Arquivo da tag: Incerteza

Mudança climática é tabu na campanha eleitoral dos Estados Unidos (Envolverde/IPS)

Por Becky Bergdahl, da IPS – 25/10/2012

sa12 300x198 Mudança climática é tabu na campanha eleitoral dos Estados Unidos

Nova York, Estados Unidos, 25/10/2012 – Os Estados Unidos sofreram este ano o verão mais quente de sua história, com secas e incêndios em diversas partes de seu território. E, segundo um informe da firma de resseguros Munich Re, as perdas com pagamentos de seguros devido a eventos climáticos extremos quase quadruplicaram desde 1980. Diante disto, alguns poderiam esperar que o aquecimento global fosse um dos temas mais importantes da campanha no país para as eleições presidenciais de 6 de novembro.

Entretanto, nos três debates eleitorais, transmitidos pela televisão para todo o país e boa parte do mundo, nem o presidente e candidato à reeleição, Barack Obama, do Partido Democrata, nem seu adversário, Mitt Romney, do Partido Republicano, sequer mencionaram o tema. Houve outro debate, entre os candidatos a vice-presidentes, no qual a mudança climática também foi omitida.

“Está se perdendo a oportunidade de se falar sobre um dos principais desafios que enfrentamos”, disse à IPS Bob Deans, assessor do ecologista e não governamental Conselho para a Defesa dos Recursos Naturais. “Segundo um novo estudo da Universidade do Texas, 73% da população norte-americana acredita que a mudança climática está efetivamente ocorrendo. Já em recente pesquisa da Universidade de Yale, 70% dos entrevistados deram a mesma resposta. As consultas foram feitas em setembro.

Assim, o que vemos é que sete em cada dez norte-americanos têm conhecimento do problema”, pontuou Deans, que também citou um informe da Munich Re, segundo o qual os desastres naturais aumentaram mais na América do Norte do que em qualquer outra parte do mundo desde 1980. As perdas asseguradas por catástrofes climáticas na região totalizaram US$ 510 bilhões entre 1980 e 2011, segundo a firma alemã, a maior multinacional de resseguros do mundo.

Isto mostra que a mudança climática não é apenas uma questão ambiental, mas também é financeira, segundo Deans, integrante de uma das organizações ecologistas mais poderosas dos Estados Unidos. “Conforme o clima vai ficando extremo, as pessoas vão entendendo que também se trata de um assunto econômico sério, não apenas uma questão de abraçar árvores”, afirmou o ativista.

“O aumento do nível do mar pode colocar em risco as casas, e se uma casa está ameaçada não se consegue obter uma hipoteca. Os produtores de milho não conseguem uma boa colheita em anos. Vemos famílias que tiveram fazendas durante anos e agora não podem mais sustentá-las”, destacou Deans. Durante os debates públicos, incluindo um centrado em política externa, no dia 22, tanto Obama quanto Romney mencionaram a necessidade de se reduzir os preços dos combustíveis. Porém, nenhum se manisfestou sobre a questão de se reduzir as emissões de gases-estufa responsáveis pela mudança climática.

“Fica cada vez mais óbvio que Obama e Romney não são diferentes. Ambos se equivocam em pensar que qualquer menção ao clima é uma desvantagem política”, disse à IPS a ativista Kyle Ash, do Greenpeace Estados Unidos. “Apesar de a última pesquisa ter demonstrando que a vasta maioria do público está muito preocupada pela mudança climática, os dois candidatos preferem atender os interesses dos combustíveis fósseis em lugar de investir em soluções para o problema do clima”, apontou.

“A maior diferença entre ambos está na plataforma da campanha republicana, que diretamente nega a mudança climática. Mas, os dois candidatos estão em cargos administrativos que adotaram políticas contra a contaminação”, disse Ash, para quem tanto Obama quanto Romney se arriscam a perder votos se continuarem ignorando este assunto tão importante. “Centenas de milhares de norte-americanos solicitaram a Obama e a Romney que expressem suas opiniões sobre política climática, já que é um tema grave e premente para a economia, e inclusive para nosso estilo de vida básico”, afirmou Ash.

Em uma tentativa de mobilizar a população e pressionar os líderes políticos, a seção norte-americana do grupo internacional de ação climática 350.org lançou uma nova campanha, denominada Do The Math Tour (Gire Faça os Cálculos), que começará em 7 de novembro, dia seguinte às eleições, e incluirá atividades em 20 cidades. Conta com apoio de celebridades, como a jornalista e ativista canadense Naomi Klein e o arcebispo anglicano sul-africano Desmond Tutu, prêmio Nobel da Paz.

“Se vamos enfrentar as campanhas pelos combustíveis fósseis, precisamos de um movimento. Elas têm todo o dinheiro, por isso precisamos testar algo diferente. Este giro está criado para gerar um movimento suficientemente forte para vencer”, disse à IPS o ativista Daniel Kessler, da 350. Org. “É um cálculo simples. Podemos queimar até mais 565 gigatoneladas de carbono e manter o aquecimento global abaixo dos dois graus. Qualquer coisa além disso colocará em risco a vida na Terra”, disse Kessler. “As corporações agora têm 2.795 gigatoneladas em suas reservas, cinco vezes mais do que a quantidade segura. E planejam queimar tudo isso, a menos que atuemos rapidamente para detê-las”, acrescentou.

Kessler também disse que, embora nenhum candidato fale abertamente sobre a mudança climática, há claras diferenças entre Obama e Romney. “Parece que Romney como presidente seria um desastre tanto para o meio ambiente quanto para o clima”, afirmou. “Disse que quer tirar da EPA (Agência de Proteção Ambiental) a autoridade para regular as emissões de carbono, acabar com os créditos fiscais para energia renovável e manter os enormes subsídios às firmas de petróleo e carvão, que já estão entre as mais lucrativas do mundo”, recordou Kessler.

“As políticas de Obama não são suficientemente fortes para enfrentar o problema da mudança climática, mas ele tem que lutar para proteger a EPA e fazer o maior investimento em energias limpas na história mundial”, enfatizou. Os comandos das campanhas dos candidatos não responderam aos pedidos da IPS para que comentassem este assunto. O aquecimento global “é completamente ignorado pelo presidente Obama e por Romney nos debates públicos”, disse Scott McLarty, coordenador de mídia para o Partido Verde. “Mas, nos debates alternativos, a candidata do Partido Verde, Jill Stein, falou sobre a mudança climática várias vezes. E continuará falando”, disse McLarty à IPS.

What’s wrong with putting a price on nature? (The Guardian)

Pricing the financial value of services nature provides for free – such as clean water – may be the best way to save species

Richard Conniff for Yale Environment 360, part of the Guardian Environment Network

guardian.co.uk, Thursday 18 October 2012 16.44 BST

Give a Price on Nature : A bird of prey glides through the sky

A bird of prey glides through the sky at sunrise in Bilbao, northern Spain, 14 October 2012, while the rain threatens from the distance. Photograph: Alfredo Aldai/EPA

Ecosystem services is not exactly a phrase to stir the human imagination. But over the past few years, it has managed to dazzle both diehard conservationists and bottom-line business types as the best answer to global environmental decline.

For proponents, the logic is straightforward: Old-style protection of nature for its own sake has badly failed to stop the destruction of habitats and the dwindling of species. It has failed largely because philosophical and scientific arguments rarely trump profits and the promise of jobs. And conservationists can’t usually put enough money on the table to meet commercial interests on their own terms. Pointing out the marketplace value of ecosystem services was initially just a way to remind people what was being lost in the process — benefits like flood control, water filtration, carbon sequestration, and species habitat. Then it dawned on someone that, by making it possible for people to buy and sell these services, we could save the world and turn a profit at the same time.

But the rising tide of enthusiasm for PES (or payment for ecosystem services) is now also eliciting alarm and criticism. The rhetoric is at times heated, particularly in Britain, where a government plan to sell off national forests had to be abandoned in the face of fierce public opposition. (The government’s own expert panel also found that it had “greatly undervalued” what it was proposing to sell.) Writing recently inThe Guardian, columnist and land rights activist George Monbiot denounced PES schemes as “another transfer of power to corporations and the very rich.” Also writing in The Guardian, Tony Juniper, a conservationist and corporate consultant, replied in effect that Monbiot and other critics should shut up, on the grounds that campaigning against payment for ecosystem services “could inadvertently strengthen the hand of those who believe nature has little or no value, moral, economic or otherwise.”

Not all critics reject the PES idea outright. Some say they’re merely making constructive criticisms of what they see as blind faith in new financial markets, and in global initiatives like the United Nations’ REDD mechanism (for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries).

The first mistake, says Kent H. Redford, an environmental consultant, is to assume that old-style conservation methods have failed. “They’ve worked in certain circumstances, in certain ways, for certain things.” They’re the reason, for instance, that state-sponsored protected areas now cover 25 percent of the land in Costa Rica, 27 percent in the United States (at the federal level alone), 30 percent in Tanzania and Guatemala, and 50 percent in Belize.

Writing in Conservation Biology, Redford and co-author William M. Adams catalogued some of the ways PES transactions can go wrong, beginning with the whole question of price. Traditional conservationists sought to protect forests and other landscapes primarily for their intrinsic value, says Redford. But those values are likely to carry less weight when even conservationists think first in economic terms. Many ecosystem services are also likely to be hard to price — for instance, the arguably beneficial effects on climate and agriculture (minus the deleterious impacts on health) when atmospheric dust from the African Sahel drifts across the Atlantic. And even if you can put a price on an ecosystem service, Redford and Adams argue, figuring out who has a legitimate right to sell it means picking winners and losers. In developing countries, indigenous communities may lack the documentation or the political clout to assert their ownership.

Payment schemes also risk creating perverse incentives, Redford and Adams warn. If the system pays landowners to bank carbon, they may plant non-native species, or genetically “improved” trees, to bank carbon faster. Or they may discourage natural phenomena that happen to be good for biodiversity, but bad for people, including such ecosystemdisservices as fire, drought, disease, or flood. Finally, Redford and Adams point out, the effects of climate change, “always the joker in the pack,” could toss carefully constructed economic schemes — and natural habitats — into disarray.

Stuart H. M. Butchart, a researcher at BirdLife International, replies that embracing the ecosystem services idea doesn’t necessarily mean abandoning the argument that species and habitats have intrinsic value. But making the economic case often “has more resonance” for decision-makers.

A study published last week in Science, co-authored by Butchart, also suggests why the PES idea now seems so urgent. To determine what it would cost to meet current targets set for the year 2020 under the international Convention on Biological Diversity, the study looked at the cost of protecting and down-listing threatened bird species. Then it extrapolated that preventing further loss of species across all plant and animal groups would cost $78 billion a year. That’s an order of magnitude above current conservation spending — but the study noted that it was only between 1 and 4 percent of the value of the ecosystem services being lost through habitat destruction every year.

PES proponents can also point to early success stories: Vittel-Nestlé Waters recognized a few years ago that its aquifer in northern France was being polluted by nitrate fertilizers and pesticides from nearby farms. It devised a scheme to pay farmers to change their methods and deliver the ecosystem service of unpolluted water. Beijing undertook a similar scheme in the catchment around one of its reservoirs, ahead of the 2008 Olympics. (It had previously tried anti-growth regulations and resettlements.)

But there isn’t always a wealthy corporation or a big city nearby willing to pick up the tab (for Vittel, $31.4 million over the first seven years), and other transactions are more complex. Norway, for instance, pledged $1 billion each to Brazil and Indonesia for forest preservation efforts under the REDD mechanism, partly to compensate for failing to meet its own greenhouse gas emissions targets. But the Norwegian government recently felt compelled to issue a public warning to both countries against backsliding on their forest preservation commitments.

Monbiot adds that making nature fungible, so one asset can be substituted for another, guarantees that they will be: “If a quarry company wants to destroy a rare meadow, for example, it can buy absolution by paying someone to create another somewhere else.” When governments and PES proponents talk about employing marketplace solutions instead of traditional regulatory approaches, he says, “what they are really talking about is shrinking democracy, shrinking public involvement in decision making, shrinking transparency and accountability. By handing it over to the market you are in effect handing it over to corporations and the very rich,” and to “a very plutocratic” decision-making process.

Pavan Sukhdev, a former international banker who has pioneered efforts to highlight the economic importance of biodiversity, says none of these criticisms is especially new. He has raised many of them himself and says the marketplace is working to address them. “It’s useful to hear criticisms, but the critics must remember one basic fact. It wasn’t Christopher Columbus who discovered America, it was the Native Indians who lived there. So critics should not think that they have invented knowledge. They should be a little more humble in their attitude. And understand that the people on the ground are professionals who have been working on this and thinking about this for quite some time.”

But no amount of financial tweaking or social engineering is likely to allay the deeper discomfort voiced by many PES critics with the whole idea of nature, in the words of one recent paper, “as a service provider fit to be incorporated into the global capital markets.” Or the notion, expressed by Jean-Christophe Vié, of the International Union for Conservation of Nature, that nature is “the largest company on Earth.” When you view nature in economic terms, as a provider in a sort of “master-servant” relationship, they suggest, you make a fundamental change not just in the world around us, but in ourselves.

Sian Sullivan, a University of London anthropologist, warns that past revolutions in capital investment, like the enclosure of common lands in eighteenth-century Britain, and the industrial revolution of the nineteenth century, resulted in “the shattering of peoples’ relationships with landscapes” and the conversion of rural folk into factory workers and service-providers for capital. In the ecosystem services movement, Sullivan warns, we are seeing “a major new wave of capture and enclosure of Nature by capital.” And it will come, she says, at the cost of profound cultural and psychological upheaval.

It may be, as some argue, that we have no better way to save the world. But the danger in the process is that we may lose our souls.

Far from random, evolution follows a predictable genetic pattern, Princeton researchers find (Princeton)

Posted October 25, 2012; 12:00 p.m.

by Morgan Kelly, Office of Communications

Evolution, often perceived as a series of random changes, might in fact be driven by a simple and repeated genetic solution to an environmental pressure that a broad range of species happen to share, according to new research.

Princeton University research published in the journal Science suggests that knowledge of a species’ genes — and how certain external conditions affect the proteins encoded by those genes — could be used to determine a predictable evolutionary pattern driven by outside factors. Scientists could then pinpoint how the diversity of adaptations seen in the natural world developed even in distantly related animals.

Andolfatto bug

The Princeton researchers sequenced the expression of a poison-resistant protein in insect species that feed on plants such as milkweed and dogbane that produce a class of steroid-like cardiotoxins called cardenolides as a natural defense. The insects surveyed spanned three orders: butterflies and moths (Lepidoptera); beetles and weevils (Coleoptera); and aphids, bed bugs, milkweed bugs and other sucking insects (Hemiptera). Above: Dogbane beetle(Photo courtesy of Peter Andolfatto)

“Is evolution predictable? To a surprising extent the answer is yes,” said senior researcher Peter Andolfatto, an assistant professor in Princeton’s Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and the Lewis-Sigler Institute for Integrative Genomics. He worked with lead author and postdoctoral research associate Ying Zhen, and graduate students Matthew Aardema and Molly Schumer, all from Princeton’s ecology and evolutionary biology department, as well as Edgar Medina, a biological sciences graduate student at the University of the Andes in Colombia.

The researchers carried out a survey of DNA sequences from 29 distantly related insect species, the largest sample of organisms yet examined for a single evolutionary trait. Fourteen of these species have evolved a nearly identical characteristic due to one external influence — they feed on plants that produce cardenolides, a class of steroid-like cardiotoxins that are a natural defense for plants such as milkweed and dogbane.

Though separated by 300 million years of evolution, these diverse insects — which include beetles, butterflies and aphids — experienced changes to a key protein called sodium-potassium adenosine triphosphatase, or the sodium-potassium pump, which regulates a cell’s crucial sodium-to-potassium ratio. The protein in these insects eventually evolved a resistance to cardenolides, which usually cripple the protein’s ability to “pump” potassium into cells and excess sodium out.

Andolfatto lab

Lead author Ying Zhen (foreground), Andolfatto (far left), fourth author and graduate student Molly Schumer (near left), and their co-authors sequenced and assembled all the expressed genes in 29 distantly related insect species, the largest sample of organisms yet examined for a single evolutionary trait. They used these sequences to predict how a certain protein would be encoded in the genes of 14 distantly related species that evolved a similar resistance to toxic plants. Similar techniques could be used to trace protein changes in a species’ DNA to understand how many diverse organisms evolved as a result of environmental factors. At right is research assistant Ilona Ruhl, who was not involved in the research. (Photo by Denise Applewhite)

Andolfatto and his co-authors first sequenced and assembled all the expressed genes in the studied species. They used these sequences to predict how the sodium-potassium pump would be encoded in each of the species’ genes based on cardenolide exposure.

Scientists using similar techniques could trace protein changes in a species’ DNA to understand how many diverse organisms evolved as a result of environmental factors, Andolfatto said. “To apply this approach more generally a scientist would have to know something about the genetic underpinnings of a trait and investigate how that trait evolves in large groups of species facing a common evolutionary problem,” Andolfatto said.

“For instance, the sodium-potassium pump also is a candidate gene location related to salinity tolerance,” he said. “Looking at changes to this protein in the right organisms could reveal how organisms have or may respond to the increasing salinization of oceans and freshwater habitats.”

Andolfatto bug

Milkweed tussock moth (Photo courtesy of Peter Andolfatto)

Jianzhi Zhang, a University of Michigan professor of ecology and evolutionary biology, said that the Princeton-based study shows that certain traits have a limited number of molecular mechanisms, and that numerous, distinct species can share the few mechanisms there are. As a result, it is likely that a cross-section of certain organisms can provide insight into the development of other creatures, he said.

“The finding of parallel evolution in not two, but numerous herbivorous insects increases the significance of the study because such frequent parallelism is extremely unlikely to have happened simply by chance,” said Zhang, who is familiar with the study but had no role in it.

“It shows that a common molecular mechanism is used by many different insects to defend themselves against the toxins in their food, suggesting that perhaps the number of potential mechanisms for achieving this goal is very limited,” he said. “That many different insects independently evolved the same molecular tricks to defend themselves against the same toxin suggests that studying a small number of well-chosen model organisms can teach us a lot about other species. Yes, evolution is predictable to a certain degree.”

Andolfatto and his co-authors examined the sodium-potassium pump protein because of its well-known sensitivity to cardenolides. In order to function properly in a wide variety of physiological contexts, cells must be able to control levels of potassium and sodium. Situated on the cell membrane, the protein generates a desired potassium to sodium ratio by “pumping” three sodium atoms out of the cell for every two potassium atoms it brings in.

Cardenolides disrupt the exchange of potassium and sodium, essentially shutting down the protein, Andolfatto said. The human genome contains four copies of the pump protein, and it is a candidate gene for a number of human genetic disorders, including salt-sensitive hypertension and migraines. In addition, humans have long used low doses of cardenolides medicinally for purposes such as controlling heart arrhythmia and congestive heart failure.

Andolfatto bug

Large milkweed bugs (Photo courtesy of Peter Andolfatto)

The Princeton researchers used the DNA microarray facility in the University’s Lewis-Sigler Institute for Integrative Genomics to sequence the expression of the sodium-potassium pump protein in insect species spanning three orders: butterflies and moths (Lepidoptera); beetles and weevils (Coleoptera); and aphids, bed bugs, milkweed bugs and other sucking insects (Hemiptera).

The researchers found that the genes of cardenolide-resistant insects incorporated various mutations that allowed it to resist the toxin. During the evolutionary timeframe examined, the sodium-potassium pump of insects feeding on dogbane and milkweed underwent 33 mutations at sites known to affect sensitivity to cardenolides. These mutations often involved similar or identical amino-acid changes that reduced susceptibility to the toxin. On the other hand, the sodium-potassium pump mutated just once in insects that do not feed on these plants.

Significantly, the researchers found that multiple gene duplications occurred in the ancestors of several of the resistant species. These insects essentially wound up with one conventional sodium-potassium pump protein and one “experimental” version, Andolfatto said. In these insects, the newer, hardier versions of the sodium-potassium pump are mostly expressed in gut tissue where they are likely needed most.

“These gene duplications are an elegant solution to the problem of adapting to environmental changes,” Andolfatto said. “In species with these duplicates, the organism is free to experiment with one copy while keeping the other constant, avoiding the risk that the new version of the protein will not perform its primary job as well.”

The researchers’ findings unify the generally separate ideas of what predominately drives genetic evolution: protein evolution, the evolution of the elements that control protein expression or gene duplication. This study shows that all three mechanisms can be used to solve the same evolutionary problem, Andolfatto said.

Central to the work is the breadth of species the researchers were able to examine using modern gene sequencing equipment, Andolfatto said.

“Historically, studying genetic evolution at this level has been conducted on just a handful of ‘model’ organisms such as fruit flies,” Andolfatto said. “Modern sequencing methods allowed us to approach evolutionary questions in a different way and come up with more comprehensive answers than had we examined one trait in any one organism.

“The power of what we’ve done is to survey diverse organisms facing a similar problem and find striking evidence for a limited number of possible solutions,” he said. “The fact that many of these solutions are used over and over again by completely unrelated species suggests that the evolutionary path is repeatable and predictable.”

The paper, “Parallel Molecular Evolution in an Herbivore Community,” was published Sept. 28 by Science. The research was supported by grants from the Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology, the National Science Foundation and the National Institutes of Health.

Scientific Illiteracy: Why The Italian Earthquake Verdict is Even Worse Than it Seems (Time)

By Jeffrey Kluger – Oct. 24, 2012

image: An aerial view of the destruction in the city of L'Aquila, central Italy, April 6, 2009. GUARDIA FORESTALE HANDOUT / AP. An aerial view of the destruction in the city of L’Aquila, central Italy, April 6, 2009.

Yesterday was a very good day for stupid — better than any it’s had in a while. Stupid gets fewer good days in the 21st century than it used to get, but it enjoyed a great ride for a long time — back in the day when there were witches to burn and demons to exorcise and astronomers to put on trial for saying that the Earth orbits around the sun.

But yesterday was a reminder of stupid’s golden era, when an Italian court sentenced six scientists and a government official to six years in prison on manslaughter charges, for failing to predict a 2009 earthquake that killed 300 people in the town of l’Aquila. The defendants are also required to pay €7.8 million ($10 million) in damages. “I’m dejected, despairing,” said one of the scientists, Enzo Boschi, in a statement to Italian media. “I still don’t understand what I’m accused of.”

As well he shouldn’t. The official charge brought against the researchers, who were members of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), was based on a meeting they had in the week leading up to the quake, at which they discussed the possible significance of recent seismic rumblings that had been detected  in the vicinity of l’Aquila. They concluded that it was “unlikely,” though not impossible, that a serious quake would occur there and thus did not order the evacuation of the town. This was both sound science and smart policy.

The earthquake division of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that the world is shaken by several million earthquakes each year, most of which escape notice either because they are too small or are in remote areas that are poorly monitored. An average of 50 earthquakes do manage to register on global seismographs every day, or about 18,000 annually. The overwhelming majority do not lead to major quakes and the technology does not exist to determine which ones will. The best earthquake forecasters can do is apply their knowledge and experience to each case, knowing that you can’t evacuate 50 towns or cities every day — and knowing too that sometimes you will unavoidably, even tragically, be wrong.

“If scientists can be held personally and legally responsible for situations where predictions don’t pan out, then it will be very hard to find scientists to stick their necks out in the future,” said David Oglesby, an associate professor on the earth sciences faculty of the University of California, Riverside, according to CNN.com.

The Italian seismologists are appealing their sentences and the global outcry over the wrong-headedness of the ruling will likely weigh in their favor. But whatever the outcome of their case, they’re really just the most recent victims of  the larger, ongoing problem of scientific illiteracy.

Just the day after the ruling came down, University of Michigan researchers released the latest results from the Generation X Report, a longitudinal study funded by the National Science Foundation that has been tracking the Gen X cohort since 1986. One of the smaller but more troubling data points in the new release was the finding that only 43% of Gen Xers (53% of males and 32% of females) can correctly identify a picture of a spiral galaxy — or know that we live in one.

Certainly, it’s possible to move successfully through life without that kind of knowledge. “Knowing your cosmic address is not a necessary job skill,” concedes study author Jon D. Miller of the University of Michigan, in a release accompanying the report. But not knowing it does suggest a certain lack of familiarity with the larger themes of the physical universe — and that has implications. It’s of a piece with the people who believe humans and dinosaurs co-existed, or the 50% of Americans who do not believe that human beings evolved from apes, or the 1 on 5 who, like Galileo’s inquisitors, don’t believe the Earth revolves around the sun.

More troubling than these types of individual illiteracy are the larger, population-wide ones that have a direct impact on public policy. As my colleague Bryan Walsh observed, the issue of climate change received not a single mention in all three of this year’s presidential debates, and has barely been flicked at on the campaign trail. Part of that might simply be combat fatigue; we’ve been having the climate argument for 25 years. But the fact is there shouldn’t be any argument at all. Serious scientists who doubt that climate change is a real threat are down to just a handful of wild breeding pairs. But sowing doubt about the matter has been a thriving industry of conservatives for decades — most recently in the form of a faux scientific study published by the Cato Institute, that purports to debunk climate science as fatally flawed at best or a hoax at worst. Speaking of a federally funded and Congressionally mandated report by the U.S. Global Change Research Program that responsibly reviewed the state of climate science, the Cato publication argues:

It is immediately obvious that the intent of the report is not to provide a accurate [sic] scientific assessment of the current and future impacts of climate change in the United States, but to confuse the reader with a loose handling of normal climate[italics theirs]…presented as climate change events.

Well, no, but never mind. Our willingness to believe in junk science like this exacts a very real price — in an electorate that won’t demand action from its leaders on a matter of global significance; in parents who leave their babies unvaccinated because someone sent them a blog post fraudulently linking vaccines to autism; in young gays and lesbians forced to submit to “conversion therapy” to change the unchangeable; in a team of good Italian scientists who may spend six years in jail for failing to predict the unpredictable. No one can make us get smart about things we don’t want to get smart about. But every day we fail to do so is another good day for stupid — and another very bad one for all of us.

Nate Silver’s ‘Signal and the Noise’ Examines Predictions (N.Y.Times)

Mining Truth From Data Babel

By LEONARD MLODINOW

Published: October 23, 2012

A friend who was a pioneer in the computer games business used to marvel at how her company handled its projections of costs and revenue. “We performed exhaustive calculations, analyses and revisions,” she would tell me. “And we somehow always ended with numbers that justified our hiring the people and producing the games we had wanted to all along.” Those forecasts rarely proved accurate, but as long as the games were reasonably profitable, she said, you’d keep your job and get to create more unfounded projections for the next endeavor.

Alessandra Montalto/The New York Times

THE SIGNAL AND THE NOISE

Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don’t

By Nate Silver

Illustrated. 534 pages. The Penguin Press. $27.95.

This doesn’t seem like any way to run a business — or a country. Yet, as Nate Silver, a blogger for The New York Times, points out in his book, “The Signal and the Noise,” studies show that from the stock pickers on Wall Street to the political pundits on our news channels, predictions offered with great certainty and voluminous justification prove, when evaluated later, to have had no predictive power at all. They are the equivalent of monkeys tossing darts.

As one who has both taught and written about such phenomena, I have long felt like leaning out my window to shout, “Network”-style, “I’m as mad as hell and I’m not going to take this anymore!” Judging by Mr. Silver’s lively prose — from energetic to outraged — I think he feels the same way.

Nate Silver. Robert Gauldin

The book’s title comes from electrical engineering, where a signal is something that conveys information, while noise is an unwanted, unmeaningful or random addition to the signal. Problems arise when the noise is as strong as, or stronger than, the signal. How do you recognize which is which?

Today the data we have available to make predictions has grown almost unimaginably large: it represents 2.5 quintillion bytes of data each day, Mr. Silver tells us, enough zeros and ones to fill a billion books of 10 million pages each. Our ability to tease the signal from the noise has not grown nearly as fast. As a result, we have plenty of data but lack the ability to extract truth from it and to build models that accurately predict the future that data portends.

Mr. Silver, just 34, is an expert at finding signal in noise. He is modest about his accomplishments, but he achieved a high profile when he created a brilliant and innovative computer program for forecasting the performance of baseball players, and later a system for predicting the outcome of political races. His political work had such success in the 2008 presidential election that it brought him extensive media coverage as well as a home at The Times for his blog, FiveThiryEight.com, though some conservatives have been critical of his methods during this election cycle.

His knack wasn’t lost on book publishers, who, as he puts it, approached him “to capitalize on the success of books such as ‘Moneyball’ and ‘Freakonomics.’ ” Publishers are notorious for pronouncing that Book A will sell just a thousand copies, while Book B will sell a million, and then proving to have gotten everything right except for which was A and which was B. In this case, to judge by early sales, they forecast Mr. Silver’s potential correctly, and to judge by the friendly tone of the book, it couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy.

Healthily peppered throughout the book are answers to its subtitle, “Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don’t”: we are fooled into thinking that random patterns are meaningful; we build models that are far more sensitive to our initial assumptions than we realize; we make approximations that are cruder than we realize; we focus on what is easiest to measure rather than on what is important; we are overconfident; we build models that rely too heavily on statistics, without enough theoretical understanding; and we unconsciously let biases based on expectation or self-interest affect our analysis.

Regarding why models do succeed, Mr. Silver provides just bits of advice (other than to avoid the failings listed above). Mostly he stresses an approach to statistics named after the British mathematician Thomas Bayes, who created a theory of how to adjust a subjective degree of belief rationally when new evidence presents itself.

Suppose that after reading a review, you initially believe that there is a 75 percent chance that you will like a certain book. Then, in a bookstore, you read the book’s first 10 pages. What, then, are the chances that you will like the book, given the additional information that you liked (or did not like) what you read? Bayes’s theory tells you how to update your initial guess in light of that new data. This may sound like an exercise that only a character in “The Big Bang Theory” would engage in, but neuroscientists have found that, on an unconscious level, our brains do naturally use Bayesian prediction.

Mr. Silver illustrates his dos and don’ts through a series of interesting essays that examine how predictions are made in fields including chess, baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake analysis and politics. A chapter on poker reveals a strange world in which a small number of inept but big-spending “fish” feed a much larger community of highly skilled sharks competing to make their living off the fish; a chapter on global warming is one of the most objective and honest analyses I’ve seen. (Mr. Silver concludes that the greenhouse effect almost certainly exists and will be exacerbated by man-made CO2 emissions.)

So with all this going for the book, as my mother would say, what’s not to like?

The main problem emerges immediately, in the introduction, where I found my innately Bayesian brain wondering: Where is this going? The same question came to mind in later essays: I wondered how what I was reading related to the larger thesis. At times Mr. Silver reports in depth on a topic of lesser importance, or he skates over an important topic only to return to it in a later chapter, where it is again discussed only briefly.

As a result, I found myself losing the signal for the noise. Fortunately, you will not be tested on whether you have properly grasped the signal, and even the noise makes for a good read.

Leonard Mlodinow is the author of “Subliminal: How Your Unconscious Mind Rules Your Behavior” and “The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives.”

Itália condena sete cientistas por não prever terremoto (Folha de São Paulo)

JC e-mail 4609, de 23 de Outubro de 2012.

Em 2009, o abalo sísmico em L’Aquila matou mais de 300 pessoas e deixou cerca de 65 mil desabrigadas. Justiça alega que os especialistas foram negligentes.

Um tribunal da Itália condenou ontem (22) sete cientistas a cumprir seis anos de prisão por não terem previsto o terremoto que atingiu o país em 2009, na cidade de L’Aquila, região de Abruzzo. Mais de 300 pessoas morreram.

Todos os cientistas, que vão recorrer em liberdade, eram membros da Comissão Nacional para Previsão e Prevenção de Riscos. Foram acusados de negligência, por não terem analisado corretamente as possibilidades do terremoto acontecer e, assim, alertar as autoridades.

Entre os sete condenados estão grandes nomes da ciência italiana, como o professor Enzo Boschi, que presidiu o Instituto Nacional de Geofísica e Vulcanologia, e o vice-diretor da Defesa Civil, Bernardo de Bernardinis.

Cientistas de diversas partes do mundo protestaram contra a decisão do tribunal em condená-los por homicídio culposo (quando não há intenção de matar). Em protesto, uma carta com mais de 5.000 assinaturas de cientistas foi entregue ao presidente italiano, Giorgio Napolitano, alegando que a ciência não possui meios para prever terremotos, e que o processo pode impedir que futuramente especialistas aconselhem governos a respeito de riscos sísmicos.

Imprevisível – Segundo a técnica de sismologia do Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas da USP (IAG-USP) Célia Fernandes, é muito difícil identificar o momento exato em que irá acontecer um abalo sísmico. “Todos os profissionais de sismologia trabalham com o objetivo de prever terremotos, mas não existe regra na natureza. Mesmo a recorrência de sismos não é garantia de que um terremoto de grande magnitude está prestes a acontecer”, afirma.

Os cientistas se reuniram na cidade de L’Aquila em 31 de março de 2009, seis dias antes do terremoto, e não comunicaram sobre a chance de um abalo sísmico. Para o tribunal, eles falharam por terem subestimado os riscos, limitando a ação das autoridades públicas, que não tiveram tempo suficiente para tomar medidas necessárias para proteger a população.

Segundo os promotores, uma série de tremores de baixo nível atingiu a região nos meses que antecederam o terremoto e isso deveria ter sido interpretado pelos especialistas como um sinal do que estava para acontecer.

O terremoto de magnitude 6,3 graus atingiu L’Aquila em abril de 2009. Além das mortes, também feriu outras 1.500 pessoas. Estima-se que 65 mil tenham ficado desabrigadas. A condenação dos cientistas ainda não é definitiva. Eles devem entrar com um recurso.

*   *   *

Artigos:

David Alexander. An evaluation of medium-term recovery processes after the 6 April 2009 earthquake in L’Aquila, Central Italy. Environmental Hazards, iFirst.

Abstract

This article uses the earthquake of 6 April 2009 at L’Aquila, central Italy (magnitude 6.3) as a case history of processes of recovery from disaster. These are evaluated according to criteria linked to both vulnerability analysis and disaster risk-reduction processes. The short- and medium-term responses to the disaster are evaluated, and 11 criticisms are made of the Italian Government’s policy on transitional shelter, which has led to isolation, social fragmentation and deprivation of services. Government policy on disaster risk is further evaluated in the light of the UNISDR Hyogo Framework for Action. Lack of governance and democratic participation is evident in the response to disasters. It is concluded that without an adequately planned strategy for managing the long-term recovery process, events such as the L’Aquila earthquake open up Pandora’s box of unwelcome consequences, including economic stagnation, stalled reconstruction, alienation of the local population, fiscal deprivation and corruption. Such phenomena tend to perpetuate rather than reduce vulnerability to disasters.

“[…] science and scientists were not on trial. The hypothesis of culpability being tested in the courts referred to the failure to adopt a precautionary approach in the face of clear indications of impending seismic impact, not failure to predict an earthquake, and this is amply documented in official records”.

David E. Alexander. The L’Aquila Earthquake of 6 April 2009 and Italian Government Policy on Disaster Response. Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research, Vol. 2, Iss. 4, 2010

Abstract

This paper describes the impact of the earthquake that struck the central Italian city of L’Aquila on 6 April 2009, killing 308 people and leaving 67 500 homeless. The pre-impact, emergency, and early recovery phases are discussed in terms of the nature and effectiveness of government policy. Disaster risk reduction (DRR) in Italy is evaluated in relation to the structure of civil protection and changes wrought by both the L’Aquila disaster and public scandals connected with the misappropriation of funds. Six of the most important lessons are derived from this analysis and related to DRR needs both in Italy and elsewhere in the world.

“As articulated at the meeting of the Commission on Major Risks on 31 March 2009, the Italian Government’s position was unequivocal: there was no cause for alarm. This attitude permeated its way down the ranks of the civil protection system. Then, at 00:30 hrs on Monday 6 April 2010, a tremor that was larger than usual shook L’Aquila. Residents rushed out of their houses in alarm. The strategy adopted by civil protection authorities was to tour the streets with loudspeakers advising people to calm down and return home. In the town of Pagánica, less than 10 km northeast of L’Aquila, residents did exactly that: in the ensuing main shock three hours later, eight of them died and 40 were seriously injured. In L’Aquila city I investigated one case in which a young lady had decided to remain out of doors after the foreshock, while her parents returned home. Their bodies were recovered by firemen from a space barely 15 cm wide into which the building had compressed as it collapsed”.

EUA reavaliam fator racial como critério a vaga em universidades (Folha de São Paulo)

JC e-mail 4608, de 22 de Outubro de 2012
Folha de São Paulo – 20/10/2012

Suprema Corte deve se pronunciar sobre caso de aluna que se considerou preterida no Texas. Enquanto isso, no Brasil, reitor da UFF afirma que lei de cotas é um retrocesso.

As sardas de Abigail Fisher, 22, podem fazer história. Desde o último dia 10, a Suprema Corte dos EUA examina sua queixa contra a Universidade do Texas por tê-la preterido supostamente por causa de sua cor de pele, e o veredicto pode acabar com as ações afirmativas nas universidades públicas americanas após cinco décadas em vigor.

A decisão sairá só em 2013, mas o caso acirra o debate entre defensores e detratores de critérios como raça, classe social e renda para a admissão em universidades públicas. A última vez em que o Supremo julgou o tema foi em 2003, quando, em uma queixa envolvendo a Universidade do Michigan, invalidou o uso de cotas, mas considerou constitucional o uso de raça entre os critérios de seleção.

Nos últimos 15 anos, cinco Estados americanos proibiram a ação afirmativa na admissão de universitários. No próximo dia 6, quando os EUA podem reeleger seu primeiro presidente negro (e escolhem entre dois ex-alunos da prestigiosa Escola de Direito de Harvard), Oklahoma decide se entrará para a lista.

Dois Estados trocaram a ação afirmativa por um programa de cunho socioeconômico: um percentual dos melhores estudantes de cada escola de ensino médio é automaticamente admitido. Na Flórida, 20%; no Texas, onde Fisher queria estudar, 10%. A Universidade do Texas, que Fisher almejava em 2008, adota esse critério para 81% de seus alunos.

Os demais 19% passam por um sistema de admissão que leva em conta, além do desempenho nas provas, aptidões como música, esportes e capacidade de liderança, trabalho voluntário, renda, situação familiar e raça.

A estudante, que estava entre os 15% melhores de sua escola e acabaria depois se formando pela Universidade Estadual da Louisiana, foi reprovada e sentiu-se alvo de preconceito por ser branca (a universidade alega que ela não tinha as qualificações). Em 2009, abriu o processo que, após veredictos negativos em duas instâncias, chega à Suprema Corte. Juristas preveem decisão apertada.

Especialistas – Para a professora de direito de Harvard Lani Guinier, uma das maiores especialistas em ação afirmativa e acesso ao ensino superior dos EUA, o debate corrente foca uma questão secundária. “Estamos preocupados com algo periférico no processo de admissão universitário. Deveríamos pensar é na missão dessas instituições e em como cumpri-la, não no mérito relativo dos inscritos.”

O que Guinier defende é que, se uma universidade tem como objetivo formar líderes -como diz a Universidade do Texas, pivô do caso na Suprema Corte dos EUA que pode reverter a ação afirmativa-, ela deveria procurar não só notas altas, mas vivências complementares, que ampliem a capacidade de resolver problemas em equipe.

Na visão da jurista, os exames de admissão nos EUA (que incluem testes de inglês e matemática, além de critérios mais subjetivos) servem diretamente uma elite bem educada, perpetuando o abismo educacional.

Mas a discussão, diz ela, não deveria se limitar a raça. “Se é hora de avançarmos [como alguns defendem], é hora também de repensarmos como admitimos todo mundo nas faculdades”, rebate. “A experiência dos negros aqui é como a dos canários que os mineiros levavam para o subsolo: se o ar se tornasse tóxico, eles morriam antes, mas quem continuasse ali morreria do mesmo jeito.”

Guinier sugere fixar um patamar necessário de conhecimento para entrar na universidade e depois disso o sorteio das vagas entre os aptos. “A questão é qual o papel das universidades no século 21 nas democracias. Elas querem escolher quem já é brilhante ou ser como o corpo de fuzileiros navais, que pega quem passa nos critérios básicos porque aceita a responsabilidade de formar?”

David Neumark, um professor de economia da Universidade da Califórnia que estuda o aspecto econômico da ação afirmativa, diz que em meio à cacofonia há pouca evidência ainda de que a política tenha consequências econômicas positivas ou, como alguns dizem, negativas.

Mas ressalta que, além de ver um imperativo de justiça, muitas escolas alegam que a diversidade agrega valor. Neumark acha mais factível a adoção de critérios socioeconômicos, que acabariam beneficiando largamente negros e hispânicos.

Mas rejeita a tese de alguns críticos de que a ação afirmativa prejudica, no longo prazo, aqueles que deveria beneficiar. “Tampouco há provas”, afirma. Na Califórnia, após o veto à ação afirmativa, em 1997, o número de calouros negros caiu. Na Universidade de Berkeley, por exemplo, foi de 7% em 1996 para 4% em 2010.

No Brasil – O reitor da Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Roberto Salles, afirmou ontem que a lei de cotas sancionada pela presidente Dilma Rousseff representará um retrocesso para a universidade. Ele disse temer que a medida traga problemas à instituição e cobrou o aumento de recursos para as universidades.

Segundo Salles, a UFF irá reservar 12,5% das vagas na próxima seleção “por imposição legal”. Em setembro, o reitor tinha dito que não iria acatar as cotas. Ontem, ele afirmou que mudou de ideia porque o procurador da universidade considerou que não há como recorrer ao STF (Supremo Tribunal Federal), que julgou as cotas constitucionais.

O percentual de 12,5% é o mínimo exigido pela lei em 2013 -com o passar dos anos, será elevado para 50%. Para o reitor, porém, o novo sistema é pior do que o que vinha sendo adotado pela UFF, que desde 2007 tinha políticas afirmativas próprias.

Para 2013, a universidade tinha decidido reservar 25% das vagas para candidatos oriundos do ensino médio de escolas públicas da rede estadual e municipal e com renda familiar per capita inferior a 1,5 salário mínimo.

Ele disse que os critérios da universidade são mais adequados do que os impostos pela nova lei, que beneficiará egressos de todas as escolas públicas, inclusive técnicas e federais, de melhor desempenho. “Esses alunos já competem em igualdade com os das escolas privadas. Os prejudicados serão os alunos das redes municipais e estaduais.” A lei prevê que metade das vagas reservadas seja para pretos, pardos e indígenas.

Salles disse que, para não prejudicar os alunos de baixa renda das redes municipais e estaduais, a universidade reservará mais 10% das vagas de cada curso para esse público. Com isso, as cotas somarão 22,5% das cercas de dez mil vagas em 2013. “Os congressistas criam essa lei, mas não preveem mais recursos para as universidades”, criticou ele, que tachou ainda de “ridícula” a discussão para duplicar o percentual destinado à educação em dez anos, para 10% do PIB. “A gente precisa dos recursos já.”

Os últimos 300 Muriquis: o macaco é um dos animais com maior risco de extinção no mundo (O Globo)

JC e-mail 4609, de 23 de Outubro de 2012.

Pesquisadores vão mapear os locais no Rio onde o maior primata das Américas e candidato a mascote das Olimpíadas de 2016 resiste.

Restam apenas 300 muriquis no estado do Rio de Janeiro. Eles são ameaçados pela diminuição das áreas de floresta, pela caça e por doenças transmitidas por outros bichos. Correndo risco de extinção, o maior primata das Américas e candidato a mascote dos Jogos Olímpicos de 2016 ainda padece com a falta generalizada de informações. Pesquisadores vão a campo a partir de janeiro e, num prazo de dois anos, pretendem concluir o primeiro censo populacional e o georreferenciamento do mono-carvoeiro, como também é conhecido esse macaco exclusivamente brasileiro.

Uma força-tarefa com 20 pesquisadores vai percorrer 350 mil hectares de florestas no estado. Além do censo e do georreferenciamento, eles pretendem coletar material genético, observar hábitos, costumes, analisar a dieta, identificar os vegetais que servem de alimento. Tudo isso para entender como se dá a interação dos muriquis com o meio ambiente. O trabalho, que custará em torno de R$ 5,5 milhões, vai servir de base científica para a criação de um plano estadual de proteção do macaco. Este documento deverá orientar desde a localização de novas áreas de preservação até a escolha das espécies de plantas usadas em programas de reflorestamento, sempre levando em consideração as preferências do animal.

A iniciativa faz parte de um conjunto de outras medidas, que incluem a campanha para a escolha da mascote dos Jogos Olímpicos, programas de educação ambiental e propagandas, que pretendem fazer do muriqui um animal conhecido e protegido. A meta é criar as condições que permitam aumento da população e, principalmente, a retirada da espécie da lista de extinção.

“O muriqui servirá de modelo para outros estudos científicos, com certeza. O boto-cinza, por exemplo, também receberá investimentos do estado para pesquisas científicas”, antecipa o secretário estadual do Ambiente, Carlos Minc.

O projeto, chamado oficialmente de “Conservação do Muriqui no Rio de Janeiro: levantamento da situação da espécie para a elaboração de um plano de ação estadual”, mobilizará especialistas da ONG Ecoatlântica, do Instituto Estadual do Ambiente (Inea), do Jardim Botânico, dos centros de primatologias do Brasil e do Rio de Janeiro, da Fiocruz, UFF e UFRJ, entre outras instituições.

Não vai ser fácil mapear os hábitos do muriqui. Ao menor barulho, ele foge, com uma agilidade tão grande que é praticamente impossível persegui-lo. A desenvoltura do animal na mata, que faz lembrar a agilidade de um atleta olímpico, é um dos argumentos para fazer do muriqui a mascote dos Jogos Olímpicos do Rio. Para observar de perto esse bicho arredio, os pesquisadores terão que escalar montanhas e se embrenharem em locais de difícil acesso.

A estratégia será dividir os especialistas em dez grupos. Nas primeiras incursões, eles se espalharão pelo estado em busca de relatos e de vestígios dos muriquis. Nos locais nos quais haja alguma probabilidade de encontrar o macaco, todos eles se reunirão para fazer a varredura para a contagem e coleta de material. Quando for possível, será realizada a captura, com o auxílio de armas que lançam tranquilizantes. Nestes casos, será feita a coleta de sangue e marcação do animal.

“O muriqui é um banco genético. A gente não tem ideia hoje de como está realmente a área verde. Por exemplo, quando fizermos o estudo das fezes e analisarmos as sementes encontradas, tenho quase certeza de que identificaremos espécies novas da flora da Mata Atlântica”, explica Paula Breves, veterinária e presidente da ONG Ecoatlântica. “O Jardim Botânico ficará responsável pela análise da flora. A UFF fará o georreferenciamento das informações, mapa de ameaças, do estudo botânico. Serão muitos mapas. O pessoal da Fiocruz vai desenvolver ações de educação ambiental. Por exemplo, como trabalhar com agricultores a prevenção das queimadas.”

Os especialistas pretendem comprovar, ainda, que o Rio é o único estado da federação no qual é possível encontrar não apenas o muriqui-do-sul (Brachyteles arachnoides), que também ocorre nas matas de São Paulo e extremo Norte do Paraná, como também o muriqui-do-norte (Brachyteles hypoxanthus).

“Nenhum outro estado tem a ocorrência das duas outras espécies do animal. Vamos tentar identificar o muriqui-do-norte em Itatiaia”, antecipa Daniela Pires e Albuquerque, técnica do Inea.

Há diferenças físicas entre os muriquis-do-norte, mais despigmentado, e do sul, aparentemente mais escuro. O estudo vai permitir uma comparação entre ambas as espécies, já que hoje é grande a desinformação em relação ao muriqui-do-sul. Tanto que uma das hipóteses a ser verificada é a de que não se tratam de duas espécies distintas, mas de uma subespécie.

“Temos grandes dúvidas se realmente são duas espécies distintas. Ou se um deles é uma subespécie. Vamos tentar entender isso, porque até então não há um estudo genético do muriqui-do-sul”, salienta Paula. “A pesquisa não vai gerar informações apenas sobre o muriqui. Qualquer animal que aparecer será identificado. Vamos usar câmeras para tirar fotos de qualquer bicho que se mover em uma determinada área. Até pássaros, o que for observado, anotaremos. Será um resultado secundário, que vai gerar informação importante para os parques.”

Os pesquisadores terão atenção especial em áreas nas quais haja indícios da presença do muriqui, sobretudo os parques estaduais do Desengano (que se espalha por Santa Maria Madalena, São Fidélis e Campos), dos Três Picos (Cachoeiras de Macacu, Friburgo, Teresópolis, Guapimirim e Silva Jardim), Cunhambebe (Mangaratiba, Rio Claro, Angra e Itaguaí); parques nacionais da Serra dos Órgãos (Teresópolis, Guapimirim, Magé e Petrópolis), de Itatiaia; Área de Proteção Ambiental do Cairuçu; e Reserva Ecológica da Juatinga (ambas em Paraty).

“Este estudo de campo é fundamental para a preservação do muriqui”, resume Paula. “Ainda temos relatos de caça, em Cunhambebe, há um mês. O legal é que já estamos recebendo telefones de proprietários de áreas com mata perguntando o que eles podem fazer para ajudar o muriqui, o que eles podem plantar. Isso é fantástico.”

Outro importante local para especialistas é o Centro de Primatologia do Rio de Janeiro (CPRJ), em Guapimirim. Mantido pelo Inea, há 22 espécies de primatas e 230 animais. Porém, faltam pesquisadores. Apenas o chefe da unidade, Alcides Pissinatti, desenvolve trabalhos científicos, dividindo seu tempo com a administração local. O CPRJ recebe estudiosos visitantes, mas sem vínculo com o local. Está prevista a contratação de um veterinário no próximo concurso público, diz o Inea.

“Com os muriquis em cativeiro, é possível conhecer a biologia e o comportamento da espécie. Temos seis animais, sendo que o último nasceu no dia 5 de fevereiro de 2012”, relata Pissinatti. “O ideal seria contar com cerca de 30 animais, que não podem ser da mesma família.”

Falta de espaço – Diferentemente do muriqui do Estado do Rio, que sofre com a falta de informações científicas, há cerca de 30 anos o muriqui-do-norte (Brachyteles hypoxanthus), sobretudo os que vivem na reserva Feliciano Miguel Abdala, em Caratinga, Leste de Minas Gerais, vêm sendo estudado pelo grupo de pesquisadores liderados pela primatóloga americana Karen Strier, pesquisadora e professora da Universidade de Wisconsin-Madison. Neste período, a população do macaco pulou de 60 para cerca de 200. Se, por um lado, o crescimento revela o sucesso das medidas de preservação; por outro, mostra os problemas de manter o muriqui confinado em pequenas unidades de conservação. Já falta espaço.

Esta situação está provocando mudanças de comportamento do muriqui. Os macacos ficam mais no chão, para terem outros locais além da copa das árvores. E procuram matas vizinhas, nem sempre seguras. Por este motivo, os ambientalistas querem criar um corredor ligando as unidades de conservação, com o objetivo de dar mais espaço para o maior primata das Américas se expandir.

“A mata tem seus limites. Crescendo a população, para onde vão os muriquis? É a mesma situação de uma família, quando ela cresce, precisa ir para uma casa maior ou encontrar outro espaço”, explica Karen.

Pesquisadores também constataram o aumento do número de machos. Para a especialista, esta pode ser uma forma de controle do número de macacos. Se a população crescesse muito, haveria disputa entre os animais. Neste momento, a tendência é que o índice de crescimento da população diminua.

“Ninguém entende como esse mecanismo funciona, mas, quando há excesso de população, nascem mais machos. A população cresce mais quando há mais fêmeas”, revela Karen. “Os muriquis são as espécies mais pacíficas do mundo. Eles têm um comportamento sem agressividade, não brigam. Os dentes caninos são muito pequenos. Entre eles, em vários aspectos, não tem hierarquia. Vivem numa sociedade igualitária.”

Em vez de brigar, os muriquis têm o hábito de abraçar uns aos outros. De acordo com a pesquisadora, esta é uma forma de cumprimentar o companheiro. E, se algo os assusta, eles se abraçam para se sentirem mais confiantes. Os machos não têm dominância sobre as fêmeas. Quando copulam, os machos da maioria das outras espécies ficam muito agressivos, há forte competição. No caso do muriqui, não há disputa entre machos, que compartilham as fêmeas. Pesquisadores relatam casos em que os machos esperam em fila a sua vez de ficar com a fêmea.

“Já vi cinco machos copulando no prazo de 11 minutos, sem briga alguma. Por isso os muriquis já foram comparados com os hippies: paz e amor”, conta Karen. “Eles nos mostram que é possível viver numa sociedade, até mesmo em densidade demográfica alta, sem brigas, sem disputas. E com muita tolerância, paciência e pacifismo. Hoje em dia me inspiro no comportamento do muriqui. Quando eu percebo após 30 anos de trabalho, que a espécie está crescendo e que o problema agora é procura novas áreas protegidas para esta população, fico mais esperançosa. Existe solução, é fácil. Os próprios macacos estão nos mostrando de que eles precisam: mais florestas preservadas e protegidas.”

As ‘coisas indescritíveis’ do mundo do consumo (OESP)

Por Washington Novaes – 19 de outubro de 2012

O historiador Eric J. Hobsbawn, que morreu no começo da semana passada, deixou livros em que caracterizou de forma contundente os tempos que estamos vivendo. “Quando as pessoas não têm mais eixos de futuros sociais acabam fazendo coisas indescritíveis”, escreveu ele no ensaio Barbárie: Manual do Usuário. Ou, então, “aí está a essência da questão: resolver os problemas sem referências do passado”. Por isso, certamente Hobsbawn não se espantaria com a notícia estampada no jornal O Estado de S. Paulo poucos dias antes de sua morte: Na Espanha, cadeados nas latas de lixo (27/9). “Com cada vez mais pessoas vivendo de restos, prefeitura (de Madri) tranca as latas como medida de saúde pública.” Nada haveria a estranhar num país onde a taxa de desemprego está por volta de 25%, 22% das famílias vivem na pobreza e 600 mil não têm nenhuma renda.

E que pensaria o historiador com a notícia (Estado, 26/9) de que as autoridades de Bulawato, no Zimbábue (África), “pediram aos cidadãos que sincronizem as descargas de seus vasos sanitários para poupar água. (…) Os moradores devem esvaziar os vasos apenas a cada três dias e em horários determinados”? Provavelmente Hobsbawn não se espantaria, informado das estatísticas da ONU segundo as quais 23% da população mundial (mais de 1,5 bilhão de pessoas) defeca ao ar livre por não ter instalações sanitárias em sua casa. As do Zimbábue ainda estão à frente.

E da China que pensaria ele ao ler nos jornais (22/9) que a prefeitura de Xinjian, no leste do país, “está sob intensa crítica da opinião pública após enjaular dezenas de mendigos no mesmo lugar durante um festival religioso”? Ao lado da foto das jaulas nas ruas com mendigos encarcerados, a explicação de autoridades de que assim fizeram porque os pedintes assediavam peregrinos e corriam risco de ser atropelados ou pisoteados. Mas “entraram nas jaulas voluntariamente”. Será para não correr riscos desse tipo que “quatro estrangeiros de origem ignorada” vivem há três meses no aeroporto de Cumbica, em São Paulo, recusando-se a dizer sua nacionalidade e procedência (Folha de S.Paulo, 29/9)? “Em tempos de transformação”, disse o psicanalista Leopold Nosek a Sonia Racy (Estado, 7/10), “quando o velho não existe mais e o novo ainda não se estruturou, criam-se os monstros”.

Para onde se caminhará? Na Europa, diz a Organização Internacional do Trabalho que, com todo o sul do continente em crise, o desemprego na faixa dos 15 aos 24 anos crescerá 22% em 2013, pouco menos no ano seguinte. Nos Estados Unidos, a taxa de desemprego entre jovens está em 17,4%, talvez caia para 13,35% até 2017 (Agência Estado, 5/9). O desemprego médio nos 17 países da zona do euro subiu para 11,4%.

Pulemos para o lado de cá. Um em cada cinco brasileiros entre 18 e 25 anos não trabalha nem estuda (Estado, 26/9). São 5,3 milhões de jovens. Computados também os que buscam trabalho, chega-se a 7,2 milhões. As mulheres são maioria. E o déficit ocorre embora o País tenha gerado 2,2 milhões de empregos formais em 2011.

As estatísticas são alarmantes. A revista New Scientist (28/7) diz que 1% da população norte-americana controla 40% da riqueza. Já existem 1.226 bilionários no mundo. “Nós somos os 99%”, diz o movimento de protesto Occupy. Entre suas estatísticas estão as que os relatórios do Programa das Nações Unidas para o Desenvolvimento (Pnud) vêm publicando desde a década de 1990: pouco mais de 250 pessoas, com ativos superiores a US$ 1 bilhão cada, têm, juntas, mais do que o produto bruto conjunto dos 40 países mais pobres, onde vivem 600 milhões de pessoas. Já a metade mais pobre da população mundial fica com 1% da renda global total. Menos de 20% da população mundial, concentrada nos países industrializados, consome 80% dos recursos totais. E 92 mil pessoas já acumulam em paraísos fiscais cerca de US$ 21 trilhões, afirma a Tax Justice Network.

E que se fará, com a população mundial aumentando e os recursos naturais – inclusive terra para plantar alimentos – escasseando? É cada vez maior o número de economistas que já mencionam com frequência a “crise da finitude de recursos”. Os preços médios de alimentos “devem dobrar até 2030, incluídos milho (mais 177%), trigo (mais 120% e arroz (107%)”, alerta a ONG Oxfam (Instituto Carbono Brasil, 6/9). 775 milhões de jovens e adultos são analfabetos e não têm como aumentar a renda (Rádio ONU, 10/9).

De volta outra vez ao nosso terreiro, vemos que “mais de 90% das cidades estão sem plano para o lixo” (Estado, 2/8). Na cidade de São Paulo, 90% do lixo reciclável vai para aterros sanitários (CicloVivo, 10/8). Diariamente 5,4 bilhões de litros de esgotos não tratados são descartados. Perto de metade dos domicílios não é ligada a redes de esgotos. A perda de água nas redes de distribuição (por furos, vazamentos, etc.) está por volta de 40% do total. Mas 23% das cidades racionam água, segundo o IBGE (Estado, 20/10/2011). E grande parte da água do Rio São Francisco que será transposta irá para localidades com essas perdas – antes de corrigi-las. E com o líquido custando muito mais caro, já que muita energia será necessária para elevá-lo aos pontos de destino.

Enquanto isso, a campanha eleitoral correu morna em praticamente todo o País, com candidatos fazendo de conta que vivemos na terra da promissão, não precisamos de planos diretores rigorosos nas cidades, não precisamos responsabilizar quem mais consome – e mais gera resíduos -, não precisamos impedir a impermeabilização do solo das cidades nem impedir a ocupação de áreas de risco.

“A sociedade de consumo”, escreveu Hobsbawn, “interessa-se apenas pelo que pode comprar agora e no futuro”. Mas terá de resolver o problema de 1 bilhão de idosos em dez anos (Fundo de População das Nações Unidas, 1.º/10).

Washington Novaes é jornalista.

(O Estado de S. Paulo)

L’Aquila quake: Italy scientists guilty of manslaughter (BBC)

22 October 2012

The BBC’s Alan Johnston in Rome says the prosecution argued that the scientists were “just too reassuring”

Six Italian scientists and an ex-government official have been sentenced to six years in prison over the 2009 deadly earthquake in L’Aquila.

A regional court found them guilty of multiple manslaughter.

Prosecutors said the defendants gave a falsely reassuring statement before the quake, while the defence maintained there was no way to predict major quakes.

The 6.3 magnitude quake devastated the city and killed 309 people.

Many smaller tremors had rattled the area in the months before the quake that destroyed much of the historic centre.

It took Judge Marco Billi slightly more than four hours to reach the verdict in the trial, which had begun in September 2011.

Lawyers have said that they will appeal against the sentence. As convictions are not definitive until after at least one level of appeal in Italy, it is unlikely any of the defendants will immediately face prison.

‘Alarming’ case

The seven – all members of the National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks – were accused of having provided “inaccurate, incomplete and contradictory” information about the danger of the tremors felt ahead of 6 April 2009 quake, Italian media report.

In addition to their sentences, all have been barred from ever holding public office again, La Repubblica reports.

In the closing statement, the prosecution quoted one of its witnesses, whose father died in the earthquake.

It described how Guido Fioravanti had called his mother at about 11:00 on the night of the earthquake – straight after the first tremor.

“I remember the fear in her voice. On other occasions they would have fled but that night, with my father, they repeated to themselves what the risk commission had said. And they stayed.”

‘Hasty sentence’

The judge also ordered the defendants to pay court costs and damages.

Reacting to the verdict against him, Bernardo De Bernardinis said: “I believe myself to be innocent before God and men.”

“My life from tomorrow will change,” the former vice-president of the Civil Protection Agency’s technical department said, according to La Repubblica.

“But, if I am judged by all stages of the judicial process to be guilty, I will accept my responsibility.”

Another, Enzo Boschi, described himself as “dejected” and “desperate” after the verdict was read.

“I thought I would have been acquitted. I still don’t understand what I was convicted of.”

One of the lawyers for the defence, Marcello Petrelli, described the sentences as “hasty” and “incomprehensible”.

‘Inherently unpredictable’

The case has alarmed many in the scientific community, who feel science itself has been put on trial.

Some scientists have warned that the case might set a damaging precedent, deterring experts from sharing their knowledge with the public for fear of being targeted in lawsuits, the BBC’s Alan Johnston in Rome reports.

Among those convicted were some of Italy’s most prominent and internationally respected seismologists and geological experts.

Earlier, more than 5,000 scientists signed an open letter to Italian President Giorgio Napolitano in support of the group in the dock.

After the verdict was announced, David Rothery, of the UK’s Open University, said earthquakes were “inherently unpredictable”.

“The best estimate at the time was that the low-level seismicity was not likely to herald a bigger quake, but there are no certainties in this game,” he said.

Malcolm Sperrin, director of medical physics at the UK’s Royal Berkshire Hospital said that the sentence was surprising and could set a worrying precedent.

“If the scientific community is to be penalised for making predictions that turn out to be incorrect, or for not accurately predicting an event that subsequently occurs, then scientific endeavour will be restricted to certainties only and the benefits that are associated with findings from medicine to physics will be stalled.”

Analysis

by Jonathan Amos – Science correspondent

The Apennines, the belt of mountains that runs down through the centre of Italy, is riddled with faults, and the “Eagle” city of L’Aquila has been hammered time and time again by earthquakes. Its glorious old buildings have had to be patched up and re-built on numerous occasions.

Sadly, the issue is not “if” but “when” the next tremor will occur in L’Aquila. But it is simply not possible to be precise about the timing of future events. Science does not possess that power. The best it can do is talk in terms of risk and of probabilities, the likelihood that an event of a certain magnitude might occur at some point in the future.

The decision to prosecute some of Italy’s leading geophysicists drew condemnation from around the world. The scholarly bodies said it had been beyond anyone to predict exactly what would happen in L’Aquila on 6 April 2009.

But the authorities who pursued the seven defendants stressed that the case was never about the power of prediction – it was about what was interpreted to be an inadequate characterisation of the risks; of being misleadingly reassuring about the dangers that faced their city.

Nonetheless, the verdicts will come as a shock to all researchers in Italy whose expertise lies in the field of assessing natural hazards. Their pronouncements will be scrutinised as never before, and their fear will be that they too could find themselves embroiled in legal action over statements that are inherently uncertain.

THOSE CONVICTED

Bernardo De Bernardinis, former deputy chief of Italy's civil protection department

Franco Barberi, head of Serious Risks Commission

Enzo Boschi, former president of the National Institute of Geophysics

Giulio Selvaggi, director of National Earthquake Centre

Gian Michele Calvi, director of European Centre for Earthquake Engineering

Claudio Eva, physicist

Mauro Dolce, director of the the Civil Protection Agency’s earthquake risk office

Bernardo De Bernardinis, former vice-president of Civil Protection Agency’s technical department

 

*   *   *

Scientists in the dock over L’Aquila earthquake

By Susan Watts 

BBC Newsnight Science editor

20 September 2011

Next week six scientists and an official go on trial in Italy for manslaughter over the earthquake in L’Aquila that killed 309 people two years ago.

This extraordinary case has attracted international attention because science itself seemed to be on trial, with the seven defendants apparently charged for failing to predict the magnitude 6.3 earthquake that struck on the night of 6 April 2009.

Scientists cannot yet say when an earthquake is going to happen with any precision, even in a seismically active zone. And over 5,000 scientists from around the world have signed a letter supporting those on trial.

Quake damaged buildings in OnnaThe earthquake was felt throughout central Italy

“I’m afraid that like an earthquake, nothing in this case is predictable. Let’s not forget, this trial is happening in L’Aquila, where the entire population has been personally affected, and awaiting a sentence that should not happen, but could happen,” Marcello Milandri said.Yet the lawyer for one of the scientists, in an interview with Newsnight, said it is possible his client will be convicted:

Seismologists can assess only the probability that a quake may happen, and then with a large degree of uncertainty about its properties.

In some circumstances, they may be able to say that the likelihood of an event has gone up, to help authorities prepare for an emergency, perhaps by concentrating on particularly vulnerable buildings or sectors of the population, such as school-children.

Weighing the risks

The signatories to the letter say the authorities should focus on earthquake protection, instead of pursuing scientists in what some feel is a Galileo-style inquisition.

The Commission calmed the local population down following a number of earth tremors. After the quake, we heard people’s accounts and they told us they changed their behaviour following the advice of the commission 

Inspector Lorenzo Cavallo

Newsnight went to L’Aquila to find out why this case has come about.

The prosecution team said they never intended to put science on trial, that they know it is not possible to predict an earthquake.

What they are questioning is whether the six scientists and the official on trial, who together constitute Italy’s Commission of Grand Risks, did their jobs properly.

That is, did they weigh up all the risks, and communicate these clearly to the authorities seeking their advice?

The local investigator, Inspector Lorenzo Cavallo, said: “The Commission calmed the local population down following a number of earth tremors. After the quake, we heard people’s accounts and they told us they changed their behaviour following the advice of the commission.

“It is our duty to investigate what has been said in each case and pass it on to the legal authority.”

Radon gas claims

A local journalist, Giustino Parisse, who lived in Onna, a small hamlet outside L’Aquila at the time, is one of those bringing the case.

In the weeks leading up to the major quake there had been a series of tremors. On the night of 5 April, several large shocks kept his children awake.

They were anxious, but he told them to go back to bed, that there was no need to worry, the scientists had said so.

Rescuers carrying bodyThe quake was the deadliest to hit Italy since 1980

His 16-year-old daughter and 17-year-old son both died in the earthquake that night, along with his father, when the family home collapsed.

He told Newsnight that people had been becoming increasingly anxious, in part because of warnings from a local nuclear scientist, Giampaolo Giuliani, that raised levels of radon gas in the area suggested to him an earthquake might be imminent.

How valuable this is as an indicator is widely disputed, and most experts in this field believe it is unreliable.

At the time the head of Italy’s civil protection agency, Guido Bertolaso,took the unusual step of asking his Commission of Grand Risks to fly to L’Aquila to discuss the situation.

They held a meeting that lasted only an hour or so, then the official now on trial, Bernardo de Bernadinis, who was then deputy director of the civil protection department, held a hurried press briefing, in reassuring tones.

Two of those on trial are linked to Italy’s National institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV).

The institute’s head of public affairs, Pasquale de Santis, told Newsnight that the trial is a distraction, that seismologists have been saying since 1998 that this is a high risk area, and that people should instead be focussing on those who failed properly to enforce building codes in L’Aquila.

Funding needed

We put this to the mayor of L’Aquila, Massimo Cialente. He hopes the trial will prompt a national debate, and make it easier for him to raise the funds and support he needs to protect people against future earthquakes.

He said six days before the major quake he moved local children from a school damaged in an earlier tremor. He said he had no official budget to do that, because prevention is not a national priority.

“We closed the school and we had to transfer 500 pupils. I needed money, but I started the work without the money. If the quake did not happen I would be charged for that.”

Those bringing the case say the people of L’Aquila have a right to know what happened. Many hope the trial will bring some peace of mind.

But some of those who signed the letter of support told Newsnight they fear the case will dissuade scientists from leaving their labs to engage with politicians and the public.

John McCloskey, professor of geophysics at Ulster University, said these scientists have spent their lives producing some of the most sophisticated seismic maps in the world.

He said it is an “outrage” that they are now on trial for manslaughter, adding that he signed the letter because “their peril is our peril”.

*   *   *

Can we predict when and where quakes will strike?

By Leila Battison – Science reporter

20 September 2011

l'Aquila earthquakeSeismologists try to manage the risk of building damage and loss of life

This week, six seismologists go on trial for the manslaughter of 309 people, who died as a result of the 2009 earthquake in l’Aquila, Italy.

The prosecution holds that the scientists should have advised the population of l’Aquila of the impending earthquake risk.

But is it possible to pinpoint the time and location of an earthquake with enough accuracy to guide an effective evacuation?

There are continuing calls for seismologists to predict where and when a large earthquake will occur, to allow complete evacuation of threatened areas.

Predicting an earthquake with this level of precision is extremely difficult, because of the variation in geology and other factors that are unique to each location.

Attempts have been made, however, to look for signals that indicate a large earthquake is about to happen, with variable success.

Historically, animals have been thought to be able to sense impending earthquakes.

Noticeably erratic behaviour of pets, and mass movement of wild animals like rats, snakes and toads have been observed prior to several large earthquakes in the past.

Following the l’Aquila quake, researchers published a study in the Journal of Zoology documenting the unusual movement of toads away from their breeding colony.

But scientists have been unable to use this anecdotal evidence to predict events.

The behaviour of animals is affected by too many factors, including hunger, territory and weather, and so their erratic movements can only be attributed to earthquakes in hindsight.

Precursor events

When a large amount of stress is built up in the Earth’s crust, it will mostly be released in a single large earthquake, but some smaller-scale cracking in the build-up to the break will result in precursor earthquakes.

“There is no scientific basis for making a prediction” – Richard Walker, University of Oxford

These small quakes precede around half of all large earthquakes, and can continue for days to months before the big break.

Some scientists have even gone so far as to try to predict the location of the large earthquake by mapping the small tremors.

The “Mogi Doughnut Hypothesis” suggests that a circular pattern of small precursor quakes will precede a large earthquake emanating from the centre of that circle.

While half of the large earthquakes have precursor tremors, only around 5% of small earthquakes are associated with a large quake.

So even if small tremors are felt, this cannot be a reliable prediction that a large, devastating earthquake will follow.

“There is no scientific basis for making a prediction”, said Dr Richard Walker of the University of Oxford.

In several cases, increased levels of radon gas have been observed in association with rock cracking that causes earthquakes.

Leaning buildingSmall ground movements sometimes precede a large quake

Radon is a natural and relatively harmless gas in the Earth’s crust that is released to dissolve into groundwater when the rock breaks.

Similarly, when rock cracks, it can create new spaces in the crust, into which groundwater can flow.

Measurements of groundwater levels around earthquake-prone areas see sudden changes in the level of the water table as a result of this invisible cracking.

Unfortunately for earthquake prediction, both the radon emissions and water level changes can occur before, during, or after an earthquake, or not at all, depending on the particular stresses a rock is put under.

Advance warning systems

The minute changes in the movement, tilt, and the water, gas and chemical content of the ground associated with earthquake activity can be monitored on a long term scale.

Measuring devices have been integrated into early warning systems that can trigger an alarm when a certain amount of activity is recorded.

Prediction will only become possible with a detailed knowledge of the earthquake process. Even then, it may still be impossible” – Dr Dan Faulkner, University of Liverpool

Such early warning systems have been installed in Japan, Mexico and Taiwan, where the population density and high earthquake risk pose a huge threat to people’s lives.

But because of the nature of all of these precursor reactions, the systems may only be able to provide up to 30 seconds’ advance warning.

“In the history of earthquake study, only one prediction has been successful”, explains Dr Walker.

The magnitude 7.3 earthquake in 1975 in Haicheng, North China was predicted one day before it struck, allowing authorities to order evacuation of the city, saving many lives.

But the pattern of seismic activity that this prediction was based on has not resulted in a large earthquake since, and just a year later in 1976 a completely unanticipated magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck nearby Tangshan causing the death of over a quarter of a million people.

The “prediction” of the Haicheng quake was therefore just a lucky unrepeatable coincidence.

A major problem in the prediction of earthquake events that will require evacuation is the threat of issuing false alarms.

Scientists could warn of a large earthquake every time a potential precursor event is observed, however this would result in huge numbers of false alarms which put a strain on public resources and might ultimately reduce the public’s trust in scientists.

“Earthquakes are complex natural processes with thousands of interacting factors, which makes accurate prediction of them virtually impossible,” said Dr Walker.

Seismologists agree that the best way to limit the damage and loss of life resulting from a large earthquake is to predict and manage the longer-term risks in an earthquake-prone area. These include the likelihood of building collapsing and implementing emergency plans.

“Detailed scientific research has told us that each earthquake displays almost unique characteristics, preceded by foreshocks or small tremors, whereas others occur without warning. There simply are no rules to utilise in order to predict earthquakes,” said Dr Dan Faulkner, senior lecturer in rock mechanics at the University of Liverpool.

“Earthquake prediction will only become possible with a detailed knowledge of the earthquake process. Even then, it may still be impossible.”

What causes an earthquake?

An earthquake is caused when rocks in the Earth’s crust fracture suddenly, releasing energy in the form of shaking and rolling, radiating out from the epicentre.

The rocks are put under stress mostly by friction during the slow, 1-10 cm per year shuffling of tectonic plates.

The release of this friction can happen at any time, either through small frequent fractures, or rarer breaks that release a lot more energy, causing larger earthquakes.

It is these large earthquakes that have devastating consequences when they strike in heavily populated areas.

Attempts to limit the destruction of buildings and the loss of life mostly focus on preventative measures and well-communicated emergency plans.

*   *   *

Long-range earthquake prediction – really?

By Megan Lane – BBC News

11 May 201

Model figures on shaky jigsaw

In Italy, Asia and New Zealand, long-range earthquake predictions from self-taught forecasters have recently had people on edge. But is it possible to pinpoint when a quake will strike?

It’s a quake prediction based on the movements of the moon, the sun and the planets, and made by a self-taught scientist who died in 1979.

But on 11 May 2011, many people planned to stay away from Rome, fearing a quake forecast by the late Raffaele Bendandi – even though his writings contained no geographical location, nor a day or month.

In New Zealand too, the quake predictions of a former magician who specialises in fishing weather forecasts have caused unease.

“The date is not there, nor is the place” – Paola Lagorio, of the foundation that honours Bendandi

After a 6.3 quake scored a direct hit on Christchurch in February, Ken Ring forecast another on 20 March, caused by a “moon-shot straight through the centre of the earth”. Rattled residents fled the city.

Predicting quakes is highly controversial, says Brian Baptie, head of seismology at the British Geological Survey. Many scientists believe it is impossible because of the quasi-random nature of earthquakes.

“Despite huge efforts and great advances in our understanding of earthquakes, there are no good examples of an earthquake being successfully predicted in terms of where, when and how big,” he says.

Many of the methods previously applied to earthquake prediction have been discredited, he says, adding that predictions such as that in Rome “have little basis and merely cause public alarm”.

Woman holding pet cat in a tsunami devastated street in JapanCan animals pick up quake signals?

Seismologists do monitor rock movements around fault lines to gauge where pressure is building up, and this can provide a last-minute warning in the literal sense, says BBC science correspondent Jonathan Amos.

“In Japan and California, there are scientists looking for pre-cursor signals in rocks. It is possible to get a warning up to 30 seconds before an earthquake strikes your location. That’s enough time to get the doors open on a fire station, so the engines can get out as soon as it is over.”

But any longer-range prediction is much harder.

“It’s like pouring sand on to a pile, and trying to predict which grain of sand on which side of the pile will cause it to collapse. It is a classic non-linear system, and people have been trying to model it for centuries,” says Amos.

In Japan, all eyes are on the faults that lace its shaky islands.

On Monday, Trade and Industry Minister Banri Kaieda urged that the Hamaoka nuclear plant near a fault line south-west of Tokyo be shut down, pending the construction of new tsunami defences.

Seismologists have long warned that a major earthquake is overdue in this region.

But overdue earthquakes can be decades, if not centuries, in coming. And this makes it hard to prepare, beyond precautions such as construction standards and urging the populace to lay in emergency supplies that may never be needed.

Later this year, a satellite is due to launch to test the as-yet unproven theory that there is a link between electrical disturbances on the edge of our atmosphere and impending quakes on the ground below.

Toad warning

Then there are the hypotheses that animals may be able to sense impending earthquakes.

Last year, the Journal of Zoology published a study into a population of toads that left their breeding colony three days before a 6.3 quake struck L’Aquila, Italy, in 2009. This was highly unusual behaviour.

But it is hard to objectively and quantifiably study how animals respond to seismic activity, in part because earthquakes are rare and strike without warning.

A man in Christchurch carrying a young girl through stricken streetsCountries in the Pacific’s “Ring of Fire”, like New Zealand, are regularly shaken by quakes

“At the moment, we know the parts of the world where earthquakes happen and how often they happen on average in these areas,” says Dr Baptie.

This allows seismologists to make statistical estimates of probable ground movements that can be use to plan for earthquakes and mitigate their effects. “However, this is still a long way from earthquake prediction,” he says.

And what of the “prophets” who claim to predict these natural disasters?

“Many regions, such as Indonesia and Japan, experience large earthquakes on a regular basis, so vague predictions of earthquakes in these places requires no great skill.”

 

Who was Raffaele Bendandi?

  • Born in 1893 in central Italy
  • In November 1923, he predicted a quake would strike on January 2, 1924
  • Two days after this date, it did, in Italian province of Le Marche
  • Mussolini made him a Knight of the Order of the Crown of Italy
  • But he also banned Bendandi from making public predictions, on pain of exile

The Anthropocene? Planet Earth in the Age of Humans (AAA)

Posted on October 16, 2012 by Joslyn O.

Today’s guest blog post is by AAA member Shirley J Fiske. Fiske is an environmental anthropologist and Research Professor at University of Maryland’s College Park campus.  She is the Chair of the American Anthropological Association ’s task force on Global Climate Change. 

The first in a series of Grand Challenges symposia organized by the Smithsonian for the public (at least the highly educated, concerned public from what I could tell)—a full day with stellar speakers and response panels.  Invigorating discussion and ideas.  Kudos!  Many well-known names Charles Mann (1491, 1493 ), Richard Alley, Andrew Revkin, Senator Tim Wirth and incredibly moving & convincing presentation by photographer Chris Jordan whose images of “the infrastructure of our mass consumption” are familiar to many – as well as his photos of the stomach contents of dead baby Albatrosses on Midway Island, showing them starved with their bellies full of plastic debris.

Environmental humanities were well-represented and exciting, but the social sciences less so – disappointingly, economist Sabine O’Hara did nothing to illuminated the human aspects of the changes in the Anthropocene but chose to talk about “internalizing the economy.”  However, two archaeologists, both at the Smithsonian, did an excellent job as panelists-rapporteurs, ensuring that the audience kept the long dimension of human evolution and development in mind.  Rick Potts, (National Museum of Natural History, Human Origins Program Director), a paleo-anthropologist, offered a tantalizing insight, roughly paraphrased as a lot of change took place during periods of high climate variability (unstable periods)—such as innovations in lithic technology and other things.  He also stated that he’s in the process of getting a long core that will show us 500,000 years of climate change in East Africa during the time period of the development of our species.  Torben C. Rick (NMNH Director of the Program in Human Ecology and Archaeobiology)  focused on the “mid-term time frame”—the last 1,000 years!  and offered that sustainability rests on reconciling the short term developments with long term cycles.  The last 10,000 years has been a series of changes, re-organizations—not collapses.

The symposium was titled as a declarative, but there was a necessary and good discussion about whether naming it the Anthropocene showed abundant human hubris in our assumed agency in changing the world and the course of the earth .  In that vein, some concluded that whatever we do at this point won’t have any effect on the ‘big picture’ of the earth’s 4-billion year existence and that the Anthropocene is wrongly named.  Highlights and some familiar assumptions, brought to the fore, were that nature can no longer be studied in isolation from humans and human systems. (check!), that ‘homogenization’ of the planet started well before the industrial revolution (Mann), that we’re the first species that recognizes who recognizes that we’re having a global impact (compared with, say, cyanobacteria);  and that we need to move away from trying to “manage” the system and focus on monitoring and adapting;  the recognition that science-based decision have inherently imbedded values within them  (Revkin).

Richard Alley has re-focused his energy onto renewables, pointing out that is the direction we need to go, that all the easy oil is gone.  His talk made abundantly clear that the argument that encouraging renewable energy means loss of jobs is a blatant red herring; that the way to start such a massive transformation is to jettison the dirtiest and most dangerous (i.e. the work of coal mining is one of the most dangerous jobs in the US) of fossil fuel resources, coal, and develop the others.  He de-bunked the ‘myth of intermittency’ (my words) with wind and solar energy quite effectively.  One of the panelists aptly said Alley is a “radical center of an environmental view of the world.”  Glad to have him there.

The culture concept was constantly invoked, as it is almost universally these days.  “How do we change culture?”   (away from consumption, from “need,” from capitalism or communism)  The most insightful answers (although not necessarily action-oriented) came from photographer Chris Jordan, who argued that we should do essentially nothing, in the short term;  we should let our human-created disaster settle in and we should grieve.  It is only by grieving fully that we will reconnect with our spiritual side and with love, the fundamental emotion of humans.  The symposium was organized to begin a dialogue around the meaning of the Anthropocene, and it accomplished those goals.  The symposium led me to conclude, similar to one of the speakers (Alley?) who said that the meaning of the Anthropocene is ethical and moral – how do we want the future to look and what can we do with the knowledge we have?

Henry A. Giroux: Why Don’t Americans Care About Democracy at Home? (Truth-out.org)

Tuesday, 02 October 2012 13:47 – By Henry A GirouxTruthout | Op-Ed

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(Photo: Lance Page / Truthout)“It is certain, in any case, that ignorance, allied with power, is the most ferocious enemy justice can have.”  – James Baldwin

Four decades of neoliberal policies have given way to an economic Darwinism that promotes a politics of cruelty. And its much vaunted ideology is taking over the United States.[1] As a theater of cruelty and mode of public pedagogy, economic Darwinism undermines all forms of solidarity capable of challenging market-driven values and social relations. At the same time, economic Darwinism promotes the virtues of an unbridled individualism that is almost pathological in its disdain for community, social responsibility, public values and the public good. As the welfare state is dismantled and spending is cut to the point where government becomes unrecognizable – except to promote policies that benefit the rich, corporations and the defense industry – the already weakened federal and state governments are increasingly replaced by the harsh realities of the punishing state and what João Biehl has called proliferating “zones of social abandonment” and “terminal exclusion.”[2]

To read more articles by Henry Giroux and other authors in the Public Intellectual Project, click here.

One consequence is that social problems are increasingly criminalized, while social protections are either eliminated or fatally weakened. Another result of this crushing form of economic Darwinism is that it thrives on a kind of social amnesia that erases critical thought, historical analyses and any understanding of broader systemic relations. In this instance, it does the opposite of critical memory work by eliminating those public spheres where people learn to translate private troubles into public issues. That is, it breaks “the link between public agendas and private worries, the very hub of the democratic process.”[3] Once set in motion, economic Darwinism unleashes a mode of thinking in which social problems are reduced to individual flaws and political considerations collapse into the injurious and self-indicting discourse of character. As George Lakoff and Glenn Smith argue, the anti-public philosophy of economic Darwinism makes a parody of democracy by defining freedom as “the liberty to seek one’s own interests and well-being, without being responsible for the interests or well-being of anyone else. It’s a morality of personal, but not social, responsibility. The only freedom you should have is what you can provide for yourself, not what the Public provides for you to start out.”[4] Put simply, we alone become responsible for the problems we confront when we can no longer conceive how larger forces control or constrain our choices and the lives we are destined to lead.

Yet, the harsh values and practices of this new social order are visible – in the increasing incarceration of young people, the modeling of public schools after prisons, state violence waged against peaceful student protesters and state policies that bail out investment bankers but leave the middle and working classes in a state of poverty, despair and insecurity. Such values are also evident in the GOP Social-Darwinist budget plan that rewards the rich and cuts aid for those who need it the most. For instance, the Romney/Ryan budget plan “proposes to cut the taxes of households earning over $1 million by an average of $295,874 a year,”[5] but at a cruel cost to those most disadvantaged populations who rely on social programs. In order to pay for tax reductions that benefit the rich, the Romney/Ryan budget would cut funds for food stamps, Pell grants, health care benefits, unemployment insurance, veterans’ benefits and other crucial social programs.[6] As Paul Krugman has argued, the Ryan budget “isn’t just looking for ways to save money [it’s] also trying to make life harder for the poor – for their own good. In March, explaining his cuts in aid for the unfortunate, [Ryan] declared, ‘We don’t want to turn the safety net into a hammock that lulls able-bodied people into lives of dependency and complacency, that drains them of their will and their incentive to make the most of their lives.'”[7] Krugman rightly replies, “I doubt that Americans forced to rely on unemployment benefits and food stamps in a depressed economy feel that they’re living in a comfortable hammock.”[8] As an extremist version of neoliberalism, Ryanomics is especially vicious towards American children, 16.1 million of whom currently live in poverty. Marian Wright Edelman captures the harshness and savagery of the Ryan budget passed in the House of Representatives. She writes:

Ryanomics is an all out assault on our poorest children while asking not a dime of sacrifice from the richest 2 percent of Americans or from wealthy corporations. Ryanomics slashes hundreds of billions of dollars from child and family nutrition, health, child care, education and child protection services, in order to extend and add to the massive Bush tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires at a taxpayer cost of $5 trillion over 10 years. On top of making the Bush tax cuts permanent, the top income bracket would get an additional 10 percent tax cut. Millionaires and billionaires would on average keep at least an additional quarter of a million dollars each year and possibly as much as $400,000 a year according to the Citizens for Tax Justice.[9]

Under the euphemism of a politics of austerity, we are witnessing not only widespread cuts in vital infrastructures, education and social protections, but also the emergence of policies produced in the spirit of revenge aimed at the poor, the elderly and others marginalized by race and class. As Robert Reich, Charles Ferguson, and a host of recent commentators have pointed out, this extreme concentration of power in every commanding institution of society promotes predatory practices and rewards sociopathic behavior. Such a system creates an authoritarian class of corporate and hedge-fund swindlers that reaps its own profits by

placing big bets with other people’s money. The winners in this system are top Wall Street executives and traders, private-equity managers and hedge-fund moguls, and the losers are most of the rest of us. The system is largely responsible for the greatest concentration of the nation’s income and wealth at the very top since the Gilded Age of the 19th century, with the richest 400 Americans owning as much as the bottom 150 million put together. And these multimillionaires and billionaires are now actively buying the 2012 election – and with it, American democracy.[10]

Unfortunately, the American public has remained largely silent, if not also complicitous with the rise of a neoliberal version of authoritarianism. While young people have started to challenge this politics and machinery of corruption, war, violence and death, they represent a small and marginalized part of the movement that will be necessary to initiate massive collective resistance to the aggressive violence being waged against all those public spheres that further the promise of democracy in the United States. The actions of student protesters and others have been crucial in drawing public attention to the constellation of forces that are pushing the United States into what Hannah Arendt called “dark times.” The questions now being asked must be seen as the first step toward exposing dire social and political costs of concentrating wealth, income and power into the hands of the upper one percent.

Neoliberal Ideology and the Rhetoric of Freedom

In addition to amassing ever expanding amounts of material wealth, the rich now control the means of schooling and education in the United States. They have disinvested in critical education, while reproducing notions of common sense that incessantly replicate the basic values, ideas and relations necessary to sustain the institutions of economic Darwinism. Both parties support educational reforms that increase conceptual illiteracy. Critical learning is now reduced to mastering test-taking, memorizing facts, and learning how not to question knowledge and authority. This type of rote pedagogy, as Zygmunt Bauman points out, is “the most effective prescription for grinding communication to a halt and for [robbing] it of the presumption and expectation of meaningfulness and sense.”[11]

This type of market-driven illiteracy has eviscerated the notion of freedom, turning it largely into the desire to consume and invest exclusively in relationships that serve only one’s individual interests. Citizens are treated by the political and economic elite as restless children and are “invited daily to convert the practice of citizenship into the art of shopping.”[12] Shallow consumerism coupled with an indifference to the needs and suffering of others has produced a politics of disengagement and a culture of moral irresponsibility. Language has been stripped of the terms, phrases and ideas that embrace a concern for the other. With meaning utterly privatized, words are reduced to signifiers that mimic spectacles of violence, designed to provide entertainment rather than thoughtful analysis. Sentiments circulating in the dominant culture parade either idiocy or a survival-of-the-fittest ethic, while anti-public rhetoric strips society of the knowledge and values necessary for the development of a democratically engaged and socially responsible public.

In such circumstances, freedom has truly morphed into its opposite. Neoliberal ideology has construed as pathological any notion that in a healthy society people depend on each other in multiple, complex, direct and indirect ways. As Lewis Lapham points out, “Citizens are no longer held in thoughtful regard … just as thinking and acting are removed from acts of public conscience.”[13] Economic Darwinism has produced a legitimating ideology in which the conditions for critical inquiry, moral responsibility and social and economic justice disappear. The result is that neoliberal ideology increasingly resembles a call to war that turns the principles of democracy against democracy itself. Americans now live in an atomized and pulverized society, “spattered with the debris of broken interhuman bonds”[14] in which “democracy becomes a perishable commodity”[15] and all things public are viewed with disdain. Increasingly, it appears the only bond holding American society together is a perverse collective death-drive.

Neoliberal Governance

At the level of governance, neoliberalism has turned politics into a tawdry form of money laundering in which the spaces and registers that circulate power are controlled by those who have amassed large amounts of capital. Elections, like mainstream politicians, are now bought and sold to the highest bidder. In the Senate and House of Representatives, 47 percent are millionaires and the “estimated median net worth of a current U.S. senator stood at an average of $2.56 million while the median net worth of members of Congress is $913,000.”[16] Elected representatives no longer do the bidding of the people who elect them. Rather, they are now largely influenced by the demands of lobbyists who have enormous clout in promoting the interests of the elite, financial services and mega corporations. Currently, there are just over 14,000 registered lobbyists in Washington, DC, which amounts to approximately 23 lobbyists for every member of Congress. Although the number of lobbyists has steadily increased by about 20 percent since 1998, the Center for Responsive Politics found that “total spending on lobbying the federal government has almost tripled since 1998, to $3.3 billion.”[17] As Bill Moyers and Bernard Weisberger succinctly put it, “A radical minority of the superrich has gained ascendency over politics, buying the policies, laws, tax breaks, subsidies and rules that consolidate a permanent state of vast inequality by which they can further help themselves to America’s wealth and resources.”[18] Democratic governance has been replaced by the sovereignty of the market, paving the way for modes of governance intent on transforming democratic citizens into entrepreneurial agents. The language of the market and business culture have now almost entirely supplanted any celebration of the public good or the calls to enhance civil society characteristic of past generations.

Neoliberal governance has produced an economy and a political system almost entirely controlled by the rich and powerful – what a Citigroup report called a “Plutonomy,” an economy powered by the wealthy.[19] These plutocrats are what I have called the new zombies sucking the resources out of the planet and the rest of us in order to strengthen their grasp on political and economic power and fuel their exorbitant lifestyles. Policies are now enacted that provide massive tax cuts to the rich and generous subsidies to banks and corporations – alongside massive disinvestments in job creation programs, the building of critical infrastructures and the development of crucial social programs, which range from health care to school meal programs for disadvantaged children. In reality, the massive disinvestment in schools, social programs and an aging infrastructure is not about a lack of money. The real problem stems from government priorities that inform both how the money is collected and how it is spent.[20] Over 60 percent of the federal budget goes to military spending, while only 6 percent is allocated toward education. The US spends more than $92 billion on corporate subsidies and only $59 billion on social welfare programs.[21] John Cavanagh has estimated that if there were a tiny tax imposed on Wall Street “stock and derivatives transactions,” the government could raise $150 billion annually.[22] In addition, if the tax code were adjusted in a fair manner to tax the wealthy, another $79 billion could be raised. Finally, Cavanagh points out that $100 billion in tax income is lost annually through tax haven abuse; proper regulation would make it costly for corporations to declare “their profits in overseas tax havens like the Cayman Islands.”[23]

At the same time, the financialization of the economy and culture has resulted in the poisonous growth of monopoly power, predatory lending, abusive credit card practices and misuses of CEO pay. The false but central neoliberal tenet that markets can solve all of society’s problems has no way of limiting the power of money and has given rise to “a politics in which policies that favor the rich … have allowed the financial sector to amass vast economic and political power.”[24] As Joseph Stiglitz points out, there is more at work in this form of governance than a pandering to the wealthy and powerful: There is also the specter of an authoritarian society “where people live in gated communities,” large segments of the population are impoverished or locked up in prison and Americans live in a state of constant fear as they face growing “economic insecurity, health care insecurity [and] a sense of physical insecurity.”[25] In other words, the authoritarian nature of neoliberal political governance and economic power is also visible in the rise of a national security state in which civil liberties are being drastically abridged and violated.

As the war on terror becomes a normalized state of existence, the most basic rights available to American citizens are being shredded. The spirit of revenge, militarization and fear now permeates the discourse of national security. For instance, under Presidents Bush and Obama, the idea of habeas corpus with its guarantee that prisoners have minimal rights has given way to policies of indefinite detention, abductions, targeted assassinations, drone killings and an expanding state surveillance apparatus. The Obama administration has designated 46 inmates for indefinite detention at Guantanamo because, according to the government, they can be neither tried nor safely released. Moreover, another “167 men now confined at Guantanamo … have been cleared for release yet remain at the facility.”[26]

With the passing of the National Defense Authorization Act in 2012, the rule of legal illegalities has been extended to threaten the lives and rights of US citizens. The law authorizes military detention of individuals who are suspected of belonging not only to terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda but to “associated forces.” As Glenn Greenwald points out, this “grants the president the power to indefinitely detain in military custody not only accused terrorists, but also their supporters, all without charges or trial.”[27] The vagueness of the law allows the possibility of subjecting US citizens who are considered in violation of the law to indefinite detention. Of course, that might include journalists, writers, intellectuals and anyone else who might be accused because of their dealings with alleged terrorists. Fortunately, US District Judge Katherine Forrest of New York agreed with Chris Hedges, Noam Chomsky and other writers who have challenged the legality of the law. Judge Forrest recently acknowledged the unconstitutionality of the law and ruled in favor of a preliminary barring of the enforcement of the National Defense Authorization Act.[28]

The anti-democratic practices at work in the Obama administration also include the US government’s use of state secrecy to provide a cover or prevent being embarrassed by practices that range from the illegal use of torture to the abduction of innocent foreign nationals. Under the rubric of national security, a shadow state has emerged that eschews transparency and commits unlawful acts. Given the power of the government to engage in a range of illegalities and to make them disappear through an appeal to state secrecy, it should come as no surprise that warrantless wiretapping, justified in the name of national security, is on the rise at both the federal and state levels. For instance, the New York City Police Department “implemented surveillance programs that violate the civil liberties of that city’s Muslim-American citizens [by infiltrating] mosques and universities [and] collecting information on individuals suspected of no crimes.”[29] And the American public barely acknowledged this shocking abuse of power. Such anti-democratic policies and practices have become the new norm in American society and reveal a frightening and dangerous move toward a 21st century version of authoritarianism.

Neoliberalism as the New Lingua Franca of Cruelty

The harsh realities of a society defined by the imperatives of punishment, cruelty, militarism, secrecy and exclusion can also be seen in the emergence of a growing rhetoric of insult, humiliation and slander. Teachers are referred to as welfare queens by right-wing pundits; conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh claimed that Michael J. Fox was “faking” the symptoms of Parkinson’s disease when he appeared in a political ad for Democrat Claire McCaskill; and the public is routinely treated to racist comments, slurs and insults about Barack Obama by a host of shock jocks, politicians and even one federal judge.[30] Poverty is not only seen as a personal failing, it has become the object of abuse, fear and loathing. Poor people, rather than poverty, are now the problem, because the poor, as right-wing ideologues never fail to remind us, are lazy (and after all how could they be poor since they own TVs and cell phones). Racism, cruelty, insults and the discourse of humiliation are now packaged in a mindless rhetoric that is as unapologetic as it is ruthless – and has become the new lingua franca of public exchange.

Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney echoed the harshness of the new lingua franca of cruelty when asked recently about the government’s responsibility to 50 million Americans who don’t have health insurance. Incredibly, Romney said they already have access to health care because they can go to hospital emergency rooms. In response, a New York Times editorial pointed out that emergency room care “is the most expensive and least effective way of providing care” and such a remark “reeks of contempt for those left behind by the current insurance system, suggesting that they must suffer with illness until the point where they need an ambulance.”[31] Indifferent to the health care needs of the poor and middle class, Romney also conveniently forgets that, as indicated in a Harvard University study, “more than 62 percent of all personal bankruptcies are caused by the cost of overwhelming medical expenses.”[32] The new lingua franca of cruelty and its politics of disposability are on full display here. To paraphrase Hannah Arendt, we live in a time when revenge has become the cure-all for most of our social and economic ills.

Neoliberalism and the Retreat from Ethical Considerations

Not only does neoliberal rationality believe in the ability of markets to solve all problems, it also removes economics and markets from ethical considerations. Economic growth, rather than social needs, drives politics. Long-term investments are replaced by short-term gains and profits, while compassion is viewed as a weakness and democratic public values are scorned because they subordinate market considerations to the common good. As the language of privatization, deregulation and commodification replaces the discourse of social responsibility, all things public – including public schools, libraries, transportation systems, crucial infrastructures and public services – are viewed either as a drain on the market or as a pathology.[33] Greed is now championed because it allegedly drives innovation and creates jobs. Massive disparities in income and wealth are celebrated as a justification for embracing a survival-of-the-fittest ethic and paying homage to a ruthless mode of unbridled individualism.

Morality in this instance becomes empty, stripped of any obligations to the other. How else to explain Mitt Romney’s gaffe caught on video in which he derided “47 percent of the people [who] will vote for the president no matter what?”[34] There was more at work here than what some have called “the killing of the American dream” or simply a cynical political admission by Romney that some voting blocs do not matter. [35]Romney’s comments about those 47 percent of adult Americans who don’t pay income taxes for one reason or another, whom he described as “people who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it,”[36] makes clear that a politics of disposability is central to the extreme right-wing philosophy of those who control the Congress and are vying for the presidency. Paul Krugman is on target in arguing that in spite of massive suffering caused by the economic recession – a recession that produced “once-unthinkable levels of economic distress” – there is “growing evidence that our governing elite just doesn’t care.”[37] Of course, Krugman is not suggesting that if the corporate and financial elite cared the predatory nature of capitalism would be transformed. Rather, he is suggesting that economic Darwinism leaves no room for compassion or ethical considerations, which makes it use of power much worse than more liberal models of a market-based society.

Politics of Disposability and the Breakdown of American Democracy

The not-so-hidden order of politics underlying the second Gilded Age and its heartless version of economic Darwinism is that some populations, primarily the elderly, young people, the unemployed, immigrants and poor whites and minorities of color, now constitute a form of human waste or excess. The politics of disposability delineates these populations as unworthy of investment or of sharing in the rights, benefits and protections of a substantive democracy.[38] What is particularly disturbing is how little opposition among there is among the American public to this view of particular social groups as disposable – this, perhaps more than anything else, signals the presence of a rising authoritarianism in the United States. Left unchecked, economic Darwinism will not only destroy the social fabric and undermine democracy; it will also ensure the marginalization and eventual elimination of those intellectuals willing to fight for public values, rights, spaces and institutions not wedded to the logic of privatization, commodification, deregulation, militarization, hyper-masculinity and a ruthless “competitive struggle in which only the fittest could survive.”[39] Clearly, this new politics of disposability and culture of cruelty will wreak destruction in ways not yet imaginable, despite the horrific outcomes of the economic and financial crisis brought on by economic Darwinism. All evidence suggests a new reality is unfolding, one that is characterized by a deeply rooted crisis of education, agency and social responsibility.

Under such circumstances, to paraphrase C. Wright Mills, we are seeing the breakdown of democracy, the disappearance of critical intellectuals, and “the collapse of those public spheres which offer a sense of critical agency and social imagination.”[40] Since the 1970s, we have witnessed the forces of market fundamentalism attempt to strip education of its public values, critical content and civic responsibilities as part of a broader goal to create new subjects wedded to the logic of privatization, efficiency, flexibility, consumerism and the destruction of the social state. Today, neoliberalism’s ascendency has made the educational force of culture toxic, while educational institutions – whether in public or higher education – have all but transformed from promoting the public good to affirming private interests.

Encountering an onslaught of neoliberal ideology from all sides, it becomes increasingly difficult for the larger public to hold on to ideas that affirm social justice, community and those public values central to the cultural and political life of an aspiring democracy. Within both formal education and the educational force of the broader cultural apparatus – with its networks of knowledge production in the old and new media – we are witnessing the emergence and dominance of a powerful and ruthless market-driven notion of politics, governance, teaching, learning, freedom, agency and responsibility. Such modes of education do not foster a sense of organized responsibility central to a healthy democracy. Instead, they foster what I have referred to in the past as a sense of organized irresponsibility – a practice that underlies the economic Darwinism, public pedagogy and corruption at the heart of both the current recession and American politics.

Beyond Neoliberal Mis-Education

The anti-democratic practices that drive free-market fundamentalism are increasingly evident in the neoliberal framing of public and higher education as a corporate-based sector that embraces commodifying the curriculum, supporting top-down management, implementing more courses that promote business values and reducing all spheres of education to job training sites. As universities turn toward corporate management models, they increasingly use and exploit cheap faculty labor. In fact, many colleges and universities are drawing more and more upon adjunct and non-tenured faculty, many of whom occupy the status of indentured servants who are overworked, lack benefits, receive little or no support and are paid salaries that qualify them for food stamps.[41] Students are buried under huge debts that are celebrated by the debt collection industry that is cashing in on their misfortune. Jerry Aston, one member of the industry, wrote in a column after witnessing a protest rally by students criticizing their mounting debt that “I couldn’t believe the accumulated wealth they represent – for our industry.”[42]

There is more at work here than infusing market values into every aspect of higher education. There is also a full-fledged assault on the very notion of public goods, democratic public spheres and the role of education in creating an informed citizenry. When Rick Santorum argued that intellectuals were not wanted in the Republican Party, he was mimicking what has become common sense in a society wedded to narrow instrumental values and various modes of fundamentalism. Critical thinking and a literate public have become dangerous to those who want to celebrate orthodoxy over dialogue, emotion over reason and ideological certainty over thoughtfulness. Hannah Arendt’s warning that “it was not stupidity but a curious, quite authentic inability to think”[43] at the heart of authoritarian regimes is now embraced as a fundamental tenet of Republican Party politics.

In the United States, many of the problems in higher education can be linked to low funding, the domination of universities by market mechanisms, the rise of for-profit colleges, the intrusion of the national security state and the lack of faculty self-governance, all of which not only contradicts the culture and democratic value of higher education, but also makes a mockery of the very meaning and mission of the university. Decreased financial support for higher education stands in sharp contrast to increased support for tax benefits for the rich, financial industries and corporations. Rather than strengthen civic imagination among students, public universities are wedded more and more to the logic of profitability, to producing students as useful machines and to a form of education that promotes a “technically trained docility.”[44]

Universities and colleges have been largely abandoned as democratic public spheres dedicated to providing a public service, expanding upon humankind’s great intellectual and cultural achievements and educating future generations to be able to confront the challenges of a global democracy. As a core political and civic institution, higher education rarely appears any longer to be committed to addressing important social problems. Instead, many universities and colleges have become unapologetic accomplices to corporate values and power, and in doing so increasingly make social problems either irrelevant or invisible. Just as democracy appears to be fading in the United States, so is the legacy of higher education’s faith in and commitment to democracy.

Unfortunately, one measure of this disinvestment in higher education as a public good can be seen in the fact that many states such as California are spending more on prisons than on higher education.[45] Educating low income and poor minorities to be engaged citizens has been undermined by an unholy alliance of law-and-order conservatives, private prison corporations and prison guard unions along with the rise of the punishing state, all of whom have more of a vested interest in locking people up than educating them. It is no coincidence that as the US disinvests in the institutions fundamental to a democracy, it has invested heavily in those apparatuses that propel the rise of the prison-industrial complex and the punishing-surveillance state. The social costs of prioritizing punishing over education is clear in one shocking statistic provided by a recent study that stated “by age 23, almost a third of Americans or 30.2 percent have been arrested for a crime…. Researchers say [this] is a measure of growing exposure to the criminal justice system in everyday life.”[46]

The assault on the university is symptomatic of the deep educational and political crisis facing the United States. It is but one lens through which to recognize that the future of democracy depends on achieving the educational and ethical standards of the society we inhabit.[47] Political, moral, and social indifference is the result, in part, of a public that is increasingly constituted within an educational landscape that reduces thinking to a burden and celebrates civic illiteracy as foundational for negotiating a society in which moral disengagement and political corruption go hand in hand.[48]

This collapse on the part of the American public into a political and moral coma is induced, in part, by an ever expanding mass mediated celebrity culture that trades in hype and sensation. It is also accentuated by a governmental apparatus that sanctions modes of training that undermine any viable notion of critical schooling and public pedagogy. While there is much being written about how unfair the left is to the Obama administration, what is often forgotten by these liberal critics is that Obama has virtually aligned himself with educational practices and policies that are as instrumentalist and anti-intellectual as they are politically reactionary and therein lies one viable reason for not supporting his candidacy.[49]What liberals refuse to entertain is that the left is correct in attacking Obama for his cowardly retreat from a number of progressive issues and his dastardly undermining of civil liberties. In fact, they do not go far enough in their criticisms. Often even progressives miss that Obama’s views on what type of formative educational culture is necessary to create critically engaged and socially responsible citizens is utterly reactionary and provides no space for the nurturance of a radically democratic imagination. Hence, while liberals point to some of Obama’s progressive policies – often in a new age discourse that betrays their own supine moralism – in making a case for his re-election, they fail to acknowledge that Obama’s educational policies do nothing to contest, and are aligned with, his weak-willed compromises and authoritarian policies. In other words, Obama’s educational commitments undermine the creation of a formative culture capable of questioning authoritarian ideas, modes of governance and reactionary policies. The question is not whether he is slightly less repugnant than Romney. On the contrary, it is about how the left should engage politics in a more robust and democratic way by imagining what it would mean to work collectively and with “slow impatience” for a new political order outside of the current moderate and extreme right-wing politics and the debased, uncritical educational apparatus that supports it.

The Role of Critical Education

One way of challenging the new authoritarianism is to reclaim the relationship between critical education and social change. Education both in and out of schools is the bedrock for the formative culture necessary to create not only a literate public but also a public willing to fight for its capacity to hold power accountable and to participate in the decisions and institutions that shape its everyday existence. The question of what kind of subjects and modes of individual and social agency are necessary for a democracy to survive appears more crucial now than ever before, and this is a question that places matters of education, pedagogy and culture at the center of any understanding of politics. We live at a time when the American people appear to have no interest in democracy – beyond the four-year ritual performance of voting, and even this act fails to attract a robust majority of citizens. The term has been emptied of any viable meaning, hijacked by political scoundrels, corporate elites and the advertising industry. The passion that democracy exhibits as an ongoing struggle for rights, justice and a future of hope has been transmuted into a misplaced desire to shop, fulfill the pleasure quotient in spectacles of violence and misappropriate the language of democracy to deploy it as a rationale for racist actions against immigrants, Muslims and poor minorities of color and class.

Clearly, as the Occupy Movement and other youth movements around the world have demonstrated, the time has come not only to redefine the promise of democracy but also to challenge those who have poisoned its meaning. We have already witnessed such a challenge by protest movements both at home and abroad in which the struggle over education has become one of the most powerful fulcrums for addressing the detrimental effects of neoliberalism. What these struggles, particularly by young people, have in common is the attempt to merge the powers of persuasion and critical, civic literacy with the power of social movements to activate and mobilize real change. They are recovering a notion of the social and reclaiming a kind of humanity that should inspire and inform our collective willingness to imagine what a real democracy might look like. The political philosopher, Cornelius Castoriadis, rightly argues that “people need to be educated for democracy by not only expanding the capacities that enable them to assume public responsibility but also through active participation in the very process of governing.”[50] The current attack on democracy is directly linked to a systemic destruction of all those public spheres that expand the power of the imagination, critical inquiry, thoughtful exchange and the formative culture that makes critical education and an engaged citizenry dangerous to fundamentalists of all ideological stripes.

As the crucial lens through which to create the formative culture in which politics and power can be made visible and held accountable, pedagogy plays a central role. But as Archon Fung points out, criticism is not the only public responsibility of intellectuals, artists, journalists, educators and others who engage in critical pedagogical practices. “Intellectuals can also join citizens – and sometimes governments – to construct a world that is more just and democratic. One such constructive role is aiding popular movements and organizations in their efforts to advance justice and democracy.”[51] In this instance, understanding must be linked to the practice of social responsibility and the willingness to fashion a politics that addresses real problems and enacts concrete solutions. As Heather Gautney points out:

We need to start thinking seriously about what kind of political system we really want. And we need to start pressing for things that our politicians did not discuss at the conventions. Real solutions – like universal education, debt forgiveness, wealth redistribution and participatory political structures – that would empower us to decide together what’s best. Not who’s best.[52]

Critical thinking divorced from action is often as sterile as action divorced from critical theory. Given the urgency of the historical moment, we need a politics and a public pedagogy which make knowledge meaningful in order to make it critical and transformative. Or as Stuart Hall argues, we need to produce modes of analyses and knowledge in which “people can invest something of themselves … something that they recognize is of them or speaks to their condition.”[53]

I want to conclude by quoting from James Baldwin, a courageous writer who refused to let the hope of democracy die in his lifetime and who offered that mix of politics, passion and courage that deserves not just admiration but emulation. His sense of rage was grounded in a working-class sensibility, eloquence and passion that illuminates a higher standard for what it means to be a public intellectual and an engaged intellectual. His words capture something that is missing from the American cultural and political landscape, something affirmative that needs to be seized upon, rethought, and occupied – as part of both the fight against the new authoritarianism and its cynical, dangerous and cruel practices, and the struggle to reclaim a notion of justice and mutuality that seems to be dying in all of us. In “The Fire Next Time,” Baldwin writes:

One must say Yes to life, and embrace it wherever it is found – and it is found in terrible places…. For nothing is fixed, forever and forever, it is not fixed; the earth is always shifting, the light is always changing, the sea does not cease to grind down rock. Generations do not cease to be born, and we are responsible to them because we are the only witnesses they have. The sea rises, the light fails, lovers cling to each other and children cling to us. The moment we cease to hold each other, the moment we break faith with one another, the sea engulfs us and the light goes out.

 

1.
Manfred B. Steger and Ravi K. Roy, [i]Neoliberalism: A Very Short Introduction,[/i] (Oxford University Press, 2010). Juliet B. Schor,[i] Plenitude: The New Economics of True Wealth[/i](New York: Penguin Press, 2010); Henry A. Giroux, [i]Against the Terror of Neoliberalism[/i] (Boulder: Paradigm, 2008); David Harvey,[i] A Brief History of Neoliberalism[/i] (New York: Oxford Press, 2005); John and Jean Comaroff, eds. [i]Millennial Capitalism and the Culture of Neoliberalism[/i]  (Durham: Duke University Press, 2001). On the moral limits and failings of neoliberalism, see Michael J. Sandel, [i] What Money Can’t Buy[/i] (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2012) and for positing a case for neoliberalism as a criminal enterprise, see Jeff Madrick,[i] Age of Greed: The Triumph of Finance and the Decline of America, 1970 to the Present [/i](New York: Vintage, 2011); Charles Ferguson, [i]Predator Nation [/i](New York: Crown Business, 2012); Henry A. Giroux, [i]Zombie Politics in the Age of Casino Capitalism[/i] (New York: Peter Lang, 2010).

2.
João Biehl, [i]Vita: Life in a Zone of Social Abandonment [/i](Los Angeles: University of California Press, 2005). These zones are also brilliantly analyzed in Chris Hedges and Joe Sacco, [i]Days of Destruction, Days of Revolt [/i](New York: Knopf, 2012).

3.
Zygmunt Bauman,”Does ‘Democracy’ Still Mean Anything? (And in Case It Does, What Is It?)” [i]Truthout [/i](January 21, 2011). Online: http://truth-out.org/index.php?option=com_k2&;view=item&id=73:does-democracy-still-mean-anything-and-in-case-it-does-what-is-it

4.
George Lakoff and Glenn W. G Smith, “Romney, Ryan and the Devil’s Budget,” The Berkeley Blog (August 23, 2012). Online: http://blogs.berkeley.edu/2012/08/23/romney-ryan-and-the-devils-budget-will-america-keep-its-soul/

 

5.
Robert Reich,”Mitt Romney and the New Gilded Age” [i]Truthout [/i](July 2, 2012). Online: http://truth-out.org/news/item/10109-mitt-romney-and-the-new-gilded-age

6.
David Theo Goldberg, “The Taxing Terms of the GOP Plan Invite Class Carnage,” (September 20, 2012). Online: http://truth-out.org/news/item/11630-the-taxing-terms-of-the-gop-plan-invite-class-carnage

7.
Paul Krugman,”Galt, gold and God,” [i]The New York Times, [/i](August 23, 2012), p. A25.

8. Ibid.

9.
 Marian Wright Edelman,”Ryanomics Assault on Poor and Hungry Children,” [i]Huffington Post [/i](September 14, 2012). Online: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/marian-wright-edelman/ryanomics-assault-on-poor_b_1885851.html

10. Reich,”Mitt Romney and the New Gilded Age,”http://robertreich.org/post/26229451132; Charles Ferguson, [i]Predatory Nation: Corporate Criminals, Political Corruption, and the Hijacking of America [/i](New York: Crown Business, 2012); Daisy Grewal,”How Wealth Reduces Compassion: As Riches Grow, Empathy for Others Seems to Decline,”[i] Scientific American[/i](April 10, 2012). Online: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=how-wealth-reduces-compassion

11.
Bauman,”Does ‘Democracy’ Still Mean Anything?”

12.
Lewis H. Lapham,”Feast of Fools: How American Democracy Became the Property of a Commercial Oligarchy,” [i]Truthout[/i] (September 20, 2012). Online: http://truth-out.org/opinion/item/11656-feast-of-fools-how-american-democracy-became-the-property-of-a-commercial-oligarchy

13.
Ibid.

14.
Zygmunt Bauman, [i]This is Not a Diary[/i] (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2012), p. 102.

15. Lapham,”Feast of Fools,” http://truth-out.org/opinion/item/11656-feast-of-fools-how-american-democracy-became-the-property-of-a-commercial-oligarchy

16. Eric Lichtblau,”Economic Downturn Took a Detour at Capitol Hill,” [i]The New York Times[/i] (December 26, 2011). Online:http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/27/us/politics/economic-slide-took-a-detour-at-capitol-hill.html?pagewanted=all

17. Peter Grier,”So Much Money, So Few Lobbyists in D.C.: How Does the Math Work?” [i]DC Decoder[/i] (February 24, 2012). Online:http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2012/0224/So-much-money-so-few-lobbyists-in-D.C.-How-does-that-math-work

18.
Bill Moyers and Bernard Weisberger,”Money in Politics: Where is the Outrage?” [i]Huffington Post [/i](August 30, 2012). Online:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bill-moyers/money-in-politics_b_1840173.html

19.
It is difficult to access this study because Citigroup does its best to make it disappear from the Internet. See the discussion of it by Noam Chomsky in”Plutonomy and the Precariat: On the History of the U.S. Economy in Decline,”[i] Truthdig [/i](May 8, 2012). Online:http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/plutonomy_and_the_precariat_the_history_of_the_us_economy_in_decline_201205/

20.
Salvatore Babones,”To End the Jobs Recession, Invest an Extra $20 Billion in Public Education,” [i]Truthout [/i](August 21, 2012). Online: http://truth-out.org/opinion/item/11031-to-end-the-jobs-recession-invest-an-extra-$20-billion-in-public-education

21.
John Atcheson,”The Real Welfare Problem: Government Giveaways to the Corporate 1%,” [i]Common  Dreams [/i](September 3, 2012). Online:http://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/09/03-7

22.
John Cavanagh,”Seven Ways to End the Deficit (Without Throwing Grandma Under the Bus),” [i]Yes! Magazine [/i](September 7, 2012). Online: http://www.yesmagazine.org/new-economy/seven-ways-to-end-the-deficit-without-throwing-grandma-under-the-bus

23.
Ibid.

24.
Joseph Stiglitz,”Politics Is at the Root of the Problem,” [i]European Magazine[/i](April 23, 2012). Online:

http://theeuropean-magazine.com/633-stiglitz-joseph/634-austerity-and-a-new-recession

25.
Lynn Parramore,”Exclusive Interview: Joseph Stiglitz Sees Terrifying Future for America If We Don’t Reverse Inequality,” [i]AlterNet [/i](June 24, 2012). Online:

http://www.alternet.org/economy/155918/exclusive_interview%3A_joseph_stiglitz_sees_terrifying_future_for_america_if_we_don%27t_reverse_inequality

26.
Editorial,”America’s Detainee Problem,” [i]Los Angeles Times [/i](September 23, 2012). Online: http://articles.latimes.com/2012/sep/23/opinion/la-ed-detention-20120923

27.
Glenn Greenwald,”Unlike Afghan Leaders, Obama Fights for Power of Indefinite Military Detention,” [i]The Guardian[/i] (September 18, 2012). Online:http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/sep/18/obama-appeals-ndaa-detention-law. See also, Glenn Greenwald,”Federal Court Enjoins NDAA,” [i]Salon[/i] (May 16, 2012). Online:http://www.salon.com/2012/05/16/federal_court_enjoins_ndaa/ . See also, Henry A. Giroux, [i]Hearts of Darkness: Torturing Children in the War on Terror[/i](BoulderParadigm 2010).

28.
Charlie Savage,”Judge Rules against Law on Indefinite Detention,” [i]New York Times [/i](September 12, 2012). Online:http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/13/us/judge-blocks-controversial-indefinite-detention-law.html?_r=0

29.
Karen J. Greenberg,”Ever More and Ever Less,” [i]TomDispatch[/i] (March 18, 2012). Online:

http://www.tomdispatch.com/archive/175517/

30.
Catherine Poe,”Federal Judge Emails Racist Joke about President Obama,” [i]Washington Times [/i](March 1, 2012). Online:http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/ad-lib/2012/mar/1/federal-judge-emails-racist-joke-about-president-o/

31.
Editorial,”Why Romney Is Slipping,” [i]New York Times[/i] (September 25, 2012), p. A20.

32.
Brennan Keller,”Medical Expenses: Top Cause of Bankruptcy in the United States,” [i]Give Forward[/i] (October 13, 2011). Online:http://www.giveforward.com/blog/medical-expenses-top-cause-of-bankruptcy-in-the-united-states

33.
George Lakoff and Glenn W. G Smith,”Romney, Ryan and the Devil’s Budget,” [i]Berkeley Blog [/i](August 23, 2012). Online: http://blogs.berkeley.edu/2012/08/23/romney-ryan-and-the-devils-budget-will-america-keep-its-soul/

34.
David Corn, “Secret Video: Romney Tells Millionaire Donors What He Really Thinks of Obama Voters,” [i]Mother Jones[/i] (September 17, 2012). Online:http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/09/secret-video-romney-private-fundraiser

35.
Naomi Wolf,”How the Mitt Romney Video Killed the American Dream,” [i]The Guardian [/i](September 21, 2012). Online:http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/sep/21/mitt-romney-video-killed-american-dream?newsfeed=true

36.
Corn,”Secret Video,” http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/09/secret-video-romney-private-fundraiser

37.
Paul Krugman,”Defining Prosperity Down,” [i]New York Times [/i](August 1, 2010), p. A17.

38.
Zygmunt Bauman is the most important theorist writing about the politics of disposability.  Among his many books, see [i]Wasted Lives [/i](London: Polity Press, 2004).

39.
Robert Reich,”The Rebirth of Social Darwinism,” [i]Robert Reich’s Blog[/i](November 30, 2011). Online: http://robertreich.org/post/13567144944

40.
 
C. Wright Mills, [i]The Politics of Truth: Selected Writings of C. Wright Mills [/i](New York:OxfordUniversity Press, 2008), p. 200.

41.
Hart Research Associates, [i]American Academics: Survey of Part Time and Adjunct Higher Education Faculty[/i] (Washington, D.C.: AFT, 2011). Online:http://www.aft.org/pdfs/highered/aa_partimefaculty0310.pdfSteve Street, Maria Maisto, Esther Merves, and Gary  Rhoades, [i]Who Is Professor “Staff” and How Can This Person Teach So Many Classes?[/i] (Los Angeles: Center for the Future of Higher Education, 2012). Online:http://futureofhighered.org/uploads/ProfStaffFinal.pdf

42.
Andrew Martin and Andrew W. Lehren,”A Generation Hobbled by the Soaring Cost of College,” [i]New York Times [/i](May 12, 2012), p. A1.

43.
Cited in Richard J. Bernstein, [i]The Abuse of Evil: The Corruption of Politics and Religion since 9/11[/i] (London: Polity Press, 2005), pp. 7-8.

44.
Martha C. Nussbaum,[i] Not For Profit: Why Democracy Needs The Humanities[/i](New Jersey:PrincetonUniversity Press, 2010), p. 142.

45. Les Leopold,”Crazy Country: 6 Reasons America Spends More on Prisons Than On Higher Education,” [i]Alternet[/i] (August 27, 2012). Online http://www.alternet.org/education/crazy-country-6-reasons-america-spends-more-prisons-higher-education?paging=off. On this issue, see also the classic work by Angela Y. Davis, [i]Are Prisons Obsolete?[/i] (New York: Open Media, 2003); and Michelle Alexander, [i]The New Jim Crow: Mass Incarceration in the Age of Colorblindness [/i](New York: New Press, 2012).

46.
Erica Goode,”Many in U.S. Are Arrested by Age 23, Study Finds,” New York Times(December 19, 2011), p. A15.

47.
Zygmunt Bauman,[i] The Individualized Society[/i] (London: Polity, 2001), p. 4.

48.
Leopold,”Crazy Country,” http://www.alternet.org/education/crazy-country-6-reasons-america-spends-more-prisons-higher-education?paging=off

49. See, for instance, Rebecca Solnit,”Rain on Our Parade: A Letter to the Dismal Left,” [i]TomDispatch.com[/i] (September 27, 2012). Online:http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/175598/tomgram%3A_rebecca_solnit,_we_could_be_heroes/ TomDispatch refers to this article as a call for hope over despair. It should be labeled as a call for accommodation over the need for a radical democratic politics.  For an alternative to this politics of accommodation, see the work of Stanley Aronowitz, Chris Hedges, Henry Giroux, Noam Chomsky, and others.

50.
Cornelius Castoriadis,”Democracy as Procedure and Democracy as Regime,” [i]Constellations [/i]4:1 (1997), p. 5.

51.
Archon Fung,”The Constructive Responsibility of Intellectuals,” [i]Boston Review[/i](September 9, 2011). Online: http://www.bostonreview.net/BR36.5/archon_fung_noam_chomsky_responsibility_of_intellectuals.php

52.
Heather Gautney,”Why Do Political Elites All Hate Democracy?”[i] LA Progressive[/i] (September 19, 2012). Online: http://www.laprogressive.com/hate-democracy

53.
Stuart Hall and Les Back,”In Conversation: At Home and Not at Home,” [i]Cultural Studies[/i] Vol. 23, No. 4 (July 2009), p. 681.

‘Alternatives to development’: an interview with Arturo Escobar (transitionculture.org)

28 Sep 2012

At the 2012 Degrowth conference in Venice one of the highlights for me was the talk by Arturo Escobar(my notes from which can be found here). He is the author of Encountering Development and Territories of Difference, among others.  His talk looked at how Transition might look in the context of the Global South, and held many fascinating insights.  Here is the interview I did with him, first as an audio file, and below as a transcript.

So, Arturo, could you tell us a little bit about yourself please?

My name is Arturo Escobar, I was born and grew up in Colombia and I teach in the US, at the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill. I teach anthropology and most of my work as an anthropologist is also in Colombia, especially the rainforest region, the Pacific region of Colombia, with African descendant movements and communities.

So Arturo, you gave a presentation yesterday about what Degrowth would look like in the context of the developed world and the developing world, the Global North, the Global South. Could you set out what you see as the prime motivation in each of those places – what’s distinct between those two?

OK.  One of the points that I was trying to make is a parallel between the Degrowth movement as a set of ideas and political projects and social projects for transformation or transition in the Global North, especially in Europe and the US, especially in Europe, the US is still way south as you probably know better than me.

The parallel movement in the US, in Latin America at least, maybe not so much for the Global South as a whole but for Latin America in particular, which is the region of the world that I know the best because I am from there and I’ve been working there for a long time as an anthropologist and ecologist, as an activist, is what I call ‘Alternatives to Development’.

When you talk about Degrowth, I think one of the speakers today referred to that, I think it was Marcelo the theologian who referred to that in our session. When he speaks about Degrowth in Brazil people laugh at him: “why do we need Degrowth with all this poverty and all these problems and all these possibilities for growing?  We Brazilians are growing like crazy, Degrowth doesn’t make any sense”.

I think that’s a mistaken perception of what Degrowth is in Latin America, because people who have looked at Degrowth and Transition Town initiatives in South America, including some environmentalists, they find it appealing and they find that it’s not sufficient for tackling issues in South America.

One of the main ones – and he might be a great person for you to also interview – if  I wanted to point you to one single source in the South American debates on Transition and alternatives to development andBuen Vivir, would be this Uruguayan ecologist whose name is Eduardo Gudynas. He knows about Transition Towns, he’s read your books, he has a great outfit in Montevideo, but he spends most of his time in the Andean region, specifically Nicaragua, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador and Colombia.

Not Chile, not Brazil, not Venezuela, especially the four countries in the Andes. The other person who is really focussing on this is an Ecuadorian whose name is Alberto Acosta, who was the president of the constituent assembly that wrote the new constitution for Ecuador, where there is a huge section on Buen Vivir, and rights of nature, and both of them have been writing about alternatives to development and about the other concept that I didn’t get to explain yesterday which is transitions to post-extractivist model of society and economy.

What they find is that Degrowth – and they have some differences with Degrowth – they say here in Latin America we still have to grow in some ways. People’s livelihoods have to improve, and it’s difficult to do that without some growth. Health, education, housing – there are some sectors where the economy still has to grow.

But the second point they say is that growth has to be subordinated to a different vision of development, which is the Buen Vivir.

Could you tell us a bit more about what that is?

Yes, the Buen Vivir is a concept that has been coming out strongly over the past 10 years, especially in South America, in the context of the emergence of the left-leaning regimes in many South American countries, almost all South American countries with the exception of Colombia and Peru now, well it’s difficult to say what Peru’s current regime is.

In that context, it is the search for a different way of thinking about development and pushed by indigenous peoples and to some extent by peasants, by African descendents, and in collaboration with ecologists, sometimes feminists, sometimes activists from different social movements.  They started to say that for this model of development, this is the moment to change our development model, from a growth-oriented and extraction of natural resources oriented model to something that is more holistic, something that really speaks to the indigenous cosmo-visions of the people in which this notion of prosperity based on material well-being only and material consumption does not exist.  What has been traditionally cultivated among indigenous communities, is not even a notion of development, that is the key, because people are saying Buen Vivir is the new theory of development.

No, it’s not a theory of development. It’s a theory of something else that is not development. People translate it as ‘the good life’. I prefer to translate it as collective well-being. But it’s a collective well-being of both humans and non-humans. Humans, human communities and the natural world, all living beings.

And what does that look like in practice? What are the elements of it?

That’s the key question, the practice, the implementation of the Buen Vivir.  That’s the struggle, especially in Ecuador and Bolivia that have governments that have been put in power mostly by coalitions of social movements, especially indigenous movements, which over the past 6 years since they were elected in 2006, and they were elected with the promise that they were going to carry out this mandate of the Buen Vivir in the constitutions of both Bolivia and Ecuador, with different notions of Buen Vivir in both constitutions.

That said, the goal of state policies should be to promote Buen Vivir which involves social justice, a new notion of rights that includes the rights of nature, ecological sustainability, the elimination of poverty or the reduction of poverty. The reduction of poverty and the protection of nature are the two main dimensions of that.

So there are two sides to the Buen Vivir, which is the social and economic political side, and the rights of nature which is the ecological side. So the aims of the constitutions and development plans, I’ve looked at the development plans of both governments and they are very contradictory, because they say “we have to carry out this mandate”. But they keep falling back to the old ideas about growth and extraction of natural resources and planning as a top-down exercise, and we the experts have decided the plan for theBuen Vivir, but communities feel excluded.

So they clash now in both countries. This is like, so in southern Colombia, southern Mexico, Chiapas and Oaxaca is between indigenous, and peasant, and black movements on the one hand, movements that are for the Buen Vivir, that are for a different vision of development, and the state approach which still is what Gudynas and Acosta in particular call ‘neo-extractivists’.

They are neo-extractivit because they are still based on the extraction of natural resources: oil, natural gas, lithium, soy beans, sugar cane, agro-fuels of all kinds, gold, minerals.  They are Left regimes that are transacting with corporations, Canadian, American, European, South African, Chinese, corporations to take out natural resources. They are not traditional extractivism because, like the older Venezuelan regimes for instance, where there was so much oil, but the oil benefited only a small elite.

Now the idea of these Left regimes, which is a very good idea obviously, is they are going to be using the revenues which are far larger than in the previous regimes that basically gave everything to the corporations. They are going to use the revenues for social redistribution, to reduce poverty and to reduce inequality and to some extent they are doing it. But in the process, they have become this neo-developmentalist development models, pretty much the same as in the past but with a better social policy.

It’s interesting that the starting point was the idea of social justice and linked to environmental protection whereas in England at the moment, for example, the British government there are basically saying we have to go for economic growth at all costs, and environmental protection is optional. It’s interesting to see how with Buen Vivir, that’s been there from the beginning.

Exactly, and that is happening in the US as well, with policies like hydro-fracking which has been given carte blanche all over the place.

So in Transition we get asked about what Transition should look like in the Global South, and we say it’s about building resilience in both places, that the process of globalising food production has reduced food resilience in the Global North because we’ve become so dependent on imports and moving stuff around, and in the Global South it’s about the destruction of small farming and so on and so on. What’s your sense of that balance of how we build resilience in both places?  Also what Transition groups who are working in the Global North can do through their actions to support what’s happening in the South?

I think the concept of resilience is very good and I know that you emphasise it from the very first book, the concept of resilience.  I think it is a concept that could cut across Global North and Global South. I would have to go and look more carefully to see if it is being used now in Latin America, but it is a very fruitful concept, and actually that would be a very good question for Eduardo Gudynas who is a very good friend of mine, so I am going to ask him the question.

There are some parallels that I think could be thought about for both the Global North and the Global South in principle. In practice they would have their own specificities as you yourself said yesterday in your presentation on the first night, because every town basically has its own specificities. Local food, I think is a very important one in the Global North. It is increasingly important in the Global South, under a different umbrella.

The different umbrella is that of food sovereignty, food autonomy. In Colombia for instance, movements prefer to use autonomia alimentaria (food autonomy) which is somewhat different to food sovereignty.  Food sovereignty tends to put the emphasis on the national level, so a county might say we basically produce food for the population blah blah blah, that’s not good enough. There has to be food autonomy locally, regionally, nationally.

So peasant movements like Via Campesina that is a very important movement in Latin America and worldwide is focussing on food sovereignty, and food autonomy to a lesser extent. So the question of food is crucial as an entry point to Transition.

Energy?  Energy is so important to the Global North, I see it as less important to the Global South, and that doesn’t necessarily mean something good. We should be thinking more about energy, and that’s actually one of Gudynas’s co-workers now that I recall, who has a programme on energy, in particular for South America. He talks about the transformations that have to take place on the level of energy for transitions to take place.

The people in the Global North who say ‘oh, you can’t talk about local food because if you talk about local food you’re condemning farmers in Kenya and Chile to poverty and unemployment. How do you respond to that argument?

I don’t think it makes any sense! If you look carefully, sure, there’s a lot of food being grown in Africa, Asia and South America for the European and American markets, but who’s benefiting from that? Most times it’s not local peasants. It ceased to be local peasants at least two or three decades ago.

Even some of the agro-fuels that are touted as big solutions environmentally and so forth, like African palm which I know very well because it has been planted in Colombia all over the place. It’s being done at the expense of local communities, local ecosystems, by large Colombian capitalists or by large corporations.

I know that in parts of Africa and the Middle East it’s mostly German and European corporations that are planting food in these countries, with local cheap labour, to be exported to European markets. So on the contrary, I think local food in the north is going to be good for local food in the south. It’s going to stop this idea that the south will have to grow luxury crops for the Global North.

So if a Transition initiative in the Global North is actively working to localise its food supply, to reduce its carbon footprint, to put in place renewable energy infrastructure, localise it’s economy, is your sense that by default that that is helping the movement towards alternative development in the Global South or could they be doing something more mindfully, more intentionally to support that struggle at the same time?

I think that the first option that you outlined is the better way to think about it. That doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t do it thinking about the Global South as well, and how the Global South is affected. There might be cases in which particular groups in the Global South might be hurt by practices that emerge in the Global North around Transition initiatives, for instance one of the speakers this morning, Antonella Picchio, a feminist economist, who says we should always think from the perspective of women.

In principle that’s very good. How do we ask the question – how might our activities in Transition initiatives in the Global North benefit, or hurt, particular vulnerable groups in the Global South.  Women, indigenous peoples, black peoples, ethnic minorities and peasants in particular.  I think that’s always a very good question to ask. It’s not such a huge question to answer, you sort of follow the threads of the actions.

But as a whole I would tend to think Transition activities in the Global North would tend to contribute if not immediately, at least at some point, to alternatives to development and local autonomies in the Global South to the extent that they continue to erode corporate power, which is what unites and which is really screwing up everybody, including people in the Global North.

My Finnish and Canadian friends tell me that the same corporations that have been screwing up the Global South for so many decades are now doing the same in northern Canada and Finland. So it’s not even going to be the north that’s going to be spared anymore.  In that sense I think the alliances have to be built. The conversations between Transition activists in the north and Transition activists in the south have to be cultivated. They will be somewhat difficult conversations and I think the questions you are asking are the ones we have to start with.

The concept, the practice of Transition that we use for different parts of the world, we have to take into account that they will be inter-cultural conversations, inter-epistemic conversations, different knowledge is going to be involved, and those require translation.  Translation across knowledges, across cultures, across histories, across different ways of being negatively affected by globalisation, across levels of privilege and so forth.

Is just applying the concept of localisation, going to generate sufficient employment to create the kind of employment that these countries need?

Probably not. I think it has to be a level, certainly a lot of emphasis on local actions, local solutions, but there has to be also some degree of thinking and policy implementation at the regional level and at the national level. The state has to become more part of the solution than part of the problem that it is now. Now it is much more of the problem.

With some of these progressive regimes it has tried to become part of the solution as well in terms of connecting with social movements, but the give and take between social movements that are pushing more for the local autonomy, the protection of territories, the preservation of cultural and biological diversity on the one hand, and the state, who has the national or transnational level in mind, is going again really tight, and ruptures are beginning to happen, even in countries like Bolivia and Ecuador where there has been more closeness between the state and the movements.

What’s the role of technology here? There are some people who would say if we could do open-source genetic modification then that would have a role. There are all these technologies like nuclear power, these kinds of things.  In your take on alternatives to development what constitutes good technology and what constitutes a technology that doesn’t have a place?

I think technology is super important.  I think Buen Vivir indigenous communities, Afro-descendant communities, peasant communities, they are not opposed to technology per se. If they can be connected to the internet, if they can have technologies that improve the productivity of the land, if they can have technologies that improve their living standards, that’s all great.

What they are opposed to is having those technologies coming in at the expense of their autonomy, at the expense of their territories, at the expense of their cultural traditions, at the expense of their world-views and ways of living. But when you read – and I think this is a misconception – that the Buen Vivir, because it has been promoted mostly by indigenous movements and intellectuals is something about going back to the past  – it’s not at all. It’s not about going back.

Someone said that here today too, that Degrowth is not about going back, it’s about moving forwards. The same with indigenous communities, it’s about moving forwards, but how?  The difference is “how?”  The way in which we’re moving forwards today on the basis of growth and instructivism and profit and the dominance of one particular model which is capitalism and modernity, for many communities and in the movements, that is the end and that has to stop.

But it’s not anti-technology and it’s not anti-modern. For me the criteria is to weaken or lessen the dominance of the growth model, the hi-tech model, the conventional economic neo-liberal model and the dominance of one particular cultural framework which is the cultural framework of modernity, and to allow for many different world-views and frameworks.

Risco calculado (Fapesp)

Workshop sobre extremos do clima expõe o desafio de converter informação científica em prevenção de desastres

FABRÍCIO MARQUES | Edição 199 – Setembro de 2012

Inundação em parque de diversões de Nova Orleans após a passagem do furacão Katrina, em 2005: tragédia despertou a consciência norte-americana. © BOB MCMILLAN / FEMA PHOTO

É praticamente certo – a certeza, no caso, chega a 99% – que vá ocorrer até 2100 um aumento na frequência de dias e noites quentes em diferentes regiões do planeta. Já em relação à intensidade das chuvas, que efetivamente recrudesceram em diversas áreas, ainda há dúvidas se o fenômeno é global – os dados disponíveis indicam que as previsões nessa direção têm um grau de confiança de 66%. Divulgado em março passado, o Relatório Especial sobre Gestão dos Riscos de Extremos Climáticos e Desastres (SREX, na sigla em inglês) apontou essas tendências, entre várias outras, com base no conhecimento científico recente compilado pelo Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC). Seus resultados foram discutidos numa reunião realizada no auditório Moise Safra, no Centro de Convenções Albert Einstein, em São Paulo, entre os dias 16 e 17 de agosto, na qual pesquisadores de vários países também debateram estratégias para o gerenciamento dos impactos e para levar o conhecimento aos tomadores de decisão. Oworkshop “Gestão dos riscos dos extremos climáticos e desastres na América Central e na América do Sul – o que podemos aprender com o Relatório Especial do IPCC sobre extremos?”, foi promovido pela FAPESP e pelo Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (Inpe).

“Ficou claro nas discussões que a interface dos cientistas com gestores e comunidades locais é um ponto crítico. Há muito ruído nessa comunicação”, disse à Agência FAPESPo climatologista José Marengo, coordenador do workshop e membro do comitê organizador do SREX. Talvez a recomendação mais importante extraída dos debates tenha sido essa: é preciso estabelecer novos canais de diálogo entre cientistas e autoridades para enfrentar os riscos de desastres resultantes de eventos climáticos extremos e reduzir os prejuízos que eles causam. A necessidade de participação mais ativa dos governos em decisões relacionadas a questões como vulnerabilidade às mudanças climáticas e estratégias de adaptação também foi destacada pelos pesquisadores presentes no workshop. “Os governos se mostram pouco preparados e continuam sendo pegos de surpresa por eventos meteorológicos que estão aumentando em frequência e intensidade, como mostram os relatórios, e deverão aumentar ainda mais no futuro”, disse Marengo, que é coordenador do Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre do Inpe e lidera um projeto temático, no âmbito do Programa FAPESP de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais (PFPMCG), acerca do impacto dos extremos do clima nos ecossistemas e na saúde humana no Brasil.

Segundo o pesquisador, frequentemente existem recursos para mapeamento de risco e remoção de população em áreas vulneráveis, mas o dinheiro acaba sendo transferido para outras áreas. “Isso mostra uma falha no nosso diálogo com os governos locais. Não é segredo que o clima está mudando e todos os anos pessoas morrem por conta de desastres que poderiam ser evitados se esses recursos fossem aplicados”, afirmou.

A forma como a informação científica alcança a sociedade frequentemente é diversa da imaginada pelos pesquisadores.  
“Apareceram nos nossos debates discussões, por exemplo, sobre termos como ‘incerteza’, que é derivado da área de modelagem climática e cujo conceito nós cientistas compreendemos, mas que ainda não foi traduzido adequadamente para o público”, disse Marengo. Outra confusão envolve o próprio conceito de desastre. “Não são as chuvas que matam as pessoas. É a combinação delas com famílias morando em encostas e em residências precárias. Não dá para acabar com as chuvas intensas, mas, com planejamento, é possível reduzir o número de mortes”, afirmou o pesquisador. A percepção da sociedade sobre as mudanças climáticas obedece a uma lógica às vezes distinta da dos cientistas. Marengo cita como exemplo o furacão Katrina, que devastou o sul dos Estados Unidos em 2005 e inundou a cidade de Nova Orleans. “Não há como afirmar que o Katrina, analisado de forma isolada, seja resultado das mudanças globais. Mas foi esse evento que despertou a população norte-americana para o problema”, afirmou.

Escassez de dados

Uma das principais conclusões do relatório SREX, que foi elaborado pelo IPCC a pedido do governo da Noruega e da Estratégia Internacional para a Redução de Desastres (Eird), da Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU), é que vem ocorrendo um aumento na frequência de eventos climáticos extremos no mundo nas últimas décadas em razão das mudanças climáticas. Com base nas evidências presentes, o relatório indica que é altamente provável um aumento na frequência de dias e noites quentes nos próximos anos em diferentes regiões do planeta. Mas é incerto se alguns fenômenos climáticos extremos tendem a ocorrer em escala global, devido à escassez de dados. O documento aponta dúvidas em relação ao aumento da frequência de chuvas intensas em todo o mundo, indicando regiões que apresentam aumento e outras onde ocorreu redução do evento climático. Também faltam evidências de que ciclones tropicais tenham se tornado mais frequentes, embora as chuvas relacionadas com esses fenômenos, de fato,  estejam mais intensas. Da mesma forma, é possível que secas atinjam com mais frequência e intensidade certas regiões do planeta, como o Nordeste brasileiro ou o México, mas não representem um fenômeno generalizado no planeta.

© FOTOS 1 E 2 LÉO RAMOS 3 BIDGEE / WIKICOMMONS 4 NASA 5 TOMAS CASTELAZO

Para os pesquisadores que produziram o relatório, um dos principais desafios foi afinar os discursos entre especialistas de diversas áreas. “Foi o primeiro esforço para trocar conhecimento de maneira multidisciplinar”, disse a médica e professora da Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (Unam), Úrsula Oswald Spring, que participou da elaboração do SREX e esteve noworkshop de São Paulo. “Sem construir uma linguagem comum, não é possível avançar nas soluções dos problemas colocados pelas mudanças climáticas.”

Apesar das incertezas sobre a extensão e a frequência dos fenômenos climáticos extremos no futuro, seu impacto, hoje, já é palpável. Dados apresentados por Úrsula Spring mostraram que mulheres e crianças são as maiores vítimas de furacões, terremotos, tsunamis, inundações e outros eventos extremos, climáticos ou não. Elas representam de 68% a 89% das mortes que ocorrem nesses fenômenos no mundo todo. As mulheres são 72% das pessoas que vivem em condições de extrema pobreza, o que as torna mais vulneráveis em situações de desastres. “O papel das mulheres é o de cuidar, então salvam filhos, pais e animais e não enxergam o risco que correm”, disse Úrsula, que pesquisa o tema há 10 anos. O prejuízo também é muito maior em países pobres: 95% das mortes por desastres naturais ocorrem em países em desenvolvimento. “Para que grandes desastres ocorram é necessário que a população esteja vulnerável e exposta”, afirmou o professor da Universidad Católica do Chile, Sebastián Vicuña.

Deslizamentos

O climatologista Carlos Nobre, que é secretário de Políticas e Programas de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento do Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (MCTI), membro da coordenação do Programa FAPESP de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais (PFPMCG) e do IPCC, enumerou estudos publicados por pesquisadores do estado de São Paulo que tratam dos riscos causados pela maior frequência de chuvas intensas. Um deles apontou um aumento do número de áreas suscetíveis a alagamentos e que apresentam risco maior de deslizamentos de terra na capital paulista. Outro estudo demonstrou que, com a urbanização, as áreas de chuva intensa se expandem e aumenta o risco de contaminação por leptospirose – doença transmitida principalmente pela urina de roedores. Já uma pesquisa feita no Departamento de Ecologia da Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), campus de Rio Claro, em parceria com o Inpe, mostrou que Campinas e Ribeirão Preto são as duas regiões no estado de São Paulo mais vulneráveis às mudanças climáticas. A concentração populacional em Campinas potencializa as consequências de uma enchente. Já no caso de Ribeirão Preto, a região deverá registrar temperaturas mais altas nas próximas décadas. “Podemos discernir em algumas regiões os impactos socioeconômicos causados pela aceleração dos eventos climáticos, que estão associados a maior vulnerabilidade das populações em razão da crescente urbanização do mundo e, em particular, das cidades da América Latina, onde esse processo ocorreu nas últimas décadas de forma caótica”, disse Nobre à Agência FAPESP. No Brasil, os recursos para reconstrução de regiões assoladas por desastres causados por eventos climáticos extremos tiveram uma evolução muito rápida nos últimos 10 anos e ultrapassaram o patamar de R$ 1,6 bilhão em 2011, apontou Nobre. Se há incertezas sobre a tendência de aumento da frequência de chuva em escala global, no caso de São Paulo não restam dúvidas de que as chuvas intensas têm aumentado muito na cidade nos últimos 50 ou 70 anos, observou Nobre. “Hoje temos três vezes mais chuvas intensas do que há 70 anos. E as evidências de que esse tipo de evento ocorre com maior frequência na capital paulista estão muito bem documentadas”, afirmou.

Os resultados do relatório SREX serão aproveitados e atualizados nos próximos relatórios que o IPCC divulgará em 2013. Segundo Marengo, ainda há uma escassez de estudos sobre vulnerabilidade às mudanças climáticas em regiões brasileiras. Para produzir o SREX, pôs-se de lado a norma não escrita de que um bom estudo científico é apenas aquele publicado em revistas especializadas de língua inglesa. “Conseguimos atingir um nível bom em algumas publicações brasileiras, mas ainda falta mais literatura científica publicada no país”, afirmou o pesquisador.  Os pesquisadores detectaram a necessidade de aumentar o financiamento de estudos sobre mudanças climáticas, com apoio de instituições governamentais e não governamentais. Os grupos recomendaram ainda o fortalecimento das instituições locais de gerenciamento de risco. “Não é preciso criar novas instituições, mas fortalecer as que já existem”, afirmou Marengo.

IPCC enters new stage of Fifth Assessment Report review (IPCC)

GENEVA, 5 October – The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is moving to a new stage in the preparation of its next major report, the Fifth Assessment Report, with the first of three government and expert reviews that will take place between now and May 2013.

The multi-stage review of draft reports is a key element of the IPCC assessment process. The main stages are the review of the first order draft by scientific experts, the review of the second order draft by Governments and experts, which starts today, and a final round of government comments on the draft Summary for Policymakers.

In the second stage of the review, IPCC member Governments are invited to review the second order drafts of the reports. Individuals with relevant expertise may also provide expert comments. The purpose of this government and expert review is to help ensure that the report represents the latest scientific and technical findings, provides a balanced and comprehensive assessment of the current information and is consistent with the mandate of the working groups and the outline of the Fifth Assessment Report that was approved by the Panel in October 2009.

  • For Working Group I, which covers the physical science basis of climate change, the government and expert review of the second order draft runs from 5 October to 30 November 2012. Further details are available at https://sod.ipcc.unibe.ch/registration/.
  • The government and expert review period for the second order draft of Working Group II, covering impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, will run from 29 March to 24 May 2013. More information will be available at www.ipcc-wg2.gov closer to that time.
  • Working Group III, which assesses the mitigation of climate change, will hold the government and expert review of its second order draft from 25 February to 22 April 2013. Further information will be available nearer the time at www.ipcc-wg3.de/ .

The number of experts involved in the review of the first order draft of the three IPCC working groups ranged from 563 to 659 for each working group, resulting in between 16,124 and 21,400 comments for each working group’s draft. Report authors must respond to each comment and they draw on the comments to produce the second order drafts. Experts who took part in this review are also invited to comment on the second order draft.

Following the multi-stage review, the Summary for Policymakers and the full report are submitted for approval and acceptance to the IPCC Plenary, its main decision-taking body. To ensure transparency, all review comments and author responses are made available on the IPCC website after the reports are accepted and finalized.

Working Group I will release its Summary for Policymakers in September 2013. Working Group II will release its Summary for Policymakers in March 2014, followed by Working Group III in April 2014. The Synthesis Report, that synthesizes key findings from the assessment reports of the IPCC’s three working groups and from recent Special Reports, is due to be released in October 2014, marking the end of the current assessment cycle.

British Met Office facing legal action over pessimistic forecasts (Independent.ie)

Wednesday October 03 2012

A tourist attraction is considering suing The Met Office after it claims a string of pessimistic forecasts kept visitors away.

Rick Turner owner of the Big Sheep in Abbotsham, Devon, said poor forecasting was to blame for lower attendance at his farm attraction business.

Mr Turner is so angry he says he’ll take the agency to court unless its forecasts improve.

He said: “The Met Office seems to come up with such pessimistic forecasts predicting chances of rain when we’re enjoying sunshine.

“We’ve had a lot rain – that’s why it’s nice and green.

“But it’s important for the tourist industry that when we do have sunshine we need to be shouting about it rather than saying there might be some chance of rain.

“The Met Office forecasters need to realise that everything they say has an impact on whether people go on holiday or go for a day out.”

The Met Office insists that forecasters have no reason to dampen spirits and are simply doing their best with the data available.

But the weather service admitted ‘No weather forecaster is going to get it 100 per cent right all the time.’

“We have to tell the weather as it is that’s what our job is. This summer has been thoroughly disappointing,” said forecaster Dave Britton.

“It’ll be hard to find someone who hasn’t found that. It’s been the wettest summer in 100 years.

“The UK is lucky enough to have one of the best weather forecasting services in the world – we should recognise that.

“We have to remember Devon is the third or fourth wettest county in England. The Met Office can’t stop it raining. We get it right 87 or 88 per cent of the time which is absolutely phenomenal.”

Malcolm Bell a tourism expert in the south west said forecasts needed to be more balanced: “The challenge is that in the forecasts the Met office says there could be showers here or there when in fact it could be dry for 90 per cent of the time.

“People just hear the word rain and that puts them off going somewhere for the day.

“There’s a difference between that goes on for two or three hours and rain that lasts ten minutes in a shower and then passes through.

“I know it’s an incredibly difficult task for the Met Office but I always advise people to look at the websites – you have to get quite local to get more accurate.”

In June Claire Jeavons, who runs the Beverley Park holiday site in Paignton, Devon, said “alarmist” forecasts which often proved groundless were having a major impact on bookings across the West Country.

Claire Jeavons, who runs the Beverley Park holiday site in Paignton, Devon, said “alarmist” forecasts which often proved groundless were having a major impact on bookings across the West Country.

“It is already causing holiday-makers to stay away,” she said. “Just a few days ago we were hearing that all caravan parks in the West Country were on flood alert, and this simply wasn’t the case.”

Tony Clish, director of Park Holidays UK which owns 700 caravans in Suffolk, said he believes weather forecasters are afraid of being caught out after recent predictions of a “barbecue summer” were proved to be inaccurate.

He said: “Coastal holiday parks in Suffolk often stay dry when it is raining inland, yet forecasters frequently tarnish the whole county with a single wet-weather symbol.

“We’re not asking them to bend the truth, but just to be more careful with phrasing. For example, they could say that while inland areas may have showers, coastal areas are expected to be dry.”

ONU quer garantir que temperatura global não se eleve mais que 2ºC (Globo Natureza)

JC e-mail 4582, de 13 de Setembro de 2012

As negociações climáticas da Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU) devem continuar pressionando por atitudes mais ambiciosas para garantir que o aquecimento global não ultrapasse os 2 graus, disse um negociador da União Europeia nesta semana, um mês depois de os EUA terem sido acusados de apresentar um retrocesso na meta.

Quase 200 países concordaram em 2010 em limitar o aumento das temperaturas para abaixo de 2 graus Celsius, acima da era pré-industrial para evitar os impactos perigos da mudança climática, como enchentes, secas e elevação do nível das marés.

Para desacelerar o ritmo do aquecimento global, as conversações climáticas da ONU na África do Sul concordaram em desenvolver um acordo climático legalmente vinculante até 2015, que poderia entrar em vigor no máximo até 2020.

Entretanto, especialistas advertem que a chance de limitar o aumento da temperatura global para menos de 2 graus está ficando cada vez menor, à medida que aumenta a emissão dos gases de efeito estufa por causa da queima de combustíveis fósseis.

“Está muito claro que devemos pressionar nas negociações de que a meta de 2 graus não é suficiente. A razão pela qual não estamos fazendo o bastante se deve à situação política em algumas partes do mundo”, disse Peter Betts, o diretor para mudança climática internacional da Grã-Bretanha e negociador sênior da UE, a um grupo de mudança climática no Parlamento britânico.

Na última semana, cientistas e diplomatas se reuniram em Bangcoc para a reunião da Convenção da ONU sobre Mudança Climática (UNFCCC, na sigla em inglês), a última antes do encontro anual que será realizado entre novembro e dezembro em Doha, no Qatar.

Flexibilidade nas metas – No mês passado, os EUA foram criticados por dizer que apoiavam uma abordagem mais flexível para um novo acordo climático – que não necessariamente manteria o limite de 2 graus -, mas depois acrescentaram que a flexibilidade daria ao mundo uma chance maior de chegar a um novo acordo.

Diversos países, incluindo alguns dos mais vulneráveis à mudança climática, dizem que o limite de 2 graus não é suficiente e que um limite de 1,5 graus seria mais seguro. As emissões do principal gás de efeito estufa, o dióxido de carbono, subiram 3,1% em 2011, em um recorde de alta. A China foi a maior emissora do mundo, seguida pelos EUA.

As negociações para a criação de um novo acordo global para o clima, nos mesmos moldes de Kyoto, já iniciaram. Na última conferência climática foi aprovada uma série de medidas que estabelece metas para países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento.

O documento denominado “Plataforma de Durban para Ação Aumentada” aponta uma série de medidas que deverão ser implementadas, mas na prática, não há medidas efetivas urgentes para conter em todo o planeta o aumento dos níveis de poluição nos próximos oito anos.

Obrigação para todos no futuro – Ele prevê a criação de um acordo global climático que vai compreender todos os países integrantes da UNFCCC e irá substituir o Protocolo de Kyoto. Será desenhado pelos países “um protocolo, outro instrumento legal ou um resultado acordado com força legal” para combater as mudanças climáticas.

Isso quer dizer que metas de redução de gases serão definidas para todas as nações, incluindo Estados Unidos e China, que não aceitavam qualquer tipo de negociação se uma das partes não fosse incluída nas obrigações de redução.

O delineamento deste novo plano começará a ser feito a partir das próximas negociações da ONU, o que inclui a COP 18, que vai acontecer em 2012 no Catar. O documento afirma que um grupo de trabalho será criado e que deve concluir o novo plano em 2015.

As medidas de contenção da poluição só deverão ser implementadas pelos países a partir de 2020, prazo estabelecido na Plataforma de Durban, e deverão levar em conta as recomendações do relatório do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC, na sigla em inglês), que será divulgado entre 2014 e 2015.

Em 2007, o organismo divulgou um documento que apontava para um aumento médio global das temperaturas entre 1,8 ºC e 4,0 ºC até 2100, com possibilidade de alta para 6,4 ºC se a população e a economia continuarem crescendo rapidamente e se for mantido o consumo intenso dos combustíveis fósseis.

Entretanto, a estimativa mais confiável fala em um aumento médio de 3ºC, assumindo que os níveis de dióxido de carbono se estabilizem em 45% acima da taxa atual. Aponta também, com mais de 90% de confiabilidade, que a maior parte do aumento de temperatura observado nos últimos 50 anos foi provocada por atividades humanas.

O esvaziamento da discussão ecológica atual que não questiona o modelo econômico e de desenvolvimento (EcoDebate)

Publicado em setembro 6, 2012 por 

“A pergunta passa a ser ‘o que eu devo fazer para ajudar?’ (…) enquanto a questão principal deveria ser ‘contra quem e contra o quê eu devo lutar?’”

 Vladimir Safatle faz parte de uma nova leva de intelectuais de esquerda que não se intimida diante da diversidade de questões trazidas pelo mundo contemporâneo. Nessa entrevista, o professor do Departamento de Filosofia da Universidade de São Paulo (USP) mostra que a crise da democracia representativa pode ser a chave para compreender melhor fatos que à primeira vista não estão relacionados, desvelando mecanismos que ligam islandeses a pescadores brasileiros, ecologistas a jovens que voltam a reivindicar as ruas como espaço do fazer político. Um dos autores de ‘Occupy’ (Boitempo, 2012), Safatle defende que vivemos um momento em que a crítica da democracia, longe de balizar o totalitarismo, reacende a capacidade de reinvenção democrática na perspectiva da soberania popular. Com o lançamento de ‘A esquerda que não teme dizer seu nome’ (Três Estrelas, 2012), o filósofo propõe a urgência da saída do “cômodo e depressivo fatalismo”, que, desde a queda do muro de Berlim, alimenta a falsa impressão de que nenhuma ruptura radical está na pauta do campo político.

No seu livro, o senhor defende que falta à esquerda mostrar o que é inegociável. Abandonar o pragmatismo, superar os impasses da ‘governabilidade’, dentre outros elementos, seriam caminhos para isso. Em contrapartida, paira uma dúvida sobre os próprios partidos, sindicatos e estruturas semelhantes: será que serão capazes de se transformar? Os jovens que ocupam as ruas do mundo parecem não se identificar com esse tipo de organização da vida política. Por que isso acontece?

O que aconteceu com os partidos de esquerda?

Os partidos de esquerda passaram por duas fases. A primeira, muito marcada pela polaridade entre os partidos socialdemocratas e os partidos comunistas, sustentou o desenvolvimento dos Estados de bem-estar social na Europa nos anos 1950 e 1960. O segundo momento dos partidos de esquerda é resultado das ideias libertárias de maio de 1968, que vai gerar uma miríade de partidos libertários, sendo o mais importante deles o partido verde. Os partidos verdes vão conseguir impor uma pauta ecológica fundamental no debate político, mas este movimento também se esgotou. Talvez o último relance dele esteja acontecendo na Alemanha com o Partido Pirata. Só que falta uma terceira leva de partidos que sejam capazes de processar a situação fim de linha da crise de 2008, que ainda vai se perpetuar durante muito tempo.

Como esses partidos se caracterizariam?

Falta uma geração de partidos que tenha consciência de problemas vinculados à desigualdade econômica, coisa que esses partidos de segunda geração não têm. Diga-se de passagem, o Partido Verde alemão foi responsável pela lei que desregulamentou e flexibilizou o mercado de trabalho, votada na época do Gerhard Schröder [premier alemão de 1998 a 2005]. Falta uma geração de partidos com a coragem de radicalizar os processos de institucionalização da soberania popular. Partidos que não funcionem como partidos. Isso pode parecer uma coisa estranha, mas no fundo é muito importante. Partidos que não tenham essa estrutura centralizada, estrategicamente orientada, em que as discussões se submetem às estratégias político-partidárias eleitorais do dia. Por que os jovens não querem entrar em partidos hoje? Porque não querem ter a sua capacidade crítica instrumentalizada por cálculos eleitorais. Ninguém mais quer ficar fazendo uma aliança política com fulano para garantir a eleição de sicrano. Esse tipo de raciocínio de mercador, que conseguiu monopolizar a política em todos os seus níveis – inclusive no campo das esquerdas – é o que boa parte dos jovens de hoje se recusa veementemente a seguir, com todas as razões.

O que se coloca no lugar disso?

É fundamental encontrar um modelo de participação eleitoral em que esse tipo de posição não seja rifada. Ninguém aqui está fazendo a profissão de fé que vigorou nos anos 1990 de mudar o mundo sem tomar o poder. Isso não funcionou nem funcionará, o Egito é um exemplo. O grupo que realmente mobilizou o processo revolucionário chama-se Movimento 6 de abril. Eles decidiram não entrar no jogo eleitoral e estão cada vez mais isolados. Essa coisa da força que vem das ruas e vai pressionar o regime de fora tem limite. Então, não se trata de uma crítica abstrata do processo eleitoral, mas da constatação de que é necessário saber entrar nesse processo de uma maneira diferente da que vimos até hoje. Talvez a criação de alianças flexíveis para uma eleição que depois se dissolvem, como a Frente de Esquerda na França, coisas desse tipo. É difícil saber o que vai aparecer, mas uma coisa é certa: o que temos hoje não dá mais conta. Há uma fixação muito grande na democracia representativa. Desde os anos 1970 vivemos nas Ciências Políticas uma espécie de deleite em ficar discutindo como deve ser o jogo democrático, a estrutura dos partidos, dos poderes e blá, blá, blá. Esse tipo de perspectiva bloqueia radicalmente a ideia de que uma das questões centrais da democracia é fazer a crítica da democracia. Quando a democracia perde sua capacidade de reinvenção, ela morre. É o que está acontecendo agora.

O que contribuiu para a recomposição do espaço público das ruas e por que ele foi abandonado durante tanto tempo?

Para você ter crítica social e mobilização é necessário desencanto. Vários níveis de desencanto foram necessários para que as pessoas voltassem às ruas. Quando eu tinha vinte e poucos anos, o discurso era de que nunca mais veríamos grandes mobilizações populares. Poderia haver mobilizações pontuais sobre questões pontuais, mas nunca uma mobilização que colocasse em xeque o modelo de funcionamento e gestão da vida social no interior das sociedades capitalistas avançadas. Hoje vemos que quem fez essas previsões não só errou como tinha interesses ideológicos inconfessáveis. As pessoas que saíram às ruas em 2011 queriam discutir o modelo de funcionamento da estrutura econômica e social das nossas sociedades. No momento em que isso aconteceu, muitos, principalmente da imprensa, se deleitaram em dizer que eles não tinham propostas, o que é falso. Quem foi às ruas buscou o direito de colocar os problemas em questão. Muitas vezes, a pior maneira de se pensar em um problema é “solucioná-lo” muito rapidamente. Também houve quem não tenha ido às ruas e, diante da crise financeira, apareceu com soluções prontas. Essas ‘soluções’ só pioraram os problemas.

No que diz respeito à agenda ambiental, existem muitas ‘soluções’ que, na verdade, provocam um esvaziamento deliberado do potencial político das questões ecológicas. Vemos a individualização da responsabilidade pela poluição presente no discurso das sacolas plásticas, do tempo que as pessoas devem gastar tomando banho, etc. e também um esforço em afastar a população da discussão travestindo-a como eminentemente técnica. Como vê isso?

É uma tentativa de retirar a força política da questão ecológica transformando-a em uma questão moral. A discussão gira em torno dos atos dos indivíduos, que precisam ser modificados. Você precisa gastar menos tempo no banho, comprar produtos bio e coisas desse tipo. É uma maneira muita astuta de operar um deslocamento que é mortal para o problema ecológico, porque a pergunta passa a ser “o que eu devo fazer para ajudar?” – e, a princípio, parece legal todo mundo fazer alguma coisa para ajudar –, enquanto a questão principal deveria ser “contra quem e contra o quê eu devo lutar?”. Sem isso, a tendência é esvaziar completamente a dimensão da discussão ecológica, não se questiona o modelo econômico e de desenvolvimento. E o forte potencial político dessa discussão reside justamente nesse questionamento do modelo de desenvolvimento das sociedades capitalistas avançadas, colocando em xeque o modelo de organização e gestão das cidades, dos transportes, dos resíduos, da energia… Como resultado desse deslocamento da dimensão política para a moral, nada disso é colocado em questão, por mais que todo mundo defenda com a mão no coração “as florestas”, a questão que a ecologia trouxe está fora do debate.

A retórica do discurso técnico na qual as pessoas não conseguem ter acesso aos fatos sem a mediação de especialistas é um obstáculo para a reconstrução do campo político nas bases dessa democracia direta, estreitamente ligada aos reais interesses das populações, não?

Posso dar um exemplo sobre esse tipo de problema. A Islândia foi um dos primeiros países a entrar na crise financeira de 2008. Bancos islandeses venderam fundos de investimento na Holanda e na Inglaterra e quando esses bancos quebraram, os governos holandês e inglês exigiram que o governo da Islândia bancasse a dívida dos bancos. Diante disso, o parlamento islandês resolveu votar uma lei de ajuda aos bancos falidos e a lei passou. Mas o presidente da Islândia, que era um sujeito mais esclarecido, lembrou que a Constituição do país previa a convocação de um referendo popular em casos como aquele. Resumindo, ele lembrou que o princípio central da democracia é: quem paga a orquestra, escolhe a música. Quem pagaria aquela dívida não seria o parlamento, mas a população, que teria seus recursos e salários expropriados por uma série de impostos destinados ao pagamento da dívida dos bancos. A população islandesa decidiu que não queria isso. Depois do resultado do referendo, aconteceu a coisa mais fantástica, que é a essência da democracia parlamentar atual: o parlamento votou e aprovou mais uma vez a mesma lei de ajuda aos bancos. Então, novamente, o presidente acionou o mecanismo do referendo popular e, pela segunda vez, os islandeses disseram não. O que isso significa? Alguns podem questionar “como uma questão ‘técnica’ dessas vai parar em referendo popular?”, acusar o presidente de demagogia, etc., o que é absolutamente surreal. Não é possível que parlamentares que têm suas campanhas pagas por bancos definam o que vai acontecer com o dinheiro da população em relação ao pagamento ou não da dívida destes bancos. Não faltaram economistas prevendo que a Islândia iria quebrar. No entanto, de todos os países que entraram na crise, a Islândia é um dos que está em melhor situação atualmente. A tentativa de retirar a força política da decisão era simplesmente uma construção ideológica para legitimar os “técnicos”, que, no fundo, de técnicos não têm nada porque representantes do poder financeiro que conseguiu tomar conta de todas as instituições das democracias avançadas. Esse é o limite da democracia atual. O sistema financeiro é o grande inimigo da democracia.

Existe um tipo de agenda ambiental apoiada na entrada de bens comuns para o mercado que vem sendo denunciada como a solução encontrada pelo sistema financeiro para sair da crise ao mesmo tempo em que, também apoiada na retórica da crise, Angela Merkel lidera na zona do Euro políticas de austeridade que deslegitimam a vontade soberana dos povos, como no caso grego. Como ‘a esquerda que não teme dizer seu nome’ se coloca nesse processo?

Os problemas ligados à ecologia têm um forte potencial não só mobilizador como também transformador. No entanto, nós temos hoje duas ecologias. Uma tem um potencial transformador, mas a outra é conservadora. O capitalismo vê na ecologia um dos elementos de sua renovação. Hoje, qualquer liberal, qualquer analista de Wall Street vai admitir o discurso ecológico. Há alguns autores que falam que depois da bolha imobiliária, nós temos agora a bolha verde. Uma vez escrevi um pequeno texto sobre o filme Wall Street [2010], de Oliver Stone, que me impressionou pela agudez da metáfora. Um jovem analista do mercado aposta no potencial financeiro das energias renováveis. Ele era um visionário porque, de certa maneira, pregava uma reconciliação entre o setor mais rentista da economia e algumas exigências presentes na pauta ecológica. Isso só pode ser feito rifando completamente a dimensão em que a reflexão ecológica aparece como um elemento fundamental de afirmação da soberania popular. Existe uma tendência bizarra, mas muito concreta, de articulação entre um determinado setor de lutas ecológicas e o capital financeiro. Inclusive, do ponto de vista eleitoral, acontece muita coisa complicada. Os partidos verdes europeus preferem se aliar a partidos de centro do que aos partidos de esquerda. Por exemplo, na Alemanha, o Partido Verde prefere uma aliança com a CDU [partido democrata-cristão da primeira-ministra Angela Merkel] do que uma aliança com a Die LINK, que é um partido de esquerda mais dura. Na França foi a mesma coisa. Tudo isso me parece muito preocupante. É necessário livrar a agenda ecológica dessa tendência à justificativa de um liberalismo renovado para recolocá-la no lugar onde ela sempre esteve, ou seja, como elemento fundamental da reflexão da esquerda sobre o caráter deletério dos processos de desenvolvimento do capitalismo avançado.

Como o novo pensamento de esquerda pode articular uma mirada filosófica diferente para a questão do uso produtivista da natureza, característico do neodesenvolvimentismo aqui no Brasil?

Eu reconheço que esse produtivismo em relação à natureza também esteve muito presente em certos setores da esquerda que, durante muito tempo, entenderam a natureza como fonte de recursos e só. Basta lembrar que nos países comunistas a política ambiental foi catastrófica. Isso, inclusive, tem base teórica, vem de uma leitura do pensamento marxista em que a natureza era um discurso reificado, sem realidade ontológica em si. Em última instância, a natureza era o fruto do trabalho humano então a intervenção humana na natureza já estava justificada de antemão, sem maiores contradições. Mas acredito que do ponto de vista da esquerda hoje existe uma consciência tácita a respeito da centralidade da agenda ecológica. Não foram poucos os filósofos no século 20 que nos alertaram para o impacto negativo da redução da relação com a natureza a sua dimensão eminentemente técnica. Por mais que o desenvolvimento técnico pareça nos assegurar a dominação da natureza, o fato de compreender a relação humana com a natureza sob o signo da dominação já é um problema grave. Então, essa ideia de que, sim, vivemos em um país que tem necessidades de desenvolvimento maiores porque há urgências de inclusão social não invalida o fato de estarmos no interior de um processo de reflexão sobre o que significa riqueza social. Será que riqueza social significa ter um conjunto determinado de bens de consumo, ter transporte individual, ter uma relação extrativista da energia natural? Ou significa ser capaz de criar um modelo de relação com a natureza que garanta de maneira fundamental a qualidade de vida? Essa é uma bela questão que só o debate ecológico foi capaz de colocar.

Assim como em movimentos urbanos, a exemplo do Ocuppy, a pauta ecológica delineia um horizonte onde outro modelo de sociedade é possível, fazendo cada vez mais a crítica ao poder do sistema financeiro para bloqueá-lo?

A pauta ecológica atinge o modelo na sua esfera econômica mais clara ao afirmar que nós não queremos uma situação na qual todos os agentes econômicos estejam submetidos aos interesses de uma meia dúzia de multinacionais que detém não só a estrutura de produção, mas também o desenvolvimento da técnica. Quando se fala em agricultura familiar, o que isso quer dizer? Que, enquanto modelo econômico, não é possível estabelecer uma brutal concentração de terras, de tecnologia, de insumos. Insistir na agricultura familiar é, dentre outras coisas, insistir na pulverização radical da posse não só da terra, mas dos bens e das técnicas. Porque se isso não ocorrer, você tem não só consequências demográficas muito brutais, como o inchaço das periferias urbanas, mas também uma espécie de situação na qual a criatividade inerente à pulverização das técnicas é perdida. Milhares de produtores não vão produzir as mesmas coisas, nem sob as mesmas condições.

Por exemplo?

Por exemplo, quando essas questões ecológicas se vinculam ao problema da soberania alimentar. O fato de que você tem uma política agrícola que vai eliminando completamente a diversidade alimentar não é só uma questão de garantia das tradições – eu seria o último a fazer aqui a defesa abstrata da particularidade das tradições. Dentre outras coisas, é preciso reconhecer que a tradição tem uma dimensão de experiência que será muito importante para nós quando tivermos condições de compreender como os saberes alimentares se constituíram e o que eles garantem. Há uma tendência monopolista muito forte, nós vemos nas últimas décadas algo que está na base da tradição marxista, a ideia de que vai chegar um momento em que a própria noção de concorrência começa a desaparecer. Esse processo concentracionista toma a relação com a natureza de assalto, da maneira mais brutal possível. Todos esses movimentos camponeses, como a Via Campesina, insistem que há um risco não só econômico como social em se permitir a concentração das atividades agrícolas na mão de multinacionais. As sociedades pagarão caro se não conseguirem bloquear esse processo.

Pegando carona nesse exemplo da Via Campesina, cada vez mais surgem relatos de populações tradicionais emparedadas por esse modelo de desenvolvimento, mas, ainda sim, estes relatos bastante concretos e verificáveis são deslegitimados…

Tenta-se desqualificar essas resistências como uma espécie de arcaísmo. É como se dissessem “vocês precisam entender que têm uma visão absolutamente romântica do mundo”. É um discurso que condena “a crítica às luzes”, no final das contas. Diz muito a tentativa de retirar dessas lutas uma espécie de prova maior do conservadorismo de certas populações que no fundo são as populações mais vulneráveis, pois sabem que quando essas empresas chegam eles vão para o espaço simplesmente. Quando a Petrobrás chega para fazer a exploração de petróleo nas bacias, a vida dos pescadores é a última coisa na qual ela vai pensar. “Imagina você ficar preocupado com peixe quando o país quer se transformar em uma grande potência petrolífera?”. Ou seja, eles querem vender essa perspectiva, mas uma questão fundamental da esquerda é saber defender as alas mais vulneráveis da sociedade. Existe um modelo retórico que procura nos fazer acreditar que toda resistência seja, no fundo, uma recusa do progresso. Acho importante recolocar de maneira clara o que significa ‘progresso’ no interior desse contexto. O progresso procuraria dar conta de certas exigências fundamentais de bem-estar. O progresso científico não é simplesmente um processo de dominação da natureza, mas também um processo de otimização do bem-estar humano. Mas esse dito ‘progresso’ promete uma maior qualidade de vida para as populações e acaba produzindo o inverso. Para que essa inversão não ocorra, é necessária uma reconstituição brutal dos modelos de relação com a natureza. E, nesse processo, o interessante é que nasce outra consciência da organização social.

* Entrevista realizada por Maíra Mathias para a revista Poli n° 24, de julho e agosto de 2012

** Entrevista socializada pela Escola Politécnica de Saúde Joaquim Venâncio(EPSJV/Fiocruz), publicada pelo EcoDebate, 06/09/2012

[ O conteúdo do EcoDebate é “Copyleft”, podendo ser copiado, reproduzido e/ou distribuído, desde que seja dado crédito ao autor, ao Ecodebate e, se for o caso, à fonte primária da informação ]

Bits of Mystery DNA, Far From ‘Junk,’ Play Crucial Role (N.Y.Times)

By GINA KOLATA

Published: September 5, 2012

Among the many mysteries of human biology is why complex diseases like diabeteshigh blood pressure and psychiatric disorders are so difficult to predict and, often, to treat. An equally perplexing puzzle is why one individual gets a disease like cancer or depression, while an identical twin remains perfectly healthy.

Béatrice de Géa for The New York Times. “It is like opening a wiring closet and seeing a hairball of wires,” Mark Gerstein of Yale University said of the DNA intricacies.

Now scientists have discovered a vital clue to unraveling these riddles. The human genome is packed with at least four million gene switches that reside in bits of DNA that once were dismissed as “junk” but that turn out to play critical roles in controlling how cells, organs and other tissues behave. The discovery, considered a major medical and scientific breakthrough, has enormous implications for human health because many complex diseases appear to be caused by tiny changes in hundreds of gene switches.

The findings, which are the fruit of an immense federal project involving 440 scientists from 32 laboratories around the world, will have immediate applications for understanding how alterations in the non-gene parts of DNA contribute to human diseases, which may in turn lead to new drugs. They can also help explain how the environment can affect disease risk. In the case of identical twins, small changes in environmental exposure can slightly alter gene switches, with the result that one twin gets a disease and the other does not.

As scientists delved into the “junk” — parts of the DNA that are not actual genes containing instructions for proteins — they discovered a complex system that controls genes. At least 80 percent of this DNA is active and needed. The result of the work is an annotated road map of much of this DNA, noting what it is doing and how. It includes the system of switches that, acting like dimmer switches for lights, control which genes are used in a cell and when they are used, and determine, for instance, whether a cell becomes a liver cell or a neuron.

“It’s Google Maps,” said Eric Lander, president of the Broad Institute, a joint research endeavor of Harvard and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In contrast, the project’s predecessor, the Human Genome Project, which determined the entire sequence of human DNA, “was like getting a picture of Earth from space,” he said. “It doesn’t tell you where the roads are, it doesn’t tell you what traffic is like at what time of the day, it doesn’t tell you where the good restaurants are, or the hospitals or the cities or the rivers.”

The new result “is a stunning resource,” said Dr. Lander, who was not involved in the research that produced it but was a leader in the Human Genome Project. “My head explodes at the amount of data.”

The discoveries were published on Wednesday in six papers in the journal Nature and in 24 papers in Genome Research and Genome Biology. In addition, The Journal of Biological Chemistry is publishing six review articles, and Science is publishing yet another article.

Human DNA is “a lot more active than we expected, and there are a lot more things happening than we expected,” said Ewan Birney of the European Molecular Biology Laboratory-European Bioinformatics Institute, a lead researcher on the project.

In one of the Nature papers, researchers link the gene switches to a range of human diseases — multiple sclerosislupusrheumatoid arthritisCrohn’s diseaseceliac disease — and even to traits like height. In large studies over the past decade, scientists found that minor changes in human DNA sequences increase the risk that a person will get those diseases. But those changes were in the junk, now often referred to as the dark matter — they were not changes in genes — and their significance was not clear. The new analysis reveals that a great many of those changes alter gene switches and are highly significant.

“Most of the changes that affect disease don’t lie in the genes themselves; they lie in the switches,” said Michael Snyder, a Stanford University researcher for the project, called Encode, for Encyclopedia of DNA Elements.

And that, said Dr. Bradley Bernstein, an Encode researcher at Massachusetts General Hospital, “is a really big deal.” He added, “I don’t think anyone predicted that would be the case.”

The discoveries also can reveal which genetic changes are important in cancer, and why. As they began determining the DNA sequences of cancer cells, researchers realized that most of the thousands of DNA changes in cancer cells were not in genes; they were in the dark matter. The challenge is to figure out which of those changes are driving the cancer’s growth.

“These papers are very significant,” said Dr. Mark A. Rubin, a prostate cancer genomics researcher at Weill Cornell Medical College. Dr. Rubin, who was not part of the Encode project, added, “They will definitely have an impact on our medical research on cancer.”

In prostate cancer, for example, his group found mutations in important genes that are not readily attacked by drugs. But Encode, by showing which regions of the dark matter control those genes, gives another way to attack them: target those controlling switches.

Dr. Rubin, who also used the Google Maps analogy, explained: “Now you can follow the roads and see the traffic circulation. That’s exactly the same way we will use these data in cancer research.” Encode provides a road map with traffic patterns for alternate ways to go after cancer genes, he said.

Dr. Bernstein said, “This is a resource, like the human genome, that will drive science forward.”

The system, though, is stunningly complex, with many redundancies. Just the idea of so many switches was almost incomprehensible, Dr. Bernstein said.

There also is a sort of DNA wiring system that is almost inconceivably intricate.

“It is like opening a wiring closet and seeing a hairball of wires,” said Mark Gerstein, an Encode researcher from Yale. “We tried to unravel this hairball and make it interpretable.”

There is another sort of hairball as well: the complex three-dimensional structure of DNA. Human DNA is such a long strand — about 10 feet of DNA stuffed into a microscopic nucleus of a cell — that it fits only because it is tightly wound and coiled around itself. When they looked at the three-dimensional structure — the hairball — Encode researchers discovered that small segments of dark-matter DNA are often quite close to genes they control. In the past, when they analyzed only the uncoiled length of DNA, those controlling regions appeared to be far from the genes they affect.

The project began in 2003, as researchers began to appreciate how little they knew about human DNA. In recent years, some began to find switches in the 99 percent of human DNA that is not genes, but they could not fully characterize or explain what a vast majority of it was doing.

The thought before the start of the project, said Thomas Gingeras, an Encode researcher from Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, was that only 5 to 10 percent of the DNA in a human being was actually being used.

The big surprise was not only that almost all of the DNA is used but also that a large proportion of it is gene switches. Before Encode, said Dr. John Stamatoyannopoulos, a University of Washington scientist who was part of the project, “if you had said half of the genome and probably more has instructions for turning genes on and off, I don’t think people would have believed you.”

By the time the National Human Genome Research Institute, part of the National Institutes of Health, embarked on Encode, major advances in DNA sequencing and computational biology had made it conceivable to try to understand the dark matter of human DNA. Even so, the analysis was daunting — the researchers generated 15 trillion bytes of raw data. Analyzing the data required the equivalent of more than 300 years of computer time.

Just organizing the researchers and coordinating the work was a huge undertaking. Dr. Gerstein, one of the project’s leaders, has produced a diagram of the authors with their connections to one another. It looks nearly as complicated as the wiring diagram for the human DNA switches. Now that part of the work is done, and the hundreds of authors have written their papers.

“There is literally a flotilla of papers,” Dr. Gerstein said. But, he added, more work has yet to be done — there are still parts of the genome that have not been figured out.

That, though, is for the next stage of Encode.

*   *   *

Published: September 5, 2012

Rethinking ‘Junk’ DNA

A large group of scientists has found that so-called junk DNA, which makes up most of the human genome, does much more than previously thought.

GENES: Each human cell contains about 10 feet of DNA, coiled into a dense tangle. But only a very small percentage of DNA encodes genes, which control inherited traits like eye color, blood type and so on.

JUNK DNA: Stretches of DNA around and between genes seemed to do nothing, and were called junk DNA. But now researchers think that the junk DNA contains a large number of tiny genetic switches, controlling how genes function within the cell.

REGULATION: The many genetic regulators seem to be arranged in a complex and redundant hierarchy. Scientists are only beginning to map and understand this network, which regulates how cells, organs and tissues behave.

DISEASE: Errors or mutations in genetic switches can disrupt the network and lead to a range of diseases. The new findings will spur further research and may lead to new drugs and treatments.

 

Evolution could explain the placebo effect (New Scientist)

06 September 2012 by Colin Barras

Magazine issue 2881

ON THE face of it, the placebo effect makes no sense. Someone suffering from a low-level infection will recover just as nicely whether they take an active drug or a simple sugar pill. This suggests people are able to heal themselves unaided – so why wait for a sugar pill to prompt recovery?

New evidence from a computer model offers a possible evolutionary explanation, and suggests that the immune system has an on-off switch controlled by the mind.

It all starts with the observation that something similar to the placebo effect occurs in many animals, says Peter Trimmer, a biologist at the University of Bristol, UK. For instance, Siberian hamsters do little to fight an infection if the lights above their lab cage mimic the short days and long nights of winter. But changing the lighting pattern to give the impression of summer causes them to mount a full immune response.

Likewise, those people who think they are taking a drug but are really receiving a placebo can have a response which is twice that of those who receive no pills (Annals of Family Medicinedoi.org/cckm8b). In Siberian hamsters and people, intervention creates a mental cue that kick-starts the immune response.

There is a simple explanation, says Trimmer: the immune system is costly to run – so costly that a strong and sustained response could dangerously drain an animal’s energy reserves. In other words, as long as the infection is not lethal, it pays to wait for a sign that fighting it will not endanger the animal in other ways.

Nicholas Humphrey, a retired psychologist formerly at the London School of Economics, first proposed this idea a decade ago, but only now has evidence to support it emerged from a computer model designed by Trimmer and his colleagues.

According to Humphrey’s picture, the Siberian hamster subconsciously acts on a cue that it is summer because food supplies to sustain an immune response are plentiful at that time of year. We subconsciously respond to treatment – even a sham one – because it comes with assurances that it will weaken the infection, allowing our immune response to succeed rapidly without straining the body’s resources.

Trimmer’s simulation is built on this assumption – that animals need to spend vital resources on fighting low-level infections. The model revealed that, in challenging environments, animals lived longer and sired more offspring if they endured infections without mounting an immune response. In more favourable environments, it was best for animals to mount an immune response and return to health as quickly as possible (Evolution and Human Behavior, doi.org/h8p). The results show a clear evolutionary benefit to switching the immune system on and off depending on environmental conditions.

“I’m pleased to see that my theory stands up to computational modelling,” says Humphrey. If the idea is right, he adds, it means we have misunderstood the nature of placebos. Farming and other innovations in the past 10,000 years mean that many people have a stable food supply and can safely mount a full immune response at any time – but our subconscious switch has not yet adapted to this. A placebo tricks the mind into thinking it is an ideal time to switch on an immune response, says Humphrey.

Paul Enck at the University of Tübingen in Germany says it is an intriguing idea, but points out that there are many different placebo responses, depending on the disease. It is unlikely that a single mechanism explains them all, he says.

Ecosystems Cope With Stress More Effectively the Greater the Biodiversity (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Sep. 5, 2012) — Ecosystems with a high degree of biodiversity can cope with more stress, such as higher temperatures or increasing salt concentrations, than those with less biodiversity. They can also maintain their services for longer, as botanists and ecologists from the universities of Zurich and Göttingen have discovered. Their study provides the first evidence of the relationship between stress intensity and ecosystem functioning.

Higher average temperatures and increasing salt concentrations are stress factors that many ecosystems face today in the wake of climate change. However, do all ecosystems react to stress in the same way and what impact does stress have on ecosystem services, such as biomass production? Botanists and ecologists from the universities of Zurich and Göttingen demonstrate that a high level of biodiversity aids stress resistance.

Higher number of species leads to greater stress resistance

The scientists studied a total of 64 species of single-celled microalgae from the SAG Culture Collection of Algae in Göttingen. These are at the bottom of the food chain and absorb environmentally harmful COvia photosynthesis. “The more species of microalgae there are in a system, the more robust the system is under moderate stress compared to those with fewer species,” says first author Bastian Steudel, explaining one of the results. Systems with a higher number of species can thus keep their biomass production stable for longer than those with less biodiversity.

In all, the researchers studied six different intensities of two stress gradients. In the case of very high intensities, the positive effects of biodiversity decreased or ceased altogether. However, increasing stress in systems with few species had a considerably more negative impact than in those with high biodiversity levels. “The study shows that a high degree of biodiversity under stress is especially important to maintain biomass production,” says Steudel’s PhD supervisor Michael Kessler, summing up the significance of the research project.

Journal Reference:

  1. Bastian Steudel, Andy Hector, Thomas Friedl, Christian Löfke, Maike Lorenz, Moritz Wesche, Michael Kessler.Biodiversity effects on ecosystem functioning change along environmental stress gradientsEcology Letters, 2012; DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01863.x

Mulheres são mais vulneráveis aos impactos das mudanças climáticas globais (Fapesp)

Fatores socioeconômicos e culturais potencializam as vulnerabilidades do sexo feminino aos desastres provocados pelos eventos climáticos extremos, avalia pesquisadora mexicana que integra o IPCC (foto:Eduardo Cesar/FAPESP)

06/09/2012

Por Elton Alisson

Agência FAPESP – As mulheres e meninas representam atualmente 72% do total de pessoas que vivem em condições de extrema pobreza no mundo. Em função disso e da combinação de uma série de outros fatores socioeconômicos e culturais, elas representam hoje as maiores vítimas de desastres provocados por eventos climáticos extremos, como inundações e furacões.

Os dados foram apresentados pela médica e antropóloga mexicana Úrsula Oswald Spring durante o workshop “Gestão dos riscos dos extremos climáticos e desastres na América do Sul – O que podemos aprender com o Relatório Especial do IPCC sobre os extremos?”, realizado em agosto pela FAPESP, em São Paulo.

Professora da Universidade Nacional Autônoma do México, a pesquisadora mexicana, que é membro do IPCC, explica em entrevista concedida à Agência FAPESP as razões e quais ações são necessárias para diminuir a vulnerabilidade das mulheres e meninas aos impactos das mudanças climáticas.

Agência FAPESP – Quais são os grupos humanos mais vulneráveis aos impactos das mudanças climáticas globais?
Úrsula Oswald Spring – Primeiro, as mulheres e meninas. Em segundo lugar, os grupos indígenas refugiados em comunidades com línguas e culturas diferentes das suas. E em terceiro todas as pessoas que vivem em cidades em pobreza extrema, em zonas de alto risco e de violência, sem apoio governamental, ilegais, sem emprego e expostas às intempéries climáticas. Coincidentemente, esses três grupos humanos também são os mais discriminados. Há um problema de discriminação estrutural e uma combinação catastrófica de fatores socioeconômicos, ambientais e culturais que potencializam as vulnerabilidades desses três grupos humanos aos impactos das mudanças climáticas.

Agência FAPESP – O que torna as mulheres e meninas mais vulneráveis aos impactos das mudanças climáticas?
Úrsula Oswald Spring – Mundialmente, elas representam 72% dos pobres extremos e, sem recursos financeiros, é muito difícil enfrentar os impactos dos eventos climáticos extremos. Além disso, as mulheres foram educadas a cuidar dos outros e, por isso, assumimos o papel de “mãe de todos”. Esse processo, que chamo de teoria das representações sociais, também nos torna mais vulneráveis, porque temos o papel de proteger primeiramente os outros, para depois nos preocuparmos conosco. Por trás de tudo isso também persiste há milhares de anos um sistema político excludente, reforçado por todas as crenças religiosas, denominado sistema patriarcal, que preceitua a autoridade de um ser – o homem –, resultando em muita violência, exclusão e discriminação contra as mulheres. O capitalismo, por sua vez, se aproveitou do sistema patriarcal e construiu um sistema vertical, excludente, autoritário e violento, que permitiu que hoje 1,2 mil homens comandem a metade de todo o planeta e que as mulheres tivessem pouco poder de decisão e de veto em questões que lhes afetam diretamente.

Agência FAPESP – Diante desta realidade, o que é preciso fazer para diminuir a vulnerabilidade das mulheres e meninas aos impactos dos eventos climáticos extremos?
Úrsula Oswald Spring – Não vale a pena destruir, por exemplo, essa capacidade das mulheres em querer ser a mãe de todos. Mas é necessário treiná-las para que esse processo de cuidar dos outros seja mais eficiente e que não seja realizado ao custo de sua própria vida, mas que possa beneficiar todo um conjunto de pessoas, incluindo ela e suas filhas. E isto implica em mais condições para que possam ter maior poder de decisão.

Agência FAPESP – Como seria possível realizar esse processo?
Úrsula Oswald Spring – Sobretudo, possibilitando o maior acesso das mulheres à educação. De acordo com o Banco Mundial, todo país islâmico que investe na educação de suas mulheres aumenta imediatamente 1% de seu PIB. Outra ação é dar mais visibilidade ao trabalho das mulheres, que muitas vezes não é valorizado. Nos Estados Unidos o trabalho feminino representa 38% do PIB. É preciso dar visibilidade a essa participação econômica das mulheres. Alem disso, são necessárias leis que garantam maior equidade e participação das mulheres em todos os processos decisórios. Teríamos que usar sistemas de cotas para mulheres para reverter a discriminação, que seria um passo para garantir maior equidade. Desgraçadamente, as catástrofes e os desastres provocados pelos eventos climáticos extremos irão ajudar no processo de dar maior poder às mulheres.

Agência FAPESP – De que maneira?
Úrsula Oswald Spring – No México, por exemplo, a produção campesina está nas mãos dos homens. Mas está passando para as mãos das mulheres, porque os homens migraram para os Estados Unidos em busca de emprego. Na nova condição de chefes de família, elas estão tendo que tomar decisões sobre as mais variadas questões. Nós precisamos ajudá-las nesse processo de “empoderamento”, possibilitando que elas tenham acesso a tecnologias sustentáveis, que lhes permitam, por exemplo, se proteger dos riscos de desastres causados pelos eventos climáticos extremos.

Agência FAPESP – Além da questão do “empoderamento”, que é um processo que demanda longo prazo, que ações mais urgentes devem ser tomadas para preparar as mulheres para enfrentar os eventos climáticos extremos?
Úrsula Oswald Spring – É preciso possibilitar e treinar as mulheres para que em um momento de perigo iminente, por exemplo, elas tenham o direito de sair de casa. Muitas comunidades proíbem que uma mulher saia de casa se não está acompanhada por um homem. Isso é uma discriminação e uma forma de controle que é preciso superar com leis de equidade de gênero. Além disso, é preciso treinar mulheres para aprender a nadar, a correr, a trepar em uma árvore, e permitir que possam usar uma roupa mais adequada para realizar essas atividades. Eu assisti os Jogos Olímpicos de Londres e me chamou a atenção a vestimenta das atletas da natação e de corrida da Arábia Saudita. Apesar de estarem vestidas de forma diferente das atletas de outros países, ao menos elas vestiam uma calça que lhes permitia correr, sem infringir os códigos religiosos. Esse é um tipo de ação que poderíamos socializar. Poderíamos aproveitar os Jogos Olímpicos para promover em todos os países islâmicos esse tipo de ação, e dar cursos de natação e de corrida para as mulheres.

Agência FAPESP – Dentre os três grupos humanos que a senhora aponta como os mais vulneráveis aos impactos das mudanças climáticas, qual apresenta maior resiliência?
Úrsula Oswald Spring – Só os indígenas têm a capacidade adquirida ao longo de milhares de anos de administrar situações muito difíceis sem contar com ajuda internacional, nacional ou estatal, mas sim sozinhos. Eles se adaptaram às mudanças climáticas e cultivaram durante milhares de anos e da mesma maneira vegetais, como batatas, resistentes à seca, ao frio e ao calor, e desenvolveram sistemas muito eficientes e baratos de irrigação e fertilização da terra. É preciso aproveitar esses conhecimentos tradicionais e vinculá-los às tecnologias modernas para nos adaptarmos às mudanças climáticas. Mas estamos perdendo esses conhecimentos tradicionais porque a última geração de indígenas que ainda detêm esses conhecimentos, que são jovens, já passou pela escola, fala outras línguas que não a materna e está perdendo sua cultura indígena. Se não fizermos nada, vamos perder mundialmente esses conhecimentos tradicionais que permitiriam desenvolver soluções locais para enfrentar as mudanças climáticas.

Agência FAPESP – Que iniciativas existem hoje para promover essa aproximação de conhecimentos tradicionais com os científicos?
Úrsula Oswald Spring – No México, por exemplo, foi criada a Universidade Campesina do Sul. Lá são integrados grupos locais, que são constituídos hoje basicamente por mulheres – há 20 anos eram formados, em sua maioria, por homens –, e com base nas necessidades desses grupos nós disseminamos um processo de educação baseado no método de Paulo Freire, em que eles aprendem a partir de sua própria realidade.

Agência FAPESP – O que é ensinado na Universidade Campesina do Sul? 
Úrsula Oswald Spring – Um dos temas com os quais trabalhamos é agricultura orgânica, ensinando as mulheres a trabalhar com hortas familiares, para garantir seus próprios alimentos e de sua família. Outro tema é o manejo de água. Há muita água não potável, como a utilizada para lavar as mãos, por exemplo, que é muito fácil de tratar e que pode ser utilizada junto com dejetos orgânicos de sanitários secos como melhoradores de solo para ajudar a recuperar a fertilidade natural do solo. Outro tema ao qual temos nos dedicado é o da medicina alternativa. A medicina moderna é muito cara e a maior parte das pessoas não tem recursos para utilizar o sistema de saúde. Em função disso, estamos criando modos de integrar a medicina tradicional mexicana, que utiliza ervas e métodos tradicionais de cura, como vapores, com a medicina moderna. É um conjunto de ações voltadas para potencializar o uso dos conhecimentos científico e tradicional e tentar buscar soluções para enfrentar coletivamente problemas das mais variadas ordens, como o das mudanças climáticas. Porque não são grandes obras que protegem as pessoas de uma catástrofe provocada por um evento climático extremo, como uma inundação, mas sim pequenas obras, contanto que sejam muito eficientes.

Agência FAPESP – Na opinião da senhora, como será possível enfrentar os riscos das mudanças climáticas em escala mundial, em um momento em que diversos países passam por graves crises econômicas e têm problemas mais urgentes para resolver?
Úrsula Oswald Spring – Há condições de grande incerteza em relação às mudanças climáticas porque, além das crises econômicas, grande parte das pessoas no mundo nunca presenciou uma situação de desastre causado por um evento climático extremo. Mas se algumas pessoas ainda não passaram por uma situação dessas, é preciso justamente pensar em maneiras de se preparar para enfrentar os eventos climáticos extremos, que ocorrerão com maior frequência nos próximos anos. E uma das formas de se fazer isso é descentralizando a gestão dos riscos das mudanças climáticas, levando em contas as condições próprias de cada região. O problema climático na Amazônia, por exemplo, não é o mesmo que ocorre na parte alta dos Andes. Os tipos de manejos nessas regiões são muito diferentes. Por isso, os países precisam descentralizar as ações. A gestão dos riscos de mudanças climáticas pelos países irá depender de uma boa gestão local. Os primeiros 10 minutos de uma situação de risco, como uma inundação ou deslizamento, são cruciais e não há ajuda internacional que possa socorrer. Por isso, é preciso investir fortemente em prevenção e treinamento em nível local para enfrentar os riscos de um evento climático extremo.

Embrapa envia sementes de milho e arroz para o Banco de Svalbard, na Noruega (O Globo)

JC e-mail 4577, de 05 de Setembro de 2012.

Banco nórdico é o mais seguro do mundo, construído para resistir a catástrofes climáticas e a explosão nuclear.

A Embrapa envia esta semana 264 amostras representativas de sementes de milho e 541 de arroz para o Banco Global de Sementes de Svalbard, na Noruega, como parte do acordo assinado com o Real Ministério de Agricultura e Alimentação do país em 2008. Serão enviadas ao banco genético norueguês as coleções nucleares de arroz e milho, ou seja, um grupo limitado de acessos derivados de uma coleção vegetal, escolhido para representar a variabilidade genética da coleção inteira. Tradicionalmente, as coleções nucleares são estabelecidas com tamanho em torno de 10% dos acessos de toda a coleção original e incluem aproximadamente 70% no acervo genético.

A escolha dessas culturas atende a uma das recomendações do Banco de Svalbard quanto à relevância para a segurança alimentar e agricultura sustentável. Embora não sejam culturas originárias do Brasil, são cultivadas no país há séculos e têm características de rusticidade e adaptabilidade às condições nacionais. A próxima cultura agrícola a ser encaminhada para o banco norueguês será o feijão, o que deve acontecer até o fim de 2012.

O envio de amostras para Svalbard é mais uma garantia de segurança, já que o banco nórdico é o mais seguro do mundo, construído com total segurança para resistir a catástrofes climáticas e até a uma explosão nuclear. O banco tem capacidade para quatro milhões e quinhentas mil amostras de sementes. O conjunto arquitetônico conta com três câmaras de segurança máxima situadas ao final de um túnel de 125 metros dentro de uma montanha em uma pequena ilha do arquipélago de Svalbard situado no paralelo 780 N, próximo do Pólo Norte.

As sementes são armazenadas a 20ºC abaixo de zero em embalagens hermeticamente fechadas, guardadas em caixas armazenadas em prateleiras. O depósito está rodeado pelo clima glacial do Ártico, o que assegura as baixas temperaturas, mesmo se houver falha no suprimento de energia elétrica. As baixas temperatura e umidade garantem a baixa atividade metabólica, mantendo a viabilidade das sementes por um milênio ou mais.

First Holistic View of How Human Genome Actually Works: ENCODE Study Produces Massive Data Set (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Sep. 5, 2012) — The Human Genome Project produced an almost complete order of the 3 billion pairs of chemical letters in the DNA that embodies the human genetic code — but little about the way this blueprint works. Now, after a multi-year concerted effort by more than 440 researchers in 32 labs around the world, a more dynamic picture gives the first holistic view of how the human genome actually does its job.

William Noble, professor of genome sciences and computer science, in the data center at the William H. Foege Building. Noble, an expert on machine learning, and his team designed artificial intellience programs to analyze ENCODE data. These computer programs can learn from experience, recognize patterns, and organize information into categories understandable to scientists. The center houses systems for a wide variety of genetic research. The computer center has the capacity to store and analyze a tremendous amount of data, the equivalent of a 670-page autobiography of each person on earth, uncompressed.The computing resources analyze over 4 pentabytes of genomic data a year. (Credit: Clare McLean, Courtesy of University of Washington)

During the new study, researchers linked more than 80 percent of the human genome sequence to a specific biological function and mapped more than 4 million regulatory regions where proteins specifically interact with the DNA. These findings represent a significant advance in understanding the precise and complex controls over the expression of genetic information within a cell. The findings bring into much sharper focus the continually active genome in which proteins routinely turn genes on and off using sites that are sometimes at great distances from the genes themselves. They also identify where chemical modifications of DNA influence gene expression and where various functional forms of RNA, a form of nucleic acid related to DNA, help regulate the whole system.

“During the early debates about the Human Genome Project, researchers had predicted that only a few percent of the human genome sequence encoded proteins, the workhorses of the cell, and that the rest was junk. We now know that this conclusion was wrong,” said Eric D. Green, M.D., Ph.D., director of the National Human Genome Research Institute (NHGRI), a part of the National Institutes of Health. “ENCODE has revealed that most of the human genome is involved in the complex molecular choreography required for converting genetic information into living cells and organisms.”

NHGRI organized the research project producing these results; it is called the Encyclopedia oDNA Elements or ENCODE. Launched in 2003, ENCODE’s goal of identifying all of the genome’s functional elements seemed just as daunting as sequencing that first human genome. ENCODE was launched as a pilot project to develop the methods and strategies needed to produce results and did so by focusing on only 1 percent of the human genome. By 2007, NHGRI concluded that the technology had sufficiently evolved for a full-scale project, in which the institute invested approximately $123 million over five years. In addition, NHGRI devoted about $40 million to the ENCODE pilot project, plus approximately $125 million to ENCODE-related technology development and model organism research since 2003.

The scale of the effort has been remarkable. Hundreds of researchers across the United States, United Kingdom, Spain, Singapore and Japan performed more than 1,600 sets of experiments on 147 types of tissue with technologies standardized across the consortium. The experiments relied on innovative uses of next-generation DNA sequencing technologies, which had only become available around five years ago, due in large part to advances enabled by NHGRI’s DNA sequencing technology development program. In total, ENCODE generated more than 15 trillion bytes of raw data and consumed the equivalent of more than 300 years of computer time to analyze.

“We’ve come a long way,” said Ewan Birney, Ph.D., of the European Bioinformatics Institute, in the United Kingdom, and lead analysis coordinator for the ENCODE project. “By carefully piecing together a simply staggering variety of data, we’ve shown that the human genome is simply alive with switches, turning our genes on and off and controlling when and where proteins are produced. ENCODE has taken our knowledge of the genome to the next level, and all of that knowledge is being shared openly.”

The ENCODE Consortium placed the resulting data sets as soon as they were verified for accuracy, prior to publication, in several databases that can be freely accessed by anyone on the Internet. These data sets can be accessed through the ENCODE project portal (www.encodeproject.org) as well as at the University of California, Santa Cruz genome browser,http://genome.ucsc.edu/ENCODE/, the National Center for Biotechnology Information,http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/geo/info/ENCODE.html and the European Bioinformatics Institute,http://useast.ensembl.org/Homo_sapiens/encode.html?redirect=mirror;source=www.ensembl.org.

“The ENCODE catalog is like Google Maps for the human genome,” said Elise Feingold, Ph.D., an NHGRI program director who helped start the ENCODE Project. “Simply by selecting the magnification in Google Maps, you can see countries, states, cities, streets, even individual intersections, and by selecting different features, you can get directions, see street names and photos, and get information about traffic and even weather. The ENCODE maps allow researchers to inspect the chromosomes, genes, functional elements and individual nucleotides in the human genome in much the same way.”

The coordinated publication set includes one main integrative paper and five related papers in the journal Nature; 18 papers inGenome Research; and six papers in Genome Biology. The ENCODE data are so complex that the three journals have developed a pioneering way to present the information in an integrated form that they call threads.

“Because ENCODE has generated so much data, we, together with the ENCODE Consortium, have introduced a new way to enable researchers to navigate through the data,” said Magdalena Skipper, Ph.D., senior editor at Nature, which produced the freely available publishing platform on the Internet.

Since the same topics were addressed in different ways in different papers, the new website, www.nature.com/encode, will allow anyone to follow a topic through all of the papers in the ENCODE publication set by clicking on the relevant thread at the Nature ENCODE explorer page. For example, thread number one compiles figures, tables, and text relevant to genetic variation and disease from several papers and displays them all on one page. ENCODE scientists believe this will illuminate many biological themes emerging from the analyses.

In addition to the threaded papers, six review articles are being published in the Journal of Biological Chemistry and two related papers in Science and one in Cell.

The ENCODE data are rapidly becoming a fundamental resource for researchers to help understand human biology and disease. More than 100 papers using ENCODE data have been published by investigators who were not part of the ENCODE Project, but who have used the data in disease research. For example, many regions of the human genome that do not contain protein-coding genes have been associated with disease. Instead, the disease-linked genetic changes appear to occur in vast tracts of sequence between genes where ENCODE has identified many regulatory sites. Further study will be needed to understand how specific variants in these genomic areas contribute to disease.

“We were surprised that disease-linked genetic variants are not in protein-coding regions,” said Mike Pazin, Ph.D., an NHGRI program director working on ENCODE. “We expect to find that many genetic changes causing a disorder are within regulatory regions, or switches, that affect how much protein is produced or when the protein is produced, rather than affecting the structure of the protein itself. The medical condition will occur because the gene is aberrantly turned on or turned off or abnormal amounts of the protein are made. Far from being junk DNA, this regulatory DNA clearly makes important contributions to human health and disease.”

Identifying regulatory regions will also help researchers explain why different types of cells have different properties. For example why do muscle cells generate force while liver cells break down food? Scientists know that muscle cells turn on some genes that only work in muscle, but it has not been previously possible to examine the regulatory elements that control that process. ENCODE has laid a foundation for these kinds of studies by examining more than 140 of the hundreds of cell types found in the human body and identifying many of the cell type-specific control elements.

Despite the enormity of the dataset described in this historic collection of publications, it does not comprehensively describe all of the functional genomic elements in all of the different types of cells in the human body. NHGRI plans to invest in additional ENCODE-related research for at least another four years. During the next phase, ENCODE will increase the depth of the catalog with respect to the types of functional elements and cell types studied. It will also develop new tools for more sophisticated analyses of the data.

Journal References:

  1. Magdalena Skipper, Ritu Dhand, Philip Campbell.Presenting ENCODENature, 2012; 489 (7414): 45 DOI:10.1038/489045a
  2. Joseph R. Ecker, Wendy A. Bickmore, Inês Barroso, Jonathan K. Pritchard, Yoav Gilad, Eran Segal. Genomics: ENCODE explainedNature, 2012; 489 (7414): 52 DOI:10.1038/489052a
  3. The ENCODE Project Consortium. An integrated encyclopedia of DNA elements in the human genome.Nature, 2012; 489 (7414): 57 DOI: 10.1038/nature11247