Arquivo mensal: novembro 2014

Crash and burn: debating accelerationism (3:AM Magazine)

Alexander Galloway in conversation with Benjamin Noys.

Cover image of Malign Velocities, courtesy of Dean Kenning

Accelerationism emerged as the latest theoretical trend with the publication of Nick Srnicek and Alex Williams’ #Accelerate Manifesto for an Accelerationist Politics in 2013. The book was quickly translated into at least seventeen languages, including German, French, Portuguese, Russian, Turkish and Korean. In 2014 came the publication of #Accelerate: The Accelerationist Reader, edited by Robin Mackay and Arman Avanessian, and during this period a series of public events, seminars and discussions on accelerationism took place, including in Paris, New York, Berlin and London. This appropriately accelerated discussion has often taken place in relation to the art world, including a special issue of the journal e-flux, and has been characterized by heated polemic.

This interview brings together one of the leading critics of accelerationism, Benjamin Noys, who coined the concept as an object of criticism and has just published his critique Malign Velocities (Zero, 2014), with Alexander R. Galloway, an author and programmer working on media theory and contemporary French philosophy. In the discussion they explore the battles over the definition of accelerationism, the role of the negative, questions of abstraction, and the appeal and perils of fantasies of acceleration. The interview was conducted by email and in person between 23 October 2014 and 3 November 2014.

AG: You have a new book titled Malign Velocities: Accelerationism & Capitalism. This is an occasion to celebrate, in any event. And I wonder, even in the spirit of recapitulation, if you might simply define “accelerationism” for us and explain why you decided to return to this concept from your previous book, only now as an “enemy”?

BN: One of the difficult issues in discussing “accelerationism” is that so much of the debate has turned on what exactly that term means. I would say in light of the most recent articulations a simple one-line definition might be: “Accelerationism is the engagement and reworking of forces of abstraction and reason to punch through the limits of an inertial and stagnant capitalism.” Whereas previously much of what I called “accelerationism”, especially in the early 1970s work of Gilles Deleuze and Félix Guattari, Jean-François Lyotard, and Jean Baudrillard, involved a qualified playing with the “accelerated” forces of capitalist production, the current forms stress the need to find new forces that can act against a capitalism that no longer seems to deliver on the “promise” of acceleration. The key figure here is Nick Land, once an academic at the University of Warwick and now a journalist in China. Land’s work in the 1990s provided the most extreme statement of an endorsement of capitalism, or tendencies in capitalism, as mechanisms of acceleration and disintegration. In many ways contemporary accelerationism defines itself against Land, although he still exerts a certain fascination. His recent interest in neo-reactionary thoughtmakes this fascination problematic, to put it mildly.

In terms of my new book I should say I have always been highly skeptical about “accelerationist” strategies, of whatever variety. It was the fact that what I had coined as a term of criticism – although I later found the word occurs in Roger Zelazny’s 1967 novelLord of Light, which I had read – was now being celebrated that was one of the drivers for the new book. The return of interest in strategies of acceleration at a time of capitalist crisis is not surprising, especially when that crisis is taking a long-drawn out and often highly uneven form. In the face of calls for austerity, which almost always fall on the victims of the crisis, signaled in the popularity of the “Keep Calm and Carry On” meme in the UK, a counter-reaction is obvious. While I share the hostility to demands for sacrifice and austerity I think that accelerationist strategies too often feedback into a desire for a return to a, supposedly, productive capitalism. This is what I have called “capitalist Ostalgie.” If “Ostalgie” was nostalgia for the lived experience of “actually-existing socialism”, capitalist Ostalgie is a nostalgia for the images of capitalist dynamism, especially that of the new technologies during the 1990s.

AG: Today’s intellectual current seems to be forking in two distinct directions. The dominant fork is, as you suggest, a kind of technophilic, network affirmationism. But there is an alternative path evident in some of your writings, a path that leads through the negative. Curiously, that erstwhile paragon of progressive theory, Gilles Deleuze, appears now as something of a villain. I recall you use the term “Deleuzian Thatcherism” at a certain point. Can you describe your interest in the negative? Why are you calling for a return to the negative? And what might it offer for the future?

BN: I used “Deleuzian Thatcherism” in the ’90s to describe Nick Land’s work and what I saw as the convergence between his work and certain hyper-Thatcherite currents, which someone referred to at the time as “Thatcherism in its Maoist Phase”. I think, now, a more accurate but inelegant characterization would have been “Lyotardian Thatcherism”, as Land seems to take a lot more from Lyotard’s 1974 book Libidinal Economy, with its argument that there is only one libidinal economy and that this is capitalist. While it’s true that the work of Deleuze, and especially that of Deleuze and Guattari, has never been to my taste, when I wrote on him for my book The Persistence of the Negative I found more appreciation for his work. There is, if we like, a “negative Deleuze”. Also, I think the debate about accelerationism has sharpened positions and I’ve had interesting and supportive responses to my critique from those who are sympathetic both to Deleuze and to Guattari.

In terms of the negative my interest really emerged out of noticing how easily it was being dismissed and how much of contemporary thought defined itself as affirmative or positive, which is what I called, borrowing from Badiou, “Affirmationism”. Obviously we could include accelerationism, with its positive attitude to technology, reason and abstraction, within this broad category. At the same time, despite misunderstandings, this turn to the negative was not simply a matter of miserabilism or “negativity”, in the common use of the word, on my part. I’m not sure whether I qualify as a “happy person”, but my aim wasn’t to celebrate the virtues of depression. Instead, negativity interests me as a way to define a practice of contestation and rupture, and not least to disrupt all the calls to embrace the positive, to embrace “things as they are”, as William Godwin put it. So, a return to the negative is a return to rethinking the negative, not as a “pure” state, but as intertwined with affirmative moments and as a means of thinking change. It is actually the case that “affirmative” thinking is often accompanied by a celebration of hyperbolic and extreme negativity, by a stress on suffering and misery, but only as moment subordinate to a sudden transformation.

Accelerationism stakes a lot on its ability to imagine the future, especially with the acid test of accepting the future need for space travel (with moon gulags, in the joke, for dissidents). Within the provocation and technological utopianism I think there is something to the accelerationists’ stress on not imagining a future communist society as merely ameliorating capitalist barbarism with what Marx called a “barracks communism”. What concerns me, which is another reason I turn to negativity, is not the difficulty in imagining the future, but the difficulty imagining how we might get there. For this reason I have stressed negativity as a form of struggle that operates within a horizon of past struggles, which must be affirmed, in the attempt to decommodify the world, as well as to break with other forms of state power and other forms of oppression and violence.

AG: Along those lines, what is the connection, if any, between negation and nihilism, a philosophical tendency that has rebounded in recent years? I’m thinking of the “wider field” of speculative realism stretching from Ray Brassier to Eugene Thacker. We seem to be in the middle of a kind of Existentialist Revival.

BN: What’s interesting in the recent articulations of nihilism is that they tend to evacuate or even annihilate the subject, unlike classical existentialism. While I have some interest in nihilist thinking, dating back to readings of Re/Search as a teenager and then through my work on Bataille, I think this hyperbolic nihilism often ends up circling back to affirmation – in this case the affirmation of a universe which has no need of subjects. In my terms, thinking of negation, I would like to distinguish negativity from any hyperbolic negativity or nihilism, by stressing that negativity is a practice that engages with points of contradiction and violence. My view of negation is a deflationary one, trying to shift out of the desire to contemplate or even wallow in some collapse of all values, to consider the tensions of negation.

In terms of accelerationism nihilism carries different values. It was obviously crucial to Nick Land, who deployed a nihilism developed from Bataille and Schopenhauer to annihilate the ego. In this vision, we embrace what Nietzsche called “European nihilism”, embodied in the nihilist drive of capital to reduce everything to value, as the means to overcome humanism and to become fully disenchanted. Contemporary accelerationism sometimes tries to weaponize nihilism as almost a therapeutic device, while other currents stress the need to reinvent norms out of an “inhumanism” that can recreate and take the human beyond itself. I’m skeptical of the invocation of a “hard-edged” nihilism, which seems to me to abandon a lot of crucial questions by invoking a “levelling” of values that is, at best, highly uneven. It may even be, ironically, that a radical nihilism is consolatory – giving us a weird sense of security by reaffirming our pointlessness. In this there is a risk of the return of the subject as the one who is able to proclaim the nihilist “bad news” and so remain somehow superior or immune – a kind of cult of non-personality.

AG: One of the classic debates in leftist theory is that of orthodoxy. Lukács famously asked: What is orthodox Marxism? And his unorthodox answer ironically helped solidify a new kind of cultural Marxist orthodoxy in the decades since. Reza Negarestani has labeled this a form of “kitsch” Marxism, suggesting the need for a renewed critique of orthodoxy. How best can we square the necessarily dialectical movement of history with certain foundational categories like justice, democracy, or the people?

BN: I would almost certainly fail any test of Marxist orthodoxy, or even unorthodoxy. This is not because I regard myself as original or dissident, but due to my lack of thorough knowledge of Marx and Marxism and my own formation, which owes something to anarchism, a lot to the Situationists, and more than a little to my maternal grandfather’s straightforward socialism and his stories of his life as a union representative while working on the railways in London (I perhaps also owe something to my paternal grandfather’s ad hoc practice of the “refusal of work”). The result is that my “Marxism” is probably more suspicious of a belief in the productive forces than some of the classical forms and more geared to a suspicion of the category of labor.

In terms of Reza’s characterization there is a truth to the claim that certain forms of postwar Marxism tended to an extreme pessimism, as every undergraduate who does cultural studies usually learns. I have more sympathy for this trend – I think Adorno’s Minima Moralia is a brilliant book. But, of course, a characterization of capitalism as completely dominant, a characterization of all life and culture as completely determined by capital, leaves little to do (and I think very few actually said this). On the other hand, the accelerationists’ critique seems to me to bend the stick too far in the other direction, implying too much acceptance of contemporary technological and cultural forms that does not really consider how they are shaped by capitalism. Presenting capitalism as a parasite (I always think of Futurama’s brain slugs) implies that we simply shrug off the parasite to get back to a neutral technological or cultural possibility. I think capitalism shapes our context and existence in subtler ways than that, although it is always a contradictory social formation. While I would say there is no simple “outside” to capitalism, I don’t think this is a counsel of despair because I’d attend to the contradictions and struggle that always and everywhere exist within this social relation.

AG: Let’s talk in particular about abstraction. Abstraction has always presented something of a problem within critical theory. Yet today many on the left are taking up the question of abstraction again with renewed energy. How do you understand the role of abstraction today? Do you think of abstraction in philosophical terms or in, shall we say, strictly material terms?

BN: I think the crucial category here is Marx’s “real abstraction”, or more precisely Alfred Sohn-Rethel’s formalization of Marx’s comments to define this concept. The paradox of “Real Abstraction” is crucial, in that abstractions, notably “abstract labor”, are very real and very abstract at the same time. In this way abstraction is brutally material in the way, for example, it violently homogenizes all forms of labor into the category of abstract labor, which is geared to value production. Keston Sutherland (pdf here) has written very nicely on how Marx’s German word “Gallerte”, usually translated as “congealed”, refers to boiled down animal products (blood, bone, connective tissue, etc.). When our labor is congealed into abstract labor we become mere “ingredients” and, as Sutherland says, we are processed into abstract “stuff”. I think this usefully expresses how the usual oppositions of abstract and concrete or abstract and material don’t quite capture this process. The abstract is concrete or pseudo-concrete.

This is why, in what’s becoming a theme of this conversation, I think accelerationists are right, but for the wrong reasons. They are right to draw attention to abstraction as a crucial process, but they disengage it too rapidly from this horizon. This is why I think there is a tendency in their work to fetishize abstraction by choosing its most extreme forms to focus on, such as High-Frequency Trading. While this form of algorithmic trading expresses, almost too perfectly, a kind of terminal point of commodity fetishism, in which all we have are ghostly circulations of value, it too requires a brutal series of interventions into “material” forms (as Alberto Toscano has explained). I’d add that this attention to the extreme forms of abstraction also risks missing the more prevalent global forms of real abstraction that, as with abstract labor, dominate and pervade our experience.

It’s for this reason that I also suggest we need to traverse abstraction and can’t simply leap out of abstraction into some “good” alternative. The very search for such alternatives, such as the valorization of the concept of “life” as an excessive force, seems to me to create another abstraction. My problem with accelerationism is that it embraces and then abandons this ground of abstraction. Certainly it does not seek an outside point, a cozy “warm abstraction”, but in its embrace of “cold abstraction” as a global force it neglects these effects of “processing” and the material becomes disembodied in the fantasy of full integration with the abstract.

AG: From abstraction to culture: you also have a keen interest in art and culture. But culture is so unfashionable today! The Linguistic Turn, with its focus on culture and ideology, has been targeted by a number of new schools of thought, including speculative realism and new materialism. Hermeneutics and other interpretive methods, once so dominant, are suffering in the academy at the hands of “distant reading” and other positivistic approaches. What is your relationship to those once stalwart critical methods? I’m thinking of allegory in particular, which you also deploy.

BN: I think this is also a question about the abstract and the material. It seems to me that the general “turn” in the humanities to the material – and my day job is teaching literature – is part of a longer historicist turn that goes back to the 1980s. While everyone tends to think of the humanities as dominated by a “linguistic” post-structuralism (a false image, in fact), the reality I find is a common historicism that constantly invokes the density of “materiality”. This I call a “pop Burkeanism”, as it repeats Edmund Burke’s counter-revolutionary stress on the social as a “dense medium”, but now translated into the form of material artefacts – everything from book covers to letters, from publisher’s offices to architecture, to “material culture”.

This drift is not only politically problematic, but also the general invocation of the “material” often seems fatally abstract. It seems to me that the new materialisms and the various forms of “distant reading” share a paradoxical structure in which the attention to material specificity is coupled with the capacity to skim over or pick and choose between “objects” treated as equal. In what is perhaps a crass allegory I see this as symptomatic of the omission of the commodity-form, which is a form that at once equalizes all commodities as measurable by value and insists on their specific value within this frame. That’s why I have generally tried to explore the continuing possibilities of critique and question this turn to a “post-critical” way of thinking. Critique, I hope, can attend better to the constant processes of transformation of the material to the abstract and vice versa.

In terms of accelerationism I think culture is a central element, which can’t simply be wished away. I often say I think we should have all debates about accelerationism in terms of dance music, and this isn’t a (probably bad) joke. The role of dance music and electronic music in shaping accelerationism goes back to the work of Nick Land and the Cybernetic Culture Research Unit (CCRU) at Warwick, which drew heavily on jungle and drum and bass. These forms of post-rave dance music, which deployed sped-up breakbeats, were taken as aesthetic examples of the power of accelerationism. I was also an avid follower of this music, combined with my ongoing interest in Techno. I belong to the same generation as many of the original accelerationists and so we share, to some degree, a common cultural formation. The crucial role of music in the formation of accelerationism, along with a related visual culture, means that the “aesthetic” reception of accelerationism isn’t simply a category error. In my work, while I don’t deny the energy and acceleration of these forms I’m also interested in how they reflect on elements of friction, both to generate this sense of acceleration and in the way this friction incarnates attempts to transcend or leave behind the body and its labors. The body on the dance floor is both detached from labor, but also experiences a new form of labor, or the repetitions that at once mimic and take to an extreme the repetitions of work.

The logo of the “Metalheads” music label

To treat accelerationism aesthetically is often seen as dismissive, but I think it has to be placed in the context of various avant-garde attempts to instantiate what Badiou calls “the passion for the real”: this is the attempt to not only represent social forms, but to intervene or create something by cutting into those forms. The modernist impulses of accelerationism make it heir to this task. The problem I find, again!, is this misplacing of this problem and a collapsing of the difficulty of representation. This is why I also think the psychoanalytic category of fantasy is crucial, as a social or ideological fantasy, to grasping the accelerationist desire. In terms of accelerationism this is a fantasy we could have done with fantasy, which I think is the final fantasy.

Accelerationism turns on fantasies of integration and immersion, with capitalism, with the machinic, and with the abstract. While these fantasies register our experience of the pains of labor and the threats of unemployment, they also transform them into the dream of ecstatic enjoyment – jouissance. I think the task today is to resist this sort of pleasure, which also involves pain, in a kind of masochism, but not through the dismissal of enjoyment. Instead of a new asceticism I think the task is to articulate and politicize pleasures that resist and interrupt our immersion in contemporary capitalism. This requires neither the appeal to a “pure” outside nor the demand for complete immersion, but a practice that engages with the contradictions and violence we confront.

ABOUT THE INTERVIEWEE
Benjamin Noys teaches at the University of Chichester and his recent publications includeThe Persistence of the Negative: A Critique of Contemporary Theory (Edinburgh, 2010) and Malign Velocities: Accelerationism & Capitalism (Zero Books, 2014). He is currently writing a critique of vitalism in contemporary theory.

ABOUT THE INTERVIEWER
Alexander R. Galloway teaches at New York University. His latest book is Laruelle: Against the Digital (Minnesota, 2014).

First published in 3:AM Magazine: Tuesday, November 4th, 2014.

*   *   *

JC 5060, 6 de novembro de 2014

Acelerar inovação é urgente, afirma CNI (Valor Econômico)

Fórum sobre o tema reuniu 250 empresários, representantes do setor público e pesquisadores ontem em Porto Alegre

Acelerar o passo da inovação é uma necessidade urgente, caso contrário o Brasil ficará para trás no contexto internacional. O alerta é da diretora de Inovação da Confederação Nacional da Indústria (CNI), Gianna Sagazio, uma das palestrantes do Fórum Inovação Social, Eficiência e Produtividade Empresarial, realizado ontem pelo Valor na capital gaúcha.

Leia a matéria na íntegra em: http://www.valor.com.br/empresas/3768914/acelerar-inovacao-e-urgente-afirma-cni

(Dauro Veras / Valor Econômico)

Here comes the story of the Dylan fans (ki.se)

Updated on 2014-09-25. Published on 2014-09-25

Dylan fans: Jonas Frisén, Konstantinos Meletis, Jon Lundberg, Kenneth Chien and Eddie Weitzberg. Photo: Gustav Mårtensson

An internal contest has been ongoing between a little band of researchers at Karolinska Institutet. And the one who succeeds in quoting Bob Dylan in most scientific articles before going into retirement is the winner.

The story begins 17 years ago. Jon Lundberg and Eddie Weitzberg, today both professors at the Department of Physiology and Pharmacology at KI, had an article published in Nature Medicine with the title: ‘Nitric Oxide and Inflammation: The answer is blowing in the wind’.

“We both really like Bob Dylan so when we set about writing an article concerning the measurement of nitric oxide gas in both the respiratory tracts and the intestine, with the purpose of detecting inflammation, the title came up and it fitted there perfectly,” says Eddie Weitzberg.

Some years later they saw an article written by Jonas Frisén, Professor at the Department of Cell and Molecular Biology, together with Konstantinos Meletis, Research Assistant at the Department of Neuroscience. The subject of the article was whether blood cells can change and become nerve cells.

“The title was ‘Blood on the tracks: a simple twist of fate’; this is the name of the album on the one hand, and a song of Bob Dylan on the other, and the article contained additional Dylan references,” points out Eddie Weitzberg.

Jon Lundberg and Eddie Weitzberg then succeeded in introducing ‘The times they are a-changin’ into the title in a separate article and, at the same time, sent an email to Jonas Frisén and announced the launch of an internal competition.

“The one who has written most articles with Dylan quotes, before going into retirement, wins a lunch at the Solna restaurant Jöns Jacob,” explains Jon Lundberg.

Jonas Frisén and a colleague responded with the article ‘Eph receptors tangled up in two’ in Cell Cycle the same year, 2010, the title of which is inspired by Bob Dylan’s song ‘Tangled up in blue’. The following year, Jon Lundberg and Eddie Weitzberg countered with ‘Dietary nitrate – a slow train coming’ in The Journal of Physiology.

“This article also concluded with a paraphrase of Dylan: ‘We know something is happening, but we don’t know what it is – Do we, Dr Jones?’ where we jokingly addressed a British colleague with the same surname,” says Jon Lundberg.

Moreover, Kenneth Chien, Professor of Cardiovascular Research at the Department of Cell and Molecular Biology and the Department of Medicine, Huddinge, has also been quoting Bob Dylan but – until very recently – was completely unaware of the articles of the others. ‘Tangled up in blue: Molecular cardiology in the postmolecular era’was published in Circulation 1997; the same year that Lundberg’s and Eddie Weitzberg’s first article with a  Dylan quote was published.

When the five researchers met up in August to have their photo taken for this article, Bob Dylan is the obvious subject of conversation. They discuss eagerly who has read the Bob Dylan autobiography entitled Chronicles and enquire about the internal competition.

“The contest is open for everyone,” says Jon Lundberg. He goes on to explain that they usually draw attention to one another’s new articles via email.

The researchers also point out that it is primarily in review articles and commentaries that it is possible to use quotes since these articles are often slightly lighter in tone (less heavyweight) than others.

“But it’s important that the quote is linked to the scientific content, that it reinforces the message and raises the quality of the article as such, not the reverse,” says Jonas Frisén.

What then is so special about Bob Dylan? Eddie Weitzberg thinks he merits a Nobel prize for Literature while Kenneth Chien compares him to a modern Shakespeare, though in music. But the researchers also draw parallels between Bob Dylan’s music and the world of research.

“A musician who merely continues down the same highway for 30 years is not one who many want to listen to. Good music is innovative, like Bob Dylan’s. And the same thing applies to good research. A researcher must also try to find new and different paths,” says Konstantinos Meletis.

Text: Lisa Reimegård

In the photo:

Jonas Frisén, Professor of stem cell research at the Department of Cell and Molecular Biology. Member of The Nobel Assembly at Karolinska Institutet.

Konstantinos Meletis, Research Associate at the Department of Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet.

Jon Lundberg, Professor of Nitric Oxide Pharmacologics at the Department of Physiology and Pharmacology, Karolinska Institutet.

Kenneth Chien, Professor at the Department of Cell and Molecular Biology, and the Department of Medicine.Karolinska Institutet. Before Dr. Kenneth Chien  was recruited to Karolinska Institutet he was a Professor in the Department of Stem Cell and Regenerative Biology at Harvard University in Cambridge.

Eddie Weitzberg, Professor of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine at the Department of Physiology and Pharmacology, Karolinska Institutet.

Última chance (Página 22)

04/11/2014 – 10h19

por Diego Viana, da Página 22

mundo Última chance
Foto: http://ambientalsustentavel.org/A humanidade dispõe de dinheiro, tecnologia e conhecimento para mudar a rota que conduz a uma alta catastrófica da temperatura no planeta. A bola está com atores políticos e econômicos, que têm pouco mais de um ano para fechar um acordo global decisivo.

As notícias não foram boas nos últimos meses. Apesar de estagnada desde 2008, a economia mundial não consegue reduzir as emissões de carbono no ritmo necessário. Para manter o aquecimento global em 2 graus [1] até 2100, teríamos de emitir 6,2% a menos ano após ano. Em 2013, a redução foi de só 1,2%, de acordo com relatório da consultoria PwC. No ritmo anual, caminhamos facilmente para um aquecimento de 4 graus. Entre os dois cenários – de 2 e de 4 graus –, a diferença é um abismo: ou um planeta mais difícil de viver, com desastres frequentes, falta de comida e de água, populações deslocadas, ou uma mudança climática descontrolada e completamente inóspita para a civilização (ver gráfico 1).

Já os oceanos, responsáveis por segurar boa parte do aquecimento global, estão esquentando a uma velocidade superior à prevista, segundo o Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudança Climática (IPCC, na sigla em inglês). Assim, fica ainda mais estreito o ultimato para encontrar soluções climáticas. Em setembro, a ONG WWF anunciou que, nos últimos 40 anos, por efeito da ação humana, a população mundial de animais vertebrados caiu à metade, enquanto a distância entre a oferta de recursos naturais do planeta e as demandas do sistema econômico só cresce (ver gráfico 2).

Gráfico 1

grafico1 Última chance

Gráfico 2

grafico2 Última chance

A sucessão de dados negativos acrescenta uma dose de urgência ao esforço de controlar o acúmulo de carbono na atmosfera e, assim, reduzir boa parte da nossa pegada ecológica.

Depois de anos em que negociações multilaterais esbarraram na incapacidade de encontrar um terreno comum para um acordo entre políticos de diversos países, é cada vez maior a convicção, em sociedades ao redor do mundo, de que não se pode mais postergar uma solução por motivos políticos.

A 21a Conferência da ONU para o clima (COP 21), que ocorrerá em Paris em dezembro de 2015, torna-se tão mais decisiva para o futuro da civilização quanto mais se aproxima a data. Negociadores e ativistas esperam conseguir até lá chegar a um acordo climático eficaz. A COP 20 ocorrerá em dezembro deste ano em Lima (Peru), mas só no ano seguinte os ativistas acreditam que se produzirá algo concreto.

“Se fizermos tudo que pode ser feito, há 75% de chance de conseguirmos manter o aquecimento global dentro dos 2 graus até 2100”, diz o ecologista Tom Athanasiou, diretor- executivo da ONG americana EcoEquity, citando estudos do IPCC.

Athanasiou separa a questão em duas: técnico-científica e político-econômica. “Temos o dinheiro, a tecnologia e a ciência para fazer uma redução emergencial rápida o suficiente para segurar a linha de 2 graus. É um declínio global de emissões muito veloz e que ainda seria muito perigoso, porque envolveria o dobro do aquecimento que tivemos até hoje [de 0,8 grau]”, diz. “Mas com o ‘business and politics as usual’ , duvido que dê para evitar os 3 graus ou até 4 graus.”

Mecanismos de Mercado

Segundo o sociólogo Sérgio Abranches, que edita o site Ecopolítica, o fato de os modelos climáticos terem margens de erro elevadas resulta em discordância entre cientistas sobre a possibilidade de a temperatura ficar abaixo dos 2 graus de aquecimento. O resultado se reflete sobre a política, porque “a política trabalha com certezas. Se alguém manifesta qualquer dúvida sobre um ponto, os políticos adiam a decisão, e é isso que tem acontecido”.

Muitas das propostas para reduzir as emissões ao redor do mundo envolvem mecanismos de mercado, propiciados pelo Protocolo de Kyoto, baseados no cap-and-trade, que impõe um limite de emissões e cria créditos que podem ser negociados. Mas, sem poder de sanção e sem o apoio de países importantes como EUA e China, o protocolo é considerado um fracasso.

“Os mecanismos de mercado já mostraram que (sozinhos) não são suficientes”, diz Abranches, citando o exemplo dos créditos de carbono europeus, que não foram capazes de reduzir as emissões no continente. “Não é possível fazer o mercado funcionar só com incentivos. É preciso combiná-los com penalidades que tornem os incentivos mais atraentes para empresas emissoras.”

Para o sociólogo, o único instrumento econômico eficaz é o imposto sobre o carbono, adotado por vários países e recentemente aprovado no Chile, que também contém um sobrepreço aplicado a importações de países que não têm o imposto. A Organização Mundial do Comércio (OMC) publicou no ano passado uma portaria em que aprova o imposto de carbono e não o considera como prática desleal de concorrência. “O imposto precifica de forma penalizadora as emissões, e as empresas buscam formas de se adequar. Esse é o único jeito de fazer com que o mercado tome iniciativas para reduzir suas emissões”, argumenta (mais sobre a eficácia dos mecanismos de precifição do carbono emreportagem).

Athanasiou lembra que as catástrofes climáticas dos últimos anos ocorreram no contexto de um aquecimento ainda na casa dos 0,8 grau. Uma lista exaustiva pode ser encontrada no website do Centro de Pesquisa em Epidemiologia de Desastres (Cred), da Universidade Católica de Louvain, na Bélgica . “Um aquecimento de 2 graus causará imensa destruição e sofrimento, mas não significa o fim da civilização humana”, diz o ativista, que antevê um cenário de migrações massivas, fome, extinções e guerra constante caso cheguemos a 3 ou 4 graus. Athanasiou falou à PÁGINA22 enquanto se preparava para viajar até Bonn, na Alemanha, onde ocorreu uma conferência preparatória para a COP 20, em Lima.

O Cred informa que na década de 1940 houve 120 desastres hidrometeorológicos (que podem ter tido origem humana) contra 52 geológicos (eventos naturais). De2000 a 2005, foram 233 geológicos contra 2.135 hidrometeorológicos. O resultado sugere que o ser humano é que tem cada vez mais causado desastres ambientais.

Na ONG EcoEquity, que ele mantém com outros especialistas do clima, foi desenvolvido o conceito de Global Development Rights. Trata-se de um cálculo destinado a orientar um futuro sistema de impostos globais, cujo foco está na convicção de que nenhum acordo será obtido sem atacar o problema da desigualdade. Daí a divisão entre a responsabilidade – o quanto um país, empresa ou indivíduo polui – e a capacidade de enfrentar o problema – o quanto é capaz de contribuir para reduzir as emissões.

“A crise do clima é uma crise global dos comuns. Mas a habilidade de pagar pela transição é geográfica e economicamente separada de onde a transição deve acontecer. É preciso mover a finança e a tecnologia através do pla- neta, e muito, para atingir as taxas altíssimas de descarbonização necessárias para estabilizar o sistema climático”, explica.

Marcha do Clima

A maior tentativa de mobilizar as sociedades de todo o mundo para pressionar governantes e negociadores de acordos climáticos ocorreu em 21 de setembro, com a Marcha Popular Global do Clima [2]. Em Nova York, dois dias antes do encontro de líderes mundiais que a cidade sediou, 400 mil pessoas foram às ruas, acompanhadas à distância por manifestações em centenas de cidades ao redor do mundo, incluindo Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo (mais em reportagem).

Os organizadores da marcha foram os membros da ONG 350.org, dedicada a conscientizar a população quanto aos perigos ligados à mudança climática. O número que dá nome à instituição, “350”, corresponde ao limite de concentração, em ppm (partes por milhão), de partículas de gases de efeito estufa, abaixo do qual ainda é possível controlar o aquecimento global. No ano passado, porém, a marca de 400 ppm foi ultrapassada.

Alguns organizadores da marcha esperavam que Nova York recebesse até 1 milhão de manifestantes, a exemplo de protestos semelhantes na década de 1970, contra os armamentos nucleares ou em prol das primeiras leis ambientais. Os 400 mil foram um número expressivo, mas abaixo do desejado. Segundo Sérgio Abranches, o principal motivo é o desencanto das populações com a ação política: as pessoas passaram a considerar que não adianta se mobilizar para pressionar políticos que não reagem às pressões.

Athanasiou considera que o comparecimento foi satisfatório, mas afirma que não é o mais importante. Aos poucos, diz, os grupos de ativistas de todo o mundo estão convergindo para uma agenda comum. “É no ano que vem, em Paris, que vamos precisar juntar 1 milhão de pessoas”, crava. “A Europa tem um monte de verdes! Vamos juntá-los em Paris!”

A 350.org também é promotora da iniciativa “Divesting from Fossil Fuel” (Desinvestir em Combustíveis Fósseis), lançada em 2012 . A estratégia consiste em convencer fundos de investimento, universidades, filantropos e outras entidades a retirar seus investimentos de empresas petrolíferas.

Os membros da ONG consideram que a iniciativa já pode ser considerada como bem-sucedida, porque gerou discussões na mídia e conseguiu adesões de universidades e fundos filantrópicos ao redor do mundo. Uma adesão recente tem sabor particularmente irônico: os descendentes do magnata do petróleo John D. Rockefeller, fundador da Standard Oil, anunciaram que vão retirar gradativamente seus investimentos em empresas petrolíferas (mais em reportagem).

Algo a comemorar

Nem todas as notícias foram ruins este ano. Em grande medida graças à iniciativa alemã de ampliar a participação de usinas eólicas e painéis solares em sua matriz energética, o custo das fontes renováveis de energia está cada vez mais competitivo. Ainda não é certo, porém, que a transição para uma matriz energética mais limpa ocorra na velocidade necessária. “A mudança da matriz energética mundial está impulsionando o desengarrafamento de alguns problemas tecnológicos urgentes”, diz Abranches. “Um ponto que vai nos levar a um novo patamar em energia eólica é a armazenagem, que ainda não está resolvida.”

O cientista político cita também o desenvolvimento de biocombustíveis de segunda geração, cuja produção não compete com produtos de alimentação. “Claramente,esta é uma transição longa e gradual. Não temos ainda uma fonte que possa substituir o petróleo nas mesmas condições de eficiência energética e variedade de uso em curto prazo”, afirma o cientista político (leia reportagem sobre o pré-sal brasileiro).

[1] Dois graus é o aumento mínimo que o planeta sofrerá, no cenário mais otimista desenhado pela comunidade científica. Mesmo assim, imporá uma forte mudança nas formas de vida na Terra.

[2] Mais sobre as marchas ao redor do mundo aqui.
* Publicado originalmente no site Página 22.

(Página 22)

New CSIRO head wants to make water divining easier for farmers (Melbourne Skeptics)

By Ben Finney |

The incoming leader of our top scientific research organisation is promoting water-dowsing to Australian farmers.

The CSIRO has a new leader, Dr. Larry Marshall, who will take the reins in 2014-12.

Currently the managing director of the California-based Southern Cross Venture Partners, an outfit specialising in creating and growing Australian technology companies, Dr Marshall holds a doctorate in physics from Macquarie University. He has 20 patents to his name and has co-founded six companies.

The 52-year-old, who admits he hasn’t applied for a job in 25 years, suspects it was this combination of science and business that got him the CSIRO’s top job following a competitive global search.

“I started as a scientist, became an entrepreneur and learnt a lot about business the hard way,” he said.

[…]
Innovation Minister Ian Macfarlane, whose portfolio takes in science, welcomed Dr Marshall’s appointment.

Highlighting his commercial background, Mr Macfarlane said Dr Marshall’s arrival came at a time when the agency was embarking on a “significant new phase” in which the CSIRO would play an increasingly important role in the economy. This included strengthening links between business and science, he said.

The leader of CSIRO is chiefly welcomed by Australia’s Innovation Minister? What about our Science Minister? Oh that’s right, Australia’s current government has scrapped the ministry for science. Instead, our Prime Minister has appointed himself the head of a Science Council, with no minister responsible for science — and CSIRO left to the mercies of the “industry” portfolio.

So our federal government’s appointed head of CSIRO, Larry Marshall, himself seems to place much more emphasis on what is financially profitable than what is scientifically sound. He’s not been working as a scientist for a very long time; the past 25 years was spent as a venture capitalist.

And now, on the basis that charlatans can fool him, he wants to use his new position as head of CSIRO to fund research for water dowsing.

He’d like to see the development of technology that would make it easier for farmers to dowse or divine for water on their properties.

“I’ve seen people do this with close to 80 per cent accuracy and I’ve no idea how they do it,” he said.

“When I see that as a scientist, it makes me question, ‘is there instrumentality that we could create that would enable a machine to find that water?’

“I’ve always wondered whether there’s something in the electromagentic field, or gravitation anomaly.”

Dr Marshall believes the CSIRO can ‘push the envelope’ with such projects and contribute to improving agricultural productivity.

Really? Shouldn’t we reserve funding for technologies whose claimed phenomenon can pass a simple blinded controlled objective study, rather than assuming Larry Marshall has seen it and he can’t be fooled? (The Victorian Skeptics has a guide to dowsing among other educational materials.)

In an age when all of climate science shows that we are in for, among other catastrophic results, devastating drought unless we act now to reverse our damaging activities, Australia’s leading government science body will spend its precious attention on pseudoscience and fakery.

We are under the rule of one of the worst governments in Australian history, in terms of the scientific soundness of policy.

Midterm Elections, the Senate, and Republican Science Denial (Slate)

By Phil Plait

NOV. 4 2014 7:00 AM

James InhofeIf Republicans win the Senate, James Inhofe, R-Oklahoma, could be in charge of the committee that controls the EPA. Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images

Today is the midterm election for the United States, where many seats in the House and Senate will be determined. It seems pretty obvious that the House will remain in control of the Republicans. It seems likely the GOP will get a slight majority in the Senate today as well.

What does this mean? Well, in the short term and for many issues, not a lot. This previous Congress will go down in history as the least effective ever, since all it really did is block White House initiatives. They couldn’t even approve a surgeon general nomination! A GOP majority in the Senate will probably mean more of the same, since they’ll lack the supermajority needed to prevent Democratic filibustering of big items.

But this vast, gaping polarization of American politics is toxic, especially where it comes to the crucial issue of global warming. Here, a Senate GOP majority can have an extremely destructive effect. It will put a cohort of science-deniers into positions of authority over the very science they want to trample. This is extremely worrisome to me, and it should be to you as well.

Nowhere is this more important thanthe Environment and Public Works Committee. A Republican win will almost certainly make James Inhofe, R-Oklahoma, chairman. This committee controls the Environmental Protection Agency, which is charged with addressing climate change and what to do about it. Inhofe is probably the most ludicrously adamant global warming denier in the Senate; he has called it a hoax and denies it to levels that would make the frothiest conspiracy theorists shake their heads in wonder.

Inhofe has indicated he will attack greenhouse gas regulators, so giving him control of this committee puts the “fox in charge of the henhouse” simile to shame.

Other committees will fare no better; as just one example Ted Cruz, R-Texas, could be chairman of the committee on science and space, and he also denies global warming. The irony is as excruciating as it is familiar.

capitol_smoke

Original photo by krossbow on Flickr, modified by Phil Plait

Of course, the Republican mantra of late is to claim “I’m not a scientist, but …” as if this excuses them when they deny reality. I’ve excoriated this ridiculous notion before; it started in 2012 when Marco Rubio, R-Florida, used it when he said he wasn’t sure how old the Earth is (!), but it is now being wielded like a shield for Republican rejection of global warming. It was baloney then, and it’s still baloney now. Their lack of scientific qualifications hasn’t stopped them from trying to create medical legislation to control women’s bodies, or to try to make laws about agriculture, health care, and so many other science-based topics. It’s clearly a cynical dodge.

And it will cost us. These elections happen mere days after the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued its fifth Synthesis Report, a 40-page opus making it very clear that global warming is real, humans are causing it, and it’s disrupting our planet’s climate.

The summary for policymakers is as succinct as it is brutal in its assessment:

Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems.

[…]

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen.

It then gives evidence and support for these claims, going into terrifying specificity:

Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence), with only about 1% stored in the atmosphere.

So much for “the pause”.

Since the beginning of the industrial era, oceanic uptake of CO2 has resulted in acidification of the ocean … corresponding to a 26% increase in acidity.

Ocean acidification is killing off entire species, upsetting the ecological balance of the oceans. This is on top of sea level rise, the disruption of the heat transport balance of the planet, and the amplification of extreme weather we’re seeing all over the Earth.

Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.

Ask Californians suffering from one of the worst droughts in history how they feel about “long-lasting changes in the climate,” for example, or how much you enjoyexcursions in the polar vortex bringing frigid cold into the U.S. eastern states in the winter.

Global warming is real. It’s causing climate change on a planetary scale, and this isextremely dangerous for humanity.

Yet Republican politicians deny it as if their careers and funding depend on them doing so.

This is what these elections today mean. I am by no means a single-issue voter, unless you count reality as an issue. When you vote today, it quite literally affects the future of humanity.

Do we finally take action about the single greatest threat we as a species face today? Or do we elect officials who would rather take money from the fossil fuel industryand bury their heads firmly in the sand, putting off for at least another two years taking any action, or even recognizing that we need to take action against it?

Remember that today as you go to the polls. Your vote counts. Make it count.

What Happened On Easter Island — A New (Even Scarier) Scenario (NPR)

December 10, 2013 8:41 AM ET

We all know the story, or think we do.

Let me tell it the old way, then the new way. See which worries you most.

Island filled with trees

Robert Krulwich/NPR

First version: Easter Island is a small 63-square-mile patch of land — more than a thousand miles from the next inhabited spot in the Pacific Ocean. In A.D. 1200 (or thereabouts), a small group of Polynesians — it might have been a single family — made their way there, settled in and began to farm. When they arrived, the place was covered with trees — as many as 16 million of them, some towering 100 feet high.

These settlers were farmers, practicing slash-and-burn agriculture, so they burned down woods, opened spaces, and began to multiply. Pretty soon the island had too many people, too few trees, and then, in only a few generations, no trees at all.

Island without trees

Robert Krulwich/NPR

As Jared Diamond tells it in his best-selling book, Collapse, Easter Island is the “clearest example of a society that destroyed itself by overexploiting its own resources.” Once tree clearing started, it didn’t stop until the whole forest was gone. Diamond called this self-destructive behavior “ecocide” and warned that Easter Island’s fate could one day be our own.

When Captain James Cook visited there in 1774, his crew counted roughly 700 islanders (from an earlier population of thousands), living marginal lives, their canoes reduced to patched fragments of driftwood.

And that has become the lesson of Easter Island — that we don’t dare abuse the plants and animals around us, because if we do, we will, all of us, go down together.

Easter Island Statues

Robert Krulwich/NPR

And yet, puzzlingly, these same people had managed to carve enormous statues — almost a thousand of them, with giant, hollow-eyed, gaunt faces, some weighing 75 tons. The statues faced not outward, not to the sea, but inward, toward the now empty, denuded landscape. When Captain Cook saw them, many of these “moai” had been toppled and lay face down, in abject defeat.

OK, that’s the story we all know, the Collapse story. The new one is very different.

A Story Of Success?

It comes from two anthropologists, Terry Hunt and Carl Lipo, from the University of Hawaii. They say, “Rather than a case of abject failure,” what happened to the people on Easter Island “is an unlikely story of success.”

Success? How could anyone call what happened on Easter Island a “success?”

Well, I’ve taken a look at their book, The Statues That Walked, and oddly enough they’ve got a case, although I’ll say in advance what they call “success” strikes me as just as scary — maybe scarier.

Here’s their argument: Professors Hunt and Lipo say fossil hunters and paleobotanists have found no hard evidence that the first Polynesian settlers set fire to the forest to clear land — what’s called “large scale prehistoric farming.” The trees did die, no question. But instead of fire, Hunt and Lipo blame rats.

Rat next to fallen trees

Robert Krulwich/NPR

Polynesian rats (Rattus exulans) stowed away on those canoes, Hunt and Lipo say, and once they landed, with no enemies and lots of palm roots to eat, they went on a binge, eating and destroying tree after tree, and multiplying at a furious rate. As a reviewer in The Wall Street Journal reported,

In laboratory settings, Polynesian rat populations can double in 47 days. Throw a breeding pair into an island with no predators and abundant food and arithmetic suggests the result … If the animals multiplied as they did in Hawaii, the authors calculate, [Easter Island] would quickly have housed between two and three million. Among the favorite food sources of R. exulans are tree seeds and tree sprouts. Humans surely cleared some of the forest, but the real damage would have come from the rats that prevented new growth.

As the trees went, so did 20 other forest plants, six land birds and several sea birds. So there was definitely less choice in food, a much narrower diet, and yet people continued to live on Easter Island, and food, it seems, was not their big problem.

Rat Meat, Anybody?

For one thing, they could eat rats. As J.B. MacKinnon reports in his new book, The Once and Future World, archeologists examined ancient garbage heaps on Easter Island looking for discarded bones and found “that 60 percent of the bones came from introduced rats.”

So they’d found a meat substitute.

Man with rat on a plate

Robert Krulwich/NPR

What’s more, though the island hadn’t much water and its soil wasn’t rich, the islanders took stones, broke them into bits, and scattered them onto open fields creating an uneven surface. When wind blew in off the sea, the bumpy rocks produced more turbulent airflow, “releasing mineral nutrients in the rock,” J.B. MacKinnon says, which gave the soil just enough of a nutrient boost to support basic vegetables. One tenth of the island had these scattered rock “gardens,” and they produced enough food, “to sustain a population density similar to places like Oklahoma, Colorado, Sweden and New Zealand today.”

According to MacKinnon, scientists say that Easter Island skeletons from that time show “less malnutrition than people in Europe.” When a Dutch explorer, Jacob Roggevin, happened by in 1722, he wrote that islanders didn’t ask for food. They wanted European hats instead. And, of course, starving folks typically don’t have the time or energy to carve and shove 70-ton statues around their island.

A ‘Success’ Story?

Why is this a success story?

Because, say the Hawaiian anthropologists, clans and families on Easter Island didn’t fall apart. It’s true, the island became desolate, emptier. The ecosystem was severely compromised. And yet, say the anthropologists, Easter Islanders didn’t disappear. They adjusted. They had no lumber to build canoes to go deep-sea fishing. They had fewer birds to hunt. They didn’t have coconuts. But they kept going on rat meat and small helpings of vegetables. They made do.

Cooked rat meal

Robert Krulwich/NPR

One niggling question: If everybody was eating enough, why did the population decline? Probably, the professors say, from sexually transmitted diseases after Europeans came visiting.

OK, maybe there was no “ecocide.” But is this good news? Should we celebrate?

I wonder. What we have here are two scenarios ostensibly about Easter Island’s past, but really about what might be our planet’s future. The first scenario — an ecological collapse — nobody wants that. But let’s think about this new alternative — where humans degrade their environment but somehow “muddle through.” Is that better? In some ways, I think this “success” story is just as scary.

The Danger Of ‘Success’

What if the planet’s ecosystem, as J.B. MacKinnon puts it, “is reduced to a ruin, yet its people endure, worshipping their gods and coveting status objects while surviving on some futuristic equivalent of the Easter Islanders’ rat meat and rock gardens?”

Humans are a very adaptable species. We’ve seen people grow used to slums, adjust to concentration camps, learn to live with what fate hands them. If our future is to continuously degrade our planet, lose plant after plant, animal after animal, forgetting what we once enjoyed, adjusting to lesser circumstances, never shouting, “That’s It!” — always making do, I wouldn’t call that “success.”

The Lesson? Remember Tang, The Breakfast Drink

People can’t remember what their great-grandparents saw, ate and loved about the world. They only know what they know. To prevent an ecological crisis, we must become alarmed. That’s when we’ll act. The new Easter Island story suggests that humans may never hit the alarm.

It’s like the story people used to tell about Tang, a sad, flat synthetic orange juice popularized by NASA. If you know what real orange juice tastes like, Tang is no achievement. But if you are on a 50-year voyage, if you lose the memory of real orange juice, then gradually, you begin to think Tang is delicious.

On Easter Island, people learned to live with less and forgot what it was like to have more. Maybe that will happen to us. There’s a lesson here. It’s not a happy one.

As MacKinnon puts it: “If you’re waiting for an ecological crisis to persuade human beings to change their troubled relationship with nature — you could be waiting a long, long time.”

U.N. Panel Issues Its Starkest Warning Yet on Global Warming (New York Times)

Machines digging for brown coal in front of a power plant near Grevenbroich, Germany, in April.CreditMartin Meissner/Associated Press

COPENHAGEN — The gathering risks of climate change are so profound that they could stall or even reverse generations of progress against poverty and hunger if greenhouse emissions continue at a runaway pace, according to a major new United Nations report.

Despite growing efforts in many countries to tackle the problem, the global situation is becoming more acute as developing countries join the West in burning huge amounts of fossil fuels, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said here on Sunday.

Failure to reduce emissions, the group of scientists and other experts found, could threaten society with food shortages, refugee crises, the flooding of major cities and entire island nations, mass extinction of plants and animals, and a climate so drastically altered it might become dangerous for people to work or play outside during the hottest times of the year.

“Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems,” the report found.

In the starkest language it has ever used, the expert panel made clear how far society remains from having any serious policy to limit global warming.

Doing so would require leaving the vast majority of the world’s reserves of fossil fuels in the ground or, alternatively, developing methods to capture and bury the emissions resulting from their use, the group said.

If governments are to meet their own stated goal of limiting the warming of the planet to no more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, or 2 degrees Celsius, above the preindustrial level, they must restrict emissions from additional fossil-fuel burning to about 1 trillion tons of carbon dioxide, the panel said. At current growth rates, that budget is likely to be exhausted in something like 30 years, possibly less.

Yet energy companies have booked coal and petroleum reserves equal to several times that amount, and they are spending some $600 billion a year to find more. Utilities and oil companies continue to build coal-fired power plants and refineries, and governments are spending another $600 billion or so directly subsidizing the consumption of fossil fuels.

By contrast, the report found, less than $400 billion a year is being spent around the world to reduce emissions or otherwise cope with climate change. That is a small fraction of the revenue spent on fossil fuels — it is less, for example, than the revenue of a single American oil company, ExxonMobil.

The new report comes just a month before international delegates convene in Lima, Peru, to devise a new global agreement to limit emissions, and it makes clear the urgency of their task.

Appearing Sunday morning at a news conference in Copenhagen to unveil the report, the United Nations secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, appealed for strong action in Lima.

“Science has spoken. There is no ambiguity in their message,” Mr. Ban said. “Leaders must act. Time is not on our side.”

Yet there has been no sign that national leaders are willing to discuss allocating the trillion-ton emissions budget among countries, an approach that would confront the problem head-on, but also raise deep questions of fairness. To the contrary, they are moving toward a relatively weak agreement that would essentially let each country decide for itself how much effort to put into limiting global warming, and even that document would not take effect until 2020.

“If they choose not to talk about the carbon budget, they’re choosing not to address the problem of climate change,” said Myles R. Allen, a climate scientist at Oxford University in Britain who helped write the new report. “They might as well not bother to turn up for these meetings.”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a scientific body appointed by the world’s governments to advise them on the causes and effects of global warming, and potential solutions. The group, along with Al Gore, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 for its efforts to call attention to the climate crisis.

The new report is a 175-page synopsis of a much longer series of reports that the panel has issued over the past year. It is the final step in a five-year effort by the body to analyze a vast archive of published climate research.

It is the fifth such report from the group since 1990, each finding greater certainty that the climate is warming and that human activities are the primary cause.

“Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in global mean sea-level rise; and it is extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century,” the report said.

A core finding of the new report is that climate change is no longer a distant threat, but is being felt all over the world. “It’s here and now,” Rajendra K. Pachauri, the chairman of the panel, said in an interview. “It’s not something in the future.”

The group cited mass die-offs of forests, such as those killed by heat-loving beetles in the American West; the melting of land ice virtually everywhere in the world; an accelerating rise of the seas that is leading to increased coastal flooding; and heat waves that have devastated crops and killed tens of thousands of people.

The report contained the group’s most explicit warning yet about the food supply, saying that climate change had already become a small drag on overall global production, and could become a far larger one if emissions continued unchecked.

A related finding is that climate change poses serious risks to basic human progress, in areas such as alleviating poverty. Under the worst-case scenarios, factors like high food prices and intensified weather disasters would most likely leave poor people worse off. In fact, the report said, that has already happened to a degree.

In Washington, the Obama administration welcomed the report, with the president’s science adviser, John P. Holdren, calling it “yet another wake-up call to the global community that we must act together swiftly and aggressively in order to stem climate change and avoid its worst impacts.”

The administration is pushing for new limits on emissions from American power plants, but faces stiff resistance in Congress and some states.

Michael Oppenheimer, a climate scientist at Princeton University and a principal author of the new report, said that a continuation of the political paralysis on emissions would leave society depending largely on luck.

If the level of greenhouse gases were to continue rising at a rapid pace over the coming decades, severe effects would be avoided only if the climate turned out to be far less sensitive to those gases than most scientists think likely, he said.

“We’ve seen many governments delay and delay and delay on implementing comprehensive emissions cuts,” Dr. Oppenheimer said. “So the need for a lot of luck looms larger and larger. Personally, I think it’s a slim reed to lean on for the fate of the planet.”

Quando vai acabar a água do Cantareira e do Alto Tietê? Cenários, por Sérgio Reis (Luis Nassif Online)

SAB, 01/11/2014 – 08:08

Para “celebrar” o 29º artigo a respeito da crise hídrica, resolvi montar um fluxograma para tentar explicar didaticamente aos leitores o futuro dos sistemas Cantareira e Alto Tietê. O fundamento desse exercício é basicamente a questão: nas condições atuais, até quando eles vão durar?

A maneira básica para estipular esse prazo se dá por meio de uma técnica chamada de “construção de cenários”. Em linhas gerais, trata-se de determinar, com base em algum critério razoável, como se comportarão determinadas variáveis consideradas importantes para a explicação do resultado que se está tentando prever.

Considerando-se a gravidade da crise hídrica e a validade do próprio argumento, exaustivamente empregado pelo Governo Alckmin, a respeito da excepcionalidade hidrológica e pluviométrica enfrentada, seria óbvio admitir como cenário possível (e, até mesmo, provável), a continuidade das condições atuais ao longo dos próximos meses. Isso é particularmente evidente quando notamos que não há, até o presente momento, elementos que nos forneçam indícios de que o futuro será radicalmente diferente.

No entanto, o “plano de contingência” delineado pela SABESP não fez isso. Pelo contrário, construiu 3 cenários e considerou, como o pior deles, a repetição da estiagem de 1953 (sendo os outros a própria média histórica e o equivalente a 50% dessa média, em todos os casos a partir das vazões de entrada de água). O problema é que, em 2014, observamos que a água que entra no sistema tem equivalido a apenas 44% desse pior ano. Se já faria pouco sentido não considerar o prolongamento desse contexto vigente como o mais plausível na confecção do planejamento, sequer considera-lo como um cenário a ser desenhado beira a mais absoluta irresponsabilidade.

Por óbvio, contudo, a razão para essa não admissão desse contexto nos cálculos (e apenas a sua utilização como retórica de defesa para justificar a crise) está, simplesmente, no fato de o governo não dispor de alternativas para o caso de a escassez permanecer. E não seria nada alentador, é claro, se a SABESP confessasse isso ou plotasse os dados desse cenário mais adverso em seus relatórios.

Para contribuir nesse sentido, resolvi montar dois fluxogramas: um para o Sistema Cantareira, outro para o Alto Tietê. Para o caso do Cantareira, o que fiz foi: 1) calcular, para o período considerado crítico do ponto de vista da estiagem (Janeiro-Outubro/2014) qual a relação percentual entre as vazões de entrada e as vazões médias históricas (22,43%); 2) utilizar o valor encontrado para estipular as vazões de entrada para os próximos meses, considerando-se esse referencial; 3) admitir a vazão média de saída de 22,5 m³/s (aproximadamente a atual, a partir da soma entre os 18 m³/s que vão para São Paulo – valor prometido pela SABESP – com os 4,5 m³/s enviados para as cidades da Bacia do PCJ – valor atual); 4) calcular o déficit diário e mensal, a partir das variáveis acima.

O resultado pode ser conferido abaixo:

Como é possível observar na figura, busquei considerar outras questões possíveis, como a eventual impossibilidade de extrair toda a 2ª cota do volume morto, ou a judicialização da questão a partir da extração da 3ª cota (que impedirá, nas condições atuais, o envio obrigatório de água para o PCJ), ou ainda a inviabilidade técnica de extração, na parte ou no todo, dessa 3ª cota. De todo modo, fica claro perceber que, mesmo que seja possível retirar toda a água restante no Sistema – sem qualquer óbice operacional –, notamos que o Cantareira duraria até 21 de Julho de 2015. A partir daí, ele estaria totalmente esgotado, e passaríamos a viver em uma situação ainda pior do que a observada, atualmente, para a cidade de Itu. Seria o caos completo para, pelo menos, 10 milhões de habitantes.

Dadas as crescentes dificuldades operacionais, contudo, é válido supor que o esgotamento (ou a inviabilidade da continuidade do abastecimento) ocorreria antes – talvez em Abril, quando o Sistema se encontraria, aproximadamente, com – 31% de sua capacidade operacional (o valor, em Abril de 2014, era de 15% positivo). Como sabemos, não parece o Governo dispor, pelo menos para daqui a 2 ou 3 anos, de alternativas capazes de compensar devidamente o esgotamento do Cantareira. O futuro, nesse cenário, é o da total e absoluta falta de água para todas as atividades humanas – das mais triviais e satisfacionais, até aquelas relacionadas à produção agrícola, comercial e industrial. O impacto disso sobre a vida em sociedade é incalculável.

No Alto Tietê, a situação ainda é incrivelmente mais dramática

Se a situação do Cantareira é apavorante, no Alto Tietê ela é nada menos do que indescritível. Para a construção do fluxograma abaixo, voltado a apresentar a continuidade do cenário atual, admitimos: 1) a continuidade das vazões atuais de saída, de cerca de 15 m³/s; 2) a manutenção dos padrões de déficit atuais (verificados, pelo menos, desde Julho, quando iniciei um monitoramento diário do Sistema) para as represas de Paraitinga e Ponte Nova (de cerca de 520 milhões de litros ao dia) e para as represas de Biritiba-Mirim, Jundiaí e Taiaçupeba (de cerca de 346,65 milhões de litros ao dia); 3) o cálculo dos déficits diárias, verificando-se o impacto deles nas reservas remanescentes das represas.

A confecção desse cenário resultou no seguinte fluxograma:

Notamos, então, que a extrema gravidade da situação do Alto Tietê pode ser percebida a partir do fato de que, mesmo que admitamos a completa extração dos volumes mortos de Biritiba-Mirim e de Jundiaí, o Sistema se esgota completamente em meados de Janeiro (no dia 15, de acordo com a simulação). Isso significa o fim do abastecimento para mais de 5 milhões de pessoas, em um prazo seis meses mais cedo do que o identificado para o Cantareira.

Vale dizer que a contabilidade dos volumes mortos sequer tem sido admitida pela SABESP, embora ela já esteja a pleno vapor, há várias semanas, no caso da represa de Biritiba (mais de 4 bilhões de litros já foram retirados). Os estudos, para esse sistema, são bem mais precários, de forma que temos muito menos noção de se, efetivamente, toda essa água situada abaixo dos níveis operacionais poderia ser, de fato, extraída. Qualquer imprevisto nessa condição significaria o desabastecimento já para Dezembro ou, até mesmo, para Novembro.

No caso do Sistema Cantareira, um Comitê Anticrise foi formado, a partir de iniciativa federal, e então forçou-se a gradativa redução da retirada de água dos seus reservatórios (hoje, as vazões de saída correspondem a pouco mais da metade das observadas em Janeiro, logo antes da criação do GTAG). No caso do Alto Tietê, sistema sobre o qual a ANA não possui qualquer interferência legal, a SABESP manteve as elevadíssimas vazões de saída – as quais foram irresponsavelmente autorizadas pelo DAEE em Fevereiro, quando a crise já era óbvia (conforme assinalou a recente – e indeferida – Ação Civil Pública protocolada pelo Ministério Público Estadual). A tragédia desse sistema, então, é a verbalização mais clara da gestão criminosa realizada pelo Governo do Estado de São Paulo.

Em síntese, a crise hídrica vai adquirindo proporções jamais imagináveis para qualquer um de nós mesmo há cerca de 6 meses, quando ela ganhou alguma publicidade. Suas consequências vão se tornando cada vez mais trágicas e tétricas para um público potencial de praticamente 10% da população brasileira. Mais do que nunca, levando-se em conta a completa inação do Governo Alckmin, será preciso que a sociedade – a Academia, as ONGs, os militantes e quem mais se dispuser – tome as rédeas do processo de tentativa de sua superação. A arrogância do governo tucano em lidar com o problema, como já aprendemos por mal, jamais poderá ser a sua solução, mas apenas um lastimável tapar de sol com a peneira – exatamente o contrário do que precisamos.

Os: Abaixo, deixei os links para todos os 28 artigos anteriores que publiquei aqui no Blog do Nassif e no Jornal GGN a respeito da crise hídrica. Conforme sabem os colegas mais assíduos, desde Abril eu tenho buscado informar, a partir de uma perspectiva crítica, a população, compartilhando minhas análises, estudos e achados. Pretendo continuar dando minha contribuição, sabendo, agora, que felizmente, muitos cidadãos igualmente indignados estão se articulando e produzindo conteúdos para que venhamos a refletir e agir sobre essa trágica crise.

  1. http://www.jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/o-factoide-da-3%C2%AA-cota-do-volume-morto-e-as-futuras-guerras-pela-agua-por-sergio-reis
  2. http://www.jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/crise-hidrica-sera-que-as-obras-do-segundo-volume-morto-ficarao-prontas-a-tempo
  3. http://www.jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/o-alto-tiete-chega-ao-volume-morto-e-o-cantareira-ao-fio-da-navalha
  4. http://www.jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/a-crise-hidrica-e-culpa-da-falta-de-planejamento-e-gestao-de-alckmin-dados-e-fatos
  5. http://www.jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/o-levanta-e-corta-entre-mp-e-sabesp-na-crise-da-agua-por-sergio-reis
  6. http://www.jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/sergio-reis-por-que-a-crise-da-agua-nao-impactou-a-eleicao-para-o-governo-de-sp
  7. http://jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/crise-hidrica-a-historica-inco…
  8. http://jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/alckmin-a-entrevista-para-a-fo…
  9. http://jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/o-otimismo-do-governo-de-sp-so…
  10. http://jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/sergio-reis-e-possivel-tirar-m…
  11. http://jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/agua-a-operacao-abafa-da-midia…
  12. http://jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/a-hora-da-verdade-da-crise-hid…
  13. http://jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/a-lastimavel-situacao-da-repre…
  14. http://jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/especial-crise-hidrica-na-folh…
  15. http://jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/historia-recente-da-gestao-do-…
  16. http://jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/sistema-alto-tiete-chega-ao-pi…
  17. http://jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/a-crise-hidrica-no-1%C2%BA-deb…
  18. http://jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/a-nova-falacia-de-alckmin-e-o-…
  19. http://jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/que-papel-poderia-ter-o-govern…
  20. http://jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/crise-agua-em-sp-como-um-probl…
  21. http://jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/alckmin-a-crise-da-agua-e-o-se…
  22. http://jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/a-inseguranca-hidrica-de-alckm…
  23. http://jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/um-diagnostico-sobre-a-dramati…
  24. http://jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/a-estrategia-de-comunicacao-do…
  25. http://jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/um-novo-capitulo-da-crise-da-a…
  26. http://jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/a-democratizacao-da-midia-como…
  27. http://jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/de-quem-e-a-responsabilidade-p…
  28. http://jornalggn.com.br/blog/sergiorgreis/a-questao-da-agua-em-sao-paulo