Arquivo da tag: Mudanças climáticas

Extremos climáticos mostram que futuro já chegou (O Globo)

JC e-mail 4890, de 07 de fevereiro de 2014

Editorial publicado em O Globo. Temperaturas máximas recordistas no Brasil, secas e nevascas intensas no Hemisfério Norte atestam que mundo perde tempo precioso para mitigar efeitos do aquecimento

No dia 31 de janeiro, das 10 estações meteorológicas que indicavam as maiores temperaturas do mundo, seis estavam no Rio e outras três no Brasil. A campeã mundial foi Joinville, em Santa Catarina, onde a sensação térmica chegou a 52 graus. O Rio ficou em segundo, com 51. A única fora do Brasil foi El Vigia, na Venezuela. O ranking é do Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTec), com base em informações de 4.232 estações acessadas pelo Inpe. Os que moram no Rio sentem isto na pele, agravado pela longa estiagem – as precipitações em janeiro foram de apenas 58mm, quando a média para o mês na cidade é de 202mm. Na terça-feira, a temperatura bateu novo recorde: 40,8 graus em Santa Cruz, com a sensação térmica de incríveis 57 graus.

Enquanto isso, nos EUA (Hemisfério Norte), nevascas das mais intensas já registradas criam problemas de todo o tipo. Nos últimos dias de janeiro, tempestades de neve atipicamente atingiram o Sul dos EUA, do Texas e Geórgia até as Carolinas, uma área de 60 milhões de habitantes. Sete pessoas morreram e o fechamento de rodovias e avenidas transformou Atlanta num caos. Na terça, 905 voos foram cancelados e 3.100 sofreram atrasos. Já no Alasca, a paisagem da costa muda rapidamente porque os lagos degelam mais cedo. Entre 1991 e 2011, a região perdeu 22% de sua camada de gelo, revelou estudo na revista “Cryosphere”, segundo o qual a causa são as mudanças climáticas.

Estudos americanos indicaram que a temperatura do planeta se manteve em alta em 2013. Segundo a Nasa, a média global foi de 14,6 graus centígrados, empatando com 2006 e 2009 como o sétimo ano mais quente desde 1880, quando as medições começaram. As temperaturas globais começaram a subir no final dos anos 1960, fenômeno associado ao acúmulo de gases estufa na atmosfera. A quantidade de dióxido de carbono é mais alta hoje do que em qualquer momento nos últimos 800 mil anos, adverte a Nasa.

Hoje, a maioria dos cientistas concorda que a ação humana contribui para as mudanças climáticas. Mas os principais líderes mundiais estão devendo muito em chegar a consensos que possibilitem ações essenciais para o futuro da Humanidade. Um grande avanço foi o governo dos EUA anunciar a criação de sete centros climáticos regionais para auxiliar fazendeiros e comunidades a enfrentar secas, inundações, incêndios e pestes. E a Agência de Proteção Ambiental (EPA) baixará normas severas para reduzir as emissões de termelétricas a carvão. Estão no caminho certo. No final de março, haverá nova avaliação do problema, com a divulgação, em Yokohama, no Japão, de novo relatório sobre o impacto das mudanças climáticas, elaborado por especialistas de mais de cem países reunidos no Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC). Pode-se discutir em que proporção a Humanidade contribui para o aquecimento global. Porém, não se deveria mais colocar em dúvida a necessidade da redução das emissões de gases nocivos ao planeta.

(O Globo)
http://oglobo.globo.com/opiniao/extremos-climaticos-mostram-que-futuro-ja-chegou-11527392#ixzz2se99M9Es

Casa Branca anuncia a criação de sete centros climáticos (O Globo)

JC e-mail 4890, de 07 de fevereiro de 2014

Núcleos ajudarão agricultores a evitarem a ocorrência de eventos extremos, como seca, incêndios e enchentes

Na esteira da aprovação no Senado americano de uma nova lei agrícola, conhecida como Farm Bill, a Casa Branca anunciou esta quarta-feira a criação de sete “centros climáticos” para ajudar os agricultores e comunidades rurais a responderem aos riscos de mudanças climáticas, inclusive secas, ocorrência de pestes, incêndios e enchentes.
Os centros climáticos serão nos estados de Iowa, New Hampshire, Carolina do Norte, Oklahoma, Oregon, Colorado e Novo México.

Autoridades do governo americano descreveram a iniciativa como uma das ações executivas que o presidente Barack Obama tomará para atacar as mudanças climáticas sem um movimento do Congresso.

A criação de centros climáticos é considerado um passo limitado, mas é parte de uma campanha mais ampla do Executivo para usar sua autoridade, onde for possível, em políticas ligadas às mudanças do clima.

O governo tenta, também, ganhar apoio político para engajar-se em outros projetos, principalmente na elaboração de uma forte regulamentação que determine cortes de emissões de carbono em usinas do país. A criação do programa está sendo debatida na Agência de Proteção Ambiental.

A criação dos centros climáticos foi anunciada pelo secretário de Agricultura, Tom Villsack. A intenção do governo é que o programa ajude agricultores de cada região a adaptarem-se às mudanças climáticas, antes da elaboração de um projeto mais ambicioso.

– As mudanças climáticas são um desafio novo e complexo enfrentado pelos agricultores, e seus impactos são sentidos nas florestas e nas áreas de cultivo.

(Carol Davenport do New York Times/O Globo)
http://oglobo.globo.com/ciencia/casa-branca-anuncia-criacao-de-sete-centros-climaticos-11526131#ixzz2se5UT4FG

Uma lei para salvar o planeta (O Globo)

JC e-mail 4889, de 06 de fevereiro de 2014

EUA debatem iniciativa histórica, que forçaria o corte nas emissões de gases-estufa por usinas a carvão

Enfrentando maratonas de reuniões, dezenas de advogados, economistas e engenheiros da Agência de Proteção Ambiental dos EUA (EPA, na sigla em inglês) lutam para criar o que pode vir a se tornar uma peça histórica no legado do presidente Barack Obama para o combate às mudanças climáticas. Se os autores forem bem sucedidos na elaboração de uma regulamentação forte e eficaz na determinação de cortes de emissões de carbono em 1.500 usinas a carvão americanas – a maior fonte de gases do efeito estufa do país -, o resultado pode ser a mais significativa ação já tomada pelos EUA no combate às mudanças climáticas. O país é um dos maiores responsáveis pelo aquecimento global.

Se a regulamentação for muito frouxa, o impacto ambiental pode ser mínimo. Mas, se for muito dura, pode levar ao fechamento de usinas antes que haja alternativas energéticas para substituí-las, o que poderia ocasionar blecautes de energia e anos de batalhas legais.

– O fracasso não é uma opção – afirmou o diretor-executivo da Associação Nacional de Limpeza, William Becker.

Em seu pronunciamento “Estado da União”, Obama deixou clara a intenção de usar sua autoridade – garantida pela Lei do Ar Limpo e por uma decisão de 2007 da Suprema Corte – para sancionar as novas regulamentações de redução das emissões de CO2. Ele está pressionando a agência a concluir os debates o mais rápido possível.

O presidente ordenou à EPA que apresente um rascunho da regulamentação já em 1º de junho. A nova lei deve orientar os estados a criar e executar planos para atender às metas nacionais para emissões de gases-estufa. Em princípio, as usinas poderiam não apenas cortar emissões, mas, por exemplo, usar tecnologias mais limpas, investir em fontes renováveis de energia e ainda fazer parte de um mercado de carbono – financiando, por exemplo, projetos em outros países.

Num primeiro momento, a nova lei atingiria as 600 usinas dos EUA que são movidas a carvão e pode, simplesmente, levá-las ao fechamento, dependendo de como a legislação for escrita. Estados em que a maior parte das usinas é movida a carvão estão fazendo um lobby pesado contra determinações mais radicais, alegando que ela pode levar ao colapso do fornecimento de energia.

Em geral, o carvão responde por 40% da energia elétrica produzida nos EUA. Mas em estados como Kentucky, Ohio e Missouri, o percentual vai de 80% a 90%. Por outro lado, se a legislação deixar muita abertura para cada estado decidir por si, corre o risco de não conseguir alcançar meta alguma e se tornar ineficaz.

(Coral Davenport do New York Times/O Globo)
http://oglobo.globo.com/ciencia/uma-lei-para-salvar-planeta-11516781#ixzz2sXw5gcLh

Nature can, selectively, buffer human-caused global warming, say scientists (Science Daily)

Date: February 2, 2014

Source: Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Summary: Can naturally occurring processes selectively buffer the full brunt of global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities? Yes, says a group of researchers in a new study.

As the globe warms, ocean temperatures rise, leading to increased water vapor escaping into the atmosphere. Water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas, and its impact on climate is amplified in the stratosphere. Credit: © magann / Fotolia

Can naturally occurring processes selectively buffer the full brunt of global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities?

Yes, find researchers from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Johns Hopkins University in the US and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.

As the globe warms, ocean temperatures rise, leading to increased water vapor escaping into the atmosphere. Water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas, and its impact on climate is amplified in the stratosphere.

In a detailed study, the researchers from the three institutions examined the causes of changes in the temperatures and water vapor in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). The TTL is a critical region of our atmosphere with characteristics of both the troposphere below and the stratosphere above.

The TTL can have significant influences on both atmospheric chemistry and climate, as its temperature determines how much water vapor can enter the stratosphere. Therefore, understanding any changes in the temperature of the TTL and what might be causing them is an important scientific question of significant societal relevance, say the researchers.

The Israeli and US scientists used measurements from satellite observations and output from chemistry-climate models to understand recent temperature trends in the TTL. Temperature measurements show where significant changes have taken place since 1979.

The satellite observations have shown that warming of the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical Western Pacific Ocean — with resulting increased precipitation and water vapor there — causes the opposite effect of cooling in the TTL region above the warming sea surface. Once the TTL cools, less water vapor is present in the TTL and also above in the stratosphere.

Since water vapor is a very strong greenhouse gas, this effect leads to a negative feedback on climate change. That is, the increase in water vapor due to enhanced evaporation from the warming oceans is confined to the near- surface area, while the stratosphere becomes drier. Hence, this effect may actually slightly weaken the more dire forecasted aspects of an increasing warming of our climate, the scientists say.

The researchers are Dr. Chaim Garfinkel of the Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences at the Hebrew University and formerly of Johns Hopkins University, Dr. D. W. Waugh and Dr. L. Wang of Johns Hopkins, and Dr. L. D. Oman and Dr. M. M. Hurwitz of the Goddard Space Flight Center. Their findings have been published in theJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, and the research was also highlighted in Nature Climate Change.

Journal References:

  1. C. I. Garfinkel, D. W. Waugh, L. D. Oman, L. Wang, M. M. Hurwitz. Temperature trends in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Connections with sea surface temperatures and implications for water vapor and ozoneJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2013; 118 (17): 9658 DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50772
  2. Qiang Fu. Ocean–atmosphere interactions: Bottom up in the tropicsNature Climate Change, 2013; 3 (11): 957 DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2039

Influência humana é clara no aquecimento “inequívoco” do planeta, diz IPCC (Portal Terra)

JC e-mail 4885, de 31 de janeiro de 2014

Os cientistas do IPCC – que já foram premiados com o Nobel da Paz em 2007 – fizeram um apelo enfático para a redução de gases poluentes

Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas divulga primeira parte de estudo sobre aumento da temperatura no globo e afirma que últimas três décadas foram sucessivamente mais quentes que qualquer outra desde 1850.

O aquecimento do planeta é “inequívoco”, a influência humana no aumento da temperatura global é “clara”, e limitar os efeitos das mudanças climáticas vai requerer reduções “substanciais e sustentadas” das emissões de gases de efeito estufa. A conclusão é do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC), que divulgou nesta quinta-feira (30/01), em Genebra, a primeira parte do quinto relatório sobre o tema.

Os cientistas do IPCC – que já foram premiados com o Nobel da Paz em 2007 – fizeram um apelo enfático para a redução de gases poluentes. “A continuidade das emissões vai continuar causando mudanças e aquecimento em todos os componentes do sistema climático”, afirmou Thomas Stocker, coordenador e principal autor da Parte 1 do quinto Relatório sobre Mudanças Climáticas, cuja versão preliminar já foi apresentada em setembro de 2013.

O documento serviu de base durante a Conferência das Partes (COP) das Nações Unidas sobre o Clima em Varsóvia, na Polônia, no final do ano passado. Em 1500 páginas, cientistas de todo o mundo se debruçaram sobre as bases físicas das mudanças climáticas, apoiados em mais de 9 mil publicações científicas.

“O relatório apresenta informações sobre o que muda no clima, os motivos para as mudanças e como ele vai mudar no futuro”, disse Stocker.

Correções
A versão final divulgada nesta quinta é um texto revisado e editado e não tem muitas mudanças em relação ao documento apresentado em setembro do ano passado, que elevou o alerta pelo aquecimento global e destacou a influência da ação humana no processo.

“A influência humana no clima é clara”, afirma o texto. “Ela foi detectada no aquecimento da atmosfera e dos oceanos, nas mudanças nos ciclos globais de precipitação, e nas mudanças de alguns extremos no clima.”

Segundo o IPCC, desde a década de 1950, muitas das mudanças observadas no clima não tiveram precedentes nas décadas de milênios anteriores. “A atmosfera e os oceanos estão mais quentes, o volume de neve e de gelo diminuíram, os níveis dos oceanos subiram e a concentração de gases poluentes aumentou”, diz um resumo do documento.

“Cada uma das últimas três décadas foi sucessivamente mais quente na superfície terrestre que qualquer década desde 1850. No hemisfério norte, o período entre 1983 e 2012 provavelmente foi o intervalo de 30 anos mais quente dos últimos 800 anos”, prossegue.

Aquecimento dos oceanos
O grupo de cientistas também lembra que o aquecimento dos oceanos domina o aumento de energia acumulada no sistema climático, e que os mares são responsáveis por mais de 90% da energia acumulada entre 1971 e 2010.

“É praticamente certo que o oceano superior (até 700m de profundidade) aqueceu neste período, enquanto é apenas provável que tenha acontecido o mesmo entre 1870 e 1970”, diz o relatório.

O nível dos mares também aumentou mais desde meados do século 20 que durante os dois milênios anteriores, segundo estima o IPCC. Entre 1901 e 2010, o nível médio dos oceanos teria aumentado cerca de 20 centímetros, diz o documento.

As concentrações atmosféricas de dióxido de carbono, metano e protóxido de nitrogênio (conhecido como gás hilariante) aumentaram, principalmente por causa da ação humana. Tais aumentos se devem especialmente às emissões oriundas de combustíveis fósseis. Os oceanos, por exemplo, sofrem acidificação por absorver uma parte do CO2 emitido.

Futuro sombrio
A temperatura global deverá ultrapassar 1,5ºC até o final deste século em comparação com níveis estimados entre 1850 e 1900. O aquecimento global também deverá continuar além de 2100, mas não será uniforme, dizem os cientistas do clima. As mudanças nos ciclos da água no mundo também não serão homogêneos neste século, e o contraste entre regiões secas e úmidas e regiões de seca e de chuvas deverá aumentar.

O resumo do texto ainda constata que a acumulação de emissões de CO2 deverá ser determinante para o aquecimento global no final do século 21 e adiante. “A maioria dos efeitos das mudanças climáticas deverão perdurar por vários séculos, mesmo com o fim das emissões.”

Até outubro, o IPCC ainda vai publicar mais duas partes do relatório e também um documento final. A segunda parte será divulgada em março, no Japão, e detalhará os impactos, a adaptação e a vulnerabilidade a mudanças climáticas. Em abril, Berlim será palco das conclusões do IPCC sobre mitigação.

(Portal Terra)

Países desenvolvidos exportam emissões de carbono (Folha de São Paulo)

JC e-mail 4882, de 28 de janeiro de 2014

Matéria do “The New York Times” sobre efeitos climáticos publicada na Folha de São Paulo

Durante sua vida útil, o iPhone 5S emite o equivalente a 70 kg de dióxido de carbono. A boa notícia: isso é 4 kg a menos do que o iPhone 5.

Seja como for, cerca de três quartos desse dióxido de carbono são considerados de responsabilidade não dos Estados Unidos, mas de lugares como China, Taiwan, Coreia do Sul e Mongólia Interior (região autônoma da China), onde o telefone e seus componentes são fabricados.

A globalização -a qual, no processo de “exportar” produção e emprego dos países ricos para os pobres, “exportou” também o dióxido de carbono emitido para a fabricação dos produtos- adiciona um novo aspecto à alocação das responsabilidades pela emissão de carbono na atmosfera: será que essas emissões devem ser de responsabilidade dos países fabricantes ou dos países para os quais os produtos se destinam?

Dois anos atrás, algumas das localidades mais ambientalmente corretas dos EUA solicitaram à seção americana do Instituto Ambiental de Estocolmo que calculasse suas emissões de carbono. Em vez de contabilizar o carbono que produziam, elas queriam um inventário das emissões geradas na fabricação, no transporte, na utilização e na eliminação do que é consumido nesses lugares.

O resultado surpreendeu. San Francisco, por exemplo, gerou em 2008 apenas 8 milhões de toneladas de CO2 ou equivalente. O consumo da cidade, por outro lado, acrescentou quase 22 milhões de toneladas de carbono à atmosfera. Usando medições baseadas no consumo, as emissões do Oregon saltaram em 2005 de 53 milhões para 78 milhões de toneladas. “As pessoas que nos contrataram se viam como muito ‘verdes’ e inovadoras”, disse Frank Ackerman, que na época chefiava o Grupo de Economia Climática da entidade nos EUA. “Eles achavam que, por terem boas iniciativas em andamento, teriam um resultado menor, apesar de muitos dos produtos industriais por eles consumidos serem fabricados no exterior.”

O foco no consumo faz sentido. Compreender o seu impacto sobre a mudança climática é um primeiro passo necessário para que as pessoas e as cidades, grandes ou pequenas, tomem medidas concretas para reduzir as emissões de carbono. Este novo tipo de cálculo, no entanto, pode ter um efeito imprevisto sobre a política internacional de mudança climática, deslocando a responsabilidade em escala global.

Enquanto a concentração de CO2 disparou no primeiro semestre de 2013 para o seu maior nível desde que os mastodontes vagavam pela Terra, há 3 milhões de anos, as Nações Unidas, contrariando todas as probabilidades, esperam que 2014 finalmente traga os avanços necessários para que as grandes nações cuspidoras de carbono cheguem a um acordo sobre um plano climático até 2015.

“Desafio os senhores a trazer promessas ousadas para a cúpula”, disse o secretário-geral da ONU, Ban Ki-moon, ao convidar líderes mundiais para uma reunião em setembro próximo, em Nova York.

Um estudo publicado há dois anos na revista “PNAS”, da Academia Nacional de Ciências dos EUA, observou que, entre 1990 e 2008, a globalização exportou o equivalente a 1,2 bilhão de toneladas de emissões de carbono por ano do mundo desenvolvido para nações em desenvolvimento.

Cálculos com critérios estritamente geográficos dão a impressão de que os países industriais avançados conseguiram estabilizar suas emissões de carbono.

Mas eles apenas transferiram o aumento para fora das suas fronteiras. As emissões de carbono criadas pelo consumo dos americanos são cerca de 8% superiores às emissões produzidas nos EUA, de acordo com os cientistas do Projeto Global do Carbono. Por outro lado, cerca de um quinto das emissões da China são de produtos consumidos fora de suas fronteiras.

A União Europeia, satisfeita com seus resultados ambientais nos cálculos habituais, com base no lugar onde o carbono é emitido, parece menos virtuosa sob uma lente baseada no consumo. Em 2011, os europeus emitiram apenas 3,6 bilhões de toneladas de CO2, mas 4,8 bilhões de toneladas foram jogados na atmosfera para a produção das coisas que os europeus consumiram.

Aqui está o dilema. A abordagem habitual, a qual está sendo considerada para contabilizar o custo do carbono “comercializado”, consistiria em taxar as emissões registradas nas fronteiras. Não surpreende que países exportadores, como a China, não gostem dessa abordagem.

Um estudo recente corroborou a imposição de um imposto de carbono sobre as importações. Mas “a China tem tudo a perder”, disse GlenPeters, do Centro para o Clima Internacional e a Pesquisa Ambiental, em Oslo. “Se a China trouxesse isso para as negociações, estaria permitindo que os EUA e Europa regulamentassem as exportações chinesas.”

Outra pesquisa concluiu que a imposição de uma penalidade na fronteira incentivaria a China e outros países em desenvolvimento a tributarem suas próprias emissões de carbono -ficando com o dinheiro- em vez de deixar que outros as tributem. Mas, se o mundo quiser evitar uma mudança climática catastrófica, alguém -em algum lugar- deve arcar com o custo de consumir menos carbono. E ninguém está se voluntariando.

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/newyorktimes/149511-paises-desenvolvidos-exportam-emissoes-de-carbono.shtml

 

Up the Financier: Studying the California Carbon Market (AAA, Anthropology and Environment Society Blog)

Posted on January 26, 2014

ENGAGEMENT co-editor Chris Hebdon catches up with University of Kentucky geographer Patrick Bigger.

Patrick Bigger at the Chicago Board of Trade

Patrick Bigger at the Chicago Board of Trade

How would you explain your dissertation research on the California carbon market?

At the broadest level, my research is about understanding how a brand new commodity market tied to environmental improvement is brought into the world, and then how it functions once it is in existence. Taking as a starting point Polanyi’s (1944) observation that markets are inherently social institutions, my work sorts though the social, geographical, and ideological relationships that are being mobilized in California and brought from across the world to build the world’s second largest carbon market. And those constitutive processes and practices are no small undertaking.

Making a multi-billion dollar market from scratch is a process that entails the recruitment and hiring of a small army of bureaucrats and lawyers, the creation of new trading and technology firms, the involvement of offset developers and exchange operators who had been active in other environmental commodities markets, and learning from more than fifty years of environmental economics and the intellectual work of think tanks and NGOs. There are literally tens of thousands of hours of people’s time embodied in the rule-making process, which result in texts (in the form of regulatory documents) that profoundly influence how California’s economy is performed every day. These performances range from rice farmers considering how much acreage to sow in the Sacramento Delta to former Enron power traders building new trading strategies based on intertemporal price differences of carbon futures for different compliance periods in California’s carbon market.

My work uses ethnographic methods such as participant-observation in public rule-making workshops and semi-structured interviews with regulators, industry groups, polluters, NGOs, and academics to try to recreate the key socio-geographical relationships that have had the most impact on market design and function. It’s about how regulatory and financial performances are intertwined, as events in the market (and in other financial markets, most notably the deregulated electric power market in California) are brought back to bear on rule-making, and then how rule-making impacts how the market and the associated regulated industrial processes are enacted. And the key thing is that there isn’t some isolated cabal of carbon’s ‘masters of the universe’ pulling the strings––it’s bureaucrats in cubicles, academics writing books, and offset developers planting trees out there making a market. And they’re people you can go observe and talk with.


Who are buying and selling these carbon credits?

That’s a trickier question than it seems. Most of the credits (aka allowances) are effectively created out of thin air by the California Air Resources board which then distributes them via either free allocation or by auction to anyone who requests authorization to bid. A significant proportion of those are given away directly to regulated industries to ease their transition to paying for their carbon output. Another way the auction works is that electric utilities are given almost all the credits they need to fulfill their obligation, but they are required to sell (consign) those permits in the auction, while they are typically also buyers. This is to prevent windfall profits, like what happened in the EU, for the electric utilities. The utilities must return the value of what they make selling their permits at auction to ratepayers, which they have done to the tune of $1.5 billion so far.

More to the spirit of the question though, it’s a pretty big world. Literally anyone can buy California Carbon on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), based in Chicago. From what I’ve been told, a lot of allowances pass through Houston because there is a major agglomeration of energy traders there, and carbon is often bundled into transactions like power purchase agreements that are traded over-the-counter (OTC). There’s an interesting division in who buys their credits where––companies that must comply with climate regulations tend to buy through the auction, while people trading for presumably speculative purposes tend to buy on the exchange. This isn’t even getting into who produces, sells, and buys carbon offsets, which is another market entirely unto itself. To attempt to be succinct, I’d say there is a ‘carbon industry’ in the same sense that Leigh Johnson (2010) talks about a ‘risk industry’; a constellation of brokers, lawyers, traders, insurers, and industrial concerns, and the size of these institutional actors range from highly specialized carbon traders to the commodities desk at transnational investment banks.


Would you be able to outline some ways your research could affect public policy? And how is it in dialogue with environmental justice literature and engaged scholarship?

There are a number of ways that my work could be taken up by policy makers, though to be clear I did not set out to write a dissertation that would become a how-to-build-a-carbon-market manual. Just being around regulators and market interlocutors has provided insights into the most challenging aspects to market creation and maintenance, like what sorts of expertise a bureaucracy needs, how regulators can encourage public participation in seemingly esoteric matters, or the order which regulator decisions need to be made. Beyond the nuts-and-bolts, there’s a fairly substantial literature on ‘fast policy transfer’ in geography that critiques the ways certain kinds of policy become wildly popular and are then plopped down anywhere regardless of geographical and political-economic context; I am interested in contributing to that literature because California’s carbon market was specifically designed to ‘travel’ through linkages with other sub-national carbon markets. I would also note that there are aspects of what I’m thinking about that problematize the entire concept of the marketization of nature in ways that would also be applicable to the broader ecosystem service literature and the NGOs and regulators who are trying to push back against that paradigm.

As far as the EJ literature is concerned, I’ll admit to having a somewhat fraught relationship. I set out to do a project on the economic geography of environmental finance, not to explicitly document the kinds injustices that environmental finance has, or has the potential, to produce. As a result some critics have accused me of being insufficiently justice-y. I’d respond by noting that my work is normative, even if it isn’t framed in the language of environmental justice; it certainly isn’t Kuhnian normal science. But EJ arguments, if they are any good, do depend on empirical grounding and I would hope that my work provides that.

At the Chicago Board of Trade.

“I’d be really happy if scholars of other markets could find parallels to my work that demonstrated that all markets, not just environmental ones, were as much about the state as they are about finance.”

Your advisor Morgan Robertson has written about “oppositional research,” and research “behind enemy lines,” drawing on his experience working inside the Environmental Protection Agency. What has oppositional research meant for you?

I think about it as using ethnographic methods to poke and prod at the logics and practices that go into building a carbon market. I think for Morgan it was more about the specific problems and opportunities of being fully embedded in an institution whose policies you want to challenge. That position of being fully ‘inside’ isn’t where I’m at right now, and it’s a difficult position to get into either because you just don’t have access, because the researcher doesn’t want to or isn’t comfortable becoming a full-fledged insider, or because academics often just don’t have time to do that sort research. It’s also contingent on what sort of conversational ethnographic tact you want to take––when you’re fully embedded you lose the option of performing the research space as a neophyte, which can be a very productive strategy. One thing that I will mention is that oppositional research is based on trust. You must have established some rapport with your research participants before you challenge them head-on, or they may just walk away and then you’ve done nothing to challenge their practices or world view, you’ve potentially sewn ill will with future research participants, and you won’t get any of the interesting information that you might have otherwise.


How about the method of “studying up”?

For starters, the logistics of ‘studying up’ (Nader 1969) are substantially different than other kinds of fieldwork. There’s lots of downtime (unless you’re in a situation where you’ve got 100% access to whatever you’re studying, e.g.  having a job as a banker or regulator) because there aren’t hearings or rule-making workshops everyday, or even every week, and the people making the market are busy white-collar people with schedules. I feel like I’ve had a really productive week if I can get 3 interviews done.

Beyond the logistics, one of the most challenging parts of studying a regulatory or financial process you’re not fully onboard with is walking the line between asking tough questions of your research participants and yet not alienating them. It has been easy for me to go in the other direction as well––even though I think carbon markets are deeply problematic and emblematic of really pernicious global trends toward the marketization of everything, I really like most of my research participants. They’re giving me their time, they tell me fascinating stories, and they’ve really bent over backward to help me connect with other people or institutions it never would have occurred to me to investigate. And that can make it tough to want to challenge them during interviews. After a while, it’s also possible to start feeling you’re on the inside of the process, at least as far as sharing a language and being part of a very small community. There aren’t many people in the world that I can have a coffee with and make jokes about one company’s consistently bizarre font choices in public comments documents. So even though the market feels almost overwhelmingly big in one sense, it’s also very intimate in another. I’m still working out how to write a trenchant political-economic critique with a much more sympathetic account of regulatory/market performance. Even many guys in the oil-refining sector are deeply concerned about climate change.


Would you ever take a job in a carbon trading firm?

Absolutely. There’s a rich literature developing that gets into the nuts and bolts of many aspects of finance, including carbon trading in the social studies of finance/cultural economics that overlaps with scholarship in critical accounting and even work coming out of some business schools. Some of those folks, like Ekaterina Svetlova (see especially 2012), have worked or done extended participant observation in the financial institutions that are being unpacked in broader literatures around performative economics and have provided useful critiques or correctives that is helping this literature to mature.

However, much of this work is subject to the same pitfalls as other work in the social studies of finance, especially the sense that scholars ‘fall in love’ with the complexity of their research topic and the ingenuity of their research participants qua coworkers and ultimately fail to link them back to meaningful critiques of the broader world. All that said, I’m not sure I’ve got the chops to work in finance. I’d be more interested in, and comfortable with, working in the environmental and economic governance realm where I could see, on a daily basis, how the logics of traders meet the logics of regulation and science.


What advice would you give to scholars who may do research on carbon markets in the future?

Get familiar with the language and logics of neoclassical economics. Really familiar. Take some classes. If you’re studying neoliberal environmental policy, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that regulation is shot through with the logics of market triumphalism at a level that just reading David Harvey (2003, 2005) probably wouldn’t prepare you for. A little engineering, or at least familiarity with engineers, wouldn’t be amiss either.

On a really pragmatic level, if you can get access, get familiar with being in an office setting if you haven’t spent much time in one. Being in a new kind of space can be really stressful and if you’re not comfortable in your surroundings you might not be getting the most out of your interviews.

If you’re studying a carbon market specifically, take the time to understand how the electricity grid works. I lost a lot of time sitting through workshops that were well over my head dealing with how the electric power industry would count its carbon emissions. I would have gotten much more out of them if I’d had even a cursory understanding of how the electricity gets from the out-of-state coal-fired power plant to my toaster.

Don’t expect to just pop in-and-out of fieldwork. Make yourself at home. Take some time to figure out what the points of tension are. That’s not to say you must do an ‘E’thnography, but taking the time at the beginning to understand the playing field will make it easier to understand the maneuvering later.

Read the specialist and general press every single day. Set up some news aggregator service to whatever market or regulation you’re looking at. It’s what your participants will be reading, and if they aren’t then you’ll really look like you know what you’re doing.


What are broad implications of your research?

I think starting to come to grips on the creation, from nothing, of a commodity market worth more than a billion dollars could have all sorts of impacts I can’t even imagine. I’d be really happy if scholars of other markets could find parallels to my work that demonstrated that all markets, not just environmental ones, were as much about the state as they are about finance, and not just in the way that Polanyi wrote about them. I’d also like to help people think through the relationship between the economic structures that people build, and then how they inhabit them through economic ideology, the performance of that ideology and their modern representation, the economic model. In some ways this is reopening the structure-agency debates that have been simmering for a long time. I also want to provide more grist for the mill in terms of unpacking variegated neoliberalisms––there are quite a few examples I’ve run across in my work where discourses about the efficiencies of markets run up against either therealpolitik of institutional inertia or perceived risks to the broader economy (which can be read as social reproduction).

In terms of policy, I hope that regulatory readers of my work will think about the relative return on investment (if I can appropriate a financial concept) in deploying market-based environmental policy as opposed to direct regulation, particularly around climate change. We’re in a situation that demands urgency to curb the worst impacts of carbon pollution, so it is of the utmost importance that the state take dramatic action, and soon. That said, wouldn’t it be interesting if this carbon market ended up accomplishing its goals? If it does, then I hope my work would take on different kinds of significance.

* * *

Harvey, David. 2003. The New Imperialism. New York: Oxford University Press.

Harvey, David. 2005. A Brief History of Neoliberalism. New York: Oxford University Press.

Johnson, Leigh. 2010. Climate Change and the Risk Industry: The Multiplication of Fear and Value. Richard Peet, Paul Robbins and Michael Watts, eds. Global Political Ecology. London: Routledge.

Nader, Laura. 1969. Up the Anthropologist: Perspectives Gained from Studying Up. Dell Hymes, ed. Reinventing Anthropology. New York: Random House.

Polanyi, Karl. 1944. The Great Transformation. Boston: Beacon.

Svetlova, Ekaterina. 2012. On the Performative Power of Financial Models. Economy and Society 41(3): 418-434.

IPCC: próximos 15 anos serão vitais para frear aquecimento global (CarbonoBrasil)

20/1/2014 – 12h54

por Jéssica Lipinski , do CarbonoBrasil

secawiki 300x204 IPCC: próximos 15 anos serão vitais para frear aquecimento global

Foto: Wikimedia commons

Rascunho do novo relatório da entidade afirma que evitar as piores consequências das mudanças climáticas custará até 4% da produção econômica mundial, valor que aumentará se demorarmos para agir.

Diversos veículos da imprensa internacional divulgaram nos últimos dias dados do próximo relatório do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC), que será publicado oficialmente apenas em abril.

De acordo com essas informações, o que o IPCC destaca é que a menos que o mundo aja agora para frear as emissões de gases do efeito estufa (GEEs), os efeitos negativos do aquecimento global representarão enormes desafios para a humanidade ainda neste século, tornando-se cada vez mais caros e difíceis de serem resolvidos.

Segundo o documento, manter o aquecimento global dentro de limites considerados toleráveis, algo perto de dois graus Celsius, vai exigir investimentos bilionários, grandes reduções nas emissões de GEEs e soluções tecnológicas caras e complexas para retirar tais gases da atmosfera.

Tudo isso deve ser feito nos próximos 15 anos, caso contrário será ainda mais difícil lidar com a questão. “Adiar a mitigação até 2030 aumentará os desafios… e reduzirá as opções”, alerta o sumário do relatório.

O estudo aponta que uma das principais razões para o aumento das emissões é o crescimento econômico baseado na queima de fontes de energia fóssil, como o carvão e o petróleo, atividade que estima-se que deve crescer nas próximas décadas.

Por isso, a pesquisa indica que as emissões de dióxido de carbono devem ser reduzidas de 40% a 70% até 2050 para que a meta de dois graus Celsius de aquecimento estipulada pela ONU seja atendida.

Isso significa que os governos terão que apoiar e utilizar uma série de tecnologias para retirar o CO2 da atmosfera, como a captura e armazenamento de carbono (CCS) e o plantio de mais florestas.

O relatório também sugere que, para limitar o aquecimento global de forma significativa, serão necessários investimentos da ordem de US$ 147 bilhões por ano até 2029 em fontes de energia alternativa, como eólica, solar e nuclear.

Ao mesmo tempo, investimentos em energias fósseis teriam que cair em US$ 30 bilhões por ano, enquanto bilhões de dólares anuais teriam que ser gastos na melhoria da eficiência energética em setores importantes como transporte, construção e indústria.

O documento, contudo, afirma que o caminho para mitigar as mudanças climáticas não será nada fácil, visto que vai em direção contrária do que está acontecendo atualmente. De acordo com o estudo, as emissões globais subiram, em média, 2,2% ao ano entre 2000 e 2010, quase o dobro em relação ao ritmo do período de 1970 a 2000, que era de 1,3% ao ano.

“A crise econômica global em 2007-2008 reduziu as emissões temporariamente, mas não mudou a tendência”, diz o relatório.

Além disso, o combate ao aquecimento global custaria 4% da produção econômica mundial, e exigiria uma diminuição gradativa no consumo de bens e serviços: entre 1% e 4% até 2030, entre 2% e 6% até 2050 e entre 2% e 12% até 2100.

“Sem esforços explícitos para reduzir as emissões de gases do efeito estufa, os fatores fundamentais do crescimento das emissões devem persistir”, afirma o estudo.

Outro problema que a pesquisa aponta é que as emissões de países desenvolvidos estão sendo transferidas para nações emergentes, ou seja, a suposta redução de emissões de alguns países ricos é na verdade menor do que se imagina.

Desde 2000, as emissões de carbono para China e outras economias emergentes mais do que dobrou para quase 14 gigatoneladas por ano, mas destas, cerca de duas gigatoneladas foram da produção de bens para a exportação.

“Uma parcela crescente das emissões de CO2 da queima de combustíveis fósseis em países em desenvolvimento é liberada da produção de bens e serviços exportados, principalmente de países de renda média-alta para países de renda alta”, colocou o documento.

Esse estudo é o terceiro documento da quinta avaliação do IPCC sobre o que se sabe sobre as causas, efeitos e futuro das mudanças climáticas.

Em setembro de 2013, o painel divulgou a primeira parte da avaliação, que confirma com 95% de certeza a influência humana sobre o aquecimento global.

O segundo relatório, sobre os impactos das mudanças climáticas, será concluído e divulgado em março, no Japão. Este terceiro será finalizado e divulgado em abril, na Alemanha. Um documento final, sintetizando as três partes, deve ser lançado em outubro deste ano.

Os cientistas do painel concordaram em comentar o estudo assim que ele estiver finalizado. “É um trabalho em progresso, e estamos ansiosos para discuti-lo quando ele for finalizado, em abril”, observou Jonathan Lynn, porta-voz do IPCC, em uma entrevista por telefone à Bloomberg.

* Publicado originalmente no site CarbonoBrasil.

Get Used to Heat Waves: Extreme El Nino Events to Double (Science Daily)

Jan. 19, 2014 — Extreme weather events fueled by unusually strong El Ninos, such as the 1983 heatwave that led to the Ash Wednesday bushfires in Australia, are likely to double in number as our planet warms.

Bush fires (stock photo). The latest research based on rainfall patterns, suggests that extreme El Niño events are likely to double in frequency as the world warms leading to direct impacts on extreme weather events worldwide. (Credit: © Dusan Kostic / Fotolia)

An international team of scientists from organizations including the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (CoECSS), the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and CSIRO, published their findings in the journal Nature Climate Change.

“We currently experience an unusually strong El Niño event every 20 years. Our research shows this will double to one event every 10 years,” said co-author, Dr Agus Santoso of CoECSS.

“El Nino events are a multi-dimensional problem, and only now are we starting to understand better how they respond to global warming,” said Dr Santoso. Extreme El Niño events develop differently from standard El Ninos, which first appear in the western Pacific. Extreme El Nino’s occur when sea surface temperatures exceeding 28°C develop in the normally cold and dry eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This different location for the origin of the temperature

increase causes massive changes in global rainfall patterns.

“The question of how global warming will change the frequency of extreme El Niño events has challenged scientists for more than 20 years,” said co-author Dr Mike McPhaden of US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

“This research is the first comprehensive examination of the issue to produce robust and convincing results,” said Dr McPhaden.

The impacts of extreme El Niño events extend to every continent across the globe.

The 1997-98 event alone caused $35-45 US billion in damage and claimed an estimated 23,000 human lives worldwide.

“During an extreme El Niño event countries in the western Pacific, such as Australia and Indonesia, experienced devastating droughts and wild fires, while catastrophic floods occurred in the eastern equatorial region of Ecuador and northern Peru,” said lead author, CSIRO’s Dr Wenju Cai

In Australia, the drought and dry conditions induced by the 1982-83 extreme El Niño preconditioned the Ash Wednesday Bushfire in southeast Australia, leading to 75 fatalities.

To achieve their results, the team examined 20 climate models that consistently simulate major rainfall reorganization during extreme El Niño events. They found a substantial increase in events from the present-day through the next 100 years as the eastern Pacific Ocean warmed in response to global warming.

“This latest research based on rainfall patterns, suggests that extreme El Niño events are likely to double in frequency as the world warms leading to direct impacts on extreme weather events worldwide.”

“For Australia, this could mean summer heat waves, like that recently experienced in the south-east of the country, could get an additional boost if they coincide with extreme El Ninos,” said co-author, Professor Matthew England from CoECSS.

Journal Reference:

  1. Wenju Cai, Simon Borlace, Matthieu Lengaigne, Peter van Rensch, Mat Collins, Gabriel Vecchi, Axel Timmermann, Agus Santoso, Michael J. McPhaden, Lixin Wu, Matthew H. England, Guojian Wang, Eric Guilyardi, Fei-Fei Jin.Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warmingNature Climate Change, 2014; DOI:10.1038/nclimate2100

Climate Change Research Is Globally Skewed (Science Daily)

Jan. 22, 2014 — The supply of climate change knowledge is biased towards richer countries — those that pollute the most and are least vulnerable to climate change — and skewed away from the poorer, fragile and more vulnerable regions of the world. That creates a global imbalance between the countries in need of knowledge and those that build it. This could have implications for the quality of the political decisions countries and regions make to prevent and adapt to climate change, warn the researchers behind the study from the University of Copenhagen.

Climate change research, shown here by number of publications, primarily concerns countries that are less vulnerable to climate change and have a higher emission of CO2. The countries are also politically stable, less corrupt, and have a higher investment in education and research. (Credit: Image courtesy of University of Copenhagen)

“80 % of all the climate articles we examined were published by researchers from developed countries, although these countries only account for 18 % of the world’s population. That is of concern because the need for climate research is vital in developing countries. It could have political and societal consequences if there are regional shortages of climate scientists and research to support and provide contextually relevant advice for policy makers in developing countries,” says Professor Niels Strange from the Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, University of Copenhagen, which is supported by the Danish National Research Foundation.

Climate change research, shown here by number of publications, primarily concerns countries that are less vulnerable to climate change and have a higher emission of CO2. The countries are also politically stable, less corrupt, and have a higher investment in education and research.

Together with PhD student Maya Pasgaard from the Department of Food and Resource Economics at the University of Copenhagen, Niels Strange analysed over 15,000 scientific papers on climate research from 197 countries. The analysis clearly shows that the research is biased towards countries that are wealthier, better educated, more stable and less corrupt, emit the most carbon, and are less vulnerable to climate change.

As an example, the study shows that almost 30 % of the total number of publications concerns the United States of America, Canada and China, while India is the only highly vulnerable country in the top 10 list. However, Greenland and small island states like the Seychelles and the Maldives that are generally considered vulnerable, also find their way into the top 10 list if it is calculated per capita.

The content of climate studies is also skewed

The study shows that not only the authorship, but also the choice of topic in climate research, is geographically skewed:

Articles from Europe and North America are more often biased towards issues of climate change mitigation, such as emission reductions, compared with articles from the southern hemisphere. In contrast, climate research from Africa and South and Latin America deals more with issues of climate change adaptation and impacts such as droughts and diseases compared to Europe.

“The tendency is a geographical bias where climate knowledge is produced mainly in the northern hemisphere, while the most vulnerable countries are found in the southern hemisphere. The challenge for the scientific community is to improve cooperation and knowledge sharing across geographical and cultural barriers, but also between practitioners and academics. Ultimately, it will require financial support and political will, if we as a society are to address this imbalance in the fight against climate change,” says Maya Pasgaard. The study was recently published online in the journal Global Environmental Change.

Journal Reference:

  1. M. Pasgaard, N. Strange. A quantitative analysis of the causes of the global climate change research distributionGlobal Environmental Change, 2013; 23 (6): 1684 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.08.013

An insider’s story of the global attack on climate science (The Conversation)

23 January 2014, 6.40am AEST

Stormy weather hits New Zealand’s capital, Wellington. Flickr.com/wiifm69 (Sean Hamlin)

A recent headline – Failed doubters trust leaves taxpayers six-figure loss – marked the end of a four-year epic saga of secretly-funded climate denial, harassment of scientists and tying-up of valuable government resources in New Zealand.It’s likely to be a familiar story to my scientist colleagues in Australia, the UK, USA and elsewhere around the world.But if you’re not a scientist, and are genuinely trying to work out who to believe when it comes to climate change, then it’s a story you need to hear too. Because while the New Zealand fight over climate data appears finally to be over, it’s part of a much larger, ongoing war against evidence-based science.

From number crunching to controversy

In 1981 as part of my PhD work, I produced a seven-station New Zealand temperature series, known as 7SS, to monitor historic temperature trends and variations from Auckland to as far south as Dunedin in southern New Zealand.A decade later, in 1991-92 while at the NZ Meteorological Service, I revised the 7SS using a new homogenisation approach to make New Zealand’s temperature records more accurate, such as adjusting for when temperature gauges were moved to new sites.

The Kelburn Cable Car trundles up into the hills of Wellington. Shutterstock/amorfati.art

For example, in 1928 Wellington’s temperature gauge was relocated from an inner suburb near sea level up into the hills at Kelburn, where – due to its higher, cooler location – it recorded much cooler temperatures for the city than before.With statistical analysis, we could work out how much Wellington’s temperature has really gone up or down since the city’s temperature records began back in 1862, and how much of that change was simply due to the gauge being moved uphill. (You can read more about re-examining NZ temperatures here.) So far, so uncontroversial.But then in 2008, while working for a NZ government-owned research organisation, theNational Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), we updated the 7SS. And we found that at those seven stations across the country, from Auckland down to Dunedin, between 1909 and 2008 there was a warming trend of 0.91°C.Soon after that, things started to get heated.The New Zealand Climate Science Coalition, linked to a global climate change denial group, the International Climate Science Coalition, began to question the adjustments I had made to the 7SS.And rather than ever contacting me to ask for an explanation of the science, as I’ve tried to briefly cover above, the Coalition appeared determined to find a conspiracy.

“Shonky” claims

The attack on the science was led by then MP for the free market ACT New Zealand party, Rodney Hide, who claimed in the NZ Parliament in February 2010 that:

NIWA’s raw data for their official temperature graph shows no warming. But NIWA shifted the bulk of the temperature record pre-1950 downwards and the bulk of the data post-1950 upwards to produce a sharply rising trend… NIWA’s entire argument for warming was a result of adjustments to data which can’t be justified or checked. It’s shonky.

Mr Hide’s attack continued for 18 months, with more than 80 parliamentary questions being put to NIWA between February 2010 and July 2011, all of which required NIWA input for the answers.The science minister asked NIWA to re-examine the temperature records, which required several months of science time. In December 2010, the results were in. After the methodology was reviewed and endorsed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, it was found that at the seven stations from Auckland to Dunedin, between 1909 and 2008 there was a warming trend of 0.91°C.That is, the same result as before.But in the meantime, before NIWA even had had time to produce that report, a new line of attack had been launched.

Off to court

In July 2010, a statement of claim against NIWA was filed in the High Court of New Zealand, under the guise of a new charitable trust: the New Zealand Climate Science Education Trust (NZCSET). Its trustees were all members of the NZ Climate Science Coalition.The NZCSET challenged the decision of NIWA to publish the adjusted 7SS, claiming that the “unscientific” methods used created an unrealistic indication of climate warming.The Trust ignored the evidence in the Meteorological Service report I first authored, which stated a particular adjustment methodology had been used. The Trust incorrectly claimed this methodology should have been used but wasn’t.In July 2011 the Trust produced a document that attempted to reproduce the Meteorological Service adjustments, but failed to, instead making lots of errors.On September 7 2012, High Court Justice Geoffrey Venning delivered a 49-page ruling, finding that the NZCSET had not succeeded in any of its challenges against NIWA.

The NZ weather wars in the news. The New Zealand Herald

The judge was particularly critical about retired journalist and NZCSET Trustee Terry Dunleavy’s lack of scientific expertise.Justice Venning described some of the Trust’s evidence as tediously lengthy and said “it is particularly unsuited to a satisfactory resolution of a difference of opinion on scientific matters”.

Taxpayers left to foot the bill

After an appeal that was withdrawn at the last minute, late last year the NZCSET was ordered to pay NIWA NZ$89,000 in costs from the original case, plus further costs from the appeal.But just this month, we have learned that the people behind the NZCSET have sent it into liquidation as they cannot afford the fees, leaving the New Zealand taxpayer at a substantial, six-figure loss.Commenting on the lost time and money involved with the case, NIWA’s chief executive John Morgan has said that:

On the surface it looks like the trust was purely for the purpose of taking action, which is not what one would consider the normal use of a charitable trust.

This has been an insidious saga. The Trust aggressively attacked the scientists, instead of engaging with them to understand the technical issues; they ignored evidence that didn’t suit their case; and they regularly misrepresented NIWA statements by taking them out of context.Yet their attack has now been repeatedly rejected in Parliament, by scientists, and by the courts.The end result of the antics by a few individuals and this Trust is probably going to be a six-figure bill for New Zealanders to pay.My former colleagues have had valuable weeks tied up with wasted time in defending these manufactured allegations. That’s time that could have profitably been used investigating further what is happening with our climate.But there is a bigger picture here too.

Merchants of doubt

Doubt-mongering is an old strategy. It is a strategy that has been pursued before to combat the ideas that cigarette smoking is harmful to your health, and it has been assiduously followed by climate deniers for the past 20 years.One of the best known international proponents of such strategies is US think tank, the Heartland Institute.

The first in a planned series of anti-global warming billboards in the US, comparing “climate alarmists” with terrorists and mass murderers. The campaign was canned after a backlash. The Heartland Institute

Just to be clear: there is no evidence that the Heartland Institute helped fund the NZ court challenge. In 2012, one of the Trustees who brought the action against NIWA said Heartland had not donated anything to the case.

However, Heartland is known to have been active in NZ in the past, providing funding to theNZ Climate Science Coalition and a related International Coalition, as well as financially backing prominent climate “sceptic” campaigns in Australia.

An extract from a 1999 letter from the Heartland Institute to tobacco company Philip Morris.University of California, San Francisco, Legacy Tobacco Documents Library

The Heartland Institute also has a long record ofworking with tobacco companies, as the letter on the right illustrates. (You can read that letter and other industry documents in full here. Meanwhile, Heartland’s reply to critics of its tobacco and fossil fuel campaigns is here.)

Earlier this month, the news broke that major tobacco companies will finally admit they “deliberately deceived the American public”, in “corrective statements”that would run on prime-time TV, in newspapers and even on cigarette packs.

It’s taken a 15-year court battle with the US government to reach this point, and it shows that evidence can trump doubt-mongering in the long run.

A similar day may come for those who actively work to cast doubt on climate science.

Industry Awakens to Threat of Climate Change (New York Times)

A Coke bottling plant in Winona, Minn. The company has been affected by global droughts. Andrew Link/Winona Daily News, via Associated Press

By CORAL DAVENPORT

JAN. 23, 2014

WASHINGTON — Coca-Cola has always been more focused on its economic bottom line than on global warming, but when the company lost a lucrative operating license in India because of a serious water shortage there in 2004, things began to change.

Today, after a decade of increasing damage to Coke’s balance sheet as global droughts dried up the water needed to produce its soda, the company has embraced the idea of climate change as an economically disruptive force.

“Increased droughts, more unpredictable variability, 100-year floods every two years,” said Jeffrey Seabright, Coke’s vice president for environment and water resources, listing the problems that he said were also disrupting the company’s supply of sugar cane and sugar beets, as well as citrus for its fruit juices. “When we look at our most essential ingredients, we see those events as threats.”

Coke reflects a growing view among American business leaders and mainstream economists who see global warming as a force that contributes to lower gross domestic products, higher food and commodity costs, broken supply chains and increased financial risk. Their position is at striking odds with the longstanding argument, advanced by the coal industry and others, that policies to curb carbon emissions are more economically harmful than the impact of climate change.

“The bottom line is that the policies will increase the cost of carbon and electricity,” said Roger Bezdek, an economist who produced a report for the coal lobby that was released this week. “Even the most conservative estimates peg the social benefit of carbon-based fuels as 50 times greater than its supposed social cost.”

Some tycoons are no longer listening.

At the Swiss resort of Davos, corporate leaders and politicians gathered for the annual four-day World Economic Forum will devote all of Friday to panels and talks on the threat of climate change. The emphasis will be less about saving polar bears and more about promoting economic self-interest.

In Philadelphia this month, the American Economic Association inaugurated its new president, William D. Nordhaus, a Yale economist and one of the world’s foremost experts on the economics of climate change.

“There is clearly a growing recognition of this in the broader academic economic community,” said Mr. Nordhaus, who has spent decades researching the economic impacts of both climate change and of policies intended to mitigate climate change.

In Washington, the World Bank president, Jim Yong Kim, has put climate change at the center of the bank’s mission, citing global warming as the chief contributor to rising global poverty rates and falling G.D.P.’s in developing nations. In Europe, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the Paris-based club of 34 industrialized nations, has begun to warn of the steep costs of increased carbon pollution.

Nike, which has more than 700 factories in 49 countries, many in Southeast Asia, is also speaking out because of extreme weather that is disrupting its supply chain. In 2008, floods temporarily shut down four Nike factories in Thailand, and the company remains concerned about rising droughts in regions that produce cotton, which the company uses in its athletic clothes.

“That puts less cotton on the market, the price goes up, and you have market volatility,” said Hannah Jones, the company’s vice president for sustainability and innovation. Nike has already reported the impact of climate change on water supplies on its financial risk disclosure forms to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Both Nike and Coke are responding internally: Coke uses water-conservation technologies and Nike is using more synthetic material that is less dependent on weather conditions. At Davos and in global capitals, the companies are also lobbying governments to enact environmentally friendly policies.

But the ideas are a tough sell in countries like China and India, where cheap coal-powered energy is lifting the economies and helping to raise millions of people out of poverty. Even in Europe, officials have begun to balk at the cost of environmental policies: On Wednesday, the European Union scaled back its climate change and renewable energy commitments, as high energy costs, declining industrial competitiveness and a recognition that the economy is unlikely to rebound soon caused European policy makers to question the short-term economic trade-offs of climate policy.

In the United States, the rich can afford to weigh in. The California hedge-fund billionaire Thomas F. Steyer, who has used millions from his own fortune to support political candidates who favor climate policy, is working with Michael R. Bloomberg, the former New York mayor, and Henry M. Paulson Jr., a former Treasury secretary in the George W. Bush administration, to commission an economic study on the financial risks associated with climate change. The study, titled “Risky Business,” aims to assess the potential impacts of climate change by region and by sector across the American economy.

“This study is about one thing, the economics,” Mr. Paulson said in an interview, adding that “business leaders are not adequately focused on the economic impact of climate change.”

Also consulting on the “Risky Business” report is Robert E. Rubin, a former Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration. “There are a lot of really significant, monumental issues facing the global economy, but this supersedes all else,” Mr. Rubin said in an interview. “To make meaningful headway in the economics community and the business community, you’ve got to make it concrete.”

Last fall, the governments of seven countries — Colombia, Ethiopia, Indonesia, South Korea, Norway, Sweden and Britain — created the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate and jointly began another study on how governments and businesses can address climate risks to better achieve economic growth. That study and the one commissioned by Mr. Steyer and others are being published this fall, just before a major United Nations meeting on climate change.

Although many Republicans oppose the idea of a price or tax on carbon pollution, some conservative economists endorse the idea. Among them are Arthur B. Laffer, senior economic adviser to President Ronald Reagan; the Harvard economist N. Gregory Mankiw, who was economic adviser to Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign; and Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the head of the American Action Forum, a conservative think tank, and an economic adviser to the 2008 presidential campaign of Senator John McCain, the Arizona Republican.

“There’s no question that if we get substantial changes in atmospheric temperatures, as all the evidence suggests, that it’s going to contribute to sea-level rise,” Mr. Holtz-Eakin said. “There will be agriculture and economic effects — it’s inescapable.” He added, “I’d be shocked if people supported anything other than a carbon tax — that’s how economists think about it.”

Soap Bubbles for Predicting Cyclone Intensity? (Science Daily)

Jan. 8, 2014 — Could soap bubbles be used to predict the strength of hurricanes and typhoons? However unexpected it may sound, this question prompted physicists at the Laboratoire Ondes et Matière d’Aquitaine (CNRS/université de Bordeaux) to perform a highly novel experiment: they used soap bubbles to model atmospheric flow. A detailed study of the rotation rates of the bubble vortices enabled the scientists to obtain a relationship that accurately describes the evolution of their intensity, and propose a simple model to predict that of tropical cyclones.

Vortices in a soap bubble. (Credit: © Hamid Kellay)

The work, carried out in collaboration with researchers from the Institut de Mathématiques de Bordeaux (CNRS/université de Bordeaux/Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux) and a team from Université de la Réunion, has just been published in the journal NatureScientific Reports.

Predicting wind intensity or strength in tropical cyclones, typhoons and hurricanes is a key objective in meteorology: the lives of hundreds of thousands of people may depend on it. However, despite recent progress, such forecasts remain difficult since they involve many factors related to the complexity of these giant vortices and their interaction with the environment. A new research avenue has now been opened up by physicists at the Laboratoire Ondes et Matière d’Aquitaine (CNRS/Université Bordeaux 1), who have performed a highly novel experiment using, of all things, soap bubbles.

The researchers carried out simulations of flow on soap bubbles, reproducing the curvature of the atmosphere and approximating as closely as possible a simple model of atmospheric flow. The experiment allowed them to obtain vortices that resemble tropical cyclones and whose rotation rate and intensity exhibit astonishing dynamics-weak initially or just after the birth of the vortex, and increasing significantly over time. Following this intensification phase, the vortex attains its maximum intensity before entering a phase of decline.

A detailed study of the rotation rate of the vortices enabled the researchers to obtain a simple relationship that accurately describes the evolution of their intensity. For instance, the relationship can be used to determine the maximum intensity of the vortex and the time it takes to reach it, on the basis of its initial evolution. This prediction can begin around fifty hours after the formation of the vortex, a period corresponding to approximately one quarter of its lifetime and during which wind speeds intensify. The team then set out to verify that these results could be applied to real tropical cyclones. By applying the same analysis to approximately 150 tropical cyclones in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, they showed that the relationship held true for such low-pressure systems. This study therefore provides a simple model that could help meteorologists to better predict the strength of tropical cyclones in the future.

Journal Reference:

  1. T. Meuel, Y. L. Xiong, P. Fischer, C. H. Bruneau, M. Bessafi, H. Kellay. Intensity of vortices: from soap bubbles to hurricanesScientific Reports, 2013; 3 DOI:10.1038/srep03455

Researchers Target Sea Level Rise to Save Years of Archaeological Evidence (Science Daily)

Jan. 16, 2014 — Prehistoric shell mounds found on some of Florida’s most pristine beaches are at risk of washing away as the sea level rises, wiping away thousands of years of archaeological evidence.

“The largest risk for these ancient treasure troves of information is sea level rise,” said Shawn Smith, a senior research associate with the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies at Florida State University.

But a joint project between Smith and the National Park Service is drawing attention to the problem to hopefully minimize the impact on the state’s cultural sites.

Smith and Margo Schwadron, an archaeologist with the National Park Service, have embarked on a project to examine past and future changes in climate and how we can adapt to those changes to save areas of shoreline and thus preserve cultural and archeological evidence.

“We’re kind of the pioneers in looking at the cultural focus of this issue,” Smith said, noting that most weather and ocean experts are concerned about city infrastructure for coastal areas.

To complete the project, the National Park Service awarded Smith a $30,000 grant. With that money, Smith and former Florida State University undergraduate Marcus Johnson spent hours compiling modern, colonial and paleo weather data.

The focus of their initial research is the Canaveral National Seashore and Everglades National Park, which both have prehistoric shell mounds, about 50 feet to 70 feet high. Researchers believe these shell mounds served as foundations for structures and settlements and later served as navigational landmarks during European exploration of the region.

Modern temperature and storm system information was easily available to researchers. But, to go hundreds and then thousands of years back took a slightly different approach.

Log books from old Spanish forts as well as ships that crossed the Atlantic had to be examined to find the missing information.

The result was a comprehensive data set for the region, so detailed that modern era weather conditions are now available by the hour.

Smith and Schwadron are trying to secure more funding to continue their work, but for now, they are making their data set available to the general public and other researchers in hopes of raising awareness about the unexpected effects of sea level rise.

The National Park Service has also published a brochure on climate change and the impact that sea level rise could have on the shell mounds found at Cape Canaveral.

Violence, Infectious Disease and Climate Change Contributed to Indus Civilization Collapse (Science Daily)

Jan. 16, 2014 — A new study on the human skeletal remains from the ancient Indus city of Harappa provides evidence that inter-personal violence and infectious diseases played a role in the demise of the Indus, or Harappan Civilization around 4,000 years ago.

Evidence for maxillary infection in individual G.I.S.15. The lesions included porosity, alveolar resorption, abscessing at the right canine and third premolar, and antemortem tooth loss (a = right ventral view). This individual also had inflammatory changes to the palatine process of the maxilla leading to localized bone destruction and perforation (b = inferior view of palate). There is evidence for porosity and inflammation at the inferior margin of the pyriform aperture, porosity and deformation of the infraorbital foramen caused by infection of the left maxillary sinus (c: ventral view). (Credit: Gwen Robbins Schug, K. Elaine Blevins, Brett Cox, Kelsey Gray, V. Mushrif-Tripathy. Infection, Disease, and Biosocial Processes at the End of the Indus Civilization. PLoS ONE, 2013; 8 (12): e84814 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0084814)

The Indus Civilization stretched over a million square kilometers of what is now Pakistan and India in the Third Millennium B.C. While contemporaneous civilizations in Egypt and Mesopotomia, are well-known, their Indus trading partners have remained more of a mystery.

Archaeological research has demonstrated that Indus cities grew rapidly from 2200-1900 B.C., when they were largely abandoned. “The collapse of the Indus Civilization and the reorganization of its human population has been controversial for a long time,” lead author of the paper published last month in the journal PLOS ONE, Gwen Robbins Schug, explained. Robbins Schug is an associate professor of anthropology at Appalachian State University.

Climate, economic, and social changes all played a role in the process of urbanization and collapse, but little was known about how these changes affected the human population.

Robbins Schug and an international team of researchers examined evidence for trauma and infectious disease in the human skeletal remains from three burial areas at Harappa, one of the largest cities in the Indus Civilization. The results of their analysis counter longstanding claims that the Indus civilization developed as a peaceful, cooperative, and egalitarian state-level society, without social differentiation, hierarchy, or differences in access to basic resources.

The data suggest instead that some communities at Harappa faced more significant impacts than others from climate and socio-economic strains, particularly the socially disadvantaged or marginalized communities who are most vulnerable to violence and disease. This pattern is expected in strongly socially differentiated, hierarchical but weakly controlled societies facing resource stress.

Robbins Schug’s and colleagues’ findings add to the growing body of research about the character of Indus society and the nature of its collapse.

“Early research had proposed that ecological factors were the cause of the demise, but there wasn’t much paleo-environmental evidence to confirm those theories,” Robbins Schug said. “In the past few decades, there have been refinements to the available techniques for reconstructing paleo-environments and burgeoning interest in this field.”

When paleoclimate, archaeology, and human skeletal biology approaches are combined, scientists can glean important insights from the past, addressing long-standing and socially relevant questions.

“Rapid climate change events have wide-ranging impacts on human communities,” Robbins Schug said. “Scientists cannot make assumptions that climate changes will always equate to violence and disease. However, in this case, it appears that the rapid urbanization process in Indus cities, and the increasingly large amount of culture contact, brought new challenges to the human population. Infectious diseases like leprosy and tuberculosis were probably transmitted across an interaction sphere that spanned Middle and South Asia.”

Robbins Schug’s research shows that leprosy appeared at Harappa during the urban phase of the Indus Civilization, and its prevalence significantly increased through time. New diseases, such as tuberculosis, also appear in the Late Harappan or post-urban phase burials. Violent injury such as cranial trauma also increases through time, a finding that is remarkable, she said, given that evidence for violence is very rare in prehistoric South Asian sites generally.

“As the environment changed, the exchange network became increasingly incoherent. When you combine that with social changes and this particular cultural context, it all worked together to create a situation that became untenable,” she said.

The results of the study are striking, according to Robbins Schug, because violence and disease increased through time, with the highest rates found as the human population was abandoning the cities. However, an even more interesting result is that individuals who were excluded from the city’s formal cemeteries had the highest rates of violence and disease. In a small ossuary southeast of the city, men, women, and children were interred in a small pit. The rate of violence in this sample was 50 percent for the 10 crania preserved, and more than 20 percent of these individuals demonstrated evidence of infection with leprosy.

Robbins Schug said lessons from the Indus Civilization are applicable to modern societies.

“Human populations in semi-arid regions of the world, including South Asia, currently face disproportionate impacts from global climate change,” the researchers wrote. “The evidence from Harappa offers insights into how social and biological challenges impacted past societies facing rapid population growth, climate change and environmental degradation. Unfortunately, in this case, increasing levels of violence and disease accompanied massive levels of migration and resource stress and disproportionate impacts were felt by the most vulnerable members of society.”

Journal Reference:

  1. Gwen Robbins Schug, K. Elaine Blevins, Brett Cox, Kelsey Gray, V. Mushrif-Tripathy. Infection, Disease, and Biosocial Processes at the End of the Indus Civilization.PLoS ONE, 2013; 8 (12): e84814 DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0084814

Learning How to Die in the Anthropocene (New York Times)

November 10, 2013, 3:00 pm

By ROY SCRANTON

Jeffery DelViscio

I.

Driving into Iraq just after the 2003 invasion felt like driving into the future. We convoyed all day, all night, past Army checkpoints and burned-out tanks, till in the blue dawn Baghdad rose from the desert like a vision of hell: Flames licked the bruised sky from the tops of refinery towers, cyclopean monuments bulged and leaned against the horizon, broken overpasses swooped and fell over ruined suburbs, bombed factories, and narrow ancient streets.

Civilizations have marched blindly toward disaster because humans are wired to believe that tomorrow will be much like today.

With “shock and awe,” our military had unleashed the end of the world on a city of six million — a city about the same size as Houston or Washington. The infrastructure was totaled: water, power, traffic, markets and security fell to anarchy and local rule. The city’s secular middle class was disappearing, squeezed out between gangsters, profiteers, fundamentalists and soldiers. The government was going down, walls were going up, tribal lines were being drawn, and brutal hierarchies savagely established.

I was a private in the United States Army. This strange, precarious world was my new home. If I survived.

Two and a half years later, safe and lazy back in Fort Sill, Okla., I thought I had made it out. Then I watched on television as Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans. This time it was the weather that brought shock and awe, but I saw the same chaos and urban collapse I’d seen in Baghdad, the same failure of planning and the same tide of anarchy. The 82nd Airborne hit the ground, took over strategic points and patrolled streets now under de facto martial law. My unit was put on alert to prepare for riot control operations. The grim future I’d seen in Baghdad was coming home: not terrorism, not even W.M.D.’s, but a civilization in collapse, with a crippled infrastructure, unable to recuperate from shocks to its system.

And today, with recovery still going on more than a year after Sandy and many critics arguing that the Eastern seaboard is no more prepared for a huge weather event than we were last November, it’s clear that future’s not going away.

This March, Admiral Samuel J. Locklear III, the commander of the United States Pacific Command, told security and foreign policy specialists in Cambridge, Mass., that global climate change was the greatest threat the United States faced — more dangerous than terrorism, Chinese hackers and North Korean nuclear missiles. Upheaval from increased temperatures, rising seas and radical destabilization “is probably the most likely thing that is going to happen…” he said, “that will cripple the security environment, probably more likely than the other scenarios we all often talk about.’’

Locklear’s not alone. Tom Donilon, the national security adviser,said much the same thing in April, speaking to an audience at Columbia’s new Center on Global Energy Policy. James Clapper, director of national intelligence, told the Senate in March that “Extreme weather events (floods, droughts, heat waves) will increasingly disrupt food and energy markets, exacerbating state weakness, forcing human migrations, and triggering riots, civil disobedience, and vandalism.”

On the civilian side, the World Bank’s recent report, “Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience,” offers a dire prognosis for the effects of global warming, which climatologists now predict will raise global temperatures by 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit within a generation and 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit within 90 years. Projections from researchers at the University of Hawaii find us dealing with “historically unprecedented” climates as soon as 2047. The climate scientist James Hansen, formerly with NASA, has argued that we face an “apocalyptic” future. This grim view is seconded by researchers worldwide, including Anders LevermannPaul and Anne Ehrlich,Lonnie Thompson and manymanymany others.

This chorus of Jeremiahs predicts a radically transformed global climate forcing widespread upheaval — not possibly, not potentially, but inevitably. We have passed the point of no return. From the point of view of policy experts, climate scientists and national security officials, the question is no longer whether global warming exists or how we might stop it, but how we are going to deal with it.

II.

There’s a word for this new era we live in: the Anthropocene. This term, taken up by geologistspondered by intellectuals and discussed in the pages of publications such as The Economist and the The New York Times, represents the idea that we have entered a new epoch in Earth’s geological history, one characterized by the arrival of the human species as a geological force. The biologist Eugene F. Stoermer and the Nobel-Prize-winning chemist Paul Crutzen advanced the term in 2000, and it has steadily gained acceptance as evidence has increasingly mounted that the changes wrought by global warming will affect not just the world’s climate and biological diversity, but its very geology — and not just for a few centuries, but for millenniums. The geophysicist David Archer’s 2009 book, “The Long Thaw: How Humans are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth’s Climate,” lays out a clear and concise argument for how huge concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and melting ice will radically transform the planet, beyond freak storms and warmer summers, beyond any foreseeable future.

The Stratigraphy Commission of the Geological Society of London — the scientists responsible for pinning the “golden spikes” that demarcate geological epochs such as the Pliocene, Pleistocene, and Holocene — have adopted the Anthropocene as a term deserving further consideration, “significant on the scale of Earth history.” Working groups are discussing what level of geological time-scale it might be (an “epoch” like the Holocene, or merely an “age” like the Calabrian), and at what date we might say it began. The beginning of the Great Acceleration, in the middle of the 20th century? The beginning of the Industrial Revolution, around 1800? The advent of agriculture?

Every day I went out on mission in Iraq, I looked down the barrel of the future and saw a dark, empty hole.

The challenge the Anthropocene poses is a challenge not just to national security, to food and energy markets, or to our “way of life” — though these challenges are all real, profound, and inescapable. The greatest challenge the Anthropocene poses may be to our sense of what it means to be human. Within 100 years — within three to five generations — we will face average temperatures 7 degrees Fahrenheit higher than today, rising seas at least three to 10 feet higher, and worldwide shifts in crop belts, growing seasons and population centers. Within a thousand years, unless we stop emitting greenhouse gases wholesale right now, humans will be living in a climate the Earth hasn’t seen since the Pliocene, three million years ago, when oceans were 75 feet higher than they are today. We face the imminent collapse of the agricultural, shipping and energy networks upon which the global economy depends, a large-scale die-off in the biosphere that’s already well on its way, and our own possible extinction. If homo sapiens (or some genetically modified variant) survives the next millenniums, it will be survival in a world unrecognizably different from the one we have inhabited.

Jeffery DelViscio

Geological time scales, civilizational collapse and species extinction give rise to profound problems that humanities scholars and academic philosophers, with their taste for fine-grained analysis, esoteric debates and archival marginalia, might seem remarkably ill suited to address. After all, how will thinking about Kant help us trap carbon dioxide? Can arguments between object-oriented ontology and historical materialism protect honeybees from colony collapse disorder? Are ancient Greek philosophers, medieval theologians, and contemporary metaphysicians going to keep Bangladesh from being inundated by rising oceans?

Of course not. But the biggest problems the Anthropocene poses are precisely those that have always been at the root of humanistic and philosophical questioning: “What does it mean to be human?” and “What does it mean to live?” In the epoch of the Anthropocene, the question of individual mortality — “What does my life mean in the face of death?” — is universalized and framed in scales that boggle the imagination. What does human existence mean against 100,000 years of climate change? What does one life mean in the face of species death or the collapse of global civilization? How do we make meaningful choices in the shadow of our inevitable end?

These questions have no logical or empirical answers. They are philosophical problems par excellence. Many thinkers, including Cicero, Montaigne, Karl Jaspers, and The Stone’s own Simon Critchley, have argued that studying philosophy is learning how to die. If that’s true, then we have entered humanity’s most philosophical age — for this is precisely the problem of the Anthropocene. The rub is that now we have to learn how to die not as individuals, but as a civilization.

III.

Learning how to die isn’t easy. In Iraq, at the beginning, I was terrified by the idea. Baghdad seemed incredibly dangerous, even though statistically I was pretty safe. We got shot at and mortared, and I.E.D.’s laced every highway, but I had good armor, we had a great medic, and we were part of the most powerful military the world had ever seen. The odds were good I would come home. Maybe wounded, but probably alive. Every day I went out on mission, though, I looked down the barrel of the future and saw a dark, empty hole.

“For the soldier death is the future, the future his profession assigns him,” wrote  Simone Weil in her remarkable meditation on war, “The Iliad or the Poem of Force.” “Yet the idea of man’s having death for a future is abhorrent to nature. Once the experience of war makes visible the possibility of death that lies locked up in each moment, our thoughts cannot travel from one day to the next without meeting death’s face.” That was the face I saw in the mirror, and its gaze nearly paralyzed me.

I found my way forward through an 18th-century Samurai manual, Yamamoto Tsunetomo’s “Hagakure,” which commanded: “Meditation on inevitable death should be performed daily.” Instead of fearing my end, I owned it. Every morning, after doing maintenance on my Humvee, I’d imagine getting blown up by an I.E.D., shot by a sniper, burned to death, run over by a tank, torn apart by dogs, captured and beheaded, and succumbing to dysentery. Then, before we rolled out through the gate, I’d tell myself that I didn’t need to worry, because I was already dead. The only thing that mattered was that I did my best to make sure everyone else came back alive. “If by setting one’s heart right every morning and evening, one is able to live as though his body were already dead,” wrote Tsunetomo, “he gains freedom in the Way.”

I got through my tour in Iraq one day at a time, meditating each morning on my inevitable end. When I left Iraq and came back stateside, I thought I’d left that future behind. Then I saw it come home in the chaos that was unleashed after Katrina hit New Orleans. And then I saw it again when Sandy battered New York and New Jersey: Government agencies failed to move quickly enough, and volunteer groups like Team Rubicon had to step in to manage disaster relief.

Now, when I look into our future — into the Anthropocene — I see water rising up to wash out lower Manhattan. I see food riots, hurricanes, and climate refugees. I see 82nd Airborne soldiers shooting looters. I see grid failure, wrecked harbors, Fukushima waste, and plagues. I see Baghdad. I see the Rockaways. I see a strange, precarious world.

Our new home.

The human psyche naturally rebels against the idea of its end. Likewise, civilizations have throughout history marched blindly toward disaster, because humans are wired to believe that tomorrow will be much like today — it is unnatural for us to think that this way of life, this present moment, this order of things is not stable and permanent. Across the world today, our actions testify to our belief that we can go on like this forever, burning oil, poisoning the seas, killing off other species, pumping carbon into the air, ignoring the ominous silence of our coal mine canaries in favor of the unending robotic tweets of our new digital imaginarium. Yet the reality of global climate change is going to keep intruding on our fantasies of perpetual growth, permanent innovation and endless energy, just as the reality of mortality shocks our casual faith in permanence.

The biggest problem climate change poses isn’t how the Department of Defense should plan for resource wars, or how we should put up sea walls to protect Alphabet City, or when we should evacuate Hoboken. It won’t be addressed by buying a Prius, signing a treaty, or turning off the air-conditioning. The biggest problem we face is a philosophical one: understanding that this civilization is already dead. The sooner we confront this problem, and the sooner we realize there’s nothing we can do to save ourselves, the sooner we can get down to the hard work of adapting, with mortal humility, to our new reality.

The choice is a clear one. We can continue acting as if tomorrow will be just like yesterday, growing less and less prepared for each new disaster as it comes, and more and more desperately invested in a life we can’t sustain. Or we can learn to see each day as the death of what came before, freeing ourselves to deal with whatever problems the present offers without attachment or fear.

If we want to learn to live in the Anthropocene, we must first learn how to die.

Europe to Suffer from More Severe and Persistent Droughts (Science Daily)

Jan. 9, 2014 — As Europe is battered by storms, new research reminds us of the other side of the coin. By the end of this century, droughts in Europe are expected to be more frequent and intense due to climate change and increased water use.

Dry river bed in a peat upland in Northern England. (Credit: Catherine Moody, distributed via imaggeo.egu.eu)

These results, by researchers from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the University of Kassel in Germany, are published today in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, an open access journal of the European Geosciences Union (EGU).

“Our research shows that many river basins, especially in southern parts of Europe, are likely to become more prone to periods of reduced water supply due to climate change,” says Giovanni Forzieri, a researcher in climate risk management at the JRC and lead author of the study. “An increasing demand for water, following a growing population and intensive use of water for irrigation and industry, will result in even stronger reductions in river flow levels.”

Drought is a major natural disaster that can have considerable impacts on society, the environment and the economy. In Europe alone, the cost of drought over the past three decades has amounted to over 100 billion euros. In this study, the researchers wanted to find out if and where in Europe increasing temperatures and intensive water consumption could make future droughts more severe and long-lasting.

To do this, they analysed climate and hydrological models under different scenarios. “Scenarios are narratives of possible evolutions — up to 2100 in this study — of our society that we use to quantify future greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption by different sectors,” explains Luc Feyen, a hydrologist at JRC and co-author of the paper. “Climate and water-use models then translate the greenhouse gas concentrations and water requirement into future climate and water consumption projections.”

The scientists then used these projected conditions to drive a hydrological model that mimics the distribution and flow of water on Earth. By running this model until 2100 for all river basins in Europe, they could evaluate how drought conditions may change in magnitude and severity over the 21st century.

The research shows that southern parts of Europe will be the most affected. Stream and river minimum flow levels may be lowered by up to 40% and periods of water deficiency may increase up to 80% due to climate change alone in the Iberian Peninsula, south of France, Italy and the Balkans.

Higher temperatures not only result in more water being evaporated from soils, trees and bodies of water, but will also lead to more frequent and prolonged dry spells, reducing water supply and worsening droughts. The emission scenario used in the study predicts that average global temperature will increase by up to 3.4°C by 2100, relative to the period 1961-1990. But the authors warn that the warming projected for Europe, particularly its southern regions, is even stronger. “Over the Iberian Peninsula, for example, summer mean temperature is projected to increase by up to 5°C by the end of this century,” says Feyen.

In addition to climate warming, intensive water use will further aggravate drought conditions by 10-30% in southern Europe, as well as in the west and centre of the continent, and in some parts of the UK.

“The results of this study emphasise the urgency of sustainable water resource management that is able to adapt to these potential changes in the hydrological system to minimise the negative socio-economic and environmental impacts,” Forzieri concludes.

Journal Reference:

  1. G. Forzieri, L. Feyen, R. Rojas, M. Flörke, F. Wimmer, A. Bianchi. Ensemble projections of future streamflow droughts in EuropeHydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2014; 18 (1): 85 DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-85-2014

Climate Engineering: What Do the Public Think? (Science Daily)

Jan. 12, 2014 — Members of the public have a negative view of climate engineering, the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the environment to counteract climate change, according to a new study.

The results are from researchers from the University of Southampton and Massey University (New Zealand) who have undertaken the first systematic large-scale evaluation of the public reaction to climate engineering.

The work is published in Nature Climate Change this week (12 January 2014).

Some scientists think that climate engineering approaches will be required to combat the inexorable rise in atmospheric CO2 due to the burning of fossil fuels. Climate engineering could involve techniques that reduce the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere or approaches that slow temperature rise by reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface.

Co-author Professor Damon Teagle of the University of Southampton said: “Because even the concept of climate engineering is highly controversial, there is pressing need to consult the public and understand their concerns before policy decisions are made.”

Lead author, Professor Malcolm Wright of Massey University, said: “Previous attempts to engage the public with climate engineering have been exploratory and small scale. In our study, we have drawn on commercial methods used to evaluate brands and new product concepts to develop a comparative approach for evaluating the public reaction to a variety of climate engineering concepts.”

The results show that the public has strong negative views towards climate engineering. Where there are positive reactions, they favour approaches that reduce carbon dioxide over those that reflected sunlight.

“It was a striking result and a very clear pattern,” said Professor Wright. “Interventions such as putting mirrors in space or fine particles into the stratosphere are not well received. More natural processes of cloud brightening or enhanced weathering are less likely to raise objections, but the public react best to creating biochar (making charcoal from vegetation to lock in CO2) or capturing carbon directly from the air.”

Nonetheless, even the most well regarded techniques still has a net negative perception.

The work consulted large representative samples in both Australia and New Zealand. Co-author Pam Feetham said: “The responses are remarkably consistent from both countries, with surprisingly few variations except for a slight tendency for older respondents to view climate engineering more favourably.”

Professor Wright noted that giving the public a voice so early in technological development was unusual, but increasingly necessary. “If these techniques are developed the public must be consulted. Our methods can be employed to evaluate the responses in other countries and reapplied in the future to measure how public opinion changes as these potential new technologies are discussed and developed,” he said.

Journal Reference:

  1. Malcolm J. Wright, Damon A. H. Teagle, Pamela M. Feetham. A quantitative evaluation of the public response to climate engineeringNature Climate Change, 2014; DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2087

Our singularity future: should we hack the climate? (Singularity Hub)

Written By: 

Posted: 01/8/14 8:31 AM

Basaltlake-coring_greenland

Even the most adamant techno-optimists among us must admit that new technologies can introduce hidden dangers: Fire, as the adage goes, can cook the dinner, but it can also burn the village down.

The most powerful example of unforeseen disadvantages stemming from technology is climate change. Should we attempt to fix a problem caused by technology, using more novel technology to hack the climate? The question has spurred heated debate.

Those in favor point to failed efforts to curb carbon dioxide emissions and insist we need other options. What if a poorly understood climatic tipping point tips and the weather becomes dangerous overnight; how will slowing emissions help us then?

“If you look at the projections for how much the Earth’s air temperature is supposed to warm over the next century, it is frightening. We should at least know the options,” said Rob Wood, a University of Washington climatologist who edited a recent special issue of the journal Climatic Change devoted to geoengineering.

Wood’s view is gaining support, as the predictions about the effects of climate change continue to grow more dire, and the weather plays its part to a tee.

But big, important questions need answers before geoengineering projects take off. Critics point to science’s flimsy understanding of the complex systems that drive the weather. And even supporters lament the lack of any experimental framework to contain disparate experiments on how to affect it.

“Proposed projects have been protested or canceled, and calls for a governance framework abound,” Lisa Dilling and Rachel Hauser wrote in a paper that appears in the special issue. “Some have argued, even, that it is difficult if not impossible to answer some research questions in geoengineering at the necessary scale without actually implementing geoengineering itself.”

Most proposed methods of geoengineering derive from pretty basic science, but questions surround how to deploy them at a planetary scale and how to measure desired and undesired effects on complex weather and ocean cycles. Research projects that would shed light on those questions would be big enough themselves potentially to affect neighboring populations, raising ethical questions as well.

stratoshieldEarlier efforts to test fertilizing the ocean with iron to feed algae that would suck carbon dioxide from the air and to spray the pollutant sulfur dioxide, which reflects solar radiation, into the atmosphere were mired in controversy. A reputable UK project abandoned its plans to test its findings in the field.

But refinements on those earlier approaches are percolating. They include efforts both to remove previously emitted carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and to reduce the portion of the sun’s radiation that enters the atmosphere.

One method of carbon dioxide removal (or CDR) would expose large quantities of carbon-reactive minerals to the air and then store the resulting compounds underground; another would use large C02 vacuums to suck the greenhouse gas directly from the air into underground storage.

Solar radiation management (or SRM) methods include everything from painting roofs white to seeding the clouds with salt crystals to make them more reflective and mimicking the climate-cooling effects of volcanic eruptions by spraying  sulfur compounds into the atmosphere.

The inevitable impact of geoengineering research on the wider population has led many scientists to compare geoengineering to genetic research. The comparison to genetic research also hints at the huge benefits geoengineering could have if it successfully wards off the most savage effects of climate change.

As with genetic research, principles have been developed to shape the ethics of the research. Still, the principles remain vague, according to a 2012 Nature editorial, and flawed, according to a philosophy-of-science take in the recent journal issue. Neither the U.S. government nor international treaties have addressed geoengineering per se, though many treaties would influence its testing implementation.

The hottest research now explores how long climate-hacks would take to work, lining up their timelines with the slow easing of global warming that would result from dramatically lowered carbon dioxide emissions, and how to weigh the costs of geoengineering projects and accommodate public debate.

Proceeding with caution won’t get fast answers, but it seems a wise way to address an issue as thorny as readjusting the global thermostat.

Climate change rattles mental health of Inuit in Labrador (CBC)

‘Grief, mourning, anger, frustration’ over environmental changes

CBC News Posted: Jan 10, 2014 5:22 PM ET Last Updated: Jan 10, 2014 5:58 PM ET

This photo supplied by researcher Ashlee Cunsolo Willox shows cabins in Double Mer just outside of Rigolet in Nunatsiavut, Labrador. Climate change has caused ice to break up or not form at all, making it difficult for Inuit populations to access the cabins they use as a base for hunting and trapping.This photo supplied by researcher Ashlee Cunsolo Willox shows cabins in Double Mer just outside of Rigolet in Nunatsiavut, Labrador. Climate change has caused ice to break up or not form at all, making it difficult for Inuit populations to access the cabins they use as a base for hunting and trapping. (Couresty My Word: Storytelling & Digital Media Lab)

Researchers studying the mental health and well-being of Inuit populations in coastal Labrador say rising temperatures are having damaging psychological effects on people in traditional communities.

‘Many people said they also felt very depressed about not being able to get out there on the land’– Ashlee Cunsolo Willox, researcher for Inuit Mental Health Adaptation to Climate Change project

In an interview airing on CBC Radio’s Quirks & Quarks on Saturday, Dr. Ashlee Cunsolo Willox, who has been working in partnership with Inuit communities in Nunatsiavut since 2009, describes intense feelings of isolation among people there following temperature changes that have caused disruptions in how the ice and snow are interacting.

“The North Labrador Coast is one of the fastest-changing and fastest-warming areas anywhere in the world,” she told host Bob McDonald. “In particular, rising temperatures have led to a real decrease in sea ice.”

There were strong emotional reactions to that loss among all 120 people interviewed by researchers behind the community-based Inuit Mental Health Adaptation to Climate Change project.

The feelings included a sense of grief, mourning, anger, frustration, sadness, and many people said they also felt very depressed about not being able to get out there on the land,” Cunsolo Willox said.

Traditional routes no longer safe

Wildlife and vegetation have changed, with caribou and moose moving further north, and traditional berries have been failing to grow when they have in the past.

“In some cases, they’re getting less snow than before, which makes it very difficult to travel inland by Ski-Doo or by dog team,” added Cunsolo Willox, who holds the Canada Research Chair in Determinants of Healthy Communities at Cape Breton University.

She and her colleagues interviewed people in the communities of Nain, Hopedale, Postville, Makkovik and Rigolet, and their work is run in partnership with the Rigolet Inuit Community Government. The majority of those interviewed are Inuit.

“People describe themselves as land people, as people of the snow and the ice, and would say that going out on the land and hunting and trapping and fishing [is] just as much part of their life as breathing,” Cunsolo Willox said.

The full interview will be broadcast on Saturday’s program at noon.

Scientists: Americans are becoming weather wimps (AP)

By SETH BORENSTEIN

— Jan. 9, 2014 5:33 PM EST

Deep Freeze Weather Wimps

FILE – In this Sunday, Jan. 5, 2014, file photo, a person struggles to cross a street in blowing and falling snow as the Gateway Arch appears in the distance, in St. Louis. The deep freeze that gripped much of the nation this week wasn’t unprecedented, but with global warming we’re getting far fewer bitter cold spells, and many of us have forgotten how frigid winter used to be. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) — We’ve become weather wimps.

As the world warms, the United States is getting fewer bitter cold spells like the one that gripped much of the nation this week. So when a deep freeze strikes, scientists say, it seems more unprecedented than it really is. An Associated Press analysis of the daily national winter temperature shows that cold extremes have happened about once every four years since 1900.

Until recently.

When computer models estimated that the national average daily temperature for the Lower 48 states dropped to 17.9 degrees on Monday, it was the first deep freeze of that magnitude in 17 years, according to Greg Carbin, warning meteorologist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

That stretch — from Jan. 13, 1997 to Monday — is by far the longest the U.S. has gone without the national average plunging below 18 degrees, according to a database of daytime winter temperatures starting in January 1900.

In the past 115 years, there have been 58 days when the national average temperature dropped below 18. Carbin said those occurrences often happen in periods that last several days so it makes more sense to talk about cold outbreaks instead of cold days. There have been 27 distinct cold snaps.

Between 1970 and 1989, a dozen such events occurred, but there were only two in the 1990s and then none until Monday.

“These types of events have actually become more infrequent than they were in the past,” said Carbin, who works at the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla. “This is why there was such a big buzz because people have such short memories.”

Said Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the private firm Weather Underground: “It’s become a lot harder to get these extreme (cold) outbreaks in a planet that’s warming.”

And Monday’s breathtaking chill? It was merely the 55th coldest day — averaged for the continental United States — since 1900.

The coldest day for the Lower 48 since 1900 — as calculated by the computer models — was 12 degrees on Christmas Eve 1983, nearly 6 degrees chillier than Monday.

The average daytime winter temperature is about 33 degrees, according to Carbin’s database.

There have been far more unusually warm winter days in the U.S. than unusually cold ones.

Since Jan. 1, 2000, only two days have ranked in the top 100 coldest: Monday and Tuesday. But there have been 13 in the top 100 warmest winter days, including the warmest since 1900: Dec. 3, 2012. And that pattern is exactly what climate scientists have been saying for years, that the world will get more warm extremes and fewer cold extremes.

Nine of 11 outside climate scientists and meteorologists who reviewed the data for the AP said it showed that as the world warms from heat-trapping gas spewed by the burning of fossil fuels, winters are becoming milder. The world is getting more warm extremes and fewer cold extremes, they said.

“We expect to see a lengthening of time between cold air outbreaks due to a warming climate, but 17 years between outbreaks is probably partially due to an unusual amount of natural variability,” or luck, Masters said in an email. “I expect we’ll go far fewer than 17 years before seeing the next cold air outbreak of this intensity.

And the scientists dismiss global warming skeptics who claim one or two cold days somehow disproves climate change.

“When your hands are freezing off trying to scrape the ice off your car, it can be all too tempting to say, ‘Where’s global warming now? I could use a little of that!’ But you know what? It’s not as cold as it used to be anymore,” Texas Tech University climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe said in an email.

The recent cold spell, which was triggered by a frigid air mass known as the polar vortex that wandered way south of normal, could also be related to a relatively new theory that may prove a weather wild card, said Rutgers University climate scientist Jennifer Francis. Her theory, which has divided mainstream climate scientists, says that melting Arctic sea ice is changing polar weather, moving the jet stream and causing “more weirdness.”

Ryan Maue, a meteorologist with the private firm Weather Bell Analytics who is skeptical about blaming global warming for weather extremes, dismisses Francis’ theory and said he has concerns about the accuracy of Carbin’s database. Maue has his own daily U.S. average temperature showing that Monday was colder than Carbin’s calculations.

Still, he acknowledged that cold nationwide temperatures “occurred with more regularity in the past.”

Many climate scientists say Americans are weather weenies who forgot what a truly cold winter is like.

“I think that people’s memory about climate is really terrible,” Texas A&M University climate scientist Andrew Dessler wrote in an email. “So I think this cold event feels more extreme than it actually is because we’re just not used to really cold winters anymore.”

Antarctic Emperor Penguins May Be Adapting to Warmer Temperatures (Science Daily)

Jan. 9, 2014 — A new study of four Antarctic emperor penguin colonies suggest that unexpected breeding behaviour may be a sign that the birds are adapting to environmental change.

Emperor penguin colony viewed from the air. (Credit: Ian Potten)

Analysis of satellite observations reveals that penguin colonies moved from their traditional breeding grounds during years when the thin layer of ice (sea ice) formed later than usual to the much thicker floating ice shelves that surround the continent.

Reporting this week in the online journal,PLOS ONE, a team of scientists from British Antarctic Survey (BAS), the Australian Antarctic Division and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego in California, describe this extraordinary change in behaviour.

Lead author, Peter Fretwell of BAS said, “These charismatic birds tend to breed on the sea ice because it gives them relatively easy access to waters where they hunt for food. Satellite observations captured of one colony in 2008, 2009 and 2010 show that the concentration of annual sea ice was dense enough to sustain a colony. But this was not the case in 2011 and 2012 when the sea ice did not form until a month after the breeding season began. During those years the birds moved up onto the neighbouring floating ice shelf to raise their young.

“What’s particularly surprising is that climbing up the sides of a floating ice shelf — which at this site can be up to 30 metres high — is a very difficult manoeuvre for emperor penguins. Whilst they are very agile swimmers they have often been thought of as clumsy out of the water.”

The emperor penguins’ reliance on sea ice as a breeding platform coupled with recent concern about changing patterns of sea ice has led to the species being designated as ‘near threatened’ by the IUCN red list. The discovery suggests the species may be capable of adapting their behaviour.

In recent years satellite technology has significantly enhanced the scientists’ ability to locate and monitor emperor penguin populations.

Barbara Wienecke of the Australian Antarctic Division said, “These new findings are an important step forward in helping us understand what the future may hold for these animals, however, we cannot assume that this behaviour is widespread in other penguin populations. The ability of these four colonies to relocate to a different environment — from sea ice to ice shelf — in order to cope with local circumstances, was totally unexpected. We have yet to discover whether or not other species may also be adapting to changing environmental conditions.”

Gerald Kooyman, of the Scripps Institution added: “Without satellite imagery these moves onto shelf ice would not have been detected. It is likely that there are other nuances of the emperor penguin environment that will be detected sooner through their behaviour than by more conventional means of measuring environmental changes.”

Whereas sea-ice is frozen salt water, ice shelves are made up of glacial ice that has flowed from the land onto the sea. At the outer edge of an ice shelf ice cliffs can form and these can be anything up to 60 metres high.

Journal Reference:

  1. Peter T. Fretwell, Phil N. Trathan, Barbara Wienecke, Gerald L. Kooyman. Emperor Penguins Breeding on Iceshelves.PLoS ONE, 2014; 9 (1): e85285 DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0085285

Ecossistemas costeiros ganham destaque na mitigação climática (CarbonoBrasil)

07/1/2014 – 11h55

por Fernanda B. Müller, do CarbonoBrasil

manguezal1 300x196 Ecossistemas costeiros ganham destaque na mitigação climática

Pesquisador ressalta que acessar o potencial de absorção do carbono por manguezais e outros habitats marinho-costeiros poderia ajudar o Brasil conservar e gerir estes ambientes.

A cada ano que passa, a ciência traz novos dados indicando que os ecossistemas marinhos são elementares na captura e armazenamento do dióxido de carbono (CO2) atmosférico – tendo absorvido até um terço dessas emissões provenientes das atividades humanas.

O chamado ‘carbono azul’ é estocado em ambientes tão diversos como manguezais, marismas, gramas marinhas, recifes de coral e outros ecossistemas, intensamente pressionados pelas atividades antrópicas.

Além disso, esses ambientes costeiros são alguns dos mais produtivos no planeta, e fornecem serviços ecossistêmicos essenciais, como proteção costeira contra tempestades e refúgio para o nascimento de grande parte da vida marinha.

Segundo dados da Iniciativa para o Carbono Azul, 83% do ciclo do carbono global passa pelo oceano, e, mesmo com os habitats costeiros cobrindo menos de 2% da sua área, eles equivalem a cerca da metade do carbono sequestrado no oceano.

Entretanto, todo esse potencial está sendo perdido a taxas alarmantes. Um estudo publicado em 2012 no periódico PLOS One alerta que a contínua destruição desses ambientes é responsável pela liberação anual de quase um bilhão de toneladas de dióxido de carbono.

“A perturbação do carbono estocado na biomassa e no metro superior do sedimento em um hectare de manguezal típico pode contribuir com tantas emissões quanto três a cinco hectares de florestas tropicais. Mesmo um hectare de grama marinha, com a sua pequena biomassa viva, pode conter tanto carbono próximo à superfície quanto um hectare de floresta tropical”, ressaltou o estudo.

O potencial de mitigação das mudanças climáticas do ‘carbono azul’ está chamando a atenção de várias instituições internacionais, que, interessadas na preservação dos ecossistemas marinhos, vêm estudando as oportunidades que o cenário internacional de desenvolvimento de baixo carbono pode apresentar.

“Esta conexão com as mudanças climáticas despertou o interesse da comunidade conservacionista, curiosa sobre se atividades de mitigação e financiamento poderiam avançar práticas de manejo sustentável e adaptação nas zonas costeiras”, comentou Stephen Crooks, pesquisador da Universidade East Anglia, que teve seu trabalho com ‘carbono azul’ utilizado durante painéis da Conferência das Partes nº 16 da UNFCCC.

Para trazer informações sobre o assunto, o Programa das Nações Unidas sobre Meio Ambiente (PNUMA) lançou recentemente uma página na internet chamada “The Blue Carbon Portal”, com um fórum de discussões e uma plataforma para networking, além de mostrar iniciativas, notícias e eventos. O portal oferece um mapa com as iniciativas que estão sendo conduzidas em nível nacional, como na Costa Rica, Austrália, Indonésia, entre outros.

Em uma frente mais propositiva, a Conservação Internacional, a União Internacional para a Conservação da Natureza (IUCN) e a Comissão Intergovernamental Oceanográfica da UNESCO lançaram a Iniciativa para o Carbono Azul (Blue Carbon Initiative), um programa global para mitigação das mudanças climáticas através da restauração e do uso sustentável dos ecossistemas marinhos costeiros.

Crooks, que faz parte da Iniciativa para o Carbono Azul, relata que as atividades em torno do reconhecimento do ‘carbono azul’ evoluíram muito nos últimos meses.

No mercado voluntário de carbono, o renomado Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) reconheceu a ‘Restauração e Conservação de Áreas Úmidas’ como uma atividade elegível para criação de créditos de carbono. Ou seja, projetos voltados para a redução das emissões por desmatamento e degradação (REDD) já podem ser desenvolvidos nestas áreas.

Além disso, o Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) recentemente adotou diretrizes para a contabilização das emissões e remoções de gases do efeito estufa (GEEs) associadas ao manejo de áreas úmidas (manguezais, marismas, gramas marinhas).

Porém, os países ainda não são obrigados a calcular suas emissões de áreas úmidas, estando convidados pelo IPCC a testarem a metodologia até 2017.

O documento inclui diretrizes para a contabilização de emissões associadas à drenagem ou reposição de água em áreas úmidas e também para o desmatamento, extração de solo, aquicultura, drenagem e restauração de manguezais.

“A coordenação científica no Brasil poderia apoiar enormemente o desenvolvimento de políticas para o manejo das reservas costeiras de carbono e ajudaria na aplicação da contabilização nacional das emissões e remoções de GEEs de atividades humanas em áreas úmidas”, comentou Crooks.

* Publicado originalmente no site CarbonoBrasil.

Major Reductions in Seafloor Marine Life from Climate Change by 2100 (Science Daily)

Dec. 31, 2013 — A new study quantifies for the first time future losses in deep-sea marine life, using advanced climate models. Results show that even the most remote deep-sea ecosystems are not safe from the impacts of climate change. 

Large animals (megafauna), such as this hydroid Corymorpha glacialis, are projected to suffer major declines under the latest climate change predictions. (Credit: National Oceanography Centre)

An international team of scientists predict seafloor dwelling marine life will decline by up to 38 per cent in the North Atlantic and over five per cent globally over the next century. These changes will be driven by a reduction in the plants and animals that live at the surface of the oceans that feed deep-sea communities. As a result, ecosystem services such as fishing will be threatened.

In the study, led by the National Oceanography Centre, the team used the latest suite of climate models to predict changes in food supply throughout the world oceans. They then applied a relationship between food supply and biomass calculated from a huge global database of marine life.

The results of the study are published this week in the scientific journal Global Change Biology.

These changes in seafloor communities are expected despite living on average four kilometres under the surface of the ocean. This is because their food source, the remains of surface ocean marine life that sink to the seafloor, will dwindle because of a decline in nutrient availability. Nutrient supplies will suffer because of climate impacts such as a slowing of the global ocean circulation, as well as increased separation between water masses — known as ‘stratification’ — as a result of warmer and rainier weather.

Lead author Dr Daniel Jones says: “There has been some speculation about climate change impacts on the seafloor, but we wanted to try and make numerical projections for these changes and estimate specifically where they would occur.

“We were expecting some negative changes around the world, but the extent of changes, particularly in the North Atlantic, were staggering. Globally we are talking about losses of marine life weighing more than every person on the planet put together.”

The projected changes in marine life are not consistent across the world, but most areas will experience negative change. Over 80 per cent of all identified key habitats — such as cold-water coral reefs, seamounts and canyons — will suffer losses in total biomass. The analysis also predicts that animals will get smaller. Smaller animals tend to use energy less efficiently, thereby impacting seabed fisheries and exacerbating the effects of the overall declines in available food.

The study was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) as part of the Marine Environmental Mapping Programme (MAREMAP), and involved researchers from the National Oceanography Centre, the Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada, the University of Tasmania, and the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France.

Journal Reference:

  1. Daniel O. B. Jones, Andrew Yool, Chih-Lin Wei, Stephanie A. Henson, Henry A. Ruhl, Reg A. Watson, Marion Gehlen.Global reductions in seafloor biomass in response to climate changeGlobal Change Biology, 2013; DOI:10.1111/gcb.12480