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“Nobres Selvagens” na Ilustríssima (Folha de S.Paulo) de domingo, 22 de fevereiro de 2015

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Antropólogos, índios e outros selvagens

RICARDO MIOTO
ilustração ANA PRATA

22/02/2015  03h05

RESUMO Livro do antropólogo Napoleon Chagnon que aborda suas pesquisas entre os ianomâmis é lançado no Brasil. Em entrevista, autor, que direcionou sua carreira para uma interpretação evolutiva do comportamento indígena, fala sobre suas conclusões e comenta a recepção, muitas vezes negativa, de sua obra entre seus pares.

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Sobre Napoleon Chagnon, 76, há só uma unanimidade: trata-se do pesquisador mais polêmico da antropologia contemporânea.É

Nesta entrevista, o americano –que lança agora no Brasil o livro “Nobres Selvagens: Minha Vida entre Duas Tribos Perigosas: os Ianomâmis e os Antropólogos” pelo selo Três Estrelas, do Grupo Folha– afirma que a antropologia brasileira representa o que há de mais atrasado no pensamento anticientífico nessa área.

Chagnon critica ainda alguns brasileiros ligados à temática indígena, como o líder ianomâmi Davi Kopenawa, “manipulado por antropólogos e ONGs”, e o cineasta José Padilha, autor do documentário “Segredos da Tribo”, que “deveria se limitar a filmar Robocop”.

Ana Prata

Chagnon estudou os ianomâmis do Brasil e, principalmente, da Venezuela a partir de 1964 e ao longo de 35 anos, em 25 viagens que totalizaram 5 anos entre os índios. Foi o pioneiro no contato com várias tribos isoladas, que acredita serem uma janela para as sociedades pré-históricas nas quais o gênero Homo viveu por milhões de anos.

Foi visto com antipatia por diversos colegas antropólogos por propor explicações darwinianas para o comportamento dos índios –e dos humanos em geral– e ao escrever, em 1968, um livro em que tratava amplamente da violência entre os índios e no qual, desde o título, “Yanomamö: The Fierce People” (sem tradução no Brasil), chamava os ianomâmis de “o povo feroz”. Despertou inimizades ao se afastar dos colegas antropólogos, que acreditava mais interessados em fazer política do que ciência, e se aproximar de geneticistas.

Foi em 1988, porém, que causou a fúria dos colegas, ao publicar na revista “Science” um estudo mostrando que os homens ianomâmis com assassinatos no currículo eram justamente os que tinham mais mulheres e descendentes. Em termos biológicos, a violência masculina e certo egoísmo humano seriam estratégias reprodutivas bem-sucedidas, ideia que desagradou fortemente seus colegas das humanidades.

O antropólogo sempre defendeu que os índios que estudou guerreavam movidos por uma insaciável vontade de capturar mulheres, enquanto os livros tradicionais de antropologia diziam que a guerra primitiva tinha motivos como a escassez de alimentos ou de terra.

Chagnon diz que seus críticos são marxistas movidos pela ideologia de que os conflitos humanos se explicam pela luta de classes ou por disputas materiais, e não por motivos mais animalescos, como a busca por sucesso sexual.

Ele afirma que nenhum colega pôde apontar falhas nos dados publicados na “Science”. No entanto, antropólogos questionam seu procedimento não só nesse caso como em outros trabalhos (leia ao lado).

Em 2000, o jornalista Patrick Tierney publicou o livro “Trevas no Eldorado” (lançado no Brasil em 2002, pela Ediouro), acusando Chagnon e colegas, entre outras coisas, de terem espalhado sarampo deliberadamente entre os índios. As acusações foram investigadas pela Associação Americana de Antropologia, que inocentou os pesquisadores da grave acusação.

Na entrevista abaixo, feita por telefone, Chagnon trata ainda de temas como a higiene dos índios e os riscos da selva.

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Folha – O antropólogo Eduardo Viveiros de Castro criticou na internet a publicação do seu livro no Brasil, dizendo que o sr. está ligado à “direita boçalmente cientificista”.

Napoleon Chagnon – A ideia de que o comportamento humano tem uma natureza biológica, moldada pela evolução, além da cultura, sofreu muita oposição nas últimas décadas de quem tem uma visão marxista. Está havendo uma mudança de paradigma, mas os antropólogos brasileiros são o último reduto dessa oposição e sempre tentaram impedir meu trabalho.

Marxistas não gostam de explicações que não envolvam a luta por recursos materiais. Para eles, isso explica tudo. Eles diziam, por exemplo, que a causa da guerra entre os ianomâmis era a escassez de proteína –uma tribo atacaria a outra em busca de carne. Nossas observações mostraram, porém, que não havia correlação. Eles tinham abundância de proteína; lutavam, na verdade, por mulheres.

Nos EUA, cientistas importantes, como meu grande amigo Steven Pinker e o professor Jared Diamond, escreveram recentemente livros demonstrando a relevância crescente da psicologia evolutiva.

Os antropólogos latino-americanos me atacam, mas não têm dados para rebater as conclusões que proponho, porque não gostam de trabalho de campo. Eles gostam de argumentos teóricos, de ficar sentados nas suas cadeiras na universidade fazendo ativismo. No entanto, para entender o mundo, você tem de coletar informações a fim de testar suas previsões e teorias. Essa é a base do método científico. A tendência pós-modernista é dizer que não há verdade, que tudo é social ou político. Isso é a morte da ciência.

Esses críticos dizem que sua visão dos ianomâmis é muito negativa. Citam trechos do seu livro em que o sr. descreve criticamente os hábitos de higiene dos índios, dizendo que eles espalhavam muco em tudo.

Tenho muitas críticas à minha própria civilização também, como o excesso de filas. Os ianomâmis não têm uma teoria da transmissão de doenças via germes. Então assoam o nariz na mão e passam no cabelo, nos outros, até na minha bermuda [risos]. A primeira coisa que quis aprender na língua deles foi “não encoste em mim, suas mãos estão sujas”, mas não adiantou. Você se acostuma.

Na verdade, você percebe que há coisas mais sérias com que se preocupar. A vida na tribo é perigosa. Há muitas cobras. Um bebê de uma tribo ianomâmi em que vivi sumiu, e os pais concluíram que a única explicação era que tivesse sido comido por uma anaconda. Há ainda muitos insetos, há onças, muitos outros incômodos.

Como é a sua relação com o líder ianomâmi Davi Kopenawa?

Ele é manipulado pelos seus mentores, seus conselheiros políticos, a maioria antropólogos e ONGs, que dizem a ele o que ele deve declarar. Ouço que muitos jornalistas brasileiros têm essa percepção, mas sabem que é impopular dizer isso em público.

As entrevistas com ele costumam ser mediadas por antropólogos.

Pois é. Veja, em uma das minhas visitas aos ianomâmis no Brasil, Kopenawa proibiu o piloto do meu avião de utilizar o combustível que tinha guardado perto de uma das tribos em que ele tinha influência. Ele queria a todo custo que eu ficasse isolado na floresta, fez isso deliberadamente. O piloto teve de conseguir combustível com outros colegas. Essa é uma das razões que me levaram a não ter uma opinião muito positiva a respeito dele.

Kopenawa critica vocês por não devolverem amostras de sangue que coletaram entre os índios em 1967 para estudos científicos na área de genética e que foram parar em bancos de universidades dos EUA.

Sou simpático a esse pedido. Mas essas amostras são 99% de tribos venezuelanas, não brasileiras. Seria horrível se entregássemos tal sangue para os ianomâmis brasileiros, como Kopenawa. Uma tribo ficaria muito assustada de saber que seus vizinhos têm o sangue de seus ancestrais, eles acreditam que isso poderia ser utilizado para fazer magia negra, por exemplo.

É importante dizer que, influenciadas por antropólogos, lideranças ianomâmis tornaram impossível hoje, para qualquer pesquisador, ir a suas tribos e coletar amostras de sangue; foram convencidos de que isso foi um crime terrível que cometemos. Dessa forma, nenhum pesquisador da área biomédica pode agora fazer estudos que envolvam coleta de amostras. Os ianomâmis vetaram para sempre qualquer pesquisa que possa beneficiar a sua saúde e dependa de exames de sangue.

Eu gosto muito dos ianomâmis. Fiquei muitos anos com eles. Eles merecem ser mais bem representados. É nítido que eles precisam de instituições que permitam acesso à medicina moderna, por exemplo. Eles precisam de ajuda.

De qualquer forma, eu não coletei amostras de sangue. Eu só ajudei os médicos a fazê-lo. Eu sou antropólogo. Não estou nem aí para o que acontecerá com as amostras de sangue congeladas nos EUA. Mas seria irresponsável se fossem entregues aos índios errados.

O sr. assistiu ao documentário “Os Segredos da Tribo” (2010), do brasileiro José Padilha?

Padilha mentiu para mim, foi muito desonesto. Ele disse que faria um filme equilibrado, mas nunca mencionou que as acusações feitas contra mim foram completamente desmentidas [pela Associação Americana de Antropologia]. Ele contratou um missionário que falava a língua ianomâmi para fazer as entrevistas com os índios. Esse missionário, amigo meu, depois veio me avisar que Padilha direcionava as entrevistas contra mim, que tudo era feito para criar a impressão de que os ianomâmis me odiavam. O filme é ridículo.

Além disso, Padilha lançou o filme e desapareceu, nunca respondeu às minhas ligações. Na apresentação do filme no festival de Sundance, ele não só não me convidou como chamou três antropólogos inimigos meus para debater. Um deles, Terence Turner, que teve participação ativa na elaboração do filme, me acusava de ser o Mengele das tribos ianomâmis. É doentio. Padilha deveria se limitar a filmar “Robocop”.

Depois de trabalhar muitos anos nas universidades do Michigan e de Missouri, o sr. agora é professor aposentado. Aposentou-se também da pesquisa científica?

Não. Continuo trabalhando com os dados que coletei nas tribos ao longo desses anos todos. Estou para publicar vários artigos em revistas importantes, como a “Science”, mostrando o impacto de conceitos caros à biologia, como o parentesco, na organização das tribos ianomâmis. Se os antropólogos brasileiros não gostam do meu trabalho, ainda não viram nada [risos]. No caso do público brasileiro, espero que os leitores encontrem no meu livro agora publicado uma melhor compreensão da natureza humana, seja no comportamento dos povos indígenas ou no de um vizinho.

RICARDO MIOTO, 25, é editor de “Ciência” e “Saúde” da Folha.

ANA PRATA, 34, é artista plástica.

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Livro contribui para distanciar ciências humanas e biológicas

André Strauss

22/02/2015  03h09

Por sua alegada coragem em sustentar hipóteses fundamentadas em princípios darwinianos, o antropólogo americano Napoleon Chagnon, que dedicou sua carreira a estudar a violência entre os índios ianomâmis, apresenta-se em “Nobres Selvagens” [trad. Isa Mara Lando, Três Estrelas, 608 págs., R$ 89,90] como vítima dos mais diversos ataques e preconceitos por parte de seus pares.

Os antropólogos culturais, os religiosos salesianos, os ativistas políticos e os próprios ianomâmis são retratados como grupos ferozes ou biofóbicos. Já Chagnon seria apenas um inocente antropólogo de Michigan. A tese não convence.

Embora o antropólogo pretenda ser um expoente da síntese entre biologia e antropologia, suas proposições são bastante limitadas e, muitas vezes, equivocadas. Exemplo disso é partir do princípio de que uma sociedade não contatada é o mesmo que uma sociedade não impactada, atribuindo aos ianomâmis condição análoga à de sociedades paleolíticas. Propor um contratualismo hobbesiano baseado na luta por mulheres também soa ingênuo.

Em seu livro, Napoleon Chagnon insiste na noção anacrônica de “ciência pura”, desmerecendo a militância pró-indígena dos antropólogos brasileiros como um capricho do politicamente correto.

Mesmo reconhecendo-se que em diversas ocasiões seus detratores exageraram, esse tipo de postura maniqueísta do autor não contribui para a necessária superação dos conflitos epistemológicos e políticos que seguem existindo, ainda que ligeiramente mitigados, entre as chamadas ciências humanas e biológicas.

Um famoso filósofo darwiniano certa vez reconheceu que as teorias antropológicas de cunho biológico têm, inegavelmente, o péssimo hábito de atrair os mais indesejáveis colaboradores. Daí a importância da cada vez maior politização dos bioantropólogos e o movimento explícito por parte deles para impedir que esses associados participem de seus círculos.

Ainda assim, provavelmente Chagnon não é culpado das acusações mais graves que lhe foram imputadas, tal como a de disseminar propositalmente uma epidemia de sarampo entre os indígenas ou a de incentivar, por escambo, que eles declarassem guerras uns contra os outros a fim de que ele pudesse incluir as cenas de violência em um documentário que estava produzindo.

Por outro lado –e isso não se pode negar a Chagnon–, é verdade que as humanidades muitas vezes parecem apresentar aquilo que se convencionou chamar de um “desejo irresistível para a incompreensão”, resultando em acusações injustas e de caráter persecutório.

Algumas décadas atrás, ainda era possível negar a relevância de campos como a genética comportamental, a ecologia humana, a neurociência cognitiva ou a etologia de grandes símios. Atualmente, entretanto, qualquer tentativa de mantê-los fora da esfera antropológica é um exercício vão.

Mais importante, a estratégia comumente utilizada no passado de atrelar os desdobramentos oriundos dessas áreas a implicações nefastas para a dignidade humana, torna-se, além de injusta, muito perigosa.

Juntos, antropólogos e biólogos precisam elaborar uma narrativa capaz de ressignificar esses novos elementos através de uma ótica benigna. Afinal, eles passarão, inevitavelmente, a fazer parte do arcabouço teórico de ambas as disciplinas.

ANDRÉ STRAUSS, 30, é antropólogo do Laboratório de Estudos Evolutivos Humanos da USP e do Instituto Max Planck de Antropologia Evolutiva, na Alemanha.

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Trajetória do pesquisador é marcada por querelas

Marcelo Leite

22/02/2015  03h13

Não é trivial resumir as objeções que a antropologia cultural levanta contra Napoleon Chagnon. A controvérsia tem quase meio século, e a tarefa fica mais complicada quando muitos dos antropólogos relevantes do Brasil se recusam a dar entrevistas sobre o caso.

O panorama se turvou de vez em 2000, com o livro “Trevas no Eldorado”. Nele o jornalista Patrick Tierney acusava Chagnon e o médico James Neel de, em 1968, terem causado uma epidemia de sarampo entre os ianomâmis da Venezuela e experimentado nos índios um tipo perigoso de vacina, além de negar-lhes socorro médico.

Chagnon e Neel foram depois inocentados dessas acusações graves. Bruce Albert, antropólogo e crítico de Chagnon que trabalha há 36 anos com os ianomâmis, já escreveu sobre a ausência de fundamento das alegações de Tierney.

Ana Prata

Nem por isso Albert deixa de assinalar sérios erros éticos da dupla. Para ele, os ianomâmis foram usados, sem saber, como grupo de controle para estudos sobre efeitos de radiação nuclear no sangue de sobreviventes de bombardeios em Hiroshima e Nagasaki.

Chagnon, capataz de Neel na expedição, obtinha amostras de sangue em troca de machados, facões e panelas. Embora essa prática perdurasse nos anos 1960-70, Albert ressalva que regras exigindo consentimento informado já vigiam desde 1947 (Código de Nuremberg) e 1964 (Declaração de Helsinque).

Os reparos ao trabalho de Chagnon abarcam também a própria ciência. Ele se diz superior aos antropólogos tradicionais, que acusa de relativistas pós-modernos, xingamento comum nos setores cientificistas da academia americana.

A polêmica teve início com o livro “Yanomamö: The Fierce People”, em que Chagnon apresentou sua tese de que ianomâmis são uma relíquia ancestral da espécie humana: selvagens com compulsão pela guerra como forma de obter mulheres, escassas devido à prática do infanticídio feminino.

Os críticos da etnografia de Chagnon afirmam que ele nunca comprovou o infanticídio seletivo. Com efeito, a explicação foi abandonada em outros estudos, como um famigerado artigo de 1988 no periódico científico “Science”.

O trabalho recorre a dados demográficos coletados por Chagnon para corroborar sua noção, bem ao gosto da sociobiologia, de que os homens mais violentos eram os que tinham mais mulheres e filhos. Esses seriam os que os ianomâmis chamam “unokai” –segundo o autor, os mais temidos no grupo (e, por isso, mais prolíficos).

Albert, Jacques Lizot e outros antropólogos consideram que ele misturou alhos com bugalhos. “Unokai” não seria um atributo individual, mas o estado de impureza (simbólica) daquele que mata alguém com armas ou feitiçaria, ou mesmo só entra em contato com o sangue de cadáveres de inimigos.

Além disso, em incursões contra outras aldeias, os guerreiros muitas vezes dão golpes e flechadas em adversários já mortos. Isso os tornaria “unokai”, não homicidas.

Os mais admirados não seriam esses, mas os “waitheri”, algo como “valorosos”, que se distinguem não só pela valentia, mas também pela capacidade de liderar, de falar bem, até pelo humor.

Não bastasse isso, os críticos apontam manipulação de números. Para inflar seus dados e chegar a 44% de homens que teriam participado de mortes e tinham até o triplo de filhos na comparação com os não “unokai”, Chagnon teria excluído da amostra jovens de 20 a 25 anos e homens mortos –violentos ou não, com ou sem filhos.

Em fevereiro de 2013, o antropólogo Marshall Sahlins renunciou à Academia Nacional de Ciências dos EUA após o ingresso de Chagnon. Num artigo em que explicava o ato, defendeu que um antropólogo alcança entendimento superior de outros povos quando toma seus integrantes como semelhantes –e não objetos naturais, “selvagens”, ao modo de Chagnon.

“É claro que esse não é o único meio de conhecer os outros. Podemos também utilizar nossa capacidade simbólica para tratá-los como objetos físicos”, escreveu. “Mas não obteremos o mesmo conhecimento dos modos simbolicamente ordenados da vida humana, do que é a cultura, ou até a mesma certeza empírica.”

MARCELO LEITE, 57, é repórter especial e colunista da Folha.

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Morte sistemática de Ianomâmis é um tabu

Leão Serva

23/02/2015  02h00

A Folha publicou com grande destaque na edição de domingo (22) a notícia do lançamento do livro “Nobres Selvagens” (pela Três Estrelas, selo do Grupo Folha), de autoria do antropólogo norte-americano Napoleon Chagnon. Títulos na capa e no caderno da Ilustríssima chamaram a obra de “livro tabu”.

Trata-se de um exagero baseado no discurso persecutório do autor, que sempre responde às críticas a seu trabalho com alegações de perseguição pessoal ou boicote. Uma pesquisa no Google News apresenta 872 respostas com notícias sobre o antropólogo e 64 referências ao livro, incluindo veículos de grande prestígio internacional como “The New York Times” e “Washington Post”.

No Brasil, certamente a obra não foi tema de reportagens simplesmente porque não havia sido lançada.

Na edição, textos de Marcelo Leite e André Strauss compilam as principais fragilidades apontadas pelos críticos da obra de Chagnon.

Uma bem importante, no entanto, não foi mencionada: o antropólogo dá pouca importância ao caráter simbólico das expressões da cultura que aparecem nos depoimentos de índios (e de brancos também, é bom que se diga), o que o leva a tomar o que ouve literalmente. Assim, em sua entrevista, é quase infantil a descrição dos perigos de uma aldeia Ianomâmi. Os medos que Chagnon menciona que concentrariam a atenção dos índios para longe dos cuidados médicos (risco de onças e cobras) são próprios de um alienígena. Já os índios criam cobras em casa para comer ratos; sabem que onças têm medo dos homens e, em situações raras, quando se aproximam furtivamente da periferia da aldeia para tocaiar uma criança, logo são capturadas pelos índios, como eu mesmo testemunhei. Não quer dizer que não haja medo, mas o antropólogo o amplifica para reforçar o estereótipo de atraso.

A história de que um casal ianomâmi teria atribuído o desaparecimento de seu filhinho a uma anaconda esfomeada é bizarra: o bebê na aldeia não fica um minuto longe dos outros e uma sucuri no lento processo de engolir uma criança seria vista por dúzias de pessoas e morta. Chagnon certamente não entendeu o que lhe foi dito ou tomou por verdade uma mentira (vale lembrar que um “civilizado” banqueiro suíço também mente).

Em texto mais antigo, Chagnon apontava o gesto de bater no peito, comum em festas de ianomâmis como expressão da violência da cultura desses grupos. Ora, o mesmo movimento pode ser encontrado diariamente em culturas mais “evoluídas”, segundo seu critério, das grandes cidades da Europa e dos EUA (nas missas católicas quando se diz “Minha culpa, minha culpa, minha máxima culpa”) à Mesopotâmia, berço das civilizações (onde soldados contemporâneos reproduzem o gesto antes de ataques de infantaria). Chagnon não leva em conta o alicerce básico do estudo da antropologia, que as culturas humanas são simultâneas, embora diferentes na expressão material.

Por fim, para desfazer as críticas feitas pelo líder Davi Kopenawa, criou a história de que ele é manipulado por antropólogos. A Folha parte dessa premissa para questionar Chagnon: “As entrevistas com ele costumam ser mediadas por antropólogos”, ao que o autor diz: “Pois é”, e segue sua catilinária.

Trata-se de uma inverdade que qualquer repórter que fale bem português ou ianomâmi pode comprovar. Eu entrevistei Kopenawa três vezes em épocas e lugares diferentes, duas delas sem aviso prévio. Me aproximei, pedi para falar e conversamos sem mediação. Uma vez, em seu escritório em Boa Vista, ele pediu que outras pessoas (que eu não conhecia, índios e brancos) saíssem da sala para ser entrevistado. Fala fluentemente um português simples (de brasileiro não universitário) com forte sotaque. É preciso ter calma e prestar atenção, por vezes pedir que repita para entender a pronúncia de algumas palavras.

A última vez que o encontrei foi numa entrevista para a revista Serafina, com hora marcada. Também ficou só, enquanto eu estava acompanhado da jovem fotógrafa Helena Wolfenson, da Folha. É possível que estrangeiros que falem mal ou não falem português precisem de tradutor. E são certamente raras as pessoas que falam português, ianomâmi e línguas estrangeiras. Talvez daí a história de que ele se faça acompanhar de “antropólogos” ou gente de ONG.

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O que de fato é um “tabu” (aquilo de que não se fala) na imprensa brasileira é o lento processo de abandono dos Ianomâmi à morte, em curso por incompetência ou (depois de tanto tempo) decisão do governo federal.

Como noticiei nesta coluna em maio do ano passado, as mortes de Ianomâmi por problemas de saúde cresceram nos dois governos do PT (Lula e Dilma). Muitas das doenças são simples de evitar, como provam as estatísticas da segunda metade dos anos 1990.

O aumento se deve em grande medida à interrupção dos trabalhos de medicina preventiva nas aldeias e ao crescimento dos gastos com transporte dos doentes das aldeias para a capital de Roraima, Boa Vista.

A maior parte dos custos do Ministério da Saúde com a saúde indígena em Roraima tem sido despejada em frete de aviões para levar índios a Boa Vista. São poucas as empresas de táxi aéreo, as mesmas que levam políticos locais em seus deslocamentos.

Em janeiro do ano passado, quando a entrevistei, a coordenadora do Ministério da Saúde para as áreas indígenas de Roraima, Maria de Jesus do Nascimento, explicou o aumento das mortes dizendo: “Não, dinheiro não falta… Foi problema de gestão, mesmo”.

Na área Ianomâmi, uma médica cubana do programa Mais Médicos se desesperava: “Não tenho antibióticos, não tenho oxigênio, não tenho equipamentos”. Eu perguntei o que fazia: “Não quero mas sou forçada a mandar os índios de avião para Boa Vista”. O meio se tornou o fim. A saúde dos índios se tornou desculpa para enriquecer as empresas de táxi aéreo.

Quem procura no mesmo Google News notícias sobre as mortes de Ianomâmi pela improbidade dos órgãos de saúde local só encontra quatro notícias, uma delas do espanhol El País, as demais noticiando os protestos dos índios e um debate no Congresso.

Esse genocídio lento e discreto é o verdadeiro tabu.

Previsão do tempo no Sudeste é uma dor de cabeça para cientistas (Folha de S.Paulo)

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15/02/2015

Peculiaridades do clima regional tornam difícil saber como ficará o nível do Cantareira mesmo no curto prazo

Área está sujeita à influência de vários fatores complexos, como umidade da Amazônia e frentes frias da Antártida

REINALDO JOSÉ LOPES

COLABORAÇÃO PARA A FOLHA

LUCAS VETTORAZZO

DO RIO

Se a sucessão de boas e más notícias sobre a chuva que abastece os reservatórios de São Paulo parece uma confusão só, não se preocupe: previsões climáticas sobre o Sudeste brasileiro podem confundir até especialistas.

Isso acontece porque a região mais populosa do Brasil ocupa uma área do globo terrestre que recebe todo tipo de influência complexa, desde a umidade oriunda da Amazônia até as frentes frias “sopradas” da Antártida.

Resultado: um nível de incerteza acima do normal numa seara que, por natureza, já é bastante incerta.

“Isso vale principalmente para prever o clima, ou seja, as variações de médio e longo prazo, mas também é verdade, ainda que em grau bem menor, para as previsões de tempo, ou seja, na escala de dias”, diz Tercio Ambrizzi, climatologista da USP.

Portanto, não é que o tempo seja mais instável na área do sistema Cantareira, o mais castigado pela atual crise e agora em ligeira recuperação. O que ocorre é que a região que abastece o Cantareira às vezes pode ficar mais sujeita a variações aleatórias de um sistema climático naturalmente complicado.

TEORIA DO CAOS

“Em escalas maiores do que 15 dias, faz décadas que está comprovado que o clima é caótico”, diz Gilvan Sampaio de Oliveira, meteorologista do Inpe (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais).

“Aliás, foi a partir daí que surgiu a teoria do caos”, afirma ele, referindo-se à ideia de que, em certos fenômenos complexos, pequenas mudanças no começo podem levar a alterações muito maiores e imprevisíveis no fim.

Em regiões tropicais, como é o caso de quase todo o território do Brasil, isso é ainda mais verdadeiro, porque o calor injeta mais energia na atmosfera, fazendo com que alterações do tempo aconteçam com mais velocidade e imprevisibilidade.

Além do calor, porém, o Sudeste também tem a desvantagem de que as variações climáticas por aqui dependem de fatores não oceânicos.

“Quando o clima de uma região depende do oceano, é bem mais fácil prevê-lo porque as variações oceânicas acontecem de forma bem mais lenta do que as da atmosfera”, explica Oliveira. “É o caso do semiárido nordestino, ligado basicamente às condições do oceano Pacífico e do Atlântico tropical. Se é ano de El Niño, com o Pacífico mais aquecido, a tendência é seca no Nordeste.”

Já as chuvas do Sudeste, em especial as de verão, estão ligadas principalmente à ZCAS (Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul), formada pela umidade da Amazônia, que se espalha numa grande faixa que atravessa o Brasil Central, e pelas frentes frias antárticas (veja infográfico).

“Quando essa zona se fortalece você pode ter chuva constante por três, quatro, cinco dias, e é bem comum isso acontecer no Carnaval, como inclusive deve acontecer neste ano”, diz Oliveira.

Em 2014 e, em menor grau, também neste ano, contudo, a ZCAS não atuou como deveria, com um bloqueio atmosférico impedindo que as chuvas de verão atingissem o Sudeste (e o Cantareira) em cheio. As chuvas constantes e bem distribuídas voltaram apenas nas últimas semanas, porque a ZCAS parece ter se “ajeitado” de novo.

Mesmo nesse cenário, isso não significa que as chuvas de verão cessem totalmente. Com o calor típico da estação, há um ciclo rápido de evaporação e chuva –mas é um padrão local, o que explica tempestades localizadas e inundações na Grande São Paulo, sem que essas precipitações façam cócegas no Cantareira.

Há ainda outro agravante, que talvez ajude a entender a fama de imprevisível da área. Até pouco tempo atrás, não havia estações pluviométricas confiáveis para medir o volume de chuva na região do Cantareira, conta José Marengo, climatologista do Cemaden (Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais).

“Os pluviômetros mais próximos eram os de Campos do Jordão. Faltam registros históricos. Não podemos intercalar com os dados de Campos do Jordão porque é outro regime chuva.”

Quebra de protocolo (Folha de S.Paulo)

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19/02/2015

O Protocolo de Kyoto –controverso tratado de 1997 para conter a mudança do clima– teve escasso sucesso. A melhor evidência disso está no fato de as negociações internacionais sobre o tema tomarem hoje rumo muito diferente.

Nada assegura, no entanto, que uma trilha bem-sucedida se iniciará na decisiva conferência de Paris, a ser realizada em dezembro.

Neste fevereiro faz dez anos que o protocolo entrou em vigor, após a ratificação por 189 países. O acordo estabelecia que 37 nações industrializadas reduziriam suas emissões de gases do efeito estufa em 5% no período de 2008 a 2012, tomando por base o ano de 1990.

A meta foi alcançada com folga. Os países comprometidos cortaram em 22,6% a poluição que aprisiona radiação solar na atmosfera, aquecendo-a além da conta. Assim, falar em fracasso parece mesquinho.

Ocorre que as emissões globais subiram 16,2% até 2012. O clima mundial seguiu firme na rota do aquecimento porque não participavam do tratado os dois maiores poluidores, China e Estados Unidos.

O primeiro, por ser um país em desenvolvimento –e que desenvolvimento: sua economia cresceu a taxas próximas de 10% ao ano. O segundo, por força da política doméstica, uma vez que a eleição do presidente democrata Barack Obama foi incapaz de reverter o veto congressual a qualquer acordo que excluísse a China.

Ao final do primeiro período de Kyoto, em 2012, tentou-se em Doha (Qatar) um novo e mais ambicioso objetivo: reduzir em 18% as emissões até 2020. Apenas 23 nações aderiram à meta até agora.

O fracasso da via aberta em 1997 e pavimentada em 2005 foi sobretudo político. Obter consenso entre diversos países em torno de objetivos que possam ser monitorados e cobrados por uma instância internacional parece cada vez mais inviável, assim como a transferência de recursos e tecnologia, anátema entre potências desenvolvidas.

A alternativa surgida na tortuosa negociação diplomática sobre mudança do clima, após o fiasco da Cúpula de Copenhague (2009), foi afrouxar compromissos. Eles podem agora ser voluntários, e cada nação propõe quando planeja alcançá-lo e com base em qual ano.

Há amplo ceticismo, porém, quanto à chance de que a estratégia desvinculante produza o resultado esperado, a saber, impedir que o aquecimento ultrapasse 2°C neste século. Além desse limite, a ciência indica risco acentuado de desastres como secas duradouras e enchentes avantajadas.

Todas as atenções se voltam para o fim do outono em Paris.

*   *   *

Kyoto, 10, engatinha

16/02/2015

Protocolo, que entrou em vigor em 2005, fracassou em reduzir emissões mundiais de gases-estufa; para piorar, novas metas, traçadas em 2012, só tiveram 23 adesões

MAURÍCIO TUFFANI

COLABORAÇÃO PARA A FOLHA

Dez anos após ter entrado em vigor, o Protocolo de Kyoto tem um diagnóstico claro: o acordo fracassou em reduzir as emissões mundiais de gases-estufa, que cresceram 16,2% de 2005 a 2012.

O pacto internacional, porém, não foi de todo inócuo e teve certo sucesso em conscientizar a sociedade e implantar projetos ambientais, tecnológicos e de desenvolvimento econômico para prevenir o agravamento do aquecimento global.

Concluído em 1997 em Kyoto, no Japão, o protocolo estabelecia metas de redução das emissões de gases-estufa. Só em 2005 ele adquiriu força para entrar em vigor, com a ratificação pela Rússia.

O protocolo teve 189 ratificações, entre elas a do Brasil, em 2002. Mas suas novas metas de redução de emissões de 2013 a 2020, estabelecidas em 2012 no Qatar, só tiveram até agora 23 adesões.

Em um balanço, a secretaria da Convenção-Quadro das Nações Unidas sobre Mudança Climática (UNFCCC) destacou que 37 países, a maioria da União Europeia, superaram sua meta de reduzir em 5% suas emissões até 2012.

A agência, contudo, deixou de lado os números do aumento global das emissões e o alerta enfático feito em 2014 por seu braço científico, o IPCC (Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudança Climática): não há mais tempo para reduzir a concentração de gases-estufa para que o aumento médio da temperatura da superfície terrestre até 2100 seja inferior a 2º C.

Essa elevação traria como consequência mais secas, derretimento de geleiras e inundações de zonas costeiras pela elevação dos oceanos.

Para evitar esse cenário, seria preciso reduzir as emissões em 80% até 2050.

PERDAS E GANHOS

“Estou convencida de que sem o protocolo de Kyoto não estaríamos avançados como hoje na crescente penetração das energias renováveis”, disse Christiana Figueres, secretária-executiva da UNFCCC.

Figueres também destacou cerca de 7.800 projetos de apoio a países em desenvolvimento, envolvendo benefícios de até US$ 13,5 bilhões para reduzir emissões por desmate e para “sequestro de carbono” da atmosfera por meio de recuperação e ampliação de florestas.

“Se olharmos quantitativamente para as emissões, o protocolo falhou. Mas sem ele a União Europeia não teria atingido grandes avanços nas reduções”, diz Carlos Nobre, que acaba de assumir o cargo de diretor do Cemaden (Centro de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais).

Nobre ressalta que a Alemanha mostrou que é possível reduzir os gases-estufa sem diminuir seu PIB. “Vejo com otimismo esse efeito pedagógico”, disse Nobre.

Já para o físico da USP e membro do IPCC Paulo Artaxo, ainda que o tratado tenha aumentado a adesão de novas tecnologias e a conscientização para o que ele chama de “problema mais sério já enfrentado pela humanidade”, houve, além do aumento da concentração de carbono na atmosfera, acúmulo de CO2 nos oceanos, o que pode causar desequilíbrios para a vida marinha.

PERSPECTIVAS

Segundo Carlos Rittl, secretário-executivo do Observatório do Clima, a próxima conferência do clima, em dezembro, em Paris, poderá ter avanços graças ao recente acordo entre EUA (que assinaram mas não ratificaram o Protocolo de Kyoto) e China.

Para ele, um dos grandes desafios para os governos, inclusive o do Brasil, é o planejamento econômico e energético. Ele afirma que isso ainda é feito sem assimilar as mudanças climáticas, e a atual crise energética e hídrica do país é prova disso.

Fabio Feldmann, secretário-executivo do Fórum Paulista de Mudanças Climáticas e de Biodiversidade e ex-secretário estadual do Meio Ambiente de São Paulo, afirma ainda que a redução de desmatamentos no Brasil criou uma “falsa impressão” de que o país pode continuar com os mesmos níveis de emissões em outros setores.

De fato, enquanto as emissões por desmates no país diminuíram 64% de 2005 a 2013, as das atividades agropecuárias e do consumo de energia cresceram, respectivamente, 6% e 42%, segundo o Observatório do Clima.

Guerra do clima (Folha de S.Paulo)

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Pedidos de quebra de sigilo de cientistas crescem com a proximidade da Cúpula do Clima de Paris e acentuam embate sobre aquecimento global nos EUA

RAFAEL GARCIA

19/02/2015

ENVIADO ESPECIAL A SAN JOSE (EUA)

A animosidade entre climatologistas e grupos que questionam a atribuição do aquecimento global às emissões de CO2 tem crescido, e uma nova guerra pelo controle da informação começa a ser travada nos bastidores, principalmente nos EUA.

Os métodos usados nesse embate, porém, são diferentes daquele usado às vésperas da Cúpula do Clima de Copenhague, em 2009, quando diversos cientistas tiveram e-mails roubados e vazados na internet.

Agora, céticos do clima usam pedidos formais, baseados em leis de acesso à informação, para tentar quebrar o sigilo de correspondência dos pesquisadores.

“Veremos uma escalada similar à medida que a Cúpula do Clima de Paris se aproxima, no fim de 2015”, disse o climatologista Michael Mann, da Universidade do Estado da Pensilvânia, em palestra no encontro da AAAS (Associação Americana para o Avanço da Ciência), em San Jose.

Do encontro em Paris deve sair um novo acordo internacional para combater o aquecimento global, no lugar do Protocolo de Kyoto.

“Vai haver um esforço para confundir o público e os formuladores de politicas”, afirmou Mann.

As petições que buscam quebrar o sigilo de e-mail e anotações de cientistas em geral alegam suspeita de fraude e se baseiam em leis de transparência de informações que garante acesso a documentos produzidos por funcionários de governo.

Segundo um novo relatório da ONG Union of Concerned Scientists, esse tipo de abordagem a climatologistas cresce desde 2010, quando o promotor Ken Cuccinelli intimou a Universidade da Virgínia a liberar e-mails e anotações de Mann, que trabalhou para a instituição.

O processo se estendeu por quatro anos e, mesmo com decisão favorável ao cientista, longas horas foram consumidas para discussões com a própria universidade –que ameaçava liberar os dados temendo ser punida.

Mann foi o único a travar uma disputa pública. Mas, segundo a AGU (União Americana de Geofísica), questionamentos do tipo têm se direcionado a cientistas de instituições como Nasa, NOAA (agência oceânica e atmosférica) e o Departamento de Energia. Alguns desistem de travar a batalha legal.

Steven Dyer, da Universidade Commonwealth da Virgínia, achou que passar mais de 100 horas compilando mensagens para responder a petições seria menos dispendioso e interrompeu seu período sábatico para fazê-lo.

A entidade autora da petição –o centro de estudos conservador American Tradition Institute– passou então a exigir seus “livros de registro”. Essa e outras entidades recebem verbas da indústria do petróleo.

“Eles acham que temos um livro onde os pós-graduandos relatam o que estão fazendo”, diz Michael Helpern, autor do relatório da Union of Concerned Scientists.

Desde 2011, o congresso anual da AGU tem centro jurídico a disposição de cientistas de clima, que os orienta sobre como agir nesses casos.

“No último ano, tive muito trabalho”, conta a advogada Lauren Kurtz. Ela dirige agora o Fundo para Defesa Legal da Ciência do Clima, que levanta recursos para atender a cientistas assediados.

Baylor Researcher Finds First-Ever Evidence of Climate Change of Northern China Region Dating Back Thousands of Years (Baylor Univ.)

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China's Hunshandake Sandy Lands

China’s Hunshandake Sandy Lands (Courtesy of Steve Forman)

Feb. 16, 2015

By Tonya B. Lewis

Study Sheds Light on How Populations Respond and Adapt to Climate Change

WACO, Texas (Feb. 16, 2015) — Using a relatively new scientific dating technique, a Baylor University geologist and a team of international researchers were able to document—for the first time—a drastic climate change 4,200 years ago in northern China that affected vegetation and led to mass migration from the area.

Steve Forman, Ph.D., professor of geology in the College of Arts & Sciences, and researchers—using a dating technique called Optically Stimulated Luminescence—uncovered the first evidence of a severe decrease in precipitation on the freshwater lake system in China’s Hunshandake Sandy Lands. The impact of this extreme climate change led to desertification—or drying of the region—and the mass migration of northern China’s Neolithic cultures.

Their research findings appear in the January 2015 issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and are available online.

“With our unique scientific capabilities, we are able to assert with confidence that a quick change in climate drastically changed precipitation in this area, although, further study needs to be conducted to understand why this change occurred,” Forman said.

Between 2001 and 2014, the researchers investigated sediment sections throughout the Hunshandake and were able to determine that a sudden and irreversible shift in the monsoon system led to the abrupt drying of the Hunshandake resulting in complications for the population.

“This disruption of the water flow significantly impacted human activities in the region and limited water availability. The consequences of a rapid climatic shift on the Hunshandake herding and agricultural cultures were likely catastrophic,” Forman said.

He said these climatic changes and drying of the Hunshandake continue to adversely impact the current population today. The Hunshandake remains arid and even with massive rehabilitation efforts will unlikely regrow dense vegetation.

“This study has far-reaching implications for understanding how populations respond and adapt to drastic climate change,” Forman said.

Forman is the director of the Geoluminescence Dating Research Lab in the department of geology.

Study co-authors include: Xiaoping Yang, Ph.D., of the Chinese Academy of Sciences; Louis A. Scuderi, Ph.D., of the University of New Mexico; Xulong Wang, Ph.D., of Chinese Academy of Sciences; Louis J. Scuderi, Ph.D., of the University of Hawaii; Deguo Zhang, Ph.D., of the Chinese Academy of Sciences; Hongwei Li, Ph.D., of the Chinese Academy of Sciences; Qinghai Xu, Ph.D., of Hebei Normal University; Ruichang Wang, Ph.D., of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Weiwen Huang, Ph.D., of the Institute of Vertebrate Paleontology and Paleoanthropology and Shixia Yang, Ph.D., of the Institute of Vertebrate Paleontology and Paleoanthropology.

The West without Water: What Can Past Droughts Tell Us About Tomorrow? (Origins)

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vol. 8, issue 6 – march 2015

by  B. LYNN INGRAM

The West without Water: What Can Past Droughts Tell Us About Tomorrow?

Lake Oroville, California, 2014. The level of water in this important storage reservoir is well below average, a visual reminder of the ongoing drought in the U.S. Southwest.

Editor’s Note:
Almost as soon as European settlers arrived in California they began advertising the place as the American Garden of Eden. And just as quickly people realized it was a garden with a very precarious water supply. Currently, California is in the middle of a years-long drought and the water crisis is threatening the region’s vital agricultural economy, not to mention the quality of life of its people, plants, and animals. This month B. Lynn Ingram, Professor of Geography and Earth & Planetary Science, examines how a deep historical account of California’s water patterns can help us plan for the future.

The state of California is beginning its fourth year of a serious drought, with no end in sight.

The majority of water in the western United States is delivered by winter storms from the Pacific, and over the past year, those storms were largely blocked by an enormous ridge of high pressure. A relatively wet December has given way to the driest January on record, and currently over 90 percent of California is in severe to exceptional drought.

The southwestern states are also experiencing moderate to severe drought, and this comes on the heels of a very dry decade. This long drought has crept up on the region, partly because droughts encroach slowly and they lack the visual and visceral effects of other, more immediate natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, or tsunamis.

Meteorologists define drought as an abnormally long period of insufficient rainfall adversely affecting growing or living conditions. But this bland definition belies the devastation wrought by these natural disasters. Drought can lead to failed crops, desiccated landscapes, wildfires, dehydrated livestock, and in severe cases, water wars, famine, and mass migration.

Although the situation in the West has not yet reached such epic proportions, the fear is that if it continues much longer, it could.

Lake Powell, in 2009, showing a white calcium carbonate “bathtub ring” exposed after a decade of drought lowered the level of the reservoir to 60 percent of its capacity. (Photo courtesy of U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.)

In California, reservoirs are currently at only 38 percent of capacity, and the snowpack is only 25 percent of normal for late January. Elsewhere in the Southwest, Lake Powell, the largest reservoir on the Colorado River, is at 44 percent of capacity.

The amount of water transported through irrigation systems to California’s Central Valley—the most productive agricultural region in the world—has been reduced to only 20 percent of customary quantities, forcing farmers to deepen groundwater wells and drill new ones.

Over the past year, 410,000 acres have been fallowed in this vast agricultural region that provides 30 percent of all the produce grown in the United States and virtually all of the world’s almonds, walnuts, and pistachios. As California dries up, food prices might well rise across the nation.

The question on everyone’s mind is when will this dry period finally come to an end and rainfall return to normal—and just what is normal for the U.S. Southwest when it comes to rain?

And with a growing and more urban population and an ever-changing climate, will we ever be free from the threat of long dry periods, with their disruptive effects on food production and the plants and animals that rely on water to survive?

A glance into the history of the Southwest reminds us that the climate and rainfall patterns have varied tremendously over time, with stretches of drought many decades longer than the one we are experiencing now.

Long dry stretches during the Medieval centuries (especially between 900 and 1350 CE) had dramatic effects on the native peoples of the Southwest (the ancestral Pueblo, Hohokam, and Sinagua), including civilizational collapse, violence, malnutrition, and forced social dislocation.

These earlier Americans are a warning to us.

The past 150 years, which we have used as our baseline for assumptions about rainfall patterns, water availability for agriculture, water laws, and infrastructure planning, may in fact be an unusually wet period.

Let’s look at the past few hundred years first and then explore the region’s climate in geological time.

Recent Droughts and the Arid Regions of the United States

John Wesley Powell stands as one of the most extraordinary scientists and explorers in America in the second half of the 19th century.

In 1869 he became the first white man to lead an expedition down the Colorado River and through the Grand Canyon, a feat all the more remarkable considering Powell had lost most of his right arm during the Civil War.

Ten years later, Powell published Report on the Lands of the Arid Regions of the United States, a careful assessment of the region’s capacity to be developed.

In it, Powell argued that very little of the West could sustain agriculture. In fact, his calculations suggested that even if all the water in western streams were harnessed, only a tiny fraction of the land could be irrigated.

Further, Powell believed that growth and development ought to be carefully planned and managed, and that boundaries drawn for new western states ought to follow watersheds to avoid inter-state fighting over precious water resources.

When Powell presented his findings to Congress, politicians howled. Powell found himself denounced by pro-development forces, including railroads and agricultural interests.

Prescient as Powell’s study has proved to be, it was almost entirely ignored at the time.

Instead, those development boosters responded to Powell’s data about the aridity of the west with a novel climatological theory: “Rain follows the plow.” They insisted that agriculture could cause the rains to fall, so like magic the more acres brought under cultivation the more rain farmers would enjoy.

The years surrounding the turn of the 20th century turned out to be unusually wet across much of the region. Hopeful pioneers continued to flock to the West, despite the visible signs of aridity.

They still do. The past century and a half in California and the West has been a period of steady population growth. And today the U.S. Southwest is the fastest-growing region in the United States (which itself is the world’s fourth-fastest-growing nation).

The Dirty Thirties and Beyond

The relatively wet period of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries gave way to drought in the late 1920s with the start of the Dust Bowl—now considered to be the United States’ worst climate tragedy.

The years between 1928 and 1939 were among the driest of the 20th century in the American West. This drought had particularly severe effects on California’s developing agricultural industry that were only mitigated by the extensive pumping of groundwater that eventually caused the ground surface in California’s Central Valley to drop by several feet.

Donner Lake, Sierra Nevada Range, California (Photo taken by B. Lynn Ingram).

In the 20th century, the single driest year (rivaling the 2013-2014 water year) was the drought of 1976-1977, extending across the entire state of California and into the Northwest, the Midwest, and the Canadian Prairie region north of Montana.

In California, precipitation levels dropped to less than a quarter of average. Reservoirs dropped to one-third their normal levels, and 7.5 million trees in the Sierra Nevada weakened by drought succumbed to insect related diseases, fueling massive wildfires. Snowfall was extremely sparse, forcing ski areas to close.

The following decade, another six-year drought occurred from 1987 to 1992, and while no single year was as severe as the drought of 1976-1977, the cumulative effects were ultimately more devastating. Annual precipitation attained only 50 percent of the 20th century average, with far-ranging impacts.

In the Sierra Nevada, water-stressed trees suffered widespread mortality from pine bark beetle infestations. Reduced stream flow caused major declines in fish populations, affecting commercial and recreational fisheries by lowering populations of Chinook salmon and striped bass.

By the fourth year of the drought, reservoir storage statewide was down 60 percent, causing a decline in hydroelectric power generation and the imposition of water restrictions including a decrease in agricultural water delivery by 75 percent.

Farmers relied more on groundwater, with private well owners deepening existing wells or drilling new ones. In the San Joaquin Valley, 11 million acre-feet more groundwater was extracted than could be replenished naturally, further lowering already low groundwater levels.

Measuring Droughts over Geological Time

As bad and worrisome as these more recent historical droughts in California and the West were, they pale in comparison to events uncovered in the geological record.

In recent years, earth scientists have been discovering that the climate and weather in the West over the past 100 to 150 years represents only a narrow part of the full range of climate in the region.

By peering deeper into Earth’s history—the past centuries and millennia—the frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events like drought can be better understood.

The evidence comes in various forms, such as mud from the bottom of lakes and ponds, microscopic organisms living in the oceans, bubbles frozen in glaciers, pencil-thin wood cores drilled from trees, and salts precipitating in dried-up lake bottoms.

A cut section of a Giant Sequoia trunk from Tuolumne Grove, Yosemite National Park, California, showing AD dates of fires (photo courtesy of Thomas Swetnam, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona).

One of the earliest records of past climate change comes from the rings of the long-lived Douglas fir. Trees are particularly effective recorders of climate because they respond every year to conditions of temperature and precipitation, responses recorded in the growth rings of their trunks.

In a landmark study during the early 1940s, a 600-year record of Colorado River flow using Douglas firs revealed several sustained periods of low water flow and these periods recurred with some regularity.

The reconstruction showed a particularly severe drought in the late 1500s, a drought lasting over a decade that has since shown up in multiple records from throughout the West.

These records also reveal that the driest single year over the past millennium (even drier than the parched 1976-1977 drought) occurred in 1580 CE. Trees across the West either had a narrow ring, or even a missing ring, that year.

Looking at an even broader picture, evidence from the past 10 millennia—a relatively warm era since the last Ice Age, which we call the Holocene—informs us that the severity of past extreme events (including droughts and floods) far exceeds those experienced over the past century and a half.

One of the longest dry periods for California and the West occurred during what is known as the mid-Holocene climatic optimum, a time when much of the earth experienced warmer than average conditions from about 4,500 to 7,500 years ago.

In the American West, there are numerous clues showing that this time period was drier than average for upwards of 1,400 years. These climate extremes caused significant human dislocations and forced native populations to migrate from the desert interiors of the West to the coastal regions.

The Tools for Uncovering Climate History

One of the most vivid clues for understanding the patterns of past drought in the West was revealed in Lake Tahoe toward the end of the Great Dust Bowl of the mid-1930s. At that time, Tahoe’s water level dropped fourteen inches, exposing a mysterious clustering of tree stumps sticking up from the water’s surface along the lake’s southern shore.

These trees attracted the attention of Samuel Harding, an engineering Professor from the University of California, Berkeley. Harding discovered that the trees were large, with trunks as wide as three feet in diameter, and appeared to be firmly rooted in the lake bottom.

Harding reasoned that the trees had grown in this location for a long time to attain such sizes, and since they were now submerged in over twelve feet of water, he surmised that at some time in the past the lake level had been much lower.

Frances Malamud-Roam, B. Lynn Ingram, and Christina Brady coring a small oxbow lake in the Sacramento Valley, California. (Photo taken by Anders Noren, University of Minnesota, LaCore curator.)

After collecting cores through their trunks, he counted up to 150 rings, concluding that it was a dry spell of over a century that caused the lake level to drop, allowing the trees to grow along the former shoreline.

Harding had to wait two decades before he could date this drought, after the invention of radiocarbon dating in the 1950s. Radiocarbon measurements of the outermost rings of the tree stumps showed that these trees died approximately 4,800 years ago.

Decades later, more evidence emerged from Lake Tahoe during another of California’s droughts in the late 1980s, when the lake’s surface dropped again, exposing even more tree stumps.

This time, it was an archaeologist, Susan Lindstrom, who noticed the tops of trees sticking out of the water along Tahoe’s southern shore. Donning scuba gear, Lindstrom was able to find fifteen submerged tree stumps that had escaped Harding’s attention, some measuring up to three and a half feet in diameter.

The radiocarbon dates from this much larger population of trees refined and extended the boundaries of the mid-Holocene drought, moving the beginning to as early as 6,290 years ago, and the ending to 4,840 years ago.

These stumps, located deeper in the lake, showed that the lake level had dropped by even more than Harding originally thought – by more than 20 feet. Lindstrom and other researchers have since located tree stumps in more places around the shores of Lake Tahoe and in other Sierran lakes.

Sediment core taken by Frances Malamud-Roam and B. Lynn Ingram from beneath San Francisco Bay, California. (Photo taken by B. Lynn Ingram.)

Geologists have also discovered more evidence from sediment cores taken from beneath lakes revealing the wide extent of this drought—across California and the Great Basin.

The archaeological records show that native populations migrated from the inland desert regions to the California coast at this time, likely in search of water and other resources during this prolonged drought.

Another dry millennium began about 3,000 years after the mid-Holocene drought ended. Evidence for this prolonged drought was found throughout California and the West.

One study, conducted in my laboratory at UC Berkeley, examined sediments accumulating beneath the San Francisco Bay estuary. These sediments contain information about precipitation over the entire drainage basin of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers—an area that covers 40 percent of California.

Frances Malamud-Roam and Anders Noren coring marsh sediments adjacent to San Francisco Bay (Photo taken by B. Lynn Ingram)

Rivers draining the Sierra Nevada Range and Central Valley flow through San Francisco Bay and out the Golden Gate to the Pacific Ocean. In the Bay, fresh river water meets and mixes with the incoming ocean water, producing a range of salinity: fresh at the Delta, saline in the Central bay near the Golden Gate, and brackish in between.

Organisms growing in the Bay record the salinity in their shells, which then sink to the bottom and are preserved in the sediments. We took sediment cores from beneath the Bay and analyzed the chemistry of the fossil shells, allowing us to reconstruct past salinity, and therefore past river flow.

These studies showed that droughts lasting over a decade occurred regularly over the past two millennia, at intervals of 50 to 90 years. The cores also revealed a period of high salinity that began about 1,700 years ago and ending about 700 years ago, suggesting another prolonged drought.

We conducted a related study with Professor Roger Byrne in the Geography Department at UC Berkeley, coring the tidal marshlands surrounding the bay to assess the impact of this drought on this ecosystem.

These marshes have grown up around the edges of San Francisco Bay for the past 5,000 years or so, forming peat. The marsh peats contain fossil plants and chemical evidence for past periods of wetter and drier conditions in the watershed.

A drought in the watershed, if prolonged and severe, can cause higher salinity downstream in the estuary as the inflow of fresh water drops. In response, salt-tolerant species in the marshes expand further inland toward the Delta and the fresh water species retreat. Conversely, unusually wet winters generate fresher conditions in the estuary, leading to an expansion of freshwater-adapted species.

We analyzed the pollen and plant remains, carbon chemistry of the peats, and diatoms—the microscopic phytoplankton that grow in the marshes and produce tiny silica shells.

All of this evidence showed that the average freshwater inflow to San Francisco Bay was significantly lower than today’s levels for a thousand years, between 1,750 and 750 years ago.

The peak of this low-inflow interval, with freshwater flows 40 percent below average levels, occurred approximately 900 to 1,200 years ago, during a time when global temperatures were high, known as the Medieval Warm Period.

Mono Lake, showing calcium carbonate “tufa tower” formations that originally formed beneath the lake but are now exposed after the water level dropped. The eastern flank of the Sierra Nevada range is shown in the background. (Photo by D. J. DePaolo.)

Evidence for this drought was also discovered in an ancient lake situated east of the Sierra Nevada. Geography Professor Scott Stine analyzed the sedimentary sequences in Mono Lake, delineating patterns of alternately higher and lower lake levels for the past 4,000 years.

Mono Lake experienced an extended low stand that began about 1,600 years ago, dropping to an even lower level 700 to 1,200 years ago. During the 1980s drought, Stine also discovered large tree stumps submerged in Mono Lake.

Much like the tree stumps discovered in Lake Tahoe, these submerged trees indicated that at one time the lake was so small that its shoreline was several tens of feet lower than the present shoreline, when the trees now underwater could grow on dry ground. Stine went on to discover similar submerged tree stumps in lakes, marshes, and rivers throughout the central and southern Sierra Nevada Range.

By counting their growth rings, Stine determined that they had lived up to 160 years. Based on the amount the lake level dropped, he calculated that the average annual river flows in the region were only 40 to 60 percent of what they were in the late 20th century.

Radiocarbon dates of the outer growth layers of these tree stumps revealed that these trees clustered around two distinct periods, now known as the “Medieval Megadroughts”: CE 900 to 1100 and CE 1200 to 1350.

An ancient tree stump submerged in the West Walker River, eastern Sierra Nevada. (Photo courtesy of D. J. DePaolo.)

Across North America, tree-ring studies indicate that climate conditions over the past two millennia became steadily more variable (shifting between drier and wetter periods), with especially severe droughts between CE 900 and 1400.

These records show that over half the American West suffered severe drought between CE 1021 and CE 1051, and from CE 1130-1170, CE1240-1265 and CE 1360-1382.

The warm and dry conditions of the Medieval period spawned larger and more frequent wildfires, as recorded in the trunks of Giant sequoias—the massive redwoods growing in about 75 distinct groves along the mid-elevations of the western Sierra Nevada. These spectacular trees can live up to 3,200 years or more, and have exceeded 250 feet in height and 35 feet in diameter.

Thomas Swetnam, the current Director of the Laboratory of Tree Ring Research at the University of Arizona, discovered that the trees carry scars on their annual growth rings that indicate past fires in the region.

Swetnam sampled giant sequoias from five groves between Yosemite National Park and Sequoia National Park, far enough apart that individual fires could not have spread from one grove to the next. He dated the trees using ring-width patterns, and recorded the fire scars contained within annual rings.

His analysis reveals that during the Medieval period, from 1,200 to 700 years ago, an average of thirty-six fires burned every century.

During the centuries preceding the Medieval period (from about 1,500 to 1,200 years ago) and immediately following it (from about 700 years ago to the current century), the fire frequency was substantially lower, with an average of 21 fires per century.

The Human Costs of Droughts Then and Now

The archaeological record suggests that the extended periods of drought in the Medieval era caused severe hardship for both coastal and inland peoples— particularly the ancestral Pueblo communities—as dwindling resources increased disease, malnutrition, and warfare. Long inhabited sites were abandoned as the desperate populations wandered in search of new water sources.

Ancient pueblo cliff dwelling at Mesa Verde, southwestern Colorado. (Photo taken by B. Lynn Ingram)

Much of what archaeologists know about the ancestral Pueblo comes from pueblo and cliff dwellings from the four corners region, including Chaco Canyon in northwestern New Mexico, Mesa Verde in southwestern Colorado, and Canyon de Chelly in northeastern Arizona.

Chaco Canyon in New Mexico was the site of one of the most extensive of the ancestral Pueblo settlements. At its peak, during the 11th and early 12th centuries CE, Chaco Canyon had great pueblos the size of apartment blocks housing hundreds of residents in large, high-ceilinged rooms.

These settlements were supported by agriculture, allowing people to settle in one place year-round. Most of the farming depended on annual rains, supplemented by water from nearby streams and groundwater.

But over time, the climate became increasingly arid and unpredictable. The ancestral Pueblo farmers were forced to build an extensive system of diversion dams and canals, directing rainwater from the mesa tops to fields on the canyon floor, allowing them to expand the area of arable land.

The population in the four corners region swelled throughout the 11th and 12th centuries CE—but then collapsed.

Another ancient society, the Hohokam, lived in central Arizona near the confluence of Arizona’s only three rivers, the Gila, Verde, and Salt. The Hohokam civilization thrived in central Arizona for a thousand years, building an extensive network of integrated canal systems, capable of transporting large volumes of water long distances.

At their peak, an estimated 40,000 Hohokam lived in Arizona, but they suddenly vanished in the mid-15th century.

Montezuma’s Castle, a cliff dwelling occupied by the Sinagua, located just north of Camp Verde in central Arizona. (Photo by B. Lynn Ingram.)

In northern Arizona, between Phoenix and Flagstaff, the Sinagua culture also thrived during this period. As the climate turned drier, they built cliff dwellings in central Arizona, suggesting that resources became scarce, forcing them to build fortified dwellings with hidden food storage areas. The Sinagua also disappeared about the same time as the Hohokam.

All of these societies were flourishing prior to a rather abrupt collapse. The archaeological record of the last decades of the ancestral Pueblo in Chaco Canyon abounds with signs of suffering.

Skeletal remains show signs of malnutrition, starvation and disease; life spans declined and infant mortality rates increased. Evidence of violence, possibly warfare, was found in mass graves containing bones penetrated with arrowheads and teeth marks, and skulls bearing the scars of scalping.

Piles of belongings were found, apparently left behind as the people abandoned their settlements and fled, some to live in fortified hideouts carved in the cliff faces, protecting their hoarded food from enemies.

The unusually dry climate of the Medieval period also appeared to have tested the endurance and coping strategies of even the well-adapted native populations in California.

The skeletal remains show that life in the interior of California was particularly difficult, as the drought severely reduced sources of food (nuts, plants, deer, and other game). Settlements along rivers were abandoned, and trade between inland and coastal groups broke down. As water supplies dried up, conflicts – even battles – between groups arose over territory and food and water resources.

The Watery Lessons of the Past

The “Medieval Drought” serves as a model for what can happen in the West. It also provides an important impetus for water sustainability planning. And the hardships suffered by the first human inhabitants in the West provide important lessons.

For instance, during extended periods of abundant moisture, some societies experienced rapid population growth, leaving them vulnerable to collapse when the climate inevitably turned dry again.

Modern societies in the West have followed a similar path over the past century— after a century of fairly abundant moisture, the population in this region has exploded (and become more urbanized).

Modern engineering has allowed the exploitation of all available water sources for human use, and western water policy has favored water development for power, cities, and farms over sustainability of the environment and ecosystems.

These policies have allowed populations to grow to the limit that this region can support, leaving us vulnerable during extended drier conditions.

The longest six-year droughts experienced by the West over the past century are meager by comparison, despite the extreme hardship they brought to the region.

In fact, in the context of the longer-term climate history, the 20th century actually stands out as one of the wettest over the past 1,300 years, yet the droughts of the mid-1920s, 1977 and the late 1980s caused immense hardship for our society, based as it is upon heavy water usage.

In addition, future changes in the global climate will interact with the natural cycles of drought in California and the West in ways that are difficult to predict. Climate models predict that warming will likely make the extreme events, particularly floods and droughts, even larger and more frequent.

Some of these impacts have already begun. Over the past two decades, warming and an earlier start of the spring season have caused forest fires to become more frequent and intense.

A warmer climate will also bring less precipitation that falls as snow. The American West depends on snow-bearing winter storms for a natural water reservoir. This snow begins melting in the late spring, and continues into the summer, filling streams, lakes, and reservoirs that sustain natural ecosystems throughout the dry summer months.

The snow pack supports cities and irrigated agriculture, providing up to 80 percent of the year’s water supply across the West. As the region warms, the snow that does fall will melt faster and earlier in the spring, rather than melting during the late spring and summer, when it is so critically needed.

The message of past climates is that the range of “normal” climate is enormous—and we have experienced only a relatively benign portion of it in recent history. The region’s climate over the past decade has been dry when compared to the 20th century average, suggesting a return to a drier period.

This past year was also the warmest on record in the American West, and the ten hottest years on record occurred since 1997. The position of inhabitants of the West is precarious now and growing more so.

As we continue with an unsustainable pattern of water use, we become more vulnerable each year to a future we cannot control. It is time for policy makers in the West to begin taking action toward preparing for drier conditions and decreased water availability.

Read more from Origins on Water and the Environment: The World Water Crisis; The River Jordan; Who Owns the Nile?; The Changing Arctic; Over-Fishing in American Waters; Climate Change and Human Population; and the Global Food Crisis.

Suggested Reading

Benson, L., Kashgarian, M., Rye, R., Lund, S., Paillet, F., Smoot, J., Kester, C., Mensing, S., Meko, D. and Lindstrom, S., 2002. “Holocene Multidecadal and Multi-centennial Droughts Affecting Northern California and Nevada.” Quaternary Science Reviews 21, 659-682.

Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Cole, J., Hughes, M.K., and Osborn, T.J., 2003. “The climate of the last millennium.” In: Alverson, K, Bradley, R.S., and Pedersen, T.F. (Eds.), Paleoclimate, Global Change and the Future, Springer Verlag, Berlin, pp. 105-49.

Brunelle, A. and Anderson, R.S., 2003. “Sedimentary charcoal as an indicator of late-Holocene drought in the Sierra Nevada, California, and its relevance to the future. “ The Holocene 13(1), 21-28.

Cayan, D. R., S. A. Kammerdiener, M. D. Dettinger, J. M. Caprio, and D. H. Peterson, 2001. “Changes in the onset of spring in the Western United States.” Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 82, 399-415.

Fagan, B., 2003. Before California: an Archaeologist Looks at Our Earliest Inhabitants. Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, Inc, Lanham, MD. 400 p.

Gleick, P.H. and E.L. Chalecki. 1999.” The impacts of climatic changes for water resources of the Colorado and Sacramento-San Joaquin river basins.” Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 35, No. 6, pp.

Hughes, M.K. and Brown, P.M., 1992. “Drought frequency in central California since 101 B.C. recorded in giant sequoia tree rings.” Climate Dynamics 6,161-197

Ingram, B. Lynn and Malamud-Roam, F. (2013) The West without Water: What past floods, droughts, and other climatic clues tell us about tomorrow. UC Press, 256 pages.

Ingram, B. L., Conrad, M.E., and Ingle, J.C., 1996. “A 2000-yr record of Sacramento-San Joaquin River inflow to San Francisco Bay estuary, California.” Geology 24, 331-334.

Lightfoot, K., 1997. “Cultural construction of coastal landscapes: A middle Holocene perspective from San Francisco Bay.” In: Erlandson, J. and Glassow, M. (eds), Archaeology of the California Coast during the Middle Holocene, 129-141. Series, Perspectives in California Archaeology 4, Institute of Archaeology, Univ. of California.

Malamud-Roam, F. and B.L. Ingram. 2004. “Late Holocene d13C and pollen records of paleosalinity from tidal marshes in the San Francisco estuary.” Quaternary Research 62, 134-145.

Stahle, D. W., Cook, E. R., Cleaveland, M. K., Therrell, M. D., Meko, D. M., Grissino-Mayer, H. D., Watson, E., and Luckman, B., 2000. “Tree-ring data document 16th century megadrought over North America.” EOS Transactions of the American Geophysical Union 81 (12), 121-125.

Stine, S., 1990. “Past Climate At Mono Lake.” Nature 345: 391.

Stine, S., 1994. “Extreme and persistent drought in California and Patagonia during mediaeval time.” Nature 369: 546-549.

Swetnam, T.W. 1993. “Fire history and climate change in Giant Sequoia groves.” Science 262, 885.

Paz nos estádios é difícil, diz autor de relatório sobre violência no futebol (Folha de S.Paulo)

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19/02/2015  02h00

Uma das metáforas mais usadas a respeito do futebol é compará-lo a uma guerra. Marco Aurelio Klein, 64, não vê o assunto desta forma. Primeiro porque é especialista em violência no esporte. Mas também por ser um estudioso da 2ª Guerra Mundial.

Autor de documento inspirado no Relatório Taylor, que praticamente erradicou o fenômeno dos hooligans nos estádios ingleses a partir da década de 1990, ele trabalha atualmente na atualização do texto a pedido do ministro George Hilton (Esporte).

“O meu relatório é de 2006. O ministro ficou impressionado. Estou animado que seja posto em prática”, disse.

Em entrevista à Folha, ele chegou a uma conclusão de que a violência no futebol nacional não será resolvida de um dia para o outro. “Não tem mágica”, constata.

PÓS-COPA DO MUNDO
O Mundial no Brasil trouxe legado importante: os estádios sem alambrados. Mesmo no clássico entre Corinthians e Palmeiras em que aconteceu aquela confusão toda [tumulto entre palmeirenses e a PM] e com a derrota do time da casa, ninguém invadiu o campo. Alambrado não segura ninguém que quer invadir. Eu já vi torcedor pular alambrado que tinha arame farpado. Outra herança importante é o sistema de monitoramento dos estádios. E este deve ser ostensivo. A sala do monitoramento deve ser visível a todos. As pessoas precisam saber que o Big Brother está ali, presente.

SOLUÇÕES E ERROS
Parece que no Brasil, nessa questão da violência no futebol, há muita tentativa e erro. Cada hora existe uma ideia mágica que vai resolver o problema… Isso não existe. Todas as ideias são com boas intenções, mas não vão resolver. Não existe uma solução da noite para o dia. A solução é longa, difícil e custosa.

  Eduardo Knapp/Folhapress  
Marco Aurelio Klein, presidente da Autoridade Brasileira de Controle de Dopagem, durante palestra
Marco Aurelio Klein, autor de relatório federal sobre violência de torcidas, durante palestra

ESPÍRITO DE GUERRA
Antes do último clássico entre Corinthians e Palmeiras, eu li que a polícia estava preparando uma operação de guerra. Quando vi aquilo, pensei: “acabou”. Como operação de guerra? Uma família não vai para um estádio que tem operação de guerra. O vândalo adora. Quando a polícia diz que é operação de guerra, esses vândalos ganham condição de combatentes do Estado Islâmico.

LIÇÕES DO RELATÓRIO TAYLOR
O que inspirou o Relatório Taylor foi [a tragédia de] Hillsborough, em que morreram 96 pessoas na cidade de Sheffield [em 1989]. Não houve briga. Nem tinha torcida organizada. Houve desorganização, despreparo, superlotação. Não existiam protocolos de emergência.
Não esqueço quando tive reunião com os ingleses. Eles disseram que levaram anos para aprender que a questão não era repressão. Era organização. É o grande clássico na final? Depende do histórico. Ponte Preta e Paulista de Jundiaí, por exemplo, é jogo para 4 mil pessoas, mas são torcedores dos mais perigosos da América porque há um histórico de conflito.

PROPOSTAS
É preciso criar protocolos de segurança. Eu sugiro classificar as partidas em três níveis, sendo “A” a de maior risco, “B” a de risco médico e “C” as de pequeno risco. Os ingleses se organizaram criando unidades de polícia para o futebol. A Scotland Yard, que nem arma usa, tem uma unidade de futebol. Não vejo trabalhando na partida o policial que passou a noite anterior atendendo ocorrências, perseguindo ladrões e depois vai para o enfrentamento com um moleque que está disposto a provocá-lo…

CAMPANHA DE PAZ
Não tem o menor fundamento. Não resolve. Só ajuda se vier como parte de um conjunto de ações. No primeiro momento, a resolução dos ingleses foi: nós não precisamos prender o vândalo. Nós precisamos tirá-lo do estádio.
Ele destrói o espetáculo. E eles nunca tiveram torcida organizada, apenas pequenos grupos que envolviam criminalidade, pequenos furtos ou a destruição pelo prazer da destruição. Conseguiram criar uma coisa na legislação que era preciso tirar o cara do estádio. O articulador nem sempre é o sujeito que dá a porrada, que quebra a cadeira. Pode não ser o pensador.

DIÁLOGO
Minha recomendação, como estudioso, é ouvir as pessoas, mesmo que isso implique algum investimento do governo. Não dá é para transformar isso em competição de quem bate mais, se a torcida ou a polícia. O cidadão é que está no meio É preciso combater a pequena violência. O xingamento é origem do conflito. Uma briga sempre começa pela agressão verbal. Os ingleses perceberam que era preciso mudar o comportamento do torcedor. O torcedor comum entra na balada do xingamento. Quando um cara xinga o outro, depois tem quatro, oito, dez fazendo o mesmo. O perdedor do jogo tem uma frustração imensa para descontar em alguém.

PERCEPÇÃO
A luta maior não é física, de repressão. É de percepção. As pessoas precisam voltar a ir ao futebol como um momento de lazer. Um momento de muita emoção, mas de lazer. Se o seu time ganhar, seu momento de lazer foi premiado com muita alegria, mas pode ser que não. Quando você vai ao cinema ver uma comédia, sai muito alegre. Vê uma tragédia, sai impressionado. No Brasil, o futebol é o único evento de lazer em que a pessoa sai de casa com sua pior roupa.
Ninguém se arruma para o futebol, vai o mais desleixado possível porque a percepção que temos é que se trata de uma coisa desleixada. Não tem o menor sentido porque é o espetáculo mais glorioso que temos. Olhe os números da Liga dos Campeões da Europa, da Copa do Mundo, do Campeonato Inglês…

REPRESSÃO
É preciso tomar mais cuidado na organização do caminho do metrô para o estádio. Aquela cena da torcida do Corinthians agredindo dois torcedores do São Paulo porque estavam com a camisa do clube é absurda. Não pode acontecer. Aí é punição.
Os ingleses tomaram cuidado, entenderam qual era o trânsito, proibiram bebida dentro do metrô. O cara não podia chegar, quebrar o trem e achar que ia para casa sem problema algum. Vamos pegar o Pacaembu de exemplo. É um estádio bacana. As ruas laterais são escuras. Aquela imagem de escuridão passa a imagem de abandono e da terra de ninguém. É preciso pensar no processo todo.

CUSTO DA POLÍCIA
A Inglaterra vai no caminho inverso ao do Brasil. Eles têm cada vez menos polícia. Sabe por quê? Porque a polícia custa caro lá. Aqui no Brasil é de graça em vários estádios. Ou é muito barato e o organizador do jogo, se acha que tem problema, quer muito mais polícia e cria muito mais polícia. Isso não é jeito de fazer um evento.

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RAIO-X
MARCO AURÉLIO KLEIN

IDADE 64

CARGO Autor do relatório final da Comissão Paz no Esporte e secretário nacional da Autoridade Brasileira de Controle de Dopagem

CARREIRA Professor da FGV (2001 a 2009), responsável por futebol no Ministério do Esporte (2004 a 2007), diretor da Federação Paulista de Futebol (1993 a 1994 e 2008 a 2009), diretor de Alto Rendimento do Ministério do Esporte (2009 a 2012) e autor de três livros sobre o futebol brasileiro

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RELATÓRIO TAYLOR TRANSFORMOU FUTEBOL INGLÊS

Apontado por Marco Aurelio Klein como modelo de inspiração no combate à violência nos estádios, o Relatório Taylor revolucionou o futebol da Inglaterra e abriu espaço para que sua liga nacional se tornasse a número um do planeta.

O estudo foi realizado e adotado no país a partir do começo dos anos 1990, como resposta à tragédia de Hillsborough, ocorrida em 1989, quando 96 torcedores morreram pisoteados e esmagados contra grades de proteção devido ao excesso de público na partida entre Liverpool e Nottingham Forest, pela semifinal da Copa da Inglaterra.

Entre as medidas adotadas. que ajudaram conter os hooligans, protagonistas de algumas das maiores confusões no futebol europeu durante a década de 1980, estavam o treinamento de uma polícia especializada, a obrigatoriedade de assentos para todos os pagantes (o que pôs fim à tradição de se torcer em pé) e o fim das grades de proteção para os gramados de futebol.

O relatório também sugeriu a criação de leis específicas para crimes e contravenções praticadas por grupos de torcedores.

Para se adequar a esse novo cenário, os 27 principais estádios da Inglaterra precisaram ser reconstruídos ou passaram por reformas.

Huge epigenomic map examines life’s impact on our genes (New Scientist)

Uncategorized,

18 February 2015 by Catherine Brahic

Magazine issue 3009.

THE nature versus nurture debate is getting a facelift this week, with the publication of a genetic map that promises to tell us which bits of us are set in stone by our DNA, and which bits we can affect by how we live our lives.

The new “epigenomic” map doesn’t just look at genes, but also the instructions that govern them. Compiled by a consortium of biologists and computer scientists, this information will allow doctors to pinpoint precisely which cells in the body are responsible for various diseases. It might also reveal how to adjust your lifestyle to counter a genetic predisposition to a particular disease.

“The epigenome is the additional information our cells have on top of genetic information,” says lead researcher Manolis Kellis of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. It is made of chemical tags that are attached to DNA and its packaging. These tags act like genetic controllers, influencing whether a gene is switched on or off, and play an instrumental role in shaping our bodies and disease.

Researchers are still figuring out exactly how and when epigenetic tags are added to our DNA, but the process appears to depend on environmental cues. We inherit some tags from our parents, but what a mother eats during pregnancy, for instance, might also change her baby’s epigenome. Others tags relate to the environment we are exposed to as children and adults. “The epigenome sits in a very special place between nature and nurture,” says Kellis.

Each cell type in our body has a different epigenome – in fact, the DNA tags are the reason why our cells come in such different shapes and sizes despite having exactly the same DNA. So for its map, the Roadmap Epigenomics Consortium collected thousands of cells from different adult and embryonic tissues, and meticulously analysed all the tags.

So far, they have produced 127 epigenomes, each corresponding to a different cell type, from brain cells to skin cells. That’s a big advance on the 16 published in 2012 by the ENCODE project, which are included in the new map.

The consortium also cross-referenced these healthy epigenomes with previous data on the genetic components of dozens of diseases, including type 1 diabetes, Crohn’s disease, high blood pressure, inflammatory bowel disease and Alzheimer’s disease (see “Alzheimer’s epigenetics“).

The results, says Kellis, allow doctors to see what cell types are likely to be disrupted in people with these conditions. For instance, they suggest disruptions in the epigenome of the brain’s cingulate gyrus cells may play a role in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (Nature, DOI: 10.1038/nature14248).

Richard Meehan of the University of Edinburgh, UK, says the work offers “incredibly valuable information which will be absorbed and debated for years to come”. He suggests that one day doctors will look at your epigenomes during routine health checks to suss out how the nature versus nurture battle is playing out inside your cells. These scans would reveal your genetic predisposition to certain conditions, and how your lifestyle is affecting those risks.

By adjusting your choices accordingly, you will be able to delay disease, or minimise its effects for as long as possible. “It’s not going to move any further forward the point at which your life ends, but make the years up to that point – years that are spent in physical decline – a whole lot better,” says Meehan.

“You see this on Star Trek,” he adds. “Nobody lives any longer but they just seem to be healthier up to the point where life, unfortunately, passes away.”

Alzheimer’s epigenetics

While you can’t change the genes you were born with, you might be able to alter your epigenome – and its influence on your health – through tinkering with your lifestyle.

Studying cells from people with Alzheimer’s and a mouse version of the disease highlights both immune cells and brain cells as key players. This finding supports other studies suggesting that an immune disorder is at least partially responsible for Alzheimer’s.

Manolis Kellis and his team at MIT (see main story) were able to identify both genetic and non-genetic effects. While the immune disruptions were coded in the cells’ genetics, the changes in the brain cells appeared to be influenced by environmental inputs like diet, education, physical activity and age, and are probably associated with epigenetic changes (Nature, DOI: 10.1038/nature14252).

“We have an interplay between genetics and epigenetics,” says Kellis. “You might not be able to do anything about the genetic but you might be able to do something about the epigenomic by – I don’t know – maybe reading more books.”

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Cientistas publicam o primeiro atlas do epigenoma humano (O Globo)

Dados sobre processos que afetam células, responsáveis por sua diferenciação em 111 dos tecidos do corpo, podem ajudar na melhor compreensão de diversas doenças e no desenvolvimento de novos tratamentos para elas

POR CESAR BAIMA

19/02/2015 6:00 / ATUALIZADO 19/02/2015 8:38

No alvo: epigenoma abre caminho para novas abordagens no tratamento e cura de várias doenças Foto: Alamy/Latinstock

No alvo: epigenoma abre caminho para novas abordagens no tratamento e cura de várias doenças – Alamy/Latinstock

RIO – Sequenciado completamente pela primeira vez há pouco mais de uma década, o genoma humano, com suas cerca de 3 bilhões de “letras”, guarda todas as informações necessárias para “construir” uma pessoa. Mas, apesar de quase todas nossas células terem o mesmo DNA, elas podem, e devem, ser muito diferentes umas das outras para que o corpo funcione bem. Afinal, os neurônios do cérebro cumprem trabalhos bem distintos do das células do músculo cardíaco, que por sua vez não poderiam fazer o que fazem as do fígado.

É a conhecida diferenciação celular, e para que isso aconteça é preciso controlar quais genes serão ativados e quais permanecerão dormentes nas células. E é aí que entra em cena o chamado epigenoma, nome dado ao conjunto de processos e reações químicas que regulam esta expressão genética. Ele teve seu primeiro atlas de ação em 111 tecidos que compõem o feto e o organismo humano publicado ontem na edição desta semana da revista “Nature”, junto com mais de 20 artigos neste e outros periódicos científicos abordando seus mecanismos e possíveis relações com doenças e condições como asma, câncer, problemas cardíacos e Alzheimer.

COMO PREENCHER UM ‘MAPA-MÚNDI’ EM BRANCO

Isso porque, mesmo não alterando diretamente o DNA, o epigenoma tem grande importância na maneira como nossas células funcionam e pode ser influenciado por fatores ambientais e hábitos individuais, como a poluição e o tabagismo. Em alguns casos, inclusive, sua atuação pode até mesmo ser hereditária, ajudando a responder o mistério do que é fruto da natureza e o que é resultado da criação — cuja resposta, muitas vezes, deverá ser “ambos”. Segundo os pesquisadores, é como se o genoma fosse um mapa-múndi em branco ao qual o estudo do epigenoma agora acrescenta os nomes dos países, estados e cidades, suas rodovias e ferrovias e a localização de portos e aeroportos, tornando-o muito mais útil.

— Hoje, podemos sequenciar o genoma humano de forma rápida e barata, mas interpretar este genoma ainda é um desafio — lembra Bing Ren, professor da Universidade da Califórnia em San Diego e coautor de diversos dos artigos relacionados ao projeto de mapeamento do epigenoma. — Estes 111 mapas de referência do epigenoma são essencialmente um livro de vocabulário que nos ajuda a decifrar cada segmento do DNA em células distintas e tipos de tecido. Estes mapas são como retratos do genoma humano em ação.

Diante disso, ainda durante o projeto — no qual o Instituto Nacional de Saúde dos EUA (NIH) investiu US$ 300 milhões desde 2006 numa colaboração de centenas de cientistas de dezenas de instituições espalhadas pelo mundo —, diversos pesquisadores começaram a buscar na interação entre genoma e epigenoma possíveis fatores que levam ao desenvolvimento de doenças, abrindo caminho para novas abordagens na busca de tratamentos ou cura.

— As células do fígado e do cérebro usam diferentes pedaços do DNA para produzir um repertório distinto de proteínas dependendo de como os marcadores epigenéticos foram introduzidos em cada célula durante o desenvolvimento embrionário — destaca Steven Jones, professor da Universidade Simon Fraser, no Canadá e outro dos participantes no projeto. — E estes marcadores podem mudar ao longo da vida em resposta a fatores ambientais. De fato, mudanças nos padrões epigenéticos originais de uma célula já foram associadas a diversas doenças humanas, incluindo câncer e Alzheimer.

Leia mais sobre esse assunto em  http://oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/ciencia/cientistas-publicam-primeiro-atlas-do-epigenoma-humano-15375408#ixzz3SDJ9Lxy7
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Indo-European languages emerged roughly 6,500 years ago on Russian steppes, new research suggests (LSA)

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2/13/2015

Linguists have long agreed that languages from English to Greek to Hindi, known as ‘Indo-European languages‘, are part of a language family which first emerged from a common ancestor spoken thousands of years ago. Now, a new study gives us more information on when and where it was most likely used. Using data from over 150 languages, linguists at the University of California, Berkeley provide evidence that this ancestor language originated 5,500 – 6,500 years ago, on the Pontic-Caspian steppe stretching from Moldova and Ukraine to Russia and western Kazakhstan.

“Ancestry-constrained phylogenetic analysis supports the Indo-European steppe hypothesis“, by Will Chang, Chundra Cathcart, David Hall and Andrew Garrett, will appear in the March issue of the academic journal Language. A pre-print version of the article is available on the LSA website.

Chang et al. abstract

This article provides new support for the “steppe hypothesis” or “Kurgan hypothesis”, which proposes that Indo-European languages first spread with cultural developments in animal husbandry around 4500 – 3500 BCE. (An alternate theory proposes that they spread much earlier, around 7500 – 6000 BCE, in Anatolia in modern-day Turkey.)

Chang et al. examined over 200 sets of words from living and historical Indo-European languages; after determining how quickly these words changed over time through statistical modeling, they concluded that the rate of change indicated that the languages which first used these words began to diverge approximately 6,500 years ago, in accordance with the steppe hypothesis.

This is one of the first quantitatively-based academic papers in support of the steppe hypothesis, and the first to use a model with “ancestry constraints” which more directly incorporate previously discovered relationships between languages. Discussion of prior studies in favor of and against the steppe hypothesis can be found in the paper.

Members of the media who are interested in discussing the article and its findings may contact Brice Russ, LSA Director of Communications, and Andrew Garrett, Professor of Linguistics at the University of California, Berkeley.

TWITTER: Fundação Cacique Cobra Coral não vai intervir para parar de chover (O Globo)

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TWITTER: Fundação Cacique Cobra Coral não vai intervir para parar de chover. http://bit.ly/1Ajje8H 

RETWEETS 152

CURTIRAM 71

16:03 – 15 de fev de 2015

Ver Também

O Globo_Rio

@OGlobo_Rio 2 dia s

A Fundação Cacique Cobra Coral informou que não vai intervir na chuva da Sapucaí, pois a prioridade é encher os reservatórios. #CarnavalRJ

Reinaldo Azevedo

@reinaldoazevedo 1 week

Risco de falta de energia é muito grande. Dilma tem de nomear Cacique Cobra Coral como Ministro da Chuva http://t.co/JuBGt7JvF3

Jornal O Globo

@JornalOGlobo 1 month

Não está fácil: Fundação Cacique Cobra Coral vai deixar o Brasil. http://t.co/INPQir2pDa http://t.co/gBFPaLJBGO

Jornal O Globo

@JornalOGlobo 1 month

Lá vem tempestade: Fundação Cacique Cobra Coral vai deixar o Brasil. http://t.co/CeIF1ujKrx http://t.co/Y0rs0tFlNx

O Globo_Rio

@OGlobo_Rio 1 week

Médium da Fundação Cacique Cobra Coral sofre acidente de carro

http://t.co/USYbxCibj7

Pedro Neschling

@pedroneschling 3 months

O nome disso é desespero, amigs // RT @VejaSP: Pela primeira vez, Alckmin apela para Fundação Cacique Cobra Coral.

Pedro Neschling

@pedroneschling 3 months

Cheguei em São Paulo, choveu 2 dias. Call me Cacique Cobra Coral, bitch.

Piadas sobre falta de água reacendem rixa do Norte e Nordeste com o Sudeste (UOL)

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Aliny Gama e Carlos Madeiro

Do UOL, em Maceió

17/02/201506h00

postagens-nas-redes-sociais-ironizam-a-falta-de-agua-no-sudeste-do-brasil-e-lembram-que-o-problema-nao-atinge-o-nordeste-do-pais-1423859662920_615x470

Reprodução/Redes sociais. Piadas e provocações nas redes sociais ironizam a falta de água no Sudeste do país

Em uma daquelas peças que o destino prega, os moradores do Sudeste são vítimas hoje de provocações parecidas com as que muitos costumavam fazer com os nordestinos. Tudo por conta da falta de água que atinge a região e serve de combustível para uma nova onda de piadas, agora voltadas principalmente contra os habitantes do Rio e de São Paulo.

Com humor, nordestinos e nortistas não perdoam a atual crise hídrica nos Estados do Sudeste e acirram o bairrismo entre as regiões. São muitas as postagens em redes sociais que fazem menção à situação.

Em um vídeo que viralizou na internet nesta semana, um garoto do Acre toma banho com o jato do cano ao retirar a torneira da pia. “Aqui é Acre, p… As meninas de São Paulo, sabem o que elas querem? Banho!”, diz o menino.

Em uma outra postagem, moradores de Maceió (AL) tomam banho com um caminhão-pipa durante as prévias carnavalescas e dizem que estão “ostentando” por terem água. “Enquanto vocês criticam nós, nordestinos, eu tomo banho de chuveiro. Claro que é com moderação”, diz, em outro vídeo, o promotor de eventos Galisteu Matias, que reside em Maceió.

Mas qual é o limite entre brincadeira e ofensa? O professor de direito e processo penal da Ufal (Universidade Federal de Alagoas), Welton Roberto, avalia que, nos exemplos citados, não ocorreu nenhum crime e, apesar do gosto duvidoso das piadas, estes casos não caracterizam injúria.

“Só existiria crime se fosse postada alguma agressão, como alguém chamando o outro de burro ou outro palavrão que fosse, caracterizando a injúria penal. Mas brincadeira, mesmo sendo de mal gosto, é brincadeira. Vejo que não atingiu de forma discriminatória ninguém, nem atingiu a dignidade de ninguém”, diz Roberto.

O advogado afirma que quem se sentir ofendido por ter a honra atingida em alguma postagem na internet deve salvar o material e contratar um advogado para que seja feita a queixa-crime. O crime de injúria é previsto no Código Penal e, em caso de condenação, a pena varia de acordo com o grau da ofensa.

Vingança

Para o doutor em história social pela USP (Universidade de São Paulo) e professor da UFPE (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco), Michel Zaidan Filho, a rixa entre moradores do Nordeste e do Sudeste é antiga e existe desde o início do século passado.

“Esse problema remonta desde que alguns Estados do Nordeste, da região sucroalcooleira, perderam importância no contexto econômico e social. Ainda na Primeira República (1889-1930), a região entrou em uma crise grande e se criou uma divisão do trabalho que até hoje persiste: o Nordeste comprador de mercadorias e insumos e fornecedor de mão-de-obra”, afirma o pesquisador.

Sobre as piadas que passaram a circular com provocações sobre a crise hídrica nos Estados do Sudeste, Zaidan Filho avalia que são uma consequência normal e uma espécie de vingança de quem sempre foi o alvo da gozação. Para ele, elas também fazem parte de uma herança cultural.

“Essa vingança faz parte deste contexto marcado por desigualdade e diferenciação cultural muito grande. Isso é um mecanismo psicológico muito comum, só que agora se inverteu, com a região mais forte e poderosa penalizada pelo racionamento de energia e água. Agora, fica muito conveniente ridicularizá-los”, afirma.

Apesar do clima ser de piadas, o professor aponta problemas de convivência que podem resultar da criação de grupos regionais. “O produto que existe é um apartheid, um separatismo que emerge sobretudo em períodos de crise, quando se demoniza os nordestinos. Na Europa, isso também existe com os imigrantes, que são responsabilizados pela crise econômica. É um pouco da situação que ocorre no Brasil”, conclui o pesquisador.

Problem: Your brain (Medium)

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I will be talking mainly about development for the web.

Ilya Dorman, Feb 15, 2015

Our puny brain can handle a very limited amount of logic at a time. While programmers proclaim logic as their domain, they are only sometimes and slightly better at managing complexity than the rest of us, mortals. The more logic our app has, the harder it is to change it or introduce new people to it.

The most common mistake programmers do is assuming they write code for a machine to read. While technically that is true, this mindset leads to the hell that is other people’s code.

I have worked in several start-up companies, some of them even considered “lean.” In each, it took me between few weeks to few months to fully understand their code-base, and I have about 6 years of experience with JavaScript. This does not seem reasonable to me at all.

If the code is not easy to read, its structure is already a monument—you can change small things, but major changes—the kind every start-up undergoes on an almost monthly basis—are as fun as a root canal. Once the code reaches a state, that for a proficient programmer, it is harder to read than this article—doom and suffering is upon you.

Why does the code become unreadable? Let’s compare code to plain text: the longer a sentence is, the easier it is for our mind to forget the beginning of it, and once we reach the end, we forget what was the beginning and lose the meaning of the whole sentence. You had to read the previous sentence twice because it was too long to get in one grasp? Exactly! Same with code. Worse, actually—the logic of code can be way more complex than any sentence from a book or a blog post, and each programmer has his own logic which can be total gibberish to another. Not to mention that we also need to remember the logic. Sometimes we come back to it the same day and sometimes after two month. Nobody remembers anything about their code after not looking at it for two month.

To make code readable to other humans we rely on three things:

1. Conventions

Conventions are good, but they are very limited: enforce them too little and the programmer becomes coupled to the code—no one will ever understand what they meant once they are gone. Enforce too much and you will have hour-long debates about every space and colon (true story.) The “habitable zone” is very narrow and easy to miss.

2. Comments

They are probably the most helpful, if done right. Unfortunately many programmers write their comments in the same spirit they write their code—very idiosyncratic. I do not belong to the school claiming good code needs no comments, but even beautifully commented code can still be extremely complicated.

3. “Other people know this programming language as much as I do, so they must understand my writings.”

Well… This is JavaScript:

This is JAVASCRIPT!

4. Tests

Tests are a devil in disguise. ”How do we make sure our code is good and readable? We write more code!” I know many of you might quit this post right here, but bear with me for a few more lines: regardless of their benefit, tests are another layer of logic. They are more code to be read and understood. Tests try to solve this exact problem: your code is too complicated to calculate it’s result in your brain? So you say “well, this is what should happen in the end.” And when it doesn’t, you go digging for the problem. Your code should be simple enough to read a function or a line and understand what should be the result of running it.

Your life as a programmer could be so much easier!

Solution: Radical Minimalism

I will break down this approach into practical points, but the main idea is: use LESS logic.

  • Cut 80% of your product’s features

Yes! Just like that. Simplicity, first of all, comes from the product. Make it easy for people to understand and use. Make it do one thing well, and only then add up (if there is still a need.)

  • Use nothing but what you absolutely must

Do not include a single line of code (especially from libraries) that you are not 100% sure you will use and that it is the simplest, most straightforward solution available. Need a simple chat app and use Angular.js because it’s nice with the two-way binding? You deserve those hours and days of debugging and debating about services vs. providers.

Side note: The JavaScript browser api is event-driven, it is made to respond when stuff (usually user input) happens. This means that events change data. Many new frameworks (Angular, Meteor) reverse this direction and make data changes trigger events. If your app is simple, you might live happily with the new mysterious layer, but if not — you get a whole new layer of complexity that you need to understand and your life will get exponentially more miserable. Unless your app constantly manages big amounts of data, Avoid those frameworks.

  • Use simplest logic possible

Say you need show different HTML on different occasions. You can use client-side routing with controllers and data passed to each controller that renders the HTML from a template. Or you can just use static HTML pages with normal browser navigation, and update manually the HTML. Use the second.

  • Make short Javascript files

Limit the length of your JS files to a single editor page, and make each file do one thing. Can’t cramp all your glorious logic into small modules? Good, that means you should have less of it, so that other humans will understand your code in reasonable time.

  • Avoid pre-compilers and task-runners like AIDS

The more layers there are between what you write and what you see, the more logic your mind needs to remember. You might think grunt or gulp help you to simplify stuff but then you have 30 tasks that you need to remember what they do to your code, how to use them, update them, and teach them to any new coder. Not to mention compiling.

Side note #1: CSS pre-compilers are OK because they have very little logic but they help a lot in terms of readable structure, compared to plain CSS. I barely used HTML pre-compilers so you’ll have to decide for yourself.

Side note #2: Task-runners could save you time, so if you do use them, do it wisely keeping the minimalistic mindset.

  • Use Javascript everywhere

This one is quite specific, and I am not absolutely sure about it, but having the same language in client and server can simplify the data management between them.

  • Write more human code

Give your non trivial variables (and functions) descriptive names. Make shorter lines but only if it does not compromise readability.

Treat your code like poetry and take it to the edge of the bare minimum.

How The Nature of Information Could Resolve One of The Great Paradoxes Of Cosmology (The Physics Arxiv Blog)

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Feb 17, 2015

Stephen Hawking described it as the most spectacular failure of any physical theory in history. Can a new theory of information rescue cosmologists?

One of the biggest puzzles in science is the cosmological constant paradox. This arises when physicists attempt to calculate the energy density of the universe from first principles. Using quantum mechanics, the number they come up with is 10^94 g/cm^3.

And yet the observed energy density, calculated from the density of mass in the cosmos and the way the universe is expanding, is about 10^-27 g/cm^3. In other words, our best theory of the universe misses the mark by 120 orders of magnitude.

That’s left cosmologists somewhat red-faced. Indeed, Stephen Hawking has famously described this as the most spectacular failure of any physical theory in history. This huge discrepancy is all the more puzzling because quantum mechanics makes such accurate predictions in other circumstances. Just why it goes so badly wrong here is unknown.

Today, Chris Fields, an independent researcher formerly with New Mexico State University in Las Cruces, puts forward a simple explanation. His idea is that the discrepancy arises because large objects, such as planets and stars, behave classically rather than demonstrating quantum properties. And he’s provided some simple calculations to make his case.

One of the key properties of quantum objects is that they can exist in a superposition of states until they are observed. When that happens, these many possibilities “collapse” and become one specific outcome, a process known as quantum decoherence.

For example, a photon can be in a superposition of states that allow it to be in several places at the same time. However, as soon as the photon is observed the superposition decoheres and the photon appears in one place.

This process of decoherence must apply to everything that has a specific position, says Fields. Even to large objects such as stars, whose position is known with respect to the cosmic microwave background, the echo of the big bang which fills the universe.

In fact, Fields argues that it is the interaction between the cosmic microwave background and all large objects in the universe that causes them to decohere giving them specific positions which astronomers observe.

But there is an important consequence from having a specific position — there must be some information associated with this location in 3D space. If a location is unknown, then the amount of information must be small. But if it is known with precision, the information content is much higher.

And given that there are some 10^25 stars in the universe, that’s a lot of information. Fields calculates that encoding the location of each star to within 10 cubic kilometres requires some 10^93 bits.

That immediately leads to an entirely new way of determining the energy density of the cosmos. Back in the 1960s, the physicist Rolf Landauer suggested that every bit of information had an energy associated with it, an idea that has gained considerable traction since then.

So Fields uses Landauer’s principle to calculate the energy associated with the locations of all the stars in the universe. This turns out to be about 10^-30 g /cm^3, very similar to the observed energy density of the universe.

But here’s the thing. That calculation requires the position of each star to be encoded only to within 10 km^3. Fields also asks how much information is required to encode the position of stars to the much higher resolution associated with the Planck length. “Encoding 10^25 stellar positions at [the Planck length] would incur a free-energy cost ∼ 10^117 larger than that found here,” he says.

That difference is remarkably similar to the 120 orders of magnitude discrepancy between the observed energy density and that calculated using quantum mechanics. Indeed, Fields says that the discrepancy arises because the positions of the stars can be accounted for using quantum mechanics. “It seems reasonable to suggest that the discrepancy between these numbers may be due to the assumption that encoding classical information at [the Planck scale] can be considered physically meaningful.”

That’s a fascinating result that raises important questions about the nature of reality. First, there is the hint in Fields’ ideas that information provides the ghostly bedrock on which the laws of physics are based. That’s an idea that has gained traction among other physicists too.

Then there is the role of energy. One important question is where this energy might have come from in the first place. The process of decoherence seems to create it from nothing.

Cosmologists generally overlook violations of the principle of conservation of energy. After all, the big bang itself is the biggest offender. So don’t expect much hand wringing over this. But Fields’ approach also implies that a purely quantum universe would have an energy density of zero, since nothing would have localised position. That’s bizarre.

Beyond this is the even deeper question of how the universe came to be classical at all, given that cosmologists would have us believe that the big bang was a quantum process. Fields suggests that it is the interaction between the cosmic microwave background and the rest of the universe that causes the quantum nature of the universe to decohere and become classical.

Perhaps. What is all too clear is that there are fundamental and fascinating problems in cosmology — and the role that information plays in reality.

Ref: arxiv.org/abs/1502.03424 : Is Dark Energy An Artifact Of Decoherence?

The Idea of a Multiversum – Logics, Cosmology, Politics (Backdoor Broadcasting Company)

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The Centre for Research in Modern European Philosophy (CRMEP) and the London Graduate School in collaboration with Art and Philosophy at Central Saint Martins present:

A Lecture of the Centre for Research in Modern European Philosophy’s 20th Anniversary Public Lecture Series, in association with the London Graduate School.

Professor Etienne Balibar (CRMEP, Kingston University/Columbia University, NY) – The Idea of a Multiversum – Logics, Cosmology, Politics

TALK

Brazil announces hotline to help fight fan violence (AP)

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Brazil announces hotline to help fight fan violence

By TALES AZZONI

February 13, 2015 1:07 PM

Brazil Fan Violence

In this March 22, 2009, file photo, police approach Santos soccer fans to break up a fight with fans from the opposing team, the Corinthians, at a Sao Paulo state championship soccer game in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Brazil is dealing with another wave of fan violence just weeks into the new 2015 football season, exposing the continued failure of club officials and local authorities to eradicate the decades-long problem. This year it didn’t take long for Brazilian football to start making headlines for the wrong reasons _ a 16-year-old boy was shot to death after a match. A goalkeeper was injured by fans of Brazil’s most popular club. Supporters of one of the nation’s most successful teams were ambushed inside a subway station. A confrontation between fan groups and police turned supporters away from a game in one of the nation’s most modern venues. (AP Photo/Andre Penner, File)

SAO PAULO (AP) — The Brazilian government is creating a hotline to help fight a wave of fan violence that has brought unwanted attention to local football just weeks into the new season.

The government will also create a nationwide registry of the fan groups who are considered to be at the root of fan violence in the land of football.

The announcement by Brazil’s new sports minister came after a meeting with representatives of the National Association of Fan Groups, which was recently created to improve the dialogue with local authorities and the government.

The hotline will allow the population to denounce fans committing crimes or engaging in violence.

“Fan groups are part of a cultural manifestation and it’s important that they are preserved,” said Sports Minister George Hilton, who took office this year. “But they can’t have members engaging in criminal acts. Fans are important in sports and they need to be protected from bad elements.”

Fan violence is endemic in Brazil, with authorities and club officials historically failing to find solutions to eradicate the problem.

Less than a month into this football season, there have been several cases of violence already — a 16-year-old boy was shot to death during a scuffle between rival fan groups and police after a match; a goalkeeper was injured in his changing room by invading rival fans; supporters were ambushed by a rival group inside a subway station; fans were turned away from a match after a confrontation between fan groups and authorities outside a stadium.

The sports ministry said Brazil has about 1.5 million people linked to fan groups, so it’s important to keep track of them with a nationwide registry. All of the country’s most popular clubs have two or three organized fan groups. Many are partly financed by the clubs themselves, receiving free tickets and free trips to away games.

Authorities in the past tried to ban the most violent groups, but they kept coming back through legal loopholes.

In addition to preventing violence, the government also wants to use the registry to offer social services and educational projects focused on the fans.

A similar registry has been in place in states such as Sao Paulo, but fan violence continued to be a problem.

Hilton is expected to meet with club representatives next week to continue discussing the subject of fan violence.

Why Communicating About Climate Change Is so Difficult: It’s ‘The Elephant We’re All Inside of’ (Huffington Post)

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Jim Pierobon

Posted: 02/05/2015 8:48 pm EST Updated: 02/05/2015 8:59 pm EST

How stakeholders communicate about climate change has long been framed by who’s doing the framing as much, or more so, than the information being communicated. So I am forever curious how various stakeholders — believers, skeptics and deniers alike — are talking about it and who, if anybody, is “moving the needle” in either direction.

One of the most salient and recent inputs to the climate communications conundrum is Don’t Even Think About It — Why Our Brains Are Wired To Ignore Climate Change, by George Marshall in Oxford, England.

Marshall’s work deserves to be spotlighted for how it illuminates why skeptics and deniers alike will not be moved to engage in thoughtful exchanges unless those communicating respect certain tenets of what academic and nonprofit research are finding.

Marshall draws on the efforts of the climate information network (COIN) he co-founded along with research by two leading university-based centers: the Project on Climate Change Communications at Yale University in Princeton, NJ and the Center for Climate Change Communications at George Mason University in Fairfax, VA.

George Marshall is the co-founder of the Climate Outreach and Information Network, a nonprofit organization that specializes in public communication around climate change.

Marshall also taps into the works of authorities who’ve written and/or spoken extensively about climate change, such as Harvard Professor of Psychology Daniel Gilbert, GOP pollster Frank Luntz, Princeton Psychology and Public Affairs Professor Daniel Kahneman, former South Carolina Congressman Bob Inglis, Associate Professor of Sociology at University of Oregon Kari Norgaard and ABC-TV network correspondent Bill Blakemore.

Perhaps it would behoove those preparing for the upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties, aka COP21, in Paris November 30 – December 11, 2015 to heed much of what Marshall and other top-tier researchers are finding and sharing if they are serious about forging a legally binding and universal agreement on climate.

Here is my synthesis of the most illuminating take-a-ways from Marshall’s book. I offer it as a checklist with which to gauge climate communications efforts, regardless of which — if any — side of the issue you’re on. Be sure to share your thoughts.

  • Perceptions are shaped by individual psychological coping mechanisms and the collective narratives that they shape with the people around them.
  • A compelling emotional story that speaks to peoples’ core values has more impact than rational scientific data such as hotter global temperatures and rising sea levels.
  • People’s social identity has an extraordinary hold over their behaviors and views.
  • Drawing too much attention to an undesirable norm (e.g. catastrophic weather) can seriously backfire.
  • In high-carbon societies, EVERYone has a strong reason to ignore the problem or to write their own alibi. What might work better are narratives based on cooperation, mutual interests and a common humanity.
  • The real story is about our fear, denial and struggle to accept our own responsibility. “Climate change isn’t the elephant in the room; it’s the elephant we’re all inside of,” said ABC’s Bill Blakemore.
  • Our brains are UNsuited to deal with climate change unless the threats are personal, abrupt, immoral and immediate. A distant, abstract and disputed threat does not have the necessary characteristics for seriously mobilizing public opinion.
  • Without a clear deadline for action, we create our own timeline. We do so in ways that remove the compulsion to act. We make it just current enough to accept that something needs to be done but put it just too far into the future to require immediate action.

We’d all benefit the most from: what models for communicating about climate change are working, and which ones are not?

  • The messenger is more important than the message. The messenger can be the most important — but also the weakest link — between scientific information and personal conviction. Building on that, to break the partisan “deadlock” and public disinterest starts, Marshall asserts educational efforts need to create the means for new messengers to be heard.
  • There may be lessons learned from the campaign by oil giant BP in the early 2000s offering person-on-the-street testimonials about the need to deal with climate change. Full disclosure: While a Senior Vice President of Public Affairs with Ogilvy Public Relations Worldwide from 2001-2006, I helped develop and execute elements of BP’s “Beyond Petroleum” campaign.
  • Until the economy is back on a strong growth track, climate change advocates will struggle to earn attention in their home countries as long as bread-and-butter ‘pocketbook’ issues are more important to an overwhelming majority of citizens.

See George Marshall in action from this recent interview on TalkingStickTV via YouTube.

While we’re on the subject, I recommend reading the excellent work by the MacArthur Foundation’s “Connecting on Climate” guide completed in 2014. It includes 10 principles for effective climate change communication based on research from various social science fields.

What to Call a Doubter of Climate Change? (New York Times)

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FEB. 12, 2015

The Aurora Australis glows over an emperor penguin colony at Atka Bay, Antarctica.Stefan Christmann/Corbis

The words are hurled around like epithets.

People who reject the findings of climate science are dismissed as “deniers” and “disinformers.” Those who accept the science are attacked as “alarmists” or “warmistas. ” The latter term, evoking the Sandinista revolutionaries of Nicaragua, is perhaps meant to suggest that the science is part of some socialist plot.

In the long-running political battles over climate change, the fight about what to call the various factions has been going on for a long time. Recently, though, the issue has taken a new turn, with a public appeal that has garnered 22,000 signatures and counting.

The petition asks the news media to abandon the most frequently used term for people who question climate science, “skeptic,” and call them “climate deniers” instead.

Climate scientists are among the most vocal critics of using the term “climate skeptic” to describe people who flatly reject their findings. They point out that skepticism is the very foundation of the scientific method. The modern consensus about the risks of climate change, they say, is based on evidence that has piled up over the course of decades and has been subjected to critical scrutiny every step of the way.

Drop into any climate science convention, in fact, and you will hear vigorous debate about the details of the latest studies. While they may disagree over the fine points, those same researchers are virtually unanimous in warning that society is running extraordinary risks by continuing to pump huge quantities of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

In other words, the climate scientists see themselves as the true skeptics, having arrived at a durable consensus about emissions simply because the evidence of risk has become overwhelming. And in this view, people who reject the evidence are phony skeptics, arguing their case by cherry-picking studies, manipulating data, and refusing to weigh the evidence as a whole.

The petition asking the media to drop the “climate skeptic” label began withMark B. Boslough, a physicist in New Mexico who grew increasingly annoyed by the term over several years. The phrase is wrong, he said, because “these people do not embrace the scientific method.”

Dr. Boslough is active in a group called the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry, which has long battled pseudoscience in all its forms. Late last year, he wrote a public letter on the issue, and dozens of scientists and science advocates associated with the committee quickly signed it. They include Bill Nye, of “Science Guy” fame, and Lawrence M. Krauss, the physicist and best-selling author.

A climate advocacy organization, Forecast the Facts, picked up on the letter and turned it into a petition. Once the signatures reach 25,000, the group intends to present a formal request to major news organizations to alter their terminology.

All of which raises an obvious question: If not “skeptic,” what should the opponents of climate science be called?

As a first step, it helps to understand why they so vigorously denounce the science. The opposition is coming from a certain faction of the political right. Many of these conservatives understand that since greenhouse emissions are caused by virtually every economic activity of modern society, they are likely to be reduced only by extensive government intervention in the market.

So casting doubt on the science is a way to ward off such regulation. This movement is mainly rooted in ideology, but much of the money to disseminate its writings comes from companies that profit from fossil fuels.

Despite their shared goal of opposing regulation, however, these opponents of climate science are not all of one mind in other respects, and thus no single term really fits them all.

Some make scientifically ludicrous claims, such as denying that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas or rejecting the idea that humans are responsible for its increase in the atmosphere. Others deny that Earth is actually warming, despite overwhelming evidence that it is, including the rapid melting of billions of tons of land ice all over the planet.

Yet the critics of established climate science also include a handful of people with credentials in atmospheric physics, and track records of publishing in the field. They acknowledge the heat-trapping powers of greenhouse gases, and they distance themselves from people who deny such basic points.

“For God’s sake, I can’t be lumped in with that crowd,” said Patrick J. Michaels, a former University of Virginia scientist employed by the libertarian Cato Institute in Washington.

Contrarian scientists like Dr. Michaels tend to argue that the warming will be limited, or will occur so gradually that people will cope with it successfully, or that technology will come along to save the day – or all of the above.

The contrarian scientists like to present these upbeat scenarios as the only plausible outcomes from runaway emissions growth. Mainstream scientists see them as being the low end of a range of possible outcomes that includes an alarming high end, and they say the only way to reduce the risks is to reduce emissions.

The dissenting scientists have been called “lukewarmers” by some, for their view that Earth will warm only a little. That is a term Dr. Michaels embraces. “I think it’s wonderful!” he said. He is working on a book, “The Lukewarmers’ Manifesto.”

When they publish in scientific journals, presenting data and arguments to support their views, these contrarians are practicing science, and perhaps the “skeptic” label is applicable. But not all of them are eager to embrace it.

“As far as I can tell, skepticism involves doubts about a plausible proposition,” another of these scientists, Richard S. Lindzen, told an audience a few years ago. “I think current global warming alarm does not represent a plausible proposition.”

Papers by Dr. Lindzen and others disputing the risks of global warming have fared poorly in the scientific literature, with mainstream scientists pointing out what they see as fatal errors. Nonetheless, these contrarian scientists testify before Congress and make statements inconsistent with the vast bulk of the scientific evidence, claiming near certainty that society is not running any risk worth worrying about.

It is perhaps no surprise that many environmentalists have started to call them deniers.

The scientific dissenters object to that word, claiming it is a deliberate attempt to link them to Holocaust denial. Some academics sharply dispute having any such intention, but others have started using the slightly softer word “denialist” to make the same point without stirring complaints about evoking the Holocaust.

Scientific denialism has crept into other aspects of modern life, of course, manifesting itself as creationism, anti-vaccine ideology and the opposition to genetically modified crops, among other doctrines.

To groups holding such views, “evidence just doesn’t matter any more,” said Riley E. Dunlap, a sociologist at Oklahoma State University. “It becomes possible to create an alternate reality.”

But Dr. Dunlap pointed out that the stakes with most of these issues are not as high as with climate-change denial, for the simple reason that the fate of the planet may hang in the balance.

New York Times: Those Who Deny Climate Science Are Not ‘Skeptics’ (Climate Progress)

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BY JOE ROMM POSTED ON FEBRUARY 13, 2015 AT 2:15 PM (Climate Progress)

“New York Times: Those Who Deny Climate Science Are Not ‘Skeptics’”

shutterstock_196423220

CREDIT: SHUTTERSTOCK

The New York Times has an excellent piece on why the people who spread disinformation about climate change are not “skeptics” — and why it’s no surprise they are called climate science “deniers.”

Now that the world’s leading scientists and governments have found that human-caused climate change is already causing serious harm on every continent, denying the grave risk posed by unchecked carbon pollution is no longer an abstract or theoretical issue. If we keep listening to those spreading disinformation, a livable climate will be destroyed and billions of people will needlessly suffer.

And yet we continue to see the sad and ultimately self-destructive spectacle whereby “contrarian scientists testify before Congress and make statements inconsistent with the vast bulk of the scientific evidence, claiming near certainty that society is not running any risk worth worrying about.” So as the Times explains:

It is perhaps no surprise that many environmentalists have started to call them deniers.

And it’s also no surprise that four dozen leading scientists and science journalists/communicators issued a statement in December urging the media to “Please stop using the word ‘skeptic’ to describe deniers” of climate science. The impetus for the Times piece is that letter, written by physicist Mark Boslough, and signed by such luminaries as Nobel laureate Sir Harold Kroto, Douglas Hofstadter, physicist Lawrence Krauss, and Bill Nye “the Science Guy.” Full list here.

The disinformers are not skeptics. “Skepticism is the very foundation of the scientific method,” as the Times explains. “Proper skepticism promotes scientific inquiry, critical investigation, and the use of reason in examining controversial and extraordinary claims,” as the 2014 letter reads. “It is foundational to the scientific method. Denial, on the other hand, is the a priori rejection of ideas without objective consideration.”

The author of the Times piece, reporter Justin Gillis, points out that the denial “movement” — those who “so vigorously denounce the science” — is “mainly rooted in ideology, but much of the money to disseminate its writings comes from companies that profit from fossil fuels.” These people tend to be conservatives because “Many of these conservatives understand that since greenhouse emissions are caused by virtually every economic activity of modern society, they are likely to be reduced only by extensive government intervention in the market.” Precisely.

Now the climate science deniers, who generate a lot of phony objections to real science, also like to generate phony outrage when anyone has the nerve to explain that they are not skeptics. One of the deniers with the longest history of being debunked by scientists, Dr. Roy Spencer, responds on his website to Gillis’s use of the word “deniers” by claiming:

You know — as evil as those who deny the Holocaust. (Yeah, we get the implication.)

He then goes on to malign the scientific character of Dr. Richard Lindzen (a Jew who is not entirely pleased with misplaced Holocaust imagery) because the majority of scientific opinion runs contrary to Dr. Lindzen….

Except that isn’t the implication of the word “denier,” which simply means “one who denies.”

If the point of the word was to link someone to Holocaust deniers, then why would Lindzen himself tell the BBC back in 2010 (audio here):

“I actually like ‘denier.’ That’s closer than skeptic.”

D’oh.

It’s actually quite common for deniers to embrace the term — as the National Center for Science Education explained in their 2012 post, “Why Is It Called Denial?” Even disinformers associated with the beyond-hard-core extremists at the Heartland Institute like the term (video here). Heck, some even sing, “I’m a Denier!”

Spencer, the Charlie Sheen of deniers, actually went so far on his website last year as to write an entire post explaining why from now on he will refer to politicians and scientists who use the term “deniers” as “global warming Nazis”!

I do think that undefined labels are always subject to criticism and out-of-context attacks, especially by people who spread disinformation for a living, so it is a good idea to define one’s terms. As I’ve written, climate science deniers are nothing like Holocaust deniers. Holocaust deniers are denying an established fact from the past. If the media or politicians or the public took them at all seriously, I suppose it might increase the chances of a future Holocaust. But, in fact, they are very marginalized, and are inevitably attacked and criticized widely whenever they try to spread their disinformation, so they have no significant impact on society.

The climate science deniers, however, are very different and far more worrisome. They are not marginalized, but rather very well-funded and often treated quite seriously by the media. They are trying to persuade people not to take action on a problem that has not yet become catastrophic, but which will certainly do so if we listen to them and delay acting much longer.

In fact, while we have high confidence that we could avoid the worst impacts if we act to sharply cut carbon pollution ASAP, we now know that if we continue to listen to the deniers, for even a couple more decades, we can expect billions of people to suffer from multiple, catastrophic climate impacts that are not merely very long-lasting and potentially beyond adaptation — but that are “irreversible” on a time scale of centuries. And we also know that action now would be super cheap.

The American Association for the Advancement of Science — the world’s largest general scientific society explained in a 2014 report: “Physicians, cardiovascular scientists, public health experts and others all agree smoking causes cancer. And this consensus among the health community has convinced most Americans that the health risks from smoking are real. A similar consensus now exists among climate scientists, a consensus that maintains climate change is happening, and human activity is the cause.”

The media doesn’t write about “tobacco science skeptics” or even bother quoting people who deny the dangerous health consequences of cigarette smoking any more. It’s time for the media to treat climate science deniers the same way.

Anne Burns: The Virtual and the Visual in Ethnography (Medium)

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Fox House, on the outskirts of Sheffield.

Feb 11, 2015

The ethnography I will be conducting for “Picturing the Social’ will be looking at practices of sharing photographs on social media. So is this to be a visual ethnography? A virtual ethnography? Or some kind of combination? Both of these approaches entail different theoretical and methodological models (Ardévol, 2012), which I will now briefly consider, along with outlining where this ethnography is situated in relation. Looking at these fields separately is not to suggest that they do not overlap — on the contrary, I believe that the visual and the virtual share many similarities. Photography is very much a social technology, in that images are typically created with the intention of sharing (Bourdieu, 1990), to the extent that photography has been termed the ‘original’ social media.

Virtual

The Internet can be used as a means for collecting data, or as the topic of research in itself (Markham and Baym, 2009). Much of the discussion of virtual ethnography considers this first function, in which the Internet is used to access participants. Studies of computer-mediated communication, on the other hand, focus on the specific features of online spaces, such as virtual worlds and games. This particular ethnography will be a combination of both, in that I am not using social media simply to find people to observe, but rather am interested specifically in their online practices. Therefore this is an ethnography of the virtual, rather than an ethnography which makes use of the virtual.

One of my areas of interest relates to the relationship between online and offline space, and the collapse of the division between the two. For example, how does the online construction of notions of Sheffield affect subjects’ experience of it offline? For some members of the social media groups I am considering, their predominant experience of Sheffield is now online, as they live elsewhere — how perhaps should this be conceptualised in regards to the online/offline divide? Additionally, not all online spaces are to be conceptualised alike, as the aims and objectives of virtual worlds, social networks and discussion forums are markedly different from one another. The photography groups I am looking to study as part of this ethnography are communities of interest, in which various motivations — including sharing memories, discussing contemporary issues and soliciting feedback on creative practice — must be explored and understood as affordances of these online spaces.

Internet ethnography offers a useful opportunity to participate in the same settings as participants, and to use the same tools for interactions and expression. This parity of access means that ethnography of online spaces is “meaningfully different” from the study of offline social practices (Kozinets, 2010: 5). Hine conceptualises this difference in terms of an emphasis on flow and connectivity, in contrast to ethnography’s prior focus on location and boundaries (2000). O’Reilly similarly states that virtual ethnography is challenging assumptions of what constitutes a ‘field site’, in that “instead of thinking in terms of places or locations, our Internet ethnographer looks to connections between things” (O’Reilly, 2009: 217). Pink also stresses the importance of considering connections and the “potential forms of relatedness” constituted online, in which online and offline materials and localities “become interwoven in everyday and research narratives” (Pink, 2012). I am particularly interested to explore how theories of place and space will be useful for this ethnography, in that the groups’ focus on Sheffield as a physical and conceptual place is mediated and constituted through online spaces. How do these different notions of place and space entangle, and how do they affect each other in order to create new notions of what constitutes Sheffield and people’s relationship to it? My early observations have already yielded an interesting example of the online representation of a sensory experience of Sheffield as locality and as history — a video uploaded to one Sheffield-themed social media group documents a walk through the post-industrial landscape, in which the participant draws attention to the shift from Sheffield’s identity as a steel working city, to a collection of vacant lots and empty office buildings. The online space is therefore used to provide not just a commentary on contemporary politics, but also to capture a physical experience, and an emotional reaction to it.

Visual

Ethnographies frequently use participant-generated photographs to explore the perspectives of those involved, enabling them to ‘speak’ through images (see Mitchell, 2011). As I am not inviting participants to produce materials for this project, but using those that they have made already, this approach is not applicable here. Although I will be considering people’s use of photography to discuss issues that are of relevance to them — relating to history, sport, wildlife, weather and so on — my aim is not to use photography to access those beliefs, but rather to explore the specific role of photographs in this process. Much as I stressed above regarding the virtual, this is not an ethnography that uses the visual, but is rather an ethnography of the visual.

I therefore similarly will not be using images within this ethnography in order to supplement my findings, or to ‘show’ something under the pretence of unmediated communication. This function, in which images act as a kind of supporting evidence, is problematic for numerous reasons, in that it assumes that images can be regarded as objective, but only fragmentary, adjuncts to text. As this ethnography is focused upon the practice and discussion of photography, such an approach to the visual would be inappropriate, as it fails to acknowledge that images must be studied as cultural objects in their own right. Therefore this ethnography of the visual will consider how images — at the level of objects as well as the production of objects — function within broader social relations (Pink, 2012: 5). As such, I will need to employ a range of theoretical approaches, which explore photography as a social process, as a form of identity negotiation, and as a phenomenon that continually remakes its own cultural circumstances of production.

Pauwels (2012) provides a particularly useful overview of conducting visual research, in which the status of the materials, and the extent to which they matter, is of primary concern. This is one of my main topics of investigation — not so much what images are of, but why they matter to people, what they enable viewers to do, say and think, and why they have been shared in the first place. For me, this is the key concern of contemporary visual research: what is it that makes social media photography — from the taking of snaps on Snapchat, to the sharing of photographs on Flickr — so important?

It will be my aim, therefore, to study how the visual and the virtual combine in the notion of ‘photographic sharing’. In particular, the social media communities in which these photographs are circulated will offer an important means for studying how notions of place are negotiated and constituted through the co-presence that is facilitated by looking at images online.

Ardévol, E. (2012) Virtual/Visual Ethnography: Methodological Crossroads at the Intersection of Visual and Internet Research. In: Pink, S. (2012) Advances in Visual Methodology. London: Sage.

Bourdieu, P. (1990) Photography: A Middle-Brow Art. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. http://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=2477

Hine, C. (2000) Virtual Ethnography. London: Sage. http://www.uk.sagepub.com/books/Book207267?siteId=sage-uk&prodTypes=any&q=virtual+ethnography&fs=1

Kozinets, R. V. (2010) Netnography: Doing Ethnographic Research Online. London: Sage. http://www.uk.sagepub.com/books/Book233748?siteId=sage-uk&prodTypes=any&q=netnography&fs=1

Markham, A. N. & Baym, N. K. (2009) Internet Inquiry: Conversations about Method. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. http://www.uk.sagepub.com/books/Book226985?siteId=sage-uk&prodTypes=any&q=internet+inquiry&fs=1

Mitchell, C. (2011) Doing Visual Research. London: Sage. http://www.uk.sagepub.com/books/Book231677?siteId=sage-uk&prodTypes=any&q=doing+visual+research&fs=1

O’Reilly, K. (2009) Key Concepts in Ethnography. London: Sage. http://www.uk.sagepub.com/booksProdDesc.nav?prodId=Book229834

Pauwels, L. (2012) Contemplating the State of Visual Research. In: Pink, S. (2012) Advances in Visual Methodology. London: Sage.

Pink, S. (2012) Advances in Visual Methodology. London: Sage. http://www.uk.sagepub.com/booksProdDesc.nav?prodId=Book235866

‘Picturing the Social: Transforming our Understanding of Images in Social Media and Big Data research’ is an 18-month research project that started in September 2014 and is based at the University of Sheffield in the United Kingdom. It is funded through an ESRC’s Transformative Research grant and is focused on transforming the social science research landscape by carving out a more central place for image research within the emerging fields of social media and Big Data research. The project aims to better understand the huge volumes of images that are now routinely shared on social media and what this means for society. This project involves an interdisciplinary team of seven researchers from four universities as well as industry with expertise in: Media and Communication Studies (Farida Vis and Anne Burns, University of Sheffield), Visual Culture (Simon Faulkner and Jim Aulich, Manchester School of Art), Software Studies and Sociology (Olga Goriunova, Warwick University), Computer and Information Science (Francesco D’Orazio, Pulsar and Mike Thelwall, University of Wolverhampton). The project is part of the Visual Social Media Lab.

Panel Urges Research on Geoengineering as a Tool Against Climate Change (New York Times)

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By FEB. 10, 2015

Piles at a CCI Energy Solutions coal handling plant in Shelbiana, Ky. Geoengineering proposals might counteract the effects of climate change that are the result of burning fossils fuels, such as coal. Luke Sharrett/Getty Images 

With the planet facing potentially severe impacts from global warming in coming decades, a government-sponsored scientific panel on Tuesday called for more research on geoengineering — technologies to deliberately intervene in nature to counter climate change.

The panel said the research could include small-scale outdoor experiments, which many scientists say are necessary to better understand whether and how geoengineering would work.

Some environmental groups and others say that such projects could have unintended damaging effects, and could set society on an unstoppable path to full-scale deployment of the technologies.

But the National Academy of Sciences panel said that with proper governance, which it said needed to be developed, and other safeguards, such experiments should pose no significant risk.

In two widely anticipated reports, the panel — which was supported by NASA and other federal agencies, including what the reports described as the “U.S. intelligence community” — noted that drastically reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases was by far the best way to mitigate the effects of a warming planet.

A device being developed by a company called Global Thermostat, is made to capture carbon dioxide from the air. This may be one solution to counteract climate change.Henry Fountain/The New York Times 

But the panel, in making the case for more research into geoengineering, said, “It may be prudent to examine additional options for limiting the risks from climate change.”

“The committee felt that the need for information at this point outweighs the need for shoving this topic under the rug,” Marcia K. McNutt, chairwoman of the panel and the editor in chief of the journal Science, said at a news conference in Washington.

Geoengineering options generally fall into two categories: capturing and storing some of the carbon dioxide that has already been emitted so that the atmosphere traps less heat, or reflecting more sunlight away from the earth so there is less heat to start with. The panel issued separate reports on each.

The panel said that while the first option, called carbon dioxide removal, was relatively low risk, it was expensive, and that even if it was pursued on a planetwide scale, it would take many decades to have a significant impact on the climate. But the group said research was needed to develop efficient and effective methods to both remove the gas and store it so it remains out of the atmosphere indefinitely.

The second option, called solar radiation management, is far more controversial. Most discussions of the concept focus on the idea of dispersing sulfates or other chemicals high in the atmosphere, where they would reflect sunlight, in some ways mimicking the effect of a large volcanic eruption.

The process would be relatively inexpensive and should quickly lower temperatures, but it would have to be repeated indefinitely and would do nothing about another carbon dioxide-related problem: the acidification of oceans.

This approach might also have unintended effects on weather patterns around the world — bringing drought to once-fertile regions, for example. Or it might be used unilaterally as a weapon by governments or even extremely wealthy individuals.

Opponents of geoengineering have long argued that even conducting research on the subject presents a moral hazard that could distract society from the necessary task of reducing the emissions that are causing warming in the first place.

“A geoengineering ‘technofix’ would take us in the wrong direction,” Lisa Archer, food and technology program director of the environmental group Friends of the Earth, said in a statement. “Real climate justice requires dealing with root causes of climate change, not launching risky, unproven and unjust schemes.”

But the panel said that society had “reached a point where the severity of the potential risks from climate change appears to outweigh the potential risks from the moral hazard” of conducting research.

Ken Caldeira, a geoengineering researcher at the Carnegie Institution for Science and a member of the committee, said that while the panel felt that it was premature to deploy any sunlight-reflecting technologies today, “it’s worth knowing more about them,” including any problems that might make them unworkable.

“If there’s a real showstopper, we should know about it now,” Dr. Caldeira said, rather than discovering it later when society might be facing a climate emergency and desperate for a solution.

Dr. Caldeira is part of a small community of scientists who have researched solar radiation management concepts. Almost all of the research has been done on computers, simulating the effects of the technique on the climate. One attempt in Britain in 2011 to conduct an outdoor test of some of the engineering concepts provoked a public outcry. The experiment was eventually canceled.

David Keith, a researcher at Harvard University who reviewed the reports before they were released, said in an interview, “I think it’s terrific that they made a stronger call than I expected for research, including field research.” Along with other researchers, Dr. Keith has proposed a field experiment to test the effect of sulfate chemicals on atmospheric ozone.

Unlike some European countries, the United States has never had a separate geoengineering research program. Dr. Caldeira said establishing a separate program was unlikely, especially given the dysfunction in Congress. But he said that because many geoengineering research proposals might also help in general understanding of the climate, agencies that fund climate research might start to look favorably upon them.

Dr. Keith agreed, adding that he hoped the new reports would “break the logjam” and “give program managers the confidence they need to begin funding.”

At the news conference, Waleed Abdalati, a member of the panel and a professor at the University of Colorado, said that geoengineering research would have to be subject to governance that took into account not just the science, “but the human ramifications, as well.”

Dr. Abdalati said that, in general, the governance needed to precede the research. “A framework that addresses what kinds of activities would require governance is a necessary first step,” he said.

Raymond Pierrehumbert, a geophysicist at the University of Chicago and a member of the panel, said in an interview that while he thought that a research program that allowed outdoor experiments was potentially dangerous, “the report allows for enough flexibility in the process to follow that it could be decided that we shouldn’t have a program that goes beyond modeling.”

Above all, he said, “it’s really necessary to have some kind of discussion among broader stakeholders, including the public, to set guidelines for an allowable zone for experimentation.”

A version of this article appears in print on February 11, 2015, on page A17 of the New York edition with the headline: Panel Urges Research on Geoengineering as a Tool Against Climate Change.

The Risks of Climate Engineering (New York Times)

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By CLIVE HAMILTONFEB. 12, 2015

Sarah Jacoby 

THE Republican Party has long resisted action on climate change, but now that much of the electorate wants something done, it needs to find a way out of the hole it has dug for itself. A committee appointed by the National Research Council may just have handed the party a ladder.

In a two-volume report, the council is recommending that the federal government fund a research program into geoengineering as a response to a warming globe. The study could be a watershed moment because reports from the council, an arm of the National Academies that provides advice on science and technology, are often an impetus for new scientific research programs.

Sometimes known as “Plan B,” geoengineering covers a variety of technologies aimed at deliberate, large-scale intervention in the climate system to counter global warming.

Despairing at global foot-dragging, some climate scientists now believe that a turn to Plan B is inevitable. They see it as inscribed in the logic of the situation. The council’s study begins with the assertion that the “likelihood of eventually considering last-ditch efforts” to address climate destabilization grows every year.

The report is balanced in its assessment of the science. Yet by bringing geoengineering from the fringes of the climate debate into the mainstream, it legitimizes a dangerous approach.

Beneath the identifiable risks is not only a gut reaction to the hubris of it all — the idea that humans could set out to regulate the Earth system, perhaps in perpetuity — but also to what it says about where we are today. As the committee’s chairwoman, Marcia McNutt, told The Associated Press: The public should read this report “and say, ‘This is downright scary.’ And they should say, ‘If this is our Hail Mary, what a scary, scary place we are in.’ ”

Even scarier is the fact that, while most geoengineering boosters see these technologies as a means of buying time for the world to get its act together, others promote them as a substitute for cutting emissions. In 2008, Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker, later Republican presidential candidate and an early backer of geoengineering, said: “Instead of penalizing ordinary Americans, we would have an option to address global warming by rewarding scientific invention,” adding: “Bring on the American ingenuity.”

The report, considerably more cautious, describes geoengineering as one element of a “portfolio of responses” to climate change and examines the prospects of two approaches — removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and enveloping the planet in a layer of sulfate particles to reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface.

At the same time, the council makes clear that there is “no substitute for dramatic reductions in the emissions” of greenhouse gases to slow global warming and acidifying oceans.

The lowest-risk strategies for removing carbon dioxide are “currently limited by cost and at present cannot achieve the desired result of removing climatically important amounts,” the report said. On the second approach, the council said that at present it was “opposed to climate-altering deployment” of technologies to reflect radiation back into space.

Still, the council called for research programs to fill the gaps in our knowledge on both approaches, evoking a belief that we can understand enough about how the Earth system operates in order to take control of it.

Expressing interest in geoengineering has been taboo for politicians worried about climate change for fear they would be accused of shirking their responsibility to cut carbon emissions. Yet in some congressional offices, interest in geoengineering is strong. And Congress isn’t the only place where there is interest. Russia in 2013 unsuccessfully sought to insert a pro-geoengineering statement into the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Early work on geoengineering has given rise to one of the strangest paradoxes in American politics: enthusiasm for geoengineering from some who have attacked the idea of human-caused global warming. The Heartland Institute, infamous for its billboard comparing those who support climate science to the Unabomber, Theodore J. Kaczynski, featured an article in one of its newsletters from 2007 describing geoengineering as a “practical, cost-effective global warming strategy.”

Some scholars associated with conservative think tanks like the Hoover Institution and the Hudson Institute have written optimistically about geoengineering.

Oil companies, too, have dipped their toes into the geoengineering waters with Shell, for instance, having funded research into a scheme to put lime into seawater so it absorbs more carbon dioxide.

With half of Republican voters favoring government action to tackle global warming, any Republican administration would be tempted by the technofix to beat all technofixes.

For some, instead of global warming’s being proof of human failure, engineering the climate would represent the triumph of human ingenuity. While climate change threatens to destabilize the system, geoengineering promises to protect it. If there is such a thing as a right-wing technology, geoengineering is it.

President Obama has been working assiduously to persuade the world that the United States is at last serious about Plan A — winding back its greenhouse gas emissions. The suspicions of much of the world would be reignited if the United States were the first major power to invest heavily in Plan B.

Clive Hamilton is a professor of public ethics at Charles Sturt University in Australia and the author, most recently, of “Earthmasters: The Dawn of the Age of Climate Engineering.”

A version of this op-ed appears in print on February 12, 2015, on page A29 of the New York edition with the headline: The Risks of Climate Engineering.

Aconselhado por espírito indígena, Pezão garante que choverá no Rio (Época)

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Relatório do Cacique Cobra Coral, enviado ao governador do Rio, garante normalização dos reservatórios do Rio até maio; presidente Dilma já foi informada

CRISTINA GRILLO
13/02/2015 19h11 – Atualizado em 13/02/2015 20h35

Governador do Rio de Janeiro Luiz Fernando Pezão (Foto: Pedro Farina)

Governador do Rio de Janeiro Luiz Fernando Pezão (Foto: Pedro Farina)

Celebrai, povo fluminense: vem água por aí. Abram as torneiras, durmam no chuveiro e caprichem no banho do carro. Está liberado até encher a piscina de plástico azul das crianças. Basta comungar da mesma confiança que o governador do Rio, Luiz Fernando Pezão. Ele assegura à ÉPOCA, com tranquilidade budista, que racionamento e rodízio são palavras do passado. Cálculos de volume morto e obras na rede de águas são coisas de políticos sem fé. A convicção de Pezão é transcendental: vem dos céus – embora não de São Pedro. Choverá, ora, porque a médium Adelaide Scritori, a pedido de Pezão, consultou o espírito do Cacique Cobra Coral – e o Cacique mandou dizer que a água não tarda e chegará abundante. Quem é Pezão para discutir com o espírito do Cacique?

O último relato do Cacique veio por email – não do além, mas por meio de Adelaide. No documento, enviado no dia 28 de janeiro, garante-se  que “tudo o que faltou em dezembro e janeiro virá em fevereiro, março e abril”. O email, que afastou da cabeça do governador qualquer ideia de racionamento, foi repassado em seguida, como de costume, a Dilma Rousseff. “A presidente se diverte com os emails do cacique. Riu muito de um que afirmava que o culpado da crise hídrica e energética era o Lobão [Edison Lobão, ex-ministro de Minas e Energia]”, disse Pezão à ÉPOCA em seu gabinete, no Palácio Guanabara. Dilma riu, mas Pezão leva os conselhos do Cacique a sério.

Fundação Cacique Cobra Coral (Foto: reprodução)

Imagem do site da Fundação Cacique Cobra Coral (Foto: reprodução)

A médium Adelaide lidera a Fundação Cacique Cobra Coral. Ela afirma incorporar o espírito do Cacique – um meteorologista sobrenatural, com capacidade para segurar uma tempestade aqui, mandar uma chuvinha lá e, graças a esse dom, fazer com que prefeituras e governos contratem a instituição para garantir seus serviços. No relatório que Pezão encaminhou a Dilma há, no entanto, um alerta para a possibilidade de temporais no Rio. Até junho, diz o Cacique, há o risco de chover, em apenas um dia, a quantidade esperada para um mês inteiro. “É preciso ficar alerta para o excesso de precipitação numa mesma localidade, como a zona norte”, avisa a entidade. Preparem a arca de Noé.

Pezão recebe com regularidade os informes que o espírito do Cacique envia à Prefeitura do Rio – o governo do Estado, afirma, não tem contrato com a fundação; a prefeitura, sim. Mas a relação de Pezão com o Cacique é antiga. Vem desde 1997, quando Pezão era prefeito de Piraí, município a 90 quilômetros da capital. “Eu sempre gostei de fazer festas na rua e conversava com eles para ter tempo bom. Chegava o dia da festa, chovia em todos os municípios vizinhos, e Piraí ficava sequinha, sequinha”, contou o governador. Com a prefeitura do Rio, os acordos da entidade mediúnica vêm dos tempos em que Cesar Maia era prefeito, no início de 2001. Eduardo Paes ameaçou romper com a fundação quando tomou posse em seu primeiro mandato, em 2009. Mas as previsões de temporais na noite do réveillon o fizeram rever a decisão. Não choveu e, desde então, além de satélites e outros instrumentos de alta tecnologia, o Rio conta com a expertise do cacique para ajudar nas previsões meteorológicas.

Mesmo sem contrato com o governo do Estado, a Fundação Cacique Cobra Coral parece estar se esforçando para garantir a normalização dos reservatórios. No domingo, dia 8, a médium Adelaide sofreu um acidente de carro na cidade de Paraibuna, em São Paulo. Ela vinha de Minas para o Rio de Janeiro, acompanhando o curso do rio Paraíba do Sul para avaliar, in loco, o nível dos reservatórios. O carro onde estava capotou três vezes e caiu no rio. Adelaide só teve escoriações leves. “Ela estava vendo tudo para informar ao cacique”, disse Pezão, que conecta seu celular para mostrar algumas fotos do acidente. Cair no rio não seria um mau sinal? “Não! Já está tudo certo, vai voltar a chover”, afirmou o confiante governador.

Das amplas janelas do gabinete de Pezão vê-se o jardim, espetacular, reformulado pelo paisagista francês Paul Villon no início do século XX. No meio do jardim, o chafariz de Netuno jorra, voluptuoso, litros e mais litros de água. “Mas é água de reuso”, apressa-se o governador a explicar, ao ouvir a pergunta sobre o desperdício –mesmo com toda a garantia dada pelo cacique de que o Rio está livre de problemas. Mas, pelo sim, pelo não, no dia seguinte o chafariz estava desligado.