Arquivo da tag: Previsão

Make climate change a priority (Washington Post)

Graphic: A new report prepared for the World Bank finds that the planet is on a path to warming 4 degrees by the end of the century, with devastating consequences. Click on the infographic to go to the World Bank for more information.

By Jim Yong Kim, Published: January 24

Jim Yong Kim is president of the World Bank.

The weather in Washington has been like a roller coaster this January. Yes, there has been a deep freeze this week, but it was the sudden warmth earlier in the month that was truly alarming. Flocks of birds — robins, wrens, cardinals and even blue jays – swarmed bushes with berries, eating as much as they could. Runners and bikers wore shorts and T-shirts. People worked in their gardens as if it were spring.

The signs of global warming are becoming more obvious and more frequent. A glut of extreme weather conditions is appearing globally. And the average temperature in the United States last year was the highest ever recorded.

As economic leaders gathered in Davos this week for the World Economic Forum, much of the conversation was about finances. But climate change should also be at the top of our agendas, because global warming imperils all of the development gains we have made.If there is no action soon, the future will become bleak. The World Bank Groupreleased a reportin November that concluded that the world could warm by 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius) by the end of this century if concerted action is not taken now.

A world that warm means seas would rise 1.5 to 3 feet, putting at risk hundreds of millions of city dwellers globally. It would mean that storms once dubbed “once in a century” would become common, perhaps occurring every year. And it would mean that much of the United States, from Los Angeles to Kansas to the nation’s capital, would feel like an unbearable oven in the summer.

My wife and I have two sons, ages 12 and 3. When they grow old, this could be the world they inherit. That thought alone makes me want to be part of a global movement that acts now.

Even as global climate negotiations continue, there is a need for urgent action outside the conventions. People everywhere must focus on where we will get the most impact to reduce emissions and build resilience in cities, communities and countries.

Strong leadership must come from the six big economies that account for two-thirds of the energy sector’s global carbon dioxide emissions. President Obama’s reference in his inaugural address this week to addressing climate and energy could help reignite this critical conversation domestically and abroad.

The world’s top priority must be to get finance flowing and get prices right on all aspects of energy costs to support low-carbon growth. Achieving a predictable price on carbon that accurately reflects real environmental costs is key to delivering emission reductions at scale. Correct energy pricing can also provide incentives for investments in energy efficiency and cleaner energy technologies.

A second immediate step is to end harmful fuel subsidies globally, which could lead to a 5 percent fall in emissions by 2020. Countries spend more than $500 billion annually in fossil-fuel subsidies and an additional $500 billion in other subsidies, often related to agriculture and water, that are, ultimately, environmentally harmful. That trillion dollars could be put to better use for the jobs of the future, social safety nets or vaccines.

A third focus is on cities. The largest 100 cities that contribute 67 percent of energy-related emissions are both the center of innovation for green growth and the most vulnerable to climate change. We have seen great leadership, for example, in New York and Rio de Janeiro on low-carbon growth and tackling practices that fuel climate change.

At the World Bank Group, through the $7 billion-plus Climate Investment Funds, we are managing forests, spreading solar energy and promoting green expansion for cities, all with a goal of stopping global warming. We also are in the midst of a major reexamination of our own practices and policies.

Just as the Bretton Woods institutions were created to prevent a third world war, the world needs a bold global approach to help avoid the climate catastrophe it faces today. The World Bank Group is ready to work with others to meet this challenge. With every investment we make and every action we take, we should have in mind the threat of an even warmer world and the opportunity of inclusive green growth.

After the hottest year on record in the United States, a year in which Hurricane Sandycaused billions of dollars in damagerecord droughts scorched farmland in the Midwest and our organization reported that the planet could become more than 7 degrees warmer, what are we waiting for? We need to get serious fast. The planet, our home, can’t wait.

Scientists Underestimated Potential for Tohoku Earthquake: Now What? (Science Daily)

Jan. 23, 2013 — The massive Tohoku, Japan, earthquake in 2011 and Sumatra-Andaman superquake in 2004 stunned scientists because neither region was thought to be capable of producing a megathrust earthquake with a magnitude exceeding 8.4.

Seismograph. (Credit: © huebi71 / Fotolia)

Now earthquake scientists are going back to the proverbial drawing board and admitting that existing predictive models looking at maximum earthquake size are no longer valid.

In a new analysis published in the journal Seismological Research Letters, a team of scientists led by Oregon State University’s Chris Goldfinger describes how past global estimates of earthquake potential were constrained by short historical records and even shorter instrumental records. To gain a better appreciation for earthquake potential, he says, scientists need to investigate longer paleoseismic records.

“Once you start examining the paleoseismic and geodetic records, it becomes apparent that there had been the kind of long-term plate deformation required by a giant earthquake such as the one that struck Japan in 2011,” Goldfinger said. “Paleoseismic work has confirmed several likely predecessors to Tohoku, at about 1,000-year intervals.”

The researchers also identified long-term “supercycles” of energy within plate boundary faults, which appear to store this energy like a battery for many thousands of years before yielding a giant earthquake and releasing the pressure. At the same time, smaller earthquakes occur that do not to any great extent dissipate the energy stored within the plates.

The newly published analysis acknowledges that scientists historically may have underestimated the number of regions capable of producing major earthquakes on a scale of Tohoku.

“Since the 1970s, scientists have divided the world into plate boundaries that can generate 9.0 earthquakes versus those that cannot,” said Goldfinger, a professor in OSU’s College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences. “Those models were already being called into question when Sumatra drove one stake through their heart, and Tohoku drove the second one.

“Now we have no models that work,” he added, “and we may not have for decades. We have to assume, however, that the potential for 9.0 subduction zone earthquakes is much more widespread than originally thought.”

Both Tohoku and Sumatra were written off in the textbooks as not having the potential for a major earthquake, Goldfinger pointed out.

“Their plate age was too old, and they didn’t have a really large earthquake in their recent history,” Goldfinger said. “In fact, if you look at a northern Japan seismic risk map from several years ago, it looks quite benign — but this was an artifact of recent statistics.”

Paleoseismic evidence of subduction zone earthquakes is not yet plentiful in most cases, so little is known about the long-term earthquake potential of most major faults. Scientists can determine whether a fault has ruptured in the past — when and to what extent — but they cannot easily estimate how big a specific earthquake might have been. Most, Goldfinger says, fall into ranges — say, 8.4 to 8.7.

Nevertheless, that type of evidence can be more telling than historical records because it may take many thousands of years to capture the full range of earthquake behavior.

In their analysis, the researchers point to several subduction zone areas that previously had been discounted as potential 9.0 earthquake producers — but may be due for reconsideration. These include central Chile, Peru, New Zealand, the Kuriles fault between Japan and Russia, the western Aleutian Islands, the Philippines, Java, the Antilles Islands and Makran, Pakistan/Iran.

Onshore faults such as the Himalayan Front may also be hiding outsized earthquakes, the researchers add. Their work was supported by the National Science Foundation.

Goldfinger, who directs the Active Tectonics and Seafloor Mapping Laboratory at Oregon State, is a leading expert on the Cascadia Subduction Zone off the Pacific Northwest coast of North America. His comparative studies have taken him to the Indian Ocean, Japan and Chile, and in 2007, he led the first American research ship into Sumatra waters in nearly 30 years to study similarities between the Indian Ocean subduction zone and Cascadia.

Paleoseismic evidence abounds in the Cascadia Subduction Zone, Goldfinger pointed out. When a major offshore earthquake occurs, the disturbance causes mud and sand to begin streaming down the continental margins and into the undersea canyons. Coarse sediments called turbidites run out onto the abyssal plain; these sediments stand out distinctly from the fine particulate matter that accumulates on a regular basis between major tectonic events.

By dating the fine particles through carbon-14 analysis and other methods, Goldfinger and colleagues can estimate with a great deal of accuracy when major earthquakes have occurred. Over the past 10,000 years, there have been 19 earthquakes that extended along most of the Cascadia Subduction Zone margin, stretching from southern Vancouver Island to the Oregon-California border.

“These would typically be of a magnitude from about 8.7 to 9.2 — really huge earthquakes,” Goldfinger said. “We’ve also determined that there have been 22 additional earthquakes that involved just the southern end of the fault. We are assuming that these are slightly smaller — more like 8.0 — but not necessarily. They were still very large earthquakes that if they happened today could have a devastating impact.”

Other researchers on the analysis include Yasutaka Ikeda of University of Tokyo, Robert S. Yeats of Oregon State University, and Junjie Ren, of the Chinese Seismological Bureau.

Journal Reference:

  1. C. Goldfinger, Y. Ikeda, R. S. Yeats, J. Ren. Superquakes and SupercyclesSeismological Research Letters, 2013; 84 (1): 24 DOI: 10.1785/0220110135

Climate Change Beliefs of Independent Voters Shift With the Weather (Science Daily)

Jan. 24, 2013 — There’s a well-known saying in New England that if you don’t like the weather here, wait a minute. When it comes to independent voters, those weather changes can just as quickly shift beliefs about climate change.

Predicted probability of “climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities” response as a function of temperature anomaly and political party. (Credit: Lawrence Hamilton and Mary Stampone/UNH)

New research from the University of New Hampshire finds that the climate change beliefs of independent voters are dramatically swayed by short-term weather conditions. The research was conducted by Lawrence Hamilton, professor of sociology and senior fellow at the Carsey Institute, and Mary Stampone, assistant professor of geography and the New Hampshire state climatologist.

“We find that over 10 surveys, Republicans and Democrats remain far apart and firm in their beliefs about climate change. Independents fall in between these extremes, but their beliefs appear weakly held — literally blowing in the wind. Interviewed on unseasonably warm days, independents tend to agree with the scientific consensus on human-caused climate change. On unseasonably cool days, they tend not to,” Hamilton and Stampone say.

Hamilton and Stampone used statewide data from about 5,000 random-sample telephone interviews conducted on 99 days over two and a half years (2010 to 2012) by the Granite State Poll. They combined the survey data with temperature and precipitation indicators derived from New Hampshire’s U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) station records. Survey respondents were asked whether they thought climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. Alternatively, respondents could state that climate change is not happening, or that it is happening but mainly for natural reasons.

Unseasonably warm or cool temperatures on the interview day and previous day seemed to shift the odds of respondents believing that humans are changing the climate. However, when researchers broke these responses down by political affiliation (Democrat, Republican or independent), they found that temperature had a substantial effect on climate change views mainly among independent voters.

“Independent voters were less likely to believe that climate change was caused by humans on unseasonably cool days and more likely to believe that climate change was caused by humans on unseasonably warm days. The shift was dramatic. On the coolest days, belief in human-caused climate change dropped below 40 percent among independents. On the hottest days, it increased above 70 percent,” Hamilton says.

New Hampshire’s self-identified independents generally resemble their counterparts on a nationwide survey that asked the same questions, according to the researchers. Independents comprise 18 percent of the New Hampshire estimation sample, compared with 17 percent nationally. They are similar with respect to education, but slightly older, and more balanced with respect to gender.

In conducting their analysis, the researchers took into account other factors such as education, age, and sex. They also made adjustments for the seasons, and for random variation between surveys that might be caused by nontemperature events.

Journal Reference:

  1. Lawrence C. Hamilton, Mary D. Stampone. Blowin’ in the wind: Short-term weather and belief in anthropogenic climate changeWeather, Climate, and Society, 2013; : 130123150419007 DOI: 10.1175/WCAS-D-12-00048.1

The Storm That Never Was: Why Meteorologists Are Often Wrong (Science Daily)

Jan. 24, 2013 — Have you ever woken up to a sunny forecast only to get soaked on your way to the office? On days like that it’s easy to blame the weatherman.

BYU engineering professor Julie Crockett studies waves in the ocean and the atmosphere. (Credit: Image courtesy of Brigham Young University)

But BYU mechanical engineering professor Julie Crockett doesn’t get mad at meteorologists. She understands something that very few people know: it’s not the weatherman’s fault he’s wrong so often.

According to Crockett, forecasters make mistakes because the models they use for predicting weather can’t accurately track highly influential elements called internal waves.

Atmospheric internal waves are waves that propagate between layers of low-density and high-density air. Although hard to describe, almost everyone has seen or felt these waves. Cloud patterns made up of repeating lines are the result of internal waves, and airplane turbulence happens when internal waves run into each other and break.

“Internal waves are difficult to capture and quantify as they propagate, deposit energy and move energy around,” Crockett said. “When forecasters don’t account for them on a small scale, then the large scale picture becomes a little bit off, and sometimes being just a bit off is enough to be completely wrong about the weather.”

One such example may have happened in 2011, when Utah meteorologists predicted an enormous winter storm prior to Thanksgiving. Schools across the state cancelled classes and sent people home early to avoid the storm. Though it’s impossible to say for sure, internal waves may have been driving stronger circulations, breaking up the storm and causing it to never materialize.

“When internal waves deposit their energy it can force the wind faster or slow the wind down such that it can enhance large scale weather patterns or extreme kinds of events,” Crockett said. “We are trying to get a better feel for where that wave energy is going.”

Internal waves also exist in oceans between layers of low-density and high-density water. These waves, often visible from space, affect the general circulation of the ocean and phenomena like the Gulf Stream and Jet Stream.

Both oceanic and atmospheric internal waves carry a significant amount of energy that can alter climates.

Crockett’s latest wave research, which appears in a recent issue of the International Journal of Geophysics, details how the relationship between large-scale and small-scale internal waves influences the altitude where wave energy is ultimately deposited.

To track wave energy, Crockett and her students generate waves in a tank in her lab and study every aspect of their behavior. She and her colleagues are trying to pinpoint exactly how climate changes affect waves and how those waves then affect weather.

Based on this, Crockett can then develop a better linear wave model with both 3D and 2D modeling that will allow forecasters to improve their weather forecasting.

“Understanding how waves move energy around is very important to large scale climate events,” Crockett said. “Our research is very important to this problem, but it hasn’t solved it completely.”

Journal Reference:

  1. B. Casaday, J. Crockett. Investigation of High-Frequency Internal Wave Interactions with an Enveloped Inertia WaveInternational Journal of Geophysics, 2012; 2012: 1 DOI: 10.1155/2012/863792

Belo Monte é um absurdo e termelétricas são desnecessárias [((o))eco]

Daniele Bragança

22 de Janeiro de 2013

Para Célio Bermann, eletricidade produzida com excedente de bagaço de cana equivaleria a duas Belo Montes.

O setor de energia ganhou as primeiras páginas dos jornais no início de 2013 com o baixo nível dos reservatórios e a possibilidade de manter as termelétricas ligadas ao longo de todo o ano para compensar a falta de chuvas. Célio Bermann, professor do Instituto de Eletrotécnica e Energia da USP, é um crítico severo dessa solução. Um dos mais respeitados especialistas na área energética do país, trabalhou como assessor da então Ministra Dilma Rousseff no Ministério de Minas e Energia, entre 2003 e 2004. “Saí quando verifiquei que o Ministério de Minas e Energia estava fazendo o contrário do que eu pensava que seria possível”, diz ele. Severo crítico da hidrelétrica de Belo Monte, fez parte do painel de especialistasque concluíram que o projeto da usina não deveria ter seguimento.

Bermann conversou com ((o))eco sobre os caminhos do setor energético e possíveis soluções para evitar o uso intensivo das termoelétricas como complementação das hidrelétricas.

((o))eco: O Ministério de Minas e Energia estuda usar as termelétricas de forma permanente, para poupar os reservatórios. O que o senhor acha disso?
Utilizar termelétricas para complementar o sistema hidrelétrico é uma solução equivocada. Em primeiro lugar, estamos falando de um sistema elétrico que prioriza a geração de energia a partir da água, o que o torna dependente do regime hidrológico. É preciso com urgência diversificar a matriz de eletricidade do Brasil, utilizando fontes que, ao mesmo tempo, possam complementar o regime da falta de água e que sejam viáveis do ponto de vista econômico e ambiental.

((o))eco: Por quê?
Primeiro, porque a termoeletricidade pode custar 4 vezes mais do que a hidroeletricidade. Além disso, utiliza três fontes fósseis derivados de petróleo: óleo combustível, carvão mineral e gás natural. O principal problema na utilização das fontes fósseis, ao meu entender, não são as emissões de gases de efeito estufa. No caso brasileiro, o problema maior das termoelétricas é serem emissoras de hidrocarbonetos, de dióxido de nitrogênio, de dióxido de enxofre, de material particulado e de fumaça.

((o))eco: Quais são as consequências?
O impacto ambiental dessas fontes é sobre a saúde pública. A vizinhança dessas usinas fica suscetível a doenças crônicas causadas por esse coquetel de poluição.

((o))eco: Há termelétricas que utilizam água na sua refrigeração. Isso causa impactos negativos?
Em geral, essas usinas utilizam água dos rios próximos. Existem regiões no Brasil em que o comprometimento hídrico impede a construção de termelétricas. No estado de São Paulo, no rio Piracicaba, por exemplo, não foi possível construir usinas a gás natural porque elas demandavam um volume de água além das possibilidades da bacia deste rio.

((o)) eco: Qual é o custo das termelétricas?

A partir do bagaço da cana de açúcar, resíduo da produção sucroalcooleira, pode-se produzir 10 mil megawatts excedentes, o que equivale a mais de 2 vezes a energia média produzida por Belo Monte.

A energia das termelétricas pode custar até 4 vezes mais do que a hidroeletricidade. Ao mesmo tempo, com a Medida Provisória 579, o governo quer reduzir a tarifa de energia usando recursos do Tesouro Nacional. É um absurdo, pois esta medida afeta indiretamente o bolso dos consumidores. Somos nós que vamos pagar por essa redução da tarifa. É uma forma fictícia de fazer algo desejável: reduzir a tarifa. Temos uma das tarifas de energia elétrica mais cara do mundo, algo absurdo porque nossa matriz com ênfase em hidrelétricas produz energia que deveria ser barata.

((o))eco: E quais seriam essas alternativas?
São três: a conservação da energia, o uso da biomassa e da energia eólica. A primeira alternativa é pensar na conservação e no uso eficiente da energia. É preciso uma ampla campanha nas mídias para ensinar à população a reduzir o desperdício. O governo está fazendo o contrário, quando diz que não há risco de racionamento.

Quando o governo prefere a termoeletricidade como base, está dizendo: vamos usar a termoeletricidade de forma que não se tenha riscos durante o período em que a hidrologia é desfavorável, que é o período entre junho e outubro. Essa solução, como já pontuei antes, é completamente inadequada.

A campanha por redução do consumo de energia deve abranger também grandes consumidores industriais. Estou falando de 6 setores: cimento, siderurgia, alumínio, química, ferro-liga e papel/celulose. Em conjunto, eles respondem pelo consumo de 30% da energia no Brasil. Não estou falando em fechar essas fábricas, mas que um esforço desses setores na redução da sua escala de produção aumentaria a disponibilidade de energia para a economia e para a população. É uma questão de interesse público.

((o))eco: E a segunda alternativa?

No mês de outubro, por causa do regime hidrológico, a capacidade de geração ficará reduzida a 1mil megawatts, ou seja, 10 % da capacidade instalada.

A segunda alternativa é a utilização do potencial do setor sucroalcooleiro como fonte de complementação de energia. O Instituto de Eletrotécnica e Energia da USP recentemente constatou que, a partir do bagaço da cana de açúcar, resíduo da produção sucroalcooleira, pode-se produzir 10 mil megawatts excedentes, o que equivale a mais de 2 vezes a energia média produzida por Belo Monte. Essa energia pode chegar ao sistema elétrico em 3 ou 4 meses e a custo baixo.

Hoje, o bagaço é utilizado para complementar a própria necessidade de eletricidade das usinas. Mas elas também poderiam comercializar o excedente que é dessa ordem que eu falei, de 10 mil megawatts. Elas já comercializam 1.230 megawatts de energia elétrica excedente.

((o))eco: Por que essa energia não está disponível?
Uma resolução da Aneel (Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica) determina que cabe à usina o investimento para construir as linhas de transmissão de energia que levem esse excedente da usina até uma subestação ou uma rede de distribuição de energia elétrica. Nosso levantamento, feito para algumas regiões, mostra que a distância entre as usinas e a rede varia de 10 a 30 km, percurso relativamente curto.

((o)) eco: E o que poderia ser feito para viabilizar estas pequenas linhas?
O BNDES (Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento) poderia financiar a construção dessas linhas. Com crédito, esse excedente poderia estar disponível já na próxima safra, em abril de 2013. Com investimento na troca de equipamentos de cogeração ─ caldeiras de maior pressão ─ esses 10 mil megawatts potenciais da biomassa podem dobrar para 20 mil megawatts. De novo, em nome do interesse público, o BNDES poderia ser o financiador.

Infelizmente, o BNDES está usando 22,5 bilhões de reais para financiar a construção da usina hidrelétrica de Belo Monte. Quando ficar pronta, em 2019, ela acrescentará apenas 4.400 megawatts médios ao sistema elétrico. Veja o absurdo, a política do governo prioriza megaobras de hidrelétricas, quando existem soluções de energia complementar às hidros, que funcionam justamente na época das secas. A safra da cana de açúcar ocorre no período de menos chuvas, que vai de maio até novembro.

((o))eco: Belo Monte deveria ser descartado, então?

Conforme dados oficiais, o sistema de transmissão e distribuição nacional tem uma perda técnica (excluindo os gatos) da ordem de 15,4%.

Belo Monte deveria ser descartada. O custo é enorme: 30 bilhões de reais para uma capacidade instalada de 11.233 megawatts. Essa capacidade estará disponível durante 3 ou 4 meses por ano, no período das chuvas. No mês de outubro, por causa do regime hidrológico, a capacidade de geração ficará reduzida a 1mil megawatts, ou seja, 10 % da capacidade instalada. A média ao longo do ano é de 4400 megawatts. A contribuição do rio Xingu e da Usina de Belo Monte é uma fração do que está sendo alegado para justificar a construção da usina. Eu afirmo, Belo Monte atende ao interesse das empreiteiras e empresas ligadas à sua construção, e não à população e a economia brasileira.

((o))eco: E a terceira alternativa?
A terceira alternativa é a energia eólica. No nordeste, o regime de ventos é maior justamente na época da estiagem. Os reservatórios do rio São Francisco podem acumular água durante o período mais crítico, enquanto a energia eólica abasteceria a região nordeste. Ouve-se a alegação de que a biomassa, a eólica, são fontes intermitentes. Ora, a hidroeletricidade também é intermitente, pois depende do regime hidrológico.

((o))eco: E quanto a eficiência, qual é o percentual de perda nas linhas de transmissão?
Conforme dados oficiais, o sistema de transmissão e distribuição nacional tem uma perda técnica (excluindo os gatos) da ordem de 15,4%. É impossível eliminar todas as perdas, mas cortar 5 pontos percentuais é tecnologicamente viável e traz grandes benefícios econômicos. Basta investir na manutenção do sistema: isolar melhor os fios de transmissão e trocar transformadores que já esgotaram sua vida útil. O número crescente de apagões é uma evidência de má manutenção. Por exemplo, parafusos velhos levam à queda de torres de transmissão.

Dessa forma, a perda poderia ser reduzida para cerca de 10% e acrescentariam ao sistema elétrico o equivalente a uma usina hidrelétrica de 6.100 megawatts ─ 150% mais da média de Belo Monte ─ de acordo com cálculo recente que fiz com estudantes da Pós-Graduação em Energia do IEE. Isso poderia ser alcançado a um terço do custo de produzir um novo megawatt.

A Aneel é leniente em relação às perdas. É fundamental que ela defina, em nome do interesse público, metas de redução de perdas técnicas nas empresas de distribuição e concessionárias de distribuição de energia. O alcance dessas metas deveria ser associado à redução tarifária.

((o))eco: É caro construir novas linhas de transmissão?
Sim, principalmente para levar energia distante dos centros de consumo, como é o caso dos projetos de hidrelétricas que estão sendo construídas na Amazônia.

((o))eco: E a energia nuclear? O Brasil deve pensar em investir nesta alternativa de energia?
A energia nuclear é uma fonte cara, desnecessária e com um risco de ocorrência de acidentes severos. Além das usinas de Angra 1 e 2, estamos construindo Angra 3. Todas elas numa região que é imprópria para a implantação de usinas nucleares. Angra dos Reis é uma região suscetível a grandes chuvas no verão. Não é impensável a possibilidade que uma chuva mais severa derrube as linhas que transmitem energia elétrica do sistema até as usinas.

O resultado da interrupção de fornecimento de energia elétrica pode fazer as bombas de refrigeração de água dos reatores pararem, provocando o superaquecimento e a explosão do reator, que foi o que aconteceu, em fevereiro de 2011, nos 4 reatores de Fukushima, no Japão. Com um agravante: a única via de escoamento da população é a Rio-Santos, absolutamente incapaz de evacuar toda a população local. A empresa Eletronuclear considera, hoje, uma população da ordem de 200 mil habitantes. Essa população dobra na época das férias, que coincide com a época das chuvas.

Global Warming Has Increased Monthly Heat Records Worldwide by a Factor of Five, Study Finds (Science Daily)

Jan. 14, 2013 — Monthly temperature extremes have become much more frequent, as measurements from around the world indicate. On average, there are now five times as many record-breaking hot months worldwide than could be expected without long-term global warming, shows a study now published in Climatic Change. In parts of Europe, Africa and southern Asia the number of monthly records has increased even by a factor of ten. 80 percent of observed monthly records would not have occurred without human influence on climate, concludes the authors-team of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Complutense University of Madrid.

Record-breaking hot months have become much more frequent. (Credit: PIK)

“The last decade brought unprecedented heat waves; for instance in the US in 2012, in Russia in 2010, in Australia in 2009, and in Europe in 2003,” lead-author Dim Coumou says. “Heat extremes are causing many deaths, major forest fires, and harvest losses — societies and ecosystems are not adapted to ever new record-breaking temperatures.” The new study relies on 131 years of monthly temperature data for more than 12,000 grid points around the world, provided by NASA. Comprehensive analysis reveals the increase in records.

The researchers developed a robust statistical model that explains the surge in the number of records to be a consequence of the long-term global warming trend. That surge has been particularly steep over the last 40 years, due to a steep global-warming trend over this period. Superimposed on this long-term rise, the data show the effect of natural variability, with especially high numbers of heat records during years with El Niño events. This natural variability, however, does not explain the overall development of record events, found the researchers.

Natural variability does not explain the overall development of record events

If global warming continues, the study projects that the number of new monthly records will be 12 times as high in 30 years as it would be without climate change. “Now this doesn’t mean there will be 12 times more hot summers in Europe than today — it actually is worse,” Coumou points out. For the new records set in the 2040s will not just be hot by today’s standards. “To count as new records, they actually have to beat heat records set in the 2020s and 2030s, which will already be hotter than anything we have experienced to date,” explains Coumou. “And this is just the global average — in some continental regions, the increase in new records will be even greater.”

“Statistics alone cannot tell us what the cause of any single heat wave is, but they show a large and systematic increase in the number of heat records due to global warming,” says Stefan Rahmstorf, a co-author of the study and co-chair of PIK’s research domain Earth System Analysis. “Today, this increase is already so large that by far most monthly heat records are due to climate change. The science is clear that only a small fraction would have occurred naturally.”

Journal Reference:

  1. Dim Coumou, Alexander Robinson, Stefan Rahmstorf.Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperaturesClimatic Change, 2013; DOI:10.1007/s10584-012-0668-1

Severe Climate Jeopardizing Amazon Forest, Study Finds (Science Daily)

Jan. 18, 2013 — An area of the Amazon rainforest twice the size of California continues to suffer from the effects of a megadrought that began in 2005, finds a new NASA-led study. These results, together with observed recurrences of droughts every few years and associated damage to the forests in southern and western Amazonia in the past decade, suggest these rainforests may be showing the first signs of potential large-scale degradation due to climate change.

At left, the extent of the 2005 megadrought in the western Amazon rainforests during the summer months of June, July and August as measured by NASA satellites. The most impacted areas are shown in shades of red and yellow. The circled area in the right panel shows the extent of the forests that experienced slow recovery from the 2005 drought, with areas in red and yellow shades experiencing the slowest recovery. (Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/GSFC)

An international research team led by Sassan Saatchi of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., analyzed more than a decade of satellite microwave radar data collected between 2000 and 2009 over Amazonia. The observations included measurements of rainfall from NASA’s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and measurements of the moisture content and structure of the forest canopy (top layer) from the Seawinds scatterometer on NASA’s QuikScat spacecraft.

The scientists found that during the summer of 2005, more than 270,000 square miles (700,000 square kilometers, or 70 million hectares) of pristine, old-growth forest in southwestern Amazonia experienced an extensive, severe drought. This megadrought caused widespread changes to the forest canopy that were detectable by satellite. The changes suggest dieback of branches and tree falls, especially among the older, larger, more vulnerable canopy trees that blanket the forest.

While rainfall levels gradually recovered in subsequent years, the damage to the forest canopy persisted all the way to the next major drought, which began in 2010. About half the forest affected by the 2005 drought — an area the size of California — did not recover by the time QuikScat stopped gathering global data in November 2009 and before the start of a more extensive drought in 2010.

“The biggest surprise for us was that the effects appeared to persist for years after the 2005 drought,” said study co-author Yadvinder Malhi of the University of Oxford, United Kingdom. “We had expected the forest canopy to bounce back after a year with a new flush of leaf growth, but the damage appeared to persist right up to the subsequent drought in 2010.”

Recent Amazonian droughts have drawn attention to the vulnerability of tropical forests to climate change. Satellite and ground data have shown an increase in wildfires during drought years and tree die-offs following severe droughts. Until now, there had been no satellite-based assessment of the multi-year impacts of these droughts across all of Amazonia. Large-scale droughts can lead to sustained releases of carbon dioxide from decaying wood, affecting ecosystems and Earth’s carbon cycle.

The researchers attribute the 2005 Amazonian drought to the long-term warming of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. “In effect, the same climate phenomenon that helped form hurricanes Katrina and Rita along U.S. southern coasts in 2005 also likely caused the severe drought in southwest Amazonia,” Saatchi said. “An extreme climate event caused the drought, which subsequently damaged the Amazonian trees.”

Saatchi said such megadroughts can have long-lasting effects on rainforest ecosystems. “Our results suggest that if droughts continue at five- to 10-year intervals or increase in frequency due to climate change, large areas of the Amazon forest are likely to be exposed to persistent effects of droughts and corresponding slow forest recovery,” he said. “This may alter the structure and function of Amazonian rainforest ecosystems.”

The team found that the area affected by the 2005 drought was much larger than scientists had previously predicted. About 30 percent (656,370 square miles, or 1.7 million square kilometers) of the Amazon basin’s total current forest area was affected, with more than five percent of the forest experiencing severe drought conditions. The 2010 drought affected nearly half of the entire Amazon forest, with nearly a fifth of it experiencing severe drought. More than 231,660 square miles (600,000 square kilometers) of the area affected by the 2005 drought were also affected by the 2010 drought. This “double whammy” by successive droughts suggests a potentially long-lasting and widespread effect on forests in southern and western Amazonia.

The drought rate in Amazonia during the past decade is unprecedented over the past century. In addition to the two major droughts in 2005 and 2010, the area has experienced several localized mini-droughts in recent years. Observations from ground stations show that rainfall over the southern Amazon rainforest declined by almost 3.2 percent per year in the period from 1970 to 1998. Climate analyses for the period from 1995 to 2005 show a steady decline in water availability for plants in the region. Together, these data suggest a decade of moderate water stress led up to the 2005 drought, helping trigger the large-scale forest damage seen following the 2005 drought.

Saatchi said the new study sheds new light on a major controversy that existed about how the Amazon forest responded following the 2005 megadrought. Previous studies using conventional optical satellite data produced contradictory results, likely due to the difficulty of correcting the optical data for interference by clouds and other atmospheric conditions.

In contrast, QuikScat’s scatterometer radar was able to see through the clouds and penetrate into the top few meters of vegetation, providing daily measurements of the forest canopy structure and estimates of how much water the forest contains. Areas of drought-damaged forest produced a lower radar signal than the signals collected over healthy forest areas, indicating either that the forest canopy is drier or it is less “rough” due to damage to or the death of canopy trees.

Results of the study were published recently in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Other participating institutions included UCLA; University of Oxford, United Kingdom; University of Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; National Institute for Space Research, Sao Jose dos Campos, Sao Paulo, Brazil; Boston University, Mass.; and NASA’s Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, Calif.

For more on NASA’s scatterometry missions, visit:http://winds.jpl.nasa.gov/index.cfm . You can follow JPL News on Facebook at: http://www.facebook.com/nasajpl and on Twitter at: http://www.twitter.com/nasajpl . The California Institute of Technology in Pasadena manages JPL for NASA.

New Insights On Drought Predictions in East Africa (Science Daily)

Jan. 18, 2013 — With more than 40 million people living under exceptional drought conditions in East Africa, the ability to make accurate predictions of drought has never been more important. In the aftermath of widespread famine and a humanitarian crisis caused by the 2010-2011 drought in the Horn of Africa — possibly the worst drought in 60 years — researchers are striving to determine whether drying trends will continue.

Climate model simulations analyzed as part of the study revealed that the relationship between sea surface temperatures and atmospheric convection in the Indian Ocean changes rainfall in East Africa. Specifically, wet conditions in coastal East Africa are associated with cool sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean and warm sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean, which cause ascending atmospheric circulation over East Africa and enhanced rainfall. The opposite situation—cold sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean and warmer in the East—causes drought. Such variations in sea-surface temperatures likely caused the historical fluctuations in rainfall seen in the paleorecord. (Credit: Courtesy Jessica Tierney, et al, 2013)

While it is clear that El Niño can affect precipitation in this region of East Africa, very little is known about the drivers of long-term shifts in rainfall. However, new research described in the journal Nature helps explain the mechanisms at work behind historical patterns of aridity in Eastern Africa over many decades, and the findings may help improve future predictions of drought and food security in the region.

“The problem is, instrumental records of temperature and rainfall, especially in East Africa, don’t go far enough in time to study climate variability over decades or more, since they are generally limited to the 20th century,” explains first author Jessica Tierney, a geologist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI). Tierney and her colleagues at WHOI and the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University used what is known as the paleoclimate record, which provides information on climate in the geologic past, to study East African climate change over a span of 700 years.

The paleoclimate record in East Africa consists of indicators of moisture balance — including pollen, water isotopes, charcoal, and evidence for run-off events — measured in lake sediment cores. Tierney and her colleagues synthesized these data, revealing a clear pattern wherein the easternmost sector of East Africa was relatively dry in medieval times (from 1300 to 1400 a.d.), wet during the “Little Ice Age” from approximately 1600 to 1800 a.d., and then drier again toward the present time.

Climate model simulations analyzed as part of the study revealed that the relationship between sea surface temperatures and atmospheric convection in the Indian Ocean changes rainfall in East Africa. Specifically, wet conditions in coastal East Africa are associated with cool sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean and warm sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean, which cause ascending atmospheric circulation over East Africa and enhanced rainfall. The opposite situation — cold sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean and warmer in the East — causes drought. Such variations in sea-surface temperatures likely caused the historical fluctuations in rainfall seen in the paleorecord.

The central role of the Indian Ocean in long-term climate change in the region was a surprise. “While the Indian Ocean has long been thought of as a ‘little brother’ to the Pacific, it is clear that it is in charge when it comes to these decades-long changes in precipitation in East Africa,” says Tierney.

Many questions remain, though. “We still don’t understand exactly what causes the changes in sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean and the relationship between those changes and global changes in climate, like the cooling that occurred during the Little Ice Age or the global warming that is occurring now,” says Tierney. “We’ll need to do some more experiments with climate models to understand that better.”

In the past decade, the easternmost region of Africa has gotten drier, yet general circulation climate models predict that the region will become wetter in response to global warming. “Given the geopolitical significance of the region, it is very important to understand whether drying trends will continue, in which case the models will need to be revised, or if the models will eventually prove correct in their projections of increased precipitation in East Africa,” says co-author Jason Smerdon, of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.

While it’s currently unclear which theory is correct, the discovery of the importance of the Indian Ocean may help solve the mystery. “In terms of forecasting long-term patterns in drought and food security, we would recommend that researchers make use of patterns of sea surface temperature changes in the Indian Ocean rather than just looking at the shorter term El Niño events or the Pacific Ocean,” says Tierney.

In addition, Tierney and her colleagues lack paleoclimate data from the region that is most directly affected by the Indian Ocean — the Horn of Africa. The paleoclimate data featured in this study are limited to more equatorial and interior regions of East Africa. With support from National Science Foundation, Tierney and her colleagues are now developing a new record of both aridity and sea surface temperatures from the Gulf of Aden, at a site close to the Horn.

“This will give us the best picture of what’s happened to climate in the Horn, and in fact, it will be the first record of paleoclimate in the Horn that covers the last few millennia in detail. We’re working on those analyses now and should have results in the next year or so,” says Tierney.

This research was based on work supported by the National Science Foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Journal Reference:

  1. Jessica E. Tierney, Jason E. Smerdon, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Richard Seager. Multidecadal variability in East African hydroclimate controlled by the Indian OceanNature, 2013; 493 (7432): 389 DOI:10.1038/nature11785

Cacique Cobra Coral rompe parceria com a prefeitura (O Globo)

Governo teria deixado de entregar, nos prazos previstos, relatórios com um balanço dos investimentos em prevenção realizados ano passado na cidade

O GLOBO

Publicado:14/01/13 – 0h08

RIO — Em pleno verão carioca, o sistema de alerta e prevenção a enchentes do Rio perdeu um colaborador incomum. O porta-voz da Fundação Cacique Cobra Coral, Osmar Santos, anunciou no domingo que rompeu o convênio técnico-científico que mantinha com a prefeitura do Rio. O motivo é que a prefeitura deixou de entregar, nos prazos previstos, relatórios com um balanço dos investimentos em prevenção realizados ano passado na cidade. A ONG é comandada pela médium Adelaide Scritori, que afirma ter o poder de controlar o tempo. Desde a administração do ex-prefeito Cesar Maia, Adelaide esteve à disposição para prestar assistência espiritual a fim de tentar reduzir os estragos causados por temporais. Em janeiro de 2009, a prefeitura chegou a anunciar o fim da parceria, mas voltou atrás após uma forte chuva.

— Alguém da burocracia muito atarefado esqueceu da gente. Mas, caso a prefeitura queira continuar a receber nossa consultoria, que é gratuita, estamos à disposição — disse Osmar Santos.

Leia mais sobre esse assunto em http://oglobo.globo.com/rio/cacique-cobra-coral-rompe-parceria-com-prefeitura-7285402#ixzz2Il9blV38 © 1996 – 2013. Todos direitos reservados a Infoglobo Comunicação e Participações S.A. Este material não pode ser publicado, transmitido por broadcast, reescrito ou redistribuído sem autorização.

Heat, Flood or Icy Cold, Extreme Weather Rages Worldwide (N.Y.Times)

NY Times

January 10, 2013

By SARAH LYALL

WORCESTER, England — Britons may remember 2012 as the year the weather spun off its rails in a chaotic concoction of drought, deluge and flooding, but the unpredictability of it all turns out to have been all too predictable: Around the world, extreme has become the new commonplace.

Especially lately. China is enduring its coldest winter in nearly 30 years. Brazil is in the grip of a dreadful heat spell. Eastern Russia is so freezing — minus 50 degrees Fahrenheit, and counting — that the traffic lights recently stopped working in the city of Yakutsk.

Bush fires are raging across Australia, fueled by a record-shattering heat wave. Pakistan was inundated by unexpected flooding in September. A vicious storm bringing rain, snow and floods just struck the Middle East. And in the United States, scientists confirmed this week what people could have figured out simply by going outside: last year was the hottest since records began.

“Each year we have extreme weather, but it’s unusual to have so many extreme events around the world at once,” said Omar Baddour, chief of the data management applications division at the World Meteorological Organization, in Geneva. “The heat wave in Australia; the flooding in the U.K., and most recently the flooding and extensive snowstorm in the Middle East — it’s already a big year in terms of extreme weather calamity.”

Such events are increasing in intensity as well as frequency, Mr. Baddour said, a sign that climate change is not just about rising temperatures, but also about intense, unpleasant, anomalous weather of all kinds.

Here in Britain, people are used to thinking of rain as the wallpaper on life’s computer screen — an omnipresent, almost comforting background presence. But even the hardiest citizen was rattled by the near-biblical fierceness of the rains that bucketed down, and the floods that followed, three different times in 2012.

Rescuers plucked people by boat from their swamped homes in St. Asaph, North Wales. Whole areas of the country were cut off when roads and train tracks were inundated at Christmas. In Megavissey, Cornwall, a pub owner closed his business for good after it flooded 11 times in two months.

It was no anomaly: the floods of 2012 followed the floods of 2007 and also the floods of 2009, which all told have resulted in nearly $6.5 billion in insurance payouts. The Met Office, Britain’s weather service, declared 2012 the wettest year in England, and the second-wettest in Britain as a whole, since records began more than 100 years ago. Four of the five wettest years in the last century have come in the past decade (the fifth was in 1954).

The biggest change, said Charles Powell, a spokesman for the Met Office, is the frequency in Britain of “extreme weather events” — defined as rainfall reaching the top 1 percent of the average amount for that time of year. Fifty years ago, such episodes used to happen every 100 days; now they happen every 70 days, he said.

The same thing is true in Australia, where bush fires are raging across Tasmania and the current heat wave has come after two of the country’s wettest years ever. On Tuesday, Sydney experienced its fifth-hottest day since records began in 1910, with the temperature climbing to 108.1 degrees. The first eight days of 2013 were among the 20 hottest on record.

Every decade since the 1950s has been hotter in Australia than the one before, said Mark Stafford Smith, science director of the Climate Adaptation Flagship at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization.

To the north, the extremes have swung the other way, with a band of cold settling across Russia and Northern Europe, bringing thick snow and howling winds to Stockholm, Helsinki and Moscow. (Incongruously, there were also severe snowstorms in Sicily and southern Italy for the first time since World War II; in December, tornadoes and waterspouts struck the Italian coast.)

In Siberia, thousands of people were left without heat when natural gas liquefied in its pipes and water mains burst. Officials canceled bus transportation between cities for fear that roadside breakdowns could lead to deaths from exposure, and motorists were advised not to venture far afield except in columns of two or three cars. In Altai, to the east, traffic officials warned drivers not to use poor-quality diesel, saying that it could become viscous in the cold and clog fuel lines.

Meanwhile, China is enduring its worst winter in recent memory, with frigid temperatures recorded in Harbin, in the northeast. In the western region of Xinjiang, more than 1,000 houses collapsed under a relentless onslaught of snow, while in Inner Mongolia, 180,000 livestock froze to death. The cold has wreaked havoc with crops, sending the price of vegetables soaring.

Way down in South America, energy analysts say that Brazil may face electricity rationing for the first time since 2002, as a heat wave and a lack of rain deplete the reservoirs for hydroelectric plants. The summer has been punishingly hot. The temperature in Rio de Janeiro climbed to 109.8 degrees on Dec. 26, the city’s highest temperature since official records began in 1915.

At the same time, in the Middle East, Jordan is battling a storm packing torrential rain, snow, hail and floods that are cascading through tunnels, sweeping away cars and spreading misery in Syrian refugee camps. Amman has been virtually paralyzed, with cars abandoned, roads impassable and government offices closed.

Israel and the Palestinian territories are grappling with similar conditions, after a week of intense rain and cold winds ushered in a snowstorm that dumped eight inches in Jerusalem alone.

Amir Givati, head of the surface water department at the Israel Hydrological Service, said the storm was truly unusual because of its duration, its intensity and its breadth. Snow and hail fell not just in the north, but as far south as the desert city of Dimona, best known for its nuclear reactor.

In Beirut on Wednesday night, towering waves crashed against the Corniche, the seaside promenade downtown, flinging water and foam dozens of feet in the air as lightning flickered across the dark sea at multiple points along the horizon. Many roads were flooded as hail pounded the city.

Several people died, including a baby boy in a family of shepherds who was swept out of his mother’s arms by floodwaters. The greatest concern was for the 160,000 Syrian refugees who have fled to Lebanon, taking shelter in schools, sheds and, where possible, with local families. Some refugees are living in farm outbuildings, which are particularly vulnerable to cold and rain.

Barry Lynn, who runs a forecasting business and is a lecturer at the Hebrew University’s department of earth science, said a striking aspect of the whole thing was the severe and prolonged cold in the upper atmosphere, a big-picture shift that indicated the Atlantic Ocean was no longer having the moderating effect on weather in the Middle East and Europe that it has historically.

“The intensity of the cold is unusual,” Mr. Lynn said. “It seems the weather is going to become more intense; there’s going to be more extremes.”

In Britain, where changes to the positioning of the jet stream — a ribbon of air high up in the atmosphere that helps steer weather systems — may be contributing to the topsy-turvy weather, people are still recovering from the December floods. In Worcester last week, the river Severn remained flooded after three weeks, with playing fields buried under water.

In the shop at the Worcester Cathedral, Julie Smith, 54, was struggling, she said, to adjust to the new uncertainty.

“For the past seven or eight years, there’s been a serious incident in a different part of the country,” Mrs. Smith said. “We don’t expect extremes. We don’t expect it to be like this.”

Reporting was contributed by Jodi Rudoren from Jerusalem; Irit Pazner Garshowitz from Tzur Hadassah, Israel; Fares Akram from Gaza City, Gaza; Ellen Barry and Andrew Roth from Moscow; Ranya Kadri from Amman, Jordan; Dan Levin from Harbin, China; Jim Yardley from New Delhi; Anne Barnard from Beirut, Lebanon; Matt Siegel from Sydney, Australia; Scott Sayare from Paris; and Simon Romero from Rio de Janeiro.

*   *   *

 It’s Official: 2012 Was Hottest Year Ever in U.S.

By JUSTIN GILLIS

NY Times, January 8, 2012

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/09/science/earth/2012-was-hottest-year-ever-in-us.html?hp&_r=0

The numbers are in: 2012, the year of a surreal March heat wave, a severe drought in the corn belt and a massive storm that caused broad devastation in the mid-Atlantic states, turns out to have been the hottest year ever recorded in the contiguous United States.

How hot was it? The temperature differences between years are usually measured in fractions of a degree, but last year blew away the previous record, set in 1998, by a full degree Fahrenheit.

If that does not sound sufficiently impressive, consider that 34,008 new daily high records were set at weather stations across the country, compared with only 6,664 new record lows, according to a count maintained by the Weather Channel meteorologist Guy Walton, using federal temperature records.

That ratio, which was roughly in balance as recently as the 1970s, has been out of whack for decades as the country has warmed, but never by as much as it was last year.

“The heat was remarkable,” said Jake Crouch, a scientist with the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., which released the official climate compilation on Tuesday. “It was prolonged. That we beat the record by one degree is quite a big deal.”

Scientists said that natural variability almost certainly played a role in last year’s extreme heat and drought. But many of them expressed doubt that such a striking new record would have been set without the backdrop of global warming caused by the human release of greenhouse gases. And they warned that 2012 was likely a foretaste of things to come, as continuing warming makes heat extremes more likely.

Even so, the last year’s record for the United States is not expected to translate into a global temperature record when figures are released in coming weeks. The year featured a La Niña weather pattern, which tends to cool the global climate over all, and scientists expect it to be the world’s eighth or ninth warmest year on record.

Assuming that prediction holds up, it will mean that the 10 warmest years on record all fell within the past 15 years, a measure of how much the planet has warmed. Nobody who is under 28 has lived through a month of global temperatures that fell below the 20th-century average, because the last such month was February 1985.

Last year’s weather in the United States began with an unusually warm winter, with relatively little snow across much of the country, followed by a March that was so hot that trees burst into bloom and swimming pools opened early. The soil dried out in the March heat, helping to set the stage for a drought that peaked during the warmest July on record.

The drought engulfed 61 percent of the nation, killed corn and soybean crops and sent prices spiraling. It was comparable to a severe drought in the 1950s, Mr. Crouch said, but not quite as severe as the legendary Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s, which was exacerbated by poor farming practices that allowed topsoil to blow away.

Extensive records covering the lower 48 states go back to 1895; Alaska and Hawaii have shorter records and are generally not included in long-term climate comparisons for that reason.

Mr. Crouch pointed out that until last year, the coldest year in the historical record for the lower 48 states, 1917, was separated from the warmest year, 1998, by only 4.2 degrees Fahrenheit. That is why the 2012 record, and its one degree increase over 1998, strikes climatologists as so unusual.

“We’re taking quite a large step above what the period of record has shown for the contiguous United States,” he said.

In addition to being the nation’s warmest year, 2012 turned out to be the second-worst on a measure called the Climate Extremes Index, surpassed only by 1998.

Experts are still counting, but so far 11 disasters in 2012 have exceeded a threshold of $1 billion in damages, including several tornado outbreaks; Hurricane Isaac, which hit the Gulf Coast in August; and, late in the year, Hurricane Sandy, which caused damage likely to exceed $60 billion in nearly half the states, primarily in the mid-Atlantic region.

Among those big disasters was one bearing a label many people had never heard before: the derecho, a line of severe, fast-moving thunderstorms that struck central and eastern parts of the country starting on June 29, killing more than 20 people, toppling trees and knocking out power for millions of households.

For people who escaped both the derecho and Hurricane Sandy relatively unscathed, the year may be remembered most for the sheer breadth and oppressiveness of the summer heat wave. By the calculations of the climatic data center, a third of the nation’s population experienced 10 or more days of summer temperatures exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit.

Among the cities that set temperature records in 2012 were Nashville; Athens, Ga.; and Cairo, Ill., all of which hit 109 degrees on June 29; Greenville, S.C., which hit 107 degrees on July 1; and Lamar, Colo., which hit 112 degrees on June 27.

With the end of the growing season, coverage of the drought has waned, but the drought itself has not. Mr. Crouch pointed out that at the beginning of January, 61 percent of the country was still in moderate to severe drought conditions. “I foresee that it’s going to be a big story moving forward in 2013,” he said.

Your weatherman probably denies global warming (Salon)

FRIDAY, JAN 11, 2013 08:00 AM -0200

The good news: People can be persuaded climate change is real. The bad news: TV experts can’t

BY 

Your weatherman probably denies global warming

There’s a big reason climate change differs from so many public policy challenges: unlike other crises, addressing the planet’s major environmental crisis truly requires mass consensus. Indeed, because fixing the problem involves so many different societal changes — reducing carbon emissions, conserving energy, retrofitting infrastructure, altering a meat-centric diet, to name a few — we all need to at least agree on the basic fact that we are facing an emergency. This is especially the case in a nation where, thanks to the U.S. Senate filibuster, lawmakers representing just 11 percent of the population can kill almost any national legislation.

That’s why, as encouraging as it is to see a new Associated Press-GfK poll showing that 4 in 5 Americans now see climate change as a serious problem, it is also not so encouraging to see that after the hottest year on record, 1 in 5 still somehow do not acknowledge the crisis. Unfortunately, that 1 in 5 may be enough to prevent us from forging the all-hands-on-deck attitude necessary to halt a planetary disaster.

What, if anything, can be done? Short of eliminating the filibuster so that lawmakers representing this 20 percent don’t retain veto power over climate change legislation, America desperately needs a serious public education campaign.

The good news is that with such education, many of those who don’t yet believe climate change is a serious problem can, in fact, be reached — and convinced to accept obvious reality.

This is the conclusion of a new study by researchers at George Mason University and Yale University. It found that those with a “low engagement on the issue of global warming … are more likely to be influenced by their perceived personal experience of global warming than by their prior beliefs.” Summarizing the findings, Grist.org reporter David Roberts writes that “people who have made up their mind have made up their mind,” but for those in the “mushy middle,” personally facing severe weather — and being exposed to facts about what that weather really represents — “can make a real difference.”

The bad news is that this “mushy” group probably cannot be reached by the real experts, as 1 in 3 of those surveyed in the AP poll say they simply do not trust scientists. That leaves local television weather forecasters (many of whom are not actual scientists), national news outlets and Washington political leaders to the task — and up to this point, many of them have played the opposite of a constructive role in climate education.

For instance, when it comes to weather forecasters, a recent Rolling Stone magazine assessment of the local news scene found that “there’s a shockingly high chance that your friendly TV weatherman is a full-blown climate denier.” The report cited a 2010 survey finding that in the vast wasteland of Ron Burgundys, only half of all local weather forecasters believe climate change is even happening, and fewer than a third acknowledge the scientific evidence proving that it is “caused mostly by human activities.” Not surprisingly, their forecasts often omit any discussion of climate change’s effect on the weather systems, thus forfeiting a chance to properly contextualize severe weather events.

Similarly, an analysis in 2012 from the watchdog group Media Matters found that “the amount of climate coverage on both the Sunday shows and the nightly news has declined tremendously.” Meanwhile, the Columbia Journalism Review points out that the “presidential campaign was silent on the issue.”

In a nation that comprises just 5 percent of the world’s population but a whopping 18 percent of its carbon emissions, this situation is unacceptable.

If the first step toward solving a problem is getting past the denial stage, then it is long past time for news organizations and political leaders to end their climate denialism. Only then can we hope to reach the consensus on which our survival depends.

David Sirota is a nationally syndicated newspaper columnist, magazine journalist and the best-selling author of the books “Hostile Takeover,” “The Uprising” and “Back to Our Future.” E-mail him at ds@davidsirota.com, follow him on Twitter @davidsirota or visit his website at www.davidsirota.com.

Humanidade deve começar a se preocupar com descoberta de vida alienígena, diz relatório (O Globo)

Fórum Econômico Mundial listou cinco fatores X, problemas sérios e ainda remotos que devem ter impacto na vida na Terra

RENATA CABRAL

Publicado:9/01/13 – 12h09 / Atualizado:9/01/13 – 15h27

RIO – Enquanto o mundo concentra suas preocupações na crise nos países desenvolvidos e no aquecimento global, o Fórum Econômico Mundial alerta para os chamados “fatores X”, que, segundo a organização, já deveriam estar na pauta de discussão de países e organizações internacionais por terem consequências incertas e, por isso, poder de desestabilizar a atual ordem mundial — entre eles, a descoberta de vida alienígena. O abuso da tecnologia para aumentar a produtividade no trabalho e nos estudos também é citado.

Com o ritmo da exploração do espaço nas últimas décadas, diz o documento, é possível considerar que a humanidade pode descobrir vida em outros planetas. A maior preocupação seria sobre os efeitos nos investimentos em ciência e sobre a própria imagem do ser humano. Supondo que seja encontrado um novo lar em potencial para a humanidade ou a existência de vida em nosso sistema solar, a pesquisa científica teria deslocados grandes investimentos para robótica e missões espaciais. Além disso, as implicações filosóficas e psicológicas da descoberta de vida extraterrestre seriam profundas, desafiando crenças das religiões e da filosofia humana. Por meio de educação e campanhas de alerta, o público poderia se preparar melhor para as consequências desse processo, indica o fórum.

O relatório anual sobre os riscos globais, publicado duas semanas antes do encontro anual que ocorrerá em Davos, teve colaboração da revista científica “Nature” considerando cinco fatores X: além da descoberta de vida em outros planetas, o avanço cognitivo do cérebro humano pelo uso de estimulantes, o uso descontrolado de tecnologias para conter as mudanças climáticas, os custos de se viver mais e as próprias mudanças climáticas em curso. De acordo com o relatório, antecipando-se a essas questões, seria mais fácil agir preventivamente e não ser pego de surpresa quando eles emergirem.

Apesar de as ameaças das mudanças climáticas serem conhecidas, o relatório também indaga se já passamos de um ponto dramático de não retorno. Por isso, para além do tema que guiou os debates na última década — se os seres humanos seriam ou não responsáveis por alterar o clima da Terra —, poderíamos ter de caminhar para discussões forçadas sobre como fortalecer a resiliência e a capacidade de adaptação para lidar com um novo ambiente que pode nos levar a um novo e ainda desconhecido equilíbrio.

Segundo o Fórum Econômico Mundial, outra preocupação de hoje sobre problemas ainda remotos deve ser o avanço cognitivo do ser humano. Há o temor de que no futuro as pessoas abusem da tecnologia que permite turbinar a performance no trabalho e nos estudos. O esforço dos cientistas para tratar doenças como Alzheimer ou esquizofrenia leva a crer que num futuro não muito distante pesquisadores vão identificar substâncias que permitam melhorar os estimulantes de hoje, como a Ritalina. Apesar de serem prescritos para pessoas com doenças neurológicas, esses remédios seriam usados no dia a dia como já ocorre hoje.

O avanço poderia também vir de hardwares, diz o relatório. Estudos mostram que a estimulação elétrica pode favorecer a memória. Diante disso, seria ético aceitar que o mundo se dividisse entre os que tiveram oportunidade de ter a parte cognitiva reforçada ou não?, indaga o documento. Haveria, ainda, o risco de esse avanço dar errado. O impacto dessas novas tecnologias é esperado para dentro de 20 ou 50 anos.

A utilização descontrolada de tecnologias de geoengenharia também é vista como um problema pelo Fórum Econômico Mundial. Apesar de ter diferentes aplicações, espera-se usar a tecnologia para controlar as mudanças climáticas. A ideia básica é que poderiam ser jogadas pequenas partículas na estratosfera para bloquear a energia solar e refleti-la de volta ao espaço. Mas os efeitos colaterais poderiam ser custosos demais, diz o documento. Poderia haver alterações significativas em todo o sistema climático, com redução da luz solar, o que alteraria a forma como a energia e a água se movimentam no planeta. Essa opção não é considerada no curto prazo. Muitos estudiosos já chamaram atenção para os riscos dessa tecnologia. Por isso, poderia surgir um espaço para que experimentações sem regulação ocorressem, alerta o relatório.

Os custos de viver mais seriam outro fator X de preocupação, uma vez que os países não têm se preparado para viver com os altos custos que a terceira idade implica e com uma massa de pessoas que sofrerão de doenças como artrite e demências. Isso porque a medicina do século 20 avançou muito nas descobertas relativas às doenças genéticas, decifrando o genoma humano. São esperados ainda mais avanços em doenças do coração e do câncer. O relatório preocupa-se com o impacto na sociedade de uma camada da população que consegue prever, logo evitar, as causas mais comuns de morte hoje, mas com uma deterioração da qualidade de vida. Mais pesquisas seriam necessárias para encontrar soluções para essas condições, hoje consideradas crônicas.

Leia mais sobre esse assunto em http://oglobo.globo.com/economia/humanidade-deve-comecar-se-preocupar-com-descoberta-de-vida-alienigena-diz-relatorio-7239466#ixzz2HZQ0ax47 
© 1996 – 2013. Todos direitos reservados a Infoglobo Comunicação e Participações S.A. Este material não pode ser publicado, transmitido por broadcast, reescrito ou redistribuído sem autorização.

Tim Ingold: La antropología en crisis (Clarin)

08/01/13

Con una visión crítica, el especialista británico denuncia que esta ciencia no forma parte de debates importantes, y sostiene que “debería mirar al futuro a Través de la lente del pasado”, ser “especulativa y no sólo una disciplina empírica”.

POR VIVIAN SCHEINSOHN

ANTIACADEMICA. Tim Ingold dice que su disciplina desafía el modo académico de producción de conocimiento. / Gustavo Castaing

ANTIACADEMICA. Tim Ingold dice que su disciplina desafía el modo académico de producción de conocimiento. / Gustavo Castaing

Mientras que en el ámbito de las ciencias sociales las escuelas y teorías se multiplican, el antropólogo británico Tim Ingold parece responder sólo a sí mismo. Difícilmente clasificable en una corriente en particular, sus aportes teóricos a la antropología lo convierten en una figura insoslayable. Profesor de Antropología Social en la Universidad de Aberdeen (Escocia), Ingold estuvo en Buenos Aires a fines de 2012, dictó una conferencia en la Universidad Nacional de General San Martín y también viajó a Córdoba donde dictó un curso en el Museo de Antropología de la Universidad de Córdoba.

Ambientes para la vida. Conversaciones sobre humanidad, conocimiento y antropología es el título de su único libro traducido al español.

Sobre el papel de la antropología en el presente y en el futuro, en Europa y en América Latina, dialogó con Ñ .

¿Qué definición le cabe a la antropología en esta época y en este contexto?

Tenemos que movernos más allá de la idea de que la antropología estudia las culturas. Necesitamos pensarla como una disciplina especulativa, que mira las posibilidades y potencialidades de los seres humanos. Por eso, según mi definición, es una filosofía que incluye a la gente. No es sólo pensar cómo fue o es la vida humana en ciertos lugares o momentos sino cómo podría ser, qué tipo de vida podríamos vivir. La antropología debería mirar al futuro a través de la lente del pasado. Debe ser especulativa y no sólo una disciplina empírica.

¿Y entonces qué distingue a la antropología del resto de las ciencias sociales?

Puede pensarse en las ciencias sociales como conformando un paisaje donde cada disciplina es definida por el lugar donde se ubica. Se puede ver entonces que la antropología está hablándole a los sociólogos, a los historiadores, a los lingüistas. Si se toma la sociología, los sociólogos le están hablando a los antropólogos, a los historiadores, pero también a los economistas o a los historiadores del derecho, a los cuales la antropología no les habla. Entonces vemos diferentes lazos con diferentes disciplinas. Todas están conectadas pero ocupan diferentes posiciones en este paisaje. El ambiente de la investigación puede definirse como ese paisaje, con diferentes colinas o montañas donde están la antropología, la sociología, etcétera. Se puede ir de una a la otra sin cruzar ningún límite en particular. El punto es que cada disciplina no es más que un grupo de gente haciendo cosas y conversando. A esa conversación se une mucha gente, cada uno con su propio campo de referencia, en términos de a quiénes leyeron, dónde estuvieron, en que país estudiaron. Por eso no creo que se pueda hablar de disciplinas como si fueran una suerte de supraorganismo. Las ciencias sociales sólo se distinguen entre sí por las conversaciones que tuvieron. Y eso es lo divertido: que todos traemos algo diferente a esa conversación. Y nunca se sabe qué va a salir de eso.

Sin embargo, esa conversación interdisciplinaria no parece funcionar del todo bien. A veces, ciertas disciplinas parecen jugar su propio juego y eso hace que ciertos temas que fueron largamente debatidos en una disciplina sean redescubiertos en otra.

Sí, y eso es extremadamente problemático. Los antropólogos del Reino Unido tenemos problemas para hablar con las ciencias políticas. También tenemos un problema similar con la psicología, donde hoy se dan por sentado supuestos que nosotros deconstruimos hace tiempo. Y esto no sólo afecta a las ciencias sociales. Por ejemplo los biólogos comenzaron a darse cuenta de que la teoría dar-winiana estándar no era suficiente como para explicar la cultura. Entonces ahora aparece la Teoría de la Construcción de Nicho, es decir, la idea de que los humanos son animales que continuamente están construyendo su nicho y que los efectos de esa construcción condicionan la forma en que las futuras generaciones viven. Pero están reinventando la pólvora. Esa idea está bien establecida en antropología desde hace tiempo. Lo único que agregaron es la formalización. Lo hacen de una manera matemática de modo que la gente del ámbito de las ciencias naturales pueda entender esa idea y respetarla. No están preparados para entender o respetar una teoría si no está planteada de esa forma. No es tanto una nueva teoría, entonces, sino una traducción a un nuevo lenguaje de algo que ya sabíamos hace tiempo. Por eso que pienso que una de las principales tareas de la antropología es demostrar que hay formas distintas de ver las cosas, diferentes a lo que hoy es corriente en economía o en psicología. En ese sentido la antropología es una disciplina antidisciplinaria ya que está contra la idea de que todo el terreno del conocimiento puede dividirse en diferentes países, que estudian diferentes disciplinas. Además, la antropología es totalmente antiacadémica. Nos apoyamos en el mundo académico para existir pero siempre desafiando el modelo académico de producción de conocimiento. La antropología nos dice todo el tiempo que la gente con la que trabajamos es la que conoce lo que pasa, que deberíamos aprender de ellos.

Usted fue uno de los primeros en criticar la separación que se hizo a lo largo de la historia entre naturaleza y cultura. Este es un debate que se está dando ahora en otras disciplinas, fuera de la antropología. Y si bien hay un acuerdo respecto de que hay que superar esa división no parece existir un acuerdo hacia dónde se dirige esa alternativa, ¿Cuál sería su propuesta?

Mi propuesta es procesual, relacional y vinculada con el desarrollo o crecimiento. Los conceptos de naturaleza y cultura son sustantivos. Tendemos a pensar en el mundo como algo que ya existe de entrada. Pero en vez de esto, supongamos que el mundo del que hablamos es un mundo que se está haciendo todo el tiempo, que no es nunca el mismo de un momento al otro. En cada momento este mundo se esta revelando, desarrollando. Tenemos entonces que pensar en términos de verbos, más que de sustantivos, como algo que se está convirtiendo en lo que es. Y entonces podemos pensar en las formas que vemos como surgiendo de ese proceso. Por ejemplo, el biólogo supone que la forma ya está prefigurada en el ADN de un organismo y la única cosa que hace la vida es revelar esa forma. La alternativa que propongo es pensar que esas formas de vida, de organismos, de artefactos, son patrones emergentes que surgen de un proceso de desarrollo o crecimiento que se está llevando a cabo de manera continua. Las formas surgen del proceso que les da lugar. Hay que empezar a hablar de desarrollo entonces.

¿Habla del desarrollo a nivel de los individuos o de los grupos?

No veo que haya individuos versus grupos. El organismo es un lugar en un campo de relaciones. Volvamos otra vez al paisaje: se puede tomar un lugar dentro de ese paisaje y ese lugar estará creciendo, se estará desarrollando: eso es el organismo. Tenemos que dejar de pensar en individuos y grupos y comenzar a pensar en posicionalidad, en lugares o puntos en un campo de relaciones. Eso es lo que me satisface de la Teoría de los Sistemas de Desarrollo, que permite pensar en esos términos. Por ejemplo, normalmente se piensa en las habilidades como transmitidas de una generación a la otra. Para mí, nada se transmite. Las habilidades crecen de nuevo, se recrean con cada generación. Lo que una generación contribuye a la siguiente son los contextos de aprendizaje en los cuales los novicios pueden redescubrir por ellos mismos lo que sus predecesores ya conocían. Vamos a un ejemplo: supongamos que hay un granjero que tiene una granja y que muchas generaciones después sus descendientes siguen cultivando esa granja. La gente que se enmarca dentro de la Teoría de Construcción de Nicho diría que ese es un ejemplo de herencia ecológica, ya que el primer granjero creó un nicho y se los pasó a sus descendientes. Pero la realidad es que esa tierra cambió. En un sentido legal se puede decir que el descendiente heredó la tierra pero en un sentido práctico el descendiente trabaja esa tierra y la mantiene productiva gracias a su trabajo. Así seguramente usó técnicas totalmente distintas a las que usaba su abuelo. Y descubrió las cosas que conocía su abuelo pero al mismo tiempo descubrió cosas nuevas. El trabajo de una generación armó las condiciones del trabajo de la siguiente. Y eso no es otra cosa que la historia. Lo cual nos lleva a que hay que romper la división entre historia y evolución. No podemos tener una teoría en historia y otra en evolución. Necesitamos una teoría general de la evolución que se enfrente al darwinismo, como hizo la teoría de Einstein respecto de la de Newton. La física newtoniana sirve, funciona, pero sabemos que no es del todo correcta y que el universo no funciona exactamente así. Lo mismo pasa con el paradigma darwiniano: funciona la mayor parte del tiempo pero en lo que respecta a la historia humana no es exactamente así. Necesitamos una teoría para la cual el darwinismo sea un caso especial.

En el mapa académico usted no parece una figura fácilmente clasificable. ¿Usted, cómo se definiría?

Bueno es gracioso porque yo siempre me pensé como un antropólogo. Siempre pensé que la antropología es la única disciplina que puede unir a las ciencias naturales y a las humanidades, de una forma que no sea reduccionista y sin sacarlas de la realidad, sino comprometida con ella. Pero fui en esa dirección y al hacerlo me alejé cada vez más de la antropología tal como se practica hoy. Creo que eso habla también de lo que le pasó a la antropología en estos últimos tiempos: por lo menos en Gran Bretaña: está fuera de los debates importantes. En los debates que se escuchan en los medios, uno ve historiadores, psicólogos, biólogos pero no se ven antropólogos. Están por fuera de todas las grandes preguntas: qué significa ser humano, los problemas ambientales, etcétera. Los antropólogos tienen cosas terriblemente importantes para decir sobre eso pero, en cambio, se escuchan a los economistas o psicólogos difundiendo malentendidos que nos llevará años corregir. Esto no es enteramente culpa de los antropólogos, porque la popularización de la ciencia en los medios depende de una fórmula particular. Si se trabaja en publicidad hay que ser muy consciente de lo que la gente quiere o piensa, darle un giro y venderlo bajo una nueva forma. La popularización de la ciencia hace exactamente eso. Toma lo que la gente piensa, le da un nuevo enfoque y se lo ofrece de nuevo al público diciéndole que es el último adelanto en investigación científica. Obviamente los antropólogos no están preparados para jugar ese juego. La antropología trabaja para poner todas las certezas en cuestión. Y eso a la gente no le gusta. Por eso a la antropología le resulta difícil venderse sin comprometer sus principios. Pero tampoco me parece bien que se hayan abandonado las grandes preguntas. Para despertar algún interés, la antropología debería hacerse esas preguntas. La disciplina está sufriendo una cierta crisis de confianza, posiblemente relacionada con un ambiente académico inseguro: no hay muchos puestos laborales y por eso los estudiosos se ocupan de los temas pequeños, tratando de sobrevivir enfatizando el tema que sienten que los hace diferentes. Y eso no es una buena estrategia si querés salir al ruedo público y hacer ruido.

¿Qué nota de distinto entre la antropología británica y la que se hace en los distintos países de Latinoamérica?

Durante esta visita me encontré con gente de la Universidad de San Martín y fue muy interesante porque, por un lado la antropología que ellos están enseñando es una antropología social muy tradicional, la que me era familiar en los sesenta, cuando era estudiante. Pero ellos me dicen que esa antropología significa algo muy diferente en la Argentina. Porque aquí la antropología política se compromete con las peleas que se están dando en el país mientras que en Gran Bretaña la antropología política está desconectada de la vida política de la nación. Otro es el caso de Brasil: están muy influenciados por Francia y Norteamérica pero son lo suficientemente fuertes, ingeniosos y poderosos como para desarrollar sus propias aproximaciones. Del resto de Latinoamérica no puedo hablar demasiado.

Finalmente, ¿cuál es el papel que tiene la antropología en esta época?

Todas las disciplinas tienen subidas y bajadas. Hay momentos en que algunas son muy poderosas y llevan la delantera a las demás. En los años 50 y principios de los 60 la antropología iba a la vanguardia. Los antropólogos británicos eran líderes entre los intelectuales: Edmond Leach, Evans Pritchard, Raymond Firth, estaban en la radio, escribían en los diarios, eran figuras públicas. Hoy en día eso no pasa y hay otras disciplinas que tomaron la delantera. Creo que ese es uno de los resultados de la tendencia contemporánea de la antropología a retrotraerse dentro de la etnografía y olvidarse las grandes preguntas.

Disease Burden Links Ecology to Economic Growth (Science Direct)

Dec. 27, 2012 — A new study, published Dec. 27 in the open access journal PLOS Biology, finds that vector-borne and parasitic diseases have substantial effects on economic development across the globe, and are major drivers of differences in income between tropical and temperate countries. The burden of these diseases is, in turn, determined by underlying ecological factors: it is predicted to rise as biodiversity falls. This has significant implications for the economics of health care policy in developing countries, and advances our understanding of how ecological conditions can affect economic growth.

According to conventional economic wisdom, the foundation of economic growth is in political and economic institutions. “This is largely Cold War Economics about how to allocate property rights — with the government or with the private sector,” says Dr Matthew Bonds, an economist at Harvard Medical School, and the lead author of the new study. However, Dr Bonds and colleagues were interested instead in biological processes that transcend such institutions, and which might form a more fundamental economic foundation.

The team was intrigued by the fact that tropical countries are generally composed of poor agrarian populations while countries in temperate regions are wealthier and more industrialized. This distribution of income is inversely related to the burden of disease, which peaks at the equator and falls along a latitudinal gradient. Although it is common to conclude that economics drives the pattern of disease, the authors point out that most of the diseases that afflict the poor spend much of their life-cycle outside the human host. Many cannot even survive outside the tropics. Their distribution is largely determined by ecological factors, such as temperature, rainfall, and soil quality.

Because of the high correlations between poverty and disease, determining the effects of one on the other was the central challenge of their statistical analysis. Most previous attempts to address this topic ignored disease ecology, argue Bonds and colleagues. The team assembled a large data set for all of the world’s nations on economics, parasitic and infectious vector-borne diseases, biodiversity (mammals, birds and plants) and other factors. Knowing that diseases are partly determined by ecology, they used a powerful set of statistical methods, new to macroecology, that allowed variables that may have underlying relationships with each other to be teased apart.

The results of the analysis suggest that infectious disease has as powerful an effect on a nation’s economic health as governance, say the authors. “The main asset of the poor is their own labor,” says Dr Bonds. “Infectious diseases, which are regulated by the environment, systematically steal human resources. Economically speaking, the effect is similar to that of crime or government corruption on undermining economic growth.”

This result has important significance for international aid organizations, as it suggests that money spent on combating disease would also stimulate economic growth. Moreover, although diversity of human diseases is highly correlated with diversity of surrounding species, the study indicates that the burden of such human disease actually drops when biodiversity rises. The analysis is inconclusive about why this effect is so strong. The authors suggest that competition and predation limit the survival of disease vectors and free-living parasites where biodiversity is high. The research sets the stage for a number of future analyses that need to lay bare the relationship between health care funding and economic development.

Journal Reference:

  1. Matthew H. Bonds, Andrew P. Dobson, Donald C. Keenan.Disease Ecology, Biodiversity, and the Latitudinal Gradient in IncomePLoS Biology, 2012; 10 (12): e1001456 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.1001456

AL aprova lei que institui Sistema Estadual de REDD+ em MT (ICV)

André Alves – Especial para o Institutto Centro de Vida – ICV

21/12/2012

A Assembleia Legislativa de Mato Grosso aprovou nesta quarta-feira (19/12) projeto de lei que cria o Sistema Estadual de REDD+ em Mato Grosso. O projeto, de autoria do poder executivo, segue agora para a sanção do governador Silval Barbosa (PMDB) e não deverá sofrer alterações no texto. O sistema tem como objetivo promover a redução das emissões dos gases de efeito estufa com origem no desmatamento e degradação florestal e também estimular o manejo florestal sustentável, além do aumento de estoques de carbono no estado.

“A aprovação desta lei representa um marco regulatório para o estado, pois vamos compartilhar os benefícios da conservação ambiental”, declarou o secretário estadual de Meio Ambiente Vicente Falcão. “É uma conquista do governo, mas também da sociedade civil que durante dois anos discutiu uma proposta que veio na maturidade certa”, complementou.

O texto aprovado na Assembleia prevê ainda a participação efetiva dos diferentes grupos sociais envolvidos ou afetados pelas ações de REDD. Ou seja, os projetos e programas de desmatamento evitado em áreas de assentamentos ou terras indígenas, por exemplo, terão que atender as demandas dessas comunidades, além de prever um mecanismo de distribuição justa de benefícios.

Para o secretário a implantação de um sistema de REDD+ consolida as políticas ambientais e significa um passo importante para cumprir a meta de reduzir o desmatamento no estado em 89% até o ano de 2020. “Agora há uma nova leitura, pois além do comando e controle vamos ter instrumentos de incentivo para inibir o desmatamento”, concluiu.

Laurent Micol, coordenador executivo do Instituto Centro de Vida – ICV, entidade que coordena o GT REDD no Fórum Mato-grossense de Mudanças Climáticas, explica que com a aprovação da lei, Mato Grosso assume um protagonismo nacional em relação a instrumentos de desmatamento evitado. “Os futuros projetos e programas de redução de desmatamento em andamento poderão se enquadrar na lei assim como os futuros projetos terão que assegurar as questões sociais e ambientais previstas na lei”, explicou. “Há também uma maior segurança para os investidores e doadores para estes projetos e programas”, completou. Micol usou como exemplo a recente doação do banco alemão KFW que repassou 8 milhões de reais ao governo do Acre, o primeiro estado na Amazônia a ter uma legislação com esta finalidade, como pagamento por serviços ambientais.

A discussão da proposta da lei começou com a instituição do Grupo de Trabalho REDD, em março de 2009, no âmbito do Fórum Mato-grossense de Mudanças Climáticas. O grupo trabalhou durante dois anos na elaboração da proposta, que foi debatida em consultas públicas e recebeu propostas de modificações pela internet. Ao todo foram 171 proposições que foram analisadas até a versão final da minuta ser validada pelo Fórum.

Assim que sancionada a lei, o governo deverá instituir o Conselho Gestor do Sistema Estadual de REDD+, que terá função deliberativa. O conselho terá 12 representantes e será paritário entre governo estadual e federal com a sociedade civil. Enquanto isso, o GT REDD está trabalhando na proposta de um programa setorial para o manejo florestal para ser apresentado a Secretaria de Estado de Meio Ambiente (Sema).

Sobre o GT REDD

O GT REDD MT conta com 78 membros, incluindo a Sema e outras secretarias estaduais, a Procuradoria do Estado, a Assembleia Legislativa, representações de organizações dos setores agropecuário, florestal, organizações da sociedade civil e movimentos sociais, a Ordem dos Advogados do Brasil e a Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso. O ICV foi eleito para coordenar e facilitar os trabalhos do grupo.

REDD+

REDD+ é a sigla em inglês para Redução de Emissões por Desmatamento e Degradação Florestal, incluindo a conservação e ao manejo das florestas e o aumento dos estoques de carbono.

Outras informações ICV: 65 3621-3148

On the end of the world / sobre o fim do mundo (21.12.2012)

O mundo não acabou (Folha de S.Paulo)

Contardo Calligaris – 27/12/2012 – 03h00

Pode ser que o mundo acabe entre hoje (segunda, dia em que escrevo) e quinta, 27, dia em que seria publicada esta coluna. Em tese, eu não devo me preocupar: meu título não será desmentido –pois, se o mundo acabar, não haverá mais ninguém para verificar que eu me enganei.

Tudo isso, em termos, pois o fim do mundo esperado (mais ou menos ansiosamente) por alguns (ou por muitos) não é o sumiço definitivo e completo da espécie. Ao contrário: em geral, quem fantasia com o fim do mundo se vê como um dos sobreviventes e, imaginando as dificuldades no mundo destruído, aparelha-se para isso.

Na cultura dos EUA, os “survivalists” são também “preppers”: ou seja, quem planeja sobreviver se prepara. A catástrofe iminente pode ser mais uma “merecida” vingança divina contra Sodoma e Gomorra, a realização de uma antiga profecia, a consequência de uma guerra (nuclear, química ou biológica), o efeito do aquecimento global ou, enfim (última moda), o resultado de uma crise financeira que levaria todos à ruina e à fome.

A preparação dos sobreviventes pode incluir ou não o deslocamento para lugares mais seguros (abrigos debaixo da terra, picos de montanhas que, por alguma razão, serão poupados, lugares “místicos” com proteção divina, plataformas de encontro com extraterrestres etc.), mas dificilmente dispensa a acumulação de bens básicos de subsistência (alimentos, água, remédios, combustíveis, geradores, baterias) e (pelo seu bem, não se esqueça disso) de armas de todo tipo (caça e defesa) com uma quantidade descomunal de munições -sem contar coletes a prova de balas e explosivos.

Imaginemos que você esteja a fim de perguntar “armas para o quê?”. Afinal, você diria, talvez a gente precise de armas de caça, pois o supermercado da esquina estará fechado. Mas por que as armas para defesa? Se houver mesmo uma catástrofe, ela não poderia nos levar a descobrir novas formas de solidariedade entre os que sobraram? Pois bem, se você coloca esse tipo de perguntas, é que você não fantasia com o fim do mundo.

Para entender no que consiste a fantasia do fim do mundo, não é preciso comparar os diferentes futuros pós-catastróficos possíveis. Assim como não é preciso considerar se, por exemplo, nos vários cenários desolados do dia depois, há ou não o encontro com um Adão ou uma Eva com quem recomeçar a espécie. Pois essas são apenas variações, enquanto a necessidade das armas (e não só para caçar os últimos coelhos e faisões) é uma constante, que revela qual é o sonho central na expectativa do fim do mundo.

Em todos os fins do mundo que povoam os devaneios modernos, alguns ou muitos sobrevivem (entre eles, obviamente, o sonhador), mas o que sempre sucumbe é a ordem social. A catástrofe, seja ela qual for, serve para garantir que não haverá mais Estado, condado, município, lei, polícia, nação ou condomínio. Nenhum tipo de coletividade instituída sobreviverá ao fim do mundo. Nele (e graças a ele) perderá sua força e seu valor qualquer obrigação que emane da coletividade e, em geral, dos outros: seremos, como nunca fomos, indivíduos, dependendo unicamente de nós mesmos.

Esse é o desejo dos sonhos do fim do mundo: o fim de qualquer primazia da vida coletiva sobre nossas escolhas particulares. O que nos parece justo, no nosso foro íntimo, sempre tentará prevalecer sobre o que, em outros tempos, teria sido ou não conforme à lei.

Por isso, depois do fim do mundo, a gente se relacionará sem mediações –sem juízes, sem padres, sem sábios, sem pais, sem autoridade reconhecida: nós nos encararemos, no amor e no ódio, com uma mão sempre pronta em cima do coldre.

E não é preciso desejar explicitamente o fim do mundo para sentir seu charme. A confrontação direta entre indivíduos talvez seja a situação dramática preferida pelas narrativas que nos fazem sonhar: a dura história do pioneiro, do soldado, do policial ou do criminoso, vagando num território em que nada (além de sua consciência) pode lhes servir de guia e onde nada se impõe a não ser pela força.

Na coluna passada, comentei o caso do jovem que matou a mãe e massacrou 20 crianças e seis adultos numa escola primária de Newtown, Connecticut. Pois bem, a mãe era uma “survivalist”; ela se preparava para o fim do mundo. Talvez, junto com as armas e as munições acumuladas, ela tenha transmitido ao filho alguma versão de seu devaneio de fim do mundo.

*   *   *

Are You Prepared for Zombies? (American Anthropological Association blog)

By Joslyn O. – December 21, 2012 at 12:52 pm

 

In light of all the end of the world talk, a repost of this Zombie preppers post from last spring:

Today’s guest blog post is by cultural anthropologist and AAA member, Chad Huddleston. He is an Assistant Professor at St. Louis University in the Sociology, Anthropology and Criminal Justice department.

Recently, a host of new shows, such as Doomsday Preppers on NatGeo and Doomsday Bunkers on Discovery Channel, has focused on people with a wide array of concerns about possible events that may threaten their lives.  Both of these shows focus on what are called ‘preppers.’ While the people that may have performed these behaviors in the past might have been called ‘survivalists,’ many ‘preppers’ have distanced themselves from that term, due to its cultural baggage: stereotypical anti-government, gun-loving, racist, extremists that are most often associated with the fundamentalist (politically and religiously) right side of the spectrum.

I’ve been doing fieldwork with preppers for the past two years, focusing on a group called Zombie Squad. It is ‘the nation’s premier non-stationary cadaver suppression task force,’ as well as a grassroots, 501(c)3 charity organization.  Zombie Squad’s story is that while the zombie removal business is generally slow, there is no reason to be unprepared.  So, while it is waiting for the “zombpacolpyse,” it focuses its time on disaster preparedness education for the membership and community.

The group’s position is that being prepared for zombies means that you are prepared for anything, especially those events that are much more likely than a zombie uprising – tornadoes, an interruption in services, ice storms, flooding, fires, and earthquakes.

For many in this group, Hurricane Katrina was the event that solidified their resolve to prep.  They saw what we all saw – a natural disaster in which services were not available for most, leading to violence, death and chaos. Their argument is that the more prepared the public is before a disaster occurs, the less resources they will require from first responders and those agencies that come after them.

In fact, instead of being a victim of natural disaster, you can be an active responder yourself, if you are prepared.  Prepare they do.  Members are active in gaining knowledge of all sorts – first aid, communications, tactical training, self-defense, first responder disaster training, as well as many outdoor survival skills, like making fire, building shelters, hunting and filtering water.

This education is individual, feeding directly into the online forum they maintain (which has just under 30,000 active members from all over the world), and by monthly local meetings all over the country, as well as annual national gatherings in southern Missouri, where they socialize, learn survival skills and practice sharpshooting.

Sound like those survivalists of the past?  Emphatically no.  Zombie Squad’s message is one of public education and awareness, very successful charity drives for a wide array of organizations, and inclusion of all ethnicities, genders, religions and politics.  Yet, the group is adamant on leaving politics and religion out of discussions on the group and prepping. You will not find exclusive language on their forum or in their media.  That is not to say that the individuals in the group do not have opinions on one side or the other of these issues, but it is a fact that those issues are not to be discussed within the community of Zombie Squad.

Considering the focus on ‘future doom’ and the types of fears that are being pushed on the shows mentioned above, usually involve protecting yourself from disaster and then other people that have survived the disaster, Zombie Squad is a refreshing twist to the ‘prepper’ discourse.  After all, if a natural disaster were to befall your region, whom would you rather be knocking at your door: ‘raiders’ or your neighborhood Zombie Squad member?

And the answer is no: they don’t really believe in zombies.

 

Roussolph the red-nosed reindeer (FT)

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/12/24/roussolph-the-red-nosed-reindeer/#ixzz2GHguUlpl

Dec 24, 2012 2:00pm by Henry Mance

This year, the Christmas tale from beyondbrics takes us to the up-and-coming area of Brics-ton, where Roussolph the Brazilian reindeer has been unceremoniously dumped from Santa Capital’s portfolio.

Read on…

Santa: Right, listen up. This year’s sleigh team is the same as last year’s, except that the Latin American representative will be Peña Nieto of Mexico, who takes over from Roussolph. Talking of glossy hair gel, please welcome our new chief caribou Xi Jinping.

Roussolph: You can’t ditch/ underweight me! What about my wonderful shiny red nose?

Santa: It’s your red nose that’s the problem. Some children think you’re a socialist. Who trusts a socialist to deliver the goodies?

Roussolph: But Xi is a communist!

Santa: And yet he says all the right things.

Xi Jinping: Hello. Let’s fight corruption! Goodbye.

Santa: See? He also waves and smiles.

Roussolph: Fine. But remember my antlers – they’re the sixth biggest in the world!

David Camerolph: They’re not any more. Frightfully sorry, but ours are.

Roussolph: Overtaken by the omnishambles?! Why aren’t my antlers growing faster?

[Enter Guido the Forecasting Elf]

Guido the Elf: Great news! Next year your antlers will grow by one metre!

Roussolph: How do you know?

Guido the Elf: I stuck my finger in the air.

Roussolph: Eh?

Guido the Elf: I mean, I have performed a thorough calculation. I got predictions from all the other elves then doubled them.

Roussolph: Oh, Guido. You’re as persistent as Argentine bond hold-out – and about as helpful. Why don’t I sack you?

Guido the Elf: Because the Economist told you to?

Roussolph: Alas. Where did it all go wrong? Whatever happened to the shining ‘B’ of emerging markets – rich in resources, loved by investors, finally overcoming years of corrupt government…

Santa: Do you mean Bur—

Roussolph: NO, I DO NOT MEAN BURMA. Is Burma hosting the World Cup?

Guido the Elf: The World Cup! I knew there was something I was meant to be preparing for. How many stadiums was it?

[Exits, pursued by a bear]

Roussolph: Oh, this is like a Greek tragedy.

Bluff the Magic Draghi [entering]: Did someone call for me?

Roussolph: The Magic Draghi! Thank goodness. Do you remember the good times? When everyone loved my red nose?

Draghi: When they called you exotic – but in a good way?

Roussolph: They would look at me and whisper, “Oh, what a lovely pair of commodities ” … and no one would ever say, “but a pity the roads back to your place are so bad.”

Draghi: You deserve better than this ! I have a simple solution. With my magic, I can turn back time, using only the power of liquidity!

Roussolph: please, turn it back!

Draghi: Back you go! To the time you were future! To the days your red nose shone most proudly! Back to the 1970s!

Roussolph: Saved at last! I’ll definitely be in the sleigh portfolio next year!

Draghi: Yes! Now what was that tune…

Roussolph the Reindeer [all join in and sing:]

You know old Vladdy Putin
And shiny Xi Jinping
There’s smooth Peña Nieto
And shy Manmohan Singh
But do you recall
The boldest EM reindeer of all?

Roussolph the red-nosed reindeer,
Busy as a jumping bean.
Each time she saw a problem,
Thought the state should intervene.

Vanquished fund managers
Even dared to call her names
(like “Cristina”).
They made sure poor Roussolph
Never saw no share price gains
(Remember Petrobras?).

Then one growth-free Christmas Eve
Santa came to say,
“Roussolph, oh your nose so bright
Gives investors quite a fright!”

All of the other reindeers
Were smitten with anxiety.
Maybe some emerging markets
Haven’t learnt their history?

Apologies to Johnny Marks

 

Don’t Blame Autism for Newtown (New York Times)

By PRISCILLA GILMAN – Published: December 17, 2012

LAST Wednesday night I listened to Andrew Solomon, the author of the extraordinary new book “Far From the Tree,” talk about the frequency of filicide in families affected by autism. Two days later, I watched the news media attempt to explain a matricide and a horrific mass murder in terms of the killer’s supposed autism.

It began as insinuation, but quickly flowered into outright declaration. Words used to describe the killer, Adam Lanza, began with “odd,” “aloof” and “a loner,” shaded into “lacked empathy,” and finally slipped into “on the autism spectrum” and suffering from “a mental illness like Asperger’s.” By Sunday, it had snowballed into a veritable storm of accusation and stigmatization.

Whether reporters were directly attributing Mr. Lanza’s shooting rampage to his autism or merely shoddily lumping together very different conditions, the false and harmful messages were abundant.

Let me clear up a few misconceptions. For one thing, Asperger’s and autism are not forms of mental illness; they are neurodevelopmental disorders or disabilities. Autism is a lifelong condition that manifests before the age of 3; most mental illnesses do not appear until the teen or young adult years. Medications rarely work to curb the symptoms of autism, but they can be indispensable in treating mental illness like obsessive-compulsive disorder, schizophrenia and bipolar disorder.

Underlying much of this misreporting is the pernicious and outdated stereotype that people with autism lack empathy. Children with autism may have trouble understanding the motivations and nonverbal cues of others, be socially naïve and have difficulty expressing their emotions in words, but they are typically more truthful and less manipulative than neurotypical children and are often people of great integrity. They can also have a strong desire to connect with others and they can be intensely empathetic — they just attempt those connections and express that empathy in unconventional ways. My child with autism, in fact, is the most empathetic and honorable of my three wonderful children.

Additionally, a psychopathic, sociopathic or homicidal tendency must be separated out from both autism and from mental illness more generally. While autistic children can sometimes be aggressive, this is usually because of their frustration at being unable to express themselves verbally, or their extreme sensory sensitivities. Moreover, the form their aggression takes is typically harmful only to themselves. In the very rare cases where their aggression is externally directed, it does not take the form of systematic, meticulously planned, intentional acts of violence against a community.

And if study after study has definitively established that a person with autism is no more likely to be violent or engage in criminal behavior than a neurotypical person, it is just as clear that autistic people are far more likely to be the victims of bullying and emotional and physical abuse by parents and caregivers than other children. So there is a sad irony in making autism the agent or the cause rather than regarding it as the target of violence.

In the wake of coverage like this, I worry, in line with concerns raised by the author Susan Cain in her groundbreaking book on introverts, “Quiet”: will shy, socially inhibited students be looked at with increasing suspicion as potentially dangerous? Will a quiet, reserved, thoughtful child be pegged as having antisocial personality disorder? Will children with autism or mental illness be shunned even more than they already are?

This country needs to develop a better understanding of the complexities of various conditions and respect for the profound individuality of its children. We need to emphasize that being introverted doesn’t mean one has a developmental disorder, that a developmental disorder is not the same thing as a mental illness, and that most mental illnesses do not increase a person’s tendency toward outward-directed violence.

We should encourage greater compassion for all parents facing an extreme challenge, whether they have children with autism or mental illness or have lost their children to acts of horrific violence (and that includes the parents of killers).

Consider this, posted on Facebook yesterday by a friend of mine from high school who has an 8-year-old, nonverbal child with severe autism:

“Today Timmy was having a first class melt down in Barnes and Nobles and he rarely melts down like this. He was throwing his boots, rolling on the floor, screaming and sobbing. Everyone was staring as I tried to pick him up and [his brother Xander] scrambled to pick up his boots. I was worried people were looking at him and wondering if he would be a killer when he grows up because people on the news keep saying this Adam Lanza might have some spectrum diagnosis … My son is the kindest soul you could ever meet. Yesterday, a stranger looked at Timmy and said he could see in my son’s eyes and smile that he was a kind soul; I am thankful that he saw that.”

Rather than averting his eyes or staring, this stranger took the time to look, to notice and to share his appreciation of a child’s soul with his mother. The quality of that attention is what needs to be cultivated more generally in this country.

It could take the form of our taking the time to look at, learn about and celebrate each of the tiny victims of this terrible shooting. It could manifest itself in attempts to dismantle harmful, obfuscating stereotypes or to clarify and hone our understanding of each distinct condition, while remembering that no category can ever explain an individual. Let’s try to look in the eyes of every child we encounter, treat, teach or parent, whatever their diagnosis or label, and recognize each child’s uniqueness, each child’s inimitable soul.

Priscilla Gilman is the author of “The Anti-Romantic Child: A Memoir of Unexpected Joy.”

The Decline of the ‘Great Equalizer’ (The Atlantic)

DEC 19 2012, 9:15 AM – DAVID ROHDE, KRISTINA COOKE, AND HIMANSHU OJHA

Massachusetts, home to America’s best schools and best-educated workforce, has seen income inequality soar. Why? The poor are losing an academic arms race with the rich.

615 student silhouette.jpg

Reuters

“Education then, beyond all other devices of human origin, is a great equalizer of the conditions of men — the balance wheel of the social machinery.”
Horace Mann, pioneering American educator, 1848

“In America, education is still the great equalizer.”
Arne Duncan, U.S. Secretary of Education, 2011

BOSTON – When Puritan settlers established America’s first public school here in 1635, they planted the seed of a national ideal: that education should serve as the country’s “great equalizer.”

Americans came to believe over time that education could ensure that all children of any class had a shot at success. And if any state should be able to make that belief a reality, it was Massachusetts.

The Bay State is home to America’s oldest school, Boston Latin, and its oldest college, Harvard. It was the first state to appoint an education secretary, Horace Mann, who penned the “equalizer” motto in 1848. Today, Massachusetts has the country’s greatest concentration of elite private colleges, and its students place first in nationwide Department of Education rankings.

Yet over the past 20 years, America’s best-educated state also has experienced the country’s second-biggest increase in income inequality, according to a Reuters analysis of U.S. Census data. As the gap between rich and poor widens in the world’s richest nation, America’s best-educated state is among those leading the way.

Between 1989 and 2011, the average income of the state’s top fifth of households jumped 17 percent. The middle fifth’s income dropped 2 percent, and the bottom fifth’s fell 9 percent. Massachusetts now has one of the widest chasms between rich and poor in America: It is the seventh-most unequal of the 50 states, according to a Reuters ranking of income inequality. Two decades ago, it placed 23rd.

If the great equalizer’s ability to equalize America is dwindling, it’s not because education is growing less important in the modern economy. Paradoxically, it’s precisely because schooling is now even more important.

Screen Shot 2012-12-19 at 9.10.22 AM.png

One force behind rising inequality, in both America and other advanced economies, is well-known. The decline of manufacturing and the replacement of clerks and secretaries with software mean there are fewer high-paying jobs for low-skilled workers.

The good jobs that do exist increasingly require higher education: Since the recession started in the U.S. in 2007, the number of jobs needing a college degree has risen by 2.2 million, according to a recent Georgetown University study. The number of jobs for mere high-school graduates fell by 5.8 million.

FALLING BEHIND THE RICHJust to stay even, poorer Americans need to obtain better credentials. But that points to another rich-poor divide in the United States. Educators call it the scholastic “achievement gap.” It has been around forever, but it’s getting wider. Lower-class children are getting better educations than before. But richer kids are outpacing their gains, which in turn is stoking the widening income gap.

Across the country, a Stanford University study found last year, the achievement gap between rich and poor students on standardized tests is 30 to 40 percent wider than it was a quarter-century ago. Because excellent students are more likely to grow rich, the authors argued, income inequality risks becoming more entrenched.

“Now, we’re in a situation where we need to educate everyone at the level of the elite in the past,” said Paul Reville, Massachusetts secretary of education. “We don’t have a system to do that.”

It’s an academic arms race, and it can be seen in the sharply contrasting fortunes of Weston, a booming Boston suburb, and the blue-collar community of Gardner, where a 20-foot-tall chair sits on Elm Street as a monument to the town’s past as a furniture-manufacturing hub.

The percentage of Gardner children bound for four-year colleges has held steady at about half in the past decade, and median incomes have tumbled as furniture makers headed south or overseas. Gardner High School graduate Curtis Dorval dropped out of the University of Massachusetts this year after his father, a Walmart worker, ran short of money. He’s working at a Walmart now, too, and then heading off to the military.

In Weston, hedge-fund managers are tearing down modest homes to build mansions. Per-capita incomes have leaped 161 percent in the past two decades, and the high school is sending 96 percent of its graduates to universities.

Tanner Skenderian, president of the class of 2012, is now at Harvard; in her graduation speech, she told her classmates to “reach for the moon.”

VICIOUS CYCLE

This correlation between educational attainment and financial fortune is clear statewide. In the bottom fifth of Massachusetts households, the average income dropped 9 percent in the past 20 years to $12,000. They fared worse despite a sizable gain in educational attainment: The share of people 25 and older in the group with a bachelor’s degree rose to 18.5 percent from 11 percent.

The same thing happened to the middle fifth. Their average income slipped 2 percent to $63,000. The share of adults with a bachelor’s rose to 43 percent from 29 percent.

But the top fifth saw their average income leap 17 percent, to $217,000, as their education levels soared far higher. Three-quarters had a bachelor’s, up from half. Fully 50 percent had a post-graduate degree, up from a quarter.

GRAPHIC: Degrees of inequity: Bay State households at all levels of income are getting better educations. But only the richest are seeing income rise.

Some Massachusetts officials say they fear a vicious cycle is taking hold, in which income inequality and educational inequality feed off each other. Democrats and Republicans agree that the increased disparity is a threat to economic mobility in the state. But as in much of the rest of the United States, they disagree over what to do about it. Democrats argue the solution is more – and earlier – schooling. Republicans believe traditional public schools are part of the problem.

The education gap is just one factor behind growing inequality. The U.S. economy has been so weak that large numbers of graduates are underemployed: In 2010, according to Andy Sum, director of the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University in Boston, only 59 percent of Massachusetts adults with a bachelor’s degree were in jobs that actually required one.

Long-term changes in marriage patterns matter, too, because they are stoking the educational-attainment gap that in turn feeds the income chasm.

People are increasingly more likely to marry their educational equal, Sum’s research finds, creating well-paid two-income couples at the top. At the bottom fifth, the number of single-parent families has risen 15 percent since 1990. Those parents have lower incomes and less time to devote to their children’s schooling. In a pattern echoed nationwide, 70 percent of Massachusetts families with children in the bottom fifth are headed by a single parent – compared with 7 percent in the top fifth.

“All the evidence shows that children born to two highly educated, high-income people tend to obtain the highest level of academic achievement,” said Sum. “At the bottom, where the mom is not that well-educated and tends to have lower income, children tend to do worse.”

EDUCATED BUT MEDIOCRE

A brainier workforce alone isn’t sufficient to drive growth, though. Even as education levels in the Bay State have risen lately, faster growth hasn’t followed. Between 2000 and 2010, Sum found, Massachusetts ranked just 37th in job creation. In fact, none of the 10 states with the top students placed in the top 10 on payroll growth.

“The best educated states were overwhelmingly mediocre in job creation,” he wrote in a study last year. He urges states to complement education with such steps as tax credits, infrastructure spending and on-the-job training.

Seventy miles northwest of Boston, Gardner once touted itself as the “chair-making capital of the world.” The factories employed thousands of workers who supported large families on single incomes. The first workplace time-recorder was invented here, too; as a result of its adoption, “punching the clock” became part of the vernacular.

Today, the factories have gone south or closed. Gardner still calls itself the furniture capital of New England but because of its outlet stores, not its factories. The biggest employers are a hospital and a community college. Retail jobs at Walmart and other chains have replaced better-paying factory work. Between 1989 and 2009, the town’s per capita income slipped 19 percent to $18,000.

A town of some 20,000 people, Gardner has roughly twice the population of wealthy Weston, but spends just 60 percent as much on education. The town’s high school has had six principals in the past eight years.

Even kids who excel at Gardner High School increasingly face financial hurdles after they graduate, say teachers and students. Mayor Mark Hawke said cost routinely prices high-achieving students out of elite private colleges. “It happens every day,” he said.

David Dorval, 47, was laid off in 2009 after working at an area hospital registering patients for 16 years. Dorval, who has an associate’s degree, struggled to find work, and he and his wife divorced. Today he takes home $1,000 a month at Walmart in Gardner and pays half of his earnings to his ex-wife in child support. He goes to his 79-year-old mother’s house for lunch each day.

“I don’t feel like I am able to do what my parents were able to do,” he said. “My parents were able to support eight kids.”

PRICED OUT

His son, Curtis Dorval, works at Walmart as well. When he was a senior at Gardner High School, Curtis was class president. He was accepted by Northeastern University, a private school in Boston.

But Northeastern cost $50,000 a year, which Curtis, then 17, felt he couldn’t afford. Instead, he enrolled last year at the state-run University of Massachusetts Amherst, studying mechanical engineering. With the help of a scholarship for graduating in the top quarter of his class, Curtis paid $10,200 a year.

He got some help from his father, who had saved up $10,000 in stocks and bonds from his days in the hospital job. This summer, that money ran out and Curtis left UMass to enlist in the Air Force. He will serve as an airman – and hopes to use military benefits to pay for parttime university classes.

“The main reason was I needed a way to pay for college,” he said.

David Dorval quickly used up his savings for Curtis's education. New England's excellent colleges are America's priciest - some 25 percent above the U.S. average. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

David Dorval quickly used up his savings for Curtis’s education. New England’s excellent colleges are America’s priciest – some 25 percent above the U.S. average. (Brian Snyder/Reuters)

That is the flip side of New England’s excellent universities: They are the most expensive in the country, according to a study by the College Board. A four-year education at a public or private university costs nearly one-fourth more than the national average.

Sticker shock is forcing those who do stay in college to pass up elite private schools for cheaper state ones. That’s also happening in the middle-class town of Leominster, a former plastics-manufacturing center 15 miles east of Gardner.

Among last year’s top students was Eric Marcoux, co-leader of the robotics team and member of the National Honor Society. He was accepted to Worcester Polytechnic Institute, a top private engineering university. WPI offered him a $20,000 annual scholarship – but he and his family still faced taking on roughly $30,000 a year in debt. Marcoux chose the University of Massachusetts Lowell, where he’ll have to borrow only half as much.

“It was a lot of going back and forth,” said Marcoux, whose dream is to work for Google. “It was a hard decision but I think it was the right one.”

Trading down can carry a stiff cost: A Harvard study published this year found that students who go to Massachusetts state colleges are less likely to graduate than those who attend Massachusetts private colleges.

The state has tried to help poorer kids. In the early 1990s, Massachusetts sharply increased state funding of local elementary and secondary schools and mandated comprehensive testing. The overhaul was designed to improve student performance and eradicate the achievement gap.

THE SAT GAP

Twenty years later, Massachusetts spends $4.8 billion a year on its public schools, up 83 percent from 1990. Children from lower income families have improved their scores on tests, but their results still lag, as a look at results from the Scholastic Aptitude Tests makes clear.

In the state’s five wealthiest school districts, students had average scores ranging from 594 to 621 on the 800-point college-admissions test in 2009-2010. In the five poorest districts for which data are available, the SAT scores averaged from 403 to 469.

Reville, the education secretary, wants a redoubled push on childhood education: The 1990s reforms were good but didn’t go far enough. “There is no way for someone who is poorly educated to be self-sufficient,” he said. “It’s in our national interest to do something that we should have done morally anyway.”

What he proposes is sweeping change.

Income depends on educational achievement, and the single best predictor of a child’s likelihood of academic success remains in turn the socio-economic status of his or her mother, said Reville. The solution to erasing the achievement gap involves, in essence, providing low-income students with the advantages their wealthier peers enjoy: pre-school at the age of three, tutors, summer camps, and after-school activities like sports and music lessons. Schools could contract with outside organizations to provide those activities, or lengthen their school day or school year by one-third.

Asked how much such an initiative might cost, Reville responded, “How much would it cost to give every child an upper-middle-class life?”

Such talk makes Massachusetts Republicans blanch. They say they care about income disparities that harm people’s ability to move up the income ladder. Americans are now less likely to move to a higher economic class in their lifetime than Western Europeans or Canadians, according to a number of recent studies.

Republicans argue that the problem is not resources in the public schools: Massachusetts already ranks No. 8 in the amount of money states spend per student, according to the Census Bureau.

CHOICE AND CHARTERS

“What Reville is suggesting is wraparound social services,” said Jim Stergios, executive director of the Pioneer Institute, a conservative think tank in Boston. “We think decentralized decision-making in the schools makes more sense.”

Instead of spending more, Stergios said, give parents greater choice over which schools their children attend. Expand the use of charter schools, financed by the public but managed independently. Make cities strictly follow the course of study set out by the state. Increase the accountability of teachers by linking pay to student test scores.

“We haven’t closed the (achievement) gap because the Massachusetts curriculum isn’t being taught rigorously enough in the urban areas, principals don’t have enough power and independence, and there’s a cap on charter schools,” said Stergios. “That’s why we haven’t seen the great equalizer working as it should.”

Adding to the complexity of addressing the income and educational gaps is a widening geographical divide in the state.

In Massachusetts, some 230,000 people were unemployed in October, Conference Board data show, and roughly 140,000 unfilled jobs were advertised online. Skilled professions, including software engineers and web developers, topped the list. Nearly seven out of 10 vacancies were in the Boston area.

Harvard economist Ed Glaeser calls this the new reality of a knowledge-based global economy. More than ever, innovation, growth and opportunity are clustered in large cities such as Boston. Let decaying factory towns become ghost towns. Instead of building better transportation links, Glaeser believes their inhabitants should be encouraged to move to the closest economic hub.

“In 1940, you wanted to be in an area with resources for your mill,” he said. “In 2012, you want to be in a cluster of smart people.”

CLASS CLUSTERS

Weston, where Glaeser himself lives, is such a cluster. But it isn’t for everyone. Its house prices and real estate taxes put it out of reach for most Massachusetts residents, which points up a conundrum.

As those who can afford to do so head for the clusters, inequality grows. Across the state, communities are becoming more homogenous by income group, said Ben Forman, research director at think tank MassInc.

“There are definitely more Westons now than there were a couple of decades ago,” Forman said. “What the research shows is that more economic segregation leads to high-income children performing better and better and lower-income children falling behind.”

The Boston suburbs where Weston is located are home to the most-educated workforce in the nation’s best-educated state, according to the Boston Federal Reserve.

A Reuters analysis of Census and American Community Survey data found that two-thirds of working-age adults in Weston and surrounding towns had at least a bachelor’s degree in 2010. That’s more than double the national average of 28 percent. Just 23 percent of their peers in Gardner and its neighbors had a bachelor’s or better. As earnings fell in Gardner they soared in Weston. In 1990, Weston residents made 3.5 times more than Gardnerites. By 2009, it was 12 to 1.

On a summer Tuesday afternoon, a man was reading a copy of “Horseback Riding for Dummies” outside Bruegger’s Bagels, the sole fast-food chain that Weston has allowed to open as it tries, with mixed success, to preserve its historic character.

One hedge-fund manager built a 22-room mansion with a basketball court, pool and 10-car garage. Another tore down two homes to build a private equestrian center for his wife and daughter with an indoor riding ring.

WESTON’S ADVANTAGES

Town leaders say they are struggling to keep the town from becoming even wealthier. “We have three selectmen who are trying to find ways to diversify our population with affordable housing,” said Michael Harrity, chairman of the board of selectmen. “It’s difficult when lots are selling for $700,000 for teardowns.”

One area where development is warmly welcome is education. This fall, the town opened a new $13 million science wing for Weston High School that includes nine state-of-the art labs and a multimedia conference center.

Weston High is one of the finest public schools in the country. In 2011, 96 percent of its graduates planned to go on to four-year degree programs. In Gardner, only about half did. Nationally, a 2011 University of Michigan study found that the gap in college-completion rates between rich and poor students has grown by about half since the late 1980s.

Those differentials have a long-term impact. An American with a bachelor’s degree earns on average about $1 million more over a lifetime than one with just some college, according to recent studies.

Another advantage Weston kids have is their involved and demanding parents.

Gardner High has no parent-teacher organization. In Weston, parents raised $300,000 last year for additional after-school activities in the public schools. Top scientists living in Weston help with school science fairs. Parental involvement is so intense that three parents sit on the interview panel for every prospective new teacher. Stay-at-home Weston mothers attend meetings of student-body leaders and help students organize events. They’re known as “Grade Moms”.

‘VERY FORTUNATE’
At Harvard Yard. A study ranked Massachusetts No. 1 in education, No. 37 in job creation. REUTERS/Brian SnyderAt Harvard Yard. A study ranked Massachusetts No. 1 in education, No. 37 in job creation. (Brian Snyder/Reuters)

Liz Hochberger, a recent president of the Weston Parent-Teacher Organization, said the town’s excellent public schools had become a “self-fulfilling prophecy.” Professors from Harvard and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, along with the wealthy, move to Weston for its public schools, which further improves test scores and college acceptance rates. “Whenever someone is moving to this area and they research the schools,” Hochberger said, “this is always on the list.”

Tanner Skenderian, president of this year’s Weston High graduating class, joked in a speech about her town’s hyper-competitive students. “Welcome to Weston, where third graders take AP Physics, middle-school students sleep for 42 minutes a night, and the most competitive race run by the 2012 boys state champion track team was the race to get the cookies in the cafeteria,” she said.

Competition in high school was fierce. In one advanced placement physics class, she said, six of the 12 students were the children of professors at MIT, America’s premier science university.

But Tanner thrived there. She also found school to be a source of support after her father died while she was in middle school. This fall, she headed to Harvard, after spending the summer interning at the governor’s office. Given the job market, she said she may apply to business or law school after graduating.

Weston, in short, gave her an education that raises her odds of joining her mother – who owns a marketing and event-planning company – at the top of America’s economic ladder.

“We’re very fortunate that we’re rather affluent,” she said. “We have more opportunities, more technology, more classes and more teachers.”

_____

Edited by Michael Williams and Janet Roberts. See more at our Income Inequality homepage.

Água marginalizada: O reflexo da sociedade (Envolverde)

9/12/2012 – 10h35

por Sarah Bueno Motter e Giovani de Oliveira, da EcoAgência

Diluvio Água marginalizada: O reflexo da sociedade

O Dilúvio é o maior riacho que corta a cidade de Porto Alegre. Foto: Divulgação/Internet

As margens são um limite. Até onde o Dilúvio vai, até onde ele pode ir. Balizado pelo concreto humano, o arroio que corta a capital faz parte da rotina da cidade. Em suas margens, estão os congestionamentos e a ansiedade de Porto Alegre. Nas suas beiradas, está, na hora do rush, o stress de querer chegar rápido ao outro lado da cidade e não conseguir a velocidade pretendida. A poluição que corre dentro do Dilúvio também passa nos seus limiares, os quais são contaminados pela exaustão da sociedade perante sua rotina.

As margens do Dilúvio transbordam o vazio de nossa civilização que corre apressada sem nem saber o motivo. Que deixa à sua margem aqueles que não têm o capital e as oportunidades iguais, aqueles que não têm o carro, aqueles que não têm a casa. Esses ficam às margens.

As bordas também refletem as novas tendências. O desejo da ciclovia, do transporte limpo. Elas falam de um novo caminho que a cidade “quer” abrir. Um caminho para o sustentável.

Mas a sustentabilidade não caminha junto da miséria e da desigualdade e ela não é parceira do descaso. A sustentabilidade não está nas aparências. Ela não é balizada por frágeis mudanças sem conteúdo maciço, sem a pretensão de uma metamorfose. Ela não parte do nada e não chega a lugar nenhum. Ela não se inaugura com uma quadra de ciclovia, ela é uma estrada inteira.

A água, quando cai no Dilúvio, faz o barulho característico dos riachos, aquele som que muitas vezes queremos levar para casa, comprando uma fonte de decoração. O barulho é tão bonito e característico, mas o concreto afasta a cidade da natureza, que suja de nossos resíduos, continua seu caminho. As margens do Dilúvio são uma síntese do que somos. Os carros, os excluídos, a sujeira, os “novos caminhos” e a natureza que teima e vive entre o cinza da ambição humana.

O Dilúvio é o símbolo de uma sociedade precária, individualista e agressiva. Como muitas das crianças que moram embaixo de suas pontes, suas águas são agredidas desde o começo de sua vida. Já em sua nascente, na Lomba do Sabão, o arroio é violentado pela ocupação irregular da área. Famílias, sem condições de moradia, ocupam um local protegido por lei, e jogam seus dejetos nas águas do Dilúvio. Pessoas violentadas pela sociedade do ter, sem espaço para tentar ser, violentam também o arroio e invadem seu espaço.

Espaço que cada vez existe menos. Espaço cada vez mais ocupado pelo lixo, espaço que nós não temos mais. O espaço que poderia ser de lazer, de contato com a natureza em meio à cidade, torna-se um espaço do qual fugimos. Não a toa, algumas pessoas defendem que se cubra o Dilúvio. Defendem uma grande tampa de concreto, que não cure a ferida, mas nos impeça de ver ou sentir.

Mas incrivelmente, violentado do começo ao fim, o Dilúvio segue vivo, suas águas, são a moradia de peixes, pescados por improváveis gaivotas porto-alegrenses. E suas margens, costeadas pelo cinza, ainda conservam um verde, que insiste em se manter vivo.

* Publicado originalmente no site EcoAgência.

Bullying by Childhood Peers Leaves a Trace That Can Change the Expression of a Gene Linked to Mood (Science Daily)

Dec. 18, 2012 — A recent study by a researcher at the Centre for Studies on Human Stress (CSHS) at the Hôpital Louis-H. Lafontaine and professor at the Université de Montréal suggests that bullying by peers changes the structure surrounding a gene involved in regulating mood, making victims more vulnerable to mental health problems as they age.

The study published in the journal Psychological Medicine seeks to better understand the mechanisms that explain how difficult experiences disrupt our response to stressful situations. “Many people think that our genes are immutable; however this study suggests that environment, even the social environment, can affect their functioning. This is particularly the case for victimization experiences in childhood, which change not only our stress response but also the functioning of genes involved in mood regulation,” says Isabelle Ouellet-Morin, lead author of the study.

A previous study by Ouellet-Morin, conducted at the Institute of Psychiatry in London (UK), showed that bullied children secrete less cortisol — the stress hormone — but had more problems with social interaction and aggressive behaviour. The present study indicates that the reduction of cortisol, which occurs around the age of 12, is preceded two years earlier by a change in the structure surrounding a gene (SERT) that regulates serotonin, a neurotransmitter involved in mood regulation and depression.

To achieve these results, 28 pairs of identical twins with a mean age of 10 years were analyzed separately according to their experiences of bullying by peers: one twin had been bullied at school while the other had not. “Since they were identical twins living in the same conditions, changes in the chemical structure surrounding the gene cannot be explained by genetics or family environment. Our results suggest that victimization experiences are the source of these changes,” says Ouellet-Morin. According to the author, it would now be worthwhile to evaluate the possibility of reversing these psychological effects, in particular, through interventions at school and support for victims.

Journal Reference:

  1. I. Ouellet-Morin, C. C. Y. Wong, A. Danese, C. M. Pariante, A. S. Papadopoulos, J. Mill, L. Arseneault. Increased serotonin transporter gene (SERT) DNA methylation is associated with bullying victimization and blunted cortisol response to stress in childhood: a longitudinal study of discordant monozygotic twinsPsychological Medicine, 2012; DOI: 10.1017/S0033291712002784

Renee Lertzman: the difficulty of knowledge

By Renee Lertzman / December 16, 2012

The notion that one can feel deeply, passionately about a particular issue – and not do anything in practically about it – seems to have flummoxed the broader environmental community.

Why else would we continue to design surveys and polls gauging public opinions about climate change (or other serious ecological threats)? Such surveys – even high profile, well funded mass surveys – continue to reproduce pernicious myths regarding both human subjectivity and the so-called gaps between values and actions.

It is no surprise that data surfacing in a survey or poll will stand in stark contrast to the ‘down and dirty’ world of actions. We all know that surveys invoke all sorts of complicated things like wanting to sound smart/good/moral, one’s own self-concept vs. actual feelings or thoughts, and being corralled into highly simplistic renderings of what are hugely complex topics or issues (“do you worry about climate change/support carbon tax/drive to work each day etc?”). So there is the obvious limitation right now. However, more important is this idea that the thoughts or ideas people hold will translate into their daily life. Reflect for a moment on an issue you care very deeply about. Now consider how much in alignment your practices are, in relation with this issue. It takes seconds to see that in fact, we can have multiple and competing desires and commitments, quite easily.

So why is it so hard for us to carry this over into how we research environmental values, perceptions or beliefs?

If we accept from the get-go that we are complicated beings living in hugely complicated contexts, woven into networks extending far beyond our immediate grasp, it makes a lot of sense that I can care deeply for my children’s future quality of life (and climatic conditions), and still carry on business as usual. I may experience deep conflict, guilt, shame and pain, which I can shove to the edges of consciousness. I may manage to not even think about these issues, or create nifty rationalizations for my consumptive behaviors.

However, this does not mean I don’t care, have deep concern, and even profound anxieties.

Until we realize this basic fact – that we are multiple selves in social contexts, and dynamic and fluid – our communications work will be limited. Why? Because we continue to speak with audiences, design messaging, and carry out research with the mythical unitary self in mind. We try to trick, cajole, seduce people into caring about our ecological treasures. This is simply the wrong track. Rather than trick, why not invite? Rather than overcome ‘barriers,’ why not presume dilemmas, and set out to understand them?

There is also the fact that some knowledge is just too difficult to bear.

The concept of “difficult knowledge” relates to the fact that when we learn, we also let go of cherished beliefs or concepts, and this can be often quite painful. How we handle knowledge, in other words, can and should be done with this recognition. How can we best support one another to bear difficult knowledge?

One of the tricks of the trade for gifted psychotherapists is the ability to listen and converse. The therapist listens; not only for the meaning, but where there may be resistance. The places that make us squirm or laugh nervously or change the topic. This is regarded as where the riches lie – where we may find ourselves stuck despite our best intentions. If we were to practice a bit of this in our own work in environmental communications, my guess is we’d see less rah-rah cheerleading engagement styles, and more ‘let’s be real and get down to business’ sort of work.

And this is what we need, desperately.

Emerging Ethical Dilemmas in Science and Technology (Science Daily)

Dec. 17, 2012 — As a new year approaches, the University of Notre Dame’s John J. Reilly Center for Science, Technology and Values has announced its inaugural list of emerging ethical dilemmas and policy issues in science and technology for 2013.

The Reilly Center explores conceptual, ethical and policy issues where science and technology intersect with society from different disciplinary perspectives. Its goal is to promote the advancement of science and technology for the common good.

The center generated its inaugural list with the help of Reilly fellows, other Notre Dame experts and friends of the center.

The center aimed to present a list of items for scientists and laypeople alike to consider in the coming months and years as new technologies develop. It will feature one of these issues on its website each month in 2013, giving readers more information, questions to ask and resources to consult.

The ethical dilemmas and policy issues are:

Personalized genetic tests/personalized medicine

Within the last 10 years, the creation of fast, low-cost genetic sequencing has given the public direct access to genome sequencing and analysis, with little or no guidance from physicians or genetic counselors on how to process the information. What are the potential privacy issues, and how do we protect this very personal and private information? Are we headed toward a new era of therapeutic intervention to increase quality of life, or a new era of eugenics?

Hacking into medical devices

Implanted medical devices, such as pacemakers, are susceptible to hackers. Barnaby Jack, of security vendor IOActive, recently demonstrated the vulnerability of a pacemaker by breaching the security of the wireless device from his laptop and reprogramming it to deliver an 830-volt shock. How do we make sure these devices are secure?

Driverless Zipcars

In three states — Nevada, Florida, and California — it is now legal for Google to operate its driverless cars. Google’s goal is to create a fully automated vehicle that is safer and more effective than a human-operated vehicle, and the company plans to marry this idea with the concept of the Zipcar. The ethics of automation and equality of access for people of different income levels are just a taste of the difficult ethical, legal and policy questions that will need to be addressed.

3-D printing

Scientists are attempting to use 3-D printing to create everything from architectural models to human organs, but we could be looking at a future in which we can print personalized pharmaceuticals or home-printed guns and explosives. For now, 3-D printing is largely the realm of artists and designers, but we can easily envision a future in which 3-D printers are affordable and patterns abound for products both benign and malicious, and that cut out the manufacturing sector completely.

Adaptation to climate change

The differential susceptibility of people around the world to climate change warrants an ethical discussion. We need to identify effective and safe ways to help people deal with the effects of climate change, as well as learn to manage and manipulate wild species and nature in order to preserve biodiversity. Some of these adaptation strategies might be highly technical (e.g. building sea walls to stem off sea level rise), but others are social and cultural (e.g., changing agricultural practices).

Low-quality and counterfeit pharmaceuticals

Until recently, detecting low-quality and counterfeit pharmaceuticals required access to complex testing equipment, often unavailable in developing countries where these problems abound. The enormous amount of trade in pharmaceutical intermediaries and active ingredients raise a number of issues, from the technical (improvement in manufacturing practices and analytical capabilities) to the ethical and legal (for example, India ruled in favor of manufacturing life-saving drugs, even if it violates U.S. patent law).

Autonomous systems

Machines (both for peaceful purposes and for war fighting) are increasingly evolving from human-controlled, to automated, to autonomous, with the ability to act on their own without human input. As these systems operate without human control and are designed to function and make decisions on their own, the ethical, legal, social and policy implications have grown exponentially. Who is responsible for the actions undertaken by autonomous systems? If robotic technology can potentially reduce the number of human fatalities, is it the responsibility of scientists to design these systems?

Human-animal hybrids (chimeras)

So far scientists have kept human-animal hybrids on the cellular level. According to some, even more modest experiments involving animal embryos and human stem cells violate human dignity and blur the line between species. Is interspecies research the next frontier in understanding humanity and curing disease, or a slippery slope, rife with ethical dilemmas, toward creating new species?

Ensuring access to wireless and spectrum

Mobile wireless connectivity is having a profound effect on society in both developed and developing countries. These technologies are completely transforming how we communicate, conduct business, learn, form relationships, navigate and entertain ourselves. At the same time, government agencies increasingly rely on the radio spectrum for their critical missions. This confluence of wireless technology developments and societal needs presents numerous challenges and opportunities for making the most effective use of the radio spectrum. We now need to have a policy conversation about how to make the most effective use of the precious radio spectrum, and to close the digital access divide for underserved (rural, low-income, developing areas) populations.

Data collection and privacy

How often do we consider the massive amounts of data we give to commercial entities when we use social media, store discount cards or order goods via the Internet? Now that microprocessors and permanent memory are inexpensive technology, we need think about the kinds of information that should be collected and retained. Should we create a diabetic insulin implant that could notify your doctor or insurance company when you make poor diet choices, and should that decision make you ineligible for certain types of medical treatment? Should cars be equipped to monitor speed and other measures of good driving, and should this data be subpoenaed by authorities following a crash? These issues require appropriate policy discussions in order to bridge the gap between data collection and meaningful outcomes.

Human enhancements

Pharmaceutical, surgical, mechanical and neurological enhancements are already available for therapeutic purposes. But these same enhancements can be used to magnify human biological function beyond the societal norm. Where do we draw the line between therapy and enhancement? How do we justify enhancing human bodies when so many individuals still lack access to basic therapeutic medicine?

Should Physicians Prescribe Cognitive Enhancers to Healthy Individuals? (Science Daily)

Dec. 17, 2012 — Physicians should not prescribe cognitive enhancers to healthy individuals, states a report being published today in the Canadian Medical Association Journal (CMAJ)Dr. Eric Racine and his research team at the IRCM, the study’s authors, provide their recommendation based on the professional integrity of physicians, the drugs’ uncertain benefits and harms, and limited health care resources.

Prescription stimulants and other neuropharmaceuticals, generally prescribed to treat attention deficit disorder (ADD), are often used by healthy people to enhance concentration, memory, alertness and mood, a phenomenon described as cognitive enhancement.

“Individuals take prescription stimulants to perform better in school or at work,” says Dr. Racine, a Montréal neuroethics specialist and Director of the Neuroethics research unit at the IRCM. “However, because these drugs are available in Canada by prescription only, people must request them from their doctors. Physicians are thus important stakeholders in this debate, given the risks and regulations of prescription drugs and the potential for requests from patients for such cognitive enhancers.”

The prevalence of cognitive enhancers used by students on university campuses ranges from 1 per cent to 11 per cent. Taking such stimulants is associated with risks of dependence, cardiovascular problems, and psychosis.

“Current evidence has not shown that the desired benefits of enhanced mental performance are achieved with these substances,” explainsCynthia Forlini, first author of the study and doctoral student in Dr. Racine’s research unit. “With uncertain benefits and clear harms, it is difficult to support the notion that physicians should prescribe a medication to a healthy individual for enhancement purposes.”

“Physicians in Canada provide prescriptions through a publicly-funded health care system with expanding demands for care,” adds Ms. Forlini. “Prescribing cognitive enhancers may therefore not be an appropriate use of resources. The concern is that those who need the medication for health reasons but cannot afford it will be at a disadvantage.”

“An international bioethics discussion has surfaced on the ethics of cognitive enhancement and the role of physicians in prescribing stimulants to healthy people,” concludes Dr. Racine. “We hope that our analysis prompts reflection in the Canadian medical community about these cognitive enhancers.”

Éric Racine’s research is funded through a New Investigator Award from the Canadian Institutes for Health Research (CIHR). The report’s co-author is Dr. Serge Gauthier from the McGill Centre for Studies in Aging.

Journal Reference:

  1. Cynthia Forlini, Serge Gauthier, and Eric Racine. Should physicians prescribe cognitive enhancers to healthy individuals? Canadian Medical Association Journal, 2012; DOI: 10.1503/cmaj.121508