Language and Tool-Making Skills Evolved at the Same Time (Science Daily)

Sep. 3, 2013 — Research by the University of Liverpool has found that the same brain activity is used for language production and making complex tools, supporting the theory that they evolved at the same time.

Three hand axes produced by participants in the experiment. Front, back and side views are shown. (Credit: Image courtesy of University of Liverpool)

Researchers from the University tested the brain activity of 10 expert stone tool makers (flint knappers) as they undertook a stone tool-making task and a standard language test.

Brain blood flow activity measured

They measured the brain blood flow activity of the participants as they performed both tasks using functional Transcranial Doppler Ultrasound (fTCD), commonly used in clinical settings to test patients’ language functions after brain damage or before surgery.

The researchers found that brain patterns for both tasks correlated, suggesting that they both use the same area of the brain. Language and stone tool-making are considered to be unique features of humankind that evolved over millions of years.

Darwin was the first to suggest that tool-use and language may have co-evolved, because they both depend on complex planning and the coordination of actions but until now there has been little evidence to support this.

Dr Georg Meyer, from the University Department of Experimental Psychology, said: “This is the first study of the brain to compare complex stone tool-making directly with language.

Tool use and language co-evolved

“Our study found correlated blood-flow patterns in the first 10 seconds of undertaking both tasks. This suggests that both tasks depend on common brain areas and is consistent with theories that tool-use and language co-evolved and share common processing networks in the brain.”

Dr Natalie Uomini from the University’s Department of Archaeology, Classics & Egyptology, said: “Nobody has been able to measure brain activity in real time while making a stone tool. This is a first for both archaeology and psychology.”

The research was supported by the Leverhulme Trust, the Economic and Social Research Council and the British Academy. It is published in PLOS ONE.

Journal Reference:

  1. Natalie Thaïs Uomini, Georg Friedrich Meyer. Shared Brain Lateralization Patterns in Language and Acheulean Stone Tool Production: A Functional Transcranial Doppler Ultrasound StudyPLoS ONE, 2013; 8 (8): e72693 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0072693

Primate Calls, Like Human Speech, Can Help Infants Form Categories (Science Daily)

Sep. 2, 2013 — Human infants’ responses to the vocalizations of non-human primates shed light on the developmental origin of a crucial link between human language and core cognitive capacities, a new study reports.

Mantled howler (Alouatta seniculus) howling. (Credit: © michaklootwijk / Fotolia)

Previous studies have shown that even in infants too young to speak, listening to human speech supports core cognitive processes, including the formation of object categories.

Alissa Ferry, lead author and currently a postdoctoral fellow in the Language, Cognition and Development Lab at the Scuola Internationale Superiore di Studi Avanzati in Trieste, Italy, together with Northwestern University colleagues, documented that this link is initially broad enough to include the vocalizations of non-human primates.

“We found that for 3- and 4-month-old infants, non-human primate vocalizations promoted object categorization, mirroring exactly the effects of human speech, but that by six months, non-human primate vocalizations no longer had this effect — the link to cognition had been tuned specifically to human language,” Ferry said.

In humans, language is the primary conduit for conveying our thoughts. The new findings document that for young infants, listening to the vocalizations of humans and non-human primates supports the fundamental cognitive process of categorization. From this broad beginning, the infant mind identifies which signals are part of their language and begins to systematically link these signals to meaning.

Furthermore, the researchers found that infants’ response to non-human primate vocalizations at three and four months was not just due to the sounds’ acoustic complexity, as infants who heard backward human speech segments failed to form object categories at any age.

Susan Hespos, co-author and associate professor of psychology at Northwestern said, “For me, the most stunning aspect of these findings is that an unfamiliar sound like a lemur call confers precisely the same effect as human language for 3- and 4-month-old infants. More broadly, this finding implies that the origins of the link between language and categorization cannot be derived from learning alone.”

“These results reveal that the link between language and object categories, evident as early as three months, derives from a broader template that initially encompasses vocalizations of human and non-human primates and is rapidly tuned specifically to human vocalizations,” said Sandra Waxman, co-author and Louis W. Menk Professor of Psychology at Northwestern.

Waxman said these new results open the door to new research questions.

“Is this link sufficiently broad to include vocalizations beyond those of our closest genealogical cousins,” asks Waxman, “or is it restricted to primates, whose vocalizations may be perceptually just close enough to our own to serve as early candidates for the platform on which human language is launched?”

Journal Reference:

  1. Alissa Ferry et al. Non-human primate vocalizations support categorizations in very young human infants.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, September 3, 2013

The Myth of ‘Environmental Catastrophism’ (Monthly Review)

Between October 2010 and April 2012, over 250,000 people, including 133,000 children under five, died of hunger caused by drought in Somalia. Millions more survived only because they received food aid. Scientists at the UK Met Centre have shown that human-induced climate change made this catastrophe much worse than it would otherwise have been.1

This is only the beginning: the United Nations’ 2013 Human Development Report says that without coordinated global action to avert environmental disasters, especially global warming, the number of people living in extreme poverty could increase by up to 3 billion by 2050.2 Untold numbers of children will die, killed by climate change.

If a runaway train is bearing down on children, simple human solidarity dictates that anyone who sees it should shout a warning, that anyone who can should try to stop it. It is difficult to imagine how anyone could disagree with that elementary moral imperative.

And yet some do. Increasingly, activists who warn that the world faces unprecedented environmental danger are accused of catastrophism—of raising alarms that do more harm than good. That accusation, a standard feature of right-wing attacks on the environmental movement, has recently been advanced by some left-wing critics as well. While they are undoubtedly sincere, their critique of so-called environmental catastrophism does not stand up to scrutiny.

From the Right…

The word “catastrophism” originated in nineteenth-century geology, in the debate between those who believed all geological change had been gradual and those who believed there had been episodes of rapid change. Today, the word is most often used by right-wing climate change deniers for whom it is a synonym for “alarmism.”

  • The Heartland Institute: “Climate Catastrophism Picking Up Again in the U.S. and Across the World.”3
  • A right-wing German blog: “The Climate Catastrophism Cult.”4
  • The Australian journal Quadrant: “The Chilling Costs of Climate Catastrophism.”5

Examples could be multiplied. As environmental historian Franz Mauelshagen writes, “In climate denialist circles, the word ‘climate catastrophe’ has become synonymous with ‘climate lie,’ taking the anthropogenic green house effect for a scam.”6

Those who hold such views like to call themselves “climate change skeptics,” but a more accurate term is “climate science deniers.” While there are uncertainties about the speed of change and its exact effects, there is no question that global warming is driven by greenhouse-gas emissions caused by human activity, and that if business as usual continues, temperatures will reach levels higher than any seen since before human beings evolved. Those who disagree are not skeptical, they are denying the best scientific evidence and analysis available.

The right labels the scientific consensus “catastrophism” to belittle environmentalism, and to stifle consideration of measures to delay or prevent the crisis. The real problem, they imply, is not the onrushing train, but the people who are yelling “get off the track!” Leaving the track would disrupt business as usual, and that is to be avoided at all costs.

…And From the Left

Until very recently, “catastrophism” as a political expression was pretty much the exclusive property of conservatives. When it did occur in left-wing writing, it referred to economic debates, not ecology. But in 2007 two quite different left-wing voices almost simultaneously adopted “catastrophism” as a pejorative term for radical ideas about climate change they disagreed with.

The most prominent was the late Alexander Cockburn, who in 2007 was writing regularly forThe Nation and coediting the newsletter CounterPunch. To the shock of many of his admirers, he declared that “There is still zero empirical evidence that anthropogenic production of CO2 is making any measurable contribution to the world’s present warming trend,” and that “the human carbon footprint is of zero consequence.”7 Concern about climate change was, he wrote, the result of a conspiracy “between the Greenhouser fearmongers and the nuclear industry, now largely owned by oil companies.”8

Like critics on the right, Cockburn charged that the left was using climate change to sneak through reforms it could not otherwise win: “The left has bought into environmental catastrophism because it thinks that if it can persuade the world that there is indeed a catastrophe, then somehow the emergency response will lead to positive developments in terms of social and environmental justice.”9

While Cockburn’s assault on “environmental catastrophism” was shocking, his arguments did not add anything new to the climate debate. They were the same criticisms we had long heard from right-wing deniers, albeit with leftish vocabulary.

That was not the case with Leo Panitch and Colin Leys. These distinguished Marxist scholars are by no means deniers. They began their preface to the 2007 Socialist Register by noting that “environmental problems might be so severe as to potentially threaten the continuation of anything that might be considered tolerable human life,” and insisting that “the speed of development of globalized capitalism, epitomized by the dramatic acceleration of climate change, makes it imperative for socialists to deal seriously with these issues now.”

But then they wrote: “Nonetheless, it is important to try to avoid an anxiety-driven ecological catastrophism, parallel to the kind of crisis-driven economic catastrophism that announces the inevitable demise of capitalism.”10 They went on to argue that capitalism’s “dynamism and innovativeness” might enable it to use “green commerce” to escape environmental traps.

The problem with the Panitch–Leys formulation is that the threat of ecological catastrophe isnot “parallel” to the view that capitalism will destroy itself. The desire to avoid the kind of mechanical determinism that has often characterized Marxist politics, where every crisis was proclaimed to be the final battle, led these thoughtful writers to confuse two very different kinds of catastrophe.

The idea that capitalism will inevitably face an insurmountable economic crisis and collapse is based on a misunderstanding of Marxist economic theory. While economic crises are endemic to capitalism, the system can always continue—only class struggle, only a social revolution, can overthrow capitalism and end the crisis cycle.

Large-scale environmental damage is caused by our destructive economic system, but its effectis the potentially irreversible disruption of essential natural systems. The most dramatic example is global warming: recent research shows that the earth is now warmer than at any time in the past 6,000 years, and temperatures are rising much faster than at any time since the last Ice Age. Arctic ice and the Greenland ice sheet are disappearing faster than predicted, raising the specter of flooding in coastal areas where more than a billion people live. Extreme weather events, such as giant storms, heat waves, and droughts are becoming ever more frequent. So many species are going extinct that many scientists call it a mass extinction event, comparable to the time 66 million years ago when 75 percent of all species, including the dinosaurs, were wiped out.

As the editors of Monthly Review wrote in reply to Socialist Register, if these trends continue, “we will be faced with a different world—one in which life on the planet will be massively degraded on a scale not seen for tens of millions of years.”11 To call this “anxiety-driven ecological catastrophism, parallel to…economic catastrophism” is to equate an abstract error in economic theory with some of the strongest conclusions of modern science.

A New ‘Catastrophism’ Critique

Now a new essay, provocatively titled “The Politics of Failure Have Failed,” offers a different and more sweeping left-wing critique of “environmental catastrophism.” Author Eddie Yuen is associated with the Pacifica radio program Against the Grain, and is on the editorial board of the journal Capitalism Nature Socialism.

His paper is part of a broader effort to define and critique a body of political thought calledCatastrophism, in a book by that title.12 In the book’s introduction, Sasha Lilley offers this definition:

Catastrophism presumes that society is headed for a collapse, whether economic, ecological, social, or spiritual. This collapse is frequently, but not always, regarded as a great cleansing, out of which a new society will be born. Catastrophists tend to believe that an ever-intensified rhetoric of disaster will awaken the masses from their long slumber—if the mechanical failure of the system does not make such struggles superfluous. On the left, catastrophism veers between the expectation that the worse things become, the better they will be for radical fortunes, and the prediction that capitalism will collapse under its own weight. For parts of the right, worsening conditions are welcomed, with the hope they will trigger divine intervention or allow the settling of scores for any modicum of social advance over the last century.

A political category that includes both the right and the left—and that encompasses people whose concerns might be economic, ecological, social, or spiritual—is, to say the least, unreasonably broad. It is difficult to see any analytical value in a definition that lumps together anarchists, fascists, Christian fundamentalists, right-wing conspiracy nuts, pre–1914 socialists, peak-oil theorists, obscure Trotskyist groups, and even Mao Zedong.

The definition of catastrophism becomes even more problematic in Yuen’s essay.

One Of These Things Is Not Like The Others…

Years ago, the children’s television program Sesame Street would display four items—three circles and a square, three horses and a chair, and so on—while someone sang, “One of these things is not like the others, One of these things doesn’t belong.

I thought of that when I read Yuen’s essay.

While the book’s scope is broad, most of it focuses, as Yuen writes, on “instrumental, spurious, and sometimes maniacal versions of catastrophism—including rightwing racial paranoia, religious millenarianism, liberal panics over fascism, leftist fetishization of capitalist collapse, capitalist invocation of the ‘shock doctrine’ and pop culture cliché.”

But as Yuen admits in his first paragraph, environmentalism is a very different matter, because we are in “what is unquestionably a genuine catastrophic moment in human and planetary history…. Of all of the forms of catastrophic discourse on offer, the collapse of ecological systems is unique in that it is definitively verified by a consensus within the scientific community…. It is absolutely urgent to address this by effectively and rapidly changing the direction of human society.”

If the science is clear, if widespread ecological collapse unquestionably faces us unless action is taken, why is this topic included in a book devoted to criticizing false ideas? Does it make sense to use the same term for people who believe in an imaginary train crash and for people who are trying to stop a real crash from happening?

The answer, although he does not say so, is that Yuen is using a different definition than the one Lilley gave in her introduction. Her version used the word for the belief that some form of catastrophe will have positive results—that capitalism will collapse from internal contradictions, that God will punish all sinners, that peak oil or industrial collapse will save the planet. Yuen uses the same word for the idea that environmentalists should alert people to the threat of catastrophic environmental change and try to mobilize them to prevent or minimize it.

Thus, when he refers to “a shrill note of catastrophism” in the work of James Hansen, perhaps the world’s leading climate scientist, he is not challenging the accuracy of Hansen’s analysis, but only the “narrative strategy” of clearly stating the probable results of continuing business as usual.

Yuen insists that “the veracity of apocalyptic claims about ecological collapse are separate from their effects on social, political, and economic life.” Although “the best evidence points to cascading environmental disaster,” in his view it is self-defeating to tell people that. He makes two arguments, which we can label “practical” and “principled.”

His practical argument is that by talking about “apocalyptic scenarios” environmentalists have made people more apathetic, less likely to fight for progressive change. His principledargument is that exposing and campaigning to stop tendencies towards environmental collapse has “damaging and rightward-leaning effects”—it undermines the left, promotes reactionary policies and strengthens the ruling class.

In my opinion, he is wrong on both counts.

The Truth Shall Make You Apathetic?

In Yuen’s view, the most important question facing people who are concerned about environmental destruction is: “what narrative strategies are most likely to generate effective and radical social movements?”

He is vague about what “narrative strategies” might work, but he is very firm about what does not. He argues that environmentalists have focused on explaining the environmental crisis and warning of its consequences in the belief that this will lead people to rise up and demand change, but this is a fallacy. In reality, “once convinced of apocalyptic scenarios, many Americans become more apathetic.”

Given such a sweeping assertion, it is surprising to find that the only evidence Yuen offers is a news release describing one academic paper, based on a U.S. telephone survey conducted in 2008, that purported to show that “more informed respondents both feel less personally responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming.”13

Note first that being “more informed” is not the same as being “convinced of apocalyptic scenarios” or being bombarded with “increasingly urgent appeals about fixed ecological tipping points.” On the face of it, this study does not appear to contribute to our understanding of the effects of “catastrophism.”

What’s more, reading the original paper reveals that the people described as “more informed” were self-reporting. If they said they were informed, that was accepted, and no one asked if they were listening to climate scientists or to conservative talk radio. That makes the paper’s conclusion meaningless.

Later in his essay, Yuen correctly criticizes some environmentalists and scientists who “speak of ‘everyone’ as a unified subject.” But here he accepts as credible a study that purports to show how all Americans respond to information about climate change, regardless of class, gender, race, or political leanings.

The problem with such undifferentiated claims is shown in a 2011 study that examined the impact of Americans’ political opinions on their feelings about climate change. It found that liberals and Democrats who report being well-informed are more worried about climate change, while conservatives and Republicans who report being well-informed are less worried.14 Obviously the two groups mean very different things by “well-informed.”

Even if we ignore that, the study Yuen cites is a one-time snapshot—it does not tells us what radicals really need to know, which is how things are changing. For that, a more useful survey is one that scientists at Yale University and George Mason University have conducted seven times since 2008 to show shifts in U.S. public opinion.15 Based on answers to questions about their opinions, respondents are categorized according to their attitude towards global warming. The surveys show:

  • The number of people identified as “Disengaged” or “Cautious”—those we might call apathetic or uncertain—has varied very little, accounting for between 31 percent and 35 percent of the respondents every time.
  • The categories “Dismissive” or “Doubtful”—those who lean towards denial—increased between 2008 and 2010. Since then, those groups have shrunk back almost to the 2008 level.
  • In parallel, the combined “Concerned” and “Alarmed” groups shrank between 2008 and 2010, but have since largely recovered. In September 2012—before Hurricane Sandy!—there were more than twice as many Americans in these two categories as in Dismissive/Doubtful.

Another study, published in the journal Climatic Change, used seventy-four independent surveys conducted between 2002 and 2011 to create a Climate Change Threat Index (CCTI)—a measure of public concern about climate change—and showed how it changed in response to public events. It found that public concern about climate change reached an all-time high in 2006–2007, when the Al Gore documentary An Inconvenient Truth was seen in theaters by millions of people and won an Academy Award.

The authors conclude: “Our results…show that advocacy efforts produce substantial changes in public perceptions related to climate change. Specifically, the film An Inconvenient Truth and the publicity surrounding its release produced a significant positive jump in the CCTI.”16

This directly contradicts Yuen’s view that more information about climate change causes Americans to become more apathetic. There is no evidence of a long-term increase in apathy or decrease in concern—and when scientific information about climate change reached millions of people, the result was not apathy but a substantial increase in support for action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

‘The Two Greatest Myths’

Yuen says environmentalists have deluged Americans with catastrophic warnings, and this strategy has produced apathy, not action. Writing of establishment politicians who make exactly the same claim, noted climate change analyst Joseph Romm says, “The two greatest myths about global warming communications are 1) constant repetition of doomsday messages has been a major, ongoing strategy and 2) that strategy doesn’t work and indeed is actually counterproductive!” Contrary to liberal mythology, the North American public has not been exposed to anything even resembling the first claim. Romm writes,

The broad American public is exposed to virtually no doomsday messages, let alone constant ones, on climate change in popular culture (TV and the movies and even online)…. The major energy companies bombard the airwaves with millions and millions of dollars of repetitious pro-fossil-fuel ads. The environmentalists spend far, far less money…. Environmentalists when they do appear in popular culture, especially TV, are routinely mocked…. It is total BS that somehow the American public has been scared and overwhelmed by repeated doomsday messaging into some sort of climate fatigue.17

The website Daily Climate, which tracks U.S. news stories about climate change, says coverage peaked in 2009, during the Copenhagen talks—but then it “fell off the map,” dropping 30 percent in 2010 and another 20 percent in 2011. In 2012, despite widespread droughts and Hurricane Sandy, news coverage fell another 2 percent. The decline in editorial interest was even more dramatic—in 2012 newspapers published fewer than half as many editorials about climate change as they did in 2009.18

It should be noted that these shifts occurred in the framework of very limited news coverage of climate issues. As a leading media analyst notes, “relative to other issues like health, medicine, business, crime and government, media attention to climate change remains a mere blip.”19 Similarly, a British study describes coverage of climate change in newspapers there as “lamentably thin”—a problem exacerbated by the fact that much of the coverage consists of “worryingly persistent climate denial stories.” The author concludes drily: “The limited coverage is unlikely to have convinced readers that climate change is a serious problem warranting immediate, decisive and potentially costly action.”20

Given Yuen’s concern that Americans do not recognize the seriousness of environmental crises, it is surprising how little he says about the massive fossil-fuel-funded disinformation campaigns that have confused and distorted media reporting. I can find just four sentences on the subject in his 9,000-word text, and not one that suggests denialist campaigns might have helped undermine efforts to build a climate change movement.

On the contrary, he downplays the influence of “the well-funded climate denial lobby,” by claiming that “far more corporate and elite energy has gone toward generating anxiety about global warming,” and that “mainstream climate science is much better funded.” He provides no evidence for either statement.

Of course, the fossil-fuel lobby is not the only force working to undermine public concern about climate change. It is also important to recognize the impact of Obama’s predictable unwillingness to confront the dominant forces in U.S. capitalism, and of the craven failure of mainstream environmentalist groups and NGOs to expose and challenge the Democrats’ anti-environmental policies.

With fossil-fuel denialists on one side, and Obama’s pale-green cheerleaders on the other, activists who want to get out the truth have barely been heard. In that context, it makes little sense to blame environmentalists for sabotaging environmentalism.

The Truth Will Help the Right?

Halfway through his essay, Yuen abruptly changes direction, leaving the practical argument behind and raising his principled concern. He now argues that what he calls catastrophism leads people to support reactionary policies and promotes “the most authoritarian solutions at the state level.” Focusing attention on what he agrees is a “cascading environmental disaster” is dangerous because it “disables the left but benefits the right and capital.” He says, “Increased awareness of environmental crisis will not likely translate into a more ecological lifestyle, let alone an activist orientation against the root causes of environmental degradation. In fact, right-wing and nationalist environmental politics have much more to gain from an embrace of catastrophism.”

Yuen says that many environmentalists, including scientists, “reflexively overlook class divisions,” and so do not realize that “some business and political elites feel that they can avoid the worst consequences of the environmental crisis, and may even be able to benefit from it.” Yuen apparently thinks those elites are right—while the insurance industry is understandably worried about big claims, he says, “the opportunities for other sectors of capitalism are colossal in scope.”

He devotes much of the rest of his essay to describing the efforts of pro-capitalist forces, conservative and liberal, to use concern about potential environmental disasters to promote their own interests, ranging from emissions trading schemes to military expansion to Malthusian attacks on the world’s poorest people. “The solution offered by global elites to the catastrophe is a further program of austerity, belt-tightening, and sacrifice, the brunt of which will be borne by the world’s poor.”

Some of this is overstated. His claim that “Malthusianism is at the core of most environmental discourse,” reflects either a very limited view of environmentalism or an excessively broad definition of Malthusianism. And he seems to endorse David Noble’s bizarre theory that public concern about global warming has been engineered by a corporate conspiracy to promote carbon trading schemes.21 Nevertheless he is correct that the ruling class will do its best to profit from concern about climate change, while simultaneously offloading the costs onto the world’s poorest people.

The question is, who is he arguing with? This book says it aims to “spur debate among radicals,” but none of this is new or controversial for radicals. The insight that the interests of the ruling class are usually opposed to the interests of the rest of us has been central to left-wing thought since before Marx was born. Capitalists always try to turn crises to their advantage no matter who gets hurt, and they always try to offload the costs of their crises onto the poor and oppressed.

What needs to be proved is not that pro-capitalist forces are trying to steer the environmental movement into profitable channels, and not that many sincere environmentalists have backward ideas about the social and economic causes of ecological crises. Radicals who are active in green movements know those things perfectly well. What needs to be proved is Yuen’s view that warning about environmental disasters and campaigning to prevent them has “damaging and rightward-leaning effects” that are so severe that radicals cannot overcome them.

But no proof is offered.

What is particularly disturbing about his argument is that he devotes pages to describing the efforts of reactionaries to misdirect concern about climate change—and none to the efforts of radical environmentalists to counter those forces. Earlier in his essay, he mentioned that “environmental and climate justice perspectives are steadily gaining traction in internal environmental debates,” but those thirteen words are all he has to say on the subject.

He says nothing about the historic 2010 Cochabamba Conference, where 30,000 environmental activists from 140 countries warned that if greenhouse gas emissions are not stopped, “the damages caused to our Mother Earth will be completely irreversible”—a statement Yuen would doubtless label “catastrophist.” Far from succumbing to apathy or reactionary policies, the participants explicitly rejected market solutions, identified capitalism as the cause of the crisis, and outlined a radical program to transform the global economy.

He is equally silent about the campaign against the fraudulent “green economy” plan adopted at last year’s Rio+20 conference. One of the principal organizers of that opposition is La Via Campesina, the world’s largest organization of peasants and farmers, which warns that the world’s governments are “propagating the same capitalist model that caused climate chaos and other deep social and environmental crises.”

His essay contains not a word about Idle No More, or Occupy, or the Indigenous-led fight against Canada’s tar sands, or the anti-fracking and anti-coal movements. By omitting them, Yuen leaves the false impression that the climate movement is helpless to resist reactionary forces.

Contrary to Yuen’s title, the effort to build a movement to save the planet has not failed. Indeed, Catastrophism was published just four months before the largest U.S. climate change demonstration ever!

The question before radicals is not what “narrative strategy” to adopt, but rather, how will we relate to the growing environmental movement? How will we support its goals while strengthening the forces that see the need for more radical solutions?

What Must Be Done?

Yuen opposes attempts to build a movement around rallies, marches, and other mass protests to get out the truth and to demand action against environmental destruction. He says that strategy worked in the 1960s, when Americans were well-off and naïve, but cannot be replicated in today’s “culture of atomized cynicism.”

Like many who know that decade only from history books or as distant memories, Yuen foreshortens the experience: he knows about the mass protests and dissent late in the decade, but ignores the many years of educational work and slow movement building in a deeply reactionary and racist time. It is not predetermined that the campaign against climate change will take as long as those struggles, or take similar forms, but the real experience of the 1960s should at least be a warning against premature declarations of failure.

Yuen is much less explicit about what he thinks would be an effective strategy, but he cites as positive examples the efforts of some to promote “a bottom-up and egalitarian transition” by:

ever-increasing numbers of people who are voluntarily engaging in intentional communities, sustainability projects, permaculture and urban farming, communing and mil­itant resistance to consumerism…we must consider the alterna­tive posed by the highly imaginative Italian left of the twentieth century. The explosively popular Slow Food movement was origi­nally built on the premise that a good life can be had not through compulsive excess but through greater conviviality and a shared commonwealth.

Compare that to this list of essential tasks, prepared recently by Pablo Solón, a leading figure in the global climate justice movement:

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a level that avoids catastrophe, we need to:

* Leave more than two-thirds of the fossil fuel reserves under the soil;

* Stop the exploitation of tar sands, shale gas and coal;

* Support small, local, peasant and indigenous community farming while we dismantle big agribusiness that deforests and heats the planet;

* Promote local production and consumption of products, reducing the free trade of goods that send millions of tons of CO2 while they travel around the world;

* Stop extractive industries from further destroying nature and contaminating our atmosphere and our land;

* Increase significantly public transport to reduce the unsustainable “car way of life”;

* Reduce the emissions of warfare by promoting genuine peace and dismantling the military and war industry and infrastructure.22

The projects that Yuen describes are worthwhile, but unless the participants are alsocommitted to building mass environmental campaigns, they will not be helping to achieve the vital objectives that Solón identifies. Posing local communes and slow food as alternatives to building a movement against global climate change is effectively a proposal to abandon the fight against capitalist ecocide in favor of creating greenish enclaves, while the world burns.

Bright-siding versus Movement Building

Whatever its merits in other contexts, it is not helpful or appropriate to use the wordcatastrophism as a synonym for telling the truth about the environmental dangers we face. Using the same language as right-wing climate science deniers gives the impression that the dangers are non-existent or exaggerated. Putting accurate environmental warnings in the same category as apocalyptic Christian fundamentalism and century-old misreadings of Marxist economic theory leads to underestimation of the threats we face and directs efforts away from mobilizing an effective counterforce.

Yuen’s argument against publicizing the scientific consensus on climate change echoes the myth that liberal politicians and journalists use to justify their failure to challenge the crimes of the fossil-fuel industry. People are tired of all that doom and gloom, they say. It is time for positivemessages! Or, to use Yuen’s vocabulary, environmentalists need to end “apocalyptic rhetoric” and find better “narrative strategies.”

This is fundamentally an elitist position: the people cannot handle the truth, so a knowledgeable minority must sugarcoat it, to make the necessary changes palatable.

David Spratt of the Australian organization Climate Code Red calls that approach “bright-siding,” a reference to the bitterly satirical Monty Python song, “Always Look on the Bright Side of Life.”

The problem is, Spratt writes: “If you avoid including an honest assessment of climate science and impacts in your narrative, it’s pretty difficult to give people a grasp about where the climate system is heading and what needs to be done to create the conditions for living in climate safety, rather than increasing and eventually catastrophic harm.”23 Joe Romm makes the same point: “You’d think it would be pretty obvious that the public is not going to be concerned about an issue unless one explains why they should be concerned.”24

Of course, this does not mean that we only need to explain the science. We need to propose concrete goals, as Pablo Solón has done. We need to show how the scientific consensus about climate change relates to local and national concerns such as pipelines, tar sands, fracking, and extreme weather. We need to work with everyone who is willing to confront any aspect of the crisis, from people who still have illusions about capitalism to convinced revolutionaries. Activists in the wealthy countries must be unstinting in their political and practical solidarity with the primary victims of climate change, indigenous peoples, and impoverished masses everywhere.

We need to do all of that and more.

But the first step is to tell the truth—about the danger we face, about its causes, and about the measures that must be taken to turn back the threat. In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Notes

  1.  Fraser C. Lott, Nikolaos Christidis, and Peter A. Stott, “Can the 2011 East African Drought Be Attributed to Human-Induced Climate Change?,” Geophysical Research Letters 40, no. 6 ( March 2013): 1177–81.
  2.  UNDP, “’Rise of South’ Transforming Global Power Balance, Says 2013 Human Development Report,” March 14, 2013, http://undp.org.
  3.  Tom Harris, “Climate Catastrophism Picking Up Again in the U.S. and Across the World,”Somewhat Reasonable, October 10, 2012 http://blog.heartland.org.
  4.  Pierre Gosselin, “The Climate Catastrophism Cult,” NoTricksZone, February 12, 2011, http://notrickszone.com.
  5.  Ray Evans, “The Chilling Costs of Climate Catastrophism,” Quadrant Online, June 2008. http://quadrant.org.au.
  6.  Franz Mauelshagen, “Climate Catastrophism: The History of the Future of Climate Change,” in Andrea Janku, Gerrit Schenk, and Franz Mauelshagen, Historical Disasters in Context: Science, Religion, and Politics (New York: Routledge, 2012), 276.
  7.  Alexander Cockburn, “Is Global Warming a Sin?,” CounterPunch, April 28–30, 2007, http://counterpunch.org.
  8.  Alexander Cockburn, “Who are the Merchants of Fear?,” CounterPunch, May 12–14, 2007, http:// counterpunch.org.
  9.  Alexander Cockburn, “I Am An Intellectual Blasphemer,” Spiked Review of Books, January 9, 2008, http://spiked-online.com.
  10.  Leo Panitch and Colin Leys, “Preface,” Socialist Register 2007: Coming to Terms With Nature(London: Merlin Press/Monthly Review Press, 2006), ix–x.
  11. 11.“Notes from the Editors,” Monthly Review 58, no. 10 (March 2007), http://monthlyreview.org.
  12.  Sasha Lilley, David McNally, Eddie Yuen, and James Davis, Catastrophism: The Apocalyptic Politics of Collapse and Rebirth (Oakland: PM Press, 2012).
  13.  Yuen’s footnote cites an article which is identical to a news release issued the previous day by Texas A&M University; see “Increased Knowledge About Global Warming Leads to Apathy, Study Shows,” Science Daily, March 28, 2008, http://eurekalert.org. The original paper, which Yuen does not cite, is: P.M. Kellstedt, S. Zahran, and A. Vedlitz, “Personal Efficacy, the Information Environment, and Attitudes Towards Global Warming and Climate Change in the United State,”Risk Analysis 28, no. 1 (2008): 113–26.
  14.  Aaron M. McCright and Riley E. Dunlap, “The Politicization of Climate Change and Polarization in the American Public’s Views of Global Warming, 2001–2010,” The Sociological Quarterly 52 (2011): 155–94.
  15.  A. Leiserowitz, et. al., Global Warming’s Six Americas, September 2012 (New Haven, CT: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, 2013), http://environment.yale.edu.
  16.  Robert J. Brulle, Jason Carmichael, and J. Craig Jenkins, “Shifting Public Opinion on Climate Change: An Empirical Assessment of Factors Influencing Concern Over Climate Change in the U.S., 2002–2010,” Climatic Change 114, no. 2 (September 2012): 169–88.
  17.  Joe Romm, “Apocalypse Not: The Oscars, The Media and the Myth of ‘Constant Repetition of Doomsday Messages’ on Climate,” Climate Progress, February 24, 2013, http://thinkprogress.org.
  18.  Douglas Fischer. “2010 in Review: The Year Climate Coverage ‘Fell off the Map,’” Daily Climate, January 3, 2011. http://dailyclimate.org; “Climate Coverage Down Again in 2011,” Daily Climate, January 3, 2012, http://dailyclimate.org; “Climate Coverage, Dominated by Weird Weather, Falls Further in 2012,” Daily Climate, January 2, 2013, http://dailyclimate.org.
  19.  Maxwell T. Boykoff, Who Speaks for the Climate?: Making Sense of Media Reporting on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011), 24.
  20.  Neil T. Gavin, “Addressing Climate Change: A Media Perspective,” Environmental Politics 18, no. 5 (September 2009): 765–80.
  21.  Two responses to David Noble are: Derrick O’Keefe, “Denying Time and Place in the Global Warming Debate,” Climate & Capitalism, June 7, 2007, http://climateandcapitalism.com; Justin Podur, “Global Warming Suspicions and Confusions,” ZNet, May 11, 2007, http://zcommunications.org.
  22.  Pablo Solón, “A Contribution to the Climate Space 2013: How to Overcome the Climate Crisis?,”Climate Space, March 14, 2013, http://climatespace2013.wordpress.com.
  23.  David Spratt, Always Look on the Bright Side of Life: Bright-siding Climate Advocacy and Its Consequences, April 2012, http://climatecodered.org.
  24.  Joe Romm, “Apocalypse Not.”

Ian Angus is editor of the online journal Climate & Capitalism. He is co-author of Too Many People? Population, Immigration, and the Environmental Crisis(Haymarket, 2011), and editor of The Global Fight for Climate Justice(Fernwood, 2010).
He would like to thank Simon Butler, Martin Empson, John Bellamy Foster, John Riddell, Javier Sethness, and Chris Williams for comments and suggestions.

Rising Seas (Nat Geo)

Picture of Seaside Heights, New Jersey, after Hurricane Sandy

As the planet warms, the sea rises. Coastlines flood. What will we protect? What will we abandon? How will we face the danger of rising seas?

By Tim Folger

Photographs by George Steinmetz

September 2013

By the time Hurricane Sandy veered toward the Northeast coast of the United States last October 29, it had mauled several countries in the Caribbean and left dozens dead. Faced with the largest storm ever spawned over the Atlantic, New York and other cities ordered mandatory evacuations of low-lying areas. Not everyone complied. Those who chose to ride out Sandy got a preview of the future, in which a warmer world will lead to inexorably rising seas.

Brandon d’Leo, a 43-year-old sculptor and surfer, lives on the Rockaway Peninsula, a narrow, densely populated, 11-mile-long sandy strip that juts from the western end of Long Island. Like many of his neighbors, d’Leo had remained at home through Hurricane Irene the year before. “When they told us the tidal surge from this storm would be worse, I wasn’t afraid,” he says. That would soon change.

D’Leo rents a second-floor apartment in a three-story house across the street from the beach on the peninsula’s southern shore. At about 3:30 in the afternoon he went outside. Waves were crashing against the five-and-a-half-mile-long boardwalk. “Water had already begun to breach the boardwalk,” he says. “I thought, Wow, we still have four and a half hours until high tide. In ten minutes the water probably came ten feet closer to the street.”

Back in his apartment, d’Leo and a neighbor, Davina Grincevicius, watched the sea as wind-driven rain pelted the sliding glass door of his living room. His landlord, fearing the house might flood, had shut off the electricity. As darkness fell, Grincevicius saw something alarming. “I think the boardwalk just moved,” she said. Within minutes another surge of water lifted the boardwalk again. It began to snap apart.

Three large sections of the boardwalk smashed against two pine trees in front of d’Leo’s apartment. The street had become a four-foot-deep river, as wave after wave poured water onto the peninsula. Cars began to float in the churning water, their wailing alarms adding to the cacophony of wind, rushing water, and cracking wood. A bobbing red Mini Cooper, its headlights flashing, became wedged against one of the pine trees in the front yard. To the west the sky lit up with what looked like fireworks—electrical transformers were exploding in Breezy Point, a neighborhood near the tip of the peninsula. More than one hundred homes there burned to the ground that night.

The trees in the front yard saved d’Leo’s house, and maybe the lives of everyone inside—d’Leo, Grincevicius, and two elderly women who lived in an apartment downstairs. “There was no option to get out,” d’Leo says. “I have six surfboards in my apartment, and I was thinking, if anything comes through the wall, I’ll try to get everyone on those boards and try to get up the block. But if we’d had to get in that water, it wouldn’t have been good.”

After a fitful night’s sleep d’Leo went outside shortly before sunrise. The water had receded, but thigh-deep pools still filled parts of some streets. “Everything was covered with sand,” he says. “It looked like another planet.”

A profoundly altered planet is what our fossil-fuel-driven civilization is creating, a planet where Sandy-scale flooding will become more common and more destructive for the world’s coastal cities. By releasing carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere, we have warmed the Earth by more than a full degree Fahrenheit over the past century and raised sea level by about eight inches. Even if we stopped burning all fossil fuels tomorrow, the existing greenhouse gases would continue to warm the Earth for centuries. We have irreversibly committed future generations to a hotter world and rising seas.

In May the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached 400 parts per million, the highest since three million years ago. Sea levels then may have been as much as 65 feet above today’s; the Northern Hemisphere was largely ice free year-round. It would take centuries for the oceans to reach such catastrophic heights again, and much depends on whether we manage to limit future greenhouse gas emissions. In the short term scientists are still uncertain about how fast and how high seas will rise. Estimates have repeatedly been too conservative.

Global warming affects sea level in two ways. About a third of its current rise comes from thermal expansion—from the fact that water grows in volume as it warms. The rest comes from the melting of ice on land. So far it’s been mostly mountain glaciers, but the big concern for the future is the giant ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Six years ago the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a report predicting a maximum of 23 inches of sea-level rise by the end of this century. But that report intentionally omitted the possibility that the ice sheets might flow more rapidly into the sea, on the grounds that the physics of that process was poorly understood.

As the IPCC prepares to issue a new report this fall, in which the sea-level forecast is expected to be slightly higher, gaps in ice-sheet science remain. But climate scientists now estimate that Greenland and Antarctica combined have lost on average about 50 cubic miles of ice each year since 1992—roughly 200 billion metric tons of ice annually. Many think sea level will be at least three feet higher than today by 2100. Even that figure might be too low.

“In the last several years we’ve observed accelerated melting of the ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica,” says Radley Horton, a research scientist at Columbia University’s Earth Institute in New York City. “The concern is that if the acceleration continues, by the time we get to the end of the 21st century, we could see sea-level rise of as much as six feet globally instead of two to three feet.” Last year an expert panel convened by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration adopted 6.6 feet (two meters) as its highest of four scenarios for 2100. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers recommends that planners consider a high scenario of five feet.

One of the biggest wild cards in all sea-level-rise scenarios is the massive Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica. Four years ago NASA sponsored a series of flights over the region that used ice-penetrating radar to map the seafloor topography. The flights revealed that a 2,000-foot-high undersea ridge holds the Thwaites Glacier in place, slowing its slide into the sea. A rising sea could allow more water to seep between ridge and glacier and eventually unmoor it. But no one knows when or if that will happen.“That’s one place I’m really nervous about,” says Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State University and an author of the last IPCC report. “It involves the physics of ice fracture that we really don’t understand.” If the Thwaites Glacier breaks free from its rocky berth, that would liberate enough ice to raise sea level by three meters—nearly ten feet. “The odds are in our favor that it won’t put three meters in the ocean in the next century,” says Alley. “But we can’t absolutely guarantee that. There’s at least some chance that something very nasty will happen.”

Even in the absence of something very nasty, coastal cities face a twofold threat: Inexorably rising oceans will gradually inundate low-lying areas, and higher seas will extend the ruinous reach of storm surges. The threat will never go away; it will only worsen. By the end of the century a hundred-year storm surge like Sandy’s might occur every decade or less. Using a conservative prediction of a half meter (20 inches) of sea-level rise, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development estimates that by 2070, 150 million people in the world’s large port cities will be at risk from coastal flooding, along with $35 trillion worth of property—an amount that will equal 9 percent of the global GDP. How will they cope?

“During the last ice age there was a mile or two of ice above us right here,” says Malcolm Bowman, as we pull into his driveway in Stony Brook, New York, on Long Island’s north shore. “When the ice retreated, it left a heap of sand, which is Long Island. All these rounded stones you see—look there,” he says, pointing to some large boulders scattered among the trees near his home. “They’re glacial boulders.”

Bowman, a physical oceanographer at the State University of New York at Stony Brook, has been trying for years to persuade anyone who will listen that New York City needs a harbor-spanning storm-surge barrier. Compared with some other leading ports, New York is essentially defenseless in the face of hurricanes and floods. London, Rotterdam, St. Petersburg, New Orleans, and Shanghai have all built levees and storm barriers in the past few decades. New York paid a high price for its vulnerability last October. Sandy left 43 dead in the city, of whom 35 drowned; it cost the city some $19 billion. And it was all unnecessary, says Bowman.

“If a system of properly designed storm-surge barriers had been built—and strengthened with sand dunes at both ends along the low-lying coastal areas—there would have been no flooding damage from Sandy,” he says.

Bowman envisions two barriers: one at Throgs Neck, to keep surges from Long Island Sound out of the East River, and a second one spanning the harbor south of the city. Gates would accommodate ships and tides, closing only during storms, much like existing structures in the Netherlands and elsewhere. The southern barrier alone, stretching five miles between Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and the Rockaway Peninsula, might cost $10 billion to $15 billion, Bowman estimates. He pictures a six-lane toll highway on top that would provide a bypass route around the city and a light-rail line connecting the Newark and John F. Kennedy Airports.

“It could be an asset to the region,” says Bowman. “Eventually the city will have to face up to this, because the problem is going to get worse. It might take five years of study and another ten years to get the political will to do it. By then there might have been another disaster. We need to start planning immediately. Otherwise we’re mortgaging the future and leaving the next generation to cope as best it can.”

Another way to safeguard New York might be to revive a bit of its past. In the 16th-floor loft of her landscape architectural firm in lower Manhattan, Kate Orff pulls out a map of New York Harbor in the 19th century. The present-day harbor shimmers outside her window, calm and unthreatening on an unseasonably mild morning three months to the day after Sandy hit.

“Here’s an archipelago that protected Red Hook,” Orff says, pointing on the map to a small cluster of islands off the Brooklyn shore. “There was another chain of shoals that connected Sandy Hook to Coney Island.”

The islands and shallows vanished long ago, demolished by harbor-dredging and landfill projects that added new real estate to a burgeoning city. Orff would re-create some of them, particularly the Sandy Hook–Coney Island chain, and connect them with sluice gates that would close during a storm, forming an eco-engineered barrier that would cross the same waters as Bowman’s more conventional one. Behind it, throughout the harbor, would be dozens of artificial reefs built from stone, rope, and wood pilings and seeded with oysters and other shellfish. The reefs would continue to grow as sea levels rose, helping to buffer storm waves—and the shellfish, being filter feeders, would also help clean the harbor. “Twenty-five percent of New York Harbor used to be oyster beds,” Orff says.

Orff estimates her “oystertecture” vision could be brought to life at relatively low cost. “It would be chump change compared with a conventional barrier. And it wouldn’t be money wasted: Even if another Sandy never happens, you’d have a cleaner, restored harbor in a more ecologically vibrant context and a healthier New York.”

In June, Mayor Michael Bloomberg outlined a $19.5 billion plan to defend New York City against rising seas. “Sandy was a temporary setback that can ultimately propel us forward,” he said. The mayor’s proposal calls for the construction of levees, local storm-surge barriers, sand dunes, oyster reefs, and more than 200 other measures. It goes far beyond anything planned by any other American city. But the mayor dismissed the idea of a harbor barrier. “A giant barrier across our harbor is neither practical nor affordable,” Bloomberg said. The plan notes that since a barrier would remain open most of the time, it would not protect the city from the inch-by-inch creep of sea-level rise.

Meanwhile, development in the city’s flood zones continues. Klaus Jacob, a geophysicist at Columbia University, says the entire New York metropolitan region urgently needs a master plan to ensure that future construction will at least not exacerbate the hazards from rising seas.

“The problem is we’re still building the city of the past,” says Jacob. “The people of the 1880s couldn’t build a city for the year 2000—of course not. And we cannot build a year-2100 city now. But we should not build a city now that we know will not function in 2100. There are opportunities to renew our infrastructure. It’s not all bad news. We just have to grasp those opportunities.”

Will New York grasp them after Bloomberg leaves office at the end of this year? And can a single storm change not just a city’s but a nation’s policy? It has happened before. The Netherlands had its own stormy reckoning 60 years ago, and it transformed the country.

The storm roared in from the North Sea on the night of January 31, 1953. Ria Geluk was six years old at the time and living where she lives today, on the island of Schouwen Duiveland in the southern province of Zeeland. She remembers a neighbor knocking on the door of her parents’ farmhouse in the middle of the night to tell them that the dike had failed. Later that day the whole family, along with several neighbors who had spent the night, climbed to the roof, where they huddled in blankets and heavy coats in the wind and rain. Geluk’s grandparents lived just across the road, but water swept into the village with such force that they were trapped in their home. They died when it collapsed.

“Our house kept standing,” says Geluk. “The next afternoon the tide came again. My father could see around us what was happening; he could see houses disappearing. You knew when a house disappeared, the people were killed. In the afternoon a fishing boat came to rescue us.”

In 1997 Geluk helped found the Watersnoodmuseum—the “flood museum”—on Schouwen Duiveland. The museum is housed in four concrete caissons that engineers used to plug dikes in 1953. The disaster killed 1,836 in all, nearly half in Zeeland, including a baby born on the night of the storm.

Afterward the Dutch launched an ambitious program of dike and barrier construction called the Delta Works, which lasted more than four decades and cost more than six billion dollars. One crucial project was the five-mile-long Oosterscheldekering, or Eastern Scheldt barrier, completed 27 years ago to defend Zeeland from the sea. Geluk points to it as we stand on a bank of the Scheldt estuary near the museum, its enormous pylons just visible on the horizon. The final component of the Delta Works, a movable barrier protecting Rotterdam Harbor and some 1.5 million people, was finished in 1997.

Like other primary sea barriers in the Netherlands, it’s built to withstand a 1-in-10,000-year storm—the strictest standard in the world. (The United States uses a 1-in-100 standard.) The Dutch government is now considering whether to upgrade the protection levels to bring them in line with sea-level-rise projections.

Such measures are a matter of national security for a country where 26 percent of the land lies below sea level. With more than 10,000 miles of dikes, the Netherlands is fortified to such an extent that hardly anyone thinks about the threat from the sea, largely because much of the protection is so well integrated into the landscape that it’s nearly invisible.

On a bitingly cold February afternoon I spend a couple of hours walking around Rotterdam with Arnoud Molenaar, the manager of the city’s Climate Proof program, which aims to make Rotterdam resistant to the sea levels expected by 2025. About 20 minutes into our walk we climb a sloping street next to a museum designed by the architect Rem Koolhaas. The presence of a hill in this flat city should have alerted me, but I’m surprised when Molenaar tells me that we’re walking up the side of a dike. He gestures to some nearby pedestrians. “Most of the people around us don’t realize this is a dike either,” he says. The Westzeedijk shields the inner city from the Meuse River a few blocks to the south, but the broad, busy boulevard on top of it looks like any other Dutch thoroughfare, with flocks of cyclists wheeling along in dedicated lanes.

As we walk, Molenaar points out assorted subtle flood-control structures: an underground parking garage designed to hold 10,000 cubic meters—more than 2.5 million gallons—of rainwater; a street flanked by two levels of sidewalks, with the lower one designed to store water, leaving the upper walkway dry. Late in the afternoon we arrive at Rotterdam’s Floating Pavilion, a group of three connected, transparent domes on a platform in a harbor off the Meuse. The domes, about three stories tall, are made of a plastic that’s a hundred times as light as glass.

Inside we have sweeping views of Rotterdam’s skyline; hail clatters overhead as low clouds scud in from the North Sea. Though the domes are used for meetings and exhibitions, their main purpose is to demonstrate the wide potential of floating urban architecture. By 2040 the city anticipates that as many as 1,200 homes will float in the harbor. “We think these structures will be important not just for Rotterdam but for many cities around the world,” says Bart Roeffen, the architect who designed the pavilion. The homes of 2040 will not necessarily be domes; Roeffen chose that shape for its structural integrity and its futuristic appeal. “To build on water is not new, but to develop floating communities on a large scale and in a harbor with tides—that is new,” says Molenaar. “Instead of fighting against water, we want to live with it.”

While visiting the Netherlands, I heard one joke repeatedly: “God may have built the world, but the Dutch built Holland.” The country has been reclaiming land from the sea for nearly a thousand years—much of Zeeland was built that way. Sea-level rise does not yet panic the Dutch.

“We cannot retreat! Where could we go? Germany?” Jan Mulder has to shout over the wind—we’re walking along a beach called Kijkduin as volleys of sleet exfoliate our faces. Mulder is a coastal morphologist with Deltares, a private coastal management firm. This morning he and Douwe Sikkema, a project manager with the province of South Holland, have brought me to see the latest in adaptive beach protection. It’s called the zandmotor—the sand engine.

The seafloor offshore, they explain, is thick with hundreds of feet of sand deposited by rivers and retreating glaciers. North Sea waves and currents once distributed that sand along the coast. But as sea level has risen since the Ice Age, the waves no longer reach deep enough to stir up sand, and the currents have less sand to spread around. Instead the sea erodes the coast here.

The typical solution would be to dredge sand offshore and dump it directly on the eroding beaches—and then repeat the process year after year as the sand washes away. Mulder and his colleagues recommended that the provincial government try a different strategy: a single gargantuan dredging operation to create the sandy peninsula we’re walking on—a hook-shaped stretch of beach the size of 250 football fields. If the scheme works, over the next 20 years the wind, waves, and tides will spread its sand 15 miles up and down the coast. The combination of wind, waves, tides, and sand is the zandmotor.

The project started only two years ago, but it seems to be working. Mulder shows me small dunes that have started to grow on a beach where there was once open water. “It’s very flexible,” he says. “If we see that sea-level rise increases, we can increase the amount of sand.” Sikkema adds, “And it’s much easier to adjust the amount of sand than to rebuild an entire system of dikes.”

Later Mulder tells me about a memorial inscription affixed to the Eastern Scheldt barrier in Zeeland: “It says, ‘Hier gaan over het tij, de maan, de wind, en wij—Here the tide is ruled by the moon, the wind, and us.’ ” It reflects the confidence of a generation that took for granted, as we no longer can, a reasonably stable world. “We have to understand that we are not ruling the world,” says Mulder. “We need to adapt.”

With the threats of climate change and sea-level rise looming over us all, cities around the world, from New York to Ho Chi Minh City, have turned to the Netherlands for guidance. One Dutch firm, Arcadis, has prepared a conceptual design for a storm-surge barrier in the Verrazano Narrows to protect New York City. The same company helped design a $1.1 billion, two-mile-long barrier that protected New Orleans from a 13.6-foot storm surge last summer, when Hurricane Isaac hit. The Lower Ninth Ward, which suffered so greatly during Hurricane Katrina, was unscathed.

“Isaac was a tremendous victory for New Orleans,” Piet Dircke, an Arcadis executive, tells me one night over dinner in Rotterdam. “All the barriers were closed; all the levees held; all the pumps worked. You didn’t hear about it? No, because nothing happened.”

New Orleans may be safe for a few decades, but the long-term prospects for it and other low-lying cities look dire. Among the most vulnerable is Miami. “I cannot envision southeastern Florida having many people at the end of this century,” says Hal Wanless, chairman of the department of geological sciences at the University of Miami. We’re sitting in his basement office, looking at maps of Florida on his computer. At each click of the mouse, the years pass, the ocean rises, and the peninsula shrinks. Freshwater wetlands and mangrove swamps collapse—a death spiral that has already started on the southern tip of the peninsula. With seas four feet higher than they are today—a distinct possibility by 2100—about two-thirds of southeastern Florida is inundated. The Florida Keys have almost vanished. Miami is an island.

When I ask Wanless if barriers might save Miami, at least in the short term, he leaves his office for a moment. When he returns, he’s holding a foot-long cylindrical limestone core. It looks like a tube of gray, petrified Swiss cheese. “Try to plug this up,” he says. Miami and most of Florida sit atop a foundation of highly porous limestone. The limestone consists of the remains of countless marine creatures deposited more than 65 million years ago, when a warm, shallow sea covered what is now Florida—a past that may resemble the future here.

A barrier would be pointless, Wanless says, because water would just flow through the limestone beneath it. “No doubt there will be some dramatic engineering feats attempted,” he says. “But the limestone is so porous that even massive pumping systems won’t be able to keep the water out.”

Sea-level rise has already begun to threaten Florida’s freshwater supply. About a quarter of the state’s 19 million residents depend on wells sunk into the enormous Biscayne aquifer. Salt water is now seeping into it from dozens of canals that were built to drain the Everglades. For decades the state has tried to control the saltwater influx by building dams and pumping stations on the drainage canals. These “salinity-control structures” maintain a wall of fresh water behind them to block the underground intrusion of salt water. To offset the greater density of salt water, the freshwater level in the control structures is generally kept about two feet higher than the encroaching sea.

But the control structures also serve a second function: During the state’s frequent rainstorms their gates must open to discharge the flood of fresh water to the sea.“We have about 30 salinity-control structures in South Florida,” says Jayantha Obeysekera, the chief hydrological modeler at the South Florida Water Management District. “At times now the water level in the sea is higher than the freshwater level in the canal.” That both accelerates saltwater intrusion and prevents the discharge of flood waters. “The concern is that this will get worse with time as the sea-level rise accelerates,” Obeysekera says.

Using fresh water to block the salt water will eventually become impractical, because the amount of fresh water needed would submerge ever larger areas behind the control structures, in effect flooding the state from the inside. “With 50 centimeters [about 20 inches] of sea-level rise, 80 percent of the salinity-control structures in Florida will no longer be functional,” says Wanless. “We’ll either have to drown communities to keep the freshwater head above sea level or have saltwater intrusion.” When sea level rises two feet, he says, Florida’s aquifers may be poisoned beyond recovery. Even now, during unusually high tides, seawater spouts from sewers in Miami Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and other cities, flooding streets.

In a state exposed to hurricanes as well as rising seas, people like John Van Leer, an oceanographer at the University of Miami, worry that one day they will no longer be able to insure—or sell—their houses. “If buyers can’t insure it, they can’t get a mortgage on it. And if they can’t get a mortgage, you can only sell to cash buyers,” Van Leer says. “What I’m looking for is a climate-change denier with a lot of money.”

Unless we change course dramatically in the coming years, our carbon emissions will create a world utterly different in its very geography from the one in which our species evolved. “With business as usual, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will reach around a thousand parts per million by the end of the century,” says Gavin Foster, a geochemist at the University of Southampton in England. Such concentrations, he says, haven’t been seen on Earth since the early Eocene epoch, 50 million years ago, when the planet was completely ice free. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, sea level on an iceless Earth would be as much as 216 feet higher than it is today. It might take thousands of years and more than a thousand parts per million to create such a world—but if we burn all the fossil fuels, we will get there.

No matter how much we reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, Foster says, we’re already locked in to at least several feet of sea-level rise, and perhaps several dozens of feet, as the planet slowly adjusts to the amount of carbon that’s in the atmosphere already. A recent Dutch study predicted that the Netherlands could engineer solutions at a manageable cost to a rise of as much as five meters, or 16 feet. Poorer countries will struggle to adapt to much less. At different times in different places, engineering solutions will no longer suffice. Then the retreat from the coast will begin. In some places there will be no higher ground to retreat to.

By the next century, if not sooner, large numbers of people will have to abandon coastal areas in Florida and other parts of the world. Some researchers fear a flood tide of climate-change refugees. “From the Bahamas to Bangladesh and a major amount of Florida, we’ll all have to move, and we may have to move at the same time,” says Wanless. “We’re going to see civil unrest, war. You just wonder how—or if—civilization will function. How thin are the threads that hold it all together? We can’t comprehend this. We think Miami has always been here and will always be here. How do you get people to realize that Miami—or London—will not always be there?”

What will New York look like in 200 years? Klaus Jacob, the Columbia geophysicist, sees downtown Manhattan as a kind of Venice, subject to periodic flooding, perhaps with canals and yellow water cabs. Much of the city’s population, he says, will gather on high ground in the other boroughs. “High ground will become expensive, waterfront will become cheap,” he says. But among New Yorkers, as among the rest of us, the idea that the sea is going to rise—a lot—hasn’t really sunk in yet. Of the thousands of people in New York State whose homes were badly damaged or destroyed by Sandy’s surge, only 10 to 15 percent are expected to accept the state’s offer to buy them out at their homes’ pre-storm value. The rest plan to rebuild.

Is War Really Disappearing? New Analysis Suggests Not (Science Daily)

Aug. 29, 2013 — While some researchers have claimed that war between nations is in decline, a new analysis suggests we shouldn’t be too quick to celebrate a more peaceful world.

The study finds that there is no clear trend indicating that nations are less eager to wage war, said Bear Braumoeller, author of the study and associate professor of political science at The Ohio State University.

Conflict does appear to be less common than it had been in the past, he said. But that’s due more to an inability to fight than to an unwillingness to do so.

“As empires fragment, the world has split up into countries that are smaller, weaker and farther apart, so they are less able to fight each other,” Braumoeller said.

“Once you control for their ability to fight each other, the proclivity to go to war hasn’t really changed over the last two centuries.”

Braumoeller presented his research Aug. 29 in Chicago at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association.

Several researchers have claimed in recent years that war is in decline, most notably Steven Pinker in his 2011 book The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined.

As evidence, Pinker points to a decline in war deaths per capita. But Braumoeller said he believes that is a flawed measure.

“That accurately reflects the average citizen’s risk from death in war, but countries’ calculations in war are more complicated than that,” he said.

Moreover, since population grows exponentially, it would be hard for war deaths to keep up with the booming number of people in the world.

Because we cannot predict whether wars will be quick and easy or long and drawn-out (“Remember ‘Mission Accomplished?'” Braumoeller says) a better measure of how warlike we as humans are is to start with how often countries use force — such as missile strikes or armed border skirmishes — against other countries, he said.

“Any one of these uses of force could conceivably start a war, so their frequency is a good indication of how war prone we are at any particular time,” he said.

Braumoeller used the Correlates of War Militarized Interstate Dispute database, which scholars from around the world study to measure uses of force up to and including war.

The data shows that the uses of force held more or less constant through World War I, but then increased steadily thereafter.

This trend is consistent with the growth in the number of countries over the course of the last two centuries.

But just looking at the number of conflicts per pair of countries is misleading, he said, because countries won’t go to war if they aren’t “politically relevant” to each other.

Military power and geography play a big role in relevance; it is unlikely that a small, weak country in South America would start a war with a small, weak country in Africa.

Once Braumoeller took into account both the number of countries and their political relevance to one another, the results showed essentially no change to the trend of the use of force over the last 200 years.

While researchers such as Pinker have suggested that countries are actually less inclined to fight than they once were, Braumoeller said these results suggest a different reason for the recent decline in war.

“With countries being smaller, weaker and more distant from each other, they certainly have less ability to fight. But we as humans shouldn’t get credit for being more peaceful just because we’re not as able fight as we once were,” he said.

“There is no indication that we actually have less proclivity to wage war.”

How Vegetation Competes for Rainfall in Dry Regions (Science Daily)

Aug. 30, 2013 — The greater the plant density in a given area, the greater the amount of rainwater that seeps into the ground. This is due to a higher presence of dense roots and organic matter in the soil. Since water is a limited resource in many dry ecosystems, such as semi-arid environments and semi-deserts, there is a benefit to vegetation to adapt by forming closer networks with little space between plants. 

Vertical aerial view of a tiger bush plateau in Niger. Vegetation is dominated by Combretum micranthum and Guiera senegalensis. Image size : 5 x 5 km on the ground. Satellite image from the Declassified corona KH-4A national intelligence reconnaissance system, 1965-12-31. (Credit: Courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey)

Hence, vegetation in semi-arid environments (or regions with low rainfall) self-organizes into patterns or “bands.” The pattern formation occurs where stripes of vegetation run parallel to the contours of a hill, and are interlaid with stripes of bare ground. Banded vegetation is common where there is low rainfall. In a paper published last month in the SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics, author Jonathan A. Sherratt uses a mathematical model to determine the levels of precipitation within which such pattern formation occurs.

“Vegetation patterns are a common feature in semi-arid environments, occurring in Africa, Australia and North America,” explains Sherratt. “Field studies of these ecosystems are extremely difficult because of their remoteness and physical harshness; moreover there are no laboratory replicates. Therefore mathematical modeling has the potential to be an extremely valuable tool, enabling prediction of how pattern vegetation will respond to changes in external conditions.”

Several mathematical models have attempted to address banded vegetation in semi-arid environments, of which the oldest and most established is a system of partial differential equations, called the Klausmeier model.

The Klausmeier model is based on a water redistribution hypothesis, which assumes that rain falling on bare ground infiltrates only slightly; most of it runs downhill in the direction of the next vegetation band. It is here that rain water seeps into the soil and promotes growth of new foliage. This implies that moisture levels are higher on the uphill edge of the bands. Hence, as plants compete for water, bands move uphill with each generation. This uphill migration of bands occurs as new vegetation grows upslope of the bands and old vegetation dies on the downslope edge.

In this paper, the author uses the Klausmeier model, which is a system of reaction-diffusion-advection equations, to determine the critical rainfall level needed for pattern formation based on a variety of ecological parameters, such as rainfall, evaporation, plant uptake, downhill flow, and plant loss. He also investigates the uphill migration speeds of the bands. “My research focuses on the way in which patterns change as annual rainfall varies. In particular, I predict an abrupt shift in pattern formation as rainfall is decreased, which dramatically affects ecosystems,” says Sherratt. “The mathematical analysis enables me to derive a formula for the minimum level of annual rainfall for which banded vegetation is viable; below this, there is a transition to complete desert.”

The model has value in making resource decisions and addressing environmental concerns. “Since many semi-arid regions with banded vegetation are used for grazing and/or timber, this prediction has significant implications for land management,” Sherratt says. “Another issue for which mathematical modeling can be of value is the resilience of patterned vegetation to environmental change. This type of conclusion raises the possibility of using mathematical models as an early warning system that catastrophic changes in the ecosystem are imminent, enabling appropriate action (such as reduced grazing).”

The simplicity of the model allows the author to make detailed predictions, but more realistic models are required to further this work. “All mathematical models are a compromise between the complexity needed to adequately reflect real-world phenomena, and the simplicity that enables the application of mathematical methods. My paper concerns a relatively simple model for vegetation patterning, and I have been able to exploit this simplicity to obtain detailed mathematical predictions,” explains Sherratt. “A number of other researchers have proposed more realistic (and more complex) models, and corresponding study of these models is an important area for future work. The mathematical challenges are considerable, but the rewards would be great, with the potential to predict things such as critical levels of annual rainfall with a high degree of quantitative accuracy.”

Journal Reference:

  1. Jonathan A. Sherratt. Pattern Solutions of the Klausmeier Model for Banded Vegetation in Semiarid Environments V: The Transition from Patterns to DesertSIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics, 2013; 73 (4): 1347 DOI:10.1137/120899510

Poor Concentration: Poverty Reduces Brainpower Needed for Navigating Other Areas of Life (Science Daily)

Aug. 29, 2013 — Poverty and all its related concerns require so much mental energy that the poor have less remaining brainpower to devote to other areas of life, according to research based at Princeton University. As a result, people of limited means are more likely to make mistakes and bad decisions that may be amplified by — and perpetuate — their financial woes. 

Research based at Princeton University found that poverty and all its related concerns require so much mental energy that the poor have less remaining brainpower to devote to other areas of life. Experiments showed that the impact of financial concerns on the cognitive function of low-income individuals was similar to a 13-point dip in IQ, or the loss of an entire night’s sleep. To gauge the influence of poverty in natural contexts, the researchers tested 464 sugarcane farmers in India who rely on the annual harvest for at least 60 percent of their income. Each farmer performed better on common fluid-intelligence and cognition tests post-harvest compared to pre-harvest. (Credit: Image courtesy of Princeton University)

Published in the journal Science, the study presents a unique perspective regarding the causes of persistent poverty. The researchers suggest that being poor may keep a person from concentrating on the very avenues that would lead them out of poverty. A person’s cognitive function is diminished by the constant and all-consuming effort of coping with the immediate effects of having little money, such as scrounging to pay bills and cut costs. Thusly, a person is left with fewer “mental resources” to focus on complicated, indirectly related matters such as education, job training and even managing their time.

In a series of experiments, the researchers found that pressing financial concerns had an immediate impact on the ability of low-income individuals to perform on common cognitive and logic tests. On average, a person preoccupied with money problems exhibited a drop in cognitive function similar to a 13-point dip in IQ, or the loss of an entire night’s sleep.

But when their concerns were benign, low-income individuals performed competently, at a similar level to people who were well off, said corresponding author Jiaying Zhao, who conducted the study as a doctoral student in the lab of co-author Eldar Shafir, Princeton’s William Stewart Tod Professor of Psychology and Public Affairs. Zhao and Shafir worked with Anandi Mani, an associate professor of economics at the University of Warwick in Britain, and Sendhil Mullainathan, a Harvard University economics professor.

“These pressures create a salient concern in the mind and draw mental resources to the problem itself. That means we are unable to focus on other things in life that need our attention,” said Zhao, who is now an assistant professor of psychology at the University of British Columbia.

“Previous views of poverty have blamed poverty on personal failings, or an environment that is not conducive to success,” she said. “We’re arguing that the lack of financial resources itself can lead to impaired cognitive function. The very condition of not having enough can actually be a cause of poverty.”

The mental tax that poverty can put on the brain is distinct from stress, Shafir explained. Stress is a person’s response to various outside pressures that — according to studies of arousal and performance — can actually enhance a person’s functioning, he said. In the Science study, Shafir and his colleagues instead describe an immediate rather than chronic preoccupation with limited resources that can be a detriment to unrelated yet still important tasks.

“Stress itself doesn’t predict that people can’t perform well — they may do better up to a point,” Shafir said. “A person in poverty might be at the high part of the performance curve when it comes to a specific task and, in fact, we show that they do well on the problem at hand. But they don’t have leftover bandwidth to devote to other tasks. The poor are often highly effective at focusing on and dealing with pressing problems. It’s the other tasks where they perform poorly.”

The fallout of neglecting other areas of life may loom larger for a person just scraping by, Shafir said. Late fees tacked on to a forgotten rent payment, a job lost because of poor time-management — these make a tight money situation worse. And as people get poorer, they tend to make difficult and often costly decisions that further perpetuate their hardship, Shafir said. He and Mullainathan were co-authors on a 2012 Science paper that reported a higher likelihood of poor people to engage in behaviors that reinforce the conditions of poverty, such as excessive borrowing.

“They can make the same mistakes, but the outcomes of errors are more dear,” Shafir said. “So, if you live in poverty, you’re more error prone and errors cost you more dearly — it’s hard to find a way out.”

The first set of experiments took place in a New Jersey mall between 2010 and 2011 with roughly 400 subjects chosen at random. Their median annual income was around $70,000 and the lowest income was around $20,000. The researchers created scenarios wherein subjects had to ponder how they would solve financial problems, for example, whether they would handle a sudden car repair by paying in full, borrowing money or putting the repairs off. Participants were assigned either an “easy” or “hard” scenario in which the cost was low or high — such as $150 or $1,500 for the car repair. While participants pondered these scenarios, they performed common fluid-intelligence and cognition tests.

Subjects were divided into a “poor” group and a “rich” group based on their income. The study showed that when the scenarios were easy — the financial problems not too severe — the poor and rich performed equally well on the cognitive tests. But when they thought about the hard scenarios, people at the lower end of the income scale performed significantly worse on both cognitive tests, while the rich participants were unfazed.

To better gauge the influence of poverty in natural contexts, between 2010 and 2011 the researchers also tested 464 sugarcane farmers in India who rely on the annual harvest for at least 60 percent of their income. Because sugarcane harvests occur once a year, these are farmers who find themselves rich after harvest and poor before it. Each farmer was given the same tests before and after the harvest, and performed better on both tests post-harvest compared to pre-harvest.

The cognitive effect of poverty the researchers found relates to the more general influence of “scarcity” on cognition, which is the larger focus of Shafir’s research group. Scarcity in this case relates to any deficit — be it in money, time, social ties or even calories — that people experience in trying to meet their needs. Scarcity consumes “mental bandwidth” that would otherwise go to other concerns in life, Zhao said.

“These findings fit in with our story of how scarcity captures attention. It consumes your mental bandwidth,” Zhao said. “Just asking a poor person to think about hypothetical financial problems reduces mental bandwidth. This is an acute, immediate impact, and has implications for scarcity of resources of any kind.”

“We documented similar effects among people who are not otherwise poor, but on whom we imposed scarce resources,” Shafir added. “It’s not about being a poor person — it’s about living in poverty.”

Many types of scarcity are temporary and often discretionary, said Shafir, who is co-author with Mullainathan of the book, “Scarcity: Why Having Too Little Means So Much,” to be published in September. For instance, a person pressed for time can reschedule appointments, cancel something or even decide to take on less.

“When you’re poor you can’t say, ‘I’ve had enough, I’m not going to be poor anymore.’ Or, ‘Forget it, I just won’t give my kids dinner, or pay rent this month.’ Poverty imposes a much stronger load that’s not optional and in very many cases is long lasting,” Shafir said. “It’s not a choice you’re making — you’re just reduced to few options. This is not something you see with many other types of scarcity.”

The researchers suggest that services for the poor should accommodate the dominance that poverty has on a person’s time and thinking. Such steps would include simpler aid forms and more guidance in receiving assistance, or training and educational programs structured to be more forgiving of unexpected absences, so that a person who has stumbled can more easily try again.

“You want to design a context that is more scarcity proof,” said Shafir, noting that better-off people have access to regular support in their daily lives, be it a computer reminder, a personal assistant, a housecleaner or a babysitter.

“There’s very little you can do with time to get more money, but a lot you can do with money to get more time,” Shafir said. “The poor, who our research suggests are bound to make more mistakes and pay more dearly for errors, inhabit contexts often not designed to help.”

Journal Reference:

  1. A. Mani, S. Mullainathan, E. Shafir, J. Zhao. Poverty Impedes Cognitive FunctionScience, 2013; 341 (6149): 976 DOI: 10.1126/science.1238041

Paraíso sitiado (O Globo)

O drama dos índios Awá e a resistência de seu povo que tenta impedir a ação criminosa de madeireiros na Reserva Biológica Gurupi, onde o território indígena já perdeu 30% de sua paisagem original.

REPORTAGEM: MÍRIAM LEITÃO – FOTOS: SEBASTIÃO SALGADO

Vídeos

QUANDO A SOBREVIVÊNCIA EXIGE CORAGEM

O drama do povo Awá na luta contra o desmatamento na Reserva Biológica Gurupi

TESTEMUNHAS DA HISTÓRIA AWÁ

A repórter Míriam Leitão fala do privilégio de acompanhar o fotógrafo Sebastião Salgado pela Aldeia Juriti

A IMPUNIDADE ROMPE O SILÊNCIO DA NOITE

Míriam Leitão flagra madeireiros em ação à noite numa serraria clandestina no interior do Maranhão

Sobreviver com coragem

Considerados um dos últimos povos caçadores e coletores do planeta, os poucos mais de 400 Awá que povoam o que restou da Floresta Amazônica no Maranhão vivem o momento mais decisivo de sua sobrevivência: impedir que grileiros, posseiros e madeireiros destruam o seu mais valioso bem. É das árvores e da mata densa situadas na Reserva Biológica do Gurupi, de onde tiram o seu alimento, a sua certeza de amanhã poderem garantir a continuação de seu povo, de sua gente. Eles não querem nada mais do que a garantia do governo federal de que não terão o seu terrítório devastado pela ganância do homem branco, que avança a passos largos em busca de madeira nobre.

Apesar de sua terra já estar demarcada, homologada e registrada com 116.582 hectares pela União, eles enfrentam uma ameaça real de assistir à destruição da floresta da qual são tão dependentes e de onde tiram o sustento de seus filhos. Ainda que a Justiça já tenha determinada a retirada desses ‘intrusos’ ou não índios, como define a Funai, os Awá temem pela própria sorte, se afirmam em sua coragem e não vacilam quando veem sua resistência em xeque. “Não temos medo. Vamos resistir”, dizem em discursos emocionados.

A repórter Míriam Leitão, a convite do renomado fotógrafo Sebastião Salgado, viajou até a Aldeia Juriti e pôde comprovar como os Awá vivem essa dramática expectativa. Neste ambiente especial, que complementa a série de reportagens publicadas na edição dominical de O GLOBO, o leitor poderá saber mais do cotidiano dos chamados ‘índios invisíveis’, como vivem, e como reverenciam a sua sagrada cultura.

Sem Título-1Reserva Biológica Gurupi
Terra Indígena Awa
Terra Indígena Caru
Terra Indígena Alto Turiaçu

Áudio

A AMEAÇA DOS MADEIREIROS

Sebastião Salgado se prepara para fotografar os Awá

O DISCURSO AWÁ

Ouça trecho da fala de uma das lideranças Awá

DENÚNCIA

A repórter Míriam Leitão flagra a ação ilegal de madeireiros em uma serraria

O JOVEM GUERREIRO JUI’I

Ouça trecho de seu discurso

OS ÍNDIOS INVISÍVEIS

O antropólogo Uirá Garcia fala sobre a cultura Awá

O CANTO DA CAÇA

Ouça o canto do jovem guerreiro antes de ir à caça

“NÓS TEMOS CORAGEM TAMBÉM”

O jovem guerreiro Jui’i fala da ameaça dos madeireiros

Textos

A LUTA CONTRA A DESTRUIÇÃO DOS MADEIREIROS

Awás tentam sobreviver à ação criminosa dos desmatadores

PARA OS AWÁ, A TRAGÉDIA DO DESMATAMENTO ATINGE A TERRA E O CÉU

Fim da floresta os impedirá de virar ‘Karauaras’, seres que habitam o mundo após a morte

SILENCIOSOS, AWÁ SE CONFUNDEM COM A MATA

Audição acima dos padrões comuns permite ouvir som da devastação a quilômetros

‘ESTAMOS BRAVOS. ASSIM ELES VÃO NOS MATAR’, DIZ LIDERANÇA AWÁ

Após vencer a desconfiança dos índios, ouve-se o desabafo: ‘Quero ficar na minha casa’

FOTOGALERIA

Os Awás pelas lentes de Sebastião Salgado

MADEIREIROS IMPÕEM SUA LEI

Em emboscadas, comerciantes de madeira demostram ter mais força do que a Polícia Federal e a Força Nacional juntas

NO CAMINHO DA VOLTA, O ENCONTRO COM O CRIME

Na estradas que ligam terra Awá, grileiros, serrarias e caminhões agem na certeza da impunidade

MINISTRO: RETIRADA DE TERRA AWÁ TERÁ PF, IBAMA E EXÉRCITO

Ministro da Justiça programa operação, atrasada pela vinda do Papa, já para este semestre

REPORTAGEM: MÍRIAM LEITÃO | FOTOS: SEBASTIÃO SALGADO | EDIÇÃO: DANIEL BIASETTO | MAPA: DANIEL LIMA | ARTE E DESENVOLVIMENTO: GUSTAVO SARAIVA | DESENVOLVIMENTO: AYRTON TESHIMA

Os Awá-Guajá viram bichos-pau (Yahoo! Notícias)

Por  – ter, 20 de ago de 2013

As primeiras fotos de índios surgiram no início mesmo da invenção e popularização dos daguerreótipos e câmeras fotográficas. Pelo Oeste americano intrépidos aventureiros arriscavam suas vidas e suas imensas geringonças para obter um clique de um grupo de guerreiros a cavalo, um retrato de um chefe indígena Sioux, Apache ou Comanche engalonado em suas casacas de couro de búfalo e seus exuberantes cocares de pena de águia. Posavam hirtos, de cara dura, olhando para o horizonte infinito, como se estivessem em alguma solenidade com autoridades estrangeiras, quem sabe, o próprio presidente americano, manifestando sua dignidade humana para preservar ou recuperar seus territórios e ocupar um lugar digno no novo mundo que se criava ao seu redor.

Mas o destino lhes foi cruel demais.

Das fotos solenes, ao final dos anos de resistência (1830-1880) em que o Oeste foi definitivamente incorporado aos Estados Unidos da América, passou-se à dessacralização dos índios, quando até um líder de grande respeito, como Touro Sentado, chefe dos Sioux que destroçou o 6º Regimento de William Custer, na famosa batalha de Little Big Horn, se submeteu a ser uma das estrelas do famoso circo do fanfarrão Buffalo Bill, montando cavalos, dando gritos de guerra e empunhando um rifle winchester com balas de festim. O Wild West Circus fez história se apresentando nas cidades e bribocas que se formavam por todo o imenso centro-oeste americano. Mutatis mutandi, não pensem que no Brasil seja diferente!

As primeiras fotos de índios brasileiros, passado o tempo de viajantes estrangeiros fazendo desenhos e aquarelas, foram tiradas em cidades como Manaus e Cuiabá. Marc Ferrez, famoso por suas fotos do Rio de Janeiro, conseguiu levar um grupo de 11 índios Bororo para um studio em Cuiabá e os fotografou com maestria, mostrando como seres humanos dignos, em toda sua nudez virtuosa, ainda em 1880.

Indios Bororo , coleção Gilberto Ferrez

Indios Bororo , coleção Gilberto Ferrez

No campo, nas matas, nos cerrados, ao vivo em seus ambientes, fotos de índios brasileiros vão surgir pelas lentes de viajantes, cientistas e, no começo do século XX, pela Comissão Rondon, que percorreu todo o oeste do Mato Grosso, Rondônia e várias partes da Amazônia. Os índios aparecem ora desnudos completamente, com algum pano, uma tanga inventada na hora, ora vestidos em camisas sem gola, manga comprida, calças simples, como os pobres brasileiros da época, pés descalços, um ou outro em uniforme militar, as mulheres de saia e os seis expostos. Exceto nas missões, quando as saias desciam até os calcanhares.

A coloração em preto, cinza e branca dessas fotos é do tipo que hoje se chama sépia, a qual faz as imagens se diferenciarem tão somente pela textura e forma dos objetos, como se o mundo fosse uma penumbra. Visualizando isso, o espectador precisava de um esforço intelectual para ver e dar significado às distintas imagens. Por esse esforço as imagens ganhavam um significado muito além do real corriqueiro. De algum modo elas se sacralizavam, como se fosse um objeto antigo ou precioso. Daí porque naqueles tempos tornara-se de praxe os amigos se presentearem com retratos, que eram solenemente expostos nas salas e nos escritórios. Daí porque as fotos eram tratadas com reverência e carinho, e eram beijadas como se representassem as pessoas vivas.

A nitidez da coloração das fotos, desde os anos 1960, mudou o modo como as vemos e elas foram aos poucos se vulgarizando, tanto pela banalidade de sua existência quanto principalmente pelo realismo que elas nos evocam. A arte da fotografia, consequentemente, passou a requerer mais sutileza de luzes para obter algum senso de sacralidade do objeto visado.

E aqui chegamos ao objetivo desse artigo – as fotos tiradas pelo fotógrafo profissional Sebastião Salgado dos índios Awá-Guajá, do Maranhão, recentemente publicadas pelo jornal O Globo, em reportagem de Miriam Leitão.

Nessas fotos, os Guajá, a última sociedade a viver quase que exclusivamente da caça, pesca e coleta de animais, frutos e tubérculos da floresta, são fotografados em coloração sépia, com pouca luz, sob um fundo “natural” de árvores, raízes e chão. Apresentam-se nus, os homens com seus prepúcios amarrados com fibras de tucum, braceletes e auréolas de penas, meninos e meninas sem nada, e as mulheres em seus saiotes tecidos de fibras de tucum, bem como as tipóias em que carregam seus bebês.

Algumas fotos, talvez as que mais calaram fundo com os propósitos do fotógrafo mineiro-europeu, trazem grupos de homens e meninos adornados a caráter, todos em pé, fisionomias sérias, porém mudos e imóveis, arcos à mão, numa clara alusão de que são parte da floresta que lhes ladeia como o cenário de fundo e de compartilhamento.

Nas fotos de Salgado não há informação etnográfica, exceto aquela em que um caçador, que o reconheço pelo nome de Mutumhû, porta um macaco guariba morto pendurado às suas costas, com um olhar de inadvertida preocupação. Não sabemos como vivem os Guajá, como se alimentam, como amam e cuidam dos filhos, como se divertem e como sofrem. Não há tempo aqui. Nem eternidade, nem instantaneidade. Tempo morto.

A jornalista Miriam Leitão, emocionada com o quê viu, produziu alguns textos nos quais procura mostrar que os Guajá estão em perigo de sobrevivência, ecoando inadvertidamente as matérias da Survival International, uma ONG inglesa que alardeia que os Guajá são o povo em maior grau de perigo de sobrevivência do mundo. No total, os Guajá somam cerca de 360 pessoas, mas eram menos de 200 na década de 1980. A terra indígena visitada por Salgado e Leitão, chamada de Awá-Guajá, está parcialmente invadida por madeireiros e posseiros, sem dúvida, mas não consta nas matérias informação sobre por que isto está acontecendo e se a presença da FUNAI é eficiente ou não para deter esse perigo e para dar assistência aos índios. Por que tudo está tão ruim no indigenismo brasileiro da atualidade?

Os Guajá, em virtude de sua característica cultural de mobilidade, se dispersaram há mais de 100 anos por uma vasta área do oeste maranhense, e hoje se encontram morando em quatro terras indígenas, com pouco contato entre si. A terra indígena Awá-Guajá, com 116.000 hectares, conecta as terras indígenas Caru (172.000 ha) e Alto Turiaçu (530.000 ha), que juntas somam 718.000 hectares, compartilhadas com os povos Guajajara e Kaapor. Em vários trechos delas os últimos madeireiros do Maranhão se esbaldam, traçando picadas pelo meio da mata por onde passam seus tratores e caminhões carregados de toras de madeira de lei, sob as vistas grossas de alguns índios não Guajá, cooptados por migalhas, com rara presença do órgão indigenista, ultimamente em completa inatividade e decadência.

Aqueles Guajá que residem na Terra Indígena Awá-Guajá são, por ironia, os que estão mais bem protegidos por funcionários dedicados do órgão indigenista, funcionários que passam às vezes mais de 60 dias sem saírem do posto indígena perto do qual se fixou, há mais de 20 anos, o grupo Guajá visitado. Na verdade, o posto indígena não existe mais, foi extinto por um decreto presidencial, e só por teimosia é que os resolutos funcionários nele permanecem. É provável que tenham que se retirar de vez ainda este mês. Se ao menos essa informação e um pouco do histórico da luta desigual que esses funcionários travam para manter a dignidade dos índios, à indiferença das atitudes do poder federal, fossem divulgados aos leitores, algo mais verdadeiro e esperançoso teria surgido dessa expedição e das fotos obtidas.

Ilustrar com fotos artísticas e etnograficamente relevantes para informar o espectador e sensibilizá-lo para a causa indígena tem sido o mais nobre dos propósitos de fotógrafos e jornalistas. Neste caso, a informação jornalística sem dúvida pode pressionar o governo a tomar as medidas necessárias para seguir as ordens judiciais, exaradas há algum tempo pela Justiça Federal do Maranhão, para retirar de uma vez por todas todos os invasores que teimam em permanecer nessa terra, e coibir definitivamente as atividades destrutivas dos madeireiros. Nada disso é fácil, nas circunstâncias do anti-indigenismo oficial que estamos vivenciando. Este é o sentido que se esperava desta reportagem publicada em O Globo pelos dois competentes profissionais da informação.

Porém, para além desse propósito, as fotos de Sebastião Salgado têm um objetivo considerado transcendente. Salgado está engajado num projeto patrocinado por financiadores particulares e chancelado pela ONU com o intuito visionário, e, dir-se-ia, poético, no sentido de criativo, de captar do mundo atual, tão diversificado na natureza e nas culturas, mas tão dilapidado e com tendência à homogeneização, aquilo que representaria a gênese mesmo da Terra, da vida e do homem. Uma espécie de arqueologia ao vivo.

Assim, Salgado vem fotografando geleiras intocáveis, vulcões flamejantes, montanhas inalcançáveis e povos remotos e “imutáveis” na África, Ásia e Américas. Há sete anos passou um mês morando em duas aldeias dos índios do Alto Xingu capturando sua vida autêntica ao máximo. Durante a cerimônia do Kwarup, quando os índios celebram o fim de um período de luto pela morte de um parente respeitado, Salgado fez questão absoluta de fotografar a efeméride sem a presença de qualquer objeto exógeno à cultura xinguana, seja um cigarro de palha ou uma tira de pano, muito menos alguém não indígena, apesar da aldeia ter isso tudo e mais. As fotos são ahistóricas, pois todos os seus signos foram escoimados pelas lentes prístinas do fotógrafo. Entretanto, os índios xinguanos não vivem e não pensam assim: sabem que estão no meio do redemoinho histórico, sendo e vindo a ser, procurando seu lugar no mundo da atualidade, não flutuando em um éter deshistorizado.

Os Guajá sabem muito menos do nosso mundo, tão recente e tão sofrido tem sido sua aproximação conosco. Nós sabemos muito menos sobre eles. Sua cultura tradicional é viva, apesar dos objetos exógenos. Assim, retratá-los como figurantes da natureza, e mostrá-los como seres quase ctônicos, não deve ter sido difícil para Sebastião Salgado. Mas, ao invés do resultado se tornar uma imagem de auto-conhecimento para os Guajá para avançar em sua compreensibilidade do mundo que os massacra, e de ser um modo de nós os conhecer melhor para amá-los e os ajudar a sobreviver e encontrar um lugar seguro nesse mundo convoluto, essas fotografias se tornam um desserviço para todos nós, os Guajá em especial.

Por essas fotos, os Guajá se tornaram seres da natureza, animais ou vegetais, folhagem, até talvez bichos-pau mimetizados na sépia florestal. A estética da ecologização do mundo virou uma estética da desumanização do homem pelas lentes de um brasileiro que perdeu o senso de brasilidade e anda pelo mundo apegado às cadeias do espetáculo do faz-de-conta.

Can weather swing an election? (Discover)

By Seriously Science | May 22, 2013 10:30 am

Photo: flickr/hjl

It’s pretty obvious that weather can affect overall voter turnout; many people just don’t want to go out in the rain, even if it’s to exercise their civic duty. But does weather affect some political parties more than others? Are right-wing voters more likely to skip the polls on a rainy day? Do Democrats forget to vote when the surf’s up? Well, not many people go surfing in the Netherlands, but they do have elections and weather, and this study describes the relationship between the two.

Weather conditions and political party vote share in Dutch national parliament elections, 1971-2010.

“Inclement weather on election day is widely seen to benefit certain political parties at the expense of others. Empirical evidence for this weather-vote share hypothesis is sparse however. We examine the effects of rainfall and temperature on share of the votes of eight political parties that participated in 13 national parliament elections, held in the Netherlands from 1971 to 2010.This paper merges the election results for all Dutch municipalities with election-day weather observations drawn from all official weather stations well distributed over the country. We find that the weather parameters affect the election results in a statistically and politically significant way. Whereas the Christian Democratic party benefits from substantial rain (10 mm) on voting day by gaining one extra seat in the 150-seat Dutch national parliament, the left-wing Social Democratic (Labor) and the Socialist parties are found to suffer from cold and wet conditions. Cold (5°C) and rainy (10 mm) election day weather causes the latter parties to lose one or two parliamentary seats.”

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Master of Disaster (Discover)

Earthquakes and hurricanes will always wreak havoc, but risk management expert Robert Bea says the greatest tragedies result from hubris and greed.

By Linda Marsa|Thursday, May 23, 2013

Robert-Bea

Paul Chinn/San Francisco Chronicle/Corbis

Robert Bea has an unusual specialty: He studies disasters. As one of the world’s leading experts in catastrophic risk management, the former Shell Oil Co. executive sifts through the wreckage to unravel the chain of events that triggers accidents. The blunt-spoken civil engineer has spent more than a half-century investigating high-profile engineering failures, from the space shuttle Columbia’s horrific end to the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil-drilling rig in the Gulf.

A professor emeritus of civil engineering at the University of California, Berkeley, Bea’s disaster autopsy methods — such as looking at the organizational breakdowns that lead to calamities — have been widely adopted. Although policymakers and corporate honchos seek his counsel, sometimes they don’t like what he has to say — witness the flak he took from BP during the Deepwater Horizon probe.

Now in his mid-70s, Bea’s voice is raspier, but his critical faculties are undimmed. On a crisp fall day, he talked with DISCOVER in his comfortable one-story house in Moraga, a leafy suburb east of Berkeley, about what causes catastrophes.

You have said that engineering failures aren’t the chief culprits behind disasters, pointing instead to human and organizational failures — inadequate safety protocols, corporate hierarchies, conflicting egos or just plain laziness. Was there an “aha moment” when this became apparent?

When I was involved in the investigation into the Piper Alpha disaster, when an explosion destroyed an Occidental Petroleum oil-drilling platform in the North Sea, killing 167 men in 1988. The external investigation team that had been hired by Occidental into what caused Piper Alpha found it was a corporate culture that had gone bad, had lost its way.

I was part of that team all the way through the Lord Cullen Commission hearings in London, and I had to listen to one of my friends explain to the Cullen Commission why he and his colleagues had turned off the smoke alarms on the platform because the operating crew was doing a routine maintenance procedure late in the evening. Unfortunately, for over a month, certain alarms had been disabled to prevent unnecessary shutdowns on the rig — in some cases as a response to practical jokes. But turning off the alarms was one of the reasons they got caught by surprise.

Ironically, two years before, I was brought in to advise Occidental on risk management for Piper Alpha because they were having gas releases, pipes were leaking. Of course, you didn’t have to be very smart to say, “Yeah, we’ve got a problem — it’s called rusty pipes. And we’ve got problems with people not doing what they should be doing, and people who don’t understand what’s happening.”

One evening, during the first year of the investigation, I saw spread out on the reception table of the Occidental offices a copy of the London Times newspaper with a great, big, bold headline that said, “Occidental puts profit before safety.”

It had a picture of one of the bandaged, beat-up, horribly scarred survivors from the disaster who was telling this to the newspaper. What this survivor was observing is true. If you don’t have profitability, you don’t have the resources to invest in achieving adequate protection. What the tension is, is having the discipline and the foresight to make those investments before you’re in trouble.

When I came back to Berkeley after the investigation was completed, I realized that for the past 50-some-odd years of my career, I’d been working on 10 percent of the problems. I’d been working on normal engineering things, and 90 percent of the problems are humans and/or organizations.

We often have ample warnings before catastrophes hit, but we tend to ignore them until it’s too late. Why?

The problem is attention span, particularly in this country because we are a pretty young country. Our knowledge of history is very limited. We are extremely blessed. Lots of good things attract our attention. It’s a noisy environment, really noisy. It’s unusual to find people who are comfortable sitting in a room by themselves thinking.

You could say the eruption of Mount St. Helens was certainly painful, but it actually affected relatively few people and then disappeared into that strong noise environment. At that point people say, “Well, it’s never happened to me.

I can’t even remember my parents talking about it, and I’ve got these new things to play with, and they require attention,” like Facebook and Twitter. And suddenly, we have flitted from something that is difficult and painful to think about back to something that is enjoyable.

Piper-Alpha-Disaster

Robert Bea helped investigate the 1988 Piper Alpha disaster, where an exploding oil platform killed 167 in the North Sea. Press Association/AP

You seem to be suggesting that people have trouble dealing with issues over the long term. Are there other examples?

Well, global climate change is a perfect one, or rising sea levels. It’s happening slowly. People love living by the beach, so they build a beautiful home on a concrete slab, on top of the sand a few feet above sea level, and [ignore the fact] that the sea level is [rising]. So thinking about these slowly evolving long-term things, it is painful. It says, “Well, I might have to move my home. I really enjoy the beach,” and we don’t like to give those things up.

Is this inability to think long term also true of organizations — corporations or government agencies?

Yes. The equation for disaster is A + B = C. A is natural hazards, things like hurricanes, gases and liquids under pressure that are extremely volatile. They’re volcanoes. They’re tsunamis. They’re natural, and there’s nothing unusual about them. B is organizational hazards: people and their hubris, their arrogance, their greed. The real killer is our indolence.

So human error is the kindling that escalates a natural hazard — a hurricane, a tsunami, chemicals under pressure — into C, a catastrophic disaster. Can you give me some examples?

Hurricane Ike. Galveston, Texas, got completely wiped out in 1900. Thousands of people got killed. So the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers built a seawall on Galveston Island, and that sucker has gone through every major hurricane since 1900.

But people think that if a storm hasn’t happened since they lived there, somehow it can’t happen to them. This is where B comes in — the hubris and shortsightedness. Because a hurricane hadn’t flattened the city in decades, civic leaders decided to let people build at sea level again. And when Hurricane Ike came through in 2008, it was just like Berlin at the end of the second world war. Everything was gone.

Before Superstorm Sandy, I wrote that the subways were going to flood, but no one did anything. Mayor Bloomberg even hired some of my engineer friends from the Netherlands to come to New York City and advise him about building gates to cut off incoming hurricane surges.

But here we’re back to B — hubris and shortsightedness. People think because they’ve never seen a storm like what happened in New Jersey or they’ve never seen the tunnels flooded in New York City that it can’t happen, or that they need to think about building a levee.

Hurricane-Katrina

Disaster specialist Robert Bea studied the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, which left New Orleans flooded in 2005. NOAA

When I lived in New Orleans, we lost everything in Hurricane Betsy [in 1965]: our house, wedding photographs, marriage license, birth certificates. Yet 40 years later, after Katrina, I go back to the same place. There’s a new home built on the foundation, and the owners are dragging wet, oily mattresses out the front door.

Luckily I had no one with me that morning, but I broke down and cried. It wasn’t tears of sadness. It was tears of frustration at such a miserable, despicable mess. While we can’t prevent disaster, we can do things that are more sensible to mitigate risks, like maybe not building homes in floodplains.

But the cities are already there. Are you going to move entire cities?

In some cases, yes. We did it in the Mississippi River Valley after the 1993 floods. We actually moved entire towns to higher ground, like Valmeyer, Ill., and Rhineland, Mo., because we suddenly recognized they’d rebuilt them five times in the same damn place. Doing it six times doesn’t quite make sense. But there is not a “one size fits all” answer.

In other cases, there are intermediate solutions that can work, such as occupying only what you can defend properly and in a sustainable manner. An example is the “new New Orleans,” where parts of the city outside of the defended perimeter of the levee system can be expected to flood severely and frequently. Individuals there are building structures on higher ground and making them stronger, and preparing to take care of themselves in future storms.

But even after Superstorm Sandy’s devastation, you can’t just completely rebuild Lower Manhattan.

No, you can’t. But you can follow the example of the massive Thames Barrier that has been built in London [10 steel gates that prevent the city from being flooded by tidal surges].

But that cost over 500 million pounds — about $850 million — when it was completed in 1982. Doing the same in Manhattan would cost up to $17 billion and an additional $10 billion to $12 billion to shore up areas next to the barriers, an astonishing amount of money.

Well, do you want to fix it now or fix it later, when it will cost 100 times as much? Damages from Superstorm Sandy in New York and New Jersey are estimated at $60 billion to $70 billion. The key question I always ask is, “Can we work this problem out in a responsible way, or do we wait until it fails — in other words, will we fix it now versus pick up the pieces later?”

We looked into this “pay me now or pay me later,” and in many cases, it’s more than 100 times the cost to fix afterward. We economically documented several major accidents where the factor is bigger than 1,000, like Katrina.

People regularly ignore risks, but isn’t it the extreme scenario — the thing that has the 1 percent chance of happening, the so-called long tail at each end of the bell curve — that causes all the trouble? What about events beyond the realm of normal expectations, like Superstorm Sandy? 

Sandy is better classified as a “predictable surprise.” There were some groups in the greater New York area that had a clear understanding of the potential for significant flooding due to an intense storm. But there were other groups who had no idea and made no significant efforts to learn how vulnerable the city was to storm surges from the Atlantic.

Galveston-hurricane

A hurricane flattened Galveston, Texas, in 1900. Hurricane Ike in 2008 took out the city again. Library of Congress

What do you do when it becomes more costly to prepare for every disaster than just to take the risk? How safe is safe enough?

In many cases, you can’t prepare because no one’s willing to spend money to do this. We’ve rebuilt the levees around New Orleans, for example, but they’re right back on the same slabs. And it’s going to cost about 10 percent of the construction costs per year to maintain them.

Now where are you going to get $1.5 billion a year? So they can’t maintain it, and the next time it is challenged — and there is no doubt in my mind it will be challenged severely — it’s going to fail again, and the consequences are going to be worse because we’ve allowed more population and more infrastructure.

In aviation, which has unequaled safety records, they do predict and plan for the worst case because they can’t afford accidents. But Sully Sullenberger’s “Miracle on the Hudson,” when the pilot landed the plane on the Hudson River after flying into a flock of geese, does seem like a miracle.

It was a miracle, but it was not an accident. It was, in fact, rehearsed. That’s how the FAA was able to clear air traffic control, how he and his co-pilot, together with the flight crew, were able to get almost everything right, how the French Airbus had those backflow valves already designed in the fuselage.

We don’t normally land airplanes in water. They’re supposed to be on land, but they designed it to land in water as well, and the crew had rehearsed and planned what they would do in the event of a water landing. They are thinking about the impossible.

What warnings are going unheeded now? The antiquated levee system protecting California’s Sacramento Delta, which is the source of fresh water for 28 million of the state’s residents, comes to mind. I know you’ve been studying this.

An earthquake, a megaflood. Any of these natural disasters could rupture the delta levees and take a lot of the infrastructure — power lines, communication networks, gas pipelines, hydroelectric power systems — with it. Millions could be without power or fresh water for months. It isn’t going to be pretty, and it will knock out of commission the ninth-largest economy in the world.

And it could happen at any time.

Yeah. Tick, tick, tick.

 

Deepwater-Horizon
US Coast Guard

Bea goes back in time to explain how we might have avoided notable catastrophes of the past.

 

Deepwater Horizon, 2010

The Deepwater Horizon oil-drilling rig exploded in the Gulf of Mexico, killing 11 crewmen and igniting a fire that could not be extinguished. Two days later the rig sank, leaving the well gushing in the seabed. It ultimately leaked 210 million gallons of oil in the largest offshore spill in U.S. history.

» What was ignored? BP, the industry and federal regulators understood the potential for an uncontrolled blowout in Deepwater drilling, but they failed to heed warnings about the structural weaknesses in the cement casings that protect the well pipes. Plus, the blowout preventer hadn’t been working properly for several days.

» What would have improved the outcome? Delivering the required degree of safety consistently and ensuring that protocols were followed. Understanding that wells pumping 162,000 barrels of oil a day are under much higher pressure, and therefore are much more dangerous, than wells delivering 500 barrels a day. Building stronger protective structures to withstand these intense pressures could have prevented the disaster.

Midwest Floods, 2008

Months of rainstorms led to heavy flooding in seven Midwestern states, including Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana and Missouri, resulting in 24 deaths and more than $6 billion in damage.

» What was ignored? The lessons from floods in 1993. The increasing fragility of the aging levee system, and more people building in low-lying areas susceptible to flooding.

» What would have improved the outcome? Giving the water the room it needed to flood and not build in those areas. Building and maintaining high-quality flood protection systems in the areas that could have been protected.


Columbia Disaster, 2003 

The space shuttle disintegrated upon re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere due to missing heat shield tiles, killing all seven astronauts on board.

» What was ignored? The mantra “better, faster, cheaper” drove the management decision to “bring the bird back,” even though the U.S. Air Force had photographs showing the leading edge of the Columbia was missing heat shield tiles, which were damaged during the launch. Problems with heat shield tiles during earlier missions hadn’t been adequately addressed, and NASA ignored engineers’ requests to ground the mission until these problems were solved.

» What would have improved the outcome? Fixing heat shield tile problems uncovered during earlier missions. Develop a backup plan for fixing the shuttle in space if it is damaged and ensuring the crew’s safety. They were lucky with previous missions that had missing tiles, but they took a chance, and their luck ran out.


Exxon Valdez Crash, 1989

The Exxon Valdez oil tanker ran aground in Prince William Sound, spilling an estimated 11 million gallons of crude oil along Alaskan shores. Numerous factors complicated cleanup, including the size of the spill, the remote location and a lack of readily available equipment and effective chemical dispersants to dissolve the thick oil.

» What was ignored? The dangers of Bligh Reef, where the ship hit the rocks. Taking shortcuts to save time to get the oil to Southern California refineries. Not traveling in regulated shipping lanes.

» What would have improved the outcome? Better communication between vessel captains and traffic control centers to avoid treacherous conditions. True pollution control to improve visibility, and better preparation for cleanup.

Hello, Hal (New Yorker)

Will we ever get a computer we can really talk to?

BY 

JUNE 23, 2008

The challenge is to marry our two greatest technologies: language and toolmaking.

The challenge is to marry our two greatest technologies: language and toolmaking.

Not long ago, a caller dialled the toll-free number of an energy company to inquire about his bill. He reached an interactive-voice-response system, or I.V.R.—the automated service you get whenever you dial a utility or an airline or any other big American company. I.V.R.s are the speaking tube that connects corporate America to its clients. Companies profess boundless interest in their customers, but they don’t want to pay an employee to talk to a caller if they can avoid it; the average human-to-human call costs the company at least five dollars. Once an I.V.R. has been paid for, however, a human-to-I.V.R. call costs virtually nothing.

“If you have an emergency, press one,” the utility company’s I.V.R. said. “To use our automated services or to pay by phone, press two.”

The caller punched two, and was instructed to enter his account number, which he did. An alert had been placed on the account because of a missed payment. “Please hold,” the I.V.R. said. “Your call is being transferred to a service representative.” This statement was followed by one of the most commonly heard sentences in the English language: “Your call may be monitored.”

In fact, the call was being monitored, and I listened to it some months later, in the offices of B.B.N. Technologies, a sixty-year-old company, in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Joe Alwan, a vice-president and the general manager of the division that makes B.B.N.’s “callerexperience analytics” software, which is called Avoke, was showing me how the technology can automatically create a log of events in a call, render the speech as text, and make it searchable.

Alwan, a compact man with scrunchedtogether features who has been at B.B.N. for two years, spoke rapidly but smoothly, with a droll delivery. He projected a graphic of the voice onto a screen at one end of the room. “Anger’s the big one,” he said. Companies can use Avoke to determine when their callers are getting angry, so that they can improve their I.V.R.s.

The agent came on the line, said his name was Eric, and asked the caller to explain his problem. Eric had a slight Indian accent and spoke in a high, clear voice. He probably worked at a call center in Bangalore for a few dollars an hour, although his pay was likely based on how efficiently he could process the calls. “The company doesn’t want to spend more money on the call, because it’s a cost,” Alwan said. The caller’s voice gave the impression that he was white (particularly the way he pronounced the “u” in “duuude”) and youthful, around thirty:

CALLER: Hey, what’s going on is, ah, I got a return-payment notice, right?
AGENT: Mhm.
CALLER: And I checked with my bank, and my bank was saying, well, it didn’t even get to you . . . they didn’t reject it. So then I was just, like, what’s the issue, and then, ah, you guys charge to pay over the phone, so that’s why it’s not done over the phone, so that’s why I do it on the Internet, so—
AGENT: O.K.
CALLER: So I don’t . . . know what’s going on.

The caller sounded relaxed, but if you listened closely you could hear his voice welling with quiet anger.

The agent quickly looked up the man’s record and discovered that he had typed in his account number incorrectly. The caller accepted the agent’s explanation but thought he shouldn’t be liable for the returned-payment charge. He said, “There’s nothing that can be done with that return fee, dude?” The agent explained that another company had levied the charge, but the caller took no notice. “I mean, I would be paying it over the phone, so you guys wanna charge people for paying over the phone, and I’ll be—”

People express anger in two different ways. There’s “cold” anger, in which words may be overarticulated but spoken softly, and “hot” anger, in which voices are louder and pitched higher. At first, the caller’s anger was cold:

AGENT: O.K., sir. I’m gonna go ahead and explain this. . . . O.K., so on the information that you put this last time it was incorrect, so I apologize that you put it incorrectly on the site.
CALLER: O.K., we got past that, bro. So tell me something I don’t know. . . .
AGENT: Let’s see . . . uh . . . um.
CALLER: Dude, I don’t care what company it is. It’s your company using that company, so you guys charge it. So you guys should be waiving that shit-over-the-phone shit, pay by phone.
AGENT: But why don’t you talk to somebody else, sir. One moment.

By now, the caller’s anger was hot. He was put on hold, but B.B.N. was still listening:

CALLER: Motherfucker, I swear. You fucking pussy, you probably don’t even have me on hold, you little fucked-up dick. You’re gonna wait a long time, bro.
You little bitch, I’ll fucking find out who you are, you little fucking ho.

After thirty seconds, we could hear bubbling noises—a bong, Alwan thought—and then coughing. Not long afterward, the caller hung up.

This spring marked the fortieth anniversary of HAL, the conversational computer that was brought to life on the screen by Stanley Kubrick and Arthur C. Clarke, in “2001: A Space Odyssey.” HAL has a calm, empathic voice—a voice that is warmer than the voices of the humans in the movie, which are oddly stilted and false.HAL says that he became operational in Urbana, Illinois, in 1992, and offers to sing a song. HAL not only speaks perfectly; he seems to understand perfectly, too. I was a nine-year-old nerd in the making when the film came out, in 1968, and I’ve been waiting for a computer to talk to ever since—a fantasy shared by many computer geeks. Bill Gates has been touting speech recognition as the next big thing in computing for at least a decade. By giving computers the ability to understand speech, humankind would marry its two greatest technologies: language and toolmaking. To believers, this union can only be a matter of time.

Forty years after “2001,” how close are we to talking to computers? Today, you can use your voice to buy airplane tickets, transfer money, and get a prescription filled. If you don’t want to type, you can use one of the current crop of dictation programs to transcribe your speech; these have been improving steadily and now work reasonably well. If you are driving a car with an onboard navigator, you can get directions in one of dozens of different voices, according to your preference. In a car equipped with Sync—a collaboration of Ford, Microsoft, and Nuance, the largest speech-technology company in the world—you can use your voice to place a phone call or to control your iPod, both of which are useful when you are in what’s known in the speech-recognition industry as “hands-busy, eyes-busy” situations. State-of-the-art I.V.R.s, such as Google’s voice-based 411 service, offer natural-language understanding—you can speak almost as you would to a human operator, as opposed to having to choose from a set menu of options. I.V.R. designers create vocal personas like Julie, the perky voice that answers Amtrak’s 800 number; these voices can be “tuned” according to a company’s branding needs. Calling Virgin Mobile gets you a sassy-voiced young woman, who sounds as if she’s got her feet up on her desk.

Still, these applications of speech technology, useful though they can be, are a far cry from HAL—a conversational computer. Computers still flunk the famous Turing Test, devised by the British mathematician Alan Turing, in which a computer tries to fool a person into thinking that it’s human. And, even within limited applications, speech recognition never seems to work as well as it should. North Americans spent forty-three billion minutes on the line with an I.V.R. in 2007; according to one study, only one caller in ten was satisfied with the experience. Some companies have decided to switch back to touch-tone menus, after finding that customers prefer pushing buttons to using their voices, especially when they are inputting private information, such as account numbers. Leopard, Apple’s new operating system for the Mac, responds to voice commands, which is wonderful for people with handicaps and disabilities but extremely annoying if you have to listen to Alex, its computer-generated voice, converse with a co-worker all day.

Roger Schank was a twenty-two-year-old graduate student when “2001” was released. He came toward the end of what today appears to have been a golden era of programmer-philosophers—men like Marvin Minsky and Seymour Papert, who, in establishing the field of artificial intelligence, inspired researchers to create machines with human intelligence. Schank has spent his career trying to make computers simulate human memory and learning. When he was young, he was certain that a conversational computer would eventually be invented. Today, he’s less sure. What changed his thinking? Two things, Schank told me: “One was realizing that a lot of human speech is just chatting.” Computers proved to be very good at tasks that humans find difficult, like calculating large sums quickly and beating grand masters at chess, but they were wretched at this, one of the simplest of human activities. The other reason, as Schank explained, was that “we just didn’t know how complicated speech was until we tried to model it.” Just as sending men to the moon yielded many fundamental insights into the nature of space, so the problem of making conversational machines has taught scientists a great deal about how we hear and speak. As the Harvard cognitive scientist Steven Pinker wrote to me, “The consensus as far as I have experienced it among A.I. researchers is that natural-language processing is extraordinarily difficult, as it could involve the entirety of a person’s knowledge, which of course is extraordinarily difficult to model on a computer.” After fifty years of research, we aren’t even close.

Speech begins with a puff of breath. The diaphragm pushes air up from the lungs, and this passes between two small membranes in the upper windpipe, known as the vocal folds, which vibrate and transform the breath into sound waves. The waves strike hard surfaces inside the head—teeth, bone, the palate. By changing the shape of the mouth and the position of the tongue, the speaker makes vowels and consonants and gives timbre, tone, and color to the sound.

That process, being mechanical, is not difficult to model, and, indeed, humans had been trying to make talking machines long before A.I. existed. In the late eighteenth century, a Hungarian inventor named Wolfgang von Kempelen built a speaking machine by modelling the human vocal tract, using a bellows for lungs, a reed from a bagpipe for the vocal folds, and a keyboard to manipulate the “mouth.” By playing the keys, an operator could form complete phrases in several different languages. In the nineteenth century, Kempelen’s machine was improved on by Sir Charles Wheatstone, and that contraption, which was exhibited in London, was seen by the young Alexander Graham Bell. It inspired him to try to create his own devices, in the hope of allowing non-hearing people (Bell’s mother and his wife were deaf) to speak normally. He didn’t succeed, but his early efforts led to the invention of the telephone.

In the twentieth century, researchers created electronic talking machines. The first, called the Voder, was engineered by Bell Labs—the famed research division of A.T. & T.—and exhibited at the 1939 World’s Fair, in New York. Instead of a mechanical system made of a reed and bellows, the Voder generated sounds with electricity; as with Kempelen’s speaking machine, a human manipulated keys to produce words. The mechanical-sounding voice became a familiar attribute of movie robots in the nineteen-fifties (and, later, similar synthetic-voice effects were a staple of nineteen-seventies progressive rock). In the early sixties, Bell Labs programmed a computer to sing “Daisy, Daisy, give me your answer do.” Arthur C. Clarke, who visited the lab, heard the machine sing, and he and Kubrick subsequently used the same song in HAL’s death scene.

Hearing is more complicated to model than talking, because it involves signal processing: converting sound from waves of air into electrical impulses. The fleshy part of the ear and the ear canal capture sound waves and direct them to the eardrum, which vibrates as it is struck. These vibrations then push on the ossicles, which form a three-boned lever—that Rube Goldbergian contraption of the middle ear—that helps amplify the sound. The impulses pass into the fluid of the cochlea, which is lined with tiny hairs called cilia. They translate the impulses into electrical signals, which then travel along neural pathways to the brain. Once signals reach the brain, they are “recognized,” either by associative memories or by a rules-based system—or, as Pinker has argued, by some combination of the two.

The human ear is exquisitely sensitive; research has shown, for example, that people can distinguish between hot and cold coffee simply by hearing it poured. The ear is particularly attentive to the human voice. We can differentiate among different voices speaking together, and we can isolate voices in the midst of traffic and loud music, and we can tell the direction from which a voice is coming—all of which are difficult for computers to do. We can hear smiles at the other end of a telephone call; the ear recognizes the sound variations caused by the spreading of the lips. That’s why call-center workers are told to smile no matter what kind of abuse they’re taking.

The first attempts at speech recognition were made in the nineteen-fifties and sixties, when the A.I. pioneers tried to simulate the way the human mind apprehends language. But where do you start? Even a simple concept like “yes” might be expressed in dozens of different ways—including “yes,” “ya,” “yup,” “yeah,” “yeayuh,” “yeppers,” “yessirree,” “aye, aye,” “mmmhmm,” “uh-huh,” “sure,” “totally,” “certainly,” “indeed,” “affirmative,” “fine,” “definitely,” “you bet,” “you betcha,” “no problemo,” and “okeydoke”—and what’s the rule in that? At Nuance, whose headquarters are outside Boston, speech engineers try to anticipate all the different ways people might say yes, but they still get surprised. For example, designers found that Southerners had more trouble using the system than Northerners did, because when instructed to answer “yes” or “no” Southerners regularly added “ma’am” or “sir,” depending on the I.V.R.’s gender, and the computer wasn’t programmed to recognize that. Also, language isn’t static; the rules change. Researchers taught machines that when the pitch of a voice rises at the end of a sentence it usually means a question, only to have their work spoiled by the emergence of what linguists call “uptalk”—that Valley Girl way of making a declarative sentence sound like a question?—which is now ubiquitous across the United States.

In the seventies and eighties, many speech researchers gradually moved away from efforts to determine the rules of language and took a probabilistic approach to speech recognition. Statistical “learning algorithms”—methods of constructing models from streams of data—were the wheel on which the back of the A.I. culture was broken. As David Nahamoo, the chief technology officer for speech at I.B.M.’s Thomas J. Watson Research Center, told me, “Brute-force computing, based on probability algorithms, won out over the rule-based approach.” A speech recognizer, by learning the relative frequency with which particular words occur, both by themselves and within the context of other words, could be “trained” to make educated guesses. Such a system wouldn’t be able to understand what words mean, but, given enough data and computing power, it might work in certain, limited vocabulary situations, like medical transcription, and it might be able to perform machine translation with a high degree of accuracy.

In 1969, John Pierce, a prominent member of the staff of Bell Labs, argued in an influential letter to the Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, entitled “Whither Speech Recognition,” that there was little point in making machines that had speech recognition but no speech understanding. Regardless of the sophistication of the algorithms, the machine would still be a modern version of Kempelen’s talking head—a gimmick. But the majority of researchers felt that the narrow promise of speech recognition was better than nothing.

In 1971, the Defense Department’s Advanced Research Projects Agency made a five-year commitment to funding speech recognition. Four institutions—B.B.N., I.B.M., Stanford Research Institute, and Carnegie Mellon University—were selected as contractors, and each was given the same guidelines for developing a speech recognizer with a thousand-word vocabulary. Subsequently, additional projects were funded that might be useful to the military. One was straight out of “Star Trek”: a handheld device that could automatically translate spoken words into other languages. Another was software that could read foreign news media and render them into English.

In addition to DARPA, funding for speech recognition came from telephone companies—principally at Bell Labs—and computer companies, most notably I.B.M. The phone companies wanted voice-based automated calling, and the computer companies wanted a voice-based computer interface and automated dictation, which was a “holy grail project” (a favorite phrase of the industry). But devising a speech recognizer that worked consistently and accurately in real-world situations proved to be much harder than anyone had anticipated. It wasn’t until the early nineties that companies finally began to bring products to the consumer marketplace, but these products rarely worked as advertised. The fledgling industry went through a tumultuous period. One industry leader, Lernout & Hauspie, flamed out, in a spectacular accounting scandal.

Whether its provenance is academic or corporate, speech-recognition research is heavily dependent on the size of the data sample, or “corpus”—the sheer volume of speech you work with. The larger your corpus, the more data you can feed to the learning algorithms and the better the guesses they can make. I.B.M. collects speech not only in the lab and from broadcasts but also in the field. Andy Aaron, who works at the Watson Research Center, has spent many hours recording people driving or sitting in the front seats of cars in an effort to develop accurate speech models for automotive commands. That’s because, he told me, “when people speak in cars they don’t speak the same way they do in an office.” For example, we talk more loudly in cars, because of a phenomenon known as the Lombard effect—the speaker involuntarily raises his voice to compensate for background noise. Aaron collects speech both for recognizers and for synthesizers—computer-generated voices. “Recording for the recognizer and for the synthesizer couldn’t be more different,” he said. “In the case of the recognizer, you are teaching the system to correctly identify an unknown speech sound. So you feed it lots and lots of different samples, so that it knows all the different ways Americans might say the phoneme ‘oo.’ A synthesizer is the opposite. You audition many professional speakers and carefully choose one, because you like the sound of his voice. Then you record that speaker for dozens of hours, saying sentences that contain many diverse combinations of phonemes and common words.”

B.B.N. came to speech recognition through its origins as an acousticalengineering firm. It worked on the design of Lincoln Center’s Philharmonic Hall in the mid-sixties, and did early research in measuring noise levels at airports, which led to quieter airplane engines. In 1997, B.B.N. was bought by G.T.E., which subsequently merged with Bell Atlantic to form Verizon. In 2004, a group of B.B.N. executives and investors put together a buyout, and the company became independent again. The speech they use to train their recognizers comes from a shared bank, the Linguistic Data Consortium.

During my visit to Cambridge, I watched as a speech engine transcribed a live Al Jazeera broadcast into more or less readable English text, with only a three-minute lag time. In another demo, software captured speech from podcasts and YouTube videos and converted it into text, with impressive accuracy—a technology that promises to make video and audio as easily searchable as text. Both technologies are now available commercially, in B.B.N.’s Broadcast Monitoring System and in EveryZing, its audio-and-video search engine. I also saw B.B.N’s English-to-Iraqi Arabic translator; I had seen I.B.M.’s, known as the Multilingual Automatic Speech-to-Speech Translator, or MASTOR, the week before. Both worked amazingly well. At I.B.M., an English speaker made a comment (“We are here to provide humanitarian assistance for your town”) to an Iraqi. The machine repeated his sentence in English, to make sure it was understood. The MASTOR then translated the sentence into Arabic and said it out loud. The Iraqi answered in Arabic; the machine repeated the sentence in Arabic and then delivered it in English. The entire exchange took about five seconds, and combined state-of-the-art speech recognition, voice synthesis, and machine translation. Granted, the conversation was limited to what you might discuss at a checkpoint in Iraq. Still, for what they are, these translators are triumphs of the statistics-based approach.

What’s missing from all these programs, however, is emotional recognition. The current technology can capture neither the play of emphasis, rhythm, and intonation in spoken language (which linguists call prosody) nor the emotional experience of speaking and understanding language. Descartes favored a division between reason and emotion, and considered language to be a vehicle of the former. But speech without emotion, it turns out, isn’t really speech. Cognitively, the words should mean the same thing, regardless of their emotional content. But they don’t.

Speech recognition is a multidisciplinary field, involving linguists, psychologists, phoneticians, acousticians, computer scientists, and engineers. At speech conferences these days, emotional recognition is a hot topic. Julia Hirschberg, a professor of computer science at Columbia University, told me that at the last prosody conference she attended “it seemed like three-quarters of the presentations were on emotional recognition.” Research is focussed both on how to recognize a speaker’s emotional state and on how to make synthetic voices more emotionally expressive.

Elizabeth Shriberg, a senior researcher in the speech group at S.R.I. International (formerly Stanford Research Institute), said, “Especially when you talk about emotional speech, there is a big difference between acted speech and real speech.” Real anger, she went on, often builds over a number of utterances, and is much more variable than acted anger. For more accurate emotional recognition, Shriberg said, “we need the kind of data that you get from 911 and directory-assistance calls. But you can’t use those, for privacy reasons, and because they’re proprietary.”

At SAIL—the Speech Analysis and Interpretation Laboratory, on the campus of the University of Southern California, in Los Angeles—researchers work mostly with scripted speech, which students collect from actors in the U.S.C. film and drama programs. Shrikanth Narayanan, who runs the lab, is an electrical engineer, and the students in his emotion-research group are mainly engineers and computer scientists. One student was studying what happens when a speaker’s face and voice convey conflicting emotions. Another was researching how emotional states affect the way people move their heads when they talk. The research itself can be a grind. Students painstakingly listen to voices expressing many different kinds of emotion and tag each sample with information, such as how energetic the voice is and its “valence” (whether it is a negative or a positive emotion). Anger and elation are examples of emotions that have different valences but similar energy; humans use context, as well as facial and vocal cues, to distinguish them. Since the researchers have only the voice to work with, at least three of them are required to listen and decide what the emotion is. Students note voice quality, pacing, language, “disfluencies” (false starts, “um”s), and pitch. They make at least two different data sets, so that they can use separate ones for training the computer and for testing it.

Facial expressions are generally thought to be universal, but so far Narayanan’s lab hasn’t found that similarly universal vocal cues for emotions are as clearly established. “Emotions aren’t discrete,” Narayanan said. “They are a continuum, and it isn’t clear to any one perceiver where one emotion ends and another begins, so you end up studying not just the speaker but the perceiver.” The idea is that if you could train the computer to sense a speaker’s emotional state by the sound of his voice, you could also train it to respond in kind—the computer might slow down if it sensed that the speaker was confused, or assume a more soothing tone of voice if it sensed anger. One possible application of such technology would be video games, which could automatically adapt to a player’s level based on the stress in his voice. Narayanan also mentioned simulations—such as the computer-game-like training exercises that many companies now use to prepare workers for a job. “The program would sense from your voice if you are overconfident, or when you are feeling frustrated, and adjust accordingly,” he said. That reminded me of the moment in the novel “2001” when HAL, after discovering that the astronauts have doubts about him, decides to kill them. While struggling with one of the astronauts, Dave, for control of the ship, HAL says, “I can tell from your voice harmonics, Dave, that you’re badly upset. Why don’t you take a stress pill and get some rest?”

But, apart from call-center voice analytics, it’s hard to find many credible applications of emotional recognition, and it is possible that true emotional recognition is beyond the limits of the probabilistic approach. There are futuristic projects aimed at making emotionally responsive robots, and there are plans to use such robots in the care of children and the elderly. “But this is very long-range, obviously,” Narayanan said. In the meantime, we are going to be dealing with emotionless machines.

There is a small market for voice-based lie detectors, which are becoming a popular tool in police stations around the country. Many are made by Nemesysco, an Israeli company, using a technique called “layered voice analysis” to analyze some hundred and thirty parameters in the voice to establish the speaker’s pyschological state. The academic world is skeptical of voice-based lie detection, because Nemesysco will not release the algorithms on which its program is based; after all, they are proprietary. Layered voice analysis has failed in two independent tests. Nemesysco’s American distributor says that’s because the tests were poorly designed. (The company played Roger Clemens’s recent congressional testimony for me through its software, so that I could see for myself the Rocket’s stress levels leaping.) Nevertheless, according to the distributor more than a thousand copies of the software have been sold—at fourteen thousand five hundred dollars each—to law-enforcement agencies and, more recently, to insurance companies, which are using them in fraud detection.

One of the most fully realized applications of emotional recognition that I am aware of is the aggression-detection system developed by Sound Intelligence, which has been deployed in Rotterdam and Amsterdam, and other cities in the Netherlands. It has also been installed in the English city of Coventry, and is being tested in London and Manchester. One of the designers, Peter van Hengel, explained to me that the idea grew out of a project at the University of Groningen, which simulated the workings of the inner ear with computer models. “A colleague of mine applied the same inner-ear model to trying to recognize speech amid noise,” he said, “and found that it could be used to select the parts belonging to the speech and leave out the noise.” They founded Sound Intelligence in 2000, initially focussing on speech-noise separation for automatic speech recognition, with a sideline in the analysis of non-speech sounds. In 2003, the company was approached by the Dutch national railroad, which wanted to be able to detect several kinds of sound that might indicate trouble in stations and on trains (glass-breaking, graffiti-spraying, and aggressive voices). This project developed into an aggression-detection system based on the sound of people shouting: the machine detects the overstressing of the vocal cords, which occurs only in real aggression. (That’s one reason actors only approximate anger; the real thing can damage the voice.)

The city of Groningen has installed an aggression-detector at a busy intersection in an area full of pubs. Elevated microphones spaced thirty metres apart run along both sides of the street, joining an existing network of cameras. These connect to a computer at the police station in Groningen. If the system hears certain sound patterns that correspond with aggression, it sends an alert to the police station, where the police can assess the situation by examining closed-circuit monitors: if necessary, officers are dispatched to the scene. This is no HAL, either, but the system is promising, because it does not pretend to be more intelligent than it is.

I thought the problem with the technology would be false positives—too many loud noises that the machine mistook for aggression. But in Groningen, at least, the problem has been just the opposite. “Groningen is the safest city in Holland,” van Hengel said, ruefully. “There is virtually no crime. We don’t have enough aggression to train the system properly.” ♦

A importância da imaginação pós-capitalista (Envolverde)

Economia
27/8/2013 – 11h47

por Ronan Burtenshaw e Aubrey Robinson, do The Irish Left Review*

david harvey 250 A importância da imaginação pós capitalista

David Harvey mergulha no estudo das contradições do sistema e busca alternativas: desmercantilização, propriedade comum, renda básica permanente, gratuidades… Foto: Divulgação/ Internet

Mês que vem completam-se cinco anos que Lehman Brothers foram protagonistas do maior caso de falência de banco na história dos EUA. O colapso sinalizou o início da Grande Depressão – a crise mais substancial do capitalismo mundial desde a 2ª Guerra Mundial. Como entender os fundamentos desse sistema agora em crise? E, com o sistema em guerra contra a classe trabalhadora, sob o disfarce da “austeridade”, como imaginar um mundo depois disso?

Poucos pensadores geraram respostas mais influentes para essas perguntas que o geógrafo marxista David Harvey. Aqui, em entrevista recente, ele fala a Ronan Burtenshaw e Aubrey Robinson sobre esses problemas.

The Irish Left Review – Você está trabalhando agora num novo livro, The Seventeen Contradictions of Capitalism [As 17 contradições do capitalismo]. Por que focar essas contradições?

David Harvey – A análise do capitalismo sugere que são contradições significativas e fundamentais. Periodicamente essas contradições saem de controle e geram uma crise. Acabamos de passar por uma crise e acho importante perguntar que contradições nos levaram à crise? Como podemos analisar a crise em termos de contradições? Uma das grandes ditos de Marx foi que uma crise é sempre resultado das contradições subjacentes. Portanto, temos de lidar com elas próprias, não com os resultados delas.

TILR – Uma das contradições a que você se dedica é a que há entre o valor de uso e o valor de troca de uma mercadoria. Por que essa contradição é tão fundamental para o capitalismo e por que você usa a moradia para ilustrá-la?

DH – Temos de começar por entender que todas as mercadorias têm um valor de uso e um valor de troca. Se tenho um bife, o valor de uso é que posso comê-lo, e o valor de troca é quanto tenho de pagar para comê-lo.

A moradia é muito interessante, nesse sentido, porque se pode entender como valor de uso que ela garante abrigo, privacidade, um mundo de relações afetivas entre pessoas, uma lista enorme de coisas para as quais usamos a casa. Houve tempo em que cada um construía a própria casa e a casa não tinha valor de troca. Depois, do século 18 em diante, aparece a construção de casas para especulação – construíam-se sobrados georgianos [reinado do rei George, na Inglaterra] para serem vendidos. E as casas passaram a ser valores de troca para consumidores, como poupança. Se compro uma casa e pago a hipoteca, acabo proprietário da casa. Tenho pois um bem, um patrimônio. Assim se gera uma política curiosa – “não no meu quintal”, “não quero ter gente na porta ao lado que não se pareça comigo”. E começa a segregação nos mercados imobiliários, porque as pessoas querem proteger o valor de troca dos seus bens.

Então, há cerca de 30 anos, as pessoas começaram a usar a moradia como forma de obter ganhos de especulação. Você podia comprar uma casa e “passar adiante” – compra uma casa por £200 mil, depois de um ano consegue £250 mil por ela. Você ganha £50 mil, por que não? O valor de troca passou a ser dominante. E assim se chega ao boom especulativo. Em 2000, depois do colapso dos mercados globais de ações, o excesso de capital passou a fluir para a moradia. É um tipo interessante de mercado. Você compra uma casa, o preço da moradia sobe você diz “os preços das casas estão subindo, tenho de comprar uma casa”, mas outro compra antes de você. Gera-se uma bolha imobiliária. As pessoas ficam presas na bolha e a bolha explode. Então, de repente, muitas pessoas descobrem que já não podem usufruir do valor de uso da moradia, porque o sistema do valor de troca destruiu o valor de uso.

E surge a pergunta: é boa ideia permitir que o valor de uso da moradia, que é crucial para o povo, seja comandado por um sistema louco de valor de troca? O problema não surge só na moradia, mas em coisas como educação e atenção à saúde. Em vários desses campos, liberamos a dinâmica do valor de troca, sob a teoria de que ele garantirá o valor de uso, mas o que se vê frequentemente, é que ele faz explodir o valor de uso e as pessoas acabam sem receber boa atenção à saúde, boa educação e boa moradia. Por isso me parece tão importante prestar atenção à diferença entre valor de uso e valor de troca.

TILR – Outra contradição que você comenta envolve um processo de alternar, ao longo do tempo, entre a ênfase na oferta, na produção, e ênfase na demanda, pelo consumo, que se vê no capitalismo. Pode falar sobre como esse processo apareceu no século 20 e por que é tão importante?

DH – Uma grande questão é manter uma demanda adequada de mercado, de modo que seja possível absorver o que for que o capital esteja produzindo. Outra, é criar as condições sob as quais o capital possa produzir com lucros.

Essas condições de produção lucrativa quase sempre significam suprimir a força de trabalho. Na medida em que se reduzem salários – pagando salários cada vez menores –, as taxas de lucro sobem. Portanto, do lado da produção, quanto mais arrochados os salários, melhor. Os lucros aumentam. Mas surge o problema: quem comprará o que é produzido? Com o trabalho arrochado, onde fica o mercado? Se o arrocho é excessivo, sobrevém uma crise, porque deixa de haver demanda suficiente que absorva o produto.

A certa altura, a interpretação generalizada dizia que o problema, na crise dos anos 1930s foi falta de demanda. Houve então uma mudança na direção de investimentos conduzidos pelo Estado, para construir novas estradas, o WPA [serviços públicos, sob o New Deal] e tudo aquilo. Diziam que “revitalizaremos a economia” com demanda financiada por dívidas e, ao fazer isso, viraram-se para a teoria Keynesiana. Saiu-se dos anos 1930s com uma nova e forte capacidade para gerenciar a demanda, com o Estado muito envolvido na economia. Resultado disso, houve fortes taxas de crescimento, mas as fortes taxas de crescimento vieram acompanhadas de maior poder para os trabalhadores, com salários crescentes e sindicatos fortes.

Sindicatos fortes e altos salários significam que as taxas de lucro começam a cair. O capital entra em crise, porque não está reprimindo suficientemente os trabalhadores. E o “automático” do sistema dá o alarme. Nos anos 1970s, voltaram-se na direção de Milton Friedman e da Escola de Chicago. Passou a ser dominante na teoria econômica, e as pessoas começaram a observar a ponta da oferta – sobretudo os salários. E veio o arrocho dos salários, que começou nos anos 1970s. Ronald Reagan ataca os controladores de tráfego aéreo; Margaret Thatcher caça os mineiros; Pinochet assassina militantes da esquerda. O trabalho é atacado por todos os lados – e a taxa de lucros sobe. Quando se chega aos anos 1980s, a taxa de lucro dá um salto, porque os salários estão sendo arrochados e o capital está se dando muito bem. Mas surge o problema: a quem vender aquela coisa toda que está sendo produzida.

Nos anos 1990s tudo isso foi recoberto pela economia do endividamento. Começaram a encorajar as pessoas a tomarem empréstimos – começou uma economia de cartão de crédito e uma economia de moradia pesadamente financiada por hipotecas. Assim se mascarou o fato de que, na realidade, não havia demanda alguma. Em 2007-8, esse arranjo também desmoronou.
O capital enfrenta essa pergunta, “trabalha-se pelo lado da oferta ou pelo lado da demanda”? Minha ideia, para um mundo anticapitalista, é que é preciso unificar tudo isso. Temos de voltar ao valor de uso. De que valores de uso as pessoas precisam e como organizar a produção de tal modo que satisfaça à demanda por aqueles valores de uso?

TILR – Hoje, tudo indica que estamos em crise pelo lado da oferta. Mas a austeridade é tentativa de encontrar solução pelo lado da demanda. Como resolver isso?

DH – É preciso diferenciar entre os interesses do capitalismo como um todo e o que é interesse especificamente da classe capitalista, ou de uma parte dela. Durante essa crise, a classe capitalista deu-se muitíssimo bem. Alguns saíram queimados, mas a maior parte saiu-se extremamente bem. Segundo estudo recente, nos países da OECD a desigualdade econômica cresceu significativamente desde o início da crise, o que significa que os benefícios da crise concentraram-se nas classes mais ricas. Em outras palavras, os ricos não querem sair da crise, porque a crise lhes traz muitos lucros.
A população como um todo está sofrendo, o capitalismo como um todo não está saudável, mas a classe capitalista – sobretudo uma oligarquia que há ali – está muito bem. Há várias situações nas quais capitalistas individuais operando conforme os interesses de sua classe, podem de fato fazer coisas que agridem muito gravemente todo o sistema capitalista. Minha opinião é que, hoje, estamos vivendo uma dessas situações.

TILR – Você tem repetido várias vezes, recentemente, que uma das coisas que a esquerda deveria estar fazendo é usar nossa imaginação pós-capitalista, e começar por perguntar como, afinal, será um mundo pós-capitalista. Por que isso lhe parece tão importante? E, na sua opinião, como, afinal, será um mundo pós-capitalista?

DH – É importante, porque há muito tempo trombeteia-se nos nossos ouvidos que não há alternativa. Uma das primeiras coisas que temos de fazer é pensar a alternativa, para começar a andar na direção de criá-la.

A esquerda tornou-se tão cúmplice com o neoliberalismo, que já não se vê diferença entre os partidos políticos da esquerda e os da direita, se não em questões nacionais ou sociais. Na economia política não há grande diferença. Temos de encontrar uma economia política alternativa ao modo como funciona o capitalismo. E temos alguns princípios. Por isso as contradições são interessantes. Examina-se cada uma delas, por exemplo, a contradição entre valor de uso e valor de troca e se diz – “o mundo alternativo é mundo no qual se fornecem valores de uso”. Assim podemos nos concentrar nos valores de uso e tentar reduzir o papel dos valores de troca.

Ou, na questão monetária – claro que precisamos de dinheiro para que as mercadorias circulem. Mas o problema do dinheiro é que pessoas privadas podem apropriar-se dele. O dinheiro torna-se uma modalidade de poder pessoal e, em seguida, um desejo-fetiche. As pessoas mobilizam a vida na procura por esse dinheiro, até quem não sabe que o faz. Então, temos de mudar o sistema monetário – ou se taxam todas as mais-valias que as pessoas comecem a obter ou criamos um sistema monetário no qual a moeda se dissolve e não pode ser entesourada, como o sistema de milhagem aérea.

Mas para fazer isso, é preciso superar a dicotomia estado/propriedade privada, e propor um regime de propriedade comum. E, num dado momento, é preciso gerar uma renda básica para o povo, porque se você tem uma forma de dinheiro antipoupança é preciso dar garantia às pessoas. Você tem de dizer “você não precisa poupar para os dias de chuva, porque você sempre receberá essa renda básica, não importa o que aconteça”. É preciso dar segurança às pessoas desse modo, não por economias privadas, pessoais.

Mudando cada uma dessas coisas contraditórias chega-se a um tipo diferente de sociedade, que é muito mais racional que a que temos hoje. Hoje, o que acontece é produzimos e, em seguida, tentamos persuadir os consumidores a consumir o que foi produzido, queiram ou não e precisem ou não do que é produzido. Em vez disso, temos de descobrir quais os desejos e vontades básicas das pessoas e mobilizar o sistema de produção para produzir aquilo. Se se elimina a dinâmica do valor de troca, é possível reorganizar todo o sistema de outro modo. Pode-se imaginar a direção na qual se moverá uma alternativa socialista, se nos afastamos da forma dominante da acumulação de capital que hoje comanda tudo.

* Esse é um trecho da entrevista. A íntegra da entrevista será publicada na edição de outono de The Irish Left Review./ Tradução Vila Vudu.

** Publicado originalmente no site Irish Left Review e retirado do site Outras Palavras.

(Outra Palavras)

Language can reveal the invisible, study shows (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

Public release date: 26-Aug-2013

By Gary Lupyan, University of Wisconsin-Madison

MADISON, Wis. — It is natural to imagine that the sense of sight takes in the world as it is — simply passing on what the eyes collect from light reflected by the objects around us.

But the eyes do not work alone. What we see is a function not only of incoming visual information, but also how that information is interpreted in light of other visual experiences, and may even be influenced by language.

Words can play a powerful role in what we see, according to a study published this month by University of Wisconsin–Madison cognitive scientist and psychology professor Gary Lupyan, and Emily Ward, a Yale University graduate student, in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

“Perceptual systems do the best they can with inherently ambiguous inputs by putting them in context of what we know, what we expect,” Lupyan says. “Studies like this are helping us show that language is a powerful tool for shaping perceptual systems, acting as a top-down signal to perceptual processes. In the case of vision, what we consciously perceive seems to be deeply shaped by our knowledge and expectations.”

And those expectations can be altered with a single word.

To show how deeply words can influence perception, Lupyan and Ward used a technique called continuous flash suppression to render a series of objects invisible for a group of volunteers.

Each person was shown a picture of a familiar object — such as a chair, a pumpkin or a kangaroo — in one eye. At the same time, their other eye saw a series of flashing, “squiggly” lines.

“Essentially, it’s visual noise,” Lupyan says. “Because the noise patterns are high-contrast and constantly moving, they dominate, and the input from the other eye is suppressed.”

Immediately before looking at the combination of the flashing lines and suppressed object, the study participants heard one of three things: the word for the suppressed object (“pumpkin,” when the object was a pumpkin), the word for a different object (“kangaroo,” when the object was actually a pumpkin), or just static.

Then researchers asked the participants to indicate whether they saw something or not. When the word they heard matched the object that was being wiped out by the visual noise, the subjects were more likely to report that they did indeed see something than in cases where the wrong word or no word at all was paired with the image.

“Hearing the word for the object that was being suppressed boosted that object into their vision,” Lupyan says.

And hearing an unmatched word actually hurt study subjects’ chances of seeing an object.

“With the label, you’re expecting pumpkin-shaped things,” Lupyan says. “When you get a visual input consistent with that expectation, it boosts it into perception. When you get an incorrect label, it further suppresses that.”

Experiments have shown that continuous flash suppression interrupts sight so thoroughly that there are no signals in the brain to suggest the invisible objects are perceived, even implicitly.

“Unless they can tell us they saw it, there’s nothing to suggest the brain was taking it in at all,” Lupyan says. “If language affects performance on a test like this, it indicates that language is influencing vision at a pretty early stage. It’s getting really deep into the visual system.”

The study demonstrates a deeper connection between language and simple sensory perception than previously thought, and one that makes Lupyan wonder about the extent of language’s power. The influence of language may extend to other senses as well.

“A lot of previous work has focused on vision, and we have neglected to examine the role of knowledge and expectations on other modalities, especially smell and taste,” Lupyan says. “What I want to see is whether we can really alter threshold abilities,” he says. “Does expecting a particular taste for example, allow you to detect a substance at a lower concentration?”

If you’re drinking a glass of milk, but thinking about orange juice, he says, that may change the way you experience the milk.

“There’s no point in figuring out what some objective taste is,” Lupyan says. “What’s important is whether the milk is spoiled or not. If you expect it to be orange juice, and it tastes like orange juice, it’s fine. But if you expected it to be milk, you’d think something was wrong.”

Crowdsourcing, for the Birds (NY Times)

NY Times, August 19, 2013

By JIM ROBBINS

HELENA, Mont. — On a warm morning not long ago on the shore of a small prairie lake outside this state capital, Bob Martinka trained his spotting scope on a towering cottonwood tree heavy with blue heron nests. He counted a dozen of the tall, graceful birds and got out his smartphone, not to make a call but to type the number of birds and the species into an app that sent the information to researchers in New York.

 

Mapping Bird Species Heat maps show the northward migration of the chimney swift as modeled by the eBird network. Brighter colors indicate higher probabilities of finding the species.

Mr. Martinka, a retired state wildlife biologist and an avid bird-watcher, is part of the global ornithological network eBird. Several times a week he heads into the mountains to scan lakes, grasslands, even the local dump, and then reports his sightings to the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, a nonprofit organization based at Cornell University.

“I see rare gulls at the dump quite frequently,” Mr. Martinka said, scanning a giant mound of bird-covered trash.

Tens of thousands of birders are now what the lab calls “biological sensors,” turning their sightings into digital data by reporting where, when and how many of which species they see. Mr. Martinka’s sighting of a dozen herons is a tiny bit of information, but such bits, gathered in the millions, provide scientists with a very big picture: perhaps the first crowdsourced, real-time view of bird populations around the world.

West Kassel. A western meadowlark.

Birds are notoriously hard to count. While stationary sensors can measure things like carbon dioxide levels and highway traffic, it takes people to note the type and number of birds in an area. Until the advent of eBird, which began collecting daily global data in 2002, so-called one-day counts were the only method.

While counts like the Audubon Christmas Bird Count and the Breeding Bird Survey bring a lot of people together on one day to make bird observations across the country, and are scientifically valuable, they are different because they don’t provide year-round data.

And eBird’s daily view of bird movements has yielded a vast increase in data — and a revelation for scientists. The most informative product is what scientists call a heat map: a striking image of the bird sightings represented in various shades of orange according to their density, moving through space and time across black maps. Now, more than 300 species have a heat map of their own.

“As soon as the heat maps began to come out, everybody recognized this is a game changer in how we look at animal populations and their movement,” said John W. Fitzpatrick, director of the Cornell Lab. “Really captivating imagery teaches us more effectively.”

It was long believed, for example, that the United States had just one population of orchard orioles. Heat maps showed that the sightings were separated by a gap, meaning there are not one but two genetically distinct populations.

Moreover, the network offers a powerful way to capture data that was lost in the old days. “People for generations have been accumulating an enormous amount of information about where birds are and have been,” Dr. Fitzpatrick said. “Then it got burned when they died.”

No longer: eBird has compiled 141 million reports, or bits, and the number is increasing by 40 percent a year. In May, eBird gathered a record 5.6 million new observations from 169 countries. (Mr. Martinka’s sighting of 12 herons at once, for example, is considered one species observation, or bit.)

The system also offers incentives for birders to stay involved, with apps that enable them to keep their life lists (records of the species they have seen), compare their sightings with those of friends (and rivals), and know where to look for birds they haven’t seen before.

“When you get off the plane and turn your phone on,” Dr. Fitzpatrick said, “you can find out what has been seen near you over the last seven days and ask it to filter out the birds you haven’t seen yet, so with a quick look you can add to your life list.”

The system is not without problems. Citizen scientists may not be as precise in reporting data as experienced researchers are, like the ones in the Breeding Bird Survey. Cornell has tried to solve that problem by hiring top birders to travel around the world to train people like Mr. Martinka in methodology. And 500 volunteer experts read the submissions for accuracy, rejecting about 2 percent. Rare-bird sightings get special scrutiny.

The engine that makes eBird data usable is machine learning, or artificial intelligence — a combination of software and hardware that sorts through disparities, gaps and flaws in data collection, improving as it goes along.

“Machine learning says, ‘I know these data are sloppy, but fortunately there’s a lot of it,’ ” Dr. Fitzpatrick said. “It takes chunks of these data and sorts through to find patterns in the noise. These programs are learning as they go, testing and refining and getting better and better.”

Still, some experts question eBird’s validity. John Sauer, a wildlife biologist with the United States Geological Survey, says that bird-watchers’ reports lack scientific rigor. Rather than randomness, he said, “you get a lot of observations from where people like to go.” And he doubts that Cornell has proved the reliability of its machine learning efforts.

Still, the information has promise, he said, “and it’s played a powerful role in coordinating birders for recording observations, and encouraging bird-watching.”

And the data are being used by a wide array of researchers and conservationists.

Cagan H. Sekercioglu, a professor of ornithology at the University of Utah who has used similar bird-watching data in his native Turkey to study the effects of climate change on birds, called eBird “a phenomenal resource” and said that it was “getting young people involved in natural history, which might seem slow and old-fashioned in the age of instant online gratification.”

Data about bird populations can help scientists understand other changes in the natural world and be a marker for the health of overall biodiversity. “Birds are great indicators because they occur in all environments,” said Steve Kelling, the director of information science at the Cornell bird lab.

A decline in Eastern meadowlarks in part of New York State, for example, suggests that their habitat is shrinking — bad news for other species that depend on the same habitat. In California, eBird data is being used by some planners to decide where cities and towns should steer development.

The data is also being combined with radar and weather data by BirdCast, another Cornell bird lab project that forecasts migration patterns with the aim of protecting birds as they move through a gantlet of threats. “We can predict migration events that would be usable for the timing of wind generation facilities to be turned off at night,” Dr. Fitzpatrick said.

In California, biologists use the migration data to track waterfowl at critical times. When the birds are headed through the Central Valley, for example, they can ask rice farmers to flood their fields to create an improvised wetland habitat before the birds arrive. “The resolution is at such a level of detail they can make estimates of where species occur almost at a field-by-field level,” Mr. Kelling said.

EBird data has been used in Britain, too, combined with that of a similar program called BirdTrack, which uses radar images, weather models and even data from microphones on top of buildings to record the sounds of migrating birds at night.

And for bird-watchers, the eBird project has given their pastime a new sense of purpose. “It’s a really neat tool,” Mr. Martinka said. “If you see one bird or a thousand, it’s significant.”

Climate Panel Cites Near Certainty on Warming (N.Y.Times)

Tim Wimborne/Reuters. A new report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that the authors are now 95 percent to 100 percent confident that human activity is the primary influence on planetary warming.

By 

Published: August 19, 2013

An international panel of scientists has found with near certainty that human activity is the cause of most of the temperature increases of recent decades, and warns that sea levels could conceivably rise by more than three feet by the end of the century if emissions continue at a runaway pace.

The level of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, is up 41 percent since the Industrial Revolution. Emissions from facilities like coal-fired power plants contribute.

The scientists, whose findings are reported in a draft summary of the next big United Nations climate report, largely dismiss a recent slowdown in the pace of warming, which is often cited by climate change doubters, attributing it most likely to short-term factors.

The report emphasizes that the basic facts about future climate change are more established than ever, justifying the rise in global concern. It also reiterates that the consequences of escalating emissions are likely to be profound.

“It is extremely likely that human influence on climate caused more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010,” the draft report says. “There is high confidence that this has warmed the ocean, melted snow and ice, raised global mean sea level and changed some climate extremes in the second half of the 20th century.”

The draft comes from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a body of several hundred scientists that won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007, along with Al Gore. Its summaries, published every five or six years, are considered the definitive assessment of the risks of climate change, and they influence the actions of governments around the world. Hundreds of billions of dollars are being spent on efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions, for instance, largely on the basis of the group’s findings.

The coming report will be the fifth major assessment from the group, created in 1988. Each report has found greater certainty that the planet is warming and greater likelihood that humans are the primary cause.

The 2007 report found “unequivocal” evidence of warming, but hedged a little on responsibility, saying the chances were at least 90 percent that human activities were the cause. The language in the new draft is stronger, saying the odds are at least 95 percent that humans are the principal cause.

On sea level, which is one of the biggest single worries about climate change, the new report goes well beyond the assessment published in 2007, which largely sidestepped the question of how much the ocean could rise this century.

The new report also reiterates a core difficulty that has plagued climate science for decades: While averages for such measures as temperature can be predicted with some confidence on a global scale, the coming changes still cannot be forecast reliably on a local scale. That leaves governments and businesses fumbling in the dark as they try to plan ahead.

On another closely watched issue, the scientists retreated slightly from their 2007 position.

Regarding the question of how much the planet could warm if carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere doubled, the previous report largely ruled out any number below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. The new draft says the rise could be as low as 2.7 degrees, essentially restoring a scientific consensus that prevailed from 1979 to 2007.

But the draft says only that the low number is possible, not that it is likely. Many climate scientists see only a remote chance that the warming will be that low, with the published evidence suggesting that an increase above 5 degrees Fahrenheit is more likely if carbon dioxide doubles.

The level of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, is up 41 percent since the Industrial Revolution, and if present trends continue it could double in a matter of decades.

Warming the entire planet by 5 degrees Fahrenheit would add a stupendous amount of energy to the climate system. Scientists say the increase would be greater over land and might exceed 10 degrees at the poles.

They add that such an increase would lead to widespread melting of land ice, extreme heat waves, difficulty growing food and massive changes in plant and animal life, probably including a wave of extinctions.

The new document is not final and will not become so until an intensive, closed-door negotiating session among scientists and government leaders in Stockholm in late September. But if the past is any guide, most of the core findings of the document will survive that final review.

The document was leaked over the weekend after it was sent to a large group of people who had signed up to review it. It was first reported on in detail by the Reuters news agency, and The New York Times obtained a copy independently to verify its contents.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change does no original research, but instead periodically assesses and summarizes the published scientific literature on climate change.

The draft document “is likely to change in response to comments from governments received in recent weeks and will also be considered by governments and scientists at a four-day approval session at the end of September,” the panel’s spokesman, Jonathan Lynn, said in a statement Monday. “It is therefore premature and could be misleading to attempt to draw conclusions from it.”

After winning the Nobel Peace Prize six years ago, the group became a political target for climate doubters, who helped identify minor errors in the 2007 report. This time, the panel adopted rigorous procedures in the hope of preventing such mistakes.

Some climate doubters challenge the idea that the earth is warming at all; others concede that it is, but deny human responsibility; still others acknowledge a human role, but assert that the warming is likely to be limited and the impacts manageable. Every major scientific academy in the world has warned that global warming is a serious problem.

The panel shifted to a wider range for the potential warming, dropping the plausible low end to 2.7 degrees, after a wave of recent studies saying higher estimates were unlikely. But those studies are contested, and scientists at Stockholm are likely to debate whether to stick with that language.

Michael E. Mann, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University, said he feared the intergovernmental panel, in writing its draft, had been influenced by criticism from climate doubters, who advocate even lower numbers. “I think the I.P.C.C. on this point has once again erred on the side of understating the degree of the likely changes,” Dr. Mann said.

However, Christopher B. Field, a researcher at the Carnegie Institution for Science who serves on the panel but was not directly involved in the new draft, said the group had to reflect the full range of plausible scientific views.

“I think that the I.P.C.C. has a tradition of being very conservative,” Dr. Field said. “They really want the story to be right.”

Regarding the likely rise in sea level over the coming century, the new report lays out several possibilities. In the most optimistic, the world’s governments would prove far more successful at getting emissions under control than they have been in the recent past, helping to limit the total warming.

In that circumstance, sea level could be expected to rise as little as 10 inches by the end of the century, the report found. That is a bit more than the eight-inch increase in the 20th century, which proved manageable even though it caused severe erosion along the world’s shorelines.

At the other extreme, the report considers a chain of events in which emissions continue to increase at a swift pace. Under those conditions, sea level could be expected to rise at least 21 inches by 2100 and might increase a bit more than three feet, the draft report said.

Hundreds of millions of people live near sea level, and either figure would represent a challenge for humanity, scientists say. But a three-foot rise in particular would endanger many of the world’s great cities — among them New York; London; Shanghai; Venice; Sydney, Australia; Miami; and New Orleans.

A version of this article appears in print on August 20, 2013, on page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: Climate Panel Cites Near Certainty on Warming.

Global warming survey shows support for civil disobedience (Climate Connections)

20 August, 2013. Source: Climate Nexus

Photo: David Suzuki Foundation

Photo: David Suzuki Foundation

national survey finds that many Americans (24%) would support an organization that engaged in non-violent civil disobedience against corporate or government activities that make global warming worse.

Moreover, 13% say they would be willing to personally engage in non-violent civil disobedience for the same reason.

“Many Americans want action on climate change by government, business, and each other,” said lead researcher Anthony Leiserowitz, PhD, of Yale University. “The fact that so many Americans would support organizations engaging in civil disobedience to stop global warming  – or would be willing to do so personally – is a sign that many see climate change as a clear and present danger and are frustrated with the slow pace of action.”

Another key finding of the survey is that, in the past year, Americans were more likely to discuss global warming with family and friends (33% did so often or occasionally) than to communicate about it using social media (e.g., 7% shared something about global warming on Facebook or Twitter, 6% posted a comment online in response to a news story or blog about the topic, etc.).

“Our findings are in line with other research demonstrating that person-to-person conversations – about a wide variety of topics, not just global warming – are still the most common form of communication,” said Dr. Leiserowitz. “The notion that social media have completely ‘taken over’ most of our social interactions is incorrect. For example, we find that Americans are much more likely to talk about extreme weather face-to-face or over the phone than through social media.”

Furthermore, Americans are most likely to identify their own friends and family, such as a significant other (27%), son or daughter (21%), or close friend (17%), as the people who could motivate them to take action to reduce global warming.

“Our findings show that people are most willing to listen to those personally close to them when it comes to taking action against global warming,” said researcher Ed Maibach, PhD, of George Mason University. “In fact, if someone they ‘like and respect’ asks them to take action about global warming, a third say they would attend a public meeting about global warming or sign a pledge to vote only for political candidates that share their views about global warming, among other things.”

These findings come from a nationally representative survey – Climate Change in the American Mind – conducted by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication.

How many uncontacted tribes are left in the world? (New Scientist)

16:53 22 August 2013 by Bob Holmes

News emerged this week that an indigenous tribe in the Peruvian Amazon, the Mashco-Piro, has been trying to make contact with outsiders. In the past, the Mashco-Piro have always resisted interaction with strangers, avoiding – and sometimes killing – any they encounter. How should Western societies respond to these so-called uncontacted tribes? New Scientist looks at the issue.

How many uncontacted tribes are still left?
No one knows for sure. At a rough guess, there are probably more than 100 around the world, mostly in Amazonia and New Guinea, says Rebecca Spooner, of Survival International, a London-based organisation that advocates for the rights of indigenous peoples. Brazil’s count is likely to be the most accurate. The government there has identified 77 uncontacted tribes through aerial surveys, and by talking to more Westernised indigenous groups about their neighbours.

There are thought to be around 15 uncontacted tribes in Peru, a handful in other Amazonian countries, a few dozen in the Indonesian part of the island of New Guinea and two tribes in the Andaman Islands off the coast of India. There may also be some in Malaysia and central Africa.

Have they really had no contact with the outside world? 
Most have had a little, at least indirectly. “There’s always some contact with other isolated tribes, which have contact with other indigenous people, which in turn have contact with the outside world,” says Spooner.

Many of the Amazon tribes choose to avoid contact with outsiders because they have had unpleasant encounters in the past. The Mashco-Piro, for example, abandoned their settled gardens and fled into the forest. According to Glenn Shepard, an ethnologist at the Emilio Goeldi Museum in Belem, Brazil, this came after rubber companies massacred tribespeople at the turn of the 20th century. For this reason, some researchers refer to such tribes as “voluntarily isolated”, rather than uncontacted.

More recent incursions, especially by miners, oil workers and loggers, may have reinforced the tribes’ xenophobia. In 1995, oilfields were encroaching on the homeland of the uncontacted Huaorani people of eastern Peru. A visitingNew Scientist reporter was warned that any unclothed native should be regarded as uncontacted and, thus, very dangerous.

Are there guidelines for how best to approach such tribes?
In Peru, laws prohibit outsiders from initiating contact with isolated groups in most cases. They also provide protected areas where tribes can live in peace – but there are loopholes that allow oil and mining companies into the region. Brazil has similar laws and policies that allow contact only in life-threatening situations.

Anthropologists have an ethical obligation to do no harm to their research subjects, according to the American Anthropological Association’s Statement on Ethics. However, they are rarely the first people to make contact with indigenous groups – missionaries and resource developers almost always get there first, says Kim Hill, an anthropologist at Arizona State University who has worked with several recently contacted tribes. As a result, there is no standard practice for initial contact, he says.

Why would tribes choose to end their isolation?
Often, they feel forced out by encroaching civilisation, says Spooner. Survival International has documented some cases where settlements have been bulldozed and tribespeople harassed – or even killed. This leaves the survivors feeling like they have no option but to give up.

Others see a more benign process at work, at least some of the time. Tribes may seek contact with outsiders because they begin to trust their intentions, says Hill. “As soon as the tribes believe they might have some peaceful contact, all these groups want some outside interaction,” he says. “It’s a human trait to want to expand our contacts.” Modern medicine, metal tools and education can also exert a powerful pull.

What happens then?
Often, there is a lot of disease because the tribespeople are exposed to novel pathogens. It is not uncommon for half the population to die of respiratory illness – unless outsiders bring sustained medical care, says Hill. Also, the newly integrated tribespeople frequently end up on the lowest rung of the society they join. Still, he says, when he interviews such people years later, “I don’t find anyone, pretty much, who would want to go back to the old situation.”

Only a few countries are teaching children how to think (The Economist)

Best and brightest

Aug 17th 2013

The Smartest Kids in the World: And How They Got That Way. By Amanda Ripley. Simon and Schuster; 320 pages; $28.

BAMA Companies has been making pies and biscuits in Oklahoma since the 1920s. But the company is struggling to find Okies with the skills to fill even its most basic factory jobs. Such posts require workers to think critically, yet graduates of local schools are often unable to read or do simple maths. This is why the company recently decided to open a new factory in Poland—its first in Europe. “We hear that educated people are plentiful,” explains Paula Marshall, Bama’s boss.

Poland has made some dramatic gains in education in the past decade. Before 2000 half of the country’s rural adults had finished only primary school. Yet international rankings now put the country’s students well ahead of America’s in science and maths (the strongest predictor of future earnings), even as the country spends far less per pupil. What is Poland doing right? And what is America doing wrong? Amanda Ripley, an American journalist, seeks to answer such questions in “The Smartest Kids in the World”, her fine new book about the schools that are working around the globe.

Though America’s grim education results come in for special drubbing in this book, the country is not alone in failing to teach its children how to think critically. This, at least, is the view of Andreas Schleicher, the “educational scientist” behind what is known as the Program for International Student Assessment, or the PISA test. If most exams quantify students’ ability to memorise material, this one aims to assess their effectiveness at problem-solving. Since 2000 it has been administered to millions of teenagers in more than 40 countries, with surprising results. Pupils in Finland, Korea, Japan and Canada consistently score much higher than their peers in Germany, Britain, America and France. The usual explanations for these achievements, such as wealth, privilege and race, do not apply.

To understand what is happening in these classrooms, Ms Ripley follows three American teenagers who spend a year as foreign-exchange students in Finland, Poland and South Korea. Their wide-eyed observations make for compelling reading. In each country, the Americans are startled by how hard their new peers work and how seriously they take their studies. Maths classes tend to be more sophisticated, with lessons that show the often fascinating ways that geometry, trigonometry and calculus work together in the real world. Students forego calculators, having learned how to manipulate numbers in their heads. Classrooms tend to be understated, free of the high-tech gadgetry of their schools back home. And teachers in every subject exhibit the authority of professionals held in high regard.

Ms Ripley credits Poland’s swift turnaround to Miroslaw Handke, the former minister of education. When he entered the post in 1997, Poland’s economy was growing but Poles seemed destined for the low-skilled jobs that other Europeans did not want. So he launched an epic programme of school reforms, with a new core curriculum and standardised tests. Yet his most effective change was also his wooliest: he expected the best work from all of his pupils. He decided to keep all Polish children in the same schools until they were 16, delaying the moment when some would have entered vocational tracks. Poland’s swift rise in PISA rankings is largely the result of the high scores of these supposedly non-academic children.

This is a lesson Ms Ripley sees throughout her tour of “the smart-kid countries”. Children succeed in classrooms where they are expected to succeed. Schools work best when they operate with a clarity of mission: as places to help students master complex academic material (not as sites dedicated to excellence in sport, she hastens to add). When teachers demand rigorous work, students often rise to the occasion, whereas tracking students at different cognitive levels tends to “diminish learning and boost inequality”. Low expectations are often duly rewarded.

In Helsinki Ms Ripley visits a school in a bleak part of town, where classrooms are full of refugee immigrants.“I don’t want to think about their backgrounds too much,” says their teacher, wary of letting sympathy cloud his judgment of his students’ work. “It’s your brain that counts”. She marvels at how refreshing this view is when compared with that of teachers in America, where academic mediocrity is often blamed on backgrounds and neighbourhoods. And she laments the “perverse sort of compassion” that prevents American teachers from failing bad students, not least because this sets these youths up to fail in a worse way later on.

Not every story of academic success is a happy one. In South Korea Ms Ripley finds a “culture of educational masochism”, where pupils study at all hours in the hope of securing a precious spot in one of the country’s three prestigious universities. The country may have one of the highest school-graduation rates in the world, but children appear miserable. Even so, South Korea offers some good lessons for how quickly a country can change its fate. Largely illiterate in the 1950s, it is now an “extreme meritocracy”.

America’s classrooms do not fare well in this book. Against these examples of academic achievement, the country’s expensive mistakes look all the more foolish. For example, unlike the schools in Finland, which channel more resources to the neediest kids, America funds its schools through property taxes, ensuring the most disadvantaged students are warehoused together in the worst schools.

Ms Ripley packs a startling amount of insight in this slim book. She notes that Finland, Poland and South Korea all experienced moments of crisis—economic and existential—before they buckled down and changed their stories. America, she observes, may soon reach a similar moment. She cites the World Economic Forum’s most recent ranking of global competitiveness, which placed America seventh, marking its third consecutive year of decline. Meanwhile Finland, that small, remote Nordic country with few resources, has been steadily moving up this ladder, and now sits comfortably in third place.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this review repeated Ms Ripley’s assertion that in 2000 “only half” of Poland’s rural adults had completed primary school. In fact half of rural adults had completed no more than primary school. Sorry.

The Battle Over Global Warming Is All in Your Head (Time)

Despite the fact that more people now acknowledge that climate change represents a significant threat to human well-being, this has yet to translate into any meaningful action. Psychologists may have an answer as to why this is

By , Aug. 19, 2013

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ANDREY SMIRNOV/AFP/GETTY IMAGES. Climate campaigns, like this one from Greenpeace in Moscow, have failed to galvanize public support for strong climate action

Today the scientific community is in almost total agreement that the earth’s climate is changing as a result of human activity, and that this represents a huge threat to the planet and to us. According to a Pew survey conducted in March, however, public opinion lags behind the scientific conclusion, with only 69% of those surveyed accepting the view that the earth is warming — and only 1 in 4 Americans see global warming as a major threat. Still, 69% is a solid majority, which begs the question, Why aren’t we doing anything about it?

This political inertia in the face of unprecedented threat is the most fundamental challenge to tackling climate change. Climate scientists and campaigners have long debated how to better communicate the message to nonexperts so that climate science can be translated into action. According to Christopher Rapley, professor of climate science at University College London, the usual tactic of climate experts to provide the public with information isn’t enough because “it does not address key underlying causes.” We are all bombarded with the evidence of climate change on an almost a daily basis, from new studies and data to direct experiences of freakish weather events like last year’s epic drought in the U.S. The information is almost unavoidable.

If it’s not a data deficit that’s preventing people from doing more on global warming, what is it? Blame our brains. Renee Lertzman, an applied researcher who focuses on the psychological dimensions of sustainability, explains that the kind of systemic threat that climate change poses to humans is “unique both psychologically and socially.” We face a minefield of mental barriers and issues that prevent us from confronting the threat.

For some, the answer lies in cognitive science. Daniel Gilbert, a professor of psychology at Harvard, has written about why our inability to deal with climate change is due in part to the way our mind is wired. Gilbert describes four key reasons ranging from the fact that global warming doesn’t take a human form — making it difficult for us to think of it as an enemy — to our brains’ failure to accurately perceive gradual change as opposed to rapid shifts. Climate change has occurred slowly enough for our minds to normalize it, which is precisely what makes it a deadly threat, as Gilbert writes, “because it fails to trip the brain’s alarm, leaving us soundly asleep in a burning bed.”

Robert Gifford, a professor of psychology and environmental studies at the University of Victoria in Canada, also picks up on the point about our brains’ difficulty in grasping climate change as a threat. Gifford refers to this and other psychological barriers to mitigating climate change as “dragons of inaction.” Since authoring a paperon the subject in 2011 in which he outlined seven main barriers, or dragons, he has found many more. “We’re up to around 30,” he notes. “Now it’s time to think about how we can slay these dragons.” Gifford lists factors such as limited cognition or ignorance of the problem, ideologies or worldviews that may prevent action, social comparisons with other people and perceived inequity (the “Why should we change if X corporation or Y country won’t?”) and the perceived risks of changing our behavior.

Gifford is reluctant to pick out one barrier as being more powerful or limiting than another. “If I had to name one, I would nominate the lack of perceived behavioral control; ‘I’m only one person, what can I do?’ is certainly a big one.” For many, the first challenge will be in recognizing which dragons they have to deal with before they can overcome them. “If you don’t know what your problem is, you don’t know what the solution is,” says Gifford.

Yet this approach can only work if people are prepared to acknowledge that they have a problem. But for those of us who understand that climate change is a problem yet make little effort to cut the number of overseas trips we make or the amount of meat we consume, neither apathy nor denial really explains the dissonance between our actions and beliefs. Lertzman has come to the conclusion that this is not because of apathy — a lack of feeling — but because of the simple fact that we care an overwhelming amount about both the planet and our way of life, and we find that conflict too painful to bear. Our apparent apathy is just a defense mechanism in the face of this psychic pain.

“We’re reluctant to come to terms with the fact that what we love and enjoy and what gives us a sense of who we are is also now bound up with the most unimaginable devastation,” says Lertzman. “When we don’t process the pain of that, that’s when we get stuck and can’t move forward.” Lertzman refers to this inability to mourn as “environmental melancholia,” and points to South Africa’s postapartheid Truth and Reconciliation Commission as an example of how to effectively deal with this collective pain. “I’m not saying there should be one for climate or carbon, but there’s a lot to be said for providing a means for people to talk together about climate change, to make it socially acceptable to talk about it.”

Rosemary Randall, a trained psychotherapist, has organized something close to this. She runs the U.K.-based Carbon Conversations, a program that brings people together to talk in a group setting about ways of halving their personal carbon footprint. Writing in Aeon, an online magazine, Randall suggests that climate change is such a disturbing subject, that “like death, it can raise fears and anxieties that people feel have no place in polite conversation.” Randall acknowledges that while psychology and psychoanalysis aren’t the sole solutions to tackling climate change, “they do offer an important way of thinking about the problem.”

Lertzman says the mainstream climate-change community has been slow to register the value of psychology and social analysis in addressing global warming. “I think there’s a spark of some interest, but also a wariness of what this means, what it might look like,” she notes. Gifford says otherwise, however, explaining that he has never collaborated with other disciplines as much as he does now. “I may be a little biased because I’m invested in working in it, but in my view, climate change, and not mental health, is the biggest psychological problem we face today because it affects 100% of the global population.”

Despite the pain, shame, difficulty and minefield of other psychological barriers that we face in fully addressing climate change, both Lertzman and Gifford are still upbeat about our ability to face up to the challenge. “It’s patronizing to say that climate change is too big or abstract an issue for people to deal with,” says Lertzman. “There can’t be something about the human mind that stops us grappling with these issues given that so many people already are — maybe that’s what we should be focusing on instead.”

Read more: http://science.time.com/2013/08/19/in-denial-about-the-climate-the-psychological-battle-over-global-warming/#ixzz2chLdZ25H

Black Bloc: “Fazemos o que os outros não têm coragem de fazer” (Revista Fórum)

Eles afirmam não temer o confronto com a polícia e defendem a destruição de “alvos capitalistas”. Conheça a história e a forma de luta que se popularizou com o movimento antiglobalização e ganha destaque no Brasil

Esta matéria faz parte da edição 125 da revista Fórum.

Por Paulo Cezar Monteiro

20/08/2013 7:20 pm

“Os ativistas Black Bloc não são manifestantes, eles não estão lá para protestar. Eles estão lá para promover uma intervenção direta contra os mecanismos de opressão, suas ações são concebidas para causar danos às instituições opressivas.” É dessa forma que a estratégia de ação do grupo que vem ganhando notoriedade devido às manifestações no País é definida por um vídeo, divulgado pela página do Facebook “Black Bloc Brasil”, que explica parte das motivações e forma de pensar dos seus adeptos.

A ação, ou estratégia de luta, pode ser reconhecida em grupos de pessoas vestidas de preto, com máscaras ou faixas cobrindo os rostos. Durante os protestos, eles andam sempre juntos e, usualmente, atacam de maneira agressiva bancos, grandes corporações ou qualquer outro símbolo das instituições Eles afirmam não temer o confronto com a polícia e defendem a destruição de “alvos capitalistas”. Conheça a história e a forma de luta que se popularizou com o movimento antiglobalização e ganha destaque no Brasil “capitalistas e opressoras”, além de, caso julguem necessário, resistirem ou contra-atacarem intervenções policiais.

Devido ao atual ciclo de protestos de rua, o Black Bloc entrou no centro do debate político nacional. Parte das análises e opiniões classifica as suas ações como “vandalismo” ou “violência gratuita”, e também são recorrentes as críticas ao anonimato produzido pelas máscaras ou panos cobrindo a face dos adeptos. Mas o Black Bloc não é uma organização ou entidade. Leo Vinicius, autor do livro Urgência das ruas – Black Bloc, Reclaim the Streets e os Dias de Ação Global, da Conrad, (sob o pseudônimo Ned Ludd), a define o como uma forma de agir, orientada por procedimentos e táticas, que podem ser usados para defesa ou ataque em uma manifestação pública.

(Flickr.com/nofutureface)

Zuleide Silva (nome fictício), anarquista e adepta do Black Bloc no Ceará, frisa que eles têm como alvo as “instituições corporativas” e tentam defender os manifestantes fora do alcance das ações repressoras da polícia. “Fazemos o que os manifestantes não têm coragem de fazer. Botamos nossa cara a tapa por todo mundo”, afirma.

O jornalista e estudioso de movimentos anarquistas, Jairo Costa, no artigo “A tática Black Bloc”, publicado na Revista Mortal, lembra que o Black Bloc surgiu na Alemanha, na década de 1980, como uma forma utilizada por autonomistas e anarquistas para defenderem os squats (ocupações) e as universidades de ações da polícia e ataques de grupos nazistas e fascistas. “O Black Bloc foi resultado da busca emergencial por novas táticas de combate urbano contra as forças policiais e grupos nazifascistas. Diferentemente do que muitos pensam, o Black Bloc não é um tipo de organização anarquista, ONG libertária ou coisa parecida, é uma ação de guerrilha urbana”, contextualiza Costa.

De acordo com um dos “documentos informativos” disponíveis na página do Facebook, alguns dos elementos que os caracterizam são a horizontalidade interna, a ausência de lideranças, a autonomia para decidir onde e como agir, além da solidariedade entre os integrantes. Atualmente, há registros, por exemplo, de forças de ação Black Bloc nas recentes manifestações e levantes populares no Egito.

Manifestantes se reúnem em rua do Leblon, no Rio de Janeiro, próximos à casa do governador Sérgio Cabral (Foto: Mídia Ninja)

Black Bloc no Brasil

Para Leo Vinicius, é um “pouco surpreendente” que essa estratégia de manifestação urbana, bastante difundida ao redor do mundo, tenha demorado a chegar por aqui. “Essa forma de agir em protestos e manifestações ganhou muito destaque dentro dos movimentos antiglobalização, na virada da década de 1990 para 2000. Não é uma forma de ação política realmente nova”. No Brasil, existem páginas do movimento de quase todas as capitais e grandes cidades, a maior parte delas criadas durante o período de proliferação dos protestos. A maior é a Black Bloc Brasil, com quase 35 mil seguidores, seguida pela Black Bloc–RJ, com quase 20 mil membros.

A respeito da relação com o anarquismo, Vinicius faz uma ressalva. É preciso deixar claro que a noção de que “toda ação Black Bloc é feita por anarquistas e que todos anarquistas fazem Black Bloc” é falsa. “A história do Black Bloc tem uma ligação com o anarquismo, mas outras correntes como os autonomistas, comunistas e mesmo independentes também participavam. Nunca foi algo exclusivo do anarquismo. Na prática, o Black Bloc, por se tratar de uma estratégia de operação, pode ser utilizado até por movimentos da direita”, explica o escritor.

Para alguns ativistas, o processo de aceitação das manifestações de rua, feito pela grande mídia e por parte do público, de certa forma impôs que, para serem considerados legítimos, os protestos deveriam seguir um padrão: pacífico, organizado, com cartazes e faixas bem feitas e em perfeito acordo com as leis. Vinicius demonstra certa preocupação com a possibilidade do fortalecimento da ideia de que essa forma “pacífica” seja vista como o único meio possível ou legítimo de protestar. Ele afirma que não entende como violenta a ação Black Bloc de quebrar uma vidraça ou se defender de uma ação policial excessiva. “A violência é um conceito bastante subjetivo. Por isso, não dá pra taxar qualquer ato como violento, é preciso contextualizá-lo, entender as motivações por trás de cada gesto”, avalia.

Para ele, a eficácia de uma manifestação está em saber articular bem formas de ação “pacíficas” e “não pacíficas”. Foi esse equilíbrio, analisa, que fez com que o Movimento Passe Livre – São Paulo (MPL-SP) barrasse o aumento da tarifa na capital paulista. “Só com faixas e cartazes a tarifa não teria caído”, atesta. “Quem tem o poder político nas mãos só cede a uma reivindicação pelo medo, por sentir que as coisas podem sair da rotina, de que ele pode perder o controle do Estado”, sentencia.

Por outro lado, Vinicius alerta que é preciso perceber os limites para evitar que as ações mais “radicais” façam com que o movimento seja criminalizado ou se isole da sociedade e, com isso, perca o potencial de realizar qualquer mudança. Em sua obra, faz a seguinte definição daqueles que adotam a estratégia Black Bloc: “Eles praticam uma desobediência civil ativa e ação direta, afastando assim a política do teatro virtual perfeitamente doméstico, dentro do qual [a manifestação política tradicional] permanece encerrada. Os BB não se contentam com simples desfiles contestatórios, certamente importantes pela sua carga simbólica, mas incapazes de verdadeiramente sacudir a ordem das coisas”, aponta.

Outra crítica recorrente é o fato de os BB usarem máscaras ou panos para cobrirem os rostos. Os adeptos da ação explicam que as máscaras são um meio de proteger suas identidades para “evitar a perseguição policial” e outras formas de criminalização, como também criar um “sentimento de unidade” e impedir o surgimento de um “líder carismático”.

Luta antiglobalização

Com o passar do tempo, segundo Jairo Costa, as táticas Black Bloc passaram a ser reconhecidas como um meio de expressar a ira anticapitalista. Ele explica que geralmente as ações são planejadas para acontecer durante grandes manifestações de movimentos de esquerda.

O estudioso destaca como um dos momentos mais significativos da história Black Bloc a chamada “Batalha de Seattle”, em 1999, contra uma rodada de negociações da Organização Mundial do Comércio (OMC). Em 30 de novembro daquele ano, após uma tarde de confrontos com as forças policiais, uma frente móvel de black blockers conseguiu quebrar o isolamento criado entre os manifestantes e o centro comercial da cidade. Após vencer o cerco policial, os manifestantes promoveram a destruição de várias propriedades, limusines e viaturas policiais, e fizeram várias pichações com a mensagem “Zona Autônoma Temporária”. Estimativas apontam prejuízos de 10 milhões de dólares, além de centenas de feridos e 68 prisões.

Para Costa, um dos episódios mais impactantes – e duros – da história Black Bloc foi o assassinato de Carlo Giuliani, jovem anarquista de 23 anos, durante a realização simultânea do Fórum Social de Gênova e a reunião do G8 (Grupo dos oito países mais ricos), na Itália, em julho de 2001. Ele lembra que, após vários confrontos violentos – alguns deles vencidos pelos manifestantes, que chegaram a provocar a fuga dos policiais, que deixaram carros blindados para trás –, ocorreu o episódio que levou à morte de Giuliani.
“Ele partiu para cima de um carro de polícia tentando atirar nele um extintor de incêndio. Muitos fotógrafos estavam por lá e seus registros falam por si. Ao se aproximar do carro, Giuliani é atingido por dois tiros, um na cabeça. E, numa cena macabra, o carro da polícia dá marcha a ré e atropela-o várias vezes”, narra. Os assassinos de Carlo Giuliani não foram condenados. Dois anos após o fato, a Justiça italiana considerou que a ação policial se deu como “reação legítima” ao comportamento do militante.

Alvos capitalistas

Entre as formas de ação direta do Black Bloc destacam-se os ataques aos chamados “alvos simbólicos do capital”, que incluem joalherias, lanchonetes norte-americanas ou ainda a depredação de instituições oficiais e empresas multinacionais. Costa explica que essas ações “não têm como objetivo atingir pessoas, mas bens de capital”.

Zuleide justifica a destruição praticada contra multinacionais ou outros símbolos capitalistas, porque elas seriam mecanismo de “exploração e exclusão das pessoas”. “Queremos que esses meios que oprimem e desrespeitam um ser humano se explodam, vão embora, morram. Trabalhar dez horas por dia para não ganhar nada, isso é o que nos enfurece. Por isso, nossas ações diretas a eles, porque queremos causar prejuízos, para que percebam que há pessoas que rejeitam aquilo e que lutam pela população”, explica.

Ela reconhece que essas ações diretas podem deixá-los “mal vistos” na sociedade, já que há pessoas que pensam: “Droga, não vou poder mais comer no ***** porque destruíram tudo”. Porém, Zuleide afirma que o trabalhador, explorado por essas corporações, “adoraria fazer o que nós fazemos”, mas, por ter família para sustentar e contas a pagar, não faz. “Esse é mais um dos motivos que nos fazem do jeito que somos”, pontua.

Vinicius explica que, nas “ações diretas”, os black blockers atacam bens particulares por considerarem que “a propriedade privada – principalmente a propriedade privada corporativa – é em si própria muito mais violenta do que qualquer ação que possa ser tomada contra ela”. Quebrar vitrines de lojas, por exemplo, teria como função destruir “feitiços” criados pela ideologia capitalista. Esses “feitiços” seriam meios de “embalar o esquecimento” de todas as violências cometidas “em nome do direito de propriedade privada” e de “todo o potencial de uma sociedade sem ela [as vitrines]”.

Sem violência?

Em praticamente todas as manifestações, independentemente das causas e dos organizadores, tornou-se comum o grito: “Sem violência! Sem violência!”, que tinha como destinatários os policiais que, teoricamente, entenderiam o caráter “pacifista” do ato. Também seria uma tentativa de coibir a ação de “vândalos” ou “baderneiros”, que perceberiam não contar com o apoio do restante da massa.

Zuleide reconhece que, inicialmente, a ação Black Bloc era alvo desses gritos, mas, segundo ela, quando as pessoas entendem a forma como eles atuam, isso muda. “Os manifestantes perceberam que o Estado não iria nos deixar falar, nos deixar reivindicar algo, e começaram a nos reprimir. Quando há confronto [com a polícia], nós os ajudamos retardando a movimentação policial ou tirando eles de situações que ofereçam perigo, e alguns perceberam isso”, afirma.

Apesar de os confrontos com policiais não serem uma novidade durante as suas ações, os adeptos afirmam não ter como objetivo atacar policiais. Contudo, outro documento intitulado “Manifesto Black Bloc” deixa claro que, caso a polícia assuma um caráter “opressor ou repressor”, ela se torna, automaticamente, uma “inimiga”.

No “Manual de Ação Direta – Black Bloc”, também disponível na internet, a desobediência civil é definida como “a não aceitação” de uma regra, lei ou decisão imposta, “que não faça sentido e para não se curvar a quem a impõe. É este o princípio da desobediência civil, violenta ou não”. Entre as possibilidades de desobediência civil são citadas, por exemplo, a não aceitação da proibição da polícia que a manifestação siga por determinado caminho, a resistência à captura de algum manifestante ou, ainda, a tentativa de resgatar alguém detido pelos policiais.

Também são ensinadas táticas para resistir a gás lacrimogêneo, sprays de pimenta e outras formas de ação policial, além de dicas de primeiros socorros e direitos legais dos manifestantes. De acordo com o documento, as orientações desse manual tratam apenas da desobediência civil “não violenta”.

Outra orientação é que seja definido, antes da manifestação, se a desobediência civil será “violenta” ou “não violenta”. Caso se opte pela ação ‘não violenta’, essa decisão deve ser respeitada por todos, visto que não cumprir o combinado pode pôr “em risco” outros companheiros, além de ser um sinal de “desrespeito”.

Contudo, o mesmo manual deixa claro que o que “eles fazem conosco” todos os dias é uma violência, sendo assim, “a desobediência violenta é uma reação a isso e, portanto, não é gratuita, como eles tentam fazer parecer”.

Uma breve história

1980: O termo Black Bloc (Schwarzer Block) é usado pela primeira vez pela polícia alemã, como
forma de identificar grupos de esquerda na época denominados “autônomos, ou autonomistas”, que lutavam contra a repressão policial aos squats (ocupações).

1986: Fundada, em Hamburgo (Alemanha), a liga autonomista Black Bloc 1500, para defender o Hafenstrasse Squat.

1987: Anarquistas vestidos com roupas pretas protestam em Berlim Ocidental, por ocasião da presença de Ronald Reagan, então presidente dos EUA, na cidade.

1988: Em Berlim Ocidental, o Black Bloc confronta-se com a polícia durante uma manifestação
contra a reunião do Banco Mundial e o Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI).

1992: Em São Francisco (EUA), na ocasião do 500º aniversário da descoberta da América por Cristóvão Colombo, o Black Bloc manifesta-se contra o genocídio de povos nativos das Américas.

1999: Seattle contra a Organização Mundial do Comércio (OMC). Estima-se em 500 o número de integrantes do Black Bloc que destruíram o centro econômico da cidade.

2000: Em Washington, durante reunião do FMI e Banco Mundial, cerca de mil black blockers anticapitalistas saíram às ruas e enfrentaram a polícia.

2000: Em Praga (República Tcheca), forma-se um dos maiores Black Blocs que se tem notícia, durante a reunião do FMI. Cerca de 3 mil anarquistas lutam contra a polícia tcheca.

2001: Quebec (Canadá). Membros do Black Bloc
são acusados de agredir um policial durante uma marcha pela paz nas ruas de Quebec. Após esse evento, a população local e vários manifestantes de esquerda distanciaram-se da tática Black Bloc e de seus métodos extremos.

2001: A cidade de Gênova (Itália), ao mesmo tempo, recebeu a cúpula do G8 e realizou o Fórum Social de Gênova, com um grande número de Black blockers, além de aproximadamente de 200 mil ativistas. A ação ficou marcada pela violenta morte do jovem Carlo Giuliani, de 23 anos.

2007: Em Heiligendamm (Alemanha), reunião do G8 foi alvo de uma ação com a participação de cerca de 5 mil blackblockers . Mobilização Black Bloc de cerca de 5.000 pessoas

2010: Toronto (Canadá), na reunião do G20. Neste confronto, mais de 500 manifestantes foram presos e dezenas de outros ativistas foram parar em hospitais com inúmeras fraturas.

2013: Cairo (Egito). O Black Bloc aparece com forte atuação nos protestos da Praça Tahir, no combate e resistência ao exército do então presidente Hosni Mubarak.

Fonte: Artigo “A Tática Black Bloc”, escrito por Jairo Costa, na Revista Mortal, 2010

LSD and Other Psychedelics Not Linked With Mental Health Problems (Science Daily)

Aug. 19, 2013 — The use of LSD, magic mushrooms, or peyote does not increase a person’s risk of developing mental health problems, according to an analysis of information from more than 130,000 randomly chosen people, including 22,000 people who had used psychedelics at least once.

Researchers found no link between the use of psychedelic drugs and a range of mental health problems. Instead they found some significant associations between the use of psychedelic drugs and fewer mental health problems. (Credit: © Zerbor / Fotolia)

Researcher Teri Krebs and clinical psychologist Pål-Ørjan Johansen, from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology’s (NTNU) Department of Neuroscience, used data from a US national health survey to see what association there was, if any, between psychedelic drug use and mental health problems.

The authors found no link between the use of psychedelic drugs and a range of mental health problems. Instead they found some significant associations between the use of psychedelic drugs and fewer mental health problems.

The results are published in the journal PLOS ONE and are freely available online after 19 August.

Symptoms and mental health treatment considered

The researchers relied on data from the 2001-2004 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, in which participants were asked about mental health treatment and symptoms of a variety of mental health conditions over the past year. The specific symptoms examined were general psychological distress, anxiety disorders, mood disorders, and psychosis.

Armed with this information, Krebs and Johansen were able to examine if there were any associations between psychedelic use and general or specific mental health problems. They found none.

“After adjusting for other risk factors, lifetime use of LSD, psilocybin, mescaline or peyote, or past year use of LSD was not associated with a higher rate of mental health problems or receiving mental health treatment,” says Johansen.

Could psychedelics be healthy for you?

The researchers found that lifetime use of psilocybin or mescaline and past year use of LSD were associated with lower rates of serious psychological distress. Lifetime use of LSD was also significantly associated with a lower rate of outpatient mental health treatment and psychiatric medicine prescription.

The design of the study makes it impossible to determine exactly why the researchers found what they found.

“We cannot exclude the possibility that use of psychedelics might have a negative effect on mental health for some individuals or groups, perhaps counterbalanced at a population level by a positive effect on mental health in others,” they wrote.

Nevertheless, “recent clinical trials have also failed to find any evidence of any lasting harmful effects of psychedelics,” the researchers said, which supports the robustness of the PLOS ONE findings.

In fact, says Krebs, “many people report deeply meaningful experiences and lasting beneficial effects from using psychedelics.”

“Other studies have found no evidence of health or social problems among people who had used psychedelics hundreds of times in legally-protected religious ceremonies,” adds Johansen.

What’s the bottom line on psychedelic use?

Psychedelics are different than most other recreational drugs. Experts agree that psychedelics do not cause addiction or compulsive use, and they are not known to harm the brain.

When evaluating psychedelics, as with any activity, it is important to take an objective view of all the evidence and avoid being biased by anecdotal stories either of harm or benefit, the researchers say.

“Everything has some potential for negative effects, but psychedelic use is overall considered to pose a very low risk to the individual and to society,” Johansen says, “Psychedelics can elicit temporary feelings of anxiety and confusion, but accidents leading to serious injury are extremely rare.”

“Early speculation that psychedelics might lead to mental health problems was based on a small number of case reports and did not take into account either the widespread use of psychedelics or the not infrequent rate of mental health problems in the general population,” Krebs explains.

“Over the past 50 years tens of millions of people have used psychedelics and there just is not much evidence of long-term problems,” she concludes.

Both researchers were supported by the Research Council of Norway.

Journal Reference:

  1. Teri S. Krebs, Pål-Ørjan Johansen. Psychedelics and Mental Health: A Population StudyPLoS ONE, 2013; 8 (8): e63972 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0063972

World’s oldest temple built to worship the dog star (New Scientist)

16 August 2013 by Anil Ananthaswamy
Magazine issue 2930

THE world’s oldest temple, Göbekli Tepe in southern Turkey, may have been built to worship the dog star, Sirius.

The original star sign? <i>(Image: Vincent J. Musi/ National Geographic Stock)</i>

The original star sign? (Image: Vincent J. Musi/ National Geographic Stock)

The 11,000-year-old site consists of a series of at least 20 circular enclosures, although only a few have been uncovered since excavations began in the mid-1990s. Each one is surrounded by a ring of huge, T-shaped stone pillars, some of which are decorated with carvings of fierce animals. Two more megaliths stand parallel to each other at the centre of each ring (see illustration).

Göbekli Tepe put a dent in the idea of the Neolithic revolution, which said that the invention of agriculture spurred humans to build settlements and develop civilisation, art and religion. There is no evidence of agriculture near the temple, hinting that religion came first in this instance.

“We have a lot of contemporaneous sites which are settlements of hunter-gatherers. Göbekli Tepe was a sanctuary site for people living in these settlements,” says Klaus Schmidt, chief archaeologist for the project at the German Archaeological Institute (DAI) in Berlin.

But it is still anybody’s guess what type of religion the temple served. Giulio Magli, an archaeoastronomer at the Polytechnic University of Milan in Italy, looked to the night sky for an answer. After all, the arrangement of the pillars at Stonehenge in the UK suggests it could have been built as an astronomical observatory, maybe even to worship the moon.

Magli simulated what the sky would have looked like from Turkey when Göbekli Tepe was built. Over millennia, the positions of the stars change due to Earth wobbling as it spins on its axis. Stars that are near the horizon will rise and set at different points, and they can even disappear completely, only to reappear thousands of years later.

Today, Sirius can be seen almost worldwide as the brightest star in the sky – excluding the sun – and the fourth brightest night-sky object after the moon, Venus and Jupiter. Sirius is so noticeable that its rising and setting was used as the basis for the ancient Egyptian calendar, says Magli. At the latitude of Göbekli Tepe, Sirius would have been below the horizon until around 9300 BC, when it would have suddenly popped into view.

“I propose that the temple was built to follow the ‘birth’ of this star,” says Magli. “You can imagine that the appearance of a new object in the sky could even have triggered a new religion.”

Using existing maps of Göbekli Tepe and satellite images of the region, Magli drew an imaginary line running between and parallel to the two megaliths inside each enclosure. Three of the excavated rings seem to be aligned with the points on the horizon where Sirius would have risen in 9100 BC, 8750 BC and 8300 BC, respectively (arxiv.org/abs/1307.8397).

The results are preliminary, Magli stresses. More accurate calculations will need a full survey using instruments such as a theodolite, a device for measuring horizontal and vertical angles. Also, the sequence in which the structures were built is unclear, so it is hard to say if rings were built to follow Sirius as it rose at different points along the horizon.

Ongoing excavations might rule out any astronomical significance, says Jens Notroff, also at DAI. “We are still discussing whether the monumental enclosures at Göbekli Tepe were open or roofed,” he says. “In the latter case, any activity regarding monitoring the sky would, of course, have been rather difficult.”

This article appeared in print under the headline “Stone Age temple tracked the dog star”

The Emergence of Multispecies Ethnography (Cultural Anthropology)

Abstract

June 14, 2010

A Special Issue of Cultural Anthropology

Edited by Eben Kirksey and Stefan Helmreich

In the November 2010 issue of Cultural Anthropology, Eben Kirksey and Stefan Helmreich explore how creatures previously appearing on the margins of anthropology — as part of the landscape, as food for humans, as symbols — have been pressed into the foreground in recent ethnographies.  Multispecies ethnographers are studying the host of organisms whose lives and deaths are linked to human social worlds. A project allied with Eduardo Kohn’s “anthropology of life”—“an anthropology that is not just confined to the human but is concerned with the effects of our entanglements with other kinds of living selves” (2007:4)—multispecies ethnography centers on how a multitude of organisms’ livelihoods shape and are shaped by political, economic, and cultural forces.

“Becomings”—new kinds of relations emerging from nonhierarchical alliances, symbiotic attachments, and the mingling of creative agents (cf. Deleuze and Guattari 1987:241–242)—abound in this chronicle of the emergence of multispecies ethnography, and in the essays in this collection.“The idea of becoming transforms types into events, objects into actions,” writes contributor Celia Lowe.

The work of Donna Haraway also provides one key starting point for the “species turn” in anthropology: “If we appreciate the foolishness of human exceptionalism,” she writes in When Species Meet, “then we know that becoming is always becoming with—in a contact zone where the outcome, where who is in the world, is at stake” (2008:244).

Anna Tsing’s scholarship also provides a charter for multispecies ethnographers.  In an forthcoming essay, “Unruly Edges: Mushrooms as Companion Species”, she suggests that “human nature is an interspecies relationship” (Tsing n.d.; see Haraway 2008:19).  Displacing studies of animal behavior used by social conservatives and sociobiologists to naturalize autocratic and militaristic ideologies, Tsing began studying mushrooms to imagine a human nature that shifted historically along with varied webs of interspecies dependence. Searching familiar places in the parklands of northern California for mushrooms—looking for the orange folds of chanterelles or the warm muffins of king boletes—she discovered a world of mutually flourishing companions. Aspiring to mimic the “mycorrhizal sociality” of mushrooms, Tsing formed the Matsutake Worlds Research Group—an ethnographic research team centered on matsutake, an aromatic gourmet mushroom in the genus Tricholoma, a “species cluster.” Following the matsutake mushroom through commodity chains in Europe, North America, and East Asia, this group has experimented with new modes of collaborative ethnographic research while studying scale-making and multispecies relations.

Multispecies ethnography has emerged with the activity of a swarm, a network with no center to dictate order, populated by “a multitude of different creative agents” (Hardt and Negri 2005:92). The Multispecies Salon — a series of panels, round tables, and events in art galleries held at the annual meetings of the American Anthropological Association (in 2006 and 2008) — was one place, among many others, where this swarm alighted. In November the Multispecies Salon will travel to New Orleans.  Here, at the 2010 AAA meetings, a lively group of interlocutors—wild artists and para-ethnographers—will come together to discuss the multispecies zeitgeist that is sweeping the social sciences and the humanities.

 

Inline_img_0243
Eben Kirksey, “Untitled.” April 6, 2010.

 

The “Twins,” a chimerical pair of grubs with wings, graces the cover of the November 2010 issue of Cultural Anthropology. This ceramic piece was created by Marnia Johnston, who joined Eben Kirksey in curating the Multispecies Salon.  Only adult insects have wings. Their juvenile forms, larvae, do not. “Humans are acquiring adult characteristics, such as breasts, at an early age,” Johnston told us. “Endocrine disrupting chemicals, like Bovine Growth Hormone,” she continued, “are working on the bodies of humans and multiple other species. I want people to think about how our chemical dependencies change us and the world we live in.”

Questions for Classroom Discussion

1. What were the Science Wars?  What distinguishes emerging conversations about nature and culture in anthropology from this earlier historical moment?

2. What does anthropos mean?  As the facts of life are being remade by the biosciences, what is anthropos becoming?

3. In the Anthropocene, a new epoch in Earth’s history, are there elements of nature that exist outside of culture?

About the Authors

Eben Kirksey is a cultural anthropologist at the CUNY Graduate Center who studies the political dimensions of imagination as well as the interplay of natural and cultural history.  As a graduate student at the University of Oxford, and UC Santa Cruz, he published four articles in peer-reviewed journals and two chapters in edited books on these themes.  His doctoral dissertation and first book, “Freedom in Entangled Worlds”, is about an indigenous political movement in West Papua, the half of New Guinea under Indonesian control (forthcoming 2011).  As a National Science Foundation Postdoctoral Fellow (2008-2010), he conducted an ethnography of place at multiple biological research stations in Latin America.  Following the movement of people and organisms—across national borders and through a fragmented landscape—he studied oblique powers at play in global assemblages.

Stefan Helmreich has worked as a Postdoctoral Associate in Science and Technology Studies at Cornell University, an External Faculty Fellow at the Center for the Critical Analysis of Contemporary Culture at Rutgers University, and as Assistant Professor of Science and Society at New York University. The National Science Foundation and the Wenner-Gren Foundation have funded his research. Helmreich’s research examines the works and lives of contemporary biologists puzzling through the conceptual boundaries of “life” as a category of analysis. He has written extensively on Artificial Life, most notably in Silicon Second Nature: Culturing Artificial Life in a Digital World (University of California Press, 1998), which in 2001 won the Diana Forsythe Book Prize from the American Anthropological Association. His latest book, Alien Ocean: Anthropological Voyages in Microbial Seas (University of California Press, 2009), is a study of marine biologists working in realms usually out of sight and reach: the microscopic world, the deep sea, and oceans outside national sovereignty.

The Multispecies Salon 3: SWARM

An Innovent panel at the AAA Meeting in New Orleans

Get Involved: CFP

Call for Papers: from Deborah Bird Rose and Thom van Dooren

Editors’ Footnotes

Cultural Anthropology has published a number of essay that map new directions in anthropology, including George Marcus’s “The End(s) of Ethnography: Social/Cultural Anthropology’s Signature Form of Producing Knowledge in Transition” (2008); Michael M. J. Fischer’s “Four Genealogies for a Recombinant Anthropology of Science and Technology” (2007); Daniel Segal’s “Editor’s Note: On Anthropology and/in/of Science”(2001); and Gary Lee Downey, Joseph Dumit, and Sarah Williams’s “Cyborg Anthropology” (1995).

Cultural Anthropology has also published essays on art and/as cultural analysis. See Kenneth George’s “Ethics, Iconoclasm, and Qur’anic Art in Indonesia” (2009), and Liam Buckley’s “Objects of Love and Decay: Colonial Photographs in a Postcolonial Archive” (2005).