresso, e outros mais globais como pode ser considerada a “Asignação Universal por Filho”, afirmou Pautassi.

O projeto “Asignação Universal por Filho” foi criado em 2009, durante o primeiro mandato da presidente Cristina Kirchner, hoje, em torno de 3,5 milhões de crianças e jovens são beneficiados.

Entre os resultados divulgados pelo ODSA, em relação à infância e adolescência, um destaque é o salto significativo no acesso à internet, que passou de 29,3%, em 2007, para 52,7%, em 2011, entre os adolescentes de13 a17 anos.

Por outro lado, a estrutura familiar marca sérios problemas como, por exemplo, as agressões físicas sofridas em casa saltaram de 31,6%, em 2007, para 36,4% em 2011, no total de aproximadamente 12,3 milhões de crianças e adolescentes.

Indicadores de Direitos Humanos

Instrumentalizar a medição da pobreza e indigência com indicadores não apenas socioeconômicos, mas que permitam visualizar os resultados do cumprimento dos direitos humanos na sociedade. Para combater e erradicar a pobreza e indigência na Argentina, investigadores afirmam que apenas a “visão monetária” limita a percepção das demandas para obtenção de ferramentas de trabalho que contribuam à formulação de exigências e propostas ao Estado.

Segundo a investigadora Laura Pautassi, recentemente a Organização dos Estados Americanos (OEA) aprovou um instrumento para controlar o cumprimento das obrigações, por parte das 16 nações que ratificaram o “Protocolo de São Salvador”. Assim, deverão ser desenvolvidos indicadores específicos, que não englobam apenas dados socioeconômicos, mas também permitem mesurar o cumprimento ou violação dos direitos humanos.

“Hoje podemos ver desigualdades que antes não eram medidas, a desigualdade étnica, socioeconômica, de gênero. Mas as variáveis consideradas para avaliar os direitos humanos são diferentes daquelas dispostas para medir índices socioeconômicos, pois o que avaliam é a efetiva execução dos direitos”, ressaltou Pautassi.

Climate change and the Syrian uprising (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)

BY SHAHRZAD MOHTADI | 16 AUGUST 2012

Article Highlights

  • A drought unparalleled in recent Syrian history lasted from 2006 to 2010 and led to an unprecedented mass migration of 1.5 million people from farms to urban centers.
  • Because the Assad regime’s economic policies had largely ignored water issues and sustainable agriculture, the drought destroyed many farming communities and placed great strain on urban populations.
  • Although not the leading cause of the Syrian rebellion, the drought-induced migration from farm to city clearly contributed to the uprising and serves as a warning of the potential impact of climate change on political stability.

Two days short of Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak’s resignation, Al Jazeera published anarticle, headlined “A Kingdom of Silence,” that contended an uprising was unlikely in Syria. The article cited the country’s “popular president, dreaded security forces, and religious diversity” as reasons that the regime of Bashar al-Assad would not be challenged, despite the chaos and leadership changes already wrought by the so-called Arab Spring. Less than one month later, security forces arrested a group of schoolchildren in the Syrian city of Dara’a, the country’s southern agricultural hub, for scrawling anti-government slogans on city walls. Subsequent protests illustrated the chasm between the regime’s public image — encapsulated in the slogan “Unity, Freedom and Socialism” — and a reality of widespread public disillusion with Assad and his economic policies.

Among the many historical, political, and economic factors contributing to the Syrian uprising, one has been devastating to Syria, yet remains largely unnoticed by the outside world. That factor is the complex and subtle, yet powerful role that climate change has played in affecting the stability and longevity of the state.

The land now encompassed by Syria is widely credited as being the place where humans first experimented with agriculture and cattle herding, some 12,000 years ago. Today, the World Bank predicts the area will experience alarming effects of climate change, with the annual precipitation level shifting toward a permanently drier condition, increasing the severity and frequency of drought.

From 1900 until 2005, there were six droughts of significance in Syria; the average monthly level of winter precipitation during these dry periods was approximately one-third of normal. All but one of these droughts lasted only one season; the exception lasted two. Farming communities were thus able to withstand dry periods by falling back on government subsidies and secondary water resources. This most recent, the seventh drought, however, lasted from 2006 to 2010, an astounding four seasons — a true anomaly in the past century. Furthermore, the average level of precipitation in these four years was the lowest of any drought-ridden period in the last century.

While impossible to deem one instance of drought as a direct result of anthropogenic climate change, a 2011 report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration regarding this recent Syrian drought states: “Climate change from greenhouse gases explained roughly half the increased dryness of 1902-2010.” Martin Hoerling, the lead researcher of the study, explains: “The magnitude and frequency of the drying that has occurred is too great to be explained by natural variability alone. This is not encouraging news for a region that already experiences water stress, because it implies natural variability alone is unlikely to return the region’s climate to normal.” The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that global warming will induce droughts even more severe in this region in the coming decades.

It is estimated that the Syrian drought has displaced more than 1.5 million people; entire families of agricultural workers and small-scale farmers moved from the country’s breadbasket region in the northeast to urban peripheries of the south. The drought tipped the scale of an unbalanced agricultural system that was already feeling the weight of policy mismanagement and unsustainable environmental practices. Further, lack of contingency planning contributed to the inability of the system to cope with the aftermath of the drought. Decades of poorly planned agricultural policies now haunt Syria’s al-Assad regime.

An unsustainable history. Hafez al-Assad — the father of the current president, Bashar al-Assad — ruled Syria for three decades in a fairly non-religious and paradoxical way. To some degree, he modernized the nation’s economy and opened it to the outside world; at the same time, his regime was infamous for repression and the murder of citizens. The elder al-Assad relied on support from the rural masses to maintain his authority, and during his rule, the agricultural sector became one of the most important pillars of the economy. In a 1980 address to the nation, he said: “I am first and last — and of this I hope every Syrian citizen and every Arab outside of Syria will take cognizance — a peasant and the son of a peasant. To lie amidst the spikes of grain or on the threshing floor is, in my eyes, worth all the palaces in the world.” Hafez al-Assad assured the Syrian people of their right to food security and economic stability, granting subsidies to reduce the price of food, oil, and water. The regime emphasized food self-sufficiency, first achieved with wheat in the 1980s. Cotton, a water-intensive crop requiring irrigation, was heavily promoted as a “strategic crop,” at one point becoming Syria’s second-largest export, after oil. As agricultural production swelled, little to no attention was paid to the environmental effects of such short-term, unsustainable agricultural goals.

With a steadfast emphasis on quick agricultural and industrial advancements, the Baathist regime did little to promote the sustainable use of water. In the two decades before the current drought, the state invested heavily in irrigation systems — yet they remain underdeveloped, extremely inefficient, and insufficient. The majority of irrigation systems use groundwater as their main source, because the amount of water from rivers is inadequate. As of 2005, the government began requiring licenses to dig agricultural wells. There are claims that the regime wishes to keep the Kurdish-majority region in the northeast of the country underdeveloped and has denied licenses to some farmers in the region. Whatever the reasons, well licenses are generally difficult to obtain; as a result, more than half the country’s wells are dug illegally and are therefore unregulated. Groundwater reserves PDF in the years leading up to the drought were rapidly depleted.

Unheeded warnings. In 2001, the World Bank warned PDF, “The (Syrian) Government will need to recognize that achieving food security with respect to wheat and other cereals in the short-term as well as the encouragement of water-intensive cotton appear to be undermining Syria’s security over the long-term by depleting available groundwater resources.” With energy and water heavily subsidized by the state, farmers were further encouraged to increase production rather than set sustainable goals.

The price of wheat skyrocketed in 2005, and an overconfident Syrian government sold much of its emergency wheat reserve. In 2008, due to the drought, the Syrian government was forced to concede that its policy of self-sufficiency had failed, and for the first time in two decades it began importing wheat. Meanwhile, nearly 90 percent of the barley crop failed, doubling the price of animal feed in the first year of the drought alone. Small livestock herders in the northeast have lost 70 percent and more of their herds, and many have been forced to migrate. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, one-fourth of the country’s herds were lost as a result of the drought.

In recent years, Assad’s promises of food security have vanished; the United Nationsreports that the diet of 80 percent of those severely affected by the drought now consists largely of bread and sugared tea. For those who have remained in the nearly deserted rural communities of Syria’s northeast, food prices have skyrocketed, and 80 percent of residents in the drought-stricken regions are living under the poverty threshold. In 2003, agriculture accounted for one-fourth of Syria’s gross domestic product; in 2008, a year into the drought, that fraction was just 17 percent. The government’s drought management has been reactive, untimely, poorly coordinated, and poorly targeted, according to the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. PDF

The chaotic result. Since the drought began, temporary settlements composed largely of displaced rural people have formed on the outskirts of Damascus, Hama, Homs, Aleppo, and Dara’a — the latter city being the site of the first significant protest in the country in March 2011. This migration has exacerbated economic strains already caused by nearly two million refugees from neighboring Iraq and Palestine. A confidential cable from the American embassy in Damascus to the US State Department, written shortly after the drought began, warned of the unraveling social and economic fabric of Syria’s rural farming communities due to the drought. It noted that the mass migration “could act as a multiplier on social and economic pressures already at play and undermine stability in Syria.” Reporting during the uprising in late 2011, the late New York Times correspondent Anthony Shadid recounts: “There’s that sense of corruption in the society itself, that the society itself is falling apart, being pulled apart; that the countryside is miserable; that there’s nothing being done to make lives better there.” Reports show that the earliest points of unrest were those that were most economically devastated by the drought and served as migratory settlement points.

“The regime’s failure to put in place economic measures to alleviate the effects of drought was a critical driver in propelling such massive mobilizations of dissent,” concludes Suzanne Saleeby, a contributor to Jadaliyya, a digital magazine produced by the Arab Studies Institute. “In these recent months, Syrian cities have served as junctures where the grievances of displaced rural migrants and disenfranchised urban residents meet and come to question the very nature and distribution of power.”

The considerations that impel an individual to protest in streets that are known to be lined by armed security forces extend beyond an abstract desire for democracy. Only a sense of extreme desperation and hopelessness can constitute the need — rather than a mere desire — to bring change to a country’s economic, political, and social systems. A combination of stress factors resulting from policies of economic liberalization — including growing income disparities and the geographic limitations of the economic reforms — shattered the Syrian regime’s projected image of stability. Even if it was not the leading cause of the Syrian rebellion, the drought and resulting migration played an important role in triggering the civil unrest now underway in Syria.

The drought in Syria is one of the first modern events in which a climactic anomaly resulted in mass migration and contributed to state instability. This is a lesson and a warning for the greater catalyst that climate change will become in a region already under the strains of cultural polarity, political repression, and economic inequity.

No Vale do Ribeira, Defensoria Pública defende comunidades tradicionais contra corrupção e mercado de carbono (Racismo Ambiental)

Por racismoambiental, 24/06/2012 11:45

Tania Pacheco*

“Posto diante de todos estes homens reunidos, de todas estas mulheres, de todas estas crianças (sede fecundos, multiplicai-vos e enchei a terra, assim lhes fora mandado), cujo suor não nascia do trabalho que não tinham, mas da agonia insuportável de não o ter, Deus arrependeu-se dos males que havia feito e permitido, a um ponto tal que, num arrebato de contrição, quis mudar o seu nome para um outro mais humano. Falando à multidão, anunciou: “A partir de hoje chamar-me-eis Justiça”. E a multidão respondeu-lhe: “Justiça, já nós a temos, e não nos atende”. Disse Deus: “Sendo assim, tomarei o nome de Direito”. E a multidão tornou a responder-lhe: “Direito, já nós o temos, e não nos conhece”. E Deus: “Nesse caso, ficarei com o nome de Caridade, que é um nome bonito”. Disse a multidão: “Não necessitamos de caridade, o que queremos é uma Justiça que se cumpra e um Direito que nos respeite”. José Saramago (Prefácio à obra Terra, de Sebastião Salgado).

O trecho acima foi retirado de uma peça jurídica. Um mandado de segurança com pedido de liminar impetrado no dia 6 de junho pelos Defensores Thiago de Luna Cury e Andrew Toshio Hayama, respectivamente da 2ª e da 3ª Defensorias Publicas de Registro, São Paulo, contra o Prefeito de Iporanga, região de Lageado, Vale do Ribeira. Seu objetivo: impedir que, seguindo uma prática que vem se tornando constante no estado, a autoridade municipal expulse comunidades tradicionais e desaproprie vastas extensões de terras, transformando-as em Parques Naturais a serem transacionados no mercado de carbono.

Para ganhar dinheiro a qualquer custo, não interessa investigar se nessas terras há comunidades tradicionais, quilombolas e camponeses. Não interessa se o Direito à Consulta Prévia e Informada estipulado pela Convenção 169 da OIT foi respeitado. Não interessa, inclusive, se, caso audiências públicas tivessem sido realizadas, as comunidades teriam condições de entender plenamente o que estava sendo proposto e decidir se seria de seu interesse abandonar seus territórios, suas tradições, suas gentes, uma vez que nesse tipo de unidade de conservação integral não pode haver moradores. Em parcerias com empresas e ONGs fajutas, o esquema é montado; de uma penada decretado; e o lucro é garantido e dividido entre os integrantes das quadrilhas.

Mas não foi bem assim que aconteceu em Iporanga. A Defensoria Pública agiu, e agiu pela Justiça e pelo Direito, de forma indignada, culta, forte, poética e, sempre, muito bem fundamentada nas leis. E coube ao Juiz Raphael Garcia Pinto, de Eldorado, São Paulo, reconhecê-lo em decisão do dia 11 de junho de 2012.

Este Blog defende intransigentemente a “democratização do sistema de Justiça”. E tanto no mandado como na decisão é um exemplo disso que temos presente: da prática da democracia pelos operadores do Direito. Por isso fazemos questão de socializá-los, não só como uma homenagem aos Defensores Thiago de Luna Cury e Andrew Toshio Hayama (e também ao Juiz Raphael Garcia Pinto), mas também como um exemplo a ser seguido Brasil afora, como forma de defender as comunidades e honrar a tod@s nós.

Para ver o mandado de segurança clique AQUI. Para ver a decisão clique AQUI. Boa leitura.

* Com informações enviadas por Luciana Zaffalon.

Traços exóticos da ‘partícula de Deus’ surpreendem físicos (Folha de são Paulo)

JC e-mail 4559, de 10 de Agosto de 2012.

Estudo com participação de brasileiro indica que bóson de Higgs pode não se encaixar em teoria mais aceita hoje. Análise preliminar dá pistas de partículas ainda desconhecidas; outros cientistas pedem cautela com os dados.

A partícula de Deus está, ao que parece, do jeito que o diabo gosta: malcomportada. É o que indica uma análise preliminar de dados coletados no LHC, maior acelerador de partículas do mundo.

O trabalho, feito por Oscar Éboli, do Instituto de Física da Universidade de São Paulo (USP), sugere que o chamado bóson de Higgs, que seria responsável por dar massa a tudo o que existe, não está se portando como deveria, a julgar pela teoria que previu sua existência, o Modelo Padrão. Se confirmado, o comportamento anômalo da partícula seria a deixa para uma nova era da física.

A descoberta do possível bóson, anunciada com estardalhaço no mês passado, foi comemorada como a finalização de uma etapa gloriosa no estudo das partículas fundamentais da matéria. Sua existência, em resumo, explicaria porque o Sol pode produzir sua energia e criaturas como nós podem existir.

Dada sua importância para a consistência do Universo (e fazendo uma analogia com a história bíblica da torre de Babel), o físico ganhador do Nobel Leon Lederman deu ao bóson o apelido de “partícula de Deus”.

Para analisar o bóson de Higgs, é preciso primeiro produzir uma colisão entre prótons em altíssima velocidade – função primordial do LHC. Então, do impacto de alta energia, surgem montes de novas partículas, dentre as quais o Higgs, que rapidamente decai, como se diz.

É que, por ser muito instável, o bóson se “decompõe” quando a energia da colisão diminui. Aparecem, no lugar dele, outras partículas. É esse subproduto que pode ser detectado e indicar a existência do bóson de Higgs. Contudo, isso exige a realização de muitos impactos, até que as estatísticas comecem a sugerir a presença do procurado bóson.

Os dados coletados até aqui são suficientes para apontar a existência da partícula, mas suas características específicas ainda não puderam ser determinadas. “Estamos ainda num estágio inicial da exploração das propriedades da dela”, diz Éboli. “Contudo, há uma indicação de que o Higgs decaia mais em dois fótons [partículas de luz] do que seria esperado no Modelo Padrão.”

Os resultados dessa análise preliminar foram divulgados no Arxiv.org, repositório de estudos de física na internet, e abordados na revista “Pesquisa Fapesp”.

Surpresa bem-vinda – A novidade anima os cientistas. “Para a maioria dos físicos, o Modelo Padrão é uma boa representação da natureza, mas não é a teoria final”, afirma Éboli. “Se de fato for confirmado que o Higgs está decaindo mais que o esperado em dois fótons, isso pode significar que novas partículas podem estar dentro do alcance de descoberta do LHC.”

Poderia ser o primeiro vislumbre de um novo “zoológico” de tijolos elementares da matéria. Previa-se que essas partículas exóticas começassem a aparecer com as energias elevadas do LHC.

Tudo muito interessante, mas nada resolvido. “É um trabalho muito sério, mas eu acho que ainda é muito cedo para se tirar qualquer conclusão se se trata ou não do Higgs padrão”, afirma Sérgio Novaes, pesquisador da Unesp que participa de um dos experimentos que detectaram o bóson de Higgs. “Até o final do ano as coisas estarão um pouco mais claras”, avalia ele.

População indígena no País cresceu 205% em duas décadas (Agência Brasil)

JC e-mail 4559, de 10 de Agosto de 2012.

No contexto do dia 9 de agosto, Dia Internacional dos Povos Indígenas, lideranças realizaram um protesto na sede da Advocacia Geral da União (AGU) para apelar pela suspensão da portaria 303, que autoriza a intervenção em terras indígenas sem a necessidade de consultar os índios.

Hoje (10), Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) divulgou os dados do Censo 2010 que mostram que os índios no Brasil somam 896,9 mil pessoas, de 305 etnias, que falam 274 línguas indígenas. É a primeira vez que o órgão coleta informações sobre a etnia dos povos. O levantamento marca também a retomada da investigação sobre as línguas indígenas, parada por 60 anos.

Com base nos dados do Censo 2010, o IBGE revela que a população indígena no País cresceu 205% desde 1991, quando foi feito o primeiro levantamento no modelo atual. À época, os índios somavam 294 mil. O número chegou a 734 mil no Censo de 2000, 150% de aumento na comparação com 1991.

A pesquisa mostra que, dos 896,9 mil índios do País, mais da metade (63,8%) vivem em área rural. A situação é o inverso da de 2000, quando mais da metade estavam em área urbana (52%).

Na avaliação do IBGE, a explicação para o crescimento da população indígena pode estar na queda da taxa de fecundidade das mulheres em áreas rurais, apesar de o índice de 2010 não estar fechado ainda. Entre 1991 e 2000, essa taxa passou de 6,4 filhos por mulher para 5,8.

Outro fator que pode explicar o aumento do número de índios é o processo de etnogênese, quando há “reconstrução das comunidades indígenas”, que supostamente não existiam mais, explica o professor de antropologia da Universidade de Campinas (Unicamp), José Maurício Arruti.

Os dados do IBGE indicam que a maioria dos índios (57,7%) vive em 505 terras indígenas reconhecidas pelo governo até o dia 31 de dezembro de 2010, período de avaliação da pesquisa. Essas áreas equivalem a 12,5% do território nacional, sendo que maior parte fica na Região Norte – a mais populosa em indígenas (342 mil). Já na Região Sudeste, 84% dos 99,1 mil índios estão fora das terras originárias. Em seguida vem o Nordeste (54%).

Para chegar ao número total de índios, o IBGE somou aqueles que se autodeclararam indígenas (817,9 mil) com 78,9 mil que vivem em terras indígenas, mas não tinham optado por essa classificação ao responder à pergunta sobre cor ou raça. Para esse grupo, foi feita uma segunda pergunta, indagando se o entrevistado se considerava índio. O objetivo foi evitar distorções.

A responsável pela pesquisa, Nilza Pereira, explicou que a categoria índios foi inventada pela população não índia e, por isso, alguns se confundiram na autodeclaração e não se disseram indígenas em um primeiro momento. “Para o índio, ele é um xavante, um kaiapó, da cor parda, verde e até marrom”, justificou.

A terra indígena mais populosa no País é a Yanomami, com 25,7 mil habitantes (5% do total) distribuídos entre o Amazonas e Roraima. Já a etnia Tikúna (AM) é mais numerosa, com 46 mil indivíduos, sendo 39,3 mil na terra indígena e os demais fora. Em seguida, vem a etnia Guarani Kaiowá (MS), com 43 mil índios, dos quais 35 mil estão na terra indígena e 8,1 mil vivem fora.

O Censo 2010 também revelou que 37,4% índios com mais de 5 anos de idade falam línguas indígenas, apesar de anos de contato com não índios. Cerca de 120 mil não falam português. Os povos considerados índios isolados, pelas limitações da própria política de contato, com objetivo de preservá-los, não foram entrevistados e não estão contabilizados no Censo 2010.

Ensino público manda 45% dos alunos às universidades federais (Valor Econômico)

JC e-mail 4559, de 10 de Agosto de 2012.

De acordo com o estudo “Perfil Socioeconômico e Cultural dos Estudantes de Graduação das Universidades Federais Brasileiras”, concluído pelo Fórum Nacional de Pró-Reitores de Assuntos Comunitários e Estudantis (Fonaprace) em julho de 2011, 45% dos cerca de 900 mil alunos matriculados nas 59 instituições da rede de ensino superior do País vieram do ensino médio público.

No que se refere especificamente à obrigatoriedade de destinar 50% das vagas nas universidades federais a alunos que cursaram o ensino médio em escolas públicas, a lei de cotas aprovada na terça-feira (7) vai causar um impacto muito menor no atual sistema de matrículas do que a polêmica que tem gerado.

De acordo com o estudo “Perfil Socioeconômico e Cultural dos Estudantes de Graduação das Universidades Federais Brasileiras”, levantamento feito pelo Fórum Nacional de Pró-Reitores de Assuntos Comunitários e Estudantis (Fonaprace) entre outubro e novembro de 2010 e concluído em julho de 2011, 45% dos cerca de 900 mil alunos matriculados nas 59 instituições da rede de ensino superior do País vieram do ensino médio público.

A terceira edição do estudo – a primeira foi produzida em 1996-1997, mostra que os maiores percentuais de alunos oriundos das escolas públicas são nas regiões Norte, com 71,5%, e Sul (50,5%). Nordeste e Centro-Oeste vêm em seguida com, respectivamente, 41,5% e 40,5%. O Sudeste é a região com o menor índice: 37%.

O “Perfil Socioeconômico” é uma pesquisa amostral do Fonaprace baseado no conjunto dos estudantes das universidades federais matriculados nos cursos presenciais de graduação. Adotou-se um nível de confiabilidade de 95% e erro amostral de 5% por instituição. A base de dados do foi fornecida pela Secretaria de Ensino Superior do Ministério da Educação (Sesu-MEC) e passou por um processo de validação com cada universidade participante, que respondeu questionários quantitativos e qualitativos num sistema online.

Rosana Pereira Parente, pró-reitora de graduação da Universidade Federal do Amazonas (Ufam), integrante do Fonaprace, observa que uma política de Estado de ação afirmativa para equalizar o acesso ao ensino superior é importante por combater a desigualdade no País, mas um modelo único para realidades diferentes poder ser considerada “uma estratégia complicada”. “Algumas particularidades devem ser observadas, aqui na Região Norte o mercado privado da educação básica não é tão forte quanto nos grandes centros e temos mais índios que negros e pardos. Com a lei, ações afirmativas que temos aqui são prejudicadas”, pondera Rosana.

Na Ufam, a criação de novas políticas de cotas é discutida por um grupo específico dentro do conselho universitário. No momento, a instituição dá prioridade à entrada de 50% via Exame Nacional do Ensino Médio (Enem) e o vestibular contínuo dá os outros 50% das vagas a alunos do ensino médio – eles fazem “minivestibulares” desde o primeiro ano do ensino médio. “Mas queremos instituir ações que beneficiem alunos de baixa renda”, acrescenta Rosana.

Uma das principais conclusões do estudo é que o número de estudantes negros, pardos e índios e pobres aumentou nos últimos anos, tópicos também contemplados na lei de cotas aprovada nesta semana. Os responsáveis pela pesquisa sugerem que, devido a esse resultado, é urgente ampliar os investimentos na política de assistência estudantil.

“Já existem pesquisas no Brasil que tentam monitorar o avanço das políticas afirmativas na educação. Agora, com uma lei nacional, o novo modelo tem de vir acompanhado de ações de assistência estudantil para garantir não só o acesso, mas a permanência desse ‘novo’ aluno”, avalia Dalila Andrade Oliveira, professora da Faculdade de Educação da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG) e presidente da Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Educação (Anped).

De 2008 a 2012 o orçamento do MEC para o Programa Nacional de Assistência Estudantil (Pnaes), que garante bolsas mensais e auxílios financeiros para alimentação, moradia e compra de material didático, cresceu 300% em valores nominais, para R$ 500 milhões. Mas dirigentes federais falam que os recursos são insuficientes. “O Pnaes precisaria subir para R$ 1,5 bilhão para dar conta das atuais necessidades atuais. A nova lei, que fere a autonomia universitária, poderia vir acompanhada de um item para garantir a contrapartida orçamentária à universidade que receber estudantes mais pobres”, critica Gustavo Balduíno, da direção da Associação Nacional de Dirigentes de Instituições de Ensino Federais (Andifes).

Sobre o aspecto racial, o levantamento do Fonaprace mostra que em 2010 estudantes brancos eram maioria nas universidades federais: 54%. Na pesquisa anterior, em 2004, o percentual de brancos era de 59%. Os pretos aumentaram de 5,9% em 2004 para 8,7% em 2010, percentual que subiu em todas as regiões do País: com destaque para o Norte, que praticamente dobrou o seu percentual (13,4%, ante 6,8% em 2004), e Nordeste, cujas marcas passaram de 8,6% para 12,5%.

Perto de 45% dos estudantes das universidades federais pertencem às classes C, D e E. Os estudantes da classe A somam 15% do total de matrículas de 2010, com maior concentração na região Centro-Oeste (22%). Os universitários enquadrados na classe B representam 41% do total.

Doctors Often Don’t Disclose All Possible Risks to Patients Before Treatment (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 7, 2012) — Most informed consent disputes involve disagreements about who said what and when, not stand-offs over whether a particular risk ought to have been disclosed. But doctors may “routinely underestimate the importance of a small set of risks that vex patients” according to international experts writing in this week’s PLoS Medicine.

Increasingly, doctors are expected to advise and empower patients to make rational choices by sharing information that may affect treatment decisions, including risks of adverse outcomes. However, authors from Australia and the US led by David Studdert from the University of Melbourne argue that doctors, especially surgeons, are often unsure which clinical risks they should disclose and discuss with patients before treatment.

To understand more about the clinical circumstances in which disputes arise between doctors and patients in this area, the authors analyzed 481 malpractice claims and patient complaints from Australia involving allegations of deficiencies in the process of obtaining informed consent.

The authors found that 45 (9%) of the cases studied were disputed duty cases — that is, they involved head-to-head disagreements over whether a particular risk ought to have been disclosed before treatment. Two-thirds of these disputed duty cases involved surgical procedures, and the majority (38/45) of them related to five specific outcomes that had quality of life implications for patients, including chronic pain and the need for re-operation.

The authors found that the most common justifications doctors gave for not telling patients about particular risks before treatment were that they considered such risks too rare to warrant discussion or the specific risk was covered by a more general risk that was discussed.

However, nine in ten of the disputes studied centered on factual disagreements — arguments over who said what, and when. The authors say: “Documenting consent discussions in the lead-up to surgical procedures is particularly important, as most informed consent claims and complaints involved factual disagreements over the disclosure of operative risks.”

The authors say: “Our findings suggest that doctors may systematically underestimate the premium patients place on understanding certain risks in advance of treatment.”

They conclude: “Improved understanding of these situations helps to spotlight gaps between what patients want to hear and what doctors perceive patients want — or should want — to hear. It may also be useful information for doctors eager to avoid medico-legal disputes.”

Rooting out Rumors, Epidemics, and Crime — With Math (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 10, 2012) — A team of EPFL scientists has developed an algorithm that can identify the source of an epidemic or information circulating within a network, a method that could also be used to help with criminal investigations.

Investigators are well aware of how difficult it is to trace an unlawful act to its source. The job was arguably easier with old, Mafia-style criminal organizations, as their hierarchical structures more or less resembled predictable family trees.

In the Internet age, however, the networks used by organized criminals have changed. Innumerable nodes and connections escalate the complexity of these networks, making it ever more difficult to root out the guilty party. EPFL researcher Pedro Pinto of the Audiovisual Communications Laboratory and his colleagues have developed an algorithm that could become a valuable ally for investigators, criminal or otherwise, as long as a network is involved. The team’s research was published August 10, 2012, in the journal Physical Review Letters.

Finding the source of a Facebook rumor

“Using our method, we can find the source of all kinds of things circulating in a network just by ‘listening’ to a limited number of members of that network,” explains Pinto. Suppose you come across a rumor about yourself that has spread on Facebook and been sent to 500 people — your friends, or even friends of your friends. How do you find the person who started the rumor? “By looking at the messages received by just 15-20 of your friends, and taking into account the time factor, our algorithm can trace the path of that information back and find the source,” Pinto adds. This method can also be used to identify the origin of a spam message or a computer virus using only a limited number of sensors within the network.

Trace the propagation of an epidemic

Out in the real world, the algorithm can be employed to find the primary source of an infectious disease, such as cholera. “We tested our method with data on an epidemic in South Africa provided by EPFL professor Andrea Rinaldo’s Ecohydrology Laboratory,” says Pinto. “By modeling water networks, river networks, and human transport networks, we were able to find the spot where the first cases of infection appeared by monitoring only a small fraction of the villages.”

The method would also be useful in responding to terrorist attacks, such as the 1995 sarin gas attack in the Tokyo subway, in which poisonous gas released in the city’s subterranean tunnels killed 13 people and injured nearly 1,000 more. “Using this algorithm, it wouldn’t be necessary to equip every station with detectors. A sample would be sufficient to rapidly identify the origin of the attack, and action could be taken before it spreads too far,” says Pinto.

Identifying the brains behind a terrorist attack

Computer simulations of the telephone conversations that could have occurred during the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, were used to test Pinto’s system. “By reconstructing the message exchange inside the 9/11 terrorist network extracted from publicly released news, our system spit out the names of three potential suspects — one of whom was found to be the mastermind of the attacks, according to the official enquiry.”

The validity of this method thus has been proven a posteriori. But according to Pinto, it could also be used preventatively — for example, to understand an outbreak before it gets out of control. “By carefully selecting points in the network to test, we could more rapidly detect the spread of an epidemic,” he points out. It could also be a valuable tool for advertisers who use viral marketing strategies by leveraging the Internet and social networks to reach customers. For example, this algorithm would allow them to identify the specific Internet blogs that are the most influential for their target audience and to understand how in these articles spread throughout the online community.

Populations Survive Despite Many Deleterious Mutations: Evolutionary Model of Muller’s Ratchet Explored (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 10, 2012) — From protozoans to mammals, evolution has created more and more complex structures and better-adapted organisms. This is all the more astonishing as most genetic mutations are deleterious. Especially in small asexual populations that do not recombine their genes, unfavourable mutations can accumulate. This process is known as Muller’s ratchet in evolutionary biology. The ratchet, proposed by the American geneticist Hermann Joseph Muller, predicts that the genome deteriorates irreversibly, leaving populations on a one-way street to extinction.

Equilibrium of mutation and selection processes: A population can be divided into groups of individuals that carry different numbers of deleterious mutations. Groups with few mutations are amplified by selection but loose members to other groups by mutation. Groups with many mutations don’t reproduce as much, but gain members by mutation. (Credit: © Richard Neher/MPI for Developmental Biology)

In collaboration with colleagues from the US, Richard Neher from the Max Planck Institute for Developmental Biology has shown mathematically how Muller’s ratchet operates and he has investigated why populations are not inevitably doomed to extinction despite the continuous influx of deleterious mutations.

The great majority of mutations are deleterious. “Due to selection individuals with more favourable genes reproduce more successfully and deleterious mutations disappear again,” explains the population geneticist Richard Neher, leader of an independent Max Planck research group at the Max Planck Institute for Developmental Biology in Tübingen, Germany. However, in small populations such as an asexually reproducing virus early during infection, the situation is not so clear-cut. “It can then happen by chance, by stochastic processes alone, that deleterious mutations in the viruses accumulate and the mutation-free group of individuals goes extinct,” says Richard Neher. This is known as a click of Muller’s ratchet, which is irreversible — at least in Muller’s model.

Muller published his model on the evolutionary significance of deleterious mutations in 1964. Yet to date a quantitative understanding of the ratchet’s processes was lacking. Richard Neher and Boris Shraiman from the University of California in Santa Barbara have now published a new theoretical study on Muller’s ratchet. They chose a comparably simple model with only deleterious mutations all having the same effect on fitness. The scientists assumed selection against those mutations and analysed how fluctuations in the group of the fittest individuals affected the less fit ones and the whole population. Richard Neher and Boris Shraiman discovered that the key to the understanding of Muller’s ratchet lies in a slow response: If the number of the fittest individuals is reduced, the mean fitness decreases only after a delay. “This delayed feedback accelerates Muller’s ratchet,” Richard Neher comments on the results. It clicks more and more frequently.

“Our results are valid for a broad range of conditions and parameter values — for a population of viruses as well as a population of tigers.” However, he does not expect to find the model’s conditions one-to-one in nature. “Models are made to understand the essential aspects, to identify the critical processes,” he explains.

In a second study Richard Neher, Boris Shraiman and several other US-scientists from the University of California in Santa Barbara and Harvard University in Cambridge investigated how a small asexual population could escape Muller’s ratchet. “Such a population can only stay in a steady state for a long time when beneficial mutations continually compensate for the negative ones that accumulate via Muller’s ratchet,” says Richard Neher. For their model the scientists assumed a steady environment and suggest that there can be a mutation-selection balance in every population. They have calculated the rate of favourable mutations required to maintain the balance. The result was surprising: Even under unfavourable conditions, a comparably small proportion in the range of several percent of positive mutations is sufficient to sustain a population.

These findings could explain the long-term maintenance of mitochondria, the so-called power plants of the cell that have their own genome and divide asexually. By and large, evolution is driven by random events or as Richard Neher says: “Evolutionary dynamics are very stochastic.”

Why Do Organisms Build Tissues They Seemingly Never Use? (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 10, 2012) — Why, after millions of years of evolution, do organisms build structures that seemingly serve no purpose?

A study conducted at Michigan State University and published in the current issue of The American Naturalist investigates the evolutionary reasons why organisms go through developmental stages that appear unnecessary.

“Many animals build tissues and structures they don’t appear to use, and then they disappear,” said Jeff Clune, lead author and former doctoral student at MSU’s BEACON Center of Evolution in Action. “It’s comparable to building a roller coaster, razing it and building a skyscraper on the same ground. Why not just skip ahead to building the skyscraper?”

Why humans and other organisms retain seemingly unnecessary stages in their development has been debated between biologists since 1866. This study explains that organisms jump through these extra hoops to avoid disrupting a developmental process that works. Clune’s team called this concept the “developmental disruption force.” But Clune says it also could be described as “if the shoe fits, don’t change a thing.”

“In a developing embryo, each new structure is built in a delicate environment that consists of everything that has already developed,” said Clune, who is now a postdoctoral fellow at Cornell University. “Mutations that alter that environment, such as by eliminating a structure, can thus disrupt later stages of development. Even if a structure is not actually used, it may set the stage for other functional tissues to grow properly.”

Going back to the roller coaster metaphor, even though the roller coaster gets torn down, the organism needs the parts from that teardown to build the skyscraper, he added.

“An engineer would simply skip the roller coaster step, but evolution is more of a tinkerer and less of an engineer,” Clune said. “It uses whatever parts that are lying around, even if the process that generates those parts is inefficient.”

An interesting consequence is that newly evolved traits tend to get added at the end of development, because there is less risk of disrupting anything important. That, in turn, means that there is a similarity between the order things evolve and the order they develop.

A new technology called computational evolution allowed the team to conduct experiments that would be impossible to reproduce in nature.

Rather than observe embryos grow, the team of computer scientists and biologists used BEACON’s Avida software to perform experiments with evolution inside a computer. The Avidians — self-replicating computer programs — mutate, compete for resources and evolve, mimicking natural selection in real-life organisms. Using this software, Clune’s team observed as Avidians evolved to perform logic tasks. They recorded the order that those tasks evolved in a variety of lineages, and then looked at the order those tasks developed in the final, evolved organism.

They were able to help settle an age-old debate that developmental order does resemble evolutionary order, at least in this computationally evolving system. Because in a computer thousands of generations can happen overnight, the team was able to repeat this experiment many times to document that this similarity repeatedly occurs.

Additional MSU researchers contributing to the study included BEACON colleagues Richard Lenski, Robert Pennock and Charles Ofria. The research was funded by the National Science Foundation.

USDA: Ongoing Drought Causes Significant Crop Yield Declines (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 10, 2012) — Corn production will drop 13 percent to a six-year low, the U.S. Agriculture Department said today (Aug. 10), confirming what many farmers already knew — they are having a very bad year, Ohio State University Extension economist Matt Roberts said.

Drought’s impact on corn. (Credit: Image courtesy of OSU Extension)

In its monthly crops report, USDA today cut its projected U.S. corn production to 10.8 billion bushels, down 17 percent from its forecast last month of nearly 13 billion bushels and 13 percent lower than last year. Soybean production is forecast to be down as well, to 2.69 billion bushels, which is 12 percent lower than last year, as well as lower than the 3.05 billion bushels the USDA forecast last month.

The projections mean this year’s corn production will be the lowest production since 2006, with soybeans at its lowest production rate since 2003, Roberts said. The USDA said it expects corn growers to average 123.4 bushels per acre, down 24 bushels from last year, while soybean growers are expected to average 36.1 bushels per acre, down 5.4 bushels from last year.

In Ohio, those numbers translate into a projected 126 bushels per acre yield, which is down 32 bushels per acre from last year for corn, he said. Soybeans are projected at 42 bushels per acre, down from last year’s 47.5 bushels per acre yield.

The impact on growers is going to be tough, Roberts said.

“I don’t think this is a surprise to anyone, especially growers,” he said. “For most farmers, this is the year that they will lose much of the profits they’ve made over five good years.

“I don’t expect to see a lot of bankruptcies, but certainly there will be a lot of belt-tightening among farmers this year. With crop insurance so widespread, it will help ensure that we don’t see a lot of bankruptcies and help farmers weather this storm.”

This as Ohioans have suffered through multiple days of record-setting temperatures of over 100 degrees this summer, with scant rainfall that has resulted in parched crop fields. In fact, with an average temperature of 77.6 degrees, July was the hottest month ever recorded nationwide, breaking a record set during the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, according to the National Climatic Data Center.

Most of Ohio except for some counties near the Kentucky, West Virginia and Pennsylvania borders is experiencing moderate drought, with some counties near the Indiana and Michigan borders experiencing severe and extreme drought as of Aug. 7, according to the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor. Nationwide, 80 percent of the U.S. is experiencing drought conditions, up from 40 percent in May, according to the monitor.

Currently, topsoil moisture in Ohio was rated 45 percent very short, 41 percent short and 14 percent adequate, with no surplus, according to the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture Weekly Crop Report.

The lack of rainfall has decimated many corn crops, which were damaged as a result of not enough rain during its crucial pollination period. So even though growers planted a record acreage of corn this year in anticipation of a strong year with record yields, the lack of enough rainfall has caused yield forecasts to continue to decline, Roberts said.

And while soybeans weren’t as negatively impacted by the lack of rain earlier in the growing season, ongoing drought conditions are taking a toll on crops, which are seeing yield estimates decline as well, he said, noting that further yield declines are likely as the growing season continues.

The corn and soybean forecasts are largely in line with market expectations, Roberts said.

Corn prices through yesterday increased 63 percent since mid-June, reaching an all-time high today (Aug. 10) of $8.49 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

“Most analysts in February expected a corn yield of 163, meaning there has now been a 40 bushel per acre yield cut from the beginning of the year, with many analysts expecting yields to go below 120 per bushels when it is all said and done,” he said. “That means there’s just a lot less corn around than what we expected.

“That leaves 2.3 billion fewer bushels of corn to be consumed than in 2011, which means that consumption has to be rationed out. And even though ethanol will be down about 10 percent and exports will be down by 25 percent from two years ago, we will still end up with extremely tight inventories.”

For livestock farmers, the situation is even worse, Roberts said.

“Livestock producers will feel more pain from higher feed prices and negative profit margins,” he said. “We will see a lot more stress on the entire livestock end, from poultry all the way up to cows.

“Cow/calf producers are in a very difficult situation because of poor pasture conditions and high hay costs as a result of this historic drought. Overall, it’s going to be a very bad year for the farm economy. While there will be pockets of growers that don’t feel it as bad, livestock farmers will feel it just all around because of the overall feed costs.”

NOAA Raises Hurricane Season Prediction Despite Expected El Niño (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 10, 2012) — This year’s Atlantic hurricane season got off to a busy start, with 6 named storms to date, and may have a busy second half, according to the updated hurricane season outlook issued Aug. 9, 2012 by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The updated outlook still indicates a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season, but increases the chance of an above-normal season to 35 percent and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent from the initial outlook issued in May.

Satellite image of Hurricane Ernesto taken on Aug. 7, 2012 in the Gulf of Mexico. (Credit: NOAA)

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the season — June 1 to November 30 — NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook projects a total (which includes the activity-to-date of tropical storms Alberto, Beryl, Debbie, Florence and hurricanes Chris and Ernesto) of:

  • 12 to 17 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
  • 5 to 8 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
  • 2 to 3 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

The numbers are higher from the initial outlook in May, which called for 9-15 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes and 1-3 major hurricanes. Based on a 30-year average, a normal Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

“We are increasing the likelihood of an above-normal season because storm-conducive wind patterns and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures are now in place in the Atlantic,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “These conditions are linked to the ongoing high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995. Also, strong early-season activity is generally indicative of a more active season.”

However, NOAA seasonal climate forecasters also announced today that El Niño will likely develop in August or September.

“El Niño is a competing factor, because it strengthens the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, which suppresses storm development. However, we don’t expect El Niño’s influence until later in the season,” Bell said.

“We have a long way to go until the end of the season, and we shouldn’t let our guard down,” said Laura Furgione, acting director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Hurricanes often bring dangerous inland flooding as we saw a year ago in the Northeast with Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee. Even people who live hundreds of miles from the coast need to remain vigilant through the remainder of the season.”

“It is never too early to prepare for a hurricane,” said Tim Manning, FEMA’s deputy administrator for protection and national preparedness. “We are in the middle of hurricane season and now is the time to get ready. There are easy steps you can take to get yourself and your family prepared. Visit www.ready.gov to learn more.”

How Computation Can Predict Group Conflict: Fighting Among Captive Pigtailed Macaques Provides Clues (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 13, 2012) — When conflict breaks out in social groups, individuals make strategic decisions about how to behave based on their understanding of alliances and feuds in the group.

Researchers studied fighting among captive pigtailed macaques for clues about behavior and group conflict. (Credit: iStockphoto/Natthaphong Phanthumchinda)

But it’s been challenging to quantify the underlying trends that dictate how individuals make predictions, given they may only have seen a small number of fights or have limited memory.

In a new study, scientists at the Wisconsin Institute for Discovery (WID) at UW-Madison develop a computational approach to determine whether individuals behave predictably. With data from previous fights, the team looked at how much memory individuals in the group would need to make predictions themselves. The analysis proposes a novel estimate of “cognitive burden,” or the minimal amount of information an organism needs to remember to make a prediction.

The research draws from a concept called “sparse coding,” or the brain’s tendency to use fewer visual details and a small number of neurons to stow an image or scene. Previous studies support the idea that neurons in the brain react to a few large details such as the lines, edges and orientations within images rather than many smaller details.

“So what you get is a model where you have to remember fewer things but you still get very high predictive power — that’s what we’re interested in,” says Bryan Daniels, a WID researcher who led the study. “What is the trade-off? What’s the minimum amount of ‘stuff’ an individual has to remember to make good inferences about future events?”

To find out, Daniels — along with WID co-authors Jessica Flack and David Krakauer — drew comparisons from how brains and computers encode information. The results contribute to ongoing discussions about conflict in biological systems and how cognitive organisms understand their environments.

The study, published in the Aug. 13 edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, examined observed bouts of natural fighting in a group of 84 captive pigtailed macaques at the Yerkes National Primate Research Center. By recording individuals’ involvement — or lack thereof — in fights, the group created models that mapped the likelihood any number of individuals would engage in conflict in hypothetical situations.

To confirm the predictive power of the models, the group plugged in other data from the monkey group that was not used to create the models. Then, researchers compared these simulations with what actually happened in the group. One model looked at conflict as combinations of pairs, while another represented fights as sparse combinations of clusters, which proved to be a better tool for predicting fights. From there, by removing information until predictions became worse, Daniels and colleagues calculated the amount of information each individual needed to remember to make the most informed decision whether to fight or flee.

“We know the monkeys are making predictions, but we don’t know how good they are,” says Daniels. “But given this data, we found that the most memory it would take to figure out the regularities is about 1,000 bits of information.”

Sparse coding appears to be a strong candidate for explaining the mechanism at play in the monkey group, but the team points out that it is only one possible way to encode conflict.

Because the statistical modeling and computation frameworks can be applied to different natural datasets, the research has the potential to influence other fields of study, including behavioral science, cognition, computation, game theory and machine learning. Such models might also be useful in studying collective behaviors in other complex systems, ranging from neurons to bird flocks.

Future research will seek to find out how individuals’ knowledge of alliances and feuds fine tunes their own decisions and changes the groups’ collective pattern of conflict.

The research was supported by the National Science Foundation, the John Templeton Foundation through the Santa Fe Institute, and UW-Madison.

Why Are People Overconfident So Often? It’s All About Social Status (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 13, 2012) — Researchers have long known that people are very frequently overconfident — that they tend to believe they are more physically talented, socially adept, and skilled at their job than they actually are. For example, 94% of college professors think they do above average work (which is nearly impossible, statistically speaking). But this overconfidence can also have detrimental effects on their performance and decision-making. So why, in light of these negative consequences, is overconfidence still so pervasive?

The lure of social status promotes overconfidence, explains Haas School Associate Professor Cameron Anderson. He co-authored a new study, “A Status-Enhancement Account of Overconfidence,” with Sebastien Brion, assistant professor of managing people in organizations, IESE Business School, University of Navarra, Haas School colleagues Don Moore, associate professor of management, and Jessica A. Kennedy, now a post-doctoral fellow at the Wharton School of Business. The study will be published in theJournal of Personality and Social Psychology (forthcoming).

“Our studies found that overconfidence helped people attain social status. People who believed they were better than others, even when they weren’t, were given a higher place in the social ladder. And the motive to attain higher social status thus spurred overconfidence,” says Anderson, the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication II at the Haas School.

Social status is the respect, prominence, and influence individuals enjoy in the eyes of others. Within work groups, for example, higher status individuals tend to be more admired, listened to, and have more sway over the group’s discussions and decisions. These “alphas” of the group have more clout and prestige than other members. Anderson says these research findings are important because they help shed light on a longstanding puzzle: why overconfidence is so common, in spite of its risks. His findings suggest that falsely believing one is better than others has profound social benefits for the individual.

Moreover, these findings suggest one reason why in organizational settings, incompetent people are so often promoted over their more competent peers. “In organizations, people are very easily swayed by others’ confidence even when that confidence is unjustified,” says Anderson. “Displays of confidence are given an inordinate amount of weight.”

The studies suggest that organizations would benefit from taking individuals’ confidence with a grain of salt. Yes, confidence can be a sign of a person’s actual abilities, but it is often not a very good sign. Many individuals are confident in their abilities even though they lack true skills or competence.

The authors conducted six experiments to measure why people become overconfident and how overconfidence equates to a rise in social stature. For example:

In Study 2, the researchers examined 242 MBA students in their project teams and asked them to look over a list of historical names, historical events, and books and poems, and then to identify which ones they knew or recognized. Terms included Maximilien Robespierre, Lusitania, Wounded Knee, Pygmalion, and Doctor Faustus. Unbeknownst to the participants, some of the names were made up. These so-called “foils” included Bonnie Prince Lorenzo, Queen Shaddock, Galileo Lovano, Murphy’s Last Ride, and Windemere Wild. The researchers deemed those who picked the most foils the most overly confident because they believed they were more knowledgeable than they actually were. In a survey at the end of the semester, those same overly confident individuals (who said they had recognized the most foils) achieved the highest social status within their groups.

It is important to note that group members did not think of their high status peers as overconfident, but simply that they were terrific. “This overconfidence did not come across as narcissistic,” explains Anderson. “The most overconfident people were considered the most beloved.”

Study 4 sought to discover the types of behaviors that make overconfident people appear to be so wonderful (even when they were not). Behaviors such as body language, vocal tone, rates of participation were captured on video as groups worked together in a laboratory setting. These videos revealed that overconfident individuals spoke more often, spoke with a confident vocal tone, provided more information and answers, and acted calmly and relaxed as they worked with their peers. In fact, overconfident individuals were more convincing in their displays of ability than individuals who were actually highly competent.

“These big participators were not obnoxious, they didn’t say, ‘I’m really good at this.’ Instead, their behavior was much more subtle. They simply participated more and exhibited more comfort with the task — even though they were no more competent than anyone else,” says Anderson.

Two final studies found that it is the “desire” for status that encourages people to be more overconfident. For example, in Study 6, participants read one of two stories and were asked to imagine themselves as the protagonist in the story. The first story was a simple, bland narrative of losing then finding one’s keys. The second story asked the reader to imagine him/herself getting a new job with a prestigious company. The job had many opportunities to obtain higher status, including a promotion, a bonus, and a fast track to the top. Those participants who read the new job scenario rated their desire for status much higher than those who read the story of the lost keys.

After they were finished reading, participants were asked to rate themselves on a number of competencies such as critical thinking skills, intelligence, and the ability to work in teams. Those who had read the new job story (which stimulated their desire for status) rated their skills and talent much higher than did the first group. Their desire for status amplified their overconfidence.

De-emphasizing the natural tendency toward overconfidence may prove difficult but Prof. Anderson hopes this research will give people the incentive to look for more objective indices of ability and merit in others, instead of overvaluing unsubstantiated confidence.