Arquivo da tag: Incerteza

Reviewing the Nisbet ‘Climate Shift’ Report and Controversial Claims of Media Progress (Yale Forum on Climate Change & The Media)

by John Wihbey | July 11, 2011

Matt Nisbet’s ‘Climate Shift’ research report raised headline-grabbing points on fundraising successes by those advocating action on climate change. But it’s what lies behind those headlines — and relating specifically to media coverage — that also warrants further review and analysis.

Few pieces of recent academic research on climate change have stirred up as much controversy as American University professor Matthew Nisbet’s April 2011 report “Climate Shift: Clear Vision for the Next Decade of Public Debate.”

The report’s biggest headline-grabbing finding — that the environmental lobby is now holding its own in the money race with industry groups opposing carbon regulations — doubtless will generate further analysis, and one can imagine more such annual scorecards assessing this power struggle. And the questions “Climate Shift” raises about the relative political wisdom — or lack of same — in pushing the failed cap-and-trade bill in Congress may well be debated by historians for years to come.

Perhaps the most underappreciated facet of the scholarship that Nisbet put forth, however, involves his analysis of media coverage in the years 2009-2010, contained in his provocatively titled chapter 3, “The Death of a Norm: Evaluating False Balance in News Coverage.”

According to Nisbet’s story-by-story analysis that covers the vertiginous period involving Copenhagen, the so-called “climategate” hacked e-mails, and federal cap-and-trade, the mainstream media — represented in his analysis by The New York Times, CNN.com, The Wall Street Journal, Politico, and The Washington Post — basically moved past the oft-criticized journalistic mode of “he said, she said,” or “false balance.” In its place, those media generally reflected the “consensus science” as backed by organizations such as the U.N.’s IPCC and the National Academy of Sciences and most of its international counterparts. (The opinion pages of the Journal are bracketed as an exception, and Nisbet’s analysis shows that its editorials do indeed continue to cast doubt on climate science.)

Nisbet’s assertion is a profound one, with significant implications. His stated goal with “Climate Shift” is to help reorient the priorities of groups trying to combat global change through the promotion of science and smart messaging to the public. (See companion posting based on author’s extensive e-mail interview with Nisbet.)
“[I]f trend-setting national media have overwhelmingly portrayed the consensus views on the fundamentals of climate science (as the report’s findings indicate),” Nisbet wrote in a recent e-mail interview with The Yale Forum, “then we should be turning to other types of media organizations in our engagement efforts and focusing on other dimensions of coverage, including … subsidizing the ability of local and regional media to cover climate change and energy insecurity as these challenges relate to their region and communities.” These are ideas Nisbet has raised also in previous reports.

Lines of Criticism

Bloggers at Media Matters do criticize how Nisbet interprets his data around the “climategate” period — one of the few on-the-numbers critiques. Nisbet responds that changes in coverage since then are either not “statistically significant” or “not meaningful.”

Other than that, few have questioned the particulars of Nisbet’s labor-intensive analysis of how those five outlets performed. Their selection — and the exclusion of others — though, is the subject of debate.

Nisbet says he chose those specific news outlets because they set the news agenda and have high-volume traffic, as reflected in Nielsen-tabulated figures. CNN.com, the Post and the Times ranked numbers 4, 5 and 9, respectively, in terms of web traffic in 2009. But given that news aggregators such as Yahoo, AOL, and Google ranked 1, 3, and 6, respectively, one might think that Nisbet’s universe of analysis did not capture the true flow of public news information.

The combined traffic of the aggregators is nearly twice that of the news sites Nisbet focused on. Admittedly, though, these aggregators would be a moving target — and an empirical analysis of the quality of news linked to would be difficult — but that’s where some huge portion of the public gets its news and information, and therefore its impressions and opinions.

(One other quibble, about the selection of Politico: Nisbet calls it “the paper ‘the White House wakes up to,’ as memorably headlined in a profile at The New York Times.” In fact, the article he cites is really just a profile of Politico reporter Mike Allen and his important day calendar “Playbook” blog. Though Politico is powerful and prolific, what constitutes “the paper of record for members of Congress,” as Nisbet puts it, may be an issue of reasonable disagreement among media watchers.)

Climate communications expert and University of Colorado-Boulder professor Max Boykoff was one of the formal reviewers for the “Climate Shift” report. He told The Yale Forum in an e-mail interview, “Overall, I found [Nisbet’s] work in Chapter 3 to be good. As he assembled it I spoke with Matt multiple times. (Chapter 3 was the part of the report I most focused on). We discussed how to replicate the methods and approaches that I undertook in my work on empirically testing the accuracy of coverage about human contributions to climate change (aka, the ‘balance as bias’ thesis). His methods and findings (re: WSJ op-ed divergence etc.) appeared valid and reliable.”

Still, Boykoff stated a potentially striking limitation of this type of analysis in his reviewer comments submitted back to Nisbet: Such analysis “still isn’t equipped to gauge how one particular carefully/prominently/well- or ill-timed article or commentary could have a much greater influence on public perceptions and views than consistently inaccurate treatment. In other words, the sometimes haphazard nature of media consumption — from skimming articles to just hearing/watching portions of a segment — isn’t accounted for through this approach. At the end of the day, these studies … struggle to account for ‘selective listening’ or ‘selective reading’ that we actually engage in during our daily lives.”

Boykoff also said he told Nisbet that his (Nisbet’s) research had not provided sufficient support for the “Climate Shift” report’s contention that “even in a world of blogs and fragmented audiences, the coverage appearing at these outlets strongly shapes the news decisions made at the broadcast and cable networks and informs the decisions of policymakers.”

The Fox News Question

Other notable criticisms of Nisbet’s approach in Chapter 3 of his report have focused on his exclusion of television sources, particularly Fox News. Prolific blogger and energy/climate expert Joseph Romm, who leveled ferocious criticism of Nisbet on his “Climate Progress” blog, makes much of this point. This dispute is a tricky one, resting on a difficult-to-resolve social science debate about how “persuade-able” the Fox News audience is, and just how best to measure the impacts of its huge ratings and online readership as part of American political consciousness.

In his comments to The Yale Forum, Nisbet replied, “As I discuss in the report, the audience for Fox News and political talk radio tend to be strongly self-selecting with consumption of these media tending to reinforce the views of those already doubtful or dismissive of climate change (approximately 25 percent of Americans).” Moreover, he says it “is not clear how these unsurprising findings would help us to move forward since any level of engagement with Fox News producers or talk radio hosts is unlikely to lead to changes in their coverage patterns. We can complain about and criticize these outlets, but much of the criticism and anger, I would argue, often ends up distracting us from initiatives where we can make a difference with journalists, editors, and with different publics.”

This latter point, of course, highlights an important facet of Nisbet’s project, namely that it has a particular goal, an “agenda” even, that puts an emphasis on both utility, or making a “difference,” and on truth as criteria for inquiry. (It’s possible this is where he opens the door for controversy, as it leaves him open to criticisms that he is downplaying conservative media and thereby painting an unduly positive picture of the U.S. media as a whole on climate issues.)

Columbia Journalism Review science editor Curtis Brainard told The Yale Forum recently that he thinks the spirit of Nisbet’s report is basically right in Chapter 3, at least as it relates to “news reporters and news articles.” For Nisbet and Brainard both, broad accusations that public ignorance is the media’s “fault” are no longer well-founded.

“There is this conventional wisdom floating around out there that journalists are inept, rarely able to get their facts straight or explain or deliver an accurate account of events,” Brainard wrote in an e-mail. “They’re not. But it’s much easier for activists and other policy or program stakeholders to blame the media when things don’t go their way than to analyze the much more complicated interplay of multiple factors.”

(As an aside, Brainard notes that he wrote about precisely this dynamic in his recent article, “Tornadoes and Climate Change,” which pushes back against such charges leveled by environmental writer and activist Bill McKibben. Brainard says McKibben is too quick to condemn the media as a whole for not making connections between various extreme weather events.)

We’re past those earlier days, Brainard told The Yale Forum, when the basic questions about climate science are portrayed in most mainstream news media as being unsettled: “The coverage has become so much more sophisticated since then, delving into the specific consequences of climate change, from sea level rise, to changing precipitation and drought patterns, to consequences for flora and fauna. Many reporters struggle to accurately explain the highly uncertain and nuanced science underlying these phenomena, but the flaws in the coverage are quite different from the false balance that was on exhibit before, say, 2006. First of all, there is nowhere near as much scientific consensus about these finer points of climate science as there is about the fundamentals (i.e., the Earth is warming, and humans are most likely to blame), so today’s stories are really apples compared with yesterday’s oranges.”

Work Ahead for Media, Scholars

If Nisbet’s report has an underlying flaw, perhaps, it may be in its packaging, particularly in its “Move On”-style message and ambition to deliver a definitive verdict. Its real virtue is that it has just very effectively — whether or not one buys it all — started a different kind of conversation. And given that just five outlets were analyzed in the report, there is certainly much more conversation to be had.

As mentioned, Nisbet has said he is already carrying out new research and further study on local and regional media. (See his latest thoughts on this issue as they relate to Chicago.) It’s a cause on which all academics and media professionals and critics might agree, as the business model for such outlets continues to erode. Local information ecosystems are changing, shifting, and in many cases decaying. But many observers point out how essential they remain.

“It would also be good to look at the practically countless number of local TV network affiliates across the country since, collectively, they are where most Americans still get their news,” Brainard also noted.

“Local newspapers, as Pew has documented, remain at the center of the local media ecosystem, with the overwhelming number of regional/local issues covered by local TV news and at local blogs originating from local newspaper coverage,” Nisbet said. “In this sense, on climate change and energy, we should think about local and regional newspapers as being part of the central communication infrastructure that regions and communities need to learn, connect, plan and make collective choices on the issue.”

Perhaps, through further studies by Nisbet and others, this important work on local and regional media — their shortcomings and needs — can shed additional light.

John Wihbey is a regular contributor to the Yale Forum. He is a journalist and researcher, and he can be reached at jpwihb@yahoo.com.

Nordeste perde um quinto dos reservatórios de água em 2010 (FSP)

JC e-mail 4304, de 20 de Julho de 2011.

Relatório aponta bacias da região semiárida como as mais críticas.

A região Nordeste do País perdeu, entre outubro de 2009 e outubro de 2010, 20% dos reservatórios de água que possuía no período anterior, segundo a ANA (Agência Nacional de Águas). O dado está em um relatório sobre os recursos hídricos do País, publicado ontem e disponível em http://bit.ly/pnZBqo. Segundo a agência, a perda de reservatórios na região se deve à menor quantidade de chuvas.

Na região ficam as bacias do Semiárido, um dos pontos críticos quanto aos recursos hídricos, segundo o relatório. Também são classificadas assim as bacias do rio Meia Ponte, no Centro-Oeste, e a do Tietê, no Sudeste.

A definição leva em conta a disponibilidade e o uso de água, além da presença ou não de vegetação nativa e como é feito o tratamento dos resíduos sólidos no local. Segundo a ministra do Meio Ambiente, Izabella Teixeira, a ideia é, a partir dos dados do relatório, “focar os esforços nas áreas críticas”.

A ampliação dos serviços de saneamento foi apontada como prioridade pela ministra, principalmente nas cidades de até 50 mil habitantes. O pior índice de qualidade da água é o das áreas de grande densidade urbana.
(Folha de São Paulo)

Rios em péssimas condições (O Globo)

JC e-mail 4304, de 20 de Julho de 2011.

Brasil tem só 4% de recursos hídricos com qualidade ótima, segundo relatório.

Com 12% da oferta de água do planeta, o Brasil tem apenas 4% de seus recursos hídricos com qualidade considerada ótima, percentual que caiu seis pontos de 2008 para 2009. Segundo avaliação do “Informe 2011 da Conjuntura dos Recursos Hídricos do Brasil”, divulgado ontem pela Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA), cem rios estão em situação ruim ou péssima.

Para avaliar o índice de qualidade da água, a agência usa nove parâmetros, que levam em conta principalmente a contaminação dos rios pelo lançamento de esgoto. Essa centena de rios em situação precária não consegue depurar naturalmente a quantidade de resíduos que vêm recebendo. Embora o governo argumente que está fazendo investimentos em políticas públicas de saneamento, mais da metade das cidades do país – 2.926 municípios – não tem tratamento de esgoto. O relatório aponta que em 2009 foram investidos R$21,4 bilhões em saneamento e gestão da água, sendo R$13,2 bilhões em obras de tratamento de esgoto.

A água de pior qualidade se concentra perto das regiões metropolitanas de São Paulo, Curitiba, Belo Horizonte, Porto Alegre, Rio de Janeiro e Salvador e das cidades de médio porte, como Campinas (SP) e Juiz de Fora (MG). Entre os rios cuja água é de péssima ou má qualidade, estão o Tietê, que corta a capital paulista, o Iguaçu, que forma as famosas Cataratas do Iguaçu, e o Guandu-Mirim, no Rio – os dois últimos ficam dentro de unidades de conservação, o Parque Nacional do Iguaçu e a Área de Proteção Ambiental (APA) do Rio Guandu, respectivamente.

Entre 2008 e 2009, a água de qualidade péssima no país se manteve em 2%; a ruim aumentou de 6% para 7%; a regular passou de 12% para 16% e a boa subiu de 70% para 71%. Nesse período, o número de pontos monitorados caiu de 1.812 para 1.747. O superintendente de Planejamento de Recursos Hídricos da agência, Ney Maranhão, mostrou-se satisfeito com os resultados do estudo.

– Temos 90,6% dos rios num estado satisfatório de qualidade e de disponibilidade (quantidade de água). Apenas 2% não apresentam resultado satisfatório – avaliou Maranhão, que coordenou o trabalho.

Estresse hídrico e agricultura – Maranhão ressaltou que as políticas públicas têm sido direcionadas para as bacias que estão em situação crítica, seja por apresentarem baixa disponibilidade ou qualidade de água. A maior parte dos rios e bacias com problema de oferta de água se encontra no Nordeste.

A ministra do Meio Ambiente, Izabella Teixeira, disse que, no futuro, o estresse hídrico (falta de água em algumas regiões do país) vai impactar na agricultura. Ao todo, 69% dos recursos consumidos pela população são usados em irrigação. Izabella aproveitou a ocasião para mandar um recado ao Congresso, onde tramita a reforma do Código Florestal.

– Quando estamos discutindo Código Florestal, não falamos apenas do uso do solo. Estamos falando de recursos hídricos e qualidade de vida. O relatório traz com muita propriedade o estresse hídrico com perda de mata ciliar (vegetação nativa às margens dos rios). Onde se desmata mata ciliar, há comprometimento dos recursos hídricos – afirmou a ministra.

O levantamento da ANA também levou em conta o problema das mudanças climáticas, responsáveis por eventos naturais extremos em datas diferentes no ano passado: a estiagem na Amazônia; as enchentes em Alagoas, Pernambuco e em Minas Gerais; as cheias no Rio, em São Paulo e no Rio Grande do Sul. Um exemplo do agravamento dessa situação: em 2006, foram registradas 135 situações de emergência ou de calamidade pública por conta de fortes chuvas. Em 2010, esse número de ocorrências subiu para 601. No total, quase 10% das cidades brasileiras – 563 municípios – decretaram situação de emergência devido a enchentes, inundações, enxurradas e alagamentos.

No caso das secas, houve uma inversão: 2010 registrou menos casos de emergência (583) do que 2006 (914). Entre 2009 e 2010 houve diminuição de 20,8% no nível dos reservatórios de água construídos no Nordeste para combater estiagens.
(O Globo)

La Niña’s Exit Leaves Climate Forecasts in Limbo (NASA)

06.29.11

The latest satellite data of Pacific Ocean sea surface heights from the NASA/European Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2 satellite show near-normal conditions in the equatorial Pacific. The image is based on the average of 10 days of data centered on June 18, 2011. Higher (warmer) than normal sea surface heights are indicated by yellows and reds, while lower (cooler) than normal sea surface heights are depicted in blues and purples. Green indicates near-normal conditions. Image credit: NASA/JPL Ocean Surface Topography Team

It’s what Bill Patzert, a climatologist and oceanographer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., likes to call a “La Nada” – that puzzling period between cycles of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean when sea surface heights in the equatorial Pacific are near average.

The comings and goings of El Niño and La Niña are part of a long-term, evolving state of global climate, for which measurements of sea surface height are a key indicator. For the past three months, since last year’s strong La Niña event dissipated, data collected by the U.S.-French Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM)/Jason-2 oceanography satellite have shown that the equatorial Pacific sea surface heights have been stable and near average. Elsewhere, however, the northeastern Pacific Ocean remains quite cool, with sea levels much lower than normal. The presence of cool ocean waters off the U.S. West Coast has also been a factor in this year’s cool and foggy spring there.

The current state of the Pacific is shown in this OSTM/Jason-2 image, based on the average of 10 days of data centered on June 18, 2011. The image depicts places where Pacific sea surface height is higher (warmer) than normal as yellow and red, while places where the sea surface is lower (cooler) than normal are shown in blue and purple. Green indicates near-normal conditions. Sea surface height is an indicator of how much of the sun’s heat is stored in the upper ocean.

For oceanographers and climate scientists like Patzert, “La Nada” conditions can bring with them a high degree of uncertainty. While some forecasters (targeting the next couple of seasons) have suggested La Nada will bring about “normal” weather conditions, Patzert cautions previous protracted La Nadas have often delivered unruly jet stream patterns and wild weather swings.

In addition, some climatologists are pondering whether a warm El Niño pattern (which often follows La Niña) may be lurking over the horizon. Patzert says that would be perfectly fine for the United States.

“For the United States, there would be some positives to the appearance of El Niño this summer,” Patzert said. “The parched and fire-ravaged southern tier of the country would certainly benefit from a good El Niño soaking. Looking ahead to late August and September, El Niño would also tend to dampen the 2011 hurricane season in the United States. We’ve had enough wild and punishing weather this year. Relief from the drought across the southern United States and a mild hurricane season would be very welcome.”

Jason-2 scientists will continue to monitor Pacific Ocean sea surface heights for signs of El Niño, La Niña or prolonged neutral conditions.

JPL manages the U.S. portion of the OSTM/Jason-2 mission for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate, Washington, D.C.

For more information on NASA’s ocean surface topography missions, visit: http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/.

To view the latest Jason-1 and OSTM/Jason-2 data, visit: http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/latestdata/.

Alan Buis 818-354-0474
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
Alan.buis@jpl.nasa.gov

2011-199

Estudo faz diagnóstico atualizado da situação da água e de sua gestão no Brasil (ANA)

JC e-mail 4303, de 19 de Julho de 2011.

Relatório da ANA aponta desafios para a qualidade das águas e evolução da gestão dos recursos hídricos.

A partir de hoje (19), o Brasil saberá qual é a real situação da água no País em vários aspectos, como: disponibilidade hídrica, qualidade e gestão de recursos hídricos. A Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA) divulga o Relatório de Conjuntura dos Recursos Hídricos no Brasil – Informe 2011. A publicação estará disponível também no site: http://conjuntura.ana.gov.br/conjuntura/.

Com dados consolidados até dezembro de 2010, o estudo da ANA, que atende a uma demanda do Conselho Nacional de Recursos Hídricos, é uma ferramenta de acompanhamento sistemático e anual da condição dos recursos hídricos e de sua gestão em escala nacional, por regiões hidrográficas, em temas fundamentais para o setor de recursos hídricos, como: volume de chuvas; ocorrência de eventos hidrológicos críticos (secas e cheias); disponibilidade hídrica nas diferentes regiões do Brasil; os usos múltiplos da água (irrigação, saneamento e hidroeletricidade, por exemplo); qualidade das águas; a evolução dos comitês de bacias; o planejamento, a regulação e a cobrança pelo uso dos recursos hídricos.

O trabalho registra melhorias na qualidade da água na última década em algumas bacias brasileiras, que receberam investimentos em tratamento de esgotos. Além disso, o estudo mostra que em 2010, 19% dos municípios brasileiros decretaram situação de emergência ou estado de calamidade pública devido à ocorrência de cheias ou problemas de estiagem ou seca, sendo que o número geral desses registros caiu de 1967, em 2009, para 1184 no ano passado. No aspecto da gestão de recursos hídricos, o Informe 2011 indica um aumento do número de comitês de bacias e da área de cobertura do território nacional por planos de recursos hídricos (51% do território nacional) – planos diretores que visam a fundamentar e orientar a implementação do gerenciamento e da Política Nacional de Recursos Hídricos.

O Informe 2011 contém uma análise considerando de forma integrada os aspectos de quantidade (relação entre demanda de água e oferta – balanço quantitativo) e qualidade da água nas bacias brasileiras. Os resultados dessa avaliação apontam para um conjunto de bacias críticas, onde há maior potencial para ocorrência de conflitos pelo uso da água, que deverão merecer atenção crescente por parte dos gestores de recursos hídricos.

Para a ministra do Meio Ambiente, Izabella Teixeira, o Relatório de Conjuntura dos Recursos Hídricos no Brasil – Informe 2011 é uma ferramenta importante para que o País conheça a realidade da condição de suas águas. “O acompanhamento e a avaliação da situação dos recursos hídricos em escala nacional pelo Relatório subsidiam a definição das ações e intervenções necessárias para a melhora da quantidade e da qualidade das águas”, afirma.

Segundo o diretor-presidente da ANA, Vicente Andreu, o Informe 2011 permite o acompanhamento dos desafios e da evolução do setor de recursos hídricos no Brasil. “Por meio do Relatório de Conjuntura, os gestores públicos têm um panorama da situação dos recursos hídricos do País, o que permite a evolução da gestão de nossas águas”, destaca.

Para a elaboração do Relatório de Conjuntura – Informe 2011, a ANA contou com a parceria da Secretaria de Recursos Hídricos e Ambiente Urbano do Ministério do Meio Ambiente (SRHU/MMA), Departamento Nacional de Obras contras as Secas (DNOCS), do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (Inmet) e de todos os órgãos gestores estaduais de recursos hídricos e meio ambiente.

A primeira edição do Relatório de Conjuntura foi lançada em 2009, em reunião do Conselho Nacional de Recursos Hídricos (CNRH). No ano seguinte, o trabalho serviu de base para a 1ª atualização do Plano Nacional de Recursos Hídricos. Entre 2010 e 2012, estão previstos Informes anuais que atualizam os dados do estudo.

Qualidade das águas – Em comparação ao Informe 2010, o diagnóstico dos mais de 1.700 pontos analisados quanto à qualidade das águas revela a manutenção do quadro geral do País com várias bacias comprometidas devido ao grande lançamento de esgotos urbanos domésticos sem tratamento adequado, especialmente nas regiões metropolitanas. No entanto, em algumas bacias foi possível associar melhorias na qualidade das águas a investimentos realizados em tratamento de esgotos na última década, como por exemplo nas seguintes bacias: do rio das Velhas, Paraíba do Sul, Grande e Tietê (Reservatório Billings – Braço do Taquacetuba).

Eventos críticos – Em 2010, exatos 563 municípios brasileiros decretaram situação de emergência ou estado de calamidade pública devido à ocorrência de cheias, causadas por chuvas acima da média histórica. São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Alagoas, Pernambuco, Bahia e os estados da região Sul foram os mais atingidos. Já o Semiárido e a região Amazônica concentraram a maior parte dos 521 municípios (aproximadamente 9% do total nacional) que tiveram que decretar situação de emergência ou estado de calamidade pública em decorrência de estiagem (evento mais duradouro) ou seca. Em comparação a 2009, o número de ocorrências de 2010 caiu de 1967 para 1184.

Irrigação – Responsável por 69% do consumo de água no Brasil, a irrigação atingia no final da última década 4,5 milhões de hectares irrigados dos 29,6 milhões irrigáveis.

Hidroeletricidade – Entre 2009 e 2010, ocorreu um aumento de 2.093 MW (acréscimo de 3%) na capacidade hidrelétrica instalada que alcançou, ao final de 2010, 80.703 MW, o que representa 71% da matriz elétrica nacional.

Gestão de recursos hídricos – Sobre o planejamento de recursos hídricos em bacias interestaduais, em 2010 foi concluído e aprovado o Plano de Recursos Hídricos da Bacia do Rio Doce. Os planos da Bacia Amazônica – Afluentes da Margem Direita e Verde Grande, concluídos em 2010, tiveram sua aprovação em 2011, respectivamente pelo CNRH e pelo comitê da bacia do Verde Grande. Com isso, a cobertura do território brasileiro por planos de recursos hídricos finalizados chegou a 51%. Com a conclusão de seus planos estaduais de recursos hídricos, Piauí e Minas Gerais fizeram com que 12 das 27 da unidades da Federação tivessem o instrumento. Estes planos diretores visam a fundamentar e orientar a implementação do gerenciamento e da Política Nacional de Recursos Hídricos.

No que diz respeito aos comitês de bacias, em 2007 havia 150 no País. Já em 2010, o número chegou a 173 desses colegiados (um tipo de parlamento das águas), sendo 164 estaduais e 9 interestaduais. Já a cobrança pelo uso dos recursos hídricos entrou em funcionamento na bacia do rio São Francisco, integrando com as bacias do Paraíba do Sul e dos rios Piracicaba, Capivari e Jundiaí (PCJ), o conjunto de bacias interestaduais com cobrança implementada.

Sobre a outorga de direito de uso de recursos hídricos, entre 2009 e 2010 houve um aumento de 8% na vazão total outorgada no País, que chegou a 5.825m³/s, em virtude do avanço da implementação do instrumento pelos estados, do aumento da demanda por água e também devido ao aumento da base de dados considerada neste Informe 2011, quando comparada com a dos relatórios passados.

Nota-se também uma tendência do fortalecimento das políticas estaduais e nacional de recursos hídricos em bacias onde há maior comprometimento quali-quantitativo.
(Ascom da ANA)

ABC e INMET fecham parceria com Organização Meteorológica Mundial (Ascom do INMET)

Firmado acordo de cooperação internacional para meteorologia

JC e-mail 4300, de 14 de Julho de 2011

O ministro Marco Farani,diretor da Agência Brasileira de Cooperação (ABC), esteve na sede do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET), em Brasília, no início do mês, para assinar os termos do Programa Executivo de implementação de um Projeto de Cooperação Técnica com a Organização Meteorológica Mundial (OMM), no valor aproximado de 11 milhões de dólares. O projeto tem a finalidade de promover a consolidação das atividades do INMET relacionadas à previsão numérica de tempo e ao monitoramento e previsão de eventos severos. Será desenvolvido pela OMM, em conjunto com a ABC, e executado pelo INMET, no período de cinco anos.

Segundo o diretor do INMET, Antonio Divino Moura, o novo projeto toma como base e dá seguimento aos excelentes resultados alcançados por meio de um Projeto de Cooperação Técnica anterior (2002-2007) que possibilitou ao Brasil a implantação de uma moderna rede de estações meteorológicas de superfície, com economia de cerca de R$ 40 milhões ao Brasil.

Marco Farani considera que é obrigação da Agência Brasileira de Cooperação apoiar as instituições brasileiras que querem e precisam da cooperação para poder evoluir, adquirir mais conhecimentos e tecnologia. “Esse projeto que nós assinamos com o INMET e com a OMM vai permitir tudo isso. Por outro lado, nós nos preocupamos em levar um pouco do lado brasileiro para o exterior, compartilhar com outros países nossas boas práticas. Nós queremos estimular uma atuação maior do INMET no exterior, de forma a levar boas práticas e tecnologias do Brasil a países em desenvolvimento e agir de forma solidária com eles. Então, nós temos essas duas vias: a via de apoiar a captação de tecnologia, de conhecimento para o Brasil, pela cooperação; e de apoiar o compartilhamento e a prestação de apoio e de ajuda aos países, a partir do conhecimento acumulado no Brasil”, disse Marco Farani.

Em 7 de junho de 2011, aproveitando sua participação no 16º Congresso Meteorológico Mundial, realizado em Genebra, Suíça, Divino Moura obteve a assinatura do Secretário Executivo da OMM, Michel Jarraud, nos termos do Programa Executivo de implementação do Projeto de Cooperação Técnica com aquela Organização.
(Ascom do INMET)

Ninguna consultora pudo pronosticar la diferencia entre Macri y Filmus (Clarin)

[Eleições municipais em Buenos Aires]
11/07/11
Las encuestadoras oficialistas erraron por 13 puntos la brecha entre los dos primeros

Por MARTÍN BRAVO

Dos consultoras difundieron enc uestas en la semana previa a estas elecciones en la Ciudad con una diferencia de prácticamente 15 puntos en la intención de voto entre Mauricio Macri y Daniel Filmus.

El resto indicaba una brecha menor, y más corta cuanto más cercano al kirchnerismo era el encargado del relevamiento.

Al cierre de esta edición, los datos oficiales marcaban que el actual jefe de Gobierno cosechaba 803.486 votos (un 47,06%) y el senador kirchnerista 475.364 (un 27,84%). Con el 96,31% de las mesas escrutadas, la diferencia a favor de Macri daba casi 19,3%. Management & Fit difundió sus últimos números el 4 de julio, con 42,2% para Macri y 27,4% para Filmus, es decir 14,8% de distancia. La misma brecha proyectó la encuesta de Poliarquía, encargada por el diario La Nación y publicada el viernes: 45,3% a 30,5%.

Aresco, una encuestadora de consulta habitual del Gobierno nacional, difundió 48 horas antes de la elección -no publicada por la veda- una intención de voto del 43,8% para Macri sobre el 34,3% para Filmus, es decir una ventaja de 9,5%. Ya en el boca de urna dio una distancia bastante mayor: 44% a 31%, aunque también por debajo de la ventaja final. Con el resultado puesto, en ningún caso quedó cerca. OPSM difundió el jueves sus números, a los que accedió este diario, con 38% para Macri y 27,8% para Filmus. Una diferencia del 10,2%, apenas menor a su boca de urna: 44% a 33,7%. Esta consultora se presenta como independiente, aunque el búnker kirchnerista le presta mucha atención.

Rouvier & Asociados, que en esta campaña trabajó para Filmus, daba una diferencia de 6,4 puntos una semana antes de la elección (36,2% a 29,8%) y de 7,4 (42,6% a 35,2%) el último jueves. Analogías, que presentó su trabajo como independiente, asignó ocho días atrás una intención de voto a Macri de 38,2% y a Filmus de 29,7%, una brecha de 8,5%. En sus últimas mediciones, no publicadas por Clarín porque ya regía la veda electoral, la diferencia crecía 1,5 puntos: 42% a 32%.

CEOP, la encuestadora que en 2009 anunció un triunfo de Néstor Kirchner por 8 puntos en la provincia (perdió por 3%) atribuía 36,6% a Macri y 30,5% a Filmus, una distancia de 6,1% . Esta consultora, que también mide habitualmente para el Gobierno nacional, dio con amplia ventaja a Rosana Bertone en el balotaje de Tierra del Fuego, en el que Fabiana Ríos consiguió su reelección.

Fernando Solanas llevaba el 12,82% de los votos, según los datos oficiales al cierre de esta edición, un porcentaje superior al que medía en la mayoría de las encuestas, entre ellas Aresco (8,6%), OPSM (8,9%) y Rouvier & Asociados (10%). Pero peor quedó con el resultado puesto el sondeo encargado por su espacio, Proyecto Sur, a la consultora Panorama: difundió el jueves que el cineasta tenía una inteción de voto del 24,5%, por encima de Filmus, y también lo daba ganador sobre Macri en una eventual segunda vuelta.

Tampoco anticipó el holgado triunfo del actual jefe de Gobierno la encuesta de Nueva Comunicación, encargada por Jorge Telerman: su última medición, el 2 de julio, le asignó a Macri una intención de voto del 39,1% sobre el 31,8% para Filmus, una ventaja de 7,3%. A Telerman le daba el 6,9%, lo que le hubiera permitido asegurarse su banca como legislador. Al cierre de esta edici ón tenía 1,76%.

The Impact of Candidates’ Statements About Climate Change On Electoral Success (Science Daily)

ScienceDaily (July 5, 2011) — Candidates gain votes by taking a “green” position on climate change — endorsing the existence of warming, human causation, and the need for taking action to address it, according to a new study of U.S. adults.

Among citizens who are Democrats and Independents, a hypothetical U.S. Senate candidate gained votes by making a green statement on climate change and lost votes by making a not-green statement, compared to making no statement on climate. Among citizens who are Republicans, the candidate’s vote share was unaffected by taking a green position or a not-green position, compared to being silent on climate.

These results suggest that by taking a green position on climate, candidates of either party can gain the votes of Democrats and Independents while not alienating Republicans.

These results are based on experiments embedded in telephone surveys of a representative national sample of American adults conducted in November 2010 and in telephone surveys of representative samples of adult residents of three states (Florida, Maine, and Massachusetts) in July 2010.

The report by Jon A. Krosnick, Bo MacInnis, and Ana Villar is entitled, “The Impact of Candidates’ Statements about Climate Change on Electoral Success in 2010: Experimental Evidences.”

AP Enterprise: Indian tribes welcome much-maligned FEMA homes that were rejected after Katrina (Washington Post)

By Associated Press, Updated: Wednesday, July 6, 8:07 AM

LITTLE AXE, Okla. — Wanda Tiger and her husband needed a new home after a long-term house-sitting arrangement came to an end. But for members of their American Indian tribe in rural Oklahoma, affordable housing options were few.

Then tribal leaders learned of an impossibly attractive offer: Mobile homes that had never been occupied were available from the government almost for free. They had stood vacant for years after being rejected as temporary housing following Hurricane Katrina.

(Sue Ogrocki / Associated Press) – Charles Tiger is pictured during an interview in his FEMA trailer home in Little Axe, Okla., Thursday, June 16, 2011. Nearly six years after the hurricane, the mobile homes that became a symbol of the government’s failed response are finally being put to good use. FEMA has quietly given many of them away to American Indian tribes that are in desperate need of affordable housing.

To Tiger and members of other tribes, the homes seemed perfect, even luxurious.

“When you ain’t got nothing, you’re happy with whatever you can get,” said Tiger, a member of the Absentee Shawnee tribe who now lives in a three-bedroom home courtesy of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. “They call them temporary homes, but hey, sometimes it’s your permanent home, and we’re satisfied with it.”

Nearly six years after the hurricane, the mobile homes that became a symbol of the government’s failed response are finally being put to good use. FEMA has quietly given many of them away to American Indian tribes that are in desperate need of affordable housing.

In the aftermath of the 2005 hurricane, FEMA bought thousands of temporary homes for $20,000 to $45,000 each — both mobile homes and travel trailers.

The mobile homes proved impractical in areas where power and water service had been destroyed. And some people living in travel trailers started to fall sick because the RVs had high levels of formaldehyde, a cancer-causing chemical common in building materials.

Since then, it seemed doubtful that many of the mobile homes would ever be used. But on American Indian reservations, the offer of free housing has been welcomed, particularly among families who live in conditions so crowded that it’s not uncommon for a single mobile home to be shared by more than a dozen relatives.

Tribes have taken almost 2,000 of the government homes and requested more.

Before and during Katrina, critics complained that the homes would not protect residents from future storms. Some also worried the shelters would turn into permanent housing, potentially creating neighborhoods of dilapidated mobile homes.

Then the formaldehyde concerns arose, leading the government to trash most of the travel trailers or sell them to people who signed papers promising not to live in them.

The mobile homes that remained were parked at FEMA storage centers all over the country, costing the agency millions each year to maintain. At one point, more than 19,000 were parked at the Hope, Ark., airport. The fleet was so large that two of the facility’s three runways were closed for more than five years.

Although the mobile homes were never suspected of making anyone sick, most stayed empty, even after new disasters struck.

In Cordova, Ala., which was among the many places crippled by this spring’s historic tornado season, local leaders refused to let the mobile homes into town, despite pleas from some residents who wanted the shelters.

“I don’t feel guilty,” Mayor Jack Scott said, explaining that he did not want the shelters to become permanent. “I can look anyone in the eye.”

FEMA slowly auctioned off most of the homes and found uses for others, including giving some to the tribes. It has also used a limited number of homes in areas recently struck by twisters, including Joplin, Mo., and other parts of Alabama.

For the last several years, the agency “has been working to reduce the number of units in our inventory, while maintaining the capability to purchase units through pre-positioned contracts,” FEMA said in a statement.

Susan Popkin, a housing expert at the Washington-based Urban Institute, questioned the purchase of the shelters, suggesting that it might have been smarter to give storm victims vouchers to rent apartments than to offer them a trailer.

“It was a big stretch for them to take that on after Katrina,” Popkin said. “Their strength is in dealing with people for the first few weeks after the emergency.”

But tribal leaders were thrilled to take the homes.

After 1,300 mobile homes were distributed to tribes during 2008 and 2009, federal officials asked early this year if they wanted more, said Brian Sullivan, a spokesman for the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Ninety-five tribes responded with requests for 3,000 homes — five times as many as were available.

About 550 homes were distributed this spring. Tribal governments paid only to transport them.

John Ballard, chief of the Ottawa Tribe in far northeastern Oklahoma, said his tribe spent an average of $3,000 to acquire each home. The tribe has received 39 units for the elderly and first-time homebuyers, he said.

“Three thousand dollars is not too much to pay for a house,” Ballard said. “These trailers are a great deal for our tribe … I would take 100 more. I’ve had people send me pictures and thank-you cards and want to give me their first-born over this stuff. This has made a great impression on peoples’ lives.”

Similar stories are told by George Blanchard, governor of the Absentee Shawnee Tribe, and Paula Pechonick, chief of the Delaware Tribe of Oklahoma. Blanchard said his only gripe is that there aren’t enough homes to meet the demand.

Tiger and her husband, who live in Little Axe, a rural community southeast of Oklahoma City, were surprised that the homes had been vacant for so long.

“We saw it on the news, and we thought so many people like ourselves could use them, but they were just sitting there,” Tiger said. “Why did it take someone so long to decide, ‘Hey, these could be used’? There are a lot of homeless people in this country.”

The retired couple had been house-sitting for a relative for years when the family member told them they needed to leave in a few weeks.

After being approved for one of the government homes, tribal workers cleared some trees from a piece of land owned by the Tigers. Their new place even had an air conditioner, a luxury on the reservation.

The paperwork that came with the home in 2009 included a warning about formaldehyde and possible symptoms, but the Tigers have never experienced any problems.

Compared to some homes on reservations, FEMA’s homes are like “castles,” said Cheryl Causley, chairwoman of the National American Indian Housing Council.

“It shows you the vast discrepancy and the uneven treatment among the citizens of the United States,” Causley said. “Our people would go miles to receive those units. If there’s any more of them, we would love them. Our need is that extreme.”

___

Merchant reported from Little Rock, Ark.

Copyright 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Paul Virilio: “Minha língua estrangeira é a velocidade, é a aceleração do real” (L.M. DIPLOMATIQUE Brasil)

03 de Junho de 2011

ENTREVISTA

“Minha língua estrangeira é a velocidade, é a aceleração do real”

por Guilherme Soares dos Santos

Uma das maiores personalidades da França atualmente, o filósofo e urbanista Paul Virilio ocupa um lugar de destaque na cena intelectual. Escritor prolífico, no seu currículo sucedem-se livros, exposições e artigos tais como Velocidade e política, Guerra e cinema, O espaço crítico, Máquina de visão e, recentemente, O grande acelerador [sem tradução ainda para o português] em que ele desenvolve uma cultura crítica, alguns dizem “catastrofista”, sobre as técnicas modernas, bem como seus efeitos de aceleração sobre nossos comportamentos e nossa percepção do mundo, no momento em que a economia mundial depende cada vez mais do investimento na tecnologia.

Paul Virilio recebe o filósofo brasileiro Guilherme Soares dos Santos em Paris, e fala com exclusividade ao Le Monde Diplomatique Brasil sobre suas teses, que tratam da corrida, da lógica da velocidade, ele que é visto por muitos como um reacionário ou um visionário, fala ytambém de sua biografia.

VIRILIO: Há uma coisa fundamental que explicará, talvez, o aspecto “catastrofista” do qual me acusam. Eu sou uma criança da guerra, um war baby, e é um elemento que não foi suficientemente compreendido, porque tentou-se fazer esquecer a guerra. Há dois momentos importantes na Segunda Guerra Mundial (eu a vivi, eu tinha 10 anos, eu nasci em 1932). Houve primeiramente a Guerra Relâmpago, a Blitzkrieg. Censurou-se esse aspecto, e alguns historiadores negam a blitz, isto é, o fato de que a velocidade esteve na base da grande ruína, primeiro da Polônia, e em seguida da França. E então essa Blitzkrieg se esgotou nos países do leste e na União Soviética, porque lá havia a profundidade de campo que permitia amortecer. Eu sou, portanto, uma criança da Blitzkrieg, eu diria mesmo que eu sou talvez o único, o único que desde então jamais cessou de ser marcado pelo poder da velocidade. Não é somente o poder dos transportes, os carros de assalto contra a cavalaria polonesa que desembainhava o sabre contra os panzers… Há também a guerra das ondas da qual eu sou o filho: “Pom, pom, pom, pom”… a rádio de Londres que eu escutava no escuro com o meu pai. Há dois momentos capitais: a Blitzkrieg e a deportação que vai, aliás, junto com o mesmo movimento de invasão. Se a guerra de 1914 foi uma guerra de posição em que os exércitos se exterminaram no mesmo lugar durante anos, com a deportação, conduziu-se à Shoah no curso da Segunda Guerra Mundial.

DIPLOMATIQUE: O senhor é muito sensibilizado pelas tragédias que ocorrem em nossa época. O senhor quis inclusive que fosse criado um “Museu dos Acidentes”, após a exposição feita sobre esse tema na Fundação Cartier para a Arte Contemporânea. O senhor já avançou essa ideia, mas por enquanto sem sucesso junto às instituições, e agora o senhor propõe a criação de uma “Universidade do Desastre”. De que se trata exatamente? Não se poderia pensar que a guerra terá sido, para o senhor, uma universidade do desastre?

VIRILIO: Com efeito. Quando eu falo de “Universidade do Desastre” não é de modo algum o desastre da universidade, é o contrário: eu quero dizer que “o pior provoca o melhor”. A universidade europeia apareceu em Bolonha e alhures aproximadamente em 1100, 1200, após o “grande medo” do ano 1000, em oposição à grande barbárie. E ela foi, essa universidade, um coletivo judeo-cristão, greco-latino e árabe. Alguns negam o grande medo do primeiro milênio, como alguns negam, hoje, a blitz. Há aí alguma coisa que, no meu entendimento, faz parte do segredo da velocidade. Se “o tempo é dinheiro”, a velocidade é poder. Eu lembro que para os banqueiros, para que haja mais-valia, é preciso que haja a velocidade de troca. A questão da velocidade é uma questão mascarada; não mascarada por um complô, mas mascarada por sua simplicidade. Riqueza e velocidade estão vinculadas. É conhecido o vínculo da riqueza e do poder como da lei do mais forte. Mas a lei do mais forte é a lei do mais rápido. A questão da “dromologia” é a questão da velocidade que, hoje, mudou de natureza. Na origem, a velocidade é o tesouro dos faraós; é a tesaurização, quer dizer, a acumulação e, então, muito rapidamente, tornar-se-á especulação. E aí o movimento de acumulação vai passar na aceleração. Os dois estão vinculados. Acumulação do tesouro que tornar-se-á tesouro público, em seguida especulação, e hoje financeirização com os sistemas de cotação automática em alta frequência que fazem explodir a bolsa de valores. Veja, estamos diante de algo extraordinário, é que nós não sabemos o que é a velocidade em nossos dias. As pessoas me dizem que é preciso uma economia política da velocidade, e, de fato, é preciso uma, mas é preciso primeiro uma dromologia, ou seja, revelar na vida política, no sentido amplo do poder, a natureza da velocidade em nosso tempo. Essa velocidade mudou de natureza. Essencialmente ela foi a revolução dos transportes. Até o século XX, até a blitz, vimos que a revolução das riquezas é uma revolução dos transportes: o cavalo, o navio, o trem, o avião, os sinais mecânicos.

DIPLOMATIQUE: No final do século XX, passa-se não mais à revolução dos transportes, mas à das transmissões instantâneas.

VIRILIO: Durante a guerra, ainda garotinho, eu participei da Resistência com os meus pais graças à guerra das ondas que já era uma guerra eletromagnética. Uma guerra da velocidade das ondas. Marconi e sua invenção era, também, uma revolução da velocidade. Começava-se a pôr em obra a velocidade das ondas eletromagnéticas, isto é, das ondas da velocidade da luz. E, claro, com a televisão, os computadores e a Internet, nós entramos numa fase que hoje atinge o seu limite; a velocidade da luz em que o tempo humano, o tempo da negociação, da especulação, em que a inteligência do homem, do especulador, dos cotadores é ultrapassada pelos automatismos. Aliás, quando a bolsa quebrou em 6 de maio do ano passado em Wall Street, em alguns milésimos de segundos houve 23.000 operações, o sistema entrou em pane e bilhões foram perdidos em dez minutos.

DIPLOMATIQUE: O que preocupa o senhor são os limites do tempo humano?

VIRILIO: Sim, é preciso trabalhar sobre a natureza do poder da velocidade atualmente, porque a velocidade da luz é um absoluto e é o limite do tempo humano. Nós estamos no “tempo-máquina”; o tempo humano é sacrificado como os escravos eram sacrificados no culto solar de antigamente. Eu o digo, nós estamos num novo Iluminismo em que a velocidade da luz é um culto. É um poder absoluto que se esconde atrás do progresso, e é por isso que eu afirmo que a velocidade é a propaganda do progresso. Eu não tenho nada contra o progresso. Quando eu digo que é preciso “ir mais devagar”, alguns zombam de mim. Pensam que eu condeno a revolução dos transportes, dos trens, dos carros, dos aviões, que eu sou contra os computadores e contra a Internet. Não é nesse nível que as coisas estão em jogo…

DIPLOMATIQUE: O que o senhor combate é a aceleração do real que põe em questão a percepção das aparências sensíveis e daquilo que a fenomenologia chama de “ser-no-mundo”?

VIRILLIO: Sim, o que a revolução dos transportes era para a aceleração da história e os movimentos migratórios, a revolução das transmissões instantâneas o é para a aceleração da realidade percebida. É um acontecimento alucinante, estupeficante. A velocidade é uma ebriedade. Uma embriaguez que pode ser “scópica” ou sonora – daí, aliás, a passagem do muro do som. Com as telecomunicações, utiliza-se a força de impacto da aceleração para fazer passar coisas que não estão na realidade pública, ou seja, no espaço real público, mas na realidade privada, ou antes transmitidas em tempo real por sociedades privadas. A tal ponto que a questão da imaginação, e aquela, filosófica, do “ser-no-mundo”, do aqui e do agora, tornam-se centrais. Nós estamos, assim, em plena crise da ciência, do que eu chamo de “acidente dos conhecimentos”, “acidente das substâncias” e “acidente das distâncias”. Essa questão da velocidade, desde Einstein, está no cerne da relatividade outrora especial, e hoje generalizada, que está em vias de se chocar contra um muro, o que eu chamo de “muro do tempo”. O que se passou em Wall Street me interessa muito porque as pessoas de Wall Street se chocaram contra o muro do tempo e o muro do dinheiro. É um fenômeno político maior no momento em que os algoritmos e os programas de computador dominam a vida econômica, e eu pretendo que a “relatividade especial” deveria ser um problema encarado pelo Estado. Se o século XX foi o século da conquista do ar e do espaço, eu penso que o século XXI deveria se questionar não somente sobre as nanotecnologias, mas, também, sobre as nanocronologias, isto é, sobre o tempo infinitesimal, sobre a conquista do “infinitamente pequeno do tempo”.

DIPLOMATIQUE: Parece-me que, nos textos do senhor, o estilo quer sempre ecoar o assunto estudado, e quando senhor pensa a velocidade, é a própria escrita que deve ir rápido.

VIRILIO: Absolutamente. E nesse sentido, como o mostra Proust, todo verdadeiro escritor escreve “numa espécie de língua estrangeira”. Minha língua estrangeira é a velocidade, é a aceleração do real. No que respeita à velocidade da minha escrita, trata-se da herança dos futuristas, e eu sinto a dromologia como uma musicologia. O problema não é nem de acelerar nem de desacelerar, mas de seguir uma linha melódica.

DIPLOMATIQUE: Há quem diga que o senhor pratica uma “escrita rapsódica”.

VIRILIO: Trata-se do ritmo. As sociedades antigas eram sociedades ritmológicas. Havia o calendário, a liturgia, as festas que estruturavam a linha melódica de tal ou qual sociedade. Os ritmos são muito importantes, você sabe, pois trata-se do sopro. Quando Bergson e Einstein se encontraram, eles não se compreenderam a esse respeito. O primeiro falava de “duração”, do vivo; o segundo, do vazio e do veloz. Saiba, no entanto, que será necessário conciliá-los, caso contrário o futuro do século XXI será um caos global pior que o nazismo ou o comunismo, que não tem nada a ver com a anarquia. Não, um caos global pior que tudo!

DIPLOMATIQUE: É por isso que o pensamento do senhor torna-se mais e mais dramático e religioso nos últimos tempos?

VIRILIO: Eu sou um católico que se converteu já adulto, isso é importante. Meu pai era comunista, e minha mãe, católica. Acontece que eu conheci o abade Pierre e padres operários. Mas eu permaneço sozinho sobre a minha senda.

DIPLOMATIQUE: Alguns criticam o senhor por descrever situações que seriam exagerações fantasistas, quando o senhor descreve este temor da solidão gerado pelas telecomunicações, notadamente pela Internet ou o celular. Não estaria o senhor realizando, talvez, uma especulação sobre “mundos possíveis”, seguindo uma espécie de método “transcendental” de investigação?

VIRILIO: Eu quero reunir o que foi separado, quero dizer, a filosofia e a física. Trata-se fundamentalmente de uma reinvenção filosófica para fazer frente a esta matematização do mundo, esta rapidez que ultrapassa a consciência. Eu me sinto no limiar de uma filosofia sem igual. Tal como Heráclito ou Parmênides, estamos aqui na origem – daí a Universidade do Desastre. Todo o trabalho desta seria um questionamento sobre o “desastre do êxito”. O que se acaba de descrever é o sucesso da tecnociência. Ora, é imperativo reconciliar e lançar a “filociência”. O que está aí em jogo é a vida ou a morte da humanidade. Se o homem não pode mais falar e se ele transfere o poder de enunciação a aparelhos, encontramo-nos, pois, diante de uma tirania sem igual. Físicos que são meus amigos estão conscientes disso, do que se perfila, um “acidente dos conhecimentos”. Isso nos conduz à árvore da vida que só tem referência na origem do Gênese, ou seja, o mito da vida… E aí eu o digo enquanto cristão e enquanto escritor: o acidente dos conhecimentos é o pecado original.

DIPLOMATIQUE: O que significa em nossa época “ser sábio”, quando nós somos forçados a uma especialização crescente e incessante, assim como à busca de uma “resposta automatizada” nos motores de pesquisa e nos bancos de dados que ultrapassam de longe o que a memória individual pode abarcar em uma vida? Como nós podemos cultivar nossa lucidez nesta maré enlouquecedora de informações?

VIRILIO: No que me toca mais diretamente, eu sou um urbanista, quer dizer que eu trabalho sobre o habitat. E o próprio de um urbanista é trabalhar sobre o habitar, o “ser-aqui”. O “ser-aqui-junto”. É isso o habitat: é o lugar de nossos hábitos. Os dois mantêm um vínculo muito estreito, isto é, a possibilidade de durar; o hábito é o que se reproduz. É o “ser-junto”. Não simplesmente o “ser-junto” do socius, mas o “ser-junto” da natureza no habitat comum com a nossa irmã, a chuva, e o nosso irmão, o sol, como diriam os franciscanos… É isso a arquitetura! É abrigar o vivente.

DIPLOMATIQUE: Perante o excesso contemporâneo de informações, e à velocidade sempre acelerada do desenrolar dos acontecimentos se desdobrando mundialmente nas imagens de nossas telas, não estamos testemunhando uma verdadeira desconstrução da cultura geral?

VIRILIO: Você utilizou na sua pergunta a palavra “desconstrução”. Eu creio que Derrida tinha razão para o fim do século XX. O início do século XX é a destruição pura e simplesmente através da ruína das cidades, através da ruína dos corpos. É a destruição; não se pode dizer que Auschiwtz ou Hiroshima sejam “desconstruções”… São puras destruições. Ora, eu creio – e eu o digo e o escrevo – que o século XXI será a desorientação, quer dizer, a perda de todas as referências – se a humanidade continuar desse jeito, e ela não continuará. Portanto, eu não creio de maneira alguma no fim do mundo. Mas o que eu quero dizer é a desorientação: não sabemos mais onde estamos nem no espaço nem no tempo. E aí, o geômetra que eu sou, o arquiteto que eu sou, sabe o que é a orientação. A arquitetura é primeira; ela é composição; ela é habitat comum entre os seres e as coisas. Pois ser é “ser-no-mundo”, e é o que eu digo: o problema não é de ser, mas de ser-no-mundo, em outras palavras, de ser-no-corpo-territorial. Isso não tem nada a ver com nacionalismo. Simplesmente não se pode ser sem “ser-no-mundo”. Em nossa época, todavia, o essencial se passa no vazio. Se você olhar hoje em dia, o poder não é mais geopolítico, religado ao solo, ele é aeropolítico: as ondas, os aviões e os foguetes traçam o porvir. A história se transferiu da terra ao céu, com toda a dimensão mística de adoração do cosmos, do grande vazio sideral, das ondas que se propagam etc. que isso supõe. As sociedades históricas eram sociedades geopolíticas, ou seja, inscritas nos lugares. O acontecimento, conforme com que eu digo, o acontecimento “tem lugar”; logo existe uma natureza do lugar que tange ao acontecimento. E essa relação com o “ter lugar” foi ocultada. É uma noção tão banal… Significa, portanto, que eu não posso ser sem ter lugar. Não é um problema de identidade – não, situado, orientado, in situ, hic et nunc, aqui e agora.

DIPLOMATIQUE: Uma última pergunta. O senhor pensa que o sistema econômico já está sendo transtornado pela ecologia?

VIRILIO: Doravante a economia e a ecologia devem fundir-se porque o mundo é finito, porque o mundo é demasiado pequeno para o progresso. Nós esgotamos a matéria do mundo, nós poluímos sua substância e nós poluímos suas distâncias. E nós estamos perante à fusão próxima da ecologia e da economia. Vê-se bem as dificuldades com o encontro do Grupo de Informação sobre o Clima em Copenhague. Vê-se bem a dificuldade que há em plena crise econômica, nos Estados Unidos e no mundo, a tomar medidas ecológicas. Portanto, inevitavelmente, o fato de que a Terra é muito pequena para a velocidade, para a velocidade do progresso, exige a fusão dos dois. Daí a importância de uma Universidade do Desastre e a reinvenção de um pensamento, de um intelectual coletivo, como o foi a universidade das origens. É indispensável. Até o momento ela não existe; nós estamos na origem de um novo mundo. E eu gostaria de ser mais jovem para poder viver esse Novo Mundo que vai nascer na dor do confronto. Mas que é indispensável. Nenhum homem, seja qual for a sua cor política, não está à altura desse acontecimento que se assemelha à Renascença italiana… E ao mesmo tempo é tão excitante! É maravilhoso! Como já dizia Karl Krauss: “que grande época”!

Guilherme Soares dos Santos – Filósofo, mestre em filosofia política e ética pela Universidade Paris Sorbonne e, atualmente, é doutorando em filosofia contemporânea pela Universidade Paris 8, onde estuda o pensamento de Gilles Deleuze.

Foto e tradução: Guilherme Soares dos Santos

Palavras chave: Paul Virilio, velocidade, transformação, corrida, cultura, teoria

Climate of Denial: Can science and the truth withstand the merchants of poison? (Rolling Stone)

By AL GORE
JUNE 22, 2011 7:45 AM ET

Illustration by Matt Mahurin

The first time I remember hearing the question “is it real?” was when I went as a young boy to see a traveling show put on by “professional wrestlers” one summer evening in the gym of the Forks River Elementary School in Elmwood, Tennessee.

The evidence that it was real was palpable: “They’re really hurting each other! That’s real blood! Look a’there! They can’t fake that!” On the other hand, there was clearly a script (or in today’s language, a “narrative”), with good guys to cheer and bad guys to boo.

But the most unusual and in some ways most interesting character in these dramas was the referee: Whenever the bad guy committed a gross and obvious violation of the “rules” — such as they were — like using a metal folding chair to smack the good guy in the head, the referee always seemed to be preoccupied with one of the cornermen, or looking the other way. Yet whenever the good guy — after absorbing more abuse and unfairness than any reasonable person could tolerate — committed the slightest infraction, the referee was all over him. The answer to the question “Is it real?” seemed connected to the question of whether the referee was somehow confused about his role: Was he too an entertainer?

Scorched Earth: How Climate Change Is Spreading Drought Throughout the Globe

That is pretty much the role now being played by most of the news media in refereeing the current wrestling match over whether global warming is “real,” and whether it has any connection to the constant dumping of 90 million tons of heat-trapping emissions into the Earth’s thin shell of atmosphere every 24 hours.

Admittedly, the contest over global warming is a challenge for the referee because it’s a tag-team match, a real free-for-all. In one corner of the ring are Science and Reason. In the other corner: Poisonous Polluters and Right-wing Ideologues.

The referee — in this analogy, the news media — seems confused about whether he is in the news business or the entertainment business. Is he responsible for ensuring a fair match? Or is he part of the show, selling tickets and building the audience? The referee certainly seems distracted: by Donald Trump, Charlie Sheen, the latest reality show — the list of serial obsessions is too long to enumerate here.

But whatever the cause, the referee appears not to notice that the Polluters and Ideologues are trampling all over the “rules” of democratic discourse. They are financing pseudoscientists whose job is to manufacture doubt about what is true and what is false; buying elected officials wholesale with bribes that the politicians themselves have made “legal” and can now be made in secret; spending hundreds of millions of dollars each year on misleading advertisements in the mass media; hiring four anti-climate lobbyists for every member of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. (Question: Would Michael Jordan have been a star if he was covered by four defensive players every step he took on the basketball court?)

This script, of course, is not entirely new: A half-century ago, when Science and Reason established the linkage between cigarettes and lung diseases, the tobacco industry hired actors, dressed them up as doctors, and paid them to look into television cameras and tell people that the linkage revealed in the Surgeon General’s Report was not real at all. The show went on for decades, with more Americans killed each year by cigarettes than all of the U.S. soldiers killed in all of World War II.

This time, the scientific consensus is even stronger. It has been endorsed by every National Academy of science of every major country on the planet, every major professional scientific society related to the study of global warming and 98 percent of climate scientists throughout the world. In the latest and most authoritative study by 3,000 of the very best scientific experts in the world, the evidence was judged “unequivocal.”

But wait! The good guys transgressed the rules of decorum, as evidenced in their private e-mails that were stolen and put on the Internet. The referee is all over it: Penalty! Go to your corner! And in their 3,000-page report, the scientists made some mistakes! Another penalty!

And if more of the audience is left confused about whether the climate crisis is real? Well, the show must go on. After all, it’s entertainment. There are tickets to be sold, eyeballs to glue to the screen.

Part of the script for this show was leaked to The New York Times as early as 1991. In an internal document, a consortium of the largest global-warming polluters spelled out their principal strategy: “Reposition global warming as theory, rather than fact.” Ever since, they have been sowing doubt even more effectively than the tobacco companies before them.

To sell their false narrative, the Polluters and Ideologues have found it essential to undermine the public’s respect for Science and Reason by attacking the integrity of the climate scientists. That is why the scientists are regularly accused of falsifying evidence and exaggerating its implications in a greedy effort to win more research grants, or secretly pursuing a hidden political agenda to expand the power of government. Such slanderous insults are deeply ironic: extremist ideologues — many financed or employed by carbon polluters — accusing scientists of being greedy extremist ideologues.

After World War II, a philosopher studying the impact of organized propaganda on the quality of democratic debate wrote, “The conversion of all questions of truth into questions of power has attacked the very heart of the distinction between true and false.”

 

Is the climate crisis real? Yes, of course it is. Pause for a moment to consider these events of just the past 12 months:

• Heat. According to NASA, 2010 was tied with 2005 as the hottest year measured since instruments were first used systematically in the 1880s. Nineteen countries set all-time high temperature records. One city in Pakistan, Mohenjo-Daro, reached 128.3 degrees Fahrenheit, the hottest temperature ever measured in an Asian city. Nine of the 10 hottest years in history have occurred in the last 13 years. The past decade was the hottest ever measured, even though half of that decade represented a “solar minimum” — the low ebb in the natural cycle of solar energy emanating from the sun.

• Floods. Megafloods displaced 20 million people in Pakistan, further destabilizing a nuclear-armed country; inundated an area of Australia larger than Germany and France combined; flooded 28 of the 32 districts that make up Colombia, where it has rained almost continuously for the past year; caused a “thousand-year” flood in my home city of Nashville; and led to all-time record flood levels in the Mississippi River Valley. Many places around the world are now experiencing larger and more frequent extreme downpours and snowstorms; last year’s “Snowmaggedon” in the northeastern United States is part of the same pattern, notwithstanding the guffaws of deniers.

• Drought. Historic drought and fires in Russia killed an estimated 56,000 people and caused wheat and other food crops in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan to be removed from the global market, contributing to a record spike in food prices. “Practically everything is burning,” Russian president Dmitry Medvedev declared. “What’s happening with the planet’s climate right now needs to be a wake-up call to all of us.” The drought level in much of Texas has been raised from “extreme” to “exceptional,” the highest category. This spring the majority of the counties in Texas were on fire, and Gov. Rick Perry requested a major disaster declaration for all but two of the state’s 254 counties. Arizona is now fighting the largest fire in its history. Since 1970, the fire season throughout the American West has increased by 78 days. Extreme droughts in central China and northern France are currently drying up reservoirs and killing crops.

• Melting Ice. An enormous mass of ice, four times larger than the island of Manhattan, broke off from northern Greenland last year and slipped into the sea. The acceleration of ice loss in both Greenland and Antarctica has caused another upward revision of global sea-level rise and the numbers of refugees expected from low-lying coastal areas. The Arctic ice cap, which reached a record low volume last year, has lost as much as 40 percent of its area during summer in just 30 years.

These extreme events are happening in real time. It is not uncommon for the nightly newscast to resemble a nature hike through the Book of Revelation. Yet most of the news media completely ignore how such events are connected to the climate crisis, or dismiss the connection as controversial; after all, there are scientists on one side of the debate and deniers on the other. A Fox News executive, in an internal e-mail to the network’s reporters and editors that later became public, questioned the “veracity of climate change data” and ordered the journalists to “refrain from asserting that the planet has warmed (or cooled) in any given period without IMMEDIATELY pointing out that such theories are based upon data that critics have called into question.”

But in the “real” world, the record droughts, fires, floods and mudslides continue to increase in severity and frequency. Leading climate scientists like Jim Hansen and Kevin Trenberth now say that events like these would almost certainly not be occurring without the influence of man-made global warming. And that’s a shift in the way they frame these impacts. Scientists used to caution that we were increasing the probability of such extreme events by “loading the dice” — pumping more carbon into the atmosphere. Now the scientists go much further, warning that we are “painting more dots on the dice.”  We are not only more likely to roll 12s; we are now rolling 13s and 14s. In other words, the biggest storms are not only becoming more frequent, they are getting bigger, stronger and more destructive.

“The only plausible explanation for the rise in weather-related catastrophes is climate change,” Munich Re, one of the two largest reinsurance companies in the world, recently stated. “The view that weather extremes are more frequent and intense due to global warming coincides with the current state of scientific knowledge.”

Many of the extreme and destructive events are the result of the rapid increase in the amount of heat energy from the sun that is trapped in the atmosphere, which is radically disrupting the planet’s water cycle. More heat energy evaporates more water into the air, and the warmer air holds a lot more moisture. This has huge consequences that we now see all around the world.

When a storm unleashes a downpour of rain or snow, the precipitation does not originate just in the part of the sky directly above where it falls. Storms reach out — sometimes as far as 2,000 miles — to suck in water vapor from large areas of the sky, including the skies above oceans, where water vapor has increased by four percent in just the last 30 years. (Scientists often compare this phenomenon to what happens in a bathtub when you open the drain; the water rushing out comes from the whole tub, not just from the part of the tub directly above the drain. And when the tub is filled with more water, more goes down the drain. In the same way, when the warmer sky is filled with a lot more water vapor, there are bigger downpours when a storm cell opens the “drain.”)

In many areas, these bigger downpours also mean longer periods between storms — at the same time that the extra heat in the air is also drying out the soil. That is part of the reason so many areas have been experiencing both record floods and deeper, longer-lasting droughts.

Moreover, the scientists have been warning us for quite some time — in increasingly urgent tones — that things will get much, much worse if we continue the reckless dumping of more and more heat-trapping pollution into the atmosphere. Drought is projected to spread across significant, highly populated areas of the globe throughout this century. Look at what the scientists say is in store for the Mediterranean nations. Should we care about the loss of Spain, France, Italy, the Balkans, Turkey, Tunisia? Look at what they say is in store for Mexico. Should we notice? Should we care?

Maybe it’s just easier, psychologically, to swallow the lie that these scientists who devote their lives to their work are actually greedy deceivers and left-wing extremists — and that we should instead put our faith in the pseudoscientists financed by large carbon polluters whose business plans depend on their continued use of the atmospheric commons as a place to dump their gaseous, heat-trapping waste without limit or constraint, free of charge.

 

The truth is this: What we are doing is functionally insane. If we do not change this pattern, we will condemn our children and all future generations to struggle with ecological curses for several millennia to come. Twenty percent of the global-warming pollution we spew into the sky each day will still be there 20,000 years from now!

We do have another choice. Renewable energy sources are coming into their own. Both solar and wind will soon produce power at costs that are competitive with fossil fuels; indications are that twice as many solar installations were erected worldwide last year as compared to 2009. The reductions in cost and the improvements in efficiency of photovoltaic cells over the past decade appear to be following an exponential curve that resembles a less dramatic but still startling version of what happened with computer chips over the past 50 years.

Enhanced geothermal energy is potentially a nearly limitless source of competitive electricity. Increased energy efficiency is already saving businesses money and reducing emissions significantly. New generations of biomass energy — ones that do not rely on food crops, unlike the mistaken strategy of making ethanol from corn — are extremely promising. Sustainable forestry and agriculture both make economic as well as environmental sense. And all of these options would spread even more rapidly if we stopped subsidizing Big Oil and Coal and put a price on carbon that reflected the true cost of fossil energy — either through the much-maligned cap-and-trade approach, or through a revenue-neutral tax swap.

All over the world, the grassroots movement in favor of changing public policies to confront the climate crisis and build a more prosperous, sustainable future is growing rapidly. But most governments remain paralyzed, unable to take action — even after years of volatile gasoline prices, repeated wars in the Persian Gulf, one energy-related disaster after another, and a seemingly endless stream of unprecedented and lethal weather disasters.

Continuing on our current course would be suicidal for global civilization. But the key question is: How do we drive home that fact in a democratic society when questions of truth have been converted into questions of power? When the distinction between what is true and what is false is being attacked relentlessly, and when the referee in the contest between truth and falsehood has become an entertainer selling tickets to a phony wrestling match?

The “wrestling ring” in this metaphor is the conversation of democracy. It used to be called the “public square.” In ancient Athens, it was the Agora. In the Roman Republic, it was the Forum. In the Egypt of the recent Arab Spring, “Tahrir Square” was both real and metaphorical — encompassing Facebook, Twitter, Al-Jazeera and texting.

In the America of the late-18th century, the conversation that led to our own “Spring” took place in printed words: pamphlets, newsprint, books, the “Republic of Letters.” It represented the fullest flower of the Enlightenment, during which the oligarchic power of the monarchies, the feudal lords and the Medieval Church was overthrown and replaced with a new sovereign: the Rule of Reason.

The public square that gave birth to the new consciousness of the Enlightenment emerged in the dozen generations following the invention of the printing press — “the Gutenberg Galaxy,” the scholar Marshall McLuhan called it — a space in which the conversation of democracy was almost equally accessible to every literate person. Individuals could both find the knowledge that had previously been restricted to elites and contribute their own ideas.

Ideas that found resonance with others rose in prominence much the way Google searches do today, finding an ever larger audience and becoming a source of political power for individuals with neither wealth nor force of arms. Thomas Paine, to take one example, emigrated from England to Philadelphia with no wealth, no family connections and no power other than that which came from his ability to think and write clearly — yet his Common Sense became the Harry Potter of Revolutionary America. The “public interest” mattered, was actively discussed and pursued.

But the “public square” that gave birth to America has been transformed beyond all recognition. The conversation that matters most to the shaping of the “public mind” now takes place on television. Newspapers and magazines are in decline. The Internet, still in its early days, will one day support business models that make true journalism profitable — but up until now, the only successful news websites aggregate content from struggling print publications. Web versions of the newspapers themselves are, with few exceptions, not yet making money. They bring to mind the classic image of Wile E. Coyote running furiously in midair just beyond the edge of the cliff, before plummeting to the desert floor far beneath him.

 

The average American, meanwhile, is watching television an astonishing five hours a day. In the average household, at least one television set is turned on more than eight hours a day. Moreover, approximately 75 percent of those using the Internet frequently watch television at the same time that they are online.

Unlike access to the “public square” of early America, access to television requires large amounts of money. Thomas Paine could walk out of his front door in Philadelphia and find a dozen competing, low-cost print shops within blocks of his home. Today, if he traveled to the nearest TV station, or to the headquarters of nearby Comcast — the dominant television provider in America — and tried to deliver his new ideas to the American people, he would be laughed off the premises. The public square that used to be a commons has been refeudalized, and the gatekeepers charge large rents for the privilege of communicating to the American people over the only medium that really affects their thinking. “Citizens” are now referred to more commonly as “consumers” or “the audience.”

That is why up to 80 percent of the campaign budgets for candidates in both major political parties is devoted to the purchase of 30-second TV ads. Since the rates charged for these commercials increase each year, the candidates are forced to raise more and more money in each two-year campaign cycle.

Of course, the only reliable sources from which such large sums can be raised continuously are business lobbies. Organized labor, a shadow of its former self, struggles to compete, and individuals are limited by law to making small contributions. During the 2008 campaign, there was a bubble of hope that Internet-based fundraising might even the scales, but in the end, Democrats as well as Republicans relied far more on traditional sources of large contributions. Moreover, the recent deregulation of unlimited — and secret — donations by wealthy corporations has made the imbalance even worse.

In the new ecology of political discourse, special-interest contributors of the large sums of money now required for the privilege of addressing voters on a wholesale basis are not squeamish about asking for the quo they expect in return for their quid. Politicians who don’t acquiesce don’t get the money they need to be elected and re-elected. And the impact is doubled when special interests make clear — usually bluntly — that the money they are withholding will go instead to opponents who are more than happy to pledge the desired quo. Politicians have been racing to the bottom for some time, and are presently tunneling to new depths. It is now commonplace for congressmen and senators first elected decades ago — as I was — to comment in private that the whole process has become unbelievably crass, degrading and horribly destructive to the core values of American democracy.

Largely as a result, the concerns of the wealthiest individuals and corporations routinely trump the concerns of average Americans and small businesses. There are a ridiculously large number of examples: eliminating the inheritance tax paid by the wealthiest one percent of families is considered a much higher priority than addressing the suffering of the millions of long-term unemployed; Wall Street’s interest in legalizing gambling in trillions of dollars of “derivatives” was considered way more important than protecting the integrity of the financial system and the interests of middle-income home buyers. It’s a long list.

Almost every group organized to promote and protect the “public interest” has been backpedaling and on the defensive. By sharp contrast, when a coalition of powerful special interests sets out to manipulate U.S. policy, their impact can be startling — and the damage to the true national interest can be devastating.

In 2002, for example, the feverish desire to invade Iraq required convincing the American people that Saddam Hussein was somehow responsible for attacking the United States on September 11th, 2001, and that he was preparing to attack us again, perhaps with nuclear weapons. When the evidence — the “facts” — stood in the way of that effort to shape the public mind, they were ridiculed, maligned and ignored. Behind the scenes, the intelligence was manipulated and the public was intentionally deceived. Allies were pressured to adopt the same approach with their publics. A recent inquiry in the U.K. confirmed this yet again. “We knew at the time that the purpose of the dossier was precisely to make a case for war, rather than setting out the available intelligence,” Maj. Gen. Michael Laurie testified. “To make the best out of sparse and inconclusive intelligence, the wording was developed with care.” Why? As British intelligence put it, the overthrow of Saddam was “a prize because it could give new security to oil supplies.”

That goal — the real goal — could have been debated on its own terms. But as Bush administration officials have acknowledged, a truly candid presentation would not have resulted in sufficient public support for the launching of a new war. They knew that because they had studied it and polled it. So they manipulated the debate, downplayed the real motive for the invasion, and made a different case to the public — one based on falsehoods.

And the “referee” — the news media — looked the other way. Some, like Fox News, were hyperactive cheerleaders. Others were intimidated into going along by the vitriol heaped on any who asked inconvenient questions. (They know it; many now acknowledge it, sheepishly and apologetically.)

 

Senators themselves fell, with a few honorable exceptions, into the same two camps. A few weeks before the United States invaded Iraq, the late Robert Byrd — God rest his soul — thundered on the Senate floor about the pitiful quality of the debate over the choice between war and peace: “Yet, this Chamber is, for the most part, silent — ominously, dreadfully silent. There is no debate, no discussion, no attempt to lay out for the nation the pros and cons of this particular war. There is nothing.”

The chamber was silent, in part, because many senators were somewhere else — attending cocktail parties and receptions, largely with special-interest donors, raising money to buy TV ads for their next campaigns. Nowadays, in fact, the scheduling of many special-interest fundraisers mirrors the schedule of votes pending in the House and Senate.

By the time we invaded Iraq, polls showed, nearly three-quarters of the American people were convinced that the person responsible for the planes flying into the World Trade Center Towers was indeed Saddam Hussein. The rest is history — though, as Faulkner wrote, “The past is never dead. It’s not even past.” Because of that distortion of the truth in the past, we are still in Iraq; and because the bulk of our troops and intelligence assets were abruptly diverted from Afghanistan to Iraq, we are also still in Afghanistan.

In the same way, because the banks had their way with Congress when it came to gambling on unregulated derivatives and recklessly endangering credit markets with subprime mortgages, we still have almost double-digit unemployment, historic deficits, Greece and possibly other European countries teetering on the edge of default, and the threat of a double-dip recession. Even the potential default of the United States of America is now being treated by many politicians and too many in the media as yet another phony wrestling match, a political game. Are the potential economic consequences of a U.S. default “real”? Of course they are! Have we gone completely nuts?

We haven’t gone nuts — but the “conversation of democracy” has become so deeply dysfunctional that our ability to make intelligent collective decisions has been seriously impaired. Throughout American history, we relied on the vibrancy of our public square — and the quality of our democratic discourse — to make better decisions than most nations in the history of the world. But we are now routinely making really bad decisions that completely ignore the best available evidence of what is true and what is false. When the distinction between truth and falsehood is systematically attacked without shame or consequence — when a great nation makes crucially important decisions on the basis of completely false information that is no longer adequately filtered through the fact-checking function of a healthy and honest public discussion — the public interest is severely damaged.

That is exactly what is happening with U.S. decisions regarding the climate crisis. The best available evidence demonstrates beyond any reasonable doubt that the reckless spewing of global-warming pollution in obscene quantities into the atmospheric commons is having exactly the consequences long predicted by scientists who have analyzed the known facts according to the laws of physics.

The emergence of the climate crisis seems sudden only because of a relatively recent discontinuity in the relationship between human civilization and the planet’s ecological system. In the past century, we have quadrupled global population while relying on the burning of carbon-based fuels — coal, oil and gas — for 85 percent of the world’s energy. We are also cutting and burning forests that would otherwise help remove some of the added CO2 from the atmosphere, and have converted agriculture to an industrial model that also runs on carbon-based fuels and strip-mines carbon-rich soils.

The cumulative result is a radically new reality — and since human nature makes us vulnerable to confusing the unprecedented with the improbable, it naturally seems difficult to accept. Moreover, since this new reality is painful to contemplate, and requires big changes in policy and behavior that are at the outer limit of our ability, it is all too easy to fall into the psychological state of denial. As with financial issues like subprime mortgages and credit default swaps, the climate crisis can seem too complex to worry about, especially when the shills for the polluters constantly claim it’s all a hoax anyway. And since the early impacts of climatic disruption are distributed globally, they masquerade as an abstraction that is safe to ignore.

These vulnerabilities, rooted in our human nature, are being manipulated by the tag-team of Polluters and Ideologues who are trying to deceive us. And the referee — the news media — is once again distracted. As with the invasion of Iraq, some are hyperactive cheerleaders for the deception, while others are intimidated into complicity, timidity and silence by the astonishing vitriol heaped upon those who dare to present the best evidence in a professional manner. Just as TV networks who beat the drums of war prior to the Iraq invasion were rewarded with higher ratings, networks now seem reluctant to present the truth about the link between carbon pollution and global warming out of fear that conservative viewers will change the channel — and fear that they will receive a torrent of flame e-mails from deniers.

Many politicians, unfortunately, also fall into the same two categories: those who cheerlead for the deniers and those who cower before them. The latter group now includes several candidates for the Republican presidential nomination who have felt it necessary to abandon their previous support for action on the climate crisis; at least one has been apologizing profusely to the deniers and begging for their forgiveness.

“Intimidation” and “timidity” are connected by more than a shared word root. The first is designed to produce the second. As Yeats wrote almost a century ago, “The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.”

Barack Obama’s approach to the climate crisis represents a special case that requires careful analysis. His election was accompanied by intense hope that many things in need of change would change. Some things have, but others have not. Climate policy, unfortunately, is in the second category. Why?

First of all, anyone who honestly examines the incredible challenges confronting President Obama when he took office has to feel enormous empathy for him: the Great Recession, with the high unemployment and the enormous public and private indebtedness it produced; two seemingly interminable wars; an intractable political opposition whose true leaders — entertainers masquerading as pundits — openly declared that their objective was to ensure that the new president failed; a badly broken Senate that is almost completely paralyzed by the threat of filibuster and is controlled lock, stock and barrel by the oil and coal industries; a contingent of nominal supporters in Congress who are indentured servants of the same special interests that control most of the Republican Party; and a ferocious, well-financed and dishonest campaign poised to vilify anyone who dares offer leadership for the reduction of global-warming pollution.

In spite of these obstacles, President Obama included significant climate-friendly initiatives in the economic stimulus package he presented to Congress during his first month in office. With the skillful leadership of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and committee chairmen Henry Waxman and Ed Markey, he helped secure passage of a cap-and-trade measure in the House a few months later. He implemented historic improvements in fuel-efficiency standards for automobiles, and instructed the Environmental Protection Agency to move forward on the regulation of global-warming pollution under the Clean Air Act. He appointed many excellent men and women to key positions, and they, in turn, have made hundreds of changes in environmental and energy policy that have helped move the country forward slightly on the climate issue. During his first six months, he clearly articulated the link between environmental security, economic security and national security — making the case that a national commitment to renewable energy could simultaneously reduce unemployment, dependence on foreign oil and vulnerability to the disruption of oil markets dominated by the Persian Gulf reserves. And more recently, as the issue of long-term debt has forced discussion of new revenue, he proposed the elimination of unnecessary and expensive subsidies for oil and gas.

 

But in spite of these and other achievements, President Obama has thus far failed to use the bully pulpit to make the case for bold action on climate change. After successfully passing his green stimulus package, he did nothing to defend it when Congress decimated its funding. After the House passed cap and trade, he did little to make passage in the Senate a priority. Senate advocates — including one Republican — felt abandoned when the president made concessions to oil and coal companies without asking for anything in return. He has also called for a massive expansion of oil drilling in the United States, apparently in an effort to defuse criticism from those who argue speciously that “drill, baby, drill” is the answer to our growing dependence on foreign oil.

The failure to pass legislation to limit global-warming pollution ensured that the much-anticipated Copenhagen summit on a global treaty in 2009 would also end in failure. The president showed courage in attending the summit and securing a rhetorical agreement to prevent a complete collapse of the international process, but that’s all it was — a rhetorical agreement. During the final years of the Bush-Cheney administration, the rest of the world was waiting for a new president who would aggressively tackle the climate crisis — and when it became clear that there would be no real change from the Bush era, the agenda at Copenhagen changed from “How do we complete this historic breakthrough?” to “How can we paper over this embarrassing disappointment?”

Some concluded from the failure in Copenhagen that it was time to give up on the entire U.N.-sponsored process for seeking an international agreement to reduce both global-warming pollution and deforestation. Ultimately, however, the only way to address the climate crisis will be with a global agreement that in one way or another puts a price on carbon. And whatever approach is eventually chosen, the U.S. simply must provide leadership by changing our own policy.

Yet without presidential leadership that focuses intensely on making the public aware of the reality we face, nothing will change. The real power of any president, as Richard Neustadt wrote, is “the power to persuade.” Yet President Obama has never presented to the American people the magnitude of the climate crisis. He has simply not made the case for action. He has not defended the science against the ongoing, withering and dishonest attacks. Nor has he provided a presidential venue for the scientific community — including our own National Academy — to bring the reality of the science before the public.

Here is the core of it: we are destroying the climate balance that is essential to the survival of our civilization. This is not a distant or abstract threat; it is happening now. The United States is the only nation that can rally a global effort to save our future. And the president is the only person who can rally the United States.

Many political advisers assume that a president has to deal with the world of politics as he finds it, and that it is unwise to risk political capital on an effort to actually lead the country toward a new understanding of the real threats and real opportunities we face. Concentrate on the politics of re-election, they say. Don’t take chances.

All that might be completely understandable and make perfect sense in a world where the climate crisis wasn’t “real.” Those of us who support and admire President Obama understand how difficult the politics of this issue are in the context of the massive opposition to doing anything at all — or even to recognizing that there is a crisis. And assuming that the Republicans come to their senses and avoid nominating a clown, his re-election is likely to involve a hard-fought battle with high stakes for the country. All of his supporters understand that it would be self-defeating to weaken Obama and heighten the risk of another step backward. Even writing an article like this one carries risks; opponents of the president will excerpt the criticism and strip it of context.

But in this case, the President has reality on his side. The scientific consensus is far stronger today than at any time in the past. Here is the truth: The Earth is round; Saddam Hussein did not attack us on 9/11; Elvis is dead; Obama was born in the United States; and the climate crisis is real. It is time to act.

Those who profit from the unconstrained pollution that is the primary cause of climate change are determined to block our perception of this reality. They have help from many sides: from the private sector, which is now free to make unlimited and secret campaign contributions; from politicians who have conflated their tenures in office with the pursuit of the people’s best interests; and — tragically — from the press itself, which treats deception and falsehood on the same plane as scientific fact, and calls it objective reporting of alternative opinions.

All things are not equally true. It is time to face reality. We ignored reality in the marketplace and nearly destroyed the world economic system. We are likewise ignoring reality in the environment, and the consequences could be several orders of magnitude worse. Determining what is real can be a challenge in our culture, but in order to make wise choices in the presence of such grave risks, we must use common sense and the rule of reason in coming to an agreement on what is true.

 

So how can we make it happen? How can we as individuals make a difference? In five basic ways:

First, become a committed advocate for solving the crisis. You can start with something simple: Speak up whenever the subject of climate arises. When a friend or acquaintance expresses doubt that the crisis is real, or that it’s some sort of hoax, don’t let the opportunity pass to put down your personal marker. The civil rights revolution may have been driven by activists who put their lives on the line, but it was partly won by average Americans who began to challenge racist comments in everyday conversations.

Second, deepen your commitment by making consumer choices that reduce energy use and reduce your impact on the environment. The demand by individuals for change in the marketplace has already led many businesses to take truly significant steps to reduce their global-warming pollution. Some of the corporate changes are more symbolic than real — “green-washing,” as it’s called — but a surprising amount of real progress is taking place. Walmart, to pick one example, is moving aggressively to cut its carbon footprint by 20 million metric tons, in part by pressuring its suppliers to cut down on wasteful packaging and use lower-carbon transportation alternatives. Reward those companies that are providing leadership.

Third, join an organization committed to action on this issue. The Alliance for Climate Protection (climateprotect.org), which I chair, has grassroots action plans for the summer and fall that spell out lots of ways to fight effectively for the policy changes we need. We can also enable you to host a slide show in your community on solutions to the climate crisis — presented by one of the 4,000 volunteers we have trained. Invite your friends and neighbors to come and then enlist them to join the cause.

Fourth, contact your local newspapers and television stations when they put out claptrap on climate — and let them know you’re fed up with their stubborn and cowardly resistance to reporting the facts of this issue. One of the main reasons they are so wimpy and irresponsible about global warming is that they’re frightened of the reaction they get from the deniers when they report the science objectively. So let them know that deniers are not the only ones in town with game. Stay on them! Don’t let up! It’s true that some media outlets are getting instructions from their owners on this issue, and that others are influenced by big advertisers, but many of them are surprisingly responsive to a genuine outpouring of opinion from their viewers and readers. It is way past time for the ref to do his job.

Finally, and above all, don’t give up on the political system. Even though it is rigged by special interests, it is not so far gone that candidates and elected officials don’t have to pay attention to persistent, engaged and committed individuals. President Franklin Roosevelt once told civil rights leaders who were pressing him for change that he agreed with them about the need for greater equality for black Americans. Then, as the story goes, he added with a wry smile, “Now go out and make me do it.”

To make our elected leaders take action to solve the climate crisis, we must forcefully communicate the following message: “I care a lot about global warming; I am paying very careful attention to the way you vote and what you say about it; if you are on the wrong side, I am not only going to vote against you, I will work hard to defeat you — regardless of party. If you are on the right side, I will work hard to elect you.”

Why do you think President Obama and Congress changed their game on “don’t ask, don’t tell?” It happened because enough Americans delivered exactly that tough message to candidates who wanted their votes. When enough people care passionately enough to drive that message home on the climate crisis, politicians will look at their hole cards, and enough of them will change their game to make all the difference we need.

This is not naive; trust me on this. It may take more individual voters to beat the Polluters and Ideologues now than it once did — when special-interest money was less dominant. But when enough people speak this way to candidates, and convince them that they are dead serious about it, change will happen — both in Congress and in the White House. As the great abolitionist leader Frederick Douglass once observed, “Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did, and it never will.”

What is now at risk in the climate debate is nothing less than our ability to communicate with one another according to a protocol that binds all participants to seek reason and evaluate facts honestly. The ability to perceive reality is a prerequisite for self-governance. Wishful thinking and denial lead to dead ends. When it works, the democratic process helps clear the way toward reality, by exposing false argumentation to the best available evidence. That is why the Constitution affords such unique protection to freedom of the press and of speech.

The climate crisis, in reality, is a struggle for the soul of America. It is about whether or not we are still capable — given the ill health of our democracy and the current dominance of wealth over reason — of perceiving important and complex realities clearly enough to promote and protect the sustainable well-being of the many. What hangs in the balance is the future of civilization as we know it.

This story is from Rolling Stone issue 1134/1135, available on newsstands and through Rolling Stone All Access on June 24, 2011.

IPCC estuda geoengenharia para minimizar aquecimento (Carbono Brasil)

JC e-mail 4286, de 24 de Junho de 2011

Talvez motivada pela lentidão das negociações climáticas, entidade sugere que cientistas avaliem possibilidades para refletir os raios solares e até o depósito de ferro nos oceanos para estimular o crescimento de algas que absorvam o CO².

O jornal britânico The Guardian teve acesso a documentos do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas da ONU (IPCC) destinados para os cientistas que formam o grupo de trabalho em geoengenharia da entidade e revelou que utilizar essa opção para lidar com as mudanças climáticas está sendo considerada com seriedade.

O grupo de cientistas se reúne na próxima semana em Lima, no Peru, e tem como principal objetivo fornecer sugestões para os governos de quais tecnologias de geoengenharia seriam mais eficientes e seguras.

Entre as propostas que o IPCC pede para serem avaliadas estão: Dispersar aerossóis de enxofre na estratosfera para refletir parte dos raios solares de volta para o espaço; Depositar grandes quantidades de ferro nos oceanos para o crescimento de algas que absorvam o CO²; Realizar a bioengenharia de culturas agrícolas para que tenham uma cor que reflita os raios solares; Suprimir a formação de nuvens do tipo cirrus, que agem acentuando o efeito estufa.

De acordo com o The Guardian, outras medidas que podem ser estudadas são a dispersão de partículas de água do mar nas nuvens para que reflitam os raios solares, a pintura de branco das estradas e telhadas em todo o mundo e diferentes maneiras de capturar e armazenar os gases do efeito estufa.

Apesar das ideias parecerem ficção científica, algumas delas já foram inclusive tiradas do papel. No começo de 2009, um navio de pesquisas alemão carregado com 20 toneladas de sulfato de ferro partiu em direção à Antártica com o objetivo de injetar o material no fundo do oceano. A operação acabou sendo suspensa no último momento pelo governo alemão que atendeu aos pedidos da comunidade internacional.

Realizar projetos de geoengenharia sempre levantou muita polêmica, tanto que em 2010 a Convenção sobre Diversidade Biológica (CDB) aprovou uma moratória desse tipo de iniciativa. Entretanto, a moratória permite a continuidade de estudos em pequena escala em circunstâncias controladas.

Mesmo a Sociedade Americana de Meteorologia (AMS), entidade que defende o uso da geoengenharia, alerta que ainda são necessários muitos estudos antes que seja feita qualquer alteração de grande porte nos sistemas terrestres.

“O potencial para ajudar a sociedade, assim como os riscos de consequências inesperadas, exigem mais pesquisas, regulamentações e transparência nas iniciativas”, ressalta a instituição.

Contrários até mesmo a continuidade de estudos sobre o assunto, 125 grupos ambientais e de direitos humanos de 40 países, incluindo a Friends of the Earth International e a Via Campesina, entregaram uma carta nesta semana para o presidente do IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, alertando que a entidade não tem competência para avaliar a opção da geoengenharia.

“Perguntar a um grupo de cientistas que trabalham com geoengenharia se é preciso fazer mais pesquisas sobre o assunto é igual perguntar se um urso quer mel”, afirma a carta. Segundo os ambientalistas, essa não é uma questão apenas cientifica, é política.

A geoengenharia voltou a ganhar força depois que foi registrado que em 2010 as emissões bateram um novo recorde histórico, apesar de todas as promessas dos governos mundiais. De acordo com a Agência Internacional de Energia, o ano passado registrou a emissão de 30,6 gigatoneladas de dióxido de carbono.

Além disso, o ritmo das negociações internacionais está muito lento, tornando praticamente impossível que seja criado um acordo climático global nos próximos meses.

A própria presidente da Convenção-Quadro da ONU sobre Mudanças Climáticas (UNFCCC), Christiana Figueres, afirmou que talvez seja preciso adotar tecnologias mais radicais para conter o aquecimento em no máximo 2°C e evitar as piores consequências das mudanças climáticas.

“Estamos nos colocando em uma situação onde precisaremos utilizar métodos mais drásticos para retirar as emissões da atmosfera”, concluiu Figueres.

IPCC aprimora rigor científico e estratégias de comunicação (FAPESP)

POLÍTICA DE C & T
Em clima de diálogo

Carlos Fioravanti
Edição Impressa 184 – Junho 2011

Dos Andes para a Amazônia: bactérias da bartonelose se espalham. © EDUARDO CESAR

O Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) está em fase de reformulação. Deve ampliar o rigor científico com que sua equipe de cientistas tem trabalhado e se tornar mais sensível às inquietações de negociadores internacionais como Sir John Beddington, conselheiro científico chefe do governo do Reino Unido (ver entrevista). No dia 11 de maio, o primeiro de um workshop do Programa FAPESP de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais (PFPMCG), Beddington alertou para as consequências provavelmente dramáticas das mudanças do clima, da urbanização, da escassez de alimentos e de água no mundo. Dois dias depois, 13 de maio, em Abu Dabi, capital dos Emirados Árabes Unidos, os líderes do IPCC anunciaram que adotarão as recomendações sobre mudanças de métodos de trabalho e estratégias de comunicação propostas pelo InterAcademy Council (IAC), que embasam as mudanças em curso.

Em abril de 2010 as Nações Unidas, que mantêm o IPCC, tinham pedido ao IAC para formar um comitê independente de revisão dos procedimentos do IPCC, que havia perdido credibilidade após a divulgação de uma série de mensagens eletrônicas indicando que algumas previsões sobre os efeitos das alterações climáticas tinham sido precipitadas. Uma delas era que as geleiras do Himalaia desapareceriam até 2035. “Os erros, embora pequenos, tiveram um efeito imenso”, observou para Pesquisa FAPESP Robbert Dijkgraaf, membro do IAC, presidente da Academia Real Holandesa de Ciências e Artes e professor da Universidade de Amsterdã, Holanda. “Eles deveriam ter sido corrigidos imediatamente, mas o IPCC não achava que havia necessidade de comunicação ou de explicações, já que as medidas que apresentavam eram consensuais.”

Dijkgraaf acompanhou o trabalho do comitê do IAC, que reuniu 12 especialistas de academias de ciências e conselhos de pesquisa de diversos países, entre os quais o Brasil, representado por Carlos Henrique de Brito Cruz, diretor científico da FAPESP. “Os dirigentes do IPCC aceitaram a maioria de nossas recomendações e sugestões”, comentou o economista Harold Shapiro, professor e ex-reitor da Universidade Princeton, nos Estados Unidos, e coordenador do comitê.

As recomendações do comitê do IAC sugerem mudanças na governança e no gerenciamento, nos métodos de revisão do trabalho científico, na caracterização e na comunicação das incertezas científicas e nas estratégias de comunicação. “Qualquer organização precisa se rever, de tempos em tempos, porque os tempos mudam”, disse Shapiro para Pesquisa FAPESP. O comitê do IAC sugeriu que o presidente do IPCC tenha apenas um mandato e que todo o enfoque de trabalho seja revisto a cada quatro ou seis anos.

O IAC sugeriu que o IPCC explicitasse mais claramente os modos pelos quais os documentos técnicos serão revisados, apresentasse uma variedade maior de visões científicas, incluindo aquelas sujeitas a controvérsias. Outro ponto relevante: explicitar as incertezas científicas. “O IPCC e os cientistas do clima devem reconhecer mais claramente o que sabem e também o que não sabem”, disse Dijkgraaf. Outra recomendação seguida à risca: implementar uma estratégia de comunicação que enfatize a transparência e respostas rápidas e satisfatórias a qualquer interessado. “O IPCC deve se tornar mais interativo e os cientistas do clima, mais críticos do que fazem.”

Colaborações – Na abertura do workshop do Programa FAPESP de Pesquisa em Mudanças Climáticas Globais (PFPMCG), Shaun Quegan, pesquisador da Universidade de Sheffield, Reino Unido, comentou: “As estimativas anuais de áreas desmatadas em florestas tropicais são precisas e altamente confiáveis, pelo menos no Brasil”. No entanto, acrescentou, “a utilização desses dados para avaliar as emissões de carbono provenientes de mudanças de uso do solo traz grandes incertezas, principalmente porque o mapeamento da biomassa das florestas é precário”. O objetivo do encontro era estimular a integração entre as equipes dos vários projetos de pesquisa que compõem o PFPMCG, agora coordenado por Reynaldo Luiz Victoria, pesquisador da Universidade de São Paulo, que substituiu o climatologista Carlos Nobre.

Em uma das apresentações do segundo dia, o médico Manuel Cesario, pesquisador da Universidade de Franca (Unifran), relatou seu estudo sobre disseminação de doenças infecciosas na Amazônia – ampliadas pelas mudanças no uso da terra promovidas pelo asfaltamento de estradas, pelo desmatamento e pela urbanização – e as alterações do clima na América do Sul. Pesquisadores da Universidade de São Paulo, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina e Fundação Oswaldo Cruz participam desse trabalho.

Cesario acredita que a bartonelose, doença de origem bacteriana com sintomas semelhantes aos da malária, antes restrita a regiões dos Andes de 500 a 3.200 metros de altitude, pode ter se expandido geograficamente e se adaptado a regiões mais baixas na esteira da crescente migração e das alterações climáticas. A seu ver, essa doença, detectada pela primeira vez em 2004 na região de Madre de Dios, sudeste do Peru, pode passar facilmente pela fronteira com o Acre, no Brasil, e com Pando, na Bolívia. As cidades dessa região estão cada vez mais interligadas pelo prolongamento da rodovia BR-317: a Rodovia Interoceânica, também chamada de Estrada do Pacífico, já em operação e quase toda asfaltada.

A leishmaniose também avança. “As duas formas de leishmaniose, a visceral e a cutânea, no Brasil, eram doenças associadas ao desmatamento, transmitidas por vetores tipicamente de florestas, mas hoje estão ligadas à urbanização e ao desmatamento”, disse. A bartonelose e a leishmaniose são transmitidas por insetos do gênero Lutzomyia, abundantes na região. Em 2008 Cesario e sua equipe percorreram o município de Assis Brasil e, para capturar insetos, instalavam armadilhas das seis da noite às seis da manhã. Em uma semana coletaram mais de 3 mil insetos de 56 espécies de Lutzomyia. “As casas com frestas, próximas à floresta e com animais de criação por perto”, disse ele, “formam o ambiente ideal para os insetos que saem de seus espaços naturais e usam restos de material orgânico para se reproduzir e animais para sugar o sangue, aproximando-se das pessoas e transmitindo as doenças”.

Código Florestal como foi aprovado na Câmara poderá agravar mudanças climáticas, alertam cientistas do IPCC (Agência Brasil, JC)

JC e-mail 4268, de 30 de Maio de 2011.

De acordo com os pesquisadores, a versão do Código Florestal aprovada pela Câmara compromete as metas internacionais assumidas pelo País para diminuir emissão de gases de efeito estufa.

Quatro dos cientistas brasileiros que fazem parte do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC, na sigla em inglês), da Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU), alertaram para o possível agravamento sobre o clima com a entrada em vigência da atual versão do Código Florestal aprovada pela Câmara. Segundo eles, o aumento da pressão sobre as áreas de florestas comprometerá os compromissos internacionais firmados em 2009 pelo Brasil na Conferência de Copenhague, de diminuir em até 38,9% a emissão de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) e reduzir em 80% o desmatamento na Amazônia até 2020.

Os cientistas, que são ligados à Coordenação de Programas de Pós-Gradução de Engenharia da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (Coppe-UFRJ), falaram sobre o assunto durante um seminário que abordou as conclusões de um relatório do IPCC sobre energias renováveis, realizado na última quinta-feira (26).

Para a cientista Suzana Kanh, as posições internacionais assumidas pelo País serão prejudicadas, se o Senado não mudar o texto do código aprovado pela Câmara ou se a presidenta da República, Dilma Rousseff, não apresentar vetos. “O impacto do código é muito grande, na medida em que o Brasil tem a maior parte do compromisso de redução de emissão ligada à diminuição do desmatamento. Qualquer ação que fragilize esse combate vai dificultar bastante o cumprimento das metas brasileiras”, afirmou.

A cientista alertou que haverá mudanças climáticas imediatas no Brasil e na América do Sul com o aumento da derrubada de florestas para abrir espaço à agricultura e à pecuária, como vem ocorrendo no Cerrado e na Amazônia. “Com o desmatamento, há o aumento da liberação de carbono para a atmosfera, afetando o microclima, influindo sobre o regime de chuvas e provocando a erosão do solo, prejudicando diretamente a população”.

O cientista Roberto Schaeffer, professor de planejamento energético da Coppe, disse que a entrada em vigor do Código Florestal, como aprovado pelos deputados, poderá prejudicar o investimento que o País faz em torno dos biocombustíveis, principalmente a cana, como fontes de energia limpa. “Hoje os biocombustíveis são entendidos como uma das alternativas para lidar como mudanças climáticas. No momento em que o Brasil flexibiliza as regras e perdoa desmatadores, isso gera desconfiança sobre a maneira como o biocombustível é produzido no País e se ele pode reduzir as emissões [de GEE] como a gente sempre falou”, disse.

O geógrafo Marcos Freitas, que também faz parte do IPCC, considerou que o debate em torno do código deveria ser mais focado no melhor aproveitamento do solo, principalmente na revitalização das áreas degradadas. “O Brasil tem 700 mil quilômetros quadrados de terra que já foi desmatada na Amazônia, e pelo menos dois terços é degradada. Se o código se concentrasse nessa terra já seria um ganho, pois evitaria que se desmatasse o restante. A área de floresta em pé é a que preocupa mais. Pois a tendência, na Amazônia, é a expansão da pecuária com baixa rentabilidade”, afirmou.

Para ele, haverá impactos no clima da região e do País, se houver aumento na devastação da floresta decorrente do novo código. “Isso é preocupante, porque a maior emissão [de GEE] histórica do Brasil, em nível global, tem sido o uso do solo da Amazônia, que responde por cerca de 80% de nossas emissões. Nas últimas conferências [climáticas], nós saímos bem na foto, apresentando cenários favoráveis à redução no desmatamento na região. Agora há uma preocupação de que a gente volte a níveis superiores a 10 mil quilômetros quadrados por ano”.

A possibilidade de um retrocesso ambiental, se mantida a decisão da Câmara sobre o código, também foi apontada pelo engenheiro Segen Estefen, especialista em impactos sobre os oceanos. “Foi decepcionante o comportamento do Congresso, uma anistia para quem desmatou. E isso é impunidade. Uma péssima sinalização dos deputados sobre a seriedade na preservação ambiental. Preponderou a visão daqueles que têm interesse no desmatamento. Isso sempre é muito ruim para a imagem do Brasil”, disse.

O diretor da Coppe, Luiz Pinguelli, enviou uma carta à presidenta Dilma, sugerindo que ela vete parte do código, se não houver mudanças positivas no Senado. Secretário executivo do Fórum Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas, Pinguelli alertou para a dificuldade do país de cumprir as metas internacionais, se não houver um freio à devastação ambiental.

“O problema é o aumento do desmatamento em alguns estados, isso é um mau sinal. Com a aprovação do código, poderemos estar favorecendo essa situação. Seria possível negociar, beneficiando os pequenos agricultores. Mas o que passou é muito ruim”, afirmou Pinguelli, que mantém a esperança de que o Senado discuta com mais profundidade a matéria, podendo melhorar o que foi aprovado na Câmara.

(Agência Brasil – 28/5)

Ordem no caos (FAPESP)

31/05/2011

Por Elton Alisson

Pesquisadores desenvolvem modelo teórico para explicar e determinar as condições para a ocorrência de sincronização isócrona em sistemas caóticos. Estudo pode levar à melhoria de sistemas como o de telecomunicações.

Agência FAPESP – Na natureza, enxames de vaga-lumes enviam sinais luminosos uns para os outros. Isso é feito inicialmente de forma autônoma, individual e independente e, sob determinadas circunstâncias, pode dar origem a um fenômeno robusto de natureza coletiva chamado sincronização. Como resultado, milhares de vaga-lumes piscam em uníssono, de forma ritmada, emitindo sinais luminosos em sincronia com os demais.

Há pouco mais de 20 anos se descobriu que a sincronização também ocorre em sistemas caóticos – sistemas complexos de comportamento imprevisível nas mais variadas áreas, como economia, clima ou agricultura. Outra descoberta mais recente foi que a sincronização resiste a atrasos na propagação de sinais emitidos.

Nessas situações, sob determinadas circunstâncias, a sincronização pode emergir em sua forma isócrona, isto é, com atraso zero. Isso significa que equipamentos como osciladores estão perfeitamente sincronizados no tempo, mesmo recebendo sinais atrasados dos demais. Entretanto, os modelos teóricos desenvolvidos para explicar o fenômeno não levaram esse fato em consideração até o momento.

Uma nova pesquisa realizada por cientistas do Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica (ITA) e do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (Inpe) resultou em um modelo teórico para demonstrar como a sincronização ocorre quando há atraso na emissão e no recebimento de informação entre osciladores caóticos.

Os resultados do estudo, que podem ser utilizados para aprimorar sistemas tecnológicos, foram publicados em abril no periódico Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical.

Durante o estudo, os pesquisadores buscaram explicar a sincronização quando há atraso no recebimento da informação entre os osciladores caóticos. O objetivo é determinar as condições sob as quais o fenômeno ocorre em sistemas reais.

“Utilizando a teoria da estabilidade de Lyapunov-Krasovskii, que trata do problema da estabilidade em sistemas dinâmicos, estabelecemos critérios de estabilidade que, a partir de parâmetros como o tempo de atraso no recebimento das informações entre os osciladores, permitem determinar se os osciladores entrarão em estado de sincronização isócrona”, disse um dos autores do artigo, José Mario Vicensi Grzybowski, à Agência FAPESP.

“Foi a primeira demonstração de forma totalmente analítica da estabilidade da sincronização isócrona. Não há similares na literatura”, afirmou Grzybowski, que realiza trabalho de doutorado em engenharia eletrônica e computação no ITA com Bolsa da FAPESP.

As descobertas do estudo poderão possibilitar o aprimoramento de sistemas tecnológicos baseados em sincronização, especialmente em sistemas de telecomunicação baseados em caos.

Além disso, entre as possíveis aplicações estão os satélites em formação de voo, em que um precisa manter uma distância relativa adequada em relação aos outros e, ao mesmo tempo, estabelecer um referencial (sincronização) que permita o intercâmbio de informações, coleta e combinação eletrônica de imagens oriundas dos diversos satélites da formação.

“Nesse caso, o referencial pode ser estabelecido por meio de um fenômeno que emerge naturalmente desde que as condições apropriadas sejam proporcionadas, diminuindo ou até dispensando o uso de algoritmos”, disse.

Redes complexas naturais

Veículos aéreos não tripulados, que podem explorar uma determinada região em conjunto, além de robôs e sistemas de controle distribuídos, que também precisam trabalhar de forma coordenada em uma rede, podem utilizar os resultados da pesquisa.

Os autores do estudo também pretendem fazer com que o fenômeno da sincronização ocorra em sistemas tecnológicos sem a necessidade de existir um líder que oriente a forma como os outros agentes osciladores devem se comportar.

“Pretendemos eliminar a figura do líder e fazer com que a sincronização ocorra em função da interação entre os agentes, como ocorre com uma espécie de vaga-lumes na Ásia, que entra em sincronização sem que um deles lidere”, disse Elbert Einstein Macau, pesquisador do Inpe e outro autor do estudo, do qual participou também Takashi Yoneyama, do ITA.

Segundo eles, nessa pesquisa foi analisada a sincronização com um atraso de tempo na transmissão da informação entre dois osciladores. Mas no trabalho que desenvolvem atualmente os resultados serão expandidos para uma rede de osciladores de modo a ampliar a escala do problema, e de sua solução.

Dessa forma, segundo eles, será possível modelar fenômenos baseados na sincronização isócrona em escala de rede e contemplar fenômenos naturais que apresentam nível de complexidade muitas vezes superior.

“Em princípio, qualquer fenômeno real que se baseia na sincronização isócrona poderá ser tratado a partir desses elementos teóricos, que podem servir para projetos de redes tecnológicas, ou para analisar e compreender comportamentos emergentes em redes naturais, mesmo naquelas em que não temos formas de influir diretamente”, disse Grzybowski.

O artigo Stability of isochronal chaos synchronization (doi:10.1088/1751-8113/44/17/175103) pode ser lido em http://iopscience.iop.org/1751-8121/44/17/175103/pdf/1751-8121_44_17_175103.pdf

Confronting the ‘Anthropocene’ (N.Y. Times)

May 11, 2011, 9:39 AM
By ANDREW C. REVKIN
N.Y. Times, Dot Earth

NASA. Donald R. Pettit, an astronaut, took this photograph of London while living in the International Space Station.

LONDON — I’m participating in a one-day meeting at the Geological Society of London exploring the evidence for, and meaning of, the Anthropocene. This is the proposed epoch of Earth history that, proponents say, has begun with the rise of the human species as a globally potent biogeophysical force, capable of leaving a durable imprint in the geological record.

This recent TEDx video presentation by Will Steffen, the executive director of the Australian National University’s Climate Change Institute, lays out the basic idea:

There’s more on the basic concept in National Geographic and from the BBC. Paul Crutzen, the Nobel laureate in chemistry who, with others, proposed the term in 2000, and Christian Schwägerl, the author of “The Age of Man” (German), described the value of this new framing for current Earth history in January in Yale Environment 360:

Students in school are still taught that we are living in the Holocence, an era that began roughly 12,000 years ago at the end of the last Ice Age. But teaching students that we are living in the Anthropocene, the Age of Men, could be of great help. Rather than representing yet another sign of human hubris, this name change would stress the enormity of humanity’s responsibility as stewards of the Earth. It would highlight the immense power of our intellect and our creativity, and the opportunities they offer for shaping the future. [Read the rest.]

I’m attending because of a quirky role I played almost 20 years ago in laying the groundwork for this concept of humans as a geological force. A new paper from Steffen and three coauthors reviewing the conceptual and historic basis for the Anthropocene includes an appropriately amusing description of my role:

Biologist Eugene F. Stoermer wrote: ‘I began using the term “anthropocene” in the 1980s, but never formalized it until Paul [Crutzen] contacted me’. About this time other authors were exploring the concept of the Anthropocene, although not using the term. More curiously, a popular book about Global Warming, published in 1992 by Andrew C. Revkin, contained the following prophetic words: ‘Perhaps earth scientists of the future will name this new post-Holocene period for its causative element—for us. We are entering an age that might someday be referred to as, say, the Anthrocene [sic]. After all, it is a geological age of our own making’. Perhaps many readers ignored the minor linguistic difference and have read the new term as Anthro(po)cene!

If you’ve been tracking my work for a while, you’re aware of my focus on the extraordinary nature of this moment in both Earth and human history. As far as science can tell, there’s never, until now, been a point when a species became a planetary powerhouse and also became aware of that situation.

As I first wrote in 1992, cyanobacteria are credited with oxygenating the atmosphere some 2 billion years ago. That was clearly a more profound influence on a central component of the planetary system than humans raising the concentration of carbon dioxide 40 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. But, as far as we know, cyanobacteria (let alone any other life form from that period) were neither bemoaning nor celebrating that achievement.

It was easier to be in a teen-style resource binge before science began to delineate an edge to our petri dish.

We no longer have the luxury of ignorance.

We’re essentially in a race between our potency, our awareness of the expressed and potential ramifications of our actions and our growing awareness of the deeply embedded perceptual and behavioral traits that shape how we do, or don’t, address certain kinds of risks. (Explore “Boombustology” and “Disasters by Design” to be reminded how this habit is not restricted to environmental risks.)

This meeting in London is two-pronged. It is in part focused on deepening basic inquiry into stratigraphy and other branches of earth science and clarifying how this human era could qualify as a formal chapter in Earth’s physical biography. As Erle C. Ellis, an ecologist at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, put it in his talk, it’s unclear for the moment whether humanity’s impact will be long enough to represent an epoch, or will more resemble “an event.” Ellis’s presentation was a mesmerizing tour of the planet’s profoundly humanized ecosystems, which he said would be better described as “anthromes” than “biomes.”

Ellis said it was important to approach this reality not as a woeful situation, but an opportunity to foster a new appreciation of the lack of separation of people and their planet and a bright prospect for enriching that relationship. In this his views resonate powerfully with those of Rene Dubos, someone I’ll be writing about here again soon.

Through the talks by Ellis and others, it was clear that the scientific effort to define a new geological epoch, while important, paled beside the broader significance of this juncture in human history.

In my opening comments at the meeting, I stressed the need to expand the discussion from the physical and environmental sciences into disciplines ranging from sociology to history, philosophy to the arts.

I noted that while the “great acceleration” described by Steffen and others is already well under way, it’s entirely possible for humans to design their future, at least in a soft way, boosting odds that the geological record will have two phases — perhaps a “lesser” and “greater” Anthropocene, as someone in the audience for my recent talk with Brad Allenby at Arizona State University put it.

I also noted that the term “Anthropocene,” like phrases such as “global warming,” is sufficiently vague to guarantee it will be interpreted in profoundly different ways by people with different world views. (As I explained, this is as true for Nobel laureates in physics as it is for the rest of us.)

Some will see this period as a “shame on us” moment. Others will deride this effort as a hubristic overstatement of human powers. Some will argue for the importance of living smaller and leaving no scars. Others will revel in human dominion as a normal and natural part of our journey as a species.

A useful trait will be to get comfortable with that diversity.

Before the day is done I also plan on pushing Randy Olson’s notion of moving beyond the “nerd loop” and making sure this conversation spills across all disciplinary and cultural boundaries from the get-go.

There’s much more to explore of course, and I’ll post updates as time allows. You might track the meeting hash tag, #anthrop11, on Twitter.

Scientist says listen to pope on climate change (U.S. Catholic)

Thursday, May 12, 2011
By Online Editor
Guest blog post by Dan DiLeo

Religion and science comes together in urging action on climate change.

The Pontifical Academy of Sciences sees climate change as an urgent matter, member Veerabhadran (Ram) Ramanathan, Ph.D., told Dan Misleh, Executive Director of the Catholic Coalition on Climate Change, in an interview on the academy’s report coming out of its meeting at the Vatican April 2-4, 2011.

While written, public reports are not the norm following such meetings, the working group was motivated by a sense of the urgency of the issue and the adverse social, political, economic and ecological impacts of climate change, said Ramanathan, who is the co-chair of the working group that produced the report and has been a member of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences since 2004. He is also Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences and Director of the National Science Foundation funded Center for Clouds, Chemistry, and Climate at Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

The Vatican’s recent report focuses on the impacts to humans due to global glacier retreat—one of the most obvious indicators of anthropogenic climate change. Ramanathan noted that climate change is already being experienced by many, especially in developing countries, and is likely to continue unless significant global actions to curtail human produced greenhouse gases are not begun soon.

Ramanathan said the working group focused glaciers and not other climate change impacts for three reasons: These impacts have not been sufficiently studied and discussed; shrinking glaciers offer the most visible example of how climate change is adversely affecting the planet; and the disappearance of mountain glaciers—which act as huge freshwater reservoirs for billions of people especially in Central Asia—could have catastrophic impacts.

Throughout his remarks, Ramanathan echoed the church’s call to exercise prudence in confronting climate change, confirming that the grave—and potentially irreversible—nature of climate change impacts obligate action based on what we already know now. He also emphasized the crucial role which the church must continue to play in the face of climate change: while the science community can present the facts, it is the church which has the moral authority necessary to inspire individuals and institutions to change environmentally—and socially—destructive patterns of behaviors.

Ramanathan also shared his personal inspiration for working on the issue of climate change, and in particular the contribution of black carbon. Growing up in a village in India, he saw how the burning of biomass not only created tremendous air pollution but also severely impacted the health of his family. The experience helped him see the interconnectedness of health, poverty, and environment, and reaffirmed that individual choices can have widespread affects—both positive and negative.

Ramanathan closed by noting that if the world’s more than 1 billion Catholics chose to heed the Holy Father and address climate change as a matter of faith, their individual actions and choices would go a long way in caring for God’s good gift of Creation and the poor who are most impacted by environmental degradation.

Dan DiLeo is Project Manager for the Catholic Coalition on Climate Change.

Could Carbon Labeling Combat Climate Change? (Scientific American)

Experts argue that carbon labeling might promote energy efficiency and other efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
By Joey Peters and ClimateWire | May 9, 2011

Some experts argue that revealing the carbon content of appliances and other items might help combat climate change. Image: Federal Trade Commission.

While large-scale efforts to curb greenhouse gases aren’t likely to happen in the near future, advocates are thinking of smaller ways to reduce emissions in the meantime.

Recently, Vanderbilt University professor Michael Vandenbergh and two others proposed the idea of voluntarily labeling carbon footprints on products in the journal Nature Climate Change.

“We know from other areas of labeling that labels do have some effect on behavior,” said Vandenbergh, an environmental law professor and director of the Climate Change Research Network. “They don’t drive all behavior but are certainly effective.”

He’s quick to point out that private measures like this can’t solve climate change alone but says they still help. Vandenbergh estimates it could take years before any type of international cap-and-trade system fully develops. Any emissions between now and whenever, or if ever, that happens will likely stick around for a long time. “The emissions we don’t reduce now will be in the atmosphere for a long time. This is a measure that would help fill the gap,” Vanderbergh said.

The paper, written with Thomas Dietz at Michigan State University and Paul Stern at the National Research Council, doesn’t precisely identify a label. It does, however, cite one by the London-based Carbon Trust, which certifies items in the United Kingdom like potato chips and hand dryers by adding up their amount of greenhouse gas emissions in kilograms.

But what’s lacking is an internationally recognized certification encompassing a broad range of products.

Developing a label
Vandenbergh envisions a nonprofit or non-governmental organization developing a label of this type, similar to what the Marine Stewardship Council does for fish. MSC has certifications for fish caught wild and fisheries that are sustainable. Although not mandatory, the labels have caught on in grocery stores. Walmart Canada recently pledged to sell only MSC-certified fish by 2013.

Another example he points to is the dolphin-safe label on tuna, explaining that it was very hard to sell without the label once controversies over tuna fisheries harming and sometimes killing dolphins became known. Other labels, like nutrition ones, for example, have had mixed results. Green labels also sometimes leave out things. Recent carbon footprint calculations of Brazilian beef left out the amount of deforestation caused by raising the cattle, according to a study in Environmental Science and Technology.

Vandenberg admits labeling isn’t perfect. “It’s likely there are weaknesses in this system,” he said. “The question is whether it’s viable as an alternative. And if government can’t act and we are getting some sustainability as result of that step, then it’s important.”

Apart from the Carbon Trust label, organizations like Toronto-based CarbonCounted and Bethesda, Md.-based CarbonFund.org have also developed carbon certifications.

In Madison, Wis., one organization is attempting to develop a smartphone application that scans food products to reveal their carbon footprints. The technology is there for it. The information is not.

Not enough information to work with
To develop the app, SnowShoeFood CEO Claus Moberg worked with three University of Wisconsin graduate students to find all the carbon footprint information they could on two brands of locally made ice cream.

“It’s taken us four months and a lot of legwork to assemble our best bet of a carbon footprint for the two types of ice cream,” Moberg said. And he still doesn’t think what they ended up with is enough to be acceptable in an academic evaluation of a food item’s carbon footprint. “It’s almost impossible to do this as an outsider,” he added.

If food companies made all carbon footprint data of their items available, the SnowShoe app would be able to rank them from smallest carbon footprints to largest. But until they come forward, it can’t.

Food manufacturers need to be shown that releasing such information would bring more benefits than costs, Moberg said. He’s optimistic that such a thing will happen, pointing to carbon labeling trends in Europe as a positive sign.

In the meantime, SnowShoe is promoting its “True Local” application, which can scan items to tell if they originated in Wisconsin or not. For now, it works at Fresh Madison Market, but he’s in talks with other groceries around the area.

The “True Local” app is a small start, but it may lead the way for this kind of labeling. With it, manufacturers will be able to tell which items are scanned and which are bought. Such consumer actions are hard to correlate with a simple label on a can.

But Vandenberg contends that buying locally is not enough, and the type of labels he envisions would have a wide range of factors considered. In the case of local vs. imported food, it’s important to look into the energy used to raise or grow it on top of the energy used to import it, he said. Another example he brings up is buying fresh vegetables in season versus buying vegetables raised in a hothouse.

Vandenburg adds that some items might be better for labeling than others. He’s currently developing a shortlist of promising products. Food, cars and household supplies come to mind as potential candidates, Vandenberg said, but he hasn’t listed any just yet.

Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from Environment & Energy Publishing, LLC. http://www.eenews.net, 202-628-6500

Is a Human “Here and Now” Bias Clouding Climate Reasoning? (N.Y. Times)

By ANDREW C. REVKIN
N.Y. Times, Dot Earth – May 8, 2011, 7:36 AM

Here’s a “Your Dot” contribution from Jacob Tanenbaum, a computer technology teacher from Tappan, N.Y., who sent the following thoughts after reading “On Birth Certificates, Climate Risk and an Inconvenient Mind“:

Our lack of ability to perceive and react to climate is not just simply a problem rooted in social norms. It goes far deeper into the evolutionary structure of the human mind. We are an animal that evolved over time somewhere in southern Africa. Our minds are set up to quickly and effectively assess an environment and perceive danger in it. This is what Macolm Gladwell calls “thin slicing” and it is very effective in many situations. What we consider higher thought processes appeared far later in our evolutionary path. When we are facing danger, it makes sense that we rely on those higher processes far less than we rely on our “gut instinct” –- those older processes that kept us safe for so much longer in our species’ history. So how does this help us understand our reactions to something like climate?

Consider this:

1. Once we are accustomed to something, change is very difficult. An animal that understands its environment can pick out subtle changes that indicate danger more effectively. An animal in new environment perceives difference, and so danger, everywhere it looks. Our reaction to climate must involve significant change in how we live our lives. This is difficult for any animal. Even us.

2. Our understanding of danger is event driven. The presence of a predator, or a fire or a storm or flood are all events. Climate is not an event, it is a trend. Weather is an event. To understand climate, you must suspend the belief that what you see outside your window is all that can be a threat to you. To understand climate you must look at the numbers over a long time and a large geographical space. That is how you can “see” a trend. This, unfortunately, may be antithetical to the way that the human animal understands danger since the threat is not immediately in front of us in a way that causes our lower thought processes to perceive a threat, pump us full of adrenalin, and push us to react.

3. Since our understanding of danger is event driven, it makes sense that our understanding of danger is also temporally driven. We are best wired to react to events that are immediate in nature and short in duration. We are wired to react to an event quickly and to make whatever adjustments are needed so that things return to what we perceive as normal. We want a short burst of adrenalin to help us get away from the threat and back to our “comfort zone.” Climate, again, asks us to suspend this part of our understanding of danger and may, again, be antithetical to the way in which we are wired to think about danger. We must react now to avoid a threat that may be several decades away. We must suspend our belief that what we perceive as normal may not be OK. We do, after all, live in an environment that has already undergone change, and our normal way of life is causing that change.

If you couple those facts with a media campaign that encourages denial as well as a media and political structure that largely reflects the way that we are wired and you have a perfect storm. So what we are really being asked to do as a species is evolve. We must evolve the ability to rely on more recent brain constructs, rather than our more primitive ones, to assess and react to danger This means we must evolve in our understanding of danger, of risk, of time, and in our ability control what we have created. But, of course, about half the U.S. does not believe in evolution, so asking us to continue the process may be beyond us. These are the things that keep me up at night.

Tanenbaum’s commentary on climate risk and response, or lack thereof, leads back to the recent Edge.org question: Do we need to bolster our cognitive toolkit?

What’s Missing From Our ‘Cognitive Toolkit’?

By ANDREW C. REVKIN
N.Y. Times, Dot Earth – January 17, 2011, 1:18 PM

This is your brain on words:

It’s clearly a pretty hard-wired system. But can we find ways to use what’s locked in our skulls to better effect? I’ll be writing more soon on that broad question, with a hint of my thoughts provided in a recent Tweet. Some variant on noosphere is clearly nigh.

In the meantime, there’s a rich discussion of aspects of this question on Edge.org, a forum for all manner of minds, curated by the agent and intellectual impressario John Brockman. Once or twice a year since 1998, Edge has tossed provocative questions to variegated batches of scientists, writers, artists and innovators.

Some examples: How is the Internet changing the way you think? What have you changed your mind about? Why? What do you believe is true even though you cannot prove it?

This year’s question, proposed by Steven Pinker and shaped with input from Daniel Kahneman, has been addressed by more than 150 people so far:

What scientific concept would improve everybody’s cognitive toolkit? (The phrase “scientific concept” has a very broad meaning, explained at the link.)

You can read my Edge contribution, centering on a concept I call anthropophilia, below, with links to relevant context added (the Edge format is straight text).

I’m in the early stages of reading the other contributions. There’s much to chew on and enjoy. Here are a few highlights:

Gerd Gigrenzer, a psychologist and director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development, is one of several contributors who focus on the need for broader, and better, appreciation of risk:

[M]any parents are unaware that one million U.S. children have unnecessary CT scans annually and that a full body scan can deliver one thousand times the radiation dose of a mammogram, resulting in an estimated 29,000 cancers per year.

I believe that the answer to modern crises is not simply more laws, more bureaucracy, or more money, but, first and foremost, more citizens who are risk literate. This can be achieved by cultivating statistical thinking. [Read on.]

He seems to be endorsing a notion explored on Dot Earth not long ago — that we find a way to go to “risk school.”

Gary Marcus, an associate professor of psychology at New York University, chooses “cognitive humility,” noting, among other things:

[H]uman beings tend almost invariably to be better at remembering evidence that is consistent with their beliefs than evidence that might disconfirm them. [Read on.]

Helen Fisher, an author and anthropologist at Rutgers University, focuses on the opportunities that would arise from a deeper awareness of the four dimensions that shape a human personality — particularly the “temperament dimension.”

We are capable of acting “out of character,” but doing so is tiring. People are biologically inclined to think and act in specific patterns — temperament dimensions. But why would this concept of temperament dimensions be useful in our human cognitive tool kit? Because we are social creatures, and a deeper understanding of who we (and others) are can provide a valuable tool for understanding, pleasing, cajoling, reprimanding, rewarding and loving others — from friends and relatives to world leaders…. [Read on.]

Maybe there’s a research opportunity in Dot Earth’s comment string — a comparative psychological deconstruction of blog commenters’ character?

Haim Harari, a physicist and former president of the Weizmann Institute of Science, writes of the “edge of the circle” in referring to today’s polarized, and largely nonproductive, policy fights:

Societies, preaching for absolute equality among their citizens, always end up with the largest economic gaps. Fanatic extremist proponents of developing only renewable energy sources, with no nuclear power, delay or prevent acceptable interim solutions to global energy issues, just as much as the oil producers. Misuse of animals in biology research is as damaging as the objections of fanatic animal right groups. One can go on and on with illustrations, which are more visible now than they were a decade or two ago. We live on the verge of an age of extremism… [Read on.]

Jay Rosen, an associate professor of journalism at New York University, provides a nice take on normalizing society’s approach to “wicked” problems. (The climate challenge, as as been discussed here before is “beyond super wicked.) Here’s an excerpt:

If we could designate some problems as wicked we might realize that “normal” approaches to problem-solving don’t work. We can’t define the problem, evaluate possible solutions, pick the best one, hire the experts and implement. No matter how much we may want to follow a routine like that, it won’t succeed. Institutions may require it, habit may favor it, the boss may order it, but wicked problems don’t care.

Presidential debates that divided wicked from tame problems would be very different debates. Better, I think. Journalists who covered wicked problems differently than they covered normal problems would be smarter journalists. Institutions that knew when how to distinguish wicked problems from the other kind would eventually learn the limits of command and control.

Wicked problems demand people who are creative, pragmatic, flexible and collaborative. They never invest too much in their ideas because they know they are going to have to alter them. They know there’s no right place to start so they simply start somewhere and see what happens. They accept the fact that they’re more likely to understand the problem after its “solved” than before. They don’t expect to get a good solution; they keep working until they’ve found something that’s good enough. They’re never convinced that they know enough to solve the problem, so they are constantly testing their ideas on different stakeholders. [Read on.]

Hmm. That last section kind of sounds like Dot Earth, or at least some variant on this process. There’s much, much more to read and discuss.

Edge doesn’t have a comment string, so I encourage you to weigh in here with your own answer to the question and evaluation of others.

As promised, here’s what I wrote for Edge (filed on deadline Friday night):

Anthropophilia

To sustain progress on a finite planet that is increasingly under human sway, but also full of surprises, what is needed is a strong dose of anthropophilia. I propose this word as shorthand for a rigorous and dispassionate kind of self regard, even self appreciation, to be employed when individuals or communities face consequential decisions attended by substantial uncertainty and polarizing disagreement.

The term is an intentional echo of Ed Wilson’s valuable effort to nurture biophilia, the part of humanness that values and cares for the facets of the non-human world we call nature. What’s been missing too long is an effort to fully consider, even embrace, the human role within nature and — perhaps more important still — to consider our own inner nature, as well.

Historically, many efforts to propel a durable human approach to advancement were shaped around two organizing ideas: “woe is me” and “shame on us,” with a good dose of “shame on you” thrown in.

The problem?

Woe is paralytic, while blame is both divisive and often misses the real target. (Who’s the bad guy, BP or those of us who drive and heat with oil?)

Discourse framed around those concepts too often produces policy debates that someone once described to me, in the context of climate, as “blah, blah, blah bang.” The same phenomenon can as easily be seen in the unheeded warnings leading to the most recent financial implosion and the attack on the World Trade Center.

More fully considering our nature — both the “divine and felonious” sides, as Bill Bryson has summed us up — could help identify certain kinds of challenges that we know we’ll tend to get wrong.

The simple act of recognizing such tendencies could help refine how choices are made — at least giving slightly better odds of getting things a little less wrong the next time. At the personal level, I know when I cruise into the kitchen tonight I’ll tend to prefer to reach for a cookie instead of an apple. By pre-considering that trait, I might have a slightly better chance of avoiding a couple of hundred unnecessary calories.

Here are a few instances where this concept is relevant on larger scales.

There’s a persistent human pattern of not taking broad lessons from localized disasters. When China’s Sichuan province was rocked by a severe earthquake, tens of thousands of students (and their teachers) died in collapsed schools. Yet the American state of Oregon, where more than a thousand schools are already known to be similarly vulnerable when the great Cascadia fault off the Northwest Coast next heaves, still lags terribly in speeding investments in retrofitting.

Sociologists understand with quite a bit of empirical backing why this disconnect exists even though the example was horrifying and the risk in Oregon is about as clear as any scientific assessment can be. But does that knowledge of human biases toward the “near and now” get taken seriously in the realms where policies are shaped and the money to carry them out is authorized? Rarely, it seems.

Social scientists also know, with decent rigor, that the fight over human-driven global warming — both over the science and policy choices — is largely cultural. As in many other disputes (consider health care) the battle is between two quite fundamental subsets of human communities — communitarians (aka, liberals) and individualists (aka, libertarians). In such situations, a compelling body of research has emerged showing how information is fairly meaningless. Each group selects information to reinforce a position and there are scant instances where information ends up shifting a position.

That’s why no one should expect the next review of climate science from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to suddenly create a harmonious path forward.

The more such realities are recognized, the more likely it is that innovative approaches to negotiation can build from the middle, instead of arguing endlessly from the edge. The same body of research on climate attitudes, for example, shows far less disagreement on the need for advancing the world’s limited menu of affordable energy choices.

Murray Gell-Mann has spoken often of the need, when faced with multi-dimensional problems, to take a “crude look at the whole” — a process he has even given an acronym, CLAW. It’s imperative, where possible, for that look to include an honest analysis of the species doing the looking, as well.

There will never be a way to invent a replacement for, say, the United Nations or the House of Representatives. But there is a ripe opportunity to try new approaches to constructive discourse and problem solving, with the first step being an acceptance of our humanness, for better and worse.

That’s anthropophilia.

Jesse Ausubel of Rockefeller University has long been fond of saying, “Because the human brain does not change, technology must.”

But many analysts now see the need to consciously intensify efforts to foster innovation — technological, social, and otherwise — to limit regrets in the next few generations.

So far, it’s not clear to me that our existing “cognitive toolkit” has allowed societies to absorb this reality. (A case in point is our “shock to trance” energy policies.)

Whether you embrace Ausubel’s technology imperative or seek ways to shift human values and norms to fit infinite aspirations on a finite planet (or both, as I do), a thorough look in the mirror appears worthwhile.

This leads back the value of the question posed on Edge, and a sustained exploration of the answers.

[Original post here.]

Major reform for climate body (Nature)

Intergovernmental panel aims to become more responsive.

By Quirin Schiermeier
Published online 16 May 2011 | Nature 473, 261 (2011)

IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri faced calls to quit after errors were
found in a key report.

After months of soul-searching, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) has agreed on reforms intended to restore confidence in
its integrity and its assessments of climate science.

Created as a United Nations body in 1988 to analyse the latest
knowledge about Earth’s changing climate, it has worked with thousands
of scientists and shared the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. But its
reputation crumbled when its leadership failed to respond effectively
to mistakes — including a notorious error about the rate of Himalayan
glacier melting — that had slipped into its most recent assessment
report (see Nature 463, 276–277; 2010).

That discovery coincided with the furore over leaked e-mails from the
University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit in Norwich, UK (see
Nature 462, 397; 2009). Some e-mails seemed to show that leading
climate scientists, who had contributed key findings to previous IPCC
reports, had tried to stifle critics. This put the panel — especially
its chairman, Rajendra Pachauri — under intense pressure. The
InterAcademy Council, a consortium of national science academies, was
commissioned to review the structure and procedures of the IPCC and to
suggest improvements to its operations (see Nature 467, 14; 2010).

The council identified the lack of an executive body as a key factor
in the IPCC’s failure to respond to the crisis. It also urged the
panel to improve the transparency of its assessments and to make its
communication and outreach activities more professional. The IPCC
adopted several minor changes at a meeting last October (see Nature
467, 891–892; 2010).

More substantial reforms were signed off last week in Abu Dhabi at a
meeting of delegates from IPCC member states. An executive committee
will be created to oversee the body’s daily operations and to act on
issues that cannot wait for full plenary meetings. The 13-strong
committee will be led by the chairman, and includes the vice-chairs
and co-chairs of its working groups and technical support units.

A new conflict-of-interest policy will require all IPCC officials and
authors to disclose financial and other interests relevant to their
work (Pachauri had been harshly criticized in 2009 for alleged
conflicts of interest.) The meeting also adopted a detailed protocol
for addressing errors in existing and future IPCC reports, along with
guidelines to ensure that descriptions of scientific uncertainties
remain consistent across reports. “This is a heartening and
encouraging outcome of the review we started one year ago,” Pachauri
told Nature. “It will strengthen the IPCC and help restore public
trust in the climate sciences.”

The first major test of these changes will be towards the end of this
year, with the release of a report assessing whether climate change is
increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events. Despite much
speculation, there is scant scientific evidence for such a link —
particularly between climate warming, storm frequency and economic
losses — and the report is expected to spark renewed controversy.
“It’ll be interesting to see how the IPCC will handle this hot potato
where stakes are high but solid peer-reviewed results are few,” says
Silke Beck, a policy expert at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental
Research in Leipzig, Germany.

The IPCC overhaul is not yet complete. Delegates postponed a decision
about the exact terms of office of the group’s chairman and head of
the secretariat. Critics say that these terms should be strictly
limited to the time it takes to produce a single assessment report,
about six or seven years. With no clear decision on that issue,
Pachauri could theoretically remain in office beyond 2014, when the
next full report is due for release.

But the Indian economist says he has not considered staying on that
long. “My job is to successfully complete the next assessment,” he
says. “That’s what I’m solely focused on.”

Read more on climate controversy at: nature.com/climategate

Anthropology and Climate Science Controversies

Brad Walters (Mount Allison U.)
Anthropology News (American Association of Anthropology), vol. 51(5):36-37 (May 2010)

Enormous research effort has been invested in the study of climate change. Many scientists reveled in the acclaim that followed last-year’s awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This year, some of these same scientists have faced an onslaught of criticism as a result of a few mistakes found in published reports of the IPCC and leaked emails from an eminent, UK-based science group that revealed an all-too-human side of the scientific endeavor (so-called “climate-gate”).

The editors of the pre-eminent science journal Nature commented that these supposedly explosive revelations would be laughable were it not for their policy consequences. Like many, they recognize that the real scandal has little to do with climate change science, but everything to do with its political ramifications.

The scientific consensus on climate change is rock solid on the most critical issues: greenhouse gas emissions from human activity are now warming the earth’s climate at a rate that is extremely rapid by historical and recent geological standards and this poses increasingly serious risks our well being (Union of Concerned Scientists, March 2010, “U.S. scientists and economists’ call for swift and deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions,” http://www.ucsusa.org). The evidence for this general conclusion is so broad, diverse and compelling that virtually no reputable scientist doubts it.

Yet, large swaths of the American public and many opinion leaders continue to doubt the reality of climate change. A major reason for this is that the controversies over the credibility of climate science are to a large degree intentionally contrived by people and organizations with vested interests in the economic status-quo and fear of government regulation, particularly members of the oil, gas and coal industries. What we are witnessing today, according to authors James Hoggan and Richard Littlemore (Climate Cover-Up: The Crusade to Deny Global Warming) and George Monbiot (Heat), is a similar but much more ambitious replay of the tobacco industries’ campaign in the 1980s and 1990s to sew doubt about the scientific consensus on the health risks of smoking. These climate deniers understand what many social scientists do: where there is uncertainty in the minds of the electorate, the political cost of inaction falls while the cost of decisive action rises.

These climate controversies raise intriguing questions for anthropologists who may have interests in issues of public knowledge formation, risk perception, and the application of expert and non-expert knowledge in policy making. But, what motivated me to write this column is a different question: do many anthropologists also not trust the credibility of the scientific “experts” on the matter of climate change?

I came to this question as a result of recent exchanges on the Environmental Anthropology (E-Anth) List-serve that revealed a far less solid consensus on the matter than is found within the mainstream climate science community, which is dominated by natural scientists. Specifically, postings by some list members revealed a surprising lack of trust in the credibility of scientific bodies like the IPCC and the National Academy of Sciences. Even more troubling was their referencing of scientifically un-credible sources—climate skeptics’ blogs, for example—as the basis for their opinions on the status of climate science.

Anthropologists are not alone in having within their ranks credentialed scientists who espouse views on climate change that are totally unsupportable in any reasonable scientific sense. But is it possible that anthropologists are particularly vulnerable to this kind of anti-scientific way of thinking about the issue? Has the disciplines’ deep emersion in subjects like the social construction of knowledge produced social scientists with so little trust and respect for the work of natural scientists that they won’t (or can’t!) distinguish between peer-reviewed research and politically-motivated blog postings?

There is a point reached—and we are now well passed it in climate science—where theoretical arguments and empirical evidence are so overwhelmingly compelling that positions contrary to the scientific consensus are simply untenable. Perhaps it is time for the AAA to step-up as a body and officially state their position on this most critical of issues.