Arquivo da tag: Mudanças climáticas

Climate change in the news (DISCCRS)

10/12/2014UncategorizedClima, Mídia, Mudanças climáticasrenzotaddei

DISCCRS News – December 9, 2014 (Nancy Rose)

NEWS

‘Green Revolution’ changes breathing of the biosphere – Science Codex – November 19, 2014 – http://www.sciencecodex.com/green_revolution_changes_breathing_of_the_biosphere-145973

Increasing greenhouse gases linked to rains over Africa thousands of years ago – NSF Press Release 14-165 – December 4, 2014 – http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=133514&WT.mc_id=USNSF_51&WT.mc_ev=click

Only 60 years of farming left if soil degradation continues – Thomson Reuters Foundation – December 5, 2014 – http://www.trust.org/item/20141205165214-tj9dz/?source=fiOtherNews3

Lima climate talks: EU and US at odds over legally binding emissions targets – Guardian – December 2, 2014 – http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/dec/02/lima-climate-talks-eu-and-us-at-odds-over-legally-binding-emissions-targets

This year may be hottest on record; adds urgency to climate talks-UN – Reuters – December 3, 2014 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/03/climatechange-lima-temperatures-update-idUSL2N0

Adapting to a warmer climate could cost almost three times as much as thought, says UN report – Guardian – December 5, 2014 – http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/dec/05/adapting-to-a-warmer-climate-could-cost-almost-three-times-as-much-as-thought-says-un-report

China says climate aid inadequate, especially Australia – Reuters – December 4, 2014 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/04/us-climatechange-lima-china-idUSKCN0JI29A20141204

Better policy, finance needed to balance forests and farming – experts – Thomson Reuters Foundation – December 7, 2014 – http://www.trust.org/item/20141207134326-v1b7a/?source=fiOtherNews3

Climate adaptation costs soaring, funding to fall short – UN – Thomson Reuters Foundation – December 5, 2014 – http://www.trust.org/item/20141205190231-37s41/?source=fiOtherNews3

UN: climate change costs to poor underestimated – Associated Press – December 5, 2014 – http://bigstory.ap.org/article/49a444ed2b1646509f29a1f632d2e1c0/un-climate-change-costs-poor-underestimated

Rift widens among greens over burying carbon as climate fix – Reuters – December 5, 2014 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/05/us-climatechange-lima-greens-idUSKCN0JJ21R20141205

Australia named worst-performing industrial country on climate change – Guardian – December 8, 2014 – http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/dec/08/australia-named-worst-performing-industrial-country-on-climate-change

Green Climate Fund plans to turn on money tap in 2015 – director – Thomson Reuters Foundation – December 4, 2014 – http://www.trust.org/item/20141204232229-6wev7/?source=fiOtherNews3

Green groups urge climate fund to exclude fossils – Associated Press – December 3, 2014 ?
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/7eeaa0970a2b4adea736bc31ebed99b0/green-groups-urge-climate-fund-exclude-fossilsTN16T20141203

Liquid Light finds use for polluting CO2 gas – Guardian – December 8, 2014 – http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/dec/08/liquid-light-co2-greenhouse-gas-plastics-pet

Not long to wait till released CO2 turns up temperature – Climate News Network – December 7, 2014 – http://www.climatenewsnetwork.net/not-long-to-wait-till-released-co2-turns-up-temperature/

Warming reaches maximum 10 years after carbon dioxide emission – Carnegie Institution for Science Press Release (via AAAS EurekAlert) – December 2, 2014 – http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2014-12/ci-wrm120114.php

Study finds early warning signals of abrupt climate change – University of Exeter Press Release (via AAAS EurekAlert) – December 8, 2014 – http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2014-12/uoe-sfe120514.php

Warmer seas could cause faster melting of Antarctic ice leading to rising sea levels, says study – Guardian – December 5, 2014 – http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/dec/05/warmer-seas-could-cause-faster-melting-polar-ice-rising-sea-levels

How Scientists Unraveled the El Nino Mystery – Climate Central – December 7, 2014 – http://www.climatecentral.org/news/how-scientists-unraveled-the-el-nino-mystery-18412

The End and Beginning of the Arctic – Climate Central – December 6, 2014 – http://www.climatecentral.org/news/the-end-and-beginning-of-the-arctic-18407

Warm Water Invasion Is Fueling Striking Antarctic Ice Melt – Climate Central – December 4, 2014 – http://www.climatecentral.org/news/warm-water-invasion-fueling-striking-antarctic-ice-melt-18401

Antarctica: Heat comes from the deep – Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel Press Release (via AAAS EurekAlert) – December 4, 2014 – http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2014-12/hcfo-ahc120114.php

Warm water undermining Antarctica’s ice shelves – New Scientist – December 4, 2014 – http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26657-warm-water-undermining-antarcticas-ice-shelves.html#.VIY-4iiv1sQ

Hotter, weirder: How climate has changed Earth – Associated Press – December 2, 2014 – http://bigstory.ap.org/article/0ec806f3702b4b61b65f7d3de3867729/hotter-weirder-how-climate-has-changed-earth

“What is ecological engineering?” (Inhabiting the Anthropocene)

10/12/2014UncategorizedAntropoceno, Geoengenharia, Mudanças climáticas, Pós-humanorenzotaddei

“What is ecological engineering?”
by Ingo Schlupp

CITATION:
Mitsch, W.J. 2012. Ecological Engineering, Vol. 45, pp. 5-12.
ON-LINE AVAILABILITY:
doi:10.1016/j.ecoleng.2012.04.013

ABSTRACT:
Ecological engineering, defined as the design of sustainable ecosystems that integrate human society with its natural environment for the benefit of both, has developed over the last 30 years, and rapidly over the last 10 years. Its goals include the restoration of ecosystems that have been substantially disturbed by human activities and the development of new sustainable ecosystems that have both human and ecological values. It is especially needed as conventional energy sources diminish and amplification of nature’s ecosystem services is needed even more. There are now several universities developing academic pro- grams or departments called ecological engineering, ecological restoration, or similar terms, the number of manuscripts submitted to the journal Ecological Engineering continue to increase at an rapid rate, and the U.S. National Science Foundation now has a specific research focus area called ecological engineer- ing. There are many private firms now developing and even prospering that are now specializing in the restoration of streams, rivers, lakes, forests, grasslands, and wetlands, the rehabilitation of minelands and urban brownfields, and the creation of treatment wetlands and phytoremediation sites. It appears that the perfect synchronization of academy, publishing, research resources, and practice is beginning to develop. Yet the field still does not have a formal accreditation in engineering and receives guarded acceptance in the university system and workplace alike.
William Mitsch is one of the founders of the field of Ecological Engineering, which specializes on managing and restoring ecosystems. There seems to be an obvious connection between the Anthropocene idea and this relatively new field. The Mitsch paper is a good place to start to understand the effort to be more deliberate and thoughtful about ways we intervene in natural systems—something that has run amok in the Anthropocene.

But it is important to me to put Ecological Engineering into a biological context. One of the key concepts that come to the mind of a biologist when we think of the Anthropocence is how almost any organism manipulates its environment. (Zev Trachtenberg has posted on the related idea of “niche construction.”) This is sometimes an apparent byproduct of physiological functions like plants releasing oxygen into the air (thereby making the planet hospitable to most animals) or a very clear, active manipulation like the beaver dam that creates a pond. The pond directly serves the beavers, but many organisms benefit from the existence of the novel pond. Others drown, of course. This kind of large scale and far reaching effect is classified as ecosystem engineering and has become a key concept in ecology. We now recognize that ecosystem engineering has many consequences, including a large increase in species richness. (In the Further Reading section I list a recent meta-analysis by Romero et al. in the highly respected journal Biological Reviews which just made this point.)

So, animals manipulate their environment all the time, how about humans? How are our efforts different? Often we simply mimic nature: we put artificial reefs in place of natural ones. These fake reefs have some of the same functions as natural reefs built by corals, mainly providing hard substrate for other animals to grow upon. Because corals provide more that just a substrate and are living, breathing part of the reef, other functions cannot be mimicked.

Humans have taken ecosystem engineering to a new dimension, partly creating the very Anthropocene we are discussing here. Like almost every other species on the planet our own species has altered the environment from Day 1, but when did we cross the threshold and became the masters of ecosystem engineering? Was it the invention of agriculture? Or any other milestone in the evolution of humanity?

Whenever it was, for our own species ecosystem engineering is obviously now very active and has resulted in planet-wide alterations. This leads me back to Ecological Engineering: it is an applied science, pioneered by Mitsch, who has promoted it since the early 1990’s. What is intriguing about this field is that it is by definition transdisciplinary, but it suffers from a problem that all of transdisciplinary approaches have, namely limited acceptance in the “pure” fields.

It is necessary for us to realize that Ecosystem Engineering, when done by humans has a moral and political dimension to it, but an engineering approach has additional aspects to think about: Engineering might be a misleading term, as it implies that we have control over all the moving parts. The science of Ecology is far from having a complete understanding of the dynamics that govern ecosystems; can we manage something we don’t understand all that well? At the same time we may have already altered all “natural” systems to a point where we are unable to research them as if they were naturals. Maybe this is the biological version of Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle.

FURTHER READING:
Mitsch, W.J., 1993. Ecological engineering—a cooperative role with the planetary life–support systems. Environmental Science and Technology, 27, 438–445. DOI: 10.1021/es00040a600. One of Mitsch’s early papers that helped launch the field.

Romero, G.Q. et al. 2014. Ecosystem engineering effects on species diversity across ecosystems: a meta-analysis. Biological Reviews, DOI: 10.1111/brv.12138. This paper argues that ecosystem engineering increases the number of species, but the effects depend e.g. on latitude (they are stronger in the tropics) and other factors.

Jason Moore: Anthropocene or Capitalocene? (Anthropo.scene)

05/12/2014UncategorizedAntropoceno, Mudanças climáticasrenzotaddei

DECEMBER 5, 2014 BY JEREMY SCHMIDT

Study: California drought is the most severe in at least 1,200 years (Washington Post)

05/12/2014UncategorizedCalifórnia, Estados Unidos, Mudanças climáticas, Paleoclimatologia, Secarenzotaddei

By Angela Fritz December 4 at 3:40 PM

The current drought in California is the worst the state has seen in at least 1,200 years, according to a recent study published by the American Geophysical Union.

Scientists at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute and the University of Minnesota reconstructed California’s temperature and precipitation history back to 800 A.D. using tree ring data. Hidden in this millennium of data they found as many as 66 dry periods of at least three to nine years. In the entire 1,200 year period they studied, there were only three droughts that were similar in nature to the current drought.

Though none have been as severe as what California has seen in the three years since 2012. Not even the historic droughts of the late 1970s, nor the late 1980s. The study also found that 2014 was the worst single drought year in the past 1,200 years, and that approximately 44 percent of California’s 3-year droughts have gone on to last another year, or longer.

Interestingly, California’s current lack of rainfall is not unprecedented in the 1,200-year record. The study concludes that the current drought was a result of both below-average precipitation and record-breaking high temperatures, and that the latter could have intensified the drought by about 36 percent.

This week has been particularly rainy one for California, which is being blasted by a series of storms that are channeling moisture into the state. San Francisco has seen over 3.5 inches of rain since Monday, compared to 2013, when they only received 0.35 inches in the whole month. They’re average rainfall for the entire month of December is 4.03, so the city is well on it’s way to at least making par. Los Angeles has racked up over 1.5 inches of rain so far this month, where the December average is 2.05.

However, much, much more rainfall is needed to put a dent in the drought.

Fifty five percent of California remains in an “exceptional drought” as of Thursday — the most severe classification on the scale used by the U.S. Drought Monitor, and 100 percent of the state remains in at least a moderate drought. Many of the state’s critical reservoirs remain well below their historical average.

While this week’s rain and snow will be a step in the right direction, California still has a long way to go to reach total drought abatement. As of October, the National Climatic Data Center was estimating that most of California’s central valley as well as Northern California would need anywhere from 18 to 21 inches of precipitation over the next six months to end the drought.

This week’s rains will be beneficial, but they won’t be nearly enough.

Geoengineering Gone Wild: Newsweek Touts Turning Humans Into Hobbits To Save Climate (Climate Progress)

05/12/2014UncategorizedGeoengenharia, Mediação tecnológica, Mudanças climáticas, Pós-humanorenzotaddei

BY JOE ROMM POSTED ON DECEMBER 5, 2014 AT 9:37 AM

Matamata, New Zealand - "Hobbiton," site created for filming Hollywood blockbusters The Hobbit and Lord of the Rings.

A Newsweek cover story touts genetically engineering humans to be smaller, with better night vision (like, say, hobbits) to save the Earth. Matamata, New Zealand, or “Hobbiton,” site created for filming Hollywood blockbusters The Hobbit and Lord of the Rings. CREDIT: SHUTTERSTOCK

Newsweek has an entire cover story devoted to raising the question, “Can Geoengineering Save the Earth?” After reading it, though, you may not realize the answer is a resounding “no.” In part that’s because Newsweek manages to avoid quoting even one of the countless general critics of geoengineering in its 2700-word (!) piece.

20141205cover600-x-800 Geoengineering is not a well-defined term, but at its broadest, it is the large-scale manipulation of the Earth and its biosphere to counteract the effects of human-caused global warming. Global warming itself is geo-engineering — originally unintentional, but now, after decades of scientific warnings, not so much.

I have likened geoengineering to a dangerous, never tested, course of chemotherapy prescribed to treat a condition curable through diet and exercise — or, in this case, greenhouse gas emissions reduction. If your actual doctor were to prescribe such a treatment, you would get another doctor.

The media likes geoengineering stories because they are clickbait involving all sorts of eye-popping science fiction (non)solutions to climate change that don’t actually require anything of their readers (or humanity) except infinite credulousness. And so Newsweek informs us that adorable ants might solve the problem or maybe phytoplankton can if given Popeye-like superstrength with a diet of iron or, as we’ll see, maybe we humans can, if we allow ourselves to be turned into hobbit-like creatures. The only thing they left out was time-travel.

The author does talk to an unusually sober expert supporter of geoengineering, climatologist Ken Caldeira. Caldeira knows that of all the proposed geoengineering strategies, only one makes even the tiniest bit of sense — and he knows even that one doesn’t make much sense. That would be the idea of spewing vast amounts of tiny particulates (sulfate aerosols) into the atmosphere to block sunlight, mimicking the global temperature drops that follow volcanic eruptions. But they note the caveat: “that said, Caldeira doesn’t believe any method of geoengineering is really a good solution to fighting climate change — we can’t test them on a large scale, and implementing them blindly could be dangerous.”

Actually, it’s worse than that. As Caldeira told me in 2009, “If we keep emitting greenhouse gases with the intent of offsetting the global warming with ever increasing loadings of particles in the stratosphere, we will be heading to a planet with extremely high greenhouse gases and a thick stratospheric haze that we would need to maintain more-or-less indefinitely. This seems to be a dystopic world out of a science fiction story.”

And the scientific literature has repeatedly explained that the aerosol-cooling strategy — or indeed any large-scale effort to manipulate sunlight — is very dangerous. Just last month, the UK Guardian reported that the aerosol strategy “risks ‘terrifying’ consequences including droughts and conflicts,” according to recent studies.

“Billions of people would suffer worse floods and droughts if technology was used to block warming sunlight, the research found.”

And remember, this dystopic world where billions suffer is the best geoengineering strategy out there. And it still does nothing to stop the catastrophic acidification of the ocean.

There simply is no rational or moral substitute for aggressive greenhouse gas cuts. But Newsweek quickly dispenses with that supposedly “seismic shift in what has become a global value system” so it can move on to its absurdist “reimagining of what it means to be human”:

In a paper released in 2012, S. Matthew Liao, a philosopher and ethicist at New York University, and some colleagues proposed a series of human-engineering projects that could make our very existence less damaging to the Earth. Among the proposals were a patch you can put on your skin that would make you averse to the flavor of meat (cattle farms are a notorious producer of the greenhouse gas methane), genetic engineering in utero to make humans grow shorter (smaller people means fewer resources used), technological reengineering of our eyeballs to make us better at seeing at night (better night vision means lower energy consumption)….

Yes, let’s turn humans into hobbits (who are “about 3 feet tall” and “their night vision is excellent“). Anyone can see that could easily be done for billions of people in the timeframe needed to matter. Who could imagine any political or practical objection?

Now you may be thinking that Newsweek can’t possibly be serious devoting ink to such nonsense. But if not, how did the last two paragraphs of the article make it to print:

Geoengineering, Liao argues, doesn’t address the root cause. Remaking the planet simply attempts to counteract the damage that’s been done, but it does nothing to stop the burden humans put on the planet. “Human engineering is more of an upstream solution,” says Liao. “You get right to the source. If we’re smaller on average, then we can have a smaller footprint on the planet. You’re looking at the source of the problem.”

It might be uncomfortable for humans to imagine intentionally getting smaller over generations or changing their physiology to become averse to meat, but why should seeding the sky with aerosols be any more acceptable? In the end, these are all actions we would enact only in worst-case scenarios. And when we’re facing the possible devastation of all mankind, perhaps a little humanity-wide night vision won’t seem so dramatic.

Memo to Newsweek: We are already facing the devastation of all mankind. And science has already provided the means of our “rescue,” the means of reducing “the burden humans put on the planet” — the myriad carbon-free energy technologies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Perhaps LED lighting would make a slightly more practical strategy than reengineering our eyeballs, though perhaps not one dramatic enough to inspire one of your cover stories.

As Caldeira himself has said elsewhere of geoengineering, “I think that 99% of our effort to avoid climate change should be put on emissions reduction, and 1% of our effort should be looking into these options.” So perhaps Newsweek will consider 99 articles on the real solutions before returning to the magical thinking of Middle Earth.

Brasil chega a Lima na contramão dos esforços globais contra mudanças do clima (Observatório do Clima)

03/12/2014UncategorizedCOP, Diplomacia climática, IPCC, Lima, Mudanças climáticasrenzotaddei

Cop20lima
02/12/2014 – 12h35

por Bruno Toledo, do Observatório do Clima

Com emissões em alta, mesmo com baixo crescimento econômico, Brasil começa a COP20 numa posição mais frágil que em outras conferências do clima.

A capital do Peru será a capital global dos esforços contra as mudança do clima pelas próximas duas semanas. Começou nesta segunda a 20ª Conferência das Partes (COP 20) da Convenção-Quadro das Nações Unidas sobre Mudança do Clima, em espaço montado no quartel general do Exército peruano em Lima. Pelos próximos 14 dias, negociadores de mais de 190 países se reunirão com a dura missão de desatar os nós que impedem o enfrentamento global efetivo das mudanças climáticas.

O principal objetivo da COP 20, sem dúvidas, será avançar na estrutura do futuro acordo climático internacional que sucederá o Protocolo de Quioto a partir de 2021, mas que precisa ter seu texto finalizado e aprovado pelos governos até a próxima Conferência do Clima, que acontece daqui a 12 meses em Paris.

O cenário em Lima é favorável para esse avanço. Os dois maiores emissores de gases de efeito estufa do planeta, a China e os Estados Unidos, apresentaram compromissos importantes rumo a uma redução substancial de suas emissões nas próximas décadas. Mesmo que esses anúncios não sejam tão ambiciosos como o necessário, eles são sinais importantes da disposição desses países para enfrentar o desafio climático.

Outro motivo para otimismo é o avanço na capitalização do Fundo Climático Verde (GFC, sigla em inglês), que conseguiu angariar US$ 9,7 bilhões, graças às doações recentes de países como Espanha, Estados Unidos e Reino Unido. O valor praticamente bate a meta prevista pela UNFCCC para o final de 2014, e esses recursos serão importantes para financiar ações urgentes em adaptação e mitigação das mudanças do clima em países em desenvolvimento.

Por fim, o ímpeto dado pela Cúpula do Clima, realizada em setembro passado em Nova York, criou um movimento importante para a sociedade civil internacional pressionar os governos por ações climáticas mais ambiciosas e efetivas. Mesmo que os resultados concretos da Cúpula tenham sido mais simbólicos que práticos, o encontro de chefes de governo em Nova York ajudou a colocar o tema climático novamente na agenda mainstream da política internacional e incentivou a mobilização de milhões de pessoas pelo mundo.

Se o contexto global é favorável para avanços práticos, o contexto brasileiro não poderia ser tão contrastante. Como o Observatório do Clima apontou, a partir dos dados do Sistema de Estimativa de Emissões de Gases do Efeito Estufa (SEEG), as emissões brasileiras aumentaram 7,8% em 2013, mesmo com o baixo crescimento apresentado pelo país no ano passado (2,6%).

Entre 2012 e 2013, a Amazônia sofreu com o aumento da taxa de desmatamento em 29%, que interrompeu uma sequência de quase uma década de reduções significativas. No ano passado, as emissões associadas ao desmatamento subiram 16%, de acordo com o Sistema de Estimativas de Emissões de Gases do Efeito Estufa (SEEG) do Observatório do Clima. Mesmo com o anúncio recente dos dados do PRODES, que apontam para uma redução de 18% na taxa entre 2013 e 2014, informações do DETER e do Imazon já apontam para uma retomada acelerada do desmatamento nos últimos meses, o que pode colocar em risco a pequena recuperação apontada pelo PRODES.

Além disso, quase 70% dos investimentos federais em energia nos próximos anos estão direcionados para fontes fósseis em energia, que vão inevitavelmente sujar nossa matriz energética. Exemplo recente do retrocesso disso foi o leilão de energia realizado na semana passada, que ressuscitou o carvão mineral, incluindo na base da matriz energética.

Esse contexto doméstico fragiliza a posição brasileira nas negociações climáticas, com reflexos imediatos no processo diplomático atual. Por exemplo, o governo brasileiro cogita encaminhar suas contribuições nacionalmente definidas, base para a conclusão dos futuros compromissos do Brasil no novo acordo climático, apenas no final do primeiro semestre de 2015, meses depois do deadline original recomendado por decisão da COP 19, realizada em Varsóvia no ano passado. Ou seja, o Brasil está abrindo mão da sua condição de liderança política em clima, esperando para ver o que outros países farão para depois definir o que podemos fazer.

Enquanto o Brasil retrocede, as mudanças do clima já fazem parte da realidade dos brasileiros, impondo custos altíssimos para o país, devido ao clima extremo – particularmente nos últimos meses, com a estiagem que aflige o Sudeste e a seca que atinge todo o semiárido do Nordeste há alguns anos.

O Observatório do Clima espera que o Brasil assuma uma posição condizente com aquilo que já apresentou em conferências passadas, alinhada com aquilo que se espera do país nesse momento importantíssimo das negociações climáticas. Somos um dos maiores emissores do planeta e temos condição para avançar efetivamente em esforços mais substanciais de redução de nossas emissões – por exemplo, reduzindo o desmatamento amazônico para zero, ampliando os investimentos para agricultura de baixo carbono e revertendo a queda da participação de fontes renováveis em nossa matriz energética, através de investimentos maciços em renováveis modernas. Se colocarmos o avanço em nossos esforços climáticos como estratégico para o Brasil, isso será positivo para a competitividade de nossa indústria e para a geração de novos empregos em setores importantes como energia solar, hoje estratégicos para países como China e Estados Unidos.

* Publicado originalmente no site Observatório do Clima.

(Observatório do Clima)

January-October 2014 temperatures highest on record (Science Daily)

03/12/2014UncategorizedDesastre, Incerteza, Meteorologia, Mudanças climáticas, Previsãorenzotaddei

Date: November 29, 2014

Source: World Meteorological Organization

Summary: The global average temperature over land and ocean surfaces for January to October 2014 was the highest on record, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It said October was the hottest since records began in 1880.

The global average temperature over land and ocean surfaces for January to October 2014 was the highest on record, according to NOAA. October was the hottest since records began in 1880. Credit: NOAA

The global average temperature over land and ocean surfaces for January to October 2014 was the highest on record, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It said October was the hottest since records began in 1880.

NOAA said the combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January-October period was 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average of 14.1°C (57.4°F). For October, it was 0.74°C (1.33°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F).

The high October temperature was driven by warmth across the globe over both the land and ocean surfaces and was fairly evenly distributed between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The Southern Hemisphere had its hottest October on record and the Northern Hemisphere its third warmest.

October marked the third consecutive month and fifth of the past six with a record high global temperature for its respective month (July was fourth highest).

The Tokyo Climate Center, which is a WMO Regional Climate Centre, also reported that October was the hottest on record. The record was also confirmed by data from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

WMO uses a combination of datasets to compile its annual Statement on the Status of the Global Climate. Additional information is drawn from the ERA-Interim reanalysis-based data set maintained by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

Further information: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/10

Education is key to climate adaptation (Science Daily)

03/12/2014UncategorizedEducação, Mudanças climáticasrenzotaddei

Date: November 27, 2014

Source: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Summary: According to new research, education makes people less vulnerable to natural disasters such as floods, landslides, and storms that are expected to intensify with climate change.

Given that some climate change is already unavoidable–as just confirmed by the new IPCC report–investing in empowerment through universal education should be an essential element in climate change adaptation efforts, which so far focus mostly in engineering projects, according to a new study from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) published in the journal Science.

The article draws upon extensive analysis of natural disaster data for 167 countries over the past four decades as well as a number of studies carried out in individual countries and regions, published last year in a special issue of the journal Ecology and Society.

The research shows that in many cases–particularly where the exact consequences of climate change are still unclear–educational expansion could be a better investment in protecting people from the impacts than conventional investments such as building sea walls, dams, irrigation systems, and other infrastructure.

“Education is key in reducing disaster fatalities and enhancing adaptive capacity,” says Wolfgang Lutz, Director of IIASA’s World Population Program and Founding Director of the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, a collaboration of IIASA, the Austrian Academy of Sciences, and the Vienna University of Economics, who wrote the article together with IIASA researchers Raya Muttarak and Erich Striessnig, who have dual affiliations with the Vienna Institute of Demography and the Vienna University of Economics and Business, respectively.

“Our research shows that education is more important than GDP in reducing mortality from natural disasters. We also demonstrated that under rapid development and educational expansion across the globe, disaster fatalities will be reduced substantially,” says Muttarak.

Climate models project that extreme weather events such as hurricanes are likely to increase with climate change. And with rising sea levels, floods will become a greater danger in low-lying coastal areas. So researchers from IIASA’s World Population Program launched a major research project to explore the connections between fatality rates in such disasters, education levels, and other potential factors that could contribute to resilience such as wealth and health.

Previous research had shown that education plays a major role in development, including poverty alleviation and economic growth. In regard to climate change adaption, “Education directly improves knowledge, the ability to understand and process information, and risk perception. It also indirectly enhances socioeconomic status and social capital. These are qualities and skills useful for surviving and coping with disasters,” says Muttarak.

The new study shows that education is the key factor in enhancing adaptive capacity to already unavoidable climate change. This insight is also reflected in the new generation of IPCC-related scenarios, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) which were developed by IIASA researchers in collaboration with other leading global change research institutes to jointly capture different future socioeconomic challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Using these SSPs, the new study illustrates how alternative future trajectories in education lead to greatly differing numbers of expected deaths due to climate change. Therefore, says Striessnig, “Investment in human capital not only empowers people to achieve desirable socioeconomic outcomes, but it also has a protective function against diverse impacts climate change may have over the coming decades.”

With 100 billion dollars currently pledged per year for climate funding through the Green Climate Fund, the researchers say it is vital to examine where the money would have the greatest impact.

Striessnig says, “We need to think about how to best allocate the funds raised for the adaptation to future climate change. Currently many of these funds are destined to support less flexible engineering projects or agricultural strategies. Such efforts are also vitally important, but in light of the major uncertainties about climate change impacts, it makes sense to invest some of the funds in mechanisms that will empower people to flexibly adapt to whatever changes might occur.”

Journal Reference:

Lutz W, Muttarak R, Striessnig E. Universal education is key to enhanced climate adaptation. Science, 28 November 2014 %u2022 Vol. 346 no. 6213 DOI: 10.1126/science.1257975

Fundo contra o aquecimento atinge US$ 9,7 bi (Folha de S.Paulo)

03/12/2014UncategorizedCOP, Diplomacia climática, IPCC, Lima, Mudanças climáticasrenzotaddei

JC 5075, 1 de dezembro de 2014

Este valor quase bateu a meta de US$ 10 bilhões sugerida pela convenção do clima da ONU

Um fator que também contribuiu para o clima de otimismo com que começa a COP 20 foram as últimas contribuições ao Fundo Verde do Clima, principal mecanismo de financiamento previsto para o acordo a ser firmado.

Veja o texto na íntegra em: http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/cienciasaude/198000-fundo-contra-o-aquecimento-atinge-us-97-bi.shtml

(Rafael Garcia/ Folha de S.Paulo)

* * *

Reunião do clima começa otimista e aflita

China e EUA injetam ânimo na negociação de acordo contra aquecimento, mas promessas ainda são insuficientes

A 20ª conferência do clima da ONU, COP 20, começa hoje em Lima, no Peru, num ambiente que mescla otimismo e aflição. Apesar de um recente acordo entre China e EUA ter dado ao planeta a perspectiva de avançar na redução de emissões de gases do efeito estufa, promessas ainda estão aquém daquilo que a ciência diz ser necessário para evitar um aquecimento “perigoso” do planeta.

Veja o texto na íntegra em: http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/cienciasaude/197998-reuniao-do-clima-comeca-otimista-e-aflita.shtm

(Rafael Garcia/ Folha de S.Paulo)

Outra matéria sobre o assunto em:

O Globo

Em Lima, as bases de um acordo climático em jogo a partir desta segunda
http://oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/sustentabilidade/em-lima-as-bases-de-um-acordo-climatico-em-jogo-partir-desta-segunda-14703871#ixzz3Kecr4CSb

Optimism Faces Grave Realities at Climate Talks (New York Times)

03/12/2014UncategorizedClima, COP, Diplomacia climática, IPCC, Mudanças climáticas, Políticarenzotaddei

By CORAL DAVENPORT

NOV. 30, 2014

WASHINGTON — After more than two decades of trying but failing to forge a global pact to halt climate change, United Nations negotiators gathering in South America this week are expressing a new optimism that they may finally achieve the elusive deal.

Even with a deal to stop the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions, scientists warn, the world will become increasingly unpleasant. Without a deal, they say, the world could eventually become uninhabitable for humans.

For the next two weeks, thousands of diplomats from around the globe will gather in Lima, Peru, for a United Nations summit meeting to draft an agreement intended to stop the global rise of planet-warming greenhouse gases.

The meeting comes just weeks after a landmark announcement by President Obama and President Xi Jinping of China committing the world’s two largest carbon polluters to cuts in their emissions. United Nations negotiators say they believe that advancement could end a longstanding impasse in the climate talks, spurring other countries to sign similar commitments.

A child walking near her home with a coal-fired power plant in the background in Beijing, China. CreditKevin Frayer/Getty Images

But while scientists and climate-policy experts welcome the new momentum ahead of the Lima talks, they warn that it now may be impossible to prevent the temperature of the planet’s atmosphere from rising by 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. According to a large body of scientific research, that is the tipping point at which the world will be locked into a near-term future of drought, food and water shortages, melting ice sheets, shrinking glaciers, rising sea levels and widespread flooding — events that could harm the world’s population and economy.

Recent reports show that there may be no way to prevent the planet’s temperature from rising, given the current level of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere and the projected rate of emissions expected to continue before any new deal is carried out.

That fact is driving the urgency of the Lima talks, which are expected to produce a draft document, to be made final over the next year and signed by world leaders in Paris in December 2015.

While a breach of the 3.6 degree threshold appears inevitable, scientists say that United Nations negotiators should not give up on their efforts to cut emissions. At stake now, they say, is the difference between a newly unpleasant world and an uninhabitable one.

“I was encouraged by the U.S.-China agreement,” said Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University and a member of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a global body of scientists that produces regular reports on the state of climate science. But he expressed doubts that the threshold rise in global temperature could be prevented.

“What’s already baked in are substantial changes to ecosystems, large-scale transformations,” Mr. Oppenheimer said. He cited losses of coral reef systems and ice sheets, and lowering crop yields.

Still, absent a deal, “Things could get a lot worse,” Mr. Oppenheimer added. Beyond the 3.6 degree threshold, he said, the aggregate cost “to the global economy — rich countries as well as poor countries — rises rapidly.”

Felipe Calderón, the chairman of the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate and former president of Mexico. CreditRichard Drew/Associated Press

The objective now, negotiators say, is to stave off atmospheric temperature increases of 4 to 10 degrees by the end of the century; at that point, they say, the planet could become increasingly uninhabitable.

Officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are already reporting that 2014 appears likely to be the warmest year on record.

Since 1992, the United Nations has convened an annual climate change summit meeting aimed at forging a deal to curb greenhouse gases, which are produced chiefly by burning coal for electricity and gasoline for transportation. But previous agreements, such as the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, included no requirements that developing nations, such as India and China, cut their emissions. And until now, the United States has never headed into those summit meetings with a domestic climate change policy in place.

This spring, a report by 13 federal agencies concluded that climate change would harm the American economy by increasing food prices, insurance rates and financial volatility. In China, the central government has sought to quell citizen protests related to coal pollution.

In June, Mr. Obama announced a new Environmental Protection Agency rule forcing major emissions cuts from coal-fired power plants. State Department negotiators took the decision to China, hoping to broker a deal for a similar offer of domestic action. That led to November’s joint announcement in Beijing: The United States will cut its emissions up to 28 percent by 2025, while China will decrease its emissions by or before 2030.

“Our sense is that this will resonate in the broader climate community, give momentum to the negotiations and spur countries to come forward with their own targets,” said Todd Stern, Mr. Obama’s lead climate change negotiator. “The two historic antagonists, the biggest players, announcing they’ll work together.”

Other negotiators agree. “The prospects are so much better than they’ve ever been,” said Felipe Calderón, the former president of Mexico and chairman of the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, a research organization.

The aim of negotiators in Lima is, for the first time, to produce an agreement in which every nation commits to a domestic plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, along the model of the United States-China agreement. Negotiators expect that by next March, governments will make announcements similar to those made by the United States and China.

The idea is for each country to cut emissions at a level that it can realistically achieve, but in keeping with domestic political and economic constraints. World leaders would sign a deal in Paris next year committing all those nations to their cuts, including a provision that the nations regularly reconvene to further reduce their emissions.

The problem is that climate experts say it almost certainly will not happen fast enough. A November report by the United Nations Environment Program concluded that in order to avoid the 3.6 degree increase, global emissions must peak within the next 10 years, going down to half of current levels by midcentury.

But the deal being drafted in Lima will not even be enacted until 2020. And the structure of the emerging deal — allowing each country to commit to what it can realistically achieve, given each nation’s domestic politics — means that the initial cuts by countries will not be as stringent as what scientists say is required.

China’s plan calls for its emissions to peak in 2030. Government officials in India, the world’s third-largest carbon polluter, have said they do not expect to see their emissions decline until at least 2040.

While Mr. Obama has committed to United Nations emissions cuts through 2025, there is no way to know if his successor will continue on that path.

That reality is already setting in among low-lying island nations, like the Marshall Islands, where rising seas are soaking coastal soil, killing crops and contaminating fresh water supplies.

“The groundwater that supports our food crops is becoming inundated with salt,” said Tony A. deBrum, foreign minister of the Marshall Islands. “The green is becoming brown.”

Many island nations are looking into buying farmland in other countries to grow food and, eventually, to relocate their populations.

In Lima, those countries are expected to demand that a final deal include aid to help them adapt to the climate impacts that have already arrived.

Record Drought Reveals Stunning Changes Along Colorado River (National Geographic)

03/12/2014Uncategorizedágua, Desastre, Estados Unidos, Mudanças climáticas, Secarenzotaddei

Lake Powell is at historic lows, offering kayakers new channels to explore but raising the alarm about water.

A boat traces the curves of Reflection Canyon, part of Glen Canyon.

A boat wends its way around the curves of Reflection Canyon, part of Lake Powell in Glen Canyon. The “bathtub rings” on the walls show past water levels.

PHOTOGRAPH BY MICHAEL MELFORD, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC CREATIVE

Jonathan Waterman

for National Geographic

PUBLISHED NOVEMBER 23, 2014

LAKE POWELL, Utah—In early September, at the abandoned Piute Farms marina on a remote edge of southern Utah’s Navajo reservation, we watched a ten-foot (three-meter) waterfall plunging off what used to be the end of the San Juan River.

Until 1990, this point marked the smooth confluence of the river with Lake Powell, one of the largest reservoirs in the U.S. But the lake has shrunk so much due to the recent drought that this waterfall has emerged, with sandy water as thick as a milkshake.

My partner DeEdda McLean and I had come to this area west of Mexican Hat, Utah, to kayak acrossLake Powell, a reservoir formed by the confluence of the San Juan and the Colorado Rivers and the holding power of Glen Canyon Dam, which lies just over the border in Arizona. Yet in place of a majestic reservoir, we saw only the thin ribbon of a reemergent river channel, which had been inundated for most of the past three decades by the lake. We called this new channel the San Powell, combining the name of the river and the lake.

Map of the Lake Mead and Lake Powell regions.

VIRGINIA W. MASON, NG STAFF SOURCE: BUREAU OF RECLAMATION, NATIONAL PARK SERVICE

We had also come to see firsthand how drought is changing the landscapes of the desert Southwest. Here, judging by the lack of conservation reform, water has seemed to be largely taken for granted. But our recent float suggests that profound changes may be in store for the region. (See “The American Nile.”)

Sweating in the desert heat, we loaded our 15-foot (5-meter) kayaks with two weeks’ worth of food and ten gallons of water—enough to last us two days. Drinking from the silty river or fecal-contaminated areas of Lake Powell frequented by houseboats was not an option (Glen Canyon Recreation Area, which includes the reservoir, is visited by more than two million people a year). The contours of our journey—where we camped, our hiking destinations, and how far we paddled each day—would be defined by the need to find potable springs.

Like bicyclists shunning the interstate, many kayakers have avoided Lake Powell ever since the builders of Glen Canyon Dam finished flooding 186 miles (300 kilometers) of the Colorado River Valley in 1980. The reservoir was named after John Wesley Powell, the National Geographic Society co-founder who first paddled most of the Colorado River and who later, in public office, tried to limit population growth in the arid Southwest. The dams and the enormous reservoirs that were later built in the desert would have horrified him.

Motorboaters call Powell’s lake the “Jewel of the Colorado” because of its unnatural emerald hue—Glen Canyon Dam now captures the silt that used to make the Colorado, after its confluence with the San Juan, the most colorful river in the West. Paddlers call it “Lake Foul” for the noise and stench of outboard engines.

In 2011, Lake Powell contained plenty of water.

PHOTOGRAPH BY JON WATERMAN

“Extreme” Drought

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 11 of the past 14 years have been drought years in the Southwest, with the drought ranging from “severe” to “extreme” to “exceptional,” depending on the year and the area.

At “full pool,” Lake Powell spans 254 square miles (660 square kilometers)—a quarter the size of Rhode Island. The lightning bolt-shaped canyon shore stretches 1,960 miles (3,150 kilometers), 667 miles (1,073 kilometers) longer than the West Coast of the continental United States.

The reservoir serves multiple purposes. It stores water from the Upper Basin states of Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, and Colorado so that the Lower Basin states of California, Nevada, and Arizona can receive their allotted half of the Colorado River; it creates electricity through hydro-generators at Glen Canyon Dam; and it helps prevent flooding below Hoover Dam (240 miles or 390 kilometers downstream), the site of North America’s largest reservoir, Lake Mead.

11 of the past 14 years have been drought years in the Southwest.

The irony, as most students of this river’s history now know, is that the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation created these enormous reservoirs during the wettest period of the past millennium. According to modern tree-ring data (unavailable during the dam-building epoch), the previous millennium experienced droughts much more severe than those in the first 14 years of the 21st century. Many climate scientists think the Southwest is again due for a megadrought. The Bureau of Reclamation’s analysis of over a hundred climate projections suggests the Colorado River Basin will be much drier by the end of this century than it was in the past one, with the median projection showing 45 percent less runoff into the river.

Last winter was snowy in the Rockies, and runoff was at 96 percent of the historical average. Because of the previous years of drought, however, Lake Powell had risen to only half full by fall.

But Lake Mead was in even worse shape. This year it plunged to 39 percent of capacity, a low that has not been matched since Hoover Dam began backing up the Colorado River in 1935. In August, the Bureau of Reclamation announced that Lake Powell would release an additional 10 percent of its waters, or 2.5 trillion gallons, to Lake Mead. That release will lower the water in Lake Powell by about three feet (one meter).

By 2014, Lake Powell was full of plant life and silt.

PHOTOGRAPH BY JON WATERMAN

Rise of Ancient Ruins?

Fifty miles (80 kilometers) up from the Colorado River confluence, on what is commonly known as the San Juan River Arm of Lake Powell, we kept poking our paddles-cum-measuring sticks toward the shallow river bottom, shouting: “Good-bye, reservoir! Hello, San Powell River!” In a four-mile-per-hour, opaque current, always hunting for the deepest river braids, we breezed past fields of still-viscous, former lake-bottom silt deposits. Stepping out of the boat here would have been an invitation to disappear in quicksand.

We paddled downstream, looking for the edge of the reservoir. We passed caterwauling great blue herons, a yipping coyote, and squawking conspiracies of ravens. By late afternoon, dehydrated by the desert sun, we stopped at one of the few quicksand-free tent sites above the newly emerged river: a sandy yet dry creek bed draining the sacred Navajo Mountain.

We slept in the perfume of blooming nightshades; wild burros brayed throughout the night. Here, more than a dozen miles below our put-in at a marina that once served the reservoir, the swirling “San Powell” River continued to sigh 15 feet (5 meters) below our tent.

In October 2011, when the reservoir was at 70 percent of its capacity, I had stood on a rocky shore above where our tent now stood and photographed Lake Powell’s Zahn Bay here in the San Juan River Valley. It’s dry now, and the lake bottom is a cracked series of chocolate-colored hummocks, surrounded by the invasive Russian thistle and tamarisk, native willows and sunflowers, and pockmarked by burro hooves.

For five days, we wouldn’t see a human footprint or hear the ubiquitous whine of Lake Powell boat traffic.

Half full, the amazing vessel that is Lake Powell has lost 4.4 trillion gallons of water in the recent drought.

By day three, desperate to refill our water bottles, we found a newly created marsh where the river thinned before dropping into the deeper reservoir. Unlike anything I’d experienced elsewhere on the sterile Lake Powell, abundant small fish and aquatic life supported American pelicans, mallards, coots, mergansers, green herons, hawks, and kingfishers. The silty river is also sheltering endangered razorback suckers and pikeminnows that are preyed upon by non-native fish in the clearer waters of the lake.

Within a decade or two at the most, if the drought persists, we can expect to see hundreds of inundated ancient Anasazi ruins rising above the drying reservoir. Archaeologists will be delighted, just as kayakers like us delight at the reemergence of a river. But more than 36 million people in and around the Colorado River Basin depend on this vanishing water.

As we finally reached a body of water wide enough to be properly called the reservoir, many miles below where we had expected to find it, we continued paddling in a chocolate pudding of ground-up river debris. Some 94 feet (29 meters) above our craned heads, on the red sandstone walls of the reservoir, we saw the “bathtub rings”—the stains left by river minerals in wetter times.

That night we did a quick calculation: Half full, the amazing vessel that is Lake Powell has lost 4.4 trillion gallons of water in the recent drought; the deeper vessel of Lake Mead at 39 percent capacity has lost 5.6 trillion gallons of water.

Aerial view looking down on Lake Powell and the Glen Canyon dam.

This aerial view of Lake Powell and Glen Canyon Dam was taken in 2009.

PHOTOGRAPH BY PETER MCBRIDE, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC CREATIVE

Big Impact

As central California (beyond the reach of Colorado River water) has already been hamstrung by an even more exceptional drought, many farms and dairy operations have shut down, rationing has begun, homeowners are being fined for watering their lawns, and the state has begun relying on finite groundwater supplies. And as extensive farm networks are served by the Colorado River, it is likely that nationwide produce prices will soon begin to rise.

What’s next? As Lakes Powell and Mead continue to plummet, officials are now predicting rationing by 2017 for the junior Colorado River water-rights holders of Nevada and Arizona.

In the decades that follow, invasive flora and fauna will colonize dried-out reservoir bottoms. River running and reservoir boating may end. Those will seem like minor issues compared with the survival of cities like Los Angeles, Denver, Phoenix, and Las Vegas, all of which depend on the Colorado River. There is talk of diverting more water to the Colorado Basin users from places such as the Missouri River. A massive desalination plant is being built on the California coast. But such solutions won’t come cheap.

Officials are now predicting rationing by 2017 for the junior Colorado River water-rights holders of Nevada and Arizona.

We can hope for agricultural reform, such as irrigation changes, more aggressive crop rotation and fallowing, reverting to less water-intensive produce, or dismantling of the water-intensive southwestern dairy industry. And the exponential population growth of the region—as Powell warned at the end of the 19th century—will have to be addressed. (See “Arizona Irrigators Share Water With Desert River.”)

By mid-September, we reached the speedboat-accessible region of Lake Powell. Motorboaters often stopped to ask if we needed help. Many of these boaters offered us iced beer or bottled water imported from distant regions of the country.

Each day, for 14 days, except during two violent but brief rainstorms, the temperature climbed into the 90s. Often dizzy, and even exhausted from the heat, we parceled out our water, cup by cup, consuming over four gallons daily. And every other day, we walked or paddled miles out of our way so that we could enact a time-honored practice of desert cultures like the Anasazi’s, which vanished in the 13th-century megadrought.

Every other day, we uncapped our empty bottles while honoring this ritual of aridity: Bowing under shaded cliffs at moss-covered seeps, we pressed our lips onto cold sandstone walls and drank those precious drops until our bellies were full.

http://player.d.nationalgeographic.com/players/ngsvideo/share/?feed=http://feed.theplatform.com/f/ngs/dCCn2isYZ9N9&guid=00000149-679a-ddff-ab59-f7db8ef50000&link=http://video.nationalgeographic.com/video/

This short film by Pete McBride explores the history and meaning of the Colorado River.

Jonathan Waterman is a writer and photographer based in Colorado. In 2010 National Geographic published his book Running Dry: A Journey From Source to Sea Down the Colorado River. He is also the co-author, with Pete McBride, of The Colorado River: Flowing Through Conflict.See his previous work “The American Nile.”

Get involved with the effort to restore the Colorado River throughChange the Course, a partnership of National Geographic and other organizations.

O Brasil secou (Super Interessante)

03/12/2014Uncategorizedágua, Desastre, Mudanças climáticas, Previsão, São Paulo, Secarenzotaddei

A falta d’água se alastrou pelo país, sintoma das mudanças climáticas e do desmatamento na Amazônia, cada vez mais debilitada. Nos aproximamos de um futuro desértico e a culpa é toda nossa

por Camila Almeida

Novembro 2014

Em 2014, não choveu. Pelo menos não quanto deveria. Os índices de chuvas apresentam déficit, os reservatórios minguaram a percentuais críticos, a nascente do Rio São Francisco secou pela primeira vez na história. Esses eventos extremos estavam previstos pelos estudiosos das mudanças climáticas, causadas quase exclusivamente pela atividade humana, especialmente pela queima de combustíveis fósseis. Mas outro fator está agravando esse quadro: o desmatamento. A Amazônia é a responsável por manter úmido todo o continente, e sua depredação influencia diretamente no clima.

A floresta funciona como uma fábrica de chuvas. Por cima das nossas cabeças, há imensos rios seguindo seu curso, levando nuvens carregadas por onde passam. São os rios voadores, que começaram a ser estudados em 2006, numa parceria entre o aviador francês Gérard Moss e o engenheiro agrônomo Antonio Donato Nobre, do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). Sobrevoando a Amazônia, eles descobriram todo o seu potencial de bombeamento de água e traçaram o curso que os rios voadores seguem pelo País. Esta capacidade da floresta de exportar umidade é um dos cinco segredos da floresta, poeticamente explicados no relatório O Futuro Climático da Amazônia, publicado recentemente por Nobre.

Nossa água vem da Amazônia
Entenda o processo de transpiração da floresta e a formação das nuvens sobre ela. Ao lado, conheça o percurso dos rios voadores e como eles levam chuvas por todo o continente.

O fluxo dos rios voadores é mais intenso no verão, estação em que chove na maior parte do País. Isso acontece graças à inclinação da Terra nesta época do ano, que favorece a entrada dos ventos marítimos na América do Sul. Mas há mais uma vantagem geográfica que garante esse circuito: a Cordilheira dos Andes, localizada a oeste da floresta. O imenso paredão faz com que os ventos não passem direto e deixem o resto do Brasil sem umidade. De acordo
com o físico Philip Fearnside, do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA), é no
começo do ano que os rios voadores reabastecem as fontes de água e reservatórios brasileiros. Ao se chocarem contra a Serra da Mantiqueira e da Canastra, no Sudeste, enchem a nascente de vários rios importantes, como o São Francisco. “Esta região é a caixa dágua do Brasil”, avalia Fearnside. “Se não chover na época em que tem que chover, os reservatórios
não serão recarregados ao longo do ano”, completa. Esse tem sido o drama em 2014.

Desmatamento que vai, volta

Poder contar com a maior floresta tropical do mundo, inclusive em relação aos recursos hídricos, é um privilégio. Pouquíssimo valorizado. Nos últimos 40 anos, derrubamos 42 bilhões de árvores. Além disso, devido às queimadas, existe mais de 1 milhão de km² de floresta morta, degradada. O que não se imaginava é que uma revanche em forma de seca chegaria tão rápido. “Hoje, estamos vivendo a reciprocidade da inconsequência”, atesta Nobre. Há mais de 20 anos, estudos alertavam para esse perigo. Em 1991, o climatologista Carlos Nobre, irmão de Antonio e também do INPE, comandou uma simulação para avaliar os impactos no clima da mudança do uso da terra. Constataram que, se a floresta fosse substituída por plantações ou pastagens, a temperatura média da superfície aumentaria cerca de 2,5 ºC, a evapotranspiração das plantas diminuiria 30% e as chuvas cairiam 20%. Também se previa uma ampliação das estações secas na área amazônica. Hoje, com quase metade da floresta original danificada, tais efeitos parecem ter vindo à tona.
“O desmatamento zero é para ontem. Chegamos a níveis climáticos críticos. Precisamos começar a replantar o que já perdemos”, aponta Antonio Nobre. Apesar da urgência, as perspectivas não são animadoras. Só na região amazônica, há mais de 40 projetos do Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento do Governo Federal só no quesito geração de energia. São usinas, barragens e outras medidas que causam inundações e corte de árvores e que afetam diretamente populações indígenas. Os projetos de estradas também são preocupantes. A recuperação da Rodovia Manaus-Porto Velho (BR-319), abandonada desde a década de 1980 por falta de manuntenção, também consta no PAC. De acordo com Philip Fearnside, o projeto é um risco para a Amazônia. “Uma estrada valoriza demais a terra, e especulação gera desmatamento e favorece a grilagem”, explica. O mesmo acontece com a Rodovia Santarém-Cuiabá (BR-163), com mais de 1.700 km de extensão.

“A estrada vai ser recuperada para facilitar o transporte da soja produzida no Mato Grosso”, aponta Fearnside, sobre uma das áreas amazônicas que mais sofrem com o agronegócio. “A terra valoriza tanto que pecuaristas estão vendendo suas terras para produtores de soja do Sul. Por sua vez, isso tem aumentado muito o desmatamento no Pará, com a liberação de terrenos para a criação de gado desses pecuaristas”, critica o especialista. Ele também destaca o fortalecimento da bancada ruralista no Congresso, após as eleições deste ano.

Desmatamento e degradação:

Clima em crise

Neste verão, os rios voadores não avançaram sobre o Sudeste; tampouco as frentes frias. A ilha de calor instalada sobre a região, característica de uma urbanização extrema, cria bloqueios que afastam as chuvas. Por isso, a água esborrou na borda dessa bolha quente, gerando chuvas acima da média no Sul e países vizinhos. Hoje, há registros de seca em todos os Estados brasileiros. Em alguns deles, a seca é “excepcional”, ainda mais grave do que a “extrema”. O quadro já era grave no ano passado, quando o Nordeste viveu a pior seca dos últimos 50 anos, inserindo o Brasil no mapa de eventos climáticos extremos, da Organização Mundial de Meteorologia.

De acordo com o físico especialista em ciências atmosféricas Alexandre Araújo Costa, da Universidade Estadual do Ceará, o agravamento de secas e das cheias está relacionado ao aumento da temperatura na atmosfera. Aquecida, ela se expande, fazendo com que seja necessário reunir mais vapor dágua para formar nuvens. “Esse processo demanda mais tempo, portanto tende a prolongar os períodos de estiagem. Por outro lado, as nuvens se formam a partir de uma quantidade maior de vapor dágua, fazendo com que os eventos de precipitações se tornem mais intensos. Um planeta mais quente é um planeta de extremos”, explica.

Para a filósofa e ecologista Déborah Danowski, que lançou recentemente o livro Há mundo por vir? Ensaio sobre os medos e os fins, com seu marido e antropólogo Eduardo Viveiros de Castro, entramos num caminho sem volta. “A crise climática não pode mais ser evitada. Se cortássemos agora as emissões de CO₂, a Terra ainda iria se aquecer aproximadamente 1 ºC. Isso porque já jogamos no ar uma quantidade tão grande, que muito dele ainda nem foi absorvido”, aponta. O que não quer dizer que não haja muito o que fazer. Para ela, o primeiro passo é repensar os modelos econômicos de crescimento e consumo. “O que nos cabe é tentar mitigar as causas que levam ao aprofundamento das mudanças climáticas e, ao mesmo tempo, nos adaptar à vida em um mundo mais difícil ecologicamente.”

Estamos todos ilhados
Seja pelo excesso de calor ou pelas enchentes. Mais filosoficamente: não temos saída para o clima. Os eventos extremos parecem estar se tornando uma realidade no Brasil.

Leaked: The Oil Lobby’s Conspiracy to Kill Off California’s Climate Law (Bloomberg Business Week)

03/12/2014UncategorizedCalifórnia, Conservadorismo, Lobby das petroleiras, Mudanças climáticas, Negacionismorenzotaddei

By Brad Wieners November 25, 2014

Photograph by David Bro/Zuma Press

Looking south over Los Angeles and the 101 Freeway, with the morning haze and smog on Jan. 28

You remember Fillmore. He’s the resident hippie of Radiator Springs in the Pixar blockbuster Cars. Much to the chagrin of his neighbor, Sarge the Army Jeep, Fillmore greets each new day with Jimi Hendrix’s Woodstock rendition of A Star Spangled Banner—“respect the classics, man”—and is quick with a conspiracy theory about why biofuels never stood a chance at America’s gas pumps. Perfectly voiced by the late, great George Carlin, Fillmore has a slight paranoiac edge, as if his intake of marijuana may exceed what’s medically indicated.

Well, as they say, it’s not paranoia if they really are out to delay, rewrite, or kill off a meaningful effort to reduce the build-up of carbon in the Earth’s atmosphere. A Powerpoint (MSFT) deck now being circulated by climate activists—a copy of which was sent to Bloomberg Businessweek—suggests that there is a conspiracy. Or, if you prefer, a highly coordinated, multistate coalition that does not want California to succeed at moving off fossil fuels because that might set a nasty precedent for everyone else.

Created by the Western States Petroleum Association (WSPA), one of the most powerful oil and gas lobbies in the U.S., the slides and talking points comes from a Nov. 11 presentation to the Washington Research Council. The Powerpoint deck details a plan to throttle AB 32 (also known as the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006) and steps to thwart low carbon fuel standards (known as LCFS) in California, Oregon, and Washington State. Northwest Public Radio appears to have been the first to confirm the authenticity of the deck, which Bloomberg Businessweek did as well, with WSPA spokesman Tupper Hull.

STORY: The Fossil Fuel Divestment Movement Takes Harvard to Court

Specifically, the deck from a presentation by WSPA President Catherine Reheis-Boyd lays out the construction of what environmentalists contend is an elaborate “astroturf campaign.” Groups with names such as Oregon Climate Change Campaign, Washington Consumers for Sound Fuel Policy, and AB 32 Implementation Group are made to look and sound like grassroots citizen-activists while promoting oil industry priorities and actually working against the implementation of AB 32.

The deck also reveals how WSPA seized on a line from a California Air Resources Board memo that the cap-and-trade program for gas and diesel that goes into effect on Jan. 1, 2015, may affect gas prices in order to launch an ad campaign warning of a “hidden” gas tax that devious Sacramento pols are sneaking through.

“The environmental community is used to sky-is-falling analysis from fossil fuel interests in response to clean energy initiatives, so that part isn’t surprising,” says Tim O’Connor, a senior attorney at the Environmental Defense Fund, to whom I sent the deck for comment. “But it’s eye-opening to see the lengths [the WSPA] has gone to push back rather than move forward. I don’t think anybody knew how cross-jurisdictional, cross-border, and extensive their investment is in creating a false consumer backlash against [climate legislation].”

STORY: Ethanol, Fighting for Its Life, Gets a Temporary Reprieve

In California, O’Connor points out, “we have 70 percent voter approval on clean energy alternatives, so it’s offensive and atrocious they’re using these supposed everyday citizens—who are really paid advertisers—to change the public discourse.”

Reheis-Boyd’s Powerpoint deck, entitled “WSPA Priority Issues,” starts by announcing that these are the “the best of times.” Crude oil production in the U.S. is higher than it has been since 1997, with imports subsequently reduced to a 20-year low, according to the American Petroleum Institute. The next six slides describe why these are also “the worst of times” and include images of demonstrators protesting the Keystone XL oil pipeline, demanding government action on climate change, and pictures of professor-cum-activist Bill McKibben and billionaire Tom Steyer, with the latter quoted as saying he wants to “destroy these people”—i.e., people like the members of WSPA.

Then there’s a slide with all the different groups that WSPA has funded to make it seem as if there’s a broad group in three states opposing a series of initiatives to reduce carbon pollution from fossil fuels. The most clever of these is the “Stop the Hidden Gas Tax!” campaign. Who, after all, wants that?

BLOG: Thank Germany for Falling Prices of Solar Panels and Wind Turbines

“Let me be clear,” says Hull, the WSPA spokesman. “We did not oppose AB 32 when it passed. We believe it’s good to have the reduction of greenhouse gases as a goal. We support that goal.” In the years since, he says, “hundreds of pages of regulations have been added to what had been a page-and-a-half document, and we do object to many of the additions.” What’s more, Hull says, “we have a legitimate concern over what will happen when the cap-and-trade program goes into effect for gas and diesel.”

Aquecimento global pode minar luta contra a pobreza, alerta Banco Mundial (Carta Capital)

03/12/2014UncategorizedDesastre, Mudanças climáticas, Pobreza, Previsãorenzotaddei

7/11/2014 – 11h38

por Redação da Deutsche Welle

Em novo relatório sobre mudanças climáticas, instituição prevê grave impacto na agricultura. No Brasil, a produção de soja pode ser reduzida em 70% até 2050

As mudanças climáticas podem levar a retrocessos nos esforços para derrotar a pobreza extrema em todo o mundo, advertiu o Banco Mundial neste domingo 23, ao divulgar um relatório sobre os impactos do aquecimento global.

No documento, intitulado Reduzam o calor: enfrentando a nova normalidade climática (em tradução livre), o banco afirma que elevações bruscas de temperatura devem reduzir profundamente a produtividade nas lavouras e o abastecimento de água em muitas áreas.

O relatório, que foca em impactos regionais específicos do aquecimento global, prevê efeitos no Brasil. Um aumento de até 2 °C na temperatura média em relação aos tempos pré-industriais levaria a uma redução da produção agrícola do país – de até 70% para a soja e 50% para o trigo em 2050, diz o documento.

O Banco Mundial estima que, em 2050, a temperatura média seja 1,5 °C mais alta do que a registrada na era pré-industrial, com base no impacto das emissões de gases de efeito estufa do passado e atualmente.

“Sem uma ação forte e rápida, o aquecimento poderia exceder 1,5 °C ou 2 °C, e o impacto decorrente poderia piorar significativamente a pobreza intra e intergeracional em várias regiões do mundo”, diz o relatório.

Quanto ao nível do mar, o documento afirma que este continuará subindo por séculos, visto que as grandes capas de gelo da Groenlândia e da Antártica vêm derretendo lentamente. Se as temperaturas se mantiverem nos níveis atuais, os mares subirão 2,3 metros nos próximos 2 mil anos, aponta o estudo.

Entre outros efeitos citados, cidades andinas estariam ameaçadas pelo derretimento de geleiras, e comunidades do Caribe e da costa ocidental da Índia poderiam ver diminuir seus suprimentos de peixes. Na Macedônia, o cultivo de milho, trigo e uva seria reduzido em 50 %.

Ações urgentes

Sem ações coordenadas, o perigo é que o aumento da temperatura média global chegue a 4 °C até o fim do século, um cenário descrito pelo Banco Mundial como “um mundo assustador de aumento de riscos e instabilidade global”.

“Acabar com a pobreza, aumentar a prosperidade global e reduzir a desigualdade no mundo, o que já é difícil, vai ser muito mais difícil com um aquecimento de 2 °C, disse o presidente do Banco Mundial, Jim Yong Kim. “Mas com [um aumento de] 4 °C, há sérias dúvidas de que essas metas possam ser alcançadas.”

Os piores efeitos do aquecimento global poderiam ser evitados através da redução das emissões de gases de efeito estufa, reitera o relatório.

Representantes de quase 200 países se reunirão em breve para a próxima Conferência Mundial do Clima. Realizado no Peru entre os dias 1º e 12 de dezembro, o evento tem como objetivo a definição das bases de um acordo global de limitações de emissões de gases do efeito estufa. Espera-se que o acordo seja firmado em Paris em 2015.

NM/afp/rtr

* Publicado originalmente pela Deutsche Welle e retirado do site Carta Capital.

(Carta Capital)

West Antarctic melt rate has tripled in last decade (Science Daily)

03/12/2014UncategorizedAntártida, Calotas polares, Degelo, Desastre, Graciares, Mudanças climáticas, Previsãorenzotaddei

Date: December 2, 2014

Source: University of California – Irvine

Summary: A comprehensive, 21-year analysis of the fastest-melting region of Antarctica has found that the melt rate of glaciers there has tripled during the last decade.

UCI and NASA glaciologists, including Isabella Velicogna and Tyler Sutterley, have discovered that the melt rate of glaciers in West Antarctica has tripled, with the loss of a Mt. Everest’s worth of water weight every two years. Credit: Michael Studinger / NASA

A comprehensive, 21-year analysis of the fastest-melting region of Antarctica has found that the melt rate of glaciers there has tripled during the last decade.

The glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment in West Antarctica are hemorrhaging ice faster than any other part of Antarctica and are the most significant Antarctic contributors to sea level rise. This study is the first to evaluate and reconcile observations from four different measurement techniques to produce an authoritative estimate of the amount and the rate of loss over the last two decades.

“The mass loss of these glaciers is increasing at an amazing rate,” said scientist Isabella Velicogna, jointly of the UC Irvine and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Velicogna is a coauthor of a paper on the results, which has been accepted for Dec. 5 publication in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Lead author Tyler Sutterley, a UCI doctoral candidate, and his team did the analysis to verify that the melting in this part of Antarctica is shifting into high gear. “Previous studies had suggested that this region is starting to change very dramatically since the 1990s, and we wanted to see how all the different techniques compared,” Sutterley said. “The remarkable agreement among the techniques gave us confidence that we are getting this right.”

The researchers reconciled measurements of the mass balance of glaciers flowing into the Amundsen Sea Embayment. Mass balance is a measure of how much ice the glaciers gain and lose over time from accumulating or melting snow, discharges of ice as icebergs, and other causes. Measurements from all four techniques were available from 2003 to 2009. Combined, the four data sets span the years 1992 to 2013.

The glaciers in the embayment lost mass throughout the entire period. The researchers calculated two separate quantities: the total amount of loss, and the changes in the rate of loss.

The total amount of loss averaged 83 gigatons per year (91.5 billion U.S. tons). By comparison, Mt. Everest weighs about 161 gigatons, meaning the Antarctic glaciers lost a Mt.-Everest’s-worth amount of water weight every two years over the last 21 years.

The rate of loss accelerated an average of 6.1 gigatons (6.7 billion U.S. tons) per year since 1992.

From 2003 to 2009, when all four observational techniques overlapped, the melt rate increased an average of 16.3 gigatons per year — almost three times the rate of increase for the full 21-year period. The total amount of loss was close to the average at 84 gigatons.

The four sets of observations include NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, laser altimetry from NASA’s Operation IceBridge airborne campaign and earlier ICESat satellite, radar altimetry from the European Space Agency’s Envisat satellite, and mass budget analyses using radars and the University of Utrecht’s Regional Atmospheric Climate Model.

The scientists noted that glacier and ice sheet behavior worldwide is by far the greatest uncertainty in predicting future sea level. “We have an excellent observing network now. It’s critical that we maintain this network to continue monitoring the changes,” Velicogna said, “because the changes are proceeding very fast.”

Journal Reference:

Tyler C. Sutterley, Isabella Velicogna, Eric Rignot, Jeremie Mouginot, Thomas Flament, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Jan M. van Wessem, Carleen H. Reijmer. Mass loss of the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica from four independent techniques. Geophysical Research Letters, 2014; DOI: 10.1002/2014GL061940

The legacy of Climategate: 5 years later (Climate Etc.)

03/12/2014UncategorizedClimategate, Desastre, Diplomacia climática, Mudanças climáticasrenzotaddei

Posted on December 1, 2014

by Judith Curry

UPDATE: new email from student that motivated “An open letter . .”

Every year at Thanksgiving, I am reminded of Climategate.

Over the Thanksgiving holiday in 2009, in the midst of extensive email discussions with Andy Revkin and Joe Romm (!), I penned my essay An open letter to graduate students and young scientists in fields related to climate research. Which followed my essay (published at Climate Audit) On the credibility of climate research. In February 2010, I wrote an article Towards rebuilding trust. The main themes of my writings were concerns about:

lack of transparency – need to make data and documentation publicly available
tribalism among scientists and circling the wagons strategy: attacking skeptics with ad hominem attacks, appeal to motive attacks, isolating skeptics through lack of access to data, manipulation of the peer review process to reject skeptic papers
the need for improved analysis and communication of uncertainty

Seems like motherhood and apple pie issues? Well maybe from the perspective of 2014. But in 2009/2010, this was heresy. One of the story lines from Climategate became me, and my engagement with skeptics:

Discover Magazine: The big battle over climate science (profile of JC and Mann) April 2010
Scientific American: Climate Heretic: Judith Curry Turns on her Colleagues (Nov 2010)

So, what are we to make of all this 5 years later? The ‘establishment’ has maintained that Climategate was overhyped and irrelevant, and that the various enquiries have exonerated the scientists and the science. On the other hand, skeptics find Climategate to have been highly significant (found the inquiries to be bogus), and still discuss it.

There have been several interesting scholarly articles written on Climategate, including:

Reiner Grundman: Legacy of Climategate
Mike Hulme: After Climategate . . . Never the Same?
Leiserowitz et al.: Legacy of Climategate

5 years later – meta issues

So, what has changed in the past 5 years and can any of it be attributed to Climategate?

Transparency has improved substantially. Journals and funding agencies now expect data to be made publicly available, along with metadata. The code for most climate models is now publicly available. As far as I know, there are no outstanding FOIA requests for data (other than possibly some of Mann’s HS data and documentation). Climategate shed a public light on the lack of transparency in climate science, which was deemed intolerable by pretty much everyone (except for some people who ‘owned’ climate data sets).

Understanding, documenting and communicating uncertainty has continued to grow in importance, and is the focus of much more scholarly attention. With regards to the IPCC, I feel that WG2 in AR5 did a substantially better job with uncertainty and confidence levels (I was not impressed with what WG1 did).

Improved understanding of the deep uncertainty surrounding climate change has stimulated more sophisticated decision making analyses, beyond the simple linear model of predict then act.

The IAC review of the IPCC (instigated by Climategate) highlighted a number of problems with the IPCC. The IPCC has made a token response to some of them, A number of serious scholarly critiques of the IPCC have been made (for a summary see Grundman article), with suggestions for reform. The problems with the IPCC remain endemic and serious, in my opinion (Kill the IPCC).

The IPCC AR5 arguably had a much smaller public impact than did the AR4. Climategate has probably contributed to some people not paying attention to the AR5. However, I think it was the failure of the AR5 to deal with the surface temperature hiatus in a significant way that resulted in this lessening impact.

Climategate illuminated a serious lack of leadership from the scientific and environmental communities. Has this improved any? Well IMO there remains a serious lack of leadership from the establishment communities (e.g. institutions). I regard the death of Steve Schneider perhaps to be significant in this regard. On the plus side, in this leadership vacuum there has been a growing number of diverse voices entering into the public discussion on climate change.

The sociology of climate science received a substantial impetus from Climategate. There have been a number of insightful analyses, which I’ve highlighted at CE, related to the politicization of science, and the social psychology of consensus building and groupthink. There have also been a number of dubious to nonsensical studies on deniers, etc.

Hulme’s article remarks that Climategate has triggered a new interest in studying and understanding the various manifestations of climate change skepticism. The populist notion that all climate sceptics are either in the pay of oil barons or are right-wing ideologues, as is suggested for example by studies such as Oreskes and Conway (2011), cannot be sustained.

There has been a huge growth in attention to climate science communication, within academic circles and NGO/advocacy groups. Climategate was a turning point: pronouncements from the IPCC were no longer sufficient. Apparently as a result of the IPCC pronouncements no longer being sufficient, we’ve also seen a substantial increase in the number of scientists acting as advocates for mitigation policies.

Institutionally, Climategate triggered the formation of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), which has become quite influential in UK climate policy and to some extent internationally.

Climategate also motivated the formation of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature group. The significance of this group includes being private sector, transparency in data and methods, extensive website and prepublication press releases, and publication of their papers in a brand new online journal.

As a result of Climategate, there is little tolerance for the editorial gatekeeping ways of trying to keep skeptical papers from being published. I recall discussion in Climategate emails about a paper by Pat Michaels that found a climate sensitivity of 1.6C, that the Climategaters were trying to keep from being published. Hmmm . . . 1.6C sensitivity . . . seems pretty mainstream these days. The BEST publications in new online journals illustrate the waning stranglehold of the traditional high impact journal publications. We are even seeing skeptical papers being published in mainstream high impact journals (this is probably mostly attributable to the hiatus in warming).

The skeptical climate blogosphere has thrived and expanded, largely triggered by Climategate (Climate Etc. was triggered largely by Climategate). Whereas the ‘warm’ blogosphere for the most part has waned (notably RealClimate), with the exception of Skeptical Science. It seems that most of the ‘action’ on the warm side has switched to twitter, whereas skeptics prefer the blogosphere.

The growth of the technical skeptical blogosphere (pioneered by Steve McIntyre) has challenged traditional notions of expertise, i.e. credentials and sanctity of journal publications, through Climate Audit’s blogospheric deconstruction of many publications, particularly related to paleo proxies. While the technical skeptical blogosphere seems to have provided the motive for the Climategate ‘hack’, the technical skeptical blogosphere has thrived, and many of these sites are followed by the media and decision makers of various stripes.

And finally, what about climate policy and politics? Following the 2007 publication of the AR4 and through summer 2009, it seemed that climate (CO2 mitigation) policy was on an unstoppable juggernaut and that the COP in Copenhagen (Dec 2009) and U.S. carbon cap and trade legislation was on track. By summer 2010, all of that had fallen apart. Regarding the UN negotiations, most analysts have stated that Climategate played little role; it was all about raw politics and economics. But I suspect that as a result of Climategate, climate science/scientists had lost the moral high ground, allowing raw politics and economics to take over. But in the U.S., it seems that Climategate had a more palpable impact on climate legislation. Senator James Inhofe stated that Climategate was the death knell of carbon cap and trade legislation. More significantly, I saw somewhere that John Kerry said essentially the same thing (tho I can’t find the link).

Engaging with skeptics

5 years ago, my engagement with skeptics was sufficiently unusual and surprising to be picked up by the mainstream media. Particularly in the UK, Netherlands and Germany, post-Climategate there are welcome efforts by climate scientists to engage with skeptics (academic, blogosphere, policy foundations) and skeptics are taken seriously in the media. The Dutch effort ClimateDialogue is particularly notable in this regard.

In the U.S. (and Australia and Canada), the situation remains much more polarized. A recent exchange illustrates the differences in the UK versus the US. You may recall that several months ago, Nic Lewis hosted a dinner that included some skeptics (incl. Anthony Watts) as well as some climate scientists (including Richard Betts and Tamsin Edwards). Well Tim Ball recently wrote an article at WUWT People starting to ask about motive for massive IPCC deception, with a lengthy quote from Mein Kampf, Building on their engagement with Watts, Tamsin Edwards and Richard Betts responded over at WUWT with a post A big (goose) step backwards, where they criticize Ball’s post for the Mein Kampf quote and for snide remarks about the IPCC, without actually engaging with the real content of the post. Anthony responds in a conciliatory way, stating that Ball’s article was posted at a time when he was unavailable to exercise any editorial control.

Seems like a rather small deal, no? Well the 1100 comments at WUWT were absolutely vitriolic against Betts and Edwards. On twitter, the vitriolic comments were coming from the warm side, i.e. how stupid they were to post at WUWT. There is some relatively sane discussion of this over at ATTP, including comments from Betts and Edwards. The most interesting comment IMO is from Eli Rabett:

They had invested effort and taken stick for their let’s break bread position without it ever being clear what the other side was offering them for making the effort. Having done the early Judy trick they found themselves at a fork in the road, and either had to cash in some of their winnings, fold, or go the way of Curry.

They chose a straddle, trying to play nice with Watts while condemning Ball. At the same time Tamsin is tweeting like crazy to defend the other flank. This may have slightly moved their Overton window, or not.

Well, it seems Betts and Edwards are trying to promote civility, something that the UK does pretty well. Presumably they thought that posting at WUWT would be like posting at BishopHill. NOT. Climate change and social media is mostly blood sport over in the US (and Australia and Canada), where the situation remains very polarized and polarizing.

Regarding scientists that are skeptical of AGW or critical of the IPCC, they seem to be better off post-Climategate (in terms of getting journal articles published and interviews from mainstream media) and a larger population of such scientists have emerged. This can partly be attributed to Climategate, but again I think the hiatus is a bigger factor. Life for a scientist that is skeptical of ‘consensus’ climate science or critical of the IPCC is definitely easier post-Climategate.

Mann vs et al.

Climategate lives on in the lawsuits than Michael Mann has filed against CEI, National Review Online, Rand Simberg, and Mark Steyn. For background, see these previous posts:

The lawsuit is related to the ‘fraudulent hockey stick’ that was illuminated by the Climategate emails. Climategate considerably broadened public awareness of the hockey stick and the associated controversies, making it an icon for concerns about climate science and scientists. This post is getting too long, so I don’t want to get into this subject any more here, but with these lawsuits there is no denying that the impacts of Climategate are still playing out.

Personal impact

My own saga, after the three essays I wrote immediately following Climategate (referenced above), was set in place with these three essays:

Interview with Keith Kloor: Curry the backstory 4/27/2010
Response to Scientific American: Heresy and the Creation of Monsters 10/25/2010
Reversing the direction of the positive feedback loop 11/3/2010

Particularly with the last two essays, I established myself as an ‘outsider’ to the climate ‘establishment’ and incurred the wrath of many of climate scientists (the feedback loop article is particularly hard hitting, read it if you missed it the first time). The Scientific American article played no small role in my ‘radicalization’ at this time; it set me on a path where I no longer judged anything that I did in context of my academic peers in the climate science community.

Intellectually, I embarked on my ‘uncertainty odyssey’ following the March 2010 Royal Society Workshop on Scientific Uncertainty, which stimulated the publication of these two papers in 2011 that seeded the uncertainty series in the early days of Climate Etc:

This uncertainty odyssey spilled over into decision making under uncertainty, a topic I had been exploring since 2004 with the preparation of a major NSF STC proposal Environmental Predictions and Decisions, which made the semi-finals but was not funded. I explored the issue of decision making under deep uncertainty in numerous blog posts, plus these papers published in 2012:

By the time 2011 rolled around, my ostracization by the climate establishment was pretty complete, so I redefined (broadened) my academic peer group to include physicists, social scientists and philosophers (not to mention the extended peer community developed on my blog). I found this much more stimulating and interesting than the circled wagons of the climate community.

To assess the personal impact of Climategate, I’m trying to figure out exactly where my head was at prior to Climategate in 2009. Wherever; I’m not sure it matters anymore. In 2014, I no longer feel the major ostracism by my peers in the climate establishment; after all, many of the issues I’ve been raising that seemed so controversial have now become mainstream. And the hiatus has helped open some minds.

The net effect of all this is that my ‘academic career advancement’ in terms of professional recognition, climbing the administrative ladder, etc. has been pretty much halted. I’ve exchanged academic advancement that now seems to be of dubious advantage to me for a much more interesting and influential existence that that feels right in terms of my personal and scientific integrity.

Bottom line: Climategate was career changing for me; I’ll let history decide if this was for better or worse (if history even cares).

Conclusion

In conclusion, I will quote this statement from Reiner Grundman:

We need much more reflection on this case which should not be closed off because of political expediency. The debate has only just begun.

UPDATE: I just received this email from the student whose email, following my ClimateAudit essay, motivated my post “An open letter . . .”

Hi Judy,

I hope all is well. It is amazing that climategate was five years ago. I just successfully defended my dissertation in September and have started the xxxx Fellowship. It is going to be an exciting year learning about policy making. 🙂

I just wanted to send you a short note regarding your latest post – The legacy of climategate: 5 years later.

I still stand by my statements in the email all those years ago and although, months and years may turn into decades, you continue to inspire me.

History will decide. And it will care and what has happend was for the better.

All the best,

Climate change in the media (DISCCRS)

03/12/2014UncategorizedMídia, Mudanças climáticasrenzotaddei

DISCCRSnews Digest, Vol 85, Issue 1

NEWS

U.S., British data show 2014 could be hottest year on record – Reuters – November 27, 2014 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/27/us-climatechange-heat-idUSKCN0JB1EM20141127

Unmanned underwater vehicle provides first 3-D images of underside of Antarctic sea ice – NSF Press Release 14-158 – November 24, 2014 – http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=133444&WT.mc_id=USNSF_51&WT.mc_ev=click

Climate change adaptation comes of age in UN talks – Thomson Reuters Foundation – December 1, 2014 – http://www.trust.org/item/20141130235939-temvr/?source=fiOtherNews2

UN climate talks open with hopes for deal, warning time short – Reuters – December 1, 2014 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/01/us-climatechange-lima-idUSKCN0JF37320141201

Climate change impacts heat up UN talks in Lima – Associated Press – December 1, 2014 – http://bigstory.ap.org/article/6f53a4cb473649dcadd34a53d932df23/clock-ticking-un-climate-talks-resume-lima

US and China’s emission cuts may not be enough – New Scientist – November 19, 2014 – http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22429965.000-us-and-chinas-emission-cuts-may-not-be-enough.html#.VH0Eayiv1sQ

US and China Pledge New Goals On Climate Change (+Audio) – Think Out Loud – Oregon Public Broadcasting – November 12, 2014 – Guest Ron Mitchell – http://www.opb.org/radio/programs/thinkoutloud/segment/us-and-china-pledge-new-goals-on-climate-change/

Politics, not severe weather, drive global-warming views – Michigan State University Press Release – December 1, 2014 – http://msutoday.msu.edu/news/2014/politics-not-severe-weather-drive-global-warming-views/

Geoengineering the planet: first experiments take shape – New Scientist – November 27, 2014 – http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22429974.000-geoengineering-the-planet-first-experiments-take-shape.html#.VH0EWSiv1sQ
Related: Resorting to geoengineering to tackle climate change would be an admission of failure, UK scientists say. – Climate News Network – November 29, 2014 – http://www.climatenewsnetwork.net/geoengineering-could-worsen-climate-change/

Warming world spells trouble for growing and ageing populations – Climate News Network – November 28, 2014 – http://www.climatenewsnetwork.net/12084/

Most of Earth’s carbon may be hidden in the planet’s inner core, new model suggests – University of Michigan Press Release (via AAAS EurekAlert)- December 1, 2014 – http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2014-12/uom-moe120114.php

Weather satellite data hack and outage: Why this matters for forecasting – Washington Post – November 12, 2014 – http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/12/weather-satellite-data-hack-and-outage-why-this-matters-for-forecasting/

Robot subs find Antarctic sea ice thicker than expected – New Scientist – November 24, 2014 – http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26606-robot-subs-find-antarctic-sea-ice-thicker-than-expected.html#.VH0EYSiv1sQ

Researchers crack the ice to study the Arctic marine food web – NSF Science Nation – November 17, 2014 – http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/science_nation/seaicealgae.jsp?WT.mc_id=USNSF_51

The emergence of modern sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, 2.6 million years ago – Centre for Arctic Gas Hydrate, Environment and Climate Press Release – November 28, 2014 – https://cage.uit.no/news/emergence-modern-sea-ice-arctic-ocean-26-million-years-ago/

Loss of Arctic sea ice to doom polar bears by 2075 – New Scientist – November 26, 2014 – http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26620-loss-of-arctic-sea-ice-to-doom-polar-bears-by-2075.html#.VH0EXSiv1sQ

FORUM

The Chinese scientific revolution aims to tackle climate change – Climate Consensus – the 97% blog (Guardian) – November 28, 2014 – By John Abraham – http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/nov/28/chinese-scientific-revolution-tackle-climate-change

China, America and Our Warming Planet – New York Times – November 11, 2014 – By John Kerry – http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/12/opinion/john-kerry-our-historic-agreement-with-china-on-climate-change.html?_r=0

Behind the Numbers: China-U.S. Climate Announcement’s Implications for China?s Development Pathway – World Bank Blog – November 25, 2014 – By Xueman Wang – http://blogs.worldbank.org/climatechange/behind-numbers-china-us-climate-announcements-implications-china-s-development-pathway

Brazil’s epic water crisis a global wake-up call – Thomson Reuters Foundation – November 24, 2014 – By Kevin Allison and Antony Currie – http://www.trust.org/item/20141124162353-nw9xm/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AlertNet%20Expresso%20Nov%2025%202014&utm_content=

Extreme El Nino weather stunted growth of Peruvian children – Thomson Reuters Foundation – November 25, 2014 – http://www.trust.org/item/20141125005848-67bs9/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AlertNet%20Expresso%20Nov%2025%202014&utm_content=

Atmospheric Trust Litigation — Can We Sue Ourselves Over Climate Change? – Forbes – November 23, 2014 – By James Conca – http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2014/11/23/atmospheric-trust-litigation-can-we-sue-ourselves-over-climate-change/

Modeling the past to understand the future of a stronger El Niño (Science Daily)

27/11/2014UncategorizedEl Niño, Incerteza, Matemática, Meteorologia, Modelagem, Mudanças climáticas, Previsãorenzotaddei

Date:

November 26, 2014

Source:

University of Wisconsin-Madison

Summary:

El Nino is not a contemporary phenomenon; it’s long been the Earth’s dominant source of year-to-year climate fluctuation. But as the climate warms and the feedbacks that drive the cycle change, researchers want to know how El Nino will respond.

Using state-of-the-art computer models maintained at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, researchers determined that El Niño has intensified over the last 6,000 years. This pier and cafe are in Ocean Beach, California. Credit: Jon Sullivan

It was fishermen off the coast of Peru who first recognized the anomaly, hundreds of years ago. Every so often, their usually cold, nutrient-rich water would turn warm and the fish they depended on would disappear. Then there was the ceaseless rain.

They called it “El Nino,” The Boy — or Christmas Boy — because of its timing near the holiday each time it returned, every three to seven years.

El Nino is not a contemporary phenomenon; it’s long been Earth’s dominant source of year-to-year climate fluctuation. But as the climate warms and the feedbacks that drive the cycle change, researchers want to know how El Nino will respond. A team of researchers led by the University of Wisconsin’s Zhengyu Liu published the latest findings in this quest Nov. 27, 2014 in Nature.

“We can’t see the future; the only thing we can do is examine the past,” says Liu, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. “The question people are interested in now is whether it’s going to be stronger or weaker, and this requires us to first check if our model can simulate its past history.”

The study examines what has influenced El Nino over the last 21,000 years in order to understand its future and to prepare for the consequences. It is valuable knowledge for scientists, land managers, policymakers and many others, as people across the globe focus on adapting to a changing climate.

Using state-of-the-art computer models maintained at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, the researchers — also from Peking University in China, the University of Hawaii at Manoa, and Georgia Institute of Technology — determined that El Nino has intensified over the last 6,000 years.

The findings corroborate data from previous studies, which relied on observations like historical sediments off the Central American coast and changes in fossilized coral. During warm, rainy El Nino years, the coastal sediments consist of larger mixed deposits of lighter color, and the coral provides a unique signature, akin to rings on a tree.

“There have been some observations that El Nino has been changing,” says Liu, also a professor in the Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies Center for Climatic Research. “Previous studies seem to indicate El Nino has increased over the last 5,000 to 7,000 years.”

But unlike previous studies, the new model provides a continuous look at the long history of El Nino, rather than a snapshot in time.

It examines the large-scale influences that have impacted the strength of El Nino over the last 21,000 years, such as atmospheric carbon dioxide, ice sheet melting and changes to Earth’s orbit.

El Nino is driven by an intricate tango between the ocean and Earth’s atmosphere. In non-El Nino years, trade winds over the tropical Pacific Ocean drive the seas westward, from the coast of Central America toward Indonesia, adding a thick, warm layer to the surface of the western part of the ocean while cooler water rises to the surface in the east. This brings rain to the west and dry conditions to the east.

During El Nino, the trade winds relax and the sea surface temperature differences between the Western and Eastern Pacific Ocean are diminished. This alters the heat distribution in both the water and the air in each region, forcing a cascade of global climate-related changes.

“It has an impact on Madison winter temperatures — when Peru is warm, it’s warm here,” says Liu. “It has global impact. If there are changes in the future, will it change the pattern?”

Before the start of the Holocene — which began roughly 12,000 years ago — pulses of melting water during deglaciation most strongly influenced El Nino, the study found. But since that time, changes in Earth’s orbit have played the greatest role in intensifying it.

Like an uptick in tempo, the feedbacks between ocean and atmosphere — such as how wind and seas interact — have grown stronger.

However, even with the best data available, some features of the simulated El Nino — especially prior to 6,000 years ago — can’t be tested unambiguously, Liu says. The current observational data feeding the model is sparse and the resolution too low to pick up subtle shifts in El Nino over the millennia.

The study findings indicate better observational data is needed to refine the science, like more coral samples and sediment measurements from different locations in the Central Pacific. Like all science, better understanding what drives El Nino and how it might change is a process, and one that will continue to evolve over time.

“It’s really an open door; we need more data to get a more significant model,” he says. “With this study, we are providing the first benchmark for the next five, 10, 20 years into the future.”

Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by University of Wisconsin-Madison. The original article was written by Kelly April Tyrrell. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.

Journal Reference:

Zhengyu Liu, Zhengyao Lu, Xinyu Wen, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. Timmermann, K. M. Cobb. Evolution and forcing mechanisms of El Niño over the past 21,000 years. Nature, 2014; 515 (7528): 550 DOI: 10.1038/nature13963

High-tech mirror beams heat away from buildings into space (Science Daily)

27/11/2014UncategorizedGeoengenharia, Mediação tecnológica, Mudanças climáticasrenzotaddei

Date:

November 26, 2014

Source:

Stanford School of Engineering

Summary:

Engineers have invented a material designed to help cool buildings. The material reflects incoming sunlight, and it sends heat from inside the structure directly into space as infrared radiation.

Stanford engineers have invented a material designed to help cool buildings. The material reflects incoming sunlight and sends heat from inside the structure directly into space as infrared radiation – represented by reddish rays. Credit: Illustration: Nicolle R. Fuller, Sayo-Art LLC

Stanford engineers have invented a revolutionary coating material that can help cool buildings, even on sunny days, by radiating heat away from the buildings and sending it directly into space.

A new ultrathin multilayered material can cool buildings without air conditioning by radiating warmth from inside the buildings into space while also reflecting sunlight to reduce incoming heat.

A team led by electrical engineering Professor Shanhui Fan and research associate Aaswath Raman reported this energy-saving breakthrough in the journal Nature.

The heart of the invention is an ultrathin, multilayered material that deals with light, both invisible and visible, in a new way.

Invisible light in the form of infrared radiation is one of the ways that all objects and living things throw off heat. When we stand in front of a closed oven without touching it, the heat we feel is infrared light. This invisible, heat-bearing light is what the Stanford invention shunts away from buildings and sends into space.

Of course, sunshine also warms buildings. The new material, in addition to dealing with infrared light, is also a stunningly efficient mirror that reflects virtually all of the incoming sunlight that strikes it.

The result is what the Stanford team calls photonic radiative cooling — a one-two punch that offloads infrared heat from within a building while also reflecting the sunlight that would otherwise warm it up. The result is cooler buildings that require less air conditioning.

“This is very novel and an extraordinarily simple idea,” said Eli Yablonovitch, a professor of engineering at the University of California, Berkeley, and a pioneer of photonics who directs the Center for Energy Efficient Electronics Science. “As a result of professor Fan’s work, we can now [use radiative cooling], not only at night but counter-intuitively in the daytime as well.”

The researchers say they designed the material to be cost-effective for large-scale deployment on building rooftops. Though it’s still a young technology, they believe it could one day reduce demand for electricity. As much as 15 percent of the energy used in buildings in the United States is spent powering air conditioning systems.

In practice the researchers think the coating might be sprayed on a more solid material to make it suitable for withstanding the elements.

“This team has shown how to passively cool structures by simply radiating heat into the cold darkness of space,” said Nobel Prize-winning physicist Burton Richter, professor emeritus at Stanford and former director of the research facility now called the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory.

A warming world needs cooling technologies that don’t require power, according to Raman, lead author of the Nature paper. “Across the developing world, photonic radiative cooling makes off-grid cooling a possibility in rural regions, in addition to meeting skyrocketing demand for air conditioning in urban areas,” he said.

Using a window into space

The real breakthrough is how the Stanford material radiates heat away from buildings.

As science students know, heat can be transferred in three ways: conduction, convection and radiation. Conduction transfers heat by touch. That’s why you don’t touch a hot oven pan without wearing a mitt. Convection transfers heat by movement of fluids or air. It’s the warm rush of air when the oven is opened. Radiation transfers heat in the form of infrared light that emanates outward from objects, sight unseen.

The first part of the coating’s one-two punch radiates heat-bearing infrared light directly into space. The ultrathin coating was carefully constructed to send this infrared light away from buildings at the precise frequency that allows it to pass through the atmosphere without warming the air, a key feature given the dangers of global warming.

“Think about it like having a window into space,” Fan said.

Aiming the mirror

But transmitting heat into space is not enough on its own.

This multilayered coating also acts as a highly efficient mirror, preventing 97 percent of sunlight from striking the building and heating it up.

“We’ve created something that’s a radiator that also happens to be an excellent mirror,” Raman said.

Together, the radiation and reflection make the photonic radiative cooler nearly 9 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than the surrounding air during the day.

The multilayered material is just 1.8 microns thick, thinner than the thinnest aluminum foil.

It is made of seven layers of silicon dioxide and hafnium oxide on top of a thin layer of silver. These layers are not a uniform thickness, but are instead engineered to create a new material. Its internal structure is tuned to radiate infrared rays at a frequency that lets them pass into space without warming the air near the building.

“This photonic approach gives us the ability to finely tune both solar reflection and infrared thermal radiation,” said Linxiao Zhu, doctoral candidate in applied physics and a co-author of the paper.

“I am personally very excited about their results,” said Marin Soljacic, a physics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “This is a great example of the power of nanophotonics.”

From prototype to building panel

Making photonic radiative cooling practical requires solving at least two technical problems.

The first is how to conduct the heat inside the building to this exterior coating. Once it gets there, the coating can direct the heat into space, but engineers must first figure out how to efficiently deliver the building heat to the coating.

The second problem is production. Right now the Stanford team’s prototype is the size of a personal pizza. Cooling buildings will require large panels. The researchers say large-area fabrication facilities can make their panels at the scales needed.

The cosmic fridge

More broadly, the team sees this project as a first step toward using the cold of space as a resource. In the same way that sunlight provides a renewable source of solar energy, the cold universe supplies a nearly unlimited expanse to dump heat.

“Every object that produces heat has to dump that heat into a heat sink,” Fan said. “What we’ve done is to create a way that should allow us to use the coldness of the universe as a heat sink during the day.”

In addition to Fan, Raman and Zhu, this paper has two additional co-authors: Marc Abou Anoma, a master’s student in mechanical engineering who has graduated; and Eden Rephaeli, a doctoral student in applied physics who has graduated.

This research was supported by the Advanced Research Project Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) of the U.S. Department of Energy.

Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by Stanford School of Engineering. The original article was written by Chris Cesare. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.

Journal Reference:

Aaswath P. Raman, Marc Abou Anoma, Linxiao Zhu, Eden Rephaeli, Shanhui Fan. Passive radiative cooling below ambient air temperature under direct sunlight. Nature, 2014; 515 (7528): 540 DOI: 10.1038/nature13883

Temperaturas do verão vão superar as de 2014, diz instituto (O Globo)

24/11/2014UncategorizedCalor, El Niño, Meteorologia, Mudanças climáticas, Previsão, Verãorenzotaddei

JC, 5070, 24 de novembro de 2014

Aumento seria de até 2 graus Celsius; fenômeno El Niño pode provocar mais chuvas

Daqui a um mês começa a estação mais popular do Rio. E o verão de 2015 não deve dar trégua para quem detesta calor. De acordo com o Instituto Climatempo, o primeiro bimestre do ano que vem terá temperaturas ainda mais elevadas do que as registradas no ano passado. Em janeiro, a média será de 32ºC. Em fevereiro, 36ºC. Em 2014, a média não superou os 34ºC.

(Renato Grandelle, com Agências Internacionais / O Globo)

Emissões nacionais sobem 7,8% em 2013 (Folha de S.Paulo)

24/11/2014UncategorizedCarbono, Mudanças climáticasrenzotaddei

JC, 5070, 24 de novembro de 2014

Salto na poluição ameaça meta brasileira para combater aquecimento global; governo inocenta o desmatamento

Má notícia para o governo Dilma Rousseff, pior para o planeta: a contribuição do país para o aquecimento global avançou 7,8% em 2013. O dado indica reversão da tendência de queda após 2005.

Veja o texto na íntegra em: http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/cienciasaude/196408-emissoes-nacionais-sobem-78-em-2013.shtml

(Marcelo Leite/Folha de S.Paulo)

Deep decarbonization pathways (DDPP)

24/11/2014UncategorizedCarbono, Mudanças climáticasrenzotaddei

http://unsdsn.org/what-we-do/deep-decarbonization-pathways/

Opinion poll: Canada’s climate change consensus confronts Keystone (Science Daily)

24/11/2014UncategorizedCanadá, Gás natural, Mudanças climáticas, Opinião pública, Petróleo, Políticarenzotaddei

Date: November 20, 2014

Source: University of Montreal

Summary: Despite the fact that 81% of Canadians accept that temperature on Earth is increasing, researchers have revealed that Canadians are generally misinformed about the science of climate change and are divided over the construction of new oil pipelines.

Despite the fact that 81% of Canadians accept that temperature on Earth is increasing, Université de Montréal researchers have revealed that Canadians are generally misinformed about the science of climate change and are divided over the construction of new oil pipelines. The researchers’ study also found that 70% of Canadians perceive significant changes in weather where they live; 60% believe that weather in Canada has been getting more extreme; and 87% believe these changes are somewhat or very likely the consequence of a warming planet.

The nationally representative telephone survey interviewed 1401 adult Canadians during the month of October, yielding a margin of error of +/- 2.6% in 19 of 20 samples. The study, run concurrently with researchers at the University of Michigan and Muhlenberg College in the US, highlights a stark contrast between the views of Canadians and Americans on the existence of climate change and support for pipelines, yet remarkable convergence on perceptions of weather and climate-related knowledge.

Hardly opinions based in fact

80% of Canadians, versus 60% of Americans, believe there is solid evidence that the average temperature on Earth has increased over the past four decades. This figure was significantly lower in Alberta (72%) and the Prairies (Manitoba and Saskatchewan, 60%.)

Of those who perceive an increase in temperature, 61% attribute the warming to human causes, compared to only 45% in the US. The figure was significantly higher in Quebec, at 71%, and significantly lower in Alberta, at 41%.

70% of Canadians perceive significant changes in weather patterns where they live, with 60% of Canadians perceive national weather is becoming more extreme, with highest figures in Ontario and on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. These figures were 58% and 68% respectively for Americans.

Extreme weather is either somewhat (40%) or very (47%) likely the result of global warming, according to 87% of Canadians (and 68% of Americans.) Moreover, 59% of Canadians believe climate change will begin to harm people living in Canada within the next 10 to 25 years. A plurality of Canadians (35%) believe it already is.

Finally, two out of three Canadians (67%) believe the government is either not too prepared (34%) or not at all prepared (33%) for the consequences of a warming planet

Despite all this, more Americans (35%) than Canadians (30%) know that methane is a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, while 60% of Canadians (and 45% of Americans) believe that carbon dioxide emissions are responsible for the hole in the ozone layer.

Pipelines and politics

Canadians are more likely to oppose (44%) than support (36%) the Keystone XL energy pipeline, while 20% have a neutral opinion. The opposite is true on the other side of the border: the figures are 34%, 52% and 14%, respectively. However, support is highest among self-identified supporters of the federal Conservative Party of Canada (55%), mirroring the polarized situation in the United States, where 72% of Republicans support the project against 39% of Democrats.

Within Canada, support for Keystone XL was highest in Alberta (58%). At 50%, Trans Canada’s Energy East project has greater support than Keystone XL, but opinions vary substantially across regions. At the high end, 68% of citizens in Alberta support the project, compared to a low of 33% of citizens in Quebec.

Finally, support for a system of cap and trade in Canada has increased to 60% in 2014, and continues to be more popular among Canadians than a carbon tax (48%).

“When you dig into the data, you see that Canadians are beginning to connect the dots between the notion of ‘climate change’ and observable changes in weather where they live. However, Canadians lack a certain degree of climate literacy, and it would be a mistake to assume that all Canadians are on the same page when it comes to fundamental climate science,” explained Erick Lachapelle, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Montreal and principal investigator for the Canadian portion of the study. “The public is not as informed as perhaps they should be about this important issue, and there continues to be wide variation across the country, in terms of perceptions, beliefs, and preferences. The division over pipelines is a case in point.”

About the poll

The National Survey of Canadian Public Opinion on Climate Change was designed by Erick Lachapelle (Université de Montréal), Chris Borick (Muhlenberg College) and Barry Rabe (University of Michigan). The survey was administered to a nationally representative sample of 1,401 Canadians aged 18 and over. All interviews were conducted via telephone in English and French from 6 October 2014 to 27 October 2014. Calls were made using both landline and mobile phone listings. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is plus or minus 2.6% in 19 of 20 samples. Regional margins of error vary according to subsample size. Results reported here are weighted according to gender, age, language and region to reflect the latest population estimates from Statistics Canada (Census 2011).

Animação da Nasa mostra rotas do CO2 ao redor do planeta (BBC)

22/11/2014UncategorizedCarbono, Mudanças climáticas, Visualidaderenzotaddei

VIDEO

Uma nova animação divulgada pela Nasa mostra como os gases de efeito estufa se comportam ao longo de um ano.

O modelo evidencia que a concentração do gás carbônico ocorre na América do Norte, Europa e norte da Ásia.

Cerca de metade do dióxido de carbono emitido pela queima de combustíveis fósseis permanece na atmosfera; a outra metade é absorvida por plantas e pelos oceanos.

A animação permite ver ainda que os gases não ficam parados, mas se dispersam seguindo padrões climáticos.

A presença dos gases diminui na primavera e no verão do hemisfério norte, quando as plantas absorvem gás carbônico no processo de fotossíntese.

O vídeo usa imagens de 2006. Segundo a agência espacial americana, as concentrações de gás carbônico na atmosfera aumentam ano a ano – o que contribui para o aumento das temperaturas globais.

Uma (in)certa antropologia

An (un)certain anthropology

Arquivo da tag: Mudanças climáticas

Climate change in the news (DISCCRS)

“What is ecological engineering?” (Inhabiting the Anthropocene)

Jason Moore: Anthropocene or Capitalocene? (Anthropo.scene)

Study: California drought is the most severe in at least 1,200 years (Washington Post)

Geoengineering Gone Wild: Newsweek Touts Turning Humans Into Hobbits To Save Climate (Climate Progress)

Brasil chega a Lima na contramão dos esforços globais contra mudanças do clima (Observatório do Clima)

January-October 2014 temperatures highest on record (Science Daily)

Education is key to climate adaptation (Science Daily)

Fundo contra o aquecimento atinge US$ 9,7 bi (Folha de S.Paulo)

Reunião do clima começa otimista e aflita

Optimism Faces Grave Realities at Climate Talks (New York Times)

Record Drought Reveals Stunning Changes Along Colorado River (National Geographic)

O Brasil secou (Super Interessante)

Leaked: The Oil Lobby’s Conspiracy to Kill Off California’s Climate Law (Bloomberg Business Week)

Aquecimento global pode minar luta contra a pobreza, alerta Banco Mundial (Carta Capital)

West Antarctic melt rate has tripled in last decade (Science Daily)

The legacy of Climategate: 5 years later (Climate Etc.)

Climate change in the media (DISCCRS)

Modeling the past to understand the future of a stronger El Niño (Science Daily)

High-tech mirror beams heat away from buildings into space (Science Daily)

Temperaturas do verão vão superar as de 2014, diz instituto (O Globo)

Emissões nacionais sobem 7,8% em 2013 (Folha de S.Paulo)

Deep decarbonization pathways (DDPP)

Opinion poll: Canada’s climate change consensus confronts Keystone (Science Daily)

Animação da Nasa mostra rotas do CO2 ao redor do planeta (BBC)