Arquivo da tag: Mudanças climáticas

Mudanças climáticas e suas consequências já causam milhares de mortes (ONU Brasil)

Doenças associadas à poluição do ar deixaram sete milhões de pessoas mortas em 2012, segundo a OMS. Foto: Banco Mundial / Curt Carnemark

Doenças associadas à poluição do ar deixaram sete milhões de pessoas mortas em 2012, segundo a OMS. Foto: Banco Mundial / Curt Carnemark

Doenças relacionadas à presença de partículas na atmosfera provocaram a morte 7 milhões de pessoas em 2012. Aumento dos preços dos combustíveis poderia reduzir emissões de carbono, cortar pela metade mortes causadas por poluição e gerar 3 trilhões de dólares por ano, mais da metade dos gastos de saúde do planeta.

A Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) destacou nesta terça-feira (17) que as mudanças climáticas já causam milhares de mortes todos os anos, provocadas por fenômenos extremos, enchentes e secas e pela degradação da qualidade do ar, da água e dos alimentos. Segundo a agência da ONU, a situação tende a se agravar, caso os Estados-membros não adotem ações decisivas na Conferência do Clima de Paris, em dezembro.

De acordo com previsões da OMS, as mudanças climáticas poderão provocar, entre 2030 e 2050, 25 mil mortes por ano, associadas a infecções como malária e diarreia, a ondas de calor e a subnutrição. Outro fator preocupante é a poluição do ar. Doenças relacionadas à presença de partículas na atmosfera deixaram 7 milhões de pessoas mortas em 2012. Mulheres, crianças e os mais pobres em países de baixa renda serão os mais afetados no futuro.

Para a OMS, ações de combate às mudanças climáticas, como o investimento em desenvolvimento de baixo carbono e o uso de energias renováveis, trazem ganhos tanto para o meio ambiente, quanto para a saúde de todos. Segundo a agência, intervenções que reduzam as emissões de poluentes como o carbono negro e o metano e que restrinjam as emissões de veículos podem salvar 2,4 milhões de vidas por ano e reduzir em 0,5ºC o aquecimento do planeta até 2050.

A agência também afirmou que a atribuição de preços mais altos para combustíveis poluentes, de modo a compensar impactos de saúde negativos, pode reduzir as emissões de dióxido de carbono em 20% e cortar pela metade o número de mortes causadas pela poluição do ar. As restrições poderiam gerar lucros de 3 trilhões de dólares por ano, valor que representa mais da metade dos gastos de saúde de todos os governos do mundo. (ONU Brasil/ #Envolverde)

* Publicado originalmente no site ONU Brasil.

Video: Drought, Climate, Security, and Syria (Skeptical Science)

Posted on 13 November 2015 by greenman3610

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections

 

Drought, water, war, and climate change” is the title of this month’s Yale ClimateConnections video exploring expert assessments of the interconnections between and among those issues.

With historic 1988 BBC television footage featuring Princeton University scientist Syukuru (“Suki”) Manabe and recent news clips and interviews with MIT scientist Kerry Emanuel, Ohio State University scientist Lonnie Thompson, CNN reporter Christiane Amanpour, and New York Times columnist and book author Tom Friedman, the six-minute video plumbs the depths of growing climate change concerns among national security experts.

Friedman, in footage from the 2014 Showtime “Years of Living Dangerously” nine-episode documentary, points to a NOAA analysis that climate change has caused the Mediterranean region, in Friedman’s words, “to dry up . . . . leading to longer and more severe droughts.” Friedman in that piece pointed out that severe droughts struck Syria – “which is right at the epicenter” of the worst impacts — in the four years leading up to the Syrian revolution.

MIT scientist Kerry Emanuel points to increasing concerns among military experts over climate change. “These are not sandal-wearing, fruit juice-drinking hippies from the sixties,” he says. “These are serious folk” concerned about “significant geopolitical impacts around the world.”

CNN reporter Christiane Amanpour reports that climate change and dwindling water supplies “may have helped fuel Syria’s war.” She says drought in Syria from 2006 through 2010 “scorched 60 percent of Syria’s land, and it killed 80 percent of livestock in some regions, putting three-quarters of the farmers out of work, and ultimately displacing 1.5 million people.”

“While no one’s claiming a direct cause and effect” relationship, Amanpour says, “the drought did bring on the diaspora from dying farms and over-crowded cities, and thereby put enormous economic and social pressures on an already fractured society.”

The video ends with Lonnie Thompson pointing to Tibet’s numerous glaciers and the Indus River flowing through China, Pakistan, and India.  All, he says, are “nuclear-powered countries,” each of them dependent on the Indus for water supplies . . . “all geopolitical hot-spots in the future” with a big stake on the glaciers increasingly under stress in a warming climate.

James Cameron wants you to fight global warming by changing what you eat (Washington Post)

 November 18

James Cameron speaking during a forum at the 2012 Beijing Film Academy. AFP/Getty Images)

There are few films more environmentally infused than the highest grossing one in history, “Avatar” — in which a highly militarized mining company seeks to exploit the resources of the rich forest world of Pandora. But less known is how the film’s director, James Cameron, has also used some of the money made from “Avatar” to champion an array of green causes, even as he’s also using clean energy to power the film’s three planned sequels.

“We put in a 1 megawatt solar array on the roof of the soundstages where we’re doing the ‘Avatar’ sequels, so we’ll be net energy neutral there,” Cameron told The Washington Post recently. “We’ll sell back to the grid and it will balance back over the time when we’re working and when we’re not working.”

It’s just one of the many green initiatives the director has undertaken. Heck, he even designed his own solar sunflowers, and they’re pretty cool looking.

(He’s also a noted underwater explorer: In 2012 Cameron undertook a historic dive 35,787 feet deep into the Mariana Trench.)

Cameron spoke Wednesday morning in Washington at Greenbuild, a major conference on green buildings sponsored by the U.S. Green Building Council. Projected population growth means there will be massive construction in new cities around the world, Cameron told The Post. “If all those buildings are constructed the way we’ve traditionally constructed buildings it will be an enormous spike in greenhouse gas emissions,” he adds.

But one of his most unique recent environmental causes has focused on what we eat — meat and dairy, particularly — and how it relates to climate change. This topic has long been a kind of elephant in the room of environmental discussions – and now Cameron is pointing straight at the elephant.

“When you add it all up, it comes up to about 14.5 percent of greenhouse gas comes from the animal agriculture sector,” Cameron says. “That’s bigger than all transportation combined.”

Granted, the gases aren’t just carbon dioxide — the leading, long-lived atmospheric greenhouse gas. They also include methane, which is harder hitting but dissipates much faster — and in this context chiefly comes from so-called “enteric fermentation” (digestion and subsequent burps) in cows and other livestock — and nitrous oxide, emitted by fertilizers and manure. The 14.5 percent figure was affirmed by Chatham House, a London-based think tank, which also calculated that livestock drives 39 percent of human-caused global methane emissions and 65 percent of human induced nitrous oxide emissions.

You can’t fix global warming without fixing carbon dioxide — it has a longer atmospheric residence time than these other gases, and is the dominant greenhouse gas in general. But Cameron observes that because agriculture is so closely tied to deforestation — in many places around the globe, forests are being cleared for cattle and other agricultural activities — it’s also in effect a major source of CO2 to the atmosphere.

Moreover, given global goals to keep global warming between 2 degrees Celsius, it has often been observed that taking action on non-CO2 gases with greater immediate warming consequences, like methane, can buy us some time.

There have been proposed techno-fixes to the problem of agricultural emissions — including the intriguing idea of changing the chemistry going on in cows’ rumens (one chamber of their stomachs)  by feeding them a “methane inhibitor” powder, which has been proved in published research to work. DSM, the Dutch life-sciences company, is developing this product.

[Meet the ‘clean cow’ technology that could help fight climate change]

But there’s also changing what we consume and, in effect, driving market-based changes on a global scale. On the latter front, Cameron and his wife, Suzy Amis Cameron, founded the Food Choice Taskforce, seeking to change our diets, and thereby, lessen climate change and other environmental impacts. “It’s a viable choice, it’s essentially a thermostat that’s being handed to us that we can use to turn down climate change,” Cameron says.

The group is supported in part by the private Avatar Alliance Foundation, which Cameron endowed with some of the film’s proceeds. The foundation has also supported Chatham House’s research on agriculture and the environment.

According to Chatham House, international negotiations to address climate change naturally target the energy and transportation sectors, and the forest and land use sector — but for a complex set of reasons, they have just as traditionally overlooked agriculture. The report contended that “dietary change is essential if global warming is not to exceed two degrees Celsius – the stated objective of the international community.”

“I think they’re basically unachievable goals if we don’t embrace the way we eat as well as part of it. But nobody’s talking about it,” says Cameron.

Granted, there are signs of momentum lately. The U.S. Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee, for instance, recently made major waves when it included environmental concerns to its assessment of our diets. “Current evidence shows that the average U.S. diet has a larger environmental impact in terms of increased greenhouse gas emissions, land use, water use, and energy use,” the report noted, compared with more plant-based diets. Meanwhile,   the World Health Organization’s International Agency for Research on Cancer recently declared processed meats a carcinogen.

When it comes to the U.S. dietary guidelines committee — a group of scientists who provide advice, but do not set official policy, it seems a particularly auspicious sign. “For the first time, the issue that I’ve been screaming about has been codified as advice to the government,” says Cameron.

More general, Cameron — who is just as much a wonk  about climate change and ocean science as one presumes that he is about the technical aspects of filmmaking — thinks the tide is turning.

“It feels like climate denialism is starting to look like it’s really on the wrong side of history for a greater majority every day,” says Cameron. “Momentum is building in a great direction.”

Conta das mudanças climáticas é mais alta para nações ricas (O Globo)

ActionAid calcula que países desenvolvidos devem doar 0,1% do PIB a fundo comum

POR O GLOBO

18/11/2015 6:00

 

Mulheres polonesas conversam em frente à usina: países desenvolvidos não pagam valores justos para atenuar mudanças climáticas, diz ONG – JOE KLAMAR/AFP

RIO — Um novo estudo da ONG ActionAid denunciou ontem a diferença abissal entre as quantias exigidas e as doadas pelos países desenvolvidos para que as nações mais pobres criem medidas de adaptação contra as mudanças climáticas. Em 2013, foram destinados cerca de US$ 5 bilhões para o combate ao aquecimento global. Na próxima década, serão necessários US$ 150 bilhões por ano para combater os eventos extremos. O debate sobre financiamento está entre as prioridades da Conferência do Clima de Paris, a partir do dia 30.

De acordo com o instituto, as nações ricas deveriam dedicar pelo menos 0,1% de seu PIB a um fundo climático internacional. É um índice 70 vezes menor do que o gasto em 2008 para a adoção de políticas contra a recessão econômica.

Os EUA deveriam aumentar suas contribuições aos países pobres em mais de 154 vezes, passando dos US$ 440 milhões gastos em 2013 para US$ 67,5 bilhões em 2025.

A União Europeia precisa multiplicar os seus investimentos em 11 vezes, passando dos US$ 3,2 bilhões vistos em 2013 para US$ 36,9 bilhões em 2025.

Os cálculos são baseados nas emissões históricas — a contribuição atribuída a cada país para provocar as mudanças climáticas — e em sua capacidade de ajudar financeiramente, levando em conta os dados da Organização para a Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OCDE).

Especialista em financiamento climático da ActionAid, Brandon Wu acredita que os países em desenvolvimento estão enfrentando sozinhos “uma crise que não causaram”.

— O problema não é falta de dinheiro — assegura. — Os EUA, por exemplo, gastam muito mais em subsídios para os combustíveis fósseis do que em medidas de adaptação ao clima. É falta de vontade política.

IMPASSE HISTÓRICO

Wu avalia que o financiamento contra as mudanças climáticas pode ser o item mais polêmico entre os discutidos na Conferência do Clima. Tradicionalmente, os países ricos e pobres discordam sobre o tamanho do rombo, e as nações desenvolvidas não concordam em assumir totalmente as indenizações contra o aquecimento global, eximindo economias emergentes, como China e Brasil, de qualquer compromisso financeiro.

— Um novo acordo (global sobre o clima) não é possível sem esclarecimento sobre como serão as finanças — pondera. — Os países em desenvolvimento não podem adaptar suas economias, livrando-as das emissões de carbono, sem apoio internacional. Talvez não consigamos saber exatamente quanto será investido por cada país, mas precisamos impor novos prazos e objetivos. Aqueles discutidos até agora são vagos demais.

Já Osvaldo Stella, diretor do Programa de Mudanças Climáticas do Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia, acredita que as negociações financeiras não devem ser uma prioridade.

— O mais importante é discutir que metas podem impedir o avanço da temperatura global — defende. — O financiamento é um jogo político. Resistimos a abandonar o petróleo, da mesma forma como, antes, não queríamos largar o carvão. Mais do que abrir o cofre, precisamos pensar em um novo modelo econômico, que tipo de capitalismo devemos adotar.

Site monitora em tempo real emissões de CO2 do setor elétrico no Brasil (Estadão)

Giovana Girardi

19/11/2015

Produção em termoelétricas cresceu 171,2% de 2011 a 2014 

Produção em termoelétricas cresceu 171,2% de 2011 a 2014 

De 2011 a 2014, as emissões de gases de efeito estufa do setor elétrico no Brasil cresceram 171%, enquanto a geração de energia subiu apenas 11%. A quantidade de gás carbônico (CO2) emitido por gigawatt de energia gerado passou de 32,26 para 133. Hoje o País – conhecido por ter uma matriz elétrica mais limpa, por conta da forte presença de hidrelétricas – está sujando sua geração de energia.

Dados como esses, na escala de anos, meses, semanas e dias, estão disponíveis a partir desta quinta-feira, 19, em uma nova ferramenta que monitora a geração e as emissões do setor no País. Trata-se de um subproduto do Seeg – sistema que estima desde 2013 as emissões anuais de gases de efeito estufa brasileiras. O levantamento, que traz dados totais e por setor, é feito paralelamente ao oficial do governo federal e tem oferecido essas informações de modo mais ágil.

Além dos dados anuais, agora também será possível acompanhar praticamente em tempo real como está se comportando o setor elétrico. A ferramenta entra no ar nesta quinta-feira junto com o novo relatório anual, que trará os dados de 2014. “Ter os dados anuais mostra a tendência e é muito importante. Mas aí as coisas já aconteceram. O que vemos no monitoramento em tempo real é que as decisões que são tomadas no dia a dia têm um tremendo impacto nas emissões. Isso acontece com o consumo de combustíveis, com a energia elétrica. Se mudar o preço do álcool ou da gasolina, por exemplo, muda a emissão. Então a gente queria capturar isso para poder fazer esse debate sobre as emissões e as decisões que a gente está tomando”, explica Tasso Azevedo, coordenador do Seeg.

O produto é o primeiro do que deve se tornar a série Seeg Monitor. “Começamos com o setor elétrico porque foi onde vimos que houve mais variação. Foi onde mais cresceram as emissões nos últimos quatro anos”, diz Azevedo. “E vemos que varia todo dia, toda semana, todo mês, com base nas decisões tomadas. Em três dias às vezes vemos uma variação de 15%”, complementa.

Crise hídrica. Ele se refere, por exemplo, à decisão de acionar mais as usinas termoelétricas, o que vem ocorrendo por conta da seca que atinge o País desde o ano passado. “Olhando para o monitor a gente consegue visualizar bem o que é a crise do setor elétrico”, comenta Larissa Rodrigues, da campanha de clima e energia do Greenpeace. A ONG colaborou com a elaboração da ferramenta, que foi capitaneada por técnicos do Instituto de Energia e Meio Ambiente (Iema).

O levantamento mostra que entre 2011 e 2014, a geração de eletricidade por fontes renováveis (hidráulica incluída) diminuiu 6,8%, por conta da seca. Outras fontes renováveis, principalmente eólica, subiram 67,2% no período. Mas a produção em termoelétricas cresceu muito mais: 171,2% – número que bate com o aumento das emissões.

“Ficam claros no monitor a sazonalidade das fontes e também como elas se complementam. Toda vez que a linha das hidrelétricas cai, a da eólica sobe”, afirma Marcelo Cremer, do Iema. Há uma tendência no País, especialmente para o Nordeste, de que se chove, não venta, e quando está seco, venta mais.

No site é possível acessar diversas informações. Logo no início há um gráfico que mostra os dados de geração elétrica do dia anterior, dividida pelas principais fontes (hidráulica, eólica, térmica a combustível renovável, térmica nuclear, térmica a combustível fóssil e térmica a combustível não identificado). Também dá para ver a geração nas usinas térmicas subdividida por combustível (carvão, petróleo, gás natural). A informação por dia está disponível até 1.º de janeiro de 2009. Nos próximos dias devem ser acrescentadas as informações até 2006.

Ao lado está um gráfico que mostra a evolução total das emissões do setor e por fonte de energia, também por dia, mês ou ano. Os dados representam a energia que circula na rede nacional, o chamado SIN (Sistema Interligado Nacional). Fontes isoladas e a geração distribuída (por exemplo, com solar nos telhados das casas) ainda não são contadas.

Outra opção de visualização é por subsistema gerador de energia: Norte, Nordeste, Sul, Sudeste e Centro-Oeste. E é possível fazer um zoom ainda maior na rede e olhar as emissões de cada usina do Brasil. O plano, para os próximos meses é oferecer mais informações, como outros poluentes emitidos e quanto de água está sendo consumido para o resfriamento de termoelétricas. A ideia é também traduzir como as escolhas do sistema nacional para a geração de energia refletem no valor da tarifa paga pelo consumidor.

Acordo da conferência de Paris sobre clima terá cumprimento obrigatório (Folha de S.Paulo)

Clóvis Rossi

23/11/2015

A COP21, a conferência global sobre o clima que se inicia no dia 30 em Paris, será de cumprimento obrigatório pelas partes, ao contrário do que tinha dito, na semana passada, o secretário de Estado norte-americano, John Kerry.

Kerry dissera que não sairia de Paris um tratado, mas seu chefe, o presidente Barack Obama, assinou nesta segunda-feira, 16, com seus pares do G20, texto em que afirmam “a determinação de adotar um protocolo, outro instrumento legal ou um desenlace acordado com força legal nos termos da Convenção-Quadro das Nações Unidas sobre Mudanças Climáticas”.

É o acordo que prevê limitar o aumento da temperatura na Terra a 2°C até o final do século, em relação aos níveis da era pré-industrial.

Superar esse teto, dizem os especialistas, geraria consequências apocalípticas.

Berk Ozkan/AFP
Líderes do G20 posam para a tradicional foto do grupo durante a cúpula realizada em Antalya, na Turquia
Líderes do G20 posam para a tradicional foto do grupo durante a cúpula realizada em Antalya, na Turquia

Não por acaso, o comunicado final da cúpula do G20, encerrada nesta segunda-feira, 16, em Antalya, afirma que “a mudança climática é um dos grandes desafios de nosso tempo” e que “2015 é um ano crítico, que requer ação efetiva, forte e coletiva sobre a mudança climática e seus efeitos”.

É natural nessas circunstâncias que o tema tenha sido, depois de terrorismo, o que provocou debates mais agudos na cúpula das grandes economias do planeta.

Uma das polêmicas, não resolvida no comunicado final, girou em torno da revisão das INDCs (Contribuições Pretendidas Nacionalmente Determinadas), ou seja, os compromissos que cada país estabeleceu para si próprio e que levará à COP21.

Já são 160 os países que estabeleceram suas INDCs, Brasil inclusive (a meta brasileira prevê reduzir em 43% a emissão dos gases do efeito estufa até 2030, com base no nível registrado em 2005).

“Vamos cumprir”, assegurou a presidente Dilma Rousseff, “e, se não o fizermos, teremos que prestar contas”.

REVISÃO EM CINCO ANOS

O Brasil apoiou, no G20, a tese de revisão das metas de cinco em cinco anos, mas outros países foram contra, pelo que o comunicado final não a menciona.

Dilma explicou o apoio brasileiro: a revisão a cada cinco anos permitiria analisar a incorporação de tecnologias e modalidades de financiamento que, eventualmente, abreviassem a obtenção das metas.

A presidente se diz otimista sobre o resultado de Paris, entre outras razões porque o formato mudou na comparação com Copenhague, a outra grande cúpula climática: desta vez, serão os chefes de governo que estarão na conferência no momento inicial, indicando claramente as orientações a serem seguidas.

Em Copenhague, foram os negociadores que abriram o encontro, ao qual os chefes de governo compareceram apenas do meio para o fim, com impasses já cristalizados.

AMBIENTALISTAS CRITICAM

O otimismo de Dilma, no entanto, não é compartilhado pelas entidades ambientalistas, que criticaram duramente o comunicado do G20.

“Os chefes de Estado poderiam ter oferecido um claro e poderoso sinal ante a iminência da Cúpula do Clima, pondo uma data para o fim dos subsídios a combustíveis fósseis e concordando em parar de financiar projetos de combustível fóssil ao redor do mundo”, disse, por exemplo, Ümit Sahin, da ONG Pelo Clima.

“Em vez disso” –continuou– “recuperaram posições anteriores e, ao fazê-lo, correm o risco de ficar do lado errado da história.”

Conta das mudanças climáticas é mais alta para nações ricas (O Globo)

ActionAid calcula que países desenvolvidos devem doar 0,1% do PIB a fundo comum

POR O GLOBO

Mulheres polonesas conversam em frente à usina: países desenvolvidos não pagam valores justos para atenuar mudanças climáticas, diz ONG – JOE KLAMAR/AFP

RIO — Um novo estudo da ONG ActionAid denunciou ontem a diferença abissal entre as quantias exigidas e as doadas pelos países desenvolvidos para que as nações mais pobres criem medidas de adaptação contra as mudanças climáticas. Em 2013, foram destinados cerca de US$ 5 bilhões para o combate ao aquecimento global. Na próxima década, serão necessários US$ 150 bilhões por ano para combater os eventos extremos. O debate sobre financiamento está entre as prioridades da Conferência do Clima de Paris, a partir do dia 30.

De acordo com o instituto, as nações ricas deveriam dedicar pelo menos 0,1% de seu PIB a um fundo climático internacional. É um índice 70 vezes menor do que o gasto em 2008 para a adoção de políticas contra a recessão econômica.

Os EUA deveriam aumentar suas contribuições aos países pobres em mais de 154 vezes, passando dos US$ 440 milhões gastos em 2013 para US$ 67,5 bilhões em 2025.

A União Europeia precisa multiplicar os seus investimentos em 11 vezes, passando dos US$ 3,2 bilhões vistos em 2013 para US$ 36,9 bilhões em 2025.

Os cálculos são baseados nas emissões históricas — a contribuição atribuída a cada país para provocar as mudanças climáticas — e em sua capacidade de ajudar financeiramente, levando em conta os dados da Organização para a Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OCDE).

Especialista em financiamento climático da ActionAid, Brandon Wu acredita que os países em desenvolvimento estão enfrentando sozinhos “uma crise que não causaram”.

— O problema não é falta de dinheiro — assegura. — Os EUA, por exemplo, gastam muito mais em subsídios para os combustíveis fósseis do que em medidas de adaptação ao clima. É falta de vontade política.

IMPASSE HISTÓRICO

Wu avalia que o financiamento contra as mudanças climáticas pode ser o item mais polêmico entre os discutidos na Conferência do Clima. Tradicionalmente, os países ricos e pobres discordam sobre o tamanho do rombo, e as nações desenvolvidas não concordam em assumir totalmente as indenizações contra o aquecimento global, eximindo economias emergentes, como China e Brasil, de qualquer compromisso financeiro.

— Um novo acordo (global sobre o clima) não é possível sem esclarecimento sobre como serão as finanças — pondera. — Os países em desenvolvimento não podem adaptar suas economias, livrando-as das emissões de carbono, sem apoio internacional. Talvez não consigamos saber exatamente quanto será investido por cada país, mas precisamos impor novos prazos e objetivos. Aqueles discutidos até agora são vagos demais.

Já Osvaldo Stella, diretor do Programa de Mudanças Climáticas do Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia, acredita que as negociações financeiras não devem ser uma prioridade.

— O mais importante é discutir que metas podem impedir o avanço da temperatura global — defende. — O financiamento é um jogo político. Resistimos a abandonar o petróleo, da mesma forma como, antes, não queríamos largar o carvão. Mais do que abrir o cofre, precisamos pensar em um novo modelo econômico, que tipo de capitalismo devemos adotar.

Scientists call for national effort to understand and harness Earth’s microbes (Science Daily)

Berkeley Lab researchers co-author Science article proposing Unified Microbiome Initiative

Date:
October 29, 2015
Source:
DOE/Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Summary:
To understand and harness the capabilities of Earth’s microbial ecosystems, nearly fifty scientists propose a national effort in the US called the Unified Microbiome Initiative.

This colorized microscopy image hints at the complexity of microbial life. It shows two bacterial cells in soil. The bacteria glue clay particles together and protect themselves from predators. This also stabilizes soil and stores carbon that could otherwise enter the atmosphere. Credit: Manfred Auer, Berkeley Lab

Microbes are essential to life on Earth. They’re found in soil and water and inside the human gut. In fact, nearly every habitat and organism hosts a community of microbes, called a microbiome. What’s more, microbes hold tremendous promise for innovations in medicine, energy, agriculture, and understanding climate change.

Scientists have made great strides learning the functions of many microbes and microbiomes, but this research also highlights how much more there is to know about the connections between Earth’s microorganisms and a vast number of processes. Deciphering how microbes interact with each other, their hosts, and their environment could transform our understanding of the planet. It could also lead to new antibiotics, ways to fight obesity, drought-resistant crops, or next-gen biofuels, to name a few possibilities.

To understand and harness the capabilities of Earth’s microbial ecosystems, nearly fifty scientists from Department of Energy national laboratories, universities, and research institutions have proposed a national effort called the Unified Microbiome Initiative. The scientists call for the initiative in a policy forum entitled “A unified initiative to harness Earth’s microbiomes” published Oct. 30, 2015, in the journal Science.

The Unified Microbiome Initiative would involve many disciplines, including engineering, physical, life, and biomedical sciences; and collaborations between government institutions, private foundations, and industry. It would also entail the development of new tools that enable a mechanistic and predictive understanding of Earth’s microbial processes.

Among the authors of the Science article are several scientists from the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab). These are Berkeley Lab Director Paul Alivisatos; Eoin Brodie, Deputy Director of the Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division; Mary Maxon, the Biosciences Area Principal Deputy; Eddy Rubin, Director of the Joint Genome Institute; and Peidong Yang, a Faculty Scientist in the Materials Sciences Division. Alivisatos is also the Director of the Kavli Energy Nanoscience Institute, and Yang is the Co-Director.

Berkeley Lab has a long history of microbial research, from its pioneering work in metagenomics at the Joint Genome Institute, to the more recent Microbes to Biomes initiative, which is designed to harness microbes in ways that protect fuel and food supplies, environmental security, and health.

The call for the Unified Microbiome Initiative comes at a critical time in microbial research. DNA sequencing has enabled scientists to detect microbes in every biological system, thriving deep underground and inside insects for example, and in mind-boggling numbers: Earth’s microbes outnumber the stars in the universe. But to benefit from this knowledge, this descriptive phase must transition to a new phase that explores how microbial communities function, how to predict their actions, and how to make use of them.

“Technology has gotten us to the point where we realize that microbes are like dark matter in the universe. We know microbes are everywhere, and are far more complex than we previously thought, but we really need to understand how they communicate and relate to the environment,” says Brodie.

“And just like physicists are trying to understand dark matter, we need to understand the functions of microbes and their genes. We need to study what life is like at the scale of microbes, and how they relate to the planet,” Brodie adds.

This next phase of microbiome research will require strong ties between disciplines and institutions, and new technologies that accelerate discovery. The scientists map out several opportunities in the Science article. These include:

  • Tools to understand the biochemical functions of gene products, a large portion of which are unknown.
  • Technologies that quickly generate complete genomes from individual cells found in complex microbiomes.
  • Imaging capabilities that visualize individual microbes, along with their interactions and chemical products, in complex microbial networks.
  • Adaptive models that capture the complexity of interactions from molecules to microbes, and from microbial communities to ecosystems.

Many of these new technologies would be flexible platforms, designed initially for microbial research, but likely to find uses in other fields.

Ten years after the launch of the Unified Microbiome Initiative, the authors of the Science article envision an era in which a predictive understanding of microbial processes enables scientists to manage and design microbiomes in a responsible way–a key step toward harnessing their capabilities for beneficial applications.

“This is an incredibly exciting time to be involved in microbial research,” says Brodie. “It has the potential to contribute to so many advances, such as in medicine, energy, agriculture, biomanufacturing, and the environment.”


Journal Reference:

  1. A. P. Alivisatos, M. J. Blaser, E. L. Brodie, M. Chun, J. L. Dangl, T. J. Donohue, P. C. Dorrestein, J. A. Gilbert, J. L. Green, J. K. Jansson, R. Knight, M. E. Maxon, M. J. McFall-Ngai, J. F. Miller, K. S. Pollard, E. G. Ruby, S. A. Taha. A unified initiative to harness Earth’s microbiomesScience, 2015; 350 (6260): 507 DOI: 10.1126/science.aac8480

Mudança climática pode reduzir capacidade hidrelétrica em até 20% (Estadão)

Giovana Girardi

29 de outubro de 2015

Temperaturas mais elevadas, mudança no regime de chuvas e aumento de eventos climáticos extremos são apenas uma parte da história das mudanças climáticas. A forma como essas mudanças vão impactar agricultura, geração de energia, infraestrutura, oferta d’água e saúde é o outrolado que acaba de ganhar detalhes para o Brasil.

Considerado o mais importante estudo sobre como diversos setores vão reagir diante do clima modificado, o projeto Brasil 2040 – Alternativas de Adaptação às Mudanças Climáticas foi publicado ontem no site da extinta Secretaria de Assuntos Estratégicos(SAE) da Presidência.

Um dos principais resultados é sobre como a oferta de água será afetada. As regiões Norte, Nordeste e Centro-Oeste do Brasil deverão sofrer redução. A Sul pode ter um leve aumento na média, mas com uma distribuição muito irregular. Para o Sudeste, há incertezas. Isso pode ter impactos diretos na agricultura e na energia.

Usina hidrelétrica Belo Monte, no pior cenário de mudanças climáticas, pode ser afetada por falta de chuvas e deixar de compensar financeiramente

Usina hidrelétrica Belo Monte, no pior cenário de mudanças climáticas, pode ser afetada por falta de chuvas e deixar de compensar financeiramente

Diversos grupos de pesquisa do Brasil trabalharam com dados de dois modelos climáticos, que, por sua vez, levaram em conta dois cenários do IPCC (o painel da ONU de cientistas do clima). Um, mais pessimista, que considera que o mundo não vai agir para combater as mudanças climáticas, e um intermediário, que imagina que haverá algumas ações, mas não o suficiente, e o mundo ainda vai aquecer pelo menos 3°C. Este segundo cenário é condizente com as propostas de redução das emissões apresentadas como contribuição para a Conferência do Clima de Paris.

No pior cenário, até 2040 a capacidade das hidrelétricas pode ficar de 8% a 20% menor. Já no melhor cenário, a capacidade diminui entre 4% e 15%. Ou seja, mesmo se o mundo fizer tudo o que está prometendo para combater o aquecimento global, ainda podemos ter impacto na produção de energia. Usinas na Amazônia como a de Belo Monte ou o novo projeto pensado para o rio Tapajós seriam inviabilizados.

Hoje o Brasil ainda é altamente dependente da água para a geração de energia elétrica. Cerca de 80% vêm de hidrelétricas. “O que por um lado torna a matriz energética brasileira mais limpa que a média mundial, por outro a torna vulnerável se o clima mudar”, afirma Roberto Schaeffer, da UFRJ, coordenador do capítulo de energia.

O gargalo, principalmente nas hidrelétricas localizadas na Amazônia, é que elas não têm reservatórios. Com isso, não têm estoque de água na seca. “Essa vulnerabilidade que a mudança climática traz talvez nos faça repensar se não é melhor voltar a ter hidrelétricas com reservatório”, complementa.

O Brasil pode ficar mais dependente de térmicas. O estudo até prevê um aumento das energias eólica (no Nordeste) e solar (Sul e Sudeste), mas como elas são intermitentes, há necessidade de ter uma energia de base e, se a hidrelétrica falhar, as térmicas serão a saída. “Mas pode ser a etanol, a bagaço de cana, a biomassa, não a carvão”, sugere Schaeffer. “O ideal é ter diversidade. E planejar a expansão do setor incorporando a variável das mudanças climáticas. Não podemos mais só olhar para as séries hidrológicas do passado para prever o futuro, porque ele será bem diferente.”

Soja em risco. A mudança no regime hídrico pode trazer impactos também às principais commodities agrícolas do Brasil. A redução de área potencial para lavouras pode ser de até 39,3%, no pior cenário. A soja seria a cultura mais afetada, tendo uma perda de até 67% da área plantada na região Sul até 2040.

Produtor rural mostra área afetada pela estiagem em sua plantação de soja, em Santa Maria (RS), em crise de 2012. Falta de chuva no período de plantio pode levar a uma perda de área para o plantio do grão no Estado

Produtor rural mostra área afetada pela estiagem em sua plantação de soja, em Santa Maria (RS), em crise de 2012. Falta de chuva no período de plantio pode levar a uma perda de área para o plantio do grão no Estado

De acordo com Leila Harfuch, do Agroicone, no entanto, áreas do Centro-Oeste e do Norte podem compensar parte dessa perda. Na comparação com um futuro sem mudança do clima, a perda total de área de soja no País seria de 5%.

“Existe uma dinâmica econômica que torna o impacto nacional menos dramática, vai haver uma realocação da produção no caso dos grãos. Mas os impactos locais serão muito relevante, em especial para a região Sul. Vai ter perda de valor de produção, de emprego e renda, mas em termos produtivos, outras regiões podem compensar”, explica Leila.

Segundo ela, algo parecido pode acontecer com as plantações de cana-de-açúcar na região Sudeste. A estimativa, no pior cenário, é de redução de 10% na área plantada na região na comparação com o tamanho que a produção teria se não houvesse mudanças climáticas. Parte seria compensada no Sul e parte no Centro-Oeste.

Segundo o estudo, quem mais deve perder área é a pastagem. Não necessariamente porque o clima prejudique muito o pasto, mas porque tanto áreas degradadas quanto outras que tenham aptidão para a agricultura poderão ser ocupadas com grãos. Está esperada uma queda de 6,5% da área ocupada pela pecuária, mas o estudo espera que haja uma intensificação da produção, de modo que ela deve se manter estável.

Repercussão. O Observatório do Clima, coalizão brasileira com mais de 30 organizações da sociedade civil em torno das mudanças climáticas, afirmou que o estudo tem de servir como alerta para que o Brasil deixe a tratar o problema como um tema marginal.

“O estudo traça um panorama preocupante dos impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre a economia nacional já nos próximos 25 anos. Mostra que a maneira como o Brasil investe em agropecuária e em infraestrutura precisa ser radicalmente revista. Grandes hidrelétricas na Amazônia, como Belo Monte e São Luís do Tapajós, poderão ter reduções importantes de vazão, e a sociedade pode acabar enterrando bilhões de reais em obras que não se pagam”, afirmou Carlos Rittl, secretário-executivo da organização. Para ele, o estudo “aponta a necessidade de o Brasil lutar por um acordo do clima ambicioso nas próximas semanas na conferência de Paris, e de aumentar também a ambição da própria proposta.”

Excitement grows as NASA carbon sleuth begins Year Two (Science Daily)

Date:
October 29, 2015
Source:
NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Summary:
Scientists busy poring over more than a year of data from NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission are seeing patterns emerge as they seek answers to the science questions that drive the mission.

Global average carbon dioxide concentrations as seen by NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 mission, June 1-15, 2015. OCO-2 measures carbon dioxide from the top of Earth’s atmosphere to its surface. Higher carbon dioxide concentrations are in red, with lower concentrations in yellows and greens. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

Scientists busy poring over more than a year of data from NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission are seeing patterns emerge as they seek answers to the science questions that drive the mission.

Launched in July 2014, OCO-2, an experimental carbon-dioxide measurement mission, is designed to give the international science community a new view of the global carbon cycle in unprecedented detail. During its two-year primary mission, the satellite observatory is tracking the large-scale movement of carbon between Earth’s atmosphere, its plants and soil, and the ocean, from season to season and from year to year. OCO-2 began routine science operations in September 2014.

“We can already clearly see patterns of seasonal change and variations in carbon dioxide around the globe,” said Annmarie Eldering, OCO-2 deputy project scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. “Far more subtle features are expected to emerge over time.”

A new animation depicting the first full year of OCO-2 science operations is available at:

Armed with a full annual cycle of data, OCO-2 scientists are now beginning to study the net sources of carbon dioxide as well as their “sinks” — places in the Earth system that store carbon, such as the ocean and plants on land. This information will help scientists better understand the natural processes currently absorbing more than half the carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere by human activities. This is a key to understanding how Earth’s climate may change in the future as greenhouse gas concentrations increase.

The first year of data from the mission reveals a portrait of a dynamic, living planet. Between mid-May and mid-July 2015, OCO-2 saw a dramatic reduction in the abundance of atmospheric carbon dioxide across the northern hemisphere, as plants on land sprang to life and began rapidly absorbing carbon dioxide from the air to form new leaves, stems and roots. During this intense, two-month period, known as the “spring drawdown,” OCO-2 measurements show the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide over much of the northern hemisphere decreased by two to three percent. That’s 8 to 12 parts per million out of the global average background concentration of 400 parts per million.

“That’s a big but expected change,” said Eldering. “This is the first time we’ve ever had the opportunity to observe the spring drawdown across the entire northern hemisphere with this kind of spatial resolution, seeing changes from week to week.”

Also as expected, OCO-2 data show increased concentrations of carbon dioxide associated with human activities. Higher carbon dioxide levels of several parts per million are seen in regions where fossil fuels are being consumed by large power plants or megacities. Enhanced levels are also seen in the Amazon, Central Africa and Indonesia, where forests are being cleared and burned to create fields for agricultural use.

Researchers Abhishek Chatterjee of the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; and Michelle Gierach and Dave Schimel of JPL are investigating a strong correlation observed between atmospheric carbon dioxide over the Pacific Ocean and the current El Nino. Fluctuations in carbon dioxide appear to be strongly linked with warmer sea surface temperatures. OCO-2’s unprecedented density of measurements is giving researchers a unique data set to understand and separate the roles that sea surface temperatures, winds, regional emissions and other variables may be playing in the carbon dioxide concentrations.

“We believe 2016 will see breakthrough OCO-2 research results, as scientists work to unravel the mysteries of finding carbon dioxide sources and natural sinks,” said Eldering.

Through most of OCO-2’s first year in space, the mission team was busy calibrating its science instrument, learning how to process its massive amount of data, and delivering data products to NASA’s Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES-DISC) in Greenbelt, Maryland, for distribution to the world’s science community.

Scientists are comparing OCO-2 data to ground-based measurements to validate the satellite data and tie it to internationally accepted standards for accuracy and precision.

Routine delivery of OCO-2 data — calibrated spectra of reflected sunlight that reveal the fingerprints of carbon dioxide — began in late 2014, while estimates of carbon dioxide derived from cloud-free OCO-2 observations have been delivered since March 2015. Recently, the OCO-2 team reprocessed the OCO-2 data set to incorporate improvements in instrument calibration and correct other known issues with the original data release.

Every day, OCO-2 orbits Earth 14.5 times and collects and returns about a million measurements. After eliminating data contaminated by clouds, aerosols and steep terrain, between 10 to 13 percent of the measurements are of sufficient quality to derive accurate estimates of the average carbon dioxide concentration between Earth’s surface and space. That’s at least 100 times more carbon dioxide measurements than from all other sources of precise carbon dioxide data combined.

NASA uses the vantage point of space to increase our understanding of our home planet, improve lives and safeguard our future. NASA develops new ways to observe and study Earth’s interconnected natural systems with long-term data records. The agency freely shares this unique knowledge and works with institutions around the world to gain new insights into how our planet is changing.

For more information on OCO-2, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/oco-2

For more information about NASA’s Earth science activities, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/earth

Upcoming UN Climate Summit can’t overlook China’s support of global coal power (Science Daily)

Date:
October 27, 2015
Source:
Princeton University
Summary:
When global leaders converge on Paris on Nov. 30 for the 2015 United Nations climate change conference, they should create guidelines and incentives for developing nations to cooperate with one another on lower-carbon energy projects, according to a new report. Failure to do so could contribute to an unchecked expansion of coal energy in developing counties, which has already accelerated in recent years with the help of Chinese firms going global.

When global leaders converge on Paris on Nov. 30 for the 2015 United Nations climate change conference, their goal will be to deliver an agreement that, for the first time, seeks to safeguard the Earth’s climate by having all nations that are significant sources of carbon dioxide rein in their emissions.

A threat to that plan might be the unchecked growth of coal-intensive energy in the world’s developing nations — a dangerous trend recently accelerated by the expansion of Chinese firms seeking business internationally, according to researchers from Princeton University, Tongji University in Shanghai and the University of California-Irvine.

The Paris conference is the 21st annual meeting to revisit and strengthen the international environmental treaty known as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Created at the 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development, commonly known as the “Earth Summit,” the treaty sets goals and procedures for signatory nations to contain and reduce carbon emissions.

However, the researchers write in the journal Nature Climate Change that any agreement reached in Paris also should be expanded to provide guidelines and incentives — already under discussion for industrialized countries — for developing nations to cooperate with one another on lower-carbon energy projects. Failure to do this, the authors write, could allow further “dirty” energy cooperation between developing nations and complicate the United Nations’ goal to keep the global average temperature within 2 degrees Celsius of what it was around 1750 at the dawn of the Industrial Age.

“After years of effort to construct a truly global climate agreement, negotiators are on course to accept a system with incoherent rules for developed and developing countries in terms of investing in low-carbon energy outside their borders. We think that may be harmful in the long run,” said lead author Phil Hannam, a doctoral candidate in the Program in Science, Technology and Environmental Policy (STEP) at Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.

The paper, which includes the first tally of Chinese involvement in power plants around the world, includes co-authors Michael Oppenheimer, the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs at Princeton; Zhenliang Liao, an associate professor of environmental science and engineering at Tongji University; and Steven Davis, an assistant professor of earth system science at UC-Irvine.

Carbon emissions continue to rise from energy production as developing nations such as India, Brazil and South Africa fuel their rapid industrialization, the researchers report. At the same time, developing nations such as China have the capital and technology to support other burgeoning economies. But the lack of international attention — and UN incentives — for developing nations to support each other’s energy needs in a low-carbon way has helped keep coal power a popular choice, according to the authors.

Chinese firms — which often have financial or policy backing from China’s state banks — have poured coal-power equipment into other Asian countries, partly as a result of China’s slowing domestic power-market growth. The situation could get worse as China pledges to reduce domestic carbon emissions, according to the paper. The researchers found that of the total power capacities in Asian countries other than China that have involvement from Chinese firms, 68 percent in operation, 77 percent under construction and 76 percent in planning burn coal. This level of involvement in coal exceeds the global trend, Hannam said.

“While China has tightened its belt on coal power domestically, that’s pushing Chinese firms to help build coal plants in other countries, so much so that China’s firms are disproportionately focused in coal-intensive energy abroad relative to other nations,” Hannam said. “Instead, if the UNFCCC integrated low-carbon cooperation between developing countries in the climate agreement, China could lead the way for countries to make pledges for low-carbon investment globally, just as they pledge domestic emissions cuts.”

The loopholes of ‘climate finance’

“Climate finance,” which Hannam and his co-authors focus on, is an important tool for guiding clean-energy development internationally. In an effort to keep global emissions low, a nation’s government — usually in concert with private money — will support low-carbon development in other nations. Richer industrialized nations with a long history of emissions have committed to mobilizing climate finance to the tune of US$100 billion per year by 2020. Some of this funding will flow through the Green Climate Fund established in 2010 to support low-carbon investment in the developing world.

Developing nations — generally with China at the helm — have entered into numerous parallel arrangements to support energy-sector growth in other developing nations. China has established the South-South Cooperation Fund for supporting low-carbon investment.

Several other energy-financing agreements, however, are not only outside the UN’s purview, they often benefit from vastly more funding than the Green Climate Fund or the South-South fund and have no explicit low-carbon directive, the authors reported.

The New Development Bank headquartered in Shanghai and formed by China, Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa to support infrastructure projects in developing countries boasts a starting capital of $100 billion. Some $50 billion in capital is already behind the China-based Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and another $40 billion supports China’s Silk Road Fund — both entities are intended to accelerate development in China’s less prosperous neighbors.

Efforts to encourage countries to support low-carbon development is complicated by the fact that there are no universally accepted standards for climate finance, Hannam said. Even the Green Climate Fund may permit financing for coal power.

“This highlights the need for both developed and developing countries to agree to common definitions of what qualifies as climate finance,” Hannam said. “Then the UNFCCC can look across the multiple emerging institutions and provide incentives for all power-sector finance — regardless of country of origin — to shift from coal to lower-carbon sources.”

The issues the authors discuss have already been broached in diplomatic circles, said Oppenheimer, who will be attending the Paris conference in part to promote the ideas laid out in the perspective piece. The United States recently persuaded China to reconsider its carbon-intensive power investments abroad, he said. While American support is crucial, climate finance is a complicated international balancing act that is influenced by many nations’ pursuit of economic gain and influence, Oppenheimer said.

“If the United States stays focused and makes this a priority within its international climate approach, then there’s a fair chance other governments will likewise support such an effort,” Oppenheimer said. “However, there is clearly more to international energy finance than just the United States and China. Japan, for instance, also finances coal power internationally and has a lot at stake politically in China’s Asia-focused institutions. It’s not simple.”

Gilbert Metcalf, a professor of economics at Tufts University and former deputy assistant secretary for environment and energy at the U.S. Department of Treasury, agreed that developing nations also must be brought into the fold. The norm has been for industrialized nations to foot the bill for low-carbon investment in poorer nations. The recent initiatives by China and other developing nations have somewhat upset that dynamic, but countries with small economies might still hesitate to commit themselves to investment standards long applied only to rich countries, said Metcalf, who was not involved in the research but is familiar with it.

Nonetheless, Metcalf said, the paper in Nature Climate Change is significant for taking a proactive approach to dealing with the climate-finance issue, as well as for detailing the energy-sector investments for an emerging financial force such as China.

“Providing some systematic measurement of climate finance is extremely valuable, especially with regard to climate finance from China and other developing countries. As China’s recent announcement to provide climate finance outside of the Green Climate Fund indicates, developing country finance will be an important part of the climate finance architecture,” he said.

“The massive external coal investment highlighted in [this paper] makes clear that South-South investment is not necessarily green investment,” he said. “It also makes clear that incentives built into the Paris agreement — or post-Paris negotiations — to green South-South investment will be extremely valuable to support global efforts to decarbonize.”


Journal Reference:

  1. Phillip M. Hannam, Zhenliang Liao, Steven J. Davis, Michael Oppenheimer. Developing country finance in a post-2020 global climate agreementNature Climate Change, 2015; 5 (11): 983 DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2731

Anthropologies #21: Is There Hope for an Anthropocene Anthropology? (Savage Minds)

September 5, 2015, by Ryan.

This entry is part 4 of 10 in the Anthropologies #21 series.

Up next for this issue we have Todd Sanders and Elizabeth F. Hall. Sanders is an Associate Professor of Anthropology at the University of Toronto. He has written extensively on African and Euro-American knowledge practices, and is currently collaborating with Elizabeth Hall on a project called ‘Knowing Climate Change.’ Hall is a physician-scientist and Research Associate at the Centre for Ethnography at the University of Toronto Scarborough. She trained as a specialist in public health medicine and holds a PhD in epidemiology.  –R.A.

Global climate change is driving anthropologists in opposite directions. Some are enthusiastically adopting “the Anthropocene” – a “gift” from our friends in the natural sciences (Latour 2014) that might enable us to exit, at long last, our Modern world and its Holocene thinking (Hamilton, et al. 2015). The concept potentially dovetails with old and new concerns – networks, rhizomes and relational ontologies; more-than-human socialities; hybrids, nonhumans and the posthuman; multispecies, multinaturalisms and modes of existence – and promises critical purchase over today’s troubled times. For as we enter the Anthropocene, we’ll need new conceptual tools and ways of thinking to understand our new home. The familiar dualisms that have long dogged our discipline and world – Nature and Culture; local and global; Moderns and non-moderns; and so on – are not up to the task. Discard the Modern dualisms. Dwell on the emergent processes of their production. And reimagine worlds as partial and provisional, composed through multiple, heterogeneous entanglements. For many anthropologists, the time is ripe for such an Anthropocene Anthropology.

At the same time, climate change is leading other anthropologists right back to the Holocene. For them, this is not the time to abandon dualisms nor to theorise partial, emergent, hybrid worlds. Instead, we must entrench and purify the well-known anthropological categories of nature and culture, tradition and the local, and insist on the merits of holism. These anthropologists share theoretical affinities more with Julian Steward and Robert Netting than with, say, Latour or Tsing. Their scholarship is large and growing, and asks how climate change will impact local, traditional cultures. The story ordinarily goes like this: local, traditional cultures crucially depend on nature for their cultural, material and spiritual needs. They will therefore suffer first, worst and most directly from rapid climate change. These place-based peoples are somewhat resilient and adaptive, due to their local, indigenous or traditional ecological knowledge. Yet cultural adaptation has limits. Urgent anthropological interventions are thus required to mediate and translate between local and global worlds to help these cultures adapt. The Anthropocene figures here too: not as an opportunity to reconfigure and overcome Modern dualisms but as a way to underscore and holistically integrate them. Welcome to the Holocene!

While this approach is strongly endorsed by the AAA’s Global Climate Change Task Force (Fiske, et al. 2014), other anthropologists will insist that in today’s world, old ideas about local, traditional cultures are “obsolete from the outset” (Hastrup 2009: 23). For them, entrenching ourselves in the Holocene is not the obvious way to enter the Anthropocene. Still, it’s worth noting that obsolescence is a matter of perspective and is context-dependent. This pedestrian point is crucial because, when it comes to climate change, anthropology is not the only discipline in town. And because it isn’t, anthropologists may not get the last word on which of our knowledges and knowledge practices are useful, or useless, in the wider climate change arena.

In this vast, bustling arena, considerable efforts are being devoted to putting a human face on climate change. For many in the human sciences, this means supplementing and nuancing abstract, paternalistic, quantitative climate sciences with humanistic, qualitative data and values from real people (Hulme 2011; Jasanoff 2010). As we discuss elsewhere, this is one reason growing numbers of social and natural scientists are doing ethnographic research on “the human dimensions of climate change” (Hall and Sanders 2015). From geographers to geophysicists, ecologists to ethnobotanists, scholars from every alcove of the academy are joining the human dimensions enterprise. They travel to remote places on the planet to understand how local, traditional cultures will – or will not – adapt to climate change. And they tell familiar tales: the same tales, in fact, that some anthropologists tell about local, traditional, place-based cultures being done in by a changing climate. In this broader academic arena, such local, traditional peoples are fast becoming the human face of climate change. Figure 1, reproduced from a leading interdisciplinary climate change journal, is emblematic.

Sanders-and-Hall_Figure-1-JPEG

 

Figure 1. “Theo Ikummaq in the middle of Fury and Hecla Strait, between Igloolik and Baffin Island, explaining the challenges with spring ice conditions, while waiting at a seal hole (June 22, 2005).” (With kind permission from Springer Science+Business Media: Climatic Change, Travelling and hunting in a changing Arctic: assessing Inuit vulnerability to a sea ice change in Igloolik, Nunavut, 94, 2009, p. 375, Laidler GJ, Ford JD, Gough WA, Ikummaq T, Gagnon AS, Kowal S, Qrunnut K, Irngaut C, figure 2).

This scholarship shares affinities with salvage anthropology and cultural ecology, and while not unaware of the many critiques of such projects, remains mostly unfazed by them. These are urgent, real-world problems, after all, that require serious ethnographic attention. There’s no time for wiffle-waffle. But whatever one’s views on the matter, the point is that this multi- and interdisciplinary scholarship is large, and working hard to complement and complete the climate change puzzle: to serve up culture to nature, local to the global, traditional to the modern, values to facts, indigenous knowledge to Western Science. This is Holocene thinking replayed with a vengeance.

After decades of imploring social scientists to step up to the plate, to leave our ivory towers, to add the missing human piece to the climate change puzzle, “harder” natural scientists are welcoming such “soft” climate change scholars and scholarship. Of course economists got there first. But this new wave of human dimensions scholarship provides hope that, after decades of delay, important aspects of “the human” might finally be fleshed out and “integrated” into our understandings of climate change. These hopes are understandable, given the Modern metaphysics many in this arena share.

It all began with capital-n Nature, which natural and computational scientists reanimated decades ago. Today, this Nature takes the form of coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models (OAGCMs) and Earth System Models (ESMs), which rely on formally-specified (i.e., mathematical) equations to model the Earth System’s natural components and the complex links among them. “The human” came later. Social scientists from many disciplines are now adding in the human, or trying to, and the calls for more such efforts continue.

One perpetual challenge in this arena has been how to combine the two, Nature and Culture, the Ecological and the Sociological. Thus funding streams like the NSF’s long-running Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program have been established for precisely this purpose. The research projects they support are often large, always interdisciplinary and “must include analyses of four different components: (1) the dynamics of a natural system; (2) the dynamics of a human system; (3) the processes through which the natural system affects the human system; and (4) the processes through which the human system affects the natural system.”

But however funded, efforts to “integrate” human and natural components of the system in the name of climate change are legion. Consider the tightly-coupled Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which aim quantitatively to bring diverse natural “scientific, economics and social science expertise together to provide analysis and advice that comprehensively addresses all or at least many aspects of the climate change issue” (Sarofim and Reilly 2011: 27). There are also many looser modelling efforts with telling titles – coupled human and natural systems (CHANS), human-environment systems (HES), social-ecological systems (SES) – that aim to couple human and natural components of the Earth System. Such holistic, Modern integrationist efforts stabilise “components” through the act of “coupling” them, and sometimes mistake models for the world. They are also widespread and flourishing.

The Stockholm Resilience Centre, for instance, funded by the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (MISTRA) to the tune of 30 million US dollars, is well-known for developing complex social-ecological systems to aid decision-making around climate change. The Centre’s Science Director, Carl Folke, notes:

We want to build a unique transdisciplinary research environment where innovative ideas can flourish. By combining new forms of cooperation with a holistic perspective, we hope to generate the insights that are needed to strengthen societies’ and the ecosystems’ capacities to meet a world which spins faster and faster.

Folke is one of the Centre’s founders, and has devoted much of his distinguished career to theorising “resilience” and “social-ecological systems.” While Figure 2 is illustrative of some of his influential work on coupled systems, similar diagrams could be reproduced from countless other scholars.

Sanders-and-Hall_Figure-2-JPEG2

Figure 2. A conceptual framework developed in relation to the resilience approach. (Republished with permission of Global Environmental Change, from “Resilience: the emergence of a perspective for social-ecological systems analysis,” Folke, C., vol. 16, 2006; permission conveyed through Copyright Clearance Center, Inc.).

Note how the all-embracing social-ecological system is composed of Latour’s modern constitution: a Great Divide between Nature (left) and Culture/Society (right), with feedback loops between the system’s component parts. Note, too, how scale works, also in a Modern register: each side is composed of “nested hierarchies,” the “larger” levels encompassing the “smaller.” (There’s obvious scope here to fill local slots with local knowledges and peoples). While Folke acknowledges that these are conceptual models, many others do not, leading to statements like “[c]oupled human and natural systems (CHANS) are systems in which humans and natural components interact” (Liu, et al. 2007: 639). Coupled systems scholarship may enable us to sort messy empirical worlds into tidy, Modern boxes, and to pretend we haven’t done so. But such purifying practices are of little interest to Anthropocene Anthropology, and do not create an environment in which Anthropocene thinking might flourish. Where to find such a place?

Last year, we attended Carbon 14: Climate is Culture, an innovative ArtScience collaboration at the Royal Ontario Museum in Toronto. The event was produced by a London-based charitable organisation whose mission is to bring together artists, scientists, journalists, media specialists and other publics “to stimulate a cultural narrative that will engage and inspire a sustainable and vibrant future society” in the face of global climate change.

The four-month-long exhibition and festival was big, Canadian-flavoured, and guided by a single question, and answer, prominently printed on the catalogue cover: “What does Culture have to do with Climate Change? Everything.” The “culture” had two senses: as in the cultural arts (music, theatre, photography, etc.), which play a crucial role innovating and communicating to the public; and in the anthropological sense (more or less). The event featured a performance by Inuit musician Tanya Tagaq and a mock trial of Canadian broadcaster, environmentalist and scientist, David Suzuki, for his Carbon Manifesto; poetry slams and a performance art piece by Dene-Inuvialuit artist, Reneltta Arluk, that examined “the impacts of climate change on Northern peoples and explore[d] the artist’s personal cultural identity;” talks by journalists, artists and others on fossil fuel dependence and the health of the oceans, biodiversity, sustainability and extinction; workshops on provocative, environmental activist arts; public discussions, including one with University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver and Sheila Watt-Cloutier, the well-known Canadian Inuit cultural and human rights activist and author (Watt-Cloutier 2015). The event also featured visual arts and artists: videos produced with Inuit filmmakers on climate change and Inuit traditional knowledge, on everyday life in the far North, and others; photographs of majestic Nature; and awe-inspiring photos that the Canadian astronaut, Chris Hadfield, took from outer space.

Climate is Culture was spectacular. Yet the event left us haunted by the thought that the sustainable, vibrant, dare we say “Anthropocene” future we had hoped to find looked strikingly like the present – or even the past. Nature had thoroughly bifurcated from Culture, while Culture had simultaneously split in two: planet destroyers (the global, modern, fossil-fuel-burning West) versus innocent victims (the local, traditional Rest). Modern dualisms ran amok, creating Nature and Culture, local and global, Moderns and non-moderns everywhere we turned. One prominently-displayed photo captured the mood most eloquently: a lone, Inuk elder standing on an ice flow, poised to harpoon an unsuspecting walrus poking its head out from beneath the sea (similar to Figure 1 above, add walrus). “Lukie, 70, prepares to harpoon a walrus while standing on moving ice in Foxe Basin,” read the caption. It continued: “This scene could have been from a thousand years ago, but it is today.” The photographer, a visual artist and Associate Professor of Geography at a major Canadian university, provided the perfect title: “1000 Years Ago Today.” Though the photo, caption and title said it all, a further plaque was provided, just in case:

The Arctic: A Place of Global Warming and Wisdom

Arctic climate change is a hot topic with surface air temperatures in the region warming at double the global average, and corresponding loss of sea ice, glaciers, and permafrost being observed by both scientists and local people. In Canada’s North, Inuit are on the front lines, and traditional knowledge and experience indicate that climate change already affects travel routes and safety; wildlife, vegetation and habitat; human food security and health; and communities and coastal infrastructure. These cumulative impacts challenge cultural and social identity. However, with an ancient culture, persisting over millennia, Inuit show that human ingenuity, connectedness with the land, and respect for future generations are all-important teachings for the modern world as we collectively face climate change, the paramount issue of our time.

*   *   *

So, what should we think when so many cutting-edge scientists including anthropologists, avant-garde artists, activists, journalists, charitable foundations, non-profit and government funders from across the planet are living happily in the Holocene – as if our theoretical lexicons and social imagination were firmly fixed, if not 1000 years ago today, perhaps 100? Who in this world is ready for an Anthropocene Anthropology? Are there grounds for hope? Enthusiasm? We think so, but only with certain shifts in anthropological practice.

First of all, more critical reflections, debates and theorising of anthropological knowledge practices around climate change are required. Many anthropological writings on climate change imply that holistically integrating our discipline’s disparate questions and theoretical concerns, knowledges and knowledge practices is possible and desirable – a win-win scenario, as it were. This approach is seductive: it suggests that every anthropologist can contribute her or his crucial piece of the climate change puzzle. But it is also seriously undertheorised, and does not accord with current thinking in the social sciences – including in anthropology – about what knowledge is and how it works. Partial connections and incommensurabilities render puzzle metaphors suspect. Knowledges are not puzzle pieces, nor can they simply “add up” to create “the whole.” Focus is required. Choices are always made. Power is never absent. Such commonplaces hold within as well as beyond anthropology. For these reasons, sustained engagements with social theory and the anthropology of knowledge would prove productive. How should we understand climate change anthropologically? Which of our many competing analytics provide the most theoretical purchase over the problem at hand? What are their real-world consequences? Should we dwell on culture or “culture”? Local or “local”? Or something altogether different, of which many promising candidates exist? Forging a meaningful Anthropocene Anthropology will mean prioritising certain anthropological knowledges, analytics and concerns over others. We can’t have it all ways.

Second, whatever our disciplinary response, we must recognise that anthropologists may not be the final arbiters on which of our knowledges and knowledge practices find favour in the wider world. Anthropology, after all, exists in a broader context. And as every anthropologist knows, context matters. The way forward is thus not to repeat, at higher volume, the truism that anthropology has lots to offer. It is to anthropologise the myriad Euro-American contexts in which climate change knowledge is produced and put to work. This means critically interrogating natural and social science knowledge practices surrounding climate change (e.g., interdisciplinarity, collaboration, producing “useful knowledge,” etc.), as well as the disparate policy and science policy realms through which scientific knowledges of climate change are institutionalised. Venerable traditions in political and legal anthropology, and in the anthropology of science and of policy, point the way. But whatever context we choose to study – there are many – Anthropocene Anthropology has its work cut out for it. For in today’s world, as Geertz might have said, it’s Holocene turtles all the way down.

References

Fiske, Shirley, J., Crate, Susan A., Crumley, Carole L., Galvin, Kathleen A., Lazrus, Heather, Luber, George, Lucero, Lisa, Oliver-Smith, Anthony, Orlove, Ben, Strauss, Sarah and Wilk, Richard R. 2014. Changing the atmosphere: anthropology and climate change. Final Report of the AAA Global Climate Change Task Force. Arlington, VA: American Anthropological Association.

Hall, Elizabeth F. and Sanders, Todd. 2015. Accountability and the academy: producing knowledge about the human dimensions of climate change. [link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-9655.12162/epdf] Journal of the Royal Anthropological Institute 21(2): 438-461.

Hamilton, Clive, Bonneuil, Christophe and Gemenne, François, eds. 2015. The Anthropocene and the global environmental crisis: rethinking modernity in a new epoch. London: Routledge.

Hastrup, Kirsten. 2009. Waterworlds: framing the question of social resilience. Pp. 11-30 in The question of resilience: social responses to climate change, ed. K. Hastrup. Copenhagen: Special-Trykkeriet Viborg a-s.

Hulme, Mike. 2011. Meet the humanities. Nature Climate Change 1: 177-79.

Jasanoff, Sheila. 2010. A new climate for society. Theory, Culture & Society 27(2-3): 233-53.

Latour, Bruno. 2014. Anthropology at the time of the Anthropocene: a personal view of what is to be studied. 113th Annual Meeting of the American Anthropological Association Annual Meeting. Washington DC.

Liu, Jianguo, Dietz, Thomas, Carpenter, Stephen R., Folke, Carl, Alberti, Marina, Redman, Charles L., Schneider, Stephen H., Ostrom, Elinor, Pell, Alice N., Lubchenco, Jane, Taylor, William W., Ouyang, Zhiyun, Deadman, Peter, Kratz, Timothy and Provencher, William. 2007. Coupled human and natural systems. Ambio 36(8): 639-49.

Sarofim, Marcus C. and Reilly, John M. 2011. Applications of integrated assessment modeling to climate change. WIREs Climate Change 2: 27-44.

Watt-Cloutier, Sheila. 2015. The right to be cold: one woman’s story of protecting her culture, and the Arctic and the whole planet. Toronto: Allen Lane.

Extreme weather: Is it all in your mind? (USA Today)

Thomas M. Kostigen, Special for USA TODAY9:53 a.m. EDT October 17, 2015

Weather is not as objective an occurrence as it might seem. People’s perceptions of what makes weather extreme are influenced by where they live, their income, as well as their political views, a new study finds.

There is a difference in both seeing and believing in extreme weather events, according to the study in the journal Environmental Sociology.

“Odds were higher among younger, female, more educated, and Democratic respondents to perceive effects from extreme weather than older, male, less educated, and Republican respondents,” said the study’s author, Matthew Cutler of the University of New Hampshire.

There were other correlations, too. For example, people with lower incomes had higher perceptions of extreme weather than people who earned more. Those who live in more vulnerable areas, as might be expected, interpret the effects of weather differently when the costs to their homes and communities are highest.

Causes of extreme weather and the frequency of extreme weather events is an under-explored area from a sociological perspective. Better understanding is important to building more resilient and adaptive communities. After all, why prepare or take safety precautions if you believe the weather isn’t going to be all that bad or occur all that often?

The U.S. Climate Extremes Index, compiled by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), shows a significant rise in extreme weather events since the 1970s, the most back-to-back years of extremes over the past decade since 1910, and all-time record-high levels clocked in 1998 and 2012.

“Some recent research has demonstrated linkages between objectively measured weather, or climate anomalies, and public concern or beliefs about climate change,” Cutler notes. “But the factors influencing perceptions of extreme or unusual weather events have received less attention.”

Indeed, there is a faction of the public that debates how much the climate is changing and which factors are responsible for such consequences as global warming.

Weather, on the other hand, is a different order of things: it is typically defined in the here and now or in the immediate future. It also is largely confined, because of its variability, to local or regional areas. Moreover, weather is something we usually experience directly.

Climate is a more abstract concept, typically defined as atmospheric conditions over a 30-year period.

When weather isn’t experiential, reports are relied upon to gauge extremes. This is when beliefs become more muddied.

“The patterns found in this research provide evidence that individuals experience extreme weather in the context of their social circumstances and thus perceive the impacts of extreme weather through the lens of cultural and social influences. In other words, it is not simply a matter of seeing to believe, but rather an emergent process of both seeing and believing — individuals experiencing extreme weather and interpreting the impacts against the backdrop of social and economic circumstances central to and surrounding their lives,” Cutler concludes.

Sophocles said, “what people believe prevails over the truth.” The consequences of disbelief come at a price in the context of extreme weather, however, as damage, injury, and death are often results.

Too many times do we hear about people being unprepared for storms, ignoring officials’ warnings, failing to evacuate, or engaging in reckless behavior during weather extremes.

There is a need to draw a more complete picture of “weather prejudice,” as I’ll call it, in order to render more practical advice about preparing, surviving, and recovering from what is indisputable: extreme weather disasters to come.

Thomas M. Kostigen is the founder of TheClimateSurvivalist.com and a New York Times bestselling author and journalist. He is the National Geographic author of “The Extreme Weather Survival Guide: Understand, Prepare, Survive, Recover” and the NG Kids book, “Extreme Weather: Surviving Tornadoes, Tsunamis, Hailstorms, Thundersnow, Hurricanes and More!” Follow him @weathersurvival, or email kostigen@theclimatesurvivalist.com.

France’s top weatherman sparks storm over book questioning climate change (The Telegraph)

Philippe Verdier, weather chief at France Télévisions, the country’s state broadcaster, reportedly sent on “forced holiday” for releasing book accusing top climatologists of “taking the world hostage”

Philippe Verdier's outspoken views reportedly led France 2 to send him on a 'forced holiday'

Philippe Verdier’s outspoken views reportedly led France 2 to send him on a ‘forced holiday’ 

 By , Paris

Every night, France’s chief weatherman has told the nation how much wind, sun or rain they can expect the following day.

Now Philippe Verdier, a household name for his nightly forecasts on France 2, has been taken off air after a more controversial announcement – criticising the world’s top climate change experts.

Mr Verdier claims in the book Climat Investigation (Climate Investigation) that leading climatologists and political leaders have “taken the world hostage” with misleading data.

In a promotional video, Mr Verdier said: “Every night I address five million French people to talk to you about the wind, the clouds and the sun. And yet there is something important, very important that I haven’t been able to tell you, because it’s neither the time nor the place to do so.”

He added: “We are hostage to a planetary scandal over climate change – a war machine whose aim is to keep us in fear.”

His outspoken views led France 2 to take him off the air starting this Monday. “I received a letter telling me not to come. I’m in shock,” he told RTL radio. “This is a direct extension of what I say in my book, namely that any contrary views must be eliminated.”

The book has been released at a particularly sensitive moment as Paris is due to host a crucial UN climate change conference in December. 

 par Editions_Ring

According to Mr Verdier, top climate scientists, who often rely on state funding, have been “manipulated and politicised”.

He specifically challenges the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, saying they “blatantly erased” data that went against their overall conclusions, and casts doubt on the accuracy of their climate models.

The IPCC has said that temperatures could rise by up to 4.8°C if no action is taken to reduce carbon emissions.

Mr Verdier writes: “We are undoubtedly on a plateau in terms of warming and the cyclical variability of the climate doesn’t not allow us to envisage if the natural rhythm will tomorrow lead us towards a fall, a stagnation or a rise (in temperature).”

The 330-page book also controversially contains a chapter on the “positive results” of climate change in France, one of the countries predicted to be the least affected by rising temperatures. “It’s politically incorrect and taboo to vaunt the merits of climate change because there are some,” he writes, citing warmer weather attracting tourists, lower death rates and electricity bills in mild winters, and better wine and champagne vintages.

Asked whether he had permission from his employer to release the book, he said: “I don’t think management liked it, let’s be honest.”

“I put myself via this investigation on the path of COP 21, which is a bulldozer, and we can see the results.”

The book was criticised by French newspaper Le Monde as full of “errors”. “The models used to predict the average rise in temperatures on the surface of the globe have proved to be rather reliable, with the gap between observations and predictions quite small,” it countered.

Mr Verdier told France 5: “Making these revelations in the book, which I absolutely have the right to do, can pose problems for my employer given that the government (which funds France 2) is organising COP [the climate change conference]. In fact as soon as you a slightly different discourse on this subject, you are branded a climate sceptic.”

He said he decided to write the book in June 2014 when Laurent Fabius, the French foreign minister, summoned the country’s main weather presenters and urged them to mention “climate chaos” in their forecasts.

“I was horrified by this discourse,” Mr Verdier told Les Inrockuptibles magazine. Eight days later, Mr Fabius appeared on the front cover of a magazine posing as a weatherman above the headline: “500 days to save the planet.”

Mr Verdier said: “If a minister decides he is Mr Weatherman, then Mr Weatherman can also express himself on the subject in a lucid manner.

“What’s shameful is this pressure placed on us to say that if we don’t hurry, it’ll be the apocalypse,” he added, saying that “climate diplomacy” means leaders are seeking to force changes to suit their own political timetables.

According to L’Express magazine, unions at France Television called for Mr Verdier to be fired, but that Delphine Ernotte, the broadcaster’s chief executive, initially said he should be allowed to stay “in the name of freedom of expression”.

Aquecimento pode triplicar seca na Amazônia (Observatório do Clima)

15/10/2015

 Seca em Silves (AM) em 2005. Foto: Ana Cintia Gazzelli/WWF

Seca em Silves (AM) em 2005. Foto: Ana Cintia Gazzelli/WWF

Modelos de computador sugerem que leste amazônico, que contém a maior parte da floresta, teria mais estiagens, incêndios e morte de árvores, enquanto o oeste ficaria mais chuvoso.

As mudanças climáticas podem aumentar a frequência tanto de secas quanto de chuvas extremas na Amazônia antes do meio do século, compondo com o desmatamento para causar mortes maciças de árvores, incêndios e emissões de carbono. A conclusão é de uma avaliação de 35 modelos climáticos aplicados à região, feita por pesquisadores dos EUA e do Brasil.

Segundo o estudo, liderado por Philip Duffy, do WHRC (Instituto de Pesquisas de Woods Hole, nos EUA) e da Universidade Stanford, a área afetada por secas extremas no leste amazônico, região que engloba a maior parte da Amazônia, pode triplicar até 2100. Paradoxalmente, a frequência de períodos extremamente chuvosos e a área sujeita a chuvas extremas tende a crescer em toda a região após 2040 – mesmo nos locais onde a precipitação média anual diminuir.

Já o oeste amazônico, em especial o Peru e a Colômbia, deve ter um aumento na precipitação média anual.

A mudança no regime de chuvas é um efeito há muito teorizado do aquecimento global. Com mais energia na atmosfera e mais vapor d’água, resultante da maior evaporação dos oceanos, a tendência é que os extremos climáticos sejam amplificados. As estações chuvosas – na Amazônia, o período de verão no hemisfério sul, chamado pelos moradores da região de “inverno” ficam mais curtas, mas as chuvas caem com mais intensidade.

No entanto, a resposta da floresta essas mudanças tem sido objeto de controvérsias entre os cientistas. Estudos da década de 1990 propuseram que a reação da Amazônia fosse ser uma ampla “savanização”, ou mortandade de grandes árvores, e a transformação de vastas porções da selva numa savana empobrecida.

Outros estudos, porém, apontaram que o calor e o CO2 extra teriam o efeito oposto – o de fazer as árvores crescerem mais e fixarem mais carbono, de modo a compensar eventuais perdas por seca. Na média, portanto, o impacto do aquecimento global sobre a Amazônia seria relativamente pequeno.

Ocorre que a própria Amazônia encarregou-se de dar aos cientistas dicas de como reagiria. Em 2005, 2007 e 2010, a floresta passou por secas históricas. O resultado foi ampla mortalidade de árvores e incêndios em florestas primárias em mais de 85 mil quilômetros quadrados. O grupo de Duffy, também integrado por Paulo Brando, do Ipam (Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia), aponta que de 1% a 2% do carbono da Amazônia foi lançado na atmosfera em decorrência das secas da década de 2000. Brando e colegas do Ipam também já haviam mostrado que a Amazônia está mais inflamável, provavelmente devido aos efeitos combinados do clima e do desmatamento.

Os pesquisadores simularam o clima futuro da região usando os modelos do chamado projeto CMIP5, usado pelo IPCC (Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudança Climática) no seu último relatório de avaliação do clima global. Um dos membros do grupo, Chris Field, de Stanford, foi um dos coordenadores do relatório – foi também candidato à presidência do IPCC na eleição realizada na semana passada, perdendo para o coreano Hoesung Lee.

Os modelos de computador foram testados no pior cenário de emissões, o chamado RMP 8.5, no qual se assume que pouca coisa será feita para controlar emissões de gases-estufa.

Eles não apenas captaram bem a influência das temperaturas dos oceanos Atlântico e Pacífico sobre o padrão de chuvas na Amazônia – diferenças entre os dois oceanos explicam por que o leste amazônico ficará mais seco e o oeste, mais úmido –, como também mostraram nas simulações de seca futura uma característica das secas recorde de 2005 e 2010: o extremo norte da Amazônia teve grande aumento de chuvas enquanto o centro e o sul estorricavam.

Segundo os pesquisadores, o estudo pode ser até mesmo conservador, já que só levou em conta as variações de precipitação. “Por exemplo, as chuvas no leste da Amazônia têm uma forte dependência da evapotranspiração, então uma redução na cobertura de árvores poderia reduzir a precipitação”, escreveram Duffy e Brando. “Isso sugere que, se os processos relacionados a mudanças no uso da terra fossem mais bem representados nos modelos do CMIP5, a intensidade das secas poderia ser maior do que a projetada aqui.”

O estudo foi publicado na PNAS, a revista da Academia Nacional de Ciências dos EUA. (Observatório do Clima/ #Envolverde)

* Publicado originalmente no site Observatório do Clima.

Exxon’s climate lie: ‘No corporation has ever done anything this big or bad’ (The Guardian)

The truth of Exxon’s complicity in global warming must to be told – how they knew about climate change decades ago but chose to help kill our planet

Exxon refinery in Texas

By 1978 Exxon’s senior scientists were telling top management that climate change was real, caused by man, and would raise global temperatures by 2-3C. Photograph: Pat Sullivan/AP

I’m well aware that with Paris looming it’s time to be hopeful, and I’m willing to try. Even amid the record heat and flooding of the present, there are good signs for the future in the rising climate movement and the falling cost of solar.

But before we get to past and present there’s some past to be reckoned with, and before we get to hope there’s some deep, blood-red anger.

In the last three weeks, two separate teams of journalists — the Pulitzer-prize winning reporters at the website Inside Climate News and another crew composed of Los Angeles Times veterans and up-and-comers at the Columbia Journalism School — have begun publishing the results of a pair of independent investigations into ExxonMobil.

Though they draw on completely different archives, leaked documents, and interviews with ex-employees, they reach the same damning conclusion: Exxon knew all that there was to know about climate change decades ago, and instead of alerting the rest of us denied the science and obstructed the politics of global warming.

To be specific:

  • By 1978 Exxon’s senior scientists were telling top management that climate change was real, caused by man, and would raise global temperatures by 2-3C this century, which was pretty much spot-on.
  • By the early 1980s they’d validated these findings with shipborne measurements of CO2 (they outfitted a giant tanker with carbon sensors for a research voyage) and with computer models that showed precisely what was coming. As the head of one key lab at Exxon Research wrote to his superiors, there was “unanimous agreement in the scientific community that a temperature increase of this magnitude would bring about significant changes in the earth’s climate, including rainfall distribution and alterations in the biosphere”.
  • And by the early 1990s their researchers studying the possibility for new exploration in the Arctic were well aware that human-induced climate change was melting the poles. Indeed, they used that knowledge to plan their strategy, reporting that soon the Beaufort Sea would be ice-free as much as five months a year instead of the historic two. Greenhouse gases are rising “due to the burning of fossil fuels,” a key Exxon researcher told an audience of engineers at a conference in 1991. “Nobody disputes this fact.”

But of course Exxon did dispute that fact. Not inside the company, where they used their knowledge to buy oil leases in the areas they knew would melt, but outside, where they used their political and financial might to make sure no one took climate change seriously.

They helped organise campaigns designed to instil doubt, borrowing tactics and personnel from the tobacco industry’s similar fight. They funded “institutes” devoted to outright climate denial. And at the highest levels they did all they could to spread their lies.

To understand the treachery – the sheer, profound, and I think unparalleled evil – of Exxon, one must remember the timing. Global warming became a public topic in 1988, thanks to Nasa scientist James Hansen – it’s taken a quarter-century and counting for the world to take effective action. If at any point in that journey Exxon – largest oil company on Earth, most profitable enterprise in human history – had said: “Our own research shows that these scientists are right and that we are in a dangerous place,” the faux debate would effectively have ended. That’s all it would have taken; stripped of the cover provided by doubt, humanity would have gotten to work.

Instead, knowingly, they helped organise the most consequential lie in human history, and kept that lie going past the point where we can protect the poles, prevent the acidification of the oceans, or slow sea level rise enough to save the most vulnerable regions and cultures. Businesses misbehave all the time, but VW is the flea to Exxon’s elephant. No corporation has ever done anything this big and this bad.

I’m aware that anger at this point does little good. I’m aware that all clever people will say “of course they did” or “we all use fossil fuels”, as if either claim is meaningful. I’m aware that nothing much will happen to Exxon – I doubt they’ll be tried in court, or their executives sent to jail.

But nonetheless it seems crucial simply to say, for the record, the truth: this company had the singular capacity to change the course of world history for the better and instead it changed that course for the infinitely worse. In its greed Exxon helped — more than any other institution — to kill our planet.

Brasileira é eleita vice-presidente do IPCC (Observatório do Clima)

07/10/2015

Thelma Krug, pesquisadora do Inpe e ex-secretária nacional de Mudança Climática, dividirá função com uma americana e um malês; painel do clima se reúne na Croácia para eleger novos líderes

Thelma Krug, em foto de 2009 (Foto: IISD)

Thelma Krug, em foto de 2009 (Foto: IISD)

DO OC

A matemática Thelma Krug, 64, do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, foi eleita na manhã desta quarta-feira para uma das três vice-presidências do IPCC (Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas).

Ela dividirá a função com a americana Ko Barrett, da Noaa (Agência Nacional de Oceanos e Atmosfera) e com o malês Youba Sokona, diretor de Desenvolvimento Sustentável do South Centre, na Suíça.

Barrett é há 15 anos representante do governo americano no IPCC; Sokona foi um dos coordenadores do Grupo de Trabalho 3 (que produz os relatórios do IPCC sobre mitigação) durante o Quinto Relatório de Avaliação, o AR5, lançado em 2014. Krug chefia há 13 anos a força-tarefa do IPCC sobre inventários de emissões de gases-estufa.

Ex-secretária nacional de Mudança Climática (governo Lula), Thelma Krug trabalha no Inpe com monitoramento de mudança de uso da terra. Foi responsável pelo primeiro inventário brasileiro de emissões por desmatamento. Coordenou até 2001 o monitoramento por satélite da Amazônia, feito pelo sistema Prodes, que informa a taxa oficial de perda de floresta.

Com a eleição dos vice-presidentes, o IPCC tem na sua liderança uma maioria de representantes de países em desenvolvimento. Nesta terça-feira, o sul-coreano Hoesung Lee foi eleito presidente do painel do clima. Para a Convenção do Clima da ONU, a Coreia do Sul é considerada país em desenvolvimento.

A 42a reunião plenária do IPCC, que ocorre em Dubrovnik, Croácia, elegeria nesta quarta-feira ainda os seis co-presidentes dos grupos de trabalho 1 (que lida com a base física das mudanças do clima), 2 (que lida com impactos e vulnerabilidades) e 3 (mitigação).

Borboletas estão encolhendo por causa das mudanças climáticas (O Globo)

Estudo mostra redução no tamanho de duas espécies na Groenlândia

POR O GLOBO

A Boloria chariclea foi uma das espécies analisadas pelos pesquisadores – Divulgação/Toke T. Hoye

RIO — As mudanças climáticas já provocam impactos sobre a Humanidade, mas também sobre algumas espécies animais. Um estudo publicado ontem na revista científica “Biology Letters” mostra que borboletas na Groenlândia se tornaram menores como resposta ao aumento das temperaturas. Para os pesquisadores, a mudança no tamanho corporal prejudica a mobilidade, que pode causar graves consequências à dinâmica populacional e distribuição geográfica das espécies.

Pesquisadores da Universidade de Aarhus, na Dinamarca, analisaram aproximadamente 4,5 mil borboletas de duas espécies diferentes capturadas entre 1996 e 2013. Os resultados apontaram para uma redução no tamanho das asas, na mesma taxa em ambas as espécies, provocada pelo aumento das temperaturas durante o verão. As espécies estudadas foram a Boloria chariclea e a Colias hecla.

— Nossos estudos mostram que machos e fêmeas seguem o mesmo padrão, que é similar em duas espécies diferentes, o que sugere que o clima exerce um papel importante na determinação do tamanho corporal das borboletas na Groenlândia — explicou Toke T. Hoye, pesquisador da Universidade de Aarhus.Esse é um dos primeiros estudos a acompanhar mudanças no tamanho corporal de uma espécie durante um período de mudanças climáticas, e corrobora pesquisas realizadas em laboratório, mas raramente demonstradas em campo.

A Colias hecla está ficando menor por causa dos verões mais quentes no Ártico – Divulgação/Toke T. Hoye

Experimentos apontam que a mudança no tamanho corporal é uma resposta antecipada às mudanças climáticas, que pode acontecer de duas maneiras. Para algumas espécies, uma temporada maior de alimentação pode resultar no aumento do tamanho, enquanto para outras, alterações metabólicas provocam a perda de energia e consequente redução das dimensões.

— Nós, humanos, usamos mais energia quando está frio, porque precisamos manter a temperatura corporal constante — disse Hoye. — Mas para a larva da borboleta e outros animais de sangue frio, que dependem do ambiente para manter a temperatura, o metabolismo aumenta em temperaturas maiores por causa dos processos bioquímicos que se tornam mais rápidos. Dessa maneira, a larva gasta mais energia do que é capaz de consumir. Nossos resultados indicam que essa mudança é tão significativa que a taxa de crescimento das larvas diminui. E quando as larvas são menores, as borboletas também se tornam menores.

As consequências para as borboletas do Ártico podem ser significativas. Com corpos menores, a mobilidade é reduzida. Como as duas espécies vivem apenas no Norte, a redução no tamanho pode ter graves consequências na dinâmica populacional, e prejudicar a dispersão dos insetos.

— Elas vivem tão ao Norte que não podem se mover para regiões mais frias, e elas provavelmente vão desaparecer da parte mais ao Sul da Groenlândia por causa do aumento da temperatura — disse Hoye. — Além disso, sua capacidade de dispersão está se deteriorando, e corpos menores devem resultar em menor taxa de fecundidade. Então, essas espécies do Ártico devem enfrentar desafios severos causados pela rápida mudança climática.

Leia mais sobre esse assunto em  http://oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/sustentabilidade/borboletas-estao-encolhendo-por-causa-das-mudancas-climaticas-17714284#ixzz3o0Y0gr6z
© 1996 – 2015. Todos direitos reservados a Infoglobo Comunicação e Participações S.A. Este material não pode ser publicado, transmitido por broadcast, reescrito ou redistribuído sem autorização.

ONU desiste de criar órgão para cuidar de refugiados climáticos (O Globo)

Ideia foi retirada do rascunho de acordo que será levado à Conferência de Paris

POR O GLOBO

Operários cruzam com o Ministro das Relações Exteriores da França, Laurent Fabius, durante sua visita ao local onde será realizada a 21ª Conferência do Clima, em Le Bourget – JACKY NAEGELEN / REUTERS

RIO — O rascunho do acordo global sobre mudanças climáticas, publicado pela Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU) na última segunda-feira, já mostra alterações feitas, aparentemente, devido a pressões de alguns países. O documento será usado como base para as negociações durante a 21ª Conferência do Clima (COP 21) em Paris, em dezembro.Porém, foi retirada do documento a ideia de se criar um organismo para ajudar as pessoas a escapar dos desastres causados pelas mudanças climáticas.

Segundo o site do jornal britânico “The Guardian”, o passo atrás aconteceu por pressão da Austrália, que vem sendo criticada por sua pouca ambição em diminuir a emissão de gases de efeito estufa. A versão anterior do acordo incluía “instalações para a coordenação dos deslocamentos causados pelas mudanças climáticas” que deveriam prover “migrações organizadas e realocações planejadas”, assim como compensações, em dinheiro, para as pessoas que necessitam deixar suas casas para escapar da elevação do nível do mar, de condições meteorológicas extremas ou se mudar por conta da destruição da agricultura local.

A Austrália, no entanto, se opôs à criação das instalações, e essa medida foi retirada do novo texto. “A Austrália não vê a criação de instalações para a coordenação dos deslocamentos causados pelo clima como a maneira mais eficaz ou eficiente de progredir em direção a uma ação internacional significativa para enfrentar os impactos das mudanças climáticas”, disse um porta-voz do Ministério das Relações Exteriores e Comércio, segundo o jornal “Guardian”. “A Austrália já está trabalhando com os nossos parceiros do Pacífico nessas questões importantes”.O país da Oceania já gastou mais de US$ 50 milhões em projetos de combate às mudanças climáticas no Pacífico e contribuiu com US$ 200 milhões para o Fundo Verde do Clima, mas vem sendo criticado por sua falta de ambição em cortar suas emissões de gases do efeito estufa e não ter um quadro político que apoie a causa de maneira consistente. O novo rascunho de 20 páginas, que substituiu outro, de 90, exortou todas as nações a se comprometerem com políticas de mitigação e endurecerem seus compromissos a cada cinco anos.

O projeto também salienta a importância da cooperação internacional e do apoio aos esforços de adaptação dos países em desenvolvimento, mais vulneráveis aos efeitos da mudança climática. O acordo ainda aponta a necessidade de todos os governos estarem engajados na causa.

Os impactos da mudanças climáticas devem deslocar até 250 milhões de pessoas em todo o mundo até 2050, incluindo muitos habitantes das ilhas do Pacífico. Em algumas áreas do Pacífico, o nível do mar está subindo 1,2 centímetros por ano, quatro vezes mais rápido do que a média global, o que é alarmante. Em ilhas a dois ou três metros acima do nível do mar, comunidades já estão sendo realocadas, e a água potável e as colheitas são constantemente ameaçadas por inundações de água salgada.

A COP 21 terá como principal objetivo costurar um novo acordo entre os países para diminuir a emissão de gases de efeito estufa, diminuindo o aquecimento global e, em consequência, limitar o aumento da temperatura global em 2ºC até 2100.

Leia mais sobre esse assunto em  http://oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/sustentabilidade/onu-desiste-de-criar-orgao-para-cuidar-de-refugiados-climaticos-17709772#ixzz3o0X1HOcF
© 1996 – 2015. Todos direitos reservados a Infoglobo Comunicação e Participações S.A. Este material não pode ser publicado, transmitido por broadcast, reescrito ou redistribuído sem autorização.

Desastres naturais forçam migrações de 60 mil por dia (O Globo)

Vítimas das mudanças climáticas deslocam-se em busca de meios de subsistência

POR RENATO GRANDELLE

Somalis caminham em direção a um campo de refugiados no Quênia: desertificação do campo – Rebecca Blackwell/AP

BOGOTÁ — O Pentágono chama de “multiplicação de ameaças”. O secretário de Estado americano, John Kerry, alerta para os “novos refugiados”. Sua antecessora, a pré-candidata à Presidência dos EUA Hillary Clinton, ressalta a “guerra pela água”. Paddy Ashdown, um político veterano britânico, acredita que o planeta vive uma “crise humanitária”. Não importa o termo, a população desalojada pelas mudanças climáticas e pelas catástrofes naturais preocupa autoridades mundiais. Estima-se que, desde 2008, cerca de 22,5 milhões de pessoas deixaram suas casas, por ano, devido a eventos extremos do clima — o equivalente a 62 mil casos diários. Este cenário ainda pode piorar.

Essas pessoas são desabrigadas por problemas como a desertificação de terras, ou mesmo por catástrofes como tufões e inundações, mais comuns devido às mudanças no clima. A odisseia em busca de moradia pode começar dentro do próprio país. Normalmente, os refugiados migram do campo para áreas urbanas, onde enfrentam problemas, já que habilidades como o cultivo agrícola não podem ser aproveitadas.— Cada centro urbano deve desenvolver uma forma para reduzir o contraste entre a elite local e os miseráveis que chegam — defendeu Beatriz Sanches, professora de Direito Internacional da Universidade de Los Andes, na Colômbia, durante o Encontro das Américas sobre as Mudanças Climáticas, que aconteceu em Bogotá. — Mesmo diante das dificuldades das zonas rurais, deixamos que um Deus Todo Poderoso resolva tudo.

EXCLUÍDOS NA CIDADE

Javier Gonzaga, da Faculdade de Ciências Jurídicas e Sociais da Universidade de Caldas, também da Colômbia, assinala que os migrantes climáticos não conseguem mais manter os meios seculares que garantiam sua sobrevivência.

— Não é possível saber se a principal causa da migração é a pobreza ou a destruição do ecossistema rural. Ambos estão unidos — explica Gonzaga. — A vulnerabilidade social, associada às migrações ligadas ao clima, está aumentando com diferentes intensidades em cada país. Alguns cenários alarmistas previstos pela ONU para 2070 já podem ocorrer no meio do século.

A ONU e algumas instituições de pesquisa, como o Centro de Monitoramento de Deslocamento do Conselho Norueguês de Refugiados, acreditam que o número de pessoas desalojadas pelo clima pode chegar à marca de 250 milhões, por ano, em 2050.

A categoria de migrantes climáticos não é protegida pelo direito internacional, como são os refugiados de guerra que há meses deixam a Síria ou as vítimas de violações de direitos humanos. Então, podem ser obrigados a voltar para a região devastada. Também precisam adaptar-se a diferentes legislações, idiomas e culturas, e podem ser excluídos de sistemas básicos de assistência social, como o acesso a escolas ou a programas de saúde.

Refugiados sírios passam por cerca para atravessar a fronteira entre a Sérvia e a Hungria: além da guerra civil, país asiático sofre com estiagem há cinco anos – Bela Szandelszky/AP

Para piorar, há uma confusão crescente sobre as categorias dos refugiados. Os milhares de migrantes que tentam trocar a guerra civil na Síria pela Europa Ocidental fogem também da seca. Entre 2006 e 2011, o país asiático sofreu com a estiagem. O mesmo problema se manifesta na África, onde somalis e etíopes testemunham a desertificação do campo, inviabilizando a agricultura de subsistência. Tentam buscar uma solução nas balsas lotadas que atravessam o Mar Mediterrâneo, em direção à Itália.

— Em qualquer lugar do planeta, as mudanças climáticas podem levar à desertificação e à perda da qualidade de vida. Com um ambiente propício à violência, pode ocorrer um cenário semelhante ao da Síria — avalia o economista Pavan Sukhdev, embaixador da ONU para Meio Ambiente, que esteve semana passada no Fórum Agenda Bahia. — E há locais em que o clima, sozinho, já serve como um gatilho para a migração. O derretimento de calotas polares da Antártica e do Ártico, por exemplo, pode levar a um aumento do nível do mar de até seis metros neste século.

A inundação teria consequências drásticas em Bangladesh, o oitavo país mais populoso do mundo, que perderia para as águas cerca de 17% de seu território até 2050. Estes eventos extremos levariam ao surgimento de mais de 20 milhões de refugiados climáticos naquela região.

Alguns Estados insulares já providenciam o deslocamento de sua população. O arquipélago de Kiribati, no Oceano Pacífico, comprou terras na vizinha Fiji. No Oceano Índico, as Maldivas perderiam todas as suas 1.200 ilhas. A economia, baseada no turismo e na pesca, seria aniquilada. Por isso, seu governo planeja construir ilhas artificiais flutuantes, enquanto negocia programas de evacuação com autoridades da Austrália e da Índia.

— A falta de preparo para lidar com as catástrofes naturais sempre foi um grande desafio para as nações — lamenta Irwin Redlener, diretor do Centro Nacional de Preparação para Desastres dos EUA. — Às vezes, os custos são importantes. Em outras ocasiões, há fatores psicológicos e culturais que inibem a adoção de uma “preparação mental” entre os cidadãos ou mesmo dos chefes de Estado.

MORTE DOS CORAIS

Segundo Sukhdev, as consequências das mudanças climáticas nos oceanos podem repercutir mesmo nos países que não correm risco de serem afundados.

— Os oceanos vão absorver o excesso de carbono na atmosfera e, com isso, as águas ficarão mais ácidas — descreve. — A vida marinha dos corais, que são a fonte de alimentação dos peixes, está ameaçada. Até 600 milhões de pessoas que dependem da indústria pesqueira nos litorais não conseguirão manter sua atividade econômica e precisarão migrar. E, muitas vezes, estão próximas a zonas urbanas superpopulosas, onde não devem encontrar espaço ou oportunidades.

Coordenador do Centro Universitário de Estudos e Pesquisas sobre Desastres (Ceped-UFSC), Antonio Edésio Jungles pondera que o Brasil melhorou recentemente seus sistemas de alerta precoce contra desastres climáticos. O país, no entanto, continua exposto a fenômenos cada vez mais intensificados pelas mudanças climáticas.

— As consequências são lentas e graduais. Em Santa Catarina, por exemplo, temos problemas de estiagens cíclicas, o que faz com que a população se afaste e as empresas deixem de se instalar em algumas regiões. Essas catástrofes climáticas devem se acirrar nos próximos anos — comenta. — Tudo tem um limite, um ponto em que o equilíbrio com a cadeia produtiva, a flora e a fauna fica comprometido, e muitas vezes estas mudanças não são rapidamente percebidas.

Sukhdev já enxerga mudanças provocadas pelo clima no país.

— Algumas cidades costeiras, como Salvador, Rio, Recife e São Luís, estarão entre as prejudicadas pela modificação no ecossistema marinho — revela. — Em São Paulo, a temperatura registrada no último dia de inverno foi de 37 graus Celsius. Nem no verão este índice seria comum.

Perguntado sobre qual região do planeta estaria mais a salvo das mudanças climáticas — e receptiva aos migrantes —, Sukhdev foi taxativo:

— Estamos em uma estrada e está vindo um caminhão. Podemos sair da frente dele daqui a um segundo ou daqui a cinco ou dez, mas ele vai passar de qualquer forma. Não há uma região. O que existe é a economia verde e sustentável. E ela precisa ser adotada.

Petróleo, gás e mineração ameaçam quase um terço dos Patrimônios Naturais Mundiais (WWF)

01 Outubro 2015

Londres – 1º de outubro de 2015 – Quase um terço de todos os locais pertencentes à lista de Patrimônio Mundial Natural está ameaçado pela exploração de petróleo, gás e mineração. A informação foi divulgada no novo relatório “Protegendo um Excepcional Valor Natural”, produzido pelo WWF, Aviva Investors and Investec Asset Management, e que ressalta ainda o risco para os investidores que trabalham ou possuem a intenção de trabalhar com empresas que atuam com extração nesses lugares ou próximos a eles.

Patrimônios Mundiais Naturais (ou World Heritage Site, em inglês) são lugares de enorme valor natural, como o Grand Canyon, a Grande Barreira de Corais e a Reserva Selous Game, na Tanzânia. Cobrindo menos de 1% do planeta, eles contêm um enorme valor natural, como paisagens singulares e alguns dos animais mais raros da Terra, como gorilas da montanha, elefantes africanos, leopardos da neve, baleias e tartarugas marinhas.

De acordo com o relatório, os pontos de Patrimônio Mundial Natural estão em risco mais elevado do que jamais se pensou até então.

As ameaças estão relacionadas às operações em atividade ou à entrada de empresas para concessão de exploração de minérios, petróleo ou gás, e podem causar danos irreparáveis aos locais à biodiversidade, além de prejudicar as comunidades que tiram dali sua subsistência. No mundo todo, a maior ameaça está na África, onde o risco atinge 61% desses locais.

No relatório, os investidores estão sendo alertados dos riscos que correm ao apoiarem essas empresas – tanto riscos financeiros quanto de reputação. Em resumo, neste caso, há muito risco envolvido para um retorno que não é o suficiente.

O documento convida potenciais financiadores e apoiadores a:

•    Buscar informações se as empresas em que estão investindo, ou considerando investir, possuem concessões ou operações dentro de lugares considerados Patrimônios Mundiais Naturais;

•    Abordar diretamente companhias que trabalham nesses locais ou próximos a eles e as encorajar a mudar seus planos;

•    Considerar retirar o investimento nessas companhias se não forem tomadas medidas para sair desses lugares, e ainda divulgar o fim do apoio e as razões para isso.

O desenvolvimento alternativo e sustentável dos Patrimônios Naturais Mundiais é uma proposta muito melhor para resguardar tanto o futuro dos recursos naturais quanto o das comunidades locais, nacionais e globais. A preservação desses locais e de seus ecossistemas pode fornecer, a longo prazo, benefícios significativos, visto que:

•    93% dos Patrimônios Mundiais Naturais promovem o turismo e a recreação;
•    91% deles geram empregos;
•    84% deles contribuem para a educação.

O WWF convoca investidores a usar as evidências desse relatório para abordar as companhias de extração e encorajá-las a adotar compromissos significativos de “não atuação” e “não impacto” nos Patrimônios Mundiais Naturais, além de divulgar de forma proativa as operações em atividade (existentes, ou em vias de existir), dentro ou nas proximidades de Patrimônios Mundiais Naturais.

De acordo com o diretor-executivo do WWF do Reino Unido, David Nussbaum: “nós estamos indo aos confins da Terra em busca de mais recursos – incluindo minérios, petróleo e gás, que estão cada vez mais caros e difíceis de serem extraídos. Com isso, alguns dos lugares mais preciosos do mundo estão ameaçados por atividades industriais destrutivas que põem em perigo os valores pelos quais eles foram agraciados com o maior nível de reconhecimento do planeta”, comenta.

“Proteger esses locais únicos não é somente importante do ponto de vista ambiental, é crucial para o sustento e o futuro da população que depende deles. Os investidores têm uma oportunidade única assim como uma responsabilidade de administrar seu capital e desenhar nosso futuro”, completa Nussbaum.

Climate Debate Needs More Social Science, New Book Argues (Inside Science)

Image credit: Matt Jiggins via Flickr | http://bit.ly/1M6iSlZ

Physical scientists aren’t trained for all the political and moral issues.
Oct 2 2015 – 10:00am

By: Joel N. Shurkin, Contributor

(Inside Science) — The notion that Earth’s climate is changing—and that the threat to the world is serious—goes back to the 1980s, when a consensus began to form among climate scientists as temperatures began to rise noticeably. Thirty years later, that consensus is solid, yet climate change and the disruption it may cause remain divisive political issues, and millions of people remain unconvinced.

A new book argues that social scientists should play a greater role in helping natural scientists convince people of the reality of climate change and drive policy.

Climate Change and Society consists of 13 essays on why the debate needs the voices of social scientists, including political scientists, psychologists, anthropologists, and sociologists. It is edited by Riley E. Dunlap, professor of sociology at Oklahoma State University in Stillwater, and Robert J. Brulle, of Drexel University, professor of sociology and environmental science in Philadelphia.

Brulle said the physical scientists tend to frame climate change “as a technocratic and managerial problem.”

“Contrast that to the Pope,” he said.

Pope Francis sees it as a “political, moral issue that won’t be settled by a group of experts sitting in a room,” said Brulle, who emphasized that it will be settled by political process. Sociologists agree.

Sheila Jasanoff also agrees. She is the Pforzheimer professor of science and technology studies at the Harvard Kennedy School in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and did not participate in the book.

She said that understanding how people behave differently depending on their belief system is important.

“Denial is a somewhat mystical thing in people’s heads,” Jasanoff said. “One can bring tools of sociology of knowledge and belief—or social studies—to understand how commitments to particular statements of nature are linked with understanding how you would feel compelled to behave if nature were that way.”

Parts of the world where climate change is considered a result of the colonial past may resist taking drastic action at the behest of the former colonial rulers. Jasanoff said that governments will have to convince these groups that climate change is a present danger and attention must be paid.

Some who agree there is a threat are reluctant to advocate for drastic economic changes because they believe the world will be rescued by innovation and technology, Jasanoff said. Even among industrialized countries, views about the potential of technology differ.

Understanding these attitudes is what social scientists do, the book’s authors maintain.

“One of the most pressing contributions our field can make is to legitimate big questions, especially the ability of the current global economic system to take the steps needed to avoid catastrophic climate change,” editors of the book wrote.

The issue also is deeply embedded in the social science of economics and in the problem of “have” and “have-not” societies in consumerism and the economy.

For example, Bangladesh sits at sea level, and if the seas rise enough, nearly the entire country could disappear in the waters. Hurricane Katrina brought hints of the consequences of that reality to New Orleans, a city that now sits below sea level. The heaviest burden of the storm’s effects fell on the poor neighborhoods, Brulle said.

“The people of Bangladesh will suffer more than the people on the Upper East Side of Manhattan,” Brulle said. He said they have to be treated differently, which is not something many physical scientists studying the processes behind sea level rise have to factor into their research.

“Those of us engaged in the climate fight need valuable insight from political scientists and sociologists and psychologists and economists just as surely as from physicists,” agreed Bill McKibben, an environmentalist and author who is a scholar in residence at Middlebury College in Vermont. “It’s very clear carbon is warming the planet; it’s very unclear what mix of prods and preferences might nudge us to use much less.”


Joel Shurkin is a freelance writer in Baltimore. He was former science writer at the Philadelphia Inquirer and was part of the team that won a Pulitzer Prize for covering Three Mile Island. He has nine published books and is working on a tenth. He has taught journalism at Stanford University, the University of California at Santa Cruz and the University of Alaska Fairbanks. He tweets at @shurkin.

Aquecimento extremo trará ‘mortes em massa’ (Observatório do Clima)

aquecimentoGrupo de elite da climatologia quer que governos considerem risco de planeta esquentar de 4 a 7 graus Celsius, o que causaria o colapso da civilização; análise começa a ser feita no Brasil

Por Claudio Angelo, do OC –

30/09/2015

Um vídeo exibido a uma plateia pequena na última segunda-feira, em Brasília, mostrava sem eufemismos o que poderia acontecer com o planeta caso o aquecimento global saísse de controle e atingisse o patamar de 4oC a 7oC. Imagens de florestas queimando, lavouras mortas e inundações se sucediam enquanto uma narradora vaticinava “mortes em massa para pessoas que não tiverem ar-condicionado 24 horas por dia” e “migrações forçadas”. “Nos tornaremos parte de um ambiente extinto”, sentenciou. O fato de que a cidade passava por uma onda de calor, tendo registrado dias antes a maior temperatura desde sua fundação, ajudava a compor a atmosfera.

Num pequeno palco, em poltronas brancas, um grupo formado em sua maioria por homens de meia idade assistia à exibição. Entre eles estavam alguns membros da elite da ciência do clima, como Carlos Afonso Nobre e José Marengo, membros do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas, e Sir David King, representante para Mudanças Climáticas do Reino Unido.

Até não muito tempo atrás, esses mesmos homens descontariam como alarmismo ou ficção científica as afirmações do vídeo. Hoje, são as pesquisas deles que embasam os cenários de apocalipse pintados ali.

Os cientistas reunidos em Brasília fazem parte de um grupo internacional reunido por David King em 2013 para tentar produzir uma avaliação de riscos de mudanças climáticas extremas. O trabalho foi iniciado nos EUA, na Índia, na China e no Reino Unido e agora começa a ser feito no Brasil. Ele parte do princípio de que a probabilidade de que o aquecimento da Terra ultrapasse 4oC é baixa, mas as consequências potenciais são tão dramáticas que os governos deveriam considerá-las na hora de tomar decisões sobre corte de emissões e adaptação.

“Trata-se de uma visão muito diferente da mudança climática”, afirmou King, um físico sul-africano que serviu durante anos como conselheiro-chefe para ciência do primeiro-ministro Tony Blair. “O IPCC fez um ótimo trabalho, mas é preciso uma avaliação do risco de que aconteça algo catastrófico ligado à mudança climática.”

Ele citou como exemplo os piores cenários de mudança climática projetados para a China: elevações do nível do mar que afetassem a costa leste do país, lar de 200 milhões de pessoas, quebras da safra de arroz – que têm de 5% a 10% de chance de ocorrer mesmo com elevações modestas na temperatura – e ondas de calor que estejam acima da capacidade fisiológica de adaptação do ser humano.

“Com mais de três dias com temperaturas superiores a 40oC e muita umidade você não consegue compensar o calor pela transpiração e morre”, afirmou King.

Com um aquecimento de 4oC a 7oC, estresses múltiplos podem acontecer de uma vez em várias partes do mundo. “Estamos olhando para perdas maciças de vidas”, afirmou King. “Seria o colapso da civilização.”

Rumo ao 4°C

Os modelos climáticos usados pelo IPCC projetam diferentes variações de temperatura de acordo com a concentração de gás carbônico na atmosfera. Esses cenários se chamam RCP, sigla em inglês para “trajetórias representativas de concentração”, e medem quanto muda o balanço de radiação do planeta, em watts por metro quadrado. Eles vão de 2.6 W/m2 – o cenário compatível com a manutenção do aquecimento na meta de 2oC, considerada pela ONU o limite “seguro” – a 8.5 w/m2, que é para onde o ritmo atual de emissões está levando a humanidade.

“O RCP 8.5 nos dá quase 100% de probabilidade de o aquecimento ultrapassar os 4oC no fim deste século”, afirmou Sir David King. E quais seriam as chances de mais de 7oC? Até o fim do século, baixas. “Eu sou velho, então estou bem. Mas tenho dois netos que vão viver até o fim do século, e eles vão querer ter netos também. Não ligamos para o futuro?”

Segundo Carlos Nobre, avaliar e prevenir riscos de um aquecimento extremo é como comprar um seguro residencial: mesmo com probabilidade baixa de um desastre, é algo que não dá para não fazer, porque os custos do impacto são basicamente impossíveis de manejar.

Para o Brasil, esses riscos são múltiplos: vão desde a redução em 30% da vazão dos principais rios até o comprometimento do agronegócio e extinção de espécies. Cenários regionais traçados a partir dos modelos do IPCC já apontam para aquecimentos de até 8oC em algumas regiões do país neste século, o que tornaria essas áreas essencialmente inabitáveis por longos períodos.

“Mesmo se limitarmos as emissões a 1 trilhão de toneladas de CO2, [limite compatível com os 2oC] ainda podemos ultrapassar os 3oC”, afirmou o cientista, atualmente presidente da Capes (Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior).

Segundo ele, não há outro caminho a tomar que não seja limitar as concentrações de CO2 na atmosfera a 350 partes por milhão. Ocorre que já ultrapassamos as 400 partes por milhão em 2014, e os compromissos registrados pelos países para o acordo de Paris não são capazes nem mesmo de garantir o limite te 1 trilhão de toneladas.

Única mulher do painel, Beatriz Oliveira, da Fiocruz, apontou o risco de muita gente no Brasil literalmente morrer de calor, em especial nas regiões Norte e Nordeste. “Você poderia ficar exposto e realizar atividades externas no máximo por 30 minutos. O resto do dia teria de passar no ar-condicionado”, disse.

Questionada pela plateia ao final do evento, a pesquisadora mencionou um único lado positivo do aquecimento extremo: a redução na incidência de doenças transmitidas por insetos, como a dengue. “Nem o mosquito sobrevive”, disse. (Observatório do Clima/ #Envolverde)

* Publicado originalmente no site Observatório do Clima.

Exxon’s Own Research Confirmed Fossil Fuels’ Role in Global Warming Decades Ago (Inside Climate News)

Top executives were warned of possible catastrophe from greenhouse effect, then led efforts to block solutions.

By Neela Banerjee, Lisa Song and David Hasemyer

Sep 16, 2015

Exxon Experiment

Exxon’s Richard Werthamer (right) and Edward Garvey (left) are aboard the company’s Esso Atlantic tanker working on a project to measure the carbon dioxide levels in the ocean and atmosphere. The project ran from 1979 to 1982. (Credit: Richard Werthamer)

“In the first place, there is general scientific agreement that the most likely manner in which mankind is influencing the global climate is through carbon dioxide release from the burning of fossil fuels,” Black told Exxon’s Management Committee, according to a written version he recorded later.

It was July 1977 when Exxon’s leaders received this blunt assessment, well before most of the world had heard of the looming climate crisis.

A year later, Black, a top technical expert in Exxon’s Research & Engineering division, took an updated version of his presentation to a broader audience. He warned Exxon scientists and managers that independent researchers estimated a doubling of the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere would increase average global temperatures by 2 to 3 degrees Celsius (4 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit), and as much as 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees Fahrenheit) at the poles.  Rainfall might get heavier in some regions, and other places might turn to desert.

“Some countries would benefit but others would have their agricultural output reduced or destroyed,” Black said, in the written summary of his 1978 talk.

His presentations reflected uncertainty running through scientific circles about the details of climate change, such as the role the oceans played in absorbing emissions. Still, Black estimated quick action was needed. “Present thinking,” he wrote in the 1978 summary, “holds that man has a time window of five to ten years before the need for hard decisions regarding changes in energy strategies might become critical.”

Exxon responded swiftly. Within months the company launched its own extraordinary research into carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and its impact on the earth. Exxon’s ambitious program included both empirical CO2 sampling and rigorous climate modeling. It assembled a brain trust that would spend more than a decade deepening the company’s understanding of an environmental problem that posed an existential threat to the oil business.

Then, toward the end of the 1980s, Exxon curtailed its carbon dioxide research. In the decades that followed, Exxon worked instead at the forefront of climate denial. It put its muscle behind efforts to manufacture doubt about the reality of global warming its own scientists had once confirmed. It lobbied to block federal and international action to control greenhouse gas emissions. It helped to erect a vast edifice of misinformation that stands to this day.

This untold chapter in Exxon’s history, when one of the world’s largest energy companies worked to understand the damage caused by fossil fuels, stems from an eight-month investigation by InsideClimate News. ICN’s reporters interviewed former Exxon employees, scientists, and federal officials, and consulted hundreds of pages of internal Exxon documents, many of them written between 1977 and 1986, during the heyday of Exxon’s innovative climate research program. ICN combed through thousands of documents from archives including those held at the University of Texas-Austin, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The documents record budget requests, research priorities, and debates over findings, and reveal the arc of Exxon’s internal attitudes and work on climate and how much attention the results received.

Of particular significance was a project launched in August 1979, when the company outfitted a supertanker with custom-made instruments. The project’s mission was to sample carbon dioxide in the air and ocean along a route from the Gulf of Mexico to the Persian Gulf.

In 1980, Exxon assembled a team of climate modelers who investigated fundamental questions about the climate’s sensitivity to the buildup  of carbon dioxide in the air. Working with university scientists and the U.S. Department of Energy, Exxon strove to be on the cutting edge of inquiry into what was then called the greenhouse effect.

Exxon’s early determination to understand rising carbon dioxide levels grew out of a corporate culture of farsightedness, former employees said. They described a company that continuously examined risks to its bottom line, including environmental factors. In the 1970s, Exxon modeled its research division after Bell Labs, staffing it with highly accomplished scientists and engineers.

In written responses to questions about the history of its research, ExxonMobil spokesman Richard D. Keil said that “from the time that climate change first emerged as a topic for scientific study and analysis in the late 1970s, ExxonMobil has committed itself to scientific, fact-based analysis of this important issue.”

“At all times,” he said, “the opinions and conclusions of our scientists and researchers on this topic have been solidly within the mainstream of the consensus scientific opinion of the day and our work has been guided by an overarching principle to follow where the science leads. The risk of climate change is real and warrants action.”

At the outset of its climate investigations almost four decades ago, many Exxon executives, middle managers and scientists armed themselves with a sense of urgency and mission.

One manager at Exxon Research, Harold N. Weinberg, shared his “grandiose thoughts” about Exxon’s potential role in climate research in a March 1978 internal company memorandum that read: “This may be the kind of opportunity that we are looking for to have Exxon technology, management and leadership resources put into the context of a project aimed at benefitting mankind.”

His sentiment was echoed by Henry Shaw, the scientist leading the company’s nascent carbon dioxide research effort.

“Exxon must develop a credible scientific team that can critically evaluate the information generated on the subject and be able to carry bad news, if any, to the corporation,” Shaw wrote to his boss Edward E. David, the executive director of Exxon Research and Engineering in 1978. “This team must be recognized for its excellence in the scientific community, the government, and internally by Exxon management.”

Irreversible and Catastrophic

Exxon budgeted more than $1 million over three years for the tanker project to measure how quickly the oceans were taking in CO2. It was a small fraction of Exxon Research’s annual $300 million budget, but the question the scientists tackled was one of the biggest uncertainties in climate science: how quickly could the deep oceans absorb atmospheric CO2? If Exxon could pinpoint the answer, it would know how long it had before CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere could force a transition away from fossil fuels.

Exxon also hired scientists and mathematicians to develop better climate models and publish research results in peer-reviewed journals. By 1982, the company’s own scientists, collaborating with outside researchers, created rigorous climate models – computer programs that simulate the workings of the climate to assess the impact of emissions on global temperatures. They confirmed an emerging scientific consensus that warming could be even worse than Black had warned five years earlier.

Esso Atlantic

Between 1979 and 1982, Exxon researchers sampled carbon dioxide levels aboard the company’s Esso Atlantic tanker (shown here).

Exxon’s research laid the groundwork for a 1982 corporate primer on carbon dioxide and climate change prepared by its environmental affairs office. Marked “not to be distributed externally,” it contained information that “has been given wide circulation to Exxon management.” In it, the company recognized, despite the many lingering unknowns, that heading off global warming “would require major reductions in fossil fuel combustion.”

Unless that happened, “there are some potentially catastrophic events that must be considered,” the primer said, citing independent experts. “Once the effects are measurable, they might not be reversible.”

The Certainty of Uncertainty

Like others in the scientific community, Exxon researchers acknowledged the uncertainties surrounding many aspects of climate science, especially in the area of forecasting models. But they saw those uncertainties as questions they wanted to address, not an excuse to dismiss what was increasingly understood.

“Models are controversial,” Roger Cohen, head of theoretical sciences at Exxon Corporate Research Laboratories, and his colleague, Richard Werthamer, senior technology advisor at Exxon Corporation, wrote in a May 1980 status report on Exxon’s climate modeling program. “Therefore, there are research opportunities for us.”

When Exxon’s researchers confirmed information the company might find troubling, they did not sweep it under the rug.

“Over the past several years a clear scientific consensus has emerged,” Cohen wrote in September 1982, reporting on Exxon’s own analysis of climate models. It was that a doubling of the carbon dioxide blanket in the atmosphere would produce average global warming of 3 degrees Celsius, plus or minus 1.5 degrees C (equal to 5 degrees Fahrenheit plus or minus 1.7 degrees F).

“There is unanimous agreement in the scientific community that a temperature increase of this magnitude would bring about significant changes in the earth’s climate,” he wrote, “including rainfall distribution and alterations in the biosphere.”

He warned that publication of the company’s conclusions might attract media attention because of the “connection between Exxon’s major business and the role of fossil fuel combustion in contributing to the increase of atmospheric CO2.”

Nevertheless, he recommended publication.

Our “ethical responsibility is to permit the publication of our research in the scientific literature,” Cohen wrote. “Indeed, to do otherwise would be a breach of Exxon’s public position and ethical credo on honesty and integrity.”

Exxon followed his advice. Between 1983 and 1984, its researchers published their results in at least three peer-reviewed papers in Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences and an American Geophysical Union monograph.

David, the head of Exxon Research, told a global warming conference financed by Exxon in October 1982 that “few people doubt that the world has entered an energy transition away from dependence upon fossil fuels and toward some mix of renewable resources that will not pose problems of COaccumulation.” The only question, he said, was how fast this would happen.

But the challenge did not daunt him. “I’m generally upbeat about the chances of coming through this most adventurous of all human experiments with the ecosystem,” David said.

Exxon considered itself unique among corporations for its carbon dioxide and climate research.  The company boasted in a January 1981 report, “Scoping Study on CO2,” that no other company appeared to be conducting similar in-house research into carbon dioxide, and it swiftly gained a reputation among outsiders for genuine expertise.

“We are very pleased with Exxon’s research intentions related to the CO2 question. This represents very responsible action, which we hope will serve as a model for research contributions from the corporate sector,” said David Slade, manager of the federal government’s carbon dioxide research program at the Energy Department, in a May 1979 letter to Shaw. “This is truly a national and international service.”

Business Imperatives

In the early 1980s Exxon researchers often repeated that unbiased science would give it legitimacy in helping shape climate-related laws that would affect its profitability.

Still, corporate executives remained cautious about what they told Exxon’s shareholders about global warming and the role petroleum played in causing it, a review of federal filings shows. The company did not elaborate on the carbon problem in annual reports filed with securities regulators during the height of its CO2 research.

Nor did it mention in those filings that concern over CO2 was beginning to influence business decisions it was facing.

Throughout the 1980s, the company was worried about developing an enormous gas field off the coast of Indonesia because of the vast amount of CO2 the unusual reservoir would release.

Exxon was also concerned about reports that synthetic oil made from coal, tar sands and oil shales could significantly boost CO2 emissions. The company was banking on synfuels to meet growing demand for energy in the future, in a world it believed was running out of conventional oil.

In the mid-1980s, after an unexpected oil glut caused prices to collapse, Exxon cut its staff deeply to save money, including many working on climate. But the climate change problem remained, and it was becoming a more prominent part of the political landscape.

“Global Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senate,” declared the headline of a June 1988 New York Times article describing the Congressional testimony of NASA’s James Hansen, a leading climate expert. Hansen’s statements compelled Sen. Tim Wirth (D-Colo.) to declare during the hearing that “Congress must begin to consider how we are going to slow or halt that warming trend.”

With alarm bells suddenly ringing, Exxon started financing efforts to amplify doubt about the state of climate science.

Exxon helped to found and lead the Global Climate Coalition, an alliance of some of the world’s largest companies seeking to halt government efforts to curb fossil fuel emissions. Exxon used the American Petroleum Institute, right-wing think tanks, campaign contributions and its own lobbying to push a narrative that climate science was too uncertain to necessitate cuts in fossil fuel emissions.

As the international community moved in 1997 to take a first step in curbing emissions with the Kyoto Protocol, Exxon’s chairman and CEO Lee Raymond argued to stop it.

“Let’s agree there’s a lot we really don’t know about how climate will change in the 21st century and beyond,” Raymond said in his speech before the World Petroleum Congress in Beijing in October 1997.

“We need to understand the issue better, and fortunately, we have time,” he said. “It is highly unlikely that the temperature in the middle of the next century will be significantly affected whether policies are enacted now or 20 years from now.”

Over the years, several Exxon scientists who had confirmed the climate consensus during its early research, including Cohen and David, took Raymond’s side, publishing views that ran contrary to the scientific mainstream.

Paying the Price

Exxon’s about-face on climate change earned the scorn of the scientific establishment it had once courted.

In 2006, the Royal Society, the United Kingdom’s science academy, sent a harsh letter to Exxon accusing it of being “inaccurate and misleading” on the question of climate uncertainty. Bob Ward, the Academy’s senior manager for policy communication, demanded that Exxon stop giving money to dozens of organizations he said were actively distorting the science.

In 2008, under mounting pressure from activist shareholders, the company announced it would end support for some prominent groups such as those Ward had identified.

Still, the millions of dollars Exxon had spent since the 1990s on climate change deniers had long surpassed what it had once invested in its path-breaking climate science aboard the Esso Atlantic.

“They spent so much money and they were the only company that did this kind of research as far as I know,” Edward Garvey, who was a key researcher on Exxon’s oil tanker project, said in a recent interview with InsideClimate News and Frontline. “That was an opportunity not just to get a place at the table, but to lead, in many respects, some of the discussion. And the fact that they chose not to do that into the future is a sad point.”

Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University, who has been a frequent target of climate deniers, said that inaction, just like actions, have consequences. When he recently spoke to InsideClimate News, he was unaware of this chapter in Exxon’s history.

“All it would’ve taken is for one prominent fossil fuel CEO to know this was about more than just shareholder profits, and a question about our legacy,” he said. “But now because of the cost of inaction—what I call the ‘procrastination penalty’—we face a far more uphill battle.”

Part II, coming on September 17, will further examine Exxon’s early climate research.

ICN staff members Zahra Hirji, Paul Horn, Naveena Sadasivam, Sabrina Shankman and Alexander Wood also contributed to this report.