Arquivo da tag: Mudanças climáticas

Os limites das negociações do clima (Valor Econômico)

JC e-mail 4979, de 27 de junho de 2014

Artigo de Jeffrey D. Sachs publicado no Valor Econômico

Para o mundo vencer a crise decorrente das mudanças climáticas, precisaremos de uma nova abordagem. Atualmente, as maiores potências encaram o assunto como uma oportunidade para negociações sobre quem reduzirá suas emissões de CO2 (principalmente decorrentes do uso de carvão, petróleo e gás). Cada país aceita fazer pequenas “contribuições” para a redução das emissões, tentando induzir os outros países a fazer mais. Os EUA, por exemplo, vão “admitir” um pouco de redução de CO2 se a China fizer o mesmo.

Durante duas décadas ficamos presos a essa mentalidade minimalista e incremental, errônea em dois aspectos fundamentais. Em primeiro lugar, ela não está funcionando: as emissões de CO2 estão crescendo – e não caindo. A indústria petrolífera mundial está deitando e rolando – fracking, perfuração, exploração no Ártico, gaseificando carvão e construindo novas usinas produtoras de gás natural liquefeito (GNL). O mundo está aniquilando os sistemas de climatização e de produção de alimentos a um ritmo alucinante.

Em segundo lugar, a “descarbonização” do sistema energético é tecnologicamente complicada. O verdadeiro problema para os EUA não é a competição chinesa, é a complexidade de migrar uma economia que gera US$ 17,5 trilhões dos combustíveis fósseis para alternativas de baixo carbono. O problema da China não são os EUA, mas como eliminar a dependência da segunda maior economia do mundo do consumo arraigado de carvão. Na verdade, trata-se de problemas de engenharia, não de negociações.

A questão é como descarbonizar mantendo-se economicamente vigorosos. Negociadores envolvidos com a questão climática não podem dar respostas a essa questão, mas inovadores como Elon Musk, da Tesla, e cientistas como Klaus Lackner, da Universidade Columbia, podem.

A descarbonização do sistema energético mundial exige impedir que nossa vasta e crescente produção de eletricidade intensifique as emissões atmosféricas de CO2. Isso pressupõe também trocarmos nossas frotas de transporte por outras que não produzam carbono.

Gerar eletricidade com produção nula de carbono é factível. Energia de fontes solar e eólica já são capazes de proporcionar isso, mas não necessariamente quando e onde necessário. Necessitamos progressos em armazenamento para essas fontes de energia limpa.

Energia nuclear, outra fonte não geradora de carbono, também terá de desempenhar um grande papel no futuro, o que implica melhorar a confiança pública em sua segurança. Até mesmo os combustíveis fósseis podem produzir eletricidade sem liberação de carbono, se forem empregadas tecnologias para captura e armazenamento de carbono (CAC). Klaus Lackner é um líder mundial em pesquisa de novas estratégias de CAC.

A eletrificação dos transportes já foi viabilizada, e a Tesla, com os sofisticados veículos elétricos, está capturando a imaginação e o interesse do público. Elon Musk, ansioso por estimular o rápido desenvolvimento dos veículos, fez história, na semana passada, liberando as patentes de Tesla para uso por competidores.

Novas técnicas para projeto de edificações reduziram substancialmente os custos com aquecimento e refrigeração, ao basearem-se muito mais em isolamento, ventilação natural e energia solar.

O mundo precisa de um esforço concertado para adotar a geração de eletricidade com baixas emanações de carbono, e não mais negociações do tipo “nós contra eles”. Todos os países necessitam novas tecnologias de baixo carbono, muitas das quais ainda estão fora do alcance comercial. Negociadores de acordos climáticos devem, portanto, concentrar-se em como cooperar para assegurar que inovações tecnológicas sejam criadas e beneficiem todos os países.

Os países precisam inspirar-se em outros casos em que governos, cientistas e indústria uniram-se para produzir grandes mudanças. Por exemplo, o Projeto Manhattan (para produzir a bomba atômica, durante a Segunda Guerra Mundial) e ao assumir como objetivo realizar o primeiro pouso na Lua, o governo americano estabeleceu uma meta notável, um calendário ousado e alocou os recursos financeiros para concretizar os objetivos. Nos dois casos, cientistas e engenheiros cumpriram seus prazos.

Na realidade, processos de “mudança tecnológica direcionada”, em que objetivos são definidos ousadamente, etapas são identificadas e cronogramas são postos em prática, são muito mais comuns. A revolução em TI que nos deu computadores, smartphones, GPS e muito mais, foi construída sobre uma série de roteiros definidos pela indústria e por governos.

O genoma humano foi mapeado mediante esse tipo esforço governamental – que em última instância incorporou o setor privado. Mais recentemente, governo e indústria cooperaram para reduzir os custos do sequenciamento de um genoma individual – de cerca de US$ 100 milhões em 2001, para apenas US$ 1 mil, hoje. Uma meta de enorme redução de custos foi definida, os cientistas começaram a trabalhar e o progresso alvo foi alcançado dentro do cronograma.

Mas deixemos de fingir que trata-se de um jogo de pôquer, em vez de um quebra-cabeça científico e tecnológico da mais alta ordem. Precisamos de gente como Elon Musk e Klaus Lackner, precisamos da General Electric, Siemens, Ericsson, Intel, Electricité de France, Huawei, Google, Baidu, Samsung, Apple e outros em laboratórios, usinas de eletricidade e em cidades ao redor do mundo para forjar os avanços tecnológicos que reduzirão as emissões mundiais de CO2.

Há um lugar à mesa até mesmo para companhias como ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Peabody, Koch Industries e outras gigantes no setor do petróleo e carvão. Se desejam que seus produtos sejam usados no futuro, é melhor torná-los seguros mediante a implantação de tecnologias avançadas de CCS. A questão crucial é que a meta de profunda descarbonização é um trabalho para todos os interessados, entre eles o setor de combustíveis fósseis – e trata-se uma missão em que todos nós precisamos ficar no lado da sobrevivência e do bem-estar humanos. (Tradução de Sergio Blum)

Jeffrey D. Sachs é professor de economia e diretor do Instituto Terra, da Columbia University. É também assessor especial do secretário-geral das Nações Unidas no tema das Metas de Desenvolvimento do Milênio. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2014.
http://www.project-syndicate.org

(Valor Econômico)
http://www.valor.com.br/opiniao/3595802/os-limites-das-negociacoes-do-clima#ixzz35qfSi4gm

For the next generation: Democracy ensures we don’t take it all with us (Science Daily)

Date: June 25, 2014

Source: Yale University

Summary: Given the chance to vote, people will leave behind a legacy of resources that ensures the survival of the next generation, a series of experiments by psychologists show. However, when people are left to their own devices, the next generation isn’t so lucky.

Given the chance to vote, people will leave behind a legacy of resources that ensures the survival of the next generation, a series of experiments by psychologists show. However, when people are left to their own devices, the next generation isn’t so lucky. Credit: © Sunny studio / Fotolia

Given the chance to vote, people will leave behind a legacy of resources that ensures the survival of the next generation, a series of experiments by Yale and Harvard psychologists show. However, when people are left to their own devices, the next generation isn’t so lucky.

“People want to do the right thing; they just need a little help from their institutions,” said David Rand, assistant professor of psychology at Yale and a co-author of the study appearing June 25 in the journalNature.

The experiments shed light on the psychology underlying issues such as Social Security funding or resource conservation, in which the interests of future generations are at stake.

The study builds upon “public goods” economics experiments that consistently show that people are willing to forego immediate reward if convinced the group as a whole will benefit. But Rand and Harvard colleagues Martin Nowak, Oliver Hauer, and Alexander Peysakhovich wanted to know if people would be willing to sacrifice resources if the benefit accrues not to individuals in a group, but to people not yet born.

In their experiments, they broke subjects into groups of five and gave them 100 units to spend. In one experiment, each individual could take out up to 20 units, but if the group as a whole used more than 50 units, all successor groups would get nothing. If a given group showed restraint, a line-up of successor groups — new generations each consisting of five new people — would be given the same choices.

The good news was that more than two out of three people were willing to take only 10 units — the sustainable “fair share” allotment — for their own use and preserve resources for the next generation. The bad news was that the minority of selfish individuals consistently destroyed the resource for future generations. Even one or two people in the group taking more than their “fair share” was enough to push the group over the 50 unit threshold, exhausting the resource. In 18 experiments in which individuals were free to extract more than 10 units, only four groups left enough resources to support a second generation, and by the fourth generation, all resources were exhausted.

The results changed dramatically when democratic principles were introduced. All five members of the group voted for a number of units to take. The median vote was then taken out for all group members. In this scenario, all groups passed on enough resources to sustain future generations. Even when researchers made the sacrifice more costly — reducing the “sustainable” level of units available to the group to 40 or even 30 — a majority of groups passed resources down through generations.

Problems arose in a third scenario when only three of five members voted on how many units to take. The results of the vote were not binding for the other two subjects. Here sustainability failed, because a selfish person not bound by the vote could over-consume and destroy the resource.

The latter results would be equivalent to Kyoto protocols, a non-binding attempt to get nations to reduce carbon emissions, the authors noted.

“You are wasting your time if voting results are not binding on everyone,” Rand said.

While voting may be potentially challenging for global-level international agreements, it is much more promising for local- or national-level sustainability policies, note the researchers. In a final analysis of real-world data, Rand and colleagues show that democratic countries of the world have made most advances toward sustainability, even when accounting for factors such as wealth, population size, economic output, and inequality.

Journal Reference:
  1. Oliver P. Hauser, David G. Rand, Alexander Peysakhovich, Martin A. Nowak.Cooperating with the futureNature, 2014; DOI: 10.1038/nature13530

Map reveals worldwide impacts of climate change (Science Daily)

Date: July 17, 2014

Source: University of Southampton

Summary: A new map, which shows the impact climate change could have on the whole planet by the end of the century if carbon emissions continue to increase, has been developed by scientists. Temperatures on the warmest days of the year are rising by 6°C or more across Europe, parts of Asia and part of North America, it shows. Also an increase in risk of flooding across 70 per cent of Asia, and the number of days of drought increasing in parts of South America, Australia and Southern Africa are illuminated by the new map.

Scientists from the University of Southampton have helped to create a new map, which shows the impact climate change could have on the whole planet by the end of the century, if carbon emissions continue to increase.

The Human Dynamics of Climate Change map, launched at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office was developed by the Met Office Hadley Centre with specific contributions from universities, Government and science organisations.

The map shows a range of potential impacts:

  • Temperatures on the warmest days of the year rising by 6°C or more across Europe, parts of Asia and part of North America
  • An increase in risk of flooding across 70 per cent of Asia
  • The number of days of drought going up by more than 20 per cent in parts of South America, Australia and Southern Africa
  • Maize yields falling by up to 12 per cent in Central America
  • Sea temperatures rising by up to 4°C in some parts of the world
  • Millions of people flooded due to sea level rise, particularly in East, Southeast and South Asia

The map illustrates how climate change could affect the global economy as regions connected by trade are affected by changes in crop yield, droughts, flooding and high temperatures. It also shows how many already water-stressed regions of the world could face an increase in the frequency and duration of droughts, at the same time as an increase in demand for water for agriculture and for the consumption of a growing population.

Professor Robert Nicholls and Dr Sally Brown, from Engineering and the Environment at the University of Southampton, contributed data and research which shows the number of people in coastal regions around the world that could potentially be flooded in the future as sea levels rise.

Dr Brown says: “We know that rising sea levels are already having profound impacts in many parts of the world. We hope that this tool will help scientists, policy makers and governments better understand the threat that climate change poses to our collective future prosperity and security and what actions are needed.”

Foreign Office Minister, Mark Simmonds said: “This map shows how the impacts of climate change on one part of the world will affect countries in other parts of the world, particularly through the global trade in food. This reinforces the point that climate change is a global problem: no country is immune, and we all need to work together to reduce the risks to our shared prosperity and security.”

Dame Julia Slingo, the Met Office Chief Scientist, said: “We’ve used the latest science to assess how potential changes in our climate will impact people around the world. This map presents that information together for the first time. While we see both positive and negative impacts, the risks vastly outweigh any potential opportunities.”

The map can be viewed at: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/human-dynamics

Telescópios investigam relação entre ciclo do Sol e clima (Fapesp)

Equipamentos serão sincronizados para monitorar a atividade solar de forma ininterrupta e registrar informações que podem ser associadas à variação climática (foto:divulgação)
17/07/2014

Por Diego Freire

Agência FAPESP – Pesquisadores da Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp) e da Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF) construíram dois telescópios que vão funcionar de forma sincronizada na detecção contínua de partículas derivadas da radiação do Sol para investigar possíveis relações entre os ciclos solares e as variações climáticas da Terra.

O trabalho é resultado da pesquisa “Detecção e estudo de eventos solares transientes e variação climática”, realizada no âmbito de um acordo de cooperação entre a FAPESP e a Fundação Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (Faperj) que tem como objetivo apoiar projetos cooperativos e intercâmbio de pesquisadores e estudantes em áreas ligadas às mudanças climáticas globais.

De acordo com o coordenador da pesquisa na Unicamp, Anderson Campos Fauth, professor associado do Instituto de Física Gleb Wataghin, já se sabe que os ciclos solares e suas flutuações apresentam alguma relação com a intensidade com que os raios cósmicos atingem a Terra, apesar de não serem considerados uma das principais causas das mudanças climáticas globais.

“Não existe um consenso sobre o mecanismo que relaciona a atividade solar e as mudanças climáticas. Há uma hipótese de que o aumento do fluxo de raios cósmicos pode estar associado ao surgimento de nuvens baixas, que globalmente exercem um efeito de resfriamento e, nas regiões polares, onde a incidência da radiação solar é baixa, têm impacto contrário, provocando aquecimento”, disse.

Fauth explica que cientistas têm observado que certos fenômenos climáticos – oceanos mais quentes, maior quantidade de chuvas tropicais, menos nuvens subtropicais, circulação mais intensa de ventos – parecem estar em parte associados ao ciclo de atividade solar, que dura em média 11 anos.

“Entretanto, esses estudos estão em fase inicial e é necessário fazer novas observações das radiações emitidas pelo Sol, principalmente quando surgem atividades como as explosões solares, e monitorar suas variações sazonais”, ponderou.

Diante disso, o trabalho da Unicamp e da UFF com os telescópios foca em um dos sinais do ciclo solar: a presença e o comportamento das partículas múons na atmosfera terrestre.

O múon é a mais abundante partícula com carga elétrica presente na superfície da Terra, representando cerca de 80% dos raios cósmicos com carga elétrica em altitudes próximas ao nível do mar. A cada segundo surgem, aproximadamente, 140 múons por metro quadrado.

O fato de a partícula quase sempre possuir trajetória retilínea facilita sua detecção com um arranjo de poucos detectores. “Essas partículas permitem estudar os eventos solares em uma região de energia que os satélites e os monitores de nêutrons posicionados na superfície terrestre não observam”, explicou Fauth.

O ano de 2014 é propício à detecção de múons pelos telescópios da Unicamp e da UFF. Ao longo deste período, o ciclo atual do Sol atinge sua máxima atividade: o número de manchas solares observadas aumenta consideravelmente e os flares – explosões que ocorrem na superfície do Sol – irrompem com grande intensidade, libertando milhões de toneladas de gás magnetizado.

Além disso, Campinas e Niterói, onde os telescópios estão instalados, têm localização privilegiada para a detecção de partículas derivadas da radiação solar, pois estão próximas à região central da Anomalia Magnética do Atlântico Sul (SAA, da sigla em inglês), onde a resistência magnética para entrada de partículas carregadas vindas do espaço é muito baixa.

A maioria dos detectores de partículas solares energéticas está instalada próximo às regiões dos polos porque, nas outras regiões, o campo magnético da Terra desvia as partículas carregadas. Mas na região da SAA há uma intensidade magnética muito inferior, uma espécie de buraco na magnetosfera que se comporta como um funil.

Muonca

O telescópio construído na Unicamp, que recebeu o nome Muonca, iniciou em abril a tomada de dados contínua, utilizando quatro detectores de partículas. Os detectores da UFF entraram em funcionamento em junho, no modo monitor – quando se realiza a contagem dos múons, sem determinar ainda sua direção de chegada.

O Muonca utiliza quatro detectores de partículas idênticos. A partícula múon, ao atravessar o cintilador do detector, produz uma luz que permite o registro de sua passagem. Um computador é utilizado no sistema de aquisição de dados, e as informações brutas são registradas em arquivos diários.

O telescópio da Unicamp foi construído em dois anos, incluindo o tempo para os processos de importação, realização dos projetos, desenhos técnicos das peças, execução por técnicos da universidade e de empresas privadas, montagem por membros do grupo de pesquisa, desenvolvimento do software de aquisição de dados e calibração dos detectores, além da programação dos códigos de análise dos dados.

O experimento opera continuamente, 24 horas por dia, e os pesquisadores desenvolvem agora um sistema que alerte por e-mail e SMS quando ocorrer algum problema ou possível evento solar na aquisição dos dados.

Recentemente, os detectores instalados em Campinas e Niterói registraram simultaneamente uma tempestade geomagnética. De acordo com Fauth, os dados estão sendo avaliados para publicação e os primeiros resultados conjuntos dos dois telescópios serão apresentados em setembro no 34º Encontro Nacional de Física de Partículas e Campos, organizado pela Sociedade Brasileira de Física em Caxambu (MG).

O manguezal avança (Fapesp)

01.07.2014

O manguezal da Reserva Biológica de Guaratiba, no Rio de Janeiro, parece estar em migração continente adentro. O movimento é uma resposta à elevação no nível do mar, que pesquisadores do Núcleo de Estudos do Manguezal (Nema), da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (Uerj), atribuem a mudanças globais no clima.

O oceanógrafo Gustavo Duque Estrada, do Nema, foi a campo com a equipe de vídeo de Pesquisa FAPESP para mostrar como o grupo vem monitorando essa floresta costeira desde os anos 1990. Na universidade, o coordenador do grupo, Mário Soares, explica o significado dos resultados de pesquisa para entender os manguezais, suas respostas às mudanças ambientais e sua influência sobre o ambiente, incluindo por meio da capacidade de armazenar carbono. “Áreas que antes eram planícies hipersalinas, lá no início da década de 1990, hoje já são florestas de mangue”, conta.

Precipitation, not warming temperatures, may be key in bird adaptation to climate change (Science Daily)

Date: July 11, 2014

Source: Oregon State University

Summary: A new model analyzing how birds in western North America will respond to climate change suggests that for most species, regional warming is not as likely to influence population trends as will precipitation changes. “In general, our study suggests that if climate change results in winters with less precipitation, we likely will see a spring drying effect,” one researcher said. “This means that populations of drought-tolerant species will expand and birds that rely heavily on moisture should decline.”

Rufous hummingbird. Credit: Image courtesy of Oregon State University

A new model analyzing how birds in western North America will respond to climate change suggests that for most species, regional warming is not as likely to influence population trends as will precipitation changes.

Several past studies have found that temperature increases can push some animal species — including birds — into higher latitudes or higher elevations. Few studies, however, have tackled the role that changes in precipitation may cause, according to Matthew Betts, an Oregon State University ecologist and a principal investigator on the study.

“When we think of climate change, we automatically think warmer temperatures,” said Betts, an associate professor in Oregon State’s College of Forestry. “But our analysis found that for many species, it is precipitation that most affects the long-term survival of many bird species.

“It makes sense when you think about it,” Betts added. “Changes in precipitation can affect plant growth, soil moisture, water storage and insect abundance and distributions.”

Results of the study, which was funded by the National Science Foundation with support from the U.S. Geological Survey and others, are being published in the journalGlobal Change Biology.

The researchers examined long-term data on bird distributions and abundance covering five states in the western United States, and in the Canadian province of British Columbia, testing statistical models to predict temporal changes in population of 132 bird species over a 32-year period. They analyzed the impacts of temperature and precipitation on bird distributions at the beginning of the study period (the 1970s) and then tested how well the predictions performed against actual population trends over the ensuing 30 years.

The scientists keyed in on several variables, including possible changes during the wettest month in each region, the breeding season of different species, and the driest month by area. Their model found that models including precipitation were most successful at predicting bird population trends.

“For some species, the model can predict about 80 percent of variation,” Betts said, “and for some species, it’s just a flip of the coin. But the strongest message is that precipitation is an important factor and we should pay more attention to the implications of this moving forward.”

The study incorporated a lot of complex variables into the model, including micro-climatic changes that are present in mountainous environments. The research area encompassed California to northern British Columbia and the mountain systems drive much of the changes in both temperature and precipitation.

The researchers chose December precipitation as one variable and found it to be influential in affecting bird populations.

“Someone might ask why December, since half of the bird species usually present in the Pacific Northwest, for instance, might not even be here since they’re migratory,” Betts noted. “But much of the critical precipitation is snow that falls in the winter and has a carryover effect for months later — and the runoff is what affects stream flows, plant growth and insect abundance well down the road.”

The rufous hummingbird is one species that appeared affected by changes in December precipitation, the researchers say. The species is declining across western North America at a rate of about 3 percent a year, and the model suggest it is linked to an overall drying trend in the Northwest. The evening grosbeak is similarly affected the authors say.

On the other hand, the California towhee shows a negative association with December precipitation, appears to be drought-tolerant — and its populations remain stable.

“We cannot say for certain that a change in December precipitation caused declines in evening grosbeaks or rufous hummingbirds,” said Javier Gutiérrez Illán, a former postdoctoral researcher at Oregon State and lead author on the study. “Our model shows, however, a strong association between the birds’ decline and precipitation changes and the fact that this variable pointed to actual past changes in populations gives it validity.”

“The study shows that models can predict the direction and magnitude of population changes,” he added. “This is of fundamental importance considering predictions were successful even in new locations.”

The next phase of the research is to use the model to determine if there are patterns in the sorts of species affected — for instance, birds that are migratory or non-migratory, or short- or long-lived. They also hope to test additional variables, including land use changes, wildfire impacts, competition between species and other factors.

“In general, our study suggests that if climate change results in winters with less precipitation, we likely will see a spring drying effect,” Betts said. “This means that populations of drought-tolerant species will expand and birds that rely heavily on moisture should decline.”

Journal Reference:
  1. Javier Gutiérrez Illán, Chris D. Thomas, Julia A. Jones, Weng-Keen Wong, Susan M. Shirley, Matthew G. Betts. Precipitation and winter temperature predict long-term range-scale abundance changes in Western North American birds.Global Change Biology, 2014; DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12642

Miami, the great world city, is drowning while the powers that be look away (The Observer)

Low-lying south Florida, at the front line of climate change in the US, will be swallowed as sea levels rise. Astonishingly, the population is growing, house prices are rising and building goes on. The problem is the city is run by climate change deniers

, science editor, in Miami

The Observer, Friday 11 July 2014 08.59 BST

Miami coastline

The Miami coastline: there are fears that even a 30cm rise in the sea level could be catastrophic. Photograph: Joe Raedle/Getty

A drive through the sticky Florida heat into Alton Road in Miami Beach can be an unexpectedly awkward business. Most of the boulevard, which runs north through the heart of the resort’s most opulent palm-fringed real estate, has been reduced to a single lane that is hemmed in by bollards, road-closed signs, diggers, trucks, workmen, stacks of giant concrete cylinders and mounds of grey, foul-smelling earth.

It is an unedifying experience but an illuminating one – for this once glamorous thoroughfare, a few blocks from Miami Beach’s art deco waterfront and its white beaches, has taken on an unexpected role. It now lies on the front line of America’s battle against climate change and the rise in sea levels that it has triggered.

“Climate change is no longer viewed as a future threat round here,” says atmosphere expert Professor Ben Kirtman, of the University of Miami. “It is something that we are having to deal with today.”

Every year, with the coming of high spring and autumn tides, the sea surges up the Florida coast and hits the west side of Miami Beach, which lies on a long, thin island that runs north and south across the water from the city of Miami. The problem is particularly severe in autumn when winds often reach hurricane levels. Tidal surges are turned into walls of seawater that batter Miami Beach’s west coast and sweep into the resort’s storm drains, reversing the flow of water that normally comes down from the streets above. Instead seawater floods up into the gutters of Alton Road, the first main thoroughfare on the western side of Miami Beach, and pours into the street. Then the water surges across the rest of the island.

The effect is calamitous. Shops and houses are inundated; city life is paralysed; cars are ruined by the corrosive seawater that immerses them. During one recent high spring tide, laundromat owner Eliseo Toussaint watched as slimy green saltwater bubbled up from the gutters. It rapidly filled the street and then blocked his front door. “This never used to happen,” Toussaint told reporters. “I’ve owned this place eight years and now it’s all the time.”

Today, shop owners keep plastic bags and rubber bands handy to wrap around their feet when they have to get to their cars through rising waters, while householders have found that ground-floor spaces in garages are no longer safe to keep their cars. Only those on higher floors can hope to protect their cars from surging sea waters that corrode and rot the innards of their vehicles.

Hence the construction work at Alton Road, where $400m is now being spent in an attempt to halt these devastating floods – by improving Miami Beach’s stricken system of drains and sewers. In total, around $1.5bn is to be invested in projects aimed at holding back the rising waters. Few scientists believe the works will have a long-term effect.

lowlying houses miami

Low-lying houses in Miami Beach are especially vulnerable. Photograph: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

“There has been a rise of about 10 inches in sea levels since the 19th century – brought about by humanity’s heating of the planet through its industrial practices – and that is now bringing chaos to Miami Beach by regularly flooding places like Alton Road,” says Harold Wanless, a geology professor at the University of Miami. “And it is going to get worse. By the end of this century we could easily have a rise of six feet, possibly 10 feet. Nothing much will survive that. Most of the land here is less than 10 feet above sea level.”

What makes Miami exceptionally vulnerable to climate change is its unique geology. The city – and its satellite towns and resorts – is built on a dome of porous limestone which is soaking up the rising seawater, slowly filling up the city’s foundations and then bubbling up through drains and pipes. Sewage is being forced upwards and fresh water polluted. Miami’s low topography only adds to these problems. There is little land out here that rises more than six feet above sea level. Many condos and apartment blocks open straight on the edge of the sea. Of the total of 4.2 million US citizens who live at an elevation of four feet or less, 2.4 million of them live in south Florida.

At Florida International University, geologist Peter Harlem has created a series of maps that chart what will happen as the sea continues to rise. These show that by the time oceans have risen by four feet – a fairly conservative forecast – most of Miami Beach, Key Biscayne, Virginia Key and all the area’s other pieces of prime real estate, will be bathtubs. At six feet, Miami city’s waterfront and the Florida Keys will have disappeared. The world’s busiest cruise ship port, which handles four million passengers, will disappear beneath the waves. “This is the fact of life about the ocean: it is very, very powerful,” says Harlem.

Miami and its surroundings are facing a calamity worthy of the Old Testament. It is an astonishing story. Despite its vast wealth, the city might soon be consumed by the waves, for even if all emissions of carbon dioxide were halted tomorrow – a very unlikely event given their consistent rise over the decades – there is probably enough of the gas in the atmosphere to continue to warm our planet, heat and expand our seas, and melt polar ice. In short, there seems there is nothing that can stop the waters washing over Miami completely.

It a devastating scenario. But what really surprises visitors and observers is the city’s response, or to be more accurate, its almost total lack of reaction. The local population is steadily increasing; land prices continue to surge; and building is progressing at a generous pace. During my visit last month, signs of construction – new shopping malls, cranes towering over new condominiums and scaffolding enclosing freshly built apartment blocks – could be seen across the city, its backers apparently oblivious of scientists’ warnings that the foundations of their buildings may be awash very soon.

Activists Demonstrate Against Sen. Rubio's Miami Office

Protesters gather near the office of Senator Marco Rubio to ask him to take action to address climate change. Photograph: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Not that they are alone. Most of Florida’s senior politicians – in particular, Senator Marco Rubio, former governor Jeb Bush and current governor Rick Scott, all Republican climate-change deniers – have refused to act or respond to warnings of people like Wanless or Harlem or to give media interviews to explain their stance, though Rubio, a Republican party star and a possible 2016 presidential contender, has made his views clear in speeches. “I do not believe that human activity is causing these dramatic changes to our climate the way these scientists are portraying it. I do not believe that the laws that they propose we pass will do anything about it, except it will destroy our economy,” he said recently. Miami is in denial in every sense, it would seem. Or as Wanless puts it: “People are simply sticking their heads in the sand. It is mind-boggling.”

Not surprisingly, Rubio’s insistence that his state is no danger from climate change has brought him into conflict with local people. Philip Stoddard, the mayor of South Miami, has a particularly succinct view of the man and his stance. “Rubio is an idiot,” says Stoddard. “He says he is not a scientist so he doesn’t have a view about climate change and sea-level rise and so won’t do anything about it. Yet Florida’s other senator, Democrat Bill Nelson, is holding field hearings where scientists can tell people what the data means. Unfortunately, not enough people follow his example. And all the time, the waters are rising.”

Philip Stoddard is particularly well-placed to judge what is happening to Miami. Tall, thin, with a dry sense of humour, he is a politician, having won two successive elections to be mayor of South Miami, and a scientist, a biology professor at Florida International University. The backyard of the home that he shares with his architect wife, Grey Reid, reflects his passion for the living world. While most other South Miami residences sport bright blue swimming pools and barbecues, Stoddard has created a small lake, fringed with palms and ferns, that would do justice to the swampy Everglades near his home. Bass, koi and mosquito fish swim here, while bright dragonflies and zebra lapwing butterflies flit overhead. It is a naturalists’ haven but Stoddard is under no illusions about the risks facing his home. Although several miles inland, the house is certainly not immune to the changes that threaten to engulf south Florida.

“The thing about Miami is that when it goes, it will all be gone,” says Stoddard. “I used to work at Cornell University and every morning, when I went to work, I climbed more elevation than exists in the entire state of Florida. Our living-room floor here in south Miami is at an elevation of 10 feet above sea level at present. There are significant parts of south Florida that are less than six feet above sea level and which are now under serious threat of inundation.”

Nor will south Florida have to wait that long for the devastation to come. Long before the seas have risen a further three or four feet, there will be irreversible breakdowns in society, he says. “Another foot of sea-level rise will be enough to bring salt water into our fresh water supplies and our sewage system. Those services will be lost when that happens,” says Stoddard.

“You won’t be able to flush away your sewage and taps will no longer provide homes with fresh water. Then you will find you will no longer be able to get flood insurance for your home. Land and property values will plummet and people will start to leave. Places like South Miami will no longer be able to raise enough taxes to run our neighbourhoods. Where will we find the money to fund police to protect us or fire services to tackle house fires? Will there even be enough water pressure for their fire hoses? It takes us into all sorts of post-apocalyptic scenarios. And that is only with a one-foot sea-level rise. It makes one thing clear though: mayhem is coming.”

Miami flooding

In November 2013, a full moon and high tides led to flooding in parts of the city, including here at Alton Road and 10th Street. Photograph: Corbis

And then there is the issue of Turkey Point nuclear plant, which lies 24 miles south of Miami. Its operators insist it can survive sea surges and hurricanes and point out that its reactor vessel has been built 20 feet above sea level. But critics who include Stoddard, Harlem and others argue that anciliary equipment – including emergency diesel generators that are crucial to keeping cooling waters circulating in the event of power failure – are not so well protected. In the event of sea rise and a major storm surge, a power supply disruption could cause a repeat of the Fukushima accident of 2011, they claim. In addition, inundation maps like those prepared by Harlem show that with a three-foot sea-level rise, Turkey Point will be cut off from the mainland and will become accessible only by boat or aircraft. And the higher the seas go, the deeper it will be submerged.

Turkey Point was built in the 1970s when sea level rises were not an issue, of course. But for scientists like Ben Kirtman, they are now a fact of life. The problem is that many planners and managers still do not take the threat into account when planning for the future, he argues. A classic example is provided by the state’s water management. South Florida, because it is so low-lying, is criss-crossed with canals that take away water when there is heavy rainfall and let it pour into the sea.

“But if you have sea level rises of much more than a foot in the near future, when you raise the canal gates to let the rain water out, you will find sea water rushing in instead,” Kirtman said. “The answer is to install massive pumps as they have done in New Orleans. Admittedly, these are expensive. They each cost millions of dollars. But we are going to need them and if we don’t act now we are going to get caught out. The trouble is that no one is thinking about climate change or sea-level rises at a senior management level.”

The problem stems from the top, Kirtman said, from the absolute insistence of influential climate change deniers that global warming is not happening. “When statesmen like Rubio say things like that, they make it very, very hard for anything to get done on a local level – for instance for Miami to raise the millions it needs to build new sewers and canals. If local people have been told by their leaders that global warming is not happening, they will simply assume you are wasting their money by building defences against it.

“But global warming is occurring. That is absolutely unequivocal. Since the 1950s, the climate system has warmed. That is an absolute fact. And we are now 95% sure that that warming is due to human activities. If I was 95% sure that my house was on fire, would I get out? Obviously I would. It is straightforward.”

This point is backed by Harold Wanless. “Every day we continue to pump uncontrolled amounts of greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, we strengthen the monster that is going to consume us. We are heating up the atmosphere and then we are heating up the oceans so that they expand and rise. There doesn’t look as if anything is going to stop that. People are starting to plan in Miami but really they just don’t see where it is all going.”

Thus one of the great cities of the world faces obliteration in the coming decades. “It is over for south Florida. It is as simple as that. Nor is it on its own,” Wanless admits.

“The next two or three feet of sea-level rise that we get will do away with just about every barrier island we have across the planet. Then, when rises get to four-to-six feet, all the world’s great river deltas will disappear and with them the great stretches of agricultural land that surrounds them. People still have their heads in the sand about this but it is coming. Miami is just the start. It is worth watching just for that reason alone. It is a major US city and it is going to let itself drown.”

Other areas at risk

London

With eight power stations, 35 tube stations and all of Whitehall in the tidal Thames floodplain, the threat of floods has long loomed large, posing a risk to the economy, infrastructure and national heritage. With sea level rises and increased rainfall on the cards thanks to climate change, measures are being put in place to revamp and boost the ageing flood defences. Meanwhile, the south-east of England is sinking by around 1.5mm a year.

Amsterdam/Netherlands

The Dutch are often looked to as the masters of flood defence engineering with their impressive array of dams, dikes and barriers. It’s a skill they have had to acquire as almost half the population lives less than 3ft above sea level and many livelihoods depend on the country’s strong flood defences. They have adopted a “live with water, rather than fight it” attitude in recent years, with innovations including “floating homes” being built in Amsterdam.

New Orleans

Bearing in mind that roughly half of New Orleans is below sea level, its future in terms of coastal flooding does not look too bright. Indeed, according to the World Bank it is the fourth-most vulnerable city to future sea level rise in economic costs, with predicted average annual losses of $1.8bn in 2050. It is predicted that rising waters and subsiding land could result in relative sea level rises of up to 4.6ft by 2100, one of the highest rates in the US.

Maldives

The Maldives is generally thought of as an island paradise but is critically endangered by the rising ocean that both supports and surrounds it. Of its 1,192 islands, 80% are less than 3ft above sea level, with global warming putting the Maldives at risk of becoming the Atlantis of our time. So perhaps it is unsurprising that the Maldivian president is looking at the options of buying land should the country’s 200 densely inhabited islands need to be evacuated.There’s even a pot of money especially allocated for buying land overseas and moving the islands’s residents to safer ground.

Bangladesh

Bangladesh is a nation in which three majestic Himalayan rivers converge, before meandering their way to the sea via the Ganges delta: beautiful on a map, but not ideal in terms of river flooding, or tidal flooding for that matter. The country is basically a massive floodplain, with more than 20% of its land awash with water every year and around 70% experiencing severe flooding in extreme cases. As one of the world’s least developed countries, it cannot afford the technology others use to mitigate the effects of flooding and has to turn to more imaginative means, such as creating houses built on stilts in coastal areas.

Abigail Hayward

Mudança climática ameaça estabilidade econômica de cidades (CarbonoBrasil)

11/7/2014 – 11h48

por Jéssica Lipinski, do CarbonoBrasil

bhcdp Mudança climática ameaça estabilidade econômica de cidades

Novo relatório mostra que 76% dos 207 municípios analisados creem que as alterações ambientais trazem riscos físicos a seus habitantes e empresas; documento identificou 757 atividades de adaptação e mitigação nas cidades avaliadas

Uma nova pesquisa do Carbon Diclosure Project (CDP), organização sem fins lucrativos que ajuda cidades e empresas e medirem, divulgarem, gerirem e compartilharem informações ambientais, revelou que os governos locais das principais cidades do mundo estão avançando com as ações para combater as mudanças climáticas, já que acreditam que o fenômeno coloca em perigo a estabilidade de suas economias.

O relatório, intitulado Protecting our Capital (Protegendo nosso Capital ou Protegendo nossa Capital),aponta que 76% dos 207 municípios analisados acreditam que os efeitos das mudanças climáticas possam trazer algum tipo de risco físico a seus habitantes e companhias.

Entre as cidades avaliadas pelo estudo estão Caracas (Venezuela), Hong Kong, Johanesburgo (África do Sul), Londres (Inglaterra), Nova Iorque (Estados Unidos), São Paulo, Tóquio (Japão), Wellington (Nova Zelândia) e Sidney (Austrália).

Alguns dos principais riscos identificados pelas cidades são: danos materiais e a bens de capital; destruição de meios de transporte e infraestrutura; e problemas relacionados ao bem-estar dos cidadãos.

“Os governos locais estão agindo à frente para protegerem seus cidadãos e empresas dos impactos das mudanças climáticas, porém é preciso mais colaboração com as empresas para aumentar a resiliência urbana. Através do fornecimento de informação, políticas e incentivos, as cidades podem ajudar a equipar as empresas para gerirem esses riscos e abraçarem as oportunidades”, observou Larissa Bulla, diretora do programa de cidades do CDP.

Na verdade, segundo o documento, os municípios estão muito alinhados com as companhias quando o assunto é identificação de riscos. Eles reconhecem 69% dos riscos físicos das mudanças climáticas que as empresas identificam nessas cidades, e estão procurando resolver cerca de 66% dos identificados pelas corporações.

Por exemplo, a cidade de Caracas relata: “a água potável e a geração de eletricidade podem ser interrompidas por causa das mudanças climáticas. Esses fatores podem afetar o setor privado. As enchentes podem interromper as operações e as companhias de seguros podem enfrentar reivindicações mais elevadas”.

Tal situação também ocorre no município de Pittsburgh, nos EUA, em que alguns proprietários de empresas estão abandonando seus investimentos porque não são mais capazes de buscar compensação pelas perdas ocorridas como resultado das mudanças climáticas. Tanto é que a indústria local de seguros recentemente apresentou ações contra as cidades devido ao fato de que elas não estavam buscando se adaptar às consequências das mudanças climáticas.

Felizmente, a situação crítica parece estar levando a mais ação por parte dos municípios e também das empresas. No total, o CDP identificou 757 atividades de adaptação aos efeitos das mudanças climáticas nas cidades avaliadas, como o reporte e redução de emissões de gases do efeito estufa (GEEs). O documento também aponta que 102 dos 207 municípios já têm planos de adaptação em vigor.

É o caso de Hong Kong, cuja fornecedora de energia CLP Holdings sofreu danos locais e interrupção das atividades como resultado do aumento do nível do mar. A empresa gastou US$ 193 mil elevando os níveis dos pisos de suas edificações, e investiu mais US$ 516 mil para aumentar a capacidade de drenagem.

Enquanto isso, o Departamento de Serviços de Drenagem de Hong Kong direcionou US$ 2,7 bilhões para infraestrutura contra enchentes, incluindo o alargamento de rios e o armazenamento subterrâneo de água.

Em Londres, para combater o aumento das temperaturas, a assessoria financeira Morgan Stanley gastou US$ 4,4 milhões aprimorando o sistema de condicionadores de ar em seu centro de dados. Além disso, a cidade está usando seu sistema de planejamento para uma maior eficiência nos sistemas energético e de resfriamento, garantindo mais contribuição para uma cidade mais resiliente.

spriscos 1 Mudança climática ameaça estabilidade econômica de cidadesDe acordo com o relatório, no Brasil também há bons exemplos de ações climáticas. Em Campinas, no estado de São Paulo, a indústria alimentícia e de bebidas exportou bens no valor de US$ 11 bilhões em 2013, mas a cidade informa que “as indústrias que exigem uso intenso de água, como as companhias de refrigerante, podem escolher outra região devido à escassez de água no estado de São Paulo”.

Por isso, algumas cidades do estado, como a capital e o município de Caieiras, estão desenvolvendo planos de adaptação climática. Caieiras criou uma parceria com o governo nacional em um projeto de US$ 5,3 milhões para aumentar a capacidade de fluxo do rio Juquery, que é responsável pelas enchentes locais, diminuindo o risco e intensidade das inundações.

Já o município de São Paulo está investindo US$ 22 bilhões para melhorar sua infraestrutura de transporte. Tal investimento tem o potencial de criar melhores condições para as empresas operarem, tais como aumentar a mobilidade dos funcionários e clientes, e gerar um movimento mais eficiente de insumos e produtos.

A cidade também está colaborando com grandes companhias para melhorar sua infraestrutura hídrica.A Sabesp, maior companhia de água do país, fez uma parceria com a capital paulista para criar o Programa Vida Nova, que investiu US$ 600 milhões em coordenação com o programa de urbanização de favelas da cidade para fornecer redes de esgoto para 43 favelas e regiões de pouco desenvolvimento na cidade.

“A colaboração entre as cidades e as empresas é essencial para reduzir os impactos às populações mais vulneráveis”, afirma o relatório.

“Três quartos das cidades que fizeram parte do programa de cidades do CDP neste ano identificaram benefícios substanciais que fluem para economias públicas e privadas a partir de iniciativas de adaptação climáticas. Esses benefícios podem ser ampliados através de colaborações mais estreitas e do compartilhamento de conhecimento e recursos técnicos” concluiu Gary Lawrence, diretor de sustentabilidade da firma de serviços de suporte e infraestrutura AECOM.

* Publicado originalmente no site CarbonoBrasil.

(CarbonoBrasil)

Projeto avalia os impactos de mudanças climáticas nos manguezais fluminenses (Faperj)

Débora Motta

10/07/2014

                                        Acervo Nema/Uerj
 1
 Árvores de raízes aéreas se destacam nos
mangues: agentes na captura do carbono
 do ar

O Brasil possui a segunda maior extensão territorial de manguezais, perdendo apenas para a Indonésia. Eles estão presentes em todo o litoral brasileiro, desde o Amapá até o município de Laguna, em Santa Catarina. Esses ecossistemas, com árvores de raízes aéreas e retorcidas, equilibradas na lama e na água salobra, são fundamentais para o equilíbrio ambiental. Afinal, são verdadeiros berçários naturais de diversas espécies, como peixes, moluscos e crustáceos, que neles encontram condições ideais para reprodução e abrigo. “Os manguezais protegem a costa contra os ventos e a inundação do mar, sendo fontes de subsistência de populações, pela pesca e turismo”, disse o oceanógrafo Mário Luiz Gomes Soares, coordenador do Núcleo de Estudos em Manguezais (Nema) e do programa de pós-graduação em Oceanografia da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (Uerj).

Essa riqueza natural, contudo, pode ser comprometida pelas mudanças climáticas em curso no planeta. Para avaliar como o aquecimento global e outros fatores ambientais vêm afetando esses ecossistemas, Soares coordena pesquisas sobre o nível de vulnerabilidade dos manguezais, que tiveram início no estado do Rio de Janeiro, com apoio da FAPERJ, e se ampliaram para outros estados brasileiros, em projetos desenvolvidos com a rede de pesquisa do Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia sobre Ambientes Marinhos (INCT-AmbTropic), coordenado por pesquisador vinculado à Universidade Federal da Bahia e destinado ao estudo das respostas do litoral brasileiro às mudanças climáticas.

O estudo, considerado como o marco inicial das pesquisas de Soares, vem sendo realizado desde o final da década de 1990, no manguezal de Guaratiba, localizado a cerca de 70 quilômetros a oeste da capital fluminense, na Baía de Sepetiba. Contemplado pela Fundação por meio dos editais Apoio à Pesquisa Básica (APQ 1), Apoio a Programas de Pós-Graduação Estaduais, Prioridade Rio e Apoio ao estudo de soluções para problemas relativos ao meio ambiente, o oceanógrafo foi também bolsista da FAPERJ pelo programa Jovem Cientista do Nosso Estado. O trabalho vem sendo financiado ainda pelo Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) e pela Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (Capes).

O manguezal de Guaratiba é o único no Brasil acompanhado em detalhes por pesquisadores durante um período tão extenso. “Em Guaratiba, nosso primeiro laboratório a céu aberto, observamos o impacto da elevação do nível médio do mar e dos ciclos climáticos sobre os manguezais. A partir desse modelo de estudo, a pesquisa foi ampliada para áreas de monitoramento em todo o Brasil, desde Santa Catarina até o Pará, e outras localidades no estado do Rio de Janeiro, incluindo os manguezais da Baía de Guanabara”, disse.

Em outras palavras, os ciclos climáticos regulam a vida nos manguezais. Durante os períodos mais úmidos, a chuva lava o solo, dilui o sal e as árvores conseguem se estabelecer nas planícies hipersalinas, conhecidas como apicuns – uma área descampada que lembra um deserto, extremamente salina, com solo duas a quatro vezes mais salgado do que a lama do manguezal, e sem a presença de vegetação arbórea. Já durante os períodos mais secos, ocorre o inverso e a vegetação do mangue fica prejudicada. “As mudanças climáticas podem alterar o regime de chuvas, fazendo com que elas fiquem mais escassas em algumas regiões e mais frequentes em outras. Em Guaratiba, por exemplo, observamos as respostas da floresta aos ciclos de clima. Nos anos mais úmidos ela cresce, e nos mais secos retrai”, destacou Soares. “Em algumas regiões sem aporte de rio, os manguezais dependem apenas da água da chuva. Quando chove menos que o normal, a vegetação do mangue fica prejudicada, e até morre”, completou.

Durante todos esses anos de pesquisa de campo, em que o oceanógrafo e a equipe do Nema deixa o conforto do Rio para fazer medições na lama e na mata fechada de Guaratiba, foi observada uma tendência comum em outros manguezais. “Ao longo dos anos, as espécies de vegetais do mangue e, consequentemente, de animais, começaram a colonizar uma área diferente, avançando em direção ao continente. Essa migração é uma resposta da floresta à elevação do nível médio do mar, devido a fatores como o aquecimento global. Para sobreviver, o manguezal precisa ir se adaptando conforme a subida das águas”, resumiu Soares.

Assim, as florestas de mangue vêm avançando continente adentro sobre os apicuns. Quando a maré sobe, o mar inunda essas planícies. A água empoçada, após sua evaporação, deposita sal em excesso no solo, o que inviabiliza a sobrevivência das espécies típicas do mangue. Apesar das condições de sobrevivência adversas, aos poucos as plantas se instalam ali, devido à inundação dessa área, cada vez mais frequente com o aumento do nível do mar. “Em Guaratiba, a floresta avançou rumo ao continente quase 80 metros, desde 1998”, detalhou Soares.

 Acervo Nema/Uerj
    2
Mário Soares, da Uerj, ressalta a importância
de políticas públicas para conservar manguezais   

Diante dessa observação, o desafio é avaliar se há espaço físico nos territórios que devem ser ocupados pelos manguezais, vizinhos a esses ecossistemas. “Prevendo esse movimento de migração dos manguezais, que vai se intensificar nos próximos anos, temos que ter políticas públicas, a longo prazo, para a gestão adequada da zona costeira. É preciso saber se essas áreas atrás dos manguezais, perto do continente, estão disponíveis. Muitas delas já foram ocupadas por empreendimentos imobiliários, o que deve ser uma fonte de preocupação”, explicou. E prosseguiu: “Em Sepetiba, a Companhia Siderúrgica do Atlântico foi construída exatamente na área onde o mangue deveria migrar. Daí a importância do planejamento urbano de ocupação territorial.”

Na Baía de Guanabara, há um problema de planejamento similar. Entre os manguezais estudados ao longo desse período pela equipe do Nema, os da região metropolitana do Rio apresentam, na maioria, alta vulnerabilidade à subida do nível do mar. “Em um estudo comandado pelo Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (Inpe), fizemos uma análise dos sistemas costeiros, mapeamos todos os manguezais dos municípios da Região Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro e analisamos a vulnerabilidade deles no caso de elevação do nível do mar”, resumiu Soares. “As únicas áreas de vulnerabilidade intermediária na Baía de Guanabara são aquelas protegidas pela APA de Guapimirim e a Estação Ecológica Guanabara”, completou. (Veja o mapa da vulnerabilidade dos manguezais à elevação do nível do mar na região metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro, sendo que as áreas representadas em vermelho apresentam alta vulnerabilidade, as áreas em amarelo, média vulnerabilidade, e as áreas em verde, baixa vulnerabilidade, segundo as pesquisas do Nema:http://www.faperj.br/images/Mapeamento_manguezais_RJ.jpg).

Outra característica dos manguezais monitorados por Soares, de extrema relevância ambiental, é a sua importante capacidade de absorver carbono da atmosfera. Para estudar como os manguezais “sequestram” o carbono do ar, o grupo do Nema desenvolveu alguns modelos matemáticos para estimar a quantidade de carbono armazenada em cada espécie vegetal do mangue, ou mesmo na lama. O manguezal tem uma capacidade de armazenamento de carbono pouco menor que a de outras florestas tropicais. Em relação à Amazônia, o valor total só não é maior porque a área do ecossistema costeiro é muito menor (pouco mais de 1 milhão de hectares) do que a da Amazônia (aproximadamente 500 vezes maior) ou da mata atlântica.

Acervo Nema/Uerj
 3
 Equipe do Nema em trabalho de campo: estudo do manguezal
de Guaratiba foi a base para entender mangues em outros estados

“No entanto, se considerarmos a soma da quantidade de carbono aprisionado na biomassa aérea (a parte das árvores acima do solo), com a biomassa subterrânea (as raízes) e o sedimento (a lama), o manguezal ganha da Amazônia no armazenamento de carbono por unidade de área”, avaliou Soares. E prosseguiu: “É importante conservar os manguezais, que têm grande potencial para aprisionar o carbono e, quando um sistema com tanto carbono é destruído, libera esse carbono na atmosfera, o que aumenta os gases de efeito estufa responsáveis pelo aquecimento global”, alertou.

Com o aumento da temperatura do planeta, os manguezais também devem ampliar sua distribuição geográfica. A vegetação dos manguezais não cresce em baixas temperaturas, e por isso mais da metade desses ecossistemas do mundo está entre as latitudes 10°N e 10°S. “Como o sul do Brasil deve se tornar mais quente até o fim do século XXI, conforme as previsões climáticas, os manguezais devem ocupar latitudes mais altas e se expandir para regiões onde não existem hoje, ao sul do limite deles em Laguna”, disse Soares. Até o momento, conforme artigo do Nema publicado na renomada revista científica britânicaEstuarine, Coastal and Shelf Sciencenão houve expansão dos manguezais além dos limites latitudinais, nos últimos 30 anos.

Assim, pela importância ecológica, econômica e social, e pela vulnerabilidade das áreas costeiras onde preferencialmente ocorrem os adensamentos urbanos, empreendimentos portuários e industriais, e o cultivo de camarões, os manguezais merecem atenção especial. “Esperamos, dessa forma, contribuir, através da elaboração de um estudo aplicado, para a estruturação de políticas de conservação, restauração e monitoramento dos remanescentes de manguezal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro e do Brasil e, por conseguinte, dos bens e serviços vinculados a esses sistemas”, justificou o oceanógrafo.

Ao lado de Soares, participam do projeto os professores Felipe de Oliveira Chaves e Gustavo Calderucio Duque Estrada, ambos do Nema/Uerj; as professoras Cláudia Hamacher e Cássia Farias, do Laboratório de Geoquímica Orgânica Marinha da Uerj; e a professora Carla Madureira, da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), além de diversos alunos de pós-graduação do Nema/Uerj, como os doutorandos Viviane Fernandez, Paula Almeida, Daniel Medina, Michelle Passos e Marciel Estevam, além dos mestrandos Mayne Assunção, Brunna Tomaino, Carolina Cardoso e Ana Carolina Teixeira.

© FAPERJ – Todas as matérias poderão ser reproduzidas, desde que citada a fonte.

Negócio arriscado (Folha de São Paulo)

JC e-mail 4987, de 11 de julho de 2014

Em editorial, a Folha de São Paulo faz uma leitura sobre as mudanças climáticas no Planeta

O ano de 2015 poderá assistir a uma mudança de sinal na questão da mudança climática planetária. Há indícios de que ela já deixa o terreno estéril das polêmicas ao estilo Fla-Flu para se tornar, cada vez mais, uma preocupação crescente entre empresários e governantes de todos os matizes.

Não têm faltado manifestações nesse sentido. Elas aparecem bem sumarizadas na entrevista de Achim Steiner, diretor-executivo do Programa das Nações Unidas para o Meio Ambiente (Pnuma) ao jornal “Valor Econômico”.

Steiner aposta num bom acordo internacional em Paris, no final de 2015, decisiva reunião de cúpula sobre o clima. Um tratado abrangente e ambicioso reverteria o fiasco de Copenhague (2009), que deveria ter produzido um documento para substituir o Protocolo de Kyoto (1997), extinto em 2012.

Para o diretor do Pnuma, a poluição do carbono –que agrava o efeito estufa e leva ao aquecimento global– não é o preço inevitável do desenvolvimento. Seus argumentos são essencialmente econômicos, e não ideológicos.

Ele aponta a distorção dos subsídios concedidos mundialmente aos combustíveis fósseis (carvão, petróleo e gás natural), principal fonte do carbono lançado na atmosfera por atividades humanas. A conta fica entre US$ 600 bilhões e US$ 700 bilhões anuais e correspondente a cerca de dez vezes os incentivos para energias renováveis, como a eólica (ventos).

Seu exemplo é o Quênia, país que planeja incluir em cinco anos os 75% da população hoje sem acesso à eletricidade –e o fará com 95% de fontes limpas. Poderia ter citado o Brasil, que tem 80% de sua matriz com geração renovável e, nos últimos anos, descobriu os atrativos da energia eólica.

E Achim Steiner não está só. No contexto da opinião pública dos EUA, talvez a mais refratária ao tema do aquecimento global, líderes da política e da economia –democratas e republicanos– também vieram a público para defender que a inação diante dos problemas do clima, hoje, custará caro no futuro cada vez menos distante.

A manifestação apareceu no relatório “Risky Business” (negócio arriscado), com o endosso de pesos pesados como os ex-secretários do Tesouro dos EUA Henry Paulson, Robert Rubin e George Shultz, além de Michael Bloomberg, ex-prefeito de Nova York.

Seu raciocínio é cristalino: por remoto que seja o perigo, faz-se seguro contra incêndio; que sentido haveria, então, em ignorar os riscos do aquecimento global? A resposta será dada, ou não, em Paris.

(Folha de São Paulo)
http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/opiniao/175354-negocio-arriscado.shtml

Amazon rainforest grew after climate change 2,000 years ago -study (Reuters)

BY ALISTER DOYLE, ENVIRONMENT CORRESPONDENT

OSLO, July 8 Mon Jul 7, 2014 11:58pm BST

(Reuters) – Swathes of the Amazon may have been grassland until a natural shift to a wetter climate about 2,000 years ago let the rainforests form, according to a study that challenges common belief that the world’s biggest tropical forest is far older.

The arrival of European diseases after Columbus crossed the Atlantic in 1492 may also have hastened the growth of forests by killing indigenous people farming the region, the scientists wrote in the U.S. journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

“The dominant ecosystem was more like a savannah than the rainforest we see today,” John Carson, lead author at the University of Reading in England, said of the findings about the southern Amazon.

The scientists said that a shift toward wetter conditions, perhaps caused by natural shifts in the Earth’s orbit around the sun, led to growth of more trees starting about 2,000 years ago.

The scientists studied man-made earthworks – uncovered by recent logging in Bolivia – that included ditches up to about a kilometre (1,100 yards) long and up to 3 metres deep and 4 metres wide.

They found large amounts of grass pollen in ancient sediments of nearby lakes, suggesting the region had been covered by savannah. They also found evidence of plantings of maize, pointing to farming.

PRISTINE

The Amazon has traditionally been seen as a pristine, dense rainforest, populated by hunter-gatherers. In recent years, however, archaeologists have found hints that indigenous peoples lived in the thick forest, but managed to clear tracts of land for farming.

The PNAS study suggests a new idea – that the forest simply did not exist in some regions.

The “findings suggest that rather than being rainforest hunter-gatherers, or large-scale forest clearers, the people of the Amazon from 2,500 to 500 years ago were farmers,” the University of Reading said in a statement.

Carson said that perhaps a fifth of the Amazon basin, in the south, may have been savannah until the shift, with forests covering the rest.

In one lake, Laguna Granja, rainforest plants only took over from grass as the main sources of pollen in sediments about 500 years old, suggesting a link to the arrival of Europeans.

The purpose of the earthworks is unknown – they could have been defensive or for drainage or religious purposes.

And understanding the forest could help solve puzzles about climate change.

The Amazon rainforest affects climate change because trees soak up heat-trapping carbon dioxide as they grow and release it when they rot or are burnt. Brazil has sharply slowed deforestation rates in recent years.

Carson said that the growth of Amazonian forests could, for instance, have contributed to the Little Ice Age, from about 1350 to 1850 by absorbing heat-trapping gases from the air.

Michael Heckenberger, an expert on the Amazon at the University of Florida, said the study added to evidence that people living in the Amazon managed nature.

“These indigenous systems were highly sophisticated…There are over 80 domesticated or semi-domesticated crops in the Amazon,” he said. “In Europe at the time they were working with about six.” (Reporting by Alister Doyle; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)

 

Climate change: IPCC must consider alternate policy views, researchers say (Science Daily)

Date: July 7, 2014

Source: Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs

Summary: The Summary for Policymakers recently produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has triggered a public debate about excessive governmental intrusion in the IPCC process. The IPCC cannot avoid alternative political interpretations of data and must involve policy makers in finding out how to address these implications, according to a team of researchers.

 In addition to providing regular assessments of scientific literature, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Process (IPCC) also produces a “Summary for Policymakers” intended to highlight relevant policy issues through data.

While the summary presents powerful scientific evidence, it goes through an approval process in which governments can question wording and the selection of findings but not alter scientific facts or introduce statements at odds with the science. In particular, during this process, the most recent summary on mitigation policies was stripped of several important figures and paragraphs that were in the scientists’ draft, leading some IPCC scientists to express concerns about excessive political intrusion.

Delicate issues of political interpretation cannot be avoided, wrote three IPCC authors in the journalScience. In their analysis, the team — which includes Marc Fleurbaey from Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs — uses global emissions data to show how multiple political interpretations can be made from the same dataset. They argue that the IPCC should consider a writing process that better connects scientific findings with multiple political outcomes.

“The IPCC should consider opening up more channels for dialogue in which salient political discussions are connected to relevant scientific material,” said the article’s co-author Marc Fleurbaey, the Robert E. Kuenne Professor in Economics, Humanistic Studies and Public Affairs. “Such a collaboration or coproduction is what lends the IPCC its credibility as the voice of scientists — but with more weight for policy.”

While the IPCC undoubtedly produces the most up-to-date, comprehensive scientific reports on climate change, its approval process has become tediously extensive. As the panel embarks upon its sixth assessment, those involved have been working toward streamlining the process.

In their review, Fleurbaey and his co-authors — Navroz Dubash from the Centre for Policy Research in India and Sivan Kartha from the Stockholm Environment Institute — write that this approval process sets the IPCC apart from other technical reports. Instead of changing the approval process, they suggest an alternate vision for articulating science and policy at the IPCC.

To illustrate their vision, the researchers analyzed global emissions by reviewing income growth across countries, a key driver of emissions growth. When looking at income, countries are sometimes grouped into such categories as lower-income, lower-middle income, upper-middle income and high-income. The trouble, however, is that some countries are rapidly changing in terms of income, which elides relevant information. Likewise, a few big countries can dominate the statistics, and the time reference used for grouping them also can lead to large differences.

When global emissions are analyzed according to groupings based on current income figures, upper-middle income countries account for 75 percent of the rise in global emissions from 2000 to 2010. This presentation of data was deleted from the recent summary report. A political interpretation of this, Fleurbaey and his collaborators write, may be that country groupings should reflect the increasing role of upper-middle income countries and perhaps impose commensurate emission limits.

However, when grouping countries according to their income in the middle of the decade (2005), global emissions rose three quarters in lower-middle income countries, a change due in part to the fact that China joined the upper-middle income group in 2010 only. This presentation highlighting lower-middle income countries may suggest supporting these countries financially and technologically in developing lower carbon economies.

“As you can see, both representations would be equally faithful to the underlying data, but they are also equally synthetic and incomplete, and they differ markedly in their political extrapolations,” said Fleurbaey. “It’s hard to accurately group these countries without imposing political perceptions, and analysis by country groups is highly sensitive in the current context of the renegotiation of the groups defined in the Kyoto protocol.”

As an illustration that more positive outcomes can be obtained from governmental dealings, the authors report that some sections benefited from the approval process, as they were eventually expanded and clarified by additional explanations. For example, the framing section of the summary, which was taken up for discussion early in the approval process, achieved a smooth convergence between the authors and country delegates.

On the flip side, the international cooperation section was much shortened, simplified and seemingly stripped of controversy. This section had much less time allowed for discussion and was examined in a contentious atmosphere after the removal of several figures involving country groupings.

Fellow IPCC author Michael Oppenheimer, the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs in the Woodrow Wilson School and Department of Geosciences, who was not an author of the Science article, fully supported its position.

“IPCC, and attempts to solve the climate problem, would benefit immensely from a strengthening of the science-policy interface,” Oppenheimer said. “Proposals to completely separate the science and policy functions are simply wrong-headed and self-defeating. This collaboration is what makes IPCC unique and uniquely effective”

“Seemingly technical choices can crystallize into value-laden political conclusions, particularly given tight word and time limits,” said Fleurbaey. “It is more productive for authors to be aware of the varying political implications and factor these into their representations of data.”

Journal Reference:
  1. N. K. Dubash, M. Fleurbaey, S. Kartha. Political implications of data presentationScience, 2014; 345 (6192): 36 DOI: 10.1126/science.1255734

Os céticos estão perdendo espaço (Valor Econômico)

JC e-mail 4985, de 09 de julho de 2014

Artigo de Martin Wolf publicado no Valor Econômico

Não temos uma atmosfera chinesa ou americana. Temos uma atmosfera planetária. Não podemos fazer experimentos independentes com ela. Mas temos feito um experimento conjunto. Não foi uma decisão consciente: ocorreu em consequência da Revolução Industrial. Mas estamos decidindo conscientemente não suspendê-lo.

Realizar experimentos irreversíveis com o único planeta que temos é irresponsável. Só seria racional se recusar a fazer alguma coisa para mitigar os riscos se tivéssemos certeza de que a ciência da mudança climática provocada pelo homem é um embuste.

Qualquer leitor razoavelmente aberto a novas ideias do “Summary for Policymakers” do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudança Climática chegaria à conclusão que qualquer certeza desse tipo sobre a ciência seria absurda. É racional perguntar se os benefícios da mitigação superam os custos. É irracional negar que é plausível a mudança climática provocada pelo homem.

Nessas discussões e, aliás, na política climática, os Estados Unidos desempenham papel central, por quatro motivos. Em primeiro lugar, os EUA ainda são o segundo maior emissor mundial de dióxido de carbono, embora sua participação de 14% do total mundial em 2012 o situe bem atrás dos 27% da China. Em segundo lugar, as emissões americanas per capita correspondem aproximadamente ao dobro das emissões das principais economias da Europa ocidental ou do Japão. Seria impossível convencer as economias emergentes a reduzir as emissões se os EUA não aderissem. Em terceiro lugar, os EUA dispõem de recursos científicos e tecnológicos insuperáveis, que serão necessários para que o mundo possa enfrentar o desafio de associar baixas emissões à prosperidade para todos. Finalmente, os EUA abrigam o maior número de opositores ativistas apaixonados e engajados.

Diante desse quadro, dois acontecimentos recentes são estimulantes para os que (como eu) acreditam que o senso comum mais elementar nos obriga a agir. Um deles foi a publicação do “President’s Climate Action Plan” no mês passado. Esse plano abrange a mitigação, a adaptação e a cooperação mundial. Seu objetivo é reduzir até 2020 as emissões de gases-estufa para níveis 17% inferiores aos de 2005.

O outro acontecimento, também ocorrido no mês passado, foi a publicação de um relatório – o “Risky Business” – por um poderoso grupo bipartidário que incluía o ex-prefeito de Nova York, Michael Bloomberg, os ex-secretários do Tesouro dos EUA, Hank Paulson e Robert Rubin, e o ex-secretário de Estado George Shultz.

Mas precisamos moderar nossa alegria. Mesmo se o governo implementar seu plano com êxito, ao explorar sua autoridade reguladora, será um começo apenas modesto. As concentrações de dióxido de carbono, metano e óxido nitroso subiram para níveis sem precedentes do último período de pelo menos 800 mil anos, muito antes do surgimento do “Homo sapiens”. Pelo nosso ritmo atual, o aumento será muito maior até o fim do século, e os impactos sobre o clima tenderão a ser grandes, irreversíveis e talvez catastróficos. Aumentos da média da temperatura de 5° C acima dos níveis pré-industriais são concebíveis à luz do nosso ritmo atual. O planeta seria diferente do que é hoje.

“Risky Business” revela o que isso poderia significar para os EUA. O documento se concentra nos danos aos imóveis e à infraestrutura litorâneos decorrentes da elevação dos níveis do mar. Examina os riscos de tempestades mais fortes e mais frequentes. Considera possíveis mudanças na agricultura e na demanda por energia, bem como o impacto da alta das temperaturas sobre a produtividade e a saúde pública. algumas áreas do país poderão se tornar quase inabitáveis.

O que faz do relatório um documento importante é que ele expõe a questão, corretamente, como um problema de gestão de risco. O objetivo tem de ser eliminar os riscos localizados na extremidade da distribuição das possíveis consequências. A maneira de fazer isso é mudar o comportamento. Ninguém pode nos vender seguros contra mudanças planetárias. Já vimos o que o risco remoto, localizado na extremidade da distribuição de riscos, significa em finanças. No âmbito do clima, as extremidades são mais encorpadas e tendentes a ser muito mais prejudiciais.

A questão é se uma coisa real e importante pode derivar desses novos começos modestos. Pode sim, embora deter o aumento das concentrações de gases-estufa é coisa que exige muito esforço.

Sempre pensei que a maneira de avançar seria por meio de um acordo mundial de limitação das emissões, à base de alguma combinação entre impostos e cotas. Atualmente considero esse enfoque inútil, como demonstra o fracasso do Protocolo de Kyoto de 1997 em promover qualquer verdadeira mudança na nossa trajetória de emissões. O debate político em favor de políticas públicas substanciais terá sucesso se, e somente se, duas coisas acontecerem: em primeiro lugar, as pessoas precisam acreditar que o impacto da mudança climática pode ser ao mesmo tempo grande e caro; em segundo lugar, elas precisam acreditar que os custos da mitigação serão toleráveis. Esse último fator, por sua vez, exige o desenvolvimento de tecnologias confiáveis e exequíveis para um futuro de baixos teores de carbono. Assim que ficar demonstrada a viabilidade de um futuro desse tipo, a adoção das políticas necessárias será mais fácil.

Nesse contexto, os dois novos documentos se corroboram mutuamente. “Risky Business” documenta os custos potenciais para os americanos da mudança climática não mitigada. O foco do governo em padrões reguladores é, portanto, uma grande parte da resposta, principalmente porque os padrões certamente obrigarão a uma aceleração da inovação na produção e no uso da energia. Ao reforçar o apoio à pesquisa fundamental, o governo americano poderá desencadear ondas de inovação benéficas em nossos sistemas de energia e de transportes marcados pelo desperdício. Se promovida com urgência suficiente, essa medida também poderá transformar o contexto das negociações mundiais. Além disso, em vista da falta de mitigação até esta altura, uma grande parte da reação deverá consistir em adaptação. Mais uma vez, o engajamento dos EUA deverá fornecer mais exemplos de medidas que funcionam.

Secretamente esperava que o tempo desse razão aos opositores. Só assim a ausência de resposta a esse desafio se revelaria sem custo. Mas é pouco provável que tenhamos essa sorte.

Continuar no nosso caminho atual deverá gerar danos irreversíveis e onerosos. Existe uma possibilidade mais alvissareira. Talvez se mostre possível reduzir o custo da mitigação em tal medida que ele se torne politicamente palatável. Talvez, também, nos conscientizemos muito mais dos riscos. Nenhuma das duas hipóteses parece provável. Mas, se esses dois relatórios efetivamente motivarem uma mudança na postura dos EUA, as probabilidades de escapar do perigo terão aumentado, embora talvez tarde demais. Isso não merece dois, muito menos três vivas. Mas poderíamos tentar um. (Tradução de Rachel Warszawski)

Martin Wolf é editor e principal analista econômico do FT.

(Valor Econômico)
http://www.valor.com.br/opiniao/3607960/os-ceticos-estao-perdendo-espaco#ixzz36yVZ5PEw

Mudança do clima e ação humana alteram litoral no Brasil (Fapesp)

Barreira de proteção para proteger a praia da força das ondas. Estudo realizado por pesquisadores de São Paulo e de Pernambuco detalhou a vulnerabilidade da costa nos dois estados (foto: Eduardo Siegle)
04/07/2014

Por Fabio Reynol

Agência FAPESP – As zonas costeiras costumam sofrer alterações provocadas por elementos naturais, como elevação do nível do mar e o regime de ondas a que são submetidas. Com as mudanças climáticas, os elementos naturais que influenciam nas alterações das praias, chamados de condições forçantes, devem se intensificar e modificar o desenho das terras costeiras.

Pesquisa conduzida em São Paulo e Pernambuco, que investigou os impactos sofridos por quatro praias nos dois estados, concluiu, no entanto, que os efeitos da ação humana podem ser ainda mais fortes do que os da natureza.

Executado com apoio da FAPESP e da Fundação de Amparo à Ciência e Tecnologia do Estado de Pernambuco (Facepe), o trabalho é resultado de uma chamada de propostas lançada no âmbito de um acordo de cooperação entre as instituições.

A pesquisa “Vulnerabilidade da zona costeira dos estados de São Paulo e Pernambuco: situação atual e projeções para cenários de mudanças climáticas” durou três anos, período em que foram estudadas as praias paulistas de Ilha Comprida, no município de mesmo nome, e de Massaguaçu, em Caraguatatuba, e as pernambucanas praia da Piedade, em Jaboatão dos Guararapes, e praia do Paiva, em Cabo de Santo Agostinho.

“Escolhemos praias com características diferentes para fazer as comparações. Massaguaçu, no litoral norte paulista, e Jaboatão, na região metropolitana do Recife, são praias urbanas, enquanto Ilha Comprida e Paiva ficam em regiões menos habitadas”, disse o coordenador do projeto, Eduardo Siegle, professor do Instituto Oceanográfico da Universidade de São Paulo (IO/USP), que dividiu a liderança dos trabalhos com a professora Tereza Araújo, da Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE).

A pesquisa analisou como as mudanças climáticas globais provocam alterações na costa. Uma das condições forçantes é o clima de ondas. Segundo Siegle, as mudanças climáticas provocam alterações nos regimes de ventos, principais influenciadores na formação das ondas. Com direção e força alteradas, as ondas podem redesenhar o contorno das praias, refazendo sua morfologia.

“As ondas redefinem os depósitos de sedimentos e as praias atingem um equilíbrio dinâmico mediante as condições a que estão sujeitas; pode ocorrer erosão em alguns pontos e deposição de material em outros”, disse Siegle, acrescentando que uma praia pode encolher, mudar de formato e até aumentar de tamanho.

Outro fator decorrente das mudanças climáticas é a elevação do nível do mar, que leva as ondas a ter maior alcance e atingir novos pontos da costa. Essa condição costuma aumentar erosões e provocar inundações de áreas próximas à costa.

Um ponto confirmado pelos resultados obtidos foi o fato de que, em algumas regiões, as ações antrópicas no litoral exerceram mais influência nessas alterações que as forças da natureza. “Acompanhamos imagens de décadas. Nesse período, os impactos de uma ocupação mal feita do litoral podem ser muito maiores do que aqueles provocados por mudanças climáticas”, disse.

Processos de urbanização que impermeabilizam áreas praianas necessárias ao movimento de sedimentos, por exemplo, costumam provocar erosões de forma mais acentuada. No estudo, a ação humana figurou entre os principais influenciadores da vulnerabilidade costeira.

Observação dos processos costeiros

O trabalho também se debruçou sobre as mudanças históricas nas condições forçantes naturais. Para isso, a equipe lançou mão de modelos computacionais que simularam essas forças e seus efeitos ao longo das últimas décadas. Outro método de investigação foi a coleta de dados em campo. Os pesquisadores fizeram levantamentos morfológicos, que analisam o formato das praias e mediram parâmetros de suas ondas.

A medição de variáveis físicas na região costeira exigiu a aplicação de métodos inovadores para colocar instrumentos nas zonas de arrebentação, relatou Siegle. A equipe acoplou um perfilador acústico de correntes marinhas Doppler (ADCP) em uma moto aquática com um trenó.

O equipamento fornece parâmetros como velocidade das correntes na coluna d’água, altura, direção e período das ondas. A moto aquática foi usada para levantamentos batimétricos e hidrodinâmicos em áreas rasas sujeitas à arrebentação de ondas, nas quais embarcações convencionais não conseguem navegar.

Uma série de imagens aéreas registradas ao longo de aproximadamente 40 anos foi outra importante fonte de dados para a pesquisa. Foram acessados arquivos do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (Inpe) e do próprio Instituto Oceanográfico da USP. Por meio de pontos georreferenciados marcados sobre as imagens, foi possível acompanhar as alterações na faixa costeira ao longo do tempo.

Com os dados coletados pelos diferentes métodos, o grupo estabeleceu nove indicadores de vulnerabilidade: posição da linha de costa, largura da praia, elevação do terreno, obras de engenharia costeira, permeabilidade do solo, vegetação, presença de rios ou desembocaduras, taxa de ocupação e configurações ao largo. Este último diz respeito à área de mar aberto adjacente à região costeira em estudo.

Sistemas praiais mais largos tendem a ser mais estáveis que faixas estreitas, portanto menos vulneráveis. A presença de vegetação bem desenvolvida na zona pós-praia sugere um cenário de baixa erosão e rara intrusão de água salina.

A vulnerabilidade à inundação pode ser estimada, entre outros fatores, pela permeabilidade do solo. Quanto menos permeável for o solo, mais sujeita à inundação será a área. E por alterar simultaneamente vários desses fatores, a taxa de ocupação da costa é um dos mais preponderantes indicadores de vulnerabilidade de uma área costeira.

Os indicadores foram depois tabulados e classificados de acordo com três graus de vulnerabilidade: alta, média ou baixa, para cada ano analisado. Registrou-se a evolução da vulnerabilidade de cada praia estudada e os pesquisadores chegaram a várias conclusões.

“Entre elas eu destacaria a importância da ocupação humana no litoral na elevação da vulnerabilidade da praia”, disse Siegle. As praias urbanas nos dois estados apresentaram situação de vulnerabilidade maior que aquelas com taxa de ocupação menor.

A aplicação desse método foi detalhada na tese de doutorado de Paulo Henrique Gomes de Oliveira Sousa, intitulada “Vulnerabilidade à erosão costeira no litoral de São Paulo: interação entre processos costeiros e atividades antrópicas”, defendida em 2013 no Programa de Pós-Graduação em Oceanografia do IOUSP.

O projeto de pesquisa resultou em cinco trabalhos de iniciação científica, quatro dissertações de mestrado e duas teses de doutorado, uma com bolsa FAPESP – Cássia Pianca Barroso desenvolveu o trabalho “Uso de imagens de vídeo para a extração de variáveis costeiras: processos de curto a médio termo”.

De acordo com Siegle, vários artigos estão em fase de redação e quatro já foram publicados, entre elesEvolução da vulnerabilidade à erosão costeira na Praia de Massaguaçú (SP), Brasil noJournal of Integrated Coastal Management e Vulnerability assessment of Massaguaçú Beach (SE Brazil) na Ocean & Coastal Management.

Parceria São Paulo-Pernambuco

Além dos resultados científicos, o projeto apresentou como fruto a aproximação entre instituições de pesquisa paulistas e pernambucanas. “A interação foi muito grande e pesquisadores pernambucanos participaram das pesquisas em campo em São Paulo e vice-versa”, contou Siegle.

A aproximação dos grupos levou a outro trabalho conjunto FAPESP-FACEPE, o projeto “Suscetibilidade e resistência de sistemas estuarinos urbanos a mudanças globais: balanço hidro-sedimentar, elevação do nível do mar, resposta a eventos extremos”, coordenado pelos professores Carlos Schettini (UFPE) e Rubens Cesar Lopes Ferreira (IO/USP).

A execução do projeto coordenado por Siegle e Tereza Araújo ainda levou à formação do Grupo de Trabalho “Respostas da Linha de Costa” que incorpora o Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia Ambientes Tropicais Marinhos (AmbTropic) , sediado no Instituto de Geociências da Universidade Federal da Bahia e apoiado pelo Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) e pela Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado da Bahia (Fapesb).

NASA launches carbon mission to watch Earth breathe (Science Daily)

Date: July 2, 2014

Source: NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Summary: NASA successfully launched its first spacecraft dedicated to studying atmospheric carbon dioxide on July 1, 2014. OCO-2 soon will begin a minimum two-year mission to locate Earth’s sources of and storage places for atmospheric carbon dioxide, the leading human-produced greenhouse gas responsible for warming our world, and a critical component of the planet’s carbon cycle.

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2, NASA’s first mission dedicated to studying carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere, lifts off from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, at 2:56 a.m. Pacific Time, July 2, 2014. The two-year mission will help scientists unravel key mysteries about carbon dioxide.

Credit: NASA/Bill Ingalls

NASA successfully launched its first spacecraft dedicated to studying atmospheric carbon dioxide at 2:56 a.m. PDT (5:56 a.m. EDT) Tuesday (July 1, 2014).

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) raced skyward from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, on a United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket. Approximately 56 minutes after the launch, the observatory separated from the rocket’s second stage into an initial 429-mile (690-kilometer) orbit. The spacecraft then performed a series of activation procedures, established communications with ground controllers and unfurled its twin sets of solar arrays. Initial telemetry shows the spacecraft is in excellent condition.

OCO-2 soon will begin a minimum two-year mission to locate Earth’s sources of and storage places for atmospheric carbon dioxide, the leading human-produced greenhouse gas responsible for warming our world, and a critical component of the planet’s carbon cycle.

“Climate change is the challenge of our generation,” said NASA Administrator Charles Bolden. “With OCO-2 and our existing fleet of satellites, NASA is uniquely qualified to take on the challenge of documenting and understanding these changes, predicting the ramifications, and sharing information about these changes for the benefit of society.”

OCO-2 will take NASA’s studies of carbon dioxide and the global carbon cycle to new heights. The mission will produce the most detailed picture to date of natural sources of carbon dioxide, as well as their “sinks” — places on Earth’s surface where carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere. The observatory will study how these sources and sinks are distributed around the globe and how they change over time.

“This challenging mission is both timely and important,” said Michael Freilich, director of the Earth Science Division of NASA’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington. “OCO-2 will produce exquisitely precise measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations near Earth’s surface, laying the foundation for informed policy decisions on how to adapt to and reduce future climate change.”

Carbon dioxide sinks are at the heart of a longstanding scientific puzzle that has made it difficult for scientists to accurately predict how carbon dioxide levels will change in the future and how those changing concentrations will affect Earth’s climate.

“Scientists currently don’t know exactly where and how Earth’s oceans and plants have absorbed more than half the carbon dioxide that human activities have emitted into our atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial era,” said David Crisp, OCO-2 science team leader at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. “Because of this, we cannot predict precisely how these processes will operate in the future as climate changes. For society to better manage carbon dioxide levels in our atmosphere, we need to be able to measure the natural source and sink processes.”

Precise measurements of the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide are needed because background levels vary by less than two percent on regional to continental scales. Typical changes can be as small as one-third of one percent. OCO-2 measurements are designed to measure these small changes clearly.

During the next 10 days, the spacecraft will go through a checkout process and then begin three weeks of maneuvers that will place it in its final 438-mile (705-kilometer), near-polar operational orbit at the head of the international Afternoon Constellation, or “A-Train,” of Earth-observing satellites. The A-Train, the first multi-satellite, formation flying “super observatory” to record the health of Earth’s atmosphere and surface environment, collects an unprecedented quantity of nearly simultaneous climate and weather measurements.

OCO-2 science operations will begin about 45 days after launch. Scientists expect to begin archiving calibrated mission data in about six months and plan to release their first initial estimates of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in early 2015.

The observatory will uniformly sample the atmosphere above Earth’s land and waters, collecting more than 100,000 precise individual measurements of carbon dioxide over Earth’s entire sunlit hemisphere every day. Scientists will use these data in computer models to generate maps of carbon dioxide emission and uptake at Earth’s surface on scales comparable in size to the state of Colorado. These regional-scale maps will provide new tools for locating and identifying carbon dioxide sources and sinks.

OCO-2 also will measure a phenomenon called solar-induced fluorescence, an indicator of plant growth and health. As plants photosynthesize and take up carbon dioxide, they fluoresce and give off a tiny amount of light that is invisible to the naked eye. Because more photosynthesis translates into more fluorescence, fluorescence data from OCO-2 will help shed new light on the uptake of carbon dioxide by plants

OCO-2 is a NASA Earth System Science Pathfinder Program mission managed by JPL for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington. Orbital Sciences Corporation in Dulles, Virginia, built the spacecraft bus and provides mission operations under JPL’s leadership. The science instrument was built by JPL, based on the instrument design co-developed for the original OCO mission by Hamilton Sundstrand in Pomona, California. NASA’s Launch Services Program at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida is responsible for launch management. JPL is managed for NASA by the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

For more information about OCO-2, visit: http://oco.jpl.nasa.gov

OCO-2 is the second of five NASA Earth science missions scheduled to launch into space this year, the most new Earth-observing mission launches in one year in more than a decade. NASA monitors Earth’s vital signs from land, air and space with a fleet of satellites and ambitious airborne and ground-based observation campaigns. NASA develops new ways to observe and study Earth’s interconnected natural systems with long-term data records and computer analysis tools to better see how our planet is changing. The agency shares this unique knowledge with the global community and works with institutions in the United States and around the world that contribute to understanding and protecting our home planet.

For more information about NASA’s Earth science activities in 2014, visit:http://www.nasa.gov/earthrightnow

Follow OCO-2 on Twitter at: https://twitter.com/IamOCO2

Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by NASA/Jet Propulsion LaboratoryNote: Materials may be edited for content and length.

Rachel Biderman: Agropecuária está se tornando a principal fonte de emissões brasileiras (Carbono Brasil)

02/7/2014 – 10h03

por Maura Campanili, do IPAM

Rachel Rachel Biderman: Agropecuária está se tornando a principal fonte de emissões brasileiras

A produção agropecuária de baixo carbono é importante para que o Brasil cumpra suas metas de redução de emissões e colabora para que o produtor consiga adequação ambiental, mas pode ser também um caminho para abrir portas e aumentar a competitividade no mercado internacional, principalmente na Europa e nos Estados Unidos.

Uma ferramenta que pode ajudar o produtor brasileiro a acessar esses benefícios é o Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHG Protocol) Agropecuária, primeiro instrumento voluntário para medir emissões em propriedades rurais, cuja primeira versão foi lançada em primeira mão no Brasil, no final de maio.

O instrumento foi desenvolvido por meio de uma parceria entre o WRI, a Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa) e a Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp), levando em consideração as condições brasileiras. Segundo Rachel Biderman, diretora Executiva do WRI Brasil, “ações desse tipo também ajudam a criar uma cultura de gestão, contribuindo para a solução do problema das mudanças climáticas”.

Em entrevista para a Clima e Floresta, Rachel, que também é professora responsável por módulo de meio ambiente do MBA em Gestão da Sustentabilidade e coordenadora do curso de extensão da Fundação Getúlio Vargas de “Gestão para o Baixo Carbono”, explica porque é importante reduzir as emissões da agricultura no Brasil.

Clima e Floresta – Qual a importância do combate às emissões de gases de efeito estufa na agricultura brasileira?

Rachel Biderman – O Brasil cada vez mais se consolida como grande fonte de alimentos para o mundo. Ao mesmo tempo, estamos entre os maiores emissores de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) do planeta. Considerando a redução das emissões em mudanças do uso da terra, devido à queda dos desmatamentos, a agropecuária está se tornando a principal fonte de emissões brasileiras e já representa 29,7% das emissões brutas brasileiras em CO2e.

Clima e Floresta – Como a agricultura emite GEE?

Biderman – O setor agropecuário gera emissões em função da fermentação entérica dos animais criados; do manejo de dejetos animais; do cultivo de arroz; da queima de resíduos agrícolas e dos solos agrícolas, estas decorrentes da fertilização nitrogenada e de organossolos cultivados. Há também emissões relativas a atividades associadas ao setor, que incluem a conversão de uso do solo – por exemplo, de florestas para pastagens ou de um tipo de lavoura em outro -, e outras relacionadas à produção de energia.

Clima e Floresta – O que é o GHG Protocol Agrícola e como ele pode colaborar para diminuir as emissões?

Biderman – Trata-se de um conjunto de dois instrumentos principais: as Diretrizes e a Ferramenta de Cálculo de Emissões de GEE no setor Agropecuário. Esses instrumentos permitem aos produtores rurais conhecer melhor o perfil das suas emissões de gases de efeito estufa e desenvolver planos de redução mitigando seus impactos sobre o clima. Esses instrumentos permitirão aos produtores rurais contribuir diretamente para o cumprimento dos objetivos do Plano ABC (Agricultura de Baixo Carbono) e para que mecanismos financeiros adequados sejam alocados para essa atividade sustentável.

Clima e Floresta – A quem o GHG Protocol é destinado?

Biderman – Produtores rurais de qualquer porte.

Clima e Floresta – Pequenos agricultores, assentamentos rurais, populações tradicionais podem participar? Como?

Biderman – Os instrumentos se aplicam a qualquer tipo de produção agropecuária. O WRI Brasil organizará projeto para treinar empresas e interessados para o uso dessas ferramentas.

Clima e Floresta – Além da questão das emissões, há outros benefícios na adoção de uma agricultura de baixo carbono?

Biderman – As empresas que adotarem as diretrizes e ferramenta de cálculo do GHG Protocol terão algumas vantagens competitivas. Entre elas podemos citar: Entender riscos operacionais e de reputação; identificar oportunidades de redução de emissões; implantar metas de redução e monitorar a performance; melhorar a reputação e transparência através da divulgação pública de suas emissões de GEE; colher os frutos dos benefícios associados à redução de emissões, como conservação de energia, ampliação de produtividade, melhora na qualidade do solo e da água; preparar-se para regime de quotas e cumprimento legal; antecipar-se para um potencial mercado de carbono.

* Publicado originalmente no site CarbonoBrasil.

(CarbonoBrasil)

Key to adaptation limits of ocean dwellers: Simpler organisms better suited for climate change (Science Daily)

Date: July 1, 2014

Source: Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research

Summary: The simpler a marine organism is structured, the better it is suited for survival during climate change, researchers have discovered this in a new meta-study. For the first time biologists studied the relationship between the complexity of life forms and the ultimate limits of their adaptation to a warmer climate.

The temperature windows of some ocean dwellers as a comparison: the figures for green algae, seaweed and thermophilic bacteria were determined in the laboratory. The fish data stem from investigations in the ocean. Credit: Sina Löschke, Alfred Wegener Institute

The simpler a marine organism is structured, the better it is suited for survival during climate change. Scientists of the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, discovered this in a new meta-study, which appears today in the research journal Global Change Biology. For the first time biologists studied the relationship between the complexity of life forms and the ultimate limits of their adaptation to a warmer climate. While unicellular bacteria and archaea are able to live even in hot, oxygen-deficient water, marine creatures with a more complex structure, such as animals and plants, reach their growth limits at a water temperature of 41 degrees Celsius. This temperature threshold seems to be insurmountable for their highly developed metabolic systems.

The current IPCC Assessment Report shows that marine life forms respond very differently to the increasing water temperature and the decreasing oxygen content of the ocean. “We now asked ourselves why this is so. Why do bacteria, for example, still grow at temperatures of up to 90 degrees Celsius, while animals and plants reach their limits at the latest at a temperature of 41 degrees Celsius,” says Dr. Daniela Storch, biologist in the Ecophysiology Department at the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) and first author of the current study.

Since years Storch and her colleagues have been investigating the processes that result in animals having a certain temperature threshold up to which they can develop and reproduce. The scientists found that the reason for this is their cardiovascular system. They were able to show in laboratory experiments that this transport system is the first to fail in warmer water. Blood circulation supplies all cells and organs of a living organism with oxygen, but can only do so up to a certain maximum temperature. Beyond this threshold, the transport capacity of this system is no longer sufficient; the animal can then only sustain performance for a short time. Based on this, the biologists had suspected at an early date that there is a relationship between the complex structure of an organism and its limited ability to continue to function in increasingly warm water.

“In our study, therefore, we examined the hypothesis that the complexity could be the key that determines the ultimate adaptability of diverse life forms, from marine archaea to animals, to different living conditions in the course of evolutionary history. That means: the simpler the structure of an organism, the more resistant it should be,” explains the biologist. If this assumption is true, life forms consisting of a single simply structured cell would be much more resistant to high temperatures than life forms whose cell is very complex, such as algae, or whose bodies consist of millions of cells. Hence, the tolerance and adaptability thresholds of an organism type would always be found at its highest level of complexity. Among the smallest organisms, unicellular algae are the least resistant because they have highly complex cell organelles such as chloroplasts for photosynthesis. Unicellular protozoans also have cell organelles, but they are simpler in their structure. Bacteria and archaea entirely lack these organelles.

To test this assumption, the scientists evaluated over 1000 studies on the adaptability of marine life forms. Starting with simple archaea lacking a nucleus, bacteria and unicellular algae right through to animals and plants, they found the species in each case with the highest temperature tolerance within their group and determined their complexity. In the end, it became apparent that the assumed functional principle seems to apply: the simpler the structure, the more heat-tolerant the organism type.

But: “The adaptation limit of an organism is not only dependent on its upper temperature threshold, but also on its ability to cope with small amounts of oxygen. While many of the bacteria and archaea can survive at low oxygen concentrations or even without oxygen, most animals and plants require a higher minimum concentration,” explains Dr. Daniela Storch. The majority of the studies examined show that if the oxygen concentration in the water drops below a certain value, the oxygen supply for cells and tissues collapses after a short time.

The new research results also provide evidence that the body size of an organism plays a decisive role concerning adaptation limits. Smaller animal species or smaller individuals of an animal species can survive at lower oxygen concentration levels and higher temperatures than the larger animals.

“We observe among fish in the North Sea that larger individuals of a species are affected first at extreme temperatures. In connection with climate warming, there is generally a trend that smaller species replace larger species in a region. Today, however, plants and animals in the warmest marine environments already live at their tolerance limit and will probably not be able to adapt. If warming continues, they will migrate to cooler areas and there are no other tolerant animal and plant species that could repopulate the deserted habitats,” says Prof. Dr. Hans-Otto Pörtner of the Alfred Wegener Institute. The biologist initiated the current study and is the coordinating lead author of the chapter “Ocean systems” in the Fifth Assessment Report.

The new meta-study shows that their complex structure sets tighter limits for multicellular organisms, i.e. animals and plants, within which they can adapt to new living conditions. Individual animal species can reduce their body size, reduce their metabolism or generate more haemoglobin in order to survive in warmer, oxygen-deficient water. However, marine animals and plants are fundamentally not able to survive in conditions exceeding the temperature threshold of 41 degrees Celsius.

In contrast, simple unicellular organisms like bacteria benefit from warmer sea water. They reproduce and spread. “Communities of species in the ocean change as a result of this shift in living conditions. In the future animals and plants will have problems to survive in the warmest marine regions and archaea, bacteria as well as protozoa will spread in these areas. There are already studies showing that unicellular algae will be replaced by other unicellular organisms in the warmest regions of the ocean,” says Prof. Dr. Hans-Otto Pörtner. The next step for the authors is addressing the question regarding the role the complexity of species plays for tolerance and adaptation to the third climatic factor in the ocean, i.e. acidification, which is caused by rising carbon dioxide emissions and deposition of this greenhouse gas in seawater.

Living at the limit

For generations ocean dwellers have adapted to the conditions in their home waters: to the prevailing temperature, the oxygen concentration and the degree of water acidity. They grow best and live longest under these living conditions. However, not all creatures that live together in an ecosystem have the same preferences. The Antarctic eelpout, for instance, lives at its lower temperature limit and has to remain in warmer water layers of the Southern Ocean. If it enters cold water, the temperature quickly becomes too cold for it. The Atlantic cod in the North Sea, by contrast, would enjoy colder water as large specimens do not feel comfortable in temperatures over ten degrees Celsius. At such threshold values scientists refer to a temperature window: every poikilothermic ocean dweller has an upper and lower temperature limit at which it can live and grow. These “windows” vary in scope. Species in temperate zones like the North Sea generally have a broader temperature window. This is due to the extensively pronounced seasons in these regions. That means the animals have to withstand both warm summers and cold winters.

The temperature window of living creatures in the tropics or polar regions, in comparison, is two to four times smaller than that of North Sea dwellers. On the other hand, they have adjusted to extreme living conditions. Antarctic icefish species, for example, can live in water as cold as minus 1.8 degrees Celsius. Their blood contains antifreeze proteins. In addition, they can do without haemoglobin because their metabolism is low and a surplus of oxygen is available. For this reason their blood is thinner and the fish need less energy to pump it through the body — a perfect survival strategy. But: icefish live at the limit. If the temperature rises by a few degrees Celsius, the animals quickly reach their limits.

Journal Reference:

  1. Daniela Storch, Lena Menzel, Stephan Frickenhaus, Hans-O. Pörtner. Climate sensitivity across marine domains of life: limits to evolutionary adaptation shape species interactionsGlobal Change Biology, 2014; DOI:10.1111/gcb.12645

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Starting With the Oceans, Single-Celled Organisms Will Re-Inherit the Earth (Motherboard)

Written by BEN RICHMOND

July 1, 2014 // 07:41 PM CET

I’ll be the first to cop to being guilty of multi-celled chauvinism: Having complex cells with organelles, which form complex systems allowing you to breathe, achieve consciousness, play volleyball, etc, is pretty much as good as it gets. While we enjoy all these advantages now, though, single-celled, simple organisms are just biding their time. More readily adaptable than us multi-celled organisms, it’s really a simple, single-celled world, and we’re just passing through.

Case in point: the oceans. A team of German researchers just published a paper in the journal Global Change Biology that found that the more simple an organism is, the better off it’s going to be as the oceans warm. Trout will die out, whales will fail, but unicellular bacteria and archaea (a type of microorganism) are going to flourish.

Animals can only develop and reproduce up to a temperature threshold in the water of about 41 degrees Celsius, or 105 degrees Fahrenheit. Beyond this, the cardiovascular system can’t deliver necessary oxygen throughout the body. Even as individual animal species can develop smaller bodies or generate more hemoglobin to survive in warmer and oxygen deficient water, the highly developed metabolic systems that allow for things like eyeballs can’t get over the temperature threshold and the other hurdles it brings, like decreasing oxygen.

Image: Sina Löschke, Alfred Wegener Institute

“The adaptation limit of an organism is not only dependent on its upper temperature threshold, but also on its ability to cope with small amounts of oxygen,”said Daniela Storch, the study’s lead author . “While many of the bacteria and archaea can survive at low oxygen concentrations or even without oxygen, most animals and plants require a higher minimum concentration.”

That’s part of the reason that unicellular organisms are found in the most dramatic settings that Earth has to offer: from Antarctic lakes that were buried under glaciers for 100,000 years, to super-hot hydrothermal vents on the ocean floor, acidic pools in Yellowstone, and the Atacama desert in Chile. When we look around the solar system, we see environments that can’t support complex, multicellular life, but still hold out hope that unicellular life has found a way in Europa’s unseen seas, or below the surface of Mars.

But as the Earth’s climate changes, and the ocean gets warmer and more acidic, complexity goes from an asset to a liability, and simplicity reigns.

“Communities of species in the ocean change as a result of this shift in living conditions. In the future animals and plants will have problems to survive in the warmest marine regions and archaea, bacteria as well as protozoa will spread in these areas,” said Dr. Hans-Otto Pörtner, one of the study’s co-authors. “There are already studies showing that unicellular algae will be replaced by other unicellular organisms in the warmest regions of the ocean.”

The story of life on Earth is, if nothing else, symmetrical. Three and a half billion years ago, prokaryotic cells showed up, without a nucleus or other organelles. Complex, multicellular life emerged with an increase in biomass and decrease in global surface temperature half a billion years ago. In another billion and a half years that complex multicellular life died back out, leaving the planet to the so-called simpler forms of life, as they basked in the light of a much brighter Sun. The best-case scenario is that life lasts until the Sun runs out of fuel, swells into a red giant,and vaporizes whatever is left of our planet in 7.6 billion years.

Multicellular life will have just been a two billion year flicker against a backdrop of adaptable single-celled life. But hey, we had a good run.

Angry White Men and Aggrieved Entitlement (The Society Pages)

by John ZieglerNov 18, 2013, at 09:00 am

From Sheriff Joe Arpaio and his controversial raids on and detentions of immigrants to Rush Limbaugh and his rhetoric about “feminazis,” some white men, those sociologist Michael Kimmelterms “angry white men,” are resisting perceived challenges against their masculinity and historical experiences of privilege.

In his new book Angry White Men, Kimmel has interviewed white men across the country to gauge their feelings about their socioeconomic status in a sluggish and globalizing economy as well as the legal and social advances made by women, people of color, GLBT individuals, and others. Kimmel has coined the term “aggrieved entitlement” to describe these men’s defensiveness and aggravation that both “their” country and sense of self are being taken away from them. Kimmel writes in the Huffington Post,

Raised to believe that this was ‘their’ country, simply by being born white and male, they were entitled to a good job by which they could support a family as sole breadwinners, and to deference at home from adoring wives and obedient children…Theirs is a fight to restore, to reclaim more than just what they feel entitled to socially or economically – it’s also to restore their sense of manhood, to reclaim that sense of dominance and power to which they also feel entitled.

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Cool dudes: The denial of climate change among conservative white males in the United States

Global Environmental Change

Volume 21, Issue 4, October 2011, Pages 1163–1172

Paper

Abstract

We examine whether conservative white males are more likely than are other adults in the U.S. general public to endorse climate change denial. We draw theoretical and analytical guidance from the identity-protective cognition thesis explaining the white male effect and from recent political psychology scholarship documenting the heightened system-justification tendencies of political conservatives. We utilize public opinion data from ten Gallup surveys from 2001 to 2010, focusing specifically on five indicators of climate change denial. We find that conservative white males are significantly more likely than are other Americans to endorse denialist views on all five items, and that these differences are even greater for those conservative white males who self-report understanding global warming very well. Furthermore, the results of our multivariate logistic regression models reveal that the conservative white male effect remains significant when controlling for the direct effects of political ideology, race, and gender as well as the effects of nine control variables. We thus conclude that the unique views of conservative white males contribute significantly to the high level of climate change denial in the United States.

“Rollin’ Coal” Is Pollution Porn for Dudes With Pickup Trucks (Vocativ)

Diesel drivers in rural America have been modifying their trucks to spew out black soot, then posting pics to the Internet. They hate you and your Prius

Author: 

Posted: 06/16/14 08:51 EDT

In small towns across America, manly men are customizing their jacked-up diesel trucks to intentionally emit giant plumes of toxic smoke every time they rev their engines. They call it “rollin’ coal,” and it’s something they do for fun.

An entire subculture has emerged on the Internet surrounding this soot-spewing pastime—where self-declared rednecks gather on Facebook pages (16,000 collective followers) Tumblers and Instagram (156,714 posts) to share photos and videos of their Dodge Rams and GM Silverados purposefully poisoning the sky. As one of their memes reads: “Roll, roll, rollin’ coal, let the hybrid see. A big black cloud. Exhaust that’s loud. Watch the city boy flee.”

Video: https://www.vocativ.com/embed/89277/

Of course, there are things about diesel lovers and their trucks that the rest of us weren’t meant to understand. Like how the guttural noise of a grumbling engine sounds like music when the muffler is removed. Or how the higher the lift and the bigger the tires—the better the man. As Robbie, a 25-year-old mechanic at a diesel garage in South Carolina, puts it, “Your truck is not just something to get you from point A to point B. It’s who you are.” In other words, mushrooming clouds of diesel exhaust are just another way to show off your manhood.

Robbie has been rollin’ coal since he got his first truck 12 years ago, but he admits the allure is “kind of hard to put words on.” “It’s just fun,” he says. “Just driving and blowing smoke and having a good time.”

Rollin Coal 05
CoalMontage

The pollution pageantry has its origins in Truck Pulls, a rural motorsport where diesel pickups challenge one another to see who can pull a weighted sled the farthest. In order to have an edge, drivers started modifying their trucks to dump excessive fuel into the motor, which gave them more horsepower, torque, speed and a better chance of winning. It also made their trucks emit black smoke, an affectation that apparently won the hearts of country boys everywhere. Today kids will spend anywhere from $1,000 to $5,000 modifying their pickups for this sole purpose; adding smoke stacks and smoke switches (which trick the engine into thinking it needs more gas), or even revamping the entire fuel system.

Rollin Coal 02
A Dodge doing its part.
FACEBOOK
Rollin Coal 03
INSTAGRAM

Aside from being macho, the rollin’ coal culture is also a renegade one. Kids make a point of blowing smoke back at pedestrians, in addition to cop cars and rice burners (Japanese-made sedans), which can make it dangerously difficult to see out of the windshield. Diesel soot can also be a great road rage weapon should some wimpy looking Honda Civic ever piss you off. “If someone makes you mad, you can just roll coal, and it makes you feel better sometimes,” says Ryan, a high school senior who works at the diesel garage with Robbie. “The other day I did it to this kid who was driving a Mustang with his windows down, and it was awesome.”

The ultimate highway enemy, however, are “nature nuffies,” or people who drive hybrid cars, because apparently, pro-earth sentiment is an offense to the diesel-trucking lifestyle. “The feeling around here is that everyone who drives a small car is a liberal,” says Ryan. “I rolled coal on a Prius once just because they were tailing me.”

Rollin Coal 04
INSTAGRAM

According to the Clean Air Taskforce, diesel exhaust is one of the country’s greatest sources of toxic pollutants and leads to 21,000 premature deaths each year, but even that won’t deter the coal rollers. “I’m not a scientist, but it couldn’t be too horrible,” Robbie says. “There are a lot of factories that are doing way worse than my truck.”

It should be said that not all diesel drivers roll coal. Older enthusiasts call it a waste of fuel and think it gives their kind a bad name, but like a tobacco habit, the younger set are willing to overlook the risks. “It’s bad for the environment. That’s definitely true,” says Ryan. “And some of the kids that have diesel trucks can look like tools. And you can cause a wreck, but everything else about it is pretty good.”

Eric Eyges contributed Deep Web reporting to this article.

Welcome to West Port Arthur, Texas, Ground Zero in the Fight for Climate Justice (The Nation)

If you live in a toxic environment like this, surrounded by refineries, you’re probably not thinking about some future apocalypse. You’re living in one.

Wen Stephenson

June 3, 2014   |    This article appeared in the June 23-30, 2014 edition of The Nation.

West Port Arthur

(AP Photo/LM Otero)

“We are now faced with the fact that tomorrow is today.” —Martin Luther King Jr.

Hilton Kelley stood smiling in the clear April sunshine outside Kelley’s Kitchen in the Gulf Coast city of Port Arthur, Texas, and extended a hand. Kelley, 53, is a big-framed man, with generous, gentle eyes and white stubble. The sign on the small corner restaurant readsDelicious Home-Cooked Food, but Kelley’s Kitchen is no longer serving. Kelley opened the place up in his beloved hometown in 2010 and managed to keep it running for about two and a half years. “It was going fairly well,” he told me. “But, you know, the town really doesn’t get a lot of foot traffic on this side of Port Arthur anymore.”

Kelley’s Kitchen is the only structure left standing on its section of Austin Avenue, just two blocks from the main downtown thoroughfare. In every direction are more vacant lots and dilapidated buildings—windows blown out, many of them empty for years, even decades. In the bright sun, the streets at midday on a Friday were ghostly quiet.

“This area was once a thriving community,” Kelley said. “It was traffic up and down Austin Avenue here.”

He invited me inside, out of the glare, and we sat at one of the tables in the well-kept place, which he now rents out for private parties and special occasions—there’s even a small dance floor complete with shiny disco ball. But that’s not all that goes on at Kelley’s Kitchen. The space doubles as the office of the Community In-Power & Development Association, or CIDA—the small, tough, grassroots community advocacy and environmental justice organization that Kelley founded in 2000, soon after returning to Port Arthur from California, where he was working in the movie industry as an actor and stunt man. In 2011, he received the prestigious Goldman Prize for his environmental justice activism. Kelley has testified before the Texas Legislature and the US Senate, addressed UNESCO in Paris, and met President Obama at the White House.

Just a few blocks from where we sat is the historic African-American community of West Port Arthur, where Kelley was born and raised in the Carver Terrace housing project, on the fence line of two massive oil refineries—one owned by Valero (formerly Gulf Oil) and the other by Motiva (formerly Texaco). In fact, the recently completed expansion of the Motiva refinery, which Kelley’s group fought hard against, makes it the largest in the nation, having more than doubled its capacity to 600,000 barrels of crude per day. Nearby are five more petrochemical plants and the Veolia incinerator facility. Port Arthur is on the receiving end of the Keystone XL tar-sands pipeline, the southern leg of which—cutting through East Texas communities—went operational in January. But the industry brings few jobs to West Port Arthur, where unemployment is over 15 percent. Workers commute to the plants, and economic development has moved north since the 1980s, along with white flight, to the newer Mid-County area along Highway 69 toward Nederland, where you’ll find a sudden explosion of malls, big-box stores, hotels and theme restaurants with busy parking lots.

And yet the economic abandonment of the downtown area and West Port Arthur, in the very shadow of the world’s richest industry, isn’t even the whole story—there’s also the pollution, some of the most toxic in the country. “One in five West Port Arthur households has someone in it with a respiratory illness,” Kelley said. “One in five.” The county’s cancer mortality rate, according to a recent study, is 25 percent higher than the state average. Toxic “events”—whether from gas flares or accidents—are common, Kelley told me: emissions often darkening the sky, fumes wafting into the neighborhood. The community is downwind of several of the refineries nearby. “If one isn’t flaring or smoking, another one is,” Kelley said. “At least twice a month, we’re going to get some flaring and smoke from one of them.” As much as he can, he documents the events. “Sometimes it’ll be really pungent, to the point where it stings the nose and eyes.”

But apart from these incidents, he added, there’s the constant day-to-day toxic menace in the air. “It’s not always what you see—it’s what you don’t see. A lot of these gases are very dangerous. Sometimes newcomers will smell it and we can’t, because we’re desensitized to it.”

* * *

Kelley had offered to show me around Port Arthur and give me the fence-line tour on the west side, the community where he grew up. I knew about his accomplishments with CIDA—among other things, how they’d successfully pressured both Motiva and Valero, the former to install state-of-the-art equipment to reduce toxic emissions and pay for a community development center, and the latter to fund a new health clinic. And I understood that CIDA is more than an environmental justice group: its mission is to educate, empower and revitalize the community, working especially with young people. I knew that Kelley has made a real difference since returning home.

But before we left Kelley’s Kitchen, I needed to ask him about another threat—one that, given Port Arthur’s economic and racial marginalization, its proximity to dangerous petrochemical infrastructure, and its location on the gulf, could ultimately be the most devastating of all.

Yes, he answered, “we are seeing some of the impacts of climate change around here, as a matter of fact.” The rising sea level has washed out parts of Highway 87 between Port Arthur and Galveston. “They’ve abandoned the road,” Kelley said. And the ferocity of hurricanes, from Katrina and Rita to Ike, has shaken even Port Arthur natives like him. They were spared the worst of Katrina, “but Rita came very soon after that, and that’s when we got hit hard,” Kelley said. “I mean, a lot of the houses are gone. You can still see the FEMA tarps on some of the roofs today. A lot of homes that were once inhabited are now abandoned, because the federal dollars didn’t come in soon enough and the houses just dry-rotted.” The residents of Port Arthur haven’t faced the kind of epic flooding that was seen in New Orleans, but with Hurricane Ike they came close. “Ike brought in a huge surge, and it reached right to the top of our hundred-year levee but didn’t breach it.” Even so, the roof of Kelley’s old office was torn off: “The rain just poured in and destroyed everything.”

I’d heard about Port Arthur, but nothing prepared me for the physical reality of the place—a decaying, all-but-forgotten urban landscape inhabited by a struggling and precariously resilient community. As you drive west and north out of downtown, the refineries stretch for miles, at times towering over you like something out of dystopian science fiction. But this is not some futuristic scenario—it’s here and now. And those same smokestacks that are poisoning the inhabitants of Port Arthur are part of a global fossil fuel infrastructure that has trapped us in its political-economic grip, threatening civilization and the future of life on Earth—threatening not only the children of Port Arthur but everyone’s children, everywhere, including my own.

And yet, here’s the thing: if you live in West Port Arthur and toxic emissions have ruined your health, or your child can’t go to school because she can’t breathe, or you can’t find a job and feed your kids and see no way out of the projects—or all of the above—then you’re probably not thinking about some future apocalypse. You’re living in one. You inhabit an apocalyptic present. And what’s true of Port Arthur is true of frontline communities across the Gulf Coast and across the continent—and the world.

* * *

The struggle for climate justice is a struggle at the crossroads of historic and present injustices and a looming catastrophe that will prove to be, if allowed to unfold unchecked, the mother of all injustices. Because the disaster that is unfolding now will not only compound the suffering of those already oppressed—indeed, is already compounding it—but may very well foreclose any future hope of social stability and social justice.

So why does the term “climate justice” barely register in the American conversation about climate change? Lurking in that question is a tension at the heart of the struggle: a tension between the mainstream climate movement (largely white, well-funded and Washington-focused) and those—most often people of color—who have been fighting for social and environmental justice for decades.

Nobody has worked longer and harder at this intersection of climate and environmental justice than Robert Bullard, the celebrated sociologist and activist who is often called the father of the environmental justice movement. In 1994, he founded the Environmental Justice Resource Center at Clark Atlanta University, the first of its kind, and since 2011 he’s been the dean of the Barbara Jordan–Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs at Texas Southern University (TSU) in Houston. It was Bullard who introduced me to Hilton Kelley, and I knew he could offer historical insight into the relationship between the environmental justice and climate movements.

“Climate change looms as the global environmental justice issue of the twenty-first century,” Bullard writes in 2012’s The Wrong Complexion for Protection: How the Government Response to Disaster Endangers African American Communities, co-authored with longtime collaborator Beverly Wright, founding director of the Deep South Center for Environmental Justice at Dillard University in New Orleans. “It poses special environmental justice challenges for communities that are already overburdened with air pollution, poverty, and environmentally related illnesses.” Climate change, as Bullard and Wright show, exacerbates existing inequities. “The most vulnerable populations will suffer the earliest and most damaging setbacks,” they write, “even though they have contributed the least to the problem of global warming.” (As if to prove the point, their project was delayed for more than two years by Hurricane Katrina, which destroyed the Deep South Center’s computer files and devastated Wright’s New Orleans East community. Her chapters documenting the unequal treatment of the city’s African-Americans in the Katrina recovery are a tour de force.)

Bullard’s landmark 1990 book Dumping in Dixie: Race, Class, and Environmental Qualityestablished the empirical and theoretical—and, for that matter, moral—basis of environmental justice. Through his early work on the siting of urban landfills in Houston’s African-American neighborhoods, beginning in 1978, as well as the siting around the country of toxic waste and incineration facilities, petrochemical plants and refineries, polluting power plants and more, Bullard has systematically exposed the structural and at times blatant racism—which he calls “environmental racism”—underlying the disproportionate burden of pollution on communities of color, especially African-African communities in the South. His work has done much to set the agenda of the environmental-justice movement.

This year marks the twentieth anniversary of Executive Order 12898, signed by Bill Clinton in February 1994, which explicitly established environmental justice in minority and low-income populations as a principle of federal policy. This year also marks the fiftieth anniversary of the Civil Rights Act—a fitting coincidence, as Bullard likes to point out, because the “EJ” executive order reinforced the historic 1964 law. However, in a report released in February called “Environmental Justice Milestones and Accomplishments: 1964 to 2014,” Bullard and his colleagues at TSU write, in what must qualify as understatement: “The EJ Executive Order after twenty years and three U.S. presidents has never been fully implemented.”

I sat down with Bob Bullard (as he’s universally known) in April in his office at TSU, where we had two lively and substantive conversations. I’d interviewed him once before, by phone last August, and in the meantime he’d been much in demand. In September, he received the Sierra Club’s John Muir Award, its highest honor; in March, he delivered the opening keynote address at the National Association of Environmental Law Societies conference at Harvard Law School, assessing environmental justice after twenty years (former EPA chief Lisa Jackson was the other keynoter). He received two standing ovations from the jam-packed Harvard audience.

* * *

Bullard, who grew up in small-town Alabama, speaks with an orator’s cadences and a comedian’s timing. At 67, he has a fighter’s glint in his eye and an irresistibly mischievous grin above a Du Boisian goatee (he calls W.E.B. Du Bois his intellectual hero). In Houston, I asked him about the relationship between environmental justice, traditionally understood, and climate justice—and why they sometimes appear to be in tension, at least in the United States.

Bullard likes to start with a history lesson. In 1991, he helped convene the First National People of Color Environmental Leadership Summit in Washington, DC, where seventeen “Principles of Environmental Justice” were adopted. At the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio, those principles were circulated in several languages. But it wasn’t until 2000, in The Hague, that Bullard joined other leaders and groups from around the world for the first “climate justice summit,” meeting in parallel with the sixth United Nations climate conference, or COP 6. “It was a very transformative time,” Bullard recalled. “When environmental justice groups and groups working on climate, on human rights and social justice and civil rights, came together in The Hague in 2000, ‘climate justice’ was not a term that was universally used.” At that summit, “we said that climate justice has to be the centerpiece in dealing with climate change. If you look at the communities that are impacted first, worst and longest—whether in Asia, Africa, Latin America or here in the US—when you talk about the majority of people around the world, climate justice is not a footnote. It is the centerpiece.” And this is not a minority view, he added: “It’s the majority view.”

And yet, Bullard said, here in the United States, “equity and justice get a footnote”—in terms of framing the conversation, it’s been a struggle to make sure that justice is given parity with the science. “That’s the rub,” Bullard told me. “And that’s why the climate movement has not been able to get traction like you’d think it would, given the facts that are there. The people on the ground who could actually form the face of climate change, be the poster child of global warming—they’re almost relegated to the fringes. And that is a mistake.” In the United States as well as globally, Bullard said, “we know the faces, we know what they look like. We know the frontline communities, the frontline nations. But to what extent do we have leadership that’s reflective of communities that are hardest hit? Very little has changed over the last twenty years when it comes to who’s out there.”

I observed that climate justice ought to be the most unifying concept on the planet, if only for the simple reason that people tend to care about their children and grandchildren. I had asked Bullard earlier about the idea of intergenerational justice—the fact that, along with those in the poorest and most vulnerable communities around the world, today’s young people and future generations will bear the vastly disproportionate, potentially devastating impacts of climate change. Isn’t climate justice really environmental justice writ large—in fact, on a global scale—yet with this added generational dimension?

“Exactly,” Bullard said. “And for me, that’s the glue and the organizing catalyst that can bring people together across racial and class lines.”

In that case, I wondered aloud, if the central mission and purpose of the climate movement is to prevent runaway, civilization-destroying global warming—in other words, to create the necessary political and economic conditions for a last-ditch, all-out effort to keep enough fossil fuels in the ground—then isn’t that work already about racial, economic, social and, yes, generational justice? Because the consequences, if we don’t do everything possible to keep fossil fuels in the ground—

“Then we’re not going to have any justice,” Bullard interjected.

“In terms of the moral imperative,” he added, “looking at the severe impacts—the impact on food security, on cross-border conflicts, war, climate refugees—when you look at the human rights piece, in terms of threats to humanity, if we drew it out and looked at it, I think more people would be appalled at these little baby steps that we’re taking. This is an emergency, and it calls for emergency action—not baby steps, but emergency action.”

Nevertheless, Bullard also explained why that all-consuming focus on greenhouse gas emissions is insufficient by itself.

“You have to understand that in order to have a movement, people have to identify with—andown—the movement,” he said. “Just saying climate change is a big problem is not enough to get people to say, ‘We’re gonna work to try to keep coal and oil in the ground.’ There has to be something to trigger people to say, ‘This is my own movement.’”

Bullard believes that the climate justice framework can “bring more people to the table.” Take the example of coal plants: “The environmental justice analysis is that it’s not just the greenhouse gases we’re talking about; in terms of health, it’s also these nasty co-pollutants that are doing damage right now. Not the future—right now.”

So to bring those people to the table, he continued, “you have to say: How do you build a movement around that and reach people where they are?”

* * *

Last year, Bullard and his colleagues at TSU and other historically black colleges and universities—including Beverly Wright at Dillard and the Deep South Center in New Orleans—launched an initiative they call the Climate Education Community University Partnership (CECUP). “We’re linking our schools with these vulnerable communities,” Bullard told me, “trying to get to a population that has historically been left out. We’re going to try to get our people involved.”

When you look at the most vulnerable communities, the “adaptation hot spots,” he added, these are the same communities the schools were founded to serve, and often the very places in which they are located. “We’re not going to wait for somebody to ride in on a white horse and say, ‘We’re going to save these communities!’” Bullard said. “We have to take leadership.”

The initiative invests in a new generation of young scholars and leaders who can draw the connections between greenhouse gas emissions, climate adaptation, and the classic environmental justice issues of pollution, health, and racial and class disparities. “Our folks on the ground can make the connections between these dirty diesel buses, that dirty coal plant, and their kids having to go to the emergency room because of an asthma attack, with no health insurance,” Bullard said. “We see it as human rights issues, environmental issues, health issues, issues of differential power.”

Clearly, anyone like me—with my 40,000-foot view of the climate crisis—would do well to try seeing the concept of climate justice from the ground up, at street level, and through a racial-equity lens. Sitting down with five of Bullard’s graduate students at TSU—joined by two of his colleagues, sociologist and associate dean Glenn Johnson and environmental toxicologist Denae King—I was treated to a generous portion of that ground-up perspective.

For Steven Washington, a 29-year-old native of Houston’s Third Ward and a second-year master’s student in urban planning and public policy, “climate change means asthma; it means health disparities.” Working in Pleasantville, a fence-line community along the Port of Houston, he’s concerned about the city’s notorious air quality, graded F by the American Lung Association, and what it means for a population—especially the elderly—ill equipped to deal with the impacts of climate change. For Jenise Young, a 33-year-old doctoral student in urban planning and environmental policy whose 9-year-old son suffers from severe asthma, climate change is also about “food deserts” like the one surrounding the TSU campus—a social inequity that climate change, as it increases food insecurity, only deepens. (The wealthier University of Houston campus next door inhabits something of an oasis in that desert.) Jamila Gomez, 26, a second-year master’s student in urban planning and environmental policy, points to transportation inequities—the fact that students can’t get to internships in the city, that the elderly can’t get to grocery stores and doctors’ offices, that the bus service takes too long and Third Ward bus stops lack shade on Houston’s sweltering summer days.

I asked the students if they see the growing US climate justice movement—especially students and young people who want to foreground these issues—as a hopeful sign.

“My major concern is that this is a lifelong commitment,” Young replied. “That’s my issue with a lot of the climate justice movement—that it’s the hot topic right now. Prior to that, it was Occupy Wall Street. Prior to that, it was the Obama campaign. But what happens when this is not a fad for you anymore? Because this is not a fad.”

Glenn Johnson, the co-editor of several books, including Environmental Health and Racial Equity in the United States, chimed in: “It’s a life-and-death situation. There are others who come into the movement, they have a choice—they can go back to their respective communities. But for us, there’s no backing out of talking about the [Houston] ship channel. We are the front line; it’s 24/7. When we wake up, we smell that shit.”

“It’s not one problem,” said Denae King. “It’s multiple problems—poverty, food security, greenhouse emissions, all of these things happening at once. In the mind of a person living in a fence-line community, you have to address all of the problems.” Climate change is urgent, she added, “but still, I have to pay my bills today. I have to provide healthy food today.”

All of which is undeniably true. And it is equally true that the scientific evidence overwhelmingly indicates that the window in which to take serious action on climate change is closing fast. Unless we act now to begin radically reducing greenhouse gas emissions and building resilience, our children and future generations face catastrophe. What you hear from climate justice advocates working on the front lines is that, precisely because of this emergency, the way to build a powerful movement is to approach climate change as an intersectional issue.

After I left Houston, I spoke with Jacqueline Patterson, director of the Environmental and Climate Justice Program at the NAACP. One of the first things she did upon arriving in 2009, Patterson told me, was to write a memo looking at climate justice and the NAACP’s traditional agenda. “It went area by area—health, education, civic engagement, criminal justice, economic development—and showed how environmental and climate justice directly intersect in myriad ways.”

Patterson’s work rests on the understanding that if we’re going to address climate change seriously, then we’re in for a rapid energy transition—one that’s by no means guaranteed to be smooth or economically just. In December, her initiative released its “Just Energy Policies” report, looking state by state at the measures—from local-hire provisions to ones for minority- and women-owned businesses—that can help bring about a just transition to clean energy. At a press conference in Milwaukee the day before, Patterson said, she stood next to NAACP leaders, “and we were talking about starting a training and job-placement program for formerly incarcerated youth and youth at risk around solar installation and energy-efficiency retrofitting.” An energy-efficiency bill was recently introduced in the Missouri Legislature, she noted. “Before, we might not have seen the NAACP getting behind that legislation, because the energy conversation wasn’t seen as part of our civil rights agenda. Now, they’re in with both feet.”

Bob Bullard talks about growing up in the small, deeply segregated town of Elba, Alabama, where he graduated from high school in 1964, the year of Freedom Summer and the Civil Rights Act. He went to Alabama A&M, the historically black university in Huntsville, graduated in 1968, then served in the Marines from 1968 to 1970 (but was mercifully spared Vietnam). Bullard was formed by the civil rights struggle. “I was a sophomore in 1965,” he said. “That was the year of Selma and the bridge. As students, you’re very conscious.” He revered Martin Luther King Jr., Rosa Parks, Malcolm X, Stokely Carmichael, Fannie Lou Hamer, Ella Baker and many others. “You identified with a struggle, and you saw it as your struggle.”

Bullard has written about King’s final campaign, when he went to Memphis in 1968 to march in solidarity with the striking sanitation workers. “I tell my students, ‘If you don’t think garbage is an environmental justice issue, you let the garbage workers go on strike.’”

If environmental justice emerged out of the civil rights struggle, then you could almost say that Bullard’s work, and the movement to which he’s dedicated his life, began there in Memphis—picking up where King’s work was cut short.

* * *

Hilton Kelley drove me up Houston Avenue, through what he calls Old Port Arthur, parallel to the railroad tracks that separate the African-American west side from downtown. “This was the booming area during the heyday of Port Arthur,” he said. As we drove alongside the tracks, Kelley pointed to at least three small grocery stores that had long since gone out of business.

We crossed the tracks and drove past a housing project built in the 1970s. Kelley showed me St. John’s Missionary Baptist Church, where the Rev. Elijah “EJ” James allowed him to hold some of his first organizing meetings. But he’s been asked not to distribute fliers outside some of the churches. Kelly affected an old man’s voice: “‘We can appreciate what you’re doing, son. But don’t pass that out around here.’” He added, “Some of them work at the plants.”

We stopped to see his old high school, now a middle school. I noticed the flag was flying at half-staff and wondered why. We both thought for a moment.

“Oh, it must be for MLK,” Kelley said.

Of course. I had completely forgotten—it was April 4.

“I remember when Martin Luther King was shot,” he said. “You could hear the neighbors crying. So I ran down the street to tell my mother, who was down at the laundromat, and she was already in tears. She’d already heard about it. I was 7 years old. It was a sad day.”

We drove down 14th Street, past the small houses—some in good repair with well-kept front yards, many others in poor condition, some at the point of collapse. A few blocks farther, where the road ends, was Carver Terrace, the housing project where Kelley grew up, a stone’s throw from the Valero refinery. Carver Terrace is empty now, slated for demolition, its residents given housing vouchers with the option to relocate to a new project in another part of town—one at least not directly in harm’s way. The last family had moved out about three weeks earlier, Kelley told me.

We got out and stood among the rows of long, plain-brick, two-story buildings. “If you’d come here six months ago,” Kelley said, “you would’ve seen kids running across the street and playing ball right here.”

I asked him how it felt to see it like this now.

“Oh, man, it’s like The Twilight Zone,” he said. “I’m getting used to it, but I ride by here every day.”

Not fifty yards from Carver Terrace, and even closer to a playground with new play structures, exposed pipes emerged from the berm along the Valero fence. Signs read:Warning: Light Hydrocarbon Pipeline.

Kelley told me that he never thought he’d be doing this work for as long as he has. “But here I am,” he said, “fourteen years down the road, still chopping away at it. New issues keep cropping up. But trust me, I’m no ways tired. What I’ve discovered is that we are a necessary entity in this community. I’m here to stay.”

It was a beautiful day, and Kelley drove with the windows down. A middle-aged woman on the street called out to him. “How’s it going?” Kelley said, genuine warmth in his voice.

“Pretty good,” she called back. “How you doin’?”

“I’m hangin’ on in there, enjoyin’ this day.”

“This is a great community to grow up in,” Kelley told me. “I ran and played up and down these streets. I love the smell in the air right now, the plants growing, the springtime. We’ve got a pretty good day today—don’t have any high emissions levels. I’m lovin’ it. You can smell the flowers.”

* * *

The next morning, I went back on my own and drove around downtown and the west side of Port Arthur. It was overcast now, the gray light altering the mood of the day before, and I was overcome by a need to see the ocean, across Sabine Lake and the coastal marshes on the Louisiana side. So I drove out of Port Arthur on Highway 82, passing still more petrochemical plants along the way, and stopped after half an hour at a row of beach houses built on sturdy pilings. The wind on my face was fresh and welcome, but on the horizon, up and down the coast, I could see the oil platforms. No escape.

Heading back into Port Arthur, crossing the wide channel at the mouth of Sabine Lake, I drove over the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial Bridge. As I crested its steep ascent, the Valero and Motiva refineries were spread out in front of me. The dystopian petrochemical landscape stretched into the distance, and I caught my breath at the sight of it as I descended.

What are we fighting for? What are any of us who care about climate justice fighting for? What does “climate justice” mean in the face of the dehumanizing, world-devouring carbon-industrial machine, of which we ourselves are a part? What does it mean in the face of the latest science—which keeps telling us, in its bloodless language, just how late the hour really is?

In 1967, Martin Luther King published his final book, Where Do We Go From Here: Chaos or Community? In those pages, and in his speeches during those last years, he struggled to reinvigorate and reunite the civil rights movement, which was coming apart at the seams over Black Power and nonviolence, over separatism and integration, over how fast and how hard to push for economic justice and against the war in Vietnam. And while he’s often cast these days as a moderate, it’s important to remember just how radical King was.

Critics—including some of his allies—thought that he should stick to race and civil rights and not address what they considered the “separate issues” of labor, poverty and, most of all, war. But King understood that all of these issues were interconnected—that, at a profound level, they intersected. He saw that the “unholy trinity” of racism, poverty and war—with the threat of nuclear annihilation always in the air—were, at root, one and the same. They are all forms of violence, he argued; they all grow from “man’s inhumanity to man” and must be confronted by an unconditional and universal love.

It seems that movements can reach a critical point at which unity—the need to come together around common principles and a common struggle, and a common understanding of what that struggle is about—becomes all-important. The question now is whether climate justice can be defined broadly enough to encompass everyone—not only our own communities, our own children, but everyone, everywhere, including generations not yet born—in order to keep even the possibility of justice alive on Earth.

Because the only chance we have now is to fight for each other. We have to fight for the person sitting next to us and the person living next door to us, for the person across town and across the tracks from us, and for the person across the continent and across the ocean from us. Because we’re fighting for our humanity. Not simply for our own survival, but for the survival of some legitimate hope for what King called the “beloved community.” Even as we struggle just to survive.

Our fight is against chaos and for community. And it cannot wait. “We are now faced with the fact that tomorrow is today,” King wrote in the final paragraph of his last book. “We are confronted with the fierce urgency of now. In this unfolding conundrum of life and history there is such a thing as being too late.”

It may be too late to prevent catastrophe for countless people. Yet even in the face of all we now know, will it ever be too late to hold on to our humanity?

Heidegger and Geology (Public Seminar)

McKenzie Wark

June 26th, 2014

A small, handmade green book mysteriously appeared in my New School mail slot, with the intriguing title: The Anthropocene, or “The work is going well, but it looks like it might be the end of the world.” 

Its author is Woodbine, which turns out to be an address in Brooklyn where the texts in this small book were first presented. (The texts, and information about this interesting project, can also be found here and here). I have never been to Woodbine, but good things seem to be happening there.

I read the book on the way home to Queens from the New School, on the subway. As it turns out this was a fitting place to be reading these very interesting texts, passing through geological strata.

Whenever I raise the Anthropocene with humanities-trained people, their first instinct is to critique it as a concept. It’s hard to buck that liberal arts and grad school training, but it’s an impulse to resist. It’s time to rethink the whole project of ‘humanist culture’, to which even us card-carrying anti-humanists still actually belong.

The Woodbine text makes some useful advances in that direction. But for me I think the project now is not to apply the old grad school bag o’tricks to the Anthropocene, but rather to apply the Anthropocene to a root-and-branch rethinking of how we make knowledge outside the sciences and social sciences.

Woodbine: “The naming of the Anthropocene comes not to announce humankind’s triumph but rather its exhaustion.” (3) This disposes with the most idiotic criticism of the Anthropocene, that it is ‘hubris’ to raise up the human to such a power that it could name a geological age. The Anthropocene actually does something very different. Its not the old rhetoric of a Promethean triumph over nature, but rather poses the question: “How are we to live in a ruin?” (4)

The geologist Paul Crutzen has succinctly listed the signs of the Anthropocene: deforestation, urbanization, mass extinctions, ocean acidification, loss of biodiversity and climate change. He thinks collective human labor is starting to transform the very lithosphere itself. Woodbines modulates this a bit, calling this “the Anthropocene biopolitical epoch.” (15) But that’s where I think the radical import of the Anthropocene gets lost. Those trained in the humanities are besotted with the idea of politics, attributing all sorts of magical agency to it. But really, up against the lithosphere, politics may be as uselessly superstructural as fine art, or as imaginary as the Gods of the religions.

Woodbine engagingly calls Marx ‘Captain Anthropocene.’ He is perhaps one of our great witness-conceptualizers about the moment when the Anthropocene really accelerated: “Proletarianizing us, as Marx called it, didn’t just separate us from our conditions of existence: it literally recreated how we live, setting up walls against any other way of living.” (12) Collective social labor made a second nature, over and against nature, but in part also alienating the human from that which produced it.

As I have argued elsewhere, the historical response to this has been to erect a third nature, over and against second nature, to overcome its alienating effects – but in the process producing new ones. That’s where we are now, with the growing disenchantment with the internet and all that.

Crisis is a tricky concept, as my New School colleague Janet Roitman ably explains in her book Anti-Crisis. If there’s no crisis then how can the critical be made to work? The self interest of the latter requires the perception of the former. As somebody once said, to a critic with a hammer, everything looks like a thumb.

The Anthropocene might subtly modulate the old rhetoric of crisis. Woodbine: “with the Anthropocene, the catastrophe is here in the form of the age itself, meaning our entire civilization, and its requisite way of life, is already a ruin.” (18) Crisis is not a thing or event in the world, it is the world.

This would be the profound shock of Crutzen’s provocation, that crisis is not merely political or even economic, but geological. Woodbine: “It’s crazy, like we’re reading Heidegger in the annals of the geological societies!” (19) Actually, here is where I would want to dissent from the Woodbine text. It is not that one finds Heidegger in the geological annals, but the reverse. Heidegger is only of any interest to the extent that one finds the geological in his thought, unrecognized.

It is striking how much of the grad school canon lets us down when it comes to the Anthropocene. It’s disorienting. Things once safely left unaddressed cannot be depended on. Latour: “to live in the Anthropocene is to live in a declared state of war.” But one has to ask whether Latour’s recent discovery of the Anthropocene is really all that consistent with his past work, which seems to me to concede too much to the vanity of humanists. It was only ever about part- or quasi- objects. It never really made the leap of recognizing the weakness of its own methods. Latour was a half-way house, a holding operation. As Donna Haraway pointed out a long time ago, Latour still has a thing for stories about great men waging great conflicts.

For Woodbine, the Anthropocene is the scene of a “metaphysical war.” (21) But it might be more interesting to think this the other way around. What if metaphysics was nothing more than a displaced echo of the Anthropocene? Metaphysics is not an essential key to it. Metaphysics is rather one of the pollutants. Metaphysics is just the off-gassing of the Anthropocene.

Let’s pause, too, over the war metaphor, so beloved of the cold war decision sciences. We need a new imaginary of the relation.

Still, Woodbine does get some mileage out of the dust of the old concepts. There is surely a crisis of state at the moment. The link between rationality and governance can no longer be finessed, it is finally abandoned. Governments become ad hoc reaction machines. Its what I call the spectacle of disintegration, where the state can (1) no longer orient itself in an historical time, (2) is now deceiving itself, and not just its subjects, and (3) wears out and fragments all of the ideological detritus that once sustained at least the illusion that state and history were one.

This is where Woodbine is right to point to the rhetorical figure of ‘resilience’ as a salient one. It’s a rejection of the old mastery trope. No longer is the state the collective subject of history bending the objects of nature to a collective will. Rather, it’s a rhetoric of connecting what were once objects and subjects together in webs and nets in constant flux. Now it’s all feedback loops and recursive, adaptive systems. At least in theory. For now in actuality, power is just disintegrating. Its new militarization is a sign of its lack of confidence. The game is up.

Woodbine chooses here a local, New York example. MoMA organized a show, just after the housing bubble burst, called Rising Currents. The brief was for architects and planners to show how the city (actually mostly Manhattan and the cool bits of Brooklyn) could be more resilient. One project imagines a restoration of the old oyster beds that used to dot the foreshores, as a kind of eco- econo- climate resilience virtuous circle.

When I heard someone not unconnected to Woodbine present this part of the Woodbine text at the Historical Materialism conference, the oyster bed project was met with hoots of laughter. But to me this just shows how alienated humanities-trained people are from design and urban planning as kinds of practice. It’s so much harder to even imagine what one might build in the Anthropocene than to divine its concept. And particularly hard to even imagine what one could build that would scale, that would work for the seven billion.

“The Anthropocene provides the urgency to draw together previously unrelated knowledges, practices, and technologies into a network of relation….” (26-27) One might struggle for and against certain forms such networks might take, or even as to whether they are really going to be ‘networks’ (that word which in our time is both ideological and yet so real). Maybe we would rather be infuriating swarms or packs than networks.

Woodbine: “In the Anthropocene, the critical gesture is finished. New Land, new horizons. Everything is to be reinvented.” (28) One might not want to put it in too declarative a style, but yes indeed. Perhaps its time to get to work re-inventing what humanities knowledge might be, and with what it connects, and how it connects.

The actual culture may be way ahead of us. On the one hand, the Anthropocene is the cultural unconscious. Every movie and tv show is about it, whether it knows it or not. We are “living in this end without end, an exhausted civilization dreams its apocalypse anew each morning…” (32) But a certain paralysis results from this.

Woodbine has a good analysis of this. The apocalypse means to uncover, reveal. For the messianic sects that arose out of Rome in decline, apocalyptic time was unidirectional and teleological. Things are in a state of incompletion. The meaning of the fragments around about one lies in the anticipation of the revealing of their unit. “As a result of this anticipation of an eschatological event through which things and beings will be saved from their decrepitude, the whole of reality is derealized. The disenchantment of the world has closely followed this strange derealization of the real…” (39) This is the problem: the apocalypse disconnects us from the world. As for that matter does the communist horizon, that partly secularized version of the temporal logic of apocalypse.

In this perspective, empire is that which holds back the purifying apocalypse. But in our time, apocalypse has been desacralized. It no longer promises redemption. Resilience is government under conditions of constant apocalypse. It’s a temporality which disperses apocalypse, but also takes away its redeeming power. It is to be endured. There’s no revelation imminent. “If we can understand Rome as catechon, warding off a single catastrophe in space and time (Armageddon), resilience multiplies and diffuses this structure across the whole globe…” (49) Salvation is unthinkable, resilience is all about survival.

And yet, curiously, resilience “maintains the homogenous time of a government without end.” (50) Empire wants to think it is not that which impedes the apocalypse which reveals meaning in its totality, after time breaks. Empire today wants to think it can be rubbery enough to be ‘sustainable’, to pass through multiple crises, but keep a homogenous, spectacular time ticking over. Power gets it that the old subject as master of the object ontology has to go, but strangely still maintains a universal homogenous time of petty and baseless things and their wondrous ‘networks.’

That, I think, is a wonderfully distilled analysis. I read Woodbine as wanting to reanimate the messianic rather than abandoning this whole conceptual tar pit. Hence: “Inhabiting the messianic means no longer waiting for the end of the world.” (55) The project is one of transforming lived time. The messianic becomes a practice of the here and now, a practice that might restore a shattered world, that restore being: “we must inhabit the desert.” (57)

There’s a Deleuzian note here, from the cinema books, for example, about believing in the world. “To enter messianic time is to believe in the world, in its possibilities of movement and intensities, and to create worlds.” (58) But as Woodbine acknowledges, this is worse than collapse of Rome. If it’s a ‘crisis’ it is not one that happens in time, it is rather a crisis of time.

Perhaps the worn-out old names so endlessly recycled in grad school are not going to be of much help to us. Are we really expecting, that if time appears now in a very new way, that those who survived the old time and became those who marked its tempo are going to talk about a time not their own? What if Walter Benjamin, Martin Heidegger or Carl Schmitt had nothing to say about the Anthropocene? When did humanists become the arch-conservatives? Insisting on ever occasion that the answers are always in the same old books? And always the same answers, no matter what the question.

On the one hand, it might be more interesting to pay attention to the organic intellectuals emerging out of more or less consciously Anthropocene practices. Woodbine thinks these are in two categories. Firstly, there’s the insurrections and occupations. Secondly, there’s the cultures of hacking, prepping, modding, which are often not ‘political’ in any overt sense, but which tend to have a firm notion that we need new practices of engaging with the world.

Woodbine wants to think insurrection and occupation as having an almost spiritual dimension. But perhaps the driver of the dissolution of legitimate political form really is going to be the food riot, as it was so often in the past as well. Here I want a much more vulgar read on Marx than Woodbine. We’re going to have to get our hands at least conceptually dirty.

Thinking alongside the organic intellectuals who are hacking and modding the interfaces to the old infrastructure strikes me as a necessary project. I agree with Benjamin Bratton that the question of our time is (as I hear him phrase it, at least): can the infrastructure of the old world produce a qualitatively new infrastructure? But thinking that problem would require a much wider collaboration among forms of knowledge and practice than I think Woodbine is prepared to entertain. It is not the case that only the Gods can save us.

The discourse of the humanities revels in the qualitative, and wants to see only the good side of the qualitative and the bad side of quantitative knowledge, viz: “To be able to judge a situation, or a being, you must introduce some standard of measurement, and hence reduce a living, breathing fullness to an abstracted mass of equivalents. A subject or an object is thus the stripped bare life that can be replaced.” (74)

The problem with this is that it doesn’t follow. There’s no necessary link between measuring something and thinking it replaceable. Climate science, as quantitative knowledge, is counter-factual example enough. On the other hand, the qualitative, as that which makes distinctions, is perfectly capable of making distinctions between who or what matters and what doesn’t, and is replaceable. ‘Bare life’, after all, is a Roman legal category, which has nothing to do with quantification.

Hence I am not too convinced that salvation alone lies in reworking a kind of affirmative ontology: “Whatever singularity is simply the inhabiting, really inhabiting, of the being that we already are…” (75) Rather, the problem might be the very notion that a philosophy can have such magical properties, if only one gets the incantation right. If philosophy was ever going to save us, it would have done so by now.

Most of our theories, it seems now in the Anthropocene, are not keys or tools, but rather symptoms. They are more part of the problem than the solution. I see no difference between keeping the Heidegger industry going and keeping the coal-fired power industry going. Except that the former has even more tenacious apologists.

But I like the Woodbine texts. I salute their attention to what matters. Theory has to know what time it is. Its time is the Anthropocene.

The New Abolitionism (The Nation)

Corte seletivo e fogo fazem Floresta Amazônica perder 54 milhões de toneladas de carbono por ano (Agência Fapesp)

JC e-mail 4973, de 16 de junho de 2014

A perda de carbono corresponde a 40% daquela causada pelo desmatamento total

Uma pesquisa conduzida por cientistas no Brasil e no Reino Unido quantificou o impacto causado na Floresta Amazônica por corte seletivo de árvores, destruição parcial pelo fogo e fragmentação decorrente de pastagens e plantações. Em conjunto, esses fatores podem estar subtraindo da floresta cerca de 54 milhões de toneladas de carbono por ano, lançados à atmosfera na forma de gases de efeito estufa. Esta perda de carbono corresponde a 40% daquela causada pelo desmatamento total.

O estudo, desenvolvido por 10 pesquisadores de 11 instituições do Brasil e do Reino Unido, foi publicado em maio na revista Global ChangeBiology.

“Os impactos da extração madeireira, do fogo e da fragmentação têm sido pouco percebidos, pois todos os esforços estão concentrados em evitar mais desmatamento. Essa postura deu grandes resultados na conservação da Amazônia brasileira, cuja taxa de desmatamento caiu em mais de 70% nos últimos 10 anos. No entanto, nosso estudo mostrou que esse outro tipo de degradação impacta severamente a floresta, com enormes quantidades de carbono antes armazenadas sendo perdidas para a atmosfera”, disse a brasileira Erika Berenguer, pesquisadora do Lancaster Environment Centre, da Lancaster University, no Reino Unido, primeira autora do estudo.

Segundo Joice Ferreira, pesquisadora da Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa Amazônia Oriental), em Belém (PA), e segunda autora do estudo, um dos motivos dessa degradação ser menos percebida é a dificuldade de monitoramento. “As imagens de satélite permitem detectar com muito mais facilidade as áreas totalmente desmatadas”, afirmou.

“Nossa pesquisa combinou imagens de satélite com estudo de campo. Fizemos uma avaliação, pixel a pixel [cada pixel na imagem corresponde a uma área de 900 metros quadrados], sobre o que aconteceu nos últimos 20 anos. Na pesquisa de campo, estudamos 225 parcelas (de 3 mil metros quadrados cada) em duas grandes regiões, com 3 milhões de hectares [30 mil quilômetros quadrados], utilizadas como modelo para estimar o que ocorre no conjunto da Amazônia”, explicou Ferreira.

As imagens de satélite, comparadas de dois em dois anos, possibilitaram que os pesquisadores construíssem um grande painel da degradação da floresta ao longo da linha do tempo, em uma escala de 20 anos. Na pesquisa de campo foram avaliadas as cicatrizes de fogo, de exploração madeireira e outras agressões. A combinação das duas investigações resultou na estimativa de estoque de carbono que se tem hoje.

Duas regiões foram estudadas in loco: Santarém e Paragominas, na porção leste da Amazônia, ambas submetidas a fortes pressões de degradação. Nessas duas regiões foram investigadas as 225 áreas.

“Coletamos dados de mais de 70 mil árvores e de mais de 5 mil amostras de solo, madeira morta e outros componentes dos chamados estoques de carbono. Foi o maior estudo já realizado até o momento sobre a perda de carbono de florestas tropicais devido à extração de madeira e fogos acidentais”, disse Ferreira.

Segundo ela, a pesquisa contemplou quatro dos cinco compartimentos de carbono cujo estudo é recomendado pelo Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC, na sigla em inglês), da Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU): biomassa acima do solo (plantas vivas), matéria orgânica morta, serapilheira (camada que mistura fragmentos de folhas, galhos e outros materiais orgânicos em decomposição) e solos (até 30 centímetros de profundidade). “Só não medimos o estoque de carbono nas raízes”, disse.

Para efeito de comparação, foram consideradas cinco categorias de florestas: primária (totalmente intacta); com exploração de madeira; queimada; com exploração de madeira e queimada; e secundária (aquela que foi completamente cortada e cresceu novamente).

As florestas que sofreram perturbação, por corte ou queimada, apresentaram de 18% a 57% menos carbono do que as florestas primárias. Uma área de floresta primária chegou a ter mais de 300 toneladas de carbono por hectare, enquanto as áreas de floresta queimada e explorada para madeira tiveram, no máximo, 200 toneladas por hectare, e, em média, menos de 100 toneladas de carbono por hectare.

Corte seletivo tradicional
O roteiro da degradação foi bem estabelecido pelos pesquisadores. O ponto de partida é, frequentemente, a extração de madeiras de alto valor comercial, como o mogno e o ipê; essas árvores são cortadas de forma seletiva, mas sua retirada impacta dezenas de árvores vizinhas.

Deflagrada a exploração, formam-se várias aberturas na cobertura vegetal, o que torna a floresta muito mais exposta ao sol e ao vento, e, portanto, muito mais seca e suscetível à propagação de fogos acidentais. O efeito é fortemente acentuado pela fragmentação da floresta em decorrência de pastagens e plantações.

A combinação dos efeitos pode, então, transformar a floresta em um mato denso, cheio de árvores e cipós de pequeno porte, mas com um estoque de carbono 40% menor do que o da floresta não perturbada.

“Existem, hoje, vários sistemas de corte seletivo, alguns um pouco menos impactantes do que outros. O sistema predominante, que foi aquele detectado em nosso estudo, associado ao diâmetro das árvores retiradas e à sua idade, pode subtrair da floresta uma enorme quantidade de carbono”, disse Plínio Barbosa de Camargo, diretor da Divisão de Funcionamento de Ecossistemas Tropicais do Centro de Energia Nuclear na Agricultura (Cena) da Universidade de São Paulo (USP) e membro da coordenação da área de Biologia da FAPESP, que também assinou o artigo publicado na Global ChangeBiology.

“Por mais que recomendemos no sentido contrário, na hora do manejo efetivo acabam sendo retiradas as árvores com diâmetros muito grandes, em menor quantidade. Em outra pesquisa, medimos a idade das árvores com carbono 14. Uma árvore cujo tronco apresente o diâmetro de um metro com certeza tem mais de 300 ou 400 anos. Não adianta retirar essa árvore e imaginar que ela possa ser substituída em 30, 40 ou 50 anos”, comentou Camargo.

A degradação em curso torna-se ainda mais preocupante no contexto da mudança climática global. “O próximo passo é entender melhor como essas florestas degradadas responderão a outras formas de distúrbios causados pelo homem, como períodos de seca mais severos e estações de chuva com maiores níveis de precipitação devido às mudanças climáticas”, afirmou o pesquisador britânico Jos Barlow, da Lancaster University, um dos coordenadores desse estudo e um dos responsáveis pelo Projeto Temático ECOFOR: Biodiversidade e funcionamento de ecossistemas em áreas alteradas pelo homem nas Florestas Amazônica e Atlântica.

Além dos pesquisadores já citados, assinaram também o artigo da Global ChangeBiologyToby Alan Gardner (Universityof Cambridge e Stockholm EnvironmentInstitute), Carlos Eduardo Cerri e Mariana Durigan (Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz/USP), Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de Aragão (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais e UniversityofExeter), Raimundo Cosme de Oliveira Junior (Embrapa Amazônia Oriental) e Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira (Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi).

O artigo A large-scalefieldassessmentofcarbon stocks in human-modified tropical forests (doi: 10.1111/gcb.12627), de Erika Berenguer e outros, pode ser lido em http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12627/full.

(Agência Fapesp)