Arquivo da tag: Mudanças climáticas

Majority of red-state Americans believe climate change is real, study shows (The Guardian)

Study suggests far-reaching acceptance of climate change in traditionally Republican states such as Texas and Oklahoma

, US environment correspondent

theguardian.com, Wednesday 13 November 2013 19.40 GMT

Texas droughtA cracked lake bed in Texas. Findings in this study are likely based on personal experiences of hot weather. Photograph: Tony Gutierrez/AP

A vast majority of red-state Americans believe climate change is real and at least two-thirds of those want the government to cut greenhouse gas emissions, new research revealed on Wednesday.

The research, by Stanford University social psychologist Jon Krosnick, confounds the conventional wisdom of climate denial as a central pillar of Republican politics, and practically an article of faith for Tea Party conservatives.

Instead, the findings suggest far-reaching acceptance that climate change is indeed occurring and is caused by human activities, even in such reliably red states as Texas and Oklahoma.

“To me, the most striking finding that is new today was that we could not find a single state in the country where climate scepticism was in the majority,” Krosnick said in an interview.

States that voted for Barack Obama, as expected, also believe climate change is occurring and support curbs on carbon pollution. Some 88% of Massachusetts residents believe climate change is real.

But Texas and Oklahoma are among the reddest of red states and are represented in Congress by Republicans who regularly dismiss the existence of climate change or its attendant risks.

Congressman Joe Barton of Texas and Senator Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma stand out for their regular denials of climate change as a “hoax”, even among Republican ranks.

However, the research found 87% of Oklahomans and 84% of Texans accepted that climate change was occurring.

Seventy-six percent of Americans in both states also believed the government should step in to limit greenhouse gas emissions produced by industry.

In addition, the research indicated substantial support for Obama’s decision to use the Environmental Protection Agency to cut emissions from power plants. The polling found at least 62% of Americans in favour of action cutting greenhouse gas emissions from plants.

Once again, Texas was also solidly lined up with action, with 79% of voters supporting regulation of power plants.

The acceptance of climate change was not a result of outreach efforts by scientists, however, or by the experience of extreme events, such as hurricane Sandy, Krosnick said.

His research found no connection between Sandy and belief in climate change or support for climate action.

Instead, he said the findings suggest personal experiences of hot weather – especially in warm states in the south-west – persuaded Texans and others that the climate was indeed changing within their own lifetimes.

“Their experience with weather leaves people in most places on the green side in most of the questions we ask,” he said.

There was some small slippage in acceptance of climate change in north-western states such as Idaho and Utah and in the industrial heartland states of Ohio. But even then at a minimum, 75% believed climate change was occurring.

The findings, represented in a series of maps, were presented at a meeting of the bicameral task force on climate change which has been pushing Congress to try to move ahead on Obama’s green commitments. There was insufficient data to provide findings from a small number of states

Henry Waxman, the Democrat who co-chairs the taskforce, said in a statement the findings showed Americans were ready to take action to cut emissions that cause climate change.

“This new report is crystal clear,” said Waxman. “It shows that the vast majority of Americans – whether from red states or blue – understand that climate change is a growing danger. Americans recognise that we have a moral obligation to protect the environment and an economic opportunity to develop the clean energy technologies of the future. Americans are way ahead of Congress in listening to the scientists.”

Some 58% of Republicans in the current Congress deny the existence of climate change or oppose action to cut greenhouse gas emissions, according to an analysis by the Center for American Progress.

Just 90 companies caused two-thirds of man-made global warming emissions (The Guardian)

Chevron, Exxon and BP among companies most responsible for climate change since dawn of industrial age, figures show

, US environment correspondent

theguardian.com, Wednesday 20 November 2013 16.07 GMT

 Sandbag’s report into the emergence of emissions trading in China : carbon pollutionOil, coal and gas companies are contributing to most carbon emissions, causing climate change and some are also funding denial campaigns. Photograph: David Gray/Reuters
The climate crisis of the 21st century has been caused largely by just 90 companies, which between them produced nearly two-thirds of the greenhouse gas emissions generated since the dawning of the industrial age, new research suggests.The companies range from investor-owned firms – household names such as Chevron, Exxon and BP – to state-owned and government-run firms.The analysis, which was welcomed by the former vice-president Al Goreas a “crucial step forward” found that the vast majority of the firms were in the business of producing oil, gas or coal, found the analysis, which has been accepted for publication in the journal Climatic Change.”There are thousands of oil, gas and coal producers in the world,” climate researcher and author Richard Heede at the Climate Accountability Institute in Colorado said. “But the decision makers, the CEOs, or the ministers of coal and oil if you narrow it down to just one person, they could all fit on a Greyhound bus or two.”Half of the estimated emissions were produced just in the past 25 years – well past the date when governments and corporations became aware that rising greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of coal and oil were causing dangerous climate change.Many of the same companies are also sitting on substantial reserves of fossil fuel which – if they are burned – puts the world at even greater risk of dangerous climate change.Climate change experts said the data set was the most ambitious effort so far to hold individual carbon producers, rather than governments, to account.The United Nations climate change panel, the IPCC, warned in September that at current rates the world stood within 30 years of exhausting its “carbon budget” – the amount of carbon dioxide it could emit without going into the danger zone above 2C warming. The former US vice-president and environmental champion, Al Gore, said the new carbon accounting could re-set the debate about allocating blame for the climate crisis.Leaders meeting in Warsaw for the UN climate talks this week clashed repeatedly over which countries bore the burden for solving the climate crisis – historic emitters such as America or Europe or the rising economies of India and China.Gore in his comments said the analysis underlined that it should not fall to governments alone to act on climate change.”This study is a crucial step forward in our understanding of the evolution of the climate crisis. The public and private sectors alike must do what is necessary to stop global warming,” Gore told the Guardian. “Those who are historically responsible for polluting our atmosphere have a clear obligation to be part of the solution.”Between them, the 90 companies on the list of top emitters produced 63% of the cumulative global emissions of industrial carbon dioxide and methane between 1751 to 2010, amounting to about 914 gigatonne CO2 emissions, according to the research. All but seven of the 90 wereenergy companies producing oil, gas and coal. The remaining seven were cement manufacturers.The list of 90 companies included 50 investor-owned firms – mainly oil companies with widely recognised names such as Chevron, Exxon, BP , and Royal Dutch Shell and coal producers such as British Coal Corp, Peabody Energy and BHP Billiton.Some 31 of the companies that made the list were state-owned companies such as Saudi Arabia’s Saudi Aramco, Russia’s Gazprom and Norway’s Statoil.Nine were government run industries, producing mainly coal in countries such as China, the former Soviet Union, North Korea and Poland, the host of this week’s talks.Experts familiar with Heede’s research and the politics of climate change said they hoped the analysis could help break the deadlock in international climate talks.”It seemed like maybe this could break the logjam,” said Naomi Oreskes, professor of the history of science at Harvard. “There are all kinds of countries that have produced a tremendous amount of historical emissions that we do not normally talk about. We do not normally talk about Mexico or Poland or Venezuela. So then it’s not just rich v poor, it is also producers v consumers, and resource rich v resource poor.”Michael Mann, the climate scientist, said he hoped the list would bring greater scrutiny to oil and coal companies’ deployment of their remaining reserves. “What I think could be a game changer here is the potential for clearly fingerprinting the sources of those future emissions,” he said. “It increases the accountability for fossil fuel burning. You can’t burn fossil fuels without the rest of the world knowing about it.”Others were less optimistic that a more comprehensive accounting of the sources of greenhouse gas emissions would make it easier to achieve the emissions reductions needed to avoid catastrophic climate change.John Ashton, who served as UK’s chief climate change negotiator for six years, suggested that the findings reaffirmed the central role of fossil fuel producing entities in the economy.”The challenge we face is to move in the space of not much more than a generation from a carbon-intensive energy system to a carbonneutral energy system. If we don’t do that we stand no chance of keeping climate change within the 2C threshold,” Ashton said.”By highlighting the way in which a relatively small number of large companies are at the heart of the current carbon-intensive growth model, this report highlights that fundamental challenge.”Meanwhile, Oreskes, who has written extensively about corporate-funded climate denial, noted that several of the top companies on the list had funded the climate denial movement.”For me one of the most interesting things to think about was the overlap of large scale producers and the funding of disinformation campaigns, and how that has delayed action,” she said.The data represents eight years of exhaustive research into carbon emissions over time, as well as the ownership history of the major emitters.The companies’ operations spanned the globe, with company headquarters in 43 different countries. “These entities extract resources from every oil, natural gas and coal province in the world, and process the fuels into marketable products that are sold to consumers on every nation on Earth,” Heede writes in the paper.The largest of the investor-owned companies were responsible for an outsized share of emissions. Nearly 30% of emissions were produced just by the top 20 companies, the research found.By Heede’s calculation, government-run oil and coal companies in the former Soviet Union produced more greenhouse gas emissions than any other entity – just under 8.9% of the total produced over time. China came a close second with its government-run entities accounting for 8.6% of total global emissions.ChevronTexaco was the leading emitter among investor-owned companies, causing 3.5% of greenhouse gas emissions to date, with Exxon not far behind at 3.2%. In third place, BP caused 2.5% of global emissions to date.The historic emissions record was constructed using public records and data from the US department of energy’s Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Centre, and took account of emissions all along the supply chain.The centre put global industrial emissions since 1751 at 1,450 gigatonnes.

Um balanço da primeira semana da COP19 (Vitae Civilis)

Ambiente
18/11/2013 – 09h10

por Délcio Rodrigues e Silvia Dias*

cop19 ecod 300x183 Um balanço da primeira semana da COP19

Ao fim da primeira semana da CoP19, a sensação de dejá vú é inevitável. Mais uma vez, o negociador filipino foi o responsável pelo discurso mais emocionante. Mais uma vez, o Germanwatch divulga que os países pobres são os mais vulneráveis aos eventos climáticos extremos. Mais uma vez, aliás, temos um evento climático vitimando milhares de pessoas enquanto acontece a conferência. Mais uma vez, temos a divulgação de que estamos vivendo os anos mais quentes da história recente do planeta, de que a quantidade de gases causadores do efeito estufa na atmosfera já está em níveis alarmantes, de que o certo seria deixar as reservas de combustíveis fósseis intocadas…

Mesmo o novo relatório do IPCC chega com um certo gosto de notícia velha. Pois apesar da maior gama de detalhes e da maior certeza científica, basicamente o AR5 confirma que estamos seguindo em uma trajetória que esgotará já em 2030 todo o carbono que poderemos queimar neste século sem alterar perigosamente o clima do planeta. Da mesma forma, a Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) confirma o exposto por uma forte campanha feita na CoP18 contra os subsídios aos combustíveis fósseis. Segundo a IEA, os governos gastaram US$ 523 bilhões em subsídios aos combustíveis fósseis em 2011 – uma completa inversão de prioridades, do ponto de vista da mudança climática: para cada US$ 1 em apoio às energias renováveis​​, outros US$ 6 estão promovendo combustíveis intensivos em carbono. Parte dos subsídios aos combustíveis fósseis estão acontecendo em países emergentes e em desenvolvimento, haja vista os subsídios à gasolina impostos pelo governo brasileiro à Petrobrás. Mas talvez sejam mais importantes nos países ricos. Pesquisa do Overseas Development Institute, do Reino Unido, mostrou que os subsídios ao consumo de combustíveis fósseis em 11 países da OCDE alcançam o total de US$ 72 bilhões dólares, ou cerca de US$ 112 por habitante adulto destes países.

Essa perversidade econômica estrangula, no nascimento, as inovações tecnológicas que podem contribuir para evitarmos a colisão iminente entre a economia global (e o seu sistema energético) e os limites ecológicos do nosso planeta. Os recentes desenvolvimentos em energia eólica, solar, bio-combustíveis , geotermia, marés, células de combustível e eficiência energética estão aumentando as possibilidades de construção de um cenário energético de baixo carbono. Além de poderem afastar a crise climática, estas tecnologias poderiam abrir novas oportunidades de investimento, fornecer energia a preços acessíveis e sustentar o crescimento. Mas este potencial somente será realizado se os governos perseguirem ativamente políticas industriais sustentáveis. É necessário alinhar o objetivo de mitigação da crise climática com desincentivos para as fontes de energia intensivas em carbono por meio de impostos e apoio a alternativas sustentáveis.

O fim dos subsídios aos combustíveis fósseis precisa ser acompanhado por políticas que favoreçam a transferência de tecnologias limpas. Não podemos deixar de lado o exemplo da China, da Índia e também do Brasil, para onde multinacionais historicamente enviam plataformas de produção sujas e energo-intensivas. Infelizmente, as negociações sobre tecnologia estão entre as mais emperradas – tanto no formato anterior, estabelecido pelo Caminho de Bali, como agora, na chamada Plataforma Durban. Simultaneamente, tomamos conhecimento, pelo WikiLeaks, da Parceria Trans-Pacífica (TPP) referente a patentes e proteção intelectual – acordo que vem sendo negociado secretamente entre líderes de 12 países que concentram 40% do PIB e um terço do comércio global e que visa impor medidas mais agressivas para coibir a quebra de propriedade intelectual.

A discrepância entre o que a ciência recomenda e o que os governos estão promovendo permanece, independente do formato das negociações climáticas. Saímos dos dois trilhos estabelecidos em Bali para a Plataforma Durban, mas os compromissos financeiros ou metas mais agressivas de mitigação não vieram. Na primeira semana da CoP19, os discursos dos negociadores reviveram posicionamentos arcaicos e obstrutivos ao processo. Sim, é certo que já sabíamos que esta não seria uma conferência de grandes resultados. Mas o fato é que os bad guys resolveram ser realmente bad sob a condução complacente de uma presidência que não se constrange em explicitar sua conduta em prol do carvão e demais combustíveis fósseis. Tanto que a Rússia abriu mão de atravancar o processo, guardando suas queixas sobre o processo da UNFCCC para outra ocasião.

Esta outra ocasião pode ser a CoP20, no Peru, para onde as esperanças de negociações mais produtivas se voltam. Antes, porém, haverá a cúpula de Ban Ki Moon, para a qual as lideranças dos países estão convidadas. O objetivo é gerar a sensibilidade política que faltou em Copenhague e tentar definir metas antes da reta derradeira do acordo, em Paris. Esse encontro deve ser precedido e seguido de várias reuniões interseccionais para que os delegados avancem na costura do acordo e para que os itens críticos, como metas de mitigação e financiamento, comecem a adquirir contornos mais concretos.

Em outras palavras, uma agenda consistente de reuniões e o compromisso para apresentar metas no ano que vem são o melhor resultado que podemos esperar de uma conferência que corre o risco de entrar para a História como a CoP do carvão.

Délcio Rodrigues é especialista em Mudanças Climáticas do Vitae Civilis. Silvia Dias, membro do Conselho Deliberativo do Vitae Civilis, acompanha as negociações climáticas desde 2009.

Climate change pledges: rich nations face fury over moves to renege (The Guardian)

Typhoon Haiyan raises fear over global warming threat as Philippines leads attack on eve of key talks

 in Warsaw

The Observer, Sunday 17 November 2013

Typhoon Haiyan

Survivors of Typhoon Haiyan form a queue to receive relief goods at a devasted coastal area in Leyte. Photograph: Dondi Tawatao/Getty Images

Developing nations have launched an impassioned attack on the failure of the world’s richest countries to live up to their climate change pledges in the wake of the disaster in the Philippines.

With more than 3,600 people now believed to have been killed byTyphoon Haiyan, moves by several major economies to backtrack on commitments over carbon emissions have put the world’s poorest and most wealthy states on a collision course, on the eve of crucial high-level talks at a summit of world powers.

Yeb Sano, the Philippines’ lead negotiator at the UN climate change summit being held this weekend in Warsaw, spoke of a major breakdown in relations overshadowing the crucial talks, which are due to pave the way for a 2015 deal to bring down global emissions.

The diplomat, on the sixth day of a hunger strike in solidarity for those affected by Haiyan, including his own family, told the Observer: “We are very concerned. Public announcements from some countries about lowering targets are not conducive to building trust. We must acknowledge the new climate reality and put forward a new system to help us manage the risks and deal with the losses to which we cannot adjust.”

Munjurul Hannan Khan, representing the world’s 47 least affluent countries, said: “They are behaving irrationally and unacceptably. The way they are talking to the most vulnerable countries is not acceptable. Today the poor are suffering from climate change. But tomorrow the rich countries will be. It starts with us but it goes to them.”

Recent decisions by the governments of AustraliaJapan and Canada to downgrade their efforts over climate change have caused panic among those states most affected by global warming, who fear others will follow as they rearrange their priorities during the downturn.

In the last few days, Japan has announced it will backtrack on its pledge to reduce its emission cuts from 25% to 3.8% by 2020 on the basis that it had to close its nuclear reactors after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

Australia, which is not sending a minister to this weekend’s talks,signalled it may weaken its targets and is repealing domestic carbon lawsfollowing the election of a conservative government.

Canada has pulled out of the Kyoto accord, which committed major industrial economies to reducing their annual CO2 emissions to below 1990 levels.

China’s lead negotiator at the Warsaw talks, Su Wei, said: “I do not have any words to describe my dismay at Japan’s decision.” He criticised Europe for showing a lack of ambition to cut emissions further, adding: “They talk about ratcheting up ambition, but rather they would have to ratchet up to ambition from zero ambition.”

When the highest-level talks start at the summit on Monday, due to be attended by representatives from 195 countries, including energy secretary Ed Davey, the developing world will seek confirmation from states such as Britain that they will not follow the path of Japan and others. David Cameron’s comments this weekend in which he backed carbon emission cuts and suggested that there was growing evidence of a link between manmade climate change and disasters such as Typhoon Haiyan, will inevitably be used to pressure others to offer similar assurances.

The developing world also wants the rich western nations to commit to establishing a compensation scheme for future extreme weather events, as the impact of global warming is increasingly felt. And they want firm signals that rich countries intend to find at least $100bn a year by 2020 to help them to adapt their countries to severe climate extremes.

China and 132 nations that are part of the G77 block of developing countries have expressed dismay that rich countries had refused to discuss a proposal for scientists to calculate emissions since the start of the Industrial Revolution.

Ambassador Jose Antonio Marcondes de Carvalho of Brazil, who initially proposed the talks, said: “We were shocked, very much surprised by their rejection and dismissal. It is puzzling. We need to understand why they have rejected it.

“Developing countries are doing vastly more to reduce their emissions than Annexe 1 [rich] countries.”

Members of the Disaster Emergencies Committee, which co-ordinates British aid efforts, also warned leaders that the disaster offers a glimpse of the future if urgent action is not taken.

Aid agencies including Christian Aid, Cafod, Care International, Oxfam and Tearfund said ministers meeting in the Polish capital must act urgently because climate change is likely to make such extreme weather events more common in the future, putting millions more lives at risk.

A Climate-Change Victory (Slate)

If global warming is slowing, thank the Montreal Protocol.

By 

An aerosol spray can.

No CFCs, please. (Photo by iStock)

Climate deniers like to point to the so-called global warming “hiatus” as evidence that humans aren’t changing the climate. But according a new study, exactly the opposite is true: The recent slowdown in global temperature increases is partially the result of one of the few successful international crackdowns on greenhouse gases.

Back in 1988, more than 40 countries, including the United States, signed the Montreal Protocol, an agreement to phase out the use of ozone-depleting gases like chlorofluorocarbons. (Today the protocol has nearly 200 signatories.) According to the Environmental Protection Agency, CFC emissions are down 90 percent since the protocol, a drop that the agency calls “one of the largest reductions to date in global greenhouse gas emissions.” That’s a blessing for the ozone layer, but also for the climate. CFCs are a potent heat-trapping gas, and a new analysis published in Nature Geoscience finds that slashing them has been a major driver of the much-discussed slowdown in global warming.

Without the protocol, environmental economist Francisco Estrada of the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México reports, global temperatures today would be about a tenth of a degree Celsius higher than they are. That’s roughly an eighth of the total warming documented since 1880.

Estrada and his co-authors compared global temperature and greenhouse gas emissions records over the last century and found that breaks in the steady upward march of both coincided closely. At times when emissions leveled off or dropped, such as during the Great Depression, the trend was mirrored in temperatures; likewise for when emissions climbed.

“With these breaks, what’s interesting is that when they’re common that’s pretty indicative of causation,” said Pierre Perron, a Boston University economist who developed the custom-built statistical tests used in the study.

The findings put a new spin on investigation into the cause of the recent “hiatus.” Scientists have suggested that several temporary natural phenomena, including thedeep ocean sucking up more heat, are responsible for this slowdown. Estrada says his findings show that a recent reduction in heat-trapping CFCs as a result of the Montreal Protocol has also played an important role.

“Paradoxically, the recent decrease in warming, presented by global warming skeptics as proof that humankind cannot affect the climate system, is shown to have a direct human origin,” Estrada writes in the study.

The chart below, from a column accompanying the study, illustrates that impact. The solid blue line shows the amount of warming relative to pre-industrial levels attributed to CFCs and other gases regulated by the Montreal Protocol; the dashed blue line is an extrapolation of what the level would be without the agreement. Green represents warming from methane; Estrada suggests that leveling out may be the result of improved farming practices in Asia. The diamonds are annual global temperature averages, with the red line fitted to them. The dashed red line represents Estrada’s projection of where global temperature would be without these recent mitigation efforts.

131115_CDESK_chart

Courtesy of Francisco Estrada via Mother Jones

Estrada said his study doesn’t undermine the commonly accepted view among climate scientists that the global warming effect of greenhouse gases can take years or decades to fully manifest. Even if we cut off all emissions today, we’d still very likely see warming into the future, thanks to the long shelf life of carbon dioxide, the principal climate-change culprit. The study doesn’t let CO2 off the hook: The reduction in warming would likely have been even greater if CO2 had leveled off as much as CFCs and methane. Instead, Estrada said, it has increased 20 percent since the protocol was signed.

Still, the study makes clear that efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions—like arecent international plan to phase out hydrofluorocarbons, a group of cousin chemicals to CFCs that are used in air conditioners and refrigerators, and the Obama administration’s move this year to impose strict new limits on emissions from power plants—can have a big payoff.

“The Montreal Protocol was really successful,” Estrada said. And as policymakers and climate scientists gather in Warsaw, Poland, for the latest U.N. climate summit next week, “this shows that international agreements can really work.”

Mudanças climáticas impulsionam tragédias naturais (O Globo)

JC e-mail 4855, de 13 de novembro de 2013

Condições meteorológicas extremas mataram 530 mil e causaram prejuízos de US$ 2,5 trilhões nos últimos 20 anos

Nos últimos 20 anos as condições meteorológicas extremas mataram 530 mil pessoas no mundo, causando prejuízos econômicos que chegam a US$ 2,5 trilhões, de acordo com o Germanwatch, instituição financiada pelo governo alemão. Este ano, somente o supertufão Haiyan, a 24ª tempestade tropical que assolou as Filipinas em 2013, pode ter matado 10 mil pessoas, embora o presidente Benigno Aquino agora negue a informação. Apesar dos números crescentes de fenômenos naturais extremos, muitos especialistas ainda temem traçar uma ligação direta com as mudanças no clima. A pergunta que muitos se fazem é até quando essa negativa vai continuar emperrando uma negociação mais contundente sobre as reduções das emissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa (GEE), ainda apontados como principal motivo das alterações climáticas.

Em 2012, os países mais afetados por desastres naturais foram o Paquistão, o Haiti e justamente as Filipinas, divulgou ontem a Organização das Nações Unidas.

– A tragédia humana causada pelo desdobramento do Haiyan só será capturada em relatórios futuros – afirmou Soenke Kreft, coautor do documento divulgado nos bastidores da 19ª Conferência do Clima (COP-19), que acontece desde a última segunda-feira na Polônia.

Durante a abertura do evento, o delegado filipino Naderev Sano anunciou greve de fome até o final da conferência, e ontem foi seguido por 30 ativistas num ato tido como o mais importante do segundo dia de debates.

– Vamos fazer um jejum em solidariedade à delegação filipina, com as vítimas do tufão, e até que se concretizem ações políticas reais nesta COP-19 – disse Angeli Apparedi, coordenadora da iniciativa que uniu ONGs de todo o mundo para a causa filipina.

Sano lembrou a urgência de medidas concretas contra o aquecimento global para evitar tragédias como a do Haiyan e pediu para que os países desenvolvidos reduzissem as emissões e aumentassem seu comprometimento com o Fundo Verde do Clima, que deveria repassar US$ 100 bilhões aos países em desenvolvimento para a mitigação das emissões e adaptações aos impactos das mudanças climáticas em 2020. Até 30 de julho deste ano, o fundo, que foi criado em 2010, tinha apenas US$ 9 milhões.

Os desastres e o clima
Apesar do receio do mundo científico em afirmar que essas tragédias estão ligadas às mudanças climáticas, alguns efeitos causados pelo aumento das temperaturas do planeta já são apontados como a principal causa da maior intensidade dos ciclones tropicais.

– Uma coisa é bastante concreta – afirmou Will Steffen, diretor-executivo do “Australian National Climate Change Institute” à Reuters. – A mudança climática está causando o aquecimento das águas da superfície, o que, por sua vez, aumenta a energia deste tipo de tempestade.

Ontem, a Organização Meteorológica Mundial (OMM) divulgou que a média mundial de temperatura entre janeiro e setembro deste ano foi meio ponto superior à registrada entre 1961 e 1990, o que faz de 2013 o ano mais quente da História. Além do aquecimento das águas, o aumento do nível do mar também é outro potencializador do tufões, dizem os especialistas. O relatório da OMM apontou que o nível dos mares e oceanos aumenta em média 3,2 milímetros por ano desde 1993.

– Não podemos afirmar que um fenômeno específico está ligado ou não às mudanças climáticas, pois eles naturalmente sempre aconteceram – diz André Ferretti, coordenador de estratégias de conservação da Fundação Grupo Boticário e também do Observatório do Clima, que acompanha as negociações na Polônia. – Mas já é possível dizer que eles estão mais fortes e frequentes por causa das alterações do clima. Infelizmente isso não deve pressionar os governos para um acordo na COP-19.

Resistência a metas globais atrasam acordo
Um encontro que nasce errado, parte de um raciocínio antigo e é encerrado sem conclusões. Este quadro se encaixa em todos os painéis dedicados ao debate sobre as mudanças climáticas realizados nos últimos anos. Para especialistas, a fórmula pode se repetir nesta Convenção do Clima (COP-19).

Os países em desenvolvimento chegaram à Polônia insistindo em uma tese nascida há mais de 15 anos: “Responsabilidades Comuns, Porém Diferenciadas” no combate às mudanças climáticas. Segundo ela, só nações desenvolvidas devem submeter-se a metas para redução das emissões de CO2.

– É um raciocínio muito simplório – ataca Bernardo Baeta Neves Strassburg, diretor-executivo do Instituto Internacional para Sustentabilidade (IIS) e professor do Departamento de Geografia e Meio Ambiente da PUC-Rio. – Desde que este argumento passou a ser usado, Brasil, Índia e China tornaram-se potências mundiais e, por isso, deveriam ter metas obrigatórias para diminuir suas emissões.

Brasil em posição ambígua
Entre os países emergentes, o Brasil seria o mais disposto a aceitar um acordo que limite a emissão de CO2, mas o governo estaria esperando a decisão da China, maior emissora mundial de gases-estufa, que negocia metas mais modestas.

Para Osvaldo Stella, diretor do Programa de Mudanças Climáticas do Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia (Ipam), o Brasil perdeu força nas conferências internacionais.

– Temos uma posição ambígua – critica. – Estamos entre as maiores economias do mundo, mas nossos problemas estruturais são idênticos aos dos países pobres. Essa contradição dificulta nossa habilidade em negociar.

Strassburg e Stella criticam o modelo do painel da COP, em que as decisões devem ser aceitas por unanimidade.

– É claro que o debate precisa ser democrático, mas questões tão importantes para a Humanidade não podem esbarrar no bloqueio de um determinado tema – ressalta Stella.

Ambos concordam que esta conferência, assim como a COP-20 – que será realizada no ano que vem, no Peru – são fundamentais para que, em 2015, os governantes enfim assinem um acordo que limite as emissões de CO2.

No início da semana, o Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) divulgou algumas adaptações em seu último relatório, concluído em setembro. As mudanças, segundo os cientistas, não são significativas, e foram descobertas após a revisão do documento.

(Maria Clara Serra e Renato Grandelle/O Globo)
http://oglobo.globo.com/ciencia/mudancas-climaticas-impulsionam-tragedias-naturais-10763216#ixzz2kX73SZ00

Geoengineering the Climate Could Reduce Vital Rains (Science Daily)

Oct. 31, 2013 — Although a significant build-up in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would alter worldwide precipitation patterns, a widely discussed technological approach to reduce future global warming would also interfere with rainfall and snowfall, new research shows.

Rice field in Bali. (Credit: © pcruciatti / Fotolia)

The international study, led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), finds that global warming caused by a massive increase in greenhouse gases would spur a nearly 7 percent average increase in precipitation compared to preindustrial conditions.

But trying to resolve the problem through “geoengineering” could result in monsoonal rains in North America, East Asia, and other regions dropping by 5-7 percent compared to preindustrial conditions. Globally, average precipitation could decrease by about 4.5 percent.

“Geoengineering the planet doesn’t cure the problem,” says NCAR scientist Simone Tilmes, lead author of the new study. “Even if one of these techniques could keep global temperatures approximately balanced, precipitation would not return to preindustrial conditions.”

As concerns have mounted about climate change, scientists have studied geoengineering approaches to reduce future warming. Some of these would capture carbon dioxide before it enters the atmosphere. Others would attempt to essentially shade the atmosphere by injecting sulfate particles into the stratosphere or launching mirrors into orbit with the goal of reducing global surface temperatures.

The new study focuses on the second set of approaches, those that would shade the planet. The authors warn, however, that Earth’s climate would not return to its preindustrial state even if the warming itself were successfully mitigated.

“It’s very much a pick-your-poison type of problem,” says NCAR scientist John Fasullo, a co-author. “If you don’t like warming, you can reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the surface and cool the climate. But if you do that, large reductions in rainfall are unavoidable. There’s no win-win option here.”

The study appears in an online issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, published this week by the American Geophysical Union. An international team of scientists from NCAR and 14 other organizations wrote the study, which was funded in part by the National Science Foundation (NSF), NCAR’s sponsor. The team used, among other tools, the NCAR-based Community Earth System Model, which is funded by NSF and the Department of Energy.

Future carbon dioxide, with or without geoengineering

The research team turned to 12 of the world’s leading climate models to simulate global precipitation patterns if the atmospheric level of carbon dioxide, a leading greenhouse gas, reached four times the level of the preindustrial era. They then simulated the effect of reduced incoming solar radiation on the global precipitation patterns.

The scientists chose the artificial scenario of a quadrupling of carbon dioxide levels, which is on the high side of projections for the end of this century, in order to clearly draw out the potential impacts of geoengineering.

In line with other research, they found that an increase in carbon dioxide levels would significantly increase global average precipitation, although there would likely be significant regional variations and even prolonged droughts in some areas.

Much of the reason for the increased rainfall and snowfall has to do with greater evaporation, which would pump more moisture into the atmosphere as a result of more heat being trapped near the surface.

The team then took the research one step further, examining what would happen if a geoengineering approach partially reflected incoming solar radiation high in the atmosphere.

The researchers found that precipitation amounts and frequency, especially for heavy rain events, would decrease significantly. The effects were greater over land than over the ocean, and particularly pronounced during months of heavy, monsoonal rains. Monsoonal rains in the model simulations dropped by an average of 7 percent in North America, 6 percent in East Asia and South America, and 5 percent in South Africa. In India, however, the decrease was just 2 percent. Heavy precipitation further dropped in Western Europe and North America in summer.

A drier atmosphere

The researchers found two primary reasons for the reduced precipitation.

One reason has to do with evaporation. As Earth is shaded and less solar heat reaches the surface, less water vapor is pumped into the atmosphere through evaporation.

The other reason has to do with plants. With more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, plants partially close their stomata, the openings that allow them to take in carbon dioxide while releasing oxygen and water into the atmosphere. Partially shut stomata release less water, so the cooled atmosphere would also become even drier over land.

Tilmes stresses that the authors did not address such questions as how certain crops would respond to a combination of higher carbon dioxide and reduced rainfall.

“More research could show both the positive and negative consequences for society of such changes in the environment,” she says. “What we do know is that our climate system is very complex, that human activity is making Earth warmer, and that any technological fix we might try to shade the planet could have unforeseen consequences.”

The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research manages the National Center for Atmospheric Research under sponsorship by the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.

Journal Reference:

  1. Simone Tilmes, John Fasullo, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Daniel R. Marsh, Michael Mills, Kari Alterskjaer, Helene Muri, Jón E. Kristjánsson, Olivier Boucher, Michael Schulz, Jason N. S. Cole, Charles L. Curry, Andy Jones, Jim Haywood, Peter J. Irvine, Duoying Ji, John C. Moore, Diana B. Karam, Ben Kravitz, Philip J. Rasch, Balwinder Singh, Jin-Ho Yoon, Ulrike Niemeier, Hauke Schmidt, Alan Robock, Shuting Yang, Shingo Watanabe. The hydrological impact of geoengineering in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2013; 118 (19): 11,036 DOI:10.1002/jgrd.50868

The cultures endangered by climate change (PLOS)

Posted: September 9, 2013

By Greg Downey

The Bull of Winter weakens

In 2003, after decades of working with the Viliui Sakha, indigenous horse and cattle breeders in the Vilyuy River region of northeastern Siberia, anthropologist Susan Crate began to hear the local people complain about climate change:

My own “ethnographic moment” occurred when I heard a Sakha elder recount the age-old story of Jyl Oghuha (the bull of winter). Jyl Oghuha’s legacy explains the 100o C annual temperature range of Sakha’s subarctic habitat. Sakha personify winter, the most challenging season for them, in the form of a white bull with blue spots, huge horns, and frosty breath. In early December this bull of winter arrives from the Arctic Ocean to hold temperatures at their coldest (-60o to -65o C; -76o to -85o F) for December and January. Although I had heard the story many times before, this time it had an unexpected ending… (Crate 2008: 570)

Lena Pillars, photo by Maarten Takens (CC BY SA)

Lena Pillars, photo by Maarten Takens (CC BY SA)

This Sakha elder, born in 1935, talked about how the bull symbolically collapsed each spring, but also its uncertain future:

The bull of winter is a legendary Sakha creature whose presence explains the turning from the frigid winter to the warming spring. The legend tells that the bull of winter, who keeps the cold in winter, loses his first horn at the end of January as the cold begins to let go to warmth; then his second horn melts off at the end of February, and finally, by the end of March, he loses his head, as spring is sure to have arrived. It seems that now with the warming, perhaps the bull of winter will no longer be. (ibid.)

Crate found that the ‘softening’ of winter disrupted the Sakha way of life in a number of ways far less prosaic. The winters were warmer, bringing more rain and upsetting the haying season; familiar animals grew less common and new species migrated north; more snow fell, making hunting more difficult in winter; and when that snow thawed, water inundated their towns, fields, and countryside, rotting their houses, bogging down farming, and generally making life more difficult. Or, as a Sakha elder put it to Crate:

I have seen two ugut jil (big water years) in my lifetime. One was the big flood in 1959 — I remember canoeing down the street to our kin’s house. The other is now. The difference is that in ‘59 the water was only here for a few days and now it does not seem to be going away. (Sakha elder, 2009; in Crate 2011: 184).

(Currently, Eastern Russia is struggling with unprecedented flooding along the Chinese border, and, in July, unusual forest fires struck areas of the region that were permafrost.) As I write this, the website CO2 Now reports that the average atmospheric CO2 level for July 2013 at the Mauna Loa Observatory was 397.23 parts per million, slightly below the landmark 400+ ppm levels recorded in May. The vast majority of climate scientists now argue, not about whether we will witness anthropogenic atmospheric change, but how much and how quicklythe climate will change. Will we cross potential ‘tipping points’, when feedback dynamics accelerate the pace of warming?

While climate science might be controversial with the public in the US (less so here in Australia and among scientists), the effects on human populations are more poorly understood and unpredictable, both by the public and scientists alike. Following on from Wendy Foden and colleagues’ piece in the PLOS special collection proposing a method to identify the species at greatest risk (Foden et al. 2013), I want to consider how we might identify which cultures are at greatest risk from climate change.

Will climate change threaten human cultural diversity, and if so, which groups will be pushed to the brink most quickly? Are groups like the Viliui Sakha at the greatest risk, especially as we know that climate change is already affecting the Arctic and warming may be exaggerated there? And what about island groups, threatened by sea level changes? Who will have to change most and adapt because of a shifting climate? Daniel Lende (2013: 496) has suggested that anthropologists need to put our special expertise to work in public commentary, and in the area of climate change, these human impacts seem to be one place where that expertise might be most useful.

The Sakha Republic

The Sakha Republic where the Viliui Sakha live is half of Russia’s Far Eastern Federal District, a district that covers an area almost as large as India, twice the size of Alaska. Nevertheless, fewer than one million people live there, spread thinly across the rugged landscape. The region contains the coldest spot on the planet, the Verkhoyansk Range, where the average January temperature —average — is around -50O, so cold that it doesn’t matter whether that’s Fahrenheit or Celsius.

The area that is now the Sakha Republic was first taken control by Tsarist Russia in the seventeenth century, a tax taken from the local people in furs. Many early Russian migrants to the region adopted Sakha customs. Both the Tsars and the later Communist governors exiled criminals to the region, which came to be called Yakutia; after the fall of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation recognised the Sakha Republic. The Sakha, also called Yakuts, are the largest group in the area today; since the fall of the Soviets, many of the ethnic Russian migrants have left.

Verkhoyansk Mountains, Sakha Republic, by Maarten Takens, CC (BY SA).

Verkhoyansk Mountains, Sakha Republic, by Maarten Takens, CC (BY SA).

Sakha speakers first migrated north into Siberia as reindeer hunters, mixing with and eventually assimilating the Evenki, a Tungus-speaking group that lived there nomadically. Then these nomadic groups were later assimilated or forced further north by more sedentary groups of Sakha who raised horses and practiced more intensive reindeer herding and some agriculture (for more information see Susan Crate’s excellent discussion, ‘The Legacy of the Viliui Reinfeer-Herding Complex’ at Cultural Survival). The later migrants forced those practicing the earlier, nomadic reindeer-herding way of life into the most remote and rugged pockets of the region. By the first part of the twentieth century, Crate reports, the traditional reindeer-herding lifestyle was completely replaced in the Viliui watershed, although people elsewhere in Siberia continued to practice nomadic lifestyles, following herds of reindeer.

Today the economy of the Sakha Republic relies heavily on mining: gold, tin, and especially diamonds. Almost a quarter of all diamonds in the world — virtually all of Russia’s production — comes from Sakha. The great Udachnaya pipe, a diamond deposit just outside the Arctic circle, is now the third deepest open pit mine in the world, extending down more than 600 meters.

A new project promises to build a pipeline to take advantage of the massive Chaynda gas field in Sakha, sending the gas eastward to Vladivostok on Russia’s Pacific coast (story in the Siberia Times). The $24 billion Gazprom pipeline, which President Putin’s office says he wants developed ‘within the tightest possible timescale’, would mean that Russia would not have to sell natural gas exclusively through Europe, opening a line for direct delivery into the Pacific.

The Sakha have made the transition to the post-Soviet era remarkably well, with a robust economy and a political system that seems capable of balancing development and environmental safeguards (Crate 2003). But after successfully navigating a political thaw, will the Sakha, and other indigenous peoples of the region, fall victim to a much more literal warming?

The United Nations on indigenous people and climate change

This past month, we celebrated the International Day of the World’s Indigenous People (9 August). From 2005 to 2014, the United Nations called for ‘A Decade for Action and Dignity.’ The focus of this year’s observance is ‘Indigenous peoples building alliances: Honouring treaties, agreements and other constructive arrangements’ (for more information, here’s the UN’s website). According to the UN Development Programme, the day ‘presents an opportunity to honour diverse indigenous cultures and recognize the achievements and valuable contributions of an estimated 370 million indigenous peoples.’

The UN has highlighted the widespread belief that climate change will be especially cruel to indigenous peoples:

Despite having contributed the least to GHG [green house gas], indigenous peoples are the ones most at risk from the consequences of climate change because of their dependence upon and close relationship with the environment and its resources. Although climate change is regionally specific and will be significant for indigenous peoples in many different ways, indigenous peoples in general are expected to be disproportionately affected. Indigenous communities already affected by other stresses (such as, for example, the aftermath of resettlement processes), are considered especially vulnerable. (UN 2009: 95)

The UN’s report, State of the World’s Indigenous People, goes on to cite the following specific ‘changes or even losses in the biodiversity of their environment’ for indigenous groups, that will directly threaten aspects of indigenous life:

  • the traditional hunting, fishing and herding practices of indigenous peoples, not only in the Arctic, but also in other parts of the world;

  • the livelihood of pastoralists worldwide;

  • the traditional agricultural activities of indigenous peoples living in mountainous regions;

  • the cultural and ritual practices that are not only related to specific species or specific annual cycles, but also to specific places and spiritual sites, etc.;

  • the health of indigenous communities (vector-borne diseases, hunger, etc.);

  • the revenues from tourism. (ibid.: 96)

For example, climate change has been linked to extreme drought in Kenya where the Maasai, pastoral peoples, find their herds shrinking and good pasture harder and harder to find. For the Kamayurá in the Xingu region of Brazil, less rain and warmer water have decimated fish stocks in their river and made cassava cultivation a hit and miss affair; children are reduced to eating ants on flatbread to stave off hunger.

The UN report touches on a number of different ecosystems where the impacts of climate change will be especially severe, singling out the Arctic:

The Arctic region is predicted to lose whole ecosystems, which will have implications for the use, protection and management of wildlife, fisheries, and forests, affecting the customary uses of culturally and economically important species and resources. Arctic indigenous communities—as well as First Nations communities in Canada—are already experiencing a decline in traditional food sources, such as ringed seal and caribou, which are mainstays of their traditional diet. Some communities are being forced to relocate because the thawing permafrost is damaging the road and building infrastructure. Throughout the region, travel is becoming dangerous and more expensive as a consequence of thinning sea ice, unpredictable freezing and thawing of rivers and lakes, and the delay in opening winter roads (roads that can be used only when the land is frozen). (ibid.: 97)

Island populations are also often pointed out as being on the sharp edge of climate change (Lazrus 2012). The award-winning film, ‘There Once Was an Island,’ focuses on a community in the Pacific at risk from a rise in the sea level. As a website for the film describes:

Takuu, a tiny atoll in Papua New Guinea, contains the last Polynesian culture of its kind.  Facing escalating climate-related impacts, including a terrifying flood, community members Teloo, Endar, and Satty, take us on an intimate journey to the core of their lives and dreams. Will they relocate to war-ravaged Bougainville – becoming environmental refugees – or fight to stay? Two visiting scientists investigate on the island, leading audience and community to a greater understanding of climate change.

Similarly, The Global Mail reported the island nation of Kiribati was likely to become uninhabitable in coming decades, not simply because the islands flood but because patterns of rainfall shift and seawater encroaches on the coastal aquifer, leaving wells saline and undrinkable.

Heather Lazrus (2012: 288) reviews a number of other cases:

Low-lying islands and coastal areas such as the Maldives; the Marshall Islands; the Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, and Tuvalu; and many arctic islands such as Shishmaref… and the small islands in Nunavut… may be rendered uninhabitable as sea levels rise and freshwater resources are reduced.

Certainly, the evidence from twentieth century cases in which whole island populations were relocated suggests that the move can be terribly disruptive, the social damage lingering long after suitcases are unpacked.

Adding climate injury to cultural insult

In fact, even before average temperatures climbed or sea levels rose, indigenous groups were already at risk and have been for a while. By nearly every available measure, indigenous peoples’ distinctive lifeways and the globe’s cultural diversity are threatened, not so much by climate, but by their wealthier, more technologically advanced neighbours, who often exercise sovereignty over them.

If we take language diversity as an index of cultural distinctiveness, for example, linguist Howard Krauss (1992: 4) warned in the early 1990s that a whole range of languages were either endangered or ‘moribund,’ no longer being learned by new speakers or young people. These moribund languages, Krauss pointed out, would inevitably die with a speaker who had already been born, an individual who would someday be unable to converse in that language because there would simply be no one else to talk to:

The Eyak language of Alaska now has two aged speakers; Mandan has 6, Osage 5, Abenaki-Penobscot 20, and Iowa has 5 fluent speakers. According to counts in 1977, already 13 years ago, Coeur d’Alene had fewer than 20, Tuscarora fewer than 30, Menomini fewer than 50, Yokuts fewer than 10. On and on this sad litany goes, and by no means only for Native North America. Sirenikski Eskimo has two speakers, Ainu is perhaps extinct. Ubykh, the Northwest Caucasian language with the most consonants, 80-some, is nearly extinct, with perhaps only one remaining speaker. (ibid.)

Two decades ago, Krauss went on to estimate that 90% of the Arctic indigenous languages were ‘moribund’; 80% of the Native North American languages; 90% of Aboriginal Australian languages (ibid.: 5). Although the estimate involved a fair bit of guesswork, and we have seen some interesting evidence of ‘revivals’, Krauss suggested that 50% of all languages on earth were in danger of disappearing.

The prognosis may not be quite as grim today, but the intervening years have confirmed the overall pattern. Just recently, The Times of India reported that the country has lost 20% of its languages since 1961 — 220 languages disappeared in fifty years, with the pace accelerating. The spiffy updated Ethnologue website, based upon a more sophisticated set of categories and more precise accounting, suggests that, of the 7105 languages that they recognise globally, around 19% are ‘moribund’ or in worse shape, while another 15% are shrinking but still being taught to new users (see Ethnologue’s discussion of language status here  and UNESCO’s interactive atlas of endangered languages).

Back in 2010, I argued that the disappearance of languages was a human rights issue, not simply the inevitable by-product of cultural ‘evolution’, economic motivations, and globalisation (‘Language extinction ain’t no big thing?’ – butbeware as my style of blogging has changed a lot since then). Few peoples voluntarily forsake their mother tongues; the disappearance of a language or assimilation of a culture is generally not a path strode by choice, but a lessor-of-evils choice when threatened with chronic violence, abject poverty, and marginalisation.

I’ve also written about the case of ‘uncontacted’ Indians on the border of Brazil and Peru, where Western observers sometimes assume that indigenous peoples assimilate because they seek the benefits of ‘modernization’ when, in fact, they are more commonly the victims of exploitation and violent displacement. Just this June, a group of Mashco-Piro, an isolated indigenous group in Peru that has little contact with other societies, engaged in a tense stand-off at the Las Piedras river, a tributary of the Amazon. Caught on video, they appeared to be trying to contact or barter with local Yine Indians at a ranger station. Not only have this group of the Mashco-Piro fought in previous decades with loggers, but they now find that low-flying planes are disturbing their territory in search of natural gas and oil. (Globo Brasil also released footage taken in 2011 by officials from Brazil’s National Indian Foundation, FUNAI, of the Kawahiva, also called the Rio Pardo Indians, an isolated group from Mato Grosso state.)

In 1992, Krauss pleaded with fellow scholars to do something about the loss of cultural variation, lest linguistics ‘go down in history as the only science that presided obliviously over the disappearance of 90% of the very field to which it is dedicated’ (1992: 10):

Surely, just as the extinction of any animal species diminishes our world, so does the extinction of any language. Surely we linguists know, and the general public can sense, that any language is a supreme achievement of a uniquely human collective genius, as divine and endless a mystery as a living organism. Should we mourn the loss of Eyak or Ubykh any less than the loss of the panda or California condor? (ibid.: 8)

The pace of extinction is so quick that some activists, like anthropologist and attorney David Lempert (2010), argue that our field needs to collaborate on the creation of a cultural ‘Red Book,’ analogous to the Red Book for Endangered Species. Anthropologists may fight over the theoretical consequences of reifying cultures, but the political and legal reality is that even states with laws on the books to protect cultural diversity often have no clear guidelines as to what that entails.

But treating cultures solely as fragile victims of climate change misrepresents how humans will adapt to climate change. Culture is not merely a fixed tradition, calcified ‘customs’ at risk from warming; culture is also out adaptive tool, the primary way in which our ancestors adapted to such a great range of ecological niches in the first place and we will continue to adapt into the future. And this is not the first time that indigenous groups have confronted climate change.

Culture as threatened, culture as adaptation

One important stream of research in the anthropology of climate change shows very clearly that indigenous cultures are quite resilient in the face of environmental change. Anthropologist Sarah Strauss of the University of Wyoming has cautioned that, if we only focus on cultural extinction from climate change as a threat, we may miss the role of culture in allowing people toaccommodate wide variation in the environment:

People are extraordinarily resilient. Our cultures have allowed human groups to colonize the most extreme reaches of planet Earth, and no matter where we have gone, we have contended with both environmental and social change…. For this reason, I do not worry that the need to adapt to new and dramatic environmental changes (those of our own making, as well as natural occurrences like volcanoes) will drive cultures—even small island cultures—to disappear entirely.  (Strauss 2012: n.p. [2])

A number of ethnographic cases show how indigenous groups can adapt to severe climatic shifts. Crate (2008: 571), for example, points out that the Sakha adapted to a major migration northward, transforming a Turkic culture born in moderate climates to suit their new home. Kalaugher (2010) also discusses the Yamal Nenets, another group of Siberian nomads, who adapted to both climate change and industrial encroachment, including the arrival of oil and gas companies that fouled waterways and degraded their land (Survival International has a wonderful photo essay about the Yamal Nenets here.). A team led by Bruce Forbes of the University of Lapland, Finland, found:

The Nenet have responded by adjusting their migration routes and timing, avoiding disturbed and degraded areas, and developing new economic practices and social interaction, for example by trading with workers who have moved into gas villages in the area. (article here)

Northeast Science Station, Cherskiy, Sakha Republic, by David Mayer, CC (BY NC SA).

Northeast Science Station, Cherskiy, Sakha Republic, by David Mayer, CC (BY NC SA).

But one of the most amazing stories about the resilience and adaptability of the peoples of the Arctic comes from Wade Davis, anthropologist and National Geographic ‘explorer in residence.’ In his wonderful TED presentation, ‘Dreams from endangered cultures,’ Davis tells a story he heard on a trip to the northern tip of Baffin Island, Canada:

…this man, Olayuk, told me a marvelous story of his grandfather. The Canadian government has not always been kind to the Inuit people, and during the 1950s, to establish our sovereignty, we forced them into settlements. This old man’s grandfather refused to go. The family, fearful for his life, took away all of his weapons, all of his tools. Now, you must understand that the Inuit did not fear the cold; they took advantage of it. The runners of their sleds were originally made of fish wrapped in caribou hide. So, this man’s grandfather was not intimidated by the Arctic night or the blizzard that was blowing. He simply slipped outside, pulled down his sealskin trousers and defecated into his hand. And as the feces began to freeze, he shaped it into the form of a blade. He put a spray of saliva on the edge of the shit knife, and as it finally froze solid, he butchered a dog with it. He skinned the dog and improvised a harness, took the ribcage of the dog and improvised a sled, harnessed up an adjacent dog, and disappeared over the ice floes, shit knife in belt. Talk about getting by with nothing.

… and there’s nothing more than I can say after ‘… and disappeared over the ice floes, shit knife in belt’ that can make this story any better…

Climate change in context

The problem for many indigenous cultures is not climate change alone or in isolation, but the potential speed of that change and how it interacts with other factors, many human-induced: introduced diseases, environmental degradation, deforestation and resource depletion, social problems such as substance abuse and domestic violence, and legal systems imposed upon them, including forced settlement and forms of property that prevent movement. As Strauss explains:

Many researchers… see climate change not as a separate problem, in fact, but rather as an intensifier, which overlays but does not transcend the rest of the challenges we face; it is therefore larger in scale and impact, perhaps, but not entirely separable from the many other environmental and cultural change problems already facing human societies. (Strauss 2012: n.p. [2])

One of the clearest examples of these intensifier effects is the way in which nomadic peoples, generally quite resilient, lose their capacity to adapt when they are prevented from moving. The Siberian Yamal Nenets makes this clear:

“We found that free access to open space has been critical for success, as each new threat has arisen, and that institutional constraints and drivers were as important as the documented ecological changes,” said Forbes. “Our findings point to concrete ways in which the Nenets can continue to coexist as their lands are increasingly fragmented by extensive natural gas production and a rapidly warming climate.” (Kalaugher 2010)

With language loss in India, it’s probably no coincidence that, ‘Most of the lost languages belonged to nomadic communities scattered across the country’ (Times of India).

In previous generations, if climate changed, nomadic groups might have migrated to follow familiar resources or adopt techniques from neighbours who had already adapted to forces novel to them. An excellent recent documentary series on the way that Australian Aboriginal people have adapted to climate change on our continent — the end of an ice age, the extinction of megafauna, wholesale climate change including desertification — is a striking example (the website for the series, First Footprints, is excellent).

Today, migration is treated by UN officials and outsiders as ‘failure to adapt’, as people who move fall under the new rubric of ‘climate refugees’ (Lazrus 2012: 293). Migration, instead of being recognised as an adaptive strategy, is treated as just another part of the diabolical problem. (Here in Australia, where refugees on boats trigger unmatched political hysteria, migration from neighbouring areas would be treated as a national security problem rather than an acceptable coping strategy.)

For the most part, the kind of migration that first brought the Viliui Sakha to northeastern Siberia is no longer possible. As the Yamal Nenets, for example, migrate with their herds of reindeer, the come across the drills, pipelines, and even the Obskaya-Bovanenkovo railway – the northern-most railway line in the world – all part of Gazprom’s ‘Yamal Megaproject.’  Endangered indigenous groups are hemmed in on all sides, surviving only in geographical niches that were not attractive to their dominant neighbours, unsuitable for farming. AsElisabeth Rosenthal wrote in The New York Times:

Throughout history, the traditional final response for indigenous cultures threatened by untenable climate conditions or political strife was to move. But today, moving is often impossible. Land surrounding tribes is now usually occupied by an expanding global population, and once-nomadic groups have often settled down, building homes and schools and even declaring statehood.

For the Kamayurá, for example, eating ants instead of fish in Brazil’s Xingu National Park, they are no longer surrounded by the vast expanse of the Amazon and other rivers where they might still fish; the park is now surrounded by ranches and farms, some of which grow sugarcane to feed Brazil’s vast ethanol industry or raise cattle to feed the world’s growing appetite for beef.

Now, some of these indigenous groups find themselves squarely in the path of massive new resource extraction projects with nowhere to go, whether that’s in northern Alberta, eastern Peru, Burma, or remnant forests in Indonesia. That is, indigenous peoples have adapted before to severe climate change; but how much latitude (literally) do these groups now have to adapt if we do not allow them to move?

In sum, indigenous people are often not directly threatened by climate change alone; rather, they are pinched between climate change and majority cultures who want Indigenous peoples’ resources while also preventing them from adapting in familiar ways. The irony is that the dynamic driving climate change is attacking them from two sides: the forests that they need, the mountains where they keep their herds, and the soil under the lands where they live are being coveted for the very industrial processes that belch excess carbon into the atmosphere.

It’s hard not to be struck by the bitter tragedy that, in exchange for the resources to which we are addicted, we offer them assimilation. If they get out of the way so that we can drill out the gas or oil under their land or take their forests, we will invite them in join in our addiction (albeit, as much poorer addicts on the fringes of our societies, if truth be told). They have had little say in the process, or in our efforts to mitigate the process. We assume that our technologies and ways of life are the only potential cure for the problems created by these very technologies and ways of life.

In 2008, for example, Warwick Baird, Director of the Native Title Unit of the Australian Human Rights and Equal Opportunity Commission, warned that the shift to an economic mode of addressing climate change abatement threatened to further sideline indigenous people:

Things are moving fast in the world of climate change policy and the urgency is only going to get greater. Yet Indigenous peoples, despite their deep engagement with the land and waters, it seems to me, have little engagement with the formulation of climate change policy little engagement in climate change negotiations ­ and little engagement in developing and applying mitigation and adaptation strategies. They have not been included. Human rights have not been at the forefront. (transcript of speech here)

The problem then is not that indigenous populations are especially fragile or unable to adapt; in fact, both human prehistory and history demonstrate that these populations are remarkably resilient. Rather, many of these populations have been pushed to the brink, forced to choose between assimilation or extinction by the unceasing demands of the majority cultures they must live along side. The danger is not that the indigenous will fall off the precipice, but rather that the flailing attempts of the resource-thirsty developed world toavoid inevitable culture change — the necessary move away from unsustainable modes of living — will push much more sustainable lifeways over the edge into the abyss first.

Links

Inuit Knowledge and Climate Change (54:07 documentary).
Isuma TV, network of Inuit and Indigenous media producers.

Inuit Perspectives on Recent Climate Change, Skeptical Science, by Caitlyn Baikie, an Inuit geography student at Memorial University of Newfoundland.

Images

The Lena Pillars by Maarten Takens, CC licensed (BY SA). Original at Flickr:http://www.flickr.com/photos/takens/8512871877/

Verkhoyansk Mountains, Sakha Republic, by Maarten Takens, CC licensed (BY SA). Original at Flickr:http://www.flickr.com/photos/35742910@N05/8582017913/in/photolist-e5n5W6-dVQQHP-dYfGe4-dWzA7s-dW8maK-89CRTd-89zppv-7yp2ht-8o9NBd-89CBRs-dWNM2R-8SLQrQ

Northeast Science Station in late July 2012. Cherskiy, Sakha Republic, Russia, by David Mayer, CC licensed (BY NC SA). Original at Flickr:http://www.flickr.com/photos/56778570@N02/8760624135/in/photolist-em9ukH-dSXQnN

References

Crate, S. A. 2003. Co-option in Siberia: The Case of Diamonds and the Vilyuy Sakha. Polar Geography 26(4): 289–307. doi: 10.1080/789610151 (pdf available here)

Crate, S. 2008. Gone the Bull of Winter? Grappling with the Cultural Implications of and Anthropology’s Role(s) in Global Climate Change. Current Anthropology 49(4): 569-595. doi: 10.1086/529543. Stable URL:http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/529543

Crate, S. 2011. Climate and Culture: Anthropology in the Era of Contemporary Climate Change. Annual Review of Anthropology 40:175–94. doi:10.1146/annurev.anthro.012809.104925 (pdf available here)

Cruikshank, J. 2001. Glaciers and Climate Change: Perspectives from Oral Tradition. Arctic 54(4): 377-393. Article Stable URL:http://www.jstor.org/stable/40512394

Foden WB, Butchart SHM, Stuart SN, Vié J-C, Akçakaya HR, et al. (2013) Identifying the World’s Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds, Amphibians and Corals. PLoS ONE 8(6): e65427. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0065427

Kalaugher L. 2010. Learning from Siberian Nomads’ Resilience. Bristol, UK: Environ. Res. Web.http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/41363

Krauss, M. 1992. The world’s languages in crisis. Language 68(1): 4-10. (pdf available here)

Lazrus, H. 2012. Sea Change: Island Communities and Climate Change. Annu. Rev. Anthropology 41:285–301. doi: 10.1146/annurev-anthro-092611-145730

Lempert, D. 2010. Why We Need a Cultural Red Book for Endangered Cultures, NOW: How Social Scientists and Lawyers/ Rights Activists Need to Join Forces.International Journal on Minority and Group Rights 17: 511–550. doi: 10.1163/157181110X531420

Lende, D. H. 2013. The Newtown Massacre and Anthropology’s Public Response. American Anthropologist 115 (3): 496–501. doi:10.1111/aman.12031

Strauss, S. 2012. Are cultures endangered
by climate change? Yes, but. . . WIREs Clim Change. doi: 10.1002/wcc.181 (pdf available here)

United Nations. 2009. The State of the World’s Indigenous People. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, ST/ESA/328. United Nations Publications: New York. (available online as a pdf)

Secretária-executiva de painel da ONU chora ao falar sobre mudanças climáticas (O Globo)

23 de outubro de 2013

Christiana Figueres, chefe do IPCC, ficou emocionada ao falar sobre impacto das alterações nas futuras gerações em conferência em Londres

Secretária-executiva do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas da ONU (IPCC), a costa-riquenha Christiana Figueres fez uma defesa apaixonada das negociações em torno de um novo acordo global para combater o problema em conferência nesta segunda-feira em Londres. Em seu discurso durante o evento, Figueres reclamou da lentidão nas conversas, mas mostrou-se otimista quanto à possibilidade de em 2015 ser assinado um acerto que obrigue o cumprimento de metas de redução da emissão de gases do efeito estufa pelos principais países poluidores do mundo a partir de 2020.

– Sempre fico frustrada com o ritmo das negociações, nasci impaciente – disse Figueres. – Estamos avançando muito, muito devagar, mas estamos indo na direção certa e é isso que me dá coragem e esperança.

E Figueres manteve o tom apaixonado depois do discurso. Abordada por um repórter da rede britânica de TV BBC, que lhe perguntou sobre o impacto das mudanças climáticas, ela ficou emocionada e chegou a chorar.

– Estou comprometida com (a luta contra) as mudanças climáticas por causa das futuras gerações e não por nós, certo? Nós estamos partindo daqui – disse. – Simplesmente sinto que é totalmente injusto e imoral o que estamos fazendo com as futuras gerações. Estamos condenando elas antes mesmo de elas nascerem. Mas temos uma escolha sobre isso, esta é a questão, temos uma escolha. Se (as mudanças climáticas) forem inevitáveis, então que sejam, mas temos a escolha de tentar mudar o futuro que vamos dar às nossas crianças.

(O Globo)

http://oglobo.globo.com/ciencia/secretaria-executiva-de-painel-da-onu-chora-ao-falar-sobre-mudancas-climaticas-10488256#ixzz2iYDyHz8N

Ice Cap Shows Ancient Mines Polluted the Globe (New York Times)

By MALCOLM W. BROWNE

Published: December 09, 1997

SAMPLES extracted from Greenland’s two-mile-deep ice cap have yielded evidence that ancient Carthaginian and Roman silver miners working in southern Spain fouled the global atmosphere with lead for some 900 years.

The Greenland ice cap accumulates snow year after year, and substances from the atmosphere are entrapped in the permanent ice. From 1990 to 1992, a drill operated by the European Greenland Ice-Core Project recovered a cylindrical ice sample 9,938 feet long, pieces of which were distributed to participating laboratories. The ages of successive layers of the ice cap have been accurately determined, so the chemical makeup of the atmosphere at any given time in the past 9,000 years can be estimated by analyzing the corresponding part of the core sample.

Using exquisitely sensitive techniques to measure four different isotopes of lead in the Greenland ice, scientists in Australia and France determined that most of the man-made lead pollution of the atmosphere in ancient times had come from the Spanish provinces of Huelva, Seville, Almeria and Murcia. Isotopic analysis clearly pointed to the rich silver-mining and smelting district of Rio Tinto near the modern city of Nerva as the main polluter.

The results of this study were reported in the current issue of Environmental Science & Technology by Dr. Kevin J. R. Rosman of Curtin University in Perth, Australia, and his colleagues there and at the Laboratory of Glaciology and Geophysics of the Environment in Grenoble, France.

One of the problems in their analyses, the authors wrote, was the very low concentrations of lead remaining in ice dating from ancient times — only about one-hundredth the lead level found in Greenland ice deposited in the last 30 years. But the investigators used mass-spectrometric techniques that permitted them to sort out isotopic lead composition at lead levels of only about one part per trillion.

Dr. Rosman focused on the ratio of two stable isotopes, or forms, of lead: lead-206 and lead-207. His group found that the ratio of lead-206 to lead-207 in 8,000-year-old ice was 1.201. That was taken as the natural ratio that existed before people began smelting ores. But between 600 B.C. and A.D. 300, the scientists found, the ratio of lead-206 to lead-207 fell to 1.183. They called that ”unequivocal evidence of early large-scale atmospheric pollution by this toxic metal.”

All ore bodies containing lead have their own isotopic signatures, and the Rio Tinto lead ratio is 1.164. Calculations by the Australian-French collaboration based on their ice-core analysis showed that during the period 366 B.C. to at least A.D. 36, a period when the Roman Empire was at its peak, 70 percent of the global atmospheric lead pollution came from the Roman-operated Rio Tinto mines in what is now southwestern Spain.

The Rio Tinto mining region is known to archeologists as one of the richest sources of silver in the ancient world. Some 6.6 million tons of slag were left by Roman smelting operations there.

The global demand for silver increased dramatically after coinage was introduced in Greece around 650 B.C. But silver was only one of the treasures extracted from its ore. The sulfide ore smelted by the Romans also yielded an enormous harvest of lead.

Because it is easily shaped, melted and molded, lead was widely used by the Romans for plumbing, stapling masonry together, casting statues and manufacturing many kinds of utensils. All these uses presumably contributed to the chronic poisoning of Rome’s peoples.

Adding to the toxic hazard, Romans used lead vessels to boil and concentrate fruit juices and preserves. Fruits contain acetic acid, which reacts with metallic lead to form lead acetate, a compound once known as ”sugar of lead.” Lead acetate adds a pleasant sweet taste to food but causes lead poisoning — an ailment that is often fatal and, even in mild cases, causes debilitation and loss of cognitive ability.

Judging from the Greenland ice core, the smelting of lead-bearing ore declined sharply after the fall of the Roman Empire but gradually increased during the Renaissance. By 1523, the last year for which Dr. Rosman’s group conducted its Greenland ice analysis, atmospheric lead pollution had reached nearly the same level recorded for the year 79 B.C., at the peak of Roman mining pollution.

How Scott Collis Is Harnessing New Data To Improve Climate Models (Popular Science)

The former ski bum built open-access tools that convert raw data from radar databases into formats that climate modelers can use to better predict climate change.

By Veronique Greenwood and Valerie Ross

Posted 10.16.2013 at 3:00 pm

Scott Collis (by Joel Kimmel)

Each year, Popular Science seeks out the brightest young scientists and engineers and names them the Brilliant Ten. Like the 110 honorees before them, the members of this year’s class are dramatically reshaping their fields–and the future. Some are tackling pragmatic questions, like how to secure the Internet, while others are attacking more abstract ones, like determining the weather on distant exoplanets. The common thread between them is brilliance, of course, but also impact. If the Brilliant Ten are the faces of things to come, the world will be a safer, smarter, and brighter place.–The Editors

Scott Collis

Argonne National Laboratory

Achievement

Harnessing new data to improve climate models

Clouds are one of the great challenges for climate scientists. They play a complex role in the atmosphere and in any potential climate-change scenario. But rudimentary data has simplified their role in simulations, leading to variability among climate models. Scott Collis discovered a way to add accuracy to forecasts of future climate—by tapping new sources of cloud data.

Collis has extensive experience watching clouds, first as a ski bum during grad school in Australia and then as a professional meteorologist. But when he took a job at the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, he realized there was an immense source of cloud data that climate modelers weren’t using: the information collected for weather forecasts. So Collis took on the gargantuan task of building open-access tools that convert the raw data from radar databases into formats that climate modelers can use. In one stroke, Collis unlocked years of weather data. “We were able to build such robust algorithms that they could work over thousands of radar volumes without human intervention,” says Collis.

When the U.S. Department of Energy caught wind of his project, it recruited him to work with a new radar network designed to collect high-quality cloud data from all over the globe. The network, the largest of its kind, isn’t complete yet, but already the data that Collis and his collaborators have collected is improving next-generation climate models.

Click here to see more from our annual celebration of young researchers whose innovations will change the world. This article originally appeared in the October 2013 issue of Popular Science.

Carbon Cycle Models Underestimate Indirect Role of Animals (Science Daily)

Oct. 16, 2013 — Animal populations can have a far more significant impact on carbon storage and exchange in regional ecosystems than is typically recognized by global carbon models, according to a new paper authored by researchers at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies (F&ES). 

Wildebeests herd, Serengeti. Scientists found that a decline in wildebeest populations in the Serengeti-Mara grassland-savanna system decades ago allowed organic matter to accumulate, which eventually led to about 80 percent of the ecosystem to burn annually, releasing carbon from the plants and the soil, before populations recovered in recent years. (Credit: © photocreo / Fotolia)

In fact, in some regions the magnitude of carbon uptake or release due to the effects of specific animal species or groups of animals — such as the pine beetles devouring forests in western North America — can rival the impact of fossil fuel emissions for the same region, according to the paper published in the journal Ecosystems.

While models typically take into account how plants and microbes affect the carbon cycle, they often underestimate how much animals can indirectly alter the absorption, release, or transport of carbon within an ecosystem, says Oswald Schmitz, the Oastler Professor of Population and Community Ecology at F&ES and lead author of the paper. Historically, the role of animals has been largely underplayed since animal species are not distributed globally and because the total biomass of animals is vastly lower than the plants that they rely upon, and therefore contribute little carbon in the way of respiration.

“What these sorts of analyses have not paid attention to is what we call the indirect multiplier effects,” Schmitz says. “And these indirect effects can be quite huge — and disproportionate to the biomass of the species that are instigating the change.”

In the paper, “Animating the Carbon Cycle,” a team of 15 authors from 12 universities, research organizations and government agencies cites numerous cases where animals have triggered profound impacts on the carbon cycle at local and regional levels.

In one case, an unprecedented loss of trees triggered by the pine beetle outbreak in western North America has decreased the net carbon balance on a scale comparable to British Columbia’s current fossil fuel emissions.

And in East Africa, scientists found that a decline in wildebeest populations in the Serengeti-Mara grassland-savanna system decades ago allowed organic matter to accumulate, which eventually led to about 80 percent of the ecosystem to burn annually, releasing carbon from the plants and the soil, before populations recovered in recent years.

“These are examples where the animals’ largest effects are not direct ones,” Schmitz says. “But because of their presence they mitigate or mediate ecosystem processes that then can have these ramifying effects.”

“We hope this article will inspire scientists and managers to include animals when thinking of local and regional carbon budgets,” said Peter Raymond, a professor of ecosystem ecology at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies.

According to the authors, a more proper assessment of such phenomena could provide insights into management schemes that could help mitigate the threat of climate change.

For example, in the Arctic, where about 500 gigatons of carbon is stored in permafrost, large grazing mammals like caribou and muskoxen can help maintain the grasslands that have a high albedo and thus reflect more solar energy. In addition, by trampling the ground these herds can actually help reduce the rate of permafrost thaw, researchers say.

“It’s almost an argument for rewilding places to make sure that the natural balance of predators and prey are there,” Schmitz says. “We’re not saying that managing animals will offset these carbon emissions. What we’re trying to say is the numbers are of a scale where it is worthwhile to start thinking about how animals could be managed to accomplish that.”

Journal Reference:

  1. Oswald J. Schmitz, Peter A. Raymond, James A. Estes, Werner A. Kurz, Gordon W. Holtgrieve, Mark E. Ritchie, Daniel E. Schindler, Amanda C. Spivak, Rod W. Wilson, Mark A. Bradford, Villy Christensen, Linda Deegan, Victor Smetacek, Michael J. Vanni, Christopher C. Wilmers.Animating the Carbon CycleEcosystems, 2013; DOI:10.1007/s10021-013-9715-7

Cockroach farms multiplying in China (L.A.Times)

Dried cockroaches are ready to be sold to pharmaceutical companies from a farm in Jinan, China. One farmer says the insects are easy to raise and profitable.

Farmers are pinning their future on the often-dreaded insect, which when dried goes for as much as $20 a pound — for use in Asian medicine and in cosmetics.

BY BARBARA DEMICK

PHOTOGRAPHY AND VIDEO BY WANG XUHUA

REPORTING FROM JINAN, CHINA

Oct. 15, 2013

This squat concrete building was once a chicken coop, but now it’s part of a farm with an entirely different kind of livestock — millions of cockroaches.

Inside, squirming masses of the reddish-brown insects dart between sheets of corrugated metal and egg cartons that have been tied together to provide the kind of dark hiding places they favor.

Wang Fuming kneels down and pulls out one of the nests. Unaccustomed to the light, the roaches scurry about, a few heading straight up his arm toward his short-sleeve shirt.

“Nothing to be afraid of,” Wang counsels visitors who are shrinking back into the hallway, where stray cockroaches cling to a ceiling that’s perilously close overhead.

Although cockroaches evoke a visceral dread for most people, Wang looks at them fondly as his fortune — and his future.

People laughed at me when I started, but I always thought that cockroaches would bring me wealth.”

— Zou Hui, cockroach farmer

The 43-year-old businessman is the largest cockroach producer in China (and thus probably in the world), with six farms populated by an estimated 10 million cockroaches. He sells them to producers of Asian medicine and to cosmetic companies that value the insects as a cheap source of protein as well as for the cellulose-like substance on their wings.

The favored breed for this purpose is the Periplaneta americana, or American cockroach, a reddish-brown insect that grows to about 1.6 inches long and, when mature, can fly, as opposed to the smaller, darker, wingless German cockroach.

Since Wang got into the business in 2010, the price of dried cockroaches has increased tenfold, from about $2 a pound to as much as $20, as manufacturers of traditional medicine stockpile pulverized cockroach powder.

“I thought about raising pigs, but with traditional farming, the profit margins are very low,” Wang said. “With cockroaches, you can invest 20 yuan and get back 150 yuan,” or $3.25 for a return of $11.

China has about 100 cockroach farms, and new ones are opening almost as fast as the prolific critters breed. But even among Chinese, the industry was little known until August, when a million cockroaches got out of a farm in neighboring Jiangsu province. The Great Escape made headlines around China and beyond, evoking biblical images of swarming locusts.

Big moneymaker

Business is booming at the Shandong Xin Da Ground Beetle Farm.

Only the prospect of all those lost earnings would faze Wang, a compact man with a wisp of a mustache and wire-rim glasses who looks like a scientist, but has no more than a high school education. After graduating, he went to work in a tire factory.

“I felt I would never get anywhere in life at the factory and I wanted to start a business,” he said.

As a boy he had liked collecting insects, so he started with scorpions and beetles, both used in traditional medicine and served as a delicacy. One batch of his beetle eggs turned out to be contaminated with cockroach eggs.

“I was accidentally raising cockroaches and then I realized they were the easiest and most profitable,” he said.

The start-up costs are minimal — Wang bought only eggs, a run-down abandoned chicken coop and the roofing tile. Notoriously hearty, roaches aren’t susceptible to the same diseases as farm animals. As for feeding them, cockroaches are omnivores, though they favor rotten vegetables. Wang feeds his brood with potato and pumpkin peelings discarded from nearby restaurants.

Cockroaches are survivors. We want to know what makes them so strong.”

— Li Shunan, professor of traditional medicine

Killing them is easy too: Just scoop or vacuum them out of their nests and dunk them in a big vat of boiling water. Then they’re dried in the sun like chile peppers.

Perhaps understandably, the cockroach business (“special farming,” as it is euphemistically called) is a fairly secretive industry. Wang’s farm, for instance, operates in an agribusiness industrial park under an elevated highway. The sign at the front gate simply reads Jinan Hualu Feed Co.

Some companies that use cockroaches don’t like to advertise their “secret ingredient.” And the farmers themselves are wary of neighbors who might not like a cockroach farm in their backyard.

“We try to keep a low profile,” said Liu Yusheng, head of the Shandong Insect Industry Assn., the closest thing there is to a trade organization. “The government is tacitly allowing us to do what we do, but if there is too much attention, or if cockroach farms are going into residential areas, there could be trouble.”

Liu worries about the rapid growth of an industry with too many inexperienced players and too little oversight. In 2007, a million Chinese lost $1.2 billion when a firm promoting ant farming turned out to be a Ponzi scheme and went bankrupt.

“This is not like raising regular farm animals or vegetables where the Agricultural Ministry knows who is supposed to regulate it. Nobody knows who is in charge here,” he said.

The low start-up costs make raising cockroaches an appealing business for wannabe entrepreneurs, who can buy cockroach eggs and complete how-to kits from promoters.

“People laughed at me when I started, but I always thought that cockroaches would bring me wealth,” said Zou Hui, 40, who quit her job at a knitting factory in 2008 after seeing a television program about raising cockroaches.

Wang Fuming, at his farm in Jinan, is the largest cockroach producer in China (and thus probably in the world), with six farms populated by an estimated 10 million cockroaches.

It’s not exactly a fortune, but the $10,000 she brings in annually selling cockroaches is decent money for her hometown in rural Sichuan province, and won her an award last year from local government as an “Expert in Getting Wealthy.”

“Now I’m teaching four other families,” Zou said. “They want to get rich like me.”

But inexperienced farmers can get into trouble, as Wang Pengsheng (no relation to fellow roach farmer Wang) found out after his cockroaches staged the Great Escape.

He had opened his farm just six months earlier in a newly constructed building that municipal code officials complained was too close to protected watershed land. At noon on Aug. 20, while workers were out for lunch, a demolition crew knocked down the building. The roaches made a run for it.

“They didn’t know I had cockroaches in there. They wouldn’t have demolished the building like that if there were cockroaches that would get out,” Wang Pengsheng said in a telephone interview.

After discovering the flattened building and homeless roaches scurrying among the rubble, he tried to corral the escapees but was unsuccessful. He called in local health officials, who helped him exterminate the roaches. Wang said he has received about $8,000 in compensation from local government and hopes to use the money to rebuild his farm elsewhere.

At least five pharmaceutical companies are using cockroaches for traditional Chinese medicine. Research is underway in China (and South Korea) on the use of pulverized cockroaches for treating baldness, AIDS and cancer and as a vitamin supplement. South Korea’s Jeonnam Province Agricultural Research Institute and China’s Dali University College of Pharmacy have published papers on the anti-carcinogenic properties of the cockroach.

Li Shunan, a 78-year-old professor of traditional medicine from the southwestern province of Yunnan who is considered the godfather of cockroach research, said he discovered in the 1960s that ethnic minorities near the Vietnamese border were using a cockroach paste to treat bone tuberculosis.

“Cockroaches are survivors,” Li said. “We want to know what makes them so strong — why they can even resist nuclear effects.”

Liu Yusheng, head of the Shandong Insect Industry Assn. eats fried cockroaches. Liu worries about the rapid growth of an industry with too many inexperienced players and too little oversight.

Li reels off an impressive, if implausible, list of health claims: “I lost my hair years ago. I made a spray of cockroaches, applied it on my scalp and it grew back. I’ve used it as a facial mask and people say I haven’t changed at all over the years.

“Cockroaches are very tasty too.”

Many farmers are hoping to boost demand by promoting cockroaches in fish and animal feed and as a delicacy for humans.

Chinese aren’t quite as squeamish as most Westerners about insects — after all, people here still keep crickets as pets.

In Jinan, Wang Fuming and his wife, who run the farm together, seem genuinely fond of their cockroaches and a little hurt that others don’t feel affection.

“What is disgusting about them?” Li Wanrong, Wang’s wife, asked as a roach scurried around her black leather pumps. “Look how beautiful they are. So shiny!”

Over lunch at a restaurant down the block from his farm, Wang placed a plate of fried cockroaches seasoned with salt on the table along with more conventional cuisine, and proceeded to nibble a few with his chopsticks. He expressed disapproval that visiting journalists refused to sample the roaches.

On saying goodbye at the end of the day, he added a final rejoinder.

“You will regret your whole life not trying them.”

Nicole Liu in The Times’ Beijing bureau contributed to this report.


FOR THE RECORD:Wednesday’s Column One story about cockroach farming in China misstated the value of 150 Chinese yuan as $11. It is equal to $24.

O Brasil na contramão (IPS)

Inter Press Service – Reportagens

11/10/2013 – 09h20

por Fabíola Ortiz, da IPS

transito1 O Brasil na contramão

Tráfego na avenida 23 de Maio, em São Paulo. Foto: Photostock/IPS

Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, 11/10/2013 – Nos últimos cinco anos, em plena crise econômica internacional, o Brasil passou a integrar o grupo dos grandes poluidores mundiais, cuja fonte principal de gases-estufa é a queima de combustíveis fósseis. Esse país está assumindo um perfil de contaminação climática próprio do primeiro mundo, segundo o cientista José Marengo, um dos autores do Quinto Informe de Avaliação do Grupo Intergovernamental de Especialistas sobre a Mudança Climática (IPCC), cujo primeiro volume sem editar foi divulgado no dia 30 de setembro.

E isto se deve, em parte, a uma simples razão de fenômeno industrial e de consumo. As isenções de impostos para estimular a venda de automóveis e motocicletas tiveram um efeito positivo no crescimento econômico. Contudo, ao mesmo tempo, criaram um aumento vertiginoso do parque automotivo. A quantidade de automóveis duplicou em uma década, passando de 24,5 milhões em 2001 para 50,2 milhões em 2012, segundo o informe Evolução da Frota de Automóveis e Motos no Brasil – Relatório 2013, divulgado ontem.

As motocicletas tiveram um aumento ainda mais espetacular no mesmo período, passando de 4,5 milhões para 19,9 milhões. O Brasil “terminou 2012 com uma frota total de 76.137.125 veículos automotores. Em 2001, havia aproximadamente 31,8 milhões de unidades. Houve, portanto, aumento de 138,6%”, afirma o documento publicado pelo Observatório das Metrópoles. “Vale recordar que o crescimento populacional do país entre os últimos censos (2000 e 2010) foi de 11,8%”, acrescenta.

“É preocupante, porque sempre criticamos os países desenvolvidos por isso”, observou Marengo, que dirige o Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais. Esse aspecto contrasta com a redução do intenso desmatamento no país, amplamente divulgado pelas autoridades brasileiras.

Em 27 de setembro, quando o IPCC divulgou o Resumo para Responsáveis por Políticas, o secretário de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento do Ministério de Ciência e Tecnologia, Carlos Nobre, dizia à IPS que este país conseguiu reduzir em 38,4% suas emissões de gases-estufa entre 2005 e 2010, devido à redução no desmatamento da Amazônia.

O Brasil se comprometeu em 2009 a reduzir suas emissões de gases-estufa entre 36,1% e 38,9%, segundo dois cenários de crescimento do produto interno bruto. O governo garante que já avançou 62% rumo a essa meta, graças à acentuada redução do desmatamento. Até 2009, o desmatamento era a causa de 60% da contaminação climática do Brasil, enquanto o uso de combustíveis fósseis estava em segundo lugar. Agora emergem novos problemas.

“Se tivéssemos um sistema de transportes de massa confiável e confortável, as pessoas deixaram seus carros em casa. Mas, viajar em certas horas do dia no metrô de São Paulo ou do Rio de Janeiro (duas das maiores cidades do país) é uma humilhação”, disse Marengo à IPS. “Isso precisa mudar, e a única forma é fomentar um transporte público decente”.

Para o diretor de políticas públicas do Greenpeace Brasil, Sergio Leitão, essa mudança de perfil também coincide com a prioridade que se dá a novos empreendimentos, como a prospecção e exploração das jazidas de petróleo do pré-sal, a mais de sete mil metros de profundidade na plataforma submarina. “Estamos começando a exploração do pré-sal e nossas grandes cidades estão abarrotadas de carros”, pontuou Leitão. Enquanto o mundo caminha para novos modelos energéticos, o Brasil segue na contramão, segundo o ativista, tornando impossível que este país seja “amigo do planeta”, afirmou.

O informe do IPCC diz que as mudanças observadas desde 1950 não têm precedentes e demonstram que a ação do homem é uma causa inequívoca do aquecimento global registrado desde meados do século 20. O informe assinala que a humanidade deve fazer todos os esforços para manter o clima do planeta nas coordenadas do cenário mais otimista, com o aquecimento global não superando os dois graus neste século.

Para conseguir isso, segundo Leitão, as “medidas fundamentais, urgentes e inevitáveis” são mudar o modelo de produção e reduzir drasticamente o consumo de petróleo, gás e carvão. “Nos preocupa o fato de no Brasil o pré-sal ser visto como a grande oportunidade econômica do futuro”, afirmou. Na área energética, os grandes volumes de investimentos são destinados a viabilizar a exploração do petróleo no pré-sal, com até US$ 340 milhões até 2020, ressaltou.

Por outro lado, Leitão disse que “seria preciso adotar um rumo diferente, de pesquisas em energias renováveis e limpas. O Brasil se destaca em abundância de sol e vento. É necessário dinamizar essas vertentes e criar substitutos tecnológicos para os combustíveis fósseis”.

Marengo destacou que, se o mundo inteiro deixasse de emitir gases-estufa hoje, seriam necessários 20 anos para frear as transformações climáticas já desatadas. “O IPCC fala de aproximadamente duas décadas, pois foram centenas de anos acumulando dióxido de carbono (CO2). Os processos de fotossíntese nas florestas podem ajudar a absorver CO2, mas isso não é imediato e exige décadas de inércia”, destacou.

As medidas de mitigação – para reduzir a quantidade de gases lançados na atmosfera – são caras e seus efeitos são de longo prazo, mas são as únicas que permitirão minimizar os impactos futuros, acrescentou Marengo, para quem os impactos mais severos começarão a ser sentidos depois de 2040.

Adaptar-se a essas alterações é possível, mas a mensagem que o IPCC pretende dar à próxima cúpula mundial do clima, que se reunirá em novembro em Varsóvia, é que devem tomar medidas para evitar os cenários mais pessimistas, com elevações da temperatura média acima dos dois graus.

Marengo lamentou que a agenda ambiental tenha passado para segundo plano desde que começou a crise econômica e financeira mundial em 2008. “É impossível um país com uma situação econômica ruim aderir a um tratado ambiental, pois este terá um custo social elevado”, enfatizou.

Envolverde/IPS

Terrestrial Ecosystems at Risk of Major Shifts as Temperatures Increase (Science Daily)

Oct. 8, 2013 — Over 80% of the world’s ice-free land is at risk of profound ecosystem transformation by 2100, a new study reveals. “Essentially, we would be leaving the world as we know it,” says Sebastian Ostberg of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany. Ostberg and collaborators studied the critical impacts of climate change on landscapes and have now published their results inEarth System Dynamics, an open access journal of the European Geosciences Union (EGU).

This image shows simulated ecosystem change by 2100, depending on the degree of global temperature increase: 2 degrees Celsius (upper image) or five degrees Celsius (lower image) above preindustrial levels. The parameter “ (Gamma) measures how far apart a future ecosystem under climate change would be from the present state. Blue colours (lower “) depict areas of moderate change, yellow to red areas (higher “) show major change. The maps show the median value of the “ parameter across all climate models, meaning at least half of the models agree on major change in the yellow to red areas, and at least half of the models are below the threshold for major change in the blue areas. (Credit: Ostberg et al., 2013)

The researchers state in the article that “nearly no area of the world is free” from the risk of climate change transforming landscapes substantially, unless mitigation limits warming to around 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.

Ecosystem changes could include boreal forests being transformed into temperate savannas, trees growing in the freezing Arctic tundra or even a dieback of some of the world’s rainforests. Such profound transformations of land ecosystems have the potential to affect food and water security, and hence impact human well-being just like sea level rise and direct damage from extreme weather events.

The new Earth System Dynamics study indicates that up to 86% of the remaining natural land ecosystems worldwide could be at risk of major change in a business-as-usual scenario (see note). This assumes that the global mean temperature will be 4 to 5 degrees warmer at the end of this century than in pre-industrial times — given many countries’ reluctance to commit to binding emissions cuts, such warming is not out of the question by 2100.

“The research shows there is a large difference in the risk of major ecosystem change depending on whether humankind continues with business as usual or if we opt for effective climate change mitigation,” Ostberg points out.

But even if the warming is limited to 2 degrees, some 20% of land ecosystems — particularly those at high altitudes and high latitudes — are at risk of moderate or major transformation, the team reveals.

The researchers studied over 150 climate scenarios, looking at ecosystem changes in nearly 20 different climate models for various degrees of global warming. “Our study is the most comprehensive and internally consistent analysis of the risk of major ecosystem change from climate change at the global scale,” says Wolfgang Lucht, also an author of the study and co-chair of the research domain Earth System Analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

Few previous studies have looked into the global impact of raising temperatures on ecosystems because of how complex and interlinked these systems are. “Comprehensive theories and computer models of such complex systems and their dynamics up to the global scale do not exist.”

To get around this problem, the team measured simultaneous changes in the biogeochemistry of terrestrial vegetation and the relative abundance of different vegetation species. “Any significant change in the underlying biogeochemistry presents an ecological adaptation challenge, fundamentally destabilising our natural systems,” explains Ostberg.

The researchers defined a parameter to measure how far apart a future ecosystem under climate change would be from the present state. The parameter encompasses changes in variables such as the vegetation structure (from trees to grass, for example), the carbon stored in the soils and vegetation, and freshwater availability. “Our indicator of ecosystem change is able to measure the combined effect of changes in many ecosystem processes, instead of looking only at a single process,” says Ostberg.

He hopes the new results can help inform the ongoing negotiations on climate mitigation targets, “as well as planning adaptation to unavoidable change.”

Note

Even though 86% of land ecosystems are at risk if global temperature increases by 5 degrees Celsius by 2100, it is unlikely all these areas will be affected. This would mean that the worst case scenario from each climate model comes true.

Journal Reference:

  1. S. Ostberg, W. Lucht, S. Schaphoff, D. Gerten. Critical impacts of global warming on land ecosystemsEarth System Dynamics, 2013; 4 (2): 347 DOI: 10.5194/esd-4-347-2013

FAO reafirma o impacto devastador da produção de carne para o clima (Terra)

Em 03/10/2013

Amália Safatle

Não, nem todo ambientalista é vegetariano. Mas que reduzir o consumo de carne ajuda – e muito – isso é inegável. Diante das graves constatações divulgadas pelo Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudança Climática (IPCC, na sigla em inglês),  uma das maneiras mais à mão – ou da mão à boca –  para contribuir com a redução de emissões é mexer nas formas de produzir e consumir alimentos, especialmente os de origem animal. Focalizando mais: sobretudo os de origem bovina.

O novo relatório da Organização das Nações Unidas para Alimentação e Agricultura (FAO), intitulado Tackling Climate Change Through Livestock, ou Combatendo as Mudanças Climáticas por Meio da Pecuária, é contundente em reafirmar o efeito devastador da criação de dezenas de bilhões de animais. As palavras são da Human Society Internacional (HSI), organização voltada à proteção animal, que pegou uma carona no relatório da FAO para defender não somente a redução no consumo, mas o tratamento mais ético e digno na produção animal – causa das mais nobres.

No estudo, a FAO expõe que somente a criação de animais responde por 14,5% dos gases de efeito estufa gerados por atividades humanas (acesse em http://www.fao.org/docrep/018/i3437e/i3437e.pdf). De acordo com um estudo de 2012, a pegada hídrica dos produtos de origem animal é seis vezes maior para a carne bovina, e uma vez e meia maior para carne de frango, ovos e laticínios, comparada à pegada dos legumes.

Além disso, a  expansão de pastos para animais de produção é uma das principais causas do desmatamento, especialmente no Brasil. Em todo o mundo, segundo a HSI, utilizamos mais terras para alimentar animais de produção do que para qualquer outro fim. Mais de 97% do farelo de soja e 60% da produção global de cevada e milho são usadas para alimentar animais de produção.

O impacto é tamanho que uma família americana de renda média que deixe de consumir carne vermelha e laticínios e os substitua por produtos de origem vegetal apenas um dia por semana terá, ao final de um ano, reduzido suas emissões anuais gases-estufa em volume equivalente ao emitido ao dirigir 1.600 quilômetros.

A partir de cálculos como esse surgiu a campanha Segunda Sem Carne, que propõe às pessoas evitar carne vermelha ao menos uma vez por semana.

É uma tentativa de refrear o aumento da demanda: de 1980 e 2005, o consumo deper capita de carnes no Brasil praticamente dobrou, alcançando níveis similares ao de países desenvolvidos, segundo a FAO. O consumo de laticínios e ovos também cresceu significativamente, em 40% e 20%, respectivamente.

Mas reduzir consumo não é a única alternativa. Para os carnívoros inveterados, o novo relatório da FAO mostra como a produção de carnes pode diminuir seus impactos e emissões se adotar novas tecnologias, técnicas mais avançadas de manejo e elevar a produtividade. Mais que isso, apresenta propostas para formuladores de políticas públicas.

O relatório ainda aponta que programas com objetivo de reduzir as emissões do setor devem também levar em consideração o bem-estar animal. Além de se submeter a regras mais rígidas para um tratamento humanitário dos animais no lado da oferta, na ponta da demanda o consumidor pode dar preferência a produtos que tenham padrões de bem-estar animal mais elevados.

“No Brasil, cerca de 90% da produção de ovos é proveniente do sistema de gaiolas em bateria convencional, tão intensivo que os animais praticamente não podem se mover. Na indústria suína, a maioria das porcas reprodutoras passam praticamente suas vidas inteiras em celas de gestação, que têm praticamente o mesmo tamanho do corpo dos animais e não permitem que as porcas sequer se virem dentro delas ou deem mais do que um passo para frente ou para trás”, informa a HSI.

Segundo a organização, o confinamento de poedeiras nas gaiolas em bateria convencional e o confinamento contínuo de porcas reprodutoras em celas de gestação já foram proibidos em toda a União Europeia e em vários estados dos EUA. Líderes de mercado como McDonald’s, Burger King, Wendy’s e Costco anunciaram que eliminarão o uso de celas de gestação em suas cadeias de fornecimento nos EUA.

Resta saber por que essas redes têm políticas diferenciadas nos países em que atuam, em vez de enfrentar o assunto de forma global, partindo do simples respeito à vida, seja ela qual for.

Native Tribes’ Traditional Knowledge Can Help US Adapt to Climate Change (Science Daily)

Oct. 3, 2013 — New England’s Native tribes, whose sustainable ways of farming, forestry, hunting and land and water management were devastated by European colonists four centuries ago, can help modern America adapt to climate change.

That’s the conclusion of more than 50 researchers at Dartmouth and elsewhere in a special issue of the journal Climatic Change. It is the first time a peer-reviewed journal has focused exclusively on climate change’s impacts on U.S. tribes and how they are responding to the changing environments. Dartmouth also will host an Indigenous Peoples Climate Change Working Group meeting Nov. 4- 5.

The special issue, which includes 13 articles, concludes that tribes’ traditional ecological knowledge can play a key role in developing scientific solutions to adapt to the impacts. “The partnerships between tribal peoples and their non-tribal research allies give us a model for responsible and respectful international collaboration,” the authors say.

Dartmouth assistant professors Nicholas Reo and Angela Parker, whose article is titled “Re-thinking colonialism to prepare for the impacts of rapid environmental change,” said New England settlers created a cascade of environmental and human changes that spread across North America, including human diseases, invasive species, deforestation and overharvest.

The researchers identified social and ecological tipping points and feedback loops that amplify and mitigate environmental change. For example, prior to the arrival of Europeans, old growth deciduous forests were rich with animal and plant resources and covered more than 80 percent of New England. Native peoples helped to sustain this bountiful biodiversity for centuries through their land practices.

“But when indigenous communities were decimated by disease and eventually alienated from their known environments, land tenure innovations based on deep, local ecological knowledge, disappeared,” the researchers say. “Colonists, and their extractive systems aimed at key animal and plant species, became the new shapers of cultural landscapes. Rapid ecological degradation subsequently ensued, and New Englanders created a difficult project of stewarding a far less resilient landscape without help from indigenous land managers who would have known best how to enact ecological restoration measures.”

Today’s tribal members who work with natural resources, such as fisherman, farmers and land managers, can play key roles in devising local and regional strategies to adapt to climate change, the researchers say.

Journal Reference:

  1. Nicholas James Reo, Angela K. Parker. Re-thinking colonialism to prepare for the impacts of rapid environmental changeClimatic Change, 2013; DOI:10.1007/s10584-013-0783-7

Climate sceptics claim warming pause backs their view (BBC)

26 September 2013 Last updated at 00:47 GMT

By Matt McGrathEnvironment correspondent, BBC News, The Netherlands

Hurricane SandyCome hell or… An increased likelihood of extreme weather events is one predicted outcome of global warming, but some dispute the scale of expected effects

In the run up to a key global warming report, those sceptical of mainstream opinion on climate change claim they are “winning” the argument.

They say a slowing of temperature rises in the past 15 years means the threat from climate change is exaggerated.

But a leading member of the UN’s panel on climate change said the views of sceptics were “wishful thinking”.

Some of what the sceptics are saying is either wishful thinking or totally dishonest”

Prof Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, IPCC

The pause in warming was a distraction, he said, from the growing scientific certainty about long-term impacts.

Prof Jean Pascal van Ypersele spoke to BBC News ahead of the release of a six-yearly status report into global warming by the UN panel known as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC.

Scientists and government representatives are currently meeting in Stockholm, Sweden, going through the dense, 31-page summary of the state of the physical science behind climate change.

When it is released on Friday, the report is likely to state with even greater certainty than before that the present-day, rapid warming of the planet is man-made.

Netherlands flood rescue simulationClimate change could profoundly impact the Netherlands, but sceptics remain influential there

But climate sceptics have focused their attention on the references to a pause or hiatus in the increase in global temperatures since 1998.

The sceptics believe that this slowdown is the most solid evidence yet that mainstream computer simulations of the Earth’s climate – climate models – are wrong.

These computer simulations are used to study the dynamics of the Earth’s climate and make projections about future temperature change.

“The sceptics now have a feeling of being on the winning side of the debate thanks to the pause,” said Marcel Crok, a Dutch author who accepts the idea that human activities warm the planet, but is sceptical about the scale of the effect.

“You are now starting to see a normalisation of climate science. Suddenly mainstream researchers, who all agree that greenhouse gases play a huge role, start to disagree about the cause of the pause.

“For me this is a relief, it is finally opening up again and this is good.”

The view that the sceptics have positively impacted the IPCC is supported by Prof Arthur Petersen, who is a member of the Dutch government team currently examining the report.

“The sceptics are good for the IPCC and the whole process is really flourishing because of this interaction over the past decades,” he told BBC News.

“Our best climate researchers are typically very close to really solid, sceptical scientists. In this sense scepticism is not necessarily a negative term.”

Others disagree.

Bart Verheggen is an atmospheric scientist and blogger who supports the mainstream view of global warming. He said that sceptics have discouraged an open scientific debate.

Crok

Dutch writer Marcel Crok is sceptical about the sensitivity of the atmosphere to carbon emissions

“When scientists start to notice that their science is being distorted in public by these people who say they are the champions of the scientific method, that could make mainstream researchers more defensive.

“Scientists probably think twice now about writing things down. They probably think twice about how this could be twisted by contrarians.”

Sensitive debate

In 2007, the IPCC defined the range for what’s termed “equilibrium climate sensitivity”. This term refers to the likely span of temperatures that would occur following a doubling of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere.

The panel’s last report said temperatures were likely to rise within the range of 2C to 4.5C with a best estimate of 3C.

The new report is believed to indicate a range of 1.5C to 4.5C with no best estimate indicated.

Although that might not appear like much of a change, many sceptics believe it exposes a critical flaw.

“In the last year, we have seen several studies showing that climate sensitivity is actually much less than we thought for the last 30 years,” said Marcel Crok.

“And these studies indicate that our real climate shows a sensitivity of between 1.5C and 2C, but the climate models on which these future doom scenarios are based warm up three degrees under a doubling of CO2.”

But other researchers who are familiar with the text believe that the sceptics are reading too much into a single figure.

“Some of what the sceptics are saying is either wishful thinking or totally dishonest,” Prof van Ypersele, who is vice-chair of the IPCC, told BBC News.

“It is just a change in a lower border [of the range of temperature rise]. Even if this turns out to be the real sensitivity, instead of making the challenge extremely, extremely, extremely difficult to meet, it is only making it extremely, extremely difficult.

“Is that such a big change?”

Prof van Ypersele points out that many other aspects of the forthcoming report are likely to give greater certainty to the scale of impacts of a warming world. The predictions for sea level rise are likely to be considerably strengthened from 2007. There is also likely to be a clearer understanding of the state of sea ice.

Who are the climate sceptics?

Although there are only a small number of mainstream scientists who reject the established view on global warming, they are supported by a larger group of well resourced bloggers and citizen scientists who pore through climate literature and data looking for evidence of flaws in the hypothesis.

There are many different shades of opinion in the sceptical orbit. Some such as the group Principia Scientific reject the “myth” of greenhouse gas warming.

There are also political sceptics, such as some members of the Republican party in the US, who argue that climate science is a hoax or a conspiracy.

But there are also sceptical bloggers such as Anthony Watts and Andrew Montford who accept the basic science that adding carbon to the atmosphere can affect the temperature. They contest mainstream findings on the sensitivity of the climate to carbon and the future impacts on temperature.

The Dutch approach to sceptics

With around 20% of the country under sea level, the Dutch have a keen interest in anything that might affect their environment, such as climate change.

But scepticism about the human influence on global warming has been growing in the Netherlands, according to research from the OECD.

In a country where consensus is a key word, the government has taken a more inclusive approach to climate dissenters. To that end, they have funded Marcel Crok to carry out a sceptical analysis of the IPCC report.

In an effort to build bridges between sceptics and the mainstream they are also funding an initiative called climatedialogue.org which serves as a platform for debate on the science of global warming.

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IPCC climate report: humans ‘dominant cause’ of warming – and other articles (BBC)

27 September 2013 Last updated at 09:12 GMT

By Matt McGrathEnvironment correspondent, BBC News, Stockholm

Climate change “threatens our planet, our only home”, warns Thomas Stocker, IPCC co-chair

A landmark report says scientists are 95% certain that humans are the “dominant cause” of global warming since the 1950s.

The report by the UN’s climate panel details the physical evidence behind climate change.

On the ground, in the air, in the oceans, global warming is “unequivocal”, it explained.

It adds that a pause in warming over the past 15 years is too short to reflect long-term trends.

The panel warns that continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all aspects of the climate system.

To contain these changes will require “substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions”.

Infographic

Projections are based on assumptions about how much greenhouse gases might be released

After a week of intense negotiations in the Swedish capital, the summary for policymakers on the physical science of global warming has finally been released.

The first part of an IPCC trilogy, due over the next 12 months, this dense, 36-page document is considered the most comprehensive statement on our understanding of the mechanics of a warming planet.

It states baldly that, since the 1950s, many of the observed changes in the climate system are “unprecedented over decades to millennia”.

Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface, and warmer than any period since 1850, and probably warmer than any time in the past 1,400 years.

“Our assessment of the science finds that the atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amount of snow and ice has diminished, the global mean sea level has risen and that concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased,” said Qin Dahe, co-chair of IPCC working group one, who produced the report.

Speaking at a news conference in the Swedish capital, Prof Thomas Stocker, another co-chair, said that climate change “challenges the two primary resources of humans and ecosystems, land and water. In short, it threatens our planet, our only home”.

Since 1950, the report’s authors say, humanity is clearly responsible for more than half of the observed increase in temperatures.

Dr Rajendra Pachauri said he was confident the report would convince the public on global climate change

But a so-called pause in the increase in temperatures in the period since 1998 is downplayed in the report. The scientists point out that this period began with a very hot El Nino year.

“Trends based on short records are very sensitive to the beginning and end dates and do not in general reflect long-term climate trends,” the report says.

Prof Stocker, added: “I’m afraid there is not a lot of public literature that allows us to delve deeper at the required depth of this emerging scientific question.

“For example, there are not sufficient observations of the uptake of heat, particularly into the deep ocean, that would be one of the possible mechanisms to explain this warming hiatus.”

“Likewise we have insufficient data to adequately assess the forcing over the last 10-15 years to establish a relationship between the causes of the warming.”

However, the report does alter a key figure from the 2007 study. The temperature range given for a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere, called equilibrium climate sensitivity, was 2.0C to 4.5C in that report.

In the latest document, the range has been changed to 1.5C to 4.5C. The scientists say this reflects improved understanding, better temperature records and new estimates for the factors driving up temperatures.

In the summary for policymakers, the scientists say that sea level rise will proceed at a faster rate than we have experienced over the past 40 years. Waters are expected to rise, the document says, by between 26cm (at the low end) and 82cm (at the high end), depending on the greenhouse emissions path this century.

The scientists say ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for 90% of energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010.

For the future, the report states that warming is projected to continue under all scenarios. Model simulations indicate that global surface temperature change by the end of the 21st Century is likely to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius, relative to 1850.

Prof Sir Brian Hoskins, from Imperial College London, told BBC News: “We are performing a very dangerous experiment with our planet, and I don’t want my grandchildren to suffer the consequences of that experiment.”

What is the IPCC?

In its own words, the IPCC is there “to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts”.

The offspring of two UN bodies, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, it has issued four heavyweight assessment reports to date on the state of the climate.

These are commissioned by the governments of 195 countries, essentially the entire world. These reports are critical in informing the climate policies adopted by these governments.

The IPCC itself is a small organisation, run from Geneva with a full time staff of 12. All the scientists who are involved with it do so on a voluntary basis.

Document

PDF download IPCC Summary for Policymakers

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O dióxido de carbono está reconfigurando o planeta (IPS)

Ambiente

30/9/2013 – 08h08

por Stephen Leahy, da IPS

stephen6401 O dióxido de carbono está reconfigurando o planeta

O derretimento da geleira de Orizaba, no México, é outra consequência do aquecimento global. Foto: Maurício Ramos/IPS

Nantes, França, 30/9/2013 – A Groenlândia pode acabar se tornando verde, pois a maior parte de sua enorme camada de gelo está condenada a derreter, informou, no dia 27, o Grupo Intergovernamental de Especialistas sobre Mudança Climática (IPCC). O resumo de 36 páginas apresentado em Estocolmo pelo IPCC, que funciona na órbita da Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU), inclui um alerta de que há 20% de possibilidades de os gelos da Groenlândia iniciarem um derretimento irreversível com apenas 0,2 grau de aquecimento adicional.

Essa quantidade de aquecimento agregado é uma certeza agora. Contudo, o derretimento definitivo do gelo na Groenlândia consumirá mil anos. “O novo informe é outro chamado para despertar, que nos diz que estamos com grandes problemas e vamos rumo a graus perigosos de mudança climática”, destacou David Cadman, presidente da Iclei, a única rede de cidades sustentáveis que opera em todo o mundo e envolve 1.200 governos locais.

“O IPCC será atacado por interesses (da indústria dos combustíveis fósseis e seus defensores. Eles tentarão assustar o público, alegando que tomar medidas coloca em risco os empregos e a economia. Isso não é verdade. Pelo contrário”, afirmou Cadman à IPS. O Resumo para Responsáveis por Políticas do Informe do Grupo de Trabalho I – Bases de Ciência Física estabelece claramente que os seres humanos estão esquentando o planeta, e confirma estudos que datam de 1997. Desde os anos 1950, cada década foi mais quente do que a anterior, diz o documento.

O texto completo será divulgado hoje e é o primeiro dos quatro volumes (os dos três grupos de trabalho mais a síntese) do Quinto Informe de Avaliação do IPCC, conhecido como AR5. No Hemisfério Norte, “as temperaturas entre 1983 e 2012 foram as mais quentes dos últimos 1.400 anos”, destacou Thomas Stocker, copresidente do Grupo de Trabalho I.

Em resposta às notícias dos últimos dias, falando sobre uma “interrupção do aquecimento”, Stocker disse que o sistema climático é dinâmico, sendo provável que nos últimos anos tenha ingressado mais calor nos oceanos e que tenha diminuído ligeiramente o ritmo dos aumentos das temperaturas superficiais. Há mais de cem anos pesquisadores demonstraram que o dióxido de carbono prende o calor do Sol.

A queima de combustíveis fósseis, o desmatamento, a agricultura e outras atividades humanas emitem esse gás na atmosfera, onde permanece quase para sempre. Os maiores volumes de dióxido de carbono, por sua vez, acrescentam mais calor, pois atuam como outra camada de isolamento. Mais de 90% desta energia térmica adicional é absorvida pelos oceanos, segundo o Resumo. Isso explica a causa de as temperaturas da superfície ainda não terem superado o aumento médio mundial de 0,8 grau.

O Resumo destaca que a redução da camada de gelo do Ártico nas últimas três décadas foi a maior dos últimos 1.450 anos. Embora o derretimento no último verão boreal tenha sido menor que no ano passado, o Ártico segue no caminho de ficar sem gelo na temporada estival de 2050, bem antes do projetado por relatórios anteriores.

O informe do IPCC, uma revisão das pesquisas científicas disponíveis, se baseou em trabalhos de 259 autores de 39 países, e contou com 54.677 comentários. O informe de avaliação anterior, ou AR4, é de 2007. O IPCC não realiza pesquisas próprias e está sob a direção de 110 governos que passaram os últimos quatro dias aprovando o texto do sumário. “Cada palavra contida nas 36 páginas foi debatida. Alguns parágrafos foram discutidos por mais de uma hora”, contou Stocker em entrevista coletiva em Estocolmo. “Nenhum outro relatório científico jamais passou por um escrutínio tão crítico”, ressaltou.

O Resumo, redigido com cautela, detalha e confirma os impactos observados, com o aumento das temperaturas, as mudanças nos padrões pluviométricos e os extremos climáticos. Também confirma que estes e outros impactos vão piorar na medida em que aumentarem as emissões de dióxido de carbono. As atuais emissões deste gás estão no rumo do pior cenário.

O resumo do AR5 diz que a camada gelada da Groenlândia perdeu, em média, 177 bilhões de toneladas de gelo por ano entre 1992 e 2001. Estudos mais recentes demonstram que o gelo perdido aumentou substancialmente desde então. Segundo o relatório, há uma possibilidade em cinco de a camada gelada da Groenlândia derreter totalmente se as temperaturas globais aumentarem entre 0,8 grau e mais de um, como parece inevitável agora.

Um dos motivos é que a elevação das temperaturas no Ártico é quase três vezes maior do que o aumento médio mundial. Se a temperatura média mundial aumentar cerca de quatro graus será desencadeado um derretimento na Groenlândia, que elevaria o nível do mar em até sete metros. Apesar disto, o AR5 diz que não se espera que o nível do mar suba mais de um metro neste século.

Outros cientistas, entre eles James Hansen, ex-diretor do Instituto Goddar de Estudos Espaciais da Nasa (agência espacial dos Estados Unidos), acreditam que o acelerado derretimento observado no Ártico, na Groenlândia, na Antártida e nas geleiras é um sinal de que neste século o mar pode subir vários metros, a menos que as emissões sejam reduzidas.

Mesmo antes de se tornar público o novo informe do IPCC, “os que negam a mudança climática” o atacaram e tergiversaram, tentando retratar suas conclusões como radicais ou extremistas, afirmou Charles Greene, professor de ciências atmosféricas e da terra na Cornell University, de Nova York. Greene se referia a um orquestrado esforço de propaganda de atores da indústria dos combustíveis fósseis e de organizações que tentam convencer o público de que o aquecimento global não é um assunto de extrema urgência. “Na verdade, o IPCC tem um longo histórico de subestimar os impactos” da mudança climática, afirmou Greene.

Embora a ação mundial contra o aquecimento esteja em ponto morto, algumas cidades já estão reduzindo suas emissões de carbono. Os membros do Iclei se comprometeram com uma redução de 20% até 2020 e de 80% até 2050. A maioria dos governos não está tomando iniciativas, o que revela claramente o poder e a influência do setor dos combustíveis fósseis, pontuou Cadman. “As cidades podem fazer até dez vezes mais, mas, simplesmente, não têm dinheiro”, ressaltou.

Envolverde/IPS

IPCC sustenta que aquecimento global é inequívoco (IPS)

Ambiente

30/9/2013 – 08h01

por Fabíola Ortiz, da IPS

IPCC1 IPCC sustenta que aquecimento global é inequívoco

A elevação do nível do mar pode alagar várias regiões do Recife, no Nordeste do Brasil. Foto: Alejandro Arigón/IPS

Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, 30/9/2013 – Em meio a rumores de que o aquecimento global se deteve nos últimos 15 anos, o novo informe do Grupo Internacional de Especialistas sobre a Mudança Climática (IPCC) indica que as três últimas décadas foram, sucessivamente, mais quentes do que qualquer outra desde 1850. O Resumo para Responsáveis por Políticas do informe do Grupo de Trabalho I – Bases de Ciência Física, foi divulgado no dia 27, em Estocolmo, na Suécia.

O texto completo, sem edições, será conhecido hoje e constitui o primeiro dos quatro volumes do Quinto Informe de Avaliação do IPCC. O aquecimento é “inequívoco”, afirma o IPCC. “A atmosfera e o oceano esquentam, a quantidade de neve e gelo diminui, o nível do mar sobe e as concentrações de gases-estufa aumentam”, destaca o estudo.

Para o especialista brasileiro em clima, Carlos Nobre, um dos autores principais do Quarto Informe de Avaliação, o novo relatório não dá “nenhuma razão para o otimismo. Cada uma das três últimas décadas foi sucessivamente mais quente do que qualquer outra desde 1850. No Hemisfério Norte, o período 1983-2012 representa, provavelmente, os 30 anos mais quentes dos últimos 1.400”, diz o novo resumo. Os dados “das temperaturas médias terrestres e da superfície do oceano, calculados como uma tendência linear, mostram um aquecimento de 0,85 grau no período 1880-2012”, acrescentou Nobre

A respeito da suposta pausa no aumento do calor, o IPCC afirma que “a taxa de aquecimento dos últimos 15 anos (1998-2012) – que foi de 0,05 grau por década e que começou com um potente El Niño (fase quente da Oscilação do Sul) – é menor do que a calculada entre 1951 e 2012, que foi de 0,12 grau por década”.

Entretanto, argumenta, “devido à variabilidade natural, as tendências baseadas em registros de períodos curtos são muito sensíveis às datas de começo e final, e não refletem, em geral, as tendências climáticas de longo prazo”. Resumindo, diz o documento, “é virtualmente certo (99% a 100% de certeza) que a troposfera esquenta desde meados do século 20”.

Nobre indicou à IPS que “o resumo observa com mais detalhe o que está mudando e reduz as incertezas com um conhecimento científico aperfeiçoado”. Além disso, confirma que as alterações do clima se originam principalmente nas ações humanas, destacou Nobre, secretário de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento do Ministério de Ciência e Tecnologia.

A humanidade deverá se decidir a deixar grande parte dos combustíveis fósseis – responsáveis pela emissão de gases que esquentam a atmosfera – e passar para outras formas de energia renovável, advertiu Nobre. Tecnicamente, é possível, falta uma opção consciente de todos os países, ressaltou. “Essa transição tem um custo, mas que é cada vez menor do que o estimado há 15 anos. O problema não é a tecnologia, mas a decisão política”, acrescentou.

Para Carlos Rittl, coordenador do programa de mudanças climáticas e energia do WWF-Brasil (Fundo Mundial para a Natureza), “embora o aquecimento tenha apresentado uma aparente estabilização quanto à temperatura média, os anos mais quentes foram registrados na última década. Isso não nos deixa em uma situação de conforto”.

O informe do IPCC, uma revisão das pesquisas científicas disponíveis, se baseou em trabalhos de 259 autores de 39 países, e contou com 54.677 comentários. Sua divulgação veio permeada de uma renovada onda mediática de dúvidas e rumores sobre a existência do aquecimento global.

Com base em diferentes trajetórias de emissão de gases-estufa, o resumo projeta para este final de século uma elevação da temperatura superior a 1,5 grau em relação ao período 1850-1900 em todos os cenários, menos no de menor concentração de gases. Também afirma que, provavelmente, o aumento exceda os dois graus até 2100 nos dois cenários de maior emissão de gases. O informe anterior, de 2007, previa aumento de dois graus, no melhor dos casos, e de até seis, no pior.

Após o fracasso da conferência intergovernamental de Copenhague, em dezembro de 2009, quando os países não conseguiram obter um acordo para reduzir a contaminação climática, foram redobrados os questionamentos ao IPCC, em particular por uma errônea estimativa do derretimento das geleiras do Himalaia. A informação “foi usada de forma irresponsável por quem nega o aquecimento global”, alertou Rittl.

Seis anos depois, há mais e melhores evidências científicas para estimar, por exemplo, quanto o derretimento de gelos contribui para a elevação do nível do mar. Até o final de 2100 a elevação média do mar oscilará entre 24 centímetros e 63 centímetros, segundo o melhor e o pior cenários de contaminação atmosférica. As chuvas “aumentarão nas regiões mais úmidas e diminuirão naquelas onde há escassez pluviométrica”, detalhou Rittl, que é doutor em ecologia.

No Brasil os exemplos são a árida região do Nordeste e as mais úmidas do Sul e Sudeste. A incidência de chuvas crescerá entre 1% e 3% em zonas do sul, segundo a velocidade do aquecimento, enquanto as áridas apresentarão padrões de seca mais severos. Todas as tendências confirmadas pelo informe são “alarmantes”, apontou Rittl. “Nós, humanos, somos responsáveis por essas mudanças, que vão piorar o cenário atual em que já há centenas de milhões de pessoas sofrendo escassez de água, de comida e de condições adequadas para sobreviver”, ressaltou.

O primeiro volume do Quinto Informe de Avaliação do IPCC é divulgado dois meses antes de acontecer em Varsóvia, na Polônia, a 19ª Conferência das Partes da Convenção das Nações Unidas sobre Mudança Climática. Nesse encontro deverá ser feito um esforço mundial para garantir a transição para uma economia baixa em dióxido de carbono, disse Nobre. “Este informe é um choque de realidade”, ressaltou.

Em sua opinião, o Brasil é um dos “poucos bons exemplos”, pois conseguiu reduzir em 38,4% suas emissões de gases-estufa entre 2005 e 2010, devido à queda no desmatamento da Amazônia. “O Brasil adotou compromissos voluntários, mas no global não há um acordo ambicioso”, explicou Nobre. Quanto mais tempo se demorar em “adotar ações concretas, mais difícil e improvável será conseguir uma trajetória sustentável de acomodação e adaptação à mudança climática”, enfatizou.

Rittl acredita que os governos devem enfrentar a mudança climática como um desafio nacional para o desenvolvimento, a inclusão social e a redução da pobreza. “É necessário lidar com os riscos e as oportunidades com muita responsabilidade”, concluiu.

Envolverde/IPS

Ahead of IPCC report, fossil-fuel groups organize climate denial campaign (Grist)

By , 20 Sep 2013 11:38 AM

tiny man, huge megaphone
Shutterstock
If only they would shut up.

Watch out: A tsunami of stupidity is due to crash over the world next Friday.

That’s when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will release a summary of its big new climate assessment report, the first since 2007. But that’s not the stupid part.

A global campaign funded by fossil-fuel interests has been steadily building to discredit the report. That’s where the stupidity comes in. From The Guardian:

Organisations that dismiss the science behind climate change and oppose curbs on greenhouse gas pollution have made a big push to cloud the release of the IPCC report, the result of six years of work by hundreds of scientists.

Those efforts this week extended to promoting the fiction of a recovery in the decline of Arctic sea ice.

The IPCC assessments, produced every six or seven years, are seen as the definitive report on climate change, incorporating the key findings from some 9,000 articles published in scientific journals.

Climate deniers are pushing their messages out through blogs as well as old-fashioned outlets like the Daily MailFrom Skeptical Science:

Like the way a picnic on a sunny afternoon in August tends to attract lots of annoying wasps, major events on the climate change timeline tend to see certain contrarian figures and organisations dialling up the rhetorical output.

This is frustrating yet it has over the years become quite predictable: arguing with some climate change contrarians is similar to attempting debate with a well-trained parrot. Imagine: the parrot has memorised some twenty statements that it can squawk out at random. Thus it will follow up on ‘no warming since 1997′ with ‘in the 1970s they said there’d be an ice-age’ and so on. Another piece in the UK-based Daily Mail’s Sunday edition of September 8th 2013, written by a figure familiar to Skeptical Science readers, Mail and Vanity Fair journalist David Rose, gives a classic example of such parroting. There’s another in the UK’s Daily Telegraph along remarkably similar lines (it could even be the same parrot).

Meanwhile, the Koch-funded Heartland Institute has already published a compilation of lies in its own preemptive report. Its “experts” are so desperate to get their climate-denying messages out that they would probably turn up at your kid’s birthday party if you asked them nicely enough.

The news here is predictable but not terrible. Scientists and activists are doing better jobs of organizing communication strategies in the face of anti-science blather. From Inside Climate News:

Dozens of prominent scientists involved with drafting IPCC reports formed a Climate Science Rapid Response Team that punches back against misleading claims about climate research.

Kevin Trenberth is part of that team as well as a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and an author and editor on the forthcoming IPCC report. He explained that nearly every time there is a scientific paper linking man-made carbon dioxide emissions to climate change, the “denial-sphere” immediately responds with accusations that the research is wrong.

“The scientists get nasty emails. Certain websites comment. … So a bunch of us formed this rapid response team to deflate these arguments.” The group has been very busy in recent weeks.

Although those who make a living by denying climate science are screaming as loudly as ever, most people are getting better at tuning out their histrionics. Again from the Inside Climate News article:

Cindy Baxter, a longtime climate campaigner, said she thinks climate skeptics “are getting more shrill, but getting less notice,” because Americans are more convinced that global warming is real.

“Hurricane Sandy. Droughts. Flooding. Wildfires. People are feeling the effects of climate change. That makes it harder to deny,” said Baxter, who is also a co-author of Greenpeace’s new report Dealing in Doubt, which chronicles the history of climate skeptic campaigns. Polls say a larger majority of Americans from both parties see recent waves of deadly weather as a sign of climate change.

Unfortunately, this denier campaign will be around for a while. The IPCC report due out next Friday is just the first of four scheduled to be released over the coming year. Maybe after the final one comes out, the denial pushers will finally potter off to find new work, perhaps as baby-seal clubbers, orphan poisoners, or textbook reviewers for the Texas State Board of Education.

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

Sociological explanations for climate change denial (resilience.org)

by Olga Bonfiglio, originally published by Energy Bulletin  | MAR 17, 2012

Talk about climate change seems to be a taboo subject in America today.

Three years ago promises by both major political parties to do something have gone by the wayside while today’sRepublican presidential candidates reject evidence that humans are responsible for the warming of the earth

The mainstream media routinely report on extreme weather, like this winter’s high temperatures and last summer’s droughts, but reporters and commentators typically veer away from connecting it to climate change.

Last October, the New York Times reported that those who believed the Earth was warming dropped from 79 percent in 2006 to 59 percent.  However, a month laterpolling experts blamed this decline on a collapse in media coverage and pollsters’ deeply flawed questions.

It turns out that the United States is one of the few countries in the world still quibbling over climate change, and its influence is stymieing progress at environmental summits like Durbin (2011), Cancun (2010), and Copenhagen (2009).

What’s going on?

As you may expect, it’s about money, politics, culture and media bias.

Ron Kramer, a sociologist at Western Michigan University, has been studying how sociological and cultural factors are preventing Americans from talking about or acting on climate change.  He drew on the research of sociologist Stanley Cohen, professor emeritus at the London School of Economics, who says that denial “refers to the maintenance of social worlds in which an undesirable situation (event, condition, phenomenon) is unrecognized, ignored or made to seem normal.”

He cites three categories of denial:

  • literal denial is: “the assertion that something did not happen or is not true.”
  • With an interpretive denial, the basic facts are not denied, however, “…they are given a different meaning from what seems apparent to others.” People recognize that something is happening but that it’s good for us.
  • Implicatory denial “covers the multitude of vocabularies, justifications, rationalizations, evasions that we use to deal with our awareness of so many images of unmitigated suffering.” Here, “knowledge itself is not an issue. The genuine challenge is doing the ‘right’ thing with this knowledge.”

Through literal and interpretive denial, climate change deniers declare that the earth is not warming even though 98 percent of our scientists have written thousands of peer-reviewed papers and reports concluding that climate change is real and caused by human activity.

Actually, deniers are organized by conservative think tanks funded by the fossil fuel industry that attempt to create doubt about climate science and block actions that would reduce greenhouse gas emissions and create clean energy alternatives.

To do this they use conspiracy theories and “fake” experts with no background in climate science.  They insist on absolute certainty, cherry-pick the data and ignore the larger body of evidence or misrepresent data and promote logical fallacies like “the climate has changed in the past, therefore current change is natural.”

“Creating doubt blocks any action,” said Kramer.  “This is the same tactic the tobacco industry used to deny that smoking was harmful to people’s health. And, some of the same people are now doing this with climate change.”

The “conservative climate change denial counter-movement,” as Kramer calls it, was led by the George W. Bush administration and congressional Republicans who obstruct and manipulate the political system to promote their view.  They are complemented by right-wing media outlets such as Fox News and Rush Limbaugh.  The mainstream media’s “balancing norm” practice then allows the denialists to be placed on par with the climate scientists.

The rationale behind this counter-movement is that corporations make money if Americans continue their materialistic attitudes and practices so they lobby politicians to protect their interests and they fund think tanks that accuse “eco-scientists” of destroying capitalism, as revealed by the New YorkTimes.

Corporations provide research monies to university scientists, who rely on them as support from state legislatures and benefactors dwindles.  They advance narratives that people from other parts of the world are worse off than Americans, so we don’t have to change.  They make claims to virtue on TV ads about all they are doing for the environment (a.k.a. “greenwashing”).  And, they argue that doing something about global warming will cost too much and cause them to lose their competitive edge.

Research shows that conservative white males are more likely to espouse climate change denial than other groups for two reasons.  They tend to filter out any information that is different from their already-held worldview because it threatens the identity, status and esteem they receive by being part of their group, he said.  Sociologists call this “Identity Protective Cognition.”

Secondly, conservative white males have a stronger need to justify the status quo and resist attempts to change it.  Sociologists call this “System Justification.”

For example, successful conservative white males stridently defend the capitalist system because it has worked well for them. For anyone to imply the system is not functioning is an unfathomable impossibility akin to blasphemy. [Climatewire via Scientific American]

“Identity Protective Cognition” should also inform environmental activists that the information deficit model of activism is not always a good approach, warned Kramer.  Just providing more information may not change anyone’s views given their commitment to a particular cultural worldview.

In implicatory denial people recognize that something untoward is happening but they fail to act because they are emotionally uncomfortable or troubled about it.

For example, there are the people who are aware of climate change and have some information about it, but take no action, make no behavioral changes and remain apathetic.

This response occurs when people confront confusing and conflicting information from political leaders and the media.  Consequently, they have yet another reason for denial—or they believe the problem can be overcome with technology and they can go on with their lives.

“At some level people understand that climate change can alter human civilization, but they feel a sense of helplessness and powerlessness at the prospect,” said Kramer.  “Others feel guilty that they may have caused the problem.”

Several cultural factors also thwart any decisive action on climate change, said Kramer.

Americans have a tendency toward “anti-intellectualism,” so “nerdy” climate scientists are easily suspect.

Our strong sense of “individualism” helps us strive toward our individual goals, but it likewise keeps us from joining together to do something about climate change.  They ask:  “What good does it do to recycle or drive less when we have such a huge, complex problem as climate change?”

“American exceptionalism” celebrates the American way of life, which has given us a vast bounty of wealth and material goods.  We want to continue this life and, in fact, deserve it.  Nothing bad will happen to us.

Finally, “political alienation” keeps us from trusting our political system to tackle the problem.

“What we ultimately need is international agreement about what to do about climate change,” said Kramer.  “Nothing will happen, however, until the United States commits to doing something.”

What to do about climate change?

Kramer believes we should regard climate change as a matter of social justice and not just science because the people most affected by it are not the ones who created it.

North American and European lifestyles, which are based on easy and cheap access to fossil fuels for energy, agriculture and consumer products have inadvertently caused much suffering, poverty and environmental degradation to the people of the Global South.

To illustrate, analysts at Maplecroft have produced a map that measures of the risk of climate change impacts and the social and financial ability of communities and governments to cope with it.  The most vulnerable nations are Haiti, Bangladesh and Zimbabwe.

Second, Kramer emphasized the moral obligation we have to future generations and other species.  Simply put, we must reduce our use of fossil fuels that are largely responsible for emitting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and causing extreme weather conditions like hurricanes, floods, drought, tsunami, earthquakes, heat waves, warm winters and melting polar ice caps.

Again, people’s lives, livelihoods and communities are affected and it shouldn’t escape notice that human encroachment on animal habitats is contributing to massive species losses, what some call the Sixth Great Extinction.  Criminologists are grappling with the language characterizing this wonton disregard with words like “ecocide” and “biocide.”

Kramer suggests that we shift our lifestyles from a culture based on materialistic consumption to a culture based on the caretaking of the Earth, as advocated by Scott Russell Sanders in A Conservationist Manifesto (2009).  Sanders asks such questions as (see a video with Sanders)

  • What would a truly sustainable economy look like?
  • What responsibilities do we bear for the well-being of future generations?
  • What responsibilities do we bear toward Earth’s millions of other species?
  • In a time of ecological calamity and widespread human suffering, how should we imagine a good life?

Third, Kramer calls for a more “prophetic imagination” as put forward by Walter Brueggeman, a theologian and professor emeritus at Columbia Theological Seminary, where we take a reasoned approach and face the realities of climate change, confront the truth, “penetrate the numbness and despair,” and avoid drowning in our sense of loss and grief that is paralyzing us from action.

Such an approach can give voice to a “hope-filled responsibility” where people are empowered to act rather than left listless and inattentive.

“It’s not about someone being responsible, but all of us,” said Kramer, “because we are all affected by climate change.”

One major way we can do that is by reducing greenhouse gas emissions—and we have a way to measure our progress.

Bill McKibben, author of The End of Nature (1988), one of the first popularized books about global warming, contends that rising counts in greenhouse gas emissions are threatening our world.  Today, we are at 400 parts per million (ppm) and heading toward 550-650 ppm compared to pre-industrial counts that measured at 275 ppm.  McKibben advocates a goal of 350 ppm and has encouraged people in 188 countries to reduce carbon emissions in their communities.  (See the video explaining this charge.)

However, can people really be motivated to act given the complexity of the problem?

Kramer harkens to Howard Zinn’s autobiographical book, You Can’t Be Neutral on a Moving Train (1994).  In it Zinn says that we have to “look to history” to see that people working at the grassroots level were able to make change despite tremendous and entrenched obstacles.  It was people who ended slavery and Apartheid, liberated India, dismantled the Soviet Union and initiated the Arab Spring of 2011.  (See a video with Zinn)

“Climate change is a political issue” Kramer insisted.  “We know what to do.  We know that we need to mitigate the carbon emissions from fossil fuels.  What we lack is the political will and the mechanisms to move forward.”

Kramer insisted that climate change is not a party or ideological issue but rather a humanity issue.

“Planet Earth will survive,” he concluded, “but will human civilization?”

Quinto relatório do IPCC: repercussão

Documento divulgado nesta sexta (27/09) afirma que a temperatura do planeta pode subir quase 5 °C durante este século, o que poderá elevar o nível dos oceanos em até 82 centímetros (foto do Oceano Ártico: Nasa)

Especiais

Quinto relatório do IPCC mostra intensificação das mudanças climáticas

27/09/2013

Por Karina Toledo, de Londres

Agência FAPESP – Caso as emissões de gases do efeito estufa continuem crescendo às atuais taxas ao longo dos próximos anos, a temperatura do planeta poderá aumentar até 4,8 graus Celsius neste século – o que poderá resultar em uma elevação de até 82 centímetros no nível do mar e causar danos importantes na maior parte das regiões costeiras do globo.

O alerta foi feito pelos cientistas do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC, na sigla em inglês), da Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU), que divulgaram no dia 27 de setembro, em Estocolmo, na Suécia, a primeira parte de seu quinto relatório de avaliação (AR5). Com base na revisão de milhares de pesquisas realizadas nos últimos cinco anos, o documento apresenta as bases científicas da mudança climática global.

De acordo com Paulo Artaxo, professor do Instituto de Física da Universidade de São Paulo (USP) e um dos seis brasileiros que participaram da elaboração desse relatório, foram simulados quatro diferentes cenários de concentrações de gases de efeito estufa, possíveis de acontecer até o ano de 2100 – os chamados “Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)”.

“Para fazer a previsão do aumento da temperatura são necessários dois ingredientes básicos: um modelo climático e um cenário de emissões. No quarto relatório (divulgado em 2007) também foram simulados quatro cenários, mas se levou em conta apenas a quantidade de gases de efeito estufa emitida. Neste quinto relatório, nós usamos um sistema mais completo, que leva em conta os impactos dessas emissões, ou seja, o quanto haverá de alteração no balanço de radiação do sistema terrestre”, explicou Artaxo, que está em Londres para a FAPESP Week London, onde participou de um painel sobre mudança climática.

O balanço de radiação corresponde à razão entre a quantidade de energia solar que entra e que sai de nosso planeta, indicando o quanto ficou armazenada no sistema terrestre de acordo com as concentrações de gases de efeito estufa, partículas de aerossóis emitidas e outros agentes climáticos.

O cenário mais otimista prevê que o sistema terrestre armazenará 2,6 watts por metro quadrado (W/m2) adicionais. Nesse caso, o aumento da temperatura terrestre poderia variar entre 0,3 °C e 1,7 °C de 2010 até 2100 e o nível do mar poderia subir entre 26 e 55 centímetros ao longo deste século.

“Para que esse cenário acontecesse, seria preciso estabilizar as concentrações de gases do efeito estufa nos próximos 10 anos e atuar para sua remoção da atmosfera. Ainda assim, os modelos indicam um aumento adicional de quase 2 °C na temperatura – além do 0,9 °C que nosso planeta já aqueceu desde o ano 1750”, avaliou Artaxo.

O segundo cenário (RCP4.5) prevê um armazenamento de 4,5 W/m2. Nesse caso, o aumento da temperatura terrestre seria entre 1,1 °C e 2,6 °C e o nível do mar subiria entre 32 e 63 centímetros. No terceiro cenário, de 6,0 W/m2, o aumento da temperatura varia de 1,4 °C até 3,1 °C e o nível do mar subiria entre 33 e 63 centímetros.

Já o pior cenário, no qual as emissões continuam a crescer em ritmo acelerado, prevê um armazenamento adicional de 8,5 W/m2. Em tal situação, segundo o IPCC, a superfície da Terra poderia aquecer entre 2,6 °C e 4,8 °C ao longo deste século, fazendo com que o nível dos oceanos aumente entre 45 e 82 centímetros.

“O nível dos oceanos já subiu em média 20 centímetros entre 1900 e 2012. Se subir outros 60 centímetros, com as marés, o resultado será uma forte erosão nas áreas costeiras de todo o mundo. Rios como o Amazonas, por exemplo, sofrerão forte refluxo de água salgada, o que afeta todo o ecossistema local”, disse Artaxo.

Segundo o relatório AR5 do IPCC, em todos os cenários, é muito provável (90% de probabilidade) que a taxa de elevação dos oceanos durante o século 21 exceda a observada entre 1971 e 2010. A expansão térmica resultante do aumento da temperatura e o derretimento das geleiras seriam as principais causas.

O aquecimento dos oceanos, diz o relatório, continuará ocorrendo durante séculos, mesmo se as emissões de gases-estufa diminuírem ou permanecerem constantes. A região do Ártico é a que vai aquecer mais fortemente, de acordo com o IPCC.

Segundo Artaxo, o aquecimento das águas marinhas tem ainda outras consequências relevantes, que não eram propriamente consideradas nos modelos climáticos anteriores. Conforme o oceano esquenta, ele perde a capacidade de absorver dióxido de carbono (CO2) da atmosfera. Se a emissão atual for mantida, portanto, poderá haver uma aceleração nas concentrações desse gás na atmosfera.

“No relatório anterior, os capítulos dedicados ao papel dos oceanos nas mudanças climáticas careciam de dados experimentais. Mas nos últimos anos houve um enorme avanço na ciência do clima. Neste quinto relatório, por causa de medições feitas por satélites e de observações feitas com redes de boias – como as do Projeto Pirata que a FAPESP financia no Atlântico Sul –, a confiança sobre o impacto dos oceanos no clima melhorou muito”, afirmou Artaxo.

Acidificação dos oceanos

Em todos os cenários previstos no quinto relatório do IPCC, as concentrações de CO2 serão maiores em 2100 em comparação aos níveis atuais, como resultado do aumento cumulativo das emissões ocorrido durante os séculos 20 e 21. Parte do CO2 emitido pela atividade humana continuará a ser absorvida pelos oceanos e, portanto, é “virtualmente certo” (99% de probabilidade) que a acidificação dos mares vai aumentar. No melhor dos cenários – o RCP2,6 –, a queda no pH será entre 0,06 e 0,07. Na pior das hipóteses – o RCP8,5 –, entre 0,30 e 0,32.

“A água do mar é alcalina, com pH em torno de 8,12. Mas quando absorve CO2 ocorre a formação de compostos ácidos. Esses ácidos dissolvem a carcaça de parte dos microrganismos marinhos, que é feita geralmente de carbonato de cálcio. A maioria da biota marinha sofrerá alterações profundas, o que afeta também toda a cadeia alimentar”, afirmou Artaxo.

Ao analisar as mudanças já ocorridas até o momento, os cientistas do IPCC afirmam que as três últimas décadas foram as mais quentes em comparação com todas as anteriores desde 1850. A primeira década do século 21 foi a mais quente de todas. O período entre 1983 e 2012 foi “muito provavelmente” (90% de probabilidade) o mais quente dos últimos 800 anos. Há ainda cerca de 60% de probabilidade de que tenha sido o mais quente dos últimos 1.400 anos.

No entanto, o IPCC reconhece ter havido uma queda na taxa de aquecimento do planeta nos últimos 15 anos – passando de 0,12 °C por década (quando considerado o período entre 1951 e 2012) para 0,05°C (quando considerado apenas o período entre 1998 e 2012).

De acordo com Artaxo, o fenômeno se deve a dois fatores principais: a maior absorção de calor em águas profundas (mais de 700 metros) e a maior frequência de fenômenos La Niña, que alteram a taxa de transferência de calor da atmosfera aos oceanos. “O processo é bem claro e documentado em revistas científicas de prestígio. Ainda assim, o planeta continua aquecendo de forma significativa”, disse.

Há 90% de certeza de que o número de dias e noites frios diminuíram, enquanto os dias e noites quentes aumentaram na escala global. E cerca de 60% de certeza de que as ondas de calor também aumentaram. O relatório diz haver fortes evidências de degelo, principalmente na região do Ártico. Há 90% de certeza de que a taxa de redução da camada de gelo tenha sido entre 3,5% e 4,1% por década entre 1979 e 2012.

As concentrações de CO2 na atmosfera já aumentaram mais de 20% desde 1958, quando medições sistemáticas começaram a ser feitas, e cerca de 40% desde 1750. De acordo com o IPCC, o aumento é resultado da atividade humana, principalmente da queima de combustíveis fósseis e do desmatamento, havendo uma pequena participação da indústria cimenteira.

Para os cientistas há uma “confiança muito alta” (nove chances em dez) de que as taxas médias de CO2, metano e óxido nitroso do último século sejam as mais altas dos últimos 22 mil anos. Já mudanças na irradiação solar e a atividade vulcânica contribuíram com uma pequena fração da alteração climática. É “extremamente provável” (95% de certeza) de que a influência humana sobre o clima causou mais da metade do aumento da temperatura observado entre 1951 e 2010.

“Os efeitos da mudança climática já estão sendo sentidos, não é algo para o futuro. O aumento de ondas de calor, da frequência de furacões, das inundações e tempestades severas, das variações bruscas entre dias quentes e frios provavelmente está relacionado ao fato de que o sistema climático está sendo alterado”, disse Artaxo.

Impacto persistente

Na avaliação do IPCC, muitos aspectos da mudança climática vão persistir durante muitos séculos mesmo se as emissões de gases-estufa cessarem. É “muito provável” (90% de certeza) que mais de 20% do CO2 emitido permanecerá na atmosfera por mais de mil anos após as emissões cessarem, afirma o relatório.

“O que estamos alterando não é o clima da próxima década ou até o fim deste século. Existem várias publicações com simulações que mostram concentrações altas de CO2 até o ano 3000, pois os processos de remoção do CO2 atmosférico são muito lentos”, contou Artaxo.

Para o professor da USP, os impactos são significativos e fortes, mas não são catastróficos. “É certo que muitas regiões costeiras vão sofrer forte erosão e milhões de pessoas terão de ser removidas de onde vivem hoje. Mas claro que não é o fim do mundo. A questão é: como vamos nos adaptar, quem vai controlar a governabilidade desse sistema global e de onde sairão recursos para que países em desenvolvimento possam construir barreiras de contenção contra as águas do mar, como as que já estão sendo ampliadas na Holanda. Quanto mais cedo isso for planejado, menores serão os impactos socioeconômicos”, avaliou.

Os impactos e as formas de adaptação à nova realidade climática serão o tema da segunda parte do quinto relatório do IPCC, previsto para ser divulgado em janeiro de 2014. O documento contou com a colaboração de sete cientistas brasileiros. Outros 13 brasileiros participaram da elaboração da terceira parte do AR5, que discute formas de mitigar a mudança climática e deve sair em março.

De maneira geral, cresceu o número de cientistas vindos de países em desenvolvimento, particularmente do Brasil, dentro do IPCC. “O Brasil é um dos países líderes em pesquisas sobre mudança climática atualmente. Além disso, o IPCC percebeu que, se o foco ficasse apenas nos países desenvolvidos, informações importantes sobre o que está acontecendo nos trópicos poderiam deixar de ser incluídas. E é onde fica a Amazônia, um ecossistema-chave para o planeta”, disse Artaxo.

No dia 9 de setembro, o Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas (PBMC) divulgou o sumário executivo de seu primeiro Relatório de Avaliação Nacional (RAN1). O documento, feito nos mesmos moldes do relatório do IPCC, indica que no Brasil o aumento de temperatura até 2100 será entre 1 °C e 6 °C, em comparação à registrada no fim do século 20. Como consequência, deverá diminuir significativamente a ocorrência de chuvas em grande parte das regiões central, Norte e Nordeste do país. Nas regiões Sul e Sudeste, por outro lado, haverá um aumento do número de precipitações.

“A humanidade nunca enfrentou um problema cuja relevância chegasse perto das mudanças climáticas, que vai afetar absolutamente todos os seres vivos do planeta. Não temos um sistema de governança global para implementar medidas de redução de emissões e verificação. Por isso, vai demorar ainda pelo menos algumas décadas para que o problema comece a ser resolvido”, opinou Artaxo.

Para o pesquisador, a medida mais urgente é a redução das emissões de gases de efeito estufa – compromisso que tem de ser assumido por todas as nações. “A consciência de que todos habitamos o mesmo barco é muito forte hoje, mas ainda não há mecanismos de governabilidade global para fazer esse barco andar na direção certa. Isso terá que ser construído pela nossa geração”, concluiu.

*   *   *

JC e-mail 4822, de 27 de Setembro de 2013.

IPCC lança na Suécia novo relatório sobre as mudanças climáticas (O Globo)

O documento reúne previsões do aquecimento global até 2100 apontando aumento de temperatura superior a 2 graus. ‘A influência humana no clima é clara’, diz trabalho

A previsão do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas da ONU (IPCC) é que o aquecimento global até o final do século 21 seja “provavelmente superior” a 2 graus (com pelo menos 66% de chances disto acontecer), superando o limite considerado seguro pelos especialistas. Até 2100, o nível do mar deve aumentar perigosamente de 45 a 82 centímetros, considerando o pior cenário (ou de 26 a 55 centímetros, no melhor), e o gelo do Ártico pode diminuir até 94% durante o verão local.

Além disso, o relatório do IPCC — publicado na manhã desta sexta-feira em Estocolmo, na Suécia, com as bases científicas mais atualizadas sobre as mudanças climáticas — considera que há mais de 95% de certeza para afirmar que o homem causou mais da metade da elevação média da temperatura entre 1951 e 2010. Neste período, o nível dos oceanos aumentou 19 centímetros.

O documento, com o trabalho de 259 cientistas e representantes dos governos de 195 países, inclusive o Brasil, ressalta que parte das emissões de CO2 provocadas pelo homem continuará a ser absorvida pelos oceanos. Por isso, é praticamente certo (99% de probabilidade) que a acidificação dos mares vai aumentar, afetando profundamente a vida marinha.

– A mudança de temperatura da superfície do planeta deve exceder 1,5 grau, e, provavelmente, será superior a 2 graus – disse o copresidente do trabalho Thomas Stocker. – É muito provável que as ondas de calor ocorram com mais frequência e durem mais tempo. Com o aquecimento da Terra, esperamos ver regiões atualmente úmidas recebendo mais chuvas, e as áridas, menos, apesar de haver exceções.

Os especialistas fizeram quatro projeções considerando situações diferentes de emissões de gases-estufa. Em todas, há aumento de temperatura. As mais brandas ficam entre 0,3 ºC e 1,7 ºC. Nestes casos, seria necessário diminuir muito as emissões. Já no cenário mais pessimista, o aquecimento ficaria entre 2,6 ºC e 4,8 ºC.

– Na minha opinião, o relatório é muito bom, repleto de informações e todas muito bem fundamentadas – comentou a especialista brasileira Suzana Kahn, que faz parte do grupo de pesquisadores do IPCC em Estocolmo. – No fundo, o grande ganho é a comprovação do que tem sido dito há mais tempo, com muito mais informação sobre o papel dos oceanos, das nuvens e aerossóis. Isto é muito importante para o mundo científico, pois aponta para áreas que precisam ser mais investigadas.

Suzana conta que a dificuldade de fazer projeções e análises para o Hemisfério Sul causou muita polêmica. O grande problema é a falta de dados:

– Acho que isto foi interessante para comprovar que estávamos certos ao criar o Painel Brasileiro de Mudança Climática para suprir esta lacuna.

De acordo com Carlos Rittl, Coordenador do Programa de Mudanças Climáticas e Energias do WWF-Brasil, o relatório do IPCC deixa uma mensagem clara: o aquecimento global é incontestável. E é preciso começar agora contra os piores efeitos.

– O relatório do IPCC reafirma algumas certezas e vai além. Aponta a perda de massa de gelo, o aumento do nível dos oceanos, o incremento de chuvas onde já se chove muito, além da diminuição da umidade nas regiões mais áridas. No Brasil, o semiárido pode se tornar mais árido. Por outro lado, o Sul e Sudeste podem ter mais chuvas do que hoje – enumerou Rittl. – É importante ressaltar que o relatório fala de médias. Ou seja, em algumas regiões do país pode haver aumento de seis graus, com picos de mais de oito graus. A gente não está preparado para isso. E nossas emissões nos colocam numa trajetória de altíssimo risco, mais próxima dos piores cenários.

Para Rittl, a ciência está dando uma mensagem clara: é preciso diminuir as emissões. Isso significa levar os temas relacionados às mudanças climáticas para as decisões políticas:

– Hoje o aquecimento global ainda é um tema marginal. Os investimentos em infraestrutura, energia, o plano Safra, todos os grandes investimentos da escala de trilhões de reais não têm praticamente nenhuma vinculação com a lógica de baixo carbono. Estamos sendo pouco responsáveis.

Diplomacia e ciência
John Kerry, secretário de Estado dos EUA, ressalta que o relatório do IPCC não deve ser esquecido num armário, nem interpretado como uma peça política feita por políticos: “é ciência”, resume. De acordo com ele, os Estados Unidos estão “profundamente comprometidos em combater as mudanças climáticas”, reduzindo emissões de gases-estufa e investindo em formas eficientes de energia.

Este é mais um chamado de atenção: aqueles que negam a ciência ou procuram desculpas para evitar a ação estão brincando com fogo – afirmou Kerry. – O resumo do relatório do IPCC é este: a mudança climática é real, está acontecendo agora, os seres humanos são a causa dessa transformação, e somente a ação dos seres humanos pode salvar o mundo de seus piores impactos.

Lançado a cada seis anos, os relatórios do IPCC estão sob críticas de especialistas. O processo de análise dos documentos por representantes do governo acaba chegando a uma situação intermediária entre diplomacia e ciência, explica Emilio La Rovere, pesquisador da Coppe/UFRJ.

– O resultado é um meio termo entre diplomacia e ciência – afirmou Rovere.
Um dos pontos mais polêmicos são os chamados hiatos, períodos de cerca de 15 anos em que a temperatura média do planeta não aumenta. Por exemplo, a Agência Estatal de Meteorologia da Espanha anunciou, nesta semana, que o último trimestre na Península Ibérica foi o menos quente desde 2008. Entretanto, o relatório de 2007 do IPCC não citou estas pausas do aquecimento, dando argumento aos céticos.

Limite do aquecimento global
As informações do IPCC são importantes para a criação de estratégias de combate às mudanças climáticas. Na Convenção do Clima da Dinamarca (COP-15, realizada em 2009), foi criada a meta de limitar o aquecimento global em 2 graus. Para isso acontecer em 2050, explica Emilio La Rovere, da Coppe/UFRJ, seria necessário cortar 80% das emissões em comparação com 1990:

– Os modelos matemáticos simulando evolução demográfica, economia mundial, demanda e oferta de energia mostram que fica realmente quase impossível atingir este objetivo.

Este é o Quinto Relatório do IPCC, que será lançado em quatro partes, entre setembro de 2013 e novembro de 2014. Nesta sexta-feira, foi publicado o documento do Grupo de Trabalho I (sobre os aspectos científicos das mudanças climáticas). Entre os dias 25 e 29 de março de 2014, será a vez do Grupo de Trabalho II (analisando os impactos, a adaptação e a vulnerabilidade), que se reunirá em Yokohama, no Japão. O Grupo de Trabalho III (especializado na mitigação dos impactos das mudanças climáticas) está previsto para os dias 7 e 11 de abril em Berlim, na Alemanha. Por fim, será criado um relatório síntese, cujos trabalhos ocorrerão entre os dias 27 e 31 de outubro, em Copenhague, na Dinamarca.

(Cláudio Motta/O Globo)

http://oglobo.globo.com/ciencia/ipcc-lanca-na-suecia-novo-relatorio-sobre-as-mudancas-climaticas-10173671#ixzz2g6D6tmU6

Matéria complementar de O Globo:

Relatório destaca como a ação humana agrava o aquecimento
http://oglobo.globo.com/ciencia/relatorio-destaca-como-acao-humana-agrava-aquecimento-1-10171896#ixzz2g6MfZIsl

Veja mais em:

Folha de S.Paulo
Relatório sobe tom de alerta sobre aquecimento
http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/saudeciencia/131005-relatorio-sobe-tom-de-alerta-sobre-aquecimento.shtml

Agência Estado
ONU culpa atividades humanas por aquecimento global
http://www.territorioeldorado.limao.com.br/noticias/not297255.shtm

Zero Hora
Temperatura da Terra subirá entre 0,3°C e 4,8°C neste século, aponta IPCC
http://zerohora.clicrbs.com.br/rs/geral/planeta-ciencia/noticia/2013/09/temperatura-da-terra-subira-entre-0-3c-e-4-8c-neste-seculo-aponta-ipcc-4283083.html

Correio Braziliense
Temperatura do planeta subirá entre 0,3 e 4,8ºC no século 21, diz IPCC
http://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/app/noticia/ciencia-e-saude/2013/09/27/interna_ciencia_saude,390388/temperatura-do-planeta-subira-entre-0-3-e-4-8-c-no-seculo-21-diz-ipcc.shtml