Arquivo anual: 2012

Leaders’ Emotional Cues May Predict Acts of Terror or Political Aggression (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 30, 2012) — Leaders often use rousing speeches to evoke powerful emotions, and those emotions may predict when a group will commit an act of violence or terrorism, according to new research published in the journal Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression.Analysis of speeches delivered by government, activist and terrorist leaders found that leaders’ expressions of anger, contempt and disgust spiked immediately before their group committed an act of violence.

“When leaders express a combination of anger, contempt and disgust in their speeches, it seems to be instrumental in inciting a group to act violently,” said David Matsumoto, professor of psychology at San Francisco State University.

As part of a five-year project funded by the U.S. Department of Defense’s Minerva Initiative, Matsumoto and colleagues studied the transcripts of speeches delivered by the leaders of ideologically motivated groups over the past 100 years. The analysis included such speeches as Osama bin Laden’s remarks leading up to the bombings of embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.

The researchers analyzed the pattern of emotions conveyed when leaders spoke about their rival group and examined speeches given at three points in time before a specific act of aggression. They compared the results with the content of speeches delivered by leaders whose groups engaged in nonviolent acts of resistance such as rallies and protests.

Among leaders of groups that committed aggressive acts, there was a significant increase in expressions of anger, contempt and disgust from 3 to 6 months prior to the group committing an act of violence. For nonviolent groups, expressions of anger, contempt and disgust decreased from 3 to 6 months prior to the group staging an act of peaceful resistance.

Matsumoto says the findings suggest a leader’s emotional tone may cause the rest of the group to share those emotions, which then motivates the group to take part in violent actions.

“For groups that committed acts of violence, there seemed to be this saturation of anger, contempt and disgust. That combination seems to be a recipe for hatred that leads to violence,” Matsumoto said.

Anger, contempt and disgust may be particularly important drivers of violent behavior because they are often expressed in response to moral violations, says Matsumoto, and when an individual feels these emotions about a person or group, they often feel that their opponent is unchangeable and inherently bad.

“Understanding the preceding factors that lead to terrorist attacks and violent events may help predict these incidents or prevent them occurring in the first place,” Matsumoto said. “Studying the emotions expressed by leaders is just one piece of the puzzle but it could be a helpful predictor of terrorist attacks.”

This study was one of the first seven projects funded by the U.S. Department of Defense Minerva Initiative. The Initiative was established in 2008 to fund social science research on areas of strategic importance to U.S. national security policy.

Journal Reference:

  1. David Matsumoto, Hyisung C. Hwang, Mark G. Frank.Emotions expressed in speeches by leaders of ideologically motivated groups predict aggression.Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression, 2012; : 1 DOI: 10.1080/19434472.2012.716449

Biodiversity Conservation Depends On Scale: Lessons from the Science–policy Dialogue (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 30, 2012) — The year 2010 marked the deadline for the political targets to significantly reduce and halt biodiversity loss. The failure to achieve the 2010 goal stimulated the setting up of new targets for 2020. In addition, preventing the degradation of ecosystems and their services has been incorporated in several global and the EU agendas for 2020. To successful meet these challenging targets requires a critical review of the existing and emerging biodiversity policies to improve their design and implementation, say a team scientists in a paper published in the open access journal Nature Conservation.

These and other questions of increasing the “scale-awareness” of policy makers have been actively discussed at a special SCALES symposium at the 3rd European Congress of Conservation Biology (ECCB) in Glasgow on 28th-31st of August 2012. The lead author Dr Riikka Paloniemi from the Environmental Policy Centre, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), in Helsinki, Finland, said: “The policies that regulate biodiversity protection and management operate at many administrative levels, employ a range of instruments at different scales, and involve a variety of governmental and non-governmental actors. These actors often have different insights as to what constitutes a scale-challenge and how to deal with it, inevitably leading to contrasting opinions.”

“The question of scale has never been so acute before. Neglecting the spatial and temporal scale at which ecosystems functions when designing conservation measures may lead to long-standing negative consequences, and the failure of the 2010 target is one of the best examples of that” added Dr Klaus Henle from the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research — UFZ in Leipzig, Germany and coordinator of SCALES.

The main conclusion of the scientists is that scale-related problems, and their potential solutions, are all about improving our understanding of complexity of the processes. Dealing with a number of different scales and scale-mismatches in biodiversity conservation is challenging; it requires an analytical and political framework that is able to assess the adverse impacts of global change, and to implement the relevant policies at the relevant scale.

Journal Reference:

  1. Riikka Paloniemi, Evangelia Apostolopoulou, Eeva Primmer, Malgorzata Grodzinska-Jurcak, Klaus Henle, Irene Ring, Marianne Kettunen, Joseph Tzanopoulos, Simon Potts, Sybille van den Hove, Pascal Marty, Andrew McConville, Jukka Simila. Biodiversity conservation across scales: lessons from a science–policy dialogueNature Conservation, 2012; 2 (0): 7 DOI:10.3897/natureconservation.2.3144

Shading Earth: Delivering Solar Geoengineering Materials to Combat Global Warming May Be Feasible and Affordable (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 29, 2012) — A cost analysis of the technologies needed to transport materials into the stratosphere to reduce the amount of sunlight hitting Earth and therefore reduce the effects of global climate change has shown that they are both feasible and affordable.

A cost analysis of the technologies needed to transport materials into the stratosphere to reduce the amount of sunlight hitting Earth and therefore reduce the effects of global climate change has shown that they are both feasible and affordable. (Credit: © mozZz / Fotolia)

Published August 31, 2012, in IOP Publishing’s journal Environmental Research Letters, the study has shown that the basic technology currently exists and could be assembled and implemented in a number of different forms for less than USD $5 billion a year.

Put into context, the cost of reducing carbon dioxide emissions is currently estimated to be between 0.2 and 2.5 per cent of GDP in the year 2030, which is equivalent to roughly USD $200 to $2000 billion.

Solar radiation management (SRM) looks to induce the effects similar to those observed after volcanic eruptions; however, the authors state that it is not a preferred strategy and that such a claim could only be made after the thorough investigation of the implications, risks and costs associated with these issues.

The authors caution that reducing incident sunlight does nothing at all to reduce greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, nor the resulting increase in the acid content of the oceans. They note that other research has shown that the effects of solar radiation management are not uniform, and would cause different temperature and precipitation changes in different countries.

Co-author of the study, Professor Jay Apt, said: “As economists are beginning to explore the role of several types of geoengineering, it is important that a cost analysis of SRM is carried out. The basic feasibility of SRM with current technology is still being disputed and some political scientists and policy makers are concerned about unilateral action.”

In the study, the researchers, from Aurora Flight Sciences, Harvard University and Carnegie Mellon University, performed an engineering cost analysis on six systems capable of delivering 1-5 million metric tonnes of material to altitudes of 18-30 km: existing aircraft, a new airplane designed to perform at altitudes up to 30 km, a new hybrid airship, rockets, guns and suspended pipes carrying gas or slurry to inject the particles into the atmosphere.

Based on existing research into solar radiation management, the researchers performed their cost analyses for systems that could deliver around one million tonnes of aerosols each year at an altitude between 18 and 25 km and between a latitude range of 30°N and 30°S.

The study concluded that using aircraft is easily within the current capabilities of aerospace engineering, manufacturing and operations. The development of new, specialized aircraft appeared to be the cheapest option, with costs of around $1 to $2 billion a year; existing aircraft would be more expensive as they are not optimized for high altitudes and would need considerable and expensive modifications to do so.

Guns and rockets appeared to be capable of delivering materials at high altitudes but the costs associated with these are much higher than those of airplanes and airships due to their lack of reusability.

Although completely theoretical at this point in time, a large gas pipe, rising to 20 km in the sky and suspended by helium-filled floating platforms, would offer the lowest recurring cost-per-kilogram of particles delivered but the costs of research into the materials required, the development of the pipe and the testing to ensure safety, would be high; the whole system carries a large uncertainty.

Professor Apt continued: “We hope our study will help other scientists looking at more novel methods for dispersing particles and help them to explore methods with increased efficiency and reduced environmental risk.”

The researchers make it clear that they have not sought to address the science of aerosols in the stratosphere, nor issues of risk, effectiveness or governance that will add to the costs of solar radiation management geoengineering.

Journal Reference:

  1. Justin McClellan, David W Keith, Jay Apt. Cost analysis of stratospheric albedo modification delivery systems.Environmental Research Letters, 2012; 7 (3): 034019 DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034019

Conflitos pela água surgem no horizonte (IPS)

Inter Press Service – Reportagens

31/8/2012 – 10h21

por Thalif Deen, da IPS

conflitos Conflitos pela água surgem no horizonte

Participantes das atividades da Semana Mundial da Água, em Estocolmo. Foto: Peter Tvärberg, SIWI/CC by 2.0

Estocolmo, Suécia, 31/8/2012 – Diante da provável escassez de água nas próximas décadas, a comunidade de inteligência dos Estados Unidos já previu um cenário futuro cinza: conflitos étnicos, tensões regionais, instabilidade política e inclusive matanças. Nos próximos dez anos, “muitos países importantes para os Estados Unidos seguramente experimentarão problemas relacionados à água, como escassez, má qualidade ou inundações, que alimentarão riscos de instabilidade e de fracassos no funcionamento dos Estados, aumentando as tensões regionais”, alerta a Avaliação Nacional de Inteligência, publicada em março.

Em julho, o presidente do Conselho Nacional de Inteligência dos Estados Unidos, Chris Kojm, previu que até 2030 cerca de metade da população mundial (atualmente mais de sete bilhões de pessoas) viverá em áreas com severos problemas de água, elevando a probabilidade de assassinatos em massa. No entanto, o jornal The New York Timescitou Timothy Snyder, professor de história na Universidade de Yale, afirmando em um simpósio que “o pânico ecológico levará a matanças nas próximas décadas”.

Por sua vez, o diretor do Centro da Água da Universidade de Columbia, Upmanu Lall, foi mais cauteloso. “Não estou certo de que seja possível prever assassinatos em massa como resultado” da falta de água, disse à IPS. Lall afirmou que não prevê guerras ou conflitos internacionais por recursos hídricos. “Contudo, creio que a competição dentro de alguns dos maiores países, como a Índia, poderia levar a uma luta interna e ao aumento do terrorismo e dos conflitos sectários”, opinou. Porém, “evitar este futuro é possível se trabalharmos nele hoje”, ressaltou.

Este é um dos temas analisados na conferência internacional realizada em Estocolmo por ocasião da Semana Mundial da Água, que termina hoje. Lall considera realista a projeção de que, se tudo continuar igual, quase metade da população mundial viverá em “forte tensão pela água” até 2030. “É um desafio urgente, especialmente se considerarmos a possibilidade de grandes secas, por exemplo, as deste ano nos Estados Unidos e na Índia”, afirmou.

Os impactos serão muito graves e duradouros, alertou Lall. Porém, “se pudermos traduzir esta preocupação em ação, especialmente sobre com melhorar o uso da água na agricultura, de longe o setor consumidor mais ineficiente, então poderemos evitar este desastre”, aponto o especialista. No momento, há conversações nessa direção, mas não existem mandatos nem metas internacionais. Lall acrescentou que “é importante que isto seja assumido nos mais altos níveis para evitar uma considerável angústia na população e nas economias do mundo”.

Gary White, chefe-executivo e cofundador da organização Water.Org, acredita que o acesso aos recursos hídricos poderia ser motivo de conflitos nos próximos anos. “Particularmente em áreas pressionadas pela falta de água e nas quais há grandes concentrações de população pobre”, disse à IPS. “Entretanto, também acredito que a maioria dos governos que virão atuarão e adotarão políticas, regulações e acordos transitórios corretos e necessários para impedir grandes conflitos”, ressaltou.

White alertou que podem ocorrer casos de escassez aguda que teriam como consequência grandes perdas humanas e econômicas, mas acrescentou acreditar que “um conflito declarado seria algo excepcional”. Em geral, as crises regionais da água são geradas de forma relativamente lenta em comparação com a maioria dos desastres naturais, e, portanto, pode-se aprender lições para evitar impactos semelhantes em outros lugares, acrescentou.

“No entanto, essas crises e esses conflitos terão um impacto muito maior nos pobres, porque as populações mais abastadas sempre têm opções de utilizar tecnologia para tratar os recursos hídricos locais (como a dessalinização) ou para transportar água por aquedutos ao longo de grandes distâncias”, pontuou White. “Sempre afirmei que o direito básico deve ser de todos poderem pagar para obter água potável”, disse à IPS, referindo-se à decisão da Assembleia Geral da Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU) de, em 2010, declarar a água e o saneamento um direito humano.

Hoje os pobres pagam mais pela água do que os ricos, seja em dinheiro ou em trabalho investido para adquiri-la. Tampouco os primeiros têm assegurada uma qualidade decente do recurso, lamentou White. “Aqui, quando digo pobres me refiro aos desfavorecidos economicamente em uma sociedade particular, e também às nações que não são tão ricas”, explicou. A menos que sejam estendidos serviços a essas pessoas, elas sofrerão, advertiu. E, para fazer isso, é preciso investimentos para desenvolvê-los e mantê-los.

“De fato, todos deveriam pagar um preço pela água, mas segundo seus meios, assim fortaleceriam seu direito de acesso a uma oferta confiável e de qualidade”, observou Lall, acrescentando que essa deveria ser a grande meta, e não apenas a declaração da água como um direito humano. Envolverde/IPS

Profeta do nada óbvio (FSP)

RUY CASTRO

São Paulo, segunda-feira, 09 de julho de 2012

RIO DE JANEIRO – Nelson Rodrigues era diabólico. Com toda a miopia e aversão a óculos, seu poder de enxergar ao longe era desconcertante. Como em 1970, quando, durante meses, sustentou sozinho a certeza de que a seleção brasileira “ganharia andando” a Copa do México (seus colegas, os “profetas da derrota”, apostavam na correria das seleções europeias). Bem, o Brasil ganhou andando.

Outra premonição foi a de fins de maio de 1962, quando garantiu que, se Pelé se machucasse na Copa do Chile, o garoto Amarildo o substituiria como um “possesso”. Um mês depois, Pelé se contundiu na segunda partida e a Copa acabou para ele. Amarildo entrou nos jogos restantes, fez os gols que Pelé faria e foi o “Possesso” que Nelson anteviu.

Outra de suas “verdades eternas” -proclamada na “Resenha Facit”, que Nelson estrelava na TV Rio com João Saldanha, Armando Nogueira e demais- foi a de que o videoteipe era “burro”. Na hora, parecia absurdo -como contestar algo que se podia ver e rever? Trinta anos depois, uma infração de Júnior Baiano na área do Brasil passou em branco pelos videoteipes e só apareceu, dias depois, por um ângulo inusitado de câmera. O juiz, que marcara o pênalti, estava certo. O videoteipe era mesmo burro.

Em fins dos anos 60, Nelson produziu outra frase impossível de ser verificada e que parecia provocação: “Ainda seremos o maior país ex-católico do mundo”. Previa um declínio da fé católica no Brasil porque setores da igreja estavam trocando a promessa da vida eterna pela luta armada contra a ditadura.

Nas décadas seguintes, sai papa, entra papa, essa linha política seria abandonada. Mas o encanto se quebrara. Em 1970, os católicos eram 90% dos brasileiros. Hoje, segundo o IBGE, são 64%. E, em 2030, serão menos de 50%. Nelson errou a causa, mas sua sentença continuou de pé.

Affluent People Less Likely to Reach out to Others in Times of Trouble? (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 30, 2012) — Crises are said to bring people closer together. But a new study from UC Berkeley suggests that while the have-nots reach out to one another in times of trouble, the wealthy are more apt to find comfort in material possessions.

While chaos drives some to seek comfort in friends and family, others gravitate toward money and material possessions, a new study finds. (Credit: iStockphoto/Rob Friedman)

“In times of uncertainty, we see a dramatic polarization, with the rich more focused on holding onto and attaining wealth and the poor spending more time with friends and loved ones,” said Paul Piff, a post-doctoral scholar in psychology at UC Berkeley and lead author of the paper published online this month in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.

These new findings add to a growing body of scholarship at UC Berkeley on socio-economic class — defined by both household income and education — and social behavior.

Results from five separate experiments shed new light on how humans from varying socio-economic backgrounds may respond to both natural and human-made disasters, including economic recessions, political instability, earthquakes and hurricanes. They also help explain why, in times of turmoil, people can become more polarized in their responses to uncertainty and chaos.

For example, when asked if they would move across the country for a higher-paying job, study participants from the lower class responded that they would decline in favor of staying close to friends, family and colleagues. By contrast, upper class participants opted to take the job and cut ties with their community.

Although the study does not provide a definitive reason for why the upper class, when stressed, focuses more on worldly goods than relationships, it posits that “material wealth may be a particularly salient, accessible and preferred individual coping mechanism … when they are threatened by perceptions of chaos within the social environment.”

Each experiment was done with a different group of ethnically and socio-economically diverse participants, all of whom reported their social status (household income and education) as well as their level of community mindedness and/or preoccupation with money.

In a lab setting, researchers induced various psychological states in their subjects — such as uncertainty, helplessness or anxiety — so they could accurately assess how social class shapes the likelihood of people turning to others or to wealth in the face of perceived chaos.

Chaos is defined in the study as “the feeling that the world is unknown, unpredictable, seemingly random … a general sense that the world and one’s life have turned uncertain and topsy-turvy.” This uncertainty typically triggers either a fight-or-flight or a “tend-and-befriend” response, which researchers used to assess participants reactions to induced stress.

In the first experiment, a nationwide sample of 76 men and women ranging in age from 18 to 66 were tasked with selecting, online, a visual graph that best reflected the trajectory of economic ups and downs they believed they were likely to face in their lifetimes. The results showed that the upper class and, to a small degree, Caucasian participants, were less likely than the lower class and minorities to anticipate financial instability. Lower-class participants who expected more turmoil in their lives were more likely to turn to community to cope with perceived chaos, the study found.

In the second experiment, 72 college students were asked to write about positive and negative factors that could impact their educational experience. Potential threats that they cited included canceled classes, tuition hikes and academic failures. Again, worries about chaos and helplessness spurred lower class college students — but not the upper class ones — to say they would turn to their community for support. In the third experiment, 77 students were put through computerized tasks in which they rearranged into sentences words that either alluded to chaos or something negative. This exercise was designed to prime certain participants to see their environment as unpredictable and scary. When these participants were offered five minutes to take part in a community building task where they could develop friendships with a group of their peers, only lower class participants jumped at the opportunity.

The fourth experiment had 135 students unscramble similar words into sentences and then report on how much they agreed with such statements as “Money is the only thing I can really count on” and “Time spent not making money is time wasted.” When made to feel as if the world was chaotic, upper class participants consistently agreed more strongly with these statements.

In the fifth experiment, 115 students were given a hypothetical scenario in which an employer offered them a new job for a higher salary, with the caveat that they would need to move, and potentially lose touch with their current network of family, friends and colleagues. Again, when primed with feelings that the world was uncertain and chaotic, upper class participants were more amenable to cutting ties and taking the job, whereas lower class participants opted to stay close to their support networks.

“Given the very different forms of coping that we observe among the upper and lower classes, our research suggests that in times of economic uncertainty and social instability, disparities between the haves and the have-nots could grow ever wider,” Piff said.

Other coauthors of the study are UC Berkeley psychologist Dacher Keltner; Daniel Stancato, a psychologist in Seattle, Wash.; Andres Martinez of George Mason University and Michael Kraus of the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. The research was funded in part by the National Science Foundation.

Journal Reference:

  1. Paul K. Piff, Daniel M. Stancato, Andres G. Martinez, Michael W. Kraus, Dacher Keltner. Class, Chaos, and the Construction of Community.Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2012; DOI: 10.1037/a0029673

Earthquake Hazards Map Study Finds Deadly Flaws (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 31, 2012) — Three of the largest and deadliest earthquakes in recent history occurred where earthquake hazard maps didn’t predict massive quakes. A University of Missouri scientist and his colleagues recently studied the reasons for the maps’ failure to forecast these quakes. They also explored ways to improve the maps. Developing better hazard maps and alerting people to their limitations could potentially save lives and money in areas such as the New Madrid, Missouri fault zone.

“Forecasting earthquakes involves many uncertainties, so we should inform the public of these uncertainties,” said Mian Liu, of MU’s department of geological sciences. “The public is accustomed to the uncertainties of weather forecasting, but foreseeing where and when earthquakes may strike is far more difficult. Too much reliance on earthquake hazard maps can have serious consequences. Two suggestions may improve this situation. First, we recommend a better communication of the uncertainties, which would allow citizens to make more informed decisions about how to best use their resources. Second, seismic hazard maps must be empirically tested to find out how reliable they are and thus improve them.”

Liu and his colleagues suggest testing maps against what is called a null hypothesis, the possibility that the likelihood of an earthquake in a given area — like Japan — is uniform. Testing would show which mapping approaches were better at forecasting earthquakes and subsequently improve the maps.

Liu and his colleagues at Northwestern University and the University of Tokyo detailed how hazard maps had failed in three major quakes that struck within a decade of each other. The researchers interpreted the shortcomings of hazard maps as the result of bad assumptions, bad data, bad physics and bad luck.

Wenchuan, China — In 2008, a quake struck China’s Sichuan Province and cost more than 69,000 lives. Locals blamed the government and contractors for not making buildings in the area earthquake-proof, according to Liu, who says that hazard maps bear some of the blame as well since the maps, based on bad assumptions, had designated the zone as an area of relatively low earthquake hazard.

Léogâne, Haiti — The 2010 earthquake that devastated Port-au-Prince and killed an estimated 316,000 people occurred along a fault that had not caused a major quake in hundreds of years. Using only the short history of earthquakes since seismometers were invented approximately one hundred years ago yielded hazard maps that were didn’t indicate the danger there.

Tōhoku, Japan — Scientists previously thought the faults off the northeast coast of Japan weren’t capable of causing massive quakes and thus giant tsunamis like the one that destroyed the Fukushima nuclear reactor. This bad understanding of particular faults’ capabilities led to a lack of adequate preparation. The area had been prepared for smaller quakes and the resulting tsunamis, but the Tōhoku quake overwhelmed the defenses.

“If we limit our attention to the earthquake records in the past, we will be unprepared for the future,” Liu said. “Hazard maps tend to underestimate the likelihood of quakes in areas where they haven’t occurred previously. In most places, including the central and eastern U.S., seismologists don’t have a long enough record of earthquake history to make predictions based on historical patterns. Although bad luck can mean that quakes occur in places with a genuinely low probability, what we see are too many ‘black swans,’ or too many exceptions to the presumed patterns.”

“We’re playing a complicated game against nature,” said the study’s first author, Seth Stein of Northwestern University. “It’s a very high stakes game. We don’t really understand all the rules very well. As a result, our ability to assess earthquake hazards often isn’t very good, and the policies that we make to mitigate earthquake hazards sometimes aren’t well thought out. For example, the billions of dollars the Japanese spent on tsunami defenses were largely wasted.

“We need to very carefully try to formulate the best strategies we can, given the limits of our knowledge,” Stein said. “Understanding the uncertainties in earthquake hazard maps, testing them, and improving them is important if we want to do better than we’ve done so far.”

The study, “Why earthquake hazard maps often fail and what to do about it,” was published by the journal Tectonophysics. First author of the study was Seth Stein of Northwestern University. Robert Geller of the University of Tokyo was co-author. Mian Liu is William H. Byler Distinguished Chair in Geological Sciences in the College of Arts and Science at the University of Missouri.

Legislated to Health? If People Don’t Take Their Health Into Their Own Hands, Governments May Use Policies to Do It for Them (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 31, 2012) — Obesity rates in North America are a growing concern for legislators. Expanded waistlines mean rising health-care costs for maladies such as diabetes, heart disease and some cancers. One University of Alberta researcher says that if people do not take measures to get healthy, they may find that governments will throw their weight into administrative measures designed to help us trim the fat.

Nola Ries of the Faculty of Law’s Health Law and Science Policy Group has recently published several articles exploring potential policy measures that could be used to promote healthier behaviour. From the possibility of zoning restrictions on new fast-food outlet locations, mandatory menu labels, placing levies on items such as chips and pop or offering cash incentives for leading a more healthy and active lifestyle, she says governments at all levels are looking to adopt measures that will help combat both rising health-care costs and declining fitness levels. But she cautions that finding a solution to such a widespread, complex problem will require a multi-layered approach.

“Since eating and physical activity behaviour are complex and influenced by many factors, a single policy measure on its own is not going to be the magic bullet,” said Ries. “Measures at multiple levels — directed at the food and beverage industry, at individuals, at those who educate and those who restrict — must work together to be effective.”

Junk-food tax: A lighter wallet equals a lighter you?

Ries notes that several countries have already adopted tax measures against snack foods and beverages, similar to “sin taxes” placed on alcohol and tobacco. Although Canada has imposed its GST on various sugary and starchy snacks (no tax is charged on basic groceries such as meats, vegetables and fruits), Ries points to other countries such as France and Romania, where the tax rate is much higher. She says taxing products such as sugar-sweetened beverages would likely not only reduce consumption (and curb some weight gain) if the tax is high enough, but also provide a revenue stream to combat the problem on other levels.

“Price increases through taxation do help discourage consumption of ‘sin’ products, especially for younger and lower-income consumers,” said Ries. “Such taxes would provide a source of government revenue that could be directed to other programs to promote healthier lifestyles.”

Warning: This menu label may make you eat healthier

Ries notes that prevailing thought says putting nutrition-value information where consumers can see it will enable them to make better food choices. She says many locales in the United States have already implemented mandatory menu labelling. Even though some studies say menu labels do not have a significant impact on consumer behaviour, nutrition details might help some people make more informed eating choices.

“Providing information is less coercive than taxation and outright bans, so governments should provide information along with any other more restrictive measure,” said Ries. “If a more coercive policy is being implemented, it’s important for citizens to understand the rationale for it.”

Coaxing our way to good health?

Ries notes that some programs designed to create more active citizens, such as the child fitness tax credit, do not seem to have the desired effect. Yet, she says that offering incentives for living healthier and exercising more may have a greater impact on getting people active. She points to similar programs used for weight loss and smoking cessation, which had a positive effect on behaviour change, at least in the short term. More work needs to be done to establish an enticement plan with longer-term effects, one that may incorporate points accumulated for healthy types of behaviour that could be redeemed for health- and fitness-related products and services. She says investing money into more direct incentive programs may be more effective than messages that simply give general advice about healthy lifestyles.

“Instead of spending more money on educational initiatives to tell people what they already know — like eat your greens and get some exercise — I suggest it’s better to focus on targeted programs that help people make and sustain behaviour change,” said Ries. “Financial incentive programs are one option; the question there is how best to target such programs and to design them to support long-term healthy behaviour.”

Fear and Driving Opportunity Motivated Changes in Driving Behavior After 9/11 (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 31, 2012) — A catastrophic event — such as a terrorist attack, a natural disaster, or market collapse — often strikes twice. There is the damage caused by the event itself, as lives are lost or left in ruin. But there is also the second act, catalyzed by our response to the catastrophic event. This second act has the potential to cause just as much damage as the first.

In the year following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, there were approximately 1,600 more traffic fatalities in the United States than expected. This figure suggests the possibility that fear may have been a strong motivator for many people, leading them to choose driving over flying. This change in behavior, motivated by fear, may have ultimately led to additional deaths through traffic fatalities.

But fear does not tell the whole story. As Wolfgang Gaissmaier and Gerd Gigerenzer of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin, Germany, observe, the changes in driving behavior observed after 9/11 varied widely across different regions of the United States and did not just occur in those states closest to the attacks where fear was presumably strongest.

Gaissmaier and Gigerenzer hypothesized that another factor might have played a central role: driving opportunity. While fear provides a motivational explanation, in order for people to substitute driving for flying there had to be an environmental structure that allowed fear to manifest in a behavior change.

The researchers explore this hypothesis in a new research article to be published in Psychological Science, a journal of the Association for Psychological Science.

They collected data on the number of miles driven and the number of traffic fatalities per month from each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. They also gathered data on fear and driving opportunity. They used proximity to New York City to get an approximate measure of post-9/11 fear, as previous research had shown that proximity was linked with substantial stress reactions after the attacks. To measure driving opportunity, they assessed the length of nationally significant highways in each state in the National Highway System, divided by the number of state inhabitants and they also looked at the number of car registrations per inhabitant.

The results of the analyses show that people did in fact drive more following 9/11: Across all states, the average monthly increase in miles driven per inhabitant was 27.2 miles in the three months following the attacks. This increase was significantly greater than that observed in the same three-month period in the five years leading up to 2001.

Interestingly, people who were closer to New York City showed only a slight increase in driving. Increase in miles driven was strongly associated, however, with greater driving opportunity. Most importantly, increased driving was associated with an increase in traffic fatalities. These findings suggest that fear can lead people to engage in potentially dangerous behaviors, such as increased driving, but that understanding fear is not enough.

“To be able to foresee where the secondary effects of catastrophic events could have fatal consequences, we need to look at the environmental structures that allow fear to actually manifest in dangerous behaviors.”

According to Gaissmaier, understanding citizens’ behavior as a function of both the mind and the environment ultimately allows for two routes toward behavior change: altering people’s minds (through education or awareness campaigns) or altering people’s environments.

Árvores ‘semeiam’ chuva na região da Amazônia, diz estudo da USP (G1)

Sem as plantas, clima da área seria drasticamente alterado, afirma cientista. Estudo publicado na ‘Science’ foi feito junto com a Universidade Harvard.

Rafael SampaioDo Globo Natureza, em São Paulo

Vista aérea da floresta amazônica  (Foto: AFP)

Vista aérea da vegetação na Amazônia; árvores ‘criam’ condições para chuva, segundo pesquisa  (Foto: AFP)

Cientistas da Universidade de São Paulo (USP) descobriram que a formação das chuvas na região da Amazônia está muito mais ligada à floresta do que o imaginado anteriormente. Um estudo inédito, publicado na revista “Science”, aponta que as plantas emitem sais de potássio que “semeiam” as nuvens, formando as partículas aerossóis responsáveis por causar chuva.

Sem a floresta, o clima e as chuvas na região seriam alterados de forma drástica, disse para o G1 o professor de física da USP Paulo Artaxo, coordenador brasileiro do estudo. A pesquisa foi realizada em conjunto com cientistas das tradicionais universidades de Berkeley e Harvard (nos Estados Unidos) e com o Instituto Max Planck, na Alemanha.

Antes do estudo, acreditava-se que os aerossóis responsáveis pelas chuvas eram gerados por reações químicas no ar, afirma Artaxo. A pesquisa revelou que este conceito está errado.

“Uma quantidade significativa das gotículas [de chuva] contém potássio, elemento de emissão direta das plantas, que não é formado na atmosfera”, diz o cientista. A descoberta significa, segundo o pesquisador, que os processos biológicos das árvores controlam as chuvas na Amazônia “muito mais do que se pensava”.

Esta “ligação íntima” entre a biodiversidade da floresta e o clima não existe em áreas de vegetação rasteira, diz Artaxo. No cerrado e na caatinga, por exemplo, o elo entre clima e as plantas é bem menor. Isso acontece porque os sais de potássio são emitidos pelas folhas das árvores. “A floresta tem um índice de área folhada muito maior do que as gramíneas”, afirma.

Árvore destruída em área de queimada ilegal na floresta amazônica (Foto: Antonio Scorza/AFP)Árvore destruída em área de queimada ilegal na floresta amazônica (Foto: Antonio Scorza/AFP)

Planeta
Para o professor, a descoberta adiciona um elemento à forma como a vida controla a formação da atmosfera e do clima no planeta. “Não é só através da fotossíntese e da respiração, não é só pela emissão dos gases de efeito estufa, mas também as partículas aerossóis são controladas por processos biológicos”, diz ele.

O processo de criação das chuvas pelas plantas existe em todas as áreas de mata tropical, segundo o pesquisador. “Esse mecanismo não é peculiar nem único da floresta amazônica. Ele vale para qualquer vegetação arbórea, mas não gramínea.”

A descoberta só foi possível graças ao uso de grandes equipamentos científicos conhecidos como aceleradores de partículas, similares ao Grande Colisor de Hádrons (LHC, na sigla em inglês). Um acelerador pode fazer com que partículas atinjam velocidade próxima à da luz, como é o caso do LHC, um túnel circular de 27 km localizado entre a Suíça e a França.

Os aparelhos usados no estudo coordenado por Artaxo ficam nos EUA e na Alemanha, e são batizados de Advanced Light Source (ALS, na sigla em inglês) e Bessy 2, respectivamente.

O equipamento, segundo o cientista, acelera elétrons em uma energia muito alta. Eles batem em um alvo e produzem raio-X, que pode ser colidido com as partículas aerossóis e permitir que elas sejam analisadas. Com essa “radiografia” foi possível descobrir o potássio contido nas gotículas. Sem esta tecnologia, avalia Artaxo, a descoberta não aconteceria.

New DNA Analysis Shows Ancient Humans Interbred with Denisovans (Scientific American)

A new high-coverage DNA sequencing method reconstructs the full genome of Denisovans–relatives to both Neandertals and humans–from genetic fragments in a single finger bone

By Katherine Harmon  | Thursday, August 30, 2012

denisovan genome finger boneFRAGMENT OF A FINGER: This replica of the Denisovan finger bone shows just how small of a sample the researchers had to extract DNA from.Image: Image courtesy of Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology

Tens of thousands of years ago modern humans crossed paths with the group of hominins known as the Neandertals. Researchers now think they also met another, less-known group called the Denisovans. The only trace that we have found, however, is a single finger bone and two teeth, but those fragments have been enough to cradle wisps of Denisovan DNA across thousands of years inside a Siberian cave. Now a team of scientists has been able to reconstruct their entire genome from these meager fragments. The analysis adds new twists to prevailing notions about archaic human history.

“Denisova is a big surprise,” says John Hawks, a biological anthropologist at the University of Wisconsin–Madison who was not involved in the new research. On its own, a simple finger bone in a cave would have been assumed to belong to a human, Neandertal or other hominin. But when researchers first sequenced a small section of DNA in 2010—a section that covered about 1.9 percent of the genome—they were able to tell that the specimen was neither. “It was the first time a new group of distinct humans was discovered” via genetic analysis rather than by anatomical description, said Svante Pääbo, a researcher at the Max Planck Institute (M.P.I.) for Evolutionary Anthropology in Germany, in a conference call with reporters.

Now Pääbo and his colleagues have devised a new method of genetic analysis that allowed them to reconstruct the entire Denisovan genome with nearly all of the genome sequenced approximately 30 times over akin to what we can do for modern humans. Within this genome, researchers have found clues into not only this group of mysterious hominins, but also our own evolutionary past. Denisovans appear to have been more closely related to Neandertals than to humans, but the evidence also suggests that Denisovans and humans interbred. The new analysis also suggests new ways that early humans may have spread across the globe. The findings were published online August 30 in Science.

Who were the Denisovans?
Unfortunately, the Denisovan genome doesn’t provide many more clues about what this hominin looked like than a pinky bone does. The researchers will only conclude that Denisovans likely had dark skin. They also note that there are alleles “consistent” with those known to call for brown hair and brown eyes. Other than that, they cannot say.

Yet the new genetic analysis does support the hypothesis that Neandertals and Denisovans were more closely related to one another than either was to modern humans. The analysis suggests that the modern human line diverged from what would become the Denisovan line as long as 700,000 years ago—but possibly as recently as 170,000 years ago.

Denisovans also interbred with ancient modern humans, according to Pääbo and his team. Even though the sole fossil specimen was found in the mountains of Siberia, contemporary humans from Melanesia (a region in the South Pacific) seem to be the most likely to harbor Denisovan DNA. The researchers estimate that some 6 percent of contemporary Papuans’ genomes come from Denisovans. Australian aborigines and those from Southeast Asian islands also have traces of Denisovan DNA. This suggests that the two groups might have crossed paths in central Asia and then the modern humans continued on to colonize the islands of Oceania.

Yet contemporary residents of mainland Asia do not seem to posses Denisovian traces in their DNA, a “very curious” fact, Hawks says. “We’re looking at a very interesting population scenario”—one that does not jibe entirely with what we thought we knew about how waves modern human populations migrated into and through Asia and out to Oceania’s islands. This new genetic evidence might indicate that perhaps an early wave of humans moved through Asia, mixed with Denisovans and then relocated to the islands—to be replaced in Asia by later waves of human migrants from Africa. “It’s not totally obvious that that works really well with what we know about the diversity of Asians and Australians,” Hawks says. But further genetic analysis and study should help to clarify these early migrations.

Just as with modern Homo sapiens, the genome of a single individual cannot tell us exactly what genes and traits are specific to all Denisovans. Yet, just one genome can reveal the genetic diversity of an entire population. Each of our genomes contains information about generations far beyond those of our parents and grandparents, said David Reich, a researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology–Harvard University Broad Institute and a co-author on the paper. Scientists can compare and contrast the set of genes on each chromosome—passed down from each parent—and extrapolate this process back through the generations. “You contain a multitude of ancestors within you,” Reich said, borrowing from Walt Whitman.

The new research reveals that the Denisovans had low genetic diversity—just 26 to 33 percent of the genetic diversity of contemporary European or Asian populations. And for the Denisovans, the population on the whole seems to have been very small for hundreds of thousands of years, with relatively little genetic diversity throughout their history.

Curiously, the researchers noted in their paper, the Denisovan population shows “a drastic decline in size at the time when the modern human population began to expand.”

Why were modern humans so successful whereas Denisovans (and Neandertals) went extinct? Pääbo and his co-authors could not resist looking into the genetic factors that might be at work. Some of the key differences, they note, center around brain development and synaptic connectivity. “It makes sense that what pops up is connectivity in the brain,” Pääbo noted. Neandertals had a similar brain size–to-body ratio as we do, so rather than cranial capacity, it might have been underlying neurological differences that could explain why we flourished while they died out, he said.

Hawks counters that it might be a little early to begin drawing conclusions about human brain evolution from genetic comparisons with archaic relatives. Decoding the genetic map of the brain and cognition from a genome is still a long way off, he notes—unraveling skin color is still difficult enough given our current technologies and knowledge.

New sequencing for old DNA
The Denisovan results rely on a new method of genetic analysis developed by paper co-author Matthias Meyer, also of M.P.I. The procedure allows the researchers to sequence the full genome by using single strands of genetic material rather than the typical double strands required. The technique, which they are calling a single-stranded library preparation, involves stripping the genetic material down to individual strands to copy and avoids a purification step, which can lose precious genetic material.

The finger bone—just one disklike phalanx—is so small that it does not contain enough usable carbon for dating, the researchers note. But by counting the number of genetic mutations in a genome and comparing them with other living relatives, such as modern humans and chimpanzees, given assumed rates of mutations since breaking with a last common ancestor, “for the first time you can try to estimate this number into a date and provide molecular dating of the fossil,” Meyer said. With the new resolution, the researchers estimate the age of the bone to 74,000 to 82,000 years ago. But that is a wide window, and previous archaeological estimates for the bone are a bit younger, ranging from 30,000 to 50,000 years old. These genetic estimations are also still in limbo because of ongoing debate about the average rate of genetic mutations over time, which could skew the age. “Nevertheless,” the researchers noted in their paper, “the results suggest that in the future it will be possible to determine dates of fossils based on genome sequences.”

This new sequencing approach can be used for any DNA that is too fragmented to be read well through more traditional methods. Meyer noted that it could come in handy for analysis of both ancient DNA and contemporary forensic evidence, which also often contains only fragments of genetic material.

Hawks is excited about the new sequencing technology. It is also helpful to have a technology developed specifically for the evolutionary field, he notes. “We’re always using the new techniques from other fields, and this is a case where the new technique is developed just for this.”

Hawks himself has heard from the researchers that have worked with the Denisovan samples that “the Denisovan pinky is just extraordinary” in terms of the amount of DNA preserved in it. Most bone fragments would be expected to contain less than 5 percent of the individual’s endogenous DNA, but this fortuitous finger had a surprising 70 percent, the researchers noted in the study. And many Neandertal fragments have been preserved in vastly different states—many are far worse off than this Denisovan finger bone.

The new sequencing approach could also improve our understanding of known specimens and the evolutionary landscape as a whole. “It’s going to increase the yield from other fossils,” Hawks notes. Many of the Neandertal specimens, for example, have only a small fraction of their genome sequenced. “If we can go from 2 percent to the whole genome, that opens up a lot more,” Hawks says. “Going back further in time will be exciting,” he notes, and this new technique should allow us to do that. “There’s a huge race on—it’s exciting.”

The Denisovans might be the first non-Neandertal archaic human to be sequenced, but they are likely not going to be the last. The researchers behind this new study are already at work using the new single-strand sequencing technique to reexamine older specimens. (Meyer said they were working on reassessing old samples but would not specify which specimens they were studying—the mysterious “hobbit” H. floresiensis would be a worthy candidate.) Pääbo suggests Asia as a particularly promising location to look for other Denisovan-like groups. “I would be surprised if there were not other groups to be found there in the future,” he said.

Taking this technique to specimens from Africa is also likely to yield some exciting results, Hawks says. Africa, with its rich human evolutionary history, holds the greatest genetic diversity. The genomes of contemporary pygmy and hunter–gatherer tribes in Africa, for example, have roughly as many differences as do those of European modern humans and Neandertals. So “any ancient specimen that we find in Africa might be as different from us as Neandertals,” Hawks says. “Anything we find from the right place might be another Denisovan.”

To Bring Back the Extinct (Edge)

A Conversation with Ryan Phelan [8.28.12]

 One of the fundamental questions here is, is extinction a good thing? Is it “nature’s way?” And if it’s nature’s way, who in the world says anyone should go about changing nature’s way? If something was meant to go extinct, then who are we to screw around with it and bring it back? I don’t think it’s really nature’s way. I think that the extinction that we’ve seen since man is 99.9 percent caused by man.

RYAN PHELAN is the Executive Director of Revive and Restore, a project within The Long Now Foundation, with a mission to provide deep ecological enrichment through extinct species revival.


[ ED. NOTE: The following conversation took place at the seventh annual Science Foo Camp (SciFoo), hosted by Nature, Digital Science, O’Reilly Media, and Google, August 3 – 5, 2012, at the Googleplex in Mountain View, California. Special thanks to Philip Campbell of Nature, Timo Hannay of Digital Science, Tim O’Reilly of O’Reilly Media (“Foo” stands for “friends of O’Reilly”), and Chris DiBona and Cat Allman of Google. —JB ]


TO BRING BACK THE EXTINCT

[RYAN PHELAN:] The big question that I’m asking right now is: If we could bring back an extinct species, should we? Could we? Should we? How does it benefit society? How does it advance the science? And the truth is, we’re just at the beginning of trying to figure all this out. I got inspired really thinking about this through my involvement with George Church, and I’ve been on the periphery of an organization that he started called The Personal Genome Project. Over the last seven years I’ve been working primarily in personalized medicine, keeping my eye on the application of genomic medicine in different areas, and the growth of genomics and the shockingly drop in the sequencing price, and the cost of sequencing, and what that means to all different areas of science.

One thing led to another and we started talking with George about what it would mean if we could actually apply this towards the de-extinction of species. It turns out, of course, that in George’s lab he’s pioneering in all these methods. Right now, George’s approach of basically editing the genome starts to make the concept of bringing something back really plausible.


Video 


There are right now probably three different methods that are being used to contemplate bringing back species. The most traditional is what they refer to as back breeding, and we see that going on right now with the ancient cattle called aurochs. Basically, what they do is they start by taking the strains of cattle that are closest to the ancient aurochs and try to breed back in much the way they do with plant biology and hybridization.

The other area that is being done is in cloning, and the best example of that is with the Spanish Pyrenean ibex (a wild mountain goat). They actually were able to get some cellular matter from the last remaining ibex to clone. The Spanish scientists that did all that work feel that that cloning is completely viable. The truth is that when they did that ibex, it only lasted seven minutes, because of a particular lung frailty. That’s quite common in cloning anything. That is just something that cloning technology has to deal with, so he feels really confident if he had funding he could clone an extinct species now without a problem, and solve the lung issue.

The third concept is the one that we’re focused on right now: genome editing that George Church is pioneering. The way it would work (and again, I’m not the scientist here, George is better to explain it) the idea would be to take the most closely related extant living species and actually compare it genomically with the extinct species, and basically gene by gene match it, and edit it accordingly.

The species of choice right now that we’re looking at helping, aiding, and abetting, is the passenger pigeon, and the passenger pigeon, as you may know, is an iconic bird that had flocks in the billions just over a hundred years ago. A hundred and fifty years ago the passenger pigeon darkened the sky when it would pass. They say that these flocks were so thick in the sky that when they passed it could take a mile for a flock of birds to go by. They would darken the sky. It’s an amazing concept. We don’t have anything like that today. When that happened, it went from being the most prolific bird, and in just 30 years to being extinct. Why does that matter? Well, it matters for a lot of reasons. What was going on ecologically there? What did that bird bring to that whole eastern deciduous forest? God knows, it had a tremendous impact. I think we’re just now trying to figure out what would that impact might be like today if you were to reintroduce it.

The idea with the passenger pigeon is to take a closely related relative, which is the and-tailed pigeon, and sequence that genome. We’re sequencing that right now at Harvard, with an intern that we’re helping to fund, named Ben Novak. Right now we’re in the process of doing that work, and then they will basically edit the band-tail genome until the band-tail walks, and talks, and flies like a passenger pigeon. That’s how resurgence will occur.

We’re using the term “resurgence” because as you can imagine, there’s a lot of controversy over if you could bring back an extinct species, is it invasive? Would it become an invasive species? And is this a bad thing?

We’re in the process of starting a new organization. It’s called Revive and Restore. If we were to say it has a mission, it’s to help rethink extinction, to basically bring back extinct species if it’s the right thing to do. We’re contemplating the ethics involved in all this. This fall we’ll have a conference that we’re sponsoring in Washington DC, and I think it’s going to be thrilling. We’re bringing in 25 to 35 the scientists from all over the world that are actually doing extinction work— from the Korean team that’s working on the wooly mammoth, to the New Zealand and Australian teams that are de-extincting some species yet to be identified. They’re calling it the Lazarus Project. We don’t really know what it is. It could be the Moa. There are different theories about what it is. But, hopefully, in the fall we’ll learn more about that.

We’ll be talking with these scientists about the different technologies that they’re deploying, of which this genome hybridization technique that George is doing is going to be one and I’m sure there are others. We’ll be talking about the ethics of re-wilding. It’s one thing to actually bring back a species in the lab. It’s another to actually release it into the wild. And so we’ll be talking to scientists that are working in captive breeding, like the San Diego Zoo, with the California ondor. We’ll be talking with the frozen zoos that are doing this kind of banking of genetic material, and trying to figure out what kind of ethical framework we could create, so that when these scientists actually start to succeed in these fields we can somehow socialize this in the public discourse.

What I fear, quite honestly, is backlash that we’ve seen around genetically modified foods, that these organisms will be deemed genetically modified, which, of course, they are. This is genome engineering, and there may be way too much of a concern over what happens when they go into the wild.

One of the fundamental questions here is, is extinction a good thing? Is it “nature’s way”? And if it’s nature’s way, who in the world says anyone should go about changing nature’s way? If something was meant to go extinct, then who are we to screw around with it and bring it back? I don’t think it’s really nature’s way. I think that the extinction that we’ve seen since man is 99.9 percent caused by man.

I’m going to just take the passenger pigeon as an example, not because it’s my favorite bird, but because it’s so iconic. If we are the ones that are responsible for blasting it out of the sky, do we have a little bit of responsibility to think about bringing it back now that we have science that can easily allow for it? I say “easily,” but in the scheme of things, it’s still going to be a lot of heavy lifting to help make this happen.

What does all this mean to the average citizen? A good example of a reintroduction of a species is the peregrine falcon. The peregrine falcon had actually gone extinct as a species in the East. For many of us bird lovers, we love the peregrine falcon. We love seeing that bird fly and soar like it does. But, it was really only through captive breeding and a reintroduction of a sub-species from the Rocky Mountain area that we even have a peregrine now flourishing on the East Coast. Where the peregrine falcon really wants to nest is on bridges or on the sides of skyscrapers, and that bird is now evolving into a bird that is better adapted for working in an urban environment.

What’s going to happen is, even if we were to have a passenger pigeon, they’re not going to be in the flocks of the billions any more. Their impact with agriculture will be lessened, because of an obvious reduction in size. The truth is, if anything happened with that bird, we know it’s a tremendous game bird that people loved, and probably people would be shooting it for good meat, good game.

One question is: If you could actually bring back anything, would you bring back the California grizzly bear? A species that could eat people? Well, we recently were at the California Academy of Sciences, up front and personal with “Monarch”, the last California grizzly, a beautiful specimen there, and we were joking, and not really joking, saying, “Well, what if you could genome edit the California grizzly so that it didn’t like the taste of people?” That would be kind of interesting! Big megafauna, good for the land, but take the fear of it out for people. The truth is all of this could someday be possible.

Some people have said to us, “Well, are you one click away from “Jurassic Park” here?” The truth is, we’re not. “Jurassic Park” was a good movie, if that, but the science is not there at all today, and the reason for that is that we don’t have a close relative of the dinosaurs. We just don’t have it. The only reason that this concept of bringing back an extinct species works right now is if you can take those genomes and actually edit them based on either a close living relative, or you’ve got viable cell tissue, and we don’t have that. So right now that one is not a worry. But could it be someday? Sure.

The concept of Revive and Restore is an idea that might well blossom on the West Coast, here in Silicon Valley, but the truth is that the pressures that I think all these scientists who are working in de-extinction worldwide will feel will be around this whole question of: Who are you to play God and bring back an extinct species? Who are you to introduce something that could be “invasive”? Whether it’s in academia or it’s being done in industry, I think the science is going to be challenged around this really intriguing issue. That’s why I think an organization like Revive and Restore can actually help with the public discourse.

Somebody has to responsibly help the industry and academia think through these heady issues, and I think we’re going to start that dialogue this fall. But in the absence of it, what we’re going to see is the, “Oh, my God, we’re cloning this dangerous species again,” or we’re doing something horrific with our chicken to avoid the Avian flu. These things are going to happen.

Everyone wants to bring up the Neanderthals, and interestingly enough, anyone who’s working around the Neanderthal genome is reluctant to participate in our fall workshop, because they last thing they want is to be criticized or implicated in bringing back a Neanderthal. It’s just verboten.

I’ve been dealing with this whole genetic exceptionalism now for almost a decade with personalized medicine. There has always been a hypersensitivity to anything genetic and I’m looking forward to when we get over that.


The most interesting part of all this is going to be where the science goes, what we learn from doing this. It’s not going to be necessarily about bringing back something. It’s going to be about what we learn.

Just like everything that we know that’s really innovative in science, you never know the unintended benefits or what the outcomes are going to be. Specifically, around the study of extinct species we’re going to probably learn what made them vulnerable to extinction. The implications for endangered species are tremendous. We don’t really know why things go extinct. We can surmise, but right now we could actually start to look at the genetic level, at what some of these contributory factors were, and I think that’s really exciting.

THE REALITY CLUB:

Jennifer Jacquet:  To the question of who is Ryan Phelan, or anybody else, to bring an extinct species back I would counter: who was anyone to make these animals extinct to begin with?  An estimated 869 species have gone officially and, so far, irreversibly extinct just since the 16th century, and 290 more species are considered critically endangered and possibly extinct — and in almost all cases the finger points to humans.  Many of these disappearances, like the Tasmanian tiger, the Great auk, and the Steller’s sea cow, were precipitated by a relatively small group that never asked their fellow earthlings, let alone future generations, if they wanted these animals gone forever.  Should the entire group have been queried, my guess is that its majority, certainly in the case of the large, delicate, and vegetarian Steller’s sea cow, would have answered in a resounding “No.”  (Admittedly the response might be different in the case of the saber-toothed cat, for instance, which went extinct not long after the invention of farming.)  To be in favor of human-induced extinction seems one of the pillars of myopia.

But what is a genome edited songbird brought back from extinction to do against the poachers in the Mediterranean?  What happens when the reconstituted baby Yangtze River dolphin (last seen in 2005) is released into still sullied Chinese waters?  We already have captive-bred tigers, but that hasn’t stopped the habitat fragmentation and human takeover that has led to fewer than 3500 wild tigers (there were 100,000 in 1900) today in India.  In other words, does this technical solution, which is elegant and scientifically interesting, as Phelan points out, distract from old boring problems?  Or does it necessitate more work on pollution, habitat loss, and human behavior because the species that would be the usual victims now have a shot at immortality?

Neil Armstrong Carried Argentine Soccer Team Pennant to the Moon (Fox News)

Published August 26, 2012

Armstrong-moon-ART.jpg

New York City welcomes the Apollo 11 crew in a showering of ticker tape down Broadway and Park Avenue August 13, 1969 in a parade termed as the largest in the city’s history. Pictured in the lead car, from the right, are astronauts Neil A. Armstrong, commander; Michael Collins, command module pilot; and Edwin E. Aldrin Jr., lunar module pilot. (Photo by NASA/Newsmakers)

Astronaut Neil Armstrong, who died earlier this weekend, carried a pennant belonging to Argentina’s Independiente de Avellaneda on his history-making 1969 trip to the Moon.

Armstrong, who passed away on Saturday at the age of 82 due to complications from recent heart surgery, confirmed during a November 1969 trip to Buenos Aires that he carried the souvenir to the Moon.

The first man to walk on the Moon visited Argentina’s capital along with Apollo 11 crewmates Edwin “Buzz” Aldrin and Michael Collins as part of a global tour organized by NASA.

Armstrong landed on the Moon with Aldrin on July 20, 1969, in the lunar module Eagle while Collins circled overhead aboard the command module Columbia.

The space pioneer said he had carried the pennant to the Moon, confirming statements by team officials that had been called into question by the public in Argentina at the time.

Hector Rodriguez, who served as Independiente’s public affairs chief at the time, proposed making Armstrong, Aldrin and Collins honorary partners in the team before Apollo 11’s voyage to the Moon.

“If they are going to be the greatest heroes of the century, they have to be Independiente partners,” Rodriguez said at the time.

Team management agreed to the deal and the three astronauts were registered as partners, with Aldrin as No. 80,399, Armstrong as No. 80,400 and Collins as No. 80,401.

Identification cards bearing photos provided by the U.S. Embassy in Buenos Aires were sent to the United States along with club pennants and gear for the astronauts’ children.

Armstrong thanked the team for its gesture in a May 1969 letter and said he wished to “be able to visit Buenos Aires soon and that circumstances will allow me to accept your invitation to visit the club,” an event that never took place.

Rodriguez was invited to a reception held for the astronauts in Buenos Aires by U.S. Ambassador to Argentina John Davis Lodge.

Armstrong said during the reception that the Independiente pennant brought the astronauts good luck on the trip to the Moon.

The story makes partners and fans of Independiente, which has won a record seven Libertadores Cups, proud.

The team, however, is currently struggling and could be relegated from Argentina’s First Division, something that has never happened before.

Chimpanzees Create ‘Social Traditions’: Unique Handclasp Grooming Behavior Reveals Local Difference (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 28, 2012) — Researchers have revealed that chimpanzees are not only capable of learning from one another, but also use this social information to form and maintain local traditions.

Wrist-to-wrist grooming handclasp. (Credit: Mark Bodamer)

A research collaboration between the Gonzaga University and the Max Planck Institute shows that the way in which chimpanzees groom each other depends on the community to which they belong. Specifically, it is the unique handclasp grooming behaviour that reveals this local difference.

The specific behaviour that the researchers focused on was the ‘grooming handclasp’, a behaviour where two chimpanzees clasp onto each other’s arms, raise those arms up in the air, and groom each other with their free arm. This behaviour has only been observed in some chimpanzee populations. The question remained whether chimpanzees are instinctively inclined to engage in grooming handclasp behaviour, or whether they learn this behaviour from each other and pass it on to subsequent generations.

Edwin van Leeuwen and Katherine Cronin of the Comparative Cognitive Anthropology research group of the Max Planck Institute for Psycholinguistics led by Daniel Haun conducted their observations between 2007 and 2012 at the Chimfunshi Wildlife Orphanage Trust in Zambia. At Chimfunshi, a mix of wild- and captive-born chimpanzees live in woodlands in some of the largest enclosures in the world. The Max Planck team collaborated with students from Gonzaga University led by Mark Bodamer, a team of local chimpanzee caretakers, and Roger Mundry of the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in order to collect and comprehend the detailed chimpanzee data.

Previous research suggested that the grooming handclasp might be a cultural phenomenon, just like humans across cultures engage in different ways of greeting each other. However, these suggestions were primarily based on observations that some chimpanzee communities handclasp and others don’t — not whether there are differences between communities that engage in handclasping. Moreover, the early observations could have been explained by differences in genetic and/or ecological factors between the chimpanzee communities, which precluded the interpretation that the chimpanzees were exhibiting ‘cultural’ differences.

The present research shows that even between chimpanzee communities that engage in the grooming handclasp, subtle yet stable differences exist in the styles that they prefer: one chimpanzee group highly preferred the style where they would grasp each other’s hands during the grooming, while another group engaged much more in a style where they would fold their wrists around each other’s wrists.

“We don’t know what mechanisms account for these differences,” van Leeuwen says. “But our study at least reveals that these chimpanzee communities formed and maintained their own local grooming traditions over the last 5 years. Our observations may also indicate that chimpanzees can overcome their innate predispositions, potentially allowing them to manipulate their environment based on social constructs rather than on mere instincts.”

Apart from the different style preferences of the chimpanzee communities, the research team also observed that the grooming handclasp behaviour was a long-lasting part of the chimpanzees’ behavioural repertoire: the behaviour was even transmitted to the next generation of potential handclaspers.

“By following the chimpanzees over time, we were able to show that 20 young chimpanzees gradually developed the handclasp behaviour over the course of the five-year study. The first handclasps by young individuals were mostly in partnership with their mothers. These observations support the conclusion that these chimpanzees socially learn their local tradition, and that this might be evidence of social culture,” Bodamer explains.

“Continued monitoring of these groups of chimpanzees will shed light on the question of how these group-traditions are maintained over time and potentially even why the chimpanzees like to raise their arms up in the air during social grooming in the first place,” van Leeuwen adds.

Journal Reference:

  1. Edwin J. C. van Leeuwen, Katherine A. Cronin, Daniel B. M. Haun, Roger Mundry and Mark D. Bodamer. Neighbouring chimpanzee communities show different preferences in social grooming behaviourProceedings of the Royal Society B, August 29, 2012

Twitter Data Crunching: The New Crystal Ball (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 29, 2012) — Fabio Ciulla from Northeastern University, Boston, USA, and his colleagues demonstrated that the elimination of contestants in TV talent shows based on public voting, such as American Idol, can be anticipated. They unveiled the predictive power of microblogging Twitter signals–used as a proxy for the general preference of an audience–in a study recently published in EPJ Data Science.

The authors considered the voting system of these shows as a basic test to assess the predictive power of Twitter signals. They relied on the overlap between Twitter users and show audience to collect extremely detailed data on social behaviour on a massive scale. This approach provided a unique and unprecedented opportunity to apply network science to social media. Social phenomena can thus be studied in a completely unobtrusive way. Previously, Twitter has already been used to forecast epidemics spreading, stock market behaviour and election outcomes with varying degrees of success.

In this study, the authors demonstrated that the Twitter activity during the time span limited to the TV show airing and the voting period following it correlated with the contestants’ ranking. As a result, it helped predict the outcome of the votes. This approach offers a simplified version helping to analyse complex societal phenomena such as political elections. Unlike previous voting systems, Twitter offers a quantitative indicator that can act as proxy for what is occurring around the world in real time, thereby anticipating the outcome of future events based on opinions.

Ciulla and colleagues also showed that the fraction of tweets that included geolocalisation information enabled to internationally map the fan base of each contestant. They identified a strong influence by the geographical origin of the votes, suggesting a different outcome to the show, if voting had not been limited to US voters.

Journal Reference:

  1. Fabio Ciulla, Delia Mocanu, Andrea Baronchelli, Bruno Goncalves, Nicola Perra, Alessandro Vespignani. Beating the news using Social Media: the case study of American IdolEPJ Data Science, 2012; 1 (1): 8 DOI:10.1140/epjds8

Gene That Predicts Happiness in Women Discovered (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 28, 2012) — A new study has found a gene that appears to make women happy, but it doesn’t work for men. The finding may help explain why women are often happier than men, the research team said.

A new study has found a gene that appears to make women happy, but it doesn’t work for men. The finding may help explain why women are often happier than men. (Credit: © Yuri Arcurs / Fotolia)

Scientists at the University of South Florida (USF), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), Columbia University and the New York State Psychiatric Institute reported that the low-expression form of the gene monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) is associated with higher self-reported happiness in women. No such association was found in men.

The findings appear online in the journal Progress in Neuro-Psychopharmacology & Biological Psychiatry.

“This is the first happiness gene for women,” said lead author Henian Chen, MD, PhD, associate professor in the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, USF College of Public Health.

“I was surprised by the result, because low expression of MAOA has been related to some negative outcomes like alcoholism, aggressiveness and antisocial behavior,” said Chen, who directs the Biostatistics Core at the USF Health Morsani College of Medicine’s Clinical and Translational Sciences Institute. “It’s even called the warrior gene by some scientists, but, at least for women, our study points to a brighter side of this gene.”

While they experience higher rates of mood and anxiety disorders, women tend to report greater overall life happiness than do men. The reason for this remains unclear, Chen said. “This new finding may help us to explain the gender difference and provide more insight into the link between specific genes and human happiness.”

The MAOA gene regulates the activity of an enzyme that breaks down serontin, dopamine and other neurotransmitters in the brain — the same “feel-good” chemicals targeted by many antidepressants. The low-expression version of the MAOA gene promotes higher levels of monoamine, which allows larger amounts of these neurotransmitters to stay in the brain and boost mood.

The researchers analyzed data from a population-based sample of 345 individuals — 193 women and 152 men — participating in Children in the Community, a longitudinal mental health study. The DNA of study subjects had been analyzed for MAOA gene variation and their self-reported happiness was scored by a widely used and validated scale.

After controlling for various factors, ranging from age and education to income, the researchers found that women with the low-expression type of MAOA were significantly happier than others. Compared to women with no copies of the low-expression version of the MAOA gene, women with one copy scored higher on the happiness scale and those with two copies increased their score even more.

While a substantial number of men carried a copy of the “happy” version of the MAOA gene, they reported no more happiness than those without it.

So, why the genetic gender gap in feeling good?

The researchers suspect the difference may be explained in part by the hormone testosterone, found in much smaller amounts in women than in men. Chen and his co-authors suggest that testosterone may cancel out the positive effect of MAOA on happiness in men.

The potential benefit of MAOA in boys could wane as testosterone levels rise with puberty, Chen said. “Maybe men are happier before adolescence because their testosterone levels are lower.”

Chen emphasizes that more research is needed to identify which specific genes influence resilience and subjective well-being, especially since studies of twins estimate genetic factors account for 35 to 50 percent of the variance in human happiness.

While happiness is not determined by a single gene, there is likely a set of genes that, along with life experiences, shape our individual happiness levels, Chen said. “I think the time is right for more genetic studies that focus on well-being and happiness.”

“Certainly it could be argued that how well-being is enhanced deserves at least as much attention as how (mental) disorders arise; however, such knowledge remains limited.”

The study by Chen and colleagues was supported by the National Institutes of Health and a USF proposal enhancement grant.

Journal Reference:

  1. Henian Chen, Daniel S. Pine, Monique Ernst, Elena Gorodetsky, Stephanie Kasen, Kathy Gordon, David Goldman, Patricia Cohen. The MAOA gene predicts happiness in womenProgress in Neuro-Psychopharmacology and Biological Psychiatry, 2012; DOI:10.1016/j.pnpbp.2012.07.018

Beliefs Drive Investors More Than Preferences (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 28, 2012) — If experts thought they knew anything about individual investors, it was this: their emotions lead them to sell winning stocks too soon and hold on to losers too long.

But new research casts doubt on this widely held theory that individual investors’ decisions are driven mainly by their feelings toward losses and gains. In an innovative study, researchers found evidence that individual investors’ decisions are primarily motivated by their beliefs about a stock’s future.

“The story is not about whether an investor hates losing or loves gains — it’s not primarily a story about preferences,” said Itzhak Ben-David, co-author of the study and assistant professor of finance at Ohio State University’s Fisher College of Business.

“It is a story about information and speculation. The investor has a belief about where a stock is headed and that’s what he acts on. Investors act more on their beliefs than their preferences.”

Ben-David conducted the study with David Hirshleifer of the Paul Merage School of Business at the University of California, Irvine. Their results appear in the August 2012 issue of the journal Review of Financial Studies.

The researchers studied stock transactions from more than 77,000 accounts at a large discount broker from 1990 through 1996 and did a variety of analyses that had never been done before. They examined when investors bought individual stocks, when they sold them, and how much they earned or lost with each sale.

The result was a radical rethinking of why individual investors sell winning stocks and hold on to losers.

The findings don’t mean that investors don’t have an aversion to losses and a desire to sell winners, Ben-David said. But the trading data suggests that these feelings aren’t dominating their decisions.

“People have a variety of reasons for trading stocks, which may include tax issues, margin calls, and an aversion to losses. These all may play a role, but what we show that beliefs are dominant for the trading of retail investors.”

The tendency to sell winners too early and to keep losers too long has been called the “disposition effect” by economists.

“The disposition effect has been well-documented. The question is what we make of it. A lot of people look at the data and interpret it as meaning that the typical retail investor is irrational, simply reacting to their feelings about gains and losses,” he said.

“But what we find is that, looking at the data, we can’t really learn about their preferences. We don’t learn about what they like or don’t like. Surely, they don’t like to lose money — but their reasons for selling stocks are more complex than that.”

The simplest test was to see what investors do when a stock is trading just slightly higher or lower than the price they paid — in other words a small winner or a small loser.

If investors really did make stock trades based simply on their pleasure in making money and their aversion to realizing losses, a small winner should lead to more sales than a small loser.

But this study found that investors were not clearly more likely to sell when it was a small winner than when it was a small loser.

Another piece of evidence against the theory that investors’ decisions are driven by their aversion to realizing losses was the fact that, the more a stock lost value, the more likely investors were to sell it.

“If investors had an aversion to realizing losses, larger losses should reduce the probability they would sell, but we found the opposite — larger losses were associated with a higher probability of selling,” Ben-David said.

Interestingly, the stocks that investors sell the least are those that did not have a price change since purchase.

Another clue is the fact that men and frequent traders were more likely than others to sell winning stocks quickly to reap their profits and sell losers quickly to cut their losses.

“Past research has shown that overconfidence in investing is associated with men and frequent traders,” Ben-David said. “They have a belief in their superior knowledge and so you would expect them to buy and sell more quickly than others as they speculate on stock prices. That’s exactly what we found. They are engaged in belief-based trading.”

The researchers also examined when investors were more likely to buy additional shares of a stock that they had previously purchased. They found that the probability of buying additional shares is greater for shares that lost value than it was for shares that gained value.

That shouldn’t happen if investors are really acting on emotions rather than beliefs, Ben-David said.

“If you buy additional shares of a stock that has lost value, that suggests you are acting on your beliefs that the stock is really a winner and other people have just not realized it yet,” he said.

“You wouldn’t buy additional shares of a losing stock if your biggest motivation was to avoid realizing losses.”

However, Ben-David noted that just because investors act on beliefs rather than feelings doesn’t mean they are acting rationally.

“They may be overconfident in their own abilities. It is a different kind of irrationality from being averse to selling losers,” Ben-David said.

This study’s suggestion that investors act more on beliefs than preferences is likely to make waves in the economics profession, he said.

“In economics, these two stories are very different. Beliefs and preferences are very different concepts, and it is important to distinguish them and how they affect investors. Many economists had thought that an irrational aversion to selling losers was crucial for the trading decisions of retail investors.”

Journal Reference:

  1. I. Ben-David, D. Hirshleifer. Are Investors Really Reluctant to Realize Their Losses? Trading Responses to Past Returns and the Disposition EffectReview of Financial Studies, 2012; 25 (8): 2485 DOI:10.1093/rfs/hhs077

Skeptical Uses of ‘Religion’ in Debate on Climate Change (The Yale Forum on Climate Change & The Media)

Michael Svoboda   August 27, 2012

Religion’ and religion-inspired terms — savior, prophet, priests, heretic, dogma, crusade — are regularly used in efforts to influence public attitudes about climate change. But how does this language work, and on whom?

Over the past several months The Yale Forum has published a series of articles describing how major religious groups across America address climate change. Within the broader societal debate on this issue, however, the voices heard in these pieces may be outnumbered by those of a group with a very different take on the connections between religion and the environment: climate skeptics.

Since 2005, in op-eds published in newspapers (The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Examiner, The Washington Post, and The Washington Times), in magazines (Forbes, National Review, The Weekly Standard), and online (Fox News and Townhall and also climate-specific websites like Watts Up with That), conservative commentators have repeatedly described global warming as a religion.

So how does this use of religious language affect the public understanding of climate change? To answer this question, the Forum analyzed more than 250 op-eds, blog posts, and books published between 2005 and the present. The results suggest that this religious language may be most effective in fortifying the opinions of those using it: Calling global warming a “religion” effectively neutralizes appeals to “the scientific consensus.”

Taking the Measure of the Meme

To take your own quick measure of the global-warming-as-religion (hereafter GWAR) meme, try two related searches at Google: first search for “climate change” and “religion,” then for “global warming” and “religion.” The top ten items from the Forum‘s two most recent searches (20 items in all) broke down as follows:

  • 10% were by religious groups calling for action on climate change,
  • 25% were about religious groups calling for action on climate change,
  • 10% were against religious groups opposed to action on climate,
  • 50% described concern for global warming as a religion, and
  • 5% rebutted those who described concern for global warming as a religion.

Based on this sample, one is more likely to encounter an article or op-ed about global warming as a religion than an article or op-ed explaining how or whether a particular religious group addresses climate change.

The dominance of the GWAR meme is even greater when one looks specifically at conservative venues. Over the past year, approximately 100 op-ed pieces that touched on global warming were published in nationally recognized conservative newspapers and/or by nationally syndicated columnists whose work is aggregated by Townhall. Ten of these pieces equated accepting the science on global warming with religious belief; none offered a religious argument for action on climate change.

During the peak years of Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth (2006–2008), the ratio was far higher. Roughly 40% of the more than 150 conservative op-eds penned in response to the documentary, to its Academy Award, or to Al Gore’s Nobel Peace Prize included language (prophet, priests, savior, crusade, faith, dogma, heresy, faith, etc.) that framed concern for climate change as a religious belief. Some drew that analogy explicitly. (See, for example, Richard Lindzen’s March 8, 2007, op-ed piece forThe Wall Street Journal and The Daily Mail (UK) — “Global Warming: The Bogus Religion of Our Age.”)

And since then several climate skeptics — Christopher Horner (2007), Iain Murray (2008), Roy Spencer (2008), Christopher Booker (2009), Ian Wishart (2009), Steve Goreham (2010), Larry Bell (2011), Brian Sussman (2012), and Robert Zubrin (2012) — have included the GWAR meme in their books.

A Brief History of the Global-Warming-as-Religion Meme

The global-warming-as-religion meme is an offshoot of the environmentalism-as-religion meme, which, according to New American Foundation fellow and Arizona State University Law Professor Joel Garreau, can be traced back to religious critiques of Lynn White’s 1967 essay in Science, “The Historical Roots of Our Ecologic Crisis.” By pinning the ecological blame on the Judaeo-Christian tradition’s instrumental view of nature, these authors argued, White seemed to call for the revival of nature worship.

Elements of these early critiques were reworked in what is perhaps the most well-known instance of the environmentalism-as-religion argument, Michael Crichton’s speech to the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco in 2003.

The first* example of the more specific global-warming-as-religion claim appears to be the aside in Republican Senator James Inhofe’s January 4, 2005, “update” to his “greatest hoax” speech: “Put simply, man-induced global warming is an article of religious faith.” Using slightly different language, Inhofe repeated this charge a few months later in his “Four Pillars of Climate Alarmism” speech.**

In between these two speeches, in a February 16, 2005, editorial for Capitalism Magazine by American Policy Center President Tom DeWeese, the GWAR meme gained titular status: “The New Religion Is Global Warming.”

But the most fully developed version of the global-warming-as-religion analogy is the nearly 5,000-word essay published on the Web in 2007 by retired British mathematician John Brignell — who cites Crichton’s 2003 speech in his opening paragraph.

The more generic environmentalism-as-religion meme now seems confined to Earth Day, which Emory University economics professor Paul Rubin described in an April 22, 2010, WSJ op-ed piece as environmentalism’s “holy day.” Two recent examples, from this past April, were provided by former business consultant W.A. Beatty and by Dale Hurd, a “news veteran” for the Christian Broadcasting Network.

The GWAR meme appears as opportunities — cool summers; early, late, or heavy snowstorms; or scandals — arise. And its meaning can vary accordingly.

Nature/Climate as Sacred

Some of the first American “environmentalists” — David Thoreau, Ralph Waldo Emerson, John Muir — often used religious language. Nature was where they most vividly experienced the presence of God. But when contemporary environmentalists use quasi-religious language without explicitly avowing a particular faith, their opponents may suspect that nature itself has become the object of their worship. When James Lovelock named his homeostatic model of the planet and its atmosphere after the ancient Greek earth goddess, Gaia, he provided a new ground for this suspicion.

For conservatives, there are strong and weak versions of this charge.

The strong charge is “paganism,” that environmentalists or climate activists/scientists worship nature in ways akin to the practices of the Egyptian, Mesopotamian, Greek, and Roman empires in which the ancient Jews and early Christians lived. This strong charge is typically leveled by evangelicals who publicly profess their own faith. Physicist James Wanliss and his colleagues — whose book and dvd,Resisting the Green Dragon, offer “A Biblical Response to One of the Greatest Deceptions of the Day” — provide perhaps the most vivid example.

The weak version reduces the charge of paganism to misplaced values. Very arch religious language may still be used, but the meaning is now metaphorical. In these more frequent instances of the GWAR meme, conservatives accuse climate activists/scientists of essentializing climate, of being too willing to slow or even disable our economic engine because they believe Earth has an “optimal climate.”

Climate Science as Cult

“Cult” implies that a given set of beliefs or practices is arcane, outside the mainstream, and insular. Someone embedded in a cult will not acknowledge conflicting evidence. So whenever new facts or dramatic events challenge the validity of climate science, at least in the minds of conservative skeptics, “cult of global warming” op-eds appear. Major snowstorms, cold snaps, and years that fail to surpass 1998′s average annual temperature provide these new “facts.”

Odd religious news can also prompt “cult of global warming” op-eds. The third no-show of Harold Camping’s apocalypse provided the prompt, last fall, for op-eds by Michael Barone and Derek Hunter. (The “cult” in the title of Michael Barone’s piece, however, may be the work of the Post’s editor; thesame piece appeared under a different title in The Washington Examiner.)

Climate Science as Corrupt Orthodoxy

But it’s hard to depict a thoroughly institutionalized effort like climate science as a cult. The international undertaking that is science is more plausibly compared with the Roman Catholic Church. And for climate skeptics, the best of the many possible instances of that church is the Roman Catholic Church of the late Renaissance, the church that condemned both Luther and Galileo.

The very Nobel public profiles of Al Gore and the IPCC, from 2006 to 2008, prompted many comparisons with priests and popes, cardinals and curia. Add in carbon offsets and the Reformation riffs practically wrote themselves. Conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer’s March 16, 2007,column in Time exemplifies this subgenre:

In other words, the rich reduce their carbon output by not one ounce. But drawing on the hundreds of millions of net worth in the Kodak theatre [for the “carbon-neutral” 2007 Academy Awards], they pull out lunch money to buy ecological indulgences. The last time the selling of pardons was prevalent — in a predecessor religion to environmentalism called Christianity — Martin Luther lost his temper and launched the Reformation.

(It should be noted, however, that climate activists and environmental journalists have themselves sometimes written about their ecological “sins.”)

While green hypocrisy was the primary target of Krauthammer’s 2007 column, orthodoxy and dogma are always at least secondary targets in this use of the GWAR meme. And shots were taken at them in a February 9, 2007, National Review column by Rich Lowry; a May 30, 2008, Washington Post column by Charles Krauthammer; a March 9, 2009, Townhall piece by Robert Knight; a January 13, 2010, Townhallcolumn by Walter E. Williams; a November 29, 2011, Wall Street Journal column by Bret Stephens; and, most recently, an April 26, 2012, post by David Solway. This is the most common use of the GWAR meme.

Dissenting Religions and the Scientific Consensus

But one might argue that by depicting climate scientists and activists as members of an aloof and self-serving (and possibly self-deluding) priesthood, conservatives are themselves engaged in religious posturing, for self-righteous dissent is part of the DNA of the western religious tradition.

Ancient Israel was a small country surrounded by much more powerful empires. Some heroes of the Bible — e.g., Daniel, Shadrach, Meshach, and Abednego — worked as trusted bureaucrats within state-ecclesiastical systems based on cosmologies they did not believe in. When ordered to consent to the beliefs of their rulers, they refused.

During the Protestant Reformation religious dissent often became political dissent. Today’s evangelicals are dissenters from mainstream denominations that dissented first from the Church of England and then from King George. Now they dissent from Washington.

But in the U.S., Roman Catholics too can view themselves as a dissenting minority, as, for example, when the Catholic Bishops objected to parts of the new healthcare law.

In fact, Americans are so primed for dissensus that both sides in the climate debate find it plausible to claim the mantle of Galileo.


In the run-up to the December 2009 conference in Copenhagen, cartoonists Michael Ramirez and David Horsey published cartoons that drew exactly opposite conclusions from the history of science, including Galileo’s conflict with the Roman Catholic Church regarding Copernicus’s heliocentric model of the solar system.

Within this charged religious history, a steadfast minority (of Jews, early Christians, Protestants, or Puritans) has been correct more often than the majority, than the broader cultural consensus (of Egyptians/Assyrians/Babylonians/Persians, Greeks/Romans, Roman Catholics, or Anglicans). Thus the GWAR meme not only legitimizes dissent (because everyone is entitled to his or her own religious views), it also provides emotional reinforcement for it (because the “official” religion is almost always “false”). The Protestant vs. Catholic variant of the meme also reinforces climate skeptics’ narratives about greedy and scheming scientists and/or self-serving elites. For those who use it, the GWAR meme effectively inoculates them against “the scientific consensus.”

Managing the Meme

Much has been said and published by religious leaders trying to promote action on climate change. But these messages must compete against the global-warming-as-religion meme reinforced regularly in op-eds sent out by The Wall Street Journal to its two million plus subscribers and, more frequently, in columns posted by Townhall for its two million unique monthly visitors.

Are there counter-measures for this meme?

In his summer 2010 article in The New Atlantis, Joel Garreau, New American Foundation fellow and Lincoln Professor of Law, Culture and Values (Sandra Day O’Connor College of Law, Arizona State University), traced the emergence of environmentalism as a secular religion. In that piece, Gerreau speculated that “the two faces of religious environmentalism — the greening of mainstream religion and the rise of carbon Calvinism — may each transform the political and policy debate over climate change.” In response to an e-mailed query from The Yale Forum, after stressing that he did not “conflate faith-based environmentalism with the scientific study of climate,” Garreau explained his “pragmat[ic]” outlook:  ”I just lay out the facts (as startling as they may be to some), observe that faith-based systems are ubiquitous in history, and then ask, in public policy terms, how you deal with this situation.”

Garreau said he is not surprised that “climate change deniers [might] wish to point out the ironies of faith-based environmentalism rising up in parallel with scientific environmentalism.” But he said he does not think that would have much effect. He suggested no countermeasures but did anticipate a possible line of attack: “It would hardly be surprising if there were a few under-examined pieties in their own world view.”

From the title of University of Maryland School of Public Policy professor Robert H. Nelson’s 2010 book,The New Holy Wars: Economic Religion vs. Environmental Religion in Contemporary America, one might infer that the playing field for climate policy might be leveled by calling attention to the equally religious faith in economics, in economic growth in particular. But what would be gained from a “religious” standoff between economics and environmentalism? In response to an e-mail question, Nelson listed three benefits:

First, … it helps us to understand … the … intensity of the disagreements about climate policy. Second, it offers a note of caution to all participants, given [that past] religious disagreements have too often escalated beyond all reason …. Third, … [s]eeing economics and environmentalism as religions, and discussing them as such, [would bring their] core value assumptions to the surface.

In other words, pushing back with the same religious language might be an effective countermeasure, at least initially. Then, Nelson added,  ”a secular religious ‘ecumenical movement’” could perhaps resolve the tensions between economics and environmentalism.

One clearly should proceed with caution in pursuing any “religious” countermeasures. The cultural and historical associations evoked by religious language do not necessarily favor “consensus,” especially a consensus presented in authoritative terms. In American history, religious groups have splintered far more often than they have united.

Bottom line: Climate communicators should expect and prepare for religious language. But they should weigh the subtle cultural messages religious language carries before deciding whether or how to use or respond to it.

*If readers know of an earlier example, please send the reference and/or the link to the author.
**Brian McCammack’s September 2007 
American Quarterly article, “Hot Damned America: Evangelicalism and the Climate Policy Debate,” pointed the way to these two speeches by Senator Inhofe.

Michael Svoboda

Michael Svoboda (PhD, Hermeneutics) is an Asst. Prof. of Writing at The George Washington University. Previously the owner of an academic bookstore, he now tracks and analyzes efforts to communicate climate change, including the stream of research and policy published by NGOs. E-mail: msvoboda@yaleclimatemediaforum.org

Intriguing Habitats, and Careful Discussions of Climate Change (N.Y.Times)

THE ANIMAL LIFEBOAT

Gretchen Ertl for The New York TimesPacific Sea nettle jellyfish at the New England Aquarium in Boston. Zoos and aquariums are working to include educational elements about the environment without alienating visitors.

By 

Published: August 26, 2012

BOSTON — Sitting on an artificial mangrove island in the middle of the ray and shark “touch tank,” Lindsay Jordan, a staff member at the New England Aquarium, explained the rays’ eating habits as children and their parents trailed fingers through the water. “Does anyone know how we touch these animals when we are not at the aquarium?” she asked.

The children’s faces turned up expectantly.

“The ocean absorbs one-third of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions,” Ms. Jordan said, explaining that it upsets the food chain. “When you turn on your car, it affects them.”

Downstairs, next to the jellyfish tanks, a rhyming video told how the jellyfish population was exploding in the wild because they thrive in warmer waters. In the main room, a staff member pointed to a rare blue lobster, saying that some lobsters have been scuttling out of Massachusetts and settling in cooler climes to the north.

With many zoos and aquariums now working with conservation organizations and financed by individuals who feel strongly about threatened habitats and species, managers have been wrestling with how aggressive to be in educating visitors on the perils of climate change.

Surveys show that American zoos and aquariums enjoy a high level of public trust and are ideally positioned to teach.

Yet many managers are fearful of alienating visitors — and denting ticket sales — with tours or wall labels that dwell bleakly on damaged coral reefs, melting ice caps or dying trees.

“You don’t want them walking away saying, ‘I paid to get in, I bought my kid a hot dog, I just want to show my kid a fish — and you are making me feel bad about climate change,’ ” said Paul Boyle, the senior vice president for conservation and education at the Association of Zoos and Aquariums.

Some zoos and aquariums have therefore held back, relegating the theme to, say, a sign about Arctic melting in the polar bear exhibit. But many have headed in the other direction, putting climate change front and center in a way that they hope will inspire a young generation of zoogoers.

Working with cognitive scientists and experts in linguistics and anthropology, a coalition of aquariums set out in 2008 to develop a patter that would intrigue rather than daunt or depress the average visitor. After the group was pleased with the script, it secured a grant of about $1 million last year from the National Science Foundation to train staffs across the nation. This month, the foundation awarded the group an additional $5.5 million for a five-year education effort.

Dr. Boyle said that most of the association’s 224 members now have some sort of climate message.

The form varies from subtle to pointed. The zoos in Cincinnati and Toledo, Ohio, for instance, have installed prominent solar arrays over their parking lots to power exhibits and set an example. The San Diego Zoo and the Brookfield Zoo near Chicago have made their exhibits of polar bears and other Arctic species more direct about the threats posed by global warming.

So far the feedback has largely been positive, officials at most zoos say.

Ariella Camera, a counselor with a summer program run by Boston Rising, an antipoverty group, said some of her charges recently took part in a game at the New England Aquarium that taught them what emits carbon dioxide (many factories, most cars) and what absorbs it (trees and the ocean). They were then challenged to balance the two.

Afterward the students struck up a lively conversation about their carbon footprints, Ms. Camera said. “It was a very engaging presentation,” she said.

Such anecdotes gratify Howard Ris, the aquarium’s president. “We would like as many people, if not everyone, to leave encouraged to take action,” he said.

Others are dubious that it will work. “Zoos have been making claims about their educational value for 150 years,” said Jeffrey Hyson, a cultural historian and the director of the American studies program at St. Joseph’s University in Philadelphia. The zoos “say a lot more about what they think they are doing than they can really demonstrate.”

Zoo managers acknowledge that they initially struggled with the challenge of delivering bad news.

In the 1980s and ’90s, Dr. Boyle noted, some zoos and aquariums made a big push to emphasize threats like the depletion of the earth’s ozone layer, the razing of rain forests by loggers and farmers and the overfishing of the Pacific. Electronic boards toted up the numbers of acres being cleared, and enlarged photographs depicted denuded landscapes.

Surveys of visitors showed a backlash. “For lots of reasons, the institutions tended to approach the issues by talking about the huge scale of the problems,” Dr. Boyle said. “They wanted to attract people’s attention, but what we saw happening over time was that everyday people were overwhelmed.” It did not help that a partisan split had opened in the United States over whether global warming was under way, and whether human activity was the leading cause.

At the Georgia Aquarium in Atlanta, Brian Davis, the vice president for education and training, says to this day his institution ensures its guests will not hear the term global warming. Visitors are “very conservative,” he said. “When they hear certain terms, our guests shut down. We’ve seen it happen.”

Such hesitancy inspired the group of leading aquariums to develop, test and refine their model, which comes off as casual and chatty.

Word choices matter, research showed. The FrameWorks Institute, a nonprofit organization that studies how people process abstract concepts, found the phrase “greenhouse gas effect” perplexed people. “They think it is a nice place for plants to grow,” said FrameWorks’ president, Susan Bales. So her group advised substituting “heat-trapping blanket” to describe the accumulation of gases in the atmosphere.

Today’s guides also make a point of encouraging groups to focus first on the animals, leaving any unpleasant message for later.

At the New England Aquarium’s giant reef tank, visitors peered over the side and watched sand tiger sharks, sea turtles and tropical fish swim around a giant coral reef. As a diver entered the tank to feed the fish, a guide explained that the smaller ones tend to hide in coral for safety.

A few minutes passed before she told the crowd that corals around the world are bleaching and dying because of a pronounced rise in ocean temperature and acidity.

Upon leaving, the visitors were briefed on positive steps they could take, like using public transportation or bikes and being cautious about energy consumption.

Yet sometimes, the zoo animals are so entrancing that a climate-related message may fall on deaf ears.

Leanne Gaffney, who recently brought four high school students from a summer enrichment program to the New England Aquarium, said they were fascinated by creatures like leafy sea dragons and tropical snakes, but not so much by how their habitats were faring.

“They are teenage boys,” she said. “Mostly they just wanted to see the anacondas.”

Ape ‘genius’ smarter than the average chimp (Discovery News)

Geniuses exist among non-humans, but no one attribute constitutes intelligence.

By Jennifer Viegas – Mon Aug 27, 2012 06:01 AM ET

Chimp

Natasha, who appears in this photo, outperformed other chimps on tests given by researchers to measure intelligence. Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology/Esther Herrmann

Certain apes appear to be much smarter than others, with at least one chimpanzee now called “exceptional” when compared to other chimps.

The standout chimp, an adult female in her 20s named Natasha, scored off the charts in a battery of tests. The findings, published in the latest Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, suggest that geniuses exist among non-humans, but that no one attribute constitutes intelligence.

Instead, a perfect storm of abilities seems to come together to create the Einsteins of the animal kingdom. Natasha’s keepers at the Ngamba Island chimpanzee sanctuary in Uganda knew she was special even before the latest study.

“The caretakers named Natasha as the smartest chimpanzee, precisely the same chimpanzee that our tests had revealed to be exceptional,” study authors Esther Herrmann and Josep Call of the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology wrote.

“All three of the most experienced caretakers included Natasha in their lists (of the most intelligent chimps),” they added.

Natasha has made headlines over the months for her attention-grabbing antics. For instance, she repeatedly escaped her former enclosure, surrounded by an electric fence. She did this by tossing branches at the fence until she didn’t see a spark, letting her know that the power was off.

She also learned how to tease humans, beckoning them to throw food her way, only to spray the unsuspecting person with water.

Herrmann and Call decided to study this chimp, along with numerous others, to see if there really are chimp prodigies among non-human great apes. To do this, the researchers created a multi-part mental challenge consisting of eight tasks.

chimp"WATCH VIDEO: See how chimp family groups cope with the death of a close relative. (Caution: Images may be disturbing to some viewers.)

For the first task, the chimps had to find hidden food, testing their spatial knowledge. For the second, the chimps wielded a tool — avoiding a trap — to again obtain a food reward. The remaining tasks demonstrated understanding of things like color, size and shape.

“We identified some individuals who consistently scored well across (the) multiple tasks,” wrote the authors, who again made note of Natasha, who aced nearly every task.

The researchers could not identify “a general intelligence factor.” They instead indicate that ape intelligence might be a bundling of skills related to learning, tool usage, understanding of quantities, and an ability to reach conclusions based on evidence and reasoning.

As the saying goes, necessity may be the mother of invention and, at least in some cases, one reason behind chimp cleverness.

Call, for example, told Discovery News about chimps that make tools for extracting termites out of mounds. The process requires several steps.

“They uproot the stem or use their teeth to clip the stem at the base and then remove the large leaf from the distal end by clipping it with their teeth before transporting the stem to the termite nest, where they complete tool manufacture by modifying the end into a ‘paint brush’ tip by pulling the stem through their teeth, splitting the probe lengthwise by pulling off strands of fiber, or separating the fibers by biting them,” he said.

As for why only some chimps go through such an elaborate process, “a lot depends on the ecological constraints and needs,” he said.

In terms of other animals, Herrmann and Call mention the dogs Rico and Chaser, who knew the meaning of hundreds of words.

“Interestingly,” the scientists point out, “all of these dogs (considered to be very smart) are border collies. And many of their owners reported that they did not train the dogs to play the fetching game; it was the dogs who trained them!”

The jury is still out on what exactly constitutes such cleverness. The researchers propose that more studies be conducted, with “tasks that capture cognitive, motivational and temperament dimensions.”

That’s because, in part, a willingness to learn and a positive attitude seem to make as big of a difference in dogs, chimps and other animals as they do in humans.

NEWS: Zoo Chimp Makes Elaborate Plots to Attack Humans

NEWS: Chimps Are Self-Aware

NEWS: Chimps Have Better Sex Than Humans

Study Reveals Human Drive for Fair Play (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (Aug. 23, 2012) — People will reject an offer of water, even when they are severely thirsty, if they perceive the offer to be unfair, according to a new study funded by the Wellcome Trust. The findings have important implications for understanding how humans make decisions that must balance fairness and self-interest.

It’s been known for some time that when humans bargain for money they have a tendency to reject unfair offers, preferring to let both parties walk away with nothing rather than accept a low offer in the knowledge that their counterpart is taking home more cash.

In contrast, when bargaining for food, our closes relatives chimpanzees will almost always accept an offer regardless of any subjective idea of ‘fairness’.

Researchers at the Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging at UCL wanted to see whether humans would similarly accept unfair offers if they were bargaining for a basic physiological need, such as food, water or sex.

The team recruited 21 healthy participants and made 11 of them thirsty by drip-feeding them a salty solution, whilst the remainder received an isotonic solution that had a much smaller effect on their level of thirst. To obtain an objective measure of each individual’s need for water, the team measured the salt concentration in their blood. The participants’ subjective perception of how thirsty they were was assessed using a simple rating scale.

The participants then separately took part in an ultimatum game. They were given instructions that two of them had been randomly selected to play a game to decide the split of a 500ml bottle of water that could be consumed immediately. One of them would play the part of ‘Proposer’ and decide how the bottle should be split. The other would be a ‘Responder’ who could either accept the split and so drink the water offered to them, or reject the split so that both parties would get nothing. The participants knew that they would have to wait a full hour after the end of the game before they would have access to water.

In reality, all of the participants played the part of the Responder. They were presented with two glasses of water with a highly unequal offer that they were told was from the Proposer: the glass offered to them contained 62.5ml, an eighth of the original bottle of water, and the other contained the remaining seven eighths that the Proposer wanted to keep for themselves. They had fifteen seconds to decide whether to accept or reject the offer.

The team found that, unlike chimpanzees, the human participants tended to reject the highly unequal offer, and here that was the case even if they were severely thirsty. The participants’ choices were not influenced by how thirsty they actually were, as measured objectively from the blood sample. However, they were more likely to accept the offer if they subjectively felt that they were thirsty.

Dr Nick Wright, who led the study, explains: “Whether or not fairness is a uniquely human motivation has been a source of controversy. These findings show that humans, unlike even our closest relatives chimpanzees, reject an unfair offer of a primary reward like food or water — and will do that even when severely thirsty. However, we also show this fairness motivation is traded-off against self-interest, and that this self-interest is not determined by how their objective need for water but instead by their subjective perception of thirst. These findings are interesting for understanding how subjective feelings of fairness and self-interested need impact on everyday decisions, for example in the labour market.”

Journal Reference:

  1. Nicholas D. Wright, Karen Hodgson, Stephen M. Fleming, Mkael Symmonds, Marc Guitart-Masip, Raymond J. Dolan.Human responses to unfairness with primary rewards and their biological limitsScientific Reports, 2012; 2 DOI: 10.1038/srep00593

A quem serve negar o impacto PCC? (Caros Amigos)

Publicado em Sexta, 24 Agosto 2012 14:26

Por Daniel Hirata, Adalton Marques, Gabriel Feltran e Karina Biondi

“Ao ser citada em um relatório com uma redução que posiciona a cidade abaixo da linha imaginária do índice “epidêmico”, as políticas governamentais de segurança ganham enorme respaldo nacional e internacional”

As taxas de homicídios são atualmente o grande parâmetro de avaliação das políticas de segurança em todo o mundo. Assim como a cotação do dólar e a taxa de juros para a política monetária, as flutuações das taxas de homicídios vêm sendo parâmetro de avaliação da gestão pública: cidades que conseguem reduções expressivas são vistas como modelos de ”boas práticas” a replicar. São Paulo foi incluída recentemente, no relatório de 2011 do Onudoc (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime), como um ‘case’ na redução da taxa de homicídios em comparação com outras cidades latino americanas e brasileiras. Ao ser citada em um relatório desse tipo, sobretudo com uma redução que posiciona a cidade abaixo da linha imaginária do que é considerado um índice “epidêmico”, as políticas governamentais de segurança ganham enorme respaldo nacional e internacional.

Crédito Eleitoral

Sabe-se bem como esse ganho foi capitalizado rapidamente pelo governo paulista durante a última década. Contudo, esse crédito eleitoral e, acima de tudo, político-administrativo, não foi usufruído sem que, bem longe das razões governamentais, se constituísse um lastro que sustenta outra história acerca da redução das taxas de homicídios.

Nossas pesquisas voltaram os olhos precisamente para esta versão, levando a sério aquilo que se insiste em considerar anômico: o que dizem presos e moradores das periferias de São Paulo sobre a violência, a segurança e os homicídios. Nessa mesma direção, desde 2005, temos registrado entre eles relatos da política de “paz” do PCC (Primeiro Comando da Capital) em prisões e “quebradas”, e a importância dos seus “debates” na redução dos homicídios por ali. Sabe-se que, nesses territórios, desde a primeira metade dos anos 2000, “não se pode mais matar” sem o aval do “Comando”.

“A emergência dessa forma de regulação torna complexa a deslegitimação da “segurança pública” nas periferias, onde a repressão é sua única face: seja pela política de encarceramento em massa, pela militarização da gestão pública ou pelos achaques a que seus moradores são constantemente submetidos”

A emergência dessa forma de regulação torna complexa a deslegitimação da “segurança pública” nas periferias, onde a repressão é sua única face: seja pela política de encarceramento em massa, pela militarização da gestão pública ou pelos achaques a que seus moradores são constantemente submetidos. O impacto dessas políticas nas estatísticas é evidente, embora silenciado ativamente e sistematicamente por governos e imprensa e rejeitado por ‘think tanks’ que disputam o tema segurança pública, assim como fora praticamente desconsiderado em nossas universidades há poucos anos.

Fator PCC

Há uma razoável concordância entre os especialistas de que a violência e o homicídio são fenômenos históricos e multidimensionais. Nesse sentido, é claro que o PCC não é a única causa dessa redução. Mas digamos francamente: é um absurdo fingir que o PCC não é central para compreender esse fenômeno. Em São Paulo, há muito mais mistérios por detrás da redução dos homicídios do que supõe nossa vã criminologia. Mas, principalmente, há muito mais evidências ofuscadas sob o holofote das suposições.

Afirmamos, portanto, que os sucessivos governos do PSDB em São Paulo não são os únicos fiadores da redução da taxa de homicídios no Estado, nem mesmo os majoritários. E, ao invés de atribuirmos a fiança majoritária ao PCC, preferimos falar de sua centralidade, da importância inegável de sua política de “paz entre os ladrões” para a queda dos homicídios em São Paulo.

Etnografia

Nossa aferição não é sociométrica; antes, se trata de uma problematização etnográfica. Além do que, sabe-se que os critérios de construção dessas medidas são polêmicos e cheios de controvérsias. No Rio de Janeiro, por exemplo, onde esse tipo de controvérsia emerge de forma mais visível publicamente, uma pesquisa recente do Núcleo de Estudos da Cidadania, Conflito e Violência Urbana (NECVU) sobre os “autos de resistência” problematiza a leitura fácil sobre as taxas de homicídio justamente quando volta a atenção para onde os olhos dos governos insistem em não olhar: a atuação das polícias.

“Ao largo das condecorações fáceis dos responsáveis pela miraculosa queda dos homicídios, preferimos seguir os rastros das “guerras” que continuam a aterrorizar a periferia – ainda que suas manifestações mais espetaculares tenham se tornado cíclicas”

Ao largo das condecorações fáceis dos responsáveis pela miraculosa queda dos homicídios, preferimos seguir os rastros das “guerras” (categoria usada por “ladrões” e por policiais) que continuam a aterrorizar a periferia – ainda que suas manifestações mais espetaculares tenham se tornado cíclicas. É notório em nossas pesquisas que parte das dinâmicas que produzem mortes na cidade estão relacionadas aos jogos de poder entre coletivos criminais e corporações policiais, em suas atividades oficiais e extra oficiais. A atual intensificação do caráter repressivo e militar das políticas de segurança não apenas acentua a “lógica da guerra” no controle oficial do crime, como também aumenta os custos e os conflitos operantes nos mercados extra oficiais de proteção, cujos desfechos letais são muito frequentes no cotidiano dos alvos preferenciais desse controle.

Equilíbrios Instáveis

Neste momento, ao contrário do discurso oficial que insiste em negar a existência do PCC e exibe a polícia de São Paulo como a mais eficaz do Brasil, a cidade presencia diversos assassinatos em todas as regiões da Grande São Paulo. O fato é que tanto a atuação do PCC como a das polícias são feitas a partir de equilíbrios instáveis, construídos pelas suas heterogeneidades internas e pelas relações entre ambos. Quando algo desestabiliza esse encadeamento sensível os acordos se rompem e os ciclos de mortes são detonados sem que nem mesmo seus participantes consigam identificar os autores: guerras estancadas começam a correr subterraneamente, acertos adiados passam a acontecer entre grupos com interesses conflitantes sem declaração aberta, acordos são suspensos secretamente, de modo que sempre é possível culpar o “outro lado” pela morte que não se pode nomear o autor nem as razões.

Enquanto não escancararmos com pesquisa rigorosa a caixa de pandora dessas relações para ao menos dar início ao debate, continuaremos sem qualquer resposta pública, digna, para as dezenas de assassinatos que voltaram a marcar a Grande São Paulo, bem como sem uma explicação satisfatória que correlacione a política de “pacificação” do PCC com os surtos de combate entre Estado e crime.


Daniel Hirata é pesquisador do Núcleo de Estudos da Cidadania, Conflito e Violência Urbana (NECVU) da UFRJ; Adalton Marques é doutorando do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Antropologia Social da UFSCar (PPGAS-UFSCar); Gabriel Feltran é sociólogo, docente da UFSCar e membro do Centro de Estudos da Metrópole (CEM) da universidade e Karina Biondi é doutoranda do PPGAS-UFSCar

 

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Ataques em SP: Pesquisadora vê política de extermínio de pobre

Mães de Maio pede ação de Dilma para conter ataques em SP

Bonobo genius makes stone tools like early humans did (New Scientist)

13:09 21 August 2012 by Hannah Krakauer

Kanzi the bonobo continues to impress. Not content with learning sign language or making up “words” for things like banana or juice, he now seems capable of making stone tools on a par with the efforts of early humans.

Even a human could manage this <i>(Image: Elizabeth Rubert-Pugh (Great Ape Trust of Iowa/Bonobo Hope Sanctuary))</i>

Even a human could manage this (Image: Elizabeth Rubert-Pugh (Great Ape Trust of Iowa/Bonobo Hope Sanctuary))

Eviatar Nevo of the University of Haifa in Israel and his colleagues sealed food inside a log to mimic marrow locked inside long bones, and watched Kanzi, a 30-year-old male bonobo chimp, try to extract it. While a companion bonobo attempted the problem a handful of times, and succeeded only by smashing the log on the ground, Kanzi took a longer and arguably more sophisticated approach.

Both had been taught to knap flint flakes in the 1990s, holding a stone core in one hand and using another as a hammer. Kanzi used the tools he created to come at the log in a variety of ways: inserting sticks into seams in the log, throwing projectiles at it, and employing stone flints as choppers, drills, and scrapers. In the end, he got food out of 24 logs, while his companion managed just two.

Perhaps most remarkable about the tools Kanzi created is their resemblance to early hominid tools. Both bonobos made and used tools to obtain food – either by extracting it from logs or by digging it out of the ground. But only Kanzi’s met the criteria for both tool groups made by early Homo: wedges and choppers, and scrapers and drills.

Do Kanzi’s skills translate to all bonobos? It’s hard to say. The abilities of animals like Alex the parrot, who could purportedly count to six, and Betty the crow, who crafted a hook out of wire, sometimes prompt claims about the intelligence of an entire species. But since these animals are raised in unusual environments where they frequently interact with humans, their cases may be too singular to extrapolate their talents to their brethren.

The findings will fuel the ongoing debate over whether stone tools mark the beginning of modern human culture, or predate our Homo genus. They appear to suggest the latter – though critics will point out that Kanzi and his companion were taught how to make the tools. Whether the behaviour could arise in nature is unclear.

Journal reference: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1212855109