Arquivo anual: 2013

Brain Can Be Trained in Compassion, Study Shows (Science Daily)

May 22, 2013 — Until now, little was scientifically known about the human potential to cultivate compassion — the emotional state of caring for people who are suffering in a way that motivates altruistic behavior.

Investigators trained young adults to engage in compassion meditation, an ancient Buddhist technique to increase caring feelings for people who are suffering. (Credit: © byheaven / Fotolia)

A new study by researchers at the Center for Investigating Healthy Minds at the Waisman Center of the University of Wisconsin-Madison shows that adults can be trained to be more compassionate. The report, published Psychological Science, a journal of the Association for Psychological Science, investigates whether training adults in compassion can result in greater altruistic behavior and related changes in neural systems underlying compassion.

“Our fundamental question was, ‘Can compassion be trained and learned in adults? Can we become more caring if we practice that mindset?'” says Helen Weng, lead author of the study and a graduate student in clinical psychology. “Our evidence points to yes.”

In the study, the investigators trained young adults to engage in compassion meditation, an ancient Buddhist technique to increase caring feelings for people who are suffering. In the meditation, participants envisioned a time when someone has suffered and then practiced wishing that his or her suffering was relieved. They repeated phrases to help them focus on compassion such as, “May you be free from suffering. May you have joy and ease.”

Participants practiced with different categories of people, first starting with a loved one, someone whom they easily felt compassion for, like a friend or family member. Then, they practiced compassion for themselves and, then, a stranger. Finally, they practiced compassion for someone they actively had conflict with called the “difficult person,” such as a troublesome coworker or roommate.

“It’s kind of like weight training,” Weng says. “Using this systematic approach, we found that people can actually build up their compassion ‘muscle’ and respond to others’ suffering with care and a desire to help.”

Compassion training was compared to a control group that learned cognitive reappraisal, a technique where people learn to reframe their thoughts to feel less negative. Both groups listened to guided audio instructions over the Internet for 30 minutes per day for two weeks. “We wanted to investigate whether people could begin to change their emotional habits in a relatively short period of time,” says Weng.

The real test of whether compassion could be trained was to see if people would be willing to be more altruistic — even helping people they had never met. The research tested this by asking the participants to play a game in which they were given the opportunity to spend their own money to respond to someone in need (called the “Redistribution Game”). They played the game over the Internet with two anonymous players, the “Dictator” and the “Victim.” They watched as the Dictator shared an unfair amount of money (only $1 out of $10) with the Victim. They then decided how much of their own money to spend (out of $5) in order to equalize the unfair split and redistribute funds from the Dictator to the Victim.

“We found that people trained in compassion were more likely to spend their own money altruistically to help someone who was treated unfairly than those who were trained in cognitive reappraisal,” Weng says.

“We wanted to see what changed inside the brains of people who gave more to someone in need. How are they responding to suffering differently now?” asks Weng. The study measured changes in brain responses using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) before and after training. In the MRI scanner, participants viewed images depicting human suffering, such as a crying child or a burn victim, and generated feelings of compassion towards the people using their practiced skills. The control group was exposed to the same images, and asked to recast them in a more positive light as in reappraisal.

The researchers measured how much brain activity had changed from the beginning to the end of the training, and found that the people who were the most altruistic after compassion training were the ones who showed the most brain changes when viewing human suffering. They found that activity was increased in the inferior parietal cortex, a region involved in empathy and understanding others. Compassion training also increased activity in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and the extent to which it communicated with the nucleus accumbens, brain regions involved in emotion regulation and positive emotions.

“People seem to become more sensitive to other people’s suffering, but this is challenging emotionally. They learn to regulate their emotions so that they approach people’s suffering with caring and wanting to help rather than turning away,” explains Weng.

Compassion, like physical and academic skills, appears to be something that is not fixed, but rather can be enhanced with training and practice. “The fact that alterations in brain function were observed after just a total of seven hours of training is remarkable,” explains UW-Madison psychology and psychiatry professor Richard J. Davidson, founder and chair of the Center for Investigating Healthy Minds and senior author of the article.

“There are many possible applications of this type of training,” Davidson says. “Compassion and kindness training in schools can help children learn to be attuned to their own emotions as well as those of others, which may decrease bullying. Compassion training also may benefit people who have social challenges such as social anxiety or antisocial behavior.”

Weng is also excited about how compassion training can help the general population. “We studied the effects of this training with healthy participants, which demonstrated that this can help the average person. I would love for more people to access the training and try it for a week or two — what changes do they see in their own lives?”

Both compassion and reappraisal trainings are available on the Center for Investigating Healthy Minds’ website. “I think we are only scratching the surface of how compassion can transform people’s lives,” says Weng.

Other authors on the paper were Andrew S. Fox, Alexander J. Shackman, Diane E. Stodola, Jessica Z. K. Caldwell, Matthew C. Olson, and Gregory M. Rogers.

The work was supported by funds from the National Institutes of Health; a Hertz Award to the UW-Madison Department of Psychology; the Fetzer Institute; The John Templeton Foundation; the Impact Foundation; the J. W. Kluge Foundation; the Mental Insight Foundation; the Mind and Life Institute; and gifts from Bryant Wanguard, Ralph Robinson, and Keith and Arlene Bronstein.

Journal Reference:

  1. H. Y. Weng, A. S. Fox, A. J. Shackman, D. E. Stodola, J. Z. K. Caldwell, M. C. Olson, G. M. Rogers, R. J. Davidson.Compassion Training Alters Altruism and Neural Responses to SufferingPsychological Science, 2013; DOI: 10.1177/0956797612469537

“eScience revoluciona a forma como se faz ciência” (Fapesp)

Novas ferramentas de computação possibilitam fazer ciência de forma melhor, mais rápida e com maior impacto, diz Tony Hey, vice-presidente da Microsoft Research (foto:E.Cesar/FAPESP)

16/05/2013

Por Elton Alisson

Agência FAPESP – Um software de visualização de dados astronômicos pela internet permite que cientistas em diversas partes do mundo acessem milhares de imagens de objetos celestes, coletadas por grandes telescópios espaciais, por observatórios e por instituições internacionais de pesquisa em astronomia.

Por meio desses dados, os usuários podem realizar análises temporais e combinar observações realizadas em vários comprimentos de onda de energia irradiada pelos corpos celestes, como raios X, radiação infravermelha, ultravioleta e gama e ondas de rádio, para elucidar os processos físicos que ocorrem no interior desses objetos e compartilhar suas conclusões.

Denominado World Wide Telescope, o software, que começou a ser desenvolvido em 2002 pela Microsoft Research, em parceria com pesquisadores da Universidade Johns Hopkins, nos Estados Unidos, é um exemplo de como as novas tecnologias da informação e comunicação (TICs) mudaram a forma como os dados científicos passaram a ser gerados, administrados e compartilhados, além da própria maneira como se faz ciência hoje, afirma Tony Hey, vice-presidente da Microsoft Research.

“Os telescópios espaciais, assim como as máquinas de sequenciamento genético e aceleradores de partículas, estão gerando um volume de dados até então nunca visto. Para lidar com esse fenômeno e possibilitar que os cientistas possam manipular e compartilhar esses dados, precisamos de uma série de tecnologias e ferramentas de ciência da computação que possibilitem fazer ciência de forma melhor, mais rápida e com maior impacto. É isso o que chamamos deeScience”, disse Hey durante o Latin American eScience Workshop 2013, realizado nos dias 14 e 15 de maio no Espaço Apas, em São Paulo.

Promovido pela FAPESP e pela Microsoft Research, o evento reuniu pesquisadores e estudantes da Europa, da América do Sul e do Norte, da Ásia e da Oceania para discutir avanços em diversas áreas do conhecimento possibilitados pela melhoria na capacidade de análise de grandes volumes de informações produzidas por projetos de pesquisa.

A cerimônia de abertura do evento foi presidida por Celso Lafer, presidente da FAPESP, e contou com a presença de Michel Levy, presidente da Microsoft Brasil, e de José Tadeu de Faria, superintendente do Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento no Estado de São Paulo, representando o ministro.

Também conhecida como ciência orientada por dados, a área de eScience integra pesquisas em computação a estudos nas mais variadas áreas por meio do desenvolvimento de softwares específicos para visualização e análise de informações.

A integração permite a interpretação dos dados, a formulação de teorias, testes por simulação e o levantamento de novas hipóteses de pesquisa com base em correlações difíceis de serem observadas sem o apoio da tecnologia da informação.

“Algumas tecnologias utilizadas na ciência da computação vão ajudar a resolver problemas científicos. Em contrapartida, a utilização dessas ferramentas para solucionar problemas científicos também possibilitará o próprio desenvolvimento da ciência da computação”, disse Hey, que foi professor da Universidade de Southampton, no Reino Unido.

Segundo Hey, a análise, visualização, prospecção (data mining, na expressão em inglês), preservação e compartilhamento de grandes volumes de dados representam grandes desafios não só na ciência hoje, mas também no setor privado.

Por isso, na opinião dele, é preciso treinar os cientistas para lidar com o big data – como é chamado o conjunto de soluções tecnológicas capaz de lidar com a acumulação contínua de dados pouco estruturados, capturados de diversas fontes e  da ordem de petabytes (quatrilhões de bytes) – tanto para realização de projetos científicos, como também para atuarem, eventualmente, em empresas. “O data scientist [cientista capaz de lidar com grandes volumes de dados] será um requisito imprescindível para o cientista”, disse Hey.

A ciência intensiva em dados não é nova, mas as escalas espaciais e temporais de estudos realizados atualmente sobre temas relacionados às mudanças climáticas globais, por exemplo, são cada vez maiores, exigindo novas ferramentas. Por meio de novas tecnologias da informação, também é possível analisar dados gerados em tempo real, como no monitoramento de hábitats.

De acordo com Hey, desde 1950 se começou a utilizar computadores para explorar, por meio de simulações, áreas da ciência até então inacessíveis. “No início, no entanto, os cientistas não sabiam o que era ciência da computação e os profissionais da computação não entendiam a complexidade dos problemas científicos”, disse.

“Foi necessária a realização de um trabalho conjunto, de longo prazo, para que os dois lados entendessem qual era a contribuição que cada um poderia dar em suas respectivas áreas, e iniciar o desenvolvimento de novos algoritmos, hardwaresoftware e da programação de linguagens para possibilitar a realização de experimentos em diversas áreas”, contou.

Oportunidades em temas ousados

Durante o evento da FAPESP e da Microsoft Research foram apresentados diversos projetos por pesquisadores que utilizam o eScience em diversos países, em áreas como energias renováveis, mudanças climáticas globais, transformações sociais, econômicas e políticas nas metrópoles contemporâneas, caracterização, conservação, recuperação e uso sustentável da biodiversidade, medicina e saúde pública.

Um desses projetos, coordenado pela professora Glaucia Mendes Souza, coordenadora do Programa FAPESP de Pesquisa em Bioenergia (BIOEN), pretende desenvolver um algoritmo para o sequenciamento do genoma da cana-de-açúcar e, com isso, possibilitar o desenvolvimento de variedades da planta com maior quantidade de sacarose e mais resistente a pragas e às mudanças climáticas.

“A colaboração entre a FAPESP e a Microsoft tem aberto para a comunidade científica do Estado de São Paulo inúmeras oportunidades de realizar pesquisas em temas ousados relacionados com o uso de tecnologias da informação em áreas como a de energia e meio ambiente”, disse Carlos Henrique de Brito Cruz, diretor científico da FAPESP, na sessão de abertura do workshop.

“Temos grandes expectativas em relação à eScience. Se soubermos utilizá-la adequadamente, ela poderá trazer grandes avanços não só em pesquisas mas também na própria maneira de se fazer ciência”, disse Brito Cruz.

Ele disse que a FAPESP planeja lançar em breve um programa voltado para apoiar pesquisas na área de eScience.

“Temos a clara convicção de que um papel importante da FAPESP é estar na vanguarda da inovação e do conhecimento, e consideramos muito importante o apoio à pesquisas em eScience, cuja aplicação em áreas como a de meio ambiente é inequívoca, mas que também apresenta um grande potencial de utilização nas Ciências Humanas, por exemplo”, disse Celso Lafer, presidente da FAPESP.

Levy destacou a parceria da Microsoft com a FAPESP e os investimentos em pesquisa e desenvolvimento realizados pela empresa no país. “A Microsoft tem aumentado seus investimentos na área de pesquisa e desenvolvimento no Brasil nos últimos anos e um dos mais importantes exemplos disso é a parceria bem sucedida que mantemos com a FAPESP”, afirmou.

Climate research nearly unanimous on human causes, survey finds (The Guardian)

Of more than 4,000 academic papers published over 20 years, 97.1% agreed that climate change is anthropogenic

, US environment correspondent

guardian.co.uk, Thursday 16 May 2013 00.01 BST

An iceberg melts in Greeland in 2007. Climate change. Environment. Global warming. Photograph: John McConnico/AP

‘Our findings prove that there is a strong scientific agreement about the cause of climate change, despite public perceptions to the contrary’. Photograph: John McConnico/AP

A survey of thousands of peer-reviewed papers in scientific journals has found 97.1% agreed that climate change is caused by human activity.

Authors of the survey, published on Thursday in the journal Environmental Research Letters, said the finding of near unanimity provided a powerful rebuttal to climate contrarians who insist the science of climate change remains unsettled.

The survey considered the work of some 29,000 scientists published in 11,994 academic papers. Of the 4,000-plus papers that took a position on the causes of climate change only 0.7% or 83 of those thousands of academic articles, disputed the scientific consensus that climate change is the result of human activity, with the view of the remaining 2.2% unclear.

The study described the dissent as a “vanishingly small proportion” of published research.

“Our findings prove that there is a strong scientific agreement about the cause of climate change, despite public perceptions to the contrary,” said John Cook of the University of Queensland, who led the survey.

Public opinion continues to lag behind the science. Though a majority of Americans accept the climate is changing, just 42% believed human activity was the main driver, in a poll conducted by the Pew Research Centre last October.

“There is a gaping chasm between the actual consensus and the public perception,” Cook said in a statement.

Guardian partners Climate Desk interview John Cook on his new paper

The study blamed strenuous lobbying efforts by industry to undermine the science behind climate change for the gap in perception. The resulting confusion has blocked efforts to act on climate change.

The survey was the most ambitious effort to date to demonstrate the broad agreement on the causes of climate change, covering 20 years of academic publications from 1991-2011.

In 2004, Naomi Oreskes, an historian at the University of California, San Diego,surveyed published literature, releasing her results in the journal Science. She too came up with a similar finding that 97% of climate scientists agreed on the causes of climate change.

She wrote of the new survey in an email: “It is a nice, independent confirmation, using a somewhat different methodology than I used, that comes to the same result. It also refutes the claim, sometimes made by contrarians, that the consensus has broken down, much less ‘shattered’.”

The Cook survey was broader in its scope, deploying volunteers from theSkepticalScience.com website to review scientific abstracts. The volunteers also asked authors to rate their own views on the causes of climate change, in another departure from Oreskes’s methods.

The authors said the findings could help close the gap between scientific opinion and the public on the causes of climate change, or anthropogenic global warming, and so create favourable conditions for political action on climate.

“The public perception of a scientific consensus on AGW [anthropogenic, ie man-made, global warming] is a necessary element in public support for climate policy,” the study said.

However, Prof Robert Brulle, a sociologist at Drexel University who studies the forces underlying attitudes towards climate change, disputed the idea that educating the public about the broad scientific agreement on the causes of climate change would have an effect on public opinion – or on the political conditions for climate action.

He said he was doubtful that convincing the public of a scientific consensus on climate change would help advance the prospects for political action. Having elite leaders call for climate action would be far more powerful, he said.

“I don’t think people really want to come around to grips with the fact that climate change is a highly ideological issue and it is not amenable to the information deficit model,” he said.

“The information deficit model, this idea that if you just pile on more information people will get convinced, is just completely inadequate, he said. “It strengthens the people who actually read and pay attention but it is certainly not going to change or shift the opinions of others.”

Jon Krosnick, professor in humanities and social sciences at Stanford university and an expert on public opinion on climate change, said: “I assume that sceptics would say that there is bias in the editorial process so that the papers ultimately published are not an accurate reflection of the opinions of scientists.”

Tamed fox shows domestication’s effects on the brain (Science News)

Gene activity changes accompany doglike behavior

By Tina Hesman Saey

Web edition: May 15, 2013

download

Taming silver foxes (shown) alters their behavior. A new study links those behavior changes to changes in brain chemicals. Tom Reichner/Shutterstock

COLD SPRING HARBOR, N.Y. – Taming foxes changes not only the animals’ behavior but also their brain chemistry, a new study shows.

The finding could shed light on how the foxes’ genetic cousins, wolves, morphed into man’s best friend. Lenore Pipes of Cornell University presented the results May 10 at the Biology of Genomes conference.

The foxes she worked with come from a long line started in 1959 when a Russian scientist named Dmitry Belyaev attempted to recreate dog domestication, but using foxes instead of wolves. He bred silver foxes (Vulpes vulpes), which are actually a type of red fox with white-tipped black fur. Belyaev and his colleagues selected the least aggressive animals they could find at local fox farms and bred them. Each generation, the scientists picked the tamest animals to mate, creating ever friendlier foxes. Now, more than 50 years later, the foxes act like dogs, wagging their tails, jumping with excitement and leaping into the arms of caregivers for caresses.

At the same time, the scientists also bred the most aggressive foxes on the farms. The descendents of those foxes crouch, flatten their ears, growl, bare their teeth and lunge at people who approach their cages.

The foxes’ tame and aggressive behaviors are rooted in genetics, but scientists have not found DNA changes that account for the differences. Rather than search for changes in genes themselves, Pipes and her colleagues took an indirect approach, looking for differences in the activity of genes in the foxes’ brains.

The team collected two brain parts, the prefrontal cortex and amygdala, from a dozen aggressive foxes and a dozen tame ones. The prefrontal cortex, an area at the front of the brain, is involved in decision making and in controlling social behavior, among other tasks. The amygdala, a pair of almond-size regions on either side of the brain, helps process emotional information.

Pipes found that the activity of hundreds of genes in the two brain regions differed between the groups of affable and hostile foxes. For example, aggressive animals had increased activity of some genes for sensing dopamine. Pipes speculated that tame animals’ lower levels of dopamine sensors might make them less anxious.

The team had expected to find changes in many genes involved in serotonin signaling, a process targeted by some popular antidepressants such as Prozac. Tame foxes are known to have more serotonin in their brains. But only one gene for sensing serotonin had higher activity in the friendly animals.

In a different sort of analysis, Pipes discovered that all aggressive foxes carry one form of the GRM3 glutamate receptor gene, while a majority of the friendly foxes have a different variant of the gene. In people, genetic variants of GRM3 have been linked to schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and other mood disorders. Other genes involved in transmitting glutamate signals, which help regulate mood, had increased activity in tame foxes, Pipes said.

It is not clear whether similar brain chemical changes accompanied the transformation of wolves into dogs, said Adam Freedman, an evolutionary biologist at Harvard University. Even if dogs and wolves now have differing brain chemical levels, researchers can’t turn back time to watch the process unfold; they can only guess at how domestication happened. “We have to reconstruct an unobservable series of steps,” he said. Pipes’ study is an interesting example of what might have happened to dogs’ brains during domestication, he said.

Clouds in the Head: New Model of Brain’s Thought Processes (Science Daily)

May 21, 2013 — A new model of the brain’s thought processes explains the apparently chaotic activity patterns of individual neurons. They do not correspond to a simple stimulus/response linkage, but arise from the networking of different neural circuits. Scientists funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) propose that the field of brain research should expand its focus.

A new model of the brain’s thought processes explains the apparently chaotic activity patterns of individual neurons. They do not correspond to a simple stimulus/response linkage, but arise from the networking of different neural circuits. (Credit: iStockphoto/Sebastian Kaulitzki)

Many brain researchers cannot see the forest for the trees. When they use electrodes to record the activity patterns of individual neurons, the patterns often appear chaotic and difficult to interpret. “But when you zoom out from looking at individual cells, and observe a large number of neurons instead, their global activity is very informative,” says Mattia Rigotti, a scientist at Columbia University and New York University who is supported by the SNSF and the Janggen-Pöhn-Stiftung. Publishing inNature together with colleagues from the United States, he has shown that these difficult-to-interpret patterns in particular are especially important for complex brain functions.

What goes on in the heads of apes

The researchers have focussed their attention on the activity patterns of 237 neurons that had been recorded some years previously using electrodes implanted in the frontal lobes of two rhesus monkeys. At that time, the apes had been taught to recognise images of different objects on a screen. Around one third of the observed neurons demonstrated activity that Rigotti describes as “mixed selectivity.” A mixed selective neuron does not always respond to the same stimulus (the flowers or the sailing boat on the screen) in the same way. Rather, its response differs as it also takes account of the activity of other neurons. The cell adapts its response according to what else is going on in the ape’s brain.

Chaotic patterns revealed in context

Just as individual computers are networked to create concentrated processing and storage capacity in the field of Cloud Computing, links in the complex cognitive processes that take place in the prefrontal cortex play a key role. The greater the density of the network in the brain, in other words the greater the proportion of mixed selectivity in the activity patterns of the neurons, the better the apes were able to recall the images on the screen, as demonstrated by Rigotti in his analysis. Given that the brain and cognitive capabilities of rhesus monkeys are similar to those of humans, mixed selective neurons should also be important in our own brains. For him this is reason enough why brain research from now on should no longer be satisfied with just the simple activity patterns, but should also consider the apparently chaotic patterns that can only be revealed in context.

Journal Reference:

  1. Mattia Rigotti, Omri Barak, Melissa R. Warden, Xiao-Jing Wang, Nathaniel D. Daw, Earl K. Miller, Stefano Fusi. The importance of mixed selectivity in complex cognitive tasksNature, 2013; DOI: 10.1038/nature12160

Pescador que atirou em boto diz que quase foi encantado e fica perturbado (Voz do Norte)

homem boto

Depois de atirar num boto que estava perturbando sua pescaria Valdecir da Costa Souza, 20, passou a apresentar perturbações psicológicas e afirma que os animais estão o atraindo. Além de ouvir vozes ele vê um homem sentado numa pedra no rio tentando levá-lo para a água e o problema está preocupando os familiares.

Tudo começou quando Valdecir participava de uma pescaria junto com o primo Natanael dos Santos, em uma comunidade do interior do Amazonas e alguns botos rasgavam as redes e comiam o peixe, momento que o pescador resolveu dar um tiro num dos animais.

Segundo conta o primo, imediatamente após o tiro, surgiram vários botos ao redor do barco que tentaram alagar a embarcação e eles não conseguiram continuar a pescaria. Mesmo depois do barco ter sido ancorado nas margens do rio os animais não foram embora, momento em que Valdecir começou a passar mal.

“Comecei a passar mal e apareceu um homem em cima de uma pedra branca no meio do rio que tentava levá-lo para a água. Ele me chamava e dizia que ai me levar”, contou o pescador ainda abatido, que no momento pedia socorro ao primo que afirmou que eram muitos botos e quando eles apareciam Valdecir começava a passar mal.

“Quando eu ficava perto do meu primo, que estava comigo na pescaria, eles se afastavam e o homem desaparecia”, conta ainda assustado em sua residência. Depois que chegou em casa o pescador deu muito trabalho a família que tinha que segurá-lo a força pois ele queria entrar no rio.

Segundo a tia do pescador, Lúcia dos Santos, todas as vezes que Valdecir sentia a presença dos botos ficava com a voz diferente e com muita força. “Não sei o que acontecia, ele começava a desmaiar depois queria entrar no rio. Eram nove homens e três mulheres para poder segurá-lo”, afirmou.

O pai pescador, José Alberto de Souza, 62, conta que também já foi vitima de um boto, quando estava com amigos madeireiros nas margens de um igarapé na fronteira com o Peru. Eles jogavam baralho quando sentiu algo estranho no corpo e via um homem sobre uma pedra no igarapé que tentava levá-lo para a água.

José Alberto afirma que tudo começou depois que seu pai desapareceu nas águas do Rio Juruá, encantado por um boto. “Meu estava numa canoa que naufragou e vários botos começaram a boiar no local, ele nunca foi encontrado. Depois ele apareceu para minha esposa dizendo que estava em um boto e que eu precisava desencantá-lo. Ela me disse antes mesmo dele aparecer três vezes, depois disso nunca mais voltou”, ressaltou.

[Acessado em 23 de maio de 2013]

Political Motivations May Have Evolutionary Links to Physical Strength (Science Daily)

May 15, 2013 — Men’s upper-body strength predicts their political opinions on economic redistribution, according to new research published inPsychological Science, a journal of the Association for Psychological Science.

The principal investigators of the research — psychological scientists Michael Bang Petersen of Aarhus University, Denmark and Daniel Sznycer of University of California, Santa Barbara — believe that the link may reflect psychological traits that evolved in response to our early ancestral environments and continue to influence behavior today.

“While many think of politics as a modern phenomenon, it has — in a sense — always been with our species,” says Petersen.

In the days of our early ancestors, decisions about the distribution of resources weren’t made in courthouses or legislative offices, but through shows of strength. With this in mind, Petersen, Sznycer and colleagues hypothesized that upper-body strength — a proxy for the ability to physically defend or acquire resources — would predict men’s opinions about the redistribution of wealth.

The researchers collected data on bicep size, socioeconomic status, and support for economic redistribution from hundreds of people in the United States, Argentina, and Denmark.

In line with their hypotheses, the data revealed that wealthy men with high upper-body strength were less likely to support redistribution, while less wealthy men of the same strength were more likely to support it.

“Despite the fact that the United States, Denmark and Argentina have very different welfare systems, we still see that — at the psychological level — individuals reason about welfare redistribution in the same way,” says Petersen. “In all three countries, physically strong males consistently pursue the self-interested position on redistribution.”

Men with low upper-body strength, on the other hand, were less likely to support their own self-interest. Wealthy men of this group showed less resistance to redistribution, while poor men showed less support.

“Our results demonstrate that physically weak males are more reluctant than physically strong males to assert their self-interest — just as if disputes over national policies were a matter of direct physical confrontation among small numbers of individuals, rather than abstract electoral dynamics among millions,” says Petersen.

Interestingly, the researchers found no link between upper-body strength and redistribution opinions among women. Petersen argues that this is likely due to the fact that, over the course of evolutionary history, women had less to gain, and also more to lose, from engaging in direct physical aggression.

Together, the results indicate that an evolutionary perspective may help to illuminate political motivations, at least those of men.

“Many previous studies have shown that people’s political views cannot be predicted by standard economic models,” Petersen explains. “This is among the first studies to show that political views may be rational in another sense, in that they’re designed by natural selection to function in the conditions recurrent over human evolutionary history.”

Co-authors on this research include Aaron Sell, Leda Cosmides, and John Tooby of the University of California, Santa Barbara.

This research was supported by a grant from the Danish Research Council and a Director’s Pioneer Award from the National Institutes of Health.

Journal Reference:

  1. M. B. Petersen, D. Sznycer, A. Sell, L. Cosmides, J. Tooby. The Ancestral Logic of Politics: Upper-Body Strength Regulates Men’s Assertion of Self-Interest Over Economic RedistributionPsychological Science, 2013; DOI: 10.1177/0956797612466415

“It’s happening now… The village is sinking” (The Guardian)

Residents of Newtok, Alaska, know they must evacuate, but who will pay the $130m cost of moving them?

› Children jump over ground affected by erosion in Newtok. Natural erosion has accelerated due to climate change, with large areas of land lost to the Ninglick River each year. Photograph: Brian Adams

Suzanne Goldenberg in Newtok, Alaska, with video by Richard Sprenger

One afternoon in the waning days of winter, the most powerful man in Newtok, Alaska, hopped on a plane and flew 1,000 miles to plead for the survival of his village. Stanley Tom, Newtok’s administrator, had a clear purpose for his trip: find the money to move the village on the shores of the Bering Sea out of the way of an approaching disaster caused by climate change.

Village administrator Stanley Tom stands at Mertarvik, the site of relocated Newtok. Photograph: Brian Adams Photography

Newtok was rapidly losing ground to erosion. The land beneath the village was falling into the river. Tom needed money for bulldozers to begin preparing a new site for the village on higher ground. He needed funds for an airstrip, He came back from his meetings in Juneau, the Alaskan state capital, with expressions of sympathy – but nothing in the way of the cash he desperately needed. “It’s really complicated,” he said. “There are a lot of obstacles.”

Those obstacles – financial, legal and a supremely frustrating bureaucratic process – had slowed down the move for so long that some in Newtok, which is about 400 miles south of the Bering Strait that separates the US from Russia, feared they would be stuck as the village went down around them, houses swallowed up by the river.

“It’s really alarming,” said Tom, slumped in an armchair a few hours after his return to the village. “I have a hard time sleeping, and I’m getting up early in the morning. I am worried about it every day.”

The uncertainty was tearing the village apart. It also began to turn the village against Tom.

Over the winter, a large group of villagers decided that their administrator was not up to the job. By the time he returned from this particular trip, the dissidents had voted to replace the village council and to sack Tom – a vote that he ignored.

“The way I see it, we need someone who knows how to do the work,” said Katherine Charles, one of Tom’s most vocal critics. “I feel like we are being neglected. We are still standing here and we don’t know when we are going to move. For years now we have been frustrated. I have to ask myself: why are we even still here?”

It’s been more than a decade since Tom took charge of running Newtok, and leading the village out of climate disaster to higher ground.

The ground beneath Newtok is disappearing. Natural erosion has accelerated due to climate change, with large areas of land lost to the Ninglick river each year. A study by the Army Corps of Engineers found the highest point in the village would be below water level by 2017. The proximity of the threat to Newtok means that its villages are likely to be America’s first climate refugees.

Officials in Anchorage say Tom has worked tirelessly to move the village out of the way of a rampaging river. Among the relatively small circle of bureaucrats and lawyers who concern themselves with the problems of small and remote indigenous Alaskan villages, the Newtok administrator has a stellar reputation. He has won leadership awards from Native American groups in the rest of the country.

Tom said he hoped to make a big push this summer, acquiring heavy equipment that locals could use to begin moving some of the existing houses over to the new village site at Mertarvik nine miles to the south.

“It’s really happening right now. The village is sinking and flooding and eroding,” he said. He said he was planning to move his own belongings to the new village site this summer – and that villagers should start doing the same.

But Tom, despite his lobbying missions to Juneau and strong reputation with government officials, has failed to inject federal and state officials with that same sense of urgency.

Melting permafrost, sea-level rise, erosion – these are some of the worst consequences of climate change for Alaska. But none of those elements in Newtok’s slow destruction are recognised as disasters under existing legislation.

That means there is no designated pot of money set aside for those affected communities – unlike cities or towns destroyed by floods or tornados.

We weren’t thinking of climate change when federal disaster relief legislation was passed.

Robin Bronen, a human rights lawyer in Anchorage. ‘This is completely a human rights issue’ Photograph: Richard Sprenger

“We weren’t thinking of climate change when federal disaster relief legislation was passed,” said Robin Bronen, a human rights lawyer in Anchorage who has made a dozen visits to Newtok. “Our legal system is not set up. The institutions that we have created to respond to disasters are not up to the task of responding to climate change.”

In Bronen’s view, Congress needed to rewrite existing disaster legislation to take account of climate change. Communities needed to be able to access those disaster funds — if not to rebuild in place, which is not feasible in Newtok’s case, then to move.

The authorities also had responsibility under the treaty agreements with indigenous Alaskan tribes to guarantee the safety and wellbeing of indigenous communities, she argued.

“This is completely a human rights issue,” Bronen said. “When you are talking about a people who have done the least to contribute to our climate crisis facing such dramatic consequences as a result of climate change, we have a moral and legal responsibility to respond and provide the funding needed so that these communities are not in danger.”

Until then, however, it was up to Tom to find new ways to prise funds out of an unresponsive bureaucracy. It turned out that he had a knack for it.

Government officials praised Tom for finding other sources of funds, such as development grants, and putting them to use for building the new village site. But it has been a laborious process for the remote village to find its way through the different funding agencies and a maze of competing regulations.

As Tom found out, each agency had its own set of rules. The state government would not build a school for fewer than 10 children. The federal government would not build an airstrip at a village without a post office. But the rules, from Newtok’s vantage point, appeared to have at least one point in common. They seemed to conspire against the village ever getting its move off the ground.

In 2011, Alaska’s government published a timetable for Newtok’s move, setting out dates for building an emergency centre, housing, an airstrip – all items on Tom’s list. Two years later, the plan is already behind schedule and the official who oversaw that original timetable said there was little chance of getting back on track.

Newtok is something that is probably going to play out over several decades unless it reaches a dire point where something has to be done immediately to keep the people safe

Larry Hartig, who heads Alaska’s Department of Environmental Conservation

“Newtok is something that is probably going to play out over several decades unless it reaches a dire point where something has to be done immediately to keep the people safe,” said Larry Hartig, who heads Alaska’s Department of Environmental Conservation.

Officially, the government of Alaska remains committed to helping Newtok and all the other indigenous Alaskan villages that are threatened by climate change.

Almost all of Alaska’s indigenous villages – more than 180 – are experiencing the effects of climate change, including severe flooding and erosion. Some may be able to hold back rivers and sea, but others will have to move. About half a dozen villages, including Newtok, face extreme risks.

A mosaic of sea ice shifts across the Bering Sea, west of Alaska on 5 February, 2008. On either side of the Bering Strait (top centre) the land is blanketed with snow. Anchorage is located in the middle right-hand side of the image, at the top of the Cook Inlet. The village of Newtok is located north of Nunivak Island (middle), close to the coast on the lowland plain of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, one of the largest river deltas in the world, which mostly consists of tundra. Photograph: NASA/Aqua/MODIS

“I am not going to tell any community that they are not going to survive. If the residents want to survive, we will help them,” said Mead Treadwell, the state’s lieutenant governor.

But the cost of relocating just one village — Newtok — could run as high as $130m, according to an estimate by the Army Corps of Engineers. That’s more than $350,000 per villager. Multiply that by half a dozen, or several more times, and the cost of protecting indigenous Alaskan villages from climate change soon soars into the billions.

So far, Newtok has received a total of about $12m in state funds over the past four years, according to George Owletuck, a consultant hired by Tom to help with the move. Much of that has already gone, to build a barge landing, a few new homes, and an emergency evacuation centre – in case the village does not manage to move in time.

Officially, federal and state government agencies have spent some $27m getting Mertarvik ready, although a considerable share of that figure, some $6m, did not go directly to the relocation, said Sally Russell Cox, the state official overseeing the move. And there is still no major infrastructure completed at Mertarvik.

Would the government of Alaska commit to picking up the rest of the tab for Newtok and the other villages?

Alaska’s oil revenues have fallen off over the years. In 2012, the state slipped into second place for oil production behind North Dakota. Treadwell admitted the state government would not cover the entire cost of fortifying or moving all of the villages threatened by climate change.

“On the question of is there money to help them with one cheque? That is something there clearly is not,” he said.

Treadwell suggested some of the at-risk villages could raise funds by setting themselves up as hubs for oil companies hoping to drill in Arctic waters.

However, a number of oil companies have put their Arctic drilling plans on hold for 2013 and 2014. Treadwell admitted there was as yet no comprehensive climate change plan for Newtok and other villages. “I think it’s going to be piece by piece with each community and many different pots of money,” he said.

In the case of Newtok, Owletuck, the consultant, had big ideas for financing the move: growing fruit and vegetables hydroponically in green houses, or testing the possibilities of producing biofuels from algae.

He let it be known the village may even have found a mysterious benefactor. Owletuck said he’d had an approach from private individuals, whom he declined to name, wanting to donate $22m to the move.

None of those propositions have materialised, however. And after more than a decade of uncertainty about the future under climate change, the basic infrastructure of Newtok is coming apart.

The impact on Newtok

The rising sea due to erosion and climate change has dramatically altered Newtok Village and by 2027 is expected to cover nearly a third of the village. Historic shorelines digitized from USGS topographic maps and aerial photos. Source: Army Corps of Engineers

Snow covers up a lot of Newtok’s flaws: the open sewage pits, the broken board walk over mudflats, some of the abandoned snowmobile wrecks.

Newtok has for years been considered a “distressed village”, with average income of $16,000, well below the rest of the state. Fewer than half of adults in the village have paid work. But even within those dismal measures, conditions have sharply deteriorated in the years since the village has been planning to move.

Aside from the clinic and the school, most buildings are in a state of advanced dilapidation. The floor in the community hall sags like an old mattress. The community laundry is out of order.

In the cramped offices of the traditional council, where Tom works, the furniture dates from the 1970s or 1980s, mid-brown vinyl chairs where the casing has split open, revealing the dirty foam inside. It’s not unheard of to find families of 10 or 12 children living in houses of less than 800 sq ft – and none of those homes have flush toilets or running water.

Early mornings find the men of the household trudging out of their homes with 5 gallon buckets of waste, which get dumped at various spots on the edges of the village, including a small stream.

The diesel-powered generator was nearing the end of its life span. The water treatment plant was shut down last October after people began getting sick. Tom said there was contamination from leaking jet fuel at the airport.

For now, villagers are drawing water from the school, which had a separate system. But the school principal said he would have to cut that off in May to preserve the system for the schoolchildren.

Tom said there was nothing he could do. Government agencies would not fund improvements at the current village site, because of the plan to move. “There is no money to improve our community,” he said. “We are suspended from federal and state agencies and there is no way of improving our lives over here. The agencies do not want to work on both villages at once.”

By last October, frustration with the stalled move and conditions in the village exploded. Villagers accused their own council of failing to hold regular elections, and raised a petition to throw out the leaders and replace Tom.

Some accused him of presiding over a dictatorship in the village. Others speculated that he and the paid consultant, Oweituck, were plotting to rob the relocation funds.

One of the dissidents, a relative newcomer to the village, posted ferocious criticism of Tom on Facebook calling for rebellion.

The dissidents organised elections, voted out the old council and installed their own leaders. Tom ignored the result. “Let them cry all they want,” he said. “I don’t care. They are not going to help my community. I am way ahead of these guys.”

The upheavals in Newtok are sadly familiar to those who have worked with indigenous Alaskan villages confronting climate change. “I don’t think you would find one community that says they are happy with the pace that’s gone on,” said Patricia Cochran, director of the Alaska Native Science Commission.

“To be honest with you, I think the state and the feds have done a terrible job, not only in assessing the conditions that communities are living within but in responding to them,” she said. “Because these communities are listed as threatened and may potentially be relocated, they are not able to get any funds now for infrastructure that is being damaged right now.”

That leaves communities stuck in a limbo that can carry for years or even decades.

That’s what has become of Newtok. The effects are devastating, said Charles. Beyond all her anger she admitted was an all-enveloping fear. “Sometimes I get scared. I’m scared for my own family. How will I take care of them if the relocation doesn’t start right away?”

She had been waiting for years to see the beginnings of any new settlement in rural Alaska rising up on the rocky hill of Mertarvik: the airport, the barge landing, the school, the houses. None of it was there yet, and Charles said she was coming close to despair.

“It’s been going on for I don’t know how long, and I am beginning to lose hope.”

For Insurers, No Doubts on Climate Change (N.Y.Times)

Master Sgt. Mark Olsen/U.S. Air Force, via Associated Press. Damage in Mantoloking, N.J., after Hurricane Sandy. Natural disasters caused $35 billion in private property losses last year.

By EDUARDO PORTER

Published: May 14, 2013

If there were one American industry that would be particularly worried about climate change it would have to be insurance, right?

From Hurricane Sandy’s devastating blow to the Northeast to the protracted drought that hit the Midwest Corn Belt, natural catastrophes across the United States pounded insurers last year, generating$35 billion in privately insured property losses, $11 billion more than the average over the last decade.

And the industry expects the situation will get worse. “Numerous studies assume a rise in summer drought periods in North America in the future and an increasing probability of severe cyclones relatively far north along the U.S. East Coast in the long term,” said Peter Höppe, who heads Geo Risks Research at the reinsurance giant Munich Re. “The rise in sea level caused by climate change will further increase the risk of storm surge.” Most insurers, including the reinsurance companies that bear much of the ultimate risk in the industry, have little time for the arguments heard in some right-wing circles that climate change isn’t happening, and are quite comfortable with the scientific consensus that burning fossil fuels is the main culprit of global warming.

“Insurance is heavily dependent on scientific thought,” Frank Nutter, president of the Reinsurance Association of America, told me last week. “It is not as amenable to politicized scientific thought.”

Yet when I asked Mr. Nutter what the American insurance industry was doing to combat global warming, his answer was surprising: nothing much. “The industry has really not been engaged in advocacy related to carbon taxes or proposals addressing carbon,” he said. While some big European reinsurers like Munich Re and Swiss Re support efforts to reduce CO2 emissions, “in the United States the household names really have not engaged at all.” Instead, the focus of insurers’ advocacy efforts is zoning rules and disaster mitigation.

Last week, scientists announced that the concentration of heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the atmosphere had reached 400 parts per million — its highest level in at least three million years, before humans appeared on the scene. Back then, mastodons roamed the earth, the polar ice caps were smaller and the sea level was as much as 60 to 80 feet higher.

The milestone puts the earth nearer a point of no return, many scientists think, when vast, disruptive climate change is baked into our future. Pietr P. Tans, who runs the monitoring program at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told my colleague Justin Gillis: “It symbolizes that so far we have failed miserably in tackling this problem.” And it raises a perplexing question: why hasn’t corporate America done more to sway its allies in the Republican Party to try to avert a disaster that would clearly be devastating to its own interests?

Mr. Nutter argues that the insurance industry’s reluctance is born of hesitation to become embroiled in controversies over energy policy. But perhaps its executives simply don’t feel so vulnerable. Like farmers, who are largely protected from the ravages of climate change by government-financed crop insurance, insurers also have less to fear than it might at first appear.

The federal government covers flood insurance, among the riskiest kind in this time of crazy weather. And insurers can raise premiums or even drop coverage to adjust to higher risks. Indeed, despite Sandy and drought, property and casualty insurance in the United States was more profitable in 2012 than in 2011, according to the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America.

But the industry’s analysis of the risks it faces is evolving. One sign of that is how some top American insurers responded to a billboard taken out by the conservative Heartland Institute, a prominent climate change denier that has received support from the insurance industry.

The billboard had a picture of Theodore Kaczynski, the Unabomber, who asked: “I still believe in global warming. Do you?”

Concerned about global warming and angry to be equated with a murderous psychopath, insurance companies like Allied World, Renaissance Re, State Farm and XL Groupdropped their support for Heartland.

Even more telling, Eli Lehrer, a Heartland vice president who at the time led an insurance-financed project, left the group and helped start the R Street Institute, a standard conservative organization in all respects but one: it believes in climate change and supports a carbon tax to combat it. And it is financed largely with insurance industry money.

Mr. Lehrer points out that a carbon tax fits conservative orthodoxy. It is a broad and flat tax, whose revenue can be used to do away with the corporate income tax — a favorite target of the right. It provides a market-friendly signal, forcing polluters to bear the cost imposed on the rest of us and encouraging them to pollute less. And it is much preferable to a parade of new regulations from the Environmental Protection Agency.

“We are having a debate on the right about a carbon tax for the first time in a long time,” Mr. Lehrer said.

Bob Inglis, formerly a Republican congressman from South Carolina who lost his seat in the 2010 primary to a Tea Party-supported challenger, is another member of this budding coalition. Before he left Congress, he proposed a revenue-neutral bill to create a carbon tax and cut payroll taxes.

Changing the political economy of a carbon tax remains an uphill slog especially in a stagnant economy. But Mr. Inglis notices a thaw. “The best way to do this is in the context of a grand bargain on tax reform,” he said. “It could happen in 2015 or 2016, but probably not before.”

He lists a dozen Republicans in the House and eight in the Senate who would be open to legislation to help avert climate change. He notes that Exelon, the gas and electricity giant, is sympathetic to his efforts — perhaps not least because a carbon tax would give an edge to gas over its dirtier rival, coal. Exxon, too, has also said a carbon tax would be the most effective way to reduce emissions. So why hasn’t the insurance industry come on board?

Robert Muir-Wood is the chief research officer of Risk Management Solutions, one of two main companies the insurance industry relies on to crunch data and model future risks. He argues that insurers haven’t changed their tune because — with the exception of 2004 and 2005, when a string of hurricanes from Ivan to Katrina caused damage worth more than $200 billion — they haven’t yet experienced hefty, sustained losses attributable to climate change.

“Insurers were ready to sign up to all sorts of actions against climate change,” Mr. Muir-Wood told me from his office in London. Then the weather calmed down.

Still, Mr. Muir-Wood notes that the insurance industry faces a different sort of risk: political action. “That is the biggest threat,” he said. When insurers canceled policies and raised premiums in Florida in 2006, politicians jumped on them. “Insurers in Florida,” he said, “became Public Enemy No. 1.”

And that’s the best hope for those concerned about climate change: that global warming isn’t just devastating for society, but also bad for business.

‘Não existem índios no Brasil’, diz escritor em abertura de congresso (G1)

22/05/2013 14h24 – Atualizado em 22/05/2013 14h40

Para ele, a palavra ‘índio’ surgiu de maneira equivocada e reduz os povos.

Autor de 43 livros, Daniel Munduruku abriu o evento em Poços de Caldas. 

Jéssica BalbinoDo G1 Sul de Minas

Daniel Munduruku é autor de 43 livros e falou durante abertura de Congresso (Foto: Jéssica Balbino/ G1)Daniel Munduruku é autor de 43 livros e falou durante abertura de Congresso (Foto: Jéssica Balbino/ G1)

Autor de 43 livros, o indígena Daniel Munduruku foi o palestrante convidado para a abertura do 10º Congresso do Meio Ambiente em Poços de Caldas (MG) nesta quarta-feira (22). O índio, que é doutor em educação e cursa pós-doutorado em literatura na Universidade Federal de São Carlos (Ufscar), falou sobre a ‘Mãe Terra e a Questão Indígena’  durante um bate-papo com os congressistas.

Em uma saudação na língua do povo ao qual pertence, abriu a fala e brincando, pediu licença a quem estava no ambiente. “Bom dia a todos os amigos aqui presentes, espero que este encontro seja tão bom para vocês como vai ser para mim”, saudou, em uma referência aos ancestrais. “Nossos avós diziam que quando vamos encontrar alguém, temos que ir com o coração aberto e alegre para que o encontro seja bom, desejando que as pessoas que estão no lugar se sintam da mesma forma”, pontuou, ao lembrar que estar conectado com o meio ambiente é estar conectado com a poesia do universo.

“A luta pelo meio ambiente é a luta de todo povo brasileiro” – Daniel Munduruku, escritor e doutor

“Vou falar de outras tantas coisas que não são meio ambiente, mas também são. Quero olhar nos olhos e conversar. Para começar, vou destacar que não sou índio e que não existem índios no Brasil. O que existem são povos. Eu sou Munduruku e pertencer a um povo é ter participação dentro de uma tradição ancestral brasileira. Quando eu digo que não existem índios, quero dizer que existe uma diversidade muito grande de ancestralidade. São pelo menos 250 povos indígenas e são faladas pelo menos 180 línguas no Brasil”, disse.

Para ele, a palavra ‘índio’ surgiu de maneira equivocada e reduz os povos. “Está ligada a uma série de conceitos e pré-conceitos. Normalmente ela está vinculada a coisas negativas, embora haja muito romantismo na história, a maioria do pensamento quer dizer que o  índio é um ser fora de moda, atrasado no tempo e selvagem. Alguém que está atrapalhando o progresso e continuamos reproduzindo um estereótipo que foi sendo passado ao longo da nossa história”, criticou.”

Público vindo de várias partes do Brasil debateu durante palestra (Foto: Jéssica Balbino/ G1)Público vindo de várias partes do Brasil debateu
durante palestra (Foto: Jéssica Balbino/ G1)

O bate-papo foi permeado por lembranças do indígena, que contou histórias sobre a própria vida, a fase de transição entre infância e adolescência e a perda do avô, que segundo ele, na tradição Munduruku, é quem transmite os ensinamentos dentro de uma família ou tribo. Com isso, ele chegou à dúvida dos presentes que era: como começou a escrever e se tornou acadêmico. “Quando meu avô morreu, me fez entender o que era ser Munduruku e eu sempre quis lembrar dele assim. Queria ser como ele, um contador de histórias. Demorei para saber como seria meu caminho, se seria na tribo ou na cidade, mas optei pela cidade e pela vida acadêmica e hoje estou aqui,  transmitindo estas histórias que são tão cheias de sabedoria de vida e de meio ambiente”, pontuou.

Em relação ao meio ambiente e aos questionamentos feitos pelo público, o indígena destacou a questão da evolução humana e no Brasil a construção de barragens. “O povo Munduruku está sofrendo com a construção das barragens, seja em Belomonte, seja em Rondônia, enfim, eles estão lutando para viver. A natureza e o ambiente que os índios vivem fazem parte da humanidade deles. Eles lutam para se manterem e lutam por um Brasil inteiro que não tem a consciência de perceber isso. A luta pelo meio ambiente é a luta de todo povo brasileiro”, finalizou.

Origins of human culture linked to rapid climate change (Cardiff University)

21-May-2013

By Ian Hall

Rapid climate change during the Middle Stone Age, between 80,000 and 40,000 years ago, during the Middle Stone Age, sparked surges in cultural innovation in early modern human populations, according to new research.

The research, published this month in Nature Communications, was conducted by a team of scientists from Cardiff University’s School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, the Natural History Museum in London and the University of Barcelona.

The scientists studied a marine sediment core off the coast of South Africa and reconstructed terrestrial climate variability over the last 100,000 years.

Dr Martin Ziegler, Cardiff University School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, said: “We found that South Africa experienced rapid climate transitions toward wetter conditions at times when the Northern Hemisphere experienced extremely cold conditions.”

These large Northern Hemisphere cooling events have previously been linked to a change in the Atlantic Ocean circulation that led to a reduced transport of warm water to the high latitudes in the North. In response to this Northern Hemisphere cooling, large parts of the sub-Saharan Africa experienced very dry conditions.

“Our new data however, contrasts with sub-Saharan Africa and demonstrates that the South African climate responded in the opposite direction, with increasing rainfall, that can be associated with a globally occurring southward shift of the tropical monsoon belt.”

Linking climate change with human evolution

Professor Ian Hall, Cardiff University School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, said: “When the timing of these rapidly occurring wet pulses was compared with the archaeological datasets, we found remarkable coincidences.

“The occurrence of several major Middle Stone Age industries fell tightly together with the onset of periods with increased rainfall.”

“Similarly, the disappearance of the industries appears to coincide with the transition to drier climatic conditions.”

Professor Chris Stringer of London’s Natural History Museum commented “The correspondence between climatic ameliorations and cultural innovations supports the view that population growth fuelled cultural changes, through increased human interactions.”

The South African archaeological record is so important because it shows some of the oldest evidence for modern behavior in early humans. This includes the use of symbols, which has been linked to the development of complex language, and personal adornments made of seashells.

“The quality of the southern African data allowed us to make these correlations between climate and behavioural change, but it will require comparable data from other areas before we can say whether this region was uniquely important in the development of modern human culture” added Professor Stringer.

The new study presents the most convincing evidence so far that abrupt climate change was instrumental in this development.

The research was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council and is part of the international Gateways training network, funded by the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union.

Climate slowdown means extreme rates of warming ‘not as likely’ (BBC)

19 May 2013 Last updated at 17:31 GMT

By Matt McGrath – Environment correspondent, BBC News

ice

The impacts of rising temperature are being felt particularly keenly in the polar regions

Scientists say the recent downturn in the rate of global warming will lead to lower temperature rises in the short-term.

Since 1998, there has been an unexplained “standstill” in the heating of the Earth’s atmosphere.

Writing in Nature Geoscience, the researchers say this will reduce predicted warming in the coming decades.

But long-term, the expected temperature rises will not alter significantly.

“The most extreme projections are looking less likely than before” – Dr Alexander Otto, University of Oxford

The slowdown in the expected rate of global warming has been studied for several years now. Earlier this year, the UK Met Office lowered their five-year temperature forecast.

But this new paper gives the clearest picture yet of how any slowdown is likely to affect temperatures in both the short-term and long-term.

An international team of researchers looked at how the last decade would impact long-term, equilibrium climate sensitivity and the shorter term climate response.

Transient nature

Climate sensitivity looks to see what would happen if we doubled concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere and let the Earth’s oceans and ice sheets respond to it over several thousand years.

Transient climate response is much shorter term calculation again based on a doubling of CO2.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported in 2007 that the short-term temperature rise would most likely be 1-3C (1.8-5.4F).

But in this new analysis, by only including the temperatures from the last decade, the projected range would be 0.9-2.0C.

IceThe report suggests that warming in the near term will be less than forecast

“The hottest of the models in the medium-term, they are actually looking less likely or inconsistent with the data from the last decade alone,” said Dr Alexander Otto from the University of Oxford.

“The most extreme projections are looking less likely than before.”

The authors calculate that over the coming decades global average temperatures will warm about 20% more slowly than expected.

But when it comes to the longer term picture, the authors say their work is consistent with previous estimates. The IPCC said that climate sensitivity was in the range of 2.0-4.5C.

Ocean storage

This latest research, including the decade of stalled temperature rises, produces a range of 0.9-5.0C.

“It is a bigger range of uncertainty,” said Dr Otto.

“But it still includes the old range. We would all like climate sensitivity to be lower but it isn’t.”

The researchers say the difference between the lower short-term estimate and the more consistent long-term picture can be explained by the fact that the heat from the last decade has been absorbed into and is being stored by the world’s oceans.

Not everyone agrees with this perspective.

Prof Steven Sherwood, from the University of New South Wales, says the conclusion about the oceans needs to be taken with a grain of salt for now.

“There is other research out there pointing out that this storage may be part of a natural cycle that will eventually reverse, either due to El Nino or the so-called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and therefore may not imply what the authors are suggesting,” he said.

The authors say there are ongoing uncertainties surrounding the role of aerosols in the atmosphere and around the issue of clouds.

“We would expect a single decade to jump around a bit but the overall trend is independent of it, and people should be exactly as concerned as before about what climate change is doing,” said Dr Otto.

Is there any succour in these findings for climate sceptics who say the slowdown over the past 14 years means the global warming is not real?

“None. No comfort whatsoever,” he said.

“Cientistas podem contar uma história sem perder a acurácia” (Fapesp)

Dan Fay, diretor da Microsoft Research Connections, afirma que a tecnologia pode ajudar os pesquisadores a expor artigos e atrair mais leitores, sejam eles seus pares, formuladores de políticas ou agências de fomento (foto:Edu Cesar/FAPESP)

Entrevistas

21/05/2013

Por Frances Jones

Agência FAPESP – Com mais de 20 anos de Microsoft, o engenheiro Dan Fay faz parte de um seleto grupo de profissionais que vasculha o mundo científico em busca de parcerias entre a gigante de informática e autores de projetos relacionados às ciências da Terra, energia e meio ambiente.

São projetos como o software World Wide Telescope, desenvolvido em parceria com pesquisadores da Universidade Johns Hopkins, que permite que cientistas de diversas regiões do mundo acessem imagens de objetos celestes coletadas por telescópios espaciais, observatórios e instituições de pesquisa, manipulem e compartilhem esses dados.

“Nosso desafio é encontrar pesquisadores a cuja pesquisa podemos agregar valor e não apenas fornecer mais máquinas”, disse Fay, que, além de ser diretor da divisão de Terra, Energia e Ambiente da Microsoft Research Connections, o braço de pesquisas da Microsoft, integra o conselho consultivo industrial para Computação e Tecnologia da Informação da Purdue University, no estado norte-americano de Indiana.

Fay esteve em São Paulo para participar do Latin American eScience Workshop 2013, promovido pela FAPESP e pela Microsoft Research de 13 a 15 de maio, quando proferiu duas palestras a pesquisadores e estudantes de diversos países sobre avanços em diversas áreas do conhecimento proporcionados pela melhoria na capacidade de análise de grandes volumes de informações. Em uma delas, falou sobre como a ciência pode utilizar a computação em nuvem; na outra, sobre “como divulgar sua pesquisa internacionalmente”. Em seguida, conversou com a Agência FAPESP. Leia abaixo, trechos da entrevista.

Agência FAPESP – O que o senhor espera para o futuro com relação à eScience, a utilização no fazer ciência de tecnologias e ferramentas de computação?
Fay – O interessante sobre a eScience é combinar dados computacionais e novas técnicas nas mais diversas áreas. O que vemos agora é um uso maior da computação, mas o passo seguinte será o cruzamento dos diferentes domínios e o uso combinado dessas informações, como, por exemplo, da biologia e do meio ambiente juntos, fazendo uma análise transversal. Os dois domínios falam línguas diferentes. A passagem entre as áreas será um dos próximos desafios. Não se pode assumir que um dado significa algo. É preciso ter certeza.

Agência FAPESP – Como os pesquisadores podem utilizar a computação em nuvem para seus estudos?
Fay – A computação em nuvem fornece um novo paradigma para enfrentar os desafios da computação e da análise de dados nas mais diversas áreas do conhecimento científico. Diferentemente dos supercomputadores tradicionais, isolados e centralizados, a nuvem está em todos os lugares e pode oferecer suporte a diferente estilos de computação que são adequados para a análise de dados e para colaboração. Nos últimos três anos temos trabalhado com pesquisadores acadêmicos para explorar o potencial desta nova plataforma. Temos mais de 90 projetos de pesquisa que usam o Windows Azure [plataforma em nuvem da Microsoft] e temos aprendido muito. Como em qualquer tecnologia nova, há sempre pessoas que começam antes e outras depois. Há vários pesquisadores que começaram a usá-la para compreender como isso pode mudar a forma com que fazem pesquisa.

Agência FAPESP – O senhor acha que no futuro haverá uma mudança na forma de se divulgar ciência?
Dan Fay – Comentei com os alunos no workshop que sempre haverá os artigos tradicionais, de revistas científicas, que são revisados pelos pares. Com a quantidade de informações que temos hoje, no entanto, para tornar isso mais visível para outras pessoas e para o público em geral, os dados também podem ser apresentados de outra forma. Um artigo que se aprofunda nos detalhes também pode ser acessível a pessoas de diferentes domínios. Produzir fotos e vídeos, entre outros recursos, também pode ajudar.

Agência FAPESP – Esse é um papel dos cientistas?
Fay – Você pode usar os mesmos dados científicos acurados e contar histórias sobre eles. E permitir que as pessoas escutem diretamente de você essa história de forma visual. Essa interação é muito poderosa. É a mesma coisa que ir ao museu e ver várias obras de arte: as pessoas se conectam a elas. Os cientistas querem que seus colegas e as pessoas em geral se conectem dessa forma com suas informações, dados ou artigos. Acho bom encontrar outros mecanismos que possam explicar os dados. Estamos em uma época fascinante na qual há uma preocupação em divulgar a informação de um jeito interessante. Isso é verdade não apenas quando se quer falar para os seus pares, mas especialmente se você quer que os formuladores de políticas, o governo ou as agências de fomento entendam o que é o seu trabalho. Às vezes ele tem de ser apresentado de forma que possa ser consumido com mais facilidade.

Agência FAPESP – A tecnologia ajuda nesse ponto?
Fay – Sim. Parte disso porque essas formas fazem com que as pessoas leiam com mais profundidade os artigos. Há uma pesquisadora em Harvard, uma astrônoma, que criou um desses tours virtuais que temos sobre as galáxias. Ela calcula que mais pessoas assistiram a seus tours do que leram seus artigos científicos. Esse tipo de entendimento está aumentando. Se posso ajudar alguém a ler um artigo ao ver isso em outro lugar, isso é um avanço.

Agência FAPESP – O senhor acha que os cientistas devem entrar em redes sociais digitais, como o Facebook, para expor seus trabalhos?
Fay – Sim. Eles devem sempre se apoiar no rigor científico, mas ajuda empregar técnicas de design ou de marketing. Mesmo em seus pôsteres. É uma forma de divulgar melhor as informações.

Agência FAPESP – E as novas tecnologias promoverão a abertura dos dados científicos?
Fay – Para além da abertura de dados, há um problema social, no qual as pessoas se sentem donas de suas ideias ou informações. Encontrar formas de compartilhar os dados e dar o devido reconhecimento às pessoas que os coletaram, processaram e os tornaram disponíveis é importante. É aí, acredito, que estão vários desafios. Também há a questão dos dados médicos ou de outros dados que você não quer que fiquem soltos por aí.

Cientistas americanos conseguem clonar embriões humanos (O Globo)

Trabalho é o primeiro a obter êxito em humanos com a técnica que deu origem à ovelha Dolly

Autores dizem que não se trata de fazer clones humanos, mas sim avançar apenas até a fase de blastocisto para obter as células-tronco

Em 2004, sul-coreano anunciou o mesmo feito mas foi desmentido um ano depois

ROBERTA JANSEN

Publicado:15/05/13 – 16h03; atualizado:15/05/13 – 20h56

Clone de embrião obtido no estudoFoto: DivulgaçãoClone de embrião obtido no estudo Divulgação

OREGON. Dezesseis anos depois da clonagem do primeiro mamífero, a ovelha Dolly, cientistas conseguiram, pela primeira vez, clonar um embrião humano em seus primeiros estágios de desenvolvimento. Os protoembriões foram usados para produzir células-tronco embrionárias — capazes de se transformar em qualquer tecido do corpo —, num avanço bastante significativo e há muito tempo esperado para o tratamento de lesões e doenças graves como Parkinson, esclerose múltipla e problemas cardíacos. Especialistas envolvidos no processo garantem que o objetivo não é clonar seres humanos, mas, sim criar novas terapias personalizadas.

Tanto é assim que os embriões humanos clonados usados na pesquisa foram destruídos em estágios ainda muito iniciais de desenvolvimento, logo depois da extração das células-tronco, e não levados ao crescimento, como no caso da ovelha Dolly e de tantos outros animais clonados depois dela. A técnica usada, no entanto, foi bastante similar à que criou a ovelha. Células da pele de um indivíduo foram colocadas em um óvulo previamente esvaziado de seu material genético e estimuladas a se desenvolver. Quando atingiram a fase de blastocisto, as células-tronco embrionárias foram extraídas e os embriões destruídos. O estudo foi publicado na revista “Cell”.

Conseguir gerar grande quantidade de células-tronco do próprio paciente era uma espécie de Santo Graal da atual ciência médica, como comparou o jornalista Steve Connor, no “Independent”. Embora o procedimento tenha sido feito com animais, até agora nunca tinha sido obtido com material humano, a despeito de inúmeras tentativas. Aparentemente, a dificuldade viria da maior fragilidade do óvulo humano.

Em 2004, um grupo coordenado por Woo Suk Hwang, da Universidade Nacional de Seoul, anunciou ter produzido o primeiro embirão humano clonado e, em seguida, obtido células-tronco embionárias a partir dele. Menos de um ano depois, no entanto, o grupo, que já havia clonado um cachorro, foi acusado de fraude e desmentiu os resultados obtidos. Outros grupos tentaram, mas os embriões não passaram do estágio de 6 a 12 células.

A corrida pela obtenção das células-tronco embrionárias faz todo o sentido. Cultivadas em laboratório, essas células podem dar origem a qualquer tecido do corpo humano. Por isso, em tese ao menos, poderiam curar lesões na medula, recompor órgãos, tratar problemas graves de visão, oferecendo tratamentos inéditos para muitas doenças hoje incuráveis. Como os tecidos seriam feitos a partir do material genético do próprio paciente (que, no caso, cedeu as células de sua pele), não haveria risco algum de rejeição. A medicina personalizada alcançaria o seu ápice.

— Nossa descoberta oferece novas maneiras de gerar células-tronco embrionárias para pacientes com problemas em tecidos e órgãos — afirmou o coordenador do estudo, Shoukhrat Mitalipov, da Universidade de Ciência e Saúde do Oregon, nos EUA, em comunicado oficial sobre o estudo. — Essas células-tronco podem regenerar órgãos ou substituir tecidos danificados, levando à cura de doenças que hoje afetam milhões de pessoas.

O grupo também conseguiu observar a capacidade de diferenciação das células obtidas em tecidos específicos

— Um atento exame das células-tronco obtidas por meio desta técnica demonstrou sua capacidade de se converter, como qualquer célula-tronco embrionária normal, em diferentes tipos de células, entre elas, células nervosas, células do fígado e céluas cardíacas — disse Mitalipov, em entrevista ao “Independent”.

No entanto, o estudo já levanta sérias preocupações éticas, sobretudo em relação à criação de clones humanos. Há o temor de que a técnica seja incorporada às oferecidas por clínicas de fertilização in vitro, como alternativa para casais estéreis, por exemplo. Outros grupos argumentam que é simplesmente antiético manipular embriões humanos.

— A pesquisa tem como único objetivo gerar células-tronco embrionárias para tratar doenças graves; e não aumentar as chances de produzir bebês clonados — garantiu Mitalipov. — Este não é o nosso foco e não acreditamos que nossas descobertas sejam usadas por outros grupos como um avanço na clonagem humana reprodutiva.

Leia mais sobre esse assunto em http://oglobo.globo.com/ciencia/cientistas-americanos-conseguem-clonar-embrioes-humanos-8399684#ixzz2TlwDWsur  © 1996 – 2013. Todos direitos reservados a Infoglobo Comunicação e Participações S.A. Este material não pode ser publicado, transmitido por broadcast, reescrito ou redistribuído sem autorização.

Convívio entre homens e cães criou semelhanças genéticas (O Globo)

Amigos há 32 mil anos, a milenar relação entre as duas espécies tem estudo apresentado por zoólogos chineses 

ROBERTA JANSEN

Publicado:17/05/13 – 6h00; Atualizado:17/05/13 – 6h00

<br />Amizade milenar . Um homem e seu cachorro: novo estudo revela que relação já dura 32 mil anos e funciona tão bem porque evoluiu de forma compartilhada<br />Foto: John Hart / APAmizade milenar . Um homem e seu cachorro: novo estudo revela que relação já dura 32 mil anos e funciona tão bem porque evoluiu de forma compartilhada John Hart / AP

RIO- Cachorros podem, de fato, ser os melhores amigos do homem porque compartilham uma história evolutiva em comum muito mais longa do que se imaginava. Estudo publicado esta semana na “Nature Communications” revelou que os cães teriam sido domesticados há 32 mil anos — quase o dobro do que se acreditava. Esta duradoura e intensa relação teria, inclusive, um impacto na genética dos animais e dos homens, que foi ficando parecida em alguns aspectos. Na verdade, conclui o estudo, os cães se auto-domesticaram para serem mais aceitos pelos humanos que, por sua vez, também se adaptaram aos animais.

Um grupo de pesquisadores do Instituto de Zoologia da China, coordenados por Ya-Ping Zhang, obteve o genoma completo de quatro lobos cinzentos de diferentes pontos da Ásia e da Europa, três cachorros nativos do sudoeste da China, e três representantes de raças atuais. Geneticistas confirmaram que os cães nativos da China representam o primeiro estágio da domesticação canina — o genoma deles traz informação sobre a transição de lobos para os cachorros ancestrais, tornando-os uma espécie de “elo perdido” da domesticação.

Os lobos se auto-domesticaram

A equipe descobriu também que os lobos apresentam a maior diversidade genética, enquanto que os cachorros modernos ficam com a menor. Analisando a quantidade de mutações, os especialistas conseguiram estabelecer que a separação entre lobos e cães nativos chineses ocorreu na Ásia, há 32 mil anos.

Diferentemente do que se imaginava, dizem os cientistas, os homens não adotaram filhotes de lobos. Teria sido bem o oposto disso.

O processo provavelmente começou com os lobos que rondavam em torno de populações humanas de caçadores-coletores em busca de restos de alimento e carcaças, num processo que os pesquisadores chamam de auto-domesticação.

— A hipótese mais interessante levantada por essa pesquisa é a auto-domesticação — afirmou Zhang em entrevista. — De acordo com essa hipótese, os primeiros lobos teriam sido atraídos para viver e caçar com os humanos. E com sucessivas mudanças adaptativas, esses animais se tornaram progressivamente mais propensos a viver com os homens.

Nesta situação, os lobos mais agressivos teriam se saído muito mal, porque a tendência seria que fossem mortos pelos homens. Os animais mais mansos, no entanto, teriam se adaptado melhor e se multiplicado. Ou seja, os lobos se auto-domesticaram.

A pesquisa conseguiu estabelecer que a domesticação impôs uma determinante força seletiva nos genes envolvidos na digestão e no metabolismo — provavelmente por conta da mudança de uma dieta estritamente carnívora para uma onívora.

Os genes que governam processos neurológicos complexos também sofreram tal pressão, sobretudo devido à necessidade de redução da agressão e do aumento de complexos processos de interação com os seres humanos.

Curiosamente, o grupo descobriu que a contraparte humana de diversos desses genes, particularmente aqueles envolvidos nos processos neurológicos, também sofreram uma forte pressão seletiva ao longo do tempo, refletindo os fatores ambientais similares vivenciados por homens e cachorros ao longo de milhares de anos de uma relação tão próxima.

Mais dóceis e mansos

Alguns dos genes estão associados a doenças similares no homem e no cão. Outros são ativos na região do córtex pré-frontal, onde os mamíferos tomam decisões sobre o comportamento. Alguns genes estão envolvidos no maior número de conexões entre os neurônios. Um gene em particular, o SLC6A4, é responsável pela codificação da proteína que transporta o neurotransmissor serotonina.

— Outros estudos já haviam revelado que o gene é relacionado ao comportamento agressivo e ao transtorno obsessivo-compulsivo não apenas em homens mas também em cachorros — afirmou Zhang.

Mudança semelhante foi também constatada nos homens — indicando que nós também tivemos que nos tornar menos agressivos para tolerar os outros e viver bem em grupos.

Para o cientista, o estudo da base genética de diversas doenças em cães pode ajudar na compreensão de doenças similares em humanos.

Leia mais sobre esse assunto em http://oglobo.globo.com/ciencia/convivio-entre-homens-caes-criou-semelhancas-geneticas-8415160#ixzz2TluyW7T9 © 1996 – 2013. Todos direitos reservados a Infoglobo Comunicação e Participações S.A. Este material não pode ser publicado, transmitido por broadcast, reescrito ou redistribuído sem autorização.

World Bank turns to hydropower to square development with climate change (Washington Post)

Michael Reynolds/European Photopress Agency – World Bank President Jim Yong Kim attends the Fragility Forum this month in Washington. The forum discussed ways for fragile nations to improve their economies, their infrastructure and the well-being of their citizens.

By , Published: May 8, 2013

The World Bank is making a major push to develop large-scale hydropower projects around the globe, something it had all but abandoned a decade ago but now sees as crucial to resolving the tension between economic development and the drive to tame carbon use.

Major hydropower projects in Congo, Zambia, Nepal and elsewhere — all of a scale dubbed “transformational” to the regions involved — are a focus of the bank’s fundraising drive among wealthy nations. Bank lending for hydropower has scaled up steadily in recent years, and officials expect the trend to continue amid a worldwide boom in water-fueled electricity.

Such projects were shunned in the 1990s, in part because they can be disruptive to communities and ecosystems. But the World Bank is opening the taps for dams, transmission lines and related infrastructure as its president, Jim Yong Kim, tries to resolve a quandary at the bank’s core: how to eliminate poverty while adding as little as possible to carbon emissions.

“Large hydro is a very big part of the solution for Africa and South Asia and Southeast Asia. . . . I fundamentally believe we have to be involved,” said Rachel Kyte, the bank’s vice president for sustainable development and an influential voice among Kim’s top staff members. The earlier move out of hydro “was the wrong message. . . . That was then. This is now. We are back.”

It is a controversial stand. The bank backed out of large-scale hydropower because of the steep trade-offs involved. Big dams produce lots of cheap, clean electricity, but they often uproot villages in dam-flooded areas and destroy the livelihoods of the people the institution is supposed to help. A 2009 World Bank review of hydro­power noted the “overwhelming environmental and social risks” that had to be addressed but also concluded that Africa and Asia’s vast and largely undeveloped hydropower potential was key to providing dependable electricity to the hundreds of millions of people who remain without it.

“What’s the one issue that’s holding back development in the poorest countries? It’s energy. There’s just no question,” Kim said in an interview.

Advocacy groups remain skeptical, arguing that large projects, such as Congo’s long-debated network of dams around Inga Falls, may be of more benefit to mining companies or industries in neighboring countries than poor communities.

“It is the old idea of a silver bullet that can modernize whole economies,” said Peter Bosshard, policy director of International Rivers, a group that has organized opposition to the bank’s evolving hydro policy and argued for smaller projects designed around communities rather than mega-dams meant to export power throughout a region.

“Turning back to hydro is being anything but a progressive climate bank,” said Justin Guay, a Sierra Club spokesman on climate and energy issues. “There needs to be a clear shift from large, centralized projects.”

The major nations that support the World Bank, however, have been pushing it to identify such projects — complex undertakings that might happen only if an international organization is involved in sorting out the financing, overseeing the performance and navigating the politics.

The move toward big hydro comes amid Kim’s stark warning that global warming will leave the next generation with an “unrecognizable planet.” That dire prediction, however, has left him struggling to determine how best to respond and frustrated by some of the bank’s inherent limitations.

In his speeches, Kim talks passionately about the bank’s ability to “catalyze” and “leverage” the world to action by mobilizing money and ideas, and he says he is hunting for ideas “equal to the challenge” of curbing carbon use. He has criticized the “small bore” thinking that he says has hobbled progress on the issue.

However, the bank remains in the business of financing traditional fossil-fuel plants, including those that use the dirtiest form of coal, as well as cleaner but ­carbon-based natural gas infrastructures.

Among the projects likely to cross Kim’s desk in coming months, for example, is a 600-megawatt power plant in Kosovo that would be fired by lignite coal, the bottom of the barrel when it comes to carbon emissions.

The plant has strong backing from the United States, the World Bank’s major shareholder. It also meshes with one of the bank’s other long-standing imperatives: Give countries what they ask for. The institution has 188 members to keep happy and can go only so far in trying to impose its judgment over that of local officials. Kim, who in his younger days demonstrated against World Bank-enforced “orthodoxy” in economic policy, now may be hard-pressed to enforce an energy orthodoxy of his own.

Kosovo’s domestic supplies of lignite are ample enough to free the country from imported fuel. Kim said there is little question that Kosovo needs more electricity, and the new plant will allow an older, more polluting facility to be shut down.

“I would just love to never sign a coal project,” Kim said. “We understand it is much, much dirtier, but . . . we have 188 members. . . . We have to be fair in balancing the needs of poor countries . . . with this other bigger goal of tackling climate change.”

The bank is working on other ideas. Kim said he is considering how it might get involved in creating a more effective world market for carbon, allowing countries that invest in renewable energy or “climate friendly” agriculture to be paid for their carbon savings by industries that need to use fossil fuels. Existing carbon markets have been plagued with volatile pricing — Europe’s cost of carbon has basically collapsed — or rules that prevent carbon trading with developing countries.

“We’ve got to figure out a way to establish a stable price of carbon,” Kim said. “Everybody knows that.”

He has also staked hope for climate progress on developments in agriculture.

Hydropower projects, however, seem notably inside what Kim says is the bank’s sweet spot — complex, high-impact, green and requiring the sort of joint public and private financing Kim says the bank can attract.

The massive hydropower potential of the Congo River, estimated at about 40,000 megawatts, is such a target. Its development is on a list of top world infrastructure priorities prepared by the World Bank and other development agencies for the Group of 20 major economic powers.

Two smaller dams on the river have been plagued by poor performance and are being rehabilitated with World Bank assistance. A third being planned would represent a quantum jump — a 4,800-megawatt, $12 billion giant that would move an entire region off carbon-based electricity.

The African Development Bank has begun negotiations over the financing, and the World Bank is ready to step in with tens of millions of dollars in technical-planning help.

“In an ideal world, we start building in 2016. By 2020, we switch on the lights,” said Hela Cheikhrouhou, energy and environment director for the African Development Bank.

It is the sort of project that the World Bank had stayed away from for many years — not least because of instability in the country. But as the country tries to move beyond its civil war and the region intensifies its quest for the power to fuel economic growth, the bank seems ready to move. Kim will visit Congo this month for a discussion about development in fragile and war-torn states.

Kyte, the World Bank vice president, said the Inga project will be high on the agenda.

“People have been looking at the Inga dam for as long as I have been in the development business,” she said. “The question is: Did the stars align? Did you have a government in place? Did people want to do it? Are there investors interested? Do you have the ability to do the technical work? The stars are aligned now. Let’s go.”

Chilean Judge Upholds Manslaughter Charges Linked to ’10 Tsunami (N.Y.Times)

By PASCALE BONNEFOY

Published: May 16, 2013

SANTIAGO, Chile — A judge dismissed an appeal to suspend involuntary manslaughter charges against four government officials accused of failing to issue a tsunami alert after the 8.8-magnitude earthquake that struck Chile in 2010.

“This court believes that not enough was done to avoid the catastrophic results” of the quake, Judge Ponciano Sallés said in his ruling. “Any reasonable analysis would conclude that the risk was greater by not evacuating the population than by doing so,” he said, adding that “information was concealed.”

The investigation into the deaths of 156 people and the disappearance of 25 more during the tsunami seeks to establish responsibility for the confusing and contradictory chain of decisions made by government officials and emergency agencies shortly after the earthquake. The actions resulted in mistaken public assurances that there was no risk of tsunami, despite reports that one had already devastated the Juan Fernández Archipelago in the Pacific, west of the Chilean coast.

The former director of the National Emergency Agency, Carmen Fernández, is accused of providing false information and not issuing a tsunami alert. The former under secretary of the interior, Patricio Rosende, has been charged with “imprudent conduct” in neglecting to warn the population. Both argued that it was up to the navy’s oceanographic service to issue the alert.

According to survivors, many families returned to their homes on the coast after hearing the president at the time, Michelle Bachelet, say on the radio that there was no danger of a tsunami. Raúl Meza, a lawyer for one victim’s family, has formally requested that prosecutors interrogate the former president as a suspect. Ms. Bachelet, who is campaigning for the presidential elections in November, has testified twice, but as a witness.

Three other officials have also been charged but did not appeal. The accusations, filed last year against the seven, include operating with inexperienced personnel, lacking knowledge on the use of technology, leaving shifts vacant at regional emergency agencies and ignoring field reports.

“If the accused had been fulfilling their duties, lives would have been saved,” said the lead prosecutor, Solange Huerta, after the ruling.

A version of this article appeared in print on May 17, 2013, on page A10 of the New York edition with the headline: Chilean Judge Rejects Appeal Of Charges In ’10 Tsunami.

Câmara de SP aprova projeto que permite enterro de pets com dono (Folha de S.Paulo)

16/05/2013 – 18h00

DE SÃO PAULO

A Câmara Municipal de São Paulo aprovou, em primeira votação nesta quinta-feira (16), o projeto de lei que permite que animais domésticos sejam enterrados no mesmo jazigo de seus donos em cemitérios municipais.

Ontem, a proposta já havia sido aprovada pela Comissão de Constituição e Justiça da casa. Agora, o projeto ainda precisa passar por outra votação na Câmara antes de ser sancionado pelo prefeito Fernando Haddad (PT).

Segundo o projeto, dos vereadores Roberto Tripoli (PV) e Antonio Goulart (PSD), o enterro destina-se a bichos de estimação de famílias que já têm jazigo nos cemitérios municipais.

De acordo com Goulart, o objetivo do projeto é solucionar a atual falta de local para destinação de animais mortos na cidade.

Segundo o vereador, mui­tas pessoas querem enterrar o bicho de estimação no ja­zigo familiar. “O animal faz parte da família.”

O projeto foi apresentado no plenário da Câmara na semana passada. “O projeto vai passar sem problemas. É um assunto atual”, previu Goulart.

O Serviço Funerário da cidade diz ser preciso um estudo técnico para avaliar a viabilidade da proposta.

Câmara de São Paulo aprova envio de torpedo para alertar chuvas (Folha de S.Paulo)

16/05/2013 – 17h01

GIBA BERGAMIM JR., DE SÃO PAULO

Atualizado às 17h54.

A Câmara de São Paulo aprovou um projeto que obriga a prefeitura a enviar mensagens de texto aos celulares dos paulistanos com alertas sobre a chegada de chuvas e de iminentes alagamentos.

De autoria do vereador Ricardo Young (PPS), o projeto agora precisa ser sancionado pelo prefeito Fernando Haddad (PT) para começar a valer.

Hoje, a única maneira de se informar sobre isso é acompanhando o noticiário nas rádios e emissoras de TV ou por meio do site do CGE (Centro de Gerenciamento de Emergências), da prefeitura, que monitora as chuvas na cidade.

O vereador diz que se inspirou em iniciativas do tipo nos Estados Unidos e Europa para dar informações sobre nevascas, por exemplo.

Em 2011, a prefeitura deu início a um projeto semelhante, mas apenas para os moradores da região da favela Pantanal, na zona leste de São Paulo, que sofreu com as enchentes durante quase dois meses inteiros durante o verão.

De acordo com o texto de Young, o município terá que celebrar convênios com empresas de telefonia móvel. As informações terão que ser passadas com antecedência de pelo menos duas horas aos paulistanos.

Segundo o parlamentar, o projeto permitiria que empresas, repartições públicas e escolas pudessem antecipar o fim do expediente para que os paulistanos cheguem em casa antes das chuvas.

PROJETOS

Também foi aprovado projeto dos vereadores Antonio Goulart (PSD) e Roberto Trípoli (PV) que permite que os animais de estimação sejam enterrados no mesmo jazigo de seus donos em cemitérios municipais. O projeto irá a segunda votação.

A um ano da Copa do Mundo, os vereadores também deram o título de cidadão paulistano para o presidente da Fifa, Joseph Blatter

Scientist Superheroes: The US Government’s Crisis Science Team (Quest)

Post on May 13, 2013 by , Guest Contributor for   (science.kqed.org)

Science During Crisis 640 360

If your town were suddenly struck by an earthquake or hurricane, you could count on the arrival of police, firefighters, and medical technicians to aid in the emergency response. As of this past January, the US government has added a new team of responders to this list—scientists.

The Strategic Sciences Group was formed under Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar in order to help the department “act quickly, decisively and effectively when hurricanes, droughts, oil spills, wildfires or other crises strike.” The group was initially tested as a pilot program during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and is now a permanent part of the Department of the Interior.

But don’t expect to see people in lab coats rushing into burning buildings or diving into flooding rivers.

“The Strategic Sciences Group’s mission,” says group co-leader Gary Machlis, “is to very quickly assemble a team of scientists to develop scenarios of what the cascading consequences of a crisis might be.” These scenarios are projections of all the different ways in which the disaster might play out. The projections are then delivered to the President and other national leaders to help inform real-time, emergency-response decisions.

During Deepwater Horizon, for example, calculations regarding oil flow rates helped decision-makers respond to obvious problems such as ecosystem contamination, as well as some subtler consequences: long-term displacement of oyster harvesters, disproportionate economic impacts upon cultural communities, and diminished hurricane resilience due to wetland stress.

Deepwater Horizon in flames, April 21, 2010.

Deepwater Horizon in flames, April 21, 2010.
(AP Photo/U.S. Coast Guard)

With such a breadth of potential consequences to examine, its clear that the Strategic Sciences Group’s task is not simple. What is surprising however, is that many of the group’s difficulties stem from the nature of the scientific process itself.

“Scientists are very accustomed to being deliberate in their work,” says Marcia Mcnutt, who worked with the Strategic Sciences Group during her tenure as director of the United States Geological Survey. “The idea that they might get critical info on a Monday night and need to have their best guess of what that info means by six am Tuesday morning is just not the normal way science operates.”

And, Machlis adds, the rapidly determined results must also be communicated persuasively.

“It isn’t enough to do good science. You might have an extraordinary, complex scenario figured out that’s important for leaders to know, but if you can’t tell that story clearly and effectively, it’s of less value.”

These requirements—the ability to work with urgency, cope with uncertainty, and communicate well with non-scientists—separate crisis science from traditional scientific research.

When creating the Strategic Sciences Group, Machlis responded to these unique demands by borrowing ideas from an unusual agency: The Office of Strategic Services, or OSS, which was established during World War II to coordinate espionage activities behind enemy lines.

Machlis says he has learned four important lessons from the historic military-intelligence organization:

1. Who You Hire Matters

OSS founder Maj. Gen. William J. Donovan with members of the OSS Operational Groups

OSS founder Maj. Gen. William J. Donovan with members of the OSS
Photo Courtesy of the OSS Society

“The ideal candidate for the OSS were PhD’s that could win a bar fight,” says Machlis.

While martial arts training is not an actual requirement, the Strategic Sciences Group does seek scientists with a certain mental and physical tenacity. “They‘ve got to be expert in their own discipline, able to transcend their own discipline and work well with other scientists, and they have to be able to work extremely hard under very intense conditions.”

2. Expertise Not Representation

“Our goal is to get the very best people in the field working on these science teams. It is less about do we need one person from this agency and one person from this agency to make sure it’s representative.”

From government scientists to graduate students, anyone with the necessary skills can be recruited and put onto Machlis’ lists, or “rosters”.

3. Be Flexible

US Department of the Interior Strategic Sciences Working Group, New Orleans, LA, July 2010.

US Department of the Interior Strategic Sciences Working Group, New Orleans, LA, July 2010. Photo Credit: Jason Newman

Machlis ensures that the rosters are highly interdisciplinary. The 30 scientists who have already been called to action include “an anthropologist with expertise in disaster response from Louisiana, a public health medical officer from Washington, DC, a coastal geomorphologist from California, an ecologist working with a major natural history museum, and a Forest Service social scientist with expertise in urban ecology.”

Such diversity allows the Strategic Sciences Group to be highly adaptable.

“Each crisis that might happen, whether it’s an oil spill, whether it’s an earth quake, whether it’s a dam failure, there’s always going to be many elements of it that are unique. We need to be flexible enough to choose a team that has reliable expert scientists appropriate to that crisis.”

4. Avoid Bureaucracy

“We stay focused on the mission rather than developing a lot of complicated, time-consuming bureaucratic processes.”

In order to avoid creating a large government agency, Machlis only activates the rostered scientists when a disaster occurs. At all other times, the Strategic Sciences Group is made up of only three people.

This three person team, when there are no current crises, spends its time evaluating the consequences of potential crises.

By considering situations such as “a forest fire in the sierras during Yosemite’s tourist season, or a pandemic, or an arctic oil spill,” the group hopes to pre-emptively increase response preparedness. Ultimately, Machlis aims to have the capacity to address simultaneous, bi-coastal disasters. For example: an earthquake in California and a hurricane in New York on the same day.

When will the group be ready for such a situation?

“I would hope that we’re prepared for that within the year.”

Mark that down as December 31st, 2013–the date when you can expect not only police and firefighters, but also scientists, to play a role in addressing the next major natural or man-made disaster.

Nos últimos 150 anos, já tentaram de tudo para a ‘cura gay’, diz livro (Folha de S.Paulo)

14/05/2013 – 16h32

da Livraria da Folha

A tentativa de transformar homossexuais em héteros usando métodos “científicos” já tem mais de 150 anos. A medicina, segundo os pesquisadores James Naylor Green e Ronaldo Polito, já tentou de tudo para “curá-los”.

“Confinamento, choques elétricos, medicação pesada, tratamento psicológico ou psiquiátrico, psicanálise individual, de grupo e familiar, camisa de força, transplante de testículos, eis aí algumas das “técnicas” de intervenção no corpo e na mente dos homens que preferem se relacionar afetiva e sexualmente com outros homens”, contam em “Frescos Trópicos”.

O título faz parte da coleção “Baú de Histórias”, coordenada pela historiadora Mary Del Priore, autora “Histórias Íntimas”“Ancestrais: Uma Introdução à História da África Atlântica”“A Família no Brasil Colonial”“500 Anos Brasil: Histórias e Reflexões“Festas e Utopias no Brasil Colonial” e“Matar para Não Morrer” e do recém-lançado “O Castelo de Papel”.

No livro, os autores examinam o período entre as décadas de 1870 e 1980, fundamentados em informações publicadas nessa época. Abaixo, leia trecho de “Frescos Trópicos”.

 

Acompanha o surgimento lento de uma consciência sobre a homossexualidade “Pode-se dizer que a medicina, nos últimos 150 anos, já tentou ou propôs de tudo para a “cura” dos homossexuais. Confinamento, choques elétricos, medicação pesada, tratamento psicológico ou psiquiátrico, psicanálise individual, de grupo e familiar, camisa de força, transplante de testículos, eis aí algumas das “técnicas” de intervenção no corpo e na mente dos homens que preferem se relacionar afetiva e sexualmente com outros homens.

Entre inúmeros exemplos do passado, citemos Pires de Almeira, em “Homossexualismo”, de 1906, que propõe um tratamento específico para os invertidos. Mas, primeiro, vamos entender o que ele chama de “invertido”: “é aquele que, de nascença, é já invertivo, e que, em toda a associação sexual, representa o papel de macho: é, pois, um macho mais macho, se se trata de um homem”. “Invertidos”, portanto, nascem homossexuais, diferentemente dos “pervertidos” que, segundo o autor, “depois de terem sido já sexuais normais, se tornaram invertidos por qualquer motivo”.

Para Pires de Almeida, o tratamento dos “pervertidos” é somente um pouco mais simples do que dos “invertidos”. Para estes ele recomenda, entre outros procedimentos:

“O invertido deveria ser acompanhado desde a infância, vigiado por uma espécie de tutor que, à feição de um aparelho ortopédico moral, fosse-lhe obstáculo ao desvio, trabalhando pertinentemente para que a consolidação se efetue em absoluto. (…)

Antes de tudo, devemos lembrar que tais desregramentos são puramente moléstias mentais; e, por isso, aconselharei, quando não tenhamos acompanhando o indivíduo desde a infância, e hajamos iniciado o tratamento em idade tardia, medicá-lo pela estética sugestiva; isto é, por meio do magnetismo e da sugestão combinados: bem orientar-lhe o espírito, dirigindo sua atenção para a beleza das formas femininas, cercá-lo de modelos célebres em pintura, na estatuária principalmente, e obrigá-lo à leitura de obras românticas em que tais belezas despertem as paixões tumultuosas. Facilitar-se-lhe-á o encontro com mulheres plasticamente sensuais, fáceis às carícias, graciosas, faceiras; não se hesitará até diante de certos subterfúrgios a princípio, tal como, por exemplo, o de provocar o coito do invertido com mulheres vestidas de homem; ou mesmo obrigá-lo a pernoitar com mulheres completamente nuas, ainda que não as goze.

Se, porém, existe, da parte do doente, repulsão invencível para as sociedades ambíguas, recorrer-se-á à convivência em outro meio: mulheres atraentes, sim, porém puras, puríssimas, virtuosas: o seio perfumado das famílias.”

“Frescos Trópicos”
Autores: Ronald Polito, James Naylor Green
Editora: José Olympio
Páginas: 196
Quanto: R$ 23,90 (preço promocional*)
Onde comprar: pelo telefone 0800-140090 ou pelo site da Livraria da Folha

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Climate Change Will Cause Widespread Global-Scale Loss of Common Plants and Animals, Researchers Predict (Science Daily)

May 12, 2013 — More than half of common plants and one third of the animals could see a dramatic decline this century due to climate change, according to research from the University of East Anglia.

Frog. Plants, reptiles and particularly amphibians are expected to be at highest risk. (Credit: © Anna Omelchenko / Fotolia)

Research published today in the journal Nature Climate Change looked at 50,000 globally widespread and common species and found that more than one half of the plants and one third of the animals will lose more than half of their climatic range by 2080 if nothing is done to reduce the amount of global warming and slow it down.

This means that geographic ranges of common plants and animals will shrink globally and biodiversity will decline almost everywhere.

Plants, reptiles and particularly amphibians are expected to be at highest risk. Sub-Saharan Africa, Central America, Amazonia and Australia would lose the most species of plants and animals. And a major loss of plant species is projected for North Africa, Central Asia and South-eastern Europe.

But acting quickly to mitigate climate change could reduce losses by 60 per cent and buy an additional 40 years for species to adapt. This is because this mitigation would slow and then stop global temperatures from rising by more than two degrees Celsius relative to pre-industrial times (1765). Without this mitigation, global temperatures could rise by 4 degrees Celsius by 2100.

The study was led by Dr Rachel Warren from UEA’s school of Environmental Sciences and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. Collaborators include Dr.Jeremy VanDerWal at James Cook University in Australia and Dr Jeff Price, also at UEA’s school of Environmental Sciences and the Tyndall Centre. The research was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).

Dr Warren said: “While there has been much research on the effect of climate change on rare and endangered species, little has been known about how an increase in global temperature will affect more common species.

“This broader issue of potential range loss in widespread species is a serious concern as even small declines in these species can significantly disrupt ecosystems.

“Our research predicts that climate change will greatly reduce the diversity of even very common species found in most parts of the world. This loss of global-scale biodiversity would significantly impoverish the biosphere and the ecosystem services it provides.

“We looked at the effect of rising global temperatures, but other symptoms of climate change such as extreme weather events, pests, and diseases mean that our estimates are probably conservative. Animals in particular may decline more as our predictions will be compounded by a loss of food from plants.

“There will also be a knock-on effect for humans because these species are important for things like water and air purification, flood control, nutrient cycling, and eco-tourism.

“The good news is that our research provides crucial new evidence of how swift action to reduce CO2 and other greenhouse gases can prevent the biodiversity loss by reducing the amount of global warming to 2 degrees Celsius rather than 4 degrees. This would also buy time — up to four decades — for plants and animals to adapt to the remaining 2 degrees of climate change.”

The research team quantified the benefits of acting now to mitigate climate change and found that up to 60 per cent of the projected climatic range loss for biodiversity can be avoided.

Dr Warren said: “Prompt and stringent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions globally would reduce these biodiversity losses by 60 per cent if global emissions peak in 2016, or by 40 per cent if emissions peak in 2030, showing that early action is very beneficial. This will both reduce the amount of climate change and also slow climate change down, making it easier for species and humans to adapt.”

Information on the current distributions of the species used in this research came from the datasets shared online by hundreds of volunteers, scientists and natural history collections through the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF).

Co-author Dr Jeff Price, also from UEA’s school of Environmental Studies, said: “Without free and open access to massive amounts of data such as those made available online through GBIF, no individual researcher is able to contact every country, every museum, every scientist holding the data and pull it all together. So this research would not be possible without GBIF and its global community of researchers and volunteers who make their data freely available.”

Journal Reference:

  1. R. Warren, J. VanDerWal, J. Price, J. A. Welbergen, I. Atkinson, et al. Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity lossNature Climate Change, 2013 DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1887

Global Networks Must Be Redesigned, Experts Urge (Science Daily)

May 1, 2013 — Our global networks have generated many benefits and new opportunities. However, they have also established highways for failure propagation, which can ultimately result in human-made disasters. For example, today’s quick spreading of emerging epidemics is largely a result of global air traffic, with serious impacts on global health, social welfare, and economic systems.

Our global networks have generated many benefits and new opportunities. However, they have also established highways for failure propagation, which can ultimately result in human-made disasters. For example, today’s quick spreading of emerging epidemics is largely a result of global air traffic, with serious impacts on global health, social welfare, and economic systems. (Credit: © Angie Lingnau / Fotolia)

Helbing’s publication illustrates how cascade effects and complex dynamics amplify the vulnerability of networked systems. For example, just a few long-distance connections can largely decrease our ability to mitigate the threats posed by global pandemics. Initially beneficial trends, such as globalization, increasing network densities, higher complexity, and an acceleration of institutional decision processes may ultimately push human-made or human-influenced systems towards systemic instability, Helbing finds. Systemic instability refers to a system, which will get out of control sooner or later, even if everybody involved is well skilled, highly motivated and behaving properly. Crowd disasters are shocking examples illustrating that many deaths may occur even when everybody tries hard not to hurt anyone.

Our Intuition of Systemic Risks Is Misleading

Networking system components that are well-behaved in separation may create counter-intuitive emergent system behaviors, which are not well-behaved at all. For example, cooperative behavior might unexpectedly break down as the connectivity of interaction partners grows. “Applying this to the global network of banks, this might actually have caused the financial meltdown in 2008,” believes Helbing.

Globally networked risks are difficult to identify, map and understand, since there are often no evident, unique cause-effect relationships. Failure rates may change depending on the random path taken by the system, with the consequence of increasing risks as cascade failures progress, thereby decreasing the capacity of the system to recover. “In certain cases, cascade effects might reach any size, and the damage might be practically unbounded,” says Helbing. “This is quite disturbing and hard to imagine.” All of these features make strongly coupled, complex systems difficult to predict and control, such that our attempts to manage them go astray.

“Take the financial system,” says Helbing. “The financial crisis hit regulators by surprise.” But back in 2003, the legendary investor Warren Buffet warned of mega-catastrophic risks created by large-scale investments into financial derivatives. It took 5 years until the “investment time bomb” exploded, causing losses of trillions of dollars to our economy. “The financial architecture is not properly designed,” concludes Helbing. “The system lacks breaking points, as we have them in our electrical system.” This allows local problems to spread globally, thereby reaching catastrophic dimensions.

A Global Ticking Time Bomb?

Have we unintentionally created a global time bomb? If so, what kinds of global catastrophic scenarios might humans face in complex societies? A collapse of the world economy or of our information and communication systems? Global pandemics? Unsustainable growth or environmental change? A global food or energy crisis? A cultural clash or global-scale conflict? Or will we face a combination of these contagious phenomena — a scenario that the World Economic Forum calls the “perfect storm”?

“While analyzing such global risks,” says Helbing, “one must bear in mind that the propagation speed of destructive cascade effects might be slow, but nevertheless hard to stop. It is time to recognize that crowd disasters, conflicts, revolutions, wars, and financial crises are the undesired result of operating socio-economic systems in the wrong parameter range, where systems are unstable.” In the past, these social problems seemed to be puzzling, unrelated, and almost “God-given” phenomena one had to live with. Nowadays, thanks to new complexity science models and large-scale data sets (“Big Data”), one can analyze and understand the underlying mechanisms, which let complex systems get out of control.

Disasters should not be considered “bad luck.” They are a result of inappropriate interactions and institutional settings, caused by humans. Even worse, they are often the consequence of a flawed understanding of counter-intuitive system behaviors. “For example, it is surprising that we didn’t have sufficient precautions against a financial crisis and well-elaborated contingency plans,” states Helbing. “Perhaps, this is because there should not be any bubbles and crashes according to the predominant theoretical paradigm of efficient markets.” Conventional thinking can cause fateful decisions and the repetition of previous mistakes. “In other words: While we want to do the right thing, we often do wrong things,” concludes Helbing. This obviously calls for a paradigm shift in our thinking. “For example, we may try to promote innovation, but suffer economic decline, because innovation requires diversity more than homogenization.”

Global Networks Must Be Re-Designed

Helbing’s publication explores why today’s risk analysis falls short. “Predictability and controllability are design issues,” stresses Helbing. “And uncertainty, which means the impossibility to determine the likelihood and expected size of damage, is often man-made.” Many systems could be better managed with real-time data. These would allow one to avoid delayed response and to enhance the transparency, understanding, and adaptive control of systems. However, even all the data in the world cannot compensate for ill-designed systems such as the current financial system. Such systems will sooner or later get out of control, causing catastrophic human-made failure. Therefore, a re-design of such systems is urgently needed.

Helbing’s Nature paper on “Globally Networked Risks” also calls attention to strategies that make systems more resilient, i.e. able to recover from shocks. For example, setting up backup systems (e.g. a parallel financial system), limiting the system size and connectivity, building in breaking points to stop cascade effects, or reducing complexity may be used to improve resilience. In the case of financial systems, there is still much work to be done to fully incorporate these principles.

Contemporary information and communication technologies (ICT) are also far from being failure-proof. They are based on principles that are 30 or more years old and not designed for today’s use. The explosion of cyber risks is a logical consequence. This includes threats to individuals (such as privacy intrusion, identity theft, or manipulation through personalized information), to companies (such as cybercrime), and to societies (such as cyberwar or totalitarian control). To counter this, Helbing recommends an entirely new ICT architecture inspired by principles of decentralized self-organization as observed in immune systems, ecology, and social systems.

Coming Era of Social Innovation

A better understanding of the success principles of societies is urgently needed. “For example, when systems become too complex, they cannot be effectively managed top-down” explains Helbing. “Guided self-organization is a promising alternative to manage complex dynamical systems bottom-up, in a decentralized way.” The underlying idea is to exploit, rather than fight, the inherent tendency of complex systems to self-organize and thereby create a robust, ordered state. For this, it is important to have the right kinds of interactions, adaptive feedback mechanisms, and institutional settings, i.e. to establish proper “rules of the game.” The paper offers the example of an intriguing “self-control” principle, where traffic lights are controlled bottom-up by the vehicle flows rather than top-down by a traffic center.

Creating and Protecting Social Capital

“One man’s disaster is another man’s opportunity. Therefore, many problems can only be successfully addressed with transparency, accountability, awareness, and collective responsibility,” underlines Helbing. Moreover, social capital such as cooperativeness or trust is important for economic value generation, social well-being and societal resilience, but it may be damaged or exploited. “Humans must learn how to quantify and protect social capital. A warning example is the loss of trillions of dollars in the stock markets during the financial crisis.” This crisis was largely caused by a loss of trust. “It is important to stress that risk insurances today do not consider damage to social capital,” Helbing continues. However, it is known that large-scale disasters have a disproportionate public impact, in part because they destroy social capital. As we neglect social capital in risk assessments, we are taking excessive risks.

Journal Reference:

  1. Dirk Helbing. Globally networked risks and how to respondNature, 2013; 497 (7447): 51 DOI:10.1038/nature12047

Extreme Political Attitudes May Stem from an Illusion of Understanding (Science Daily)

Apr. 29, 2013 — Having to explain how a political policy works leads people to express less extreme attitudes toward the policy, according to new research published in Psychological Science, a journal of the Association for Psychological Science.

The research suggests that people may hold extreme policy positions because they are under an illusion of understanding — attempting to explain the nuts and bolts of how a policy works forces them to acknowledge that they don’t know as much about the policy as they initially thought.

Psychological scientist Philip Fernbach of the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado, Boulder and his co-authors were interested in exploring some of the factors that could contribute to what they see as increasing political polarization in the United States.

“We wanted to know how it’s possible that people can maintain such strong positions on issues that are so complex — such as macroeconomics, health care, foreign relations — and yet seem to be so ill-informed about those issues,” says Fernbach.

Drawing on previous research on the illusion of understanding, Fernbach and colleagues speculated that one reason for the apparent paradox may be that voters think they understand how policies work better than they actually do.

In their first study, the researchers asked participants taking an online survey to rate how well they understood six political policies, including raising the retirement age for Social Security, instituting a national flat tax, and implementing merit-based pay for teachers. The participants were randomly assigned to explain two of the policies and then asked to re-rate how well they understood the policies.

As the researchers predicted, people reported lower understanding of all six policies after they had to explain them, and their positions on the policies were less extreme. In fact, the data showed that the more people’s understanding decreased, the more uncertain they were about the position, and the less extreme their position was in the end.

The act of explaining also affected participants’ behavior. People who initially held a strong position softened their position after having to explain it, making them less likely to donate bonus money to a related organization when they were given the opportunity to do so.

Importantly, the results affected people along the whole political spectrum, from self-identified Democrats to Republicans to Independents.

According to the researchers, these findings shed light on a psychological process that may help people to open the lines of communication in the context of a heated debate or negotiation.

“This research is important because political polarization is hard to combat,” says Fernbach. “There are many psychological processes that act to create greater extremism and polarization, but this is a rare case where asking people to attempt to explain makes them back off their extreme positions.”

In addition to Fernbach, co-authors include Todd Rogers of the Harvard Kennedy School; Craig R. Fox of the University of California, Los Angeles; and Steven A. Sloman of Brown University.

Journal Reference:

  1. P. M. Fernbach, T. Rogers, C. R. Fox, S. A. Sloman.Political Extremism Is Supported by an Illusion of UnderstandingPsychological Science, 2013; DOI:10.1177/0956797612464058