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Global CO2 Emissions Continued to Increase in 2011, With Per Capita Emissions in China Reaching European Levels (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (July 19, 2012) — Global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) — the main cause of global warming — increased by 3% last year, reaching an all-time high of 34 billion tonnes in 2011. In China, the world’s most populous country, average emissions of CO2 increased by 9% to 7.2 tonnes per capita. China is now within the range of 6 to 19 tonnes per capita emissions of the major industrialised countries. In the European Union, CO2 emissions dropped by 3% to 7.5 tonnes per capita. The United States remains one of the largest emitters of CO2, with 17.3 tones per capita, despite a decline due to the recession in 2008-2009, high oil prices and an increased share of natural gas.

These are the main findings of the annual report ‘Trends in global CO2emissions’, released July 19 by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL).

Based on recent results from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) and latest statistics on energy use and relevant activities such as gas flaring and cement production, the report shows that global CO2 emissions continued to grow in 2011, despite reductions in OECD countries. Weak economic conditions, a mild winter, and energy savings stimulated by high oil prices led to a decrease of 3% in CO2 emissions in the European Union and of 2% in both the United States and Japan. Emissions from OECD countries now account for only one third of global CO2 emissions — the same share as that of China and India combined, where emissions increased by 9% and 6% respectively in 2011. Economic growth in China led to significant increases in fossil fuel consumption driven by construction and infrastructure expansion. The growth in cement and steel production caused China’s domestic coal consumption to increase by 9.7%.

The 3% increase in global CO2 emissions in 2011 is above the past decade’s average annual increase of 2.7%, with a decrease in 2008 and a surge of 5% in 2010. The top emitters contributing to the 34 billion tonnes of CO2 emitted globally in 2011 are: China (29%), the United States (16%), the European Union (11%), India (6%), the Russian Federation (5%) and Japan (4%).

Cumulative CO2 emissions call for action

An estimated cumulative global total of 420 billion tonnes of CO2 were emitted between 2000 and 2011 due to human activities, including deforestation. Scientific literature suggests that limiting the rise in average global temperature to 2°C above pre-industrial levels — the target internationally adopted in UN climate negotiations — is possible only if cumulative CO2emissions in the period 2000-2050 do not exceed 1 000 to 1 500 billion tonnes. If the current global trend of increasing CO2emissions continues, cumulative emissions will surpass this limit within the next two decades.

Fortunately, this trend is being mitigated by the expansion of renewable energy supplies, especially solar and wind energy and biofuels. The global share of these so-called modern renewables, which exclude hydropower, is growing at an accelerated speed and quadrupled from 1992 to 2011. This potentially represents about 0.8 billion tonnes of CO2emissions avoided as a result of using renewable energy supplies in 2011, which is close to Germany’s total CO2emissions in 2011.

“Trends in global CO2 emissions” report:http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/CO2REPORT2012.pdf

Society’s Response to Climate Change Is Critical (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (July 18, 2012) — Lancaster University (UK) scientists have proposed a new way of considering society’s reactions to global warming by linking societal actions to temperature change.

Using this framework to analyse climate change policies aimed at avoiding dangerous climate change, they suggest that society will have to become fifty times more responsive to global temperature change than it has been since 1990.

The researchers, Dr Andy Jarvis, Dr David Leedal and Professor Nick Hewitt from the Lancaster Environment Centre, also show that if global energy use continues to grow as it has done historically, society would have to up its decarbonization efforts from its historic (160 year) value of 0.6% per year to 13% per year.

Dr Andy Jarvis said: “In order to avoid dangerous climate change, society will have to become much more responsive to the risks and damages that growth in global greenhouse gas emissions impose.”

The research, published in Nature Climate Change on 15 July has found that the global growth of new renewable sources of energy since 1990 constitutes a climate-society feedback of a quarter percent per year in the growth rate of CO2 emissions per degree temperature rise.

Professor Nick Hewitt said “If left unmanaged, the climate damages that we experience will motivate society to act to a greater or lesser degree. This could either amplify the growth in greenhouse gas emissions as we repair these damages or dampen them through loss of economic performance. Both are unpredictable and potentially dangerous.”

Social Identification, Not Obedience, Might Motivate Unspeakable Acts (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (July 18, 2012) — What makes soldiers abuse prisoners? How could Nazi officials condemn thousands of Jews to gas chamber deaths? What’s going on when underlings help cover up a financial swindle? For years, researchers have tried to identify the factors that drive people to commit cruel and brutal acts and perhaps no one has contributed more to this knowledge than psychological scientist Stanley Milgram.

Just over 50 years ago, Milgram embarked on what were to become some of the most famous studies in psychology. In these studies, which ostensibly examined the effects of punishment on learning, participants were assigned the role of “teacher” and were required to administer shocks to a “learner” that increased in intensity each time the learner gave an incorrect answer. As Milgram famously found, participants were willing to deliver supposedly lethal shocks to a stranger, just because they were asked to do so.

Researchers have offered many possible explanations for the participants’ behavior and the take-home conclusion that seems to have emerged is that people cannot help but obey the orders of those in authority, even when those orders go to the extremes.

This obedience explanation, however, fails to account for a very important aspect of the studies: why, and under what conditions, people did not obey the experimenter.

In a new article published in Perspectives on Psychological Science, a journal of the Association for Psychological Science, researchers Stephen Reicher of the University of St. Andrews and Alexander Haslam and Joanne Smith of the University of Exeter propose a new way of looking at Milgram’s findings.

The researchers hypothesized that, rather than obedience to authority, the participants’ behavior might be better explained by their patterns of social identification. They surmised that conditions that encouraged identification with the experimenter (and, by extension, the scientific community) led participants to follow the experimenters’ orders, while conditions that encouraged identification with the learner (and the general community) led participants to defy the experimenters’ orders.

As the researchers explain, this suggests that participants’ willingness to engage in destructive behavior is “a reflection not of simple obedience, but of active identification with the experimenter and his mission.”

Reicher, Haslam, and Smith wanted to examine whether participants’ willingness to administer shocks across variants of the Milgram paradigm could be predicted by the extent to which the variant emphasized identification with the experimenter and identification with the learner.

For their study, the researchers recruited two different groups of participants. The expert group included 32 academic social psychologists from two British universities and on Australian university. The nonexpert group included 96 first-year psychology students who had not yet learned about the Milgram studies.

All participants were read a short description of Milgram’s baseline study and they were then given details about 15 variants of the study. For each variant, they were asked to indicate the extent to which that variant would lead participants to identify with the experimenter and the scientific community and the extent to which it would lead them to identify with the learner and the general community.

The results of the study confirmed the researchers’ hypotheses. Identification with the experimenter was a very strong positive predictor of the level of obedience displayed in each variant. On the other hand, identification with the learner was a strong negative predictor of the level of obedience. The relative identification score (identification with experimenter minus identification with learner) was also a very strong predictor of the level of obedience.

According to the authors, these new findings suggest that we need to rethink obedience as the standard explanation for why people engage in cruel and brutal behavior. This new research “moves us away from a dominant viewpoint that has prevailed within and beyond the academic world for nearly half a century — a viewpoint suggesting that people engage in barbaric acts because they have little insight into what they are doing and conform slavishly to the will of authority,” they write.

These new findings suggest that social identification provides participants with a moral compass and motivates them to act as followers. This followership, as the authors point out, is not thoughtless — “it is the endeavor of committed subjects.”

Looking at the findings this way has several advantages, Reicher, Haslam, and Smith argue. First, it mirrors recent historical assessments suggesting that functionaries in brutalizing regimes — like the Nazi bureaucrat Adolf Eichmann — do much more than merely follow orders. And it simultaneously accounts for why participants are more likely to follow orders under certain conditions than others.

The researchers acknowledge that the methodology used in this research is somewhat unorthodox — the most direct way to examine the question of social identification would involve recreating the Milgram paradigm and varying different aspects of the paradigm to manipulate social identification with both experimenter and learner. But this kind of research involves considerable ethical challenges. The purpose of the article, the authors say, is to provide a strong theoretical case for such research, “so that work to address the critical question of why (and not just whether) people still prove willing to participate in brutalizing acts can move forward.”

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Most People Will Administer Shocks When Prodded By ‘Authority Figure’

ScienceDaily (Dec. 22, 2008) — Nearly 50 years after one of the most controversial behavioral experiments in history, a social psychologist has found that people are still just as willing to administer what they believe are painful electric shocks to others when urged on by an authority figure.

Jerry M. Burger, PhD, replicated one of the famous obedience experiments of the late Stanley Milgram, PhD, and found that compliance rates in the replication were only slightly lower than those found by Milgram. And, like Milgram, he found no difference in the rates of obedience between men and women.

Burger’s findings are reported in the January issue of American Psychologist. The issue includes a special section reflecting on Milgram’s work 24 years after his death on Dec. 20, 1984, and analyzing Burger’s study.

“People learning about Milgram’s work often wonder whether results would be any different today,” said Burger, a professor at Santa Clara University. “Many point to the lessons of the Holocaust and argue that there is greater societal awareness of the dangers of blind obedience. But what I found is the same situational factors that affected obedience in Milgram’s experiments still operate today.”

Stanley Milgram was an assistant professor at Yale University in 1961 when he conducted the first in a series of experiments in which subjects – thinking they were testing the effect of punishment on learning – administered what they believed were increasingly powerful electric shocks to another person in a separate room. An authority figure conducting the experiment prodded the first person, who was assigned the role of “teacher” to continue shocking the other person, who was playing the role of “learner.” In reality, both the authority figure and the learner were in on the real intent of the experiment, and the imposing-looking shock generator machine was a fake.

Milgram found that, after hearing the learner’s first cries of pain at 150 volts, 82.5 percent of participants continued administering shocks; of those, 79 percent continued to the shock generator’s end, at 450 volts. In Burger’s replication, 70 percent of the participants had to be stopped as they continued past 150 volts – a difference that was not statistically significant.

“Nearly four out of five of Milgram’s participants who continued after 150 volts went all the way to the end of the shock generator,” Burger said. “Because of this pattern, knowing how participants react at the 150-volt juncture allows us to make a reasonable guess about what they would have done if we had continued with the complete procedure.”

Milgram’s techniques have been debated ever since his research was first published. As a result, there is now an ethics codes for psychologists and other controls have been placed on experimental research that have effectively prevented any precise replications of Milgram’s work. “No study using procedures similar to Milgram’s has been published in more than three decades,” according to Burger.

Burger implemented a number of safeguards that enabled him to win approval for the work from his university’s institutional review board. First, he determined that while Milgram allowed his subjects to administer “shocks” of up to 450 volts in 15-volt increments, 150 volts appeared to be the critical point where nearly every participant paused and indicated reluctance to continue. Thus, 150 volts was the top range in Burger’s study.

In addition, Burger screened out any potential subjects who had taken more than two psychology courses in college or who indicated familiarity with Milgram’s research. A clinical psychologist also interviewed potential subjects and eliminated anyone who might have a negative reaction to the study procedure.

In Burger’s study, participants were told at least three times that they could withdraw from the study at any time and still receive the $50 payment. Also, these participants were given a lower-voltage sample shock to show the generator was real – 15 volts, as compared to 45 volts administered by Milgram.

Several of the psychologists writing in the same issue of American Psychologist questioned whether Burger’s study is truly comparable to Milgram’s, although they acknowledge its usefulness.

“…there are simply too many differences between this study and the earlier obedience research to permit conceptually precise and useful comparisons,” wrote Arthur G. Miller, PhD, of Miami University in Oxford, Ohio.

“Though direct comparisons of absolute levels of obedience cannot be made between the 150-volt maximum of Burger’s research design and Milgram’s 450-volt maximum, Burger’s ‘obedience lite’ procedures can be used to explore further some of the situational variables studied by Milgram, as well as look at additional variables,” wrote Alan C. Elms, PhD, of the University of California, Davis. Elms assisted Milgram in the summer of 1961.

In Rousseau’s footsteps: David Graeber and the anthropology of unequal society (The Memory Bank)

http://thememorybank.co.uk

By Keith Hart

July 4, 2012, 11:14 pm

A review of David Graeber Debt: The first 5,000 years (Melville House, New York, 2011, 534 pages)

Debt is everywhere today. What is “sovereign debt” and why must Greece pay up, but not the United States? Who decides that the national debt will be repaid through austerity programmes rather than job-creation schemes? Why do the banks get bailed out, while students and home-owners are forced to repay loans? The very word debt speaks of unequal power; and the world economic crisis since 2008 has exposed this inequality more than any other since the 1930s. David Graeber has written a searching book that aims to place our current concerns within the widest possible framework of anthropology and world history. He starts from a question: why do we feel that we must repay our debts? This is a moral issue, not an economic one. In market logic, the cost of bad loans should be met by creditors as a discipline on their lending practices. But paying back debts is good for the powerful few, whereas the mass of debtors have at times sought and won relief from them.

What is debt? According to Graeber, it is an obligation with a figure attached and hence debt is inseparable from money. This book devotes a lot of attention to where money comes from and what it does. States and markets each play a role in its creation, but money’s form has fluctuated historically between virtual credit and metal currency. Above all Graeber’s enquiry is framed by our unequal world as a whole. He resists the temptation to offer quick remedies for collective suffering, since this would be inconsistent with the timescale of his argument. Nevertheless, readers are offered a worldview that clearly takes the institutional pillars of our societies to be rotten and deserving of replacement. It is a timely and popular view. Debt: The first 5,000 years is an international best-seller. The German translation recently sold 30,000 copies in the first two weeks.

I place the book here in a classical tradition that I call “the anthropology of unequal society” (Hart 2006), before considering what makes David Graeber a unique figure in contemporary intellectual politics. A summary of the book’s main arguments is followed by a critical assessment, focusing on the notion of a “human economy”.

The anthropology of unequal society

Modern anthropology was born to serve the coming democratic revolution against the Old Regime. A government by the people for the people should be based on what they have in common, their “human nature” or “natural rights”. Writers from John Locke (1690) to Karl Marx (1867) identified the contemporary roots of inequality with money’s social dominance, a feature that we now routinely call “capitalism”. For Locke money was a store of wealth that allowed some individuals to accumulate property far beyond their own immediate needs. For Marx “capital” had become the driving force subordinating the work of the many to machines controlled by a few. In both cases, accumulation dissolved the old forms of society, but it also generated the conditions for its own replacement by a more just society, a “commonwealth” or “communism”. It was, however, the philosophers of the eighteenth-century liberal enlightenment who developed a systematic approach to anthropology as an intellectual source for remaking the modern world.

Following Locke’s example, they wanted to found democratic societies in place of the class system typical of agrarian civilizations. How could arbitrary social inequality be abolished and a more equal society founded on their common human nature? Anthropology was the means of answering that question. The great Victorian synthesizers, such as Morgan, Tylor and Frazer, stood on the shoulders of predecessors motivated by an urgent desire to make world society less unequal. Kant’s Anthropology from a Pragmatic Point of View, a best-seller when published in 1798, was the culmination of that Enlightenment project; but it played almost no part in the subsequent history of the discipline. The main source for nineteenth-century anthropology was rather Jean-Jacques Rousseau.  He revolutionized our understanding of politics, education, sexuality and the self in four books published in the 1760s: The Social ContractEmileJulie and The Confessions. He was forced to flee for his life from hit squads encouraged by the church. But he made his reputation earlier through two discourses of which the second, Discourse on the Origins and Foundations of Inequality among Men (1754), deserves to be seen as the source for an anthropology that combines the critique of unequal society with a revolutionary politics of democratic emancipation.

Rousseau was concerned here not with individual variations in natural endowments which we can do little about, but with the conventional inequalities of wealth, honour and the capacity to command obedience which can be changed. In order to construct a model of human equality, he imagined a pre-social state of nature, a sort of hominid phase of human evolution in which men were solitary, but healthy, happy and above all free. This freedom was metaphysical, anarchic and personal: original human beings had free will, they were not subject to rules of any kind and they had no superiors. At some point humanity made the transition to what Rousseau calls “nascent society”, a prolonged period whose economic base can best be summarized as hunter-gathering with huts. This second phase represents his ideal of life in society close to nature.

The rot set in with the invention of agriculture or, as Rousseau puts it, wheat and iron. Here he contradicted both Hobbes and Locke. The formation of a civil order (the state) was preceded by a war of all against all marked by the absence of law, which Rousseau insisted was the result of social development, not an original state of nature. Cultivation of the land led to incipient property institutions which, far from being natural, contained the seeds of entrenched inequality. Their culmination awaited the development of political society. He believed that this new social contract was probably arrived at by consensus, but it was a fraudulent one in that the rich thereby gained legal sanction for transmitting unequal property rights in perpetuity. From this inauspicious beginning, political society then usually moved, via a series of revolutions, through three stages:

The establishment of law and the right of property was the first stage, the institution of magistrates the second and the transformation of legitimate into arbitrary power the third and last stage. Thus the status of rich and poor was authorized by the first epoch, that of strong and weak by the second and by the third that of master and slave, which is the last degree of inequality and the stage to which all the others finally lead, until new revolutions dissolve the government altogether and bring it back to legitimacy (Rousseau 1984:131).

One-man-rule closes the circle. “It is here that all individuals become equal again because they are nothing, here where subjects have no longer any law but the will of the master”(Ibid: 134). For Rousseau, the growth of inequality was just one aspect of human alienation in civil society. We need to return from division of labour and dependence on the opinion of others to subjective self-sufficiency. His subversive parable ends with a ringing indictment of economic inequality which could well serve as a warning to our world. “It is manifestly contrary to the law of nature, however defined… that a handful of people should gorge themselves with superfluities while the hungry multitude goes in want of necessities” (Ibid: 137).

Lewis H. Morgan (1877) drew on Rousseau’s model for his own fiercely democratic synthesis of human history, Ancient Society, which likewise used an evolutionary classification that we now call bands, tribes and states, each stage more unequal than the one before.  Morgan’s work is normally seen as the launch of modern anthropology proper because of his ability to enrol contemporary ethnographic observations of the Iroquois in an analysis of the historical structures underlying western civilization’s origins in Greece and Rome. Marx and Engels enthusiastically took up Morgan’s work as confirmation of their own critique of the state and capitalism; and the latter, drawing on Marx’s extensive annotations ofAncient Society, made the argument more accessible as The Origin of the Family, Private Property and the State (1884). Engels’s greater emphasis on gender inequality made this a fertile source for the feminist movement in the 1960s and after.

The traditional home of inequality is supposed to be India and Andre Beteille, in Inequality among Men (1977) and other books, has made the subject his special domain, merging social anthropology with comparative sociology. In the United States, Leslie White at Michigan and Julian Steward at Columbia led teams, including Wolf, Sahlins, Service, Harris and Mintz, who took the evolution of the state and class society as their chief focus. Probably the single most impressive work coming out of this American school was Eric Wolf’s Europe and the People without History (1982). But one man tried to redo Morgan in a single book and that was Claude Lévi-Strauss in The Elementary Structures of Kinship (1949). In Tristes Tropiques (1955), Lévi-Strauss acknowledged Rousseau as his master. The aim of Elementary Structures was to revisit Morgan’s three-stage theory of social evolution, drawing on a new and impressive canvas, “the Siberia-Assam axis” and all points southeast as far as the Australian desert. Lévi-Strauss took as his motor of development the forms of marriage exchange and the logic of exogamy. The “restricted reciprocity” of egalitarian bands gave way to the unstable hierarchies of “generalized reciprocity” typical of the Highland Burma tribes. The stratified states of the region turned inwards to endogamy, to the reproduction of class differences and the negation of social reciprocity.

Jack Goody has tried to lift our profession out of a myopic ethnography into an engagement with world history that went out of fashion with the passing of the Victorian founders. Starting with Production and Reproduction (1976), he has produced a score of books over the last three decades investigating why Sub-Saharan Africa differs so strikingly from the pre-industrial societies of Europe and Asia, with a later focus on refuting the West’s claim to being exceptional, especially when compared with Asia (Hart 2006, 2011).  The common thread of Goody’s compendious work links him through the Marxist pre-historian Gordon Childe (1954) to Morgan-Engels and ultimately Rousseau. The key to understanding social forms lies in production, which for us means machine production. Civilization or human culture is largely shaped by the means of communication — once writing, now an array of mechanized forms. The site of social struggles is property, now principally conflicts over intellectual property. And his central issue of reproduction has never been more salient than at a time when the aging citizens of rich countries depend on the proliferating mass of young people out there. Kinship needs to be reinvented too.

David Graeber: the first 50 years

Graeber brings his own unique combination of interests and engagements to renewing this “anthropology of unequal society”. Who is he? He spent the 1960s as the child of working-class intellectuals and activists in New York and was a teenager in the 1970s, which turned out to be the hinge decade of our times, leading to a “neoliberal” counter-revolution against post-war social democracy. This decade was framed at one end by the US dollar being taken off the gold standard in 1971 and at the other by a massive interest rate increase in 1979 induced by a second oil price hike. The world economy has been depressed ever since, especially at its western core. Graeber says that he embraced anarchism at sixteen.

The debt crisis of the 1980s was triggered by irresponsible lending of the oil surplus by western banks to Third World kleptocrats (Hart 2000: 142-143) and by the new international regime of high interest rates. In market theory, bad loans are supposed to discipline lenders, but the IMF and World Bank insisted on every penny of added interest being repaid by the governments of poor countries. This was also the time when structural adjustment policies forced those governments to open up their national economies to the free flow of money and commodities, with terrible consequences for public welfare programmes and jobs. If the anti-colonial revolution inspired my generation in the 1960s, Graeber’s internationalism was shaped by this wholesale looting of the successor states. He took an active part in demonstrations against this new phase of “financial globalization”, a phenomenon now often referred to as the “alter-globalization movement” (Pleyers 2010), but he and his fellow activists call it the “global justice movement”. Its public impact peaked in the years following the financial crisis of 1997-98 (involving Southeast Asia, Russia, Brazil and the failure of a US hedge fund, Long-Term Capital Management), notably through mass mobilizations in Seattle, Genoa and elsewhere. In the Debt book, Graeber claims that they took on the IMF and won.

David Graeber received a doctorate in anthropology from the University of Chicago based on ethnographic and historical research on a former slave village in Madagascar. This was eventually published as a long and exemplary monograph, Lost People: Magic and the legacy of slavery in Madagascar (Graeber 2007a). The history of the slave trade, colonialism and the post-colony figure prominently in how he illustrates global inequality through a focus on debt. Before that, he published a strong collection of essays on value, Toward an Anthropological Theory of Value: The false coin of our own dreams (Graeber 2001), in which he sought to relate economic value (especially value as measured impersonally by money) and the values that shape our subjectivity in society. This hinged on revisiting both Karl Marx and Marcel Mauss, providing the main account in English of how the latter’s cooperative socialism shaped his famous work on the gift (Mauss 1925). A theme of both books is the role of magic and money fetishism in sustaining unequal society.

Politics forms a central strand of Graeber’s work, with four books published so far and more in the works: Fragments of an Anarchist Anthropology (2004), Possibilities: Essays on hierarchy, rebellion, and desire (2007b), Direct Action: An ethnography (2009a) and Revolutions in Reverse: Essays on politics, violence, art, and imagination (2011c). These titles reveal a range of political interests that take in violence, aesthetics and libido. He insists on the “elective affinity” between anthropological theory and method and an anarchist programme of resistance, rebellion and revolution; and this emphasis on “society against the state” makes him a worthy successor to Pierre Clastres (1974). Graeber’s academic career has been fitful, most notoriously when he was “let go” by Yale despite his obvious talent and productivity. This fed rumours about the academic consequences of his political activities. These have led to numerous brushes with the police, but so far not to prolonged incarceration, although his inability to find a job in American universities could be seen as a form of exile.

Debt: The first 5,000 years was published in summer 2011 and Graeber began a year’s sabbatical leave from his teaching job in London by moving to New York, where he became an ubiquitous presence in the print media, television and blogs. In August-September he helped form the first New York City General Assembly which spawned the Occupy Wall Street movement. He has been credited with being the author of that movement’s slogan, “We are the 99%”, and helped to give it an anarchist political style. OWS generated a wave of imitations in the United States and around the world, known collectively as “the Occupy movement”, inviting comparison with the “Arab Spring” and Madrid’s Los Indignados in what seemed then to be a global uprising. Some shared features of this series of political events, such as an emphasis on non-violence, consensual decision-making and the avoidance of sectarian division, evoke Jean-Jacques Rousseau’s idea of the “general will”; and it is not wholly fanciful to compare David Graeber’s career so far with his great predecessor’s.

Graeber and Rousseau both detested the mainstream institutions of the world they live in and devoted their intellectual efforts to building revolutionary alternatives. This means not being satisfied with reporting how the world is, but rather exploring the dialectic linking the actual to the possible. This in turn implies being willing to mix established genres of research and writing and to develop new ones. Both are prolific writers with an accessible prose style aimed at reaching a mass audience. Both achieved unusual fame for an intellectual and their political practice got them into trouble. Both suffered intimidation, neglect and exile for their beliefs. Both attract admiration and loathing in equal measure. Their originality is incontestable, yet each can at times be silly. There is no point in considering their relative significance. The personal parallels that I point to here reinforce my claim that Graeber’s Debt book should be seen as a specific continuation of that “anthropology of unequal society” begun by Rousseau two and a half centuries ago.

Debt: the argument

Much of the contemporary world revolves round the claims we make on each other and on things: ownership, obligations, contracts and payment of taxes, wages, rents, fees etc. David Graeber’s book, Debt: The first 5,000 years, aims to illuminate these questions through a focus on debt seen in very wide historical perspective. It is of course a central issue in global politics today, at every level of society. Every day sees another example of a class struggle between debtors and creditors to shape the distribution of costs after a long credit boom went dramatically bust.

We might be indebted to God, the sovereign or our parents for the gift of life, but Graeber rightly insists that the social logic of debt is revealed most clearly when money is involved. He cites approvingly an early twentieth-century writer who insisted that “money is debt”. This book of over 500 pages is rich in argument and knowledge. The notes and references are compendious, ranging over five millennia of the main Eurasian civilizations (ancient Mesopotamia, Egypt and the Mediterranean, medieval Europe, China, India and Islam) and the ethnography of stateless societies in Africa, the Americas and the Pacific. Its twelve chapters are framed by an introduction to our moral confusion concerning debt and a concluding sketch of the present rupture in world history that began in the early 1970s. Graeber’s case is founded on anthropological and historical comparison more than his grasp of contemporary political economy, although he has plenty to say in passing about that. There is also a current of populist culture running through the book and this is reinforced by a prose style aimed at closing the gap between author and reader that his formidable scholarship might otherwise open up.

Perhaps this aspect of the book may be illustrated by introducing a recent short film. Paul Grignon’s Money as Debt (2006, 47 minutes) — an underground hit in activist circles — seeks to explain where money comes from. Most of the money in circulation is issued by banks whenever they make a loan. The real basis of money, the film claims, is thus our signature whenever we promise to repay a debt. The banks create that money by a stroke of the pen and the promise is then bought and sold in increasingly complex ways. The total debt incurred by government, corporations, small businesses and consumers spirals continuously upwards since interest must be paid on it all. Although the general idea is an old one, it has taken on added salience at a time when the supply of money, which could once plausibly be represented as public currency in circulation, has been overtaken by the creation of private debt.

The film’s attempt to demystify money is admirable, but its message is misleading.  Debt and credit are two sides of the same coin, the one evoking passivity in the face of power, the other individual empowerment. The origin of money in France and Germany is considered to be debt, whereas in the United States and Britain it is traditionally conceived of as credit. Either term alone is loaded, missing the dialectical character of the relations involved. Money as Debt demonizes the banks and interest in particular, letting the audience off the hook by not showing the active role most of us play in sustaining the system. Money today is issued by a dispersed global network of economic institutions of many kinds; and the norm of economic growth is fed by a widespread desire for self-improvement, not just by bank interest.

David Graeber offers a lot more than this, of course; but his book also feeds off popular currents too, which is not surprising given how much time he spends outside the classroom and his study. His analytical framework is spelled out in great detail over six chapters. The first two tackle the origins of money in barter and “primordial debt” respectively. He shows, forcefully and elegantly, how implausible the standard liberal origin myth of money as a medium of exchange is; but he also rejects as a nationalist myth the main opposing theory that traces money’s origins as a means of payment and unit of account to state power. In the first case he follows Polanyi (1944), but by distancing himself from the second, he highlights the interdependence of states and markets in money’s origins.  A short chapter shows that money was always both a commodity and a debt-token (“the two sides of the coin”, Hart 1986), giving rise to a lot of political and moral contestation, especially in the ancient world. Following Nietzsche, Graeber argues that money introduced for the first time a measure of the unequal relations between buyer and seller, creditor and debtor. Whereas Rousseau traced inequality to the invention of property, he locates the roots of human bondage, slavery, tribute and organized violence in debt relations. The contradictions of indebtedness, fed by money and markets, led the first world religions to articulate notions of freedom and redemption in response to escalating class conflict between creditors and debtors, often involving calls for debt cancellation.

The author now lays out his positive story to counter the one advanced by mainstream liberal economics. “A brief treatise on the moral grounds of economic relations” makes explicit his critique of the attempt to construct “the economy” as a sphere separate from society in general. This owes something to Polanyi’s (1957) universal triad of distributive mechanisms – reciprocity, redistribution and market – here identified as “everyday communism”, hierarchy and reciprocity. By the first Graeber means a human capacity for sharing or “baseline sociality”; the second is sometimes confused with the third, since unequal relations are often represented as an exchange – you give me your crops in return for not being beaten up. The difference between hierarchy and reciprocity is that debt is permanent in the first case, but temporary in the second. The western middle classes train their children to say please and thank you as a way of limiting the debt incurred by being given something. All three principles are present everywhere, but their relative emphasis is coloured by dominant economic forms. Thus “communism” is indispensable to modern work practices, but capitalism is a lousy way of harnessing our human capacity for cooperation.

The next two chapters introduce what is for me the main idea of the book, the contrast between “human economies” and those dominated by money and markets (Graeber prefers to call them “commercial economies” and sometimes “capitalism”). First he identifies the independent characteristics of human economies and then shows what happens when they are forcefully incorporated into the economic orbit of larger “civilisations”, including our own. This is to some extent a great divide theory of history, although, as Mauss would insist, elements of human economy persist in capitalist societies. There is a sense in which “human economies” are a world we have lost, but might recover after the revolution. Graeber is at pains to point out that these societies are not necessarily more humane, just that “they are economic systems primarily concerned not with the accumulation of wealth, but with the creation, destruction, and rearranging of human beings” (2011a: 130). They use money, but mainly as “social currencies” whose aim is to maintain relations between people rather than to purchase things.

“In a human economy, each person is unique and of incomparable value, because each is a unique nexus of relations with others” (Ibid: 158). Yet their money forms make it possible to treat people as quantitatively identical in exchange and that requires a measure of violence. Brutality — not just conceptual, but physical too — is omnipresent, more in some cases than others. Violence is inseparable from money and debt, even in the most “human” of economies, where ripping people out of their familiar context is commonplace. This, however, gets taken to another level when they are drawn into systems like the Atlantic slave trade or the western colonial empires of yesteryear. The following extended reflection on slavery and freedom — a pair that Graeber sees as being driven by a culture of honour and indebtedness — culminates in the ultimate contradiction underpinning modern liberal economics, a worldview that conceives of individuals as being socially isolated in a way that could only be prepared for by a long history of enslaving conquered peoples. Since we cannot easily embrace this account of our own history, it is not surprising that we confuse morality and power when thinking about debt.

So far, Graeber has relied heavily on anthropological material, especially from African societies, to illustrate the world that the West transformed, although his account of money’s origins draws quite heavily on the example of ancient Mesopotamia. Now he formalizes his theory of money to organize a compendious review of world history in four stages. These are: the era from c.3000 BC that saw the first urban civilizations; the “Axial Age” which he, rather unusually, dates from 800BC to 600AD; the Middle Ages (600-1450AD); and the age of “the great capitalist empires”, from 1450AD to the US dollar’s symbolic rupture with the gold standard in 1971. As this last date suggests, the periodization relies heavily on historical oscillations between broad types of money. Graeber calls these “credit” and “bullion”, that is, money as a virtual measure of personal relations, like IOUs, and as currency or impersonal things made from precious metals for circulation.

Money started out as a unit of account, administered by institutions such as temples and banks, as well as states, largely as a way of measuring debt relations between people. Coinage was introduced in the first millennium as part of a complex linking warfare, mercenary soldiers, slavery, looting, mines, trade and the provisioning of armies on the move. Graeber calls this “the military-coinage-slavery complex” of which Alexander the Great, for example, was a master. Hence our word, “soldier”, refers to his pay. The so-called “dark ages” offered some relief from this regime and for most of the medieval period, metal currencies were in very short supply and money once again took the dominant form of virtual credit. India, China and the Islamic world are enlisted here to supplement what we know of Europe. But then the discovery of the new world opened up the phase we are familiar with from the last half-millennium, when western imperialism revived the earlier tradition of warfare and slavery lubricated by bullion.

The last four decades are obviously transitional, but the recent rise of virtual credit money suggests the possibility of another long swing of history away from the principles that underpinned the world the West made. It could be a multi-polar world, more like the middle ages than the last two centuries. It could offer more scope for “human economies” or at least “social currencies”. The debt crisis might provoke revolutions and then, who knows, debt cancellation along the lines of the ancient jubilee. Perhaps the whole institutional complex based on states, money and markets or capitalism will be replaced by forms of society more directly responsive to ordinary people and their capacity for “everyday communism”.

All of this is touched on in the final chapter. But Graeber leaves these “policy conclusions” deliberately vague. His aim in this book has been to draw his readers into a vision of human history that runs counter to what makes their social predicament supposedly inevitable. It is a vision inspired in part by his profession as an anthropologist, in part by his political engagement as an activist. Both commitments eschew drawing up programmes for others to follow. Occupy Wall Street has been criticized for its failure to enumerate a list of “demands”. No doubt much the same could be said of this book; but then readers, including this reviewer, will be inspired by it in concrete ways to imagine possibilities that its author could not have envisaged.

Towards a human economy

David Graeber and I came up with the term “human economy” independently during the last decade (Graeber 2009b, 2011a; Hart 2008, Hart, Laville and Cattani 2010). The editors of The Human Economy: A citizen’s guide distanced ourselves, in the introduction and our editorial approach, from any “revolutionary” eschatology that suggested society had reached the end of something and would soon be launched on a quite new trajectory. The idea of a “human economy” drew attention to the fact that people do a lot more for themselves than an exclusive focus on the dominant economic institutions would suggest. Against a singular notion of the economy as “capitalism”, we argued that all societies combine a plurality of economic forms and several of these are distributed across history, even if their combination is strongly coloured by the dominant economic form in particular times and places.

For example, in his famous essay on The Gift (1925), Marcel Mauss showed that other economic principles were present in capitalist societies and that understanding this would provide a sounder basis for building non-capitalist alternatives than the Bolshevik revolution’s attempt to break with markets and money entirely. Karl Polanyi too, in his various writings, insisted that the human economy throughout history combined a number of mechanisms of which the market was only one. We argued therefore that the idea of radical transformation of an economy conceived of monolithically as capitalism into its opposite was an inappropriate way to approach economic change. We should rather pay attention to the full range of what people are doing already and build economic initiatives around giving these a new direction and emphasis, instead of supposing that economic change has to be reinvented from scratch. Although this looks like a gradualist approach to economic improvement, its widespread adoption would have revolutionary consequences.

David Graeber’a anarchist politics inform his economic analysis; and he has always taken an anti-statist and anti-capitalist position, with markets and money usually being subsumed under the concept of capitalism. That is, he sees the future as being based on the opposite of our capitalist states. The core of his politics is “direct action” which he has practised and written about as an ethnographer (Graeber 2009a). In The Human Economy, we argued that people everywhere rely on a wide range of organizations in their economic lives: markets, nation-states, corporations, cities, voluntary associations, families, virtual networks, informal economies, crime. We should be looking for a more progressive mix of these things. We can’t afford to turn our backs on institutions that have helped humanity make the transition to modern world society. Large-scale bureaucracies co-exist with varieties of popular self-organization and we have to make them work together rather than at cross-purposes, as they often do now.

Graeber also believes, as we have seen, that economic life everywhere is based on a plural combination of moral principles which take on a different complexion when organized by dominant forms. Thus, helping each other as equals is essential to capitalist societies, but capitalism distorts and marginalizes this human propensity. Yet he appears to expect a radical rupture with capitalist states fairly soon and this is reflected in a stages theory of history, with categories to match. At first sight, these positions (let’s call them “reform” and “revolution”) are incompatible, but recent political developments (the “Arab Spring” and Occupy movements of 2011, however indeterminate their immediate outcomes) point to the need to transcend such an opposition.

The gap between our approaches to making the economy human is therefore narrowing. Even so, there are differences of theory and method that point to some residual reservations I have about the Debt book. The first of these concerns Graeber’s preference for lumping together states, money, markets, debt and capitalism, along with violence, war and slavery as their habitual bedfellows. Money and markets have redemptive qualities that in my view (Hart 2000) could be put to progressive economic ends in non-capitalist forms; nor do I imagine that modern institutions such as states, corporations and bureaucracy will soon die away. Anti-capitalism as a revolutionary strategy begs the question of the plurality of modern economic institutions. As Mauss showed (Hart 2007), human economies exist in the cracks of capitalist societies. David Graeber seems to agree, at least when it comes to finding “everyday communism” there and, by refusing to sanitize “human economies” in their pristine form, he modifies the categorical and historical division separating them and commercial economies. Revolutionary binaries seem to surface at various points in his book, but an underlying tendency to discern continuity in human economic practices is just as much a feature of David Graeber’s anthropological vision.

An argument of Debt’s scope hasn’t been made by a professional anthropologist for the best part of a century, certainly not one with as much contemporary relevance. The discipline largely abandoned “conjectural history” in the twentieth century in order to embrace the narrower local perspectives afforded by ethnographic fieldwork. Works of broad comparison such as Wolf’s and Goody’s were the exception to this trend. Inevitably Graeber’s methods will come under scrutiny, not just from fellow professionals, but from the general public too. (He tells me that academics don’t read footnotes any more, but laymen do). To this reader, the first half of the book – which relies heavily on ethnographic sources to spell out the argument — is more systematic, in terms of both analytical coherence and documentation, than the second, concerned as it is with fleshing out his cycles of history. In either case, little attempt is made to analyse contemporary political economy, although Graeber makes more explicit reference to this than, for example does Mauss in The Gift, where readers’ understanding of capitalist markets is taken for granted. Nowhere in the book is any reference made to the digital revolution in communications of our times and its scope to transform economies, whether human or commercial (Hart 2000, 2005).

Well, that is not quite true, for the author does occasionally introduce anecdotes based on common or his personal knowledge. The problem is that many readers who take on trust what he has to say about ancient Mesopotamia or the Tiv, may find these stories contradicted by their own knowledge. It is something akin to “Time magazine syndrome”: we accept what Time has to say about the world in general until it impinges on what we know ourselves and then its credibility dissolves. Thus:

Apple Computers is a famous example: it was founded by (mostly Republican) computer engineers who broke from IBM in Silicon Valley in the 1980s, forming little democratic circles of twenty to forty people with their laptops in each other’s garages (Graeber 2011a: 96).

The veracity of this anecdote has been challenged by numerous Californian bloggers and the author’s scholarship with it. Graeber is aware of the pitfalls of making contemporary allusions. In the final chapter (Ibid: 362-3), he cleverly introduces an urban myth he often heard about the gold stored under the World Trade Centre and then (almost) rehabilitates that myth using documented sources. Fortunately, David Graeber has not been deterred by the pedants from crossing the line between academic and general knowledge in this book and his readers benefit immensely as a result. I contributed to the publisher’s blurb for this book and said that he is “the finest anthropological scholar I know”. I stand by that. The very long essay he recently published on the divine kingship of the Shilluk (Graeber 2011c) covers the same ground as a number of famous anthropologists from Frazer onwards, but with an unsurpassed range of scholarship, as well as a democratic political perspective. Inevitably in a book like this one, the fact police will catch him out sometimes. But it is a work of immense erudition and deserves to be celebrated as such.

Our world is still massively unequal and we may be entering a period of war and revolution comparable to the “Second Thirty Years War” of 1914-1945 which came after the last time that several decades of financial imperialism went bust. Capitalism itself sometimes seems today to have reverted to a norm of rent-seeking that resembles the arbitrary inequality of the Old Regime more than Victorian industry. The pursuit of economic democracy is more elusive than ever; yet humanity has also devised universal means of communication at last adequate to the expression of universal ideas. Jean-Jacques Rousseau would have leapt at the chance to make use of this opportunity and several illustrious successors did so in their own way during the last two centuries. We need an anthropology that rises to the challenge posed by our common human predicament today. No-one has done more to meet that challenge than David Graeber, in his work as a whole, but especially in this book.

References

Beteille, Andre   1977   Inequality among Men. Blackwell: Oxford.

Childe, V. Gordon   1954   What Happened in History. Penguin: Harmondsworth.

Clastres, Pierre    1989 (1974)    Society against the state: Essays in political anthropology. Zone Books: New York.

Engels, Friedrich   1972 (1884)   The Origin of the Family, Private Property, and the State. Pathfinder: New York.

Goody, Jack   1976   Production and Reproduction: A Comparative Study of the Domestic Domain. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.

Graeber, David   2001   Toward an Anthropological Theory of Value: The false coin of our own dreams. Palgrave: New York.

——    2004    Fragments of an Anarchist Anthropology. Prickly Paradigm: Chicago.

——    2007a   Lost People: Magic and the legacy of slavery in Madagascar. Indiana University Press: Bloomington IN.

——   2007b   Possibilities: Essays on hierarchy, rebellion, and desire . AK Press: Oakland CA.

——    2009a   Direct Action: An ethnography. AK Press: Baltimore MD.

——    2009b   Debt, Violence, and Impersonal Markets: Polanyian Meditations. In Chris Hann and K. Hart editors Market and Society: The Great Transformation today. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, 106-132.

——   2011a    Debt: The first 5,000 years. Melville House: New York.

——   2011b   The divine kingship of the Shilluk: On violence, utopia, and the human condition or elements for an archaeology of sovereignty, Hau: Journal of Ethnographic Theory 1.1: 1-62.

——   2011c   Revolutions in Reverse: Essays on politics, violence, art, and imagination. Autonomedia: New York.

Hann, Chris and K. Hart   2011   Economic Anthropology: History, ethnography, critique. Polity: Cambridge.

Hart, Keith   1986   Heads or tails? Two sides of the coin. Man 21 (3): 637–56.

——   2000   The Memory Bank: Money in an unequal world. Profile: London; republished in 2001 as Money in an Unequal World. Texere: New York.

—— 2005 The Hit Man’s Dilemma: Or business personal and impersonal. Prickly Paradigm: Chicago.

——   2006   Agrarian civilization and world society. In D. Olson and M. Cole (eds.), Technology, Literacy and the Evolution of Society: Implications of the work of Jack Goody. Lawrence Erlbaum: Mahwah, NJ, 29–48.

——   2007   Marcel Mauss: in pursuit of the whole – a review essay. Comparative Studies in Society and History 49 (2): 473–85.

——   2008   The human economy. ASAonline 1. http://www.theasa.org/publications/asaonline/articles/asaonline_0101.htm

——   2011   Jack Goody’s vision of world history and African development today (Jack Goody Lecture 2011). Halle/Saale: Max Planck Institute for Social Anthropology, Department II.

Hart, Keith, J-L. Laville and A. Cattani editors   2010   The Human Economy: A citizen’s guide. Polity: Cambridge.

Kant, Immanuel   2006   Anthropology from a Pragmatic Point of View. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.

Lévi-Strauss, Claude   1969 (1949)   The Elementary Structures of Kinship. Beacon: Boston.

——    1973 (1955) Tristes Tropiques. Cape: London.

Locke, John   1960 (1690)   Two Treatises of Government. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.

Marx, Karl   1970 (1867)   Capital Volume 1. Lawrence and Wishart: London.

Mauss, Marcel   1990 (1925)  The Gift: The form and reason for exchange in archaic societies. Routledge: London.

Morgan, Lewis H. 1964 (1877) Ancient Society. Bellknapp: Cambridge MA.

Pleyers, Geoffrey   2010   Alter-globalization: Becoming actors in a global age. Polity: Cambridge.

Polanyi, Karl   2001 (1944)   The Great Transformation: The political and economic origins of our times. Beacon: Boston.

——   1957   The economy as instituted process. In K. Polanyi, C. Arensberg and H. Pearson editors Trade and Market in the early Empires. Free Press: Glencoe IL, 243-269.

Rousseau, Jean-Jacques   1984 (1754)   Discourse on Inequality. Penguin: Harmondsworth.

Dummies guide to the latest “Hockey Stick” controversy (Real Climate)

http://www.realclimate.org

 — gavin @ 18 February 2005

by Gavin Schmidt and Caspar Amman

Due to popular demand, we have put together a ‘dummies guide’ which tries to describe what the actual issues are in the latest controversy, in language even our parents might understand. A pdf version is also available. More technical descriptions of the issues can be seen here and here.

This guide is in two parts, the first deals with the background to the technical issues raised byMcIntyre and McKitrick (2005) (MM05), while the second part discusses the application of this to the original Mann, Bradley and Hughes (1998) (MBH98) reconstruction. The wider climate science context is discussed here, and the relationship to other recent reconstructions (the ‘Hockey Team’) can be seen here.

NB. All the data that were used in MBH98 are freely available for download atftp://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/pub/sdr/temp/nature/MANNETAL98/ (and also as supplementary data at Nature) along with a thorough description of the algorithm.
Part I: Technical issues:

1) What is principal component analysis (PCA)?

This is a mathematical technique that is used (among other things) to summarize the data found in a large number of noisy records so that the essential aspects can more easily seen. The most common patterns in the data are captured in a number of ‘principal components’ which describe some percentage of the variation in the original records. Usually only a limited number of components (‘PC’s) have any statistical significance, and these can be used instead of the larger data set to give basically the same description.

2) What do these individual components represent?

Often the first few components represent something recognisable and physical meaningful (at least in climate data applications). If a large part of the data set has a trend, than the mean trend may show up as one of the most important PCs. Similarly, if there is a seasonal cycle in the data, that will generally be represented by a PC. However, remember that PCs are just mathematical constructs. By themselves they say nothing about the physics of the situation. Thus, in many circumstances, physically meaningful timeseries are ‘distributed’ over a number of PCs, each of which individually does not appear to mean much. Different methodologies or conventions can make a big difference in which pattern comes up tops. If the aim of the PCA analysis is to determine the most important pattern, then it is important to know how robust that pattern is to the methodology. However, if the idea is to more simply summarize the larger data set, the individual ordering of the PCs is less important, and it is more crucial to make sure that as many significant PCs are included as possible.

3) How do you know whether a PC has significant information?

PC significanceThis determination is usually based on a ‘Monte Carlo’ simulation (so-called because of the random nature of the calculations). For instance, if you take 1000 sets of random data (that have the same statistical properties as the data set in question), and you perform the PCA analysis 1000 times, there will be 1000 examples of the first PC. Each of these will explain a different amount of the variation (or variance) in the original data. When ranked in order of explained variance, the tenth one down then defines the 99% confidence level: i.e. if your real PC explains more of the variance than 99% of the random PCs, then you can say that this is significant at the 99% level. This can be done for each PC in turn. (This technique was introduced by Preisendorfer et al. (1981), and is called the Preisendorfer N-rule).

The figure to the right gives two examples of this. Here each PC is plotted against the amount of fractional variance it explains. The blue line is the result from the random data, while the blue dots are the PC results for the real data. It is clear that at least the first two are significantly separated from the random noise line. In the other case, there are 5 (maybe 6) red crosses that appear to be distinguishable from the red line random noise. Note also that the first (‘most important’) PC does not always explain the same amount of the original data.

4) What do different conventions for PC analysis represent?

Some different conventions exist regarding how the original data should be normalized. For instance, the data can be normalized to have an average of zero over the whole record, or over a selected sub-interval. The variance of the data is associated with departures from the whatever mean was selected. So the pattern of data that shows the biggest departure from the mean will dominate the calculated PCs. If there is an a priori reason to be interested in departures from a particular mean, then this is a way to make sure that those patterns move up in the PC ordering. Changing conventions means that the explained variance of each PC can be different, the ordering can be different, and the number of significant PCs can be different.

5) How can you tell whether you have included enough PCs?

This is rather easy to tell. If your answer depends on the number of PCs included, then you haven’t included enough. Put another way, if the answer you get is the same as if you had used all the data without doing any PC analysis at all, then you are probably ok. However, the reason why the PC summaries are used in the first place in paleo-reconstructions is that using the full proxy set often runs into the danger of ‘overfitting’ during the calibration period (the time period when the proxy data are trained to match the instrumental record). This can lead to a decrease in predictive skill outside of that window, which is the actual target of the reconstruction. So in summary, PC selection is a trade off: on one hand, the goal is to capture as much variability of the data as represented by the different PCs as possible (particularly if the explained variance is small), while on the other hand, you don’t want to include PCs that are not really contributing any more significant information.

Part II: Application to the MBH98 ‘Hockey Stick’

1) Where is PCA used in the MBH methodology?

When incorporating many tree ring networks into the multi-proxy framework, it is easier to use a few leading PCs rather than 70 or so individual tree ring chronologies from a particular region. The trees are often very closely located and so it makes sense to summarize the general information they all contain in relation to the large-scale patterns of variability. The relevant signal for the climate reconstruction is the signal that the trees have in common, not each individual series. In MBH98, the North American tree ring series were treated like this. There are a number of other places in the overall methodology where some form of PCA was used, but they are not relevant to this particular controversy.

2) What is the point of contention in MM05?

MM05 contend that the particular PC convention used in MBH98 in dealing with the N. American tree rings selects for the ‘hockey stick’ shape and that the final reconstruction result is simply an artifact of this convention.

3) What convention was used in MBH98?

MBH98 were particularly interested in whether the tree ring data showed significant differences from the 20th century calibration period, and therefore normalized the data so that the mean over this period was zero. As discussed above, this will emphasize records that have the biggest differences from that period (either positive of negative). Since the underlying data have a ‘hockey stick’-like shape, it is therefore not surprising that the most important PC found using this convention resembles the ‘hockey stick’. There are actual two significant PCs found using this convention, and both were incorporated into the full reconstruction.

PC1 vs PC44) Does using a different convention change the answer?

As discussed above, a different convention (MM05 suggest one that has zero mean over the whole record) will change the ordering, significance and number of important PCs. In this case, the number of significant PCs increases to 5 (maybe 6) from 2 originally. This is the difference between the blue points (MBH98 convention) and the red crosses (MM05 convention) in the first figure. Also PC1 in the MBH98 convention moves down to PC4 in the MM05 convention. This is illustrated in the figure on the right, the red curve is the original PC1 and the blue curve is MM05 PC4 (adjusted to have same variance and mean). But as we stated above, the underlying data has a hockey stick structure, and so in either case the ‘hockey stick’-like PC explains a significant part of the variance. Therefore, using the MM05 convention, more PCs need to be included to capture the significant information contained in the tree ring network.

This figure shows the difference in the final result whether you use the original convention and 2 PCs (blue) and the MM05 convention with 5 PCs (red). The MM05-based reconstruction is slightly less skillful when judged over the 19th century validation period but is otherwise very similar. In fact any calibration convention will lead to approximately the same answer as long as the PC decomposition is done properly and one determines how many PCs are needed to retain the primary information in the original data.

different conventions
5) What happens if you just use all the data and skip the whole PCA step?

This is a key point. If the PCs being used were inadequate in characterizing the underlying data, then the answer you get using all of the data will be significantly different. If, on the other hand, enough PCs were used, the answer should be essentially unchanged. This is shown in the figure below. The reconstruction using all the data is in yellow (the green line is the same thing but with the ‘St-Anne River’ tree ring chronology taken out). The blue line is the original reconstruction, and as you can see the correspondence between them is high. The validation is slightly worse, illustrating the trade-off mentioned above i.e. when using all of the data, over-fitting during the calibration period (due to the increase number of degrees of freedom) leads to a slight loss of predictability in the validation step.

No PCA comparison

6) So how do MM05 conclude that this small detail changes the answer?

MM05 claim that the reconstruction using only the first 2 PCs with their convention is significantly different to MBH98. Since PC 3,4 and 5 (at least) are also significant they are leaving out good data. It is mathematically wrong to retain the same number of PCs if the convention of standardization is changed. In this case, it causes a loss of information that is very easily demonstrated. Firstly, by showing that any such results do not resemble the results from using all data, and by checking the validation of the reconstruction for the 19th century. The MM version of the reconstruction can be matched by simply removing the N. American tree ring data along with the ‘St Anne River’ Northern treeline series from the reconstruction (shown in yellow below). Compare this curve with the ones shown above.

No N. American tree rings

As you might expect, throwing out data also worsens the validation statistics, as can be seen by eye when comparing the reconstructions over the 19th century validation interval. Compare the green line in the figure below to the instrumental data in red. To their credit, MM05 acknowledge that their alternate 15th century reconstruction has no skill.

validation period

7) Basically then the MM05 criticism is simply about whether selected N. American tree rings should have been included, not that there was a mathematical flaw?

Yes. Their argument since the beginning has essentially not been about methodological issues at all, but about ‘source data’ issues. Particular concerns with the “bristlecone pine” data were addressed in the followup paper MBH99 but the fact remains that including these data improves the statistical validation over the 19th Century period and they therefore should be included.

Hockey Team *used under GFDL license8) So does this all matter?

No. If you use the MM05 convention and include all the significant PCs, you get the same answer. If you don’t use any PCA at all, you get the same answer. If you use a completely different methodology (i.e. Rutherford et al, 2005), you get basically the same answer. Only if you remove significant portions of the data do you get a different (and worse) answer.

9) Was MBH98 the final word on the climate of last millennium?

Not at all. There has been significant progress on many aspects of climate reconstructions since MBH98. Firstly, there are more and better quality proxy data available. There are new methodologies such as described in Rutherford et al (2005) or Moberg et al (2005) that address recognised problems with incomplete data series and the challenge of incorporating lower resolution data into the mix. Progress is likely to continue on all these fronts. As of now, all of the ‘Hockey Team’ reconstructions (shown left) agree that the late 20th century is anomalous in the context of last millennium, and possibly the last two millennia.

The climate of the climate change debate is changing (The Guardian)

Quantifying how greenhouse gases contribute to extreme weather is a crucial step in calculating the cost of human influence

Myles Allen

guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 11 July 2012 12.08 BST

Climate change could trap hundreds of millions in disaster areas, report claims

This week, climate change researchers were able to attribute recent examples of extreme weather to the effects of human activity on the planet’s climate systems for the first time. Photograph: Rizwan Tabassum/AFP/Getty Images

The climate may have changed this week. Not the physical climate, but the climate of the climate change debate. Tuesday marked thepublication of a series of papers examining the factors behind extreme weather events in 2011. Nothing remarkable about that, you might think, except, if all goes well, this will be the first of a regular, annual assessment quantifying how external drivers of climate contribute to damaging weather.

Some of these drivers, like volcanoes, are things we can do nothing about. But others, like rising levels of greenhouse gases, we can. And quantifying how greenhouse gases contribute to extreme weather is a crucial step in pinning down the real cost of human influence on climate. While most people think of climate change in terms of shrinking ice-sheets and slowly rising sea levels, it is weather events that actually do harm.

This week also saw a workshop in Oxford for climate change negotiators from developing countries. Again, nothing remarkable about that except, for the first time, the issue of “loss and damage” was top of the agenda. For years negotiations have been over emission reductions and sharing the costs of adaptation. Now the debate is turning to: who is going to pay for damage done?

It is a good time to ask, since the costs that can unambiguously be attributed to human-induced climate change are still relatively small. Although Munich Re estimates that weather events in 2011 cost more than $100bn and claimed many thousands of lives, only a few of these events were clearly made more likely by human influence. Others may have been made less likely, but occurred anyway – chance remains the single dominant factor in when and where a weather event occurs. For the vast majority of events, we simply don’t yet know either way.

Connecting climate change and specific weather events is only one link in the causal chain between greenhouse gas emissions and actual harm. But it is a crucial link. If, as planned, the assessment of 2011 becomes routine, we should be able to compare actual weather-related damage, in both good years and bad, with the damage that might have been in a world without human influence on climate. This puts us well on our way to a global inventory of climate change impacts. And as soon as that is available, the question of compensation will not be far behind.

The presumption in climate change negotiations is that “countries with historically high emissions” would be first in line to foot the bill for loss and damage. There may be some logic to this, but if you are an African (or Texan) farmer hit by greenhouse-exacerbated drought, is the European or American taxpayer necessarily the right place to look for compensation? As any good lawyer knows, there is no point in suing a man with empty pockets.

The only institution in the world that could deal with the cost of climate change without missing a beat is the fossil fuel industry: BP took a $30bn charge for Deepwater Horizon, very possibly more than the total cost of climate change damages last year, and was back in profit within months. Of the $5 trillion per year we currently spend on fossil energy, a small fraction would take care of all the loss and damage attributable to climate change for the foreseeable future several times over.

Such a pay-as-you-go liability regime would not address the impacts of today’s emissions on the 22nd century. Governments cannot wash their hands of this issue entirely. But we have been so preoccupied with the climate of the 22nd century that we have curiously neglected to look after the interests of those being affected by climate change today.

So rather than haggling over emission caps and carbon taxes, why not start with a simple statement of principle: standard product liability applies to anyone who sells or uses fossil fuels, including liability for any third-party side-effects. There is no need at present to say what these side-effects might be – indeed, the scientific community does not yet know. But we are getting there.

Texas judge rules atmosphere, air to be protected like water, may aid climate change lawsuits (Washington Post)

By Associated Press, Published: July 11

HOUSTON — A Texas judge has ruled that the atmosphere and air must be protected for public use, just like water, which could help attorneys tasked with arguing climate change lawsuits designed to force states to cut emissions.

The written ruling, issued in a letter Monday by Texas District Court Judge Gisela Triana, shot down arguments by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality that only water is a “public trust,” a doctrine that dates to the Roman Empire stating a government must protect certain resources — usually water, sometimes wildlife — for the common good.

Adam Abrams, one of the attorneys arguing the case against TCEQ, said Triana’s ruling could be used as a persuasive argument in lawsuits pending in 11 other states.

In Texas, though, a ruling to protect air and the atmosphere has added significance. Republican Gov. Rick Perry is one of the most vocal opponents against widely accepted scientific research that fossil fuel emissions are causing global warming. And the state has refused to regulate greenhouse gases, forcing the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to work directly with industries to ensure they comply with federal law.

“The commission’s conclusion that the public trust doctrine is exclusively limited to the conservation of water is legally invalid,” Triana wrote.

She also wants the case brought to a standstill, saying that so long as Texas has open-ended litigation on similar issues on the federal level, she cannot compel the TCEQ to write rules to protect the atmosphere and the air.

The TCEQ said in an emailed comment that it was reviewing the judge’s letter and is awaiting her final order, but it appears Triana will support the agency’s move to deny the request for new rules.

The lawsuit was brought by the Texas Environmental Law Center, and is part of a court campaign in a dozen states by an Oregon-based nonprofit, Our Children’s Trust. The group is using children and young adults as plaintiffs in the lawsuits — some state and some federal — filed in Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas and Washington.

By relying on “common law” theories, the group hopes to have the atmosphere declared a public trust for the first time, granting it special protection. The doctrine has been used to clean up rivers and coastlines, but many legal experts have been unsure if it could be used successfully to combat climate change.

Still, Abrams, who has handled the Texas case on behalf of the Texas Environmental Law Center, believes Triana’s ruling can be used to argue the cases in other states. So far, he said, this is the first judge to back the group, though a New Mexico court recently allowed the case to go forward.

“I think it’s huge that we got a judge to acknowledge that the atmosphere is a public trust asset and the air is a public trust asset,” Abrams said. “It’s the first time we’ve had verbage like this come out of one of these cases.”

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Um novo bóson à vista (FAPESP)

Físicos do Cern descobriram nova partícula que parece ser o bóson de Higgs

MARCOS PIVETTA | Edição Online 19:46 4 de julho de 2012

Colisões de prótons nos quais se observa quatro elétrons de alta energia (linhas verdes e torres vermelhas). O evento mostra características esperadas do decaimento de um bóson de Higgs mas também é coerente com processos de fundo do modelo padrão

de Lindau (Alemanha)*

O maior laboratório do mundo pode ter encontrado a partícula que dá massa a todas as outras partículas, o tão procurado bóson de Higgs. Era a peça que faltava para completar um quebra-cabeça científico chamado modelo padrão, o arcabouço teórico formulado nas últimas décadas para explicar as partículas e forças presentes na matéria visível do Universo. Depois de analisarem trilhões de colisões de prótons produzidas em 2011 e em parte deste ano no Grande Acelerador de Hádrons (LHC), físicos dos dois maiores experimentos tocados de forma independente no Centro Europeu de Energia Nuclear (Cern) anunciaram nesta quarta-feira (4), nos arredores de Genebra (Suíça), a descoberta de uma nova partícula que tem quase todas as características do bóson de Higgs, embora ainda não possam assegurar com certeza de que se trata especificamente desse ou de algum outro tipo de bóson.

“Observamos em nossos dados sinais claros de uma nova partícula na região de massa em torno de 126 GeV (Giga-elétron-volts)”, disse a física Fabiola Gianotti, porta-voz do experimento Atlas. “Mas precisamos um pouco mais de tempo para prepararmos os resultados para publicação.” As informações provenientes de outro experimento feito no Cern, o CMS, são praticamente idênticas. “Os resultados são preliminares, mas os sinais que vemos em torno da região com massa de 125 GeV são dramáticos. É realmente uma nova partícula. Sabemos que deve ser um bóson e é o bóson mais pesado que achamos”, afirmou o porta-voz do experimento CMS, o físico Joe Incandela. Se tiver mesmo uma massa de 125 ou 126 GeV, a nova partícula será tão pesada quanto um átomo do elemento químico iodo.

Em ambos os casos experimentos, o grau de confiabilidade das análises estatísticas atingiu o nível que os cientistas chamam de 5 sigma. Nesses casos, a chance de erro é de uma em três milhões. Ou seja, com esse nível de certeza, é possível falar que houve uma descoberta, só não se conhece em detalhes a natureza da partícula encontrada. “É incrível que essa descoberta tenha acontecido durante a minha vida”, comenta Peter Higgs, o físico teórico britânico que, há 50 anos, ao lado de outros cientistas, previu a existência desse tipo de bóson. Ainda neste mês, um artigo com os dados do LHC deverá ser submetido a uma revista científica. Até o final do ano, quando acelerador será fechado para manutenção por ao menos um ano e meio, mais dados devem ser produzidos pelos dois experimentos.

“Estou rindo o dia todo”
Em Lindau, uma pequena cidade do sul da Alemanha à beira do lago Constance na divisa com a Áustria e a Suíça, onde ocorre nesta semana o 62º Encontro de Prêmios Nobel, os pesquisadores comemoraram a notícia vinda dos experimentos no Cern. Como o tema do encontro deste ano era física, não faltaram laureados com a maior honraria da ciência para comentar o feito. “Não sabemos se é o bóson (de Higgs), mas é um bóson”, disse o físico teórico David J. Gross, da Universidade de Califórnia, ganhador do Nobel de 2004 pela descoberta da liberdade assintótica. “Estou rindo o dia todo.” O físico experimental Carlo Rubia, ex-diretor geral do Cern e ganhador do Nobel de 1984 por trabalhos que levaram à identificação de dois tipos de bósons (o W e Z), foi na mesma linha de raciocínio. “Estamos diante de um marco”, afirmou.

Talvez com um entusiasmo um pouco menor, mas ainda assim reconhecendo a enorme importância do achado no Cern, dois outros Nobel deram sua opinião sobre a notícia do dia. “É algo que esperávamos há anos”, afirmou o físico teórico holandês Martinus Veltman, que recebeu o prêmio em 1999. “O modelo padrão ganhou um degrau maior de validade.” Para o cosmologista americano George Smoot, ganhador do Nobel de 2006 pela descoberta da radiação cósmica de fundo (uma relíquia do Big Bang, a explosão primordial que criou o Universo), ainda deve demorar uns dois ou três anos para os cientistas realmente saberem que tipo de nova partícula foi realmente descoberta. Se a nova partícula não for o bóson de Higgs, Smoot disse que seria “maravilhoso se fosse algo relacionado com a matéria escura”, um misterioso componente que, ao lado da matéria visível e da ainda mais desconhecida energia escura, seria um dos pilares do Universo.

Não é possível medir de forma direta partículas com as propriedades do bóson de Higgs, mas sua existência, ainda que fugaz, deixaria rastros, que, estes sim, poderiam ser detectados num acelerador de partículas tão potente como o LHC. Instáveis e fugazes, os bósons de Higgs sobrevivem uma ínfima fração de segundo – até decaírem e virarem partículas menos pesadas, que, por sua vez, decaem também e dão origem a partículas ainda mais leves. O modelo padrão prevê que, em função de sua massa, os bósons de Higgs devem decair em diferentes canais, ou seja, em distintas combinações de partículas mais leves, como dois fótons ou quatro léptons. Nos experimentos feitos no Cern, dos quais participaram cerca de 6 mil físicos, foram encontradas evidências quase inequívocas das formas de decaimento que seriam a assinatura típica dos bóson de Higgs.

*O jornalista Marcos Pivetta viajou a Lindau a convite do Daad (Serviço Alemão de Intercâmbio Acadêmico)

Elinor Ostrom, defender of the commons, died on June 12th, aged 78 (The Economist)

Jun 30th 2012 | from the print edition

IT SEEMED to Elinor Ostrom that the world contained a large body of common sense. People, left to themselves, would sort out rational ways of surviving and getting along. Although the world’s arable land, forests, fresh water and fisheries were all finite, it was possible to share them without depleting them and to care for them without fighting. While others wrote gloomily of the tragedy of the commons, seeing only overfishing and overfarming in a free-for-all of greed, Mrs Ostrom, with her loud laugh and louder tops, cut a cheery and contrarian figure.

Years of fieldwork, by herself and others, had shown her that humans were not trapped and helpless amid diminishing supplies. She had looked at forests in Nepal, irrigation systems in Spain, mountain villages in Switzerland and Japan, fisheries in Maine and Indonesia. She had even, as part of her PhD at the University of California, Los Angeles, studied the water wars and pumping races going on in the 1950s in her own dry backyard.

All these cases had taught her that, over time, human beings tended to draw up sensible rules for the use of common-pool resources. Neighbours set boundaries and assigned shares, with each individual taking it in turn to use water, or to graze cows on a certain meadow. Common tasks, such as clearing canals or cutting timber, were done together at a certain time. Monitors watched out for rule-breakers, fining or eventually excluding them. The schemes were mutual and reciprocal, and many had worked well for centuries.

Best of all, they were not imposed from above. Mrs Ostrom put no faith in governments, nor in large conservation schemes paid for with aid money and crawling with concrete-bearing engineers. “Polycentrism” was her ideal. Caring for the commons had to be a multiple task, organised from the ground up and shaped to cultural norms. It had to be discussed face to face, and based on trust. Mrs Ostrom, besides poring over satellite data and quizzing lobstermen herself, enjoyed employing game theory to try to predict the behaviour of people faced with limited resources. In her Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis at the University of Indiana—set up with her husband Vincent, a political scientist, in 1973—her students were given shares in a notional commons. When they simply discussed what they should do before they did it, their rate of return from their “investments” more than doubled.

“Small is beautiful” sometimes seemed to be her creed. Her workshop looked somewhat like a large, cluttered cottage, reflecting her and Vincent’s idea that science was a form of artisanship. When the vogue in America was all for consolidation of public services, she ran against it. For some years she compared police forces in the town of Speedway and the city of Indianapolis, finding that forces of 25-50 officers performed better by almost every measure than 100-strong metropolitan teams. But smaller institutions, she cautioned, might not work better in every case. As she travelled the world, giving out good and sharp advice, “No panaceas!” was her cry.

Scarves for the troops

Rather than littleness, collaboration was her watchword. Neighbours thrived if they worked together. The best-laid communal schemes would fall apart once people began to act only as individuals, or formed elites. Born poor herself, to a jobless film-set-maker in Los Angeles who soon left her mother alone, she despaired of people who wanted only a grand house or a fancy car. Her childhood world was coloured by digging a wartime “victory” vegetable garden, knitting scarves for the troops, buying her clothes in a charity store: mutual efforts to a mutual end.

The same approach was valuable in academia, too. Her own field, institutional economics (or “the study of social dilemmas”, as she thought of it), straddled political science, ecology, psychology and anthropology. She liked to learn from all of them, marching boldly across the demarcation lines to hammer out good policy, and she welcomed workshop-partners from any discipline, singing folk songs with them, too, if anyone had a guitar. They were family. Pure economists looked askance at this perky, untidy figure, especially when she became the first woman to win a shared Nobel prize for economics in 2009. She was not put out; it was the workshop’s prize, anyway, she said, and the money would go for scholarships.

Yet the incident shed a keen light on one particular sort of collaboration: that between men and women. Lin (as everyone called her) and Vincent, both much-honoured professors, were joint stars of their university in old age. But she had been dissuaded from studying economics at UCLA because, being a girl, she had been steered away from maths at high school; and she was dissuaded from doing political science because, being a girl, she could not hope for a good university post. As a graduate, she had been offered only secretarial jobs; and her first post at Indiana involved teaching a 7.30am class in government that no one else would take.

There was, she believed, a great common fund of sense and wisdom in the world. But it had been an uphill struggle to show that it reposed in both women and men; and that humanity would do best if it could exploit it to the full.

Para evitar catástrofes ambientais (FAPERJ)

Vilma Homero

05/07/2012

 Nelson Fernandes / UFRJ
 
  Novos métodos podem prever onde e quando
ocorrerão deslizamentos na região serrana

Quando várias áreas de Nova Friburgo, Petrópolis e Teresópolis sofreram deslizamentos, em janeiro de 2011, soterrando mais de mil pessoas em toneladas de lama e destroços, a pergunta que ficou no ar foi se o desastre poderia ter sido minimizado. No que depender do Instituto de Geociências da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), as consequências provocadas por cataclismas ambientais como esses poderão ser cada vez menores. Para isso, os pesquisadores estão desenvolvendo uma série de projetos multidisciplinares para viabilizar sistemas de análise de riscos. Um deles é o Prever, que, com suporte de programas computacionais, une os avanços alcançados em metodologias de sensoriamento remoto, geoprocessamento, geomorfologia e geotecnia, à modelagem matemática para a previsão do tempo em áreas mais suscetíveis a deslizamentos, como a região serrana. “Embora a realidade dos vários municípios daquela região seja bastante diferente, há em comum uma falta de metodologias voltadas à previsão para esse tipo de risco. O fundamental agora é desenvolver métodos capazes de prever a localização espacial e temporal desses processos. Ou seja, saber “onde” e “quando” esses deslizamentos podem ocorrer”, explica o geólogo Nelson Ferreira Fernandes, professor do Departamento de Geografia da UFRJ e Cientista do Nosso Estado da FAPERJ.Para elaborar métodos de previsão de risco, em tempo real, que incluam movimentos de massa deflagrados em resposta a entradas pluviométricas, os pesquisadores estão traçando um mapeamento, realizado a partir de sucessivas imagens captadas por satélites, que são cruzadas com mapas geológicos e geotécnicos. O Prever combina modelos de simulação climática e de previsão de eventos pluviométricos extremos, desenvolvidos na área da meteorologia, com modelos matemáticos de previsão, mais as informações desenvolvidos pela geomorfologia e pela geotecnia, que nos indicam as áreas mais suscetíveis a deslizamentos. Assim, podemos elaborar traçar previsões de risco, em tempo real, classificando os resultados de acordo com a gravidade desse risco, que varia continuamente, no espaço e no tempo”, explica Nelson.

Para isso, os Departamentos de Geografia, Geologia e Meteorologia do Instituto de Geociências da UFRJ se unem à Faculdade de Geologia da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (Uerj) e ao Departamento de Engenharia Civil da Pontifícia Universidade Católica (PUC-Rio). Com a sobreposição de informações, pode-se apontar, nas imagens resultantes, as áreas mais sensíveis a deslizamentos. “Somando esses conhecimentos acadêmicos aos dados de órgãos estaduais, como o Núcleo de Análise de Desastres (Nade), do Departamento de Recursos Minerais (DRM-RJ), responsável pelo apoio técnico à Defesa Civil, estaremos não apenas atualizando constantemente os mapas usados hoje pelos órgãos do governo do estado e pela Defesa Civil, como estaremos também facilitando um planejamento mais preciso para a tomada de decisões.”

 Divulgação / UFRJ
Uma simulação mostra em imagem a possibilidade de
um deslizamento de massas na
 região de Jacarepaguá

Esse novo mapeamento também significa melhor qualidade e maior precisão e mais detalhamento de imagens. “Obviamente, com melhores instrumentos em mãos, o que quer dizer mapas mais detalhados e precisos, os gestores públicos também poderão planejar e agir de forma mais acurada e em tempo real”, afirma Nelson. Segundo o pesquisador, esses mapas precisam ter atualização constante para acompanhar a dinâmica da interferência da ocupação humana sobre a topografia das várias regiões. “Isso vem acontecendo seja pelo corte de encostas, seja pela ocupação de áreas aterradas ou pelas mudanças em consequência da drenagem de rios. Tudo isso altera a topografia e, no caso de chuvas mais fortes e prolongadas, pode tornar determinados solos mais propensos a deslizamentos ou a alagamentos e enchentes”, exemplifica Nelson.Mas os sistemas de análises de desastres e riscos ambientais também compreendem outras linhas de pesquisa. No Prever, se trabalha em duas linhas de ação distintas. “Uma delas é a de clima, em que detectamos as áreas em que haverá um aumento pluviométrico a longo prazo e fornecemos informações a órgãos de decisão e planejamento. Outra é a previsão de curtíssimo prazo, o chamadonowcasting.” No caso de previsão de longo prazo, a professora Ana Maria Bueno Nunes, do Departamento de Meteorologia da mesma universidade, vem trabalhando no projeto “Implementação de um Sistema de Modelagem Regional: Estudos de Tempo e Clima”, sob sua coordenação, com a proposta de uma reconstrução do hidroclima da América do Sul, uma extensão daquele projeto.

“Unindo dados sobre precipitação fornecidos por satélite às informações das estações atmosféricas, é possível, através de modelagem computacional, traçar estimativas de precipitação. Assim, podemos não apenas saber quando haverá chuvas de intensidade mais forte, ou mais prolongadas, como também observar em mapas passados qual foi a convergência de fatores que provocou uma situação de desastre. A reconstrução é uma forma de estudar o passado para entender cenários atuais que se mostrem semelhantes. E, com isso, ajudamos a melhorar os modelos de previsão”, afirma Ana. Estas informações, que a princípio servirão para uso acadêmico e científico, permitirão que se tenha dados cada vez mais detalhados de como se formam grandes chuvas, aquelas que são capazes de provocar inundações em determinadas áreas. “Isso permitirá não apenas compreender melhor as condições em que certas situações de calamidade acontecem, como prever quando essas condições podem se repetir. Com o projeto, estamos também formando recursos humanos ainda mais especializados nessa área”, avalia a pesquisadora, cujo trabalho conta com recursos de um Auxílio à Pesquisa (APQ 1).

Também integrante do projeto, o professor Gutemberg Borges França, da UFRJ, explica que existem três tipos de previsão meteorológica: a sinótica – que traça previsões numa média de 6h até sete dias, cobrindo alguns milhares de km, como o continente sul-americano; a de mesoescala, que faz previsões sobre uma média de 6h a dois dias, cobrindo algumas centenas de km, como o estado do Rio de Janeiro; e a de curto prazo, ou nowcasting, que varia de poucos minutos até 3h a 6h, sobre uma área específica de poucos km, como a região metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro, por exemplo.

Se previsões de longo prazo são importantes, as de curto prazo, ou nowcasting, também são. Segundo Gutemberg, os atuais modelos numéricos de previsão ainda são deficientes para realizar a previsão de curto prazo, que termina sendo feita em grande parte com base na experiência do meteorologista, pela interpretação das informações de várias fontes de dados disponíveis, como imagens de satélites; de estações meteorológicas de superfície e altitude; de radar e sodar (Sonic Detection and Ranging), e modelos numéricos. “No entanto, o meteorologista carece ainda hoje de ferramentas objetivas que possam auxiliá-lo na integração dessas diversas informações para realizar uma previsão de curto prazo mais acurada”, argumenta Gutemberg.Atualmente, o Rio de Janeiro já dispõe de estações de recepção de satélites, estação de altitude – radiosondagem – que geram perfis atmosféricos, estações meteorológicas de superfície e radar. O Laboratório de Meteorologia Aplicada do Departamento de Meteorologia, da UFRJ, está desenvolvendo, desde 2005, ferramentas de previsão de curto prazo, utilizando inteligência computacional, visando o aprimoramento das previsões de eventos meteorológicos extremos para o Rio de Janeiro. “Com inteligência computacional, temos essa informação em tempo mais curto e de forma mais acurada.”, resume.

© FAPERJ – Todas as matérias poderão ser reproduzidas, desde que citada a fonte.

This summer is ‘what global warming looks like’ (AP) + related & reactions

Jul 3, 1:10 PM EDT

By SETH BORENSTEIN
AP Science Writer

AP PhotoAP Photo/Matthew Barakat

WASHINGTON (AP) — Is it just freakish weather or something more? Climate scientists suggest that if you want a glimpse of some of the worst of global warming, take a look at U.S. weather in recent weeks.

Horrendous wildfires. Oppressive heat waves. Devastating droughts. Flooding from giant deluges. And a powerful freak wind storm called a derecho.

These are the kinds of extremes experts have predicted will come with climate change, although it’s far too early to say that is the cause. Nor will they say global warming is the reason 3,215 daily high temperature records were set in the month of June.

Scientifically linking individual weather events to climate change takes intensive study, complicated mathematics, computer models and lots of time. Sometimes it isn’t caused by global warming. Weather is always variable; freak things happen.

And this weather has been local. Europe, Asia and Africa aren’t having similar disasters now, although they’ve had their own extreme events in recent years.

But since at least 1988, climate scientists have warned that climate change would bring, in general, increased heat waves, more droughts, more sudden downpours, more widespread wildfires and worsening storms. In the United States, those extremes are happening here and now.

So far this year, more than 2.1 million acres have burned in wildfires, more than 113 million people in the U.S. were in areas under extreme heat advisories last Friday, two-thirds of the country is experiencing drought, and earlier in June, deluges flooded Minnesota and Florida.

“This is what global warming looks like at the regional or personal level,” said Jonathan Overpeck, professor of geosciences and atmospheric sciences at the University of Arizona. “The extra heat increases the odds of worse heat waves, droughts, storms and wildfire. This is certainly what I and many other climate scientists have been warning about.”

Kevin Trenberth, head of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in fire-charred Colorado, said these are the very record-breaking conditions he has said would happen, but many people wouldn’t listen. So it’s I told-you-so time, he said.

As recently as March, a special report an extreme events and disasters by the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned of “unprecedented extreme weather and climate events.” Its lead author, Chris Field of the Carnegie Institution and Stanford University, said Monday, “It’s really dramatic how many of the patterns that we’ve talked about as the expression of the extremes are hitting the U.S. right now.”

“What we’re seeing really is a window into what global warming really looks like,” said Princeton University geosciences and international affairs professor Michael Oppenheimer. “It looks like heat. It looks like fires. It looks like this kind of environmental disasters.”

Oppenheimer said that on Thursday. That was before the East Coast was hit with triple-digit temperatures and before a derecho – a large, powerful and long-lasting straight-line wind storm – blew from Chicago to Washington. The storm and its aftermath killed more than 20 people and left millions without electricity. Experts say it had energy readings five times that of normal thunderstorms.

Fueled by the record high heat, this was among the strongest of this type of storm in the region in recent history, said research meteorologist Harold Brooks of the National Severe Storm Laboratory in Norman, Okla. Scientists expect “non-tornadic wind events” like this one and other thunderstorms to increase with climate change because of the heat and instability, he said.

Such patterns haven’t happened only in the past week or two. The spring and winter in the U.S. were the warmest on record and among the least snowy, setting the stage for the weather extremes to come, scientists say.

Since Jan. 1, the United States has set more than 40,000 hot temperature records, but fewer than 6,000 cold temperature records, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Through most of last century, the U.S. used to set cold and hot records evenly, but in the first decade of this century America set two hot records for every cold one, said Jerry Meehl, a climate extreme expert at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. This year the ratio is about 7 hot to 1 cold. Some computer models say that ratio will hit 20-to-1 by midcentury, Meehl said.

“In the future you would expect larger, longer more intense heat waves and we’ve seen that in the last few summers,” NOAA Climate Monitoring chief Derek Arndt said.

The 100-degree heat, drought, early snowpack melt and beetles waking from hibernation early to strip trees all combined to set the stage for the current unusual spread of wildfires in the West, said University of Montana ecosystems professor Steven Running, an expert on wildfires.

While at least 15 climate scientists told The Associated Press that this long hot U.S. summer is consistent with what is to be expected in global warming, history is full of such extremes, said John Christy at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. He’s a global warming skeptic who says, “The guilty party in my view is Mother Nature.”

But the vast majority of mainstream climate scientists, such as Meehl, disagree: “This is what global warming is like, and we’ll see more of this as we go into the future.”

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on extreme weather: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/

U.S. weather records:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/records/

Seth Borenstein can be followed at http://twitter.com/borenbears

© 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. Learn more about our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.

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July 3, 2012

To Predict Environmental Doom, Ignore the Past

http://www.realclearscience.com

By Todd Myers

The information presented here cannot be used directly to calculate Earth’s long-term carrying capacity for human beings because, among other things, carrying capacity depends on both the affluence of the population being supported and the technologies supporting it. – Paul Ehrlich, 1986

One would expect scientists to pause when they realize their argument about resource collapse makes the king of environmental catastrophe, Paul Ehrlich, look moderate by comparison. Ehrlich is best known for a 40-year series of wildly inaccurate predictions of looming environmental disaster. Yet he looks positively reasonable compared to a paper recently published in the scientific journal Nature titled “Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere.”

The paper predicts we are rapidly approaching a moment of “planetary-scale critical transition,” due to overuse of resources, climate change and other human-caused environmental damage. As a result, the authors conclude, this will “require reducing world population growth and per-capita resource use; rapidly increasing the proportion of the world’s energy budget that is supplied by sources other than fossil fuels,” and a range of other drastic policies. If these sound much like the ideas proposed in the 1970s by Ehrlich and others, like The Club of Rome, it is not a coincidence. TheNature paper is built on Ehrlich’s assumptions and cites his work more than once.

The Nature article, however, suffers from numerous simple statistical errors and assumptions rather than evidence. Its authors do nothing to deal with the fundamental mistakes that led Ehrlich and others like him down the wrong path so many times. Instead, the paper simply argues that with improved data, this time their predictions of doom are correct.

Ultimately, the piece is a good example of the great philosopher of science Thomas Kuhn’s hypothesis, written 50 years ago, that scientists often attempt to fit the data to conform to their particular scientific paradigm, even when that paradigm is obviously flawed. When confronted with failure to explain real-world phenomena, the authors of the Nature piece have, as Kuhn described in The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, devised “numerous articulations and ad hoc modifications of their theory in order to eliminate any apparent conflict.” Like scientists blindly devoted to a failed paradigm, the Nature piece simply tries to force new data to fit a flawed concept.

“Assuming this does not change”

During the last half-century, the world has witnessed a dramatic increase in food production. According to the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization, yields per acre of rice have more than doubled, corn yields are more than one-and-a-half times larger than 50 years ago, and wheat yields have almost tripled. As a result, even as human population has increased, worldwide hunger has declined.

Despite these well-known statistics, the authors of the Nature study assume not only no future technological improvements, but that none have occurred over the last 200 years. The authors simply choose one data point and then project it both into the past and into the future. The authors explain the assumption that underlies their thesis in the caption to a graphic showing the Earth approaching environmental saturation. They write:

“The percentages of such transformed lands… when divided by 7,000,000,000 (the present global human population) yield a value of approximately 2.27 acres (0.92 ha) of transformed land for each person. That value was used to estimate the amount of transformed land that probably existed in the years 1800, 1900 and 1950, and which would exist in 2025 and 2045 assuming conservative population growth and that resource use does not become any more efficient.” (emphasis added)

In other words, the basis for their argument ignores the easily accessible data from the last half century. They take a snapshot in time and mistake it for a historical trend. In contrast to their claim of no change in the efficient use of resources, it would be difficult to find a time period in the last millennium when resource use did not become more efficient.

Ironically, this is the very error Ehrlich warns against in his 1986 paper – a paper the authors themselves cite several times. Despite Ehrlich’s admonition that projections of future carrying capacity are dependent upon technological change, the authors of the Nature article ignore history to come to their desired conclusion.

A Paradigm of Catastrophe

What would lead scientists to make such simplistic assumptions and flat-line projections? Indeed, what would lead Nature editors to print an article whose statistical underpinnings are so flawed? The simple belief in the paradigm of inevitable environmental catastrophe: humans are doing irreparable damage to the Earth and every bit of resource use moves us closer to that catastrophe. The catastrophe paradigm argues a simple model that eventually we will run out of space and resources, and determining the date of ultimate doom is a simple matter of doing the math.

Believing in this paradigm also justifies exaggeration in order to stave off the serious consequences of collapse. Thus, they describe the United Nations’ likely population estimate for 2050 as “the most conservative,” without explaining why. They claim “rapid climate change shows no signs of slowing” without providing a source citation for the claim, and despite an actual slowing of climate change over the last decade.

The need to avoid perceived global catastrophe also encourages the authors to blow past warning signs that their analysis is not built on solid foundations – as if the poor history of such projections were not already warning enough. Even as they admit the interactions “between overlapping complex systems, however, are providing difficult to characterize mathematically,” they base their conclusions on the simplest linear mathematical estimate that assumes nothing will change except population over the next 40 years. They then draw a straight line, literally, from today to the environmental tipping point.

Why is such an unscientific approach allowed to pass for science in a respected international journal? Because whatever the argument does not supply, the paradigm conveniently fills in. Even if the math isn’t reliable and there are obvious counterarguments, “everyone” understands and believes in the underlying truth – we are nearing the limits of the planet’s ability to support life. In this way the conclusion is not proven but assumed, making the supporting argument an impenetrable tautology.

Such a circumstance creates the conditions of scientific revolutions, where the old paradigm fails to explain real-world phenomena and is replaced by an alternative. Given the record of failure of the paradigm of resource catastrophe, dating back to the 1970s, one would hope we are moving toward such a change. Unfortunately, Nature and the authors of the piece are clinging to the old resource-depletion model, simply trying to re-work the numbers.

Let us hope policymakers recognize the failure of that paradigm before they make costly and dangerous policy mistakes that impoverish billions in the name of false scientific assumptions.

Todd Myers is the Environmental Director of the Washington Policy Center and author of the book Eco-Fads.

*   *   *

Washington Policy Center exposed: Todd Myers

The Washington Policy Center labels itself as a non-partisan think tank. It’s a mischaractization to say the least but that is their bread and butter. Based in Seattle, with a director in Spokane, the WPC’s mission is to “promote free-market solutions through research and education.” It makes sense they have an environmental director in the form of Todd Myers who has a new book called“Eco-Fads: How The Rise Of Trendy Environmentalism Is Harming The Environment.” You know, since polar bears love to swim.


From the WPC’s newsletter:

Wherever we turn, politicians, businesses and activists are promoting the latest fashionable “green” policy or product. Green buildings, biofuels, electric cars, compact fluorescent lightbulbs and a variety of other technologies are touted as the next key step in protecting the environment and promoting a sustainable future. Increasingly, however, scientific and economic information regarding environmental problems takes a back seat to the social and personal value of being seen and perceived as “green.”

As environmental consciousness has become socially popular, eco-fads supplant objective data. Politicians pick the latest environmental agenda in the same way we choose the fall fashions – looking for what will yield the largest benefit with our public and social circles.

Eco-Fads exposes the pressures that cause politicians, businesses, the media and even scientists to fall for trendy environmental fads. It examines why we fall for such fads, even when we should know better. The desire to “be green” can cloud our judgment, causing us to place things that make us appear green ahead of actions that may be socially invisible yet environmentally responsible.

By recognizing the range of forces that have taken us in the wrong direction, Eco-Fads shows how we can begin to get back on track, creating a prosperous and sustainable legacy for our planet’s future. Order Eco-Fads today for $26.95 (tax and shipping included).

This is what the newsletter doesn’t tell you about Todd Myers.

Myers has spoken at the Heartland Institute’s International Conference on Climate Change. In case you didn’t know, the Heartland Institute has received significant funding from ExxonMobil, Phillip Morris and numerous other corporations and conservative foundations with vested interest in the so-called debate around climate change. That conference was co-sponsored by numerous prominent climate change denier groups, think tanks and lobby groups, almost all of which have received money from the oil industry.

Why not just call it the Washington Fallacy Center? For a litte more background, including ties back to the Koch Brothers, go HERE. In fact, Jack Kemp calls it “The Heritage Foundation of the Northwest.”

*   *   *

 

Did climate change ’cause’ the Colorado wildfires?

By David Roberts

29 Jun 2012 1:50 PM

http://grist.org

Photo by USAF.

The wildfires raging through Colorado and the West are unbelievable. As of yesterday there were 242 fires burning, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. Almost 350 homes have been destroyed in Colorado Springs, where 36,000 people have been evacuated from their homes. President Obama is visiting today to assess the devastation for himself.

Obviously the priority is containing the fires and protecting people. But inevitably the question is going to come up: Did climate change “cause” the fires? Regular readers know that this question drives me a little nuts. Pardon the long post, but I want to try to tackle this causation question once and for all.

What caused the Colorado Springs fire? Well, it was probably a careless toss of a cigarette butt, or someone burning leaves in their backyard, or a campfire that wasn’t properly doused. [UPDATE:Turns out it was lightning.] That spark, wherever it came from, is what triggered the cascading series of events we call “a fire.” It was what philosophers call the proximate cause, the most immediate, the closest.

All the other factors being discussed — the intense drought covering the state, the dead trees left behind by bark beetles, the high winds — are distal causes. Distal causes are less tightly connected to their effects. The dead trees didn’t make any particular fire inevitable; there can be no fire without a spark. What they did is make it more likelythat a fire would occur. Distal causes are like that: probabilistic. Nonetheless, our intuitions tell us that distal causes are in many ways more satisfactory explanations. They tell us something about themeaning of events, not just the mechanisms, which is why they’re also called “ultimate” causes. It’s meaning we usually want.

When we say, “the fires in Colorado were caused by unusually dry conditions, high winds, and diseased trees,” no one accuses us of error or imprecision because it was “really” the matches or campfires that caused them. We are not expected to say, “no individual fire can be definitively attributed to hot, windy conditions, but these are the kinds of fires we would expect to see in those conditions.” Why waste the words? We are understood to be talking about distal causes.

When we talk about, not fires themselves, but the economic and socialimpacts of fires, the range of distal causes grows even broader. For a given level of damages, it’s not enough to have dry conditions and dead trees, not even enough to have fire — you also have to take into account the density of development, the responsiveness of emergency services, and the preparedness of communities for prevention or evacuation.

So if we say, “the limited human toll of the Colorado fires is the result of the bravery and skill of Western firefighters,” no one accuses us of error or imprecision because good firefighting was only one of many contributors to the final level of damages. Everything from evacuation plans to the quality of the roads to the vagaries of the weather contributed in some way to that state of affairs. But we are understood to be identifying a distal cause, not giving a comprehensive account of causation.

What I’m trying to say is, we are perfectly comfortable discussing distal causes in ordinary language. We don’t require scientistic literalism in our everyday talk.

The reason I’m going through all this, you won’t be surprised, is to tie it back to climate change. We know, of course, that climate change was not the proximate cause of the fires. It was a distal cause; it made the fires more likely. That much we know with a high degree of confidence, as this excellent review of the latest science by Climate Communication makes clear.

One can distinguish between distal causes by their proximity to effects. Say the drought made the fires 50 percent more likely than average June conditions in Colorado. (I’m just pulling these numbers out of my ass to illustrate a point.) Climate change maybe only made the fires 1 percent more likely. As a cause, it is more distal than the drought. And there are probably causes even more distal than climate change. Maybe the exact tilt of the earth’s axis this June made the fires 0.0001 percent more likely. Maybe the location of a particular proton during the Big Bang made them 0.000000000000000001 percent more likely. You get the point.

With this in mind, it’s clear that the question as it’s frequently asked — “did climate change cause the fires?” — is not going to get us the answer we want. If it’s yes or no, the answer is “yes.” But that doesn’t tell us much. What people really want to know when they ask that question is, “how proximate a cause is climate change?”

When we ask the question like that, we start to see why climate is such a wicked problem. Human beings, by virtue of their evolution, physiology, and socialization, are designed to heed causes within a particular range between proximate and distal. If I find my kid next to an overturned glass and a puddle of milk and ask him why the milk is spilled, I don’t care about the neurons firing and the muscles contracting. That’s too proximate. I don’t care about humans evolving with poor peripheral vision. That’s too distal. I care about my kid reaching for it and knocking it over. That’s not the only level of causal explanation that is correct, but it’s the level of causal explanation that is most meaningful to me.

For a given effect — a fire, a flood, a dead forest — climate change is almost always too distal a cause to make a visceral impression on us. We’re just not built to pay heed to those 1 percent margins. It’s too abstract. The problem is, wildfires being 1 percent more likely averaged over the whole globe actually means a lot more fires, a lot more damage, loss, and human suffering. Part of managing the Anthropocene is finding ways of making distal causes visceral, giving them a bigger role in our thinking and institutions.

That’s what the “did climate change cause XYZ?” questions are always really about: how proximate a cause climate change is, how immediate its effects are in our lives, how close it is.

There is, of course, a constant temptation among climate hawks to exaggerate how proximate it is, since, all things being equal, proximity = salience. But I don’t think that simply saying “climate change caused the fires” is necessarily false or exaggerated, any more than saying “drought caused the fires” is. The fact that the former strikes many people as suspect while the latter is immediately understood mostly just means that we’re not used to thinking of climate change as a distal cause among others.

That’s why we reach for awkward language like, “fires like this are consonant with what we would expect from climate change.” Not because that’s the way we discuss all distal causes — it’s clearly not — but simply because we’re unaccustomed to counting climate change among those causes. It’s an unfamiliar habit. As it grows more familiar, I suspect we’ll quit having so many of these tedious semantic disputes.

And I’m afraid that, in coming years, it will become all-too familiar.

*   *   *

 

Perspective On The Hot and Dry Continental USA For 2012 Based On The Research Of Judy Curry and Of McCabe Et Al 2004

http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com

Photo is from June 26 2012 showing start of the June 26 Flagstaff firenear Boulder Colorado

I was alerted to an excellent presentation by Judy Curry [h/t to Don Bishop] which provides an informative explanation of the current hot and dry weather in the USA. The presentation is titled

Climate Dimensions of the Water Cycle by Judy Curry

First, there is an insightful statement by Judy where she writes in slide 5

CMIP century scale simulations are designed for assessing sensitivity to greenhouse gases using emissions scenarios They are not fit for the purpose of inferring decadal scale or regional climate variability, or assessing variations associated with natural forcing and internal variability. Downscaling does not help.

We need a much broader range of scenarios for regions (historical data, simple models, statistical models, paleoclimate analyses, etc). Permit creatively constructed scenarios as long as they can’t be falsified as incompatible with background knowledge.

With respect to the current hot and dry weather, the paper referenced by Judy in her Powerpoint talk

Gregory J. McCabe, Michael A. Palecki, and Julio L. Betancourt, 2004: Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States. PNAS 2004 101 (12) 4136-4141; published ahead of print March 11, 2004, doi:10.1073/pnas.0306738101

has the abstract [highlight added]

More than half (52%) of the spatial and temporal variance in multidecadal drought frequency over the conterminous United States is attributable to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An additional 22% of the variance in drought frequency is related to a complex spatial pattern of positive and negative trends in drought occurrence possibly related to increasing Northern Hemisphere temperatures or some other unidirectional climate trend. Recent droughts with broad impacts over the conterminous U.S. (1996, 1999–2002) were associated with North Atlantic warming (positive AMO) and northeastern and tropical Pacific cooling (negative PDO). Much of the long-term predictability of drought frequency may reside in the multidecadal behavior of the North Atlantic Ocean. Should the current positive AMO (warm North Atlantic) conditions persist into the upcoming decade, we suggest two possible drought scenarios that resemble the continental-scale patterns of the 1930s (positive PDO) and 1950s (negative PDO) drought.

They also present the figure below with the title “Impact of AMO, PDO on 20-yr drought frequency (1900-1999)”.   The figures correspond to A: Warm PDO, cool AMO; B: Cool PDO, cool AMO; C: Warm PDO, warm AMO and D:  Cool PDO, warm AMO

The current Drought Monitor analysis shows a remarkable agreement with D, as shown below

As Judy shows in her talk (slide 8) since 1995 we have been in a warm phase of the AMO and have entered a cool phase of the PDO. This corresponds to D in the above figure.  Thus the current drought and heat is not an unprecedented event but part of the variations in atmospheric-ocean circulation features that we have seen in the past.  This reinforces what Judy wrote that

[w]e need a much broader range of scenarios for regions (historical data, simple models, statistical models, paleoclimate analyses

in our assessment of risks to key resources due to climate. Insightful discussions of the importance of these circulation features are also presented, as just a few excellent examples, by Joe Daleo  and Joe Bistardi on ICECAP, by Bob Tisdale at Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations, and in posts on Anthony Watts’s weblog Watts Up With That.

 

*   *   *

Hotter summers could be a part of Washington’s future

http://www.washingtonpost.com

By  and , Published: July 5

As relentless heat continues to pulverize Washington, the conversation has evolved from when will it end to what if it never does?

Are unbroken weeks of sweltering weather becoming the norm rather than the exception?

The answer to the first question is simple: Yes, it will end. Probably by Monday.

The answer to the second, however, is a little more complicated.

Call it a qualified yes.

“Trying to wrap an analysis around it in real time is like trying to diagnose a car wreck as the cars are still spinning,” said Deke Arndt, chief of climate monitoring at the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. “But we had record heat for the summer season on the Eastern Seaboard in 2010. We had not just record heat, but all-time record heat, in the summer season in 2011. And then you throw that on top of this [mild] winter and spring and the year to date so far, it’s very consistent with what we’d expect in a warming world.”

Nothing dreadfully dramatic is taking place — the seasons are not about to give way to an endless summer.

Heat-trapping greenhouse gases pumped into the atmosphere may be contributing to unusually hot and long heat waves — the kind of events climate scientists have long warned will become more common. Many anticipate a steady trend of ever-hotter average temperatures as human activity generates more and more carbon pollution.

To some, the numbers recorded this month and in recent years fit together to suggest a balmy future.

“We had a warm winter, a cold spring and now a real hot summer,” said Jessica Miller, 21, a visitor from Ohio, as she sat on a bench beneath the trees in Lafayette Square. “I think the overall weather patterns are changing.”

Another visitor, who sat nearby just across from the White House, shared a similar view.

“I think it’s a natural changing of the Earth’s average temperatures,” said Joe Kaufman, a Pennsylvanian who had just walked over from Georgetown.

Arndt said he expects data for the first half of this year will show that it was the warmest six months on record. Experts predict that average temperatures will rise by 3 to 5 degrees by mid-century and by 6 to 10 degrees by the end of the century.

If that worst prediction comes true, 98 degrees will become the new normal at this time of year in Washington 88 years from now.

Will every passing year till then break records?

“Not so much record-breaking every year,” Arndt said. “But we’ll break records on the warm end more often than on the cold end, that’s for sure. As we continue to warm, we will be flirting with warm records much more than with cold records, and that’s what’s played out over much of the last few years.”

If the present is our future, it may be sizzling. The current heat wave has had eight consecutive days of 95-degree weather. The temperature may reach 106 on Saturday, and the first break will come Monday, when a few days of more seasonable highs in the upper 80s are expected.

The hot streak began June 28 and peaked the next day with a 104-degree record-breaker, the hottest temperature ever recorded here in June. That broke a record of 102 set in 1874 and matched in June 2011.

 

 

Bolsa Família reduz violência, aponta estudo da PUC-Rio (O Globo)

Programa foi responsável por 21% da queda da criminalidade em SP

ALESSANDRA DUARTE
SÉRGIO ROXO
Publicado: 16/06/12 – 19h59/Atualizado: 16/06/12 – 20h28

Ana Clara (no centro, sentada) e outros alunos da José Lins do RegoFoto: Eliária AndradeAna Clara (no centro, sentada) e outros alunos da José Lins do Rego. ELIÁRIA ANDRADE.

RIO e SÃO PAULO – A redução da desigualdade com o Bolsa Família está chegando aos números da violência. Levantamento inédito feito na cidade de São Paulo por pesquisadores da PUC-Rio mostra que a expansão do programa na cidade foi responsável pela queda de 21% da criminalidade lá, devido principalmente à diminuição da desigualdade, diz a pesquisa. É o primeiro estudo a mostrar esse efeito do programa na violência.

Em 2008, o Bolsa Família, que até ali atendia a famílias com adolescentes até 15 anos, passou a incluir famílias com jovens de 16 e 17 anos. Feito pelos pesquisadores João Manoel Pinho de Mello, Laura Chioda e Rodrigo Soares para o Banco Mundial, o estudo comparou, de 2006 a 2009, o número de registros de ocorrência de vários crimes — roubos, assaltos, atos de vandalismo, crimes violentos (lesão corporal dolosa, estupro e homicídio), crimes ligados a drogas e contra menores —, nas áreas de cerca de 900 escolas públicas, antes e depois dessa expansão.

— Comparamos os índices de criminalidade antes e depois de 2008 nas áreas de escolas com ensino médio com maior e menor proporção de alunos beneficiários de 16 e 17 anos. Nas áreas das escolas com mais beneficiários de 16 e 17 anos, e que, logo, foi onde houve maior expansão do programa em 2008, houve queda maior. Pelos cálculos que fizemos, essa expansão do programa foi responsável por 21% do total da queda da criminalidade nesse período na cidade, que, segundo as estatísticas da polícia de São Paulo, foi de 63% para taxas de homicídio — explica João Manoel Pinho de Mello.

O motivo principal, dizem os autores, foi a queda da desigualdade causada pelo aumento da renda das famílias beneficiadas— Há muitas explicações de estudos que ligam queda da desigualdade à queda da violência: uma, mais sociológica, é que diminui a insatisfação social; outra, econômica, é que o ganho relativo com ações ilegais diminui — completa Rodrigo Soares. — Outra razão é que muda a interação social dos jovens ao terem de frequentar a escola e conviver mais com gente que estuda.

Reforma policial ajudou a reduzir crimes

Apesar de estudarem no bairro que já foi tido como um dos mais violentos do mundo, os alunos da Escola Estadual José Lins do Rego, no Jardim Ângela, periferia de São Paulo — com 1.765 alunos, dos quais 126 beneficiários do Bolsa Família —, dizem que os assaltos e brigas de gangues, por exemplo, estão no passado.

— Os usuários de drogas entravam na escola o tempo todo — conta Ana Clara da Silva, de 17 anos, aluna do ensino médio.

— Antes, você estava dando aula e tinha gente vigiando pela janela — diz a diretora Rosângela Karam.

Um dos principais pesquisadores do país sobre Bolsa Família, Rodolfo Hoffmann, professor de Economia da Unicamp, elogia o estudo da PUC-Rio:

— Há ali evidências de que a expansão do programa contribuiu para reduzir principalmente os crimes com motivação econômica — diz. — De 20% a 25% da redução da desigualdade no país podem ser atribuídos ao programa; mas há mais fatores, como maior valor real do salário mínimo e maior escolaridade.

Professora da Pós-Graduação em Economia da PUC-SP, Rosa Maria Marques também lembra que a redução de desigualdade não pode ser atribuída apenas ao Bolsa Família:

— Também houve aumento do emprego e da renda da população. E creio que a mudança na interação social dos jovens beneficiados contou muito.

Do Laboratório de Análise da Violência da Uerj, o professor Ignácio Cano concorda com a relação entre redução da desigualdade e queda da violência:

— Muitos estudos comparando dados internacionais já apontaram que onde cai desigualdade cai criminalidade.

Mas são as outras razões para a criminalidade que chamam a atenção de Michel Misse, coordenador do Núcleo de Estudos da Cidadania, Conflito e Violência Urbana da UFRJ. Misse destaca que a violência na capital paulista vem caindo por outros motivos desde o fim dos anos 1990:

— O estudo cobre bem os índices no entorno das escolas. Mas não controla as outras variáveis que interferem na queda de criminalidade. Em São Paulo, a violência vem caindo por pelo menos quatro fatores: reforma da polícia nos anos 2000; política de encarceramento maciça; falta de conflito entre quadrilhas devido ao monopólio de uma organização criminosa; e queda na taxa de jovens (maioria entre vítimas e autores de crimes), pelo menor crescimento vegetativo.

Para Misse, a influência do programa não foi pela desigualdade:

— É um erro supor que só pobres fornecem agentes para o crime; a maioria dos presos é pobre, mas a maioria dos pobres não é criminosa. Creio que, no caso do Bolsa Família, o que mais afetou a violência foi a criação de outra perspectiva para esses jovens, que passaram a ter de estudar.

Leia mais sobre esse assunto em http://oglobo.globo.com/pais/bolsa-familia-reduz-violencia-aponta-estudo-da-puc-rio-5229981#ixzz1zDlQ0onw
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Political Scientists Are Lousy Forecasters (N.Y.Times)

OPINION

Katia Fouquet

By JACQUELINE STEVENS
Published: June 23, 2012

DESPERATE “Action Alerts” land in my in-box. They’re from the American Political Science Association and colleagues, many of whom fear grave “threats” to our discipline. As a defense, they’ve supplied “talking points” we can use to tell Congressional representatives that political science is a “critical part of our national science agenda.”

Political scientists are defensive these days because in May the House passed an amendment to a bill eliminating National Science Foundation grants for political scientists. Soon the Senate may vote on similar legislation. Colleagues, especially those who have received N.S.F. grants, will loathe me for saying this, but just this once I’m sympathetic with the anti-intellectual Republicans behind this amendment. Why? The bill incited a national conversation about a subject that has troubled me for decades: the government — disproportionately — supports research that is amenable to statistical analyses and models even though everyone knows the clean equations mask messy realities that contrived data sets and assumptions don’t, and can’t, capture.

It’s an open secret in my discipline: in terms of accurate political predictions (the field’s benchmark for what counts as science), my colleagues have failed spectacularly and wasted colossal amounts of time and money. The most obvious example may be political scientists’ insistence, during the cold war, that the Soviet Union would persist as a nuclear threat to the United States. In 1993, in the journal International Security, for example, the cold war historian John Lewis Gaddis wrote that the demise of the Soviet Union was “of such importance that no approach to the study of international relations claiming both foresight and competence should have failed to see it coming.” And yet, he noted, “None actually did so.” Careers were made, prizes awarded and millions of research dollars distributed to international relations experts, even though Nancy Reagan’s astrologer may have had superior forecasting skills.

Political prognosticators fare just as poorly on domestic politics. In a peer-reviewed journal, the political scientist Morris P. Fiorina wrote that “we seem to have settled into a persistent pattern of divided government” — of Republican presidents and Democratic Congresses. Professor Fiorina’s ideas, which synced nicely with the conventional wisdom at the time, appeared in an article in 1992 — just before the Democrat Bill Clinton’s presidential victory and the Republican 1994 takeover of the House.

Alas, little has changed. Did any prominent N.S.F.-financed researchers predict that an organization like Al Qaeda would change global and domestic politics for at least a generation? Nope. Or that the Arab Spring would overthrow leaders in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia? No, again. What about proposals for research into questions that might favor Democratic politics and that political scientists seeking N.S.F. financing do not ask — perhaps, one colleague suggests, because N.S.F. program officers discourage them? Why are my colleagues kowtowing to Congress for research money that comes with ideological strings attached?

The political scientist Ted Hopf wrote in a 1993 article that experts failed to anticipate the Soviet Union’s collapse largely because the military establishment played such a big role in setting the government’s financing priorities. “Directed by this logic of the cold war, research dollars flowed from private foundations, government agencies and military individual bureaucracies.” Now, nearly 20 years later, the A.P.S.A. Web site trumpets my colleagues’ collaboration with the government, “most notably in the area of defense,” as a reason to retain political science N.S.F. financing.

Many of today’s peer-reviewed studies offer trivial confirmations of the obvious and policy documents filled with egregious, dangerous errors. My colleagues now point to research by the political scientists and N.S.F. grant recipients James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin that claims that civil wars result from weak states, and are not caused by ethnic grievances. Numerous scholars have, however, convincingly criticized Professors Fearon and Laitin’s work. In 2011 Lars-Erik Cederman, Nils B. Weidmann and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch wrote in the American Political Science Review that “rejecting ‘messy’ factors, like grievances and inequalities,” which are hard to quantify, “may lead to more elegant models that can be more easily tested, but the fact remains that some of the most intractable and damaging conflict processes in the contemporary world, including Sudan and the former Yugoslavia, are largely about political and economic injustice,” an observation that policy makers could glean from a subscription to this newspaper and that nonetheless is more astute than the insights offered by Professors Fearon and Laitin.

How do we know that these examples aren’t atypical cherries picked by a political theorist munching sour grapes? Because in the 1980s, the political psychologist Philip E. Tetlock began systematically quizzing 284 political experts — most of whom were political science Ph.D.’s — on dozens of basic questions, like whether a country would go to war, leave NATO or change its boundaries or a political leader would remain in office. His book “Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?” won the A.P.S.A.’s prize for the best book published on government, politics or international affairs.

Professor Tetlock’s main finding? Chimps randomly throwing darts at the possible outcomes would have done almost as well as the experts.

These results wouldn’t surprise the guru of the scientific method, Karl Popper, whose 1934 book “The Logic of Scientific Discovery” remains the cornerstone of the scientific method. Yet Mr. Popper himself scoffed at the pretensions of the social sciences: “Long-term prophecies can be derived from scientific conditional predictions only if they apply to systems which can be described as well-isolated, stationary, and recurrent. These systems are very rare in nature; and modern society is not one of them.”

Government can — and should — assist political scientists, especially those who use history and theory to explain shifting political contexts, challenge our intuitions and help us see beyond daily newspaper headlines. Research aimed at political prediction is doomed to fail. At least if the idea is to predict more accurately than a dart-throwing chimp.

To shield research from disciplinary biases of the moment, the government should finance scholars through a lottery: anyone with a political science Ph.D. and a defensible budget could apply for grants at different financing levels. And of course government needs to finance graduate student studies and thorough demographic, political and economic data collection. I look forward to seeing what happens to my discipline and politics more generally once we stop mistaking probability studies and statistical significance for knowledge.

Jacqueline Stevens is a professor of political science at Northwestern University and the author, most recently, of “States Without Nations: Citizenship for Mortals.”

A version of this op-ed appeared in print on June 24, 2012, on page SR6 of the New York edition with the headline: Political Scientists Are Lousy Forecasters.

Life After Rio: A commentary by Mark Halle, IISD

June 2012

June 23 and the planet continues its slow decline, uninterrupted by the sustainable development summit that has just finished in Rio. Yet another UN mega-conference ends in disappointment, the low expectations fully justified. Once again, our governments have failed to demonstrate leadership, have lacked courage to make the compromises necessary to ensure a fairer, more
stable world. Once again they have kept their eyes riveted on short-term electoral deadlines and sold out future generations. We have come to a sorry pass.

When, two years ago, the UN decided to hold this conference, there was no particular reason for it except that the twentieth anniversary of the original Earth Summit was looming. There were plenty of general reasons, including the fact that most of the decisions taken in 1992 have been ignored, most of the agreed actions never taken, and the planet has continued to decline.

But nothing suggested that the necessary political will could be mustered to take transformative steps, to agree game-changing resolutions, or even to stimulate implementation of the myriad decisions, resolutions and undertakings that were made in Rio in 1992 or in the two decades since. (…)

Read the whole text here.

Sustentabilidade será tema obrigatório no ensino superior a partir de 2013 (EcoD)

Ensino Superior
29/6/2012 – 09h09

por Redação EcoD

c312 Sustentabilidade será tema obrigatório no ensino superior a partir de 2013A educação ambiental só é adotada atualmente no ensino básico. Foto: Agriculturasp

No último dia da Conferência das Nações Unidas sobre Desenvolvimento Sustentável, a Rio+20, o Brasil anunciou a adoção de um compromisso voluntário que pode render bons frutos. A partir do próximo ano, a sustentabilidade deverá constar no currículo acadêmico de todas as universidades brasileiras.

A intenção é que, futuramente, o tema seja incorporado da pré-escola ao ensino médio. “Não faz sentido ensinar finanças sem ensinar ética ou meio ambiente. Educação superior é o começo, mas tem que ser em todas as séries. Incentivo a todos que façam ações. Não é só compromisso financeiro, precisamos de comprometimento dos governos”, afirmou à Agência Brasil o conselheiro do Conselho Nacional de Educação, Antônio Freitas Junior.

Embora tenha sido anunciada durante a Conferência, a medida foi publicada no Diário Oficial no dia 18 de junho. A lei especifica apenas que o assunto deverá ser abordado de forma interdisciplinar e contínua, sem necessariamente ser uma disciplina à parte. Na prática, isto significa que é um tema que deve ser abordado em todas as disciplinas, sem ser conteúdo obrigatório de nenhuma.

Obrigatoriedade

Atualmente, a educação ambiental é adotada, também como tema transversal, no ensino básico pelo Ministério da Educação (MEC). Desde abril de 2011, tramita na Comissão de Educação e Cultura da Câmara dos Deputados o Projeto de Lei 876/2011, que propõe alterar a Política Nacional de Educação Ambiental, tornando-a disciplina obrigatória – e, portanto, específica – no ensino fundamental e no médio.

“A sustentabilidade permeia todas as áreas, os enfoques é que são diferentes. Por exemplo, foi descoberto que o gás que sai do motor a diesel causa câncer. Então, um engenheiro mecânico tem que saber muito mais sobre esse assunto”, ressaltou o conselheiro.

Confira a medida na íntegra aqui e aqui.

* Publicado originalmente no site EcoD.

What was he thinking? Study turns to ape intellect (AP)

By SETH BORENSTEIN-Associated Press Sunday, June 24, 2012

WASHINGTON (AP) – The more we study animals, the less special we seem.

Baboons can distinguish between written words and gibberish. Monkeys seem to be able to do multiplication. Apes can delay instant gratification longer than a human child can. They plan ahead. They make war and peace. They show empathy. They share.

“It’s not a question of whether they think _ it’s how they think,” says Duke University scientist Brian Hare. Now scientists wonder if apes are capable of thinking about what other apes are thinking.

The evidence that animals are more intelligent and more social than we thought seems to grow each year, especially when it comes to primates. It’s an increasingly hot scientific field with the number of ape and monkey cognition studies doubling in recent years, often with better technology and neuroscience paving the way to unusual discoveries.

This month scientists mapping the DNA of the bonobo ape found that, like the chimp, bonobos are only 1.3 percent different from humans.

Says Josep Call, director of the primate research center at the Max Planck Institute in Germany: “Every year we discover things that we thought they could not do.”

Call says one of his recent more surprising studies showed that apes can set goals and follow through with them.

Orangutans and bonobos in a zoo were offered eight possible tools _ two of which would help them get at some food. At times when they chose the proper tool, researchers moved the apes to a different area before they could get the food, and then kept them waiting as much as 14 hours. In nearly every case, when the apes realized they were being moved, they took their tool with them so they could use it to get food the next day, remembering that even after sleeping. The goal and series of tasks didn’t leave the apes’ minds.

Call says this is similar to a person packing luggage a day before a trip: “For humans it’s such a central ability, it’s so important.”

For a few years, scientists have watched chimpanzees in zoos collect and store rocks as weapons for later use. In May, a study found they even add deception to the mix. They created haystacks to conceal their stash of stones from opponents, just like nations do with bombs.

Hare points to studies where competing chimpanzees enter an arena where one bit of food is hidden from view for only one chimp. The chimp that can see the hidden food, quickly learns that his foe can’t see it and uses that to his advantage, displaying the ability to perceive another ape’s situation. That’s a trait humans develop as toddlers, but something we thought other animals never got, Hare said.

And then there is the amazing monkey memory.

At the National Zoo in Washington, humans who try to match their recall skills with an orangutan’s are humbled. Zoo associate director Don Moore says: “I’ve got a Ph.D., for God’s sake, you would think I could out-think an orang and I can’t.”

In French research, at least two baboons kept memorizing so many pictures _ several thousand _ that after three years researchers ran out of time before the baboons reached their limit. Researcher Joel Fagot at the French National Center for Scientific Research figured they could memorize at least 10,000 and probably more.

And a chimp in Japan named Ayumu who sees strings of numbers flash on a screen for a split-second regularly beats humans at accurately duplicating the lineup. He’s a YouTube sensation, along with orangutans in a Miami zoo that use iPads.

How “sustainability” became “sustained growth” (The Guardian)

The Rio Declaration rips up the basic principles of environmental action.

BY GLOBAL JUSTICE ECOLOGY PROJECT | JUNE 23, 2012 · 9:25 AM

By George Monbiot, published on the Guardian’s website

June 22, 2012. In 1992 world leaders signed up to something called “sustainability”. Few of them were clear about what it meant; I suspect that many of them had no idea. Perhaps as a result, it did not take long for this concept to mutate into something subtly different: “sustainable development”. Then it made a short jump to another term: “sustainable growth”. And now, in the 2012 Earth Summit text that world leaders are about to adopt, it has subtly mutated once more: into “sustained growth”.

This term crops up 16 times in the document, where it is used interchangeably with sustainability and sustainable development. But if sustainability means anything, it is surely the opposite of sustained growth. Sustained growth on a finite planet is the essence of unsustainability.

As Robert Skidelsky, who comes at this issue from a different angle, observes in the Guardian today:

“Aristotle knew of insatiability only as a personal vice; he had no inkling of the collective, politically orchestrated insatiability that we call economic growth. The civilization of “always more” would have struck him as moral and political madness. And, beyond a certain point, it is also economic madness. This is not just or mainly because we will soon enough run up against the natural limits to growth. It is because we cannot go on for much longer economising on labour faster than we can find new uses for it.”

Several of the more outrageous deletions proposed by the United States – such as any mention of rights or equity or of common but differentiated responsibilities – have been rebuffed. In other respects the Obama government’s purge has succeeded, striking out such concepts as “unsustainable consumption and production patterns” and the proposed decoupling of economic growth from the use of natural resources.

At least the states due to sign this document haven’t ripped up the declarations from the last Earth Summit, 20 years ago. But in terms of progress since then, that’s as far as it goes. Reaffirming the Rio 1992 commitments is perhaps the most radical principle in the entire declaration.

As a result, the draft document, which seems set to become the final document, takes us precisely nowhere. 190 governments have spent 20 years bracing themselves to “acknowledge”, “recognise” and express “deep concern” about the world’s environmental crises, but not to do anything about them.

This paragraph from the declaration sums up the problem for me:

“We recognize that the planet Earth and its ecosystems are our home and that Mother Earth is a common expression in a number of countries and regions and we note that some countries recognize the rights of nature in the context of the promotion of sustainable development. We are convinced that in order to achieve a just balance among the economic, social and environment needs of present and future generations, it is necessary to promote harmony with nature.”

It sounds lovely, doesn’t it? It could be illustrated with rainbows and psychedelic unicorns and stuck on the door of your toilet. But without any proposed means of implementation, it might just as well be deployed for a different function in the same room.

The declaration is remarkable for its absence of figures, dates and targets. It is as stuffed with meaningless platitudes as an advertisement for payday loans, but without the necessary menace. There is nothing to work with here, no programme, no sense of urgency or call for concrete action beyond the inadequate measures already agreed in previous flaccid declarations. Its tone and contents would be better suited to a retirement homily than a response to a complex of escalating global crises.

The draft and probably final declaration is 283 paragraphs of fluff. It suggests that the 190 governments due to approve it have, in effect, given up on multilateralism, given up on the world and given up on us. So what do we do now? That is the topic I intend to address in my column next week.

Indígenas querem cultura como pilar da sustentabilidade (IPS)

Por Clarinha Glock*

Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, 22/6/2012 (TerraViva) – Uma comitiva de 25 indígenas do Brasil, Filipinas, Estados Unidos, Guatemala, Argentina e México chamou a atenção dos participantes da Rio+20. Com suas músicas e gritos, pinturas e roupas típicas, eles se reuniram perto das bandeiras símbolos do evento, no Riocentro, para entregar a Declaração da Kari-Oca 2 aos representantes do Brasil e das Nações Unidas. Outros 400 indígenas não puderam entrar – ficaram retidos na barreira de soldados, a poucos metros da entrada do principal pavilhão. A aldeia instalada em Jacarepaguá reuniu cerca de 600 indígenas de quase todo o mundo que analisaram a situação dos povos desde a Rio 92.

c211 Indígenas querem cultura como pilar da sustentabilidadeMarcos Terena e Gilberto Carvalho: reconhecimento dos direitos indígenas. Foto: Clarinha Glock

“Estamos conscientes da história de massacre dos povos indígenas no Brasil e sabemos de nossa dívida com os índios”, falou o ministro Gilberto Carvalho, da Secretaria Geral da Presidência da República, que recebeu o documento em nome da presidenta Dilma Rousseff. Carvalho acompanhou parte da caminhada. “Não há como não se comprometer. Deus e a Mãe Terra abençoe todos vocês”, falou, pouco antes de entrar no Riocentro para a cerimônia de entrega da Declaração a Nikhil Seth, diretor para Desenvolvimento Sustentável das Nações Unidas. Foi um encontro amigável, de boas intenções, em que as denúncias de violações dos direitos dos indígenas, presente durante todos os dias da Rio+20 nas discussões da Kari-Oca e da Cúpula dos Povos, foi apresentada na Declaração e através de depoimentos emocionados como o de Tom Goldtooth, em nome dos povos Navajo e Dakota, dos Estados Unidos: “Este documento representa o espírito de nossos ancestrais, dos que não estão aqui porque não puderam vir, e das gerações futuras”, anunciou Goldtooth. Berenice Sanches Nahua, do México, reiterou que a economia verde não pode ser encarada como uma solução, se é a causa do problema, e o REDD (Redução de Emissões por Desmatamento e Degradação) é o coração da economia verde. “Na prática, esperamos que o governo brasileiro estabeleça uma política de participação indígena, porque mostramos essa capacidade aqui”, disse o líder brasileiro Marcos Terena a Terraviva, pouco antes de encontrar o representante da ONU.

Em seu discurso, Terena ressaltou que a Declaração tem recomendações simples. “Convidamos toda a sociedade civil a proteger e a promover os nossos direitos… em harmonia com a Natureza, solidariedade, coletividade, e valores, como cuidar e compartilhar. Se a ONU quer criar um mundo justo, precisa ouvir a voz indígena sobre equilíbrio e sustentabilidade. Nesse sentido, nossa recomendação para a Rio 20 é a inclusão da cultura como quarto pilar do desenvolvimento sustentável”, afirmou Terena. E finalizou com um pedido: três minutos para falar na Conferência. “Acreditamos que em três minutos podemos ajudar a fazer uma nova Nações Unidas”.

Em nome do Secretário Geral das Nações Unidas, Nikhil Seth disse que a ONU vai fazer todo o possível para encorajar os governos a respeitarem e honrarem a cultura e as tradições, a terra e a espiritualidade dos povos indígenas. Segundo Seth, o documento final reconhece explicitamente os direitos dos indígenas e a ONU vai fazer “todo o possível para respeitar e honrar os resultados da Rio+20”. Seth prometeu repassar ao secretariado o pedido de Terena para falar na plenária. Ao final, o líder espiritual que abriu a Kari-Oca há uma semana fez uma reza simbólica e Terena convidou para o encerramento do fogo sagrado marcado para as 13h do dia 22, data de encerramento da Conferência. (TerraViva)

* Publicado originalmente no site TerraViva.

 

Declaração final da Cúpula dos Povos na Rio+20

Sexta-feira, 22 junho, 2012

Home 1

O documento final da Cúpula dos povos sintetiza os principais eixos discutidos durante as plenárias e assembléias, assim como expressam as intensas mobilizações ocorridas durante esse período – de 15 a 22 de junho – que apontam as convergências em torno das causas estruturais e das falsas soluções, das soluções dos povos frente às crises, assim como os principais eixos de luta para o próximo período.

As sínteses aprovadas nas plenárias integram e complementam este documento político para que os povos, movimentos e organizações possam continuar a convergir e aprofundar suas lutas e construção de alternativas em seus territórios, regiões e países em todos os cantos do mundo.
Você também pode ler a carta aqui (em pdf).

Declaração final
Cúpula dos Povos na Rio+20 por Justiça Social e Ambiental
Em defesa dos bens comuns, contra a mercantilização da vida

Movimentos sociais e populares, sindicatos, povos, organizações da sociedade civil e ambientalistas de todo o mundo presentes na Cúpula dos Povos na Rio+20 por Justiça Social e Ambiental, vivenciaram nos acampamentos, nas mobilizações massivas, nos debates, a construção das convergências e alternativas, conscientes de que somos sujeitos de uma outra relação entre humanos e humanas e entre a humanidade e a natureza, assumindo o desafio urgente de frear a nova fase de recomposição do capitalismo e de construir, através de nossas lutas, novos paradigmas de sociedade.

A Cúpula dos Povos é o momento simbólico de um novo ciclo na trajetória de lutas globais que produz novas convergências entre movimentos de mulheres, indígenas, negros, juventudes, agricultores/as familiares e camponeses, trabalhadore/as, povos e comunidades tradicionais, quilombolas, lutadores pelo direito a cidade, e religiões de todo o mundo. As assembléias, mobilizações e a grande Marcha dos Povos foram os momentos de expressão máxima destas convergências.

As instituições financeiras multilaterais, as coalizações a serviço do sistema financeiro, como o G8/G20, a captura corporativa da ONU e a maioria dos governos demonstraram irresponsabilidade com o futuro da humanidade e do planeta e promoveram os interesses das corporações na conferencia oficial. Em constraste a isso, a vitalidade e a força das mobilizações e dos debates na Cúpula dos Povos fortaleceram a nossa convicção de que só o povo organizado e mobilizado pode libertar o mundo do controle das corporações e do capital financeiro.

Há vinte anos o Fórum Global, também realizado no Aterro do Flamengo, denunciou os riscos que a humanidade e a natureza corriam com a privatização e o neoliberalismo. Hoje afirmamos que, além de confirmar nossa análise, ocorreram retrocessos significativos em relação aos direitos humanos já reconhecidos. A Rio+20 repete o falido roteiro de falsas soluções defendidas pelos mesmos atores que provocaram a crise global. À medida que essa crise se aprofunda, mais as corporações avançam contra os direitos dos povos, a democracia e a natureza, sequestrando os bens comuns da humanidade para salvar o sistema economico-financeiro.

As múltiplas vozes e forças que convergem em torno da Cúpula dos Povos denunciam a verdadeira causa estrutural da crise global: o sistema capitalista patriarcal, racista e homofobico.

As corporações transnacionais continuam cometendo seus crimes com a sistematica violação dos direitos dos povos e da natureza com total impunidade. Da mesma forma, avançam seus interesses através da militarização, da criminalização dos modos de vida dos povos e dos movimentos sociais promovendo a desterritorialização no campo e na cidade.
Da mesma forma denunciamos a divida ambiental histórica que afeta majoritariamente os povos oprimidos do mundo, e que deve ser assumida pelos países altamente industrializados, que ao fim e ao cabo, foram os que provocaram as múltiplas crises que vivemos hoje.

O capitalismo também leva à perda do controle social, democrático e comunitario sobre los recursos naturais e serviços estratégicos, que continuam sendo privatizados, convertendo direitos em mercadorias e limitando o acesso dos povos aos bens e serviços necessarios à sobrevivencia.
A dita “economia verde” é uma das expressões da atual fase financeira do capitalismo que também se utiliza de velhos e novos mecanismos, tais como o aprofundamento do endividamento publico-privado, o super-estímulo ao consumo, a apropriação e concentração das novas tecnologias, os mercados de carbono e biodiversidade, a grilagem e estrangeirização de terras e as parcerias público-privadas, entre outros.

As alternativas estão em nossos povos, nossa historia, nossos costumes, conhecimentos, práticas e sistemas produtivos, que devemos manter, revalorizar e ganhar escala como projeto contra-hegemonico e transformador.
A defesa dos espaços públicos nas cidades, com gestão democrática e participação popular, a economia cooperativa e solidaria, a soberania alimentar, um novo paradigma de produção, distribuição e consumo, a mudança da matriz energética, são exemplos de alternativas reais frente ao atual sistema agro-urbano-industrial.

A defesa dos bens comuns passa pela garantia de uma série de direitos humanos e da natureza, pela solidariedade e respeito às cosmovisões e crenças dos diferentes povos, como, por exemplo, a defesa do “Bem Viver” como forma de existir em harmonia com a natureza, o que pressupõe uma transição justa a ser construída com os trabalhadores/as e povos.

Exigimos uma transição justa que supõe a ampliação do conceito de trabalho, o reconhecimento do trabalho das mulheres e um equilíbrio entre a produção e reprodução, para que esta não seja uma atribuição exclusiva das mulheres. Passa ainda pela liberdade de organização e o direito a contratação coletiva, assim como pelo estabelecimento de uma ampla rede de seguridade e proteção social, entendida como um direito humano, bem como de políticas públicas que garantam formas de trabalho decentes.

Afirmamos o feminismo como instrumento da construção da igualdade, a autonomia das mulheres sobre seus corpos e sexualidade e o direito a uma vida livre de violência. Da mesma forma reafirmamos a urgência da distribuição de riqueza e da renda, do combate ao racismo e ao etnocídio, da garantia do direito a terra e território, do direito à cidade, ao meio ambiente e à água, à educação, a cultura, a liberdade de expressão e democratização dos meios de comunicação.

O fortalecimento de diversas economias locais e dos direitos territoriais garantem a construção comunitária de economias mais vibrantes. Estas economias locais proporcionam meios de vida sustentáveis locais, a solidariedade comunitária, componentes vitais da resiliência dos ecossistemas. A diversidade da natureza e sua diversidade cultural associada é fundamento para um novo paradigma de sociedade.

Os povos querem determinar para que e para quem se destinam os bens comuns e energéticos, além de assumir o controle popular e democrático de sua produção. Um novo modelo enérgico está baseado em energias renováveis descentralizadas e que garanta energia para a população e não para as corporações.

A transformação social exige convergências de ações, articulações e agendas a partir das resistências e alternativas contra hegemônicas ao sistema capitalista que estão em curso em todos os cantos do planeta. Os processos sociais acumulados pelas organizações e movimentos sociais que convergiram na Cúpula dos Povos apontaram para os seguintes eixos de luta:

  • Contra a militarização dos Estados e territórios;
  • Contra a criminalização das organizações e movimentos sociais;
  • Contra a violência contra as mulheres;
  • Contra a violência as lesbicas, gays, bissexuais, transexuais e transgeneros;
  • Contra as grandes corporações;
  • Contra a imposição do pagamento de dívidas econômicas injustas e por auditorias populares das mesmas;
  • Pela garantia do direito dos povos à terra e território urbano e rural;
  • Pela consulta e consentimento livre, prévio e informado, baseado nos princípios da boa fé e do efeito vinculante, conforme a Convenção 169 da OIT;
  • Pela soberania alimentar e alimentos sadios, contra agrotóxicos e transgênicos;
  • Pela garantia e conquista de direitos;
  • Pela solidariedade aos povos e países, principalmente os ameaçados por golpes militares ou institucionais, como está ocorrendo agora no Paraguai;
  • Pela soberania dos povos no controle dos bens comuns, contra as tentativas de mercantilização;
  • Pela mudança da matriz e modelo energético vigente;
  • Pela democratização dos meios de comunicação;
  • Pelo reconhecimento da dívida histórica social e ecológica;
  • Pela construção do DIA MUNDIAL DE GREVE GERAL.

Voltemos aos nossos territórios, regiões e países animados para construirmos as convergências necessárias para seguirmos em luta, resistindo e avançando contra os sistema capitalista e suas velhas e renovadas formas de reprodução.

Em pé continuamos em luta!

Rio de Janeiro, 15 a 22 de junho de 2012.
Cúpula dos Povos por Justiça Social e ambiental em defesa dos bens comuns, contra a mercantilização da vida.

DECLARACION DE KARI-OCA 2012

DECLARACION DE KARI-OCA 2012

“CONFERENCIA MUNDIAL DE LOS PUEBLOS INDIGENAS

SOBRE RIO+20 Y LA MADRE TIERRA” 13 -22 Junio 2012

Nosotros, los Pueblos Indígenas de la Madre Tierra reunidos en la sede de Kari-Oca I Sacred Kari-Oka Púku en Rio de Janeiro para participar en la Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre Desarrollo Sostenible Rio+20, agradecemos a los Pueblos Indígenas de Brasil por darnos la bienvenida a sus territorios. Reafirmamos nuestra responsabilidad para hablar para la protección y del bienestar de la Madre Tierra, la naturaleza y las futuras generaciones de nuestros Pueblos Indígenas y toda la humanidad y la vida. Reconocemos el significado de esta segunda convocatoria de los Pueblos Indígenas del mundo y reafirmamos la reunión histórica de 1992 de Kari-Oca I, donde los Pueblos Indígenas emitieron la Declaración de Kari-Oca y la Carta de la Tierra de los Pueblos Indígenas. La conferencia de Kari-Oca y la movilización de los Pueblos Indígenas durante la Cumbre de la Tierra, marcó un gran avance del movimiento internacional para los derechos de los Pueblos Indígenas y el papel importante que desempeñamos en la conservación y el desarrollo sostenible. Reafirmamos también la Declaración de Manaos sobre la convocatoria de Kari-Oca 2 como el encuentro internacional de los Pueblos Indígenas en Río+20.

La institucionalización del colonialismo

Consideramos que los objetivos de la Cumbre de las Naciones Unidas sobre Desarrollo Sostenible (UNCSD) Río+20, la “Economía Verde” y su premisa de que el mundo sólo puede “salvar” a la naturaleza por mercantilizar sus capacidades de dar vida y sostener la vida como una continuación del colonialismo que los Pueblos Indígenas y nuestra Madre Tierra han resistido durante 520 años. La “Economía Verde” se promete erradicar la pobreza, pero en realidad sólo va a favorecer y responder a las empresas multinacionales y el capitalismo. Se trata de una continuación de una economía global basada en los combustibles fósiles, la destrucción del medio ambiente mediante la explotación de la naturaleza a través de las industrias extractivas, tales como la minería, la explotación y producción petrolera, la agricultura intensiva de mono-cultivos y otras inversiones capitalistas. Todos estos esfuerzos están dirigidos hacia las ganancias y la acumulación de capital por unos pocos.

Desde Rio 1992, nosotros como Pueblos Indígenas vemos que el colonialismo se ha convertido en la base de la globalización del comercio y la hegemónica economía capitalista mundial. Se han intensificado la explotación y el saqueo de los ecosistemas y biodiversidad del mundo, así como la violación los derechos inherentes de los pueblos indígenas. Nuestro derecho a la libre determinación, a nuestra propia gobernanza y a nuestro desarrollo libremente determinado, nuestros derechos inherentes a nuestras tierras, territorios y recursos están cada vez más atacados por una colaboración de gobiernos y empresas transnacionales. Activistas y líderes indígenas que defienden sus territorios siguen sufriendo represión, militarización, incluyendo asesinatos, encarcelamientos, hostigamiento y calificación como “terroristas”. La violación de nuestros derechos colectivos enfrenta la misma impunidad. La reubicación forzosa o asimilación amenaza nuestras futuras generaciones, culturas, idiomas, espiritualidad y relación con la Madre Tierra, económica y políticamente.

Nosotros, pueblos indígenas de todas las regiones del mundo, hemos defendido a Nuestra Madre Tierra de las agresiones del desarrollo no sustentable y la sobreexplotación de nuestros recursos por minería, maderería, megarepresas hidroeléctricas, exploración y extracción petrolera. Nuestros bosques sufren por la producción de agrocombustibles, biomasa, plantaciones y otras imposiciones como las falsas soluciones al cambio climático y el desarrollo no sustentable y dañino.

La Economía Verde es nada menos que capitalismo de la naturaleza; un esfuerzo perverso de las grandes empresas, las industrias extractivas y los gobiernos para convertir en dinero toda la Creación mediante la privatización, mercantilización y venta de lo Sagrado y todas las formas de vida, así como el cielo, incluyendo el aire que respiramos, el agua que bebemos y todos los genes, plantas, semillas criollas, árboles, animales, peces, diversidad biológica y cultural, ecosistemas y conocimientos tradicionales que hacen posible y disfrutable la vida sobre la tierra.

Violaciónes graves de los derechos de los pueblos indígenas a la soberanía alimentaria continúan sin cesar lo que da lugar a la “inseguridad” alimentaria. Nuestra propia producción de alimentos, las plantas que nos reunimos, los animales que cazamos, nuestros campos y las cosechas, el agua que bebemos y el agua a nuestros campos, los peces que pescamos de nuestros ríos y arroyos, está disminuyendo a un ritmo alarmante. Proyectos de desarrollo no sostenibles, tales como mono-culturales plantaciones de soja químicamente intensiva, las industrias extractivas como la minería y otros proyectos destructivos del medioambiente y las inversiones con fines de lucro están destruyendo nuestra biodiversidad, envenenando nuestra agua, nuestros ríos, arroyos, y la tierra y su capacidad para mantener la vida. Esto se agrava aún más por el cambio climático y las represas hidroeléctricas y otras formas de producción de energía que afectan a todo el ecosistema y su capacidad para proveer la vida. La soberanía alimentaria es una expresión fundamental de nuestro derecho colectivo a la libre determinación y desarrollo sustentable. La soberanía alimentaria y el derecho a la alimentación deben ser reconocido y respetados: alimentación no debe ser mercancía que se utiliza, comercializada o especula con fines de lucro. Nutre nuestras identidades, nuestras culturas e idiomas, y nuestra capacidad para sobrevivir como pueblos indígenas.

La Madre Tierra es la fuente de la vida que se requiere proteger, no como un recurso para ser explotado y mercantilizado como “capital natural”. Tenemos nuestro lugar y nuestras responsabilidades dentro del orden sagrado de la Creación. Sentimos la alegría sustentadora cuando las cosas ocurren en armonía con la Tierra y con toda la vida que crea y sostiene. Sentimos el dolor de la falta de armonía cuando somos testigos de la deshonra del orden natural de la Creación y la colonización económica y continua y la degradación de la Madre Tierra y toda la vida en ella. Hasta que los derechos de los pueblos indígenas sean observados, velados y respetados, el desarrollo sustentable y la erradicación de la pobreza no se lograrán.

La Solución

La relación inseparable entre los seres humanos y la Tierra, inherente para los pueblos indígenas debe ser respetada por el bien de las generaciones futuras y toda la humanidad. Instamos a toda la humanidad a unirse con nosotros para transformar las estructuras sociales, las instituciones y relaciones de poder que son la base de nuestra pobreza, opresión y explotación. La globalización imperialista explota todo lo que sostiene la vida y daña la tierra. Necesitamos reorientar totalmente la producción y el consumo en base de las necesidades humanas en lugar de la acumulación desenfrenada de ganancia de para unos pocos. La sociedad debe tomar control colectivo de los recursos productivos para satisfacer las necesidades de desarrollo social sostenible y evitar la sobreproducción, el sobreconsumo y la sobreexplotación de las personas y la naturaleza que son inevitables bajo prevaleciente sistema capitalista monopólico. Debemos enfocar sobre comunidades sostenibles con base en conocimientos indígena sy no desarrollo capitalista.

Exigimos que las Naciones Unidas, los gobiernos y las empresas abandonen las falsas soluciones al cambio climático, tales como las grandes represas hidroeléctricas, los organismos genéticamente modificados, incluyendo los árboles transgénicos, las plantaciones, los agrocombustibles, el “carbón limpio”, la energía nuclear, el gas natural, el fracturamiento hidráulico, la nanotecnología, la biología sintética, la bioenergía, la biomasa, el biochar, la geo-ingeniería, los mercados de carbono, el Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio y REDD+ que ponen en peligro el futuro y la vida tal como la conocemos. En lugar de ayudar a reducir el calentamiento global, ellos envenenan y destruyen el medio ambiente y dejan que la crisis climática aumente exponencialmente, lo que puede dejar el planeta prácticamente inhabitable. No podemos permitir que las falsas soluciones destruyan el equilibrio de la Tierra, asesinen a las estaciones, desencadenen el caos del mal tiempo, privaticen la vida y amenacen la supervivencia de la humanidad. La Economía Verde es un crimen de lesa humanidad y contra la Tierra.

Para lograr el desarrollo sostenible los Estados deben reconocer los sistemas tradicionales de manejo de recursos de los pueblos indígenas que han existido por milenios, sosteniéndonos aún durante el colonialismo. Es fundamental asegurar la participación activa de los pueblos indígenas en los procesos de toma de decisiones que les afectan y su derecho al consentimiento libre, previo e informado. Los Estados también deben proporcionar apoyo a los pueblos indígenas que sea apropiada a su sustentabilidad y prioridades libremente determinadas, sin restricciones y directrices limitantes.

Seguiremos luchando contra la construcción de represas hidroeléctricas y todas las formas de producción de energía que afectan a nuestras aguas, nuestros peces, nuestra biodiversidad y los ecosistemas que contribuyen a nuestra soberanía alimentaria. Trabajaremos para preservar nuestros territorios contra el veneno de las plantaciones de monocultivos, de las industrias extractivas y otros proyectos destructivos del medioambiente, y continuar nuestras formas de vida, preservando nuestras culturas e identidades. Trabajaremos para preservar nuestras plantas y las semillas tradicionales, y mantener el equilibrio entre nuestras necesidades y las necesidades de nuestra Madre Tierra y su capacidad de sostener la vida. Demostraremos al mundo que se puede y se debe hacer. En todos estos asuntos recopilaremos y organizaremos la solidaridad de todos los pueblos indígenas de todas partes del mundo, y todas las demás fuentes de solidaridad con los no indígenas de buena voluntad a unirse a nuestra lucha por la soberanía alimentaria y la seguridad alimentaria. Rechazamos la privatización y el control corporativo de los recursos, tales como nuestras semillas tradicionales y de los alimentos. Por último, exigimos a los estados a defender nuestros derechos al control de nuestros sistemas de gestión tradicionales y ofreciendo un apoyo concreto, tales como las tecnologías apropiadas para que podamos desarrollar nuestra soberanía alimentaria.

Rechazamos las promesas falsas del desarrollo sostenible y soluciones al cambio climático que solamente sirven al orden económico dominante. Rechazamos REDD, REDD+ y otras soluciones basadas en el mercado que tienen como enfoque nuestros bosques, para seguir violando nuestros derechos inherentes a la libre determinación y el derecho a nuestras tierras, territorios, aguas y recursos, y el derecho de la Tierra a crear y sostener la vida. No existe tal cosa como “minería sostenible”. No hay tal cosa como “petróleo ético”.

Rechazamos la aplicación de derechos de propiedad intelectual sobre los recursos genéticos y el conocimiento tradicional de los pueblos indígenas que resulta en la enajenación y mercantilización de lo Sagrado esencial para nuestras vidas y culturas. Rechazamos las formas industriales de la producción alimentaria que promueve el uso de agrotóxicos, semillas y organismos transgénicos. Por lo tanto, afirmamos nuestro derecho a poseer, controlar, proteger y heredar las semillas criollas, plantas medicinales y los conocimientos tradicionales provenientes de nuestras tierras y territorios para el beneficio de nuestras futuras generaciones.

Nuestro Compromiso con el Futuro que Queremos

Debido a la falta de implementación verdadera del desarrollo sostenible el mundo está en múltiples crisis ecológicas, económicas y climáticas; incluyendo la pérdida de biodiversidad, desertificación, el derretimiento de los glaciares, escases de alimentos, agua y energía, una recesión económica mundial que se agudiza, la inestabilidad social y la crisis de valores. En ese sentido, reconocemos que queda mucho que hacer para que los acuerdos internacionales respondan adecuadamente a los derechos y necesidades de los pueblos indígenas. Las contribuciones actuales y potenciales de nuestros pueblos deben ser reconocidas como un desarrollo sostenible y verdadero para nuestras comunidades que permita que cada uno de nosotros alcancemos el Buen Vivir.

Como pueblos, reafirmamos nuestro derecho a la libre determinación y a poseer, controlar y manejar nuestras tierras y territorios tradicionales, aguas y otros recursos. Nuestras tierras y territorios son la parte medular de nuestra existencia -somos la Tierra y la Tierra es nosotros-; tenemos una relación espiritual y material con nuestras tierras y territorios y están intrínsecamente ligados a nuestra supervivencia y a la preservación y desarrollo de nuestros sistemas de conocimientos y culturas, la conservación y uso sostenible de la biodiversidad y el manejo de ecosistemas.

Ejerceremos el derecho a determinar y establecer nuestras prioridades y estrategias de autodesarrollo y para el uso de nuestras tierras, territorios y otros recursos. Exigimos que el consentimiento libre, previo e informado sea el principio de aprobación o rechazo de cualquier plan, proyecto o actividad que afecte nuestras tierras, territorios y otros recursos. Sin el derecho al consentimiento libre, previo e informado el modelo colonialista del dominio de la Tierra y sus recursos seguirá con la misma impunidad.

Seguiremos uniéndonos como pueblos indígenas y construyendo una solidaridad y alianza fuertes entre nosotros mismos, comunidades locales y verdaderos promotores no-indígenas de nuestros temas. Esta solidaridad avanzará la campaña mundial para los derechos de los pueblos indígenas a su tierra, vida y recursos y el logro de nuestra libre determinación y liberación.

Seguiremos retando y resistiendo los modelos colonialistas y capitalistas que promueven la dominación de la naturaleza, el crecimiento económico desenfrenado, la extracción de recursos sin límite para ganancias, el consumo y la producción insostenibles y las mercancías no reglamentadas y los mercados financieros. Los seres humanos son una parte integral del mundo natural y todos los derechos humanos, incluyendo los derechos de los pueblos indígenas que deben ser respetados y velados por el desarrollo.

Invitamos a toda la sociedad civil a proteger y promover nuestros derechos y cosmovisiones y respetar la ley de la naturaleza, nuestras espiritualidades y culturas y nuestros valores de reciprocidad, armonía con la naturaleza, la solidaridad y la colectividad. El cuidar y el compartir, entre otros valores, son cruciales para crear un mundo más justo, equitativo y sostenible. En este contexto, hacemos un llamado por la inclusión de la cultura como el cuarto pilar del desarrollo sostenible.

El reconocimiento jurídico y la protección de los derechos de los pueblos indígenas a la tierra, territorios, recursos y los conocimientos tradicionales deberían ser un requisito para el desarrollo y planificación de todos y cada uno de los tipos de adaptación y mitigación del cambio climático, conservación ambiental (incluyendo la creación de “áreas protegidas”), el uso sostenible de la biodiversidad y medidas a combatir desertificación. En todos los casos, tienen que haber consentimiento libre, previo e informado.

Continuamos dando seguimiento a los compromisos asumidos en la Cumbre de la Tierra tal como se refleja en esta declaración política. Hacemos un llamado a la ONU a comenzar su implementación, y asegurar la participación plena, formal y efectiva de los pueblos indígenas en todos los procesos y actividades de la Conferencia de Rio+20 y más allá, de acuerdo con la DNUDPI y el principio del consentimiento libre, previo e informado (CLPI). Seguimos habitando y manteniendo los últimos ecosistemas sostenibles y las más altas concentraciones de biodiversidad en el mundo. Podemos contribuir de una manera significativa al desarrollo sostenible pero creemos que el marco holístico de ecosistemas para el desarrollo se debe promover. Eso incluye la integración del enfoque de derechos humanos, el enfoque de ecosistemas y enfoques culturalmente sensibles y basados en conocimientos.

Caminamos al futuro en las huelles de nuestros antepasados.

Aprobado por aclamación, Aldea de Kari-Oca, en el sagrado Kari-Oca Púku.

Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, 18 de junio de 2012

Rio+20 chega ao fim com resultado tímido e promessas adiadas (BBC)

Atualizado em  22 de junho, 2012 – 16:20 (Brasília) 19:20 GMT

Índio | Foto: Agência BrasilDuas décadas após a Eco-92, Rio+20 não produziu respostas às principais questões modernas.

No último dia da Rio+20, a Conferência das Nações Unidas sobre Desenvolvimento Sustentável, o secretário-geral da ONU, Ban Ki-moon, pediu a todos os governos que eliminem a fome do mundo. Ele disse que, em um mundo populoso, ninguém deveria passar fome.

A fase final da conferência também registrou promessas de diferentes países e empresas em temas como energias limpas.

Mesmo assim, um grupo de políticos veteranos se juntaram a organizações ambientalistas em sua avaliação de que a declaração final do encontro foi o resultado de um “fracasso de liderança”.

Na visão do vice-primeiro-ministro da Grã-Bretanha, Nick Clegg, o resultado das discussões pode ser classificado como “insípido”.

O encontro, que marcou os 20 anos após a emblemática Cúpula da Terra também realizada no Rio de Janeiro, em 1992, e 40 anos depois da primeira reunião mundial sobre o tema, em Estocolmo, tinha como objetivo estimular novas medidas rumo a uma “economia verde”.

Mas a declaração que foi concluída por negociadores de diferentes governos na terça-feira, e que ministros e chefes de Estado e governo não quiseram rediscutir, coloca a economia verde apenas como um de muitos caminhos rumo a um desenvolvimento sustentável.

Mary Robinson, ex-presidente irlandesa que também já ocupou o posto de Alta Comissária da ONU para os Direitos Humanos, disse que os termos do documento não são suficientes.

“Este é um daqueles momentos únicos em uma geração, quando o mundo precisa de visão, compromisso e, acima de tudo, liderança”, disse. “Tristemente, o documento atual é um fracasso de liderança”, afirmou, ecoando as declarações do vice-premiê britânico.

O ex-presidente Fernando Henrique Cardoso disse que a declaração não produz benefícios para a proteção ambiental nem para o desenvolvimento humano.

“Esta divisão antiga entre o meio ambiente e o desenvolvimento não é o caminho para resolver os problemas que estamos criando para nossos netos e bisnetos”, disse. “Temos que aceitar que as soluções para a pobreza e a desigualdade se encontram no desenvolvimento sustentável, e não no crescimento a qualquer custo.”

O secretário-geral da ONU esperava que o encontro adotasse medidas mais firmes para garantir que os mais pobres tivessem acesso a água, energia e alimentos. No entanto, sua emblemática iniciativa Energia Sustentável para Todos foi apenas citada no texto, ao invés de receber apoio enfático dos líderes.

Esperança

Na fase final do encontro, Ban Ki-moon desafiou os governos mundiais a fazerem mais.

“Em um mundo de muitos, ninguém, nem mesmo uma única pessoa, deveria passar fome”, disse. “Convido todos vocês a se juntarem a mim para trabalhar em um futuro sem fome”, acrecentou a uma plateia estimada em 130 chefes de Estado e governo.

“Embora o mundo produza comida suficiente para alimentar todos os habitantes do planeta, há mais pessoas passando fome hoje do que no último encontro organizado no Rio em 1992. “

Barbara Stocking, diretora-executiva da Oxfam Internacional

Atualmente acredita-se que quase 1 bilhão de pessoas – um sétimo da população mundial – vivem em fome crônica, enquanto outro bilhão não recebe nutrição adequada.

As medidas que poderiam ajudar a eliminar essa situação incluem a redução do desperdício de alimentos – quase um terço de todos os alimentos produzidos são jogados no lixo nos países ricos, e uma proporção ainda maior nos países mais pobres, por razões diferentes – além de dobrar a produtividade de pequenas propriedades.

O desafio é parcialmente baseado no programa Fome Zero, criado no Brasil pelo ex-presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

“O anúncio de Ban Ki-moon é um raio de esperança bem-vindo em uma conferência que foi vergonhosamente marcada pela ausência de progresso”, disse Barbara Stockling, chefe da ONG internacional Oxfam.

“Apesar do fato de que o mundo produz alimentos suficientes para todos, há mais pessoas com fome hoje do que em 1992, quando o mundo se reuniu pela última vez no Rio”, acrecentou.

No entanto, até o momento, tudo o que há de concreto é um desafio. Não há dinheiro nem mudanças na maneira como a própria ONU se posiciona sobre o assunto da fome.

Em paralelo às principais negociações no Rio, empresas e governos firmaram mais de 200 compromissos de ações voluntárias em diferentes áreas.

Energia, água e alimentos estão neste pacote, embora a maioria das promessas sejam de inclusão do tema desenvolvimento sustentável em programas educacionais.

Metade dos ativistas ambientais assassinados na última década são brasileiros, diz estudo (BBC)

Júlia Dias Carneiro

Da BBC Brasil no Rio de Janeiro

Atualizado em  20 de junho, 2012 – 19:47 (Brasília) 22:47 GMT
Nísio Gomes (Foto:Survival International)Líder de acampamento indígena Guarani-Kaiowá, Nísio Gomes está desaparecido desde novembro de 2011

Um estudo da ONG Global Witness concluiu que 711 ativistas foram assassinados no mundo todo ao longo da última década por protegerem a terra e a floresta – e mais da metade são brasileiros.

De acordo com a pesquisa, divulgada durante a Rio+20, 365 brasileiros foram mortos entre 2002 e 2011 ao defenderem direitos humanos e o meio ambiente.

Depois do Brasil, os dois países com mais mortes no período também estão na América do Sul: o Peru, com 123 mortos, e a Colômbia, com 70.

Para o pesquisador britânico Billy Kyte, o alto número de mortes no Brasil se deve a uma conjunção de fatores que fazem a concorrência pela terra e pelos recursos naturais se intensificar e geram maior pressão – e tensão – no campo.

Ele enumera a desigualdade na posse de terra no país, com a concentração de propriedades nas mãos de latifundiários; o grande número de comunidades que tira o seu sustento da terra; e a atuação de setores cuja produção consiste também em explorar a terra, como oagropecuário, de mineração e madeireiro.

Mas Kyte acredita também que os números sejam mais altos no caso brasileiro porque o monitoramento é melhor, graças ao relatório anual produzido pela Comissão Pastoral da Terra sobre conflitos de terra no país.

Wutty Chut (Foto: Global Witness)Wutty Chut, diretor de organização de vigilância ambiental do Camboja, foi baleado e morto em abril

Sobretudo em países da África e da Ásia, a ONG teve dificuldades em levantar números de mortos, já que os relatos são esparsos.

“Provavelmente há muitos outros casos que permaneceram ocultos. E o estudo nem leva em consideração as milhares de pessoas sendo intimidadas ou ameaçadas”, diz. “Há uma grave falta de informações sobre essas mortes a um nível global, e ninguém está monitorando.”

Uma morte por semana

Segundo Kyte, a pesquisa busca preencher uma lacuna, oferecendo um panorama internacional dos perigos no campo.

Intitulado “Uma crise oculta? Aumento das mortes decorrentes do acirramento do conflito pelo acesso a terra e as florestas”, o estudo indica que há, em média, mais de um assassinato por semana em contextos relacionados à proteção ambiental.

O número de mortes vêm aumentando, tendo dobrado nos últimos três anos em relação ao restante do período.

De acordo com Kyte, o objetivo é expor na Conferência da ONU para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável que a proteção ao meio ambiente e aos direitos humanos está se tornando um campo de batalhas por recursos, e traz cada vez mais risco para as pessoas.

Túmulo de Frederic Moloma Tuka (Foto: Global Witness)Túmulo de Frederic Moloma Tuka, da República Democrática do Congo, morto em confronto com a polícia

“Pedimos que os governos investiguem esses assassinatos, façam a justiça e tragam compensações às famílias que estão defendendo seus direitos à terra e à floresta”, diz Kyte.

Os casos investigados pelo estudo são de pessoas mortas em ataques ou confrontos decorrentes de protestos, investigações ou denúncias contra atividades de mineração, exploração madeireira, agropecuária, plantações de árvores, barragens hidrelétricas, desenvolvimento urbano e caça ilegal.

Sete desses casos estão sendo apresentados a partir desta quarta-feira na Rio+20, em uma exposição fotográfica com imagens de sete ativistas e sua história de vida e de morte.

O brasileiro Nísio Gomes faz parte da exposição. Líder de um acampamento indígena Guarani-Kaiowá no Mato Grosso do Sul, ele foi levado por 40 homens armados em novembro de 2011 e seu corpo nunca foi encontrado.

A terra estava em vias de ser oficialmente reconhecida como território da comunidade, mas estava sendo usada por agricultores e fazendeiros locais.

The Secret Lives of Dangerous Hackers (N.Y.Times)

‘We Are Anonymous’ by Parmy Olson

By , Published: May 31, 2012

In December 2010 the heat-seeking Internet pranksters known as Anonymous attacked PayPal, the online bill-paying business. PayPal had been a conduit for donations to WikiLeaks, the rogue whistle-blower site, until WikiLeaks released a huge cache of State Department internal messages. PayPal cut off donations to the WikiLeaks Web site. Then PayPal’s own site was shut down, as Anonymous did what it did best: exaggerate the weight of its own influence.

WE ARE ANONYMOUS – Inside the Hacker World of LulzSec, Anonymous, and the Global Cyber Insurgency, By Parmy Olson. 498 pages. Little, Brown & Company. $26.99.

But, according to “We Are Anonymous,” by Parmy Olson, the London bureau chief for Forbes magazine, it had taken a single hacker and his botnet to close PayPal. “He then signed off and went to have his breakfast,” she writes.

(The accuracy of this account is in dispute. PayPal says that its site was never fully down. But as Ms. Olson says, in “a note about lying to the press,” this is how she weighed information as a reporter: “Did supporters of Anonymous lie to me in some interviews?  Yes, though admittedly not always to start with. Over time, if I was not sure about a key point, I would seek to corroborate it with others.  Such is the case with statements presented as fact in this book.  My approach to Anons who were lying to me was simply to go along with their stories, acting as if I were impressed with what they were saying in the hope of teasing out more information that I could later confirm.  I have signposted certain anecdotes with the word “claimed” — e.g., a person “claimed” that story is true.  Not everyone in Anonymous and LulzSec lied all the time, however, and there were certain key sources who were most trustworthy than others and whose testimony I tended to more closely, chief among them being Jake Davis.”  Mr. Davis, known as Topiary, appears to be a principal source in describing how the PayPal attack unfolded.)

Valgas Moore. Parmy Olson

Even so, Anonymous made it seem like the work of its shadowy horde. “We lied a bit to the press to give it that sense of abundance,” says the figure named Topiary, one of the best sources in “We Are Anonymous,” a lively, startling book by Ms. Olson that reads as “The Social Network” for group hackers.

As in that Facebook film the technological innovations created by a few people snowball wildly beyond expectation, until they have mass effect. But the human element — the mix of glee, malevolence, randomness, megalomania and just plain mischief that helped spawn these changes — is what Ms. Olson explores best.

“Here was a network of people borne out of a culture of messing with others,” she writes, “a paranoid world whose inhabitants never asked each other personal questions and habitually lied about their real lives to protect themselves.”

The story of Anonymous and its offshoots is worth telling because of the fast and unpredictable ways they have grown. Anonymous began attracting attention after it attacked the Church of Scientology in 2008; subsequent targets have included Sony’s PlayStation network, Fox television and ultimately the C.I.A.  The Homeland Security Department expressed its own worries last year.

Ms. Olson provides a clear timeline through Anonymous’s complicated, winding history. She concentrates particularly on how it spun off the smaller, jokier group LulzSec. “If Anonymous had been the 6 o’clock news, LulzSec was ‘The Daily Show,’ ” she writes.

The breeding ground for much of this was 4chan, the “Deep Web” destination “still mostly unknown to the mainstream but beloved by millions of regular users.” The realm of 4chan called /b/ is where some of this book’s most destructive characters spent their early Internet years, soaking up so much pornography, violence and in-joke humor that they became bored enough to move on. Ms. Olson, whose evenhanded appraisals steer far clear of sensationalism, describes 4chan as “a teeming pit of depraved images and nasty jokes, yet at the same time a source of extraordinary, unhindered creativity.” It thrived on sex and gore. But it popularized the idea of matching funny captions with cute cat photos too.

“We Are Anonymous” also captures the broad spectrum of reasons that Anonymous and LulzSec attracted followers. Some, like Topiary — who turned out to be Jake Davis, an outwardly polite 19-year-old from a sheep-farming community on the remote Shetland Island called Yell, who was arrested in 2011 — were in it for random pranks and taunting laughs. This book does not shy away from the raw language its principals used, as when Topiary told one victim: “Die in a fire. You’re done.” Other participants had political motivations. The New Yorker calling himself Sabu began as a self-styled revolutionary and was instrumental in getting Anonymous to invade the Web sites of top government officials in Tunisia.

A pivotal part of this book concerns the arrest of Sabu, the unveiling of his real identity as Hector Monsegur, and the F.B.I.’s subsequent use of him as an informant. Sabu’s dealings with Julian Assange of WikiLeaks are also described. Ms. Olson notes how Sabu “suddenly seemed very keen to talk to the WikiLeaks founder once his F.B.I. handlers were watching.”

Ms. Olson regards it as inevitable that neither Anonymous nor LulzSec could reconcile the divergent goals of its participants. Bullying jokesters and politically oriented hacktivists may share sophisticated knowledge of how to manipulate the Web and social media, but each faction became an embarrassment to the other. Topiary told Ms. Olson about his own long-distance contact with Mr. Assange, whom he describes as both intrigued by the saboteurs’ potential and critical of their silly side. (After sifting through 75,000 e-mails from a digital security firm, Topiary bashfully admits, one of the things that most interested him was an e-mail from the chief executive’s wife saying, “I love when you wear your fuzzy socks with your jammies.” )

The most startling conversation in “We Are Anonymous” was arranged by the author: an in-the-flesh meeting between Topiary and a person she calls William, since he remains unidentified.

William personifies the dehumanizing effects of cybercrime, and he knows it. One of his specialties is extorting pornographic pictures and then putting them to damaging use. “We split up several boyfriends and girlfriends and appalled many people’s mothers,” he recalls, about the Facebook tricks the book describes in detail. “I’d be lying if I said there was any great reason,” he adds. “I don’t feel guilty, it makes me laugh, and it wastes a night.”

Together they confirm the worst suspicions about the power of sophisticated but untethered Internet manipulation. “You could inspire some 15-year-old, or someone with a 15-year-old’s mind-set, to hate whoever you want them to hate,” William says.

Postscript: May 31, 2012

After this article was published, PayPal contacted The Times to take issue with the statements in the book that say the hackers shut down its Web site. Jennifer Hakes, a senior manager in corporate communications, said that as a result of the attacks in December 2010, “PayPal was never down.”