Arquivo da tag: Previsão

Seca no semiárido deve se agravar nos próximos anos – e outros artigos relacionados à Conclima (Fapesp)

Pesquisadores alertam para necessidade de executar ações urgentes de adaptação e mitigação aos impactos das mudanças climáticas previstos na região (foto: Fred Jordão/Acervo ASACom)

12/09/2013

Por Elton Alisson

Agência FAPESP – Os problemas de seca prolongada registrados atualmente no semiárido brasileiro devem se agravar ainda mais nos próximos anos por causa das mudanças climáticas globais. Por isso, é preciso executar ações urgentes de adaptação e mitigação desses impactos e repensar os tipos de atividades econômicas que podem ser desenvolvidas na região.

A avaliação foi feita por pesquisadores que participaram das discussões sobre desenvolvimento regional e desastres naturais realizadas no dia 10 de setembro durante a 1ª Conferência Nacional de Mudanças Climáticas Globais (Conclima).

Organizado pela FAPESP e promovido em parceria com a Rede Brasileira de Pesquisa e Mudanças Climáticas Globais (Rede Clima) e o Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia para Mudanças Climáticas (INCT-MC), o evento ocorre até a próxima sexta-feira (13/09), no Espaço Apas, em São Paulo.

De acordo com dados do Centro Nacional de Gerenciamento de Riscos e Desastres (Cenad), só nos últimos dois anos foram registrados 1.466 alertas de municípios no semiárido que entraram em estado de emergência ou de calamidade pública em razão de seca e estiagem – os desastres naturais mais recorrentes no Brasil, segundo o órgão.

O Primeiro Relatório de Avaliação Nacional do Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas (PBMC) – cujo sumário executivo foi divulgado no dia de abertura da Conclima – estima que esses eventos extremos aumentem principalmente nos biomas Amazônia, Cerrado e Caatinga e que as mudanças devem se acentuar a partir da metade e até o fim do século 21. Dessa forma, o semiárido sofrerá ainda mais no futuro com o problema da escassez de água que enfrenta hoje, alertaram os pesquisadores.

“Se hoje já vemos que a situação é grave, os modelos de cenários futuros das mudanças climáticas no Brasil indicam que o problema será ainda pior. Por isso, todas as ações de adaptação e mitigação pensadas para ser desenvolvidas ao longo dos próximos anos, na verdade, têm de ser realizadas agora”, disse Marcos Airton de Sousa Freitas, especialista em recursos hídricos e técnico da Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA).

Segundo o pesquisador, o semiárido – que abrange Bahia, Sergipe, Alagoas, Pernambuco, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Ceará, Piauí e o norte de Minas Gerais – vive hoje o segundo ano do período de seca, iniciado em 2011, que pode se prolongar por um tempo indefinido.

Um estudo realizado pelo órgão, com base em dados de vazão de bacias hidrológicas da região, apontou que a duração média dos períodos de seca no semiárido é de 4,5 anos. Estados como o Ceará, no entanto, já enfrentaram secas com duração de quase nove anos, seguidos por longos períodos nos quais choveu abaixo da média estimada.

De acordo com Freitas, a capacidade média dos principais reservatórios da região – com volume acima de 10 milhões de metros cúbicos de água e capacidade de abastecer os principais municípios por até três anos – está atualmente na faixa de 40%. E a tendência até o fim deste ano é de esvaziarem cada vez mais.

“Caso não haja um aporte considerável de água nesses grandes reservatórios em 2013, poderemos ter uma transição do problema de seca que se observa hoje no semiárido, mais rural, para uma seca ‘urbana’ – que atingiria a população de cidades abastecidas por meio de adutoras desses sistemas de reservatórios”, alertou Freitas.

Ações de adaptação

Uma das ações de adaptação que começou a ser implementada no semiárido nos últimos anos e que, de acordo com os pesquisadores, contribuiu para diminuir sensivelmente a vulnerabilidade do acesso à água, principalmente da população rural difusa, foi o Programa Um Milhão de Cisternas (P1MC).

Lançado em 2003 pela Articulação Semiárido Brasileiro (ASA) – rede formada por mais de mil organizações não governamentais (ONGs) que atuam na gestão e no desenvolvimento de políticas de convivência com a região semiárida –, o programa visa implementar um sistema nas comunidades rurais da região por meio do qual a água das chuvas é capturada por calhas, instaladas nos telhados das casas, e armazenada em cisternas cobertas e semienterradas. As cisternas são construídas com placas de cimento pré-moldadas, feitas pela própria comunidade, e têm capacidade de armazenar até 16 mil litros de água.

O programa tem contribuído para o aproveitamento da água da chuva em locais onde chove até 600 milímetros por ano – comparável ao volume das chuvas na Europa – que evaporam e são perdidos rapidamente sem um mecanismo que os represe, avaliaram os pesquisadores.

“Mesmo com a seca extrema na região nos últimos dois anos, observamos que a água para o consumo da população rural difusa tem sido garantida pelo programa, que já implantou cerca de 500 mil cisternas e é uma ação política de adaptação a eventos climáticos extremos. Com programas sociais, como o Bolsa Família, o programa Um Milhão de Cisternas tem contribuído para atenuar os impactos negativos causados pelas secas prolongadas na região”, afirmou Saulo Rodrigues Filho, professor da Universidade de Brasília (UnB).

Como a água tende a ser um recurso natural cada vez mais raro no semiárido nos próximos anos, Rodrigues defendeu a necessidade de repensar os tipos de atividades econômicas mais indicadas para a região.

“Talvez a agricultura não seja a atividade mais sustentável para o semiárido e há evidências de que é preciso diversificar as atividades produtivas na região, não dependendo apenas da agricultura familiar, que já enfrenta problemas de perda de mão de obra, uma vez que o aumento dos níveis de educação leva os jovens da região a se deslocar do campo para a cidade”, disse Rodrigues.

“Por meio de políticas de geração de energia mais sustentáveis, como a solar e a eólica, e de fomento a atividades como o artesanato e o turismo, é possível contribuir para aumentar a resiliência dessas populações a secas e estiagens agudas”, afirmou.

Outras medidas necessárias, apontada por Freitas, são de realocação de água entre os setores econômicos que utilizam o recurso e seleção de culturas agrícolas mais resistentes à escassez de água enfrentada na região.

“Há culturas no semiárido, como capim para alimentação de gado, que dependem de irrigação por aspersão. Não faz sentido ter esse tipo de cultura que demanda muito água em uma região que sofrerá muito os impactos das mudanças climáticas”, afirmou Freitas.

Transposição do Rio São Francisco

O pesquisador também defendeu que o projeto de transposição do Rio São Francisco tornou-se muito mais necessário agora – tendo em vista que a escassez de água deverá ser um problema cada vez maior no semiárido nas próximas décadas – e é fundamental para complementar as ações desenvolvidas na região para atenuar o risco de desabastecimento de água.

Alvo de críticas e previsto para ser concluído em 2015, o projeto prevê que as águas do Rio São Francisco cheguem às bacias do Rio Jaguaribe, que abastece o Ceará, e do Rio Piranhas-Açu, que abastece o Rio Grande do Norte e a Paraíba.

De acordo com um estudo realizado pela ANA, com financiamento do Banco Mundial e participação de pesquisadores da Universidade Federal do Ceará, entre outras instituições, a disponibilidade hídrica dessas duas bacias deve diminuir sensivelmente nos próximos anos, contribuindo para agravar ainda mais a deficiência hídrica do semiárido.

“A transposição do Rio Francisco tornou-se muito mais necessária e deveria ser acelerada porque contribuiria para minimizar o problema do déficit de água no semiárido agora, que deve piorar com a previsão de diminuição da disponibilidade hídrica nas bacias do Rio Jaguaribe e do Rio Piranhas-Açu”, disse Freitas à Agência FAPESP.

O Primeiro Relatório de Avaliação Nacional do PBMC, no entanto, indica que a vazão do Rio São Francisco deve diminuir em até 30% até o fim do século, o que colocaria o projeto de transposição sob ameaça.

Freitas, contudo, ponderou que 70% do volume de água do Rio São Francisco vem de bacias da região Sudeste, para as quais os modelos climáticos preveem aumento da vazão nas próximas décadas. Além disso, de acordo com ele, o volume total previsto para ser transposto para as bacias do Rio Jaguaribe e do Rio Piranhas-Açu corresponde a apenas 2% da vazão média da bacia do Rio São Francisco.

“É uma situação completamente diferente do caso do Sistema Cantareira, por exemplo, no qual praticamente 90% da água dos rios Piracicaba, Jundiaí e Capivari são transpostas para abastecer a região metropolitana de São Paulo”, comparou.

“Pode-se argumentar sobre a questão de custos da transposição do Rio São Francisco. Mas, em termos de necessidade de uso da água, o projeto reforçará a operação dos sistemas de reservatórios existentes no semiárido”, afirmou.

De acordo com o pesquisador, a água é distribuída de forma desigual no território brasileiro. Enquanto 48% do total do volume de chuvas que cai na Amazônia é escoado pela Bacia Amazônica, segundo Freitas, no semiárido apenas em média 7% do volume de água precipitada na região durante três a quatro meses chegam às bacias do Rio Jaguaribe e do Rio Piranhas-Açu. Além disso, grande parte desse volume de água é perdido pela evaporação. “Por isso, temos necessidade de armazenar essa água restante para os meses nos quais não haverá disponibilidade”, explicou.

As apresentações feitas pelos pesquisadores na conferência, que termina no dia 13, estarão disponíveis em: www.fapesp.br/conclima

 

Mudanças no clima do Brasil até 2100

10/09/2013

Por Elton Alisson*

Mais calor, menos chuva no Norte e Nordeste do país e mais chuva no Sul e Sudeste são algumas das projeções do Relatório de Avaliação Nacional do Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas (foto: Eduardo Cesar/FAPESP)

Agência FAPESP – O clima no Brasil nas próximas décadas deverá ser mais quente – com aumento gradativo e variável da temperatura média em todas as regiões do país entre 1 ºC e 6 ºC até 2100, em comparação à registrada no fim do século 20.

No mesmo período, também deverá diminuir significativamente a ocorrência de chuvas em grande parte das regiões central, Norte e Nordeste do país. Nas regiões Sul e Sudeste, por outro lado, haverá um aumento do número de precipitações.

As conclusões são do primeiro Relatório de Avaliação Nacional (RAN1) do Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas (PBMC), cujo sumário executivo foi divulgado nesta segunda-feira (09/08), durante a 1ª Conferência Nacional de Mudanças Climáticas Globais (Conclima). Organizado pela FAPESP e promovido com a Rede Brasileira de Pesquisa e Mudanças Climáticas Globais (Rede Clima) e o Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia para Mudanças Climáticas (INCT-MC), oevento ocorre até a próxima sexta-feira (13/09), no Espaço Apas, em São Paulo.

De acordo com o relatório, tendo em vista que as mudanças climáticas e os impactos sobre as populações e os setores econômicos nos próximos anos não serão idênticos em todo o país, o Brasil precisa levar em conta as diferenças regionais no desenvolvimento de ações de adaptação e mitigação e de políticas agrícolas, de geração de energia e de abastecimento hídrico para essas diferentes regiões.

Dividido em três partes, o Relatório 1 – em fase final de elaboração – apresenta projeções regionalizadas das mudanças climáticas que deverão ocorrer nos seis diferentes biomas do Brasil até 2100, e indica quais são seus impactos estimados e as possíveis formas de mitigá-los.

As projeções foram feitas com base em revisões de estudos realizados entre 2007 e início de 2013 por 345 pesquisadores de diversas áreas, integrantes do PBMC, e em resultados científicos de modelagem climática global e regional.

“O Relatório está sendo preparado nos mesmos moldes dos relatórios publicados pelo Painel Intergovernamental das Mudanças Climáticas [IPCC, na sigla em inglês], que não realiza pesquisa, mas avalia os estudos já publicados”, disse José Marengo, pesquisador do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (Inpe) e coordenador do encontro.

“Depois de muito trabalho e interação, chegamos aos resultados principais dos três grupos de trabalho [Bases científicas das mudanças climáticas; Impactos, vulnerabilidades e adaptação; e Mitigação das mudanças climáticas]”, ressaltou.

Principais conclusões

Uma das conclusões do relatório é de que os eventos extremos de secas e estiagens prolongadas, principalmente nos biomas da Amazônia, Cerrado e Caatinga, devem aumentar e essas mudanças devem se acentuar a partir da metade e no fim do século 21.

A temperatura na Amazônia deverá aumentar progressivamente de 1 ºC a 1,5 ºC até 2040 – com diminuição de 25% a 30% no volume de chuvas –, entre 3 ºC e 3,5 ºC no período de 2041 a 2070 – com redução de 40% a 45% na ocorrência de chuvas –, e entre 5 ºC a 6 ºC entre 2071 a 2100.

Enquanto as modificações do clima associadas às mudanças globais podem comprometer o bioma em longo prazo, a questão atual do desmatamento decorrente das intensas atividades de uso da terra representa uma ameaça mais imediata para a Amazônia, ponderam os autores do relatório.

Os pesquisadores ressaltam que estudos observacionais e de modelagem numérica sugerem que, caso o desmatamento alcance 40% na região no futuro, haverá uma mudança drástica no padrão do ciclo hidrológico, com redução de 40% na chuva durante os meses de julho a novembro – o que prolongaria a duração da estação seca e provocaria o aquecimento superficial do bioma em até 4 ºC.

Dessa forma, as mudanças regionais decorrentes do efeito do desmatamento se somariam às provenientes das mudanças globais e constituíram condições propícias para a savanização da Amazônia – problema que tende a ser mais crítico na região oriental, ressaltam os pesquisadores.

“As projeções permitirão analisar melhor esse problema de savanização da Amazônia, que, na verdade, percebemos que poderá ocorrer em determinados pontos da floresta, e não no bioma como um todo, conforme previam alguns estudos”, destacou Tércio Ambrizzi, um dos autores coordenadores do sumário executivo do grupo de trabalho sobre a base científica das mudanças climáticas.

A temperatura da Caatinga também deverá aumentar entre 0,5 ºC e 1 ºC e as chuvas no bioma diminuirão entre 10% e 20% até 2040. Entre 2041 e 2070 o clima da região deverá ficar de 1,5 ºC a 2,5 ºC mais quente e o padrão de chuva diminuir entre 25% e 35%. Até o final do século, a temperatura do bioma deverá aumentar progressivamente entre 3,5 ºC e 4,5 ºC  e a ocorrência de chuva diminuir entre 40% e 50%. Tais mudanças podem desencadear o processo de desertificação do bioma.

Por sua vez, a temperatura no Cerrado deverá aumentar entre 5 ºC e 5,5 ºC e as chuvas diminuirão entre 35% e 45% no bioma até 2100. No Pantanal, o aquecimento da temperatura deverá ser de 3,5ºC a 4,5ºC até o final do século, com diminuição acentuada dos padrões de chuva no bioma – com queda de 35% a 45%.

Já no caso da Mata Atlântica, como o bioma abrange áreas desde a região Sul do país, passando pelo Sudeste e chegando até o Nordeste, as projeções apontam dois regimes distintos de mudanças climáticas.

Na porção Nordeste deve ocorrer um aumento relativamente baixo na temperatura – entre 0,5 ºC e 1 ºC – e decréscimo nos níveis de precipitação (chuva) em torno de 10% até 2040. Entre 2041 e 2070, o aquecimento do clima da região deverá ser de 2 ºC a 3 ºC, com diminuição pluviométrica entre 20% e 25%. Já para o final do século – entre 2071 e 2100 –, estimam-se condições de aquecimento intenso – com aumento de 3 ºC a 4 ºC na temperatura – e diminuição de 30% a 35% na ocorrência de chuvas.

Nas porções Sul e Sudeste as projeções indicam aumento relativamente baixo de temperatura entre 0,5 ºC e 1 ºC até 2040, com aumento de 5% a 10% no número de chuva. Entre 2041 e 2070 deverão ser mantidas as tendências de aumento gradual de 1,5 ºC a 2 ºC na temperatura e de 15% a 20% de chuvas.

Tais tendências devem se acentuar ainda mais no final do século, quando o clima deverá ficar entre 2,5 ºC e 3 ºC mais quente e entre 25% e 30% mais chuvoso.

Por fim, para o Pampa, as projeções indicam que até 2040 o clima da região será entre 5% e 10% mais chuvoso e até 1 ºC mais quente. Já entre 2041 e 2070, a temperatura do bioma deverá aumentar entre 1 ºC e 1,5 ºC  e haverá uma intensificação das chuvas entre 15% e 20%. As projeções para o clima da região no período entre 2071 e 2100 são mais agravantes, com aumento de temperatura de 2,5 ºC a 3 ºC e ocorrência de chuvas entre 35% e 40% acima do normal.

“O que se observa, de forma geral, é que nas regiões Norte e Nordeste do Brasil a tendência é de um aumento de temperatura e de diminuição das chuvas ao longo do século”, resumiu Ambrizzi.

“Já nas regiões mais ao Sul essa tendência se inverte: há uma tendência tanto de aumento da temperatura – ainda que não intenso – e de precipitação”, comparou.

Impactos e adaptação

As mudanças nos padrões de precipitação nas diferentes regiões do país, causadas pelas mudanças climáticas, deverão ter impactos diretos na agricultura, na geração e distribuição de energia e nos recursos hídricos das regiões, uma vez que a água deve se tornar mais rara nas regiões Norte e Nordeste e mais abundante no Sul e Sudeste, alertam os pesquisadores.

Por isso, será preciso desenvolver ações de adaptação e mitigação específicas e rever decisões de investimento, como a construção de hidrelétricas nas regiões leste da Amazônia, onde os rios poderão ter redução da vazão da ordem de até 20%, ressalvaram os pesquisadores.

“Essas variações de impactos mostram que qualquer tipo de estratégia planejada para geração de energia no leste da Amazônia está ameaçada, porque há uma série de fragilidades”, disse Eduardo Assad, pesquisador da Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa).

“Dará para contar com água. Mas até quando e onde encontrar água nessas regiões são incógnitas”, disse o pesquisador, que é um dos coordenadores do Grupo de Trabalho 2 do relatório, sobre Impactos, vulnerabilidades e adaptação.

De acordo com Assad, é muito caro realizar ações de adaptação às mudanças climáticas no Brasil em razão das fragilidades que o país apresenta tanto em termos naturais – com grandes variações de paisagens – como socioeconômicas.

“A maior parte da população brasileira – principalmente a que habita as regiões costeiras do país – está vulnerável aos impactos das mudanças climáticas. Resolver isso não será algo muito fácil”, estimou.

Entre os setores econômicos do país, segundo Assad, a agricultura é um dos poucos que vêm se adiantando para se adaptar aos impactos das mudanças climáticas.

“Já estamos trabalhando com condições de adaptação há mais de oito anos. É possível desenvolver cultivares tolerantes a temperaturas elevadas ou à deficiência hídrica [dos solos], disse Assad.

O pesquisador também ressaltou que os grupos populacionais com piores condições de renda, educação e moradia sofrerão mais intensamente os impactos das mudanças climáticas no país. “Teremos que tomar decisões rápidas para evitar que tragédias aconteçam.”

Mitigação

Mercedes Bustamante, professora da Universidade de Brasília (UnB), e uma das coordenadoras do Grupo de Trabalho 3, sobre Mitigação das Mudanças Climáticas, apresentou uma síntese de estudos e pesquisas sobre o tema, identificando lacunas do conhecimento e direcionamentos futuros em um cenário de aquecimento global.

Bustamante apontou que a redução das taxas de desmatamento entre 2005 e 2010 – de 2,03 bilhões de toneladas de CO2 equivalente para 1,25 bilhão de toneladas – já teve efeitos positivos na redução das emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) decorrentes do uso da terra.

“As emissões decorrentes da geração de energia e da agricultura, no entanto, aumentaram em termos absolutos e relativos, indicando mudanças no perfil das emissões brasileiras”, disse.

Mantidas as políticas atuais, a previsão é de que as emissões decorrentes dos setores de energia e de transportes aumentem 97% até 2030. Será preciso mais eficiência energética, mais inovação tecnológica e políticas de incentivo ao uso de energia renovável para reverter esse quadro.

Na área de transporte, as recomendações vão desde a transformação de um modal – fortemente baseado no transporte rodoviário – e o uso de combustíveis tecnológicos. “É preciso transferir do individual para o coletivo, investindo, por exemplo, em sistemas aquaviários e em veículos elétricos e híbridos”, ressaltou Bustamante.

O novo perfil das emissões de GEE revela uma participação crescente do metano – de origem animal – e do óxido nitroso – relacionado ao uso de fertilizantes. “Apesar desses resultados, a agricultura avançou no desenvolvimento de estratégias de mitigação e adaptação”, ponderou.

Para a indústria, responsável por 4% das emissões de GEE, a lista de recomendações para a mitigação passa pela reciclagem, pela utilização de biomassa renovável, pela cogeração de energia, entre outros.

As estratégias de mitigação das mudanças climáticas exigem, ainda, uma revisão do planejamento urbano de forma a garantir a sustentabilidade também das edificações de forma a controlar, por exemplo, o consumo da madeira e garantir maior eficiência energética na construção civil.

Informação para a sociedade

Os pesquisadores participantes da redação do relatório destacaram que, entre as virtudes do documento, está a de reunir dados de estudos científicos realizados ao longo dos últimos anos no Brasil que estavam dispersos e disponibilizar à sociedade e aos tomadores de decisão informações técnico-científicas críveis capazes de auxiliar no desenvolvimento de estratégias de adaptação e mitigação para os possíveis impactos das mudanças climáticas.

“Nós, cientistas, temos o desafio de conseguir traduzir a seriedade e a gravidade do momento e as oportunidades que as mudanças climáticas globais encerram para a sociedade. Sabemos que a inação representa a ação menos inteligente que a sociedade pode tomar”, disse Paulo Nobre, coordenador da Rede Clima.

Por sua vez, Celso Lafer, presidente da FAPESP, destacou, na abertura do evento, que a Fundação tem interesse especial nas pesquisas sobre mudanças climáticas, expresso no Programa FAPESP de Pesquisa em Mudanças Climáticas Globais (PFPMCG), mantido pela instituição.

“Uma das preocupações básicas da FAPESP é pesquisar e averiguar o impacto das mudanças climáticas globais naquilo que afeta as especificidades do Brasil e do Estado de São Paulo”, afirmou.

Também participaram da abertura do evento Bruno Covas, secretário do Meio Ambiente do Estado de São Paulo, Carlos Nobre, secretário de Políticas e Programa de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento (Seped) do Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (MCTI), e Paulo Artaxo, membro da coordenação do PFPMCG.

Carlos Nobre ressaltou que o relatório será a principal fonte de informações que orientará o Plano Nacional de Mudanças Climáticas que, no momento, está em revisão.

“É muito importante que os resultados desse estudo orientem os trabalhos em Brasília e em várias partes do Brasil, em um momento crítico de reorientar a política nacional, que tem de ir na direção de tornar a economia, a sociedade e o ambiente mais resilientes às inevitáveis mudanças climáticas que estão por vir”, afirmou.

Segundo ele, o Brasil já sinalizou compromisso com a mitigação, materializado na Política Nacional de Mudanças Climáticas e que prevê redução de 10% e 15% das emissões entre 2010 e 2020, respectivamente, relativamente a 2005.

“São Paulo lançou, em 2009, um programa ambicioso, de redução de 20% das emissões, já que a questão da mudança no uso da terra não é uma questão tão importante no Estado, mas sim o avanço tecnológico na geração de energia e em processos produtivos. O Brasil é o único país em desenvolvimento com metas voluntárias para redução de emissões”.

Ele ressaltou, entretanto, que “a adaptação ficou desassistida”. “Não é só mitigar; é preciso também se adaptar às mudanças climáticas. As três redes de pesquisa – Clima, INCT e FAPESP – avançam na adaptação, que é o guia para o desenvolvimento sustentável.”

* Colaboraram Claudia Izique e Noêmia Lopes

 

Modelo para entender as variações climáticas no país

10/09/2013

Por Noêmia Lopes

Modelo Brasileiro do Sistema Terrestre é considerado fundamental para pesquisas sobre o clima(foto:Nasa)

Agência FAPESP – O desmatamento da Amazônia, as queimadas, os processos de interação entre o Oceano Atlântico e a atmosfera são algumas das questões climáticas particulares do Brasil que o Modelo Brasileiro do Sistema Terrestre (BESM, na sigla em inglês) leva em consideração e pretende dar conta de uma forma que mesmo os melhores modelos do mundo não são capazes de fazer.

O modelo foi apresentado em detalhes na segunda-feira (09/09) na abertura da 1ª Conferência Nacional de Mudanças Climáticas Globais, realizada em São Paulo.

Determinar o quanto o clima já mudou, o quanto as suas características ainda vão se alterar e onde isso ocorrerá é a base para o planejamento de políticas públicas de adaptação aos impactos das mudanças climáticas globais, segundo Paulo Nobre, coordenador geral do BESM e da Rede Brasileira de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais (Rede Clima), na abertura do evento.

“O BESM é um eixo estruturante da pesquisa em mudanças climáticas no Brasil e oferece subsídios para o Programa FAPESP de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais (PFPMCG), para a Rede Clima e para o Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia para Mudanças Climáticas (INCT-MC)”, disse Nobre.

Com o intuito de colaborar com as previsões sobre as consequências do aquecimento global e o consequente aumento na frequência dos eventos extremos, o BESM roda no supercomputador Tupã da Rede Clima/PFPMCG, reunindo fluxos atmosféricos, oceânicos, de superfície e, em breve, químicos. Adquirido pelo Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (MCTI) com apoio da FAPESP, o Tupã está instalado na unidade do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (Inpe) de Cachoeira Paulista

Embora ainda não esteja em sua versão final e completa, o modelo já consegue, por exemplo, reconstituir a ocorrência dos últimos El Niños e estimar o retorno desse fenômeno, explicar as chuvas na Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul e até estimar a variação do gelo no globo de maneira satisfatória.

“Os cenários mais atuais, de 2013, estão disponíveis no supercomputador. Estamos tomando medidas para que o acesso seja disponibilizado ao público em geral até o final do ano”, afirmou Nobre.

Trinta pesquisadores estão diretamente envolvidos no desenvolvimento do BESM e outros 40 estão ligados indiretamente. De acordo com Nobre, esse número deve duplicar em cinco anos e duplicar novamente em 10 anos. “Para tanto, é preciso que cada vez mais jovens doutores integrem esse desafio.”

Nobre ressaltou ainda as graves consequências que o aumento da frequência dos eventos extremos – tais como secas, enchentes e tornados – tem sobre a vida das populações: “Nossas cidades e nossos campos não foram projetados para conviver com esse novo clima, o que torna essencial a entrada do Brasil na modelagem das mudanças climáticas”, disse.

Os quatro componentes

Iracema Cavalcanti, pesquisadora do Inpe, apresentou, durante o primeiro dia da conferência, os resultados já obtidos a partir do componente atmosférico do BESM.

Em comparação com os dados observados, o modelo consegue alcançar boas simulações de variabilidade sazonal (modificações climatológicas das estações), fluxos de umidade, variabilidade interanual (diferença entre anomalias de pressão), variabilidade da precipitação, entre outros. “Ainda há deficiências, como na maioria dos modelos globais. Mas as características gerais estão contempladas”, disse Cavalcanti.

Em relação aos oceanos, não é possível separá-los do que ocorre no modelo atmosférico, daí a modelagem acoplada ser estratégica para o funcionamento eficiente do BESM. A avaliação é de Leo Siqueira, também do Inpe, que apresentou os desafios desse componente.

“Já conseguimos boas representações, mas queremos melhorar as simulações de temperatura dos oceanos, principalmente nos trópicos, e do gelo marinho. Também queremos criar uma discussão saudável sobre qual modelo de gelo terrestre será adotado dentro do BESM”, disse Siqueira.

A modelagem do terceiro componente, superfície, foi apresentada por Marcos Heil Costa, da Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV). “A principal função de um modelo que integra processos superficiais é fornecer fluxos de energia e vapor d’água entre a vegetação e a atmosfera. Isso é o básico. Mas o aprimoramento do sistema, ocorrido ao longo dos últimos anos, permitiu que outros processos fossem incorporados”, afirmou.

Alguns desses processos são: fluxos de radiação, energia e massa; ciclos do carbono e do nitrogênio terrestres; recuperação de áreas abandonadas; incêndios na vegetação natural; culturas agrícolas; vazão e áreas inundadas sazonais; uso do solo por ações humanas (desmatamento); representação específica dos ecossistemas; fertilidade do solo; entre outros.

Química é o quarto e mais recente dos componentes. “Sem um modelo químico, os demais precisam ser constantemente ajustados”, disse Sérgio Correa, pesquisador da Universidade Estadual do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ). Correa está à frente de estudos sobre química atmosférica que permitirão refinar os dados do BESM quando esse componente for acoplado ao modelo – uma das próximas fases previstas.

Colaborações com pesquisadores de instituições estrangeiras e treinamentos são outras estratégias que estão em vigor para melhorar as representações do Brasil e da América do Sul, com alcance também global.

Mais informações sobre a 1ª Conferência Nacional de Mudanças Climáticas Globais: www.fapesp.br/conclima

Arctic sea ice delusions strike the Mail on Sunday and Telegraph (Guardian)

Monday 9 September 2013 04.26 BST

Both UK periodicals focus on short-term noise and ignore the rapid long-term Arctic sea ice death spiral

Arctic iceberg

It’s only a matter of time before we experience an Arctic sea ice-free summer. Photograph: Jenny E Ross/Corbis

When it comes to climate science reporting, the Mail on Sunday and Telegraph are only reliable in the sense that you can rely on them to usually get the science wrong. This weekend’s Arctic sea ice articles fromDavid Rose of the Mail and Hayley Dixon at the Telegraph unfortunately fit that pattern.

Both articles claimed that Arctic sea ice extent grew 60 percent in August 2013 as compared to August 2012. While this factoid may be technically true (though the 60 percent figure appears to be an exaggeration), it’s also largely irrelevant. For one thing, the annual Arctic sea ice minimum occurs in September – we’re not there yet. And while this year’s minimum extent will certainly be higher than last year’s, that’s not the least bit surprising. As University of Reading climate scientist Ed Hawkins noted last year,

“Around 80% of the ~100 scientists at the Bjerknes [Arctic climate science] conference thought that there would be MORE Arctic sea-ice in 2013, compared to 2012.”

Regression toward the Mean

The reason so many climate scientists predicted more ice this year than last is quite simple. There’s a principle in statistics known as “regression toward the mean,” which is the phenomenon that if an extreme value of a variable is observed, the next measurement will generally be less extreme. In other words, we should not often expect to observe records in consecutive years. 2012 shattered the previous record low sea ice extent; hence ‘regression towards the mean’ told us that 2013 would likely have a higher minimum extent.

The amount of Arctic sea ice left at the end of the annual melt season is mainly determined by two factors – natural variability (weather patterns and ocean cycles), and human-caused global warming. The Arctic has lost 75 percent of its summer sea ice volume over the past three decades primarily due to human-caused global warming, but in any given year the weather can act to either preserve more or melt more sea ice. Last year the weather helped melt more ice, while this year the weather helped preserve more ice.

Last year I created an animated graphic called the ‘Arctic Escalator’ that predicted the behavior we’re now seeing from the Mail on Sunday and Telegraph. Every year when the weather acts to preserve more ice than the previous year, we can rely on climate contrarians to claim that Arctic sea ice is “rebounding” or “recovering” and there’s nothing to worry about. Given the likelihood that 2013 would not break the 2012 record, I anticipated that climate contrarians would claim this year as yet another “recovery” year, exactly as the Mail on Sunday and Telegraph have done.

Arctic sea ice extent data

Arctic sea ice extent data, 1980–2012. Data from NSIDC.In short, this year’s higher sea ice extent is merely due to the fact that last year’s minimum extent was record-shattering, and the weather was not as optimal for sea ice loss this summer. However, the long-term trend is one of rapid Arctic sea ice decline, and research has shown this is mostly due to human-caused global warming.

When Will the Arctic be Ice-Free?

Both Rose and Dixon referenced a 2007 BBC article quoting Professor Wieslaw Maslowski saying that the Arctic could be ice free in the summer of 2013. In a 2011 BBC article, he predicted ice-free Arctic seas by 2016 “plus or minus three years.” Other climate scientists believe this prediction is too pessimistic, and expect the first ice-free Arctic summersby 2040.

It’s certainly difficult to predict exactly when an ice-free Arctic summer will occur. While climate research has shown that the Arctic sea ice decline is mostly human-caused, there may also be a natural component involved. The remaining sea ice may abruptly vanish, or it may hold on for a few decades longer. What we do know is that given its rapid decline, an ice-free Arctic appears to be not a question of if, but when.

Continuing Global Warming

Both articles also claimed that “some scientists” are predicting that we’re headed into a period of global cooling. Both named just one scientist making this claim – Professor Tsonis of the University of Wisconsin,whose research shows that slowed global surface warming is only temporary. In fact, Tsonis’ co-author Kyle Swanson wrote,

“What do our results have to do with Global Warming, i.e., the century-scale response to greenhouse gas emissions? VERY LITTLE, contrary to claims that others have made on our behalf.”

Both articles also wrongly claimed that global warming has “paused” since 1997. In reality, global surface temperatures have warmed over the past 15 years, albeit more slowly than during the previous 15 years. It is possible to cherry pick a shorter time frame over which global surface temperatures haven’t warmed, as I illustrated in my other animated ‘Escalator’ graphic.

Average of NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly global surface temperature anomalies from January 1970 through November 2012 (green) with linear trends applied to the timeframes Jan '70 - Oct '77, Apr '77 - Dec '86, Sep '87 - Nov '96, Jun '97 - Dec '02, and Nov '02 - Nov '12.

Average of NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly global surface temperature anomalies from January 1970 through November 2012 (green) with linear trends applied to the timeframes Jan ’70 – Oct ’77, Apr ’77 – Dec ’86, Sep ’87 – Nov ’96, Jun ’97 – Dec ’02, and Nov ’02 – Nov ’12.However, the opposite is true of the overall warming of the planet – Earth has accumulated more heat over the past 15 years than during the prior 15 years.

Global heat content data from Nuccitelli et al. 2013

Global heat accumulation data (ocean heating in blue; land, atmosphere, and ice heating in red) from Nuccitelli et al. (2012). Recent research strongly suggests that the main difference between these two periods comes down to ocean heat absorption. Over the past decade, heat has been transferred more efficiently to the deep oceans, offsetting much of the human-caused warming at the surface. During the previous few decades, the opposite was true, with heat being transferred less efficiently into the oceans, causing more rapid warming at the surface. This is due to ocean cycles, but cycles are cyclical – meaning it’s only a matter of time before another warm cycle occurs, causing accelerating surface warming (as Tsonis’ research shows).

It would be foolhardy for anyone to predict future global cooling, and those few who are so foolish are unwilling to put their money where their mouth is, as my colleague John Abraham found out when challenging one to a bet, only to find the other party unwilling to stand behind it.

Rose and Dixon Invent an IPCC ‘Crisis Meeting’

Both articles also claimed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whose Fifth Assessment Report is due out in a few weeks, has been forced “to hold a crisis meeting.” This claim made both articles even though Ed Hawkins noted,

“I told David Rose on the phone and by email on Thursday about the IPCC process and lack of ‘crisis’ meeting.”

Unfortunately that didn’t stop Rose from inventing this meeting, or Dixon from repeating Rose’s fictional reporting in the Telegraph.

Yes, Humans are Driving Global Warming

Finally, both articles quoted climate scientist Judith Curry claiming that the anticipated IPCC statement of 95 percent confidence that humans are the main cause of the current global warming is unjustified. However, Curry has no expertise in global warming attribution, and has a reputation for exaggerating climate uncertainties. In reality, the confident IPCC statement is based on recent global warming attribution research. More on this once the IPCC report is actually published – any current commentaries on the draft report are premature.

Shoddy Climate Reporting

These two articles at the Mail on Sunday and Telegraph continue the unfortunate trend of shoddy climate reporting in the two periodicals,particularly from David Rose. They suffer from cherry picking short-term data while ignoring the long-term human-caused trends, misrepresenting climate research, repeating long-debunked myths, and inventing IPCC meetings despite being told by climate scientists that these claims are pure fiction.

Based on their history of shoddy reporting, the safest course of action when reading a climate article in the Mail on Sunday or Telegraph is to assume they’re misrepresentations or falsehoods until you can verify the facts therein for yourself.

*   *   *

Global warming? No, actually we’re cooling, claim scientists (Telegraph)

A cold Arctic summer has led to a record increase in the ice cap, leading experts to predict a period of global cooling.

Global warming? No, actually we're cooling, claim scientists

Major climate research centres now accept that there has been a “pause” in global warming since 1997.  Photo: ALAMY

9:55AM BST 08 Sep 2013

There has been a 60 per cent increase in the amount of ocean covered with ice compared to this time last year, the equivalent of almost a million square miles.

In a rebound from 2012’s record low, an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia’s northern shores, days before the annual re-freeze is even set to begin.

The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year, forcing some ships to change their routes.

A leaked report to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) seen by the Mail on Sunday, has led some scientists to claim that the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century.

If correct, it would contradict computer forecasts of imminent catastrophic warming. The news comes several years after the BBC predicted that the arctic would be ice-free by 2013.

The original predictions led to billions being invested in green measures to combat the effects of climate change.

The changing predictions have led to the UN’s climate change’s body holding a crisis meeting, and the IPCC is due to report on the situation in October. A pre-summit meeting will be held later this month.

But the leaked documents are said to show that the governments who fund the IPCC are demanding 1,500 changes to the Fifth Assessment Report – a three-volume study issued every six or seven years – as they claim its current draft does not properly explain the pause.

The extent to which temperatures will rise with carbon dioxide levels and how much of the warming over the past 150 years, a total of 0.8C, is down to human greenhouse gas emissions are key issues in the debate.

The IPCC says it is “95 per cent confident” that global warming has been caused by humans – up from 90 per cent in 2007 – according to the draft report.

However, US climate expert Professor Judith Curry has questioned how this can be true as that rather than increasing in confidence, “uncertainty is getting bigger” within the academic community.

Long-term cycles in ocean temperature, she said, suggest the world may be approaching a period similar to that from 1965 to 1975, when there was a clear cooling trend.

At the time some scientists forecast an imminent ice age.

Professor Anastasios Tsonis, of the University of Wisconsin, said: “We are already in a cooling trend, which I think will continue for the next 15 years at least. There is no doubt the warming of the 1980s and 1990s has stopped.”

The IPCC is said to maintain that their climate change models suggest a pause of 15 years can be expected. Other experts agree that natural cycles cannot explain all of the recorded warming.

Related Articles

Anthropology and the Anthropocene (Anthropology News)

Anthropology and Environment Society

September 2013

Amelia Moore

“The Anthropocene” is a label that is gaining popularity in the natural sciences.  It refers to the pervasive influence of human activities on planetary systems and biogeochemical processes.   Devised by Earth scientists, the term is poised to formally end the Holocene Epoch as the geological categorization for Earth’s recent past, present, and indefinite future.  The term is also poised to become the informal slogan of a revitalized environmental movement that has been plagued by popular indifference in recent years.

Climate change is the most well known manifestation of anthropogenic global change, but it is only one example of an Anthropocene event.  Other examples listed by the Earth sciences include biodiversity loss, changes in planetary nutrient cycling, deforestation, the hole in the ozone layer, fisheries decline, and the spread of invasive species.  This change is said to stem from the growth of the human population and the spread of resource intensive economies since the Industrial Revolution (though the initial boundary marker is in dispute with some scientists arguing for the Post-WWII era and others for the advent of agriculture as the critical tipping point).  Whatever the boundary, the Anthropocene signifies multiple anthropological opportunities.

What stance should we, as anthropologists, take towards the Anthropocene? I argue that there are two (and likely more), equally valid approaches to the Anthropocene: anthropology in the Anthropocene and anthropology of the Anthropocene.  Anthropology in the Anthropocene already exists in the form of climate ethnography and work that documents the lived experience of global environmental change.  Arguably, ethnographies of protected areas and transnational conservation strategies exemplify this field as well.  Anthropology in the Anthropocene is characterized by an active concern for the detrimental affects of anthropogenesis on populations and communities that have been marginalized to bear the brunt of global change impacts or who have been haphazardly caught up in global change solution strategies.  This work is engaged with environmental justice and oriented towards political action.

Anthropology of the Anthropocene is much smaller and less well known than anthropology in the Anthropocene, but it will be no less crucial.  Existing work in this vein includes those who take a critical stance towards climate science and politics as social processes with social consequences.  Beyond deconstruction, these critical scholars investigate what forms scientific and political assemblages create and how they participate in remaking the world anew.  Other existing research in this mode interrogates the idea of biodiversity and the historical and cultural context for the notion of anthropogenesis itself.  In the near future, we will see more work that can enquire into both the sociocultural and socioecological implications and manifestations of Anthropocene discourse, practice and logic.

I have only created cursory sketches of anthropology in the Anthropocene and anthropology of the Anthropocene here.  However, these modes are not at all mutually exclusive, and they should inspire many possibilities for future work.  The centrality of anthropos, the idea of the human, within the logics of the Anthropocene is an invitation for anthropology to renew its engagements with the natural sciences in research collaborations and as the object of research, especially the ecological and Earth sciences.

For starters, we should consider the implications of the Anthropocene idea for our understandings of history and collectivity.  If the natural world is finally gaining recognition within the authoritative sciences as intimately interconnected with human life such that these two worlds cease to be separate arenas of thought and action or take on different salience, then both the Humanities and the natural sciences need to devise more appropriate modes of analysis that can speak to emergent socioecologies.  This has begun in anthropology with some recent works of environmental health studies, political ecology, and multispecies ethnography, but is still in its infancy.

In terms of opportunities for legal and political engagement, the Anthropocene signifies possibilities for reconceptualizing environmentalism, conservation and development.  Anthropologists should be cognizant of new design paradigms and models for organizing socioecological collectives from the urban to the small island to the riparian.  We should also be on the lookout for new political collaborations and publics creating conversations utilizing multiple avenues for communication in the academic realm and beyond.  Emergent asymmetries in local and transnational markets and the formation of new multi-sited assemblages of governance should be of special importance.

In terms of science, the Anthropocene signals new horizons for studying and participating in global change science.  The rise of interdisciplinary socioecology, the biosciences of coupled natural and human complexity, geoengineering and the biotech interest in de-extinction are just a sampling of important transformations in research practices, research objects, and the shifting boundaries between the lab and the field.  Ongoing scientific reorientation will continue to yield new arguments about emergent forms of life that will participate in the creation of future assemblages, publics, and movements.

I would also like to caution against potentially unhelpful uses of the Anthropocene idea.  The term should not become a brand signifying a specific style of anthropological research.  It should not gloss over rigid solidifications of time, space, the human, or life.  We should not celebrate creativity in the Anthropocene while ignoring instances of stark social differentiation and capital accumulation, just as we should not focus on Anthropocene assemblages as only hegemonic in the oppressive sense.   Further, we should be cautious with our utilization of the crisis rhetoric surrounding events in the Anthropocene, recognizing that crisis for some can be turned into multiple forms of opportunity for others.  Finally, we must admit the possibility that the Anthropocene may not succeed in gaining lasting traction through formal designation or popularization, and we should not overstate its significance by assuming its universal acceptance.

In the next year, the Section News Column of the Anthropology and Environment Society will explore news, events, projects, and arguments from colleagues and students experimenting with various framings of the Anthropocene in addition to its regular content.  If you would like to contribute to this column, please contact Amelia Moore at a.moore4@miami.edu.

– See more at: http://www.anthropology-news.org/index.php/2013/09/09/anthropology-and-the-anthropocene/#sthash.vBo1RtuY.dpuf

Climate Change’s Silver Bullet? Our Interview With One Of The World’s Top Geoengineering Scholars (Climate Progress)

BY ARI PHILLIPS ON SEPTEMBER 6, 2013 AT 1:10 PM

Clive HamiltonMELBOURNE, Australia — Since coming to Australia almost two months ago I’ve heard about Clive Hamilton in the process of reporting just about every story I’ve done. Then I picked up his new book Earthmasters: The Dawn of the Age of Climate Engineeringand now I see what all the fuss is about.

In all of the debates over how to address climate change, climate engineering — or geoengineering — is among the most contentious. It involves large-scale manipulation of the Earth’s climate using grand technological interventions, such as fertilizing the oceans with iron to absorb carbon dioxide or releasing sulfur into the atmosphere to reduce radiation. While its proponents call geoengineering a silver bullet for our climate woes, its skeptics are far more critical. Joe Romm, for one, likens geoengineering to a dangerous course of chemotherapy and radiation to treat a condition curable through diet and exercise — or, in this case, emissions reduction.

According to the cover of Hamilton’s new book, “The potential risks are enormous. It is messing with nature on a scale we’ve never seen before, and it’s attracting a flood of interest from scientists, venture capitalists and oil companies.”

Hamilton is an Australian author and public intellectual. Until 2008 he was the Executive Director of The Australia Institute, a progressive think tank that he founded in 1993. Now he’s Professor of Public Ethics at the Centre for Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics, a joint center of Charles Stuart University and the University of Melbourne.

His books include Requiem for a Species: Why we resist the truth about climate changeScorcher: The dirty truth about climate change and Growth Fetishamongst others.

Hamilton’s next book will be about the anthropocene — a new geologic era in which human activities have had a significant impact on the Earth’s ecosystems. He took some time to talk with me about this new era, the future of geoengineering and what it all means for humanity. This interview has been edited for clarity and length.

How has the environmental community responded to your book on geoengineering?

Cover-image-Yale-UP3

I remember back in late 1990s around Kyoto there was a great deal of resistance amongst environmentalists and climate activists, including myself, against any talk of adaptation. It was seen to be a capitulation to a kind of defeatism that we ought not to be talking about adaptation because that means that mitigation has failed. Eventually I think we all came around to view that some climate change is going to happen and therefore adaptation has to be considered. It’s better to have seat at the table, as it were, when adaptation is being discussed.

I think we’re in the same stage now with geoengineering. Most environmentalists don’t want to know about it. Most climate activists don’t want to talk about it. There is a sense that in doing so you are conceding that it could well be possible that geoengineering will be necessary because the world community will continue to fail, perhaps even more egregiously, at responding to scientific warnings.

But I wrote the book because I became aware in writing my previous book that the genie was out of the bottle: geoengineering was going to grow in importance. Therefore, climate campaigners and environmental groups sooner or later are going to have to engage in the issue. It’s a question of whether they start now or leave it for another five years, at which point the lobby backing geoengineering will be much more powerful and will have had an opportunity to frame it more inflexibly in the media and in broader public mind.

Did you come across any big surprises while writing the book?

There were a couple of big surprises. One was the extent of the geoengineering lobby and the links between the scientists and the investors. I developed a much stronger sense of the likelihood of a powerful geoengineering constituency emerging, which would — if it were not countered by a skeptical community of thinkers and campaigners — essentially take control of whole agenda. Plotting those links and laying them out was something that I go into quite a lot of detail over. At the same time it stimulated me to think about the military-industrial complex, the famous lobby group that help such sway in the U.S. in the middle of the 20th century.

One thing I noticed while doing this research and looking at scientists involved was the density of the linkages with the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. So I investigated further and thought it’s really quite astonishing the extent to which many, if not most, prominent scientific researchers in geoengineering in the U.S. worked at Livermore or have close links with people there now or those who used to work there.

Then when I read Hugh Gusterson’s book on Livermore and it’s role in the cold war and nuclear weapons development, I started to think much more carefully about the type of mindset that is especially drawn to geoengineering as a technological response to global warming. I think it’s quite alarming in its implications. That lead me to further think about the geostrategic implications of climate engineering, which is something that’s received almost no attention, but we do know that people in the military and related strategic communities are starting to think about geoengineering and what it would mean for international relations and conflict.

What about the potential for financial gain?

A noble desire to save the world from climate change will attract less noble intentions. That’s just the way of the world. Never let a good crisis go to waste. Already we’re seeing it with Canadian oil sands billionaire Murray Edwards investing in geoengineering technologies.

I spend quite a bit of time talking about Bill Gates in the book. Earlier this year, I was talking about the scientific entrepreneurial lobby group that was emerging during a debate with Peter Singer (another Australian philosopher) and I mentioned Bill Gates. Singer said, “Well what’s wrong with Bill Gates? He’s well motivated. He does a lot of good charity work. If you’re going to have millionaires investing in geoengineering then Bill Gates would be one of the first.”

I made the point that yes, Bill Gates is now in philanthropic mode, and The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation does praiseworthy work, but it’s not Bill Gates’ motives I’m worried about; it’s his worldview. That Silicon Valley, ‘we’ve-got-an-app-for-that’ kind of understanding. Joe Romm (Editor of Climate Progress) has been very critical of Gates for his dissing of renewable energy technology. Gates described solar energy as cute.

So Gates is drawn to big, new, shiny technological responses that clever people dream up. You know, brainstorming over pizza and coke. That’s where he comes from and that’s how he thinks. It’s one thing to think about computers and software that way, but it’s a completely different matter to think about the earth as a whole as in need of a snazzy new app that will solve the problem. I think that’s an extremely dangerous way to understand it for all sorts of reasons.

Perhaps the most important of which is that the climate change problem is not a technological one. It’s a social and political one. The more people focus on techno-fixes, the more they distract us from the real problems, which are the social and political difficulties of responding to climate change. We have the technology and have had it for many years. So arguing that the blockage is the absence of technology is extremely unhelpful and plays into the hands of the fossil fuel lobby.

In the book you say the slippery slope to a techno-fix promises a substitute for the slippery slope to revolution.

Revolutions take all different forms of course, from the industrial revolution to Tahrir Square to the cultural revolution of the 60s and 70s, and it’s more along the lines of the latter that I was thinking of, and into which new forms of climate activism can feed. There’s often a sort of terror in environmental groups that if they do something radical or outrageous, they’ll alienate mom and dad in the suburbs.

But social movements that have radically changed the way our world works — think of the woman’s movement — have frequently started out being rancorous and difficult and attracting the derision of the conservative press and politicians. And indeed, mystifying and often alienating people living in the suburbs or high-rises. If people have to be shocked and outraged before they come around to seeing that some fundamental transformation is necessary, then so be it. I think that there’s a level of fear and complacency and unwillingness to shift to change on the part of our societies, and some kind of circuit breaker is necessary.

You talk about the acceptance of the “solution” of geoengineering even by people who don’t seem to think climate change is a problem in the first place.

That’s one of the, on the face of it, mystifying aspects of the geoengineering debate. Why conservative think tanks like The American Enterprise Institute, The Cato Institute and even The Heartland Institute, which have for years worked hard to deny climate science and block all measures to reduce carbon emissions, have come out in favor of geoengineering.

What it shows us is that the debate over climate change and the role of the deniers is not about the science. They want to make it about the science because that gives it an air of legitimacy, but it’s really about fundamental cultural and political values. So if geoengineering is the solution then they’re happy to concede that there’s a problem because geoengineering is a big, technological, macho, system-justifying response to climate change. And that’s the kind of response that fits with their political orientation.

How does the “American Way of Life” factor into all of this?

Already we’re seeing what authorities in the U.S. need to do in order to protect people from massive hurricanes and monster wildfires and frequent floods. As the effects of climate change become even more severe we’ll see nations like the U.S. that are in a position to adapt start spending billions of dollars dong so.

And of course, the more the climate deniers persuade politicians that hurricanes and wildfires aren’t due to climate change, the less responsive authorities are likely to be and the more people will die, in effect. Eventually it will be impossible to continue to pretend that mitigation is not the first best option. It might take five years, it might take ten, let’s hope it doesn’t take twenty.

The sort of tragedy of all this is that if the world had become serious ten or so years ago that cost would have been vastly smaller than it’s going to be. But you know that’s in a perfect world where human beings are rational and take reasonable measures to protect themselves from the warnings of scientists. But we now know that the enlightenment conception of human beings as rational creatures who assess the evidence and take measures to protect themselves from harm, that has now collapsed before us. We can no longer maintain that belief.

That feeds into this idea of the anthropocene and the ethical implications of living in a world with climate change.

I am writing a book about the anthropocene because it seems to me that when human beings become so powerful that they transform the fundamental cycles and processes that govern the evolution of the earth itself that we’re entering into an era, or we’ve reached an event, that’s as significant as the industrial revolution, or even the process of civilization itself.

It causes us to rethink pretty much everything. It certainly causes us to rethink what the relationship of human beings is to the planet, but in a harder way, what is a human being. The sort of modern conception of what a human being is is an isolated ego existing inside a body. And most of us think that’s just what we are. But in fact that’s a very recent and culturally specific understanding of what a human being is. And it’s the conception of a human being that’s consistent with an advanced consumer society.

Collectively though, we are the kind of creatures, like certain types of microbes, that can completely transform the nature of the planet on which we live. If this is so, then it causes us to rethink who we are and what the place of this strange, clever creature is on planet earth.

We can no longer think of the Earth as the passive and unresponsive backdrop to the human drama where we play out our parts in a kind of Shakespearean play and not worry about the backdrop. We now find that the backdrop, the stage scenery, has entered into the play and is disrupting the whole proceedings.

Something very profound has happened. Human history, which we think of as only being a few thousand years old and is the history of human actions, has converged with geologic history, which we always thought of as operating in a very distinct domain having nothing to do with us. But now we find that our history affects the history of the earth.

If there is no more human history distinct from earth history, then what does that mean?

The Myth of ‘Environmental Catastrophism’ (Monthly Review)

Between October 2010 and April 2012, over 250,000 people, including 133,000 children under five, died of hunger caused by drought in Somalia. Millions more survived only because they received food aid. Scientists at the UK Met Centre have shown that human-induced climate change made this catastrophe much worse than it would otherwise have been.1

This is only the beginning: the United Nations’ 2013 Human Development Report says that without coordinated global action to avert environmental disasters, especially global warming, the number of people living in extreme poverty could increase by up to 3 billion by 2050.2 Untold numbers of children will die, killed by climate change.

If a runaway train is bearing down on children, simple human solidarity dictates that anyone who sees it should shout a warning, that anyone who can should try to stop it. It is difficult to imagine how anyone could disagree with that elementary moral imperative.

And yet some do. Increasingly, activists who warn that the world faces unprecedented environmental danger are accused of catastrophism—of raising alarms that do more harm than good. That accusation, a standard feature of right-wing attacks on the environmental movement, has recently been advanced by some left-wing critics as well. While they are undoubtedly sincere, their critique of so-called environmental catastrophism does not stand up to scrutiny.

From the Right…

The word “catastrophism” originated in nineteenth-century geology, in the debate between those who believed all geological change had been gradual and those who believed there had been episodes of rapid change. Today, the word is most often used by right-wing climate change deniers for whom it is a synonym for “alarmism.”

  • The Heartland Institute: “Climate Catastrophism Picking Up Again in the U.S. and Across the World.”3
  • A right-wing German blog: “The Climate Catastrophism Cult.”4
  • The Australian journal Quadrant: “The Chilling Costs of Climate Catastrophism.”5

Examples could be multiplied. As environmental historian Franz Mauelshagen writes, “In climate denialist circles, the word ‘climate catastrophe’ has become synonymous with ‘climate lie,’ taking the anthropogenic green house effect for a scam.”6

Those who hold such views like to call themselves “climate change skeptics,” but a more accurate term is “climate science deniers.” While there are uncertainties about the speed of change and its exact effects, there is no question that global warming is driven by greenhouse-gas emissions caused by human activity, and that if business as usual continues, temperatures will reach levels higher than any seen since before human beings evolved. Those who disagree are not skeptical, they are denying the best scientific evidence and analysis available.

The right labels the scientific consensus “catastrophism” to belittle environmentalism, and to stifle consideration of measures to delay or prevent the crisis. The real problem, they imply, is not the onrushing train, but the people who are yelling “get off the track!” Leaving the track would disrupt business as usual, and that is to be avoided at all costs.

…And From the Left

Until very recently, “catastrophism” as a political expression was pretty much the exclusive property of conservatives. When it did occur in left-wing writing, it referred to economic debates, not ecology. But in 2007 two quite different left-wing voices almost simultaneously adopted “catastrophism” as a pejorative term for radical ideas about climate change they disagreed with.

The most prominent was the late Alexander Cockburn, who in 2007 was writing regularly forThe Nation and coediting the newsletter CounterPunch. To the shock of many of his admirers, he declared that “There is still zero empirical evidence that anthropogenic production of CO2 is making any measurable contribution to the world’s present warming trend,” and that “the human carbon footprint is of zero consequence.”7 Concern about climate change was, he wrote, the result of a conspiracy “between the Greenhouser fearmongers and the nuclear industry, now largely owned by oil companies.”8

Like critics on the right, Cockburn charged that the left was using climate change to sneak through reforms it could not otherwise win: “The left has bought into environmental catastrophism because it thinks that if it can persuade the world that there is indeed a catastrophe, then somehow the emergency response will lead to positive developments in terms of social and environmental justice.”9

While Cockburn’s assault on “environmental catastrophism” was shocking, his arguments did not add anything new to the climate debate. They were the same criticisms we had long heard from right-wing deniers, albeit with leftish vocabulary.

That was not the case with Leo Panitch and Colin Leys. These distinguished Marxist scholars are by no means deniers. They began their preface to the 2007 Socialist Register by noting that “environmental problems might be so severe as to potentially threaten the continuation of anything that might be considered tolerable human life,” and insisting that “the speed of development of globalized capitalism, epitomized by the dramatic acceleration of climate change, makes it imperative for socialists to deal seriously with these issues now.”

But then they wrote: “Nonetheless, it is important to try to avoid an anxiety-driven ecological catastrophism, parallel to the kind of crisis-driven economic catastrophism that announces the inevitable demise of capitalism.”10 They went on to argue that capitalism’s “dynamism and innovativeness” might enable it to use “green commerce” to escape environmental traps.

The problem with the Panitch–Leys formulation is that the threat of ecological catastrophe isnot “parallel” to the view that capitalism will destroy itself. The desire to avoid the kind of mechanical determinism that has often characterized Marxist politics, where every crisis was proclaimed to be the final battle, led these thoughtful writers to confuse two very different kinds of catastrophe.

The idea that capitalism will inevitably face an insurmountable economic crisis and collapse is based on a misunderstanding of Marxist economic theory. While economic crises are endemic to capitalism, the system can always continue—only class struggle, only a social revolution, can overthrow capitalism and end the crisis cycle.

Large-scale environmental damage is caused by our destructive economic system, but its effectis the potentially irreversible disruption of essential natural systems. The most dramatic example is global warming: recent research shows that the earth is now warmer than at any time in the past 6,000 years, and temperatures are rising much faster than at any time since the last Ice Age. Arctic ice and the Greenland ice sheet are disappearing faster than predicted, raising the specter of flooding in coastal areas where more than a billion people live. Extreme weather events, such as giant storms, heat waves, and droughts are becoming ever more frequent. So many species are going extinct that many scientists call it a mass extinction event, comparable to the time 66 million years ago when 75 percent of all species, including the dinosaurs, were wiped out.

As the editors of Monthly Review wrote in reply to Socialist Register, if these trends continue, “we will be faced with a different world—one in which life on the planet will be massively degraded on a scale not seen for tens of millions of years.”11 To call this “anxiety-driven ecological catastrophism, parallel to…economic catastrophism” is to equate an abstract error in economic theory with some of the strongest conclusions of modern science.

A New ‘Catastrophism’ Critique

Now a new essay, provocatively titled “The Politics of Failure Have Failed,” offers a different and more sweeping left-wing critique of “environmental catastrophism.” Author Eddie Yuen is associated with the Pacifica radio program Against the Grain, and is on the editorial board of the journal Capitalism Nature Socialism.

His paper is part of a broader effort to define and critique a body of political thought calledCatastrophism, in a book by that title.12 In the book’s introduction, Sasha Lilley offers this definition:

Catastrophism presumes that society is headed for a collapse, whether economic, ecological, social, or spiritual. This collapse is frequently, but not always, regarded as a great cleansing, out of which a new society will be born. Catastrophists tend to believe that an ever-intensified rhetoric of disaster will awaken the masses from their long slumber—if the mechanical failure of the system does not make such struggles superfluous. On the left, catastrophism veers between the expectation that the worse things become, the better they will be for radical fortunes, and the prediction that capitalism will collapse under its own weight. For parts of the right, worsening conditions are welcomed, with the hope they will trigger divine intervention or allow the settling of scores for any modicum of social advance over the last century.

A political category that includes both the right and the left—and that encompasses people whose concerns might be economic, ecological, social, or spiritual—is, to say the least, unreasonably broad. It is difficult to see any analytical value in a definition that lumps together anarchists, fascists, Christian fundamentalists, right-wing conspiracy nuts, pre–1914 socialists, peak-oil theorists, obscure Trotskyist groups, and even Mao Zedong.

The definition of catastrophism becomes even more problematic in Yuen’s essay.

One Of These Things Is Not Like The Others…

Years ago, the children’s television program Sesame Street would display four items—three circles and a square, three horses and a chair, and so on—while someone sang, “One of these things is not like the others, One of these things doesn’t belong.

I thought of that when I read Yuen’s essay.

While the book’s scope is broad, most of it focuses, as Yuen writes, on “instrumental, spurious, and sometimes maniacal versions of catastrophism—including rightwing racial paranoia, religious millenarianism, liberal panics over fascism, leftist fetishization of capitalist collapse, capitalist invocation of the ‘shock doctrine’ and pop culture cliché.”

But as Yuen admits in his first paragraph, environmentalism is a very different matter, because we are in “what is unquestionably a genuine catastrophic moment in human and planetary history…. Of all of the forms of catastrophic discourse on offer, the collapse of ecological systems is unique in that it is definitively verified by a consensus within the scientific community…. It is absolutely urgent to address this by effectively and rapidly changing the direction of human society.”

If the science is clear, if widespread ecological collapse unquestionably faces us unless action is taken, why is this topic included in a book devoted to criticizing false ideas? Does it make sense to use the same term for people who believe in an imaginary train crash and for people who are trying to stop a real crash from happening?

The answer, although he does not say so, is that Yuen is using a different definition than the one Lilley gave in her introduction. Her version used the word for the belief that some form of catastrophe will have positive results—that capitalism will collapse from internal contradictions, that God will punish all sinners, that peak oil or industrial collapse will save the planet. Yuen uses the same word for the idea that environmentalists should alert people to the threat of catastrophic environmental change and try to mobilize them to prevent or minimize it.

Thus, when he refers to “a shrill note of catastrophism” in the work of James Hansen, perhaps the world’s leading climate scientist, he is not challenging the accuracy of Hansen’s analysis, but only the “narrative strategy” of clearly stating the probable results of continuing business as usual.

Yuen insists that “the veracity of apocalyptic claims about ecological collapse are separate from their effects on social, political, and economic life.” Although “the best evidence points to cascading environmental disaster,” in his view it is self-defeating to tell people that. He makes two arguments, which we can label “practical” and “principled.”

His practical argument is that by talking about “apocalyptic scenarios” environmentalists have made people more apathetic, less likely to fight for progressive change. His principledargument is that exposing and campaigning to stop tendencies towards environmental collapse has “damaging and rightward-leaning effects”—it undermines the left, promotes reactionary policies and strengthens the ruling class.

In my opinion, he is wrong on both counts.

The Truth Shall Make You Apathetic?

In Yuen’s view, the most important question facing people who are concerned about environmental destruction is: “what narrative strategies are most likely to generate effective and radical social movements?”

He is vague about what “narrative strategies” might work, but he is very firm about what does not. He argues that environmentalists have focused on explaining the environmental crisis and warning of its consequences in the belief that this will lead people to rise up and demand change, but this is a fallacy. In reality, “once convinced of apocalyptic scenarios, many Americans become more apathetic.”

Given such a sweeping assertion, it is surprising to find that the only evidence Yuen offers is a news release describing one academic paper, based on a U.S. telephone survey conducted in 2008, that purported to show that “more informed respondents both feel less personally responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming.”13

Note first that being “more informed” is not the same as being “convinced of apocalyptic scenarios” or being bombarded with “increasingly urgent appeals about fixed ecological tipping points.” On the face of it, this study does not appear to contribute to our understanding of the effects of “catastrophism.”

What’s more, reading the original paper reveals that the people described as “more informed” were self-reporting. If they said they were informed, that was accepted, and no one asked if they were listening to climate scientists or to conservative talk radio. That makes the paper’s conclusion meaningless.

Later in his essay, Yuen correctly criticizes some environmentalists and scientists who “speak of ‘everyone’ as a unified subject.” But here he accepts as credible a study that purports to show how all Americans respond to information about climate change, regardless of class, gender, race, or political leanings.

The problem with such undifferentiated claims is shown in a 2011 study that examined the impact of Americans’ political opinions on their feelings about climate change. It found that liberals and Democrats who report being well-informed are more worried about climate change, while conservatives and Republicans who report being well-informed are less worried.14 Obviously the two groups mean very different things by “well-informed.”

Even if we ignore that, the study Yuen cites is a one-time snapshot—it does not tells us what radicals really need to know, which is how things are changing. For that, a more useful survey is one that scientists at Yale University and George Mason University have conducted seven times since 2008 to show shifts in U.S. public opinion.15 Based on answers to questions about their opinions, respondents are categorized according to their attitude towards global warming. The surveys show:

  • The number of people identified as “Disengaged” or “Cautious”—those we might call apathetic or uncertain—has varied very little, accounting for between 31 percent and 35 percent of the respondents every time.
  • The categories “Dismissive” or “Doubtful”—those who lean towards denial—increased between 2008 and 2010. Since then, those groups have shrunk back almost to the 2008 level.
  • In parallel, the combined “Concerned” and “Alarmed” groups shrank between 2008 and 2010, but have since largely recovered. In September 2012—before Hurricane Sandy!—there were more than twice as many Americans in these two categories as in Dismissive/Doubtful.

Another study, published in the journal Climatic Change, used seventy-four independent surveys conducted between 2002 and 2011 to create a Climate Change Threat Index (CCTI)—a measure of public concern about climate change—and showed how it changed in response to public events. It found that public concern about climate change reached an all-time high in 2006–2007, when the Al Gore documentary An Inconvenient Truth was seen in theaters by millions of people and won an Academy Award.

The authors conclude: “Our results…show that advocacy efforts produce substantial changes in public perceptions related to climate change. Specifically, the film An Inconvenient Truth and the publicity surrounding its release produced a significant positive jump in the CCTI.”16

This directly contradicts Yuen’s view that more information about climate change causes Americans to become more apathetic. There is no evidence of a long-term increase in apathy or decrease in concern—and when scientific information about climate change reached millions of people, the result was not apathy but a substantial increase in support for action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

‘The Two Greatest Myths’

Yuen says environmentalists have deluged Americans with catastrophic warnings, and this strategy has produced apathy, not action. Writing of establishment politicians who make exactly the same claim, noted climate change analyst Joseph Romm says, “The two greatest myths about global warming communications are 1) constant repetition of doomsday messages has been a major, ongoing strategy and 2) that strategy doesn’t work and indeed is actually counterproductive!” Contrary to liberal mythology, the North American public has not been exposed to anything even resembling the first claim. Romm writes,

The broad American public is exposed to virtually no doomsday messages, let alone constant ones, on climate change in popular culture (TV and the movies and even online)…. The major energy companies bombard the airwaves with millions and millions of dollars of repetitious pro-fossil-fuel ads. The environmentalists spend far, far less money…. Environmentalists when they do appear in popular culture, especially TV, are routinely mocked…. It is total BS that somehow the American public has been scared and overwhelmed by repeated doomsday messaging into some sort of climate fatigue.17

The website Daily Climate, which tracks U.S. news stories about climate change, says coverage peaked in 2009, during the Copenhagen talks—but then it “fell off the map,” dropping 30 percent in 2010 and another 20 percent in 2011. In 2012, despite widespread droughts and Hurricane Sandy, news coverage fell another 2 percent. The decline in editorial interest was even more dramatic—in 2012 newspapers published fewer than half as many editorials about climate change as they did in 2009.18

It should be noted that these shifts occurred in the framework of very limited news coverage of climate issues. As a leading media analyst notes, “relative to other issues like health, medicine, business, crime and government, media attention to climate change remains a mere blip.”19 Similarly, a British study describes coverage of climate change in newspapers there as “lamentably thin”—a problem exacerbated by the fact that much of the coverage consists of “worryingly persistent climate denial stories.” The author concludes drily: “The limited coverage is unlikely to have convinced readers that climate change is a serious problem warranting immediate, decisive and potentially costly action.”20

Given Yuen’s concern that Americans do not recognize the seriousness of environmental crises, it is surprising how little he says about the massive fossil-fuel-funded disinformation campaigns that have confused and distorted media reporting. I can find just four sentences on the subject in his 9,000-word text, and not one that suggests denialist campaigns might have helped undermine efforts to build a climate change movement.

On the contrary, he downplays the influence of “the well-funded climate denial lobby,” by claiming that “far more corporate and elite energy has gone toward generating anxiety about global warming,” and that “mainstream climate science is much better funded.” He provides no evidence for either statement.

Of course, the fossil-fuel lobby is not the only force working to undermine public concern about climate change. It is also important to recognize the impact of Obama’s predictable unwillingness to confront the dominant forces in U.S. capitalism, and of the craven failure of mainstream environmentalist groups and NGOs to expose and challenge the Democrats’ anti-environmental policies.

With fossil-fuel denialists on one side, and Obama’s pale-green cheerleaders on the other, activists who want to get out the truth have barely been heard. In that context, it makes little sense to blame environmentalists for sabotaging environmentalism.

The Truth Will Help the Right?

Halfway through his essay, Yuen abruptly changes direction, leaving the practical argument behind and raising his principled concern. He now argues that what he calls catastrophism leads people to support reactionary policies and promotes “the most authoritarian solutions at the state level.” Focusing attention on what he agrees is a “cascading environmental disaster” is dangerous because it “disables the left but benefits the right and capital.” He says, “Increased awareness of environmental crisis will not likely translate into a more ecological lifestyle, let alone an activist orientation against the root causes of environmental degradation. In fact, right-wing and nationalist environmental politics have much more to gain from an embrace of catastrophism.”

Yuen says that many environmentalists, including scientists, “reflexively overlook class divisions,” and so do not realize that “some business and political elites feel that they can avoid the worst consequences of the environmental crisis, and may even be able to benefit from it.” Yuen apparently thinks those elites are right—while the insurance industry is understandably worried about big claims, he says, “the opportunities for other sectors of capitalism are colossal in scope.”

He devotes much of the rest of his essay to describing the efforts of pro-capitalist forces, conservative and liberal, to use concern about potential environmental disasters to promote their own interests, ranging from emissions trading schemes to military expansion to Malthusian attacks on the world’s poorest people. “The solution offered by global elites to the catastrophe is a further program of austerity, belt-tightening, and sacrifice, the brunt of which will be borne by the world’s poor.”

Some of this is overstated. His claim that “Malthusianism is at the core of most environmental discourse,” reflects either a very limited view of environmentalism or an excessively broad definition of Malthusianism. And he seems to endorse David Noble’s bizarre theory that public concern about global warming has been engineered by a corporate conspiracy to promote carbon trading schemes.21 Nevertheless he is correct that the ruling class will do its best to profit from concern about climate change, while simultaneously offloading the costs onto the world’s poorest people.

The question is, who is he arguing with? This book says it aims to “spur debate among radicals,” but none of this is new or controversial for radicals. The insight that the interests of the ruling class are usually opposed to the interests of the rest of us has been central to left-wing thought since before Marx was born. Capitalists always try to turn crises to their advantage no matter who gets hurt, and they always try to offload the costs of their crises onto the poor and oppressed.

What needs to be proved is not that pro-capitalist forces are trying to steer the environmental movement into profitable channels, and not that many sincere environmentalists have backward ideas about the social and economic causes of ecological crises. Radicals who are active in green movements know those things perfectly well. What needs to be proved is Yuen’s view that warning about environmental disasters and campaigning to prevent them has “damaging and rightward-leaning effects” that are so severe that radicals cannot overcome them.

But no proof is offered.

What is particularly disturbing about his argument is that he devotes pages to describing the efforts of reactionaries to misdirect concern about climate change—and none to the efforts of radical environmentalists to counter those forces. Earlier in his essay, he mentioned that “environmental and climate justice perspectives are steadily gaining traction in internal environmental debates,” but those thirteen words are all he has to say on the subject.

He says nothing about the historic 2010 Cochabamba Conference, where 30,000 environmental activists from 140 countries warned that if greenhouse gas emissions are not stopped, “the damages caused to our Mother Earth will be completely irreversible”—a statement Yuen would doubtless label “catastrophist.” Far from succumbing to apathy or reactionary policies, the participants explicitly rejected market solutions, identified capitalism as the cause of the crisis, and outlined a radical program to transform the global economy.

He is equally silent about the campaign against the fraudulent “green economy” plan adopted at last year’s Rio+20 conference. One of the principal organizers of that opposition is La Via Campesina, the world’s largest organization of peasants and farmers, which warns that the world’s governments are “propagating the same capitalist model that caused climate chaos and other deep social and environmental crises.”

His essay contains not a word about Idle No More, or Occupy, or the Indigenous-led fight against Canada’s tar sands, or the anti-fracking and anti-coal movements. By omitting them, Yuen leaves the false impression that the climate movement is helpless to resist reactionary forces.

Contrary to Yuen’s title, the effort to build a movement to save the planet has not failed. Indeed, Catastrophism was published just four months before the largest U.S. climate change demonstration ever!

The question before radicals is not what “narrative strategy” to adopt, but rather, how will we relate to the growing environmental movement? How will we support its goals while strengthening the forces that see the need for more radical solutions?

What Must Be Done?

Yuen opposes attempts to build a movement around rallies, marches, and other mass protests to get out the truth and to demand action against environmental destruction. He says that strategy worked in the 1960s, when Americans were well-off and naïve, but cannot be replicated in today’s “culture of atomized cynicism.”

Like many who know that decade only from history books or as distant memories, Yuen foreshortens the experience: he knows about the mass protests and dissent late in the decade, but ignores the many years of educational work and slow movement building in a deeply reactionary and racist time. It is not predetermined that the campaign against climate change will take as long as those struggles, or take similar forms, but the real experience of the 1960s should at least be a warning against premature declarations of failure.

Yuen is much less explicit about what he thinks would be an effective strategy, but he cites as positive examples the efforts of some to promote “a bottom-up and egalitarian transition” by:

ever-increasing numbers of people who are voluntarily engaging in intentional communities, sustainability projects, permaculture and urban farming, communing and mil­itant resistance to consumerism…we must consider the alterna­tive posed by the highly imaginative Italian left of the twentieth century. The explosively popular Slow Food movement was origi­nally built on the premise that a good life can be had not through compulsive excess but through greater conviviality and a shared commonwealth.

Compare that to this list of essential tasks, prepared recently by Pablo Solón, a leading figure in the global climate justice movement:

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a level that avoids catastrophe, we need to:

* Leave more than two-thirds of the fossil fuel reserves under the soil;

* Stop the exploitation of tar sands, shale gas and coal;

* Support small, local, peasant and indigenous community farming while we dismantle big agribusiness that deforests and heats the planet;

* Promote local production and consumption of products, reducing the free trade of goods that send millions of tons of CO2 while they travel around the world;

* Stop extractive industries from further destroying nature and contaminating our atmosphere and our land;

* Increase significantly public transport to reduce the unsustainable “car way of life”;

* Reduce the emissions of warfare by promoting genuine peace and dismantling the military and war industry and infrastructure.22

The projects that Yuen describes are worthwhile, but unless the participants are alsocommitted to building mass environmental campaigns, they will not be helping to achieve the vital objectives that Solón identifies. Posing local communes and slow food as alternatives to building a movement against global climate change is effectively a proposal to abandon the fight against capitalist ecocide in favor of creating greenish enclaves, while the world burns.

Bright-siding versus Movement Building

Whatever its merits in other contexts, it is not helpful or appropriate to use the wordcatastrophism as a synonym for telling the truth about the environmental dangers we face. Using the same language as right-wing climate science deniers gives the impression that the dangers are non-existent or exaggerated. Putting accurate environmental warnings in the same category as apocalyptic Christian fundamentalism and century-old misreadings of Marxist economic theory leads to underestimation of the threats we face and directs efforts away from mobilizing an effective counterforce.

Yuen’s argument against publicizing the scientific consensus on climate change echoes the myth that liberal politicians and journalists use to justify their failure to challenge the crimes of the fossil-fuel industry. People are tired of all that doom and gloom, they say. It is time for positivemessages! Or, to use Yuen’s vocabulary, environmentalists need to end “apocalyptic rhetoric” and find better “narrative strategies.”

This is fundamentally an elitist position: the people cannot handle the truth, so a knowledgeable minority must sugarcoat it, to make the necessary changes palatable.

David Spratt of the Australian organization Climate Code Red calls that approach “bright-siding,” a reference to the bitterly satirical Monty Python song, “Always Look on the Bright Side of Life.”

The problem is, Spratt writes: “If you avoid including an honest assessment of climate science and impacts in your narrative, it’s pretty difficult to give people a grasp about where the climate system is heading and what needs to be done to create the conditions for living in climate safety, rather than increasing and eventually catastrophic harm.”23 Joe Romm makes the same point: “You’d think it would be pretty obvious that the public is not going to be concerned about an issue unless one explains why they should be concerned.”24

Of course, this does not mean that we only need to explain the science. We need to propose concrete goals, as Pablo Solón has done. We need to show how the scientific consensus about climate change relates to local and national concerns such as pipelines, tar sands, fracking, and extreme weather. We need to work with everyone who is willing to confront any aspect of the crisis, from people who still have illusions about capitalism to convinced revolutionaries. Activists in the wealthy countries must be unstinting in their political and practical solidarity with the primary victims of climate change, indigenous peoples, and impoverished masses everywhere.

We need to do all of that and more.

But the first step is to tell the truth—about the danger we face, about its causes, and about the measures that must be taken to turn back the threat. In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Notes

  1.  Fraser C. Lott, Nikolaos Christidis, and Peter A. Stott, “Can the 2011 East African Drought Be Attributed to Human-Induced Climate Change?,” Geophysical Research Letters 40, no. 6 ( March 2013): 1177–81.
  2.  UNDP, “’Rise of South’ Transforming Global Power Balance, Says 2013 Human Development Report,” March 14, 2013, http://undp.org.
  3.  Tom Harris, “Climate Catastrophism Picking Up Again in the U.S. and Across the World,”Somewhat Reasonable, October 10, 2012 http://blog.heartland.org.
  4.  Pierre Gosselin, “The Climate Catastrophism Cult,” NoTricksZone, February 12, 2011, http://notrickszone.com.
  5.  Ray Evans, “The Chilling Costs of Climate Catastrophism,” Quadrant Online, June 2008. http://quadrant.org.au.
  6.  Franz Mauelshagen, “Climate Catastrophism: The History of the Future of Climate Change,” in Andrea Janku, Gerrit Schenk, and Franz Mauelshagen, Historical Disasters in Context: Science, Religion, and Politics (New York: Routledge, 2012), 276.
  7.  Alexander Cockburn, “Is Global Warming a Sin?,” CounterPunch, April 28–30, 2007, http://counterpunch.org.
  8.  Alexander Cockburn, “Who are the Merchants of Fear?,” CounterPunch, May 12–14, 2007, http:// counterpunch.org.
  9.  Alexander Cockburn, “I Am An Intellectual Blasphemer,” Spiked Review of Books, January 9, 2008, http://spiked-online.com.
  10.  Leo Panitch and Colin Leys, “Preface,” Socialist Register 2007: Coming to Terms With Nature(London: Merlin Press/Monthly Review Press, 2006), ix–x.
  11. 11.“Notes from the Editors,” Monthly Review 58, no. 10 (March 2007), http://monthlyreview.org.
  12.  Sasha Lilley, David McNally, Eddie Yuen, and James Davis, Catastrophism: The Apocalyptic Politics of Collapse and Rebirth (Oakland: PM Press, 2012).
  13.  Yuen’s footnote cites an article which is identical to a news release issued the previous day by Texas A&M University; see “Increased Knowledge About Global Warming Leads to Apathy, Study Shows,” Science Daily, March 28, 2008, http://eurekalert.org. The original paper, which Yuen does not cite, is: P.M. Kellstedt, S. Zahran, and A. Vedlitz, “Personal Efficacy, the Information Environment, and Attitudes Towards Global Warming and Climate Change in the United State,”Risk Analysis 28, no. 1 (2008): 113–26.
  14.  Aaron M. McCright and Riley E. Dunlap, “The Politicization of Climate Change and Polarization in the American Public’s Views of Global Warming, 2001–2010,” The Sociological Quarterly 52 (2011): 155–94.
  15.  A. Leiserowitz, et. al., Global Warming’s Six Americas, September 2012 (New Haven, CT: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, 2013), http://environment.yale.edu.
  16.  Robert J. Brulle, Jason Carmichael, and J. Craig Jenkins, “Shifting Public Opinion on Climate Change: An Empirical Assessment of Factors Influencing Concern Over Climate Change in the U.S., 2002–2010,” Climatic Change 114, no. 2 (September 2012): 169–88.
  17.  Joe Romm, “Apocalypse Not: The Oscars, The Media and the Myth of ‘Constant Repetition of Doomsday Messages’ on Climate,” Climate Progress, February 24, 2013, http://thinkprogress.org.
  18.  Douglas Fischer. “2010 in Review: The Year Climate Coverage ‘Fell off the Map,’” Daily Climate, January 3, 2011. http://dailyclimate.org; “Climate Coverage Down Again in 2011,” Daily Climate, January 3, 2012, http://dailyclimate.org; “Climate Coverage, Dominated by Weird Weather, Falls Further in 2012,” Daily Climate, January 2, 2013, http://dailyclimate.org.
  19.  Maxwell T. Boykoff, Who Speaks for the Climate?: Making Sense of Media Reporting on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011), 24.
  20.  Neil T. Gavin, “Addressing Climate Change: A Media Perspective,” Environmental Politics 18, no. 5 (September 2009): 765–80.
  21.  Two responses to David Noble are: Derrick O’Keefe, “Denying Time and Place in the Global Warming Debate,” Climate & Capitalism, June 7, 2007, http://climateandcapitalism.com; Justin Podur, “Global Warming Suspicions and Confusions,” ZNet, May 11, 2007, http://zcommunications.org.
  22.  Pablo Solón, “A Contribution to the Climate Space 2013: How to Overcome the Climate Crisis?,”Climate Space, March 14, 2013, http://climatespace2013.wordpress.com.
  23.  David Spratt, Always Look on the Bright Side of Life: Bright-siding Climate Advocacy and Its Consequences, April 2012, http://climatecodered.org.
  24.  Joe Romm, “Apocalypse Not.”

Ian Angus is editor of the online journal Climate & Capitalism. He is co-author of Too Many People? Population, Immigration, and the Environmental Crisis(Haymarket, 2011), and editor of The Global Fight for Climate Justice(Fernwood, 2010).
He would like to thank Simon Butler, Martin Empson, John Bellamy Foster, John Riddell, Javier Sethness, and Chris Williams for comments and suggestions.

Rising Seas (Nat Geo)

Picture of Seaside Heights, New Jersey, after Hurricane Sandy

As the planet warms, the sea rises. Coastlines flood. What will we protect? What will we abandon? How will we face the danger of rising seas?

By Tim Folger

Photographs by George Steinmetz

September 2013

By the time Hurricane Sandy veered toward the Northeast coast of the United States last October 29, it had mauled several countries in the Caribbean and left dozens dead. Faced with the largest storm ever spawned over the Atlantic, New York and other cities ordered mandatory evacuations of low-lying areas. Not everyone complied. Those who chose to ride out Sandy got a preview of the future, in which a warmer world will lead to inexorably rising seas.

Brandon d’Leo, a 43-year-old sculptor and surfer, lives on the Rockaway Peninsula, a narrow, densely populated, 11-mile-long sandy strip that juts from the western end of Long Island. Like many of his neighbors, d’Leo had remained at home through Hurricane Irene the year before. “When they told us the tidal surge from this storm would be worse, I wasn’t afraid,” he says. That would soon change.

D’Leo rents a second-floor apartment in a three-story house across the street from the beach on the peninsula’s southern shore. At about 3:30 in the afternoon he went outside. Waves were crashing against the five-and-a-half-mile-long boardwalk. “Water had already begun to breach the boardwalk,” he says. “I thought, Wow, we still have four and a half hours until high tide. In ten minutes the water probably came ten feet closer to the street.”

Back in his apartment, d’Leo and a neighbor, Davina Grincevicius, watched the sea as wind-driven rain pelted the sliding glass door of his living room. His landlord, fearing the house might flood, had shut off the electricity. As darkness fell, Grincevicius saw something alarming. “I think the boardwalk just moved,” she said. Within minutes another surge of water lifted the boardwalk again. It began to snap apart.

Three large sections of the boardwalk smashed against two pine trees in front of d’Leo’s apartment. The street had become a four-foot-deep river, as wave after wave poured water onto the peninsula. Cars began to float in the churning water, their wailing alarms adding to the cacophony of wind, rushing water, and cracking wood. A bobbing red Mini Cooper, its headlights flashing, became wedged against one of the pine trees in the front yard. To the west the sky lit up with what looked like fireworks—electrical transformers were exploding in Breezy Point, a neighborhood near the tip of the peninsula. More than one hundred homes there burned to the ground that night.

The trees in the front yard saved d’Leo’s house, and maybe the lives of everyone inside—d’Leo, Grincevicius, and two elderly women who lived in an apartment downstairs. “There was no option to get out,” d’Leo says. “I have six surfboards in my apartment, and I was thinking, if anything comes through the wall, I’ll try to get everyone on those boards and try to get up the block. But if we’d had to get in that water, it wouldn’t have been good.”

After a fitful night’s sleep d’Leo went outside shortly before sunrise. The water had receded, but thigh-deep pools still filled parts of some streets. “Everything was covered with sand,” he says. “It looked like another planet.”

A profoundly altered planet is what our fossil-fuel-driven civilization is creating, a planet where Sandy-scale flooding will become more common and more destructive for the world’s coastal cities. By releasing carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere, we have warmed the Earth by more than a full degree Fahrenheit over the past century and raised sea level by about eight inches. Even if we stopped burning all fossil fuels tomorrow, the existing greenhouse gases would continue to warm the Earth for centuries. We have irreversibly committed future generations to a hotter world and rising seas.

In May the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached 400 parts per million, the highest since three million years ago. Sea levels then may have been as much as 65 feet above today’s; the Northern Hemisphere was largely ice free year-round. It would take centuries for the oceans to reach such catastrophic heights again, and much depends on whether we manage to limit future greenhouse gas emissions. In the short term scientists are still uncertain about how fast and how high seas will rise. Estimates have repeatedly been too conservative.

Global warming affects sea level in two ways. About a third of its current rise comes from thermal expansion—from the fact that water grows in volume as it warms. The rest comes from the melting of ice on land. So far it’s been mostly mountain glaciers, but the big concern for the future is the giant ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Six years ago the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a report predicting a maximum of 23 inches of sea-level rise by the end of this century. But that report intentionally omitted the possibility that the ice sheets might flow more rapidly into the sea, on the grounds that the physics of that process was poorly understood.

As the IPCC prepares to issue a new report this fall, in which the sea-level forecast is expected to be slightly higher, gaps in ice-sheet science remain. But climate scientists now estimate that Greenland and Antarctica combined have lost on average about 50 cubic miles of ice each year since 1992—roughly 200 billion metric tons of ice annually. Many think sea level will be at least three feet higher than today by 2100. Even that figure might be too low.

“In the last several years we’ve observed accelerated melting of the ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica,” says Radley Horton, a research scientist at Columbia University’s Earth Institute in New York City. “The concern is that if the acceleration continues, by the time we get to the end of the 21st century, we could see sea-level rise of as much as six feet globally instead of two to three feet.” Last year an expert panel convened by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration adopted 6.6 feet (two meters) as its highest of four scenarios for 2100. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers recommends that planners consider a high scenario of five feet.

One of the biggest wild cards in all sea-level-rise scenarios is the massive Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica. Four years ago NASA sponsored a series of flights over the region that used ice-penetrating radar to map the seafloor topography. The flights revealed that a 2,000-foot-high undersea ridge holds the Thwaites Glacier in place, slowing its slide into the sea. A rising sea could allow more water to seep between ridge and glacier and eventually unmoor it. But no one knows when or if that will happen.“That’s one place I’m really nervous about,” says Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State University and an author of the last IPCC report. “It involves the physics of ice fracture that we really don’t understand.” If the Thwaites Glacier breaks free from its rocky berth, that would liberate enough ice to raise sea level by three meters—nearly ten feet. “The odds are in our favor that it won’t put three meters in the ocean in the next century,” says Alley. “But we can’t absolutely guarantee that. There’s at least some chance that something very nasty will happen.”

Even in the absence of something very nasty, coastal cities face a twofold threat: Inexorably rising oceans will gradually inundate low-lying areas, and higher seas will extend the ruinous reach of storm surges. The threat will never go away; it will only worsen. By the end of the century a hundred-year storm surge like Sandy’s might occur every decade or less. Using a conservative prediction of a half meter (20 inches) of sea-level rise, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development estimates that by 2070, 150 million people in the world’s large port cities will be at risk from coastal flooding, along with $35 trillion worth of property—an amount that will equal 9 percent of the global GDP. How will they cope?

“During the last ice age there was a mile or two of ice above us right here,” says Malcolm Bowman, as we pull into his driveway in Stony Brook, New York, on Long Island’s north shore. “When the ice retreated, it left a heap of sand, which is Long Island. All these rounded stones you see—look there,” he says, pointing to some large boulders scattered among the trees near his home. “They’re glacial boulders.”

Bowman, a physical oceanographer at the State University of New York at Stony Brook, has been trying for years to persuade anyone who will listen that New York City needs a harbor-spanning storm-surge barrier. Compared with some other leading ports, New York is essentially defenseless in the face of hurricanes and floods. London, Rotterdam, St. Petersburg, New Orleans, and Shanghai have all built levees and storm barriers in the past few decades. New York paid a high price for its vulnerability last October. Sandy left 43 dead in the city, of whom 35 drowned; it cost the city some $19 billion. And it was all unnecessary, says Bowman.

“If a system of properly designed storm-surge barriers had been built—and strengthened with sand dunes at both ends along the low-lying coastal areas—there would have been no flooding damage from Sandy,” he says.

Bowman envisions two barriers: one at Throgs Neck, to keep surges from Long Island Sound out of the East River, and a second one spanning the harbor south of the city. Gates would accommodate ships and tides, closing only during storms, much like existing structures in the Netherlands and elsewhere. The southern barrier alone, stretching five miles between Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and the Rockaway Peninsula, might cost $10 billion to $15 billion, Bowman estimates. He pictures a six-lane toll highway on top that would provide a bypass route around the city and a light-rail line connecting the Newark and John F. Kennedy Airports.

“It could be an asset to the region,” says Bowman. “Eventually the city will have to face up to this, because the problem is going to get worse. It might take five years of study and another ten years to get the political will to do it. By then there might have been another disaster. We need to start planning immediately. Otherwise we’re mortgaging the future and leaving the next generation to cope as best it can.”

Another way to safeguard New York might be to revive a bit of its past. In the 16th-floor loft of her landscape architectural firm in lower Manhattan, Kate Orff pulls out a map of New York Harbor in the 19th century. The present-day harbor shimmers outside her window, calm and unthreatening on an unseasonably mild morning three months to the day after Sandy hit.

“Here’s an archipelago that protected Red Hook,” Orff says, pointing on the map to a small cluster of islands off the Brooklyn shore. “There was another chain of shoals that connected Sandy Hook to Coney Island.”

The islands and shallows vanished long ago, demolished by harbor-dredging and landfill projects that added new real estate to a burgeoning city. Orff would re-create some of them, particularly the Sandy Hook–Coney Island chain, and connect them with sluice gates that would close during a storm, forming an eco-engineered barrier that would cross the same waters as Bowman’s more conventional one. Behind it, throughout the harbor, would be dozens of artificial reefs built from stone, rope, and wood pilings and seeded with oysters and other shellfish. The reefs would continue to grow as sea levels rose, helping to buffer storm waves—and the shellfish, being filter feeders, would also help clean the harbor. “Twenty-five percent of New York Harbor used to be oyster beds,” Orff says.

Orff estimates her “oystertecture” vision could be brought to life at relatively low cost. “It would be chump change compared with a conventional barrier. And it wouldn’t be money wasted: Even if another Sandy never happens, you’d have a cleaner, restored harbor in a more ecologically vibrant context and a healthier New York.”

In June, Mayor Michael Bloomberg outlined a $19.5 billion plan to defend New York City against rising seas. “Sandy was a temporary setback that can ultimately propel us forward,” he said. The mayor’s proposal calls for the construction of levees, local storm-surge barriers, sand dunes, oyster reefs, and more than 200 other measures. It goes far beyond anything planned by any other American city. But the mayor dismissed the idea of a harbor barrier. “A giant barrier across our harbor is neither practical nor affordable,” Bloomberg said. The plan notes that since a barrier would remain open most of the time, it would not protect the city from the inch-by-inch creep of sea-level rise.

Meanwhile, development in the city’s flood zones continues. Klaus Jacob, a geophysicist at Columbia University, says the entire New York metropolitan region urgently needs a master plan to ensure that future construction will at least not exacerbate the hazards from rising seas.

“The problem is we’re still building the city of the past,” says Jacob. “The people of the 1880s couldn’t build a city for the year 2000—of course not. And we cannot build a year-2100 city now. But we should not build a city now that we know will not function in 2100. There are opportunities to renew our infrastructure. It’s not all bad news. We just have to grasp those opportunities.”

Will New York grasp them after Bloomberg leaves office at the end of this year? And can a single storm change not just a city’s but a nation’s policy? It has happened before. The Netherlands had its own stormy reckoning 60 years ago, and it transformed the country.

The storm roared in from the North Sea on the night of January 31, 1953. Ria Geluk was six years old at the time and living where she lives today, on the island of Schouwen Duiveland in the southern province of Zeeland. She remembers a neighbor knocking on the door of her parents’ farmhouse in the middle of the night to tell them that the dike had failed. Later that day the whole family, along with several neighbors who had spent the night, climbed to the roof, where they huddled in blankets and heavy coats in the wind and rain. Geluk’s grandparents lived just across the road, but water swept into the village with such force that they were trapped in their home. They died when it collapsed.

“Our house kept standing,” says Geluk. “The next afternoon the tide came again. My father could see around us what was happening; he could see houses disappearing. You knew when a house disappeared, the people were killed. In the afternoon a fishing boat came to rescue us.”

In 1997 Geluk helped found the Watersnoodmuseum—the “flood museum”—on Schouwen Duiveland. The museum is housed in four concrete caissons that engineers used to plug dikes in 1953. The disaster killed 1,836 in all, nearly half in Zeeland, including a baby born on the night of the storm.

Afterward the Dutch launched an ambitious program of dike and barrier construction called the Delta Works, which lasted more than four decades and cost more than six billion dollars. One crucial project was the five-mile-long Oosterscheldekering, or Eastern Scheldt barrier, completed 27 years ago to defend Zeeland from the sea. Geluk points to it as we stand on a bank of the Scheldt estuary near the museum, its enormous pylons just visible on the horizon. The final component of the Delta Works, a movable barrier protecting Rotterdam Harbor and some 1.5 million people, was finished in 1997.

Like other primary sea barriers in the Netherlands, it’s built to withstand a 1-in-10,000-year storm—the strictest standard in the world. (The United States uses a 1-in-100 standard.) The Dutch government is now considering whether to upgrade the protection levels to bring them in line with sea-level-rise projections.

Such measures are a matter of national security for a country where 26 percent of the land lies below sea level. With more than 10,000 miles of dikes, the Netherlands is fortified to such an extent that hardly anyone thinks about the threat from the sea, largely because much of the protection is so well integrated into the landscape that it’s nearly invisible.

On a bitingly cold February afternoon I spend a couple of hours walking around Rotterdam with Arnoud Molenaar, the manager of the city’s Climate Proof program, which aims to make Rotterdam resistant to the sea levels expected by 2025. About 20 minutes into our walk we climb a sloping street next to a museum designed by the architect Rem Koolhaas. The presence of a hill in this flat city should have alerted me, but I’m surprised when Molenaar tells me that we’re walking up the side of a dike. He gestures to some nearby pedestrians. “Most of the people around us don’t realize this is a dike either,” he says. The Westzeedijk shields the inner city from the Meuse River a few blocks to the south, but the broad, busy boulevard on top of it looks like any other Dutch thoroughfare, with flocks of cyclists wheeling along in dedicated lanes.

As we walk, Molenaar points out assorted subtle flood-control structures: an underground parking garage designed to hold 10,000 cubic meters—more than 2.5 million gallons—of rainwater; a street flanked by two levels of sidewalks, with the lower one designed to store water, leaving the upper walkway dry. Late in the afternoon we arrive at Rotterdam’s Floating Pavilion, a group of three connected, transparent domes on a platform in a harbor off the Meuse. The domes, about three stories tall, are made of a plastic that’s a hundred times as light as glass.

Inside we have sweeping views of Rotterdam’s skyline; hail clatters overhead as low clouds scud in from the North Sea. Though the domes are used for meetings and exhibitions, their main purpose is to demonstrate the wide potential of floating urban architecture. By 2040 the city anticipates that as many as 1,200 homes will float in the harbor. “We think these structures will be important not just for Rotterdam but for many cities around the world,” says Bart Roeffen, the architect who designed the pavilion. The homes of 2040 will not necessarily be domes; Roeffen chose that shape for its structural integrity and its futuristic appeal. “To build on water is not new, but to develop floating communities on a large scale and in a harbor with tides—that is new,” says Molenaar. “Instead of fighting against water, we want to live with it.”

While visiting the Netherlands, I heard one joke repeatedly: “God may have built the world, but the Dutch built Holland.” The country has been reclaiming land from the sea for nearly a thousand years—much of Zeeland was built that way. Sea-level rise does not yet panic the Dutch.

“We cannot retreat! Where could we go? Germany?” Jan Mulder has to shout over the wind—we’re walking along a beach called Kijkduin as volleys of sleet exfoliate our faces. Mulder is a coastal morphologist with Deltares, a private coastal management firm. This morning he and Douwe Sikkema, a project manager with the province of South Holland, have brought me to see the latest in adaptive beach protection. It’s called the zandmotor—the sand engine.

The seafloor offshore, they explain, is thick with hundreds of feet of sand deposited by rivers and retreating glaciers. North Sea waves and currents once distributed that sand along the coast. But as sea level has risen since the Ice Age, the waves no longer reach deep enough to stir up sand, and the currents have less sand to spread around. Instead the sea erodes the coast here.

The typical solution would be to dredge sand offshore and dump it directly on the eroding beaches—and then repeat the process year after year as the sand washes away. Mulder and his colleagues recommended that the provincial government try a different strategy: a single gargantuan dredging operation to create the sandy peninsula we’re walking on—a hook-shaped stretch of beach the size of 250 football fields. If the scheme works, over the next 20 years the wind, waves, and tides will spread its sand 15 miles up and down the coast. The combination of wind, waves, tides, and sand is the zandmotor.

The project started only two years ago, but it seems to be working. Mulder shows me small dunes that have started to grow on a beach where there was once open water. “It’s very flexible,” he says. “If we see that sea-level rise increases, we can increase the amount of sand.” Sikkema adds, “And it’s much easier to adjust the amount of sand than to rebuild an entire system of dikes.”

Later Mulder tells me about a memorial inscription affixed to the Eastern Scheldt barrier in Zeeland: “It says, ‘Hier gaan over het tij, de maan, de wind, en wij—Here the tide is ruled by the moon, the wind, and us.’ ” It reflects the confidence of a generation that took for granted, as we no longer can, a reasonably stable world. “We have to understand that we are not ruling the world,” says Mulder. “We need to adapt.”

With the threats of climate change and sea-level rise looming over us all, cities around the world, from New York to Ho Chi Minh City, have turned to the Netherlands for guidance. One Dutch firm, Arcadis, has prepared a conceptual design for a storm-surge barrier in the Verrazano Narrows to protect New York City. The same company helped design a $1.1 billion, two-mile-long barrier that protected New Orleans from a 13.6-foot storm surge last summer, when Hurricane Isaac hit. The Lower Ninth Ward, which suffered so greatly during Hurricane Katrina, was unscathed.

“Isaac was a tremendous victory for New Orleans,” Piet Dircke, an Arcadis executive, tells me one night over dinner in Rotterdam. “All the barriers were closed; all the levees held; all the pumps worked. You didn’t hear about it? No, because nothing happened.”

New Orleans may be safe for a few decades, but the long-term prospects for it and other low-lying cities look dire. Among the most vulnerable is Miami. “I cannot envision southeastern Florida having many people at the end of this century,” says Hal Wanless, chairman of the department of geological sciences at the University of Miami. We’re sitting in his basement office, looking at maps of Florida on his computer. At each click of the mouse, the years pass, the ocean rises, and the peninsula shrinks. Freshwater wetlands and mangrove swamps collapse—a death spiral that has already started on the southern tip of the peninsula. With seas four feet higher than they are today—a distinct possibility by 2100—about two-thirds of southeastern Florida is inundated. The Florida Keys have almost vanished. Miami is an island.

When I ask Wanless if barriers might save Miami, at least in the short term, he leaves his office for a moment. When he returns, he’s holding a foot-long cylindrical limestone core. It looks like a tube of gray, petrified Swiss cheese. “Try to plug this up,” he says. Miami and most of Florida sit atop a foundation of highly porous limestone. The limestone consists of the remains of countless marine creatures deposited more than 65 million years ago, when a warm, shallow sea covered what is now Florida—a past that may resemble the future here.

A barrier would be pointless, Wanless says, because water would just flow through the limestone beneath it. “No doubt there will be some dramatic engineering feats attempted,” he says. “But the limestone is so porous that even massive pumping systems won’t be able to keep the water out.”

Sea-level rise has already begun to threaten Florida’s freshwater supply. About a quarter of the state’s 19 million residents depend on wells sunk into the enormous Biscayne aquifer. Salt water is now seeping into it from dozens of canals that were built to drain the Everglades. For decades the state has tried to control the saltwater influx by building dams and pumping stations on the drainage canals. These “salinity-control structures” maintain a wall of fresh water behind them to block the underground intrusion of salt water. To offset the greater density of salt water, the freshwater level in the control structures is generally kept about two feet higher than the encroaching sea.

But the control structures also serve a second function: During the state’s frequent rainstorms their gates must open to discharge the flood of fresh water to the sea.“We have about 30 salinity-control structures in South Florida,” says Jayantha Obeysekera, the chief hydrological modeler at the South Florida Water Management District. “At times now the water level in the sea is higher than the freshwater level in the canal.” That both accelerates saltwater intrusion and prevents the discharge of flood waters. “The concern is that this will get worse with time as the sea-level rise accelerates,” Obeysekera says.

Using fresh water to block the salt water will eventually become impractical, because the amount of fresh water needed would submerge ever larger areas behind the control structures, in effect flooding the state from the inside. “With 50 centimeters [about 20 inches] of sea-level rise, 80 percent of the salinity-control structures in Florida will no longer be functional,” says Wanless. “We’ll either have to drown communities to keep the freshwater head above sea level or have saltwater intrusion.” When sea level rises two feet, he says, Florida’s aquifers may be poisoned beyond recovery. Even now, during unusually high tides, seawater spouts from sewers in Miami Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and other cities, flooding streets.

In a state exposed to hurricanes as well as rising seas, people like John Van Leer, an oceanographer at the University of Miami, worry that one day they will no longer be able to insure—or sell—their houses. “If buyers can’t insure it, they can’t get a mortgage on it. And if they can’t get a mortgage, you can only sell to cash buyers,” Van Leer says. “What I’m looking for is a climate-change denier with a lot of money.”

Unless we change course dramatically in the coming years, our carbon emissions will create a world utterly different in its very geography from the one in which our species evolved. “With business as usual, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will reach around a thousand parts per million by the end of the century,” says Gavin Foster, a geochemist at the University of Southampton in England. Such concentrations, he says, haven’t been seen on Earth since the early Eocene epoch, 50 million years ago, when the planet was completely ice free. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, sea level on an iceless Earth would be as much as 216 feet higher than it is today. It might take thousands of years and more than a thousand parts per million to create such a world—but if we burn all the fossil fuels, we will get there.

No matter how much we reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, Foster says, we’re already locked in to at least several feet of sea-level rise, and perhaps several dozens of feet, as the planet slowly adjusts to the amount of carbon that’s in the atmosphere already. A recent Dutch study predicted that the Netherlands could engineer solutions at a manageable cost to a rise of as much as five meters, or 16 feet. Poorer countries will struggle to adapt to much less. At different times in different places, engineering solutions will no longer suffice. Then the retreat from the coast will begin. In some places there will be no higher ground to retreat to.

By the next century, if not sooner, large numbers of people will have to abandon coastal areas in Florida and other parts of the world. Some researchers fear a flood tide of climate-change refugees. “From the Bahamas to Bangladesh and a major amount of Florida, we’ll all have to move, and we may have to move at the same time,” says Wanless. “We’re going to see civil unrest, war. You just wonder how—or if—civilization will function. How thin are the threads that hold it all together? We can’t comprehend this. We think Miami has always been here and will always be here. How do you get people to realize that Miami—or London—will not always be there?”

What will New York look like in 200 years? Klaus Jacob, the Columbia geophysicist, sees downtown Manhattan as a kind of Venice, subject to periodic flooding, perhaps with canals and yellow water cabs. Much of the city’s population, he says, will gather on high ground in the other boroughs. “High ground will become expensive, waterfront will become cheap,” he says. But among New Yorkers, as among the rest of us, the idea that the sea is going to rise—a lot—hasn’t really sunk in yet. Of the thousands of people in New York State whose homes were badly damaged or destroyed by Sandy’s surge, only 10 to 15 percent are expected to accept the state’s offer to buy them out at their homes’ pre-storm value. The rest plan to rebuild.

Paraíso sitiado (O Globo)

O drama dos índios Awá e a resistência de seu povo que tenta impedir a ação criminosa de madeireiros na Reserva Biológica Gurupi, onde o território indígena já perdeu 30% de sua paisagem original.

REPORTAGEM: MÍRIAM LEITÃO – FOTOS: SEBASTIÃO SALGADO

Vídeos

QUANDO A SOBREVIVÊNCIA EXIGE CORAGEM

O drama do povo Awá na luta contra o desmatamento na Reserva Biológica Gurupi

TESTEMUNHAS DA HISTÓRIA AWÁ

A repórter Míriam Leitão fala do privilégio de acompanhar o fotógrafo Sebastião Salgado pela Aldeia Juriti

A IMPUNIDADE ROMPE O SILÊNCIO DA NOITE

Míriam Leitão flagra madeireiros em ação à noite numa serraria clandestina no interior do Maranhão

Sobreviver com coragem

Considerados um dos últimos povos caçadores e coletores do planeta, os poucos mais de 400 Awá que povoam o que restou da Floresta Amazônica no Maranhão vivem o momento mais decisivo de sua sobrevivência: impedir que grileiros, posseiros e madeireiros destruam o seu mais valioso bem. É das árvores e da mata densa situadas na Reserva Biológica do Gurupi, de onde tiram o seu alimento, a sua certeza de amanhã poderem garantir a continuação de seu povo, de sua gente. Eles não querem nada mais do que a garantia do governo federal de que não terão o seu terrítório devastado pela ganância do homem branco, que avança a passos largos em busca de madeira nobre.

Apesar de sua terra já estar demarcada, homologada e registrada com 116.582 hectares pela União, eles enfrentam uma ameaça real de assistir à destruição da floresta da qual são tão dependentes e de onde tiram o sustento de seus filhos. Ainda que a Justiça já tenha determinada a retirada desses ‘intrusos’ ou não índios, como define a Funai, os Awá temem pela própria sorte, se afirmam em sua coragem e não vacilam quando veem sua resistência em xeque. “Não temos medo. Vamos resistir”, dizem em discursos emocionados.

A repórter Míriam Leitão, a convite do renomado fotógrafo Sebastião Salgado, viajou até a Aldeia Juriti e pôde comprovar como os Awá vivem essa dramática expectativa. Neste ambiente especial, que complementa a série de reportagens publicadas na edição dominical de O GLOBO, o leitor poderá saber mais do cotidiano dos chamados ‘índios invisíveis’, como vivem, e como reverenciam a sua sagrada cultura.

Sem Título-1Reserva Biológica Gurupi
Terra Indígena Awa
Terra Indígena Caru
Terra Indígena Alto Turiaçu

Áudio

A AMEAÇA DOS MADEIREIROS

Sebastião Salgado se prepara para fotografar os Awá

O DISCURSO AWÁ

Ouça trecho da fala de uma das lideranças Awá

DENÚNCIA

A repórter Míriam Leitão flagra a ação ilegal de madeireiros em uma serraria

O JOVEM GUERREIRO JUI’I

Ouça trecho de seu discurso

OS ÍNDIOS INVISÍVEIS

O antropólogo Uirá Garcia fala sobre a cultura Awá

O CANTO DA CAÇA

Ouça o canto do jovem guerreiro antes de ir à caça

“NÓS TEMOS CORAGEM TAMBÉM”

O jovem guerreiro Jui’i fala da ameaça dos madeireiros

Textos

A LUTA CONTRA A DESTRUIÇÃO DOS MADEIREIROS

Awás tentam sobreviver à ação criminosa dos desmatadores

PARA OS AWÁ, A TRAGÉDIA DO DESMATAMENTO ATINGE A TERRA E O CÉU

Fim da floresta os impedirá de virar ‘Karauaras’, seres que habitam o mundo após a morte

SILENCIOSOS, AWÁ SE CONFUNDEM COM A MATA

Audição acima dos padrões comuns permite ouvir som da devastação a quilômetros

‘ESTAMOS BRAVOS. ASSIM ELES VÃO NOS MATAR’, DIZ LIDERANÇA AWÁ

Após vencer a desconfiança dos índios, ouve-se o desabafo: ‘Quero ficar na minha casa’

FOTOGALERIA

Os Awás pelas lentes de Sebastião Salgado

MADEIREIROS IMPÕEM SUA LEI

Em emboscadas, comerciantes de madeira demostram ter mais força do que a Polícia Federal e a Força Nacional juntas

NO CAMINHO DA VOLTA, O ENCONTRO COM O CRIME

Na estradas que ligam terra Awá, grileiros, serrarias e caminhões agem na certeza da impunidade

MINISTRO: RETIRADA DE TERRA AWÁ TERÁ PF, IBAMA E EXÉRCITO

Ministro da Justiça programa operação, atrasada pela vinda do Papa, já para este semestre

REPORTAGEM: MÍRIAM LEITÃO | FOTOS: SEBASTIÃO SALGADO | EDIÇÃO: DANIEL BIASETTO | MAPA: DANIEL LIMA | ARTE E DESENVOLVIMENTO: GUSTAVO SARAIVA | DESENVOLVIMENTO: AYRTON TESHIMA

Os Awá-Guajá viram bichos-pau (Yahoo! Notícias)

Por  – ter, 20 de ago de 2013

As primeiras fotos de índios surgiram no início mesmo da invenção e popularização dos daguerreótipos e câmeras fotográficas. Pelo Oeste americano intrépidos aventureiros arriscavam suas vidas e suas imensas geringonças para obter um clique de um grupo de guerreiros a cavalo, um retrato de um chefe indígena Sioux, Apache ou Comanche engalonado em suas casacas de couro de búfalo e seus exuberantes cocares de pena de águia. Posavam hirtos, de cara dura, olhando para o horizonte infinito, como se estivessem em alguma solenidade com autoridades estrangeiras, quem sabe, o próprio presidente americano, manifestando sua dignidade humana para preservar ou recuperar seus territórios e ocupar um lugar digno no novo mundo que se criava ao seu redor.

Mas o destino lhes foi cruel demais.

Das fotos solenes, ao final dos anos de resistência (1830-1880) em que o Oeste foi definitivamente incorporado aos Estados Unidos da América, passou-se à dessacralização dos índios, quando até um líder de grande respeito, como Touro Sentado, chefe dos Sioux que destroçou o 6º Regimento de William Custer, na famosa batalha de Little Big Horn, se submeteu a ser uma das estrelas do famoso circo do fanfarrão Buffalo Bill, montando cavalos, dando gritos de guerra e empunhando um rifle winchester com balas de festim. O Wild West Circus fez história se apresentando nas cidades e bribocas que se formavam por todo o imenso centro-oeste americano. Mutatis mutandi, não pensem que no Brasil seja diferente!

As primeiras fotos de índios brasileiros, passado o tempo de viajantes estrangeiros fazendo desenhos e aquarelas, foram tiradas em cidades como Manaus e Cuiabá. Marc Ferrez, famoso por suas fotos do Rio de Janeiro, conseguiu levar um grupo de 11 índios Bororo para um studio em Cuiabá e os fotografou com maestria, mostrando como seres humanos dignos, em toda sua nudez virtuosa, ainda em 1880.

Indios Bororo , coleção Gilberto Ferrez

Indios Bororo , coleção Gilberto Ferrez

No campo, nas matas, nos cerrados, ao vivo em seus ambientes, fotos de índios brasileiros vão surgir pelas lentes de viajantes, cientistas e, no começo do século XX, pela Comissão Rondon, que percorreu todo o oeste do Mato Grosso, Rondônia e várias partes da Amazônia. Os índios aparecem ora desnudos completamente, com algum pano, uma tanga inventada na hora, ora vestidos em camisas sem gola, manga comprida, calças simples, como os pobres brasileiros da época, pés descalços, um ou outro em uniforme militar, as mulheres de saia e os seis expostos. Exceto nas missões, quando as saias desciam até os calcanhares.

A coloração em preto, cinza e branca dessas fotos é do tipo que hoje se chama sépia, a qual faz as imagens se diferenciarem tão somente pela textura e forma dos objetos, como se o mundo fosse uma penumbra. Visualizando isso, o espectador precisava de um esforço intelectual para ver e dar significado às distintas imagens. Por esse esforço as imagens ganhavam um significado muito além do real corriqueiro. De algum modo elas se sacralizavam, como se fosse um objeto antigo ou precioso. Daí porque naqueles tempos tornara-se de praxe os amigos se presentearem com retratos, que eram solenemente expostos nas salas e nos escritórios. Daí porque as fotos eram tratadas com reverência e carinho, e eram beijadas como se representassem as pessoas vivas.

A nitidez da coloração das fotos, desde os anos 1960, mudou o modo como as vemos e elas foram aos poucos se vulgarizando, tanto pela banalidade de sua existência quanto principalmente pelo realismo que elas nos evocam. A arte da fotografia, consequentemente, passou a requerer mais sutileza de luzes para obter algum senso de sacralidade do objeto visado.

E aqui chegamos ao objetivo desse artigo – as fotos tiradas pelo fotógrafo profissional Sebastião Salgado dos índios Awá-Guajá, do Maranhão, recentemente publicadas pelo jornal O Globo, em reportagem de Miriam Leitão.

Nessas fotos, os Guajá, a última sociedade a viver quase que exclusivamente da caça, pesca e coleta de animais, frutos e tubérculos da floresta, são fotografados em coloração sépia, com pouca luz, sob um fundo “natural” de árvores, raízes e chão. Apresentam-se nus, os homens com seus prepúcios amarrados com fibras de tucum, braceletes e auréolas de penas, meninos e meninas sem nada, e as mulheres em seus saiotes tecidos de fibras de tucum, bem como as tipóias em que carregam seus bebês.

Algumas fotos, talvez as que mais calaram fundo com os propósitos do fotógrafo mineiro-europeu, trazem grupos de homens e meninos adornados a caráter, todos em pé, fisionomias sérias, porém mudos e imóveis, arcos à mão, numa clara alusão de que são parte da floresta que lhes ladeia como o cenário de fundo e de compartilhamento.

Nas fotos de Salgado não há informação etnográfica, exceto aquela em que um caçador, que o reconheço pelo nome de Mutumhû, porta um macaco guariba morto pendurado às suas costas, com um olhar de inadvertida preocupação. Não sabemos como vivem os Guajá, como se alimentam, como amam e cuidam dos filhos, como se divertem e como sofrem. Não há tempo aqui. Nem eternidade, nem instantaneidade. Tempo morto.

A jornalista Miriam Leitão, emocionada com o quê viu, produziu alguns textos nos quais procura mostrar que os Guajá estão em perigo de sobrevivência, ecoando inadvertidamente as matérias da Survival International, uma ONG inglesa que alardeia que os Guajá são o povo em maior grau de perigo de sobrevivência do mundo. No total, os Guajá somam cerca de 360 pessoas, mas eram menos de 200 na década de 1980. A terra indígena visitada por Salgado e Leitão, chamada de Awá-Guajá, está parcialmente invadida por madeireiros e posseiros, sem dúvida, mas não consta nas matérias informação sobre por que isto está acontecendo e se a presença da FUNAI é eficiente ou não para deter esse perigo e para dar assistência aos índios. Por que tudo está tão ruim no indigenismo brasileiro da atualidade?

Os Guajá, em virtude de sua característica cultural de mobilidade, se dispersaram há mais de 100 anos por uma vasta área do oeste maranhense, e hoje se encontram morando em quatro terras indígenas, com pouco contato entre si. A terra indígena Awá-Guajá, com 116.000 hectares, conecta as terras indígenas Caru (172.000 ha) e Alto Turiaçu (530.000 ha), que juntas somam 718.000 hectares, compartilhadas com os povos Guajajara e Kaapor. Em vários trechos delas os últimos madeireiros do Maranhão se esbaldam, traçando picadas pelo meio da mata por onde passam seus tratores e caminhões carregados de toras de madeira de lei, sob as vistas grossas de alguns índios não Guajá, cooptados por migalhas, com rara presença do órgão indigenista, ultimamente em completa inatividade e decadência.

Aqueles Guajá que residem na Terra Indígena Awá-Guajá são, por ironia, os que estão mais bem protegidos por funcionários dedicados do órgão indigenista, funcionários que passam às vezes mais de 60 dias sem saírem do posto indígena perto do qual se fixou, há mais de 20 anos, o grupo Guajá visitado. Na verdade, o posto indígena não existe mais, foi extinto por um decreto presidencial, e só por teimosia é que os resolutos funcionários nele permanecem. É provável que tenham que se retirar de vez ainda este mês. Se ao menos essa informação e um pouco do histórico da luta desigual que esses funcionários travam para manter a dignidade dos índios, à indiferença das atitudes do poder federal, fossem divulgados aos leitores, algo mais verdadeiro e esperançoso teria surgido dessa expedição e das fotos obtidas.

Ilustrar com fotos artísticas e etnograficamente relevantes para informar o espectador e sensibilizá-lo para a causa indígena tem sido o mais nobre dos propósitos de fotógrafos e jornalistas. Neste caso, a informação jornalística sem dúvida pode pressionar o governo a tomar as medidas necessárias para seguir as ordens judiciais, exaradas há algum tempo pela Justiça Federal do Maranhão, para retirar de uma vez por todas todos os invasores que teimam em permanecer nessa terra, e coibir definitivamente as atividades destrutivas dos madeireiros. Nada disso é fácil, nas circunstâncias do anti-indigenismo oficial que estamos vivenciando. Este é o sentido que se esperava desta reportagem publicada em O Globo pelos dois competentes profissionais da informação.

Porém, para além desse propósito, as fotos de Sebastião Salgado têm um objetivo considerado transcendente. Salgado está engajado num projeto patrocinado por financiadores particulares e chancelado pela ONU com o intuito visionário, e, dir-se-ia, poético, no sentido de criativo, de captar do mundo atual, tão diversificado na natureza e nas culturas, mas tão dilapidado e com tendência à homogeneização, aquilo que representaria a gênese mesmo da Terra, da vida e do homem. Uma espécie de arqueologia ao vivo.

Assim, Salgado vem fotografando geleiras intocáveis, vulcões flamejantes, montanhas inalcançáveis e povos remotos e “imutáveis” na África, Ásia e Américas. Há sete anos passou um mês morando em duas aldeias dos índios do Alto Xingu capturando sua vida autêntica ao máximo. Durante a cerimônia do Kwarup, quando os índios celebram o fim de um período de luto pela morte de um parente respeitado, Salgado fez questão absoluta de fotografar a efeméride sem a presença de qualquer objeto exógeno à cultura xinguana, seja um cigarro de palha ou uma tira de pano, muito menos alguém não indígena, apesar da aldeia ter isso tudo e mais. As fotos são ahistóricas, pois todos os seus signos foram escoimados pelas lentes prístinas do fotógrafo. Entretanto, os índios xinguanos não vivem e não pensam assim: sabem que estão no meio do redemoinho histórico, sendo e vindo a ser, procurando seu lugar no mundo da atualidade, não flutuando em um éter deshistorizado.

Os Guajá sabem muito menos do nosso mundo, tão recente e tão sofrido tem sido sua aproximação conosco. Nós sabemos muito menos sobre eles. Sua cultura tradicional é viva, apesar dos objetos exógenos. Assim, retratá-los como figurantes da natureza, e mostrá-los como seres quase ctônicos, não deve ter sido difícil para Sebastião Salgado. Mas, ao invés do resultado se tornar uma imagem de auto-conhecimento para os Guajá para avançar em sua compreensibilidade do mundo que os massacra, e de ser um modo de nós os conhecer melhor para amá-los e os ajudar a sobreviver e encontrar um lugar seguro nesse mundo convoluto, essas fotografias se tornam um desserviço para todos nós, os Guajá em especial.

Por essas fotos, os Guajá se tornaram seres da natureza, animais ou vegetais, folhagem, até talvez bichos-pau mimetizados na sépia florestal. A estética da ecologização do mundo virou uma estética da desumanização do homem pelas lentes de um brasileiro que perdeu o senso de brasilidade e anda pelo mundo apegado às cadeias do espetáculo do faz-de-conta.

Can weather swing an election? (Discover)

By Seriously Science | May 22, 2013 10:30 am

Photo: flickr/hjl

It’s pretty obvious that weather can affect overall voter turnout; many people just don’t want to go out in the rain, even if it’s to exercise their civic duty. But does weather affect some political parties more than others? Are right-wing voters more likely to skip the polls on a rainy day? Do Democrats forget to vote when the surf’s up? Well, not many people go surfing in the Netherlands, but they do have elections and weather, and this study describes the relationship between the two.

Weather conditions and political party vote share in Dutch national parliament elections, 1971-2010.

“Inclement weather on election day is widely seen to benefit certain political parties at the expense of others. Empirical evidence for this weather-vote share hypothesis is sparse however. We examine the effects of rainfall and temperature on share of the votes of eight political parties that participated in 13 national parliament elections, held in the Netherlands from 1971 to 2010.This paper merges the election results for all Dutch municipalities with election-day weather observations drawn from all official weather stations well distributed over the country. We find that the weather parameters affect the election results in a statistically and politically significant way. Whereas the Christian Democratic party benefits from substantial rain (10 mm) on voting day by gaining one extra seat in the 150-seat Dutch national parliament, the left-wing Social Democratic (Labor) and the Socialist parties are found to suffer from cold and wet conditions. Cold (5°C) and rainy (10 mm) election day weather causes the latter parties to lose one or two parliamentary seats.”

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Master of Disaster (Discover)

Earthquakes and hurricanes will always wreak havoc, but risk management expert Robert Bea says the greatest tragedies result from hubris and greed.

By Linda Marsa|Thursday, May 23, 2013

Robert-Bea

Paul Chinn/San Francisco Chronicle/Corbis

Robert Bea has an unusual specialty: He studies disasters. As one of the world’s leading experts in catastrophic risk management, the former Shell Oil Co. executive sifts through the wreckage to unravel the chain of events that triggers accidents. The blunt-spoken civil engineer has spent more than a half-century investigating high-profile engineering failures, from the space shuttle Columbia’s horrific end to the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil-drilling rig in the Gulf.

A professor emeritus of civil engineering at the University of California, Berkeley, Bea’s disaster autopsy methods — such as looking at the organizational breakdowns that lead to calamities — have been widely adopted. Although policymakers and corporate honchos seek his counsel, sometimes they don’t like what he has to say — witness the flak he took from BP during the Deepwater Horizon probe.

Now in his mid-70s, Bea’s voice is raspier, but his critical faculties are undimmed. On a crisp fall day, he talked with DISCOVER in his comfortable one-story house in Moraga, a leafy suburb east of Berkeley, about what causes catastrophes.

You have said that engineering failures aren’t the chief culprits behind disasters, pointing instead to human and organizational failures — inadequate safety protocols, corporate hierarchies, conflicting egos or just plain laziness. Was there an “aha moment” when this became apparent?

When I was involved in the investigation into the Piper Alpha disaster, when an explosion destroyed an Occidental Petroleum oil-drilling platform in the North Sea, killing 167 men in 1988. The external investigation team that had been hired by Occidental into what caused Piper Alpha found it was a corporate culture that had gone bad, had lost its way.

I was part of that team all the way through the Lord Cullen Commission hearings in London, and I had to listen to one of my friends explain to the Cullen Commission why he and his colleagues had turned off the smoke alarms on the platform because the operating crew was doing a routine maintenance procedure late in the evening. Unfortunately, for over a month, certain alarms had been disabled to prevent unnecessary shutdowns on the rig — in some cases as a response to practical jokes. But turning off the alarms was one of the reasons they got caught by surprise.

Ironically, two years before, I was brought in to advise Occidental on risk management for Piper Alpha because they were having gas releases, pipes were leaking. Of course, you didn’t have to be very smart to say, “Yeah, we’ve got a problem — it’s called rusty pipes. And we’ve got problems with people not doing what they should be doing, and people who don’t understand what’s happening.”

One evening, during the first year of the investigation, I saw spread out on the reception table of the Occidental offices a copy of the London Times newspaper with a great, big, bold headline that said, “Occidental puts profit before safety.”

It had a picture of one of the bandaged, beat-up, horribly scarred survivors from the disaster who was telling this to the newspaper. What this survivor was observing is true. If you don’t have profitability, you don’t have the resources to invest in achieving adequate protection. What the tension is, is having the discipline and the foresight to make those investments before you’re in trouble.

When I came back to Berkeley after the investigation was completed, I realized that for the past 50-some-odd years of my career, I’d been working on 10 percent of the problems. I’d been working on normal engineering things, and 90 percent of the problems are humans and/or organizations.

We often have ample warnings before catastrophes hit, but we tend to ignore them until it’s too late. Why?

The problem is attention span, particularly in this country because we are a pretty young country. Our knowledge of history is very limited. We are extremely blessed. Lots of good things attract our attention. It’s a noisy environment, really noisy. It’s unusual to find people who are comfortable sitting in a room by themselves thinking.

You could say the eruption of Mount St. Helens was certainly painful, but it actually affected relatively few people and then disappeared into that strong noise environment. At that point people say, “Well, it’s never happened to me.

I can’t even remember my parents talking about it, and I’ve got these new things to play with, and they require attention,” like Facebook and Twitter. And suddenly, we have flitted from something that is difficult and painful to think about back to something that is enjoyable.

Piper-Alpha-Disaster

Robert Bea helped investigate the 1988 Piper Alpha disaster, where an exploding oil platform killed 167 in the North Sea. Press Association/AP

You seem to be suggesting that people have trouble dealing with issues over the long term. Are there other examples?

Well, global climate change is a perfect one, or rising sea levels. It’s happening slowly. People love living by the beach, so they build a beautiful home on a concrete slab, on top of the sand a few feet above sea level, and [ignore the fact] that the sea level is [rising]. So thinking about these slowly evolving long-term things, it is painful. It says, “Well, I might have to move my home. I really enjoy the beach,” and we don’t like to give those things up.

Is this inability to think long term also true of organizations — corporations or government agencies?

Yes. The equation for disaster is A + B = C. A is natural hazards, things like hurricanes, gases and liquids under pressure that are extremely volatile. They’re volcanoes. They’re tsunamis. They’re natural, and there’s nothing unusual about them. B is organizational hazards: people and their hubris, their arrogance, their greed. The real killer is our indolence.

So human error is the kindling that escalates a natural hazard — a hurricane, a tsunami, chemicals under pressure — into C, a catastrophic disaster. Can you give me some examples?

Hurricane Ike. Galveston, Texas, got completely wiped out in 1900. Thousands of people got killed. So the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers built a seawall on Galveston Island, and that sucker has gone through every major hurricane since 1900.

But people think that if a storm hasn’t happened since they lived there, somehow it can’t happen to them. This is where B comes in — the hubris and shortsightedness. Because a hurricane hadn’t flattened the city in decades, civic leaders decided to let people build at sea level again. And when Hurricane Ike came through in 2008, it was just like Berlin at the end of the second world war. Everything was gone.

Before Superstorm Sandy, I wrote that the subways were going to flood, but no one did anything. Mayor Bloomberg even hired some of my engineer friends from the Netherlands to come to New York City and advise him about building gates to cut off incoming hurricane surges.

But here we’re back to B — hubris and shortsightedness. People think because they’ve never seen a storm like what happened in New Jersey or they’ve never seen the tunnels flooded in New York City that it can’t happen, or that they need to think about building a levee.

Hurricane-Katrina

Disaster specialist Robert Bea studied the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, which left New Orleans flooded in 2005. NOAA

When I lived in New Orleans, we lost everything in Hurricane Betsy [in 1965]: our house, wedding photographs, marriage license, birth certificates. Yet 40 years later, after Katrina, I go back to the same place. There’s a new home built on the foundation, and the owners are dragging wet, oily mattresses out the front door.

Luckily I had no one with me that morning, but I broke down and cried. It wasn’t tears of sadness. It was tears of frustration at such a miserable, despicable mess. While we can’t prevent disaster, we can do things that are more sensible to mitigate risks, like maybe not building homes in floodplains.

But the cities are already there. Are you going to move entire cities?

In some cases, yes. We did it in the Mississippi River Valley after the 1993 floods. We actually moved entire towns to higher ground, like Valmeyer, Ill., and Rhineland, Mo., because we suddenly recognized they’d rebuilt them five times in the same damn place. Doing it six times doesn’t quite make sense. But there is not a “one size fits all” answer.

In other cases, there are intermediate solutions that can work, such as occupying only what you can defend properly and in a sustainable manner. An example is the “new New Orleans,” where parts of the city outside of the defended perimeter of the levee system can be expected to flood severely and frequently. Individuals there are building structures on higher ground and making them stronger, and preparing to take care of themselves in future storms.

But even after Superstorm Sandy’s devastation, you can’t just completely rebuild Lower Manhattan.

No, you can’t. But you can follow the example of the massive Thames Barrier that has been built in London [10 steel gates that prevent the city from being flooded by tidal surges].

But that cost over 500 million pounds — about $850 million — when it was completed in 1982. Doing the same in Manhattan would cost up to $17 billion and an additional $10 billion to $12 billion to shore up areas next to the barriers, an astonishing amount of money.

Well, do you want to fix it now or fix it later, when it will cost 100 times as much? Damages from Superstorm Sandy in New York and New Jersey are estimated at $60 billion to $70 billion. The key question I always ask is, “Can we work this problem out in a responsible way, or do we wait until it fails — in other words, will we fix it now versus pick up the pieces later?”

We looked into this “pay me now or pay me later,” and in many cases, it’s more than 100 times the cost to fix afterward. We economically documented several major accidents where the factor is bigger than 1,000, like Katrina.

People regularly ignore risks, but isn’t it the extreme scenario — the thing that has the 1 percent chance of happening, the so-called long tail at each end of the bell curve — that causes all the trouble? What about events beyond the realm of normal expectations, like Superstorm Sandy? 

Sandy is better classified as a “predictable surprise.” There were some groups in the greater New York area that had a clear understanding of the potential for significant flooding due to an intense storm. But there were other groups who had no idea and made no significant efforts to learn how vulnerable the city was to storm surges from the Atlantic.

Galveston-hurricane

A hurricane flattened Galveston, Texas, in 1900. Hurricane Ike in 2008 took out the city again. Library of Congress

What do you do when it becomes more costly to prepare for every disaster than just to take the risk? How safe is safe enough?

In many cases, you can’t prepare because no one’s willing to spend money to do this. We’ve rebuilt the levees around New Orleans, for example, but they’re right back on the same slabs. And it’s going to cost about 10 percent of the construction costs per year to maintain them.

Now where are you going to get $1.5 billion a year? So they can’t maintain it, and the next time it is challenged — and there is no doubt in my mind it will be challenged severely — it’s going to fail again, and the consequences are going to be worse because we’ve allowed more population and more infrastructure.

In aviation, which has unequaled safety records, they do predict and plan for the worst case because they can’t afford accidents. But Sully Sullenberger’s “Miracle on the Hudson,” when the pilot landed the plane on the Hudson River after flying into a flock of geese, does seem like a miracle.

It was a miracle, but it was not an accident. It was, in fact, rehearsed. That’s how the FAA was able to clear air traffic control, how he and his co-pilot, together with the flight crew, were able to get almost everything right, how the French Airbus had those backflow valves already designed in the fuselage.

We don’t normally land airplanes in water. They’re supposed to be on land, but they designed it to land in water as well, and the crew had rehearsed and planned what they would do in the event of a water landing. They are thinking about the impossible.

What warnings are going unheeded now? The antiquated levee system protecting California’s Sacramento Delta, which is the source of fresh water for 28 million of the state’s residents, comes to mind. I know you’ve been studying this.

An earthquake, a megaflood. Any of these natural disasters could rupture the delta levees and take a lot of the infrastructure — power lines, communication networks, gas pipelines, hydroelectric power systems — with it. Millions could be without power or fresh water for months. It isn’t going to be pretty, and it will knock out of commission the ninth-largest economy in the world.

And it could happen at any time.

Yeah. Tick, tick, tick.

 

Deepwater-Horizon
US Coast Guard

Bea goes back in time to explain how we might have avoided notable catastrophes of the past.

 

Deepwater Horizon, 2010

The Deepwater Horizon oil-drilling rig exploded in the Gulf of Mexico, killing 11 crewmen and igniting a fire that could not be extinguished. Two days later the rig sank, leaving the well gushing in the seabed. It ultimately leaked 210 million gallons of oil in the largest offshore spill in U.S. history.

» What was ignored? BP, the industry and federal regulators understood the potential for an uncontrolled blowout in Deepwater drilling, but they failed to heed warnings about the structural weaknesses in the cement casings that protect the well pipes. Plus, the blowout preventer hadn’t been working properly for several days.

» What would have improved the outcome? Delivering the required degree of safety consistently and ensuring that protocols were followed. Understanding that wells pumping 162,000 barrels of oil a day are under much higher pressure, and therefore are much more dangerous, than wells delivering 500 barrels a day. Building stronger protective structures to withstand these intense pressures could have prevented the disaster.

Midwest Floods, 2008

Months of rainstorms led to heavy flooding in seven Midwestern states, including Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana and Missouri, resulting in 24 deaths and more than $6 billion in damage.

» What was ignored? The lessons from floods in 1993. The increasing fragility of the aging levee system, and more people building in low-lying areas susceptible to flooding.

» What would have improved the outcome? Giving the water the room it needed to flood and not build in those areas. Building and maintaining high-quality flood protection systems in the areas that could have been protected.


Columbia Disaster, 2003 

The space shuttle disintegrated upon re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere due to missing heat shield tiles, killing all seven astronauts on board.

» What was ignored? The mantra “better, faster, cheaper” drove the management decision to “bring the bird back,” even though the U.S. Air Force had photographs showing the leading edge of the Columbia was missing heat shield tiles, which were damaged during the launch. Problems with heat shield tiles during earlier missions hadn’t been adequately addressed, and NASA ignored engineers’ requests to ground the mission until these problems were solved.

» What would have improved the outcome? Fixing heat shield tile problems uncovered during earlier missions. Develop a backup plan for fixing the shuttle in space if it is damaged and ensuring the crew’s safety. They were lucky with previous missions that had missing tiles, but they took a chance, and their luck ran out.


Exxon Valdez Crash, 1989

The Exxon Valdez oil tanker ran aground in Prince William Sound, spilling an estimated 11 million gallons of crude oil along Alaskan shores. Numerous factors complicated cleanup, including the size of the spill, the remote location and a lack of readily available equipment and effective chemical dispersants to dissolve the thick oil.

» What was ignored? The dangers of Bligh Reef, where the ship hit the rocks. Taking shortcuts to save time to get the oil to Southern California refineries. Not traveling in regulated shipping lanes.

» What would have improved the outcome? Better communication between vessel captains and traffic control centers to avoid treacherous conditions. True pollution control to improve visibility, and better preparation for cleanup.

A importância da imaginação pós-capitalista (Envolverde)

Economia
27/8/2013 – 11h47

por Ronan Burtenshaw e Aubrey Robinson, do The Irish Left Review*

david harvey 250 A importância da imaginação pós capitalista

David Harvey mergulha no estudo das contradições do sistema e busca alternativas: desmercantilização, propriedade comum, renda básica permanente, gratuidades… Foto: Divulgação/ Internet

Mês que vem completam-se cinco anos que Lehman Brothers foram protagonistas do maior caso de falência de banco na história dos EUA. O colapso sinalizou o início da Grande Depressão – a crise mais substancial do capitalismo mundial desde a 2ª Guerra Mundial. Como entender os fundamentos desse sistema agora em crise? E, com o sistema em guerra contra a classe trabalhadora, sob o disfarce da “austeridade”, como imaginar um mundo depois disso?

Poucos pensadores geraram respostas mais influentes para essas perguntas que o geógrafo marxista David Harvey. Aqui, em entrevista recente, ele fala a Ronan Burtenshaw e Aubrey Robinson sobre esses problemas.

The Irish Left Review – Você está trabalhando agora num novo livro, The Seventeen Contradictions of Capitalism [As 17 contradições do capitalismo]. Por que focar essas contradições?

David Harvey – A análise do capitalismo sugere que são contradições significativas e fundamentais. Periodicamente essas contradições saem de controle e geram uma crise. Acabamos de passar por uma crise e acho importante perguntar que contradições nos levaram à crise? Como podemos analisar a crise em termos de contradições? Uma das grandes ditos de Marx foi que uma crise é sempre resultado das contradições subjacentes. Portanto, temos de lidar com elas próprias, não com os resultados delas.

TILR – Uma das contradições a que você se dedica é a que há entre o valor de uso e o valor de troca de uma mercadoria. Por que essa contradição é tão fundamental para o capitalismo e por que você usa a moradia para ilustrá-la?

DH – Temos de começar por entender que todas as mercadorias têm um valor de uso e um valor de troca. Se tenho um bife, o valor de uso é que posso comê-lo, e o valor de troca é quanto tenho de pagar para comê-lo.

A moradia é muito interessante, nesse sentido, porque se pode entender como valor de uso que ela garante abrigo, privacidade, um mundo de relações afetivas entre pessoas, uma lista enorme de coisas para as quais usamos a casa. Houve tempo em que cada um construía a própria casa e a casa não tinha valor de troca. Depois, do século 18 em diante, aparece a construção de casas para especulação – construíam-se sobrados georgianos [reinado do rei George, na Inglaterra] para serem vendidos. E as casas passaram a ser valores de troca para consumidores, como poupança. Se compro uma casa e pago a hipoteca, acabo proprietário da casa. Tenho pois um bem, um patrimônio. Assim se gera uma política curiosa – “não no meu quintal”, “não quero ter gente na porta ao lado que não se pareça comigo”. E começa a segregação nos mercados imobiliários, porque as pessoas querem proteger o valor de troca dos seus bens.

Então, há cerca de 30 anos, as pessoas começaram a usar a moradia como forma de obter ganhos de especulação. Você podia comprar uma casa e “passar adiante” – compra uma casa por £200 mil, depois de um ano consegue £250 mil por ela. Você ganha £50 mil, por que não? O valor de troca passou a ser dominante. E assim se chega ao boom especulativo. Em 2000, depois do colapso dos mercados globais de ações, o excesso de capital passou a fluir para a moradia. É um tipo interessante de mercado. Você compra uma casa, o preço da moradia sobe você diz “os preços das casas estão subindo, tenho de comprar uma casa”, mas outro compra antes de você. Gera-se uma bolha imobiliária. As pessoas ficam presas na bolha e a bolha explode. Então, de repente, muitas pessoas descobrem que já não podem usufruir do valor de uso da moradia, porque o sistema do valor de troca destruiu o valor de uso.

E surge a pergunta: é boa ideia permitir que o valor de uso da moradia, que é crucial para o povo, seja comandado por um sistema louco de valor de troca? O problema não surge só na moradia, mas em coisas como educação e atenção à saúde. Em vários desses campos, liberamos a dinâmica do valor de troca, sob a teoria de que ele garantirá o valor de uso, mas o que se vê frequentemente, é que ele faz explodir o valor de uso e as pessoas acabam sem receber boa atenção à saúde, boa educação e boa moradia. Por isso me parece tão importante prestar atenção à diferença entre valor de uso e valor de troca.

TILR – Outra contradição que você comenta envolve um processo de alternar, ao longo do tempo, entre a ênfase na oferta, na produção, e ênfase na demanda, pelo consumo, que se vê no capitalismo. Pode falar sobre como esse processo apareceu no século 20 e por que é tão importante?

DH – Uma grande questão é manter uma demanda adequada de mercado, de modo que seja possível absorver o que for que o capital esteja produzindo. Outra, é criar as condições sob as quais o capital possa produzir com lucros.

Essas condições de produção lucrativa quase sempre significam suprimir a força de trabalho. Na medida em que se reduzem salários – pagando salários cada vez menores –, as taxas de lucro sobem. Portanto, do lado da produção, quanto mais arrochados os salários, melhor. Os lucros aumentam. Mas surge o problema: quem comprará o que é produzido? Com o trabalho arrochado, onde fica o mercado? Se o arrocho é excessivo, sobrevém uma crise, porque deixa de haver demanda suficiente que absorva o produto.

A certa altura, a interpretação generalizada dizia que o problema, na crise dos anos 1930s foi falta de demanda. Houve então uma mudança na direção de investimentos conduzidos pelo Estado, para construir novas estradas, o WPA [serviços públicos, sob o New Deal] e tudo aquilo. Diziam que “revitalizaremos a economia” com demanda financiada por dívidas e, ao fazer isso, viraram-se para a teoria Keynesiana. Saiu-se dos anos 1930s com uma nova e forte capacidade para gerenciar a demanda, com o Estado muito envolvido na economia. Resultado disso, houve fortes taxas de crescimento, mas as fortes taxas de crescimento vieram acompanhadas de maior poder para os trabalhadores, com salários crescentes e sindicatos fortes.

Sindicatos fortes e altos salários significam que as taxas de lucro começam a cair. O capital entra em crise, porque não está reprimindo suficientemente os trabalhadores. E o “automático” do sistema dá o alarme. Nos anos 1970s, voltaram-se na direção de Milton Friedman e da Escola de Chicago. Passou a ser dominante na teoria econômica, e as pessoas começaram a observar a ponta da oferta – sobretudo os salários. E veio o arrocho dos salários, que começou nos anos 1970s. Ronald Reagan ataca os controladores de tráfego aéreo; Margaret Thatcher caça os mineiros; Pinochet assassina militantes da esquerda. O trabalho é atacado por todos os lados – e a taxa de lucros sobe. Quando se chega aos anos 1980s, a taxa de lucro dá um salto, porque os salários estão sendo arrochados e o capital está se dando muito bem. Mas surge o problema: a quem vender aquela coisa toda que está sendo produzida.

Nos anos 1990s tudo isso foi recoberto pela economia do endividamento. Começaram a encorajar as pessoas a tomarem empréstimos – começou uma economia de cartão de crédito e uma economia de moradia pesadamente financiada por hipotecas. Assim se mascarou o fato de que, na realidade, não havia demanda alguma. Em 2007-8, esse arranjo também desmoronou.
O capital enfrenta essa pergunta, “trabalha-se pelo lado da oferta ou pelo lado da demanda”? Minha ideia, para um mundo anticapitalista, é que é preciso unificar tudo isso. Temos de voltar ao valor de uso. De que valores de uso as pessoas precisam e como organizar a produção de tal modo que satisfaça à demanda por aqueles valores de uso?

TILR – Hoje, tudo indica que estamos em crise pelo lado da oferta. Mas a austeridade é tentativa de encontrar solução pelo lado da demanda. Como resolver isso?

DH – É preciso diferenciar entre os interesses do capitalismo como um todo e o que é interesse especificamente da classe capitalista, ou de uma parte dela. Durante essa crise, a classe capitalista deu-se muitíssimo bem. Alguns saíram queimados, mas a maior parte saiu-se extremamente bem. Segundo estudo recente, nos países da OECD a desigualdade econômica cresceu significativamente desde o início da crise, o que significa que os benefícios da crise concentraram-se nas classes mais ricas. Em outras palavras, os ricos não querem sair da crise, porque a crise lhes traz muitos lucros.
A população como um todo está sofrendo, o capitalismo como um todo não está saudável, mas a classe capitalista – sobretudo uma oligarquia que há ali – está muito bem. Há várias situações nas quais capitalistas individuais operando conforme os interesses de sua classe, podem de fato fazer coisas que agridem muito gravemente todo o sistema capitalista. Minha opinião é que, hoje, estamos vivendo uma dessas situações.

TILR – Você tem repetido várias vezes, recentemente, que uma das coisas que a esquerda deveria estar fazendo é usar nossa imaginação pós-capitalista, e começar por perguntar como, afinal, será um mundo pós-capitalista. Por que isso lhe parece tão importante? E, na sua opinião, como, afinal, será um mundo pós-capitalista?

DH – É importante, porque há muito tempo trombeteia-se nos nossos ouvidos que não há alternativa. Uma das primeiras coisas que temos de fazer é pensar a alternativa, para começar a andar na direção de criá-la.

A esquerda tornou-se tão cúmplice com o neoliberalismo, que já não se vê diferença entre os partidos políticos da esquerda e os da direita, se não em questões nacionais ou sociais. Na economia política não há grande diferença. Temos de encontrar uma economia política alternativa ao modo como funciona o capitalismo. E temos alguns princípios. Por isso as contradições são interessantes. Examina-se cada uma delas, por exemplo, a contradição entre valor de uso e valor de troca e se diz – “o mundo alternativo é mundo no qual se fornecem valores de uso”. Assim podemos nos concentrar nos valores de uso e tentar reduzir o papel dos valores de troca.

Ou, na questão monetária – claro que precisamos de dinheiro para que as mercadorias circulem. Mas o problema do dinheiro é que pessoas privadas podem apropriar-se dele. O dinheiro torna-se uma modalidade de poder pessoal e, em seguida, um desejo-fetiche. As pessoas mobilizam a vida na procura por esse dinheiro, até quem não sabe que o faz. Então, temos de mudar o sistema monetário – ou se taxam todas as mais-valias que as pessoas comecem a obter ou criamos um sistema monetário no qual a moeda se dissolve e não pode ser entesourada, como o sistema de milhagem aérea.

Mas para fazer isso, é preciso superar a dicotomia estado/propriedade privada, e propor um regime de propriedade comum. E, num dado momento, é preciso gerar uma renda básica para o povo, porque se você tem uma forma de dinheiro antipoupança é preciso dar garantia às pessoas. Você tem de dizer “você não precisa poupar para os dias de chuva, porque você sempre receberá essa renda básica, não importa o que aconteça”. É preciso dar segurança às pessoas desse modo, não por economias privadas, pessoais.

Mudando cada uma dessas coisas contraditórias chega-se a um tipo diferente de sociedade, que é muito mais racional que a que temos hoje. Hoje, o que acontece é produzimos e, em seguida, tentamos persuadir os consumidores a consumir o que foi produzido, queiram ou não e precisem ou não do que é produzido. Em vez disso, temos de descobrir quais os desejos e vontades básicas das pessoas e mobilizar o sistema de produção para produzir aquilo. Se se elimina a dinâmica do valor de troca, é possível reorganizar todo o sistema de outro modo. Pode-se imaginar a direção na qual se moverá uma alternativa socialista, se nos afastamos da forma dominante da acumulação de capital que hoje comanda tudo.

* Esse é um trecho da entrevista. A íntegra da entrevista será publicada na edição de outono de The Irish Left Review./ Tradução Vila Vudu.

** Publicado originalmente no site Irish Left Review e retirado do site Outras Palavras.

(Outra Palavras)

Climate Panel Cites Near Certainty on Warming (N.Y.Times)

Tim Wimborne/Reuters. A new report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that the authors are now 95 percent to 100 percent confident that human activity is the primary influence on planetary warming.

By 

Published: August 19, 2013

An international panel of scientists has found with near certainty that human activity is the cause of most of the temperature increases of recent decades, and warns that sea levels could conceivably rise by more than three feet by the end of the century if emissions continue at a runaway pace.

The level of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, is up 41 percent since the Industrial Revolution. Emissions from facilities like coal-fired power plants contribute.

The scientists, whose findings are reported in a draft summary of the next big United Nations climate report, largely dismiss a recent slowdown in the pace of warming, which is often cited by climate change doubters, attributing it most likely to short-term factors.

The report emphasizes that the basic facts about future climate change are more established than ever, justifying the rise in global concern. It also reiterates that the consequences of escalating emissions are likely to be profound.

“It is extremely likely that human influence on climate caused more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010,” the draft report says. “There is high confidence that this has warmed the ocean, melted snow and ice, raised global mean sea level and changed some climate extremes in the second half of the 20th century.”

The draft comes from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a body of several hundred scientists that won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007, along with Al Gore. Its summaries, published every five or six years, are considered the definitive assessment of the risks of climate change, and they influence the actions of governments around the world. Hundreds of billions of dollars are being spent on efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions, for instance, largely on the basis of the group’s findings.

The coming report will be the fifth major assessment from the group, created in 1988. Each report has found greater certainty that the planet is warming and greater likelihood that humans are the primary cause.

The 2007 report found “unequivocal” evidence of warming, but hedged a little on responsibility, saying the chances were at least 90 percent that human activities were the cause. The language in the new draft is stronger, saying the odds are at least 95 percent that humans are the principal cause.

On sea level, which is one of the biggest single worries about climate change, the new report goes well beyond the assessment published in 2007, which largely sidestepped the question of how much the ocean could rise this century.

The new report also reiterates a core difficulty that has plagued climate science for decades: While averages for such measures as temperature can be predicted with some confidence on a global scale, the coming changes still cannot be forecast reliably on a local scale. That leaves governments and businesses fumbling in the dark as they try to plan ahead.

On another closely watched issue, the scientists retreated slightly from their 2007 position.

Regarding the question of how much the planet could warm if carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere doubled, the previous report largely ruled out any number below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. The new draft says the rise could be as low as 2.7 degrees, essentially restoring a scientific consensus that prevailed from 1979 to 2007.

But the draft says only that the low number is possible, not that it is likely. Many climate scientists see only a remote chance that the warming will be that low, with the published evidence suggesting that an increase above 5 degrees Fahrenheit is more likely if carbon dioxide doubles.

The level of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, is up 41 percent since the Industrial Revolution, and if present trends continue it could double in a matter of decades.

Warming the entire planet by 5 degrees Fahrenheit would add a stupendous amount of energy to the climate system. Scientists say the increase would be greater over land and might exceed 10 degrees at the poles.

They add that such an increase would lead to widespread melting of land ice, extreme heat waves, difficulty growing food and massive changes in plant and animal life, probably including a wave of extinctions.

The new document is not final and will not become so until an intensive, closed-door negotiating session among scientists and government leaders in Stockholm in late September. But if the past is any guide, most of the core findings of the document will survive that final review.

The document was leaked over the weekend after it was sent to a large group of people who had signed up to review it. It was first reported on in detail by the Reuters news agency, and The New York Times obtained a copy independently to verify its contents.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change does no original research, but instead periodically assesses and summarizes the published scientific literature on climate change.

The draft document “is likely to change in response to comments from governments received in recent weeks and will also be considered by governments and scientists at a four-day approval session at the end of September,” the panel’s spokesman, Jonathan Lynn, said in a statement Monday. “It is therefore premature and could be misleading to attempt to draw conclusions from it.”

After winning the Nobel Peace Prize six years ago, the group became a political target for climate doubters, who helped identify minor errors in the 2007 report. This time, the panel adopted rigorous procedures in the hope of preventing such mistakes.

Some climate doubters challenge the idea that the earth is warming at all; others concede that it is, but deny human responsibility; still others acknowledge a human role, but assert that the warming is likely to be limited and the impacts manageable. Every major scientific academy in the world has warned that global warming is a serious problem.

The panel shifted to a wider range for the potential warming, dropping the plausible low end to 2.7 degrees, after a wave of recent studies saying higher estimates were unlikely. But those studies are contested, and scientists at Stockholm are likely to debate whether to stick with that language.

Michael E. Mann, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University, said he feared the intergovernmental panel, in writing its draft, had been influenced by criticism from climate doubters, who advocate even lower numbers. “I think the I.P.C.C. on this point has once again erred on the side of understating the degree of the likely changes,” Dr. Mann said.

However, Christopher B. Field, a researcher at the Carnegie Institution for Science who serves on the panel but was not directly involved in the new draft, said the group had to reflect the full range of plausible scientific views.

“I think that the I.P.C.C. has a tradition of being very conservative,” Dr. Field said. “They really want the story to be right.”

Regarding the likely rise in sea level over the coming century, the new report lays out several possibilities. In the most optimistic, the world’s governments would prove far more successful at getting emissions under control than they have been in the recent past, helping to limit the total warming.

In that circumstance, sea level could be expected to rise as little as 10 inches by the end of the century, the report found. That is a bit more than the eight-inch increase in the 20th century, which proved manageable even though it caused severe erosion along the world’s shorelines.

At the other extreme, the report considers a chain of events in which emissions continue to increase at a swift pace. Under those conditions, sea level could be expected to rise at least 21 inches by 2100 and might increase a bit more than three feet, the draft report said.

Hundreds of millions of people live near sea level, and either figure would represent a challenge for humanity, scientists say. But a three-foot rise in particular would endanger many of the world’s great cities — among them New York; London; Shanghai; Venice; Sydney, Australia; Miami; and New Orleans.

A version of this article appears in print on August 20, 2013, on page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: Climate Panel Cites Near Certainty on Warming.

The Battle Over Global Warming Is All in Your Head (Time)

Despite the fact that more people now acknowledge that climate change represents a significant threat to human well-being, this has yet to translate into any meaningful action. Psychologists may have an answer as to why this is

By , Aug. 19, 2013

165161414
ANDREY SMIRNOV/AFP/GETTY IMAGES. Climate campaigns, like this one from Greenpeace in Moscow, have failed to galvanize public support for strong climate action

Today the scientific community is in almost total agreement that the earth’s climate is changing as a result of human activity, and that this represents a huge threat to the planet and to us. According to a Pew survey conducted in March, however, public opinion lags behind the scientific conclusion, with only 69% of those surveyed accepting the view that the earth is warming — and only 1 in 4 Americans see global warming as a major threat. Still, 69% is a solid majority, which begs the question, Why aren’t we doing anything about it?

This political inertia in the face of unprecedented threat is the most fundamental challenge to tackling climate change. Climate scientists and campaigners have long debated how to better communicate the message to nonexperts so that climate science can be translated into action. According to Christopher Rapley, professor of climate science at University College London, the usual tactic of climate experts to provide the public with information isn’t enough because “it does not address key underlying causes.” We are all bombarded with the evidence of climate change on an almost a daily basis, from new studies and data to direct experiences of freakish weather events like last year’s epic drought in the U.S. The information is almost unavoidable.

If it’s not a data deficit that’s preventing people from doing more on global warming, what is it? Blame our brains. Renee Lertzman, an applied researcher who focuses on the psychological dimensions of sustainability, explains that the kind of systemic threat that climate change poses to humans is “unique both psychologically and socially.” We face a minefield of mental barriers and issues that prevent us from confronting the threat.

For some, the answer lies in cognitive science. Daniel Gilbert, a professor of psychology at Harvard, has written about why our inability to deal with climate change is due in part to the way our mind is wired. Gilbert describes four key reasons ranging from the fact that global warming doesn’t take a human form — making it difficult for us to think of it as an enemy — to our brains’ failure to accurately perceive gradual change as opposed to rapid shifts. Climate change has occurred slowly enough for our minds to normalize it, which is precisely what makes it a deadly threat, as Gilbert writes, “because it fails to trip the brain’s alarm, leaving us soundly asleep in a burning bed.”

Robert Gifford, a professor of psychology and environmental studies at the University of Victoria in Canada, also picks up on the point about our brains’ difficulty in grasping climate change as a threat. Gifford refers to this and other psychological barriers to mitigating climate change as “dragons of inaction.” Since authoring a paperon the subject in 2011 in which he outlined seven main barriers, or dragons, he has found many more. “We’re up to around 30,” he notes. “Now it’s time to think about how we can slay these dragons.” Gifford lists factors such as limited cognition or ignorance of the problem, ideologies or worldviews that may prevent action, social comparisons with other people and perceived inequity (the “Why should we change if X corporation or Y country won’t?”) and the perceived risks of changing our behavior.

Gifford is reluctant to pick out one barrier as being more powerful or limiting than another. “If I had to name one, I would nominate the lack of perceived behavioral control; ‘I’m only one person, what can I do?’ is certainly a big one.” For many, the first challenge will be in recognizing which dragons they have to deal with before they can overcome them. “If you don’t know what your problem is, you don’t know what the solution is,” says Gifford.

Yet this approach can only work if people are prepared to acknowledge that they have a problem. But for those of us who understand that climate change is a problem yet make little effort to cut the number of overseas trips we make or the amount of meat we consume, neither apathy nor denial really explains the dissonance between our actions and beliefs. Lertzman has come to the conclusion that this is not because of apathy — a lack of feeling — but because of the simple fact that we care an overwhelming amount about both the planet and our way of life, and we find that conflict too painful to bear. Our apparent apathy is just a defense mechanism in the face of this psychic pain.

“We’re reluctant to come to terms with the fact that what we love and enjoy and what gives us a sense of who we are is also now bound up with the most unimaginable devastation,” says Lertzman. “When we don’t process the pain of that, that’s when we get stuck and can’t move forward.” Lertzman refers to this inability to mourn as “environmental melancholia,” and points to South Africa’s postapartheid Truth and Reconciliation Commission as an example of how to effectively deal with this collective pain. “I’m not saying there should be one for climate or carbon, but there’s a lot to be said for providing a means for people to talk together about climate change, to make it socially acceptable to talk about it.”

Rosemary Randall, a trained psychotherapist, has organized something close to this. She runs the U.K.-based Carbon Conversations, a program that brings people together to talk in a group setting about ways of halving their personal carbon footprint. Writing in Aeon, an online magazine, Randall suggests that climate change is such a disturbing subject, that “like death, it can raise fears and anxieties that people feel have no place in polite conversation.” Randall acknowledges that while psychology and psychoanalysis aren’t the sole solutions to tackling climate change, “they do offer an important way of thinking about the problem.”

Lertzman says the mainstream climate-change community has been slow to register the value of psychology and social analysis in addressing global warming. “I think there’s a spark of some interest, but also a wariness of what this means, what it might look like,” she notes. Gifford says otherwise, however, explaining that he has never collaborated with other disciplines as much as he does now. “I may be a little biased because I’m invested in working in it, but in my view, climate change, and not mental health, is the biggest psychological problem we face today because it affects 100% of the global population.”

Despite the pain, shame, difficulty and minefield of other psychological barriers that we face in fully addressing climate change, both Lertzman and Gifford are still upbeat about our ability to face up to the challenge. “It’s patronizing to say that climate change is too big or abstract an issue for people to deal with,” says Lertzman. “There can’t be something about the human mind that stops us grappling with these issues given that so many people already are — maybe that’s what we should be focusing on instead.”

Read more: http://science.time.com/2013/08/19/in-denial-about-the-climate-the-psychological-battle-over-global-warming/#ixzz2chLdZ25H

They Finally Tested The ‘Prisoner’s Dilemma’ On Actual Prisoners — And The Results Were Not What You Would Expect (Business Insider Australia)

, 21 July 2013

Alcatraz Jail Prison

The “prisoner’s dilemma” is a familiar concept to just about anybody that took Econ 101.

The basic version goes like this. Two criminals are arrested, but police can’t convict either on the primary charge, so they plan to sentence them to a year in jail on a lesser charge. Each of the prisoners, who can’t communicate with each other, are given the option of testifying against their partner. If they testify, and their partner remains silent, the partner gets 3 years and they go free. If they both testify, both get two. If both remain silent, they each get one.

In game theory, betraying your partner, or “defecting” is always the dominant strategy as it always has a slightly higher payoff in a simultaneous game. It’s what’s known as a “Nash Equilibrium,” after Nobel Prize winning mathematician and A Beautiful Mind subject John Nash.

In sequential games, where players know each other’s previous behaviour and have the opportunity to punish each other, defection is the dominant strategy as well.

However, on a Pareto basis, the best outcome for both players is mutual cooperation.

Yet no one’s ever actually run the experiment on real prisoners before, until two University of Hamburg economists tried it out in a recent study comparing the behaviour of inmates and students.

Surprisingly, for the classic version of the game, prisoners were far more cooperative  than expected.

Menusch Khadjavi and Andreas Lange put the famous game to the test for the first time ever, putting a group of prisoners in Lower Saxony’s primary women’s prison, as well as students through both simultaneous and sequential versions of the game.The payoffs obviously weren’t years off sentences, but euros for students, and the equivalent value in coffee or cigarettes for prisoners.

They expected, building off of game theory and behavioural economic research that show humans are more cooperative than the purely rational model that economists traditionally use, that there would be a fair amount of first-mover cooperation, even in the simultaneous simulation where there’s no way to react to the other player’s decisions.

And even in the sequential game, where you get a higher payoff for betraying a cooperative first mover, a fair amount will still reciprocate.

As for the difference between student and prisoner behaviour, you’d expect that a prison population might be more jaded and distrustful, and therefore more likely to defect.

The results went exactly the other way for the simultaneous game, only 37% of students cooperate. Inmates cooperated 56% of the time.

On a pair basis, only 13% of student pairs managed to get the best mutual outcome and cooperate, whereas 30% of prisoners do.

In the sequential game, way more students (63%) cooperate, so the mutual cooperation rate skyrockets to 39%. For prisoners, it remains about the same.

What’s interesting is that the simultaneous game requires far more blind trust out from both parties, and you don’t have a chance to retaliate or make up for being betrayed later. Yet prisoners are still significantly more cooperative in that scenario.

Obviously the payoffs aren’t as serious as a year or three of your life, but the paper still demonstrates that prisoners aren’t necessarily as calculating, self-interested, and un-trusting as you might expect, and as behavioural economists have argued for years, as mathematically interesting as Nash equilibrium might be, they don’t line up with real behaviour all that well.

Vendettas, not war? Unpicking why our ancestors killed (New Scientist)

20:03 18 July 2013 by Bob Holmes

Is war in our blood? Perhaps not, if you believe a controversial new study that suggests violence in primitive cultures is overwhelmingly the result of personal squabbles, rather than organised violence between two different groups. The finding contradicts the popular view that humans have evolved to be innately warlike.

In recent years, many anthropologists and evolutionary biologists have come to believe that warfare arose deep in humans’ evolutionary past. In part that is because even chimpanzees exhibit this kind of intergroup violence, which suggests the trait shares a common origin. Proponents of this view also point to the occurrence of war in traditional hunter-gatherer societies today, such as some notoriously quarrelsome groups in the Amazon, and hence to its likely prevalence in early human societies.

Yet the archaeological record of warfare in early humans is sketchy, and not all contemporary hunter-gatherers make war.

In a bid to resolve the issue, Douglas Fry and Patrik Soderberg of Åbo Akademi University in Vasa, Finland, turned to the Ethnographic Atlas, a widely used database that was created in the 1960s to provide an unbiased cross-cultural sample of primitive societies.

From this, Fry and Soderberg selected the 21 societies that were exclusively nomadic hunter-gatherers – groups that upped sticks to wherever conditions were best – without livestock or social class divisions. They reasoned that these groups would most closely resemble early human societies.

Hello, sailor

The researchers then sifted through the early ethnographic accounts of each of these societies – the earliest of which was from the 17th century, while most were from the 19th and 20th centuries – and noted every reference to violent deaths, classifying them by how many people were involved and who they were. The records include accounts of events such as a man killing a rival for a woman, revenge killings for earlier deaths, and killing of outsiders such as shipwrecked sailors.

The pair found that in almost every society, deaths due to violence were rare – and the vast majority of those were one-on-one killings better classified as homicides than as warfare. Indeed, for 20 of the 21 societies, only 15 per cent of killings happened between two different groups. The exception was the Tiwi people of northern Australia, where intergroup feuds and retaliatory killings were common.

Fry and Soderberg say this suggests that warfare is rare in such primitive societies and may instead have become common only after the rise of more complex societies just a few thousand years ago. If so, then warfare would have likely played only a minor role in human evolution.

Anecdotal evidence

Not everyone agrees. For one thing, the data set Fry and Soderberg used is essentially a collection of anecdotes rather than a systematic survey of causes of death, says Kim Hill, an anthropologist at Arizona State University in Tempe. They are relying on the people who originally noted down these events to have included all the important details.

Moreover, they focus only on nomadic foragers and exclude any sedentary foraging societies – groups that would have foraged from a permanent base. Yet these sedentary foragers would probably have occupied the richest habitats and so would have been most likely to be involved in wars over territory, says Richard Wrangham, an anthropologist at Harvard University.

Fry and Soderberg are probably correct that most violent deaths are the result of homicide, not warfare – that was even true for the US during the Vietnam War, says Sam Bowles at the Santa Fe Institute in New Mexico. He has put forward the idea that altruism evolved out of the need for our ancestors to cooperate during times of war. But even if warfare is relatively uncommon, it can still exert an important evolutionary force, he says.

Journal reference: Science, DOI:10.1126/science.1235675

Climate Change Deniers Using Dirty Tricks from ‘Tobacco Wars’ (Science Daily)

July 4, 2013 — Fossil fuel companies have been funding smear campaigns that raise doubts about climate change, writes John Sauven in the latest issue of Index on Censorship magazine.

Environmental campaigner Sauven argues: “Some of the characters involved have previously worked to deny the reality of the hole in the ozone layer, acid rain and the link between tobacco and lung cancer. And the tactics they are applying are largely the same as those they used in the tobacco wars. Doubt is still their product.”

Governments around the world have also attempted to silence scientists who have raised concerns about climate change. Tactics used have included: the UK government spending millions infiltrating peaceful environmental organisations; Canadian government scientists barred from communicating with journalists without media officers; and US federal scientists pressured to remove words ‘global warming’ and ‘climate change’ from reports under the Bush administration.

Writing about government corruption in the Indian mining industry, Sauven says: “It will be in these expanding economies that the battle over the Earth’s future will be won or lost. And as in the tobacco wars, the fight over clean energy is likely to be a dirty one.”

Journal Reference:

  1. J. Sauven. Why can’t we tell the truth about climate change? Index on Censorship, 2013; 42 (2): 55 DOI:10.1177/0306422013494282

The Science of Why We Don’t Believe Science (Mother Jones)

How our brains fool us on climate, creationism, and the end of the world.

By  | Mon Apr. 18, 2011 3:00 AM PDT


“A MAN WITH A CONVICTION is a hard man to change. Tell him you disagree and he turns away. Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point.” So wrote the celebrated Stanford University psychologist Leon Festinger [1] (PDF), in a passage that might have been referring to climate change denial—the persistent rejection, on the part of so many Americans today, of what we know about global warming and its human causes. But it was too early for that—this was the 1950s—and Festinger was actually describing a famous case study [2] in psychology.

Festinger and several of his colleagues had infiltrated the Seekers, a small Chicago-area cult whose members thought they were communicating with aliens—including one, “Sananda,” who they believed was the astral incarnation of Jesus Christ. The group was led by Dorothy Martin, a Dianetics devotee who transcribed the interstellar messages through automatic writing.

Through her, the aliens had given the precise date of an Earth-rending cataclysm: December 21, 1954. Some of Martin’s followers quit their jobs and sold their property, expecting to be rescued by a flying saucer when the continent split asunder and a new sea swallowed much of the United States. The disciples even went so far as to remove brassieres and rip zippers out of their trousers—the metal, they believed, would pose a danger on the spacecraft.

Festinger and his team were with the cult when the prophecy failed. First, the “boys upstairs” (as the aliens were sometimes called) did not show up and rescue the Seekers. Then December 21 arrived without incident. It was the moment Festinger had been waiting for: How would people so emotionally invested in a belief system react, now that it had been soundly refuted?

Read also: the truth about Climategate. [3]. Read also: the truth about Climategate [4].

At first, the group struggled for an explanation. But then rationalization set in. A new message arrived, announcing that they’d all been spared at the last minute. Festinger summarized the extraterrestrials’ new pronouncement: “The little group, sitting all night long, had spread so much light that God had saved the world from destruction.” Their willingness to believe in the prophecy had saved Earth from the prophecy!

From that day forward, the Seekers, previously shy of the press and indifferent toward evangelizing, began to proselytize. “Their sense of urgency was enormous,” wrote Festinger. The devastation of all they had believed had made them even more certain of their beliefs.

In the annals of denial, it doesn’t get much more extreme than the Seekers. They lost their jobs, the press mocked them, and there were efforts to keep them away from impressionable young minds. But while Martin’s space cult might lie at on the far end of the spectrum of human self-delusion, there’s plenty to go around. And since Festinger’s day, an array of new discoveries in psychology and neuroscience has further demonstrated how our preexisting beliefs, far more than any new facts, can skew our thoughts and even color what we consider our most dispassionate and logical conclusions. This tendency toward so-called “motivated reasoning [5]” helps explain why we find groups so polarized over matters where the evidence is so unequivocal: climate change, vaccines, “death panels,” the birthplace and religion of the president [6] (PDF), and much else. It would seem that expecting people to be convinced by the facts flies in the face of, you know, the facts.

The theory of motivated reasoning builds on a key insight of modern neuroscience [7] (PDF): Reasoning is actually suffused with emotion (or what researchers often call “affect”). Not only are the two inseparable, but our positive or negative feelings about people, things, and ideas arise much more rapidly than our conscious thoughts, in a matter of milliseconds—fast enough to detect with an EEG device, but long before we’re aware of it. That shouldn’t be surprising: Evolution required us to react very quickly to stimuli in our environment. It’s a “basic human survival skill,” explains political scientist Arthur Lupia[8] of the University of Michigan. We push threatening information away; we pull friendly information close. We apply fight-or-flight reflexes not only to predators, but to data itself.

We apply fight-or-flight reflexes not only to predators, but to data itself.

We’re not driven only by emotions, of course—we also reason, deliberate. But reasoning comes later, works slower—and even then, it doesn’t take place in an emotional vacuum. Rather, our quick-fire emotions can set us on a course of thinking that’s highly biased, especially on topics we care a great deal about.

Consider a person who has heard about a scientific discovery that deeply challenges her belief in divine creation—a new hominid, say, that confirms our evolutionary origins. What happens next, explains political scientist Charles Taber [9] of Stony Brook University, is a subconscious negative response to the new information—and that response, in turn, guides the type of memories and associations formed in the conscious mind. “They retrieve thoughts that are consistent with their previous beliefs,” says Taber, “and that will lead them to build an argument and challenge what they’re hearing.”

In other words, when we think we’re reasoning, we may instead be rationalizing. Or to use an analogy offered by University of Virginia psychologist Jonathan Haidt [10]: We may think we’re being scientists, but we’re actually being lawyers [11] (PDF). Our “reasoning” is a means to a predetermined end—winning our “case”—and is shot through with biases. They include “confirmation bias,” in which we give greater heed to evidence and arguments that bolster our beliefs, and “disconfirmation bias,” in which we expend disproportionate energy trying to debunk or refute views and arguments that we find uncongenial.

That’s a lot of jargon, but we all understand these mechanisms when it comes to interpersonal relationships. If I don’t want to believe that my spouse is being unfaithful, or that my child is a bully, I can go to great lengths to explain away behavior that seems obvious to everybody else—everybody who isn’t too emotionally invested to accept it, anyway. That’s not to suggest that we aren’t also motivated to perceive the world accurately—we are. Or that we never change our minds—we do. It’s just that we have other important goals besides accuracy—including identity affirmation and protecting one’s sense of self—and often those make us highly resistant to changing our beliefs when the facts say we should.

Modern science originated from an attempt to weed out such subjective lapses—what that great 17th century theorist of the scientific method, Francis Bacon, dubbed the “idols of the mind.” Even if individual researchers are prone to falling in love with their own theories, the broader processes of peer review and institutionalized skepticism are designed to ensure that, eventually, the best ideas prevail.

Scientific evidence is highly susceptible to misinterpretation. Giving ideologues scientific data that’s relevant to their beliefs is like unleashing them in the motivated-reasoning equivalent of a candy store.

Our individual responses to the conclusions that science reaches, however, are quite another matter. Ironically, in part because researchers employ so much nuance and strive to disclose all remaining sources of uncertainty, scientific evidence is highly susceptible to selective reading and misinterpretation. Giving ideologues or partisans scientific data that’s relevant to their beliefs is like unleashing them in the motivated-reasoning equivalent of a candy store.

Sure enough, a large number of psychological studies have shown that people respond to scientific or technical evidence in ways that justify their preexisting beliefs. In a classic 1979 experiment [12] (PDF), pro- and anti-death penalty advocates were exposed to descriptions of two fake scientific studies: one supporting and one undermining the notion that capital punishment deters violent crime and, in particular, murder. They were also shown detailed methodological critiques of the fake studies—and in a scientific sense, neither study was stronger than the other. Yet in each case, advocates more heavily criticized the study whose conclusions disagreed with their own, while describing the study that was more ideologically congenial as more “convincing.”

Since then, similar results have been found for how people respond to “evidence” about affirmative action, gun control, the accuracy of gay stereotypes [13], and much else. Even when study subjects are explicitly instructed to be unbiased and even-handed about the evidence, they often fail.

And it’s not just that people twist or selectively read scientific evidence to support their preexisting views. According to research by Yale Law School professor Dan Kahan [14] and his colleagues, people’s deep-seated views about morality, and about the way society should be ordered, strongly predict whom they consider to be a legitimate scientific expert in the first place—and thus where they consider “scientific consensus” to lie on contested issues.

In Kahan’s research [15] (PDF), individuals are classified, based on their cultural values, as either “individualists” or “communitarians,” and as either “hierarchical” or “egalitarian” in outlook. (Somewhat oversimplifying, you can think of hierarchical individualists as akin to conservative Republicans, and egalitarian communitarians as liberal Democrats.) In one study, subjects in the different groups were asked to help a close friend determine the risks associated with climate change, sequestering nuclear waste, or concealed carry laws: “The friend tells you that he or she is planning to read a book about the issue but would like to get your opinion on whether the author seems like a knowledgeable and trustworthy expert.” A subject was then presented with the résumé of a fake expert “depicted as a member of the National Academy of Sciences who had earned a Ph.D. in a pertinent field from one elite university and who was now on the faculty of another.” The subject was then shown a book excerpt by that “expert,” in which the risk of the issue at hand was portrayed as high or low, well-founded or speculative. The results were stark: When the scientist’s position stated that global warming is real and human-caused, for instance, only 23 percent of hierarchical individualists agreed the person was a “trustworthy and knowledgeable expert.” Yet 88 percent of egalitarian communitarians accepted the same scientist’s expertise. Similar divides were observed on whether nuclear waste can be safely stored underground and whether letting people carry guns deters crime. (The alliances did not always hold. Inanother study [16] (PDF), hierarchs and communitarians were in favor of laws that would compel the mentally ill to accept treatment, whereas individualists and egalitarians were opposed.)

Head-on attempts to persuade can sometimes trigger a backfire effect, where people not only fail to change their minds when confronted with the facts—they may hold their wrong views more tenaciously than ever.

In other words, people rejected the validity of a scientific source because its conclusion contradicted their deeply held views—and thus the relative risks inherent in each scenario. A hierarchal individualist finds it difficult to believe that the things he prizes (commerce, industry, a man’s freedom to possess a gun to defend his family [16]) (PDF) could lead to outcomes deleterious to society. Whereas egalitarian communitarians tend to think that the free market causes harm, that patriarchal families mess up kids, and that people can’t handle their guns. The study subjects weren’t “anti-science”—not in their own minds, anyway. It’s just that “science” was whatever they wanted it to be. “We’ve come to a misadventure, a bad situation where diverse citizens, who rely on diverse systems of cultural certification, are in conflict,” says Kahan [17].

And that undercuts the standard notion that the way to persuade people is via evidence and argument. In fact, head-on attempts to persuade can sometimes trigger a backfire effect, where people not only fail to change their minds when confronted with the facts—they may hold their wrong views more tenaciously than ever.

Take, for instance, the question of whether Saddam Hussein possessed hidden weapons of mass destruction just before the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. When political scientists Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler showed subjects fake newspaper articles [18] (PDF) in which this was first suggested (in a 2004 quote from President Bush) and then refuted (with the findings of the Bush-commissioned Iraq Survey Group report, which found no evidence of active WMD programs in pre-invasion Iraq), they found that conservatives were more likely than before to believe the claim. (The researchers also tested how liberals responded when shown that Bush did not actually “ban” embryonic stem-cell research. Liberals weren’t particularly amenable to persuasion, either, but no backfire effect was observed.)

Another study gives some inkling of what may be going through people’s minds when they resist persuasion. Northwestern University sociologist Monica Prasad [19] and her colleagues wanted to test whether they could dislodge the notion that Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda were secretly collaborating among those most likely to believe it—Republican partisans from highly GOP-friendly counties. So the researchers set up a study [20] (PDF) in which they discussed the topic with some of these Republicans in person. They would cite the findings of the 9/11 Commission, as well as a statement in which George W. Bush himself denied his administration had “said the 9/11 attacks were orchestrated between Saddam and Al Qaeda.”

One study showed that not even Bush’s own words could change the minds of Bush voters who believed there was an Iraq-Al Qaeda link.

As it turned out, not even Bush’s own words could change the minds of these Bush voters—just 1 of the 49 partisans who originally believed the Iraq-Al Qaeda claim changed his or her mind. Far more common was resisting the correction in a variety of ways, either by coming up with counterarguments or by simply being unmovable:

Interviewer: [T]he September 11 Commission found no link between Saddam and 9/11, and this is what President Bush said. Do you have any comments on either of those?

Respondent: Well, I bet they say that the Commission didn’t have any proof of it but I guess we still can have our opinions and feel that way even though they say that.

The same types of responses are already being documented on divisive topics facing the current administration. Take the “Ground Zero mosque.” Using information from the political myth-busting site FactCheck.org [21], a team at Ohio State presented subjects [22] (PDF) with a detailed rebuttal to the claim that “Feisal Abdul Rauf, the Imam backing the proposed Islamic cultural center and mosque, is a terrorist-sympathizer.” Yet among those who were aware of the rumor and believed it, fewer than a third changed their minds.

A key question—and one that’s difficult to answer—is how “irrational” all this is. On the one hand, it doesn’t make sense to discard an entire belief system, built up over a lifetime, because of some new snippet of information. “It is quite possible to say, ‘I reached this pro-capital-punishment decision based on real information that I arrived at over my life,'” explains Stanford social psychologist Jon Krosnick [23]. Indeed, there’s a sense in which science denial could be considered keenly “rational.” In certain conservative communities, explains Yale’s Kahan, “People who say, ‘I think there’s something to climate change,’ that’s going to mark them out as a certain kind of person, and their life is going to go less well.”

This may help explain a curious pattern Nyhan and his colleagues found when they tried to test the fallacy [6] (PDF) that President Obama is a Muslim. When a nonwhite researcher was administering their study, research subjects were amenable to changing their minds about the president’s religion and updating incorrect views. But when only white researchers were present, GOP survey subjects in particular were more likely to believe the Obama Muslim myth than before. The subjects were using “social desirabililty” to tailor their beliefs (or stated beliefs, anyway) to whoever was listening.

Which leads us to the media. When people grow polarized over a body of evidence, or a resolvable matter of fact, the cause may be some form of biased reasoning, but they could also be receiving skewed information to begin with—or a complicated combination of both. In the Ground Zero mosque case, for instance, a follow-up study [24] (PDF) showed that survey respondents who watched Fox News were more likely to believe the Rauf rumor and three related ones—and they believed them more strongly than non-Fox watchers.

Okay, so people gravitate toward information that confirms what they believe, and they select sources that deliver it. Same as it ever was, right? Maybe, but the problem is arguably growing more acute, given the way we now consume information—through the Facebook links of friends, or tweets that lack nuance or context, or “narrowcast [25]” and often highly ideological media that have relatively small, like-minded audiences. Those basic human survival skills of ours, says Michigan’s Arthur Lupia, are “not well-adapted to our information age.”

A predictor of whether you accept the science of global warming? Whether you’re a Republican or a Democrat.

If you wanted to show how and why fact is ditched in favor of motivated reasoning, you could find no better test case than climate change. After all, it’s an issue where you have highly technical information on one hand and very strong beliefs on the other. And sure enough, one key predictor of whether you accept the science of global warming is whether you’re a Republican or a Democrat. The two groups have been growing more divided in their views about the topic, even as the science becomes more unequivocal.

So perhaps it should come as no surprise that more education doesn’t budge Republican views. On the contrary: In a 2008 Pew survey [26], for instance, only 19 percent of college-educated Republicans agreed that the planet is warming due to human actions, versus 31 percent of non-college educated Republicans. In other words, a higher education correlated with an increased likelihood of denying the science on the issue. Meanwhile, among Democrats and independents, more education correlated with greater acceptance of the science.

Other studies have shown a similar effect: Republicans who think they understand the global warming issue best are least concerned about it; and among Republicans and those with higher levels of distrust of science in general, learning more about the issue doesn’t increase one’s concern about it. What’s going on here? Well, according to Charles Taber and Milton Lodge of Stony Brook, one insidious aspect of motivated reasoning is that political sophisticates are prone to be more biased than those who know less about the issues. “People who have a dislike of some policy—for example, abortion—if they’re unsophisticated they can just reject it out of hand,” says Lodge. “But if they’re sophisticated, they can go one step further and start coming up with counterarguments.” These individuals are just as emotionally driven and biased as the rest of us, but they’re able to generate more and better reasons to explain why they’re right—and so their minds become harder to change.

That may be why the selectively quoted emails of Climategate were so quickly and easily seized upon by partisans as evidence of scandal. Cherry-picking is precisely the sort of behavior you would expect motivated reasoners to engage in to bolster their views—and whatever you may think about Climategate, the emails were a rich trove of new information upon which to impose one’s ideology.

Climategate had a substantial impact on public opinion, according to Anthony Leiserowitz [27], director of the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication [28]. It contributed to an overall drop in public concern about climate change and a significant loss of trust in scientists. But—as we should expect by now—these declines were concentrated among particular groups of Americans: Republicans, conservatives, and those with “individualistic” values. Liberals and those with “egalitarian” values didn’t lose much trust in climate science or scientists at all. “In some ways, Climategate was like a Rorschach test,” Leiserowitz says, “with different groups interpreting ambiguous facts in very different ways.”

Is there a case study of science denial that largely occupies the political left? Yes: the claim that childhood vaccines are causing an epidemic of autism.

So is there a case study of science denial that largely occupies the political left? Yes: the claim that childhood vaccines are causing an epidemic of autism. Its most famous proponents are an environmentalist (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. [29]) and numerous Hollywood celebrities (most notably Jenny McCarthy [30] and Jim Carrey). TheHuffington Post gives a very large megaphone to denialists. And Seth Mnookin [31], author of the new book The Panic Virus [32], notes that if you want to find vaccine deniers, all you need to do is go hang out at Whole Foods.

Vaccine denial has all the hallmarks of a belief system that’s not amenable to refutation. Over the past decade, the assertion that childhood vaccines are driving autism rateshas been undermined [33] by multiple epidemiological studies—as well as the simple fact that autism rates continue to rise, even though the alleged offending agent in vaccines (a mercury-based preservative called thimerosal) has long since been removed.

Yet the true believers persist—critiquing each new study that challenges their views, and even rallying to the defense of vaccine-autism researcher Andrew Wakefield, afterhis 1998 Lancet paper [34]—which originated the current vaccine scare—was retracted and he subsequently lost his license [35] (PDF) to practice medicine. But then, why should we be surprised? Vaccine deniers created their own partisan media, such as the website Age of Autism, that instantly blast out critiques and counterarguments whenever any new development casts further doubt on anti-vaccine views.

It all raises the question: Do left and right differ in any meaningful way when it comes to biases in processing information, or are we all equally susceptible?

There are some clear differences. Science denial today is considerably more prominent on the political right—once you survey climate and related environmental issues, anti-evolutionism, attacks on reproductive health science by the Christian right, and stem-cell and biomedical matters. More tellingly, anti-vaccine positions are virtually nonexistent among Democratic officeholders today—whereas anti-climate-science views are becoming monolithic among Republican elected officials.

Some researchers have suggested that there are psychological differences between the left and the right that might impact responses to new information—that conservatives are more rigid and authoritarian, and liberals more tolerant of ambiguity. Psychologist John Jost of New York University has further argued that conservatives are “system justifiers”: They engage in motivated reasoning to defend the status quo.

This is a contested area, however, because as soon as one tries to psychoanalyze inherent political differences, a battery of counterarguments emerges: What about dogmatic and militant communists? What about how the parties have differed through history? After all, the most canonical case of ideologically driven science denial is probably the rejection of genetics in the Soviet Union, where researchers disagreeing with the anti-Mendelian scientist (and Stalin stooge) Trofim Lysenko were executed, and genetics itself was denounced as a “bourgeois” science and officially banned.

The upshot: All we can currently bank on is the fact that we all have blinders in some situations. The question then becomes: What can be done to counteract human nature itself?

We all have blinders in some situations. The question then becomes: What can be done to counteract human nature?

Given the power of our prior beliefs to skew how we respond to new information, one thing is becoming clear: If you want someone to accept new evidence, make sure to present it to them in a context that doesn’t trigger a defensive, emotional reaction.

This theory is gaining traction in part because of Kahan’s work at Yale. In one study [36], he and his colleagues packaged the basic science of climate change into fake newspaper articles bearing two very different headlines—”Scientific Panel Recommends Anti-Pollution Solution to Global Warming” and “Scientific Panel Recommends Nuclear Solution to Global Warming”—and then tested how citizens with different values responded. Sure enough, the latter framing made hierarchical individualists much more open to accepting the fact that humans are causing global warming. Kahan infers that the effect occurred because the science had been written into an alternative narrative that appealed to their pro-industry worldview.

You can follow the logic to its conclusion: Conservatives are more likely to embrace climate science if it comes to them via a business or religious leader, who can set the issue in the context of different values than those from which environmentalists or scientists often argue. Doing so is, effectively, to signal a détente in what Kahan has called a “culture war of fact.” In other words, paradoxically, you don’t lead with the facts in order to convince. You lead with the values—so as to give the facts a fighting chance.


Links:
[1] https://motherjones.com/files/lfestinger.pdf
[2] http://www.powells.com/biblio/61-9781617202803-1
[3] http://motherjones.com/environment/2011/04/history-of-climategate
[4] http://motherjones.com/environment/2011/04/field-guide-climate-change-skeptics
[5] http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2270237
[6] http://www-personal.umich.edu/~bnyhan/obama-muslim.pdf
[7] https://motherjones.com/files/descartes.pdf
[8] http://www-personal.umich.edu/~lupia/
[9] http://www.stonybrook.edu/polsci/ctaber/
[10] http://people.virginia.edu/~jdh6n/
[11] https://motherjones.com/files/emotional_dog_and_rational_tail.pdf
[12] http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/lord_ross_lepper79_JPSP_biased-assimilation-and-attitude-polarization.pdf
[13] http://psp.sagepub.com/content/23/6/636.abstract
[14] http://www.law.yale.edu/faculty/DKahan.htm
[15] https://motherjones.com/files/kahan_paper_cultural_cognition_of_scientific_consesus.pdf
[16] http://digitalcommons.law.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1095&context=fss_papers
[17] http://seagrant.oregonstate.edu/blogs/communicatingclimate/transcripts/Episode_10b_Dan_Kahan.html
[18] http://www-personal.umich.edu/~bnyhan/nyhan-reifler.pdf
[19] http://www.sociology.northwestern.edu/faculty/prasad/home.html
[20] http://sociology.buffalo.edu/documents/hoffmansocinquiryarticle_000.pdf
[21] http://www.factcheck.org/
[22] http://www.comm.ohio-state.edu/kgarrett/FactcheckMosqueRumors.pdf
[23] http://communication.stanford.edu/faculty/krosnick/
[24] http://www.comm.ohio-state.edu/kgarrett/MediaMosqueRumors.pdf
[25] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narrowcasting
[26] http://people-press.org/report/417/a-deeper-partisan-divide-over-global-warming
[27] http://environment.yale.edu/profile/leiserowitz/
[28] http://environment.yale.edu/climate/
[29] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-f-kennedy-jr-and-david-kirby/vaccine-court-autism-deba_b_169673.html
[30] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jenny-mccarthy/vaccine-autism-debate_b_806857.html
[31] http://sethmnookin.com/
[32] http://www.powells.com/biblio/1-9781439158647-0
[33] http://discovermagazine.com/2009/jun/06-why-does-vaccine-autism-controversy-live-on/article_print
[34] http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140673697110960/fulltext
[35] http://www.gmc-uk.org/Wakefield_SPM_and_SANCTION.pdf_32595267.pdf
[36] http://www.scribd.com/doc/3446682/The-Second-National-Risk-and-Culture-Study-Making-Sense-of-and-Making-Progress-In-The-American-Culture-War-of-Fact

Climate change poses grave threat to security, says UK envoy (The Guardian)

Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti, special representative to foreign secretary, says governments can’t afford to wait for 100% certainty

The Guardian, Sunday 30 June 2013 18.19 BST

Flooding in Thailand in 2011

Flooding in Thailand in 2011. Photograph: Narong Sangnak/EPA

Climate change poses as grave a threat to the UK’s security and economic resilience as terrorism and cyber-attacks, according to a senior military commander who was appointed as William Hague’s climate envoy this year.

In his first interview since taking up the post, Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti said climate change was “one of the greatest risks we face in the 21st century”, particularly because it presented a global threat. “By virtue of our interdependencies around the world, it will affect all of us,” he said.

He argued that climate change was a potent threat multiplier at choke points in the global trade network, such as the Straits of Hormuz, through which much of the world’s traded oil and gas is shipped.

Morisetti left a 37-year naval career to become the foreign secretary’s special representative for climate change, and represents the growing influence of hard-headed military thinking in the global warming debate.

The link between climate change and global security risks is on the agenda of the UK’s presidency of the G8, including a meeting to be chaired by Morissetti in July that will include assessment of hotspots where climate stress is driving migration.

Morisetti’s central message was simple and stark: “The areas of greatest global stress and greatest impacts of climate change are broadly coincidental.”

He said governments could not afford to wait until they had all the information they might like. “If you wait for 100% certainty on the battlefield, you’ll be in a pretty sticky state,” he said.

The increased threat posed by climate change arises because droughts, storms and floods are exacerbating water, food, population and security tensions in conflict-prone regions.

“Just because it is happening 2,000 miles away does not mean it is not going to affect the UK in a globalised world, whether it is because food prices go up, or because increased instability in an area – perhaps around the Middle East or elsewhere – causes instability in fuel prices,” Morisetti said.

“In fact it is already doing so,” he added, noting that Toyota’s UK car plants had been forced to switch to a three-day week after extreme floods in Thailand cut the supply chain. Computer firms in California and Poland were left short of microchips by the same floods.

Morisetti is far from the only military figure emphasising the climate threat to security. America’s top officer tackling the threat from North Korea and China has said the biggest long-term security issue in the region is climate change.

In a recent interview, Admiral Samuel J Locklear III, who led the US naval action in Libya that helped topple Muammar Gaddafi, said a significant event related to the warming planet was “the most likely thing that is going to happen that will cripple the security environment, probably more likely than the other scenarios we all often talk about”.

There is a reason why the military are so clear-headed about the climate threat, according to Professor John Schellnhuber, a scientist who briefed the UN security council on the issue in February and formerly advised the German chancellor, Angela Merkel.

“The military do not deal with ideology. They cannot afford to: they are responsible for the lives of people and billions of pounds of investment in equipment,” he said. “When the climate change deniers took their stance after the Copenhagen summit in 2009, it is very interesting that the military people were never shaken from the idea that we are about to enter a very difficult period.”

He added: “This danger of the creation of violent conflicts is the strongest argument why we should keep climate change under control, because the international system is not stable, and the slightest thing, like the food riots in the Middle East, could make the whole system explode.”

The military has been quietly making known its concern about the climate threat to security for some time. General Wesley Clark, who commanded the Nato bombing of Yugoslavia during the Kosovo war, said in 2005: “Stopping global warming is not just about saving the environment, it’s about securing America for our children and our children’s children, as well.”

In the same year Chuck Hagel, now Obama’s defence secretary, said: “I don’t think you can separate environmental policy from economic policy or energy policy.”

Morisetti said there was also a direct link between climate change and the military because of the latter’s huge reliance on fossil fuels. “In Afghanistan, where we have had to import all our energy into the country along a single route that has been disrupted, the US military have calculated that for every 24 convoys there has been a casualty. There is a cost associated in bringing in that energy in both blood and treasure.

“So to drive up efficiency and to use alternative fuels, wind, solar, makes eminent sense to the military,” he said, noting that the use of solar blankets in Afghanistan meant fewer fuel resupply missions. “The principles of delivering your outputs more effectively, reducing your risks and reducing your costs reads across far more widely than just the military: most businesses would be looking for that too.”

Morisetti’s former employer, the Ministry of Defence, agrees that the climate threat is a serious one. The last edition of the Global Strategic Trends analysis published by the MoD’s Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre concludes: “Climate change will amplify existing social, political and resource stresses, shifting the tipping point at which conflict ignites … Out to 2040, there are few convincing reasons to suggest that the world will become more peaceful.”

Schellnhuber was also clear about the consequences of failing to curb global warming. “The last 11,000 years – the Holocene – was characterised by the extreme stability of global climate. It is the only period when human civilisation could have developed at all,” he said. “But I don’t think a global, interconnected world can be managed in peace if climate change means we are leaving the Holocene. Let’s pray we will have a Lincoln or a Gorbachev to lead us.”

Cientistas sociais procuram modelo para onda de protestos no Brasil (Folha de S.Paulo)

23/06/2013 – 11h09

CASSIANO ELEK MACHADO
GRACILIANO ROCHA

Olhem para paris, diz Teresa Caldeira. Mas não a de Maio de 68: para a antropóloga brasileira radicada nos EUA, professora da Universidade da Califórnia em Berkeley, a análise das manifestações que tomaram o país na semana passada deve se pautar pelos distúrbios que eclodiram nas periferias francesas em 2005, quando cidades suburbanas na região metropolitana de Paris (“banlieues”) explodiram em uma onda de protestos sociais.

Especialista em antropologia urbana, Caldeira, 58, pesquisa a cultura da periferia, em especial a de São Paulo, e diz que se vários cientistas sociais se declararam surpresos, para ela não há novidade.

“Todos comparam com Istambul ou com a Primavera Árabe, mas deveriam olhar para o que houve em Paris há oito anos”, diz Caldeira. “Dá muito bem para entender o que está acontecendo e isso vem sendo articulado há muito tempo”, acredita a antropóloga, autora do livro “Cidade de Muro: Crime, Segregação e Cidadania” (Editora 34).

Ela lembra que o Movimento Passe Livre (MPL) existe há muitos anos e afirma que ele “articula todo o imaginário da produção cultural da periferia”.

“A Folha fez uma foto em 2010 de um grafite feito pelo MPL no Minhocão, em São Paulo, que dizia ‘A cidade só existe para quem pode se movimentar por ela’.”

Caldeira reproduziu a imagem em um artigo dela na revista “Public Culture” (Duke University Press, 2012) e a frase do grafite como uma ideia fundamental do movimento cultural da periferia. “Rap, literatura marginal, pixação, saraus, todos se fazem na base e rede e de circulação. E circular por São Paulo é um caos para quem não tem dinheiro.”

Opinião diferente tem o sociólogo francês Sebastian Roché. Em seu livro “Le Frisson de l’Émeute”, (Seuil, sem tradução no Brasil), ele afirma que as revoltas que inflamaram a França -cujo estopim foi a morte de dois adolescentes eletrocutados em uma perseguição policial- foram protagonizadas por jovens que se consideram vítimas da xenofobia por não terem a pele branca e, na maioria, filhos de imigrantes e muçulmanos.

“Os jovens muçulmanos, muito numerosos nas ‘banlieues’, não se sentem aceitos nem respeitados em suas crenças. Além disso, essa juventude foi abandonada à própria sorte. Nas ‘banlieues’, a taxa de desemprego oscila entre 25% e 40% entre jovens com menos de 25 anos”, frisa Roché.

Professor da celebrada Sciences Po (Instituto de Estudos Políticos), da Universidade de Grenoble e pesquisador do CNRS (Centro Nacional de Pesquisa Social), Roché diz ter acompanhado com atenção a onda de protestos no Brasil, e não vê “muitos pontos de comparação” entre o que aconteceu aqui e lá. Na França, diz ele, “não foram pobres destruindo o meio de vida de outros pobres”.

“A burguesia ou o governo não foram os alvos. Nenhum espaço do poder foi sitiado ou tomado. Ninguém se aproximou, por exemplo, do parlamento nem da sede do governo [como ocorreu no Brasil]. Aqui, os grupos operavam durante a noite, escondiam o rosto em capuzes e muitas vezes buscavam o confronto com a polícia. Não houve qualquer manifestação de massa, nenhum líder ou palavra de ordem emergiu.”

Teresa Caldeira, que no ano passado ganhou a prestigiosa bolsa Guggenheim de pesquisa, nos EUA, aponta outra foto dos movimentos recentes, que ela diz ter visto nas redes sociais, como icônica do que está acontecendo. Dois rapazes seguravam cartazes: um dizendo “O Brasil acordou” e outro “A periferia nunca dormiu”.

Também chamaram a atenção dela as faixas que faziam referências ao trabalho da polícia. “A PM está fazendo na Paulista o que faz todo dia na periferia”, dizia uma delas. “Há uma tensão de classes latente. E não me surpreende que os protestos tenham chegado agora na periferia”, diz ela, citando como exemplo as manifestações dos últimos dias em regiões como a estrada do M’Boi Mirim (na zona sul de São Paulo).

Ela aposta que, “tal como em Paris, em 2005, veremos agora a explosão da periferia”. Ainda que, segundo ela, a presença de classes A e B tenha tido importante papel na eclosão dos movimentos, os protestos veiculam uma insatisfação que vem sendo cozinhada nas periferias. “Uma coisa é de onde vem o caldo e a outra é a forma que a manifestação adquire. Na forma, parece um pouco com a Primavera Árabe: a maneira como circularam as informações e a insatisfação com as instituições políticas tradicionais”, diz.

“No conteúdo, é muito significativo que tenha estourado pelos R$ 0,20. Ninguém aguenta mais os ônibus da cidade. Conheço muita gente da periferia, devido às pesquisas, que todos os dias posta algo em mídias sociais contra o transporte público.”

Para o francês Roché, “a melhoria das condições de vida faz com que aqueles que se sentem excluídos se mobilizem coletivamente para reivindicar, como é o caso do Brasil”. “Na França, a questão é de exclusão social em um período de estagnação econômica, e a revolta de 2005 não gerou um modelo coletivo de massas e organizado. Não houve protesto contestador, mas sim apropriações individuais, como roubos e saques, ou então confrontos e destruição para exprimir a raiva. Nas ‘banlieues’, não houve reivindicação explícita.”

Ele afirma que, embora “revoltas possam ensinar muito aos governantes”, isso depende de eles “serem capazes de olhá-las de frente”. “Na França, nós não aprendemos muito. Em novembro de 2005, a França estava a um ano e meio das eleições presidenciais. O então ministro do Interior [Nicolas Sarkozy, presidente entre 2007-2012] viu naquilo uma oportunidade de reafirmar sua autoridade e estigmatizar as ‘banlieues’ e seus habitantes com vistas à eleição de 2007” -que ele terminaria vencendo. “Nenhuma análise política foi feita pelo Parlamento e menos ainda pelo ministério do Interior, proibido de refletir sobre sua atuação pelo próprio ministro.”

Para o sociólogo, as revoltas urbanas podem, ainda, exprimir um desejo de participação direta nas decisões públicas, no caso de países como Brasil e Turquia. “Nesses dois países, muitos jovens com acesso à educação apresentam reivindicações sobre o direito à diferença e que sejam levadas em conta suas demandas sociais pelo poder central desses países.”
O estudioso considera que “há progressos econômicos tanto no Brasil quanto na Turquia, e esses movimentos de contestação se dão em um contexto bem diferente do que ocorreu na França, cujo crescimento econômico tem sido mínimo ou nulo nos últimos anos”.

Para o sociólogo “o que está acontecendo no Brasil se parece mais com o Maio de 68”. “Naquela época a França vivia em pleno Les Trente Glorieuses [como ficaram conhecidas as três décadas de crescimento e prosperidade no pós-Guerra], e a juventude, com trabalho ou diplomas, mergulhou numa luta para que seu modo de vida e aspirações fossem reconhecidos pelo governo”, recorda.

Centro brasileiro aumenta em quatro vezes a precisão da previsão do tempo (JC/O Globo)

JC e-mail 4746, de 13 de Junho de 2013.

Novo modelo do CPTEC, que usa o supercomputador Tupã, consegue mapear com resolução de cinco quilômetros quadrados. Reportagem de O Globo

Os olhos da previsão do tempo no Brasil passaram a enxergar melhor. Com quatro vezes mais precisão, mais precisamente. O Centro de Previsão do Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC/INPE) lançou uma atualização do modelo Brams de previsão, turbinado agora pela alta capacidade de processamento do supercomputador Tupã, instalado em Cachoeira Paulista. Antes, o Brams fazia previsões de até uma semana com nitidez de 20 quilômetros quadrados. Agora, a resolução é de 5 quilômetros quadrados para os mesmos sete dias.

Com a nova versão, o nível de detalhe da previsão, que antes se limitava a uma cidade ou região, desta vez consegue diferenciar um bairro do outro. A consulta ao novo modelo meteorológico é gratuita e está disponível no site do CPTEC.

Para cobrir toda a América do Sul, o Brams dividiu o território como num grande jogo de batalha naval, com 1360 por 1480 células de área. Como é um modelo em três dimensões, há também 55 níveis verticais para cada uma destas células. No total, são 110 milhões de pontos, processados simultaneamente nos 9.600 processadores do Tupã.

Segundo o CPTEC, a versão 5.0 do Brams coloca o Brasil em posição de competitividade com os principais centros operacionais do mundo. O centro de previsão do National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), por exemplo, gera previsões a partir de um modelo similar – o National Mesoscale Model – de 4 quilômetros, 70 níveis verticais e grade de 1371 x 1100 células, que cobre toda a região continental dos Estados Unidos.

Para desenvolver esta nova versão do modelo BRAMS, também utilizado para a previsão e monitoramento da poluição do ar, são usados dados de estações meteorológicas de todo o país, de satélites, boias oceânicas e imagens de avião.

http://oglobo.globo.com/ciencia/centro-brasileiro-aumenta-em-quatro-vezes-precisao-da-previsao-do-tempo-8667823#ixzz2W6YkxWkF

* * *

Inpe lança modelo de previsão de tempo com altíssima resolução

O novo padrão cobre toda a América do Sul

Uma nova versão do modelo regional Brams de previsão de tempo, que cobre toda a América do Sul, foi lançada pelo Centro de Previsão do Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC)do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (Inpe/MCTI). O Brams, versão 5.0, já está operacional para até sete dias.

O modelo gera previsões com resolução espacial de 5 quilômetros, enquanto o anterior fornecia previsões com resolução de 20 quilômetros. O avanço só foi possível devido À alta capacidade de processamento do novo supercomputador Cray, do Inpe, o Tupã, instalado no CPTEC, em Cachoeira Paulista (SP).

Os desenvolvimentos para tornar a nova versão do Brams operacional levaram cerca de um ano. Para cobrir toda a extensão da América do Sul, foram necessárias 1.360 x 1.480 células horizontais e 55 níveis verticais. As células de grade, num total de 110 milhões, aproximadamente, são processadas simultaneamente nos 9.600 processadores do Cray, em computação paralela.

Este esforço coordenado pelo Grupo de Modelagem Atmosférica e Interfaces (Gmai) colocou o CPTEC em posição de competitividade em relação aos principais centros operacionais do mundo. O centro de previsão do National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), por exemplo, gera previsões a partir de um modelo similar – o National Mesoscale Model – de 4 quilômetros, 70 níveis verticais e grade de 1.371 x 1.100 células, que cobre toda a região continental dos Estados Unidos.

Para desenvolver esta nova versão do modelo Brams, também utilizado para a previsão e monitoramento da poluição do ar, utilizou-se um modelo não hidrostático, que representa com maior precisão processos físicos de menor escala, como o desenvolvimento e a dissipação de nuvens e chuvas. Diversos avanços em parametrização (representações matemáticas de processos físicos) foram realizados para nuvens, radiação solar e processos e dinâmicas de superfície.

(Ascom do Inpe)

When Will My Computer Understand Me? (Science Daily)

June 10, 2013 — It’s not hard to tell the difference between the “charge” of a battery and criminal “charges.” But for computers, distinguishing between the various meanings of a word is difficult.

A “charge” can be a criminal charge, an accusation, a battery charge, or a person in your care. Some of those meanings are closer together, others further apart. (Credit: Image courtesy of University of Texas at Austin, Texas Advanced Computing Center)

For more than 50 years, linguists and computer scientists have tried to get computers to understand human language by programming semantics as software. Driven initially by efforts to translate Russian scientific texts during the Cold War (and more recently by the value of information retrieval and data analysis tools), these efforts have met with mixed success. IBM’s Jeopardy-winningWatson system and Google Translate are high profile, successful applications of language technologies, but the humorous answers and mistranslations they sometimes produce are evidence of the continuing difficulty of the problem.

Our ability to easily distinguish between multiple word meanings is rooted in a lifetime of experience. Using the context in which a word is used, an intrinsic understanding of syntax and logic, and a sense of the speaker’s intention, we intuit what another person is telling us.

“In the past, people have tried to hand-code all of this knowledge,” explained Katrin Erk, a professor of linguistics at The University of Texas at Austin focusing on lexical semantics. “I think it’s fair to say that this hasn’t been successful. There are just too many little things that humans know.”

Other efforts have tried to use dictionary meanings to train computers to better understand language, but these attempts have also faced obstacles. Dictionaries have their own sense distinctions, which are crystal clear to the dictionary-maker but murky to the dictionary reader. Moreover, no two dictionaries provide the same set of meanings — frustrating, right?

Watching annotators struggle to make sense of conflicting definitions led Erk to try a different tactic. Instead of hard-coding human logic or deciphering dictionaries, why not mine a vast body of texts (which are a reflection of human knowledge) and use the implicit connections between the words to create a weighted map of relationships — a dictionary without a dictionary?

“An intuition for me was that you could visualize the different meanings of a word as points in space,” she said. “You could think of them as sometimes far apart, like a battery charge and criminal charges, and sometimes close together, like criminal charges and accusations (“the newspaper published charges…”). The meaning of a word in a particular context is a point in this space. Then we don’t have to say how many senses a word has. Instead we say: ‘This use of the word is close to this usage in another sentence, but far away from the third use.'”

To create a model that can accurately recreate the intuitive ability to distinguish word meaning requires a lot of text and a lot of analytical horsepower.

“The lower end for this kind of a research is a text collection of 100 million words,” she explained. “If you can give me a few billion words, I’d be much happier. But how can we process all of that information? That’s where supercomputers and Hadoop come in.”

Applying Computational Horsepower

Erk initially conducted her research on desktop computers, but around 2009, she began using the parallel computing systems at the Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC). Access to a special Hadoop-optimized subsystem on TACC’s Longhornsupercomputer allowed Erk and her collaborators to expand the scope of their research. Hadoop is a software architecture well suited to text analysis and the data mining of unstructured data that can also take advantage of large computer clusters. Computational models that take weeks to run on a desktop computer can run in hours on Longhorn. This opened up new possibilities.

“In a simple case we count how often a word occurs in close proximity to other words. If you’re doing this with one billion words, do you have a couple of days to wait to do the computation? It’s no fun,” Erk said. “With Hadoop on Longhorn, we could get the kind of data that we need to do language processing much faster. That enabled us to use larger amounts of data and develop better models.”

Treating words in a relational, non-fixed way corresponds to emerging psychological notions of how the mind deals with language and concepts in general, according to Erk. Instead of rigid definitions, concepts have “fuzzy boundaries” where the meaning, value and limits of the idea can vary considerably according to the context or conditions. Erk takes this idea of language and recreates a model of it from hundreds of thousands of documents.

Say That Another Way

So how can we describe word meanings without a dictionary? One way is to use paraphrases. A good paraphrase is one that is “close to” the word meaning in that high-dimensional space that Erk described.

“We use a gigantic 10,000-dimentional space with all these different points for each word to predict paraphrases,” Erk explained. “If I give you a sentence such as, ‘This is a bright child,’ the model can tell you automatically what are good paraphrases (‘an intelligent child’) and what are bad paraphrases (‘a glaring child’). This is quite useful in language technology.”

Language technology already helps millions of people perform practical and valuable tasks every day via web searches and question-answer systems, but it is poised for even more widespread applications.

Automatic information extraction is an application where Erk’s paraphrasing research may be critical. Say, for instance, you want to extract a list of diseases, their causes, symptoms and cures from millions of pages of medical information on the web.

“Researchers use slightly different formulations when they talk about diseases, so knowing good paraphrases would help,” Erk said.

In a paper to appear in ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology, Erk and her collaborators illustrated they could achieve state-of-the-art results with their automatic paraphrasing approach.

Recently, Erk and Ray Mooney, a computer science professor also at The University of Texas at Austin, were awarded a grant from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency to combine Erk’s distributional, high dimensional space representation of word meanings with a method of determining the structure of sentences based on Markov logic networks.

“Language is messy,” said Mooney. “There is almost nothing that is true all the time. “When we ask, ‘How similar is this sentence to another sentence?’ our system turns that question into a probabilistic theorem-proving task and that task can be very computationally complex.”

In their paper, “Montague Meets Markov: Deep Semantics with Probabilistic Logical Form,” presented at the Second Joint Conference on Lexical and Computational Semantics (STARSEM2013) in June, Erk, Mooney and colleagues announced their results on a number of challenge problems from the field of artificial intelligence.

In one problem, Longhorn was given a sentence and had to infer whether another sentence was true based on the first. Using an ensemble of different sentence parsers, word meaning models and Markov logic implementations, Mooney and Erk’s system predicted the correct answer with 85% accuracy. This is near the top results in this challenge. They continue to work to improve the system.

There is a common saying in the machine-learning world that goes: “There’s no data like more data.” While more data helps, taking advantage of that data is key.

“We want to get to a point where we don’t have to learn a computer language to communicate with a computer. We’ll just tell it what to do in natural language,” Mooney said. “We’re still a long way from having a computer that can understand language as well as a human being does, but we’ve made definite progress toward that goal.”

People Are Overly Confident in Their Own Knowledge, Despite Errors (Science Daily)

June 10, 2013 — Overprecision — excessive confidence in the accuracy of our beliefs — can have profound consequences, inflating investors’ valuation of their investments, leading physicians to gravitate too quickly to a diagnosis, even making people intolerant of dissenting views. Now, new research confirms that overprecision is a common and robust form of overconfidence driven, at least in part, by excessive certainty in the accuracy of our judgments.

New research confirms that overprecision is a common and robust form of overconfidence driven, at least in part, by excessive certainty in the accuracy of our judgments. (Credit: © pressmaster / Fotolia)

The research, conducted by researchers Albert Mannes of The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and Don Moore of the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, revealed that the more confident participants were about their estimates of an uncertain quantity, the less they adjusted their estimates in response to feedback about their accuracy and to the costs of being wrong.

“The findings suggest that people are too confident in what they know and underestimate what they don’t know,” says Mannes.

The new findings are published in Psychological Science, a journal of the Association for Psychological Science.

Research investigating overprecision typically involves asking people to come up with a 90% confidence interval around a numerical estimate — such as the length of the Nile River — but this doesn’t always faithfully reflect the judgments we have to make in everyday life. We know, for example, that arriving 15 minutes late for a business meeting is not the same as arriving 15 minutes early, and that we ought to err on the side of arriving early.

Mannes and Moore designed three studies to account for the asymmetric nature of many everyday judgments. Participants estimated the local high temperature on randomly selected days and their accuracy was rewarded in the form of lottery tickets toward a prize. For some trials, they earned tickets if their estimates were correct or close to the actual temperature (above or below); in other trials, they earned tickets for correct guesses or overestimates; and in some trials they earned tickets for correct guesses or underestimates.

The results showed that participants adjusted their estimates in the direction of the anticipated payoff after receiving feedback about their accuracy, just as Mannes and Moore expected.

But they didn’t adjust their estimates as much as they should have given their actual knowledge of local temperatures, suggesting that they were overly confident in their own powers of estimation.

Only when the researchers provided exaggerated feedback — in which errors were inflated by 2.5 times — were the researchers able to counteract participants’ tendency towards overprecision.

The new findings, which show that overprecision is a common and robust phenomenon, urge caution:

“People frequently cut things too close — arriving late, missing planes, bouncing checks, or falling off one of the many ‘cliffs’ that present themselves in daily life,” observe Mannes and Moore.

“These studies tell us that you shouldn’t be too certain about what’s going to happen, especially when being wrong could be dangerous. You should plan to protect yourself in case you aren’t as right as you think you are.”

Journal Reference:

  1. A. E. Mannes, D. A. Moore. A Behavioral Demonstration of Overconfidence in JudgmentPsychological Science, 2013; DOI: 10.1177/0956797612470700

Roberto DaMatta: Como não perder no futebol? (OESP)

12 de junho de 2013 | 2h 10

ROBERTO DAMATTA – O Estado de S.Paulo

-Qual é o maior problema do “nosso” futebol?

– Todos! Não ganhamos nada!

– Mas exportamos o futebol do Brasil para todo o mundo. Todos jogam como nós.

– Tudo bem… Mas por que não conseguimos ganhar?

– Precisamente por causa disso. Todo sucesso vira fracasso. Quem ganha perde…

Ouvi isso na barca indo para o Rio, eu que continuo insistindo em morar em Niterói. Ora, morar em Niterói é como não saber que o futebol sofre de um pecado original: o nosso time não pode perder. E, no entanto, se um time fosse eternamente ganhador os estádios ficariam vazios.

Num espaço de tempo que hoje engloba uns 100 anos, contabilizamos muitos jogos e, em consequência, muitas perdas e ganhos. As derrotas, contudo, são mais lembradas porque nossa memória retém – como dizia Freud – mais a ferida e o sofrimento (o trauma) do que o gozo, o encantamento e a beleza de céu estrelado das experiências transitórias (aliás, Freud tem um belíssimo ensaio sobre esse assunto). O belo passa e o feio fica? De modo algum. Mas o bom é amarrado com teias de aranha, ao passo que o ruim deixa cicatrizes. Pensamos a vida como uma escada quando, de fato, ela é uma bola que gira sem parar e corre mais do que nós.

Notei num ensaio presunçoso que, em inglês, existe uma diferença entre jogar e jogar. Entre “to gamble” e “to play”; entre ir a um cassino para apostar ou jogar tênis e tocar um piano. Num caso é necessário algum tipo de habilidade sem a qual não há música ou disputa, mas nos jogos de azar basta ter sorte. Mas além de “gamble” e “play” existe a palavra “match” para designar o encontro equilibrado entre dois adversários.

Veja o leitor. Na roleta não há um “match”, porque as chances são da banca. É um jogo com aficionados, mas sem “atletas”. Ninguém compete com uma roleta, mas contra ela. No mundo do esporte, porém, a disputa se transforma em competição. A igualdade inicial é um ponto central da dualidade constitutiva do esporte. Ora, a dualidade é o eixo sobre o qual gira a reciprocidade contida das fórmulas da caridade, das boas maneiras, da vingança e do dar-para-receber como viu Marcel Mauss. A palavra “partida” designa isso e antigamente era usada para se falar do futebol que retorna com a força das paixões recalcadas.

Para nós, brasileiros, o verbo jogar engloba tanto o jogo de azar (como o famoso e até hoje milagrosamente ilegal “jogo do bicho” e as loterias bancadas pelo governo) quanto o encontro esportivo regrado e igualitário, essa disputa agônica constitutivamente ligada à probabilidade de vencer ou perder.

Mas se uma mesma palavra – jogo – junta o jogo de azar e a disputa esportiva – nem por isso lembramos que o futebol é imprevisível. Nossa leitura canônica do futebol é sempre a de uma luta na qual o time do nosso coração vai ganhar, daí as desilusões das derrotas. Podemos perder, sem dúvida, mas resistimos freudianamente a pensar nessa possibilidade. Temos perdido muito, sem dúvida, mas recusamos perpetrar a única coisa acertada diante da derrota: aceitá-la.

Surge, então, o problema cósmico do futebol no Brasil. Como admitir que perder e ganhar fazem parte da própria estrutura desse jogo, se nós – em princípio – não lemos na palavra jogo a possibilidade de derrota? A agonia e o prazer do futebol estão ligados precisamente a essa possibilidade, mas isso é afastado do nosso consciente. Quando vamos ao jogo, vamos à vitória e há motivos para isso. Um deles eu mencionei na semana passada: o futebol foi o primeiro elemento extraordinariamente positivo de uma autovisão que era permanentemente negativa. Como imaginar que um povo convencido de sua inferioridade natural como atrasado, porque era mestiço, pudesse disputar (e vencer) os brancos “adiantados” e “puros”, que inventaram a civilização e o futebol?

Quando começamos a dominar o futebol dele, fazendo um fato social total: algo com elementos econômicos, religiosos, culturais, morais, políticos, filosóficos e cósmicos – uma grande tela que projetava tudo -, descobrimos que o que vinha de fora podia ser canibalizado e tornar-se nosso. Era possível inverter a lógica colonial. A digestão do outro pela sua incorporação ou englobamento sociopolítico no nosso meio é o pano de fundo do roubo do fogo dos deuses pelos homens.

No entanto, é preciso uma nota cautelar. Roubamos o futebol, mas não a vitória perpétua. Confundir a atividade futebolista com o sucesso permanente é infantil. Na política, isso surge com o vencer a qualquer custo ou, como diz um professor de poder no poder, o Sr. Gilberto Carvalho, “o bicho vai pegar…”. Ou seja: temos que vencer com ou sem jogo o que, lamentavelmente, mas graças a Deus, é bem diferente do futebol. Escrevi essas péssimas linhas antes da vitória de 3 a 0 contra a França! Somos, de agora em diante, somente vencedores? Um lado meu espera que sim…

*   *   *

O futebol como filosofia

05 de junho de 2013

ROBERTO DAMATTA – O Estado de S.Paulo

O jogo é um modelo da vida. Ele exige temporadas, palcos, equipamentos (mesas, baralhos, dados, roletas, bolas, uniformes, redes, tacos) e regras de modo a garantir uma atenção apaixonada. E como tem início, meio e fim o jogo reduz a indiferença da vida. Com isso, faz com que meros passantes possam posar de campeões. O domingo pode não ter mesa farta, mas tem o jogo do Brasil com sua pompa e seus resplendores de esperança. Os jogos são uma das passagens secretas que permitem escapar de nós mesmos.

Dentre os esportes modernos, o futebol praticado no Brasil é certamente o mais denso. Simoni Lahud Guedes, uma estudiosa pioneira do futebol sugere que ele seria uma tela sobre a qual projetamos nossas indagações. Nascido na Inglaterra industrial dos 1860, o futebol ganhou regras fixas e, desde então, tem sido o sujeito predileto de intensas projeções simbólicas em todo o planeta.

No Brasil, ele acordou reações. Embora tivesse a chancela colonial de tudo o que vinha de fora e da poderosa Inglaterra, era uma atividade desconhecida. Um “esporte” (uma disputa governada por normas e pela necessidade imperiosa de saber vencer e perder), algo inusitado num Brasil que conhecia duelos e brigas que sempre acabavam mal.

Ademais, exercícios físicos e banhos frios não faziam parte da prática nacional. Entre nós, a barriguinha sempre foi prova de riqueza e da imobilidade física – expressiva do ideal de imobilidade social. Como receber essa inovação marcada pela disputa física veloz e igualitária, na qual perder e ganhar são – como na democracia – parte de sua estrutura? Onde encontrar um lugar para um jogo livre das restrições aristocráticas do nome de família, da cor da pele, e da “aparência”. Esse marco com o qual convivemos até hoje no Brasil?

O futebol sofreu muitos ataques em nome de um nacionalismo que se pensava frágil como porcelana. E, no entanto, como estamos vendo nessas vésperas de Copas, canibalizamos e digerimos o “foot-ball”, roubando-o dos ingleses. Hoje, há um estilo brasileiro de jogar e produzir esse esporte. De quinta coluna capaz de desvirtuar, ao lado da música e do cinema americanos, o estilo de vida e a língua pátria, o futebol acabou servindo como um instrumento básico de reflexão sobre o Brasil, conforme eu mesmo assinalei no livro Universo do Futebol, no qual, em 1982, agrupei um conjunto de ensaios socioantropológicos de colegas sobre esse esporte. Em 2006, no livro A Bola Corre Mais Que os Homens, reuni trabalhos nos quais apresentava uma saída para o dilema do esporte como alienação ou consciência do mundo insistindo como, no Brasil, o sucesso futebolístico foi o nosso primeiro instrumento de autoestima diante dos países “adiantados” e inatingíveis. O futebol foi o alento de um Brasil que se concebia como doente pela mistura de raças e que, até hoje, tem problemas em conviver consigo mesmo. Ele é a garantia do recomeço honrado na derrota e do gozo sem arrogância e corrupção na vitória.

Como prova do imprevisível destino das coisa sociais, o futebol não veio confirmar a dominação colonial. Pelo contrário, ele nos fez colonizadores e, mais que isso, filósofos por meio de toda uma literatura que a partir de Nelson Rodrigues, Jacinto de Thormes (Maneco Muller), José Lins do Rego e Armando Nogueira, entre outros, nos permitiu articular uma leitura positiva do mundo.

Literatura? Não seria um exagero? Digo que não e vou mais longe para acrescentar: o futebol criou entre nós uma filosofia, uma antropologia e uma teologia. O seu maior papel foi, como eu disse algumas vezes, o de ensinar democracia. Foi o de revelar com todas as letras que não se ganha sempre e que o mundo é instável como uma bola. Perder e vencer, ensina o futebol, fazem parte de uma mesma moeda.

Nelson Rodrigues fala de jogos bíblicos, do mesmo modo que nos abre a uma metafísica quando associa jogos e craques a destinos fechados ou ao afirmar que já no começo do mundo aquele gol seria perdido. Sua condenação da “objetividade burra” é uma crítica aguda de um senso comum hierarquizado e aristocrático que tenta tornar a própria vida algo oficial, possuída pelo Estado. Por outro lado, sua antropologia inaugura uma neoaristocracia nativa insonhável de negros e mestiços que deixam de ser híbridos enfermiços e passam – tal como ocorreu no jazz de uns Estados Unidos segregados – a príncipes, duques, condes e reis, apesar de nossos desejos inconfessáveis de fracasso. A sub-raça envenenada dos que queriam curar o Brasil se tornou a metarraça que, driblando os nossos subsociólogos – esses cartolas acadêmicos -, nos brindou com cinco Copas do Mundo. “A pátria em chuteiras” abria um novo espaço para esse futebol não branco, permitindo a países como o Brasil, uma redefinição inclusive muito mais abrangente e sem preconceitos de suas identidades nacionais.

Climate Researchers Discover New Rhythm for El Niño (Science Daily)

May 27, 2013 — El Niño wreaks havoc across the globe, shifting weather patterns that spawn droughts in some regions and floods in others. The impacts of this tropical Pacific climate phenomenon are well known and documented.

This is a schematic figure for the suggested generation mechanism of the combination tone: The annual cycle (Tone 1), together with the El Niño sea surface temperature anomalies (Tone 2) produce the combination tone. (Credit: Malte Stuecker)

A mystery, however, has remained despite decades of research: Why does El Niño always peak around Christmas and end quickly by February to April?

Now there is an answer: An unusual wind pattern that straddles the equatorial Pacific during strong El Niño events and swings back and forth with a period of 15 months explains El Niño’s close ties to the annual cycle. This finding is reported in the May 26, 2013, online issue of Nature Geoscience by scientists from the University of Hawai’i at Manoa Meteorology Department and International Pacific Research Center.

“This atmospheric pattern peaks in February and triggers some of the well-known El Niño impacts, such as droughts in the Philippines and across Micronesia and heavy rainfall over French Polynesia,” says lead author Malte Stuecker.

When anomalous trade winds shift south they can terminate an El Niño by generating eastward propagating equatorial Kelvin waves that eventually resume upwelling of cold water in the eastern equatorial Pacific. This wind shift is part of the larger, unusual atmospheric pattern accompanying El Niño events, in which a high-pressure system hovers over the Philippines and the major rain band of the South Pacific rapidly shifts equatorward.

With the help of numerical atmospheric models, the scientists discovered that this unusual pattern originates from an interaction between El Niño and the seasonal evolution of temperatures in the western tropical Pacific warm pool.

“Not all El Niño events are accompanied by this unusual wind pattern” notes Malte Stuecker, “but once El Niño conditions reach a certain threshold amplitude during the right time of the year, it is like a jack-in-the-box whose lid pops open.”

A study of the evolution of the anomalous wind pattern in the model reveals a rhythm of about 15 months accompanying strong El Niño events, which is considerably faster than the three- to five-year timetable for El Niño events, but slower than the annual cycle.

“This type of variability is known in physics as a combination tone,” says Fei-Fei Jin, professor of Meteorology and co-author of the study. Combination tones have been known for more than three centuries. They where discovered by violin builder Tartini, who realized that our ear can create a third tone, even though only two tones are played on a violin.

“The unusual wind pattern straddling the equator during an El Niño is such a combination tone between El Niño events and the seasonal march of the sun across the equator” says co-author Axel Timmermann, climate scientist at the International Pacific Research Center and professor at the Department of Oceanography, University of Hawai’i. He adds, “It turns out that many climate models have difficulties creating the correct combination tone, which is likely to impact their ability to simulate and predict El Niño events and their global impacts.”

The scientists are convinced that a better representation of the 15-month tropical Pacific wind pattern in climate models will improve El Niño forecasts. Moreover, they say the latest climate model projections suggest that El Niño events will be accompanied more often by this combination tone wind pattern, which will also change the characteristics of future El Niño rainfall patterns.

Journal Reference:

  1. Malte F. Stuecker, Axel Timmermann, Fei-Fei Jin, Shayne McGregor, Hong-Li Ren. A combination mode of the annual cycle and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.Nature Geoscience, 2013; DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1826