Arquivo da tag: Mudanças climáticas

Os céticos estão perdendo espaço (Valor Econômico)

JC e-mail 4985, de 09 de julho de 2014

Artigo de Martin Wolf publicado no Valor Econômico

Não temos uma atmosfera chinesa ou americana. Temos uma atmosfera planetária. Não podemos fazer experimentos independentes com ela. Mas temos feito um experimento conjunto. Não foi uma decisão consciente: ocorreu em consequência da Revolução Industrial. Mas estamos decidindo conscientemente não suspendê-lo.

Realizar experimentos irreversíveis com o único planeta que temos é irresponsável. Só seria racional se recusar a fazer alguma coisa para mitigar os riscos se tivéssemos certeza de que a ciência da mudança climática provocada pelo homem é um embuste.

Qualquer leitor razoavelmente aberto a novas ideias do “Summary for Policymakers” do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudança Climática chegaria à conclusão que qualquer certeza desse tipo sobre a ciência seria absurda. É racional perguntar se os benefícios da mitigação superam os custos. É irracional negar que é plausível a mudança climática provocada pelo homem.

Nessas discussões e, aliás, na política climática, os Estados Unidos desempenham papel central, por quatro motivos. Em primeiro lugar, os EUA ainda são o segundo maior emissor mundial de dióxido de carbono, embora sua participação de 14% do total mundial em 2012 o situe bem atrás dos 27% da China. Em segundo lugar, as emissões americanas per capita correspondem aproximadamente ao dobro das emissões das principais economias da Europa ocidental ou do Japão. Seria impossível convencer as economias emergentes a reduzir as emissões se os EUA não aderissem. Em terceiro lugar, os EUA dispõem de recursos científicos e tecnológicos insuperáveis, que serão necessários para que o mundo possa enfrentar o desafio de associar baixas emissões à prosperidade para todos. Finalmente, os EUA abrigam o maior número de opositores ativistas apaixonados e engajados.

Diante desse quadro, dois acontecimentos recentes são estimulantes para os que (como eu) acreditam que o senso comum mais elementar nos obriga a agir. Um deles foi a publicação do “President’s Climate Action Plan” no mês passado. Esse plano abrange a mitigação, a adaptação e a cooperação mundial. Seu objetivo é reduzir até 2020 as emissões de gases-estufa para níveis 17% inferiores aos de 2005.

O outro acontecimento, também ocorrido no mês passado, foi a publicação de um relatório – o “Risky Business” – por um poderoso grupo bipartidário que incluía o ex-prefeito de Nova York, Michael Bloomberg, os ex-secretários do Tesouro dos EUA, Hank Paulson e Robert Rubin, e o ex-secretário de Estado George Shultz.

Mas precisamos moderar nossa alegria. Mesmo se o governo implementar seu plano com êxito, ao explorar sua autoridade reguladora, será um começo apenas modesto. As concentrações de dióxido de carbono, metano e óxido nitroso subiram para níveis sem precedentes do último período de pelo menos 800 mil anos, muito antes do surgimento do “Homo sapiens”. Pelo nosso ritmo atual, o aumento será muito maior até o fim do século, e os impactos sobre o clima tenderão a ser grandes, irreversíveis e talvez catastróficos. Aumentos da média da temperatura de 5° C acima dos níveis pré-industriais são concebíveis à luz do nosso ritmo atual. O planeta seria diferente do que é hoje.

“Risky Business” revela o que isso poderia significar para os EUA. O documento se concentra nos danos aos imóveis e à infraestrutura litorâneos decorrentes da elevação dos níveis do mar. Examina os riscos de tempestades mais fortes e mais frequentes. Considera possíveis mudanças na agricultura e na demanda por energia, bem como o impacto da alta das temperaturas sobre a produtividade e a saúde pública. algumas áreas do país poderão se tornar quase inabitáveis.

O que faz do relatório um documento importante é que ele expõe a questão, corretamente, como um problema de gestão de risco. O objetivo tem de ser eliminar os riscos localizados na extremidade da distribuição das possíveis consequências. A maneira de fazer isso é mudar o comportamento. Ninguém pode nos vender seguros contra mudanças planetárias. Já vimos o que o risco remoto, localizado na extremidade da distribuição de riscos, significa em finanças. No âmbito do clima, as extremidades são mais encorpadas e tendentes a ser muito mais prejudiciais.

A questão é se uma coisa real e importante pode derivar desses novos começos modestos. Pode sim, embora deter o aumento das concentrações de gases-estufa é coisa que exige muito esforço.

Sempre pensei que a maneira de avançar seria por meio de um acordo mundial de limitação das emissões, à base de alguma combinação entre impostos e cotas. Atualmente considero esse enfoque inútil, como demonstra o fracasso do Protocolo de Kyoto de 1997 em promover qualquer verdadeira mudança na nossa trajetória de emissões. O debate político em favor de políticas públicas substanciais terá sucesso se, e somente se, duas coisas acontecerem: em primeiro lugar, as pessoas precisam acreditar que o impacto da mudança climática pode ser ao mesmo tempo grande e caro; em segundo lugar, elas precisam acreditar que os custos da mitigação serão toleráveis. Esse último fator, por sua vez, exige o desenvolvimento de tecnologias confiáveis e exequíveis para um futuro de baixos teores de carbono. Assim que ficar demonstrada a viabilidade de um futuro desse tipo, a adoção das políticas necessárias será mais fácil.

Nesse contexto, os dois novos documentos se corroboram mutuamente. “Risky Business” documenta os custos potenciais para os americanos da mudança climática não mitigada. O foco do governo em padrões reguladores é, portanto, uma grande parte da resposta, principalmente porque os padrões certamente obrigarão a uma aceleração da inovação na produção e no uso da energia. Ao reforçar o apoio à pesquisa fundamental, o governo americano poderá desencadear ondas de inovação benéficas em nossos sistemas de energia e de transportes marcados pelo desperdício. Se promovida com urgência suficiente, essa medida também poderá transformar o contexto das negociações mundiais. Além disso, em vista da falta de mitigação até esta altura, uma grande parte da reação deverá consistir em adaptação. Mais uma vez, o engajamento dos EUA deverá fornecer mais exemplos de medidas que funcionam.

Secretamente esperava que o tempo desse razão aos opositores. Só assim a ausência de resposta a esse desafio se revelaria sem custo. Mas é pouco provável que tenhamos essa sorte.

Continuar no nosso caminho atual deverá gerar danos irreversíveis e onerosos. Existe uma possibilidade mais alvissareira. Talvez se mostre possível reduzir o custo da mitigação em tal medida que ele se torne politicamente palatável. Talvez, também, nos conscientizemos muito mais dos riscos. Nenhuma das duas hipóteses parece provável. Mas, se esses dois relatórios efetivamente motivarem uma mudança na postura dos EUA, as probabilidades de escapar do perigo terão aumentado, embora talvez tarde demais. Isso não merece dois, muito menos três vivas. Mas poderíamos tentar um. (Tradução de Rachel Warszawski)

Martin Wolf é editor e principal analista econômico do FT.

(Valor Econômico)
http://www.valor.com.br/opiniao/3607960/os-ceticos-estao-perdendo-espaco#ixzz36yVZ5PEw

Mudança do clima e ação humana alteram litoral no Brasil (Fapesp)

Barreira de proteção para proteger a praia da força das ondas. Estudo realizado por pesquisadores de São Paulo e de Pernambuco detalhou a vulnerabilidade da costa nos dois estados (foto: Eduardo Siegle)
04/07/2014

Por Fabio Reynol

Agência FAPESP – As zonas costeiras costumam sofrer alterações provocadas por elementos naturais, como elevação do nível do mar e o regime de ondas a que são submetidas. Com as mudanças climáticas, os elementos naturais que influenciam nas alterações das praias, chamados de condições forçantes, devem se intensificar e modificar o desenho das terras costeiras.

Pesquisa conduzida em São Paulo e Pernambuco, que investigou os impactos sofridos por quatro praias nos dois estados, concluiu, no entanto, que os efeitos da ação humana podem ser ainda mais fortes do que os da natureza.

Executado com apoio da FAPESP e da Fundação de Amparo à Ciência e Tecnologia do Estado de Pernambuco (Facepe), o trabalho é resultado de uma chamada de propostas lançada no âmbito de um acordo de cooperação entre as instituições.

A pesquisa “Vulnerabilidade da zona costeira dos estados de São Paulo e Pernambuco: situação atual e projeções para cenários de mudanças climáticas” durou três anos, período em que foram estudadas as praias paulistas de Ilha Comprida, no município de mesmo nome, e de Massaguaçu, em Caraguatatuba, e as pernambucanas praia da Piedade, em Jaboatão dos Guararapes, e praia do Paiva, em Cabo de Santo Agostinho.

“Escolhemos praias com características diferentes para fazer as comparações. Massaguaçu, no litoral norte paulista, e Jaboatão, na região metropolitana do Recife, são praias urbanas, enquanto Ilha Comprida e Paiva ficam em regiões menos habitadas”, disse o coordenador do projeto, Eduardo Siegle, professor do Instituto Oceanográfico da Universidade de São Paulo (IO/USP), que dividiu a liderança dos trabalhos com a professora Tereza Araújo, da Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE).

A pesquisa analisou como as mudanças climáticas globais provocam alterações na costa. Uma das condições forçantes é o clima de ondas. Segundo Siegle, as mudanças climáticas provocam alterações nos regimes de ventos, principais influenciadores na formação das ondas. Com direção e força alteradas, as ondas podem redesenhar o contorno das praias, refazendo sua morfologia.

“As ondas redefinem os depósitos de sedimentos e as praias atingem um equilíbrio dinâmico mediante as condições a que estão sujeitas; pode ocorrer erosão em alguns pontos e deposição de material em outros”, disse Siegle, acrescentando que uma praia pode encolher, mudar de formato e até aumentar de tamanho.

Outro fator decorrente das mudanças climáticas é a elevação do nível do mar, que leva as ondas a ter maior alcance e atingir novos pontos da costa. Essa condição costuma aumentar erosões e provocar inundações de áreas próximas à costa.

Um ponto confirmado pelos resultados obtidos foi o fato de que, em algumas regiões, as ações antrópicas no litoral exerceram mais influência nessas alterações que as forças da natureza. “Acompanhamos imagens de décadas. Nesse período, os impactos de uma ocupação mal feita do litoral podem ser muito maiores do que aqueles provocados por mudanças climáticas”, disse.

Processos de urbanização que impermeabilizam áreas praianas necessárias ao movimento de sedimentos, por exemplo, costumam provocar erosões de forma mais acentuada. No estudo, a ação humana figurou entre os principais influenciadores da vulnerabilidade costeira.

Observação dos processos costeiros

O trabalho também se debruçou sobre as mudanças históricas nas condições forçantes naturais. Para isso, a equipe lançou mão de modelos computacionais que simularam essas forças e seus efeitos ao longo das últimas décadas. Outro método de investigação foi a coleta de dados em campo. Os pesquisadores fizeram levantamentos morfológicos, que analisam o formato das praias e mediram parâmetros de suas ondas.

A medição de variáveis físicas na região costeira exigiu a aplicação de métodos inovadores para colocar instrumentos nas zonas de arrebentação, relatou Siegle. A equipe acoplou um perfilador acústico de correntes marinhas Doppler (ADCP) em uma moto aquática com um trenó.

O equipamento fornece parâmetros como velocidade das correntes na coluna d’água, altura, direção e período das ondas. A moto aquática foi usada para levantamentos batimétricos e hidrodinâmicos em áreas rasas sujeitas à arrebentação de ondas, nas quais embarcações convencionais não conseguem navegar.

Uma série de imagens aéreas registradas ao longo de aproximadamente 40 anos foi outra importante fonte de dados para a pesquisa. Foram acessados arquivos do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (Inpe) e do próprio Instituto Oceanográfico da USP. Por meio de pontos georreferenciados marcados sobre as imagens, foi possível acompanhar as alterações na faixa costeira ao longo do tempo.

Com os dados coletados pelos diferentes métodos, o grupo estabeleceu nove indicadores de vulnerabilidade: posição da linha de costa, largura da praia, elevação do terreno, obras de engenharia costeira, permeabilidade do solo, vegetação, presença de rios ou desembocaduras, taxa de ocupação e configurações ao largo. Este último diz respeito à área de mar aberto adjacente à região costeira em estudo.

Sistemas praiais mais largos tendem a ser mais estáveis que faixas estreitas, portanto menos vulneráveis. A presença de vegetação bem desenvolvida na zona pós-praia sugere um cenário de baixa erosão e rara intrusão de água salina.

A vulnerabilidade à inundação pode ser estimada, entre outros fatores, pela permeabilidade do solo. Quanto menos permeável for o solo, mais sujeita à inundação será a área. E por alterar simultaneamente vários desses fatores, a taxa de ocupação da costa é um dos mais preponderantes indicadores de vulnerabilidade de uma área costeira.

Os indicadores foram depois tabulados e classificados de acordo com três graus de vulnerabilidade: alta, média ou baixa, para cada ano analisado. Registrou-se a evolução da vulnerabilidade de cada praia estudada e os pesquisadores chegaram a várias conclusões.

“Entre elas eu destacaria a importância da ocupação humana no litoral na elevação da vulnerabilidade da praia”, disse Siegle. As praias urbanas nos dois estados apresentaram situação de vulnerabilidade maior que aquelas com taxa de ocupação menor.

A aplicação desse método foi detalhada na tese de doutorado de Paulo Henrique Gomes de Oliveira Sousa, intitulada “Vulnerabilidade à erosão costeira no litoral de São Paulo: interação entre processos costeiros e atividades antrópicas”, defendida em 2013 no Programa de Pós-Graduação em Oceanografia do IOUSP.

O projeto de pesquisa resultou em cinco trabalhos de iniciação científica, quatro dissertações de mestrado e duas teses de doutorado, uma com bolsa FAPESP – Cássia Pianca Barroso desenvolveu o trabalho “Uso de imagens de vídeo para a extração de variáveis costeiras: processos de curto a médio termo”.

De acordo com Siegle, vários artigos estão em fase de redação e quatro já foram publicados, entre elesEvolução da vulnerabilidade à erosão costeira na Praia de Massaguaçú (SP), Brasil noJournal of Integrated Coastal Management e Vulnerability assessment of Massaguaçú Beach (SE Brazil) na Ocean & Coastal Management.

Parceria São Paulo-Pernambuco

Além dos resultados científicos, o projeto apresentou como fruto a aproximação entre instituições de pesquisa paulistas e pernambucanas. “A interação foi muito grande e pesquisadores pernambucanos participaram das pesquisas em campo em São Paulo e vice-versa”, contou Siegle.

A aproximação dos grupos levou a outro trabalho conjunto FAPESP-FACEPE, o projeto “Suscetibilidade e resistência de sistemas estuarinos urbanos a mudanças globais: balanço hidro-sedimentar, elevação do nível do mar, resposta a eventos extremos”, coordenado pelos professores Carlos Schettini (UFPE) e Rubens Cesar Lopes Ferreira (IO/USP).

A execução do projeto coordenado por Siegle e Tereza Araújo ainda levou à formação do Grupo de Trabalho “Respostas da Linha de Costa” que incorpora o Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia Ambientes Tropicais Marinhos (AmbTropic) , sediado no Instituto de Geociências da Universidade Federal da Bahia e apoiado pelo Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) e pela Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado da Bahia (Fapesb).

NASA launches carbon mission to watch Earth breathe (Science Daily)

Date: July 2, 2014

Source: NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Summary: NASA successfully launched its first spacecraft dedicated to studying atmospheric carbon dioxide on July 1, 2014. OCO-2 soon will begin a minimum two-year mission to locate Earth’s sources of and storage places for atmospheric carbon dioxide, the leading human-produced greenhouse gas responsible for warming our world, and a critical component of the planet’s carbon cycle.

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2, NASA’s first mission dedicated to studying carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere, lifts off from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, at 2:56 a.m. Pacific Time, July 2, 2014. The two-year mission will help scientists unravel key mysteries about carbon dioxide.

Credit: NASA/Bill Ingalls

NASA successfully launched its first spacecraft dedicated to studying atmospheric carbon dioxide at 2:56 a.m. PDT (5:56 a.m. EDT) Tuesday (July 1, 2014).

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) raced skyward from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, on a United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket. Approximately 56 minutes after the launch, the observatory separated from the rocket’s second stage into an initial 429-mile (690-kilometer) orbit. The spacecraft then performed a series of activation procedures, established communications with ground controllers and unfurled its twin sets of solar arrays. Initial telemetry shows the spacecraft is in excellent condition.

OCO-2 soon will begin a minimum two-year mission to locate Earth’s sources of and storage places for atmospheric carbon dioxide, the leading human-produced greenhouse gas responsible for warming our world, and a critical component of the planet’s carbon cycle.

“Climate change is the challenge of our generation,” said NASA Administrator Charles Bolden. “With OCO-2 and our existing fleet of satellites, NASA is uniquely qualified to take on the challenge of documenting and understanding these changes, predicting the ramifications, and sharing information about these changes for the benefit of society.”

OCO-2 will take NASA’s studies of carbon dioxide and the global carbon cycle to new heights. The mission will produce the most detailed picture to date of natural sources of carbon dioxide, as well as their “sinks” — places on Earth’s surface where carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere. The observatory will study how these sources and sinks are distributed around the globe and how they change over time.

“This challenging mission is both timely and important,” said Michael Freilich, director of the Earth Science Division of NASA’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington. “OCO-2 will produce exquisitely precise measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations near Earth’s surface, laying the foundation for informed policy decisions on how to adapt to and reduce future climate change.”

Carbon dioxide sinks are at the heart of a longstanding scientific puzzle that has made it difficult for scientists to accurately predict how carbon dioxide levels will change in the future and how those changing concentrations will affect Earth’s climate.

“Scientists currently don’t know exactly where and how Earth’s oceans and plants have absorbed more than half the carbon dioxide that human activities have emitted into our atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial era,” said David Crisp, OCO-2 science team leader at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. “Because of this, we cannot predict precisely how these processes will operate in the future as climate changes. For society to better manage carbon dioxide levels in our atmosphere, we need to be able to measure the natural source and sink processes.”

Precise measurements of the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide are needed because background levels vary by less than two percent on regional to continental scales. Typical changes can be as small as one-third of one percent. OCO-2 measurements are designed to measure these small changes clearly.

During the next 10 days, the spacecraft will go through a checkout process and then begin three weeks of maneuvers that will place it in its final 438-mile (705-kilometer), near-polar operational orbit at the head of the international Afternoon Constellation, or “A-Train,” of Earth-observing satellites. The A-Train, the first multi-satellite, formation flying “super observatory” to record the health of Earth’s atmosphere and surface environment, collects an unprecedented quantity of nearly simultaneous climate and weather measurements.

OCO-2 science operations will begin about 45 days after launch. Scientists expect to begin archiving calibrated mission data in about six months and plan to release their first initial estimates of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in early 2015.

The observatory will uniformly sample the atmosphere above Earth’s land and waters, collecting more than 100,000 precise individual measurements of carbon dioxide over Earth’s entire sunlit hemisphere every day. Scientists will use these data in computer models to generate maps of carbon dioxide emission and uptake at Earth’s surface on scales comparable in size to the state of Colorado. These regional-scale maps will provide new tools for locating and identifying carbon dioxide sources and sinks.

OCO-2 also will measure a phenomenon called solar-induced fluorescence, an indicator of plant growth and health. As plants photosynthesize and take up carbon dioxide, they fluoresce and give off a tiny amount of light that is invisible to the naked eye. Because more photosynthesis translates into more fluorescence, fluorescence data from OCO-2 will help shed new light on the uptake of carbon dioxide by plants

OCO-2 is a NASA Earth System Science Pathfinder Program mission managed by JPL for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington. Orbital Sciences Corporation in Dulles, Virginia, built the spacecraft bus and provides mission operations under JPL’s leadership. The science instrument was built by JPL, based on the instrument design co-developed for the original OCO mission by Hamilton Sundstrand in Pomona, California. NASA’s Launch Services Program at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida is responsible for launch management. JPL is managed for NASA by the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

For more information about OCO-2, visit: http://oco.jpl.nasa.gov

OCO-2 is the second of five NASA Earth science missions scheduled to launch into space this year, the most new Earth-observing mission launches in one year in more than a decade. NASA monitors Earth’s vital signs from land, air and space with a fleet of satellites and ambitious airborne and ground-based observation campaigns. NASA develops new ways to observe and study Earth’s interconnected natural systems with long-term data records and computer analysis tools to better see how our planet is changing. The agency shares this unique knowledge with the global community and works with institutions in the United States and around the world that contribute to understanding and protecting our home planet.

For more information about NASA’s Earth science activities in 2014, visit:http://www.nasa.gov/earthrightnow

Follow OCO-2 on Twitter at: https://twitter.com/IamOCO2

Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided by NASA/Jet Propulsion LaboratoryNote: Materials may be edited for content and length.

Rachel Biderman: Agropecuária está se tornando a principal fonte de emissões brasileiras (Carbono Brasil)

02/7/2014 – 10h03

por Maura Campanili, do IPAM

Rachel Rachel Biderman: Agropecuária está se tornando a principal fonte de emissões brasileiras

A produção agropecuária de baixo carbono é importante para que o Brasil cumpra suas metas de redução de emissões e colabora para que o produtor consiga adequação ambiental, mas pode ser também um caminho para abrir portas e aumentar a competitividade no mercado internacional, principalmente na Europa e nos Estados Unidos.

Uma ferramenta que pode ajudar o produtor brasileiro a acessar esses benefícios é o Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHG Protocol) Agropecuária, primeiro instrumento voluntário para medir emissões em propriedades rurais, cuja primeira versão foi lançada em primeira mão no Brasil, no final de maio.

O instrumento foi desenvolvido por meio de uma parceria entre o WRI, a Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa) e a Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp), levando em consideração as condições brasileiras. Segundo Rachel Biderman, diretora Executiva do WRI Brasil, “ações desse tipo também ajudam a criar uma cultura de gestão, contribuindo para a solução do problema das mudanças climáticas”.

Em entrevista para a Clima e Floresta, Rachel, que também é professora responsável por módulo de meio ambiente do MBA em Gestão da Sustentabilidade e coordenadora do curso de extensão da Fundação Getúlio Vargas de “Gestão para o Baixo Carbono”, explica porque é importante reduzir as emissões da agricultura no Brasil.

Clima e Floresta – Qual a importância do combate às emissões de gases de efeito estufa na agricultura brasileira?

Rachel Biderman – O Brasil cada vez mais se consolida como grande fonte de alimentos para o mundo. Ao mesmo tempo, estamos entre os maiores emissores de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) do planeta. Considerando a redução das emissões em mudanças do uso da terra, devido à queda dos desmatamentos, a agropecuária está se tornando a principal fonte de emissões brasileiras e já representa 29,7% das emissões brutas brasileiras em CO2e.

Clima e Floresta – Como a agricultura emite GEE?

Biderman – O setor agropecuário gera emissões em função da fermentação entérica dos animais criados; do manejo de dejetos animais; do cultivo de arroz; da queima de resíduos agrícolas e dos solos agrícolas, estas decorrentes da fertilização nitrogenada e de organossolos cultivados. Há também emissões relativas a atividades associadas ao setor, que incluem a conversão de uso do solo – por exemplo, de florestas para pastagens ou de um tipo de lavoura em outro -, e outras relacionadas à produção de energia.

Clima e Floresta – O que é o GHG Protocol Agrícola e como ele pode colaborar para diminuir as emissões?

Biderman – Trata-se de um conjunto de dois instrumentos principais: as Diretrizes e a Ferramenta de Cálculo de Emissões de GEE no setor Agropecuário. Esses instrumentos permitem aos produtores rurais conhecer melhor o perfil das suas emissões de gases de efeito estufa e desenvolver planos de redução mitigando seus impactos sobre o clima. Esses instrumentos permitirão aos produtores rurais contribuir diretamente para o cumprimento dos objetivos do Plano ABC (Agricultura de Baixo Carbono) e para que mecanismos financeiros adequados sejam alocados para essa atividade sustentável.

Clima e Floresta – A quem o GHG Protocol é destinado?

Biderman – Produtores rurais de qualquer porte.

Clima e Floresta – Pequenos agricultores, assentamentos rurais, populações tradicionais podem participar? Como?

Biderman – Os instrumentos se aplicam a qualquer tipo de produção agropecuária. O WRI Brasil organizará projeto para treinar empresas e interessados para o uso dessas ferramentas.

Clima e Floresta – Além da questão das emissões, há outros benefícios na adoção de uma agricultura de baixo carbono?

Biderman – As empresas que adotarem as diretrizes e ferramenta de cálculo do GHG Protocol terão algumas vantagens competitivas. Entre elas podemos citar: Entender riscos operacionais e de reputação; identificar oportunidades de redução de emissões; implantar metas de redução e monitorar a performance; melhorar a reputação e transparência através da divulgação pública de suas emissões de GEE; colher os frutos dos benefícios associados à redução de emissões, como conservação de energia, ampliação de produtividade, melhora na qualidade do solo e da água; preparar-se para regime de quotas e cumprimento legal; antecipar-se para um potencial mercado de carbono.

* Publicado originalmente no site CarbonoBrasil.

(CarbonoBrasil)

Key to adaptation limits of ocean dwellers: Simpler organisms better suited for climate change (Science Daily)

Date: July 1, 2014

Source: Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research

Summary: The simpler a marine organism is structured, the better it is suited for survival during climate change, researchers have discovered this in a new meta-study. For the first time biologists studied the relationship between the complexity of life forms and the ultimate limits of their adaptation to a warmer climate.

The temperature windows of some ocean dwellers as a comparison: the figures for green algae, seaweed and thermophilic bacteria were determined in the laboratory. The fish data stem from investigations in the ocean. Credit: Sina Löschke, Alfred Wegener Institute

The simpler a marine organism is structured, the better it is suited for survival during climate change. Scientists of the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, discovered this in a new meta-study, which appears today in the research journal Global Change Biology. For the first time biologists studied the relationship between the complexity of life forms and the ultimate limits of their adaptation to a warmer climate. While unicellular bacteria and archaea are able to live even in hot, oxygen-deficient water, marine creatures with a more complex structure, such as animals and plants, reach their growth limits at a water temperature of 41 degrees Celsius. This temperature threshold seems to be insurmountable for their highly developed metabolic systems.

The current IPCC Assessment Report shows that marine life forms respond very differently to the increasing water temperature and the decreasing oxygen content of the ocean. “We now asked ourselves why this is so. Why do bacteria, for example, still grow at temperatures of up to 90 degrees Celsius, while animals and plants reach their limits at the latest at a temperature of 41 degrees Celsius,” says Dr. Daniela Storch, biologist in the Ecophysiology Department at the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) and first author of the current study.

Since years Storch and her colleagues have been investigating the processes that result in animals having a certain temperature threshold up to which they can develop and reproduce. The scientists found that the reason for this is their cardiovascular system. They were able to show in laboratory experiments that this transport system is the first to fail in warmer water. Blood circulation supplies all cells and organs of a living organism with oxygen, but can only do so up to a certain maximum temperature. Beyond this threshold, the transport capacity of this system is no longer sufficient; the animal can then only sustain performance for a short time. Based on this, the biologists had suspected at an early date that there is a relationship between the complex structure of an organism and its limited ability to continue to function in increasingly warm water.

“In our study, therefore, we examined the hypothesis that the complexity could be the key that determines the ultimate adaptability of diverse life forms, from marine archaea to animals, to different living conditions in the course of evolutionary history. That means: the simpler the structure of an organism, the more resistant it should be,” explains the biologist. If this assumption is true, life forms consisting of a single simply structured cell would be much more resistant to high temperatures than life forms whose cell is very complex, such as algae, or whose bodies consist of millions of cells. Hence, the tolerance and adaptability thresholds of an organism type would always be found at its highest level of complexity. Among the smallest organisms, unicellular algae are the least resistant because they have highly complex cell organelles such as chloroplasts for photosynthesis. Unicellular protozoans also have cell organelles, but they are simpler in their structure. Bacteria and archaea entirely lack these organelles.

To test this assumption, the scientists evaluated over 1000 studies on the adaptability of marine life forms. Starting with simple archaea lacking a nucleus, bacteria and unicellular algae right through to animals and plants, they found the species in each case with the highest temperature tolerance within their group and determined their complexity. In the end, it became apparent that the assumed functional principle seems to apply: the simpler the structure, the more heat-tolerant the organism type.

But: “The adaptation limit of an organism is not only dependent on its upper temperature threshold, but also on its ability to cope with small amounts of oxygen. While many of the bacteria and archaea can survive at low oxygen concentrations or even without oxygen, most animals and plants require a higher minimum concentration,” explains Dr. Daniela Storch. The majority of the studies examined show that if the oxygen concentration in the water drops below a certain value, the oxygen supply for cells and tissues collapses after a short time.

The new research results also provide evidence that the body size of an organism plays a decisive role concerning adaptation limits. Smaller animal species or smaller individuals of an animal species can survive at lower oxygen concentration levels and higher temperatures than the larger animals.

“We observe among fish in the North Sea that larger individuals of a species are affected first at extreme temperatures. In connection with climate warming, there is generally a trend that smaller species replace larger species in a region. Today, however, plants and animals in the warmest marine environments already live at their tolerance limit and will probably not be able to adapt. If warming continues, they will migrate to cooler areas and there are no other tolerant animal and plant species that could repopulate the deserted habitats,” says Prof. Dr. Hans-Otto Pörtner of the Alfred Wegener Institute. The biologist initiated the current study and is the coordinating lead author of the chapter “Ocean systems” in the Fifth Assessment Report.

The new meta-study shows that their complex structure sets tighter limits for multicellular organisms, i.e. animals and plants, within which they can adapt to new living conditions. Individual animal species can reduce their body size, reduce their metabolism or generate more haemoglobin in order to survive in warmer, oxygen-deficient water. However, marine animals and plants are fundamentally not able to survive in conditions exceeding the temperature threshold of 41 degrees Celsius.

In contrast, simple unicellular organisms like bacteria benefit from warmer sea water. They reproduce and spread. “Communities of species in the ocean change as a result of this shift in living conditions. In the future animals and plants will have problems to survive in the warmest marine regions and archaea, bacteria as well as protozoa will spread in these areas. There are already studies showing that unicellular algae will be replaced by other unicellular organisms in the warmest regions of the ocean,” says Prof. Dr. Hans-Otto Pörtner. The next step for the authors is addressing the question regarding the role the complexity of species plays for tolerance and adaptation to the third climatic factor in the ocean, i.e. acidification, which is caused by rising carbon dioxide emissions and deposition of this greenhouse gas in seawater.

Living at the limit

For generations ocean dwellers have adapted to the conditions in their home waters: to the prevailing temperature, the oxygen concentration and the degree of water acidity. They grow best and live longest under these living conditions. However, not all creatures that live together in an ecosystem have the same preferences. The Antarctic eelpout, for instance, lives at its lower temperature limit and has to remain in warmer water layers of the Southern Ocean. If it enters cold water, the temperature quickly becomes too cold for it. The Atlantic cod in the North Sea, by contrast, would enjoy colder water as large specimens do not feel comfortable in temperatures over ten degrees Celsius. At such threshold values scientists refer to a temperature window: every poikilothermic ocean dweller has an upper and lower temperature limit at which it can live and grow. These “windows” vary in scope. Species in temperate zones like the North Sea generally have a broader temperature window. This is due to the extensively pronounced seasons in these regions. That means the animals have to withstand both warm summers and cold winters.

The temperature window of living creatures in the tropics or polar regions, in comparison, is two to four times smaller than that of North Sea dwellers. On the other hand, they have adjusted to extreme living conditions. Antarctic icefish species, for example, can live in water as cold as minus 1.8 degrees Celsius. Their blood contains antifreeze proteins. In addition, they can do without haemoglobin because their metabolism is low and a surplus of oxygen is available. For this reason their blood is thinner and the fish need less energy to pump it through the body — a perfect survival strategy. But: icefish live at the limit. If the temperature rises by a few degrees Celsius, the animals quickly reach their limits.

Journal Reference:

  1. Daniela Storch, Lena Menzel, Stephan Frickenhaus, Hans-O. Pörtner. Climate sensitivity across marine domains of life: limits to evolutionary adaptation shape species interactionsGlobal Change Biology, 2014; DOI:10.1111/gcb.12645

*   *   *

Starting With the Oceans, Single-Celled Organisms Will Re-Inherit the Earth (Motherboard)

Written by BEN RICHMOND

July 1, 2014 // 07:41 PM CET

I’ll be the first to cop to being guilty of multi-celled chauvinism: Having complex cells with organelles, which form complex systems allowing you to breathe, achieve consciousness, play volleyball, etc, is pretty much as good as it gets. While we enjoy all these advantages now, though, single-celled, simple organisms are just biding their time. More readily adaptable than us multi-celled organisms, it’s really a simple, single-celled world, and we’re just passing through.

Case in point: the oceans. A team of German researchers just published a paper in the journal Global Change Biology that found that the more simple an organism is, the better off it’s going to be as the oceans warm. Trout will die out, whales will fail, but unicellular bacteria and archaea (a type of microorganism) are going to flourish.

Animals can only develop and reproduce up to a temperature threshold in the water of about 41 degrees Celsius, or 105 degrees Fahrenheit. Beyond this, the cardiovascular system can’t deliver necessary oxygen throughout the body. Even as individual animal species can develop smaller bodies or generate more hemoglobin to survive in warmer and oxygen deficient water, the highly developed metabolic systems that allow for things like eyeballs can’t get over the temperature threshold and the other hurdles it brings, like decreasing oxygen.

Image: Sina Löschke, Alfred Wegener Institute

“The adaptation limit of an organism is not only dependent on its upper temperature threshold, but also on its ability to cope with small amounts of oxygen,”said Daniela Storch, the study’s lead author . “While many of the bacteria and archaea can survive at low oxygen concentrations or even without oxygen, most animals and plants require a higher minimum concentration.”

That’s part of the reason that unicellular organisms are found in the most dramatic settings that Earth has to offer: from Antarctic lakes that were buried under glaciers for 100,000 years, to super-hot hydrothermal vents on the ocean floor, acidic pools in Yellowstone, and the Atacama desert in Chile. When we look around the solar system, we see environments that can’t support complex, multicellular life, but still hold out hope that unicellular life has found a way in Europa’s unseen seas, or below the surface of Mars.

But as the Earth’s climate changes, and the ocean gets warmer and more acidic, complexity goes from an asset to a liability, and simplicity reigns.

“Communities of species in the ocean change as a result of this shift in living conditions. In the future animals and plants will have problems to survive in the warmest marine regions and archaea, bacteria as well as protozoa will spread in these areas,” said Dr. Hans-Otto Pörtner, one of the study’s co-authors. “There are already studies showing that unicellular algae will be replaced by other unicellular organisms in the warmest regions of the ocean.”

The story of life on Earth is, if nothing else, symmetrical. Three and a half billion years ago, prokaryotic cells showed up, without a nucleus or other organelles. Complex, multicellular life emerged with an increase in biomass and decrease in global surface temperature half a billion years ago. In another billion and a half years that complex multicellular life died back out, leaving the planet to the so-called simpler forms of life, as they basked in the light of a much brighter Sun. The best-case scenario is that life lasts until the Sun runs out of fuel, swells into a red giant,and vaporizes whatever is left of our planet in 7.6 billion years.

Multicellular life will have just been a two billion year flicker against a backdrop of adaptable single-celled life. But hey, we had a good run.

Angry White Men and Aggrieved Entitlement (The Society Pages)

by John ZieglerNov 18, 2013, at 09:00 am

From Sheriff Joe Arpaio and his controversial raids on and detentions of immigrants to Rush Limbaugh and his rhetoric about “feminazis,” some white men, those sociologist Michael Kimmelterms “angry white men,” are resisting perceived challenges against their masculinity and historical experiences of privilege.

In his new book Angry White Men, Kimmel has interviewed white men across the country to gauge their feelings about their socioeconomic status in a sluggish and globalizing economy as well as the legal and social advances made by women, people of color, GLBT individuals, and others. Kimmel has coined the term “aggrieved entitlement” to describe these men’s defensiveness and aggravation that both “their” country and sense of self are being taken away from them. Kimmel writes in the Huffington Post,

Raised to believe that this was ‘their’ country, simply by being born white and male, they were entitled to a good job by which they could support a family as sole breadwinners, and to deference at home from adoring wives and obedient children…Theirs is a fight to restore, to reclaim more than just what they feel entitled to socially or economically – it’s also to restore their sense of manhood, to reclaim that sense of dominance and power to which they also feel entitled.

+

Cool dudes: The denial of climate change among conservative white males in the United States

Global Environmental Change

Volume 21, Issue 4, October 2011, Pages 1163–1172

Paper

Abstract

We examine whether conservative white males are more likely than are other adults in the U.S. general public to endorse climate change denial. We draw theoretical and analytical guidance from the identity-protective cognition thesis explaining the white male effect and from recent political psychology scholarship documenting the heightened system-justification tendencies of political conservatives. We utilize public opinion data from ten Gallup surveys from 2001 to 2010, focusing specifically on five indicators of climate change denial. We find that conservative white males are significantly more likely than are other Americans to endorse denialist views on all five items, and that these differences are even greater for those conservative white males who self-report understanding global warming very well. Furthermore, the results of our multivariate logistic regression models reveal that the conservative white male effect remains significant when controlling for the direct effects of political ideology, race, and gender as well as the effects of nine control variables. We thus conclude that the unique views of conservative white males contribute significantly to the high level of climate change denial in the United States.

“Rollin’ Coal” Is Pollution Porn for Dudes With Pickup Trucks (Vocativ)

Diesel drivers in rural America have been modifying their trucks to spew out black soot, then posting pics to the Internet. They hate you and your Prius

Author: 

Posted: 06/16/14 08:51 EDT

In small towns across America, manly men are customizing their jacked-up diesel trucks to intentionally emit giant plumes of toxic smoke every time they rev their engines. They call it “rollin’ coal,” and it’s something they do for fun.

An entire subculture has emerged on the Internet surrounding this soot-spewing pastime—where self-declared rednecks gather on Facebook pages (16,000 collective followers) Tumblers and Instagram (156,714 posts) to share photos and videos of their Dodge Rams and GM Silverados purposefully poisoning the sky. As one of their memes reads: “Roll, roll, rollin’ coal, let the hybrid see. A big black cloud. Exhaust that’s loud. Watch the city boy flee.”

Video: https://www.vocativ.com/embed/89277/

Of course, there are things about diesel lovers and their trucks that the rest of us weren’t meant to understand. Like how the guttural noise of a grumbling engine sounds like music when the muffler is removed. Or how the higher the lift and the bigger the tires—the better the man. As Robbie, a 25-year-old mechanic at a diesel garage in South Carolina, puts it, “Your truck is not just something to get you from point A to point B. It’s who you are.” In other words, mushrooming clouds of diesel exhaust are just another way to show off your manhood.

Robbie has been rollin’ coal since he got his first truck 12 years ago, but he admits the allure is “kind of hard to put words on.” “It’s just fun,” he says. “Just driving and blowing smoke and having a good time.”

Rollin Coal 05
CoalMontage

The pollution pageantry has its origins in Truck Pulls, a rural motorsport where diesel pickups challenge one another to see who can pull a weighted sled the farthest. In order to have an edge, drivers started modifying their trucks to dump excessive fuel into the motor, which gave them more horsepower, torque, speed and a better chance of winning. It also made their trucks emit black smoke, an affectation that apparently won the hearts of country boys everywhere. Today kids will spend anywhere from $1,000 to $5,000 modifying their pickups for this sole purpose; adding smoke stacks and smoke switches (which trick the engine into thinking it needs more gas), or even revamping the entire fuel system.

Rollin Coal 02
A Dodge doing its part.
FACEBOOK
Rollin Coal 03
INSTAGRAM

Aside from being macho, the rollin’ coal culture is also a renegade one. Kids make a point of blowing smoke back at pedestrians, in addition to cop cars and rice burners (Japanese-made sedans), which can make it dangerously difficult to see out of the windshield. Diesel soot can also be a great road rage weapon should some wimpy looking Honda Civic ever piss you off. “If someone makes you mad, you can just roll coal, and it makes you feel better sometimes,” says Ryan, a high school senior who works at the diesel garage with Robbie. “The other day I did it to this kid who was driving a Mustang with his windows down, and it was awesome.”

The ultimate highway enemy, however, are “nature nuffies,” or people who drive hybrid cars, because apparently, pro-earth sentiment is an offense to the diesel-trucking lifestyle. “The feeling around here is that everyone who drives a small car is a liberal,” says Ryan. “I rolled coal on a Prius once just because they were tailing me.”

Rollin Coal 04
INSTAGRAM

According to the Clean Air Taskforce, diesel exhaust is one of the country’s greatest sources of toxic pollutants and leads to 21,000 premature deaths each year, but even that won’t deter the coal rollers. “I’m not a scientist, but it couldn’t be too horrible,” Robbie says. “There are a lot of factories that are doing way worse than my truck.”

It should be said that not all diesel drivers roll coal. Older enthusiasts call it a waste of fuel and think it gives their kind a bad name, but like a tobacco habit, the younger set are willing to overlook the risks. “It’s bad for the environment. That’s definitely true,” says Ryan. “And some of the kids that have diesel trucks can look like tools. And you can cause a wreck, but everything else about it is pretty good.”

Eric Eyges contributed Deep Web reporting to this article.

Welcome to West Port Arthur, Texas, Ground Zero in the Fight for Climate Justice (The Nation)

If you live in a toxic environment like this, surrounded by refineries, you’re probably not thinking about some future apocalypse. You’re living in one.

Wen Stephenson

June 3, 2014   |    This article appeared in the June 23-30, 2014 edition of The Nation.

West Port Arthur

(AP Photo/LM Otero)

“We are now faced with the fact that tomorrow is today.” —Martin Luther King Jr.

Hilton Kelley stood smiling in the clear April sunshine outside Kelley’s Kitchen in the Gulf Coast city of Port Arthur, Texas, and extended a hand. Kelley, 53, is a big-framed man, with generous, gentle eyes and white stubble. The sign on the small corner restaurant readsDelicious Home-Cooked Food, but Kelley’s Kitchen is no longer serving. Kelley opened the place up in his beloved hometown in 2010 and managed to keep it running for about two and a half years. “It was going fairly well,” he told me. “But, you know, the town really doesn’t get a lot of foot traffic on this side of Port Arthur anymore.”

Kelley’s Kitchen is the only structure left standing on its section of Austin Avenue, just two blocks from the main downtown thoroughfare. In every direction are more vacant lots and dilapidated buildings—windows blown out, many of them empty for years, even decades. In the bright sun, the streets at midday on a Friday were ghostly quiet.

“This area was once a thriving community,” Kelley said. “It was traffic up and down Austin Avenue here.”

He invited me inside, out of the glare, and we sat at one of the tables in the well-kept place, which he now rents out for private parties and special occasions—there’s even a small dance floor complete with shiny disco ball. But that’s not all that goes on at Kelley’s Kitchen. The space doubles as the office of the Community In-Power & Development Association, or CIDA—the small, tough, grassroots community advocacy and environmental justice organization that Kelley founded in 2000, soon after returning to Port Arthur from California, where he was working in the movie industry as an actor and stunt man. In 2011, he received the prestigious Goldman Prize for his environmental justice activism. Kelley has testified before the Texas Legislature and the US Senate, addressed UNESCO in Paris, and met President Obama at the White House.

Just a few blocks from where we sat is the historic African-American community of West Port Arthur, where Kelley was born and raised in the Carver Terrace housing project, on the fence line of two massive oil refineries—one owned by Valero (formerly Gulf Oil) and the other by Motiva (formerly Texaco). In fact, the recently completed expansion of the Motiva refinery, which Kelley’s group fought hard against, makes it the largest in the nation, having more than doubled its capacity to 600,000 barrels of crude per day. Nearby are five more petrochemical plants and the Veolia incinerator facility. Port Arthur is on the receiving end of the Keystone XL tar-sands pipeline, the southern leg of which—cutting through East Texas communities—went operational in January. But the industry brings few jobs to West Port Arthur, where unemployment is over 15 percent. Workers commute to the plants, and economic development has moved north since the 1980s, along with white flight, to the newer Mid-County area along Highway 69 toward Nederland, where you’ll find a sudden explosion of malls, big-box stores, hotels and theme restaurants with busy parking lots.

And yet the economic abandonment of the downtown area and West Port Arthur, in the very shadow of the world’s richest industry, isn’t even the whole story—there’s also the pollution, some of the most toxic in the country. “One in five West Port Arthur households has someone in it with a respiratory illness,” Kelley said. “One in five.” The county’s cancer mortality rate, according to a recent study, is 25 percent higher than the state average. Toxic “events”—whether from gas flares or accidents—are common, Kelley told me: emissions often darkening the sky, fumes wafting into the neighborhood. The community is downwind of several of the refineries nearby. “If one isn’t flaring or smoking, another one is,” Kelley said. “At least twice a month, we’re going to get some flaring and smoke from one of them.” As much as he can, he documents the events. “Sometimes it’ll be really pungent, to the point where it stings the nose and eyes.”

But apart from these incidents, he added, there’s the constant day-to-day toxic menace in the air. “It’s not always what you see—it’s what you don’t see. A lot of these gases are very dangerous. Sometimes newcomers will smell it and we can’t, because we’re desensitized to it.”

* * *

Kelley had offered to show me around Port Arthur and give me the fence-line tour on the west side, the community where he grew up. I knew about his accomplishments with CIDA—among other things, how they’d successfully pressured both Motiva and Valero, the former to install state-of-the-art equipment to reduce toxic emissions and pay for a community development center, and the latter to fund a new health clinic. And I understood that CIDA is more than an environmental justice group: its mission is to educate, empower and revitalize the community, working especially with young people. I knew that Kelley has made a real difference since returning home.

But before we left Kelley’s Kitchen, I needed to ask him about another threat—one that, given Port Arthur’s economic and racial marginalization, its proximity to dangerous petrochemical infrastructure, and its location on the gulf, could ultimately be the most devastating of all.

Yes, he answered, “we are seeing some of the impacts of climate change around here, as a matter of fact.” The rising sea level has washed out parts of Highway 87 between Port Arthur and Galveston. “They’ve abandoned the road,” Kelley said. And the ferocity of hurricanes, from Katrina and Rita to Ike, has shaken even Port Arthur natives like him. They were spared the worst of Katrina, “but Rita came very soon after that, and that’s when we got hit hard,” Kelley said. “I mean, a lot of the houses are gone. You can still see the FEMA tarps on some of the roofs today. A lot of homes that were once inhabited are now abandoned, because the federal dollars didn’t come in soon enough and the houses just dry-rotted.” The residents of Port Arthur haven’t faced the kind of epic flooding that was seen in New Orleans, but with Hurricane Ike they came close. “Ike brought in a huge surge, and it reached right to the top of our hundred-year levee but didn’t breach it.” Even so, the roof of Kelley’s old office was torn off: “The rain just poured in and destroyed everything.”

I’d heard about Port Arthur, but nothing prepared me for the physical reality of the place—a decaying, all-but-forgotten urban landscape inhabited by a struggling and precariously resilient community. As you drive west and north out of downtown, the refineries stretch for miles, at times towering over you like something out of dystopian science fiction. But this is not some futuristic scenario—it’s here and now. And those same smokestacks that are poisoning the inhabitants of Port Arthur are part of a global fossil fuel infrastructure that has trapped us in its political-economic grip, threatening civilization and the future of life on Earth—threatening not only the children of Port Arthur but everyone’s children, everywhere, including my own.

And yet, here’s the thing: if you live in West Port Arthur and toxic emissions have ruined your health, or your child can’t go to school because she can’t breathe, or you can’t find a job and feed your kids and see no way out of the projects—or all of the above—then you’re probably not thinking about some future apocalypse. You’re living in one. You inhabit an apocalyptic present. And what’s true of Port Arthur is true of frontline communities across the Gulf Coast and across the continent—and the world.

* * *

The struggle for climate justice is a struggle at the crossroads of historic and present injustices and a looming catastrophe that will prove to be, if allowed to unfold unchecked, the mother of all injustices. Because the disaster that is unfolding now will not only compound the suffering of those already oppressed—indeed, is already compounding it—but may very well foreclose any future hope of social stability and social justice.

So why does the term “climate justice” barely register in the American conversation about climate change? Lurking in that question is a tension at the heart of the struggle: a tension between the mainstream climate movement (largely white, well-funded and Washington-focused) and those—most often people of color—who have been fighting for social and environmental justice for decades.

Nobody has worked longer and harder at this intersection of climate and environmental justice than Robert Bullard, the celebrated sociologist and activist who is often called the father of the environmental justice movement. In 1994, he founded the Environmental Justice Resource Center at Clark Atlanta University, the first of its kind, and since 2011 he’s been the dean of the Barbara Jordan–Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs at Texas Southern University (TSU) in Houston. It was Bullard who introduced me to Hilton Kelley, and I knew he could offer historical insight into the relationship between the environmental justice and climate movements.

“Climate change looms as the global environmental justice issue of the twenty-first century,” Bullard writes in 2012’s The Wrong Complexion for Protection: How the Government Response to Disaster Endangers African American Communities, co-authored with longtime collaborator Beverly Wright, founding director of the Deep South Center for Environmental Justice at Dillard University in New Orleans. “It poses special environmental justice challenges for communities that are already overburdened with air pollution, poverty, and environmentally related illnesses.” Climate change, as Bullard and Wright show, exacerbates existing inequities. “The most vulnerable populations will suffer the earliest and most damaging setbacks,” they write, “even though they have contributed the least to the problem of global warming.” (As if to prove the point, their project was delayed for more than two years by Hurricane Katrina, which destroyed the Deep South Center’s computer files and devastated Wright’s New Orleans East community. Her chapters documenting the unequal treatment of the city’s African-Americans in the Katrina recovery are a tour de force.)

Bullard’s landmark 1990 book Dumping in Dixie: Race, Class, and Environmental Qualityestablished the empirical and theoretical—and, for that matter, moral—basis of environmental justice. Through his early work on the siting of urban landfills in Houston’s African-American neighborhoods, beginning in 1978, as well as the siting around the country of toxic waste and incineration facilities, petrochemical plants and refineries, polluting power plants and more, Bullard has systematically exposed the structural and at times blatant racism—which he calls “environmental racism”—underlying the disproportionate burden of pollution on communities of color, especially African-African communities in the South. His work has done much to set the agenda of the environmental-justice movement.

This year marks the twentieth anniversary of Executive Order 12898, signed by Bill Clinton in February 1994, which explicitly established environmental justice in minority and low-income populations as a principle of federal policy. This year also marks the fiftieth anniversary of the Civil Rights Act—a fitting coincidence, as Bullard likes to point out, because the “EJ” executive order reinforced the historic 1964 law. However, in a report released in February called “Environmental Justice Milestones and Accomplishments: 1964 to 2014,” Bullard and his colleagues at TSU write, in what must qualify as understatement: “The EJ Executive Order after twenty years and three U.S. presidents has never been fully implemented.”

I sat down with Bob Bullard (as he’s universally known) in April in his office at TSU, where we had two lively and substantive conversations. I’d interviewed him once before, by phone last August, and in the meantime he’d been much in demand. In September, he received the Sierra Club’s John Muir Award, its highest honor; in March, he delivered the opening keynote address at the National Association of Environmental Law Societies conference at Harvard Law School, assessing environmental justice after twenty years (former EPA chief Lisa Jackson was the other keynoter). He received two standing ovations from the jam-packed Harvard audience.

* * *

Bullard, who grew up in small-town Alabama, speaks with an orator’s cadences and a comedian’s timing. At 67, he has a fighter’s glint in his eye and an irresistibly mischievous grin above a Du Boisian goatee (he calls W.E.B. Du Bois his intellectual hero). In Houston, I asked him about the relationship between environmental justice, traditionally understood, and climate justice—and why they sometimes appear to be in tension, at least in the United States.

Bullard likes to start with a history lesson. In 1991, he helped convene the First National People of Color Environmental Leadership Summit in Washington, DC, where seventeen “Principles of Environmental Justice” were adopted. At the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio, those principles were circulated in several languages. But it wasn’t until 2000, in The Hague, that Bullard joined other leaders and groups from around the world for the first “climate justice summit,” meeting in parallel with the sixth United Nations climate conference, or COP 6. “It was a very transformative time,” Bullard recalled. “When environmental justice groups and groups working on climate, on human rights and social justice and civil rights, came together in The Hague in 2000, ‘climate justice’ was not a term that was universally used.” At that summit, “we said that climate justice has to be the centerpiece in dealing with climate change. If you look at the communities that are impacted first, worst and longest—whether in Asia, Africa, Latin America or here in the US—when you talk about the majority of people around the world, climate justice is not a footnote. It is the centerpiece.” And this is not a minority view, he added: “It’s the majority view.”

And yet, Bullard said, here in the United States, “equity and justice get a footnote”—in terms of framing the conversation, it’s been a struggle to make sure that justice is given parity with the science. “That’s the rub,” Bullard told me. “And that’s why the climate movement has not been able to get traction like you’d think it would, given the facts that are there. The people on the ground who could actually form the face of climate change, be the poster child of global warming—they’re almost relegated to the fringes. And that is a mistake.” In the United States as well as globally, Bullard said, “we know the faces, we know what they look like. We know the frontline communities, the frontline nations. But to what extent do we have leadership that’s reflective of communities that are hardest hit? Very little has changed over the last twenty years when it comes to who’s out there.”

I observed that climate justice ought to be the most unifying concept on the planet, if only for the simple reason that people tend to care about their children and grandchildren. I had asked Bullard earlier about the idea of intergenerational justice—the fact that, along with those in the poorest and most vulnerable communities around the world, today’s young people and future generations will bear the vastly disproportionate, potentially devastating impacts of climate change. Isn’t climate justice really environmental justice writ large—in fact, on a global scale—yet with this added generational dimension?

“Exactly,” Bullard said. “And for me, that’s the glue and the organizing catalyst that can bring people together across racial and class lines.”

In that case, I wondered aloud, if the central mission and purpose of the climate movement is to prevent runaway, civilization-destroying global warming—in other words, to create the necessary political and economic conditions for a last-ditch, all-out effort to keep enough fossil fuels in the ground—then isn’t that work already about racial, economic, social and, yes, generational justice? Because the consequences, if we don’t do everything possible to keep fossil fuels in the ground—

“Then we’re not going to have any justice,” Bullard interjected.

“In terms of the moral imperative,” he added, “looking at the severe impacts—the impact on food security, on cross-border conflicts, war, climate refugees—when you look at the human rights piece, in terms of threats to humanity, if we drew it out and looked at it, I think more people would be appalled at these little baby steps that we’re taking. This is an emergency, and it calls for emergency action—not baby steps, but emergency action.”

Nevertheless, Bullard also explained why that all-consuming focus on greenhouse gas emissions is insufficient by itself.

“You have to understand that in order to have a movement, people have to identify with—andown—the movement,” he said. “Just saying climate change is a big problem is not enough to get people to say, ‘We’re gonna work to try to keep coal and oil in the ground.’ There has to be something to trigger people to say, ‘This is my own movement.’”

Bullard believes that the climate justice framework can “bring more people to the table.” Take the example of coal plants: “The environmental justice analysis is that it’s not just the greenhouse gases we’re talking about; in terms of health, it’s also these nasty co-pollutants that are doing damage right now. Not the future—right now.”

So to bring those people to the table, he continued, “you have to say: How do you build a movement around that and reach people where they are?”

* * *

Last year, Bullard and his colleagues at TSU and other historically black colleges and universities—including Beverly Wright at Dillard and the Deep South Center in New Orleans—launched an initiative they call the Climate Education Community University Partnership (CECUP). “We’re linking our schools with these vulnerable communities,” Bullard told me, “trying to get to a population that has historically been left out. We’re going to try to get our people involved.”

When you look at the most vulnerable communities, the “adaptation hot spots,” he added, these are the same communities the schools were founded to serve, and often the very places in which they are located. “We’re not going to wait for somebody to ride in on a white horse and say, ‘We’re going to save these communities!’” Bullard said. “We have to take leadership.”

The initiative invests in a new generation of young scholars and leaders who can draw the connections between greenhouse gas emissions, climate adaptation, and the classic environmental justice issues of pollution, health, and racial and class disparities. “Our folks on the ground can make the connections between these dirty diesel buses, that dirty coal plant, and their kids having to go to the emergency room because of an asthma attack, with no health insurance,” Bullard said. “We see it as human rights issues, environmental issues, health issues, issues of differential power.”

Clearly, anyone like me—with my 40,000-foot view of the climate crisis—would do well to try seeing the concept of climate justice from the ground up, at street level, and through a racial-equity lens. Sitting down with five of Bullard’s graduate students at TSU—joined by two of his colleagues, sociologist and associate dean Glenn Johnson and environmental toxicologist Denae King—I was treated to a generous portion of that ground-up perspective.

For Steven Washington, a 29-year-old native of Houston’s Third Ward and a second-year master’s student in urban planning and public policy, “climate change means asthma; it means health disparities.” Working in Pleasantville, a fence-line community along the Port of Houston, he’s concerned about the city’s notorious air quality, graded F by the American Lung Association, and what it means for a population—especially the elderly—ill equipped to deal with the impacts of climate change. For Jenise Young, a 33-year-old doctoral student in urban planning and environmental policy whose 9-year-old son suffers from severe asthma, climate change is also about “food deserts” like the one surrounding the TSU campus—a social inequity that climate change, as it increases food insecurity, only deepens. (The wealthier University of Houston campus next door inhabits something of an oasis in that desert.) Jamila Gomez, 26, a second-year master’s student in urban planning and environmental policy, points to transportation inequities—the fact that students can’t get to internships in the city, that the elderly can’t get to grocery stores and doctors’ offices, that the bus service takes too long and Third Ward bus stops lack shade on Houston’s sweltering summer days.

I asked the students if they see the growing US climate justice movement—especially students and young people who want to foreground these issues—as a hopeful sign.

“My major concern is that this is a lifelong commitment,” Young replied. “That’s my issue with a lot of the climate justice movement—that it’s the hot topic right now. Prior to that, it was Occupy Wall Street. Prior to that, it was the Obama campaign. But what happens when this is not a fad for you anymore? Because this is not a fad.”

Glenn Johnson, the co-editor of several books, including Environmental Health and Racial Equity in the United States, chimed in: “It’s a life-and-death situation. There are others who come into the movement, they have a choice—they can go back to their respective communities. But for us, there’s no backing out of talking about the [Houston] ship channel. We are the front line; it’s 24/7. When we wake up, we smell that shit.”

“It’s not one problem,” said Denae King. “It’s multiple problems—poverty, food security, greenhouse emissions, all of these things happening at once. In the mind of a person living in a fence-line community, you have to address all of the problems.” Climate change is urgent, she added, “but still, I have to pay my bills today. I have to provide healthy food today.”

All of which is undeniably true. And it is equally true that the scientific evidence overwhelmingly indicates that the window in which to take serious action on climate change is closing fast. Unless we act now to begin radically reducing greenhouse gas emissions and building resilience, our children and future generations face catastrophe. What you hear from climate justice advocates working on the front lines is that, precisely because of this emergency, the way to build a powerful movement is to approach climate change as an intersectional issue.

After I left Houston, I spoke with Jacqueline Patterson, director of the Environmental and Climate Justice Program at the NAACP. One of the first things she did upon arriving in 2009, Patterson told me, was to write a memo looking at climate justice and the NAACP’s traditional agenda. “It went area by area—health, education, civic engagement, criminal justice, economic development—and showed how environmental and climate justice directly intersect in myriad ways.”

Patterson’s work rests on the understanding that if we’re going to address climate change seriously, then we’re in for a rapid energy transition—one that’s by no means guaranteed to be smooth or economically just. In December, her initiative released its “Just Energy Policies” report, looking state by state at the measures—from local-hire provisions to ones for minority- and women-owned businesses—that can help bring about a just transition to clean energy. At a press conference in Milwaukee the day before, Patterson said, she stood next to NAACP leaders, “and we were talking about starting a training and job-placement program for formerly incarcerated youth and youth at risk around solar installation and energy-efficiency retrofitting.” An energy-efficiency bill was recently introduced in the Missouri Legislature, she noted. “Before, we might not have seen the NAACP getting behind that legislation, because the energy conversation wasn’t seen as part of our civil rights agenda. Now, they’re in with both feet.”

Bob Bullard talks about growing up in the small, deeply segregated town of Elba, Alabama, where he graduated from high school in 1964, the year of Freedom Summer and the Civil Rights Act. He went to Alabama A&M, the historically black university in Huntsville, graduated in 1968, then served in the Marines from 1968 to 1970 (but was mercifully spared Vietnam). Bullard was formed by the civil rights struggle. “I was a sophomore in 1965,” he said. “That was the year of Selma and the bridge. As students, you’re very conscious.” He revered Martin Luther King Jr., Rosa Parks, Malcolm X, Stokely Carmichael, Fannie Lou Hamer, Ella Baker and many others. “You identified with a struggle, and you saw it as your struggle.”

Bullard has written about King’s final campaign, when he went to Memphis in 1968 to march in solidarity with the striking sanitation workers. “I tell my students, ‘If you don’t think garbage is an environmental justice issue, you let the garbage workers go on strike.’”

If environmental justice emerged out of the civil rights struggle, then you could almost say that Bullard’s work, and the movement to which he’s dedicated his life, began there in Memphis—picking up where King’s work was cut short.

* * *

Hilton Kelley drove me up Houston Avenue, through what he calls Old Port Arthur, parallel to the railroad tracks that separate the African-American west side from downtown. “This was the booming area during the heyday of Port Arthur,” he said. As we drove alongside the tracks, Kelley pointed to at least three small grocery stores that had long since gone out of business.

We crossed the tracks and drove past a housing project built in the 1970s. Kelley showed me St. John’s Missionary Baptist Church, where the Rev. Elijah “EJ” James allowed him to hold some of his first organizing meetings. But he’s been asked not to distribute fliers outside some of the churches. Kelly affected an old man’s voice: “‘We can appreciate what you’re doing, son. But don’t pass that out around here.’” He added, “Some of them work at the plants.”

We stopped to see his old high school, now a middle school. I noticed the flag was flying at half-staff and wondered why. We both thought for a moment.

“Oh, it must be for MLK,” Kelley said.

Of course. I had completely forgotten—it was April 4.

“I remember when Martin Luther King was shot,” he said. “You could hear the neighbors crying. So I ran down the street to tell my mother, who was down at the laundromat, and she was already in tears. She’d already heard about it. I was 7 years old. It was a sad day.”

We drove down 14th Street, past the small houses—some in good repair with well-kept front yards, many others in poor condition, some at the point of collapse. A few blocks farther, where the road ends, was Carver Terrace, the housing project where Kelley grew up, a stone’s throw from the Valero refinery. Carver Terrace is empty now, slated for demolition, its residents given housing vouchers with the option to relocate to a new project in another part of town—one at least not directly in harm’s way. The last family had moved out about three weeks earlier, Kelley told me.

We got out and stood among the rows of long, plain-brick, two-story buildings. “If you’d come here six months ago,” Kelley said, “you would’ve seen kids running across the street and playing ball right here.”

I asked him how it felt to see it like this now.

“Oh, man, it’s like The Twilight Zone,” he said. “I’m getting used to it, but I ride by here every day.”

Not fifty yards from Carver Terrace, and even closer to a playground with new play structures, exposed pipes emerged from the berm along the Valero fence. Signs read:Warning: Light Hydrocarbon Pipeline.

Kelley told me that he never thought he’d be doing this work for as long as he has. “But here I am,” he said, “fourteen years down the road, still chopping away at it. New issues keep cropping up. But trust me, I’m no ways tired. What I’ve discovered is that we are a necessary entity in this community. I’m here to stay.”

It was a beautiful day, and Kelley drove with the windows down. A middle-aged woman on the street called out to him. “How’s it going?” Kelley said, genuine warmth in his voice.

“Pretty good,” she called back. “How you doin’?”

“I’m hangin’ on in there, enjoyin’ this day.”

“This is a great community to grow up in,” Kelley told me. “I ran and played up and down these streets. I love the smell in the air right now, the plants growing, the springtime. We’ve got a pretty good day today—don’t have any high emissions levels. I’m lovin’ it. You can smell the flowers.”

* * *

The next morning, I went back on my own and drove around downtown and the west side of Port Arthur. It was overcast now, the gray light altering the mood of the day before, and I was overcome by a need to see the ocean, across Sabine Lake and the coastal marshes on the Louisiana side. So I drove out of Port Arthur on Highway 82, passing still more petrochemical plants along the way, and stopped after half an hour at a row of beach houses built on sturdy pilings. The wind on my face was fresh and welcome, but on the horizon, up and down the coast, I could see the oil platforms. No escape.

Heading back into Port Arthur, crossing the wide channel at the mouth of Sabine Lake, I drove over the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial Bridge. As I crested its steep ascent, the Valero and Motiva refineries were spread out in front of me. The dystopian petrochemical landscape stretched into the distance, and I caught my breath at the sight of it as I descended.

What are we fighting for? What are any of us who care about climate justice fighting for? What does “climate justice” mean in the face of the dehumanizing, world-devouring carbon-industrial machine, of which we ourselves are a part? What does it mean in the face of the latest science—which keeps telling us, in its bloodless language, just how late the hour really is?

In 1967, Martin Luther King published his final book, Where Do We Go From Here: Chaos or Community? In those pages, and in his speeches during those last years, he struggled to reinvigorate and reunite the civil rights movement, which was coming apart at the seams over Black Power and nonviolence, over separatism and integration, over how fast and how hard to push for economic justice and against the war in Vietnam. And while he’s often cast these days as a moderate, it’s important to remember just how radical King was.

Critics—including some of his allies—thought that he should stick to race and civil rights and not address what they considered the “separate issues” of labor, poverty and, most of all, war. But King understood that all of these issues were interconnected—that, at a profound level, they intersected. He saw that the “unholy trinity” of racism, poverty and war—with the threat of nuclear annihilation always in the air—were, at root, one and the same. They are all forms of violence, he argued; they all grow from “man’s inhumanity to man” and must be confronted by an unconditional and universal love.

It seems that movements can reach a critical point at which unity—the need to come together around common principles and a common struggle, and a common understanding of what that struggle is about—becomes all-important. The question now is whether climate justice can be defined broadly enough to encompass everyone—not only our own communities, our own children, but everyone, everywhere, including generations not yet born—in order to keep even the possibility of justice alive on Earth.

Because the only chance we have now is to fight for each other. We have to fight for the person sitting next to us and the person living next door to us, for the person across town and across the tracks from us, and for the person across the continent and across the ocean from us. Because we’re fighting for our humanity. Not simply for our own survival, but for the survival of some legitimate hope for what King called the “beloved community.” Even as we struggle just to survive.

Our fight is against chaos and for community. And it cannot wait. “We are now faced with the fact that tomorrow is today,” King wrote in the final paragraph of his last book. “We are confronted with the fierce urgency of now. In this unfolding conundrum of life and history there is such a thing as being too late.”

It may be too late to prevent catastrophe for countless people. Yet even in the face of all we now know, will it ever be too late to hold on to our humanity?

Heidegger and Geology (Public Seminar)

McKenzie Wark

June 26th, 2014

A small, handmade green book mysteriously appeared in my New School mail slot, with the intriguing title: The Anthropocene, or “The work is going well, but it looks like it might be the end of the world.” 

Its author is Woodbine, which turns out to be an address in Brooklyn where the texts in this small book were first presented. (The texts, and information about this interesting project, can also be found here and here). I have never been to Woodbine, but good things seem to be happening there.

I read the book on the way home to Queens from the New School, on the subway. As it turns out this was a fitting place to be reading these very interesting texts, passing through geological strata.

Whenever I raise the Anthropocene with humanities-trained people, their first instinct is to critique it as a concept. It’s hard to buck that liberal arts and grad school training, but it’s an impulse to resist. It’s time to rethink the whole project of ‘humanist culture’, to which even us card-carrying anti-humanists still actually belong.

The Woodbine text makes some useful advances in that direction. But for me I think the project now is not to apply the old grad school bag o’tricks to the Anthropocene, but rather to apply the Anthropocene to a root-and-branch rethinking of how we make knowledge outside the sciences and social sciences.

Woodbine: “The naming of the Anthropocene comes not to announce humankind’s triumph but rather its exhaustion.” (3) This disposes with the most idiotic criticism of the Anthropocene, that it is ‘hubris’ to raise up the human to such a power that it could name a geological age. The Anthropocene actually does something very different. Its not the old rhetoric of a Promethean triumph over nature, but rather poses the question: “How are we to live in a ruin?” (4)

The geologist Paul Crutzen has succinctly listed the signs of the Anthropocene: deforestation, urbanization, mass extinctions, ocean acidification, loss of biodiversity and climate change. He thinks collective human labor is starting to transform the very lithosphere itself. Woodbines modulates this a bit, calling this “the Anthropocene biopolitical epoch.” (15) But that’s where I think the radical import of the Anthropocene gets lost. Those trained in the humanities are besotted with the idea of politics, attributing all sorts of magical agency to it. But really, up against the lithosphere, politics may be as uselessly superstructural as fine art, or as imaginary as the Gods of the religions.

Woodbine engagingly calls Marx ‘Captain Anthropocene.’ He is perhaps one of our great witness-conceptualizers about the moment when the Anthropocene really accelerated: “Proletarianizing us, as Marx called it, didn’t just separate us from our conditions of existence: it literally recreated how we live, setting up walls against any other way of living.” (12) Collective social labor made a second nature, over and against nature, but in part also alienating the human from that which produced it.

As I have argued elsewhere, the historical response to this has been to erect a third nature, over and against second nature, to overcome its alienating effects – but in the process producing new ones. That’s where we are now, with the growing disenchantment with the internet and all that.

Crisis is a tricky concept, as my New School colleague Janet Roitman ably explains in her book Anti-Crisis. If there’s no crisis then how can the critical be made to work? The self interest of the latter requires the perception of the former. As somebody once said, to a critic with a hammer, everything looks like a thumb.

The Anthropocene might subtly modulate the old rhetoric of crisis. Woodbine: “with the Anthropocene, the catastrophe is here in the form of the age itself, meaning our entire civilization, and its requisite way of life, is already a ruin.” (18) Crisis is not a thing or event in the world, it is the world.

This would be the profound shock of Crutzen’s provocation, that crisis is not merely political or even economic, but geological. Woodbine: “It’s crazy, like we’re reading Heidegger in the annals of the geological societies!” (19) Actually, here is where I would want to dissent from the Woodbine text. It is not that one finds Heidegger in the geological annals, but the reverse. Heidegger is only of any interest to the extent that one finds the geological in his thought, unrecognized.

It is striking how much of the grad school canon lets us down when it comes to the Anthropocene. It’s disorienting. Things once safely left unaddressed cannot be depended on. Latour: “to live in the Anthropocene is to live in a declared state of war.” But one has to ask whether Latour’s recent discovery of the Anthropocene is really all that consistent with his past work, which seems to me to concede too much to the vanity of humanists. It was only ever about part- or quasi- objects. It never really made the leap of recognizing the weakness of its own methods. Latour was a half-way house, a holding operation. As Donna Haraway pointed out a long time ago, Latour still has a thing for stories about great men waging great conflicts.

For Woodbine, the Anthropocene is the scene of a “metaphysical war.” (21) But it might be more interesting to think this the other way around. What if metaphysics was nothing more than a displaced echo of the Anthropocene? Metaphysics is not an essential key to it. Metaphysics is rather one of the pollutants. Metaphysics is just the off-gassing of the Anthropocene.

Let’s pause, too, over the war metaphor, so beloved of the cold war decision sciences. We need a new imaginary of the relation.

Still, Woodbine does get some mileage out of the dust of the old concepts. There is surely a crisis of state at the moment. The link between rationality and governance can no longer be finessed, it is finally abandoned. Governments become ad hoc reaction machines. Its what I call the spectacle of disintegration, where the state can (1) no longer orient itself in an historical time, (2) is now deceiving itself, and not just its subjects, and (3) wears out and fragments all of the ideological detritus that once sustained at least the illusion that state and history were one.

This is where Woodbine is right to point to the rhetorical figure of ‘resilience’ as a salient one. It’s a rejection of the old mastery trope. No longer is the state the collective subject of history bending the objects of nature to a collective will. Rather, it’s a rhetoric of connecting what were once objects and subjects together in webs and nets in constant flux. Now it’s all feedback loops and recursive, adaptive systems. At least in theory. For now in actuality, power is just disintegrating. Its new militarization is a sign of its lack of confidence. The game is up.

Woodbine chooses here a local, New York example. MoMA organized a show, just after the housing bubble burst, called Rising Currents. The brief was for architects and planners to show how the city (actually mostly Manhattan and the cool bits of Brooklyn) could be more resilient. One project imagines a restoration of the old oyster beds that used to dot the foreshores, as a kind of eco- econo- climate resilience virtuous circle.

When I heard someone not unconnected to Woodbine present this part of the Woodbine text at the Historical Materialism conference, the oyster bed project was met with hoots of laughter. But to me this just shows how alienated humanities-trained people are from design and urban planning as kinds of practice. It’s so much harder to even imagine what one might build in the Anthropocene than to divine its concept. And particularly hard to even imagine what one could build that would scale, that would work for the seven billion.

“The Anthropocene provides the urgency to draw together previously unrelated knowledges, practices, and technologies into a network of relation….” (26-27) One might struggle for and against certain forms such networks might take, or even as to whether they are really going to be ‘networks’ (that word which in our time is both ideological and yet so real). Maybe we would rather be infuriating swarms or packs than networks.

Woodbine: “In the Anthropocene, the critical gesture is finished. New Land, new horizons. Everything is to be reinvented.” (28) One might not want to put it in too declarative a style, but yes indeed. Perhaps its time to get to work re-inventing what humanities knowledge might be, and with what it connects, and how it connects.

The actual culture may be way ahead of us. On the one hand, the Anthropocene is the cultural unconscious. Every movie and tv show is about it, whether it knows it or not. We are “living in this end without end, an exhausted civilization dreams its apocalypse anew each morning…” (32) But a certain paralysis results from this.

Woodbine has a good analysis of this. The apocalypse means to uncover, reveal. For the messianic sects that arose out of Rome in decline, apocalyptic time was unidirectional and teleological. Things are in a state of incompletion. The meaning of the fragments around about one lies in the anticipation of the revealing of their unit. “As a result of this anticipation of an eschatological event through which things and beings will be saved from their decrepitude, the whole of reality is derealized. The disenchantment of the world has closely followed this strange derealization of the real…” (39) This is the problem: the apocalypse disconnects us from the world. As for that matter does the communist horizon, that partly secularized version of the temporal logic of apocalypse.

In this perspective, empire is that which holds back the purifying apocalypse. But in our time, apocalypse has been desacralized. It no longer promises redemption. Resilience is government under conditions of constant apocalypse. It’s a temporality which disperses apocalypse, but also takes away its redeeming power. It is to be endured. There’s no revelation imminent. “If we can understand Rome as catechon, warding off a single catastrophe in space and time (Armageddon), resilience multiplies and diffuses this structure across the whole globe…” (49) Salvation is unthinkable, resilience is all about survival.

And yet, curiously, resilience “maintains the homogenous time of a government without end.” (50) Empire wants to think it is not that which impedes the apocalypse which reveals meaning in its totality, after time breaks. Empire today wants to think it can be rubbery enough to be ‘sustainable’, to pass through multiple crises, but keep a homogenous, spectacular time ticking over. Power gets it that the old subject as master of the object ontology has to go, but strangely still maintains a universal homogenous time of petty and baseless things and their wondrous ‘networks.’

That, I think, is a wonderfully distilled analysis. I read Woodbine as wanting to reanimate the messianic rather than abandoning this whole conceptual tar pit. Hence: “Inhabiting the messianic means no longer waiting for the end of the world.” (55) The project is one of transforming lived time. The messianic becomes a practice of the here and now, a practice that might restore a shattered world, that restore being: “we must inhabit the desert.” (57)

There’s a Deleuzian note here, from the cinema books, for example, about believing in the world. “To enter messianic time is to believe in the world, in its possibilities of movement and intensities, and to create worlds.” (58) But as Woodbine acknowledges, this is worse than collapse of Rome. If it’s a ‘crisis’ it is not one that happens in time, it is rather a crisis of time.

Perhaps the worn-out old names so endlessly recycled in grad school are not going to be of much help to us. Are we really expecting, that if time appears now in a very new way, that those who survived the old time and became those who marked its tempo are going to talk about a time not their own? What if Walter Benjamin, Martin Heidegger or Carl Schmitt had nothing to say about the Anthropocene? When did humanists become the arch-conservatives? Insisting on ever occasion that the answers are always in the same old books? And always the same answers, no matter what the question.

On the one hand, it might be more interesting to pay attention to the organic intellectuals emerging out of more or less consciously Anthropocene practices. Woodbine thinks these are in two categories. Firstly, there’s the insurrections and occupations. Secondly, there’s the cultures of hacking, prepping, modding, which are often not ‘political’ in any overt sense, but which tend to have a firm notion that we need new practices of engaging with the world.

Woodbine wants to think insurrection and occupation as having an almost spiritual dimension. But perhaps the driver of the dissolution of legitimate political form really is going to be the food riot, as it was so often in the past as well. Here I want a much more vulgar read on Marx than Woodbine. We’re going to have to get our hands at least conceptually dirty.

Thinking alongside the organic intellectuals who are hacking and modding the interfaces to the old infrastructure strikes me as a necessary project. I agree with Benjamin Bratton that the question of our time is (as I hear him phrase it, at least): can the infrastructure of the old world produce a qualitatively new infrastructure? But thinking that problem would require a much wider collaboration among forms of knowledge and practice than I think Woodbine is prepared to entertain. It is not the case that only the Gods can save us.

The discourse of the humanities revels in the qualitative, and wants to see only the good side of the qualitative and the bad side of quantitative knowledge, viz: “To be able to judge a situation, or a being, you must introduce some standard of measurement, and hence reduce a living, breathing fullness to an abstracted mass of equivalents. A subject or an object is thus the stripped bare life that can be replaced.” (74)

The problem with this is that it doesn’t follow. There’s no necessary link between measuring something and thinking it replaceable. Climate science, as quantitative knowledge, is counter-factual example enough. On the other hand, the qualitative, as that which makes distinctions, is perfectly capable of making distinctions between who or what matters and what doesn’t, and is replaceable. ‘Bare life’, after all, is a Roman legal category, which has nothing to do with quantification.

Hence I am not too convinced that salvation alone lies in reworking a kind of affirmative ontology: “Whatever singularity is simply the inhabiting, really inhabiting, of the being that we already are…” (75) Rather, the problem might be the very notion that a philosophy can have such magical properties, if only one gets the incantation right. If philosophy was ever going to save us, it would have done so by now.

Most of our theories, it seems now in the Anthropocene, are not keys or tools, but rather symptoms. They are more part of the problem than the solution. I see no difference between keeping the Heidegger industry going and keeping the coal-fired power industry going. Except that the former has even more tenacious apologists.

But I like the Woodbine texts. I salute their attention to what matters. Theory has to know what time it is. Its time is the Anthropocene.

The New Abolitionism (The Nation)

Corte seletivo e fogo fazem Floresta Amazônica perder 54 milhões de toneladas de carbono por ano (Agência Fapesp)

JC e-mail 4973, de 16 de junho de 2014

A perda de carbono corresponde a 40% daquela causada pelo desmatamento total

Uma pesquisa conduzida por cientistas no Brasil e no Reino Unido quantificou o impacto causado na Floresta Amazônica por corte seletivo de árvores, destruição parcial pelo fogo e fragmentação decorrente de pastagens e plantações. Em conjunto, esses fatores podem estar subtraindo da floresta cerca de 54 milhões de toneladas de carbono por ano, lançados à atmosfera na forma de gases de efeito estufa. Esta perda de carbono corresponde a 40% daquela causada pelo desmatamento total.

O estudo, desenvolvido por 10 pesquisadores de 11 instituições do Brasil e do Reino Unido, foi publicado em maio na revista Global ChangeBiology.

“Os impactos da extração madeireira, do fogo e da fragmentação têm sido pouco percebidos, pois todos os esforços estão concentrados em evitar mais desmatamento. Essa postura deu grandes resultados na conservação da Amazônia brasileira, cuja taxa de desmatamento caiu em mais de 70% nos últimos 10 anos. No entanto, nosso estudo mostrou que esse outro tipo de degradação impacta severamente a floresta, com enormes quantidades de carbono antes armazenadas sendo perdidas para a atmosfera”, disse a brasileira Erika Berenguer, pesquisadora do Lancaster Environment Centre, da Lancaster University, no Reino Unido, primeira autora do estudo.

Segundo Joice Ferreira, pesquisadora da Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa Amazônia Oriental), em Belém (PA), e segunda autora do estudo, um dos motivos dessa degradação ser menos percebida é a dificuldade de monitoramento. “As imagens de satélite permitem detectar com muito mais facilidade as áreas totalmente desmatadas”, afirmou.

“Nossa pesquisa combinou imagens de satélite com estudo de campo. Fizemos uma avaliação, pixel a pixel [cada pixel na imagem corresponde a uma área de 900 metros quadrados], sobre o que aconteceu nos últimos 20 anos. Na pesquisa de campo, estudamos 225 parcelas (de 3 mil metros quadrados cada) em duas grandes regiões, com 3 milhões de hectares [30 mil quilômetros quadrados], utilizadas como modelo para estimar o que ocorre no conjunto da Amazônia”, explicou Ferreira.

As imagens de satélite, comparadas de dois em dois anos, possibilitaram que os pesquisadores construíssem um grande painel da degradação da floresta ao longo da linha do tempo, em uma escala de 20 anos. Na pesquisa de campo foram avaliadas as cicatrizes de fogo, de exploração madeireira e outras agressões. A combinação das duas investigações resultou na estimativa de estoque de carbono que se tem hoje.

Duas regiões foram estudadas in loco: Santarém e Paragominas, na porção leste da Amazônia, ambas submetidas a fortes pressões de degradação. Nessas duas regiões foram investigadas as 225 áreas.

“Coletamos dados de mais de 70 mil árvores e de mais de 5 mil amostras de solo, madeira morta e outros componentes dos chamados estoques de carbono. Foi o maior estudo já realizado até o momento sobre a perda de carbono de florestas tropicais devido à extração de madeira e fogos acidentais”, disse Ferreira.

Segundo ela, a pesquisa contemplou quatro dos cinco compartimentos de carbono cujo estudo é recomendado pelo Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC, na sigla em inglês), da Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU): biomassa acima do solo (plantas vivas), matéria orgânica morta, serapilheira (camada que mistura fragmentos de folhas, galhos e outros materiais orgânicos em decomposição) e solos (até 30 centímetros de profundidade). “Só não medimos o estoque de carbono nas raízes”, disse.

Para efeito de comparação, foram consideradas cinco categorias de florestas: primária (totalmente intacta); com exploração de madeira; queimada; com exploração de madeira e queimada; e secundária (aquela que foi completamente cortada e cresceu novamente).

As florestas que sofreram perturbação, por corte ou queimada, apresentaram de 18% a 57% menos carbono do que as florestas primárias. Uma área de floresta primária chegou a ter mais de 300 toneladas de carbono por hectare, enquanto as áreas de floresta queimada e explorada para madeira tiveram, no máximo, 200 toneladas por hectare, e, em média, menos de 100 toneladas de carbono por hectare.

Corte seletivo tradicional
O roteiro da degradação foi bem estabelecido pelos pesquisadores. O ponto de partida é, frequentemente, a extração de madeiras de alto valor comercial, como o mogno e o ipê; essas árvores são cortadas de forma seletiva, mas sua retirada impacta dezenas de árvores vizinhas.

Deflagrada a exploração, formam-se várias aberturas na cobertura vegetal, o que torna a floresta muito mais exposta ao sol e ao vento, e, portanto, muito mais seca e suscetível à propagação de fogos acidentais. O efeito é fortemente acentuado pela fragmentação da floresta em decorrência de pastagens e plantações.

A combinação dos efeitos pode, então, transformar a floresta em um mato denso, cheio de árvores e cipós de pequeno porte, mas com um estoque de carbono 40% menor do que o da floresta não perturbada.

“Existem, hoje, vários sistemas de corte seletivo, alguns um pouco menos impactantes do que outros. O sistema predominante, que foi aquele detectado em nosso estudo, associado ao diâmetro das árvores retiradas e à sua idade, pode subtrair da floresta uma enorme quantidade de carbono”, disse Plínio Barbosa de Camargo, diretor da Divisão de Funcionamento de Ecossistemas Tropicais do Centro de Energia Nuclear na Agricultura (Cena) da Universidade de São Paulo (USP) e membro da coordenação da área de Biologia da FAPESP, que também assinou o artigo publicado na Global ChangeBiology.

“Por mais que recomendemos no sentido contrário, na hora do manejo efetivo acabam sendo retiradas as árvores com diâmetros muito grandes, em menor quantidade. Em outra pesquisa, medimos a idade das árvores com carbono 14. Uma árvore cujo tronco apresente o diâmetro de um metro com certeza tem mais de 300 ou 400 anos. Não adianta retirar essa árvore e imaginar que ela possa ser substituída em 30, 40 ou 50 anos”, comentou Camargo.

A degradação em curso torna-se ainda mais preocupante no contexto da mudança climática global. “O próximo passo é entender melhor como essas florestas degradadas responderão a outras formas de distúrbios causados pelo homem, como períodos de seca mais severos e estações de chuva com maiores níveis de precipitação devido às mudanças climáticas”, afirmou o pesquisador britânico Jos Barlow, da Lancaster University, um dos coordenadores desse estudo e um dos responsáveis pelo Projeto Temático ECOFOR: Biodiversidade e funcionamento de ecossistemas em áreas alteradas pelo homem nas Florestas Amazônica e Atlântica.

Além dos pesquisadores já citados, assinaram também o artigo da Global ChangeBiologyToby Alan Gardner (Universityof Cambridge e Stockholm EnvironmentInstitute), Carlos Eduardo Cerri e Mariana Durigan (Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz/USP), Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de Aragão (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais e UniversityofExeter), Raimundo Cosme de Oliveira Junior (Embrapa Amazônia Oriental) e Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira (Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi).

O artigo A large-scalefieldassessmentofcarbon stocks in human-modified tropical forests (doi: 10.1111/gcb.12627), de Erika Berenguer e outros, pode ser lido em http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12627/full.

(Agência Fapesp)

Mudanças climáticas já causam queda da produtividade agrícola no mundo (Fapesp)

Avaliação é de Jerry Hatfield, diretor do Laboratório Nacional de Agricultura e Meio Ambiente do Departamento de Agricultura dos Estados Unidos (foto:Eduardo Cesar/FAPESP)

03/06/2014

Por Elton Alisson

Agência FAPESP – As mudanças climáticas têm causado alterações nas fases de reprodução e de desenvolvimento de diferentes culturas agrícolas, entre elas milho, trigo e café. E os impactos dessas alterações já se refletem na queda da produtividade no setor agrícola em países como Brasil e Estados Unidos.

A avaliação foi feita por pesquisadores participantes do Workshop on Impacts of Global Climate Change on Agriculture and Livestock , realizado no dia 27 de maio, no auditório da FAPESP.

Promovido pelo Programa FAPESP de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais, o objetivo do evento foi reunir pesquisadores do Brasil e dos Estados Unidos para compartilhar conhecimentos e experiências em pesquisas sobre o impactos das mudanças climáticas globais na agricultura e na pecuária.

“Sabemos há muito tempo que as mudanças climáticas terão impactos nas culturas agrícolas de forma direta e indireta”, disse Jerry Hatfield, diretor do Laboratório Nacional de Agricultura e Meio Ambiente do Departamento de Agricultura dos Estados Unidos (USDA, na sigla em inglês). “A questão é saber quais serão o impacto e a magnitude dessas mudanças nos diferentes países produtores agrícolas”, disse o pesquisador em sua palestra no evento.

De acordo com Hatfield, um dos principais impactos observados nos Estados Unidos é a queda na produtividade de culturas como o milho e o trigo. O país é o primeiro e o terceiro maior produtor mundial desses grãos, respectivamente. “A produção de trigo [nos Estados Unidos] não atinge mais grandes aumentos de safra como os obtidos entre as décadas de 1960 e 1980”, afirmou.

Uma das razões para a queda de produtividade dessa e de outras culturas agrícolas no mundo, na avaliação do pesquisador, é o aumento da temperatura durante a fase de crescimento e de polinização.

As plantas de trigo, soja, milho, arroz, algodão e tomate têm diferentes faixas de temperatura ideal para os períodos vegetativo – de germinação da semente até o crescimento da planta – e reprodutivo – iniciado a partir da floração e formação de sementes.

O milho, por exemplo, não tolera altas temperaturas na fase reprodutiva. Já a soja é mais tolerante a temperaturas elevadas nesse estágio, comparou Hatfield.

O que se observa em diferentes países, contudo, é um aumento da frequência de dias mais quentes, com temperatura até 5 ºC mais altas do que a média registrada em anos anteriores, justamente na fase de crescimento e de polinização.

“Observamos diversos casos de fracasso na polinização de arroz, trigo e milho em razão do aumento da temperatura nessa fase. E, se o aumento de temperatura ocorrer com déficit hídrico, o impacto pode ser exacerbado”, avaliou.

Segundo Hatfield, a temperatura noturna mínima tem aumentado mais do que a temperatura máxima à noite. A mudança causa impacto na respiração de plantas à noite e reduz sua capacidade de fotossíntese durante o dia, apontou.

Pesquisas com milho

Em um estudo realizado no laboratório de Hatfield no USDA em um rizontron – equipamento para a análise de raízes de plantas no meio de cultivo –, pesquisadores mantiveram três diferentes variedades de milho em uma câmara 4 ºC mais quente do que outra com temperatura normal, para avaliar o impacto do aumento da temperatura nas fases vegetativa e reprodutiva da planta.

“Constatamos que a fisiologia da planta é muito afetada por aumento de temperatura principalmente na fase reprodutiva”, contou o pesquisador.

Em outro experimento, os pesquisadores mantiveram uma variedade de milho cultivada nos Estados Unidos em uma câmara com temperatura 3 ºC acima da que a planta tolera na fase de crescimento, em que é determinado o tamanho da espiga.

O aumento causou uma redução de 15 dias no período de preenchimento dos grãos de milho e interrupção na capacidade da planta de completar esse processo, o que se refletiu em queda de produtividade.

“Observamos que, se as plantas forem expostas a uma temperatura noturna relativamente alta no período de preenchimento dos grãos, essa fase de desenvolvimento é interrompida”, afirmou Hatfield.

“O problema não é a temperatura média a que a planta pode ficar exposta na fase reprodutiva, mas a temperatura mínima. Precisamos entender melhor essa interação das culturas agrícolas com o ambiente e o clima para aumentar a resiliência delas à elevação da temperatura e à frequência de eventos climáticos extremos”, avaliou.


Impactos no Brasil

No Brasil, as mudanças climáticas já modificam a geografia da produção agrícola, afirmou Hilton Silveira Pinto, diretor do Centro de Pesquisas Meteorológicas e Climáticas Aplicadas à Agricultura (Cepagri), da Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp).

O ano passado foi o mais seco desde 1988 – quando o Cepagri iniciou suas medições climáticas. Registrou-se uma média de 1.186 milímetros de chuva contra 1.425 milímetros observados nos anos anteriores. O mês mais crítico do ano foi dezembro, quando choveu 83 milímetros. A média para o mês é 207 milímetros, comparou Silveira Pinto.

“O final de ano muito seco atrapalhou bastante a agricultura em São Paulo, porque a época de plantio dos agricultores daqui é justamente no período entre outubro e novembro”, disse Silveira Pinto durante sua palestra.

“O plantio de algumas culturas deverá ser atrasado, porque há uma variabilidade bastante sensível no regime pluviométrico das áreas em que determinadas culturas podem ser plantadas”, afirmou.

Segundo o pesquisador, a partir dos anos 2000 não foi registrada mais geada em praticamente nenhuma região de São Paulo, evidenciando um aumento da temperatura no estado.

Um reflexo dessa mudança é a migração da produção do café em São Paulo e Minas Gerais para regiões mais elevadas, com temperaturas mais propícias para o florescimento da planta. A cada 100 metros de altitude, a temperatura diminui cerca de 0,6 ºC, segundo Silveira Pinto.

Durante o período de florescimento do café, quando os botões florais tornam-se grãos de café, a planta não pode ser submetida a temperaturas acima de 32 ºC. Apenas uma tarde com essa temperatura nesse período é suficiente para que a flor seja abortada e não forme o grão.

“O registro de temperaturas acima de 32 ºC tem ocorrido com mais frequência na região cafeeira de São Paulo. Com o aquecimento global, deverá aumentar entre 5 e 10 vezes a incidência de tardes quentes no florescimento da planta”, disse Silveira Pinto. “Isso pode fazer com que não seja mais viável produzir café nas partes mais baixas de São Paulo nas próximas décadas.”

“A produção do café no Brasil deve migrar para a Região Sul”, afirmou. “O café brasileiro deverá ser produzido nos próximos anos em estados como Paraná e Santa Catarina.”

Abelhas “biônicas” vão ajudar a monitorar mudanças climáticas na Amazônia (O Globo)

JC e-mail 4966, de 04 de junho de 2014

Microssensores instalados em insetos vão colher dados sobre seu comportamento e do ambiente

Nas suas idas e vindas das colmeias, as abelhas interagem com boa parte do ambiente em sua volta, além de realizarem um importante trabalho de polinização de plantas que muito contribui para a manutenção da biodiversidade e a produção de alimentos em todo mundo. Agora, enxames delas vão assumir um outro papel, o de estações meteorológicas “biônicas”, para ajudar a monitorar os efeitos das mudanças climáticas na Amazônia e em seu próprio comportamento.

Desde a semana passada, pesquisadores do Instituto Tecnológico Vale (ITV) e da CSIRO, agência federal de pesquisas científicas da Austrália, estão instalando microssensores em 400 abelhas de um apiário no município de Santa Bárbara do Pará, a uma hora de distância de Belém, na primeira fase da experiência, que também visa descobrir as causas do chamado Distúrbio de Colapso de Colônias (CCD, na sigla em inglês), que só nos Estados Unidos já provocou a morte de 35% desses insetos criados em cativeiro.

– Não sabemos como as abelhas vão se comportar diante das projeções de aumento da temperatura e mudanças no clima devido ao aquecimento global – conta o físico Paulo de Souza, pesquisador-visitante do ITV e da CSIRO e responsável pela experiência. – Assim, entender como elas vão se adaptar a estas mudanças é importante para podermos estimar o que pode acontecer no futuro.

Souza explica que os microssensores usados no experimento são capazes de gerar a própria energia e captar e armazenar dados não só do comportamento das abelhas como da temperatura, umidade e nível de insolação do ambiente. Tudo isso espremido em um pequeno quadrado com 2,5 milímetros de lado com peso de 5,4 miligramas, o que faz com que as abelhas, da espécie Apis mellifera africanizadas, com em média 70 miligramas de peso, sintam como se estivessem “carregando uma mochila nas costas”.

– Mas isso não afeta o comportamento delas, que se adaptam muito rapidamente à instalação dos microssensores – garante.

Já a partir no próximo semestre, os pesquisadores deverão começar a instalar os microssensores, que custam US$ 0,30 (cerca de R$ 0,70) cada, em espécies nativas da Amazônia não dotadas de ferrão. Segundo Souza, estas abelhas são ainda mais importantes para a polinização das plantas da região, e são também mais sensíveis a mudanças no ambiente. Assim, a escala da experiência deve aumentar, com a utilização de 10 mil dos pequenos aparelhos ao longo de várias gerações de abelhas, que vivem em média dois meses.

O tamanho dos atuais sensores, porém, não permite que o dispositivo seja instalado em insetos menores, como mosquitos. Por isso, o grupo de Paulo de Souza já trabalha numa nova geração de microssensores com um décimo de milímetro, ou o equivalente a um grão de areia. Segundo o pesquisador, os novos sensores, que devem ficar prontos em quatro anos, terão as mesmas capacidades dos atuais, com a vantagem de serem “ativos”, isto é, vão poder transmitir em tempo real os dados coletados.

– Quando tivermos os sensores deste tamanho, poderemos aplicá-los na forma de spray nas colmeias, além de usá-los para monitorar outras espécies de insetos, como mosquitos transmissores de doenças – diz. – Mas a vantagem principal é que com eles vamos poder fazer das abelhas e outros insetos verdadeiras estações meteorológicas ambulantes, permitindo um monitoramento ambiental numa escala sem precedentes, já que cada abelha ou mosquito vai atuar como um agente de campo.

(Cesar Baima / O Globo)
http://oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/ciencia/abelhas-bionicas-vao-ajudar-monitorar-mudancas-climaticas-na-amazonia-12712798#ixzz33gDI4XQy

Sociedade pode opinar em contribuição brasileira para acordo do clima (MCTI)

JC e-mail 4967, de 05 de junho de 2014

A consulta pública disponível no site do Ministério das Relações Exteriores (MRE)

Uma consulta sobre mudanças climáticas está disponível no site do Ministério das Relações Exteriores (MRE). O objetivo da consulta à sociedade civil é subsidiar o processo de preparação da contribuição que o Brasil levará à mesa de negociações do novo acordo sob a Convenção-Quadro das Nações Unidas sobre Mudança do Clima (UNFCCC, na sigla em inglês), de forma a ampliar a transparência do processo e dar oportunidade a que todos os setores interessados da sociedade participem e opinem.

A consulta será realizada em duas fases. Esta primeira, aberta até 18 de julho, busca definir devem ser os elementos principais da chamada “contribuição nacionalmente determinada” brasileira. São perguntas abertas com base em um questionário orientador, e comentários adicionais podem ser enviados por e-mail.

Com base nos aportes recebidos, será elaborado um relatório preliminar com indicação de possíveis opções e modalidades para a contribuição nacional – compromisso a ser assumido pelo Brasil no contexto da negociação internacional. Na segunda fase, esse documento será submetido a uma nova rodada de consultas.

Estão em andamento negociações de um novo acordo sob a convenção, a serem finalizadas em 2015, para entrada em vigor a partir de 2020. Nesse contexto, a 19ª Conferência das Partes na UNFCCC (COP-19, realizada em Varsóvia, Polônia) instou os países signatários a iniciar ou intensificar as preparações domésticas de suas pretendidas contribuições ao novo acordo e a comunicá-las antes da COP-21.

(Ascom do MCTI, com informações do MRE)

Humans, not climate, to blame for Ice Age-era disappearance of large mammals, study concludes (Science Daily)

Date: June 4, 2014

Source: Aarhus University

Summary: Was it humankind or climate change that caused the extinction of a considerable number of large mammals about the time of the last Ice Age? Researchers have carried out the first global analysis of the extinction of the large animals, and the conclusion is clear — humans are to blame. The study unequivocally points to humans as the cause of the mass extinction of large animals all over the world during the course of the last 100,000 years.

Skeleton of a giant ground sloth at the Los Angeles County Museum of Natural History, circa 1920. Credit: Public Domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Was it humankind or climate change that caused the extinction of a considerable number of large mammals about the time of the last Ice Age? Researchers at Aarhus University have carried out the first global analysis of the extinction of the large animals, and the conclusion is clear — humans are to blame. A new study unequivocally points to humans as the cause of the mass extinction of large animals all over the world during the course of the last 100,000 years.

“Our results strongly underline the fact that human expansion throughout the world has meant an enormous loss of large animals,” says Postdoctoral Fellow Søren Faurby, Aarhus University.

Was it due to climate change?

For almost 50 years, scientists have been discussing what led to the mass extinction of large animals (also known as megafauna) during and immediately after the last Ice Age.

One of two leading theories states that the large animals became extinct as a result of climate change. There were significant climate changes, especially towards the end of the last Ice Age — just as there had been during previous Ice Ages — and this meant that many species no longer had the potential to find suitable habitats and they died out as a result. However, because the last Ice Age was just one in a long series of Ice Ages, it is puzzling that a corresponding extinction of large animals did not take place during the earlier ones.

Theory of overkill

The other theory concerning the extinction of the animals is ‘overkill’. Modern man spread from Africa to all parts of the world during the course of a little more than the last 100,000 years. In simple terms, the overkill hypothesis states that modern man exterminated many of the large animal species on arrival in the new continents. This was either because their populations could not withstand human hunting, or for indirect reasons such as the loss of their prey, which were also hunted by humans.

First global mapping

In their study, the researchers produced the first global analysis and relatively fine-grained mapping of all the large mammals (with a body weight of at least 10 kg) that existed during the period 132,000-1,000 years ago — the period during which the extinction in question took place. They were thus able to study the geographical variation in the percentage of large species that became extinct on a much finer scale than previously achieved.

The researchers found that a total of 177 species of large mammals disappeared during this period — a massive loss. Africa ‘only’ lost 18 species and Europe 19, while Asia lost 38 species, Australia and the surrounding area 26, North America 43 and South America a total of 62 species of large mammals.

The extinction of the large animals took place in virtually all climate zones and affected cold-adapted species such as woolly mammoths, temperate species such as forest elephants and giant deer, and tropical species such as giant cape buffalo and some giant sloths. It was observed on virtually every continent, although a particularly large number of animals became extinct in North and South America, where species including sabre-toothed cats, mastodons, giant sloths and giant armadillos disappeared, and in Australia, which lost animals such as giant kangaroos, giant wombats and marsupial lions. There were also fairly large losses in Europe and Asia, including a number of elephants, rhinoceroses and giant deer.

Weak climate effect

The results show that the correlation between climate change — i.e. the variation in temperature and precipitation between glacials and interglacials — and the loss of megafauna is weak, and can only be seen in one sub-region, namely Eurasia (Europe and Asia). “The significant loss of megafauna all over the world can therefore not be explained by climate change, even though it has definitely played a role as a driving force in changing the distribution of some species of animals. Reindeer and polar foxes were found in Central Europe during the Ice Age, for example, but they withdrew northwards as the climate became warmer,” says Postdoctoral Fellow Christopher Sandom, Aarhus University.

Extinction linked to humans

On the other hand, the results show a very strong correlation between the extinction and the history of human expansion. “We consistently find very large rates of extinction in areas where there had been no contact between wildlife and primitive human races, and which were suddenly confronted by fully developed modern humans (Homo sapiens). In general, at least 30% of the large species of animals disappeared from all such areas,” says Professor Jens-Christian Svenning, Aarhus University.

The researchers’ geographical analysis thereby points very strongly at humans as the cause of the loss of most of the large animals.

The results also draw a straight line from the prehistoric extinction of large animals via the historical regional or global extermination due to hunting (American bison, European bison, quagga, Eurasian wild horse or tarpan, and many others) to the current critical situation for a considerable number of large animals as a result of poaching and hunting (e.g. the rhino poaching epidemic).

Journal Reference:

  1. C. Sandom, S. Faurby, B. Sandel, J.-C. Svenning. Global late Quaternary megafauna extinctions linked to humans, not climate changeProceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2014; 281 (1787): 20133254 DOI:10.1098/rspb.2013.3254

Plantas brasileiras podem ajudar a enfrentar impactos das mudanças climáticas (Fapesp)

Estudo do genoma de espécies do Semiárido e do Cerrado (como opequi) que são tolerantes a temperaturas elevadas e à escassez hídrica pode contribuir para o melhoramento genético de culturas como soja, milho, arroz e feijão, diz pesquisador da Embrapa (foto: Wikipedia)

02/06/2014

Por Noêmia Lopes

Agência FAPESP – A seriguela e o umbuzeiro, árvores comuns do Semiárido nordestino, e a sucupira-preta, do Cerrado, fazem parte de um grupo de plantas brasileiras que poderão desempenhar um papel importante para a agricultura no enfrentamento das consequências das mudanças climáticas. Elas estão entre as espécies do país com grande capacidade adaptativa, tolerantes à escassez hídrica e a temperaturas elevadas.

De acordo com Eduardo Assad, pesquisador do Centro Nacional de Pesquisa Tecnológica em Informática para a Agricultura (CNPTIA) da Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa), o estudo do genoma dessas espécies pode ajudar a tornar culturas como soja, milho, arroz e feijão tão resistentes quanto elas aos extremos climáticos. Assad foi um dos palestrantes no quarto encontro do Ciclo de Conferências 2014 do programa BIOTA-FAPESP Educação, realizado no dia 22 de maio, em São Paulo.

“O Cerrado já foi muito mais quente e seco e árvores como pau-terra, pequi e faveiro, além da sucupira-preta, sobreviveram. Precisamos estudar o genoma dessas árvores, identificar e isolar os genes que as tornam tão adaptáveis. Isso pode significar, um dia, a chance de melhorar geneticamente culturas como soja e milho, tornando-as igualmente resistentes”, disse. “Não é fácil, mas precisamos começar.”

Assad destaca que o Brasil é líder em espécies resistentes. “O maior armazém do mundo de genes tolerantes ao aquecimento global está aqui, no Cerrado e no Semiárido Nordestino”, disse em sua palestra O impacto potencial das mudanças climáticas na agricultura.

Os modelos de pesquisa realizados pela Embrapa, muitos deles feitos em colaboração com instituições de outros 40 países, apontam que a redução de produtividade de culturas como milho, soja e arroz decorrente das mudanças climáticas deve se acentuar nas próximas décadas. “Isso vale para as variedades genéticas atuais. Uma das soluções é buscar genes alternativos para trabalhar com melhoramento”, disse Assad.

Outras plantas do Cerrado com grande capacidade adaptativa lembradas pelo pesquisador são a árvore pacari e os frutos do baru e da cagaita. No Semiárido Nordestino, árvores como a seriguela, o umbuzeiro e a cajazeira foram apontadas como opções importantes não só para estudos genéticos como também para programas voltados à geração de renda pela população local.

“Em vez de produzir culturas exóticas à região, é preciso investir naquelas que já fazem parte da biodiversidade nordestina e têm potencial de superar as consequências do aquecimento global”, adiantou Assad.

Para o melhoramento de espécies, de forma a que se tornem tolerantes ao estresse abiótico, a Embrapa planeja lançar, em 2015, uma soja resistente à deficiência hídrica, produzida a partir de um gene existente em uma planta do Japão. “Testamos essa variedade este ano, no Paraná, em um período sem chuvas. Ainda há estudos a serem feitos, mas ela está se saindo muito bem”, disse o pesquisador.

Assad também citou avanços empreendidos pelo Instituto Agronômico do Paraná (Iapar), que já lançou quatro cultivares de feijão com tolerância a temperaturas elevadas, além de pesquisas feitas no município de Varginha (MG) em busca de variáveis mais tolerantes para o café.


Prejuízos e mudanças no sistema produtivo

Cálculos da Embrapa feitos com base na produtividade média da soja mostram que somente esse grão acumulou mais de US$ 8,4 bilhões em perdas relacionadas às mudanças climáticas no Brasil entre 2003 e 2013. Já a produção de milho perdeu mais de US$ 5,2 bilhões no mesmo período.

A área considerada de baixo risco para o cultivo do café arábica deve diminuir 9,45% até 2020, causando prejuízos de R$ 882 milhões, e 17,15% até 2050, elevando as perdas para R$ 1,6 bilhão, de acordo com análises feitas na Embrapa e na Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp).

Diante dos prejuízos, outra solução apontada por Assad é a revisão do modelo produtivo agrícola. “A concentração de gases de efeito estufa na atmosfera aumentou mais de 20% nos últimos 30 anos, tornando indispensável a implantação de sistemas produtivos mais limpos”, disse à Agência FAPESP.

“O Brasil é muito respeitado nesse tema, em especial porque reduziu o desmatamento na Amazônia e, ao mesmo tempo, ampliou a produtividade na Região Amazônica”, disse.

Segundo Assad, isso abre canais de diálogo sobre a sustentabilidade na agricultura e sobre a adoção de estratégias como integração entre lavoura, pecuária e floresta, plantio direto na palha, uso de bactérias fixadoras de nitrogênio no solo, rochagem (uso de micro e macronutrientes para melhorar a fertilidade dos solos), aplicação de adubos organominerais, além do melhoramento genético.

“O confinamento do gado é outro ponto que está em discussão por pesquisadores e criadores em diversas partes do mundo. Ele pode resultar em menos emissão de gases de efeito estufa, mas torna o rebanho mais vulnerável à doença da vaca louca. Nesse caso, uma alternativa é a recuperação de pastos degradados”, afirmou Assad.

Estudos feitos na Embrapa Agrobiologia mostram que um quilo de carne produzido em pasto degradado emite mais de 32 quilos de CO2 equivalente por ano. Já em pasto recuperado a partir do que a agricultura de baixa emissão de carbono preconiza, a emissão por quilo de carne pode ser reduzida a três quilos de CO2 equivalente anuais.

“Isso mostra que ambientalistas, ruralistas, governo e setor privado precisam sentar e decidir o que fazer daqui em diante – qual sistema de produção adotar? Com ou sem pasto? Com ou sem árvores? Rotacionado ou não? São mudanças difíceis, de longo prazo, mas muitos agricultores já estão preocupados com essas questões, com os prejuízos que o aquecimento global pode trazer, e começam a buscar soluções”, disse.

Setor privado é essencial para adaptação às mudanças climáticas (Fapesp)

Para Laura Canevari, da Acclimatise, engajar empresas em discussões sobre o tema significa criar uma economia resiliente, assegurar empregos e desenvolvimento. Para isso, no entanto, cientistas devem traduzir conceitos em experiências reais (foto:Rogério Lima)

28/05/2014

Por Karina Toledo, de Fortaleza

Agência FAPESP – As mudanças climáticas são uma realidade cada vez mais difícil de ser ignorada e à humanidade resta adaptar-se para reduzir seu grau de vulnerabilidade. Diante dessa necessidade premente, cientistas têm se esforçado para engajar os formuladores de políticas públicas nas discussões sobre o tema. No entanto, pouca atenção é dada a um importante ator da sociedade: o setor privado.

A análise foi feita pela colombiana Laura Canevari, consultora em adaptação às mudanças climáticas, durante a conferência internacional Adaptation Futures 2014, ocorrida entre 12 e 16 de maio em Fortaleza. Formada em Ciências Marinhas, com mestrado em Manejo de Mudanças Climáticas pela University of Oxford, no Reino Unido, Canevari já atuou como militante, defendendo a necessidade de adaptação das zonas costeiras contra a elevação do nível do mar.

Atualmente, trabalha para a Acclimatise, empresa britânica que presta assistência técnica a instituições governamentais e empresas privadas no entendimento de riscos relacionados às mudanças climáticas e ajuda a identificar soluções de adaptação viáveis.

Na avaliação de Canevari, o setor público tem o importante papel de regulamentar e criar um ambiente adequado para que ações de adaptação aconteçam, mas é o setor privado que vai colocá-las em prática. A fim de engajar as empresas na empreitada, porém, os cientistas terão de adaptar sua linguagem e traduzir os conceitos científicos em experiências reais do cotidiano.

Leia abaixo trechos da entrevista concedida por ela à Agência FAPESP.

Agência FAPESP – Qual é a sua formação e área de atuação na Acclimatise? 
Laura Canevari – Sou formada em Ciências Marinhas e fiz mestrado em Manejo de Mudanças Climáticas na University of Oxford, no Reino Unido. Antes de começar a trabalhar na Acclimatise eu era uma grande defensora da necessidade de adaptação da zona costeira contra a elevação do nível do mar.

Agência FAPESP – Vocês trabalham mais com o setor público ou o privado?
Canevari – Inicialmente nosso foco era o setor privado, mas temos nos voltado mais ao setor público, pois as negociações internacionais estão mais focadas em adaptação e os governos estão mais preocupados com as mudanças climáticas. Recentemente, ajudamos a elaborar o Plano Nacional de Adaptação do Quênia, por exemplo. Ajudamos a desenvolver a estratégia de adaptação das cidades de Londres e Leeds [ambas no Reino Unido], Moscou e outras cinco na Rússia. Muitas vezes, o que fazemos para os governos é fomentar a capacidade institucional, ajudar a identificar lacunas e necessidades em nível institucional. Se um país quer começar a pensar em mudanças climáticas, quais são as coisas que as instituições têm de ser capazes de lidar, como coordenar informação entre diferentes ministérios, como coletar e armazenar informações, como usar serviços meteorológicos para obter dados precisos sobre mudanças climáticas. Atuamos em diferentes setores, como energia, transporte, varejo e cadeias de abastecimento.

Agência FAPESP – Em sua palestra você afirmou que a academia, no que se refere às discussões sobre adaptação às mudanças climáticas, está muito focada no setor público e deveria prestar mais atenção ao setor privado. Por que pensa assim? 
Canevari – Não penso que devemos parar de investir tempo e energia no setor público. Ele é importante, pois permite regular as ações de adaptação às mudanças climáticas necessárias e criar o suporte e o ambiente favorável para que elas aconteçam. Mas não deveríamos olhar para o setor público como o implementador dessas medidas. Quem realmente vai colocar em prática as soluções de adaptação é o setor privado. O setor público deve permitir às empresas investir mais seguramente nesse tipo de tópico. Não é a primeira vez que falo da necessidade de os acadêmicos mudarem sua mentalidade sobre quais são os mais importantes setores da sociedade com quem temos de dialogar. Mas nós, cientistas, tendemos a ficar em nossas zonas de conforto, onde falamos todos a mesma linguagem e lidamos com os problemas da mesma forma. E dialogar com o setor privado requer uma mudança no discurso sobre as questões climáticas. Falamos do ponto de vista de políticas públicas e com uma mentalidade acadêmica e isso não vai funcionar. Precisamos mudar a forma como concebemos os problemas e as soluções.

Agência FAPESP – Como os cientistas conseguirão o engajamento do setor privado? 
Canevari – Primeiro, precisamos reconhecer que esse é um importante ator, pois isso nos fará ter curiosidade sobre como ele pensa. Os acadêmicos costumam ficar muito fechados na academia, mas viram rapidamente a necessidade de disseminar a informação para os governos. Fizeram, então, o esforço de compreender o que ressoa com a governança para discutir questões que vêm da ciência e transformá-las em políticas públicas. Mas os acadêmicos precisam entender que o setor privado tem diferentes formas de conceber riscos e lidar com eles. Para um homem de negócios, lidar com riscos significa a continuidade de sua produção. Então falar sobre a continuidade do negócio é uma forma de abordar questões de adaptação sem usar esse termo. É preciso traduzir a linguagem. Falamos muito aqui sobre o cenário de “4 graus Celsius” [de elevação da temperatura terrestre até 2100] e parece que todos entendemos o que isso significa sob um ponto de vista ambiental. Mas o que os 4 graus Celsius significam para uma empresa? Nós fizemos uma análise de risco para um porto na Colômbia na qual olhamos o impacto do aumento das temperaturas na performance do maquinário que retira a carga dos barcos e leva para o estoque. Essas máquinas são sensíveis ao estresse térmico e não trabalham tão bem com muito calor. Em vez de ir para o setor privado e dizer: “Há uma ameaça de subir 4 graus Celsius”, devemos dizer que os maquinários vão começar a trabalhar de forma mais lenta e não serão tão eficientes em realizar o trabalho e isso vai afetar os lucros. No fim das contas, é preciso abordar a questão do lucro e de como a mudança climática vai afetar a performance empresarial. Outro ponto de muito apelo para as empresas é: como conseguirão manter sua licença social e ambiental para operar. Se a força de trabalho atua ao ar livre e há uma alta incidência de estresse térmico, há um risco de segurança ocupacional. A empresa pode perder a habilidade de operar em uma determinada área se não se preocupar em avaliar como o estresse térmico provocado pela elevação de temperatura afetará seus empregados. É um trabalho de transformar conceitos em experiências reais do cotidiano.

Agência FAPESP – Se é tudo uma questão de lucros, por que é importante estimular o setor privado a se adaptar? 
Canevari – Porque se trata de construir uma economia resiliente. Precisamos parar de ignorar o setor privado, pois ele é parte importante das comunidades e oferece empregos, bens e serviços. Quando pensamos nos fatores que determinam o bem-estar das sociedades, temos as políticas públicas que criam regulamentações, códigos de conduta para as pessoas interagirem umas com as outras de formas não agressivas, garantem liberdade de expressão, democracia, etc. Esses são componentes importantes, mas os produtos e serviços que as pessoas desejam adquirir também são. As pessoas também desejam estar empregadas, pois é uma forma de conseguir reconhecimento na sociedade. Não é apenas pelo dinheiro em si, mas porque você assume um papel social quando tem um emprego. Por outro lado, o setor privado tem o dinheiro e o potencial de investir em atividades que podem ter implicações que vão além da própria organização.

Agência FAPESP – Já é possível perceber ações de adaptação no setor privado?
Canevari – Há dois tipos de empresas que estão liderando ações de adaptação. No primeiro, estão as empresas que fizeram grandes investimentos em estruturas de longa duração, como petrolíferas, empresas de energia e portos. São companhias que esperam que aquelas instalações durem 30 ou 40 anos. Nesse tipo de empresa também costuma haver muita pressão dos stakeholders e da sociedade, que espera padrões elevados em termos ambientais e sociais. Do segundo tipo fazem parte as empresas que estão se adaptando e que são as sensíveis a fatores climáticos, como as que produzem ou comercializam bens agrícolas e empresas que dependem fortemente de água. São empresas que já sentem fortemente os impactos das mudanças no clima e respondem a eles como forma de sobreviver, pois, se não melhorarem seus padrões de eficiência no uso de energia e água, poderão ter conflitos com a comunidade em que estão inseridas e com a mídia. Mas não há muita coisa sendo feita na América Latina, o que é uma pena, pois há grandes oportunidades em países como o Brasil, onde é possível começar da maneira correta. Muitos novos investimentos em infraestrutura podem ser feitos à prova do clima. É muito mais barato do que fazer a adaptação depois que já estiver pronto. Temos uma oportunidade que os países desenvolvidos já perderam, que é começar na direção certa. Temos experiências e aprendizados de outros países, sabemos o que vale a pena fazer, então é só colocar em prática.

Agência FAPESP – Há quem diga que foi o próprio setor privado o responsável pelas mudanças climáticas.
Canevari – Podemos dizer que o setor privado é responsável pela maior parte das emissões de gases-estufa e a mudança climática é basicamente causada por eles. Mas estamos falando de apenas cerca de 20 grandes empresas, responsáveis por mais de 80% das emissões. A maioria é da área de óleo e gás, mineração e agricultura. Então, estamos falamos de um pequeno número de empresas em oposição a uma enorme gama de outras companhias que compõem o setor privado. Há uma enorme diversidade. Por que também não estamos culpando os governos por não criarem as regulamentações apropriadas para essas empresas? Muitos governos reduzem a rigidez de sua regulamentação para atrair essas empresas poluidoras. Penso que os governos também são responsáveis por permitir que essas empresas atuem como bem entendem. A empresa age de acordo com os seus interesses. Cabe ao governo regular essas atividades e garantir que estejam dentro de limites aceitáveis.

POLL: Tea Party Members Really, Really Don’t Trust Scientists (Mother Jones)

The “science gap” between traditional Republicans and tea partiers is huge in a new survey of New Hampshire residents.

—By 

Tue May 20, 2014 10:46 AM EDT

Kevin Y

It’s one of the biggest trends in US politics over the last decade: A growing left-right split over the validity of scientific information. This “science gap” is apparent most of all on the issue of climate change, but the problem is much broader, encompassing topics ranging from evolution to the safety and effectiveness of condoms in preventing sexually transmitted diseases.

Yet even those of us who know how politicized science has become may be surprised by some new polling data out of the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire. There, survey researcher Lawrence Hamilton has run a new analysis of 568 New Hampshire residents, asking them a variety of questions including the following: “Would you say that you trust, don’t trust, or are unsure about scientists as a source of information about environmental issues?” Hamilton then broke down the responses by party, separating out members of the tea party from more mainstream Republicans. And look at the result:

Lawrence Hamilton, 2014.

This is pretty striking: The first three political groups—Democrats, independents, and non-tea party Republicans—all trust scientists on the environment. But then you come to tea party members, and suddenly, distrust in scientists soars. The numbers are stark: 60 percent of traditional Republicans trust scientists on the environment, versus only 28 percent of tea partiers.

Hamilton says he’s surprised by the strength of these results. “I didn’t realize it would be at the level of division that it was,” says Hamilton. He adds that while Republicans and tea partiers in New Hampshire aren’t precisely the same in all respects as they are elsewhere in America, “in general, New Hampshire is not drastically unrepresentative.” When it comes to tea partiers and more traditional Republicans on the national level, Hamilton says that he “would expect similar gaps to show up.”

So what’s going on with this plummeting trust in scientists on the ideological right? The main factor, Hamilton thinks, is that the highly polarized climate issue is leading climate deniers to break up with scientists in general. “Climate change is sort of bleeding over into a lower trust in science across a range of issues,” says Hamilton. That means the consequences are not limited to the climate issue. “The critiques of climate science work by often arguing that science is corrupt, and then that spills over to other kinds of science,” Hamilton observes.Prior research has found that watching Fox News, in particular, leads to a declining trust in climate scientists.

The new data on trust in science comprise just one part of Hamilton’s new report. The study also looked at partisan gaps on a number of other scientific issues, and compared the size of those gaps with those that exist on non-scientific issues. And again, the result was pretty surprising: In New Hampshire, there is a bigger partisan divide over climate change and whether environmental scientists are trustworthy than there is over abortion and the death penalty. Note that in this analysis, unlike in the earlier figure, Republican responses include both those of traditional Republicans and those of tea partiers. It is the latter who are driving much of the partisan gap on issues like trust in science:

Lawrence Hamilton, 2014

Last week, we got some of the scariest news about global warming yet: We may have already helped set in motion an irreversible destabilization of the West Antarctic ice sheet, thus locking in 10 or more feet of sea level rise over the coming centuries. It’s the kind of news that ought to serve as a wake up call for all Americans, causing them to stop and say: Enough. We’ve got to do something here.

But as these data make clear, when it comes to science, there’s no such thing as “all Americans” any more. There are highly polarized camps, divided over the very validity of the information.

‘We Don’t Want to Die Again’: Yanomami Leader Kopenawa (Indian Country Today Media Network)

Courtesy Survival International. Davi Kopenawa, a Yanomami shaman, who has been fighting for his peoples rights for more than 20 years will be in California in April to speak about protecting the rainforest and his spiritual life. Kopenawa is seen here surrounded by Yanomami children.

5/16/14

“It’s very important to talk to everybody here. We don’t want what happened 500 years ago to happen again. We, the Yanomami people, don’t want to die again,” said Davi Kopenawa in an interview with ICTMN at the end of April.

Kopenawa, an internationally known advocate for the Yanomami people of Brazil and the rainforest, was in San Francisco at the end of April to meet with activists, scholars and political officials to alert them to an escalating crisis involving gold miners in Yanomami territory and to speak about his book “The Falling Sky.”

For the interview on April 25th, Kopenawa sat down with ICTMN along with his interpreter and friend, Fiona Watson, Research Director for Survival Internationaland longtime ally of the Yanomami and other indigenous peoples of Brazil.

During the 35 minute conversation Kopenawa began by asserting how dangerous the gold mining operations have been for the people and the environment in their territory.

“The gold miners are people with lots of vices. They bring alcohol, they bring illnesses. They couldn’t find jobs in the cities and got no help from the government and the only thing they want to do is get gold from Indigenous Peoples territories. They have spread all over our land.

“The gold miners (garimpeiros) only work in the rivers,” he explained. “They use mercury to clean and separate the gold from the sand. When they wash the gold with mercury, the mercury sinks to the bottom of the river bed. The communities who live downstream use this water for drinking, washing and bathing. The fish also swallow mercury when they are eating which in turn affects the people who eat the fish. So the Yanomami get ill from mercury poisoning. That’s how the mercury contaminates our place.”

Kopenawa also emphasized that there are laws currently being proposed in Brazil that would make it easier for miners and others to invade indigenous territories. Watson noted that the indigenous communities and their allies such as SI are very worried about three potential laws in particular: PEC 215 is a constitutional amendment that would allow congress, which has members influenced by a strong anti-indigenous lobby, to be involved with demarcation of land; Portaria 303 which would prohibit extending any indigenous territory and that indigenous rights to use their resources would not extend to preventing large scale hydro-electric and mining projects; and Law Project 1610 would open up all indigenous territories to large scale mining (and there were already hundreds of petitions to start mining in Yanomani territory).

“I will talk about these things,” Kopenawa said in regards to his then upcoming presentations (he later spoke with California Governor Jerry Brown about the mining issues).

“I want to talk about the concerns of the Yanomami people. We are beginning to get nervous and sad because the government is preparing to invade our territory even though it is demarcated and recognized by law.”

He stated that his book, “The Falling Sky,” explains those concerns and how the Yanomami are guardians of their region of the earth.

“It is important to explain this to the city people who know about their land and mountains and places but we Yanomami needed a book to explain things to white people so they would know our story. We are guardians of the knowledge of our region of earth, of the mountains and the rivers. For us, the forest is a thing of great beauty and it is our story. Some white people think that the Yanomami know nothing, so for this reason I thought about writing a book about the traditional knowledge of the Yanomami, my people.”

At the end of the interview, Kopenawa re-iterated his principal message to the people of the United States.

“All we Indigenous Peoples in Brazil are very worried because of the project to mine in the Yanomami’s territory and in the territories of other indigenous brothers and sisters. We Yanomami people don’t want mining because we don’t want to suffer and die of the white peoples’ diseases. Mining will not bring positive benefits to the Indigenous Peoples. It will only bring a lot of diseases and problems and fights with the indigenous people. For this reason all we Indigenous Peoples are against mining.

“I, Davi Kopenawa Yanomami, an indigenous leader, ask for support from the American people not to allow mining to start in the Yanomami territory. I would like you to help to defend the lungs of the earth. I thank you for your strength. Thank you very much.”

Read more athttp://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/2014/05/16/yanomami-leader-kopenawa-we-dont-want-die-again-154849

Wyoming is 1st state to reject science standards (AP)

By BOB MOEN

May 8, 2014 6:24 PM

CHEYENNE, Wyo. (AP) — Wyoming, the nation’s top coal-producing state, is the first to reject new K-12 science standards proposed by national education groups mainly because of global warming components.

The Wyoming Board of Education decided recently that the Next Generation Science Standards need more review after questions were raised about the treatment of man-made global warming.

Board President Ron Micheli said the review will look into whether “we can’t get some standards that are Wyoming standards and standards we all can be proud of.”

Others see the decision as a blow to science education in Wyoming.

“The science standards are acknowledged to be the best to prepare our kids for the future, and they are evidence based, peer reviewed, etc. Why would we want anything less for Wyoming?” Marguerite Herman, a proponent of the standards, said.

Twelve states have adopted the standards since they were released in April 2013 with the goal of improving science education, and Wyoming is the first to reject them, Chad Colby, spokesman for Achieve, one of the organizations that helped write the standards.

“The standards are what students should be expected to know at the end of each grade, but how a teacher teaches them is still up to the local districts and the states, and even the teachers in most cases,” Colby said.

But the global warming and evolution components have created pushback around the country.

Amy Edmonds, of the Wyoming Liberty Group, said teaching “one view of what is not settled science about global warming” is just one of a number of problems with the standards.

“I think Wyoming can do far better,” Edmonds said.

Wyoming produces almost 40 percent of the nation’s coal, with much of it used by power plants to provide electricity around the nation. Minerals taxes on coal provided $1 billion to the state and local governments in 2012 and coal mining supports some 6,900 jobs in the state.

Burning coal to generate electricity produces large amounts of CO2, which is considered a heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere. Most scientists recognize that man-made CO2 emissions contribute to global warming. However, the degree to which it can be blamed for global warming is in dispute among some scientists.

Gov. Matt Mead has called federal efforts to curtail greenhouse emissions a “war on coal” and has said that he’s skeptical about man-made climate change.

This past winter, state lawmakers approved budget wording that sought to stop adoption of the standards.

“Wyoming is certainly unique in having legislators and the governor making comments about perceived impacts on the fossil fuel industry of kids learning climate science, and unique in acting on that one objection to prohibit consideration of the package of standards, of which climate science is a small component,” said John Friedrich, a member of the national organization Climate Parents, which supports the standards.

Friedrich and Colby noted that oil and gas industry giants Exxon Mobile and Chevron support the standards.

Opponents argue the standards incorrectly assert that man-made emissions are the main cause of global warming and shouldn’t be taught in a state that derives much of its school funding from the energy industry.

“I think those concepts should be taught in science; I just think they should be taught as theory and not as scientific fact,” state Rep. Matt Teeters, R-Lingle, said.

Paul Bruno, an eighth-grade California science teacher who reviewed the standards for the Thomas B. Fordham Institute, said the climate-change components can cause confusion because they are difficult to navigate.

The Fordham Institute, a conservative think tank, gave the standards a “C” grade.

While the standards overall are “mediocre,” Bruno said they are being “a little bit unfairly impugned on more controversial topics like climate change or evolution.”

The standards for high school assert that models predict human activity is contributing to climate change, but leave an “appropriate amount of uncertainty” and note that it’s important to factor in costs, reliability and other issues when considering global warming solutions, he said.

“And so I think it’s fair to say that the Next Generation Standards at least make gestures in the direction of wanting to accommodate those potentially skeptical viewpoints, particularly when it comes to things like energy production,” Bruno said.

West Antarctic Ice Sheet Is Collapsing (Science)

12 May 2014 6:15 pm

Linchpin. Thwaites Glacier (shown) in West Antarctica is connected with its neighbors in ways that threaten a wholesale collapse if it recedes too far inland.

NASA. Linchpin. Thwaites Glacier (shown) in West Antarctica is connected with its neighbors in ways that threaten a wholesale collapse if it recedes too far inland.

A disaster may be unfolding—in slow motion. Earlier this week, two teams of scientists reported that the Thwaites Glacier, a keystone holding the massive West Antarctic Ice Sheet together, is starting to collapse. In the long run, they say, the entire ice sheet is doomed, which would release enough meltwater to raise sea levels by more than 3 meters.

One team combined data on the recent retreat of the 182,000-square-kilometer Thwaites Glacier with a model of the glacier’s dynamics to forecast its future. In a paper published online today in Science, they report that in as few as 2 centuries Thwaites Glacier’s outermost edge will recede past an underwater ridge now stalling its retreat. Their modeling suggests that the glacier will then cascade into rapid collapse. The second team, writing in Geophysical Research Letters (GRL), describes recent radar mapping of West Antarctica’s glaciers and confirms that the 600-meter-deep ridge is the final obstacle before the bedrock underlying the glacier dips into a deep basin.

Because inland basins connect Thwaites Glacier to other major glaciers in the region, both research teams say its collapse would flood West Antarctica with seawater, prompting a near-complete loss of ice in the area. “The next stable state for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet might be no ice sheet at all,” says the Science paper’s lead author, glaciologist Ian Joughin of the University of Washington (UW), Seattle.

“Very crudely, we are now committed to global sea level rise equivalent to a permanent Hurricane Sandy storm surge,” says glaciologist Richard Alley of Pennsylvania State University, University Park, referring to the storm that ravaged the Caribbean and the U.S. East Coast in 2012. Alley was not involved in either study.

Where Thwaites Glacier meets the Amundsen Sea, deep warm water burrows under the ice sheet’s base, forming an ice shelf from which icebergs break off. When melt and iceberg creation outpace fresh snowfall farther inland, the glacier shrinks. According to the radar mapping released today in GRL from the European Remote Sensing satellite, from 1992 to 2011 the Thwaites Glacier retreated 14 kilometers at its core. “Nowhere else in Antarctica is changing this fast,” says UW Seattle glaciologist Benjamin Smith, co-author of the Sciencepaper.

To forecast Thwaites Glacier’s fate, the team plugged satellite and aircraft radar maps of the glacier’s ice and underlying bedrock into a computer model. In simulations that assumed various melting trends, the model accurately reproduced recent ice-loss measurements and churned out a disturbing result: In all but the most conservative melt scenarios, a glacial collapse has already started and will accelerate rapidly once the glacier’s “grounding line”—the point at which the ice begins to float—retreats past the ridge.

At that point, the glacier’s face will become taller and, like a towering sand pile, more prone to collapse. The retreat will then accelerate to more than 5 kilometers per year, the team says. “On a glacial timescale, 200 to 500 years is the blink of an eye,” Joughin says.

And once Thwaites is gone, the rest of West Antarctica would be at risk.

Eric Rignot, a climate scientist at the University of California, Irvine, and the lead author of theGRL radar mapping study, is skeptical of Joughin’s timeline because the computer model used estimates of future melting rates instead of calculations based on physical processes such as changing sea temperatures. “These simulations ought to go to the next stage and include realistic ocean forcing,” he says. If they do, he says, they might predict an even more rapid retreat.

Antarctic history confirms the danger, Alley says: Core samples drilled into the inland basins that connect Thwaites Glacier with its neighbors have revealed algae preserved beneath the ice sheet, a hint that seawater has filled the basins within the past 750,000 years. That past flooding shows that modest climate warming can cause the entire ice sheet to collapse. “The possibility that we have already committed to 3 or more meters of sea level rise from West Antarctica will be disquieting to many people, even if the rise waits centuries before arriving.”

CONCLIMA 2013 – acesse vídeos de todas as palestras (Rede Clima)

CONCLIMA 2013 – acesse vídeos de todas as palestras

imagem video conclimaEstão disponíveis na Internet os vídeos de todas as apresentações realizadas durante a 1ª CONCLIMA – Conferência Nacional da Rede CLIMA, INCT para Mudanças Climáticas (INCT-MC) e Programa Fapesp de Pesquisas sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais (PFPMCG), realizada de 9 a 13 de setembro em São Paulo. A Rede CLIMA também produziu uma síntese de toda a conferência, com duração de 30 minutos.

O objetivo da CONCLIMA foi apresentar os resultados das pesquisas e o conhecimento gerado por esses importantes programas e projetos – um ambicioso empreendimento científico criado pelos governos federal e do Estado de São Paulo para prover informações de alta qualidade em estudos de clima, detecção de variabilidade climática e mudança climática, e seus impactos em setores chaves do Brasil.

Acesse os vídeos:

Vídeo da CONCLIMA – 1a Conferência Nacional de Mudanças Climáticas Globais:

Apresentações – arquivos PDF

Íntegra das apresentações – VÍDEOS

Mesa de Abertura

MODELO BRASILEIRO DO SISTEMA TERRESTRE

Paulo Nobre – INPE

Iracema Cavalcanti – INPE

Léo Siqueira – INPE

Marcos Heil Costa – UFV

Sérgio Correa – UERJ

PAINEL BRASILEIRO DE MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS

Tércio Ambrizzi – USP 

Eduardo Assad – Embrapa

Mercedes Bustamante – UnB

REDE CLIMA

Agricultura – Hilton Silveira Pinto – Embrapa

Recursos Hídricos – Alfredo Ribeiro Neto – UFPE

Energias Renováveis – Marcos Freitas – COPPE/UFRJ

Biodiversidade e Ecossistemas – Alexandre Aleixo – MPEG

Desastres Naturais – Regina Rodrigues – UFSC 

Zonas Costeiras – Carlos Garcia – FURG

Urbanização e Cidades – Roberto do Carmo – Unicamp

Economia – Eduardo Haddad – USP

Saúde – Sandra Hacon – Fiocruz

Desenvolvimento Regional – Saulo Rodrigues Filho – UnB

INCT PARA MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS

O INCT para Mudanças Climáticas – José Marengo – INPE

Detecção e atribuição e variabilidade natural do clima – Simone Ferraz – UFSM

Mudanças no uso da terra – Ana Paula Aguiar – INPE

Ciclos Biogeoquímicos Globais e Biodiversidade – Mercedes Bustamante – UnB

Oceanos – Regina Rodrigues – UFSC

REDD – Osvaldo Stella – IPAM

Cenários Climáticos Futuros e Redução de Incertezas – José Marengo – INPE

Gases de Efeito Estufa – Plínio Alvalá – INPE

Estudos de ciência, tecnologia e políticas públicas – Myanna Lahsen – INPE

Interações biosfera-atmosfera – Gilvan Sampaio – INPE

Amazônia – Gilberto Fisch – IAE/DCTA

PROGRAMA FAPESP MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS

Sistema de Alerta Precoce para Doenças Infecciosas Emergentes na Amazônia Ocidental – Manuel Cesario – Unifran

Clima e população em uma região de tensão entre alta taxa de urbanização e alta biodiversidade: Dimensões sociais e ecológicas das mudanças climáticas – Lucia da Costa Ferreira – Unicamp

Cenários de impactos das mudanças climáticas na produção de álcool visando a definição de políticas públicas – Jurandir Zullo – Unicamp

Fluxos hidrológicos e fluxos de carbono – casos da Bacia Amazônica e reflorestamento de microbacias – Humberto Rocha – USP

O papel dos rios no balanço regional do carbono – Maria Victoria Ballester – USP

Aerossóis atmosféricos, balanço de radiação, nuvens e gases traços associados com mudanças de uso de solo na Amazônia – Paulo Artaxo – USP

Socio-economic impacts of climate change in Brazil: quantitative inputs for the design of public policies – Joaquim José Martins Guilhoto e Rafael Feltran Barbieri- USP

Emissão de dióxido de carbono em solos de áreas de cana-de-açúcar sob diferentes estratégias de manejo – Newton La Scala Jr – Unesp

Impacto do Oceano Atlantico Sudoeste no Clima da America do Sul ao longo dos séculos 20 e 21 – Tércio Ambrizzi – USP

MESA REDONDA: C,T&I EM MUDANÇAS GLOBAIS COMO APOIO ÀS POLÍTICAS PÚBLICAS 

Apresentação Sergio Margulis – SAE – Presidência da República

Apresentação Gustavo Luedemann (MCTI)

Apresentação Carlos Klink (SMCQ/MMA)

Apresentação Couto Silva (MMA): Ambiente sobre o status da Elaboração do Plano Nacional de Adaptação. Funcionamento do GT Adaptação e suas redes temáticas. Proposta de Calendário. Proposta de Estrutura do Plano. 

Apresentação Alexandre Gross (FGV): Recortes temáticos do Plano Nacional de Adaptação: apresentação do Relatório sobre dimensões temporal, espacial e temática na adaptação às mudanças climáticas (Produto 4), processo e resultados do GT Adaptação, coleta de contribuições e discussão.

Mesa redonda: Mudanças climáticas, extremos e desastres naturais 

Apresentação Rafael Schadeck – CENAD 

Apresentação Marcos Airton de Sousa Freitas – ANA 

Mesa redonda: Relação ciência – planos setoriais; políticas públicas

Apresentação Carlos Nobre – SEPED/MCTI

Apresentação Luiz Pinguelli Rosa (COPPE UFRJ, FBMC)

Apresentação Eduardo Viola – UnB

Mesa redonda: Inventários e monitoramento das emissões e remoções de GEE 

Apresentação Gustavo Luedemann – MCTI 

CONFERÊNCIAS SOBRE A VISÃO DA PRODUÇÃO DO CONHECIMENTO: DETECÇÃO, MITIGAÇÃO, IMPACTOS, VULNERABILIDADE, ADAPTAÇÃO, INOVAÇÃO

Apresentação Patrícia Pinho – IGBP/INPE

Apresentação Paulo Artaxo – USP

John Oliver Does Science Communication Right (I Fucking Love Science)

May 15, 2014 | by Stephen Luntz

photo credit: Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO). Satirist John Oliver shows how scientific pseudo-debates should be covered

One of the most frustrating experiences scientists, science communicators and anyone who cares about science have is the sight of media outlets giving equal time to positions held by a tiny minority of researchers.

This sort of behavior turns up for all sorts of concocted “controversies”, satirized as “Opinions differ on the Shape of the Earth”. However, the most egregious examples occur in reporting climate change. Thousands of carefully researched peer reviewed papers are weighed in the balance and judged equal to a handful of shoddily writtennumerically flaky publications whose flaws take less than a day  to come to light.

That is, of course, if you ignore the places where the anti-science side pretty much gets free range.

So it is a delight to see John Oliver show how it should be done.
We have only one problem with Oliver’s work. He repeats the claim that 97% of climate scientists agree that humans are warming the planet. In fact the study he referred to has 97.1% of peer reviewed papers on climate change endorsing this position. However, these papers were usually produced by large research teams, while the opposing minority were often cooked up by a couple of kooks in their garage. When you look at the numbers of scientists involved the numbers are actually 98.4% to 1.2%, with the rest undecided. Which might not sound like a big difference, but would make Oliver’s tame “skeptic” look even more lonely.
HT Vox, with a nice summary of the evidence


Read more at http://www.iflscience.com/environment/john-oliver-does-science-communication-right#9A4CD6abdJTOOMHK.99

Crazy Climate Economics (New York Times)

MAY 11, 2014

Paul Krugman

Everywhere you look these days, you see Marxism on the rise. Well, O.K., maybe you don’t — but conservatives do. If you so much as mention income inequality, you’ll be denounced as the second coming of Joseph Stalin; Rick Santorum has declared that any use of the word “class” is “Marxism talk.” In the right’s eyes, sinister motives lurk everywhere — for example, George Will says the only reason progressives favor trains is their goal of “diminishing Americans’ individualism in order to make them more amenable to collectivism.”

So it goes without saying that Obamacare, based on ideas originally developed at the Heritage Foundation, is a Marxist scheme — why, requiring that people purchase insurance is practically the same as sending them to gulags.

And just wait until the Environmental Protection Agency announces rules intended to slow the pace of climate change.

Until now, the right’s climate craziness has mainly been focused on attacking the science. And it has been quite a spectacle: At this point almost all card-carrying conservatives endorse the view that climate change is a gigantic hoax, that thousands of research papers showing a warming planet — 97 percent of the literature — are the product of a vast international conspiracy. But as the Obama administration moves toward actually doing something based on that science, crazy climate economics will come into its own.

You can already get a taste of what’s coming in the dissenting opinions from a recent Supreme Court ruling on power-plant pollution. A majority of the justices agreed that the E.P.A. has the right to regulate smog from coal-fired power plants, which drifts across state lines. But Justice Scalia didn’t just dissent; he suggested that the E.P.A.’s proposed rule — which would tie the size of required smog reductions to cost — reflected the Marxist concept of “from each according to his ability.” Taking cost into consideration is Marxist? Who knew?

And you can just imagine what will happen when the E.P.A., buoyed by the smog ruling, moves on to regulation of greenhouse gas emissions.

What do I mean by crazy climate economics?

First, we’ll see any effort to limit pollution denounced as a tyrannical act. Pollution wasn’t always a deeply partisan issue: Economists in the George W. Bush administration wrote paeans to “market based” pollution controls, and in 2008 John McCain made proposals for cap-and-trade limits on greenhouse gases part of his presidential campaign. But when House Democrats actually passed a cap-and-trade bill in 2009, it was attacked as, you guessed it, Marxist. And these days Republicans come out in force to oppose even the most obviously needed regulations, like the plan to reduce the pollution that’s killing Chesapeake Bay.

Second, we’ll see claims that any effort to limit emissions will have what Senator Marco Rubio is already calling “a devastating impact on our economy.”

Why is this crazy? Normally, conservatives extol the magic of markets and the adaptability of the private sector, which is supposedly able to transcend with ease any constraints posed by, say, limited supplies of natural resources. But as soon as anyone proposes adding a few limits to reflect environmental issues — such as a cap on carbon emissions — those all-capable corporations supposedly lose any ability to cope with change.

Now, the rules the E.P.A. is likely to impose won’t give the private sector as much flexibility as it would have had in dealing with an economywide carbon cap or emissions tax. But Republicans have only themselves to blame: Their scorched-earth opposition to any kind of climate policy has left executive action by the White House as the only route forward.

Furthermore, it turns out that focusing climate policy on coal-fired power plants isn’t bad as a first step. Such plants aren’t the only source of greenhouse gas emissions, but they’re a large part of the problem — and the best estimates we have of the path forward suggest that reducing power-plant emissions will be a large part of any solution.

What about the argument that unilateral U.S. action won’t work, because China is the real problem? It’s true that we’re no longer No. 1 in greenhouse gases — but we’re still a strong No. 2. Furthermore, U.S. action on climate is a necessary first step toward a broader international agreement, which will surely include sanctions on countries that don’t participate.

So the coming firestorm over new power-plant regulations won’t be a genuine debate — just as there isn’t a genuine debate about climate science. Instead, the airwaves will be filled with conspiracy theories and wild claims about costs, all of which should be ignored. Climate policy may finally be getting somewhere; let’s not let crazy climate economics get in the way.